Eurasian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy Power Supply: Generation and Storage Technologies in the Cost Optimal Mix

Conference Paper · November 2015with 4,163 Reads 
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DOI: 10.18086/swc.2015.06.01 ·
Conference: ISES Solar World Congress 2015, At Daegu
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Abstract
Increasing ecological problems provoked by human activities, including the fossil fuel based energy sector, emerge the development of a renewable energy (RE) based system as the way to stop pollution and global warming but also to reduce total energy system cost. Small population density and availability of various types of RE resources in Eurasian regions including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy resources enables the very promising project of building a Super Grid connecting different Eurasian regions' energy resources to reach synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. For every sub-region it is defined a cost-optimal distributed and centralized mix of energy technologies and storage options, optimal capacities and hourly generation. Charge and discharge profiles of storages are computed for regions interconnected by high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. System cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each sub-region are computed. The results show that a 100% RE-based system is lower in cost than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.

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Supplementary resource

  • ... To the knowledge of authors, it is the only existing research for a global energy interconnection based on 100% renewable electricity and it is carried out in full hourly resolution. The world is structured into 23 main regions, the resource assessment uses the methods of and the same technical and economic assumptions, whereas load assumptions and other assumptions can be found in more detail in the major research Bogdanov and Breyer, 2015;Barasa et al., 2018;Gulagi et al., 2017b;2017c;Barbosa et al., 2017). The scenario design uses the overnight approach and technical and financial assumptions for the year 2030. ...
    ... The role of storage is not much discussed in this paper, but detailed description can be found in Bogdanov and Breyer, 2015;Barasa et al., 2018;Gulagi et al., 2017b;2017c;Barbosa et al., 2017). Koskinen and Breyer (2016) provide insights on the role of storage in global and transcontinental energy system studies. ...
    ... Data are taken fromBogdanov and Breyer, 2015;Barasa et al., 2018;Gulagi et al., 2017b;2017c;Barbosa et al., 2017). ...
    Article
    The discussion about the benefits of a global energy interconnection is gaining momentum in recent years. The techno-economic benefits of this integration are broadly discussed for the major regions around the world. While there has not been substantial research on the techno-economic benefits, however, some initial results of the global energy interconnection are presented in this paper. Benefits achieved on the global scale are lower than the interconnections within the national and sub-national level. The world is divided into 9 major regions and the major regions comprise of 23 regions. When all the considered regions are interconnected globally, the overall estimated levelized cost of electricity is 52.5 €/MWh for year 2030 assumptions, which is 4% lower than an isolated global energy system. Further, the required installed capacities decrease by 4% for the fully interconnected system. Nevertheless, a more holistic view on the entire energy system will progress research on global energy interconnection as, synthetic power-to-X fuels and chemicals emerge as an important feature of the future sustainable global energy system with strong interactions of the power system not only to the supply, in energy fuel and chemicals trading globally, but also to the demand side. Global energy interconnection will be part of the solution to achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement and more research will help to better understand its impact and additional value.
  • ... The two regions considered in this paper are Eurasia [23], which lies between the latitudes of 37°and 78°, and has a high seasonal variation with higher electricity demand in winter than in summer. The peak load in winter in the Eurasian region is higher than the peak load for the summer. ...
    ... For the simulations of a100% RE system, it was observed that these two regions differ from each other considerably in regard to the renewable energy (RE) source which powers the electricity generation mix. In Eurasia, wind is the dominant source of power with less influence of photovoltaics (PV) [23]. In Southeast Asia, PV is the dominant source in power supply with less influence of wind [24,25]. ...
    ... The Eurasian region is divided into 13 sub-regions [23]. These are seven Federal  Region-wide energy systems, in which all the regions are independent (no high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid interconnections) and the electricity demand has to be covered by the respective sub-region's own generation; ...
    Conference Paper
    In this work, a 100% renewable energy (RE)-based energy system for the year 2030 for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim 1 , and Eurasia was prepared and evaluated and various impacts of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES) were researched on an hourly resolution for one year. To overcome the intermittency of RE sources and guarantee regular supply of electricity, energy sources are complemented by five energy storage options: batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), thermal energy storage (TES), (A-CAES) and power-togas (PtG). In a region-wide scenario the energy system integration is within a sub-region of the individual large areas of Southeast Asia and Eurasia. In this scenario simulation were performed with and without A-CAES integration. For Southeast Asia and Eurasia, the integration of A-CAES has an impact on the share of a particular storage used and this depends on the seasonal variation in RE generation, the supply share of wind energy and demand in the individual areas. For the region-wide scenario for Southeast Asia (region with low seasonal variation and lower supply share of wind energy) the share of A-CAES output was 1.9% in comparison to Eurasia (region with high seasonal variation and a high supply share of wind energy) which had 28.6%. The other impact which was observed was the distribution of the storage technologies after A-CAES integration, since battery output and PtG output were decreased by 72.9% and 21.6% (Eurasia) and 5.5% and 1.6% (Southeast Asia), respectively. However, a large scale grid integration reduces the demand for A-CAES storage drastically and partly even to zero due to substitution by grids, which has been only observed for A-CAES, but not for batteries and PtG. The most valuable application for A-CAES seems to be in rather decentralized or nationwide energy system designs and as a well-adapted storage for the typical generation profiles of wind energy.
  • ... The main features of the model are its flexibility and expandability. The model is composed of several power generation and storage technologies, respective installed capacities and different operation modes of these technologies, which are used to supply the electricity demand of power, water desalination and synthetic natural gas (SNG) generation sectors [39], [40]. The energy system model can be separated into market and regulatory models. ...
    ... Regulatory models only take the long-term energy system structure into account and short-term market mechanisms are not considered. This model has already been applied to several regions up to now [39]- [43], and a detailed description can be found in those studies. Further technical and financial assumptions can be found in the Supplementary Material in the appendix of this paper. ...
    ... The financial assumptions for capital expenditures (capex), operational expenditures (opex) and lifetimes of all components are provided in the Supplementary Material (in Table 1). References for the financial and technical assumptions can be found in Bogdanov and Breyer [39], [40]. Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is set to 7% for all scenarios, but for residential PV self-consumption WACC is set to 4%, due to lower financial return requirements. ...
    Conference Paper
    The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, comprised of 19 countries, is currently facing a serious challenge to supply their growing economies with secure, affordable and clean electricity. The MENA region holds a high share of proven crude oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Further, it is predicted to have increasing population growth, energy demand, urbanization and industrialization, each of which necessitates a comparable expansion of infrastructure, resulting in further increased energy demand. When planning this expansion, the effects of climate change, land use change and desertification must be taken into account. The MENA region has an excellent potential of renewable energy (RE) resources, particularly solar PV and wind energy, which can evolve to be the main future energy sources in this area. In addition, the costs of RE are expected to decrease relative to conventional energy sources, making a transition to RE across the region economically feasible. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for the MENA region in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Three scenarios have been evaluated according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 61 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 55 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 37 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by 6% in the system compared to the non-integrated sectors. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
  • ... In this study, an hourly resolved model, called the LUT energy system model, based on Matlab software (R2016b) [32] and the Mosek ApS optimizer [33] is used. This model has been introduced and applied to several regions so far [14,[34][35][36][37][38][39], and a detailed description of the model can be found in those studies. The model is based on a multi-node approach that is composed of power generation and storage technologies, the current installed capacities of RE conversion technologies and different operation modes of these technologies. ...
    ... Similar or some of the aforementioned scenarios have been assessed in other parts of the world [14,[34][35][36][37][38][39], which make these studies well comparable. ...
    ... The hourly resolution profiles for solar PV (single-axis tracking and optimally tilted), CSP and wind energy are calculated according to Bogdanov and Breyer [34,35]. The aggregated profiles of solar PV (single-axis tracking and optimally tilted), CSP solar field and wind energy normalized to maximum capacity averaged for North America are presented in Figure 4. ...
