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Planetary beat, solar wind and terrestrial climate

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The Sun's emission of luminosity and Solar Wind is constantly changing. This solar variability is driven by a planetary beat because the Solar-Planetary system behaves like a multi-body system constantly adjusting their motions around a common centre of gravity. The solar influence on terrestrial climate and environments seems primarily to go via the interaction of the Solar Wind with the Earth's magnetosphere. This generates changes in shielding capacity, geomagnetic activity, atmospheric pressure, external gravity and Earth's rate of rotation. The correlation between changes in solar activity and Earth's rate of rotation is indicative of a forcing function via changes in Solar Wind emission (not luminosity). Changes in rotation (LOD) affects not only the atmospheric circulation but also the ocean circulation. Changes in ocean circulation lead to the redistribution of oceanic water masses (recorded by sea level changes) and water-stored heat (recorded by paleoclimate). Changes in ocean circulation have strong effects on terrestrial climate. During Grand Solar Minima (the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minima) the Earth's experienced a speeding-up in the rate of rotation as evidenced by significant reorganisations of the currents in the North Atlantic. This lead to the establishment of periods of cold climatic conditions, known as Little Ice Ages. The next Grand Solar Minimum is due at about 2030-2040. We must assume that this will be a period of resumed cold climatic conditions, may be even Little Ice Age conditions.
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Chapter 2 – in: Solar Wind: Emission, Technologies and Impacts – p. 47-66, 2012
PLANETARY BEAT, SOLAR WIND AND
TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE
Nils-Axel Mörner
Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden
ABSTRACT
The Sun’s emission of luminosity and Solar Wind is constantly changing. This solar
variability is driven by a planetary beat because the Solar-Planetary system behaves like a
multi-body system constantly adjusting their motions around a common centre of gravity.
The solar influence on terrestrial climate and environments seems primarily to go via the
interaction of the Solar Wind with the Earth’s magnetosphere. This generates changes in
shielding capacity, geomagnetic activity, atmospheric pressure, external gravity and
Earth’s rate of rotation. The correlation between changes in solar activity and Earth’s rate
of rotation is indicative of a forcing function via changes in Solar Wind emission (not
luminosity). Changes in rotation (LOD) affects not only the atmospheric circulation but
also the ocean circulation. Changes in ocean circulation lead to the redistribution of
oceanic water masses (recorded by sea level changes) and water-stored heat (recorded by
paleoclimate). Changes in ocean circulation have strong effects on terrestrial climate.
During Grand Solar Minima (the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minima) the Earth’s
experienced a speeding-up in the rate of rotation as evidenced by significant
reorganisations of the currents in the North Atlantic. This lead to the establishment of
periods of cold climatic conditions, known as Little Ice Ages. The next Grand Solar
Minimum is due at about 2030-2040. We must assume that this will be a period of
resumed cold climatic conditions, may be even Little Ice Age conditions.
Keywords: Solar Wind, Planetary beat, Solar-terrestrial interaction, Earth’s rotation, ocean
circulation, Solar Maxima and Minima
E-mail: morner@pog.nu.
Nils-Axel Mörner
2
INTRODUCTION
The Sun’s activity is constantly changing. These changes follow cyclic pattern of fairly
strict frequency. The 11 years sunspot cycle may be the most well known cycle. There are
both shorter and longer cycles, however. The origin of the cyclic behaviour in the Sun’s
variability is open for different interpretations.
The constantly adjusting motions of the planets around a common centre of mass
generates a gravitational beat within the planetary system, which induces cyclic pulses on the
Sun that are of similar frequency as those recorded in the Sun’s activity variations (e.g.
Landscheidt, 1976; Mörth and Schlamminger, 1979; Fairbridge, 1984; Mörner, 1984;
Scafetta, 2010; Fix, 2011).
Scafetta (2010) talks about “astronomical oscillations” which is the same as my
“planetary beat” (Mörner, 1984). He established an excellent correlation between the 60 years
terrestrial LOD cycle and the 60 years cycle of changes in the orbital speed of the Sun around
the centre of mass of the solar system (Scafetta, 2010, Figure 14), in line with the causal
connections here proposed (Figure 1).
In conclusion, a planetary beat (astronomical oscillation) as ultimate driver of the
variability in Solar activity seems much more reasonable than “a chronometer hidden in the
Sun” (Dicke, 1978).
This is illustrated in Figure 1, where the changes in solar activity are held to be controlled
by the planetary beat and where the out-going variables are the luminosity (light and energy)
and the Solar Wind (solar-magnetic plasma and particles).
Figure 1. Relations, here proposed, among planetary beat, solar variability and emission of luminosity
and Solar Wind.
Planetary Beat, Solar Wind and Terrestrial Climate
3
PLANETARY BEAT
Instead of fixed, “Keplerian”, motions of the planets around the Sun, the solar-planetary
system behaves like a multi-body system in its constantly adjusting motions around the
common centre of gravity. This implies that all the planetary bodies involved, including the
Sun, are affected by irregular gravitational and angular momentum forces; “a planetary beat”
(Mörner, 1984) or “astronomical oscillation” (Scafetta, 2010). Most of the forces (99%) are
generated by the big planets Jupiter (61.2%), Saturn (24.6%), Neptune (8.0%) and Uranus
(5.5%). Their beat on the Sun is proposed to generate the changes of solar activity recorder in
the solar cycles (Mörth and Schlamminger, 1979) and illustrated in Figures 1 and 2.
