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Preventing the diversion of guns to criminals through effective firearm sales laws
... Research on the impact of HPL laws on firearm violence has investigated the relationship between law changes and intermediate outcomes such as diversion of firearms for criminal use (Crifasi et al. 2013;Webster and Vernick 2013) and long-term outcomes such as firearm homicides (Rudolph et al. 2015;Hasegawa et al. 2019;McCourt et al. 2020;Webster et al. 2014), suicides (McCourt et al. 2020Crifasi et al. 2015), and mass shootings (Siegel et al. 2020;Webster et al. 2020). Prohibited individuals most commonly acquire firearms through straw purchases or other sales with private, unlicensed sellers (Braga et al. 2012). ...
... Prohibited individuals most commonly acquire firearms through straw purchases or other sales with private, unlicensed sellers (Braga et al. 2012). From a causal perspective, the robust application and screening process of a HPL law makes illicit firearm acquisition more difficult (Webster and Vernick 2013). A survey of individuals with experience in Baltimore's underground firearm market found 40% of anonymous respondents reported having a more difficult time finding a firearm after the 2013 HPL law adoption (Crifasi et al. 2013). ...
Background
Handgun purchaser licensing (HPL) laws mandate individuals to obtain a license from law enforcement before buying a firearm. Research indicates these laws effectively reduce various forms of fatal firearm violence, including homicides, suicides, and mass shootings. Our study sought to assess the impact of HPL laws on non-fatal firearm violence.
Methods
Utilizing the augmented synthetic control method (ASCM), we estimated the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) resulting from a full repeal of an HPL law in Missouri (2007), a partial repeal in Michigan (2012), and an adoption on HPL law in Maryland (2013) on firearm injury hospitalizations. We utilized RAND's healthcare cost and utilization project-based dataset from 2000 to 2016 for our outcome variable. We conducted in-time placebo testing and leave-one-out donor pool testing as sensitivity analyses.
Results
Maryland’s adoption was associated with a statistically significant 32.3% reduction in firearm-related injury hospitalization (FIH) rates (ATT = − 0.497, standard error (SE) = 0.123); Missouri’s repeal was associated with a statistically significant 35.7% increase in FIH rates (ASCM = 0.456, SE = 0.155); and Michigan’s partial repeal showed no statistically significant associations with FIH rates (ATT = − 0.074, SE = 0.129). Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of the estimated HPL effects.
Discussion
HPL laws appear to be protective against hospitalizations for nonfatal firearm injuries. These findings align with prior research indicating that HPL laws are effective in reducing fatal firearm violence. States without such licensing systems ought to consider these robust policies as a means to address firearm violence.
... Prior research has shown that cities and states that require background checks and record keeping for handgun sales by unlicensed sellers and stricter PTP handgun licensing laws have lower levels of guns being diverted to criminals within a year of retail sale 8 and fewer guns exported to criminals across state borders. 9 A recent study found a cross-sectional association between states having PTP handgun licensing or other forms of universal background check requirements for gun sales and lower homicide rates. 10 Missouri repealed its PTP handgun licensing law effective August 28, 2007. ...
... The evidence that Missouri's increase in firearm homicides was fueled by the state's repeal of its PTP law is bolstered by data indicating that the repeal was immediately followed by a twofold increase in the percentage of crime guns that were recovered by police soon after the guns' retail sales and an unusually large increase in the percentage of Missouri's crime guns that had been purchased from Missouri gun dealers. 9 These finding are consistent with prior research showing that states that regulated handgun sales by unlicensed sellers had fewer guns diverted to criminals shortly after in-state retail sales, 8 and that states with the most comprehensive handgun sales laws including PTP licensing requiring direct interface with law enforcement have proportionately fewer guns used in crime that were originally sold by in-state retailers. 28,29 Having a large percentage of crime guns that originate from out-ofstate sales, as was the case in Missouri prior to the repeal of its PTP law, is indicative of a restricted supply of guns available to criminals from in-state sources. ...
Erratum to: J Urban Health DOI 10.1007/s11524-014-9865-8 The authors would like to publish this erratum to correct estimates generated from regression analyses due to errors identified in the data for certain covariates used in those analyses. The authors apologize that they did not identify the errors prior to publication. The corrected data presented below are very similar to, but are more accurate than, the findings previously published. ABSTRACT 1. The fourth and fifth sentences should be deleted and replaced with, “Using death certificate data available through 2010, the repeal of Missouri’s PTP laws was associated with an increase in the annual firearm homicide rates of 1.18 per 100,000 (+25 %) representing 68 additional firearm homicides annually, but was unrelated to changes in non-firearm homicide rates. Using Uniform Crime Reports data from police available through 2012, the law’s repeal was associated with increased annual murder rates of 0.81 per 100,000 (+14 %) representing 49 additional murders per year.” 2. The last sentence should be deleted. (The corrected data from the prior sentence are integrated into the corrected sentences above.) RESULTS 1. Table 2 should be deleted and replaced with corrected Table 2 below. 2. The last sentence of the third paragraph should be deleted and replaced with, “After controlling for changes in rates of unemployment, poverty, burglary, incarceration, and law enforcement officers along with other state laws, the estimated increase in annual firearm homicide rates associated with the repeal of Missouri’s PTP handgun law was 1.18 per 100,000 population per year (p 3. The last sentence of the 4th paragraph should read, “Regression analyses indicated that Missouri’s repeal of its PTP handgun law was associated with no change in the age-adjusted non-firearm homicide rate (β = −0.07, p = .468, 95 % CI −0.27 to 0.12) and an increase in annual homicide rates for all methods of 1.08 (Table 2, p 4. The last sentence of the 5th paragraph should read, “A model which only controlled for state- and year fixed effects estimated a 1.34 increase in annual murder rates through the end of 2012 associated with the repeal of the PTP handgun law (β = 1.34, p = .001, 95 % CI 0.58 to 2.11); however, the estimated effect of the policy change was reduced to an increase of 0.81 murders per 100,000 per year after all covariates were included in the model (Table 2, β = 0.81, p = .004, 95 % CI 0.26 to 1.35), a 14 % increase relative to the counterfactual.” 5. The second sentence of the 6th paragraph should read, “New unsafe handgun bans adopted in California and Massachusetts were associated with an increase in firearm, non-firearm, and total homicide rates (β = 0.28, p = .014, 95 % CI 0.06 to 0.50; β = 0.19, p = .007, 95 % CI 0.05 to 0.32; β = 0.46, p = .008, 95 % CI 0.13 to 0.70).” 6. Supplemental Tables 1–4 should be replaced with the corrected Supplemental Tables below. DISCUSSION 1. The last sentence of the first paragraph should read, “Our estimates suggest that the repeal of the law was associated with an additional 68 firearm homicides per year in Missouri between 2008 and 2010 and 49 additional murders per year between 2008 and 2012 than the forecasted counterfactual.” Language: en
... This omission hinders the ability of law enforcement to hold a gun owner accountable if he or she transfers a firearm to someone who is prohibited from owning guns. Nearly 8 out of 10 gun crime offenders participating in a national survey of state prison inmates conducted in 2004 reported that they obtained their guns from a friend, family member, or the underground gun market (50). ...
