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Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 1
Issues in Formulating Urban Transportation Master Plans
1
in Emerging Economies
2
– Experiences in Colombo Metropolitan Area
3
4
5
Hirohisa KAWAGUCHI (Corresponding Author)
6
Oriental Consultants Company Limited (Current Affiliation is Oriental Consultants Global Company Limited)
7
12-1, Honmachi 3-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, 151-0071, Japan
8
Tel: +81-3-6311-7891; Fax: +81-3-6311-8044; E-mail: kawaguchih@oriconsul.com
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10
Yoshihisa ASADA
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(Refer to the first author’s affiliation, address, telephone and Fax number); E-mail: asada-ys@oriconsul.com
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13
Junya UMEMURA
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(Refer to the first author’s affiliation, address, telephone and Fax number); E-mail: umemuraj@oriconsul.com
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Monyrath KOV
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(Refer to the first author’s affiliation, address, telephone and Fax number); E-mail: kov@oriconsul.com
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19
JAYASUNDARA Mudiyanselage Thilakarathna Banda
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Ministry of Transport, the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka
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No-01 D.R. Wijewardena Mawatha, Colombo 10, Sri Lanka
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Tel: +94-11-2687-000; Fax: +94-11-2669-305; Email: jmtb2007@gmail.com
23
24
Tomohiro ONO
25
Advisor (JICA Expert) for the Improvement of Metro Colombo Urban Transport Network,
26
Ministry of Transport, the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka
27
(Refer to the fifth author’s address, telephone and Fax number); E-mail: ono6tomohiro@gmail.com
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29
Saori FUKUHARA
30
Peace Building and Urban and Regional Development Division 1, Economic Infrastructure Department,
31
Japan International Cooperation Agency
32
1-6th floor, Nibancho Center Building 5-25, Niban-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 102-8012, Japan
33
Tel: +81-3-5226-8135; Fax: +81-3-5226-6334; Email: Fukuhara.Saori@jica.go.jp
34
(Family name and affiliations are those of at the time of the research for the paper.)
35
36
Namal RALAPANAWE
37
Senior Project Specialist, Sri Lanka Office, Japan International Cooperation Agency
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10th & 13th Floors, DHPL Building, No.42, Navam Mawatha, Colombo 02, Sri Lanka
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Tel: +94-11-2300470; Fax: +94-11-2303692; Email: RalapanaweNamal.SL@jica.go.jp
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41
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Paper submitted for the 94th Annual Transportation Research Board Meeting
43
January 2015
44
Washington D.C.
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46
Submission date: November 15, 2014
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48
Word Count: 6,401 + 1,000 (1 table + 3 figures) & 30 references = 7,401 words & 30 references
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Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 2
ABSTRACT
1
The purpose of this paper is to identify issues in preparing transportation plans for urban areas in
2
emerging economies where the economy is vigorously growing by studying the urban transportation master
3
plan formulation for the Colombo Metropolitan Area. Contrasting with developed countries, it is likely that
4
there will be no or only weakly documented urban planning regulations. If that is the case, urban structure and
5
land use plans must be prepared in order to facilitate the transportation planning. This can be a good
6
opportunity to prepare land use and transportation integrated plans. Considering the human resources required
7
for master plan formulation, time schedule for planning, required accuracy of data, key projects which affect
8
the overall master plan scenario and the requests of policy makers; it is highly recommended to quantitatively
9
forecast future transportation demand and evaluate projects using scenario-based and corridor-based
10
evaluations, bearing in mind assumptions made for the estimation. The experiences of other urban areas also
11
help provide insight on the direction of the future transportation systems. It is also recommended to allot ample
12
time for communication with policy makers and the public involvement process by using a strategic
13
environmental assessment process. Finally, it is proposed to study further the legal, institutional and financial
14
aspects to implement and manage the plan. Examples in other countries imply the possibility of a new
15
organization in charge of master plan monitoring and data management.
16
17
18
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 3
1. INTRODUCTION
1
Except for the urban areas in the developed world, those living in rapidly growing areas are facing several
2
obstacles in preparing urban transportation plans. Changes in economy, politics and society can easily exceed
3
the speed of infrastructure development and even the formulation of plans. For instance, annual growth in the
4
gross domestic products of emerging and developing Asian countries has been in the range of 6.5 to 11.5% for
5
the last decade (1). On the other hand, this number can suddenly drop to a negative value in the case of an
6
economic slump such as the financial crisis in Asia in ’97.
7
In terms of transportation, motorization in conjunction with urban sprawl is a common issue in most
8
urban areas in developing countries (2). For instance, annual average growth rates of cars and motorcycles in
9
Hanoi, Vietnam during the last decades reached 10% and 7% respectively. The number of motorcycles in
10
Hanoi city was equal to two thirds of the population in 2014. No developed countries experienced such drastic
11
motorization and diffusion of motorcycles (3).
12
In lock-step with motorization, urban sprawl is sometimes rapid and disordered due to lack of policy
13
intervention, loopholes in the legal system and loose control. In some urban areas, there is no land use plan or
14
structure plan. In addition to problems in urban zoning, legal and regulatory schemes in developing countries
15
in the transportation field such as bus route licensing, driver’s licenses and automobile inspections often cannot
16
keep pace with the rapid transition in the economy, society and politics.