The planetary beat also affects the Earth and the Earth-Moon system (Mörner, 1984) as
illustrated in Figure 2. A very significant influence on Planet Earth seems to come from the
interaction of the Solar Wind with the Earth’s magnetosphere.
SOLAR WIND
The Sun emits luminosity and Solar Wind. Whilst the variations in luminosity over a
sunspot cycle is quite low (in the order of 0.2%) the changes in Solar Wind emission are quite
strong over a sunspot cycle: so for example, the velocity varying between ~400 km s-1 at slow
solar wind and ~750 km s-1 at fast solar wind. The Solar Wind is here claimed to have the
predominant controlling effect not only on the space environment and weather of Planet Earth
but also on the solar impact on Earth’s climate and global environments (Mörner, 2010, 2011)
as illustrated in Figure 2.
Figure 2. The interaction between planetary beat and solar variability, and changes in climate and
environments on Planet Earth.
Nils-Axel Mörner
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The interaction of the Solar Wind with the Earth’s magnetosphere (Figure 2) affects (1)
the Earth’s shielding capacity towards cosmic rays and by that probably the cloud formation,
(2) the geomagnetic intensity and by that the electric circuit in the ionosphere, (3) the
atmospheric pressure distribution and by that the wind systems, (4) the gravity distribution,
and (5) the Earth’s rate of rotation and by that the atmospheric and ocean circulation systems.
From this lead three ways to changes in the terrestrial climate and environments; viz: clouds,
winds and ocean circulation.
1. The Shielding Capacity
It is a well-known fact that the shielding capacity of the Earth’s magnetosphere against
cosmic rays varies with the Solar Wind changes. These variations are monitored by the
production of 14C in the atmosphere (e.g. Stuiver and Quay, 1980) and by the in-fall of 10Be at
the Earth’s surface (e.g. Bard et al., 2000).
According to Svensmark (e.g. 1998, 2007) the atmospheric flux of cosmic rays is likely
also to control the formation of clouds; generating more clouds during stronger flux and less
clouds during weaker flux.
2. Geomagnetics
The Solar Wind has a direct effect on the Earth’s magnetosphere. Hence it is not
surprising that there is a correlation among solar activity and geomagnetic activity (Cliver et
al., 1998). Stronger and weaker geomagnetic activity makes the Arctic circulation to switch
between zonal and meridional circulation according to Bucha (e.g. 1984), today known as the
Arctic Oscillation or AO (Thompson and Wallace, 1998). It also affects the electric circuit in
the ionosphere (Boberg and Lundstedt, 2002), which is another line of affecting the global
wind pattern, and by that climate and environment on the Earth (Figure 2).
The Earth’s geomagnetic field is controlled partly by the Earth’s own internal
geomagnetic field, and partly by the external contribution from the Heliomagnetic field via
the Solar Wind (as illustrated with opposed arrows in Figure 3). De Santis et al. (2012) have
recently suggested that there is a causal linkage between the spatial growth since AD 1600 of
the geomagnetic field low anomaly over the South Atlantic (SAA) and global changes in sea
level. The sea level data compared with (Jevrejeva et al., 2008) do, however, not represent a
firm solution of the actual changes in global sea level (better summarized in Figure 3 of
Mörner, 2004). At the same time any dislocation at the core/mantle boundary (Figure 3) will
lead to deformations of the sea surface topography as proposed by Mörner (1980).
3. Pressure
The atmospheric pressure distribution is affected by the Solar Wind interaction with the
magnetosphere and by the planetary gravitational beat on Planet Earth and the Earth-Moon
system (Figure 2). Any redistribution in the pressure pattern leads to readjustments in the
wind pattern.
Planetary Beat, Solar Wind and Terrestrial Climate
5
4. Gravity
The planetary beat on Planet Earth and the Earth-Moon system generates gravity pulses,
which are picked up in the configuration of the equipotential surfaces and in the tidal forces,
by that having the power of affecting the atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems (Figure
2).
5. Rotation
The Earth’s rate of rotation is constantly changing due to a number of different reasons;
viz. long-term tidal friction (e.g. Marsden and Cameron, 1966), core/mantle interaction and
geomagnetics (e.g. Braginsky, 1982; Rochester, 1984; Roberts et al., 2007), plate motions
(Mörner, 1989a), ocean circulation (Mörner, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1992), atmospheric
circulation (e.g. Hide and Dickey, 1990; Le Mouël et al., 2010), major earthquakes and
volcanic eruptions, etc.
Figure 3 gives a segment of the Earth from core to atmosphere with different layers and
sub-layers marked, along which differential rotation may take place (Mörner, 1996a, Table 1).
From Mörner, 1989a.
Figure 3. A segment of the Earth with different boundaries and layers, which may be affected by
differential rotation.
Nils-Axel Mörner
6
Several authors have noted a correlation between sunspot activity and Earth’s rate of
rotation (e.g. Kalinin and Kiselev, 1976; Golovkov, 1983; Mazzarella and Palumbo, 1988;
Gu, 1998; Rosen and Salstein, 2000; Kirov et al., 2002; Abarca del Rio et al., 2003;
Mazzarella, 2007, 2008; Mörner, 2010, Le Mouël et al., 2010; Scafetta, 2010, 2012).
These correlations may seem incomprehensible from the view of changes in solar
luminosity emission. It terms of corresponding changes in the Solar Wind emission and their
interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere, the correlations becomes quite reasonable,
however (Mörner, 1996a).
The Earth’s rate of rotation is usually measured as changes in the length of the day
(LOD), where a speeding up or acceleration lead to a decrease in LOD and a slowing down or
deceleration leads to an increase in LOD.