    Article
    In this study power generation and demand are matched through a least-cost mix of renewable energy (RE) resources and storage technologies for North America by 2030. The study is performed using an hourly resolved model based on a linear optimization algorithm. The geographical, technical and economic potentials of different forms of RE resources enable the option of building a super grid between different North American regions. North America (including the U.S., Canada and Mexico in this paper), is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. Four scenarios have been evaluated: region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and an integrated scenario. The levelised cost of electricity is found to be quite attractive in such a system, with the range from 63 €/MWh el in a decentralized case and 42 €/MWh el in a more centralized and integrated scenario. Electrical grid interconnections significantly reduce the storage requirement and overall cost of the energy system. Among all RE resources, wind and solar PV are found to be the least-cost options and hence the main contributors to fossil fuel substitution. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option at a modest cost. However, such a tremendous transition will not be possible in a short time if policy-makers, energy investors and other relevant organizations do not support the proposed system.
  • ... Other research aggregates the sub-regions, so that an integrated analysis can be carried out for Europe-Eurasia-MENA [39] and East Asia [40], all in full hourly resolution and interconnected. The nine major world regions are: Europe [41], Eurasia [42], Middle East Northern Africa (MENA) [43], Sub-Saharan Africa [44], India/SAARC [33], Northeast Asia [30], Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim [40,45], North America [46] and South America [47]. Solar PV is represented in the model by groundmounted optimally tilted and single-axis tracking PV power plants and prosumer rooftop systems, enhanced by batteries in the cases of financial attractiveness for the prosumers. ...
    ... Some scenarios give some insights, but detailed information is missing for all scenarios. Nevertheless, the LUT Energy system model delivers detailed cost results, which are presented in summary in Table III and in more detail in the respective publications for the nine major world regions [30,33,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47]. One of the most interesting results of the 100% RE system modelling with 2030 assumptions is the low cost of the energy systems around the world. ...
    ... The key results of the LUT Energy system modelling are a PV capacity demand of 7. Data are based on [30,33,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47] and visualised in more detail in Figures 3-7, with updated results for Northeast Asia based on latest assumptions for all major world regions. Superscripts: * integrated scenario, supply share and ** annualised costs. ...
    Article
    The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub-regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term. The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply.
  • ... The main features of the model are its flexibility and expandability. The model is composed of several power generation and storage technologies, respective installed capacities and different operation modes of these technologies, which are used to supply the electricity demand of power, water desalination and synthetic natural gas (SNG) generation sectors [24], [25]. The energy system model can be separated into market and regulatory models. ...
    ... Regulatory models only take the long-term energy system structure into account and short-term market mechanisms are not considered. This model has already been applied to several regions up to now [24]- [30], and a detailed description can be found in those studies. Further technical and financial assumptions can be found in the Supplementary Material in the appendix of this paper. ...
    ... The feed-in profiles for solar CSP, optimally tilted and single-axis tracking PV, and wind energy were calculated according to Bogdanov and Breyer [24], [25]. The aggregated profiles of solar PV generation (optimally tilted and single-axis tracking), wind energy power generation and CSP solar field, normalized to maximum capacity averaged for North America are presented in Figure 4. ...
    Conference Paper
    Renewable energy (RE) has been already viewed as a minor contributor in the final energy mix of North America due to cost and intermittency constraints. However, recent dramatic cost reductions and new initiatives using RE, particularly solar PV and wind energy, as a main energy source for the future energy mix of the world pave the way for enabling this source of energy to become cost competitive and beneficial in comparison to fossil fuels. Other alternatives such as nuclear energy and coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) cannot play an important role in the future of energy system, mainly due to safety and economic constraints for these technologies. Phasing out nuclear and fossil fuels is still under discussion, however the 'net zero' greenhouse gas emissions agreed at COP21 in Paris clearly guides the pathway towards sustainability. Consequently, RE would be the only trustable energy source towards a clean and sustainable world. In this study, an hourly resolved model has been developed based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constraints with a bright perspective of RE power generation and demand for North America. The geographical, technical and economic potential of different types of RE resources in North America, including wind energy, solar PV, hydro, geothermal and biomass energy sources enable the option to build a Super Grid connection between different North American regions' energy resources to achieve synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. The North American region, including the US, Canada and Mexico in this paper, is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. These sub-regions are interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for North America in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Four scenarios have been evaluated according to different HVDC transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 63 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 53 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 42 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by around 6.6% in the energy system compared to the non-integrated sectors due to higher system efficiency enabled by more flexibility. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
  • ... Other research aggregates the sub-regions, so that the world can be represented by 23 regions [37], or an integrated analysis for Europe-Eurasia-MENA [38] or the East Asian Super Grid [39], all in full hourly resolution and interconnected. The 9 major regions are: Europe [40], Eurasia [41], MENA [42], Sub-Saharan Africa [43], India/ SAARC [32], Northeast Asia [30], Southeast Asia and Pacific [44,45], North America [46] and South America [47,48]. Solar PV is represented in the model by ground-mounted optimally tilted and single-axis tracking PV power plants and prosumer rooftop systems, enhanced by batteries in the cases of financial attractiveness for the prosumers. ...
    ... More detailed results are shown for all 145 sub-regions globally aggregated to the nine major regions for Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and India/SAARC (Fig. 4), Europe and Eurasia (Fig. 5), MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa (Fig. 6) and North America and South America (Fig. 7). Detailed information on all 145 sub-regions can be found in the respective publications [30,32,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48]. ...
    ... Some scenarios give some insights, but detailed information are missing for all scenarios. Nevertheless, the LUT Energy system model delivers detailed cost results, which are presented in much detail in the respective publications [30,32,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48]. One of the most interesting results of the 100% RE system model with 2030 assumptions are the low cost of the energy systems around the world. ...
    Conference Paper
    The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
  • ... Several other recent studies have also assessed the feasibility of 100% RE systems by the 2030 to 2050 time horizon. Interconnected grid studies in the European Union [22,23], Eurasia [24], Denmark [25], the Americas [26], Brazil [27,28], Northeast Asia [29], Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim [30] have found that 100% RE systems are technically feasible if electricity grids are interconnected and if a portfolio of dispatchable RE and storage options are deployed. Most of these studies argue that producing all electricity from RE would be less costly than relying on nuclear energy and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage alternatives. ...
    Article
    Global greenhouse gas emissions from energy production were approximately 40% higher in 2017 than in 2000 (International Energy Agency, 2018), and ambient particulate matter – one of the byproducts from fossil fuel combustion of most concern for public health – is now the fifth largest contributor to global disease (Cohen et al., 2017). Achieving the climate targets of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals requires better accounting for climate and health costs in energy planning. This paper quantifies trade-offs between selected energy infrastructure, climate, and health costs when meeting future electricity demand by increasing the share of renewable energy, with a focus on variable renewable energy (VRE; here: wind and solar photovoltaic power). Using a spatially and temporally resolved approach, we analyzed three scenarios for year 2030 for Northeast Brazil, characterized by 30%, 45%, and 70% of VRE (the latter corresponds to 100% renewable energy). We find that accounting for the health impacts from electricity generation is sufficient to economically justify deep decarbonization of Northeast Brazil's power sector. Full decarbonization is economically justified when the carbon price exceeds $20/tonne CO2, which is less than Brazil's country-level social cost of carbon and only 4.8% of the global social cost of carbon. Our study shows that regional climate and health costs from electricity generation alone can be greater than the additional infrastructure costs of decarbonization. Our results highlight how systematically accounting for health and climate costs in energy planning would economically justify the decarbonization of energy systems.
  • ... Overview of storage capacities, throughput of storages, full cycles and utilization of A-CAES potential for the four scenarios Table 3. For Eurasia [5] For decentralized system • Positive impact of integration of A-CAES is observed on total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE), levelised cost of storages (LCOS), storage losses and distribution of various storage technologies in a decentralized system on system parameters. • In Eurasia (region with high share of wind energy) and Southeast ...
  • ... In [51] the importance of a short-term (6h) high-efficient storage was underlined; the required average wind and solar generation in relation to average load demand was reduced from 1.52 to 1.15, and lossless 6h storage combined with 25 TWh low-efficient long-term storage requires an average generation of solar and wind power of 1.03 times the average load. Eurasia was studied in [52], and as in the case of South America [45], very good hydro resources greatly reduced the need for energy storage in a fully renewable electricity system. In both studies, further flexibility was provided by non-energy industry gas demand and demand for desalination. ...
    Conference Paper
    There are a fast growing number of energy scenarios based on high shares of renewable energy (RE). The types of these scenarios range from bottom-up, cost-optimized simulations with a high level of technological accuracy to top-down, macroeconomic assessments including all sectors contributing to national economies, to descriptive storylines capturing sociological uncertainties and to visions of united global energy systems. However, reviewed global energy scenarios lack comprehensive analyses of energy storage systems. A review of global scenarios reveals that energy storage systems are assessed mainly qualitatively; quantitative assessments of global energy storage demand are scarce. The possible future roles of energy storage systems are plentiful: they can be used in short-term control (e.g. in power grid frequency control), as a medium-term balance mechanism (to shift daily production to meet demand), as long-term storage (seasonal shift), or to substitute grid extensions. Typically, only power storage is considered, if energy storage is assessed at all. Scenario-makers do not always assess the dynamics and synergies of energy storage systems in the power, heat and mobility sectors. To date, publications of the dynamics between continent-wide renewable energy production, transmission grids and energy storage capacities are not numerous. The existing body of research indicates that transmission lines connecting individual countries are regarded as a key component in enabling RE-based, low-cost energy systems. However, various issues could restrain the implementation of proposed grid connections. These barriers could be overcome by partially substituting energy grid reinforcements with energy storage solutions. Furthermore, less storage related curtailment of renewable energy could lead to improved energy system efficiency and cost. Therefore, energy scenarios that capture quantitatively different configurations of international energy exchange and its influence on regional storage systems are needed. High spatial and temporal resolution energy system models are needed to assess scenarios for high share of renewable energy supply and demand for energy storage.
  • ... The findings for Brazil that only 0.05 GW of PtG technology is needed in the power sector for 100% RE represents a singularity among all large regions in the world investigated so far with this methodology. The average ratio of electrolysers to the total installed power generation capacity in a geographical fully integrated region reaches 2.9% for Eurasia (Bogdanov and Breyer, 2015), 3.5% ...
    Conference Paper
    In this study, a 100% renewable energy (RE) system for Brazil in 2030 was simulated using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of RE technologies, mix of capacities, operation modes and least cost energy supply were calculated and the role of storage technologies was analysed. The RE generated was not only able to fulfil the electricity demand of the power sector but also able to cover the 25% increase in total electricity demand due to water desalination and synthesis of natural gas for industrial use. The results for the stand-alone power sector show that the total installed capacity is formed of 165 GW of solar photovoltaics (PV), 85 GW of hydro dams, 12 GW of hydro run-of-river, 8 GW of biogas, 12 GW of biomass and 8 GW of wind power. For solar PV and wind electricity storage, 243 GWhel of battery capacity is needed. According to the simulations the existing hydro dams will function similarly to batteries, being an essential electricity storage. 1 GWh of pumped hydro storage, 23 GWh of adiabatic compressed air storage and 1 GWh of heat storage are used as well. The small storage capacities can be explained by a high availability of RE sources with low seasonal variability and an existing electricity sector mainly based on hydro dams. Therefore, only 0.05 GW of PtG technologies are needed for seasonal storage in the electricity sector. When water desalination and industrial gas sectors' electricity demand are integrated to the power sector, a reduction of 11% in both total cost and electric energy generation was achieved. The levelized cost of gas and the levelized cost of water are 71 €/MWhLHV and 1 €/m 3 , respectively. The total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) decreased from 61 €/MWh to 53 €/MWh when the sector integration was added.
  • ... In addition, it is assumed that there are no thermal power plants using fossil fuels in the future scenario for Iran, in alignment to the COP21 agreement to achieve a net zero greenhouse gas emission system. This is validated by recent literature that discusses the transition to 100% renewable energy power systems of different countries and regions [19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. Thus, the 2030 total water demand of the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors, excluding that of thermal power plants in Iran, is considered. ...
    Conference Paper
    Iran is the 17th most populated country in the world with several regions facing high or extremely high water stress. It is estimated that half the population live in regions with 30% of Iran’s freshwater resources. The combination of climate change, increasing national water demand and mismanagement of water resources is forecasted to worsen the situation in Iran. This has led to an increase in interest in the use of non-traditional water supplies to meet the increasing water demand. In this paper it is shown how the future water demand of Iran can be met through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants powered by 100% renewable energy systems, at a cost level competitive with that of current SWRO plants powered by fossil plants in Iran. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 water demand of Iran is estimated to be about 215 million m3/day compared to the 175,000 m3/day installed SWRO desalination capacity of the total 809,607 m3/day desalination capacity in the year 2015. The optimal hybrid renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a combination of solar photovoltaics (PV) fixed-tilted, PV single-axis tracking, Wind, Battery and Power-to-Gas (PtG) plants. The levelized cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.50 €/m3 – 2 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The total system required to meet the 2030 Iranian water demand is estimated to cost 1177 billion € of initial investments. Thus, our work proves that the water crisis in Iran can be averted in a lucrative and sustainable manner.
  • ... However, due to the lower energy consumption and improvement in technology, reverse osmosis is expected to dominate the Saudi market in the future [18]. [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. ...
    Conference Paper
    Saudi Arabia is in the midst of redefining the vision for the country's future and creating an economy that is not dependent on fossil fuels. This work presents a pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the 2015 power structure to a 100% renewable energy based system by 2050 and analyse the benefits of integrating the power sector with the growing desalination sector. It is found that Saudi Arabia can transition to a 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 whilst meeting the growing water demand through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants. The dominating renewable energy sources are PV single-axis tracking and wind power plants with 210 GW and 133 GW, respectively. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the 2040 system is 48 €/MWh. By 2050, PV single-axis tracking dominates the power sector due to the further reduction in the capital costs alongside cost reductions in supporting battery technology. This results in 80% share of solar PV in the total electricity generation. Battery storage is required to meet the total electricity demand and by 2050, accounts for 48% of the total electricity demand. The LCOE is estimated at 38 €/MWh, required capacity of PV single-axis tracking is 369 GW and wind power plants 75 GW. In the integrated scenario, due to flexibility provided by the SWRO plants, there is a reduced demand for battery storage and power-togas (PtG) plants. In addition, the ratio of the energy curtailed to the total energy generated is lower in all time periods from 2020 to 2050, in the integrated scenario. As a result, the annual levelised costs of the integrated scenario is found to be 2%-4% less than the non-integrated scenario.
  • ... This trend indicated that Europe can reach a 100% renewable, carbon emission neutral (net zero) energy system in next decades. RE generation is not that developed in Eurasia and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) yet, though these regions also have great potentials due to excellent RE resources and a much lower population density [2,3]. ...
    Conference Paper
    The existing fossil fuel based power sector has to be transformed towards carbon neutrality in close future to limit global warming to 2ºC. The 100% renewable energy (RE) based system will be discussed in the paper. Such a system can be built using already existing energy generation, storage and transmission technologies. A regional integration of Europe, Eurasia and MENA energy systems will facilitate access to lower cost energy sources in neighboring regions, provide additional flexibility in the system and decrease the need in energy storage and increase the system stability because of more distributed generation. Additional demand from synthetic gas generation will additionally decrease the energy storage demand, additional flexibility enables the system to use lower cost energy sources and the primary energy generation cost decreases. Finally, such an integration can provide a sustainable and economically feasible energy system with total LCOE of about 50 €/MWh for the year 2030 cost assumptions. Even for a much higher energy demand in the system the total LCOE will be around 42 €/MWh – lower than coal-CCS or new nuclear options.