... Nondiscretionary PTP laws that required purchasers to be fingerprinted, other requirements for background checks for private sales, mandatory reporting of theft or loss of firearms, and junk gun bans were also independently associated with fewer guns exported per capita. These analyses controlled for gun ownership, proximity to states with stronger gun laws, borders with Canada or Mexico, and out-of-state migration (50). ...
This article summarizes and critiques available evidence from studies published between 1999 and August 2014 on the effects of policies designed to keep firearms from high-risk individuals in the United States. Some prohibitions for high-risk individuals (e.g., those under domestic violence restraining orders, violent misdemeanants) and procedures for checking for more types of prohibiting conditions are associated with lower rates of violence. Certain laws intended to prevent prohibited persons from accessing firearms-rigorous permit-to-purchase, comprehensive background checks, strong regulation and oversight of gun dealers, and requiring gun owners to promptly report lost or stolen firearms-are negatively associated with the diversion of guns to criminals. Future research is needed to examine whether these laws curtail nonlethal gun violence and whether the effects of expanding prohibiting conditions for firearm possession are modified by the presence of policies to prevent diversion. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health Volume 36 is March 18, 2015. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/catalog/pubdates.aspx for revised estimates.
... Prior research has shown that cities and states that require background checks and record keeping for handgun sales by unlicensed sellers and stricter PTP handgun licensing laws have lower levels of guns being diverted to criminals within a year of retail sale 8 and fewer guns exported to criminals across state borders. 9 A recent study found a cross-sectional association between states having PTP handgun licensing or other forms of universal background check requirements for gun sales and lower homicide rates. 10 Missouri repealed its PTP handgun licensing law effective August 28, 2007. ...
... The evidence that Missouri's increase in firearm homicides was fueled by the state's repeal of its PTP law is bolstered by data indicating that the repeal was immediately followed by a twofold increase in the percentage of crime guns that were recovered by police soon after the guns' retail sales and an unusually large increase in the percentage of Missouri's crime guns that had been purchased from Missouri gun dealers. 9 These finding are consistent with prior research showing that states that regulated handgun sales by unlicensed sellers had fewer guns diverted to criminals shortly after in-state retail sales, 8 and that states with the most comprehensive handgun sales laws including PTP licensing requiring direct interface with law enforcement have proportionately fewer guns used in crime that were originally sold by in-state retailers. 28,29 Having a large percentage of crime guns that originate from out-ofstate sales, as was the case in Missouri prior to the repeal of its PTP law, is indicative of a restricted supply of guns available to criminals from in-state sources. ...
In the USA, homicide is a leading cause of death for young males and a major cause of racial disparities in life expectancy for men. There are intense debate and little rigorous research on the effects of firearm sales regulation on homicides. This study estimates the impact of Missouri's 2007 repeal of its permit-to-purchase (PTP) handgun law on states' homicide rates and controls for changes in poverty, unemployment, crime, incarceration, policing levels, and other policies that could potentially affect homicides. Using death certificate data available through 2010, the repeal of Missouri's PTP law was associated with an increase in annual firearm homicides rates of 1.09 per 100,000 (+23 %) but was unrelated to changes in non-firearm homicide rates. Using Uniform Crime Reporting data from police through 2012, the law's repeal was associated with increased annual murders rates of 0.93 per 100,000 (+16 %). These estimated effects translate to increases of between 55 and 63 homicides per year in Missouri.
... All purchasers are required to first get a license and all sellers, both licensed and private, can only legally sell to someone with a valid license. As a result, these laws provide a more robust system for identifying and screening out prohibited individuals, can deter straw purchasing, or delay impulsive acquisition of a firearm (Crifasi et al. 2017;Webster et al. 2013) all of which can impact the availability of firearms during the commission of a crime or when interacting with law enforcement. Even after controlling for the presence of other firearm laws, our findings are consistent with prior research finding generally harmful effects of lowering standards for concealed carry (Doucette et al. 2022). ...
Background:
Fatal and nonfatal shootings by police are a public health issue that warrants additional research. Prior research has documented associations between fatal shootings by police and gun ownership, legislative strength scores, and lax concealed carry weapons laws. Despite research on other firearm-related outcomes, little is known about the impact of permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws on shootings by police. We generated counts of fatal and nonfatal OIS from the Gun Violence Archive from 2015 to 2020. We conducted cross-sectional regression modeling with a Poisson distribution and robust standard errors. In addition to PTP, we included several state-level policies that may be associated with shootings by police: comprehensive background check only (CBC-only) laws, concealed carry licensing laws, stand your ground laws, violent misdemeanor prohibitions, and extreme risk protection orders (ERPO). We controlled for state-level demographic characteristics and included a population offset to generate incidence rate ratios (IRR).