The correlation between solar activity and LOD includes annual, decadal, multi-decadal
and centennial signals. Mörner (2010, Figure 2) noted a correlation between annual sunspot
numbers and LOD values from 1831 to 1995. Several authors have recorded a correlation
between the sunspot cycle and LOD; e.g. Kalinin and Kiselev, 1976; Golovkov, 1983;
Mazzarella and Palumbo, 1988; Abarca del Rio et al., 2003; Le Mouël et al. (2010). Kirov et
al. (2002) found a correlation between the 22-years Hail cycle and LOD. Mazzarella (2007,
2008) and Scafetta (2010) documented a close correlation between the 60-years cycle in solar
activity and in LOD. On the longer-term basis, Mörner (2010, 2011) showed the Grand Solar
Minima of the Spörer Minimum, the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum
corresponded to periods of speeding-ups in the Earth’s rate of rotation, whilst the Solar
Maxima corresponds to slowing-downs in the Earth’s rate of rotation (as further discussed
below and illustrated in Figures 4-5).
The correlation between changes in solar activity and Earth’s rate of rotation (Figure 2)
can only be understood in terms of Solar Wind interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere
(Mörner, 1996a). This is strongly supported also by the correlations established between solar
activity and cosmogenic isotopes (e.g. Stuiver and Quay, 1980; Bard et al., 2000; Bond et al.,
2001), solar activity and geomagnetics (e.g. Bucha, 1984; Krivova et al., 2007; Mufti and
Shah, 2011), and Solar Wind variations and various terrestrial parameters (e.g. Boberg and
Lundstedt, 2002).
6. Impact
The variations in solar activity lead to the emission of luminosity as well as of Solar
Wind (Figure 1). Whilst the changes in luminosity are too small to have any major effects on
the terrestrial systems, the variations Solar Wind, via its interaction with the Earth’s
magnetosphere, lead to quite drastic changes (Figure 2), which are likely to generate
significant changes in Earth’s climate and environments (Mörner, 1996a, 2010).
SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL INTERACTION
There seems to be four lines (Figure 2), along which solar variability may affect the
terrestrial changes in climate and environments; viz. (1) direct luminosity effects, (2)
Planetary Beat, Solar Wind and Terrestrial Climate
7
variations in cloud formation according to the Svensmark theory, (3) variations in
atmospheric circulation and wind, and (4) variations in ocean circulation.
Before discussing these different lines of solar-terrestrial interaction, it must be
emphasized that there has often been an incorrect attribution of recorded changes as
originating from “solar irradiance” when they in fact originate from “Solar Wind”.
The “solar irradiance curve” of Bard et al. (2000) should rather be labelled “a Solar Wind
curve” (below Figure 5; Mörner, 2010, 2011) as it is constructed from the variations in
cosmogenic nuclides controlled by the variations in shielding capacity of the Earth’s
geomagnetic field.
Similarly, the “reconstruction of total irradiance since 1700” by Krivova et al. (2007; cf.
Scafetta, 2011, Figure 15) is based on surface magnetic flux, which is strongly controlled by
the Solar Wind interaction with the magnetosphere and has nothing to do with changes in
irradiance (Figure 2).
The excellent correlation for the last 150 years between changes in the length of the solar
cycle and global mean temperature (Friis-Christensen and Lassen, 1991) may, theoretically,
refer to solar irradiance as well as Solar Wind (Figure 2).
Eddy (1976) proposed that Little Ice Ages occurred at periods of solar minima. Indeed,
there are good correlations between cooling events over northern Europe, the North Atlantic
and the Arctic and the timing of the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Grand Solar Minima.
During these minima the Earth experienced speeding-up phases in the rate of rotation due to
decreases in Solar Wind emission during Solar Minima (Mörner, 2010, 2011; cf. below:
Figures 4-5).
1. Luminosity
Very much has been written about possible direct effect on Earth’s climate from changes
in the solar energy output. The variability between the sunspot cycles seems far too small,
however (e.g. Willson, 1997). One way of trying to overcome this problem has been to
assume hypothetical amplifying factors (e.g. Hoyt and Schatten, 1993; Lean et al., 1995; Lean
and Rind, 1999).
The correlations observed between changes in solar variability and various climatic
parameters seem much better understood in terms of effect via the Solar Wind emission,
however (Figure 2).
This dose not mean that direct solar luminosity must have zero effects on Earth’s climate,
only that these effects must be small to subordinate.
2. Cloud Formation
Variations in cloud formation as a function of a variable flux of cosmic rays in the upper
atmosphere (due to changes in the shielding capacity generated by the Solar Wind interaction
with the magnetosphere) have been proposed by Svensmark (e.g. 1998, 2007; Svensmark and
Calder, 2007). This may well be an important way of modulating Earth’s climate.
Nils-Axel Mörner
8
3. Wind
The global wind pattern and atmospheric circulation have a strong controlling function on
regional and global climate. Jelbring (1998) even talks about “wind driven climate”. The
annual LOD changes seem well balanced by changes in atmospheric angular momentum (e.g.
Barnes et al., 1983). For longer-term LOD changes, the oceanic circulation and core/mantle
coupling must also be considered. The speed and geographic pattern of the jet streams are
strongly linked to changes in LOD. The alternations between zonal and meridional circulation
in the Arctic are linked to changes in geomagnetic activity (Bucha, 1983, 1984) where the
solar forcing must be driven by the Solar Wind variability (Figure 2). These changes are
today known as the Arctic Oscillation or AO (Thompson and Wallace, 1998).
