Content uploaded by Kesten Green
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Kesten Green on Nov 27, 2015
Content may be subject to copyright.
!"#$%&"#'()*+,$-#./&0)$.&&$
'&-12#34
5#).#+$67$8"##+!"#University*of*South*Australia
97$:'&;$!"-)."&+,!"#University*of*Pennsylvania#
!Ehrenberg7Bass*Ins:tute*at*University*of*South*Australia
$%&'(%)*+%),#-./0+123/#+%#4+('5)1*%6
728'(129'"#:),2;+(%2)
<=#>3%'#<?@A
Slides*available*at*ForPrin.com
G&A$ISF$2015$–$Complex4V13
1
Thursday, 23 July 15
<+$./#$=(2>#$&%$'&-12#3$%&"#'()*+,$-#./&0)
B%),.1&1#C)8'#,+%6#)113/'9#&C)+/0,'D#/'&C+91#)('#
%''9'9#&+#9'),#E2&C#5+/0,'D#0(+F,'/1G#
B1#,+%6#)6+#)1#@HIA#JB(/1&(+%6"#00G<<AK<L<M"#)#('82'E#+;#
&C'#,2&'()&3('#;+3%9#&C)&##5+/0,'D2&.#&'%91#&+N
•reduce#)553()5.#)%9#3%9'(1&)%92%6"#)%9
•increase#5+1&1#)%9#/21&)O'1
P'102&'#&C'#'829'%5'"#;+('5)1&'(1#5+%*%3'#&+#31'#'8'(#
/+('#5+/0,'D#/'&C+91G#
Q'#('82'E'9#&C21#2113'#F.#+(6)%2R2%6#)#JBR#-0'52),#$113'#+%#
Simple*versus*complex*forecas:ngG#Q'#('0+(&#+%#+3(#0)0'(#
2%#&C)ࡁ'#('82'E2%6#&C'#'829'%5'G#
<
2
Thursday, 23 July 15
L
See$
HANDOUT
3
Thursday, 23 July 15
?#=@#A$&%$#31#"@-#+.(2$"#)#("'/
7'82'E'9#03F,21C'9#('1')(5C#;(+/#),,#)(')1#
+;#;+('5)1*%6"#2%5,392%6#&C'#-0'52),#$113'#
0)0'(1S#
@G9'T%'9#12/0,252&.#2%#;+('5)1*%6
<G29'%*T'9#1&392'1#E2&C#'829'%5'#+%#
5+/0)()*8'#)553()5.
LG)11'11'9#92('5*+%),#)%9#'U'5R'#
'829'%5'
=
4
Thursday, 23 July 15
:@-12#$%&"#'()*+,$0#B+#0
-2/0,252&.#2%#;+('5)1*%6#('V32('1#&C)&#)('#all*of*the*
following*are#understood*by*clientsG#
@G#;+('5)1*%6#/'&C+9"
<G#('0('1'%&)*+%#+;#53/3,)*8'#O%+E,'96'"#
LG#(',)*+%1C201#2%#/+9',1"
=G#(',)*+%1C201#)/+%6#/+9',1"#;+('5)1&1"#)%9#
9'5212+%1
A
5
Thursday, 23 July 15
C@+0@+,)
4+3%9#L<#0)0'(1#E2&C#HW#5+/0)(21+%1N#
)M X+%'#+;#&C'#0)0'(1#;+3%9#&C)+/0,'D2&.#
C',0'9#)553()5.
FM :+/0,'D2&.#2%5(')1'9#'((+(#F.#<WY#+%#)8'()6'#
)5(+11#0)0'(1
Z-2/0,'#8'(131#5+/0,'D#;+('5)1*%6N#[C'#'829'%5'\#
E)1#03F,21C'9#2%#JBR#2%#<?@AG#
###############P3'#+3%#0(2%%#B3631&G
]
6
Thursday, 23 July 15
:>--("D$&%$#=@0#+'#$&+$(''>"('D$&%$%&"#'().)$
%"&-$'&-12#3$=)7$)@-12#$-#./&0)
W
7
Thursday, 23 July 15
:@-12@'@.DE$!$'/#'F2@).
:'&"#$./#$%&22&A@+,$&+$($GH.&HIG$)'(2#
Use*of*prior*knowledge*in*forecas:ng*models
@GP+#.+3#O%+E#what#0(2+(#O%+E,'96'#)F+3&#&C'#12&3)*+%#E)1#31'9^
<GP+#.+3#O%+E#how#0(2+(#O%+E,'96'#)F+3&#&C'#12&3)*+%#E)1#31'9^
LG_+E#12/0,.#21#0(2+(#O%+E,'96'#('0('1'%&'9^
Nature*of*the*rela:onships*among*the*model*elements*
JX+%K,2%')(S#`3,*0,25)*8'S#B992*8'S#-2%6,'^M
Nature*of*the*rela:onships*among*models,*forecasts,*and*decisions*
JQ')OS#-&(+%6^M
Explaining*the*forecas:ng*process
$#)/#5+%T9'%&#&C)&#$#5+3,9#'D0,)2%S#&+#&C'#9'5212+%#/)O'(
@G&C'#;+('5)1*%6#/'&C+91
<GC+E#0(2+(#O%+E,'96'#)F+3&#&C'#12&3)*+%#21#('0('1'%&'9#2%#&C'#
;+('5)1*%6#/+9',1
LG&C'#%)&3('#+;#&C'#(',)*+%1C201#)/+%6#&C'#/+9',#','/'%&1
=GC+E#&C'#/+9',1"#;+('5)1&1"#)%9#9'5212+%1#)('#(',)&'9#&+#')5C#+&C'(
I
8
Thursday, 23 July 15
J#-&+)."(*&+E$KL#'.$&%$)@-12@'@.D$=)7$
'&-12#3@.D$@+$'2@-(.#$%&"#'()*+,
$a::#E)(/2%6#),)(/21&1#9+#not#;+('5)1&"#
&C'.#5(')&'#Z15'%)(2+1\#82)#5+/03&'(#12/3,)*+%1
@G-5'%)(2+1#)('N
)G -&+(2'1#)F+3&#ZEC)&#C)00'%'9#2%#&C'#;3&3('\
FG b2)1'9"#1+#&C'.#9+#%+�(+829'#8),29#;+('5)1&1#
Jc('6+(.#d#P3()%"#<??@MG
<G[C'#1&+(2'1#)('#F)1'9#+%#'D0'(&#e396/'%&1G#
B55+(92%6#&+#0(2+(#('1')(5C"#'D0'(&#e396/'%&1#
)F+3&#EC)&#E2,,#C)00'%#2%#complex,*uncertain*
situa:ons*)('#31','11N
)G -''(K135O'(#[C'+(.
FG ['&,+5Of1#<?K.')(#'D0'(2/'%&
H
9
Thursday, 23 July 15
MN66$1"&'#))$&%$'"#(*+,$'2@-(.#$)'#+("@&)$=@($
'&-1>.#"$)@->2(*&+)$@)$enormously*complex
@G >396/'%&1#)('#/)9'#+%#EC))(2)F,'1#&+#
2%5,39'#J'G6G#:g2M"#)%9#'D5,39'#J'G6G#-3%Mh#
<G >396/'%&1#)('#/)9'#+%#&C'#8),3'1#+;#/)%.#
0)()/'&'(1"#)%9#&C'2(#J%+%,2%')(M#(',)*+%1C201
LG B(+3%9#A?"???#6(29#1V3)('1#)('#/+9','9
=G c(29#1V3)('#/+9',1#2%&'()5&
AG `+9',1#)('#)9e31&'9#&+#0(+935'#'D0'5&'9#
+3&03&1
]G b396'&#;+(#5+/03&'(#12/3,)*+%1#21#'%+(/+31
@?
10
Thursday, 23 July 15
8"##+O$!"-)."&+,O$P$:&&+$QRGGST$+&H'/(+,#$
-&0#2$@)$sophis0catedly*simple
@G b)1'9#+%#)%#'D)/2%)*+%#+;#928'(1'#,+%6#
&'/0'()&3('#C21&+(2'1S
<G X+#,+%6K&'(/#&('%9
LG 7'8'(1),1#+%#),,#*/'#15),'1
=G :+((',)&'9#E2&C#1+,)(#5.5,'1#)%9#8)(2)*+%1#2%#
)5*82&.#
AG Q')O,.#5+((',)&'9#E2&C#:g2S
F3&#&'/0'()&3('#5C)%6'1#0('5'9'#:g2#5C)%6'1"#
)%9#C26C#:g2#,'8',1#C)8'#F''%#)11+52)&'9#E2&C#
25'#)6'1G
@@
11
Thursday, 23 July 15
K=@0#+'#$&+$(''>"('D$&%$MN66$1"&U#'*&+)$=)7$
+&H'/(+,#$%&"#'().)$>)@+,$V(02#D$0(.($
['1&1#+;#;+('5)1&1#+8'(#&C'#@IA@K@HWA#;+('5)1*%6#0'(2+9#.2',9'9#AI#
;+('5)1&1#;+(#C+(2R+%1#+;#H@#&+#@??#.')(1G#[C'#'((+(1#+;#&C'1'#$a::#
;+('5)1&1#E'('#@<G]#*/'1#,)(6'(#&C)%#&C+1'#;(+/#&C'#')12,.#3%9'(1&++9#
%+K5C)%6'#/+9',#Jc(''%"#B(/1&(+%6"#d#-++%#<??HMG
@L
:C)(&#;(+/#4+('5)1*%6#c,+F),#:,2/)&'#:C)%6'#J<?@=M
13
Thursday, 23 July 15
\/#$6&-12#3@.D$N#+(2.D
$%#&C'#,)&'#@HW?"#)#('1')(5C#('82'E#;+3%9#&C)&#
5+/0,'D#;+('5)1*%6#/'&C+91#C)(/'9#)553()5.G
$%#&C'#,)&'#@HH?1"#&C'#4+('5)1*%6#a(2%520,'1#a(+e'5&#
9'8',+0'9#@LH#0(2%520,'1#;+(#;+('5)1*%6G#B,,#E'('#
12/0,'#&+#3%9'(1&)%9G
g3(#('5'%.1&'/)*5#('82'E#;)2,'9#&+#T%9#)#12%6,'#
1&39.#1C+E2%6#&C)&#)#5+/0,'D#/'&C+9#E)1#/+('#
)553()&'#&C)%#)#12/0,'(#/'&C+9G
@]
16
Thursday, 23 July 15
\A&$]>#)*&+)$%&"$D&>
QC)�'(5'%&)6'#+;#0)0'(1#)&#&C21#
5+%;'('%5'#0(+0+1'#5+/0,'D#/'&C+91^
QC.#9+'1#&C)&#C)00'%^
#
@W
17
Thursday, 23 July 15
:#0>'#0$^D$'&-12#3@.D
-+/'#'829'%5'#1366'1&1#&C)&#&C'#0+03,)(2&.#+;#
5+/0,'D2&.#/).#F'#93'#&+#2%5'%*8'1N#
J@M('1')(5C'(1#)('#('E)(9'9#;+(#03F,21C2%6#2%#C26C,.#
()%O'9#e+3(%),1"#EC25C#;)8+(#5+/0,'D2&.h
J<M;+('5)1&'(1#5)%#31'#5+/0,'D#/'&C+91#&+#0(+829'#
;+('5)1&1#&C)Ԕ+(	'5212+%K/)O'(1f#0,)%1h#)%9#
JLM;+('5)1&'(1f#5,2'%&1#/).#F'#2/0('11'9#)%9#
(')113('9#F.#2%5+/0('C'%12F2,2&.G#
@I
18
Thursday, 23 July 15
6&+'2>)@&+)
@G#[C+1'#EC+#0(';'(#&C'2(#;+('5)1&1#&+#F'#
)553()&'#1C+3,9#)55'0&#;+('5)1&1#+%,.#;(+/#
12/0,'#'829'%5'KF)1'9#0(+5'93('1G
<G#B,)(/2%6#$a::#&'/0'()&3('#0(+e'5*+%1#)('#
F)1'9#+%#0(+5'93('1#&C)&#)('#&++#5+/0,'D#&+#F'#
&(31&'9G
LG#7)&'#&C'#12/0,252&.#+;#;+('5)1*%6#0(+5'93('1#
31'9#;+(#0(+F,'/1#.+3#)('#2%&'('1&'9#2%#312%6#&C'#
V3'1*+%%)2('#)&S#
12/0,'K;+('5)1*%6G5+/G#
@H
19
Thursday, 23 July 15