Findings:
PTP laws were associated with a 28% lower rate in shootings by police [IRR = 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64-0.81]. Shall Issue (IRR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.17-1.53) and Permitless (IRR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.35-1.91) concealed carry laws and CBC-only laws (IRR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.01-1.25) were associated with higher rates of shootings by police. Stand your ground, violent misdemeanor prohibitions, and ERPO laws were not associated with shootings by police.
Conclusions:
Our study found that PTP laws were associated with significantly lower rates of shootings by police. Removing restrictions on civilian concealed carry was associated with significantly higher rates. State-level firearm policies may be a lever to address shootings by police.
... This reinforces previous findings that show increases in crime gun purchases from Missouri gun dealers following the repeal. 13 The proportion own-state gun trace variable test showed significance during the period from 2008-2013 following the repeal compared to before the repeal. However, our estimates were inconclusive for the period for the repeal period from 2008-2019 compared to before the repeal. ...
Firearm-related deaths are a leading cause of death in the United States. Webster et al. (2014) found an association between Missouri’s repeal of a permit-to-purchase handgun licensing law and an increase in firearm-related homicides. The evidence for causality of this association would be strengthened by finding that the increase occurred through the hypothesized mechanism of increasing the ease with which those with violent intent could obtain guns. This study examines two measures: 1) proportion of guns recovered and purchased in-state and 2) time between firearm purchase and recovery by police following criminal use. The repeal was associated from 2008-2019 with a 0.05 increase in the proportion own-state gun trace (p < 0.0001, 95% confidence interval: 0.08,0.13) and a 0.10 increase in the proportion of guns recovered prior to one year after purchase (p = 0.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.20,1.90). Our study provides supportive evidence for the repeal increasing firearm-related homicides.
... 12 After the 2007 repeal of Missouri's handgun purchaser licensing law that also functioned as a point-of-sale CBC law, rates of firearm homicides 13,14 and suicides 12 increased in the state, as did indicators of guns diverted for criminal use. 15 Critics of these studies identified the relatively short periods of postlaw data in Missouri and Connecticut and possible overreliance on Rhode Island as a point of comparison with Connecticut's trends. 16 In this study, we improved on prior analyses of purchaser licensing laws in Connecticut and Missouri and applied similar methods to analyze point-of-sale-only laws in Maryland and Pennsylvania, which adopted typical CBC laws in 1996 and 1995, respectively. ...
Objectives. To estimate and compare the effects of state background check policies on firearm-related mortality in 4 US states.
Methods. Annual data from 1985 to 2017 were used to examine Maryland and Pennsylvania, which implemented point-of-sale comprehensive background check (CBC) laws for handgun purchasers; Connecticut, which adopted a handgun purchaser licensing law; and Missouri, which repealed a similar law. Using synthetic control methods, we estimated the effects of these laws on homicide and suicide rates stratified by firearm involvement.
Results. There was no consistent relationship between CBC laws and mortality rates. There were estimated decreases in firearm homicide (27.8%) and firearm suicide (23.2%–40.5%) rates associated with Connecticut’s law. There were estimated increases in firearm homicide (47.3%), nonfirearm homicide (18.1%), and firearm suicide (23.5%) rates associated with Missouri’s repeal.
Conclusions. Purchaser licensing laws coupled with CBC requirements were consistently associated with lower firearm homicide and suicide rates, but CBC laws alone were not.
Public Health Implications. Our results contribute to a body of research showing that CBC laws are not associated with reductions in firearm-related deaths unless they are coupled with handgun purchaser licensing laws. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print August 20, 2020: e1–e7. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2020.305822)
... Such laws require direct contact with law enforcement, ensure verification of a purchasers' identity, and deters purchases or criminal transactions whereby a firearm is bought on behalf of a disqualified purchaser. Permit-to-purchase laws have been shown to prevent the diversion of guns to criminals and reduce firearm homicide rates (Webster et al., 2009;Webster et al., 2013;Fleegler et al., 2013;Webster et al., 2014;Rudolph et al., 2015). ...
... 37 Permit-to-purchase laws that required fingerprinting and gave law enforcement agencies discretion in issuing permits were associated with 76 percent lower rates of interstate firearm diversion, while fingerprinting absent discretion was associated with 45 percent lower rates. 38 Permit-to-purchase requirements, together with record-keeping requirements for firearm acquisitions, were associated with a decrease in the proportion of crime guns that were first sold by in-state retailers. 21 These results suggest that permit to purchase reduces (or at least complicates) the acquisition of firearms for criminal use. ...
Mandatory background checks on firearm purchasers receive widespread support from the general public and firearm owners. Background checks appear to reduce the risk of violence substantially among prohibited persons whose purchases are denied. However, population-level studies, including studies of comprehensive background check policies, have often shown no clear evidence of benefit. There is one notable exception: Permit-to-purchase policies have consistently been associated with beneficial population-level effects. The findings of no benefit may in part be an artifact of history, as the completeness of the data on which background checks are run has improved substantially since the periods examined by those studies. Nonetheless, significant problems with implementation and design still limit the population-level effectiveness of background check policies. In this article I review nine of these problem areas and suggest actions that could substantially improve the effectiveness of background check policies in preventing firearm-related violence.
... Surveys of Chicago gun offenders also indicated that offenders very rarely steal the guns they used to commit crimes [12]. Data from a nationally representative sample of inmates in state prisons in 2004 found that 10% of those who committed crimes with guns reported that they had stolen the gun they used [13]. While it is still possible that stolen guns end up on the criminal market, it appears that theft of a gun does not usually immediately precede a criminal act with a gun by the thief. ...