Boberg and Lundstedt (2002) proposed that the North Atlantic Oscillation was a function
changes in the electric circuit induced by Solar Wind interaction with the magnetosphere
(Figure 2).
Le Mouël et al. (2010) showed that there is a good correlation between the sunspot
cycles, the flux of cosmic rays in the upper atmosphere and LOD. This is indicative of a
solar-terrestrial linkage via changes in the Solar Wind (cf. above and Figure 2). They assumed
that the changes in LOD were a function only of changes in atmospheric circulation.
Similarly, Mazzarella (2007, 2008) and Scafetta (2010) discussed the 60-years cycle in terms
of atmospheric circulation (cf. below).
Whilst the feedback coupling between changes in atmospheric circulation and LOD
usually seems to be balances on the inter- to intra-annual basis (e.g. Barnes et al., 1983), the
feedback coupling between changes in ocean circulation and LOD usually takes decades to
become balanced (Mörner, 1984, 1995a).
4. Ocean Circulation
Ocean circulation is usually discussed in terms of thermohaline circulation. The global
circulation systems of oceanic surface currents must, however, also be strongly dependent on
the Earth’s rate of rotation (Mörner, 1984). The equatorial currents are lagging-behind the
rotation of the solid Earth, and the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current bring hot equatorial
water from low latitudes to high latitudes in the North Atlantic and Pacific, respectively,
which has to have a strong feedback coupling to the rate of rotation (Mörner, 1984, 1988,
1990).
The El Niño/ENSO events include a transfer of angular momentum from the solid Earth
to the hydrosphere and back again, allowing the equatorial current in the Pacific to reverse its
direction and transport hot water eastwards, blocking the cold Humboldt Current and rising
sea level some 30 cm along the American west coasts (Mörner, 1989b, 1996a, Figure 10,
2012, Figure 4).
In the North Atlantic, Mörner (1984, 1995a) recorded 16 pulses in marine biota, sea level
changes and regional temperature, which he interpreted in terms of an interchange of angular
momentum between the hydrosphere and the solid earth in a feedback coupling generating
pulses in the Gulf Stream beat. Similar pulses were recorded in the Kuroshio Current, and in a
back-and-forth wave of equatorial water masses in the Pacific–Indian Ocean (Mörner, 1993a,
1995b).
Planetary Beat, Solar Wind and Terrestrial Climate
9
Whilst the global sea level changes prior to ~6000 BP were dominated by the glacial
eustatic rise in sea level, they were during the last 6000 years dominated by these irregular
relocations of ocean water masses, which obviously must be linked (in a feedback coupling)
to changes in Earth’s rate of rotation, ultimately driven by solar–planetary changes (as
illustrated in Figures 1 and 2).
During the last glaciation maximum (LGM) some 20,000 years ago when sea level was in
the order of 130 m lower, Earth’s rate of rotation was considerably faster, giving rise to a
significantly increase in the lagging-behind of the equatorial currents (Mörner, 1995a, 1996a).
Even during the deglacial phase there were large-scale changes in ocean circulation and rate
of rotation affecting the course and intensity of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current
(Mörner, 1993b, 1995b, 1996a, 1996b). This also offers a way of understanding long-distance
correlations with changes in the Indian Summer monsoon as recorded in cores in the Indian
Ocean (Kessarkar et al., 2011).
The 60-years cycle recorded in solar activity and LOD (Mazzarella, 2007, 2008; Scafetta,
2010) must certainly also have affected the oceanic circulation, as it is found in different
marine environments scattered widely over the globe (e.g. Black et al., 1999; Patterson et al.,
2004; Klyashtorin et al., 2009; Mörner, 2012). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a
60-years periodicity. Like the ENSO events (cf. above), it seems also to include an oceanic
component of interchange of angular momentum.
The data from the Arctic (Klyashtorin et al., 2009) seem especially relevant. The stocks
of herring and cod in the Barents Sea fluctuate with a 60-years periodicity, which correlates
with the changes in Arctic temperature, in ocean water temperature and in ice cover
conditions in the Barents Sea; all exhibiting an ~60-years periodicity. Klyashtorin et al.
(2009) noted that the changes in ice cover reflect the “delivery of warm Atlantic water to the
region” and that “the main source of heat delivered to the Arctic basin is warm water inflow
from the North Atlantic Stream”. This implies that the Gulf Stream system must exhibit a
beating cycle of 60 years, just as the LOD cycle and solar activity cycle, in full agreement
with the proposal of Mörner (1984, 2010, 2011, and illustrated in 2012, Figure 5).
The Gulf Stream system seems extremely sensitive to changes in the rate of rotation. Any
change in rotation may be compensated by a change in water mass transport within the Gulf
Stream system, and, vice versa, any change in the water transport (volume as well as
direction) should affect the Earth’s rate of rotation (Mörner, 1984). The transport of warm
equatorial water along the Gulf Stream may be predominantly directed along its northern
branches to northwestern Europe and the Arctic basin (stage A in Figure 4), or along the
southern branch to southwest Europe and northwest Africa (stage B in Figure 4) as shown by
Mörner (1996a, 2010). Paleoclimatic time series with an annual resolution made it possible to
record the temporal and spatial changes in climate for the last millennium over the east
Atlantic to west European region (Mörner, 2010).
During the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Solar Minima Arctic water penetrated all the
way down to mid-Portugal and the Gulf Stream transport was concentrated along the southern
branch (stage B in Figure 4). This lead to Little Ice Age conditions in the north and central
Europe, and opposed warming conditions in Gibraltar region and Northwest Africa.