  • ... Results for LCOE calculations for Ukraine in 2050 are similar to other studies using the LUT model which show a global range of about 50-70 €/MWh for 100% power systems in 2030 [13], [16], [23]- [29] These studies suggest that further integration of desalination and non-energy gas demands into the energy system model could result in further LCOE savings, suggesting an interesting area of further research for Ukraine. The findings of the current study are similar to those found in another comprehensive analysis of the Ukrainian energy system [30]. ...
    Presentation
    Full-text available
    Presentation on the occasion of the Sustainable Energy Forum and Exhibition (SEF-2016), Kiev, October 11, 2016.
  • ... A similar finding had been observed for the integration of the regions of Europe, Eurasia and MENA, for which the integration benefit was 1.3% [48]. East Asia and EuropeEurasiaMENA show the same characteristic, that a deep integration from a region-wide to an area-wide integration within a region is highly beneficial in the range of 5%-16%, since this had been found for all five major regions involved: Northeast Asia (11%) [23], Southeast Asia (5%) [22], Europe (11%) [49], Eurasia (16%) [50], and MENA (10%) [51]), but not for an integration of two neighboring major regions. Very long power lines between 1500 and 2000 km or more do not generate financial benefits, as found so far for Northeast Asia [47]. ...
    Conference Paper
    Energy is a key driver for social and economic change. Many countries trying to develop economically and socially and many developed countries trying to maintain their economic growth will create a huge demand for energy in the future. The growth in energy production will put our climate at risk, without change in the existing fossil fuel based energy system. In this paper, 100% renewable energy based system is discussed for East Asia, integrating the two large regions of Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. Regional integration of the two regions does not provide significant benefit to the energy system in terms of cost reduction. However, reduction of 0.4-0.7% in terms of total annual cost of the system can be achieved for East Asia, mainly realised in optimising the bordering regions of South China and Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. The idea of Australia being an electricity source for Asia, does not pay off due to the long distances and local storage of the generated electricity in the regions is more cost competitive. However, such an integration provides a sustainable and economically feasible energy system with the cost of electricity between 53-66 €/MWh for the year 2030 with the assumptions used in this study. The described energy system will be very cost competitive to the widely discussed nuclear and fossil carbon-capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
  • ... During our work we simulate optimal RE-based energy systems globally. The world is divided into 9 geographiceconomic major regions: Europe [1], Eurasia [2], Northwest Asia [3], Southwest Asia [4], Indian subcontinent [5], Middle East North Africa (MENA) [6], Sub-Saharan Africa, [7], North America [8] and South America [9], and for every region PV generation takes an important role in energy supply [10]. For each major region an optimal structure of a REbased energy system was defined using the LUT energy system model, an hourly dispatched linear optimization model for minimizing total energy system costs, which uses real weather data and a synthetized load, while taking specific aspects and given constraints into account. ...
    Conference Paper
    Need to transform the energy system towards 100% renewable generation is well understood and such a transformation has already started. However, this transformation will be full of challenges and there will be no standard solution for energy supply, every regional energy system will be specific, because of local specific climatic and geographical conditions and consumption patterns. Based on the two major energy sources all regions can be divided into two categories: PV and Wind energy based regions. Moreover, local conditions will not only influence the optimal generation mix, but also optimal storage capacities choice. In this work we observe a strong coupling between PV and short-term storage utilisation in all major regions in the world: in the PV generation based energy systems short-term storage utilisation is much higher than in wind-based systems. Finally, PV-based energy systems demand a significant capacity for short-term storage, the more the more PV generation takes place locally.
  • ... The findings for Brazil that only 0.05 GW of PtG technology is needed in the power sector for 100% RE represents a singularity among all large regions in the world investigated so far with this methodology. The average ratio of electrolysers to the total installed power generation capacity in a geographical fully integrated region reaches 2.9% for Eurasia [6], 3.5% for Northeast Asia [7], 0.6% for Southeast Asia [18], 1.7% for India/SAARC [17], 1.3% for Sub-Saharan Africa [3] and 0.02% for Brazil. The ratio of hydro dams to the total installed power generation capacity reaches 16.9% for Eurasia, 3.1% for Northeast Asia, 5.6% for Southeast Asia, 3.0% for India/SAARC and 5.3% for Sub-Saharan Africa, but 29.4% for Brazil. ...
    Article
    In this study, a 100% renewable energy (RE) system for Brazil in 2030 was simulated using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of RE technologies, mix of capacities, operation modes and least cost energy supply were calculated and the role of storage technologies was analysed. The RE generated was not only able to fulfil the electricity demand of the power sector but also able to cover the 25% increase in total electricity demand due to water desalination and synthesis of natural gas for industrial use. The results for the power sector show that the total installed capacity is formed of 165 GW of solar photovoltaics (PV), 85 GW of hydro dams, 12 GW of hydro run-of-river, 8 GW of biogas, 12 GW of biomass and 8 GW of wind power. For solar PV and wind electricity storage, 243 GWhel of battery capacity is needed. According to the simulations the existing hydro dams will function similarly to batteries, being an essential electricity storage. 1 GWh of pumped hydro storage, 23 GWh of adiabatic compressed air storage and 1 GWh of heat storage are used as well. The small storage capacities can be explained by a high availability of RE sources with low seasonal variability and an existing electricity sector mainly based on hydro dams. Therefore, only 0.05 GW of PtG technologies are needed for seasonal storage in the electricity sector. When water desalination and industrial gas sectors’ electricity demand are integrated to the power sector, a reduction of 11% in both total cost and electric energy generation was achieved. The total system levelized cost of electricity decreased from 61 €/MWh to 53 €/MWh for the sector integration.
  • ... In [51] the importance of a short-term (6h) high-efficient storage was underlined; the required average wind and solar generation in relation to average load demand was reduced from 1.52 to 1.15, and lossless 6h storage combined with 25 TWh low-efficient long-term storage requires an average generation of solar and wind power of 1.03 times the average load. Eurasia was studied in [52], and as in the case of South America [45], very good hydro resources greatly reduced the need for energy storage in a fully renewable electricity system. In both studies, further flexibility was provided by non-energy industry gas demand and demand for desalination. ...
    Article
    There are a fast growing number of global energy scenarios based on high shares of renewable energy (RE). However, many of them lack comprehensive analyses of energy storage systems. A review of global scenarios reveals that energy storage systems are assessed mainly qualitatively; quantitative assessments of global energy storage demand are scarce. The possible future roles of energy storage systems are plentiful: they can be used in short-term control (e.g. in power grid frequency control), as a medium-term balance mechanism (to shift daily production to meet demand), as long-term storage (seasonal shift), or to substitute grid extensions. Typically, only power storage is considered, if energy storage is assessed at all. Scenario-makers do not always assess the dynamics and synergies of energy storage systems in the power, heat and mobility sectors. To date, publications of the dynamics between continent-wide renewable energy production, transmission grids and energy storage capacities are not numerous. The existing body of research indicates that transmission lines connecting individual countries are regarded as a key component in enabling RE-based, low-cost energy systems. However, various issues could restrain the implementation of proposed grid connections. These barriers could be overcome by partially substituting energy grid reinforcements with energy storage solutions. Furthermore, less storage related curtailment of renewable energy could lead to improved energy system efficiency and cost. Therefore, energy scenarios that capture quantitatively different configurations of international energy exchange and its influence on regional storage systems are needed. High spatial and temporal resolution energy system models are needed to assess scenarios for high share of renewable energy supply and demand for energy storage.