Purpose of Review
Firearm-related deaths are a significant source of mortality in the USA. More than 30,000 individuals die annually from firearm-related injuries, including homicide and suicide, in our nation. This review summarizes recent findings on policies designed to prevent illegal acquisition of firearms and their impacts on diversions of guns into underground markets and firearm-related homicide and suicide.
Recent Findings
A significant body of evidence has been produced between 2013 and 2018 demonstrating the effectiveness of laws requiring prospective handgun purchasers to obtain a permit (PTP). The evidence for other types of laws to deter illegal acquisition of firearms is less robust.
Summary
Current research on illegal acquisition and the impact of related policies illustrates that there are policies that effectively reduce diversion and have positive impacts on firearm-related violence. However, there is a paucity of research that use strong study designs and clearly identifies specific policy impacts pertaining to diversion and illegal acquisition of firearms. Future research is needed that further elucidates transactions that facilitate a gun’s entry into an underground market and the role and impact of policies regulating these transactions.
... Our results failed to provide support for our hypothesis that systems designed to prevent the transfer of guns to persons prohibited from having firearms are associated with reductions in IPH. There is mounting evidence, however, that laws requiring prospective firearm purchasers to pass a background check vetted directly by law enforcement under permit-to-purchase licensing laws reduce the diversion of guns to criminals (30,31). Findings from studies of Missouri's repeal and Connecticut's adoption of a permit-to-purchase law suggest that they reduce homicides (32,33). ...
In this research, we estimate the association of firearm restrictions for domestic violence offenders with intimate partner homicides (IPHs) on the basis of the strength of the policies. We posit that the association of firearm laws with IPHs depends on the following characteristics of the laws: 1) breadth of coverage of high-risk individuals and situations restricted; 2) power to compel firearm surrender or removal from persons prohibited from having firearms; and 3) systems of accountability that prevent those prohibited from doing so from obtaining guns. We conducted a quantitative policy evaluation using annual state-level data from 1980 through 2013 for 45 US states. Based on the results of a series of robust, negative binomial regression models with state fixed effects, domestic violence restraining order firearm-prohibition laws are associated with 10% reductions in IPH. Statistically significant protective associations were evident only when restraining order prohibitions covered dating partners (-13%) and ex parte orders (-13%) and included relinquishment provisions (-12%). Laws prohibiting access to those convicted of nonspecific violent misdemeanors were associated with a 23% reduction in IPH rates; there was no association when prohibitions were limited to domestic violence. These findings should inform policymakers considering laws to maximize protections against IPH.
... States with longer duration permits may also require a point of sale background check to ensure that the purchaser has not become prohibited since the issuance of the permit. Prior research has found that PTP laws are associated with reductions in the diversion of guns to criminals [6] and gun homicide [7,8]. ...
Laws related to the sale, use, and carrying of firearms have been associated with differences in firearm homicide rates at the state level. Right-to-carry (RTC) and stand your ground (SYG) laws are associated with increases in firearm homicide; permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws and those prohibiting individuals convicted of violent misdemeanors (VM) have been associated with decreases in firearm homicide. Evidence for the effect of comprehensive background checks (CBC) not tied to PTP is inconclusive. Because firearm homicide tends to concentrate in urban areas, this study was designed to test the effects of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties. We conducted a longitudinal study using an interrupted time series design to evaluate the effect of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties from 1984 to 2015 (N = 136). We used mixed effects Poisson regression models with random intercepts for counties and year fixed effects to account for national trends. Models also included county and state characteristics associated with violence. Homicide was stratified by firearm versus all other methods to test for specificity of the laws’ effects. PTP laws were associated with a 14% reduction in firearm homicide in large, urban counties (IRR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.82–0.90). CBC-only, SYG, RTC, and VM laws were all associated with increases in firearm homicide. None of the laws were associated with differences in non-firearm homicide rates. These findings are consistent with prior research at the state level showing PTP laws are associated with decreased firearm homicide. Testing the effects of PTP laws specifically in large, urban counties strengthens available evidence by isolating the effects in the geographic locations in which firearm homicides concentrate.
... Our results provide some support for our hypothesis that systems designed to prevent the transfer of guns to persons prohibited from having firearms are associated with reductions in IPH. There is mounting evidence that laws requiring prospective firearm purchasers to pass a background check vetted directly by law enforcement under permit-to-purchase licensing laws reduce the diversion of guns to criminals (31,32). Findings from studies of Missouri's repeal and Connecticut's adoption of a permit-to-purchase law suggest that they reduce homicides (33,34). ...
In this research, we estimate the association of firearm restrictions for domestic violence offenders with intimate partner homicides (IPHs), based on the strength of the policies. We posit that the association of firearm laws with IPHs depends on the laws': 1) breadth of coverage of high-risk individuals and situations restricted; 2) power to compel firearm surrender or removal from prohibited persons; and 3) systems of accountability that prevent prohibited persons from obtaining guns. We conducted a quantitative policy evaluation using annual state-level data from 1980 through 2013 for 45 US states. Based on the results of a series of robust negative binomial regression models with state fixed effects, domestic violence restraining order firearm prohibition laws are associated with 9% reductions in IPH. Statistically significant protective associations were evident only when restraining order prohibitions covered dating partners (-10%) and ex parte orders (-12%). Laws prohibiting access to those convicted of non-specific violent misdemeanors were associated with a 23% reduction in IPH rates; there was no association when prohibitions were limited to domestic violence. Permit-to-purchase laws were associated with 10% reductions in IPHs. These findings should inform policymakers considering laws to maximize protections against intimate partner homicide.
... Firearm use is particularly widespread in some cultures, such as in the United States, yet most research into firearm or gun control has been retroactive, that is, discussed in light of past events or tragedies rather than ongoing and pervasive issues. For example, evidence is often provided relative to past bans or protocols (Gius, 2014(Gius, , 2015a(Gius, , 2015bLanza, 2014;Safavi et al., 2014), the relationship between gun ownership and violent crimes (Kleck & Patterson, 1993;Siegel et al., 2014;Siegel, Ross, & King, 2013), or the relationship between gun sales and criminal use (Koper, 2014;Webster, Vernick, McGinty, & Alcorn, 2013). In discussing firearm policy, less discussion centers on the mental processes involved in the act of shooting a firearm, probably because the relationship between cognitive abilities and firearm use is poorly understood. ...
Civilian, police, and military policies about firearms attract significant attention, yet the corresponding discussions tend to focus on retrospective evidence, such as the effectiveness of previous policies or reactions to recent tragedy. Less attention is devoted to proactive research issues. In particular, recent evidence has demonstrated a strong link between shooting performance and cognitive abilities, which provides numerous implications for policy decisions, assessment procedures, and firearm training. One important issue is how the weapon's rate of fire affects performance. Specifically, how does behavior differ when one is using a semiautomatic versus automatic weapon, and which cognitive abilities are most important with each weapon type? Results indicated that participants fired nearly twice as many rounds when armed with automatic versus semiautomatic weapons, yet they showed no difference in successfully neutralizing hostile targets. However, participants were more than twice as likely to inflict civilian casualties with automatic weapons, and different cognitive tasks aligned with the likelihood of inflicting civilian casualties for each specific weapon type. This evidence suggests substantial differences in shooting behavior based on the rate of fire. Furthermore, the cognitive evidence predicted performance regarding hostile casualties and civilian casualties inflicted even when accounting for differences in gender, previous firearm use, and video game experience. This evidence supports the idea that different cognitive mechanisms may underlie different aspects of shooting performance, which could allow for targeted assessments and training based on firearm type.
... PTP laws have been associated with decreased diversion of guns to criminals 15 and lower rates of firearm homicide. 16 Missouri repealed its PTP law in August of 2007. ...
Objective:
To evaluate the impact of state-level policy changes on assaults on law enforcement officers (LEOs) in the USA.
Methods:
Pooled time series and cross-sections with negative binomial regression were used to estimate the impact of state-level changes of right-to-carry (RTC), three-strikes and permit-to-purchase (PTP) handgun laws on fatal and non-fatal assaults of LEOs. LEO assaults were stratified by weapon type (all methods, handgun and non-handgun) and whether or not the assault was fatal. Data were collected from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted database and analysed for the period 1984-2013 for fatal assaults and 1998-2013 for non-fatal assaults.
Results:
RTC laws showed no association with fatal (p>0.4) or non-fatal (p>0.15) assaults on LEOs. Three-strikes laws were associated with a 33% increase in the risk of fatal assaults on LEOs. Connecticut's PTP law was not associated with fatal (p>0.16) or non-fatal (p>0.13) assaults. Missouri's repeal of its PTP legislation was marginally associated with a twofold increased risk of non-fatal handgun assaults (p=0.089).
Conclusions:
This research indicates that three-strikes laws increase the risk of fatal assaults. RTC laws are not associated with increased risk of assault. Missouri's PTP repeal may increase the risk of non-fatal handgun assaults.
... Studies that found that background checks were negatively related to murder include Webster et al. (2014), Fleegler et al. (2013), Webster et al. (2013), Sen and Panjamapirom (2012), Sumner et al. (2008) and Ruddell and Mays (2005). All of these studies were conducted after the Ludwig and Cook's (2000) study. ...
The purpose of the present study was to determine whether firearm background checks are significantly related to gun-related murder rates. The present study differs from prior research in several ways. First, a large longitudinal data-set is used; data for 50 states for the period 1980-2011 are examined. Second, the effects of both federal and state background checks, including state-mandated private sales background checks, are estimated. Finally, a fixed effects model that controls for both state-level and year-specific effects is used. Results suggest that states that require dealer background checks have lower gun-related murder rates than other states. In addition, after implementation of the Brady Act, gun-related murder rates fell. However, the results also suggest that, for the entire period in question, states with private sales background checks had higher gun-related murder rates than states with no such background checks. If one only looks the Brady Act period, however, then the private sales background check variable is insignificant. These results for private sales background checks are novel and contrary to the results of much prior research in this area.
... Ours is one of relatively few studies that have tried to clarify the complex interrelationships between lethal violence, the availability of firearms, and state gun control laws. In addition to those just cited, other examples include Florentine and Crane [35] and articles contributed by Cook and Ludwig [36],Webster and others [37], Swanson and others [38], and Wintemute [39] to Webster and Vernick [17]. However, no previous study, to our knowledge, has documented the extent and persistence of cross-state differences in mortality from violence. ...
... A substantial portion of firearm sales and transfers, however, is not required to go through a federally licensed dealer or a background check requirement; this includes, in most U.S. states, private party sales including those that are advertised on the Internet and those that take place at gun shows where licensed gun dealers who could process background checks are steps away. Some evidence suggests that state policies regulating private handgun sales reduce the diversion of guns to criminals (Vittes, Vernick, & Webster, 2013;Webster et al., 2009;Webster, Vernick, McGinty, & Alcorn, 2013). ...
... A substantial portion of firearm sales and transfers, however, is not required to go through a federally licensed dealer or a background check requirement; this includes, in most U.S. states, private party sales including those that are advertised on the Internet and those that take place at gun shows where licensed gun dealers who could process background checks are steps away. Some evidence suggests that state policies regulating private handgun sales reduce the diversion of guns to criminals (Vittes, Vernick, & Webster, 2013;Webster et al., 2009;Webster, Vernick, McGinty, & Alcorn, 2013). ...