During the Solar Maxima the situation was reversed; the warm Atlantic water was
transported far up into the Barents Sea region, making west Europe and the Arctic unusually
warm, whilst the Gibraltar region and northwest Africa suffered cool conditions because of
decreased transport along the southern branch of the Gulf Stream (stage A in Figure 4).
Nils-Axel Mörner
10
Figure 4. The Gulf Stream and its changes in distribution of water masses at Grand Solar Maxima (A)
and Grand Solar Minima (B). During the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Solar Minima (B) Little Ice Age
conditions prevailed in northwest Europe. The next Grand Solar Minimum is due at around 2030-2040
(Figure 5).
Figure 5. Solar variability (below) and Atlantic stages A and B periods (above). The “solar irradiance”
curve (below) of Bard et al. (2000) records the changes in Solar Wind, not irradiance, and must hence
be relabelled “a curve of the changes in Solar Wind activity” (therefore their vertical scale of irradiance
is put in brackets and quotation marks). The upper graph gives the changes between stage A and stage
B conditions in the North Atlantic region as given in Figure 4.
The switches between those two modes of ocean circulation in the North Atlantic are
driven by the speeding-up of the Earth’s rotation at Solar Minima and the slowing-down at
Solar Maxima as a function of the variability in the Solar Wind emission and its interaction
with Earth’s magnetosphere (as illustrated in Figure 2, and Mörner, 1996a, 2010, 2011,
2012).
Planetary Beat, Solar Wind and Terrestrial Climate
11
Figure 5 gives the changes in Solar Wind activity during the last 800 years as established
by Bard et al. (2000) and termed “solar irradiance” though it, in fact, is a Solar Wind activity
curve (Mörner, 2010). The alternation between solar maxima and solar minima (Spörer,
Maunder, Dalton) is clearly recorded. The corresponding changes in the Atlantic circulation
with switches between stages A and B conditions (Figure 4) fit the changes in Solar Wind
beat very well as show in the upper graph of Figure 5.
5. Integration of Variables
Surely Earth’s climate is affected by changes in atmospheric circulation as well as by
changes in ocean circulation. Variations in cloud formation in response to the Solar Wind
modulation of Earth’s shielding capacity and by that the flux of cosmic rays in the
atmosphere may have significant climatic effects (as proposed by Svensmark, 1998, 2007).
Direct effects from the changes in luminosity are considered to be small.
CONCLUSIONS
The solar influence on terrestrial climate and environment primarily goes via the
interaction of variations in the Solar Wind with the Earth’s magnetosphere and its effects on
shielding, geomagnetism, pressure, gravity and especially rotation. Direct effects from the
changes in luminosity seem to be small to subordinate.
Changes in the ocean circulation seem closely linked to changes in Earth’s rate of
rotation (LOD). The correlations recorded between changes in solar activity and LOD must
go via the Solar Wind and its effects on the rate of rotation, and the Planetary beat (Figures 1
and 2).
The changes in ocean circulation have strong effects on the terrestrial climate, especially
in relation to the changes between at the Grand Solar Minima (the Spörer, Maunder and
Dalton Minima) with Little Ice Age conditions, and Grand Solar Maxima with warm climate
conditions (as illustrated in Figure 4; cf. Mörner 1996a, 2010, 2011).
The next Grand Solar Minimum has been extrapolated to occur at around 2030 by
Landscheidt (2003), at around 2040 by Mörner et al. (2003), at around 2030 by Klyashtorin et
al. (2009), at 2030-2040 by Harrara (2010), at 2042 ±11 by Abdassamatov (2010), at 2030-
2040 by Easterbrook (2011), at around 2035 by Malberg (2012) and at around 2030 by
Lyubushin and Klyashtorin (2012), implying a fairly congruent picture despite quite different
ways of transferring past signals into future predictions. In analogy with the past Solar
Minima, one may assume that the future minimum at around 2030-2040 will also generate
Little Ice Age climatic conditions (Figure 4).
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The theory of an interchange of angular momentum between the solid Earth and the
hydrosphere was first presented at the international symposium on Climatic Changes on a
Nils-Axel Mörner
12
Yearly to Millennial Basis in Stockholm in 1983, and at the IAMAP/IAPSO conference in
Hawaii in 1985. The impact of Solar Wind changes on Earth’s climate was presented at the
IUGG conference in Birmingham in 1999. The rotational changes in relation to Solar
Maxima/Minima alterations and its impact for future climate was presented at the
EGS/AGU/EUG conference in Nice in 2003. References are also made to the INTAS 97-
31008 project on “Geomagnetism and Climate”, co-ordinated by the present author from the
department of Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics at Stockholm University. Figure 1 was
constructed on the basis of a photography of the setting Sun in SW Sweden taken by my
friend Dr. Bjarne Lembke. I am indebted to Professor Don J. Easterbrook for constructive
reviewing of the paper.
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Reviewed by: Professor Don J. Easterbrook
Professor emeritus in geology at Western Washington University, Bellingham, USA.
dbunny14@yahoo.co
Solar Wind: Emission, Technologies and Impacts
Editors: Carlos Daniel Escaropa Borrega and Angela Fernanda Beirós Cruz
https://www.novapublishers.com/catalog/product_info.php?products_id=31178
Nova Science Publishers, Inc. August 2012 – ISBN: 987-1-62081-979-1
... Increasing LOD means decreasing speed of rotation and increase of warm water flow towards the Arctic. LOD-acceleration during deep solar minima and deceleration (retarding) during maxima is predicted by Mörner [75]. He proposed a simple mechanism: The solar wind intensity affects Earth's rotation. ...