  • ... A similar finding had been observed for the integration of the regions of Europe, Eurasia and MENA, for which the integration benefit was 1.3% [48]. East Asia and EuropeEurasiaMENA show the same characteristic, that a deep integration from a region-wide to an area-wide integration within a region is highly beneficial in the range of 5%-16%, since this had been found for all five major regions involved: Northeast Asia (11%) [23], Southeast Asia (5%) [22], Europe (11%) [49], Eurasia (16%) [50], and MENA (10%) [51]), but not for an integration of two neighboring major regions. Very long power lines between 1500 and 2000 km or more do not generate financial benefits, as found so far for Northeast Asia [47]. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    The Paris Agreement points out that countries need to shift away from the existing fossil-fuel-based energy system to limit the average temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 °C. A cost-optimal 100% renewable energy based system is simulated for East Asia for the year 2030, covering demand by power, desalination, and industrial gas sectors on an hourly basis for an entire year. East Asia was divided into 20 sub-regions and four different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage grid connection, and additional demand sectors: power, desalination, industrial gas, and a renewable-energy-based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) trading between regions. The integrated RE-SNG scenario gives the lowest cost of electricity (€52/MWh) and the lowest total annual cost of the system. Results contradict the notion that long-distance power lines could be beneficial to utilize the abundant solar and wind resources in Australia for East Asia. However, Australia could become a liquefaction hub for exporting RE-SNG to Asia and a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in East Asia with the cost assumptions used. This may also be more cost-competitive than nuclear and fossil fuel carbon capture and storage alternatives.
  • ... Если же развитие пойдет не в сторону автономных источников, a сетей, что сейчас, например, наблюдается в Германии[41], то тогда развитие и роль систем энергонакопления окажется заметно слабее. Существуют весьма интересны с методологической точки зрения расчеты[34], оптимизирующие эффективность всей системы, с учетом различных источников генерации, сетей, систем накопления, и пр. Однако в нынешней малопредсказуемой ситуации с выбором параметров расчета, они нам представляются все же преждевременными.Поэтому следует использовать некие упрощенные критерии. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    A renormalized model, providing equivalent cash flows for solar power station and fixed income portfolio is proposed. The model can be applied in two setups: initial evaluation of the project (direct problem) and the estimate of the required tariff subsidy (inverse problem), applicable for example to Power Purchase Agreements (PPA), RF government resolution 449. Risks of primary and secondary markets of solar power stations, additional utility and perspectives of solar power in Russia are discussed. The application of the model is illustrated on two examples: experimental Ioffe Institute solar station and autonomous solar-diesel power plant in the village Yailyu, Altai. (Для оценки экономической эффективности солнечной энергоустановки исследуются потоки денег, связанные с ее запуском и эксплуатацией. Предложена перенормируемая модель, в которой эти потоки эквивалентны потоку денег портфеля облигаций. Модель может быть использована как для оценки исходной эффективности при ее запуске (прямая задача), так и для определения величины текущих дотаций тарифа на электроэнергию при ее эксплуатации (обратная задача). Эта модель необходима также для анализа эфективности реализации Договоров Предоставления Мощности (ДПМ), заключаемых согласно постановлению правительства РФ 449. Обсуждаются эффекты дополнительной полезности солнечной энергетики, риски на первичном и вторичном рынках солнечной энергетики, возможные сценарии развития солнечной энергетики в России. Применение модели иллюстрируется на примерах солнечных электростанций: экспериментальной в ФТИ им. А.Ф. Иоффе и эксплуатируемой в п. Яйлю, Республики Алтай.)
  • ... For the first time, it is possible to see the transition towards a 100% renewable Ukrainian power system. [13], [16], [23]- [29] These studies suggest that further integration of desalination and non-energy gas demands into the energy system model could result in further LCOE savings, suggesting an interesting area of further research for Ukraine. The findings of the current study are similar to those found in another comprehensive analysis of the Ukrainian energy system [30]. ...
    Conference Paper
    A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Ukraine. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Modelling of the power system proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities as well as their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand in order to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity will fall from a current level of 94 €/MWhe to 54 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation and improvements in efficiency. In addition, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-139 GWhe of batteries, 9 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-18,840 GWhgas of gas storage for the time period. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2035 when renewable energy production reaches a share of 86% in the power system, increasing to a total of 13 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Ukraine, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Achieving a sustainable energy system can aid in achieving other political, economic and social goals for Ukraine, but this will require overcoming several barriers through proper planning and supportive policies. Several solutions are identified which can enable the transition towards the long-term sustainability of the Ukraine energy system.
  • ... A straightforward extension of this work would be to include storage options in the calculations. (Bogdanov et al., 2015) have found for a similar Eurasian grid that HVDC transmission leads to a cut-off of storage utilization and decrease the need for primary generation capacities. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    Renewable power systems have to cope with highly variable generation. Increasing the spatial extent of an interconnected power transmission grid smooths the feed-in by exchange of excess energy over long distances and therefore supports renewable power integration. In this work, we investigate and quantify the balancing potential of a supergrid covering Europe, Africa and Asia. We use ten years of historical weather data to model the interplay of renewable generation and consumption and show that a pan-continental Afro-Eurasian supergrid can smooth renewable generation to a large extent and reduce the need for backup energy by around 50 %. In addition, we show that results for different weather years vary by up to approximately 50 %.
  • ... Results for LCOE calculations for Ukraine in 2050 are similar to other studies using the LUT model which show a global range of about 50-70 €/MWh for 100% power systems in 2030 [13], [16], [23]- [29] These studies suggest that further integration of desalination and non-energy gas demands into the energy system model could result in further LCOE savings, suggesting an interesting area of further research for Ukraine. The findings of the current study are similar to those found in another comprehensive analysis of the Ukrainian energy system [30]. ...
    Article
    A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Ukraine. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity will fall from a current level of 82 €/MWhe to 60 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation and improvements in efficiency. If the capacity in 2050 would have been invested for the cost assumptions of 2050, the cost would be 54 €/MWhe, which can be expected for the time beyond 2050. In addition, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-139 GWhe of batteries, 9 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-18,840 GWhgas of gas storage for the time period. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2035 when renewable energy production reaches a share of 86% in the power system, increasing to a total of 13 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Ukraine, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Achieving a sustainable energy system can aid in achieving other political, economic and social goals for Ukraine, but this will require overcoming several barriers through proper planning and supportive policies.
  • ... This system eliminates the reliance of SWRO desalination plants on non-renewable fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, reflecting the Saudi government's vision of high renewable energy capacities, there is recent literature that discusses the 100% renewable energy transition of different countries and regions [25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32], as well as detailed visualization of respective electricity systems [33]. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    This work presents a pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the 2015 power structure to a 100% renewable energy-based system by 2050 and investigates the benefits of integrating the power sector with the growing desalination sector. Saudi Arabia can achieve 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 while meeting increasing water demand through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) and multiple effect distillation (MED) desalination plants. The dominating renewable energy sources are PV single-axis tracking and wind power plants with 243 GW and 83 GW, respectively. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the 2040 system is 49 €/MWh and decreases to 41 €/MWh by 2050. Corresponding levelised cost of water (LCOW) is found to be 0.8 €/m3 and 0.6 €/m3. PV single-axis tracking dominates the power sector. By 2050 solar PV accounts for 79% of total electricity generation. Battery storage accounts for 41% of total electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, due to flexibility provided by SWRO plants, there is a reduced demand for battery storage and power-to-gas (PtG) plants as well as a reduction in curtailment. Thus, the annual levelised costs of the integrated scenario is found to be 1–3% less than the non-integrated scenario.
  • ... For both cost years storage technologies are the most important sources of flexibility in the system, and the total share of flexibility stays roughly the same, around 30% of total energy demand. The structure of storage generation for years 2020 and 2030 and the area-wide scenario is presented in Figure 5. for the Eurasia region in Bogdanov and Breyer [28]. ...
    Conference Paper
    Grid integration for renewable energy (RE) is in many studies observed as the major option to increase energy system reliability and decrease costs: overflows in the grid can support the system in case of component failure and decrease the need for balancing capacities. Energy transmission grids additionally increase capacity utilisation and efficiency by smoothing of total demand, especially for geographically wide expanded grids. Wherefore it had been often assumed that a development of close to 100% RE systems may be only possible with the installation of extended power grids as was discussed in the Desertec or Gobitec vision and other comparable centralised RE approaches. In this work impacts of the different levels of high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid integration on cost optimized 100% RE system were researched for the example of Northeast Asia. Three grid scenarios were applied for the area: region-wide open trade, where the energy system integration happens only inside one region; country-wide open trade, where a HVDC transmission grid connects regions inside one country; and area-wide open trade scenario, where all the countries are interconnected. These scenarios were simulated using the LUT energy system model for the two cost years 2020 and 2030. The optimized energy system included solar photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar thermal power, wind onshore, hydropower, geothermal energy and biomass as energy sources. The storage options are batteries, thermal energy storage, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES) and gas storage including power-togas. It was found, that grid integration leads to a significant decrease of total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for the years 2020 and 2030: LCOE for the area-wide scenario was 8% lower than the region-wide scenario for the year 2020 and 5% lower for year 2030. However, the cost spread for 2030 is 50% lower (3 €/MWh vs 6 €/MWh) because of expected storage cost development and consequently different storage and grid utilisation. The optimal storage structure for both years is 20% of long-term storage and 80% of short to mid-term storage. Short-term storage technologies, Li-ion batteries and PHS are insignificant for the Northeast Asian case. The cost development of storage technologies results in increased storage and reduced grid supply share of 16% to 22% and 14% to 9% for the year 2020 and 2030, respectively, i.e. reduced storage costs lead to a reduced relevance of long distance grid integration. The total share of the flexible power sources stays stable for both cost years at around 30%. Finally, the lower cost spread for the year 2030 makes it possible in some cases to take a transformation towards 100% RE into account without massive grid installations.
  • Conference Paper
    This paper determines a least cost electricity solution for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The power system discussed in this study is hourly resolved and based on 100% Renewable Energy (RE) technologies. Sub-Saharan Africa was subdivided into 16 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered according to the setup in high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid. One integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas production were also analysed. This study uncovers that RE is sufficient to cover 866.4 TWh estimated electricity demand for 2030 and additional electricity needed to fulfil 319 million m 3 of water desalination and 268 TWhLHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar PV and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) decreases from 57.8 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 54.7 €/MWh for a more centralized grid scenario. For the integrated scenario, including water desalination and synthetic natural gas demand, the levelised cost of gas and the levelised cost of water are 113.7 €/MWhLHV and 1.39 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 6% in total cost and 19% in electricity generation was realized as a result of integrating desalination and power-togas sectors into the system.
  • Article
    The power sector is faced with strict requirements in reducing harmful emissions and substantially increasing the level of sustainability. Renewable energy (RE) in general and solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular can offer societally beneficial solutions. The LUT energy system transition model is used to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% RE in the power sector by 2050. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year, the world structured in 145 regions, high spatial resolution of the input RE resource data, and transition steps of 5-year periods. The global average solar PV electricity generation contribution is found to be about 69% in 2050, the highest ever reported. Detailed energy transition results are presented for representative countries in the world, namely, Poland, Britain and Ireland, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The global average energy system levelised cost of electricity gradually declines from 70 €/MWh in 2015 to 52 €/MWh in 2050 throughout the transition period, while deep decarbonisation of more than 95% around 2040, referenced to 2015, would be possible. The targets of the Paris Agreement can be well achieved in the power sector, while increasing societal welfare, given strong policy leadership.
  • Chapter
    Long-term scenarios of the low-carbon energy transformation in Europe are quite diverse. In this chapter, we provide a detailed discussion of scenarios leading to a far-reaching decarbonization of the European energy system to 2050. We use an updated version of the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD), developed by our group to study various low-carbon transformation processes at global, continental, or national level. The modeling results suggest that a largely renewables-based energy mix is the lowest cost solution to the decarbonization challenge, and that the distribution of the carbon budget has a strong impact on the results. Our model calculations thus confirm bottom-up results obtained for the electricity sector, in Chap. 10, suggesting that the solution to the carbon challenge is the increased use of renewable energy sources, mainly solar and wind. Section 13.2 provides a non-technical description of the model, the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD); it is an energy system model developed recently for scenario analysis, providing a high level of technical detail, and the integrated coverage of all sectors and fuels. Section 13.3 presents different GHG emissions pathways, related to a 1.5° increase of the global mean temperature, a 2° increase, and a business-as-usual (BAU) case with a much larger emission budget. For each scenario, we distributed the emission budget to countries according to different criteria, i.e. free distribution, share of European GDP, share of current emissions, or share of population. Section 13.4 presents model results, suggesting that renewable technologies gradually replace fossil-fuel generation, starting in the power sector: By 2040, almost all electricity generation is provided by a combination of PV, wind, and hydropower, using significant amounts of storage. The pathways for transportation and heat are more diverse, but they follow a similar general trend. The commitment for a 2 °C target only comes with a cost increase of about 1–2% (dependent on the emission share) compared to a business-as-usual-pathway, while yielding reduced emissions of about 25%. The different regions and demand sectors each experience different decarbonization pathways, depending on their potentials, political settings, and technology options. Section 13.5 concludes that with already known technologies, even ambitions climate targets can be met in Europe, at moderate costs, as long as strict carbon constraints are applied.
  • Article
    This study applies a scenario-based analysis to assess the sustainability of energy transitions of the North African economies under the Paris Agreement, by evaluating the specific pace of the transition grounded in the reality of the actual regional constraints. The ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ modelling platform is used to simulate the impact of energy and climate policies set in the context of the global low-carbon transition on North Africa’s current energy system and economies. Two scenarios are developed: the reference and the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution scenarios. A cost–benefit analysis is performed to ensure this transition can be cost-effective and to suggest recommendations for an efficient and effective transition to a low carbon economy. Results show that decarbonization in North Africa can be achieved at the regional scale, at negative costs, but significant upfront capital investments and intensive energy policy reforms are needed. Key policy insights • In order for North African countries to meet their Paris Agreement commitments, further steps need to be taken by the international community to accelerate low-carbon technology transfer and the provision of financial resources to them. • Policies for energy efficiency and renewable energy development should include the establishment of a regional market to develop and harmonize policies and legal frameworks in North Africa. • Regional energy market integration and network interconnections would allow economies of scale, cost savings and the development of regional expertise. • Policies for energy efficiency should also include reforms to phase out or reduce fossil fuel subsidies, mandatory energy audits for the buildings sector, and minimum energy performance standards for appliances, such as air conditioners and refrigerators.
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  • Surface meteorology and solar energy (SSE) release 6.0 Methodology, NASA SSE 6.0. Earth Science Enterprise Program
    • P W Stackhouse
    • C H Whitlock
    Stackhouse P.W., Whitlock C.H., (eds.), 2009. Surface meteorology and solar energy (SSE) release 6.0 Methodology, NASA SSE 6.0. Earth Science Enterprise Program, National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA), Langley. Available at: http://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/sse/documents/SSE6Methodology.pdf [accessed: 28.05.2015]
  • Abschlussbericht für das BMBF-Verbundprojekt Biogaseinspeisung. Fraunhofer UMSICHT
    • W Urban
    • H Lohmann
    • K Girod
    Urban W., Lohmann H., Girod K., 2009. Abschlussbericht für das BMBF-Verbundprojekt Biogaseinspeisung. Fraunhofer UMSICHT. [in German].
  • Medium-term gas market report
    IEA, 2013. Medium-term gas market report 2013. IEA Publishing, Paris.
  • Power database, GlobalData, London
    • Globaldata
    GlobalData, 2015. Power database, GlobalData, London, [online] http://power.globaldata.com/default.aspx
  • Desert power -perspectives on a sustainable power system for EUMENA
    • Dii
    Dii, 2012. 2050 Desert power -perspectives on a sustainable power system for EUMENA. Dii, Munich.
  • Integration of renewable energy in Europe. study prepared by KEMA preprint to be published in the proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress
    European Commission, 2014a. ETRI 2014-Energy technology reference indicator projections for 20102050. EC Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy and Transport, Petten, Netherlands European Commission, 2014b. Integration of renewable energy in Europe. study prepared by KEMA preprint to be published in the proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress, November 8-12, 2015, Daegu, Korea
  • Imperial College and NERA Economic Consulting on behalf of DG Energy
    • Dnv Consulting
    • Gl -Energy
    Consulting, DNV GL -Energy, Imperial College and NERA Economic Consulting on behalf of DG Energy, Brussels, p. 7-8 and 54.
  • Impact of Financing Cost on Global Grid-Parity Dynamics till 2030, 29th EU PVSEC
    • A Gerlach
    • Werner Ch
    • Ch Breyer
    Gerlach A., Werner Ch., Breyer Ch., 2014. Impact of Financing Cost on Global Grid-Parity Dynamics till 2030, 29th EU PVSEC, Amsterdam, September 22-26, DOI: 10.4229/29thEUPVSEC2014-7DO.15.4, [available online at: www.researchgate.net/publication/266558306_Impact_of_Financing_Cost_on_Global_GridParity_Dynamics_till_2030]
  • International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior, The International Heat Flow Commission
    IASPEI, 2015. International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior, The International Heat Flow Commission, Colorado, USA. IHFC database Available at: [http://www.heatflow.und.edu/index2.html].
  • Thesis
    As electricity generation based on volatile renewable resources is subject to fluctuations, data with high temporal and spatial resolution on their availability is indispensable for integrating large shares of renewable capacities into energy infrastructures. The scope of the present doctoral thesis is to enhance the existing energy modelling environment REMix in terms of (i.) extending the geographic coverage of the potential assessment tool REMix-EnDaT from a European to a global scale, (ii.) adding a new plant siting optimization module REMix-PlaSMo, capable of assessing siting effects of renewable power plants on the portfolio output and (iii.) adding a new alternating current power transmission model between 30 European countries and CSP electricity imports from power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East via high voltage direct current links into the module REMix-OptiMo. With respect to the global potential assessment tool, a thorough investigation is carried out creating an hourly global inventory of the theoretical potentials of the major renewable resources solar irradiance, wind speed and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.45°x0.45°. A detailed global land use analysis determines eligible sites for the installation of renewable power plants. Detailed power plant models for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power allow for the assessment of power output, cost per kWh and respective full load hours taking into account the theoretical potentials, technological as well as economic data. The so-obtined tool REMix-EnDaT can be used as follows: First, as an assessment tool for arbitrary geographic locations, countries or world regions, deriving either site-specific or aggregated installable capacities, cost as well as full load hour potentials. Second, as a tool providing input data such as installable capacities and hourly renewable electricity generation for further assessments using the modules REMix-PlasMo and OptiMo. The plant siting tool REMix-PlaSMo yields results as to where the volatile power technologies photovoltaics and wind are to be located within a country in order to gain distinct effects on their aggregated power output. Three different modes are implemented: (a.) Optimized plant siting in order to obtain the cheapest generation cost, (b.) a minimization of the photovoltaic and wind portfolio output variance and (c.) a minimization of the residual load variance. The third fundamental addition to the REMix model is the amendment of the module REMix-OptiMo with a new power transmission model based on the DC load flow approximation. Moreover, electricity imports originating from concentrating solar power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East are now feasible. All of the new capabilities and extensions of REMix are employed in three case studies: In case study 1, using the module REMix-EnDaT, a global potential assessment is carried out for 10 OECD world regions, deriving installable capacities, cost and full load hours for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power. According to the latter, photovoltaics will represent the cheapest technology in 2050, an average of 1634 full load hours could lead to an electricity generation potential of some 5500 PWh. Although CSP also taps solar irradiance, restrictions in terms of suitable sites for erecting power plants are more severe. For that reason, the maximum potential amounts to some 1500 PWh. However, thermal energy storage can be used, which, according to this assessment, could lead to 5400 hours of full load operation. Onshore wind power could tap a potential of 717 PWh by 2050 with an average of 2200 full load hours while offshore, wind power plants could achieve a total power generation of 224 PWh with an average of 3000 full load hours. The electricity generation potential of hydro power exceeds 3 PWh, 4600 full load hours of operation are reached on average. In case study 2, using the module REMix-PlaSMo, an assessment for Morocco is carried out as to determine limits of volatile power generation in portfolios approaching full supply based on renewable power. The volatile generation technologies are strategically sited at specific locations to take advantage of available resources conditions. It could be shown that the cost optimal share of volatile power generation without considering storage or transmission grid extensions is one third. Moreover, the average power generation cost using a portfolio consisting of PV, CSP, wind and hydro power can be stabilized at about 10 €ct/kWh by the year 2050. In case study 3, using the module REMix-OptiMo, a validation of a TRANS-CSP scenario based upon high shares of renewable power generation is carried out. The optimization is conducted on an hourly basis using a least cost approach, thereby investigating if and how demand is met during each hour of the investigated year. It could be shown, that the assumed load can safely be met in all countries for each hour using the scenario's power plant portfolio. Furthermore, it was proven that dispatchable renewable power generation, in particular CSP imports to Europe, have a system stabilizing effect. Using the suggested concept, the utilization of the transfer capacities between countries would decrease until 2050.
  • Book
    Presenting boundary conditions for the economic and environmental utilization of geothermal technology, this is the first book to provide basic knowledge on the topic in such detail. The editor is the coordinator of the European Geothermic Research Initiative, while the authors are experts for the various geological situations in Europe with high temperature reservoirs in shallow and deep horizons. With its perspectives for R&D in geothermic technology concluding each chapter, this ready reference will be of great value to scientists and decision-makers in research and politics, as well as those giving courses in petroleum engineering, for example.
  • Conference Paper
    Global water demand is increasing whilst the renewable water resource is diminishing. This has resulted in an increase in demand for seawater desalination, with reverse osmosis (RO) accounting for 65% of the 80.9 million m3/day of desalted water produced globally in 2013. A prevailing concern is high energy demand and availability of fossil fuel resources, resulting in the drive for renewable energy powered desalination systems. In the near future, the increasing desalination demand can be met through SWRO plants powered by hybrid PV-Wind-Battery and Power-to-Gas (PtG) power plants at a cost level competitive with current fossil fuel powered SWRO plants.Hybrid systems allow for higher full load hours and optimal utilization of the installed desalination capacity. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030. The levelized cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, ranges from 0.59 €/m3 – 2.81 €/m3 for the 2030 desalination demand. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is found to cost about 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way.
  • Article
    Full-text available
    This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report (IPCC-SRREN) assesses the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change. It covers the six most important renewable energy sources - bioenergy, solar, geothermal, hydropower, ocean and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. SRREN brings a broad spectrum of technology-specific experts together with scientists studying energy systems as a whole. Prepared following strict IPCC procedures, it presents an impartial assessment of the current state of knowledge: it is policy relevant but not policy prescriptive. SRREN is an invaluable assessment of the potential role of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, and academic researchers.
  • Article
    Further development of the North-East Asian energy system is at a crossroads due to severe limitations of the current conventional energy based system. For North-East Asia it is proposed that the excellent solar and wind resources of the Gobi desert could enable the transformation towards a 100% renewable energy system. An hourly resolved model describes an energy system for North-East Asia, subdivided into 14 regions interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grids. Simulations are made for highly centralized, decentralized and countrywide grids scenarios. The results for total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are 0.065 and 0.081 €/(kW&h) for the centralized and decentralized approaches for 2030 assumptions. The presented results for 100% renewable resources-based energy systems are lower in LCOE by about 30–40% than recent findings in Europe for conventional alternatives. This research clearly indicates that a 100% renewable resources based energy system is THE real policy option.
  • Conference Paper
    Case studies for very large scale PV (VLS-PV) in desert areas, by the IEA PVPS Task8 study, showed that the Gobi desert area of Mongolia is one of the most promising candidate sites for VLS-PV. It is expected that the demonstration phase will be started in the near-term, and it is intended that a concrete sustainable development scheme would be designed and that the capacity of the total PV system, VLS-PV, will reach GW-scale. Further, thinking about a concept of 'Renewable Energy Super Grid' in North-East Asia, the VLS-PV systems should play important roles.
  • Article
    Full-text available
    A primary endeavor of NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to synthesize and analyze data that is useful to the renewable energy industry on a global scale [1]. One goal of POWER is to provide data to the renewable energy industry in quantities and terms compatible with this industries design and engineering tools and for locations where ground site data is not readily available. The Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set and web site have been a valuable resource for a growing user community involved in renewable energy. The POWER project continues to improve upon information available via the SSE web site. This paper describes the availability of higher spatial resolution assimilated data in a new release of SSE (i.e. SSE 6.0) that extends the period of coverage to 22 years.
  • Conference Paper
    Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
  • Conference Paper
    PV and wind power are the major renewable power technologies in most regions on earth. Depending on the interaction of solar and wind resources, PV and wind power industry will become competitors or allies. Time resolved geospatial data of global horizontal irradiation and wind speeds are used to simulate the power feed-in of PV and wind power plants assumed to be installed on an equally rated power basis in every region of a 1°x1° mesh of latitude and longitude between 65°N and 65°S. An overlap of PV and wind power full load hours is defined as measure for the complementarity of both technologies and identified as ranging between 5% and 25% of total PV and wind power feed-in. Critical overlap full load hours are introduced as a measure for energy losses that would appear if the grid was dimensioned only for one power plant of PV or wind. In result, they do not exceed 9% of total feed-in but are mainly around 3% - 4%. Thus the two major renewable power technologies must be characterized by complementing each other.
  • Article
    Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given, and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries and a total of 305 market segments all over the world, representing 98.0% of world population and 99.7% of global gross domestic product. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events occur right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75–90% of total global electricity market. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
  • Article
    This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
  • Article
    Full-text available
    The increasing amount of power generation from weather-dependent renewable sources in Germany is projected to lead to a considerable number of hours in which power generation exceeds power demand. One possibility to take advantage of this power surplus is through the Power-to-Heat technology. As combined heat and power (CHP)-plants can be upgraded relatively easily with a Power-to-Heat facility, a huge potential can be developed in German district heating grids which are mainly served by CHP-plants. In this paper the potential of the Power-to-Heat technology in district heating grids in Germany is evaluated for the years 2015 to 2030 under different assumptions.
  • Article
    An estimation of the Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential for the Iberian Peninsula is presented in this work. As a first step, the temperature at different depths (from 3500 m to 9500 m, in 1000 m steps) has been estimated from existing heat flow, temperature at 1000 m and temperature at 2000 m depth data. From the obtained temperature-at-depth data, an evaluation of the available heat stored for each 1 km thick layer between 3 and 10 km depth, under some limiting hypotheses, has been made. Results are presented as the net electrical power that could be installed, considering that the available thermal energy stored is extracted during a 30 year project life. The results are presented globally for the Iberian Peninsula and separately for Portugal (continental Portugal), Spain (continental Spain plus the Balearic Islands) and for each one of the administrative regions included in the study. Nearly 6% of the surface of the Iberian Peninsula, at a depth of 3500 m has a temperature higher than 150 °C. This surface increases to more than 50% at 5500 m depth, and more than 90% at 7500 m depth. The Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential in the Iberian Peninsula, up to a 10 km depth (3 km–10 km) and for temperatures above 150 °C, expressed as potential installed electrical power, is as high as 700 GWe, which is more than 5 times today's total electricity capacity installed in the Iberian Peninsula (renewable, conventional thermal and nuclear).
  • Article
    In this work an estimation and comparison of the technical and sustainable potentials of EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) in Europe is presented. The temperatures at depths of (3500–9500) m were firstly calculated from the available data of temperatures at surface, 1000 m and 2000 m depth, and heat flow. Next the available thermal energy stored in each 1000 m thick layer along the considered depths was evaluated. At this point, the EGS technical potential was estimated and results are presented as installable net electrical power by considering a 30 year time project. A method to estimate the EGS sustainable potential is proposed and the results are compared with the technical potential. Results are presented for the European territory as a whole and individually for each one of the European countries. Estimations for Turkey and the Caucasus region are also presented. Under the hypotheses considered in our study, the technical potential of EGS in Europe for temperatures above 150 °C and depths of between 3 km and 10 km was estimated to be more than 6500 GWe. The part of this technical potential that can be considered as ‘sustainable’ or ‘renewable’ potential was estimated to be 35 GWe.
  • Article
    We present a geographical assessment of the performance of crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) modules over Europe. We have developed a method that is based on a material specific analytical expression of the PV conversion efficiency, relative to nominal efficiency, as a function of module temperature and irradiance. This method is combined with a climate database that includes average daytime temperature and irradiance profiles. It is found that the geographical variation in ambient temperature and yearly irradiation causes a decrease in overall yearly PV performance from 3 to 13% relative to the performance under Standard Test Conditions, with the highest decrease found in the Mediterranean region. Based on the above results we developed a simplified linear expression of the relative PV module efficiency that is a simple function of yearly total irradiation and yearly average daytime temperature. The coefficients to the linear expression are found by fitting to the map resulting from the above-mentioned analytical approach. The prediction of total yearly PV output from this linear fit deviates less than 0·5% from the more detailed calculation, thus providing a faster and more simplified alternative to the yield estimate, in the case when only limited climate data are available. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
  • Article
    Discussions about the origin of energy in a post fossil fuel world are quickly dominated by a general exchange of mostly fruitless arguments about the future contribution of nuclear energy. In this paper we discuss the status of nuclear energy today and analyze its potential evolution during the next 10-20 years. The facts are that nuclear energy contributes only about 14% of the world's electric energy mix today, and as electric energy contributes itself only about 16% to the end energy use, its contribution is essentially negligible. Still, nuclear energy is plagued already with a long list of unsolved problems. Among the less known problems one finds the difficulties that nuclear plants can not provide power according to needs, but have to be operated at full power also during times of low demand. As a result, regions with large contributions from nuclear power need some backup hydropower storage systems. Without sufficient storage capacity, cheap electric energy is suggested during low demand times, which obviously results in wasteful applications. The better known problems, without solutions since at least 40 years, are the final safe storage of the accumulated highly radioactive nuclear waste, that uranium itself is a very limited and non renewable energy resource and that enormous amounts of human resources, urgently needed to find a still unknown path towards a low energy future, are blocked by useless research on fusion energy. Thus, nuclear energy is not a solution to our energy worries but part of the problem.
  • Article
    In this paper, we argue that Asia's unique geography, abundant low-emission energy resources, rapid economic growth, and rising energy demands merit consideration of a Pan-Asian Energy Infrastructure. In our study, we focus on development of wind and solar resources in Australia, China, Mongolia, and Vietnam as the potential foundation for an electricity grid stretching from China to Australia. Hourly climate data for a full year are used to estimate renewable energy generation, electricity demand, generation capacity are projected forward to the year 2025, and economic dispatch in an international market is simulated to demonstrate cost benefits. Intermittency, connectivity, future dispatch orders, storage, line losses, and engineering and financial issues are all addressed.