American Psychological Association report on the prevention of gun violence. Available online http://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2013/12/gun-violence.aspx
... In 2010, federal and state agencies conducted 10.4 million background checks; more than 150,000 purchases were denied when background checks found the buyers to be prohibited persons. 11 While background checks and denials appear to reduce risk for subsequent violent and firearm-related crime among those whose purchases are denied, [12][13][14] the Brady Act has been found have no effect on rates of firearm homicide. 15 The Act's requirements, however, do not apply to firearm transfers by unlicensed private parties. ...
Federal and state policies on eligibility to purchase and possess firearms and background check requirements for firearm transfers are undergoing intensive review and, in some cases, modification. Our objective in this third report from the Firearms Licensee Survey (FLS) is to assess support among federally licensed firearms retailers (gun dealers and pawnbrokers) for a background check requirement on all firearm transfers and selected criteria for denying the purchase of handguns based on criminal convictions, alcohol abuse, and serious mental illness. The FLS was conducted by mail during June-August, 2011 on a random sample of 1,601 licensed dealers and pawnbrokers in 43 states who were believed to sell at least 50 firearms annually. The response rate was 36.9 %, typical of establishment surveys using such methods. Most respondents (55.4 %) endorsed a comprehensive background check requirement; 37.5 % strongly favored it. Support was more common and stronger among pawnbrokers than dealers and among respondents who believed that "it is too easy for criminals to get guns." Support was positively associated with many establishment characteristics, including sales of inexpensive handguns, sales that were denied when the purchasers failed background checks, and sales of firearms that were later subjected to ownership tracing, and were negatively associated with sales at gun shows. Support for three existing and nine potential criteria for denial of handgun purchase involving criminal activity, alcohol abuse, and mental illness exceeded 90 % in six cases and fell below 2/3 in one. Support again increased with sales of inexpensive handguns and denied sales and decreased with sales of tactical (assault-type) rifles. In this survey, which was conducted prior to mass shootings in Aurora, Colorado; Oak Creek, Wisconsin; Newtown, Connecticut; and elsewhere, licensed firearm sellers exhibited moderate support for a comprehensive background check requirement and very strong support for additional criteria for denial of handgun purchases. In both cases, support was associated with the intensity of respondents' exposure to illegal activities.
... A bibliometric analysis reported that academic publications on guns and violence fell by 60% between the peak year of 1996 and 2010 (Mayors Against Illegal Guns 2013). A small cohort of researchers has continued to evaluate new and existing measures such as Saturday-night-special laws , background check systems (Sumner et al. 2008), dealer regulations (Webster et al. 2013), and restrictions aimed at defendants-respondents in domestic violence cases (Zeoli & Frattaroli 2013). Work on the impact of gun control on suicide also continues to accumulate (Lambert & Silva 1998). ...
Legal intervention to influence individual health behavior has increased dramatically since the 1960s. This paper describes the rise of law as a tool of public health, and the scientific research that has assessed and often guided it, with a focus on five major domains: traffic safety, gun violence, tobacco use, reproductive health and obesity. These topical stories illustrate both law’s effectiveness and limitations as a public health tool. They also establish its popularity by the most apt of metrics – the willingness of legislators to enact it. The five examples demonstrate that public health law research can and does influence the development and refinement of legal interventions over time. Measuring the impact of laws can be difficult, but the field has the tools of theory and methods necessary to produce robust results. It is past time for public health research to receive institutional, professional and funding support commensurate with its social importance.
Firearm-related deaths are a leading cause of death in the USA. Webster et al. (2014) found an association between Missouri's repeal of a permit-to-purchase handgun licensing law and an increase in firearm-related homicides. The evidence for causality of this association would be strengthened by finding that the increase occurred through the hypothesized mechanism of increasing the ease with which those with violent intent could obtain guns. This study examines two measures: (1) proportion of guns recovered and purchased in-state and (2) time between firearm purchase and recovery by police following criminal use. The repeal was associated from 2008 to 2019 with a 0.05 increase in the proportion own-state gun trace (p < 0.0001, 95% confidence interval: 0.08,0.13) and a 0.10 increase in the proportion of guns recovered prior to 1 year after purchase (p = 0.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.20, 1.90). Our study provides supportive evidence for the repeal increasing firearm-related homicides.
Despite the devastating effects of firearm violence on individuals, families, and communities, research on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on firearm violence remains at a minimum. Our study contributes to this body of research by estimating the impact of two critical pandemic era timeframes on fatal and nonfatal shooting victimizations in Detroit, Michigan, using an innovative Bayesian Structural Time Series methodology. For each timeframe, we consider the impact of the pandemic era on total shooting victimizations, shooting victimizations that occurred at a residence (or at home), and shooting victimizations that occurred elsewhere. Our findings suggest that the pandemic era contributed to all three types of shooting victimizations in Detroit. We discuss the limitations of our study, along with directions for future research. Overall, we believe that our study underscores the importance of adopting a comprehensive and evidence-based strategy to prevent firearm-related fatalities and injuries.
Underground gun markets can create opportunities for individuals who are prohibited from gun ownership to gain access to guns. Understanding how these individuals obtain guns, and their unsuccessful attempts to get guns, is key to developing interventions that effectively restrict the supply of guns in an underground market. We conducted surveys of criminal justice-involved men (n=195) in Baltimore City about their experiences in the underground gun market, of whom 30% reported having any experience in the underground gun market. More than half of these individuals were unsuccessful in their most recent attempt to obtain a firearm due to cost-or source-related barriers. Over 80% of individuals who did not already have access to a gun but wanted one (31/38) reported wanting to acquire one for safety or protection. Thirty-one percent (18/58) reported there were certain gun shop employees who sell guns off the record or make sales to obvious straw purchasers. Most respondents who had access to firearms had handguns (90%). Individuals reported selling or trading a gun (n=35) for money (69%), drugs (46%), or other guns (23%), or accepting guns as payment for drugs. Although an underground market can facilitate access to firearms, barriers exist that can prevent acquisition by high-risk individuals. Efforts should focus on strategies that increase accountability and restrict the supply of guns in an underground market or those that provide alternatives to gun carrying to feel safe.
Objective
To assess whether there are differences in support for handgun purchaser licensing.
Methods
We used data from four waves of online, national polling on gun policy. To estimate differences in support for licensing across groups, we categorised respondents by whether they personally owned a gun, lived in a state with handgun purchaser licensing or lived in a state regulating private sales without a licensing system.
Results
Eighty-four per cent of adults living in states with licensing supported the policy compared with 74% in states without the law (p<0.001). Seventy-seven per cent of gun owners living in states with licensing supported the policy vs 59% of gun owners in states without licensing (p<0.001).
Conclusions
Support for licensing among gun owners living in states with these laws, many of whom have presumably gone through the process, was much higher than gun owners in states without such laws.
Illegal guns circulating among high‐risk networks represent a threat to the security and well‐being of urban neighborhoods. Research findings reveal that illegal firearms are usually acquired through a variety of means, including theft and diversions from legitimate firearms commerce. Little is known, however, about the underground gun markets supplying the gang and drug networks responsible for a large share of gun violence in U.S. cities. In this article, we take a mixed‐methods approach, combining trace analyses of recovered handguns with ethnographic interviews of high‐risk gun users to develop new insights on the entry of guns into three criminal networks in Boston. We find that guns possessed by Boston gang members are of a different character compared with other crime guns; these guns are more likely to be older firearms originating from New Hampshire, Maine, and I‐95 southern states. The results of our qualitative research reveal that gang members and drug dealers pay inflated prices for handguns diverted by traffickers exploiting unregulated secondary market transactions, with significant premiums paid for high‐caliber semiautomatic pistols. Taken together, these findings provide an analytic portrait of the market for illicit guns among those most proximate to violence, yielding novel empirical, theoretical, and practical insights into the problem of criminal gun access.
In a cross-sectional, panel study, we examined the relationship between state firearm laws and the extent of interstate transfer of guns, as measured by the percentage of crime guns recovered in a state and traced to an in-state source (as opposed to guns recovered in a state and traced to an out-of-state source). We used 2006–2016 data on state firearm laws obtained from a search of selected state statutes and 2006–2016 crime gun trace data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives. We examined the relationship between state firearm laws and interstate transfer of guns using annual data from all 50 states during the period 2006–2016 and employing a two-way fixed effects model. The primary outcome variable was the percentage of crime guns recovered in a state that could be traced to an original point of purchase within that state as opposed to another state. The main exposure variables were eight specific state firearm laws pertaining to dealer licensing, sales restrictions, background checks, registration, prohibitors for firearm purchase, and straw purchase of guns. Four laws were independently associated with a significantly lower percentage of in-state guns: a waiting period for handgun purchase, permits required for firearm purchase, prohibition of firearm possession by people convicted of a violent misdemeanor, and a requirement for relinquishment of firearms when a person becomes disqualified from owning them. States with a higher number of gun laws had a lower percentage of traced guns to in-state dealers, with each increase of one in the total number of laws associated with a decrease of 1.6 percentage points in the proportion of recovered guns that were traced to an in-state as opposed to an out-of-state source. Based on an examination of the movement patterns of guns across states, the overall observed pattern of gun flow was out of states with weak gun laws and into states with strong gun laws. These findings indicate that certain state firearm laws are associated with a lower percentage of recovered crime guns being traced to an in-state source, suggesting reduced access to guns in states with those laws.
This study assesses the impact of Maryland's Firearm Safety Act (FSA) of 2013 on indicators of diversion of handguns to prohibited persons. Interrupted time-series analyses were conducted, and the findings were supplemented by results from a survey of men on parole and probation regarding Baltimore's underground gun market. The FSA was associated with an 82 percent reduction in police recovery of handguns with strong indicators of diversion (IRR=0.18, p=.005). Forty-one percent of survey respondents reported having more difficulty getting a handgun after the FSA because of increased cost, lack of trusted sources, or people less willing to engage in straw purchases on their behalf. These findings are consistent with the theory that the FSA reduces the diversion of handguns into the underground market.
The United States has an enormous public health and safety problem from guns. The number of American civilian gun deaths in the twenty-first century through 2015 is greater than the sum of all US combat deaths in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Given our love affair with guns, the overriding policy goal has to be to reduce the toll of deaths and injuries without substantially reducing the number of civilians with firearms. There are harm reduction lessons to be learned from many public health successes combating other kinds of foreseeable deaths and injuries. For example, motor vehicle deaths per mile driven have fallen more than 85 percent since the 1950s, primarily by making it harder for drivers to make mistakes or behave inappropriately and by reducing the likelihood of severe injury if they do. The success was not primarily due to changing drivers but to making cars and roads safer. The public health approach to guns is to make it difficult rather than easy for violence-prone, anger-prone, or other at-risk people to shoot and kill. Numerous policies and programs could help. Particularly promising ones include changing guns to make them safer, changing the distribution system, increasing gun owner responsibility, and creating a violence prevention administrative agency.
The presence of firearms in the home increases the risk of suicide for residents. As a result, clinicians and professional organizations recommend counseling about temporary removal of firearms from the home of potentially suicidal individuals. In some states, however, firearm laws may affect the ability to easily transfer a gun temporarily to reduce suicide risk. In particular, universal background check (UBC) laws-which require a background check whenever a gun is transferred, even by non-gun dealers-may also apply to temporary transfers intended to reduce suicide risk. Clinicians have previously reported that confusion regarding state firearm laws and uncertainty over the legality of a temporary transfer have affected their ability to effectively counsel patients. We summarize the laws of all 50 states and specifically examine the relevant firearm laws of 3 representative states with UBCs and different approaches-Maryland, Colorado, and California. We identify both helpful and problematic aspects of state laws regarding temporary transfer of firearms. We provide recommendations for amending UBC laws to make it easier for clinicians and patients to temporarily transfer firearms.
This book critically examines the link between guns and violence. It weighs the value of guns for self-protection against the adverse effects of gun ownership and carrying. It also analyses the role of public opinion, the Second Amendment to the US Constitution, and the firearms industry and lobby in impeding efforts to prevent gun violence.
Confronting Gun Violence in America explores solutions to the gun violence problem in America, a country where 90 people die from gunshot wounds every day. The wide-range of solutions assessed include: a national gun licensing system; universal background checks; a ban on military-style weapons; better regulatory oversight of the gun industry; the use of technologies, such as the personalization of weapons; child access prevention; repealing laws that encourage violence; changing violent norms; preventing retaliatory violence; and strategies to rebuild American communities. This accessible and incisive book will be of great interest to students and researchers in criminology and sociology, as well as practitioners and policy-makers with an interest in gun ownership and violence.
Gun violence is a critical public health problem in the United States, but it is rarely at the top of the public policy agenda. The 2012 mass shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, opened a rare window of opportunity to strengthen firearm policies in the United States. In this study, we examine the American public's exposure to competing arguments for and against federal- and state-level universal background check laws, which would require a background check prior to every firearm sale, in a large sample of national and regional news stories (n = 486) published in the year following the Newtown shooting. Competing messages about background check laws could influence the outcome of policy debates by shifting support and political engagement among key constituencies such as gun owners and conservatives. We found that news media messages in support of universal background checks were fact-based and used rational arguments, and opposing messages often used rights-based frames designed to activate the core values of politically engaged gun owners. Reframing supportive messages about background check policies to align with gun owners' and conservatives' core values could be a promising strategy to increase these groups' willingness to vocalize their support for expanding background checks for firearm sales.
In 2013, more than 40,000 individuals died from suicide in the United States. Restricting access to lethal means has the potential to prevent suicide, as suicidal thoughts are often transient. Permit-to-Purchase (PTP) laws for handguns could potentially reduce suicides by making it more difficult for persons at risk of suicide to purchase a handgun. We used a quasi-experimental research design with annual, state-level suicide data to evaluate changes to PTP laws in Connecticut and Missouri. Data were analyzed for 1981-2012. We used synthetic control modeling as the primary method to estimate policy effects. This methodology provided better prediction of pre-PTP-law-change trends in the two states with PTP law changes than econometric models and are thus likely to provide more accurate estimates of policy effects. The synthetic control model estimated a 15.4% reduction in firearm suicide rates associated with Connecticut's PTP law. Missouri's PTP law repeal was associated with a 16.1% increase in firearm suicide rates. Evidence that PTP laws were associated with non-firearm suicide rates was mixed in Connecticut and negative in Missouri. The findings are consistent with prior research linking firearm availability to increased risk of suicide and lower suicide risks to PTP handgun laws.
Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.
We sought to estimate the effect of Connecticut's implementation of a handgun permit-to-purchase law in October 1995 on subsequent homicides.
Using the synthetic control method, we compared Connecticut's homicide rates after the law's implementation to rates we would have expected had the law not been implemented. To estimate the counterfactual, we used longitudinal data from a weighted combination of comparison states identified based on the ability of their prelaw homicide trends and covariates to predict prelaw homicide trends in Connecticut.
We estimated that the law was associated with a 40% reduction in Connecticut's firearm homicide rates during the first 10 years that the law was in place. By contrast, there was no evidence for a reduction in nonfirearm homicides.
Consistent with prior research, this study demonstrated that Connecticut's handgun permit-to-purchase law was associated with a subsequent reduction in homicide rates. As would be expected if the law drove the reduction, the policy's effects were only evident for homicides committed with firearms. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print June 11, 2015: e1-e6. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2015.302703).
Research suggests an overwhelming majority of crime guns were transferred by private sellers before recovery by law enforcement. Unfortunately, most states do not regulate these transactions. This study examines whether analyses of state-level private transfer data could be used to develop interventions to reduce the supply of handguns to violent criminals.
Traced Boston crime handguns first sold at Massachusetts license dealers were matched to state secondhand gun transfer data. Logistic regression and descriptive statistics were used to analyze the characteristics of recovered crime guns and in-state primary and secondary market transaction patterns.
For crime handguns with records of secondary market transactions in Massachusetts, many rapidly move from private transfer to recovery by the police. Unfortunately, important transaction data on the in-state sources of nearly 63% of recovered handguns were not readily available to law enforcement agencies.
Data on private transfers of guns could be used to prevent violent injuries by reducing criminal access. However, the passage of strong private transfer gun laws needs to be accompanied by investments in the vigorous enforcement of reporting requirements.
Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Data from the 2013 survey reprinted from Barry CL, McGinty EE, Vernick JS, Webster DW (2013). After Newton—public opinion on gun policy and mental illness. New England Journal of Medicine 368(12): 1077–81.
The available evidence suggests that more restrictive state firearm sales laws can reduce criminal access to guns. California has firearm-related laws that are more stringent than many other states and regulates its retail firearms dealers to a unique degree. This research seeks to examine the effect of more restrictive state gun laws and regulations on the illegal diversion of guns to criminals.
Survival analyses are used to determine whether state firearm sales laws, particularly California's legal context and regulatory regime, impact the distribution of time-to-crime of recovered firearms in that state relative to other US states.
225 392 traced firearms, where the first retail purchasers and the gun possessors were different individuals, recovered by law enforcement agencies between 2003 and 2006.
The increased stringency of state-level firearms laws and regulations leads to consistently older firearms being recovered. California was associated with the oldest recovered crime guns compared with guns associated with other states. These patterns persisted regardless of whether firearms were first purchased within the recovery state or in another state.
These findings suggest that more restrictive gun sales laws and gun dealer regulations do make it more difficult for criminals to acquire new guns first purchased at retail outlets.
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