17
Bureaucratic sectionalism of government authorities further creates complicated problems because
18
many urban areas do not have cross-sector and cross-metropolitan authorities for urban planning and
19
transportation issues. Financial constraints of central and local governments, which are partially due to loose
20
taxation, are also obstacles. This results in slow implementation of countermeasures and also inadequate
21
investment in human resources development. Additionally, data reliability and availability for urban transport
22
master plans should be taken into consideration because financial and human resources tend to be allocated to
23
implementation efforts rather than planning in these countries.
24
In addition, there are no or only limited legal and administrative mechanisms for urban transport data
25
collection, and planning and policy making in many developing countries although some governments have
26
formulated urban transport plans with assistance from development partners such as bilateral or multi-lateral
27
development agencies (4). Currently, land acquisition and relocation for infrastructure development are critical
28
issues in many countries. Along with democratization, transparency is essential for these procedures. These are
29
frequently highlighted as political issues. Other obstacles in transportation planning include consideration of
30
poverty groups, distribution of religious and ethnic groups, and vulnerability to disasters such as flooding and
31
earthquake. Special attention should be paid to these aspects in urban transportation planning in emerging
32
economies.
33
There are a variety of studies on theoretical and methodological frameworks for formulating urban
34
transport plans in developed countries (5-7). A number of actual examples of urban transport plans are also
35
available (8-9). Also a number of urban transportation master plan documents from emerging economies are
36
available. For instance, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) supported formulation of a number
37
of urban transport master plans (4, 10) such as the Jakarta Metropolitan Area (11) and these are available on
38
the JICA library web site at http://libopac.jica.go.jp/. However, the processes, issues and discussions during
39
formulation of the master plan are rarely described.
40
Taking the urban transport master plan for Colombo Metropolitan Area as an example, this paper aims
41
to identify discussion points, obstacles and issues in formulating urban transport master plans in developing
42
countries, especially in rapidly growing emerging economies.
43
44
2. COLOMBO URBAN TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN PROJECT
45
The Western Province, with an area of 3,694 square kilometers including Colombo, is the largest province in
46
terms of population in Sri Lanka, a rapidly growing country located at a strategic hub of the Indian Ocean. Sri
47
Lanka’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in current prices reached 2,920 United States dollars in
48
2012. Sri Lanka is experiencing rapid economic growth after a long conflict. The annual growth rate of the last
49
decade was 6.0%. (12).
50
Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) is the largest local authority in terms of population with 555,000
51
residents in an area of 40 square kilometers (13). The CMC and surrounding urbanized areas, with an area of
52
996 square kilometers, are defined as the Colombo Metropolitan Area (CMA) having 3.68 million residents
53
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 4
which is 18% of the nation (13). The Western Province accounted for 44% of the Sri Lankan GDP in 2011
1
(14). Similar to cities in other rapidly growing countries, traffic congestion in the Colombo Metropolitan Area
2
is getting worse year by year.
3
Dalkmann and Sakamoto (2012) of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia
4
and the Pacific (UN ESCAP) suggested bus based transport systems for cities with 500,000 to 5 million
5
population in relatively less developed countries in Asia and the Pacific. However, rail-based transport is
6
suggested for similar sized cities in developing countries. (15) While CMA currently has a bus-based urban
7
public transport system, a rail-based transport system might be required in accordance with the development
8
stage.
9
In the early 1960’s, intensive public transport systems were developed in CMA including 4 railway
10
lines from the city center to other provinces, an electronic tram line in the city center operated by the Colombo
11
Municipal Council (CMC), and intensive bus route networks operated by a national bus company, the Ceylon
12
Transport Board (CTB). The share of private modes of transport surged from 26% in 1985 to 42% in 2013 as
13
shown in FIGURE 1 while the economic activity was somewhat restricted during the conflict in Sri Lanka
14
from 1983 to 2009. Although the government had to focus its efforts on reconstruction of the area affected by
15
the conflict, post-conflict economic growth in the CMA was remarkable. The traffic congestion in the CMA is
16
evident during morning and evening peak hours, especially on the seven major radial transport corridors that
17
connect the city center of Colombo and the suburban cities. The peak-hour, peak-direction average travel
18
speeds on a weekday for 20km sections of the seven transportation corridors are less than 15 km/h as shown in
19
FIGURE 1. The Ministry of Transport of Sri Lanka, therefore, decided to initiate the “Urban Transport System
20
Development Project for Colombo Metropolitan Region and Suburbs” (CoMTrans) to find immediate, short,
21
and long term viable solutions for the transport issues in the CMA with technical assistance from the JICA (16).
22
23
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 5
1
Source: 16
2
FIGURE 1 Traffic Condition of Colombo Metropolitan Area.
3
4
The Steering Committee (S/C) is the decision making and high-level policy making committee of the
5
project chaired by the Secretary of the Ministry of Transport. While originally there were 13 members of the
6
steering committee, including the chairman, approximately 20 members attended the meetings. All the
7
Corridor
Name
Section
Travel
Speed*
1)
Negombo
Fort – Ja-Ela
19.5 km/h
2)
Kandy
Fort– Kadawatha
15.9 km/h
3)
Low Level
Road
Fort – Kaduwela
16.5 km/h
4)
Malabe
Fort – Kaduwela via
Malabe
13.8 km/h
5)
High Level
Road
Fort – Kottawa
14.6 km/h
6)
Horana
Fort – Piliyandala
15.6 km/h
7)
Galle
Fort – Moratuwa
13.8 km/h
Note: *Peak- hour, peak-direction average travel speed on a
weekday
Length of sections are in the range of 15 – 20 km.
