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Tracking global bicycle ownership patterns

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... We also obtained and estimated national household populations in the years of interest. The dataset represented 1.25 billion households, and a 42% household weighted average ownership indicates average indicates that there at least half a billion bicycles in homes around the world. 1 Details on the data collection process can be found in Oke et al. (2015). ...
... To do this, we defined a measure of connectivity for each pair of countries based on the presence of a shared land border and the separation between the ownership group occupied by each. We then applied principles of mixing and assortativity to describe patterns in associations between the bicycle ownership groups defined in an earlier study (Oke et al. 2015). Mixing was considered strictly on the basis of group, while assortativity was considered by the measure of connectivity defined-the weighted degree. ...
... For a complete discussion on the global and group trends, please refer toOke et al. (2015). Also, trends in bicycle ownership for each country in the dataset set can be viewed in Appendix B (Ibid). ...
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The interest in bicycling and its determining factors is growing within the public health, transportation and geography communities. Ownership is one factor affecting bicycle usage, but work is still ongoing to not only quantify its effects but also to understand patterns in its growth and influence. In recent work, we mined and discovered patterns in global bicycle ownership that showed the existence of four characteristic country groups and their trends. Building on these results, we show in this paper that the ownership dataset can be modeled as a network. First, we observe mixing tendencies that indicate neighboring countries are more likely to be in the same ownership group and we map the likelihoods for cross-group mixings. Further, we define the strength of connections between countries by their proximity in ownership levels. We then determine the weighted degree assortative coefficient for the network and for each group relative to the network. We find that while the weighted degree assortativity of the ownership network is statistically insignificant, the highest and lowest ownership groups exhibit disassortative behavior with respect to the entire network. The second and third ranked groups, however, are strongly assortative. Our model serves as a step toward further work in studying the relationship between proximity and bicycle ownership among nations and unearthing possible patterns of influence. Considering further developments, this work can inform policy-relevant recommendations toward regional planning. This effort also contributes to expanding research in assortativity analyses, especially in weighted networks.
... In 1992, there was at least one bicycle in each house, with 97.2% of households owning at least one bike. This dropped to 48.7% in 2007 due to motorized vehicle use, then rose to 63.2% in 2009 (Oke et al., 2015) because of the fast growth of the bicycle exporting sector (13.06% increase each year). Despite increases in bicycle production, Chinese household use of bicycles has significant reduced, which has resulted in reduced physical activity and increased cardiovascular disease (Wu et al., 2016). ...
... The highest bicycle ownership rates are mostly in European countries, such as Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, and Slovenia, with more than 80% bicycle ownership. Several other European countries, together with the US, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, and China, have a level of 60% (Oke et al., 2015). A survey has done in Hungary, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Netherlands, and the UK shows 15% of participants ride 1-3 times a month, 29.7% 1-2 days a week, 36.6% ride 3 or more days a week, and 18% cycled daily (Prati et al., 2019). ...
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Cycling has been promoted as a healthy, economical, and environmentally friendly mode of travel; however, its use has been hampered by a lack of safe infrastructure. This study revisits the political economy theorems of Adam Smith, Joseph Stiglitz, and Ronald Coase, to better guide government investment decisions on cycling infrastructure and to illustrate the trade-offs between the investment in cycling and automotive infrastructure. When improving infrastructure, there is no perfect policy, so a clear statement should be made to give the public a better understanding. This paper highlights that every road user should consider the difficulties of all other users on the road. Policy makers should consider cyclists’ difficulties and try to find an investment solution that maximizes both cyclists’ and car drivers’ benefits. Putting cycle paths on the side of roads constrains the value of both bicycles and cars; separate cycling paths should be considered. Political economy theorems include moral, wellbeing, and social costs that can help policy makers make the best investments in cycling infrastructure..
... 2018). However, Oke et al. (2015) analyzed data for 150 countries in the period 1989-2012 and reported that the household bicycle ownership exhibits a different pattern across the world. They identified four clusters of countries with different bicycle ownership characteristics. ...
... South American countries have an average bicycle ownership of 49% (Oke et al., 2015), which represents a sizeable potential use as an alternative transport mode. Several cities, such as Rosário, Bogotá, São Paulo, Santiago, and Rio de Janeiro, promote biking as a sustainable transport mode and stimulate their use through different initiatives, such as bicycle sharing and hiring schemes and the expansion of the cycling infrastructure (BID, 2015). ...
... Household bicycle ownership, in Thailand country-wide, is approximately 60% (Oke et al., 2015). ...
... By the 1990s, they were banned on major roads due to safety and congestion issues. Approximately 23% of households own bicycles (Oke et al., 2015). Although it is estimated that up to 35% of destinations are within a 15minute walk or bicycle trip, the majority of short trips are made by paratransit and cars (Leather et al., 2011). ...
Thesis
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This thesis analyses how transport policy at different levels of governance is responding to sustainability challenges and how such policies can be strengthened, particularly for climate change mitigation in the ASEAN region. Its academic contribution comprises the application of transition and policy studies to low-carbon transport and sustainable development. The main conclusions are: 1) The Avoid – Shift – Improve approach needs to be expanded with Access, Lifestyle and Transition considerations in order to be an effective framework that does justice to the distributional, systemic and behavioural aspects of low-carbon transport policy; 2) The newer international climate instruments, such as NAMAs, NDCs and the GCF, show more potential than the Kyoto Protocol instruments to promote sustainable, low-carbon transport, as they are better aligned to national circumstances and better suited to address the barriers that developing country policymakers face; 3) ASEAN instruments around transport focus on policy cooperation and reflect ‘networked regionalism’. Sustainable transport has played a relatively small role in ASEAN cooperation but this role is growing, and a range of ‘soft’ measures can be used to further promote low-carbon transport in its member countries; 4) At the national level, transport policy objectives support international sustainable development and climate goals, however the instruments, mechanisms and calibrations need to be strengthened to reach those objectives. Climate change has, in a few cases, led to policy windows for modifying transport policy; 5) At the local level, Southeast Asian cities such as Bangkok and Manila increasingly recognise the potential and benefits of cycling, yet much remains to be done in policy and planning to move cycling beyond a niche activity.
... in Thailand country-wide, is approximately 60% (Oke et al., 2015) Since 2008 cycling groups (mostly for fun and recreation), NGOs or campaigns for cycling as transport mode, media (e.g. ...
... By the 1990s, they were banned on major roads due to safety and congestion issues. In the past two decades approximately 23% of households own bicycles (Oke et al., 2015). ...
Article
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The Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) recognises the role of non-motorised transport for sustainable urban development in its policy framework. National and local policymakers in Thailand and The Philippines, two tropical countries without a tradition of urban cycling, are increasingly paying attention to cycling as well. This article aims to assess the current situation and progress in cycling, using Bangkok and Metropolitan Manila as case study cities, and to describe the necessary conditions for advancing the significance of cycling in tropical megacities. This is done by operationalising the so-called Technological Innovation Systems (TIS) framework, which has been used in transition studies since 2008, however never for cycling. As such this article also ‘tests’ this framework for its application in sustainable transportation. The two case studies are characterised with regards to the current role of cycling in the mobility system, its infrastructure, governance system and existing research on the potential and barriers. We find that TIS can readily be applied to our cases, with the analysis showing that elements such as knowledge development, actor networks, e-bike adoption, infrastructure, resource mobilisation and legitimation are not well developed; on the other hand, flat terrain, attention for cycling for health and environment, heavy congestion, expansion of public transport, growing bike industry, active university communities, and the emergence of advocacy coalitions, could open up opportunities for increasing its modal share.
... Amsterdam, with a high active transport patronage, has street and intersection densities of 30.7 km/km 2 and 314.4, respectively, and Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso, with a high bicycle ownership (Oke et al., 2015), has average street and intersection densities of 14.8 km/km 2 and 87, respectively (UN-Habitat, 2020). The narrative on bicycle usage and ownership in these countries and their street connectivity compared to Ghana's suggests an influence of street connectivity on active mode usage. ...
... The sample selection was constrained to the availability of OSM data; we only selected countries with OSM network data exceeding 80% completeness Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2017) and with medium to high levels of bicycle ownership Oke et al. (2015). We believe that country OSM data is a good representation for cities if we are to consider national level policies in provision of infrastructure. ...
Article
Bicycle networks are made up of different types of infrastructure for cars, bikes and mixed use, which has resulted in various definitions being used to describe them. However, it’s crucial to bring these definitions together to understand the structural differences among them and the impact of choices and investments in bike infrastructure. This study examines different definitions of bicycle networks in 47 cities, analysing scaling effects and various network metrics for four different definitions. Understanding structural characteristics of different bicycle networks definitions contributes to the body of knowledge necessary for design interventions by policymakers.
... Clustering approaches have been previously used to group countries, regions or cities to better understand patterns in infrastructure provision (Onda et al., 2014;Pawlak and Ko lodziejczak, 2020), sustainable mobility (Oke et al., 2015;Oke et al., 2019), urban planning (Reese, 2006;Moody et al., 2019), energy consumption (Creutzig et al., 2015) and even dietary composition (Bonhommeau et al., 2013). With regard to water and sanitation accessibility in particular, Onda et al. (2014) performed a cluster analysis of countries to identify commonalities among countries with differing institutional sector arrangements and levels of drinking water and sanitation services. ...
Article
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We present a data-driven typology framework for understanding patterns in drinking water accessibility across low- and middle-income countries. Further, we obtain novel typology-specific insights regarding the relationships between possible explanatory variables and typology outcomes. First, we conducted exploratory factor analysis to obtain a smaller set of interpretable factors from the initial set of 17 drinking water accessibility country measurements on 73 countries. The resulting seven factors summarize the key drivers for water accessibility, and also serve as a vehicle for framing discussions on country outcomes. We clustered the countries based on their seven-dimensional water accessibility factor scores, referring to the resulting three clusters as "typologies'' namely, Decentralized, Centralized and Hybrid. The typologies serve as a vehicle for analyzing water accessibility among countries with similar patterns, in contrast with geographically-based approaches. Finally, we fitted a decision tree classifier to analyze relationships between a country's typology membership and socioeconomic, geographic and transportation explanatory variables. We found that private car ownership, population density and per-capita GDP are most relevant in predicting a country's drinking water accessibility typology.
... If the CBQ is to achieve the kind of utility that the DBQ has done (e.g., in terms of using it to understand some of the determinants of behaviour, such as attitudes) the research community needs to be confident that it measures that which it sets out to measure. Second, the image or perception of cycling is one that varies significantly around the world (e.g., Oke et al., 2015;Oldenziel & de la Bruhèze, 2012) and indeed even within a single country (Aldred & Jungnickel, 2014). This variety is reflected in (or reflects) the extent to which cycling is supported by (for example) transport and planning authorities or private enterprise in different countries (e.g., Teixeira et al., 2020;Todd et al., 2021). ...
Article
Greater uptake of active transport has been argued as necessary for the transport system to achieve relevant sustainability and public health goals; however, the research tools used to investigate behaviour when using these modes are far less well-developed than those used to investigate driving behaviour. This study takes two self-report behavioural measures, the Walking Behaviour Questionnaire (WBQ) and the Cycling Behaviour Questionnaire (WBQ), and pilots them in the UK. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses with data from 428 respondents revealed factor structures different to those described in the limited number of previous studies that used the CBQ and WBQ. Across both questionnaires, scales measuring intentional behaviour differed from original descriptions to a greater extent than did the scale concerning unintentional attention or memory errors. In addition to a validation exercise, this research explored the relationships between variables, finding a correlation between the reported performance of unintentional errors when walking and cycling. Looking in more detail at cycling behaviours, we found that those who rated themselves as more proficient cyclists also reported performing fewer unintentional cycling errors. Results also showed self-reported helmet use to bear little to no relationship with other self-reported cycling behaviours or self-rated cycling proficiency. Finally, using structural equation modelling, we demonstrated that responses to the CBQ add very little (over and above age, gender, and exposure to the road environment) to the explanation of self-reported past collision involvement. In total, only 7% of the variation in past collision involvement was explained by the included variables. We urge caution when using self-report behavioural measures that have not been validated in the context of intended use, and the importance of using such measures in combination with other approaches rather than in isolation when trying to develop an understanding of overall system performance.
... These tantalizing prospects provide ample motivation to improve accessibility to bicycles and to improve their performance to increase appeal. With some estimates putting the number of privately owned bicycles at over 580 million [4], even incremental improvements in bicycle design methodology would undoubtedly have an immense impact. ...
Preprint
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This paper presents a data-driven analysis of the structural performance of 4500 community-designed bicycle frames. We present FRAMED -- a parametric dataset of bicycle frames based on bicycles designed by bicycle practitioners from across the world. To support our data-driven approach, we also provide a dataset of structural performance values such as weight, displacements under load, and safety factors for all the bicycle frame designs. By exploring a diverse design space of frame design parameters and a set of ten competing design objectives, we present an automated way to analyze the structural performance of bicycle frames. Our structural simulations are validated against physical experimentation on bicycle frames. Through our analysis, we highlight overall trends in bicycle frame designs created by community members, study several bicycle frames under different loading conditions, identify non-dominated design candidates that perform well on multiple objectives, and explore correlations between structural objectives. Our analysis shows that over 75\% of bicycle frames created by community members are infeasible, motivating the need for AI agents to support humans in designing bicycles. This work aims to simultaneously serve researchers focusing on bicycle design as well as researchers focusing on the development of data-driven design algorithms, such as surrogate models and Deep Generative Methods. The dataset and code are provided at http://decode.mit.edu/projects/framed/.
... An analysis of the survey data from 150 countries reports that around 42% of households on the planet are owned with at least one bicycle (Oke et al., 2015). In addition to seamless door-todoor mobility, several economic, environmental, health and societal benefits have made the bicycle mode highly desirable for short trips. ...
Article
This study deals with the development of artificial intelligence (AI)-based bicycle level of service (BLOS) models for urban road segments carrying heterogeneous traffic. To accomplish this, the required data sets on the road geometric, traffic and built-environmental conditions are collected from 84 road segments located in various parts of four Indian cities. The satisfaction levels of bicyclists at each site are also assessed using a Likert scale of 1–6 (excellent–worst). Subsequently, three promising AI techniques namely, Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Genetic programming (GP) and Bayesian regularization neural network (BRNN) are utilized to develop the BLOS models. All models are trained and tested with eight significant attributes of the road segments. Among all models, the MARS-based one has shown the best prediction performance in the present context with a coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.92 with averaged observations. On the other hand, GP has produced the simplest (regression-like) but reliable model, which is the most favourable for field applications. The relative importance of input variables has concluded that the outermost lane width, traffic volume, on-street parking activities and pavement condition index are by far the most important variables in the present context. Hence, these attributes should be largely prioritized in the planning process to enhance the perceived BLOS effortlessly.
... Survey data tracked between 1989 to 2012 for 150 countries around the world revealed that the weighted mean percentage of bicycle ownership ranges from 20% to 81% with some nine countries in Northern Europe and one in West Africa (Burkina Faso) having the highest and 62 countries from West, Central and North Africa and Central Asia having the lowest (Oke et al., 2015). Despite the assertion that ownership of bicycles does not translate into use, in Europe and especially countries like the Netherlands and Denmark, ownership and ridership have been extensively discussed to be very high Buehler, 2008, 2010;Buehler and Pucher, 2012;Tiwari, 2008) if not equivalent. ...
Article
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The study seeks to identify bicycle ownership and ridership and gain insights into how demographics, perceptions and experiences of respondents influenced the status of cycling in Tamale Metropolis. Earlier studies have focused on examining the determinants of utility cycling among adults in the same metropolis, but this study assesses cycling from a broader perspective in terms of demographics, barriers, and promotional strategies. A cross-sectional survey was carried out with 500 semi-structured questionnaires through mainly a face-to-face approach. Five trained survey assistants administered the questionnaires within demarcated zones in the metropolis and tracked participants by geographic information system. Binary logistic regression, chi-squared test and descriptive statistics were employed in the analysis of the data. Out of the 439 valid questionnaires, bicycle ownership and ridership were 56% and 78% respectively. Gender and occupation were significant in owning and riding bicycles, where p < 0.05. Males and the non-income earners (i.e., students, apprentices and unemployed) were more likely to ride and own bicycles. Cycling was prevalent among low-income individuals and in households where bicycles were available. The major motivation of bicycle riders was affordability. Age was statistically insignificant to owning or riding bicycles since every age group cycled as much. Despite the existing infrastructure provision for cycling and its associated benefits, there is a latent desire to shift from bicycles by 85% of the riders. A chi-square test conducted revealed that the desire to shift from bicycle use was independent of one's gender, age and occupation, but associated with bicycle ownership. Moreover, speed, fatigue endured in riding and inadequate infrastructure were mentioned as part of the factors that discourage cycling. This study, therefore, recommends government interventions such as a reduction in bicycle cost, and the introduction of electric bicycles to meet the respondents' transport needs of speed and travelling with less fatigue.
... Then, we performed the clustering procedure using seven common clustering algorithms (Table 1), and according to the goodness-of-fit measure defined by Mérigot et al. (2010), the clustering method of best fit was found. Finally, the gap-statistic test (Oke et al. 2015;Tibshirani et al. 2001) was used to determine the optimal number of clusters. ...
Article
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With socioeconomic development, the shift from staple food-based to diversified and nutrition-dense diet types will put pressure on land resources in Africa. In order to elaborate the impact of dietary pattern on arable land resources, we classify all African countries into five clusters according to their dietary characteristics and the change patterns of diet, and assess how much land needed for each cluster to feed its people from 1961 to 2011. We then quantify the contributions of dietary pattern, along with population growth and agricultural technology, to the land requirements for food (LRF) for each cluster. Most clusters’ dietary patterns in Africa were dominated by staple food and at low nutritional levels, lagging far behind those of developed regions, with great potential for change. Throughout the whole time period, population growth, rather than diet, was the major driver of the LRF. But after 1991, the contribution of dietary pattern gradually increased and exceeded the contribution of agricultural productivity for all five dietary clusters. Our results show that more research should focus on how to sustainably increase animal-derived food productivity. Meanwhile, a call for more researches needs to focus on the diet and its impact on food and nutrition security, especially in less-developed areas. As the African cities have been rapidly sprawling, it is important to focus on the interaction between food security and urbanization in Africa.
... Transportation has historically been one of the fastestgrowing sources of greenhouse gas emissions, currently accounting for as much as 14% of the total [1]. While there are at least 580 million privately owned bicycles (bikes) worldwide [2], further increasing bicycle use has the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We believe that enabling a bicycle design process that emphasizes customization for targeted use is essential to increase ridership. ...
Preprint
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In this paper, we present "BIKED," a dataset comprised of 4500 individually designed bicycle models sourced from hundreds of designers. We expect BIKED to enable a variety of data-driven design applications for bicycles and generally support the development of data-driven design methods. The dataset is comprised of a variety of design information including assembly images, component images, numerical design parameters, and class labels. In this paper, we first discuss the processing of the dataset and present the various features provided. We then illustrate the scale, variety, and structure of the data using several unsupervised clustering studies. Next, we explore a variety of data-driven applications. We provide baseline classification performance for 10 algorithms trained on differing amounts of training data. We then contrast classification performance of three deep neural networks using parametric data, image data, and a combination of the two. Using one of the trained classification models, we conduct a Shapley Additive Explanations Analysis to better understand the extent to which certain design parameters impact classification predictions. Next, we test bike reconstruction and design synthesis using two Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) trained on images and parametric data. We furthermore contrast the performance of interpolation and extrapolation tasks in the original parameter space and the latent space of a VAE. Finally, we discuss some exciting possibilities for other applications beyond the few actively explored in this paper and summarize overall strengths and weaknesses of the dataset.
... Today, the bicycle is considered by planners to be a sustainable mode of transportation with net benefits for society (Gössling & Choi, 2015). In many cities of the global South, despite increasing motorisation, the bicycle remains a significant mode of transportation due to its flexibility and its accessibility (Oke, Bhalla, Love, & Siddiqui, 2015). However, due to their direct proximity with traffic and increased ventilation, cyclists are directly exposed to this pollution though they do not generate it. ...
Article
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Cyclists constitute a population particularly exposed to atmospheric and noise pollution in urban environments; at the same time, they contribute to its reduction. For about ten years now, more and more studies have been completed to assess cyclists’ exposure, comparing this mode of transportation with others, quantifying its impacts in term of individual and collective health, understanding cyclists’ perceptions regarding their exposure, etc. Though some literature reviews have examined some of these specific issues, none have yet proposed a general overview of this field of study. Therefore, this mapping literature review fills this gap by jointly analysing 205 articles and identifying elements of consensus and disagreement, as well as existing gaps. Among others, our results indicate that the cities in the South and exposure to noise are under-studied and that cyclists’ ventilation is still too rarely accounted for, regardless of the type of studies. Modelling studies regarding exposure are too heterogeneous methodologically to allow a generalisation of their results. Conversely, intermodal comparison studies clearly indicate overexposure for cyclists compared to other modes. Also, health studies conclude that, either individually or collectively, the benefits of cycling surpass the costs of exposure to atmospheric pollution. The knowledge produced by this research trend remains difficult to exploit by urban planners, but the recent work done seems to offer more practical perspectives to professionