Scaling of low flows in Czechia

Abstract

This is the extended abstract related to the poster presentation exhibited during the 6th EGU Leonardo Conference held in Prague in November 2014. Unlike the original version presented in the book of abstracts (available e.g. at http://www.eguleonardo2014.com/abstracts/), this text was improved. Also, the numbers of long memory processes or unit root processes detected were corrected. Moreover, selected references were added since the submission system did not allow them to be shown.

Full text

EGU Leonardo Conference Series on the Hydrological Cycle
6th Leonardo Conference 2014
Book of Abstracts
13–14 November 2014
Prague, Czech Republic
Organized by:
European Geophysical Union
UNESCO FRIEND-Water Program
T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, p.r.i., Prague
Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU)
Vienna University of Technology
Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna

Cite as:
Vizina, A. & Laaha, G. (Eds.) (2014): HYPER Droughts: Hydrological Pre-
cipitation Evaporation Runoff Droughts - Book of Abstracts of the 6th EGU
Leonardo Conference, 13-14 Nov 2014, Prague, Czech Republic, 139 p.

Foreword
The Leonardo Conferences on Earth’s Hydrological Cycle is a well-established
conference series of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) that focuses on top-
ical questions related to water and its interactions with environment and society,
with particular attention for water resources management, flood risk mitigation
and environmental protection. After five conferences around the hydrological
dimensions of remote sensing (Frascati, 2009), catchments (Luxembourg, 2010),
floods (Bratislava, 2011), society and policy (Torino, 2012), and uncertainty
(Kos, 2013), the sixth conference held from 13-14 November 2014 in Prague
(Czech Republic) was dedicated again to a hydrological extreme: hydrological
drought within the various, connected components of the water cycle.
Under the title HYPER Droughts (Hydrological Precipitation – Evaporation
–Runoff Droughts), experts from a broad number of disciplines, including
surface- and groundwater hydrology, climatology and meteorology, (hydro-)ecology
and water quality, geography and history, wood science, water monitoring and
management, and environmental statistics, were brought together to compare
the current status of drought research in these disciplines, and to assess the im-
plications of drought for water resources management.
The conference was organised around the following topics:
1. Drought governing processes including climate and catchment drivers
2. Indices and tools for monitoring and prediction
3. Regional modelling of low flows and droughts
4. Reconstruction of historic and prehistoric droughts (from modelling, doc-
umentary sources and other proxies, such as tree rings)
5. Hydrological change (climate change and human impacts)
6. Drought forecasting (meteorological, hydrological and agricultural perspec-
tives)
7. Drought impacts (ecological and economic)
8. Implications for water management
This volume bundles the abstracts of 2 Leonardo lectures, 4 keynote lectures,
30 oral presentations and 39 poster presentations from over 31 countries which
reflect the international dimension of the low flow and drought topic. Our thanks
go to the organizing committee of the Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague,
1

T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, p.r.i., Prague and the European Low
Flow and Drought group of the UNESCO FRIEND-Water program for making
this event possible.
We hope that the conference will stimulate international cooperation and
initiatives, crossing national boundaries and disciplines and, thereby, will con-
tribute to a better assessment of our water resources under current, past and
future environmental conditions.
Gregor Laaha
Institute of Applied Statistics and Computing
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU)
2

Contents
Anne Van Loon : How to characterise hydrological drought? ........ 27
James Howard Stagge, Daniel G. Kingston, Lena Merete Tallaksen, David
M. Hannah : Climate drivers of regional drought in Europe . . . . 29
Ted Veldkamp, Stephanie Eisner, Yoshihide Wada, Jeroen Aerts Philip Ward
: Sensitivity of stream flow droughts and water scarcity events to
ENSO driven inter-annual climate variability at the global scale . . 31
Michael Stoelzle, Kerstin Stahl, Andreas Morhard, Markus Weiler : Recharge
scenarios to identify controls of catchments’ sensitivity to drought . 33
Miroslav Trnka, : Integrated drought monitoring systems – a tool for drought
research and practical applications ................ 34
John P. Bloomfield, Ben P. Marchant : Characterisation of groundwater drought 35
Simon Parry, Christel Prudhomme, Robert Wilby, Paul Wood : An alterna-
tive definition and characterisation of drought termination ..... 37
Sophie Bachmair, Kerstin Stahl, Jamie Hannaford, Lucy J. Barker, Irene
Kohn, Cecilia Svensson, Maliko Tanguy : Linking drought indicators
with impacts: Insights from a case study in Germany and the UK . 39
Michal Jenicek, Jan Seibert, Massimiliano Zappa, Maria Staudinger, Tobias
Jonas : Influence of seasonal snowpack on summer low flows . . . . 41
Urszula Somorowska : Relationship between groundwater level and NDVI:
summer drought development analysed by in-situ and MODIS-derived
data .............................. 43
Boud Verbeiren, Marijke Huysmans, Sven Vanderhaegen, Frank Canters,
Klaartje Verbeeck, Guy Engelen, Ingrid Jacquemin, Bernard Ty-
chon, George Tsakiris, Harris Vangelis, Okke Batelaan : Differen-
tiating between influencing factors land use and climate to assess
drought effects on groundwater recharge in a temperate context . . 45
Laurie Caillouet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Eric Sauquet, Muriel Haond : Recon-
struction of meteorological droughts in France since 1871 through
the probabilistic downscaling of a global atmospheric reanalysis . . 47
Sandra Karanitsch-Ackerl, Michael Grabner, Franz Holawe, Gregor Laaha :
Tree rings as a tool for reconstructing historic droughts in northeast-
ern Austria ........................... 49
20

Jamie Hannaford John Bloomfield Ian Holman Bettina Lange Ralph Ledbet-
ter Mark McCarthy Tony McEnery Rebecca Pearce Steven Wade :
Developing a multi-disciplinary inventory of UK droughts from the
late 19th century ........................ 51
Petr Maca, Adam Vizina, Stanislav Horacek, Martin Hanel, Ladislav Kas-
parek, Pavel Pech : The analysis of storage discharge relationship for
the identification of low flows on selected watersheds in the Czech
republic ............................. 53
David Haro, Abel Solera, Javier Paredes-Arquiola, Joaquín Andreu : Current
and future drought vulnerability assessment in the Jucar River basin
(Spain) ............................. 55
Christel Prudhomme, : Droughts in the 21st century: a global perspective . 57
Henny A.J. van Lanen, Niko Wanders, Marjolein H.J. van Huijgevoort, Yoshi-
hide Wada, Marcel A. A. Alderlieste : Future hydrological drought
on a global and continental scale: overview and outlook ...... 58
Jean-Philippe Vidal, Eric Sauquet, Claire Magand, Agnès Ducharne, Benoît
Hingray : Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in low
flow projections ......................... 60
Venkatachalam Ramaswamy : Impacts of Anthropogenic Emissions on Hy-
drologic Cycle .......................... 62
Lukas Gudmundsson : Are runoff changes in Europe attributable to anthro-
pogenic climate change? ..................... 63
Marzena Osuch, Joanna Doroszkiewicz, Hadush Kidane Meresa, Renata Ro-
manowicz : Spatio-Temporal Drought Analysis Under Varying Cli-
matic Conditions ........................ 64
Anne Fangmann, Uwe Haberlandt : Statistical Modeling of Low Flow Con-
ditions based on Climatic Indicators ............... 65
Ben Marchant, John Bloomfield, Jon MacKay : Spatial and temporal mod-
elling of UK groundwater droughts using empirical models . . . . . 66
Gaetano Di Franca, Peter Molnar, Paolo Burlando, Antonio Cancelliere :
Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in Switzerland . . . . 68
21

Pierre Nicolle, Raji Pushpalatha, Charles Perrin, Didier François, Dominique
Thiéry, Thibault Mathevet, Matthieu Le Lay, François Besson, Jean-
Michel Soubeyroux, Christian Viel, Fabienne Regimbeau, Vazken
Andréassian, Pascal Maugis, Bénédicte Augeard, Emmanuel Morice :
The PREMHYCE project: a comparative evaluation of hydrological
models for low-flow simulation and forecasting on French catchments 70
Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Rohini Kumar : Trade-Offs between dy-
namical and statistical forecasting of the European 2003 Drought . 72
Brunella Bonaccorso, Antonino Cancelliere, Giuseppe Rossi : Investigating
The Potential Contribution Of Teleconnection Indices To Forecast
Short Term Drought Class Transitions In Sicily (italy) ...... 74
Kerstin Stahl, Irene Kohn, Lucia De Stefano, Lena M. Tallaksen, Francisco
M.C. Castro Rego, Dionysis Assimacopoulos, Antonio Massarutto,
Sonia I. Seneviratne, Henny H.A.J. van Lanen : An impact perspec-
tive on pan-European drought sensitivity ............. 75
Petr Paril, Světlana Zahrádková, Marek Polášek, Vít Syrovátka, Michal Straka,
Lenka Šikulová, Denisa Němejcová, Pavla Řezníčková : BIODROUGHT
project – developing effective tools for retrospective bioindication
of dry episodes in stream history and selection of watersheds with
drought risk using aquatic macroinvertebrates .......... 76
Noémie Neverre, Patrice Dumas : Assessing future droughts economic losses
with generic hydroeconomic modelling .............. 78
Lena M. Tallaksen : Low flow and drought in Europe - lessons from the past 80
Klaus Haslinger : Droughts and low flows in present and future climate –
pacing the path between climatology and hydrology ........ 82
Mark D. Svoboda : National Drought Mitigation Center Drought Services:
Collaborations Towards a Global Drought Early Warning and Infor-
mation System ......................... 83
David Haro, Abel Solera, Javier Paredes-Arquiola, Joaquín Andreu : Multi-
sectorial Partnerships for drought management and mitigation. The
experience of the Jucar River Basin (Spain) ............ 84
22

Jürgen Vogt A. de Jager, D. Magni, L. Valentini, F. Micale, C. Cammalleri,
G. Sepulcre, C. Lavaysse, S. Russo, P. Barbosa, J. Spinoni : Towards
a comprehensive drought information system for Europe ...... 86
Erik Tijdeman, Kerstin Stahl, Sophie Bachmair, Jamie Hannaford : Drought
Duration Curves: A method to quantify continental differences in
hydrological droughts ...................... 88
Miriam Fendekova, Marian Fendek : The influence of catchment parameters
on drought occurrence in the Tatra Mts., Slovakia ......... 90
Blaz Kurnik : An assessment of actual evapotranspiration and soil water
deficit in agricultural regions in Europe .............. 91
Ye Su, Jakub Langhammer, Jana Kaiglova, Jerker Jarsjö : Response of simple
stream hydro-chemical indicators to rainfall-runoff events in forest
disturbed basins in upper Vydra, Central Sumava Mountains . . . 92
Franziska Gaupp : Identifying a global drought structure using the copula
methodology .......................... 94
Ji Yae Shin, Jiyoung Yoo, Minsung Kwon, Tae-Woong Kim : Investigation of
Drought Occurrence and Propagation between Meteorological, Agri-
cultural, and Hydrological Drought ................ 96
Maria Staudinger, Jan Seibert, Kerstin Stahl : A drought index accounting
for snow ............................ 97
Livia Labudova, Lukas Schefczyk, Milan Trizna : Identification of Consec-
utive Dry Days (CDD) using observational and model data from
COSMO CLM .......................... 98
Dilyara Utkuzova : Spatio-temporal characteristics of wet and drought ex-
tremes over territory of Russia .................. 99
Zhiyong Liu, Lucas Menzel : Assessing the drought risk based on the joint
probability of precipitation and soil moisture in Rhineland-Palatinate,
southwest Germany ....................... 100
Arash Malekian : Stochastic modeling of spatio-temporal characteristics of
drought in southern Iran ..................... 101
Yoshinobu Sato : Influence of the Water Channel Network Facility in the
Kiso River System ........................ 103
23

Juraj Parajka, Alberto Viglione, Günter Blöschl : Rainfall-runoff projections
of low flows in Austria ...................... 105
Vladimir Matskovsky, Olga Solomina, Sergey Matveev, Alexander Chernokul-
sky : Drought Signatures in the tree-ring records of European Russia 107
Concepcion Rodriguez-Puebla : A comparative study of dryness indices over
Europe ............................. 109
Martin Hanel, Adam Vizina, Adri Buishand : Analysis of uncertainty in
climate change projections of drought indices for the Czech Republic 110
Ondrej Ledvinka : Scaling of low flows in Czechia ............. 111
Xiao Jing Yang, Z. X. Xu, D. P. Zuo, L. Liu : A Statistical Analysis of the
temporal-spatial changing characteristics of extreme precipitation in
Yunnan Province from 1958-2013 ................. 113
Tae-Woong Kim Ji Yaes Shin Joo-Heon Lee Hyun-Han Kwon : Conceptual
Framework for Satellite Data Based Drought Outlook in Korea . . 115
Lucas Menzel Tobias Törnros : Current and future agricultural droughts in
the southeastern Mediterranean region .............. 116
Veit Blauhut Julia Urquijo Itziar Gonzalez Tanago Kerstin Stahl Lucia De
Stefano Mario Ballesteros : Towards pan–European drought risk
maps: comparing an impact-based approach with a factor-based vul-
nerability assessment ...................... 118
Marek Polášek Petr Pařil Světlana Zahrádková Vít Syrovátka Lenka Šikulová
Michal Straka Denisa Němejcová : Different approaches to drought
capture – how do aquatic invertebrates indicate dry episode in Cen-
tral European streams? ..................... 119
Orhan Dengiz, Markéta Miháliková : Atmospheric drought in Belgium - Sta-
tistical analysis of precipitation deficit .............. 121
Roman Kožín : Testing of Linear Trend Appearance in Precipitation and
Temperature .......................... 122
Radek Vlnas, Adam Beran : A project of the hydrological drought monitoring
in the Czech Republic ...................... 124
Adam Vizina, Martin Hanel, Ladislav Kašpárek, Petr Máca, Pavel Pech :
Drought propagation by using weather generators ......... 125
24

Benedikt Heudorfer, Kerstin Stahl : Drought propagation analysis using dif-
ferent threshold level methods .................. 126
Sepideh Zamani : Atmospheric drought in Belgium - Statistical analysis of
precipitation deficit ....................... 127
Irene Kohn, J.H. Stagge, V. Blauhut, L. M. Tallaksen, S. Bachmair, K. Stahl
: The European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII): major
drought events ......................... 128
Stefan Willem Ploum, Anne Frederike van Loon : Investigating seasonal vari-
ables for droughts in cold climates: a comparative study in Austria
and Norway ........................... 129
Wojciech Jakubowski : Application of trivariate Gumbel–Hougaard copula
for short term prognosis of extreme low-flow events ........ 130
Willem Maetens, Brecht Ingels, Willem Defloor, Kris Cauwenberghs : Op-
timization of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for opera-
tional drought monitoring .................... 131
Willem Maetens, Pieter Cabus, Inge De Jongh, Willem Defloor, Kris Cauwen-
berghs : A comprehensive and effective representation of the drought
situation: implementation through the web portal www.waterinfo.be 133
Willem Maetens, Brecht Ingels, Willem Defloor, Kris Cauwenberghs : SWAT-
modelling of drought impact on two catchments in Flanders . . . . 135
Damian Ferney Cordoba Melgarejo, Concepción Rodríguez Puebla, Jazna
Rodríguez Segovia : Analysis of two climatological data sources to
apply to description of the precipitation behavior in an arid area:
Case of Region of Tarapacá, Northern Chile ........... 137
Dario Musolino, : Evaluation of the socio-economic impacts of drought events:
evidence from some areas in Europe ............... 139
Francesco Vuolo : An application of remote sensing to support to water
resources management ...................... 140
Ewa Bogdanowicz Witold Gustaw Strupczewski Sisay Debele Krzysztof Kochanek
: Flow-duration-frequency and duration-flow-frequency approaches
in low-flow analysis, advantages and constraints .......... 141
25

Kamila Hlavcova Silvia Kohnová Miroslav Sabo Andrea Stevková Jan Szolgay
: Comparison of SOM and non-hierarchic clustering techniques by
pooling of low flows in Slovakia ................. 142
Jude Lubega Musuuza Rohini Kumar Anne F. Van Loon Roland Barthel
Jurriaan ten Broek Luis E. Samaniego Adriaan J. Teuling Sabine
Attinger : The inadequacy of the standardized precipitation index
as a groundwater drought indicator ................ 143
26

111
Scaling of low flows in Czechia
Ondrej Ledvinka1
ledvinka@chmi.cz
1 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
Although some nationwide studies on trends in the series of hydrological drought
characteristics were conducted in Czechia, each of them utilized either the trend
tests that do not account for persistence at all, or the modifications considering
short-term persistence only. In fact, similarly as in the case of short-term
persistence, also long-term persistence, often manifested through scaling, may
adversely influence the results of trend tests. The presence of both short-term
persistence and long-term persistence means that the independence among data,
which is required prior to the application of a trend test, is violated. In particular,
the variance of test statistic is altered, which causes the null hypothesis of no trend
to be rejected too often on the one hand, or rarely on the other.
The series of 7-day low flows together with the series of their occurrence
dates at 144 water-gauging stations from all over Czechia during the hydrological
period 1961–2005 were tested for trends by Fiala et al. (2010). The investigation
was done separately for the whole year, defined specifically for these purposes, and
for summer and winter seasons to distinguish between droughts triggered by
evapotranspiration and droughts triggered by freezing. In addition, the authors
assessed the series comprising the deficit volumes and the numbers of days under
the thresholds delineated by M-day discharges Q330d and Q355d. The Mann–Kendall
test was employed and the abovementioned problem was handled via the Bayley–
Hammersley–Matalas–Langbein–Lettenmaier equivalent sample size approach
which solely accounts for short-term persistence. However, as stated in Khaliq et
al. (2008), long-term persistence may be present in the series of hydrological

112
drought characteristics. The aim of the current study was therefore to discover
whether long-term persistence could have an influence on findings in Fiala et al.
(2010).
Scaling behaviour can be summarized by means of the dimensionless
Hurst exponent ranging form 0 to 1. The values of this exponent falling into the
interval between 0.5 and 1 indicate persistence. Here, due to the short length series
examined, the Hurst exponent was estimated as the fractional differencing
parameter of the FARIMA(0, d, 0) model, to which the value of 0.5 was added. To
better understand what kind of stochastic process generates a series, so-called unit
root tests such as the Phillips–Perron test and the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–
Shin test were jointly applied. Persistence is distinct at more than a half of the
stations, no matter whether annual or seasonal series are studied. However, the
share of stations with persistence rapidly decreases in the winter period. An
exception applies to the series of dates of occurrence in which almost no
persistence can be recognized. The numbers of series likely generated by long
memory or unit root processes are as follows: 38 (annual and summer 7-day low
flows), 17 (winter 7-day low flows), 38 (deficit volumes defined by Q
330d
), 28
(deficit volumes defined by Q
355d
), 37 (numbers of days with discharge under
Q
330d
), 36 (numbers of days with discharge under Q
355d
), 9 (dates of annual 7-day
low flow occurrence) and 17 (dates of summer 7-day low flow occurrence). These
series seem to be clustering in southwest and northeast Czechia.
References
Fiala, T., Ouarda, T. B. M. J. and Hladný, J.: Evolution of low flows in the Czech Republic, J. Hydrol.,
393(3-4), 206–218, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.08.018, 2010.
Khaliq, M. N., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., Gachon, P. and Sushama, L.: Temporal evolution of low-flow
regimes in Canadian rivers, Water Resour. Res., 44(8), W08436, doi:10.1029/2007WR006132,
2008.