... The magnetic cycles are slightly biased to higher deceleration than acceleration, which means that the overall result of a complete magnetic cycle is deceleration. This supports the relation proposed by [75]. If the same relation holds back to 1700, this means that a part of the linear trend in LOD may be explained by the systematic increase in LOD with the Hale cycle. ...
... Increased spring insolation is responsible for the in- In the original BIE data [70] found a good correlation with low pass filtered SCL, indicating that the low frequency BIE variations may be related to solar activity. The relation with SCL is still present (r 2 = 0.48) with the revised BIE-data, and this led us to investigate the solar wind as a forcing agent as proposed by [75]. The solar wind may interact directly by increased corpuscular pressure on the earth's atmosphere during geomagnetic storms (CMEs), in the sense that increased corpuscular activity causes a deceleration of zonal atmospheric circulation. ...
... Pokud připustíme, že sluneční aktivita je svázána s přenosem orbitálních rotačních momentů planet na Slunce do formy spinového rotačního momentu (Landscheidt 1987, Mörner 2012, Salvador 2013, pak pro střední společnou periodu všech planet okolo barycentra musí platit, že zejména Jupiter jako gravitačně i momentově dominantní těleso SS musí přibližně 11,4 let (střední délka slunečního cyklu) urychlovat rotaci Slunce a přibližně 11,4 let zpomalovat rotaci Slunce. Za celou periodu přibližně 22,8 let musí Jupiter oběhnout barycentrum a Slunce tak, že půl cyklu je pořadí (trojúhelník) Ju-B-S a půl cyklu je pořadí (trojúhelník) S-B-Ju (viz Salvador 2013). ...
... Jednou z nejdůležitějších period synchronizace celé SS je Joseho perioda přibližně 178 let (Jose 1965 (2013) ukázal, že společná synchronizace V-E-Ju má periodu blízkou 22 rokům. Významnou periodou ve sluneční aktivitě je de Vriesův cyklus 208 let (Mörner 2012), který je vidět i ve spektru 14 C (Abreu 2012). Tato perioda je blízko vzájemné periodě Jupitera a poloviny periody oběhu Slunce okolo barycentra (T SB /2 ≈ 12,5 let). ...
Conference Paper
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V letech 2016 a 2017 byla odhadnuta hmotnost hypotetické IX. planety na 10 hmotností Země na základě gravitačního působení trans-Neptunických objektů (TNO), které mají zcela nenáhodně synchronizovány své orbity (Batygin and Brown 2016, Witze 2016, Leon et al. 2017). Na základě modelu sluneční aktivity (Kalenda a Málek 2006, 2008, Mörner 2012, Salvador 2013), který odráží vzájemné pozice mezi planetami, Sluncem a barycentrem Sluneční soustavy, má na polohu barycentra vliv také rozložení významných nesymetrických hmot na periferii Sluneční soustavy. Pokud jsme použili diskový model Sluneční soustavy, pak odhadovaná hmotnost největšího tělesa byla cca 2 hmotnosti Země a jeho velká poloosa byla nereálně malá cca 105 AU (Kalenda a Málek 2006). Pokud jsme použili analýzu rotačních momentů klastru neznámých těles, tak jejich celková hmotnost byla odhadnuta na 2,3 hmotnosti Země a poloměr středu klastru byl odhadnuta na 1140 AU (Kalenda a Málek 2008). Pokud jsme zvolili za základ rozložení hmot membránový model, tak největší planeta ve 3. vlně (grupě kamenných těles) by měla hmotnost cca 1 hmotnost Země a střed vlny by měl být okolo 270 AU (Pintr a kol. 2008). V tomto příspěvku jsme předpokládali existenci pouze jednoho dominantního tělesa za Kuiprovým pásem, které má zásadní vliv na dráhy TNO. Periodu oběhu Slunce okolo barycentra jsme upřesnili na základě všech dostupných period sluneční aktivity a klimatických změn tak, že jsme minimalizovali součtovou kvadratickou chybovou funkci interferenčních period Slunce-barycentrum-Jupiter, Slunce-barycentrum-Saturn, Slunce-barycentrum-Uran a Slunce-barycentrum-Neptun od pozorovaných dominantních period ve sluneční aktivitě a klimatu (11 let, 22 let, 33 let, 61,3 let, 79,2 let, 155 let a 208 let). Potom aktuální střední perioda oběhu Slunce okolo barycentra je 25,14 let. Pro předpokládané velké poloosy orbit mezi 550, 1000 a 2000 AU vychází odhad hmotnosti IX. planety na méně než 4 MZ, 2 MZ a 1 MZ i při velké excentricitě dráhy. Pokud by na orbitě s velkou poloosou 550 AU byla IX. planeta s hmotností 10 mZ, jak předpokládají Batygin and Brown (2016), pak by oběžná doba Slunce okolo barycentra musela být delší než 50 let, což nebylo pozorováno ve sluneční aktivitě.
... Studying the correlation between the orbital period of planets and solar variation assumes that the interaction of the forces of gravity (tidal force) and magnetism along with the thermodynamic principles generate the internal dynamics of the Sun. The approaches such as comparing sea level rise and global temperature change with sunspot variations reveal the phase (also phase reversal) (Mörner, 2012). The planetary beat generates a sensitive solar tachocline zone which controls the solar irradiance. ...
... The planetary beat generates a sensitive solar tachocline zone which controls the solar irradiance. Solar wind emission affects the Earth environment and the Earth-Moon system directly via tidal forces and angular momentum has been discussed by Mörner (2012). Cionco & Compagnucci (2012) argued that the giant planets quasi alignments repeat every ∼ 170 years which only corresponds to the start of Maunder (Cionco & Soon, 2015) and Dalton minima (Javaraiah, 2005). ...
Thesis
The causes of solar variations and their impact on climatic environments have been andstill are the subject of large debate. The possible influence of planetary perturbations on thesolar cycles have also been recently the subject of multiples controverses. The goal of thepresent thesis is to provide some insight on this problem by a new computation of the planetaryperturbations on the Sun, at short, middle and and long time scales.At first, we describe our current understanding of the physical causes of the solar activityand their major observable manifestations, such as the sun spots records. We provide somehistorical background for the numerous records of solar activity proxies. We also review thedifferent approaches to explain the solar planetary relationships through an analysis of thepublished literature.The main purpose of the present work is to study the possible influence of the planetarygravitational perturbations on the solar cycles. In a first part, we analyse the short, middle andlong term solar activity behavior by using the quasiperiodic approximations provided by thefrequency map analysis method to determine the main periodicities of the solar cycles. Thisallows us to provide some reconstruction of the long timescale changes of solar activity variation.The reconstructed activity series are compared with the observed solar activity data and thelong term natural archives such as radioisotopes proxies. The reconstructed series still preservethe well recorded historical grand minima and maxima events and provide us some extendeddata for the study of the long timescale evolution of solar cycles.There has already been some attempts to explain the direct or partial influences of anexternal (e.g., the planets ) or an internal (e.g., its dynamo) effects on the solar changes. In thepresent work, we investigate the planetary tidal influence on solar cycle variations. We havedeveloped a realistic dynamical model for describing the tidal effect exerted by the perturbationof the planets of the Solar system on the deformation of the non-spherical Sun’s surface whichmay partially modulate its activity variations. The model is limited to the dynamical effects ofthe planets on the Sun and do not take account any physical interior process of the Sun. TheSun is considered as an homogeneous three axial non spherical body.The variations of the potential coefficients induced by the effects of body tides are com-puted, using the last INPOP planetary ephemerides and the long term solutions La2004. Thesemi-analytical expressions of the deformation coefficients of potential are derived. Thus, theestimations of the planetary tides effects of each planets and their combinations are comparedto the solar activity records and their reconstructed series. Hence, the correlations between thevariations of the deformation of Sun’s surface and its activity records are discussed.
... The ocean surface circulation can be simplified in 8 dominant systems and their directions of motions (Fig. 1). The ocean surface circulation system is super-sensitive to changes in Earth's rate of rotation in a feedback coupling and interchange of angular momentum (Mörner, 1984(Mörner, , 1985(Mörner, , 1987(Mörner, , 1988(Mörner, , 1989(Mörner, , 1993(Mörner, , 2010(Mörner, , 2011(Mörner, , 2012(Mörner, , 2015. Fig. 1. ...
... Main global ocean surface circulation patterns: the main equatorial currents (4) lagging behind the Earths's rotation, the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream systems bringing warm equatorial to mid and high latitudes (2), the Southern Hemisphere currents bringing cold Antarctic water to low latitudes and being responsible for significant coastal upwelling (7), the southward flow of Arctic water (1) cooling Atlantic mid-latitudes, the Circum-Antarctic current (8) sealing off a cold Antarctica. (from Mörner, 1987Mörner, , 1988Mörner, , 1989Mörner, , 2011Mörner, , 2012. ...
Chapter
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... Slunce reaguje svou aktivitou na změnu gravitačního pole danou vzájemným postavením všech planet ve Sluneční soustavě (Kalenda, Málek 2006, Wilson et al. 2013, Mörner 2012, 2015, Scafetta 2010, Zharkova et al. 2015. V čase se tak mění jak vzdálenost Slunce od těžiště Sluneční soustavy (Jose 1965), tvar orbity Slunce (Jakubcová, Pick 1987, Charvátová 1988, 1990, Charvátová, Střeštík 1991, tak také orbitální a spinové rotační momenty Slunce a planet (Kalenda, Málek 2006) a momenty hybnosti (Kalenda, Málek 2008), které korelují se sluneční aktivitou, jak ukázal už Jose (1965). ...
Preprint
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Pohyb vody a tepla na Zemi představuje z fyzikálního hlediska chaotický systém, jehož chování je v detailu nepředpověditelné. Avšak v mnohaletých řadách lze vypozorovat, že dochází ke kvazicyklickým změnám rozložení povrchové teploty a srážek. Tyto změny se nazývají klimatické cykly. Jedním z významných vlivů, které cykly způsobuje, je proměnná sluneční aktivita, která má za následek změny slunečního osvitu Země. Ta ovlivňuje povrchovou teplotu Země, proudění atmosféry a oceánů, a konečně změny skupenství vody. Záření, vycházející ze Slunce, je Zemí zachycováno jenom velmi nepatrně. Země zachytí přibližně jednu dvoumiliardtinu, tj. 1,8⋅10 17 W z celkového výkonu Slunce. 3,85⋅10 26 W. V době minima sluneční aktivity byl změřen tok slunečního záření 1361 W/m 2 (Kopp, Lean 2011). Sluneční irradiace je tok sluneční energie procházející plochou 1 m², kolmou na směr paprsků, za 1 s ve střední vzdálenosti Země od Slunce (1 AU) měřený mimo zemskou atmosféru.
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The Sun’s activity constantly varies in characteristic cyclic patterns. With new material and new analyses, we reinforce the old proposal that the driv- ing forces are to be found the planetary beat on the Sun and the Sun’s mo- tions around the center of mass. This is a Special Issue published on Pattern Recognition in Physics where various aspects of the Planetary–Solar–Terrestrial interaction are highlighted in 12 independent papers. The Special Issue ends with General Conclusions co-authored by 19 prominent specialists on solar- terrestrial interaction and terrestrial climate. They conclude that the driving factor of solar variability must emerge from gravitational and inertial effects on the Sun from the planets and their satellites. By this, an old hypothesis seems elevated into a firm theory, maybe even a new paradigm.
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Following the successful London climate conference of 2016, Professor Nils-Axel Mörner, Pamela Matlack-Klein and Maria da Assunção Araújo are organizing a high-level conference on The basic science of a changing climate at the Facultate de Letras (Humanities Faculty) in the University of Porto, Portugal, for two action-packed days – Friday 7 September and Saturday 8 September 2018. The website for the conference is https://www.portoconference2018.org/.
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Accelerations and decelerations in the Earth’s rate of rotation of more than one year’s duration have generally been assumed to be balanced by corresponding core motions. It is shown, however, that changes of duration from El Niño events to 50–150 years are primarily balanced by, or rather driven by, hydrospheric motions, i.e. oceanic circulation changes. Two (or three) of the major LOD changes during the last 350 years are linked to geomagnetic “jerks”. Whilst the corresponding interchange of angular momentum primarily seems to have taken place between the “solid” Earth and the hydrosphere, the jerks seem to represent related flow changes in the outermost part of the outer core.
Article
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There is a strong linkage between Earth's rate of rotation and the changes in ocean circulation. The ocean circulation changes, in their turn, are strongly linked to the paleoclimatic evolution on the bordering land masses. This is due to the high heat storing capacity of the oceans and the ocean-air-land heat flux. We propose that the paleoclimatic changes on the decadal-to-millennial time scale are primarily driven by the causal connection between Earth's rotation and ocean circulation changes in a feed-back coupling relation. This operational mechanism is recorded in the ENSO/non-ENSO alternations and in the European instrumental records of the last 300 years. It seems successfully applicable to the historical climatic records, the 1000 AD shifts, the 16 Holocene "super-ENSO" events, the high-amplitude changes at 13-10 Ka BP, and the 20 Ka oceanic circulation. This imply that the oceanic system - in this case the ocean surface circulation - has a much more important role than previously appreciated which should significantly affect our modelling of past and future climatic changes.
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At around 2040-2050 we will be in a new major Solar Minimum. It is to be expected that we will then have a new "Little Ice Age" over the Arctic and NW Europe. The past Solar Minima were linked to a general speeding-up of the Earth's rate of rotation. This affected the surface currents and southward penetration of Arctic water in the North Atlantic causing "Little Ice Ages" over northwestern Europe and the Arctic.
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Analyses the decades to millennial cycles in climate and the possible mechanisms involved in the solar and Milankovitch cycles. -from Author
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Based on a quantitative study of the common fluctuations of 14 Ca nd10Be production rates, we have derived a time series of the solar magnetic variability over the last 1200 years. This record is converted into irradiance variations by linear scaling based on previous studies of sun-like stars and of the sun’s behavior over the last few centuries. The new solar irradiance record exhibits low values during the well-known solar minima centered at about 1900, 1810 (Dalton) and 1690 ad (Maunder). Further back in time, a rather long period between 1450 and 1750 ad is characterized by low irradiance values. A shorter period is centered at about 1200 ad, with irradiance slightly higher or similar to present day values. It is tempting to correlate these periods with the so-called ‘‘little ice age’’ and ‘‘medieval warm period’’, respectively. An accurate quantification of the climatic impact of this new irradiance record requires the use of coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models (GCMs). Nevertheless, our record is already compatible with a global cooling of about 0.5‐1°C during the ‘‘little ice age’’, and with a general cooling trend during the past millenium followed by global warming during the 20th century (Mann et al., 1999).
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With the introduction of geoid changes, the old concept of eustasy has to be changed. Eustasy is now defined as 'ocean level changes' regardless of causation. Mass redistribution leading to geoidal eustatic changes in the order of l03-l02 yr can probably be generated in the hydrosphere, asthenosphere, core/mantle interface and outer core. Some geoid eustatic changes can be ascribed to glacial volume changes whilst most others have another origin. Any change in the rotation or attraction potentials will affect the shape of the geoid surface. There are a large number of examples of a well established correlation between geoidal eustatic changes and geomagnetic changes. This gives evidence of a mutual origin in core/mantle changes. It also indicates that the surface gravity (lower harmonics) to a significant degree is controlled by the mass distribution at the core/mantle boundary and in the core. -from Author
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This chapter provides an experiment to test the hypothesis that changes in the sun's orbit around the barycenter of the solar system, specifically its radial acceleration, might be an influence that governs the sunspot cycle. The existence of a free-running model, which, when driven by the barycenter's movements, mimics the gross phase, timing, frequency, and relative amplitude of the historical sunspot cycle and suggests that it is possible. The model maintains gross agreement with the sunspot data, and when it loses synchronization tends to regain it even without resetting the initial conditions. It produces good results over a wide range of values for constants, meaning the result degrades gracefully if the oscillatory model is not exactly right. However, it would degrade catastrophically if the forcing function were wrong. It does not require knowledge of initial conditions or of the sunspot record to synchronize itself. In those times when it loses synchronization, such as the lulls between Cycles 5-6 and 14-15, restarting it with real-world initial conditions produces output that immediately matches the sunspot data.
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