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1985
1995
2004
2013*
Private
Bus
Rail
Unit: 1,000 Passengers per day, Both Direction
Private Modes
are significantly
increasing.
Pubic Transport
(Bus and Railway)
are losing their
modal share.
42%
33%
33%
26%
1,061
1,679 1,697
2,066
Private
Motorized
Modes
Railway
Both Directions
Daily Passenger Flow at the Boundary of Colombo Municipal Council
Peak Hour Travel Speed of Seven Transport Corridors
Note: * Total passengers at the CMC boundary at all
survey locations was 2.10 million passengers per day
(both directions). For comparison purposes, survey
locations surveyed in ‘85, ‘95 and ‘04 were selected.
For 1985 and 1995, traffic survey results from the
Road Development Authority (RDA) and the
University of Moratuwa were utilized; and, survey
data from the University of Moratuwa was utilized for
2004. 2013 data are the survey results of the
CoMTrans project (15).
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 6
transport-related ministries and departments are members of the Steering Committee. Six S/C meetings were
1
held in 2 years.
2
One of the key features of the CoMTrans project was to conduct comprehensive and accurate transport
3
surveys for formulation of the urban transport master plan. A summary of the transport surveys for the
4
CoMTrans project is shown in TABLE 1. Amongst all the transportation surveys, the Home Travel Survey
5
(HTS) is the trunk survey for preparation of the origin-destination (OD) table and collection of socio-economic
6
characteristics together with travel behaviors. It took almost 10 months to complete the HTS. After the series
7
of transportation surveys, transport demand was forecast using four-step modelling. The details will be
8
discussed in the following section.
9
10
TABLE 1 Transportation Surveys of Colombo Urban Transport Master Plan
11
No.
Types of
Survey
Method
Survey Location
Survey Day/Period
Sampling Rate
1
Household
Travel Survey
(HTS)
Initial interview at home,
leaving questionnaires, filling
questionnaires by a
respondent, and collecting
them by a re-visit usually one
week later
Western Province
Weekday (Tuesday -
Thursday)
(November, 2012 –
August, 2013)
2.5 % of population
(or approximately
36,000 Households)
Random sampling
from the electoral
list
2
Cordon Line
Survey
(1) Roadside
OD Interview
Interview and vehicle count
survey at road side
27 locations along
Western Province
boundary
24h, 16h or 12h on
weekday depending
on location (January –
February, 2013)
5% for motorcycles
and 3-wheelers; and
20% for other
vehicles
(2) Bus
Passenger OD
Interview
In vehicle interview and
passenger count survey
14 of the 27
locations above
16 h on weekday
(February – March,
2013)
5% of crossing
passengers
(3) Railway
Passenger OD
Interview
In train interview and
passenger count survey
3 railway lines at
boundary of
Western Province
During service hours
on weekday (February
– March, 2013)
20% of crossing
passengers
(4) Air
Passenger OD
Interview
Interview survey at waiting
room of the airport
Bandaranaike
International
Airport waiting
room
24h on weekday
(March, 2013)
20% of departing
passengers
3
Screen Line
Survey
(1) Classified
Vehicle Count
Vehicle count survey at road
side
67 locations along
CMC boundary
24h or 16h on
weekday depending
on location (February
– March, 2013)
100% of passing
vehicles
(2) Bus
Passenger
Loading Survey
Bus passenger loading level
survey at road side
67 locations along
CMC boundary
16h on weekday
(February – March,
2013)
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 7
No.
Types of
Survey
Method
Survey Location
Survey Day/Period
Sampling Rate
4
Trip Generation
Survey
Interview and passenger
count survey at office
working space, entrance and
parking space
Collection of building layout
and the number of workers
and tenants
10 government
office buildings, 10
private office
buildings and a total
of 10 shopping
malls, supermarkets
and traditional
markets which are
major trip
generation points in
Western Province
During service hours
on weekday (April –
May, 2013)
10% of facility
users
5
Truck OD
Interview
Survey
Interview and vehicle count
survey at gates of the port and
export processing zones
(EPZs) and industrial estates
(IEs)
8 EPZs, 7 IEs, 1
port, and 4
container terminals
in Western Province
24h on weekday
(April – May, 2013)
20%
6
Travel Speed
Survey
Floating survey method using
taxis and commercial vehicles
equipped with global
positioning system (GPS)
Within 10Km from
CMC boundary
Anytime of the day
(December, 2012 –
July, 2013)
- -
Source: 16
1
2
Through discussion with the S/C members and stakeholders, four objectives of the master plan were
3
identified. To achieve these objectives, a number of urban transportation projects and transportation
4
infrastructure development scenarios were tested. All the candidate projects that were urban transportation
5
policy measures were evaluated based on the points below.
6
7
· Equity in Transport to All the Members of Society
8
· Efficiency in Transport Systems to Support Economic Activities
9
· Environmental Improvement and Health Promotion related to Transport
10
· Traffic Safety and Security in Transport
11
12
To help to achieve these objectives, a package of urban transport policy measures were summarized
13
and various transportation development projects were compiled as transportation development scenarios. A
14
total of six transportation development scenarios were prepared and evaluated from the viewpoints of the
15
above four objectives. In addition, corridor-focus analyses were conducted for the seven radial transportation
16
corridors to identify ideal transportation projects for each corridor. Inner-city projects and non-corridor
17
projects were examined separately. Finally, short, intermediate and long term transportation development
18
projects were proposed.
19
This project was initiated to introduce mass transit systems in the region for the purpose of alleviating
20
traffic congestion. However, both the Sri Lankan and Japanese sides agreed to prepare an urban transportation
21
master plan first rather than rushing to study feasibility without accurate OD data as transit projects are quite
22
costly. Therefore, the feasibility study on the transit systems was conducted as a part of the project. Although it
23
was initially assumed that the feasibility study would start after completion of the master plan, the feasibility
24
study and the master plan study were conducted in parallel due to delays in completion of the transportation
25
surveys and the holding of a series of discussions on the master plan.
26
27
3. MAJOR DISCUSSIONS ON MASTER PLAN FORMULATION
28
29
3.1 What about Urban Structure and Land Use Plans –Key Inputs to the Master Plan?
30
With regard to urban development plans, which should be the basis of an urban transport master plan, there is
31
no legally binding master plan or urban planning document for the CMA except for the gazetted regional
32
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 8
structure plan prepared in 1998 targeting year 2010. While there was a master plan study conducted in 2004, it
1
was not legalized and the economic condition is quite different as almost a decade has passed since then.
2
Therefore, the urban structure, zoning and population projections had to be re-defined. One
3
remarkable contrast between the Colombo Metropolitan Area and other Asian metropolitan areas is the
4
relatively lower population density, approximately 3,700 persons per square kilometer. While population
5
density is relatively higher along the major radial transport corridors with arterial roads and railway lines, the
6
density is lower in inter-corridor areas.
7
It also should be noted that in 1982 the government moved the parliament from Colombo to the
8
adjacent city of Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte, which is in the CMA. Although only a limited number of
9
government agencies have moved their offices to the new capital area after three decades, several government
10
agencies, including three defense headquarters, are currently preparing to move their offices.
11
The urban structure of the CMA was proposed taking this background into consideration. Commercial
12
and business land uses were proposed at sub-centers along the radial transport corridors. Rather than proposing
13
new large-scale urban development, the proposed urban structure is generally in line with the current structure.
14
Especially for the corridor to the new capital city, several urban renovation and development projects were
15
incorporated. By utilizing the existing corridors and proposing transit development along these corridors, a
16
compact and transit-oriented city can be achieved by enhancing high density land use along the corridors.
17
There are three key methods to achieve the proposed urban structure. ‘Preservation’ is required for the
18
areas between transport corridors outside of the CMA. Strong acts and regulations as well as a strong
19
institution to enforce them are essential. In addition, ‘Renovation’ of sub-centers along the radial transportation
20
corridors is essential to introducing a high density and transit-friendly urban structure. Renovation of
21
government buildings along the corridor to the urban complex that would have commercial and residential
22
floors might be easier options for the government sector. Another method to renovate existing cities is land re-
23
adjustment or, as it is called in Japan, kukakuseiri, which enables several land owners, land leaseholders and
24
tenants of a mass of land plots to join together to develop buildings and infrastructures by conjoining their land
25
rights, which is rewarded with expanded floor areas and increased land prices. Although it takes time to
26
implement, land re-adjustment is a rare method which can be applied in existing urbanized areas. While ‘New
27
Urban Development’ is common in many countries, applicable area in the CMA is limited because low density
28
urban area has already sprawled across the CMA. However, it can be applied in areas in front of a station of
29
the planned new transit system.
30
One remaining issue is how to achieve this proposed urban structure and zoning. Current regulations
31
on zoning, floor area ratio and the number of stories of buildings contain several loopholes. As urban
32
development is market driven, enactment, as well as enforcement, of urban planning regulations is essential.
33
Urban structure, zoning and a legal framework to control them are sometimes not working or obsolete
34
in developing countries. This means that urban planning has to be studied from scratch in the formulation of
35
the transportation planning process. However, this is, in a sense, a chance for preparing integrated land use and
36
transportation plans, which are essential for transit-oriented development. It is also recommended to study the
37
regulatory and institutional aspects of urban planning and zoning schemes as a part of a land use –
38
transportation integrated study in developing countries.
39
40
3.2 How Long Did it Take to Formulate the Master Plan? Was the Output in Appropriate Timing?
41
Formulation of the master plan, especially selection of transportation development projects, was assumed to be
42
based on the quantitative analysis utilizing the transportation survey results. On the other hand, expeditious
43
implementation of the master plan portion as well as moving forward to the transit system feasibility study
44
portion is important giving consideration to the political and administrative schedules.
45
As a result, it took approximately 10 months for just the field work for the Household Travel Survey.
46
In addition, the data verification, data input, database development, preparation of OD tables, preparation of
47
transportation models, estimation of future transportation demand, selection of projects, evaluation of scenarios,
48
discussions with the stakeholders and counterparts and revision of the master plan based on the comments
49
from the stakeholders took a total of approximately 20 months. This is actually not in line with the
50
administrative schedule for requesting Japanese official development assistance (ODA) loans for a selected
51
transit project. The delay in schedule also affected various aspects of the project. For the preparation of an
52
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 9
outline of the urban transport master plan, most of the survey results such as the Household Travel Survey
1
(HTS) were not available due to the delay in the survey process.
2
A part of the cause of the delay was, however, virtually inevitable. This was the first time that an HTS
3
of this size, which requires a number of educated human resources, was attempted in Sri Lanka. In addition,
4
several unexpected problems occurred during the survey such as a teachers strike in the schools and
5
universities, refusal to cooperate in the survey by a religious group, accuracy of the electoral list, which was
6
used to generate the sampling list, lack of human resources of the company that conducted the survey,
7
retirement of a significant number of surveyors and delay of the Census Survey which was originally
8
considered to be a source of the sampling list.
9
While the delays of other surveys were shorter than the HTS, there were similar problems. Although
10
it was somewhat expected, it also took time for the procurement process for the consulting firms to implement
11
the project and the surveys. It also should be noted that there was a difference of opinion regarding the
12
required accuracy of the outputs between the expatriate experts that were in charge of the transportation
13
surveys and the supervisors working in the field. It took time for communication to rectify this difference of
14
opinion.
15
There was always a trade-off issue between time and accuracy. One particular example is the
16
sampling method. The easiest and shortest sampling method is on-site sampling by surveyors. However, there
17
is a high risk that surveyors tend to choose samples from relatively low income groups as the houses,
18
apartments and housing complexes of high income households are not easy to access due to security (17). As it
19
was necessary to hold a series of discussions with the stakeholders, it took several months to decide to use the
20
electoral list as the basis for the sampling. In addition, sampling from the electoral list contains a risk of delay
21
as the list was not up to date.
22
In addition to the time taken for the transportation surveys, communication between the members of
23
the steering committee and the stakeholders of the projects took time. As the transportation survey was delayed,
24
there were no new outputs to be presented to the steering committee meeting. This led to cancellation of the
25
meetings for more than six months at the beginning of the project. This made the subsequent meetings
26
complicated and disordered. However, frequent and close communication with the steering committee
27
members might reduce the time necessary for the whole planning process.
28
As a result, the HTS database was not on time for preparing the outline of the master plan such as
29
selection of the projects. Based on the other surveys such as the traffic count survey and secondary data, an
30
outline of the plan was proposed and discussed. After the preparation of the HTS database, transportation
31
demand was forecast, and, the draft scenario of the master plan was tested. It was advantageous that the results
32
of the demand forecast and the key performance indicators supported the draft master plan.
33
As the master plan data, especially the OD database, is often utilized for longer time period such as a
34
decade, it requires certain level of accuracy. However, the transport database of one year ago can be obsolete
35
considering the speed of motorization in developing countries as shown in section 3.3. While the extensive and
36
complicated full-HTS takes time and cause no response bias especially in developing countries, the survey
37
form of the HTS can be simplified by focusing questions such as home-to-work and home-to-school trips.
38
Taking acceptable accuracy, required time for the survey and budget constraint into consideration, the number
39
of items to be asked and the sample size can be minimized.
40
It is also recommended to consider ample time for communication with the stakeholders and the
41
public. To maintain transparency and to avoid potential risk of misunderstanding and objections, employing
42
formal communication procedures when preparing a scheme for strategic environmental assessment might help
43
shorten the total time required for both the master plan and feasibility study portions. Rushing might result in
44
failure of the project in the end.
45
46
3.3 How Accurate Must the Data be for a Transportation Demand Forecast?
47
Can a model based on the current travel behavior predict the future transportation demand with certain
48
accuracy in a rapidly changing environment? Many aspects such as economic growth, security conditions,
49
change in education level, and enforcement of traffic rules and regulations can significantly affect travel
50
behaviors. It was revealed that transferability in terms of time might not be applicable to urban areas in
51
developing countries under a rapidly changing transportation environment (18). For instance, the modal choice
52
behavior of a person with the same personal attributes and trip characteristics presented completely different
53
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 10
results in the Jakarta metropolitan area (18). As a result, the share of motorcycles in 2010 that was estimated in
1
2002 was significantly lower than the actual observation in a 2010 study as shown in FIGURE 2 even though
2
the estimation had been based on a large scale HTS to 166,000 households and a series of transportation
3
surveys. (11, 19)
4
5
6
FIGURE 2 Observed and Estimated Modal Share of Jakarta Metropolitan Area.
7
8
In the CMA, assumptions regarding the mode choice model and estimated results were key points of
9
discussion. Both the revealed preference based model and the stated preference based model were utilized for
10
discrete choice model development. Needless to say, the models are reflecting current modal choice behavior,
11
and assumptions must be made on future socio-economic and transportation environment as explanatory
12
variables. While a four-step model was applied, a variety of variables were considered for the modal choice
13
model such as travel time, travel cost, income level, trip purpose, zonal index, gender, age, existence of transit
14
mode etc. In the process of estimation, iteration calculations were conducted between the modal choice step
15
and the traffic assignment step to consider the impact of road congestion on the modal choice. An impedance
16
matrix including travel time and cost estimated in the traffic assignment step were inputted in the next modal
17
choice step. FIGURE 3 shows the model share results with different assumptions. The left-side graph is the
18
estimation result considering the iteration of modal choice and traffic assignment steps. The right-side graph is
19
those without the iteration calculation. Impedances are assumed to be equal to the 2013 level for the right-side
20
graph. It is interesting to see that the modal share of public transportation remains half of all inter-zonal trips
21
by motorized mode even with the do nothing scenario in the iteration calculation. After investigation, it was
22
identified that this is caused by unrealistically high impedances estimated by the link-cost performance
23
function of road assignment under hyper congestion conditions and relatively lower impedance estimated by
24
the congestion utility function of the transit assignment. It is also observed that impedance of some OD pairs
25
reached the maximum value of the software. However in developing countries, impedance might not be such a
26
high value due to passenger’s behaviors beyond planner’s assumptions such as ‘flexible’ direction arrangement
27
of road lanes during peak hour, and passengers on top of the roof of a train. Attention should be paid to the fact
28
that the estimation result under extreme conditions might return unrealistic values in developing countries as
29
some theories and functions are not designed to estimate in such conditions.
30
31
Note: “DN” stands for “do nothing”. “DS” stands for ”do something”.
2002 observation and 2010 estimation in 2002: (
19)
2010 observation: (
11
). The 2010 observation is a combination of observations (to work purpose and to
school purpose) Commuter Survey and estimation from sample person tracking survey in 2010.
17%
23%
22%
20%
22%
21%
21%
53%
62%
56%
57%
27%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2002 Observation
2010 Estimation in 2002 (DN Case)
2010 Estimation in 2002 (DS Case)
2010 Observation
Car Motorcycle Public Transport
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 11
1
FIGURE 3 Estimated Modal Share of Do Nothing Scenario for CMA in 2035.
2
3
As discussed above, it is not easy to accurately estimate future transportation demand in developing
4
countries. Not only the modal choice preference, but also the modal choice utility function can be changed (18).
5
In addition, theories, assumptions and functions applicable in developed countries might not always be
6
applicable in extreme conditions. Planners should understand these characteristics when reading simulation
7
results. In addition, there are usually a significant number of parameters needed to be input to estimate the
8
future transportation demand. Even a minor revision of just one parameter can significantly change the outputs.
9
Planners should clearly inform the policy makers of the assumptions made and the potential accuracy of the
10
data. Special attention should be paid for the utilization of the demand forecast for policy evaluation in
11
developing countries.
12
However, simulation of transportation demand is the only method to quantitatively estimate and check
13
future transportation under complicated settings. It is recommended to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of
14
policy options bearing in mind the number of assumptions and limitations of the analysis method. It is also
15
useful to help to understand the impact of various policies under certain assumptions. This is a key input to
16
economic analysis as well. It also should be noted that quantitative analysis results are sometimes requested in
17
the public consultation.
18
Meyer and Miller proposed several approaches for the evaluation under uncertainty taking the concept
19
of risk management into consideration (20, pp. 519–520). This includes adding a risk premium in the project
20
evaluation, setting several future scenarios for the evaluation and considering flexibility in planning process.
21
Frequent monitoring of statistical data such as vehicle and resident registration and traffic count survey results
22
can help understanding dynamic trend of urban transport under rapidly changing condition. Simplified demand
23
analysis methodology (20, pp. 264) is also useful for intermediate policy evaluation. These countermeasures
24
might minimize the risk of uncertainty. Experiences of other urban areas also might help acquire clues to the
25
future transportation. However, characteristics of target cities must be examined carefully as a variety of
26
factors affect transportation.
27
Another implication of the CoMTrans project is how to present these simulated results to policy
28
makers, stakeholders and the public. Among transportation planners, it is not difficult to present detailed
29
assumptions and explain and discuss the validity of the models. Although the estimated results are quite
30
important inputs, it is not practical to present all the details to all the stakeholders. An unconvincing
31
explanation of the master plan could result in a delay or refusal to accept it by those stakeholders. One
32
particular example is the presentation of average travel time and speed. Many stakeholders mentioned that
33
observed travel speed by the travel speed survey using GPS is different from what they had experienced. It
34
14%
25%
28%
33%
15%
12%
10%
9%
13%
10%
8%
7%
58%
54%
54%
50%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2013 - Present
2020 - Do Nothing
2025 - Do Nothing
2035 - Do Nothing
Car Motorcycle 3 Wheeler Public Transport
14%
27%
33%
39%
15%
13%
12%
10%
13%
11%
10%
9%
58%
50%
46%
41%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2013 - Present
2020 - Do Nothing
2025 - Do Nothing
2035 - Do Nothing
Car Motorcycle 3 Wheeler Public Transport
Modal share with iteration calculation of modal
choice step and traffic assignment step
Modal share without iteration calculation of modal
choice step and traffic assignment step
Impedance is assumed to be the same for all years
Note: Modal share of inter-zonal trips by motorized mode of transport
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 12
might be said that some people remember the worst travel time experience because the impact on their life was
1
significant while normal travel time is less than that. One solution is to provide the results which are close to
2
people’s perception such as the five percentile lowest travel speed rather than average values.
3
4
3.4 How to Screen and Evaluate Projects?
5
One of the key outputs of an urban transport master plan is the list of proposed projects. There is always a
6
question regarding how the projects were selected. In the CoMTrans project, several evaluation methods were
7
tested. This section discusses the method to select and to evaluate projects and scenarios in developing
8
countries.
9
Prior to selecting the projects, some on-going projects such as those that are under construction are
10
considered as given. These are sometimes called “no-regret” projects in Sri Lanka. Depending upon the
11
progress of the project, such “no-regret” projects shall be selected. In some countries, projects under
12
construction are automatically considered as given, but in some developed countries even those projects that
13
are under construction are re-validated periodically (21). The CoMTrans project received several requests from
14
relevant agencies to include some projects that were then in the feasibility study or design stage as “no-regret”,
15
sometimes without a clear reason. Ideally, this should be closely discussed with the implementing agency
16
taking progress, feasibility, political consideration, and compliance with national policy and the master plan
17
objectives into consideration. As there was not enough time for detailed discussions of all projects, projects
18
under construction were automatically considered as “no-regret” and the others are evaluated under the normal
19
process. However, some large scale projects should be examined, discussed and agreed between relevant
20
agencies as the existence of these projects might significantly change the entire picture of the master plan.
21
There are several methods of evaluation and selection of projects. As the number of combinations of
22
potential projects is limitless in an urban transport master plan, a few scenarios or alternative strategy and
23
actions (7, pp. 264) should be prepared for the detailed analysis based on their adherence to policy directions
24
such as a public transportation intensive scenario as opposed to a road development intensive scenario.
25
Transportation demand is forecast for each of the scenarios and the key performance indicators are estimated
26
for the evaluation of those scenarios. The advantage of this method is that the entire network performance of
27
the scenarios can be evaluated. However, one issue is that there is no clear standard on how to select projects
28
by scenarios. Therefore, the evaluator can intentionally select projects that lead to a specific result. It is also
29
hard to evaluate the feasibility of the entire scenario. For the selection of projects by scenario, several aspects
30
should be taken into consideration such as demand, network connectivity, conformity with the objectives,
31
availability of land, financial constraints and consideration of poverty groups. The final selection might be
32
dependent on the professional judgment of the planner.
33
Another method is corridor-wise evaluation (20, pp. 182, 22 and 23). By focusing on a specific
34
transportation corridor, several alternatives can be simulated and evaluated with transportation demand
35
forecasting. The advantage of this method is that a detailed examination of the system and mode choice also
36
can be done with the multi-criteria analysis taking various aspects into consideration. This method makes
37
planners to identify problems easily, and, it makes them easier to consult with the public. In addition, multi-
38
modal trade-off can be easily analyzed (20, pp. 182, 22 and 23). On the other hand, network characteristics of
39
transportation projects are not properly evaluated such as the impact of a circular road and circular transit
40
projects while connection to these projects can have a significant impact on passenger loading and vehicle
41
traffic volume.
42
The third method is a project-wise evaluation with several performance indicators such as economic
43
internal rate of return (20, pp. 516–519). This method is, however, not prudent to apply for the entire urban
44
transportation master plan. This is because the network characteristics of the road and transit systems cannot be
45
considered. As transportation demand is dependent on the network, it is not practical to estimate the benefits of
46
all possible options of the network for the entire potential project.
47
In the CoMTrans project, both scenario-based evaluations and corridor-based evaluations were
48
conducted considering the advantages and disadvantages of both methods. Even when undertaking evaluation
49
with both methods, there is no standard procedure on how to consider the opinions of residents in the region in
50
many countries.
51
52
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 13
3.5 How to Make It Happen?
1
The Ministry of Transport is keen to give legal status to the master plan to ensure compliance by all related
2
stakeholders. This is critical in Sri Lanka since the powers and authority related to the different aspects in the
3
Master Plan are divided among a number of different agencies and each agency tends to formulate plans
4
considering their mandate only. The procedure for legalizing the master plan in Sri Lanka is first to submit for
5
Cabinet approval and thereafter to the parliament. Once it is approved by parliament as a policy document,
6
legal provisions would need to be enacted and/or amended for implementation of most of the new measures.
7
Since the mandate of the Ministry of Transport is limited to some aspects of the Master Plan, a mechanism is
8
needed to bring at least the key stakeholders under one umbrella, in order to follow through with the activities
9
of legalization.
10
While the establishment of an organization directly under the President to be in charge of
11
comprehensive urban transportation planning was stipulated in the National Transport Plan gazetted in 2006,
12
there have been no reports regarding the progress of the formulation of the new organization. In the CoMTrans
13
project, a mass transit authority in charge of regulating railway and new transit modes such as monorail and a
14
bus rapid transit is proposed as a transitional organization. It is also expected that the proposed regulatory
15
authority or other organization will be in charge of managing the transportation survey database and updating
16
the urban transportation master plan.
17
In the developed world, many countries have developed legal and administrative systems to formulate,
18
legalize, finance, implement and monitor an urban transport master plan. Take the example of Singapore, the
19
Land Transport Authority (LTA), a statutory board under the Ministry of Transport, is in charge of planning,
20
policy making, implementation, operation and maintenance of rail, road and bus transportation (24). Some
21
Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) in the USA are in charge of planning and allocation of funds
22
from the federal government for transportation projects (25). In terms of data collection and analysis for the
23
urban transport policy, several transport surveys are implemented periodically in Japan (6). Transport for
24
London (TfL) also continuously conduct trip diary surveys throughout the year and they accumulate transport
25
data for policy making (26). It is also noteworthy that some developing countries such as Indonesia have
26
already initiated a project to set up a cross-sector and cross-metropolitan organization (27).
27
With regard to the financial aspect, many developing countries have no alternative but to rely on
28
assistance from international donors for large scale projects, and a transport project generally requires a huge
29
amount of initial investment for developing infrastructure. It is recommended to implement the projects
30
proposed in the master plan in a coordinated manner by wisely utilizing assistance from several donors in
31
different transport sectors.
32
33
4. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS
34
The purpose of this paper is to identify issues in preparing transportation plans for urban areas in emerging
35
economies where the economy is vigorously growing by closely studying the formulation of the urban
36
transportation master plan for the Colombo Metropolitan Area.
37
Contrasting with developed countries, it is likely that there will be no or only weakly documented
38
urban planning regulations. However, this can be a good opportunity to prepare land use and transportation
39
integrated plans targeting transit oriented development as concurrent development of the land use plan and the
40
transport plan is the best option (28). Urban planning tools such as land re-adjustment to reallocate existing
41
low density land use to high density and mixed land use can be effective, but this takes time. Thus,
42
Gakenheimer’s argument that transport infrastructure development is more viable option than controlling and
43
forming land use patterns in rapidly motorizing metropolitan areas (28) is supported from the practical point of
44
view.
45
Considering that many metropolitan areas in emerging countries are facing unprecedented rapid
46
motorization (3, 10, 11, 18 and 27), expeditious development of transportation master plan is essential. In this
47
sense, using transportation survey data conducted more than one year ago might lead to misunderstanding of
48
current transportation condition. In addition, ample time is required for communication with policy makers and
49
the public. On the other hand, the transport surveys and secondary data collection in developing countries
50
requires special effort and attention such as bias in the household income level. Equity evaluation of urban
51
transport which is critical in urban areas in developing countries requires OD survey results (29). Although
52
there are limitations in the accuracy of the future demand forecasts, simulation of future transportation demand
53
Kawaguchi, Asada, Umemura, Kov, Jayasundara, Ono, Fukuhara and Ralapanawe 14
is the only method available to test future conditions and the impacts of policy options. These facts depicted
1
complex urban transportation planning work in urban areas in developing countries, which was less
2
documented in the existing academic and practical works.
3
Then, is data analysis for the urban transportation planning in urban areas in developing countries
4
impossible and meaningless work? There are several solutions on this. Simplification of survey methodology
5
and reduction of sample size taking the purpose of the survey into consideration can help minimizing time for
6
the survey with minimum compromise in accuracy. Requirements regarding the timing and accuracy of the
7
data are essentially different in nature for a long-term urban transportation master plan, a short-term action
8
plan and a feasibility study for each project. Utilizing different data with different time schedules and accuracy
9
might be reasonable. Simplified demand estimation techniques such as trend analysis and elasticity-based
10
model can be helpful for short term analysis, while it can cause serious error especially for the long term
11
estimation (20, pp. 264–270). Frequent monitoring of fundamental statistics such as population, vehicle
12
registration and traffic counts at specific intersection can give insight on the latest trend during planning
13
process. Considering the inputs required for long-term master plan formulation, which include the time
14
schedule for planning, required accuracy of data, key projects which affect the overall master plan scenario and
15
the requests of policy makers; it is recommended to quantitatively forecast future transportation demand and
16
evaluate projects with scenario-based and corridor-based evaluations bearing in mind assumptions made for
17
the estimation. Experiences in other urban areas also help provide insight on the direction of the future
18
transportation systems. Risk management in planning process is also essential for transportation planning in
19
developing countries.
20
It is recommended to allot ample time for dialogue with the policy makers and for the public
21
involvement process to avoid misunderstandings in the future. The strategic environmental assessment (SEA)
22
process might help in this. In addition to the SEA process, frequent public involvement opportunity such as
23
press release and monthly report publication might be effective to improve accountability not only for the
24
public but also for policy makers as they have to examine these documents. For the communication with the
25
public, presenting data which matches their perceptions can help them understand the situation more rapidly.
26
Finally, it is proposed to study further the legal, institutional and financial aspects to implement and
27
manage the plan. Examples in other countries imply the possibility of a new organization in charge of master
28
plan monitoring and data management. It is not incidental that Dotson mentioned that keys for successful
29
implementation of projects in developing countries are improving governance and accountability, dialogue
30
with political leaders and training of staffs etc. (30).
31
32
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
33
This paper is based on experience with the “Urban Transport System Development Project for Colombo
34
Metropolitan Region and Suburbs, CoMTrans” by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the
35
Ministry of Transport, Sri Lanka. The authors would like to express their gratitude to Secretary, Ministry of
36
Transport and all the members of the steering committee of the CoMTrans project; all the officers of the JICA
37
and the Ministry of Transport involved in the CoMTrans project; Professor Amal S. Kumarage and Professor
38
J.M.S.J. Bandara, University of Moratuwa; Dr. Shinya Hanaoka, Tokyo Institute of Technology; and the all
39
project team members of CoMTrans.
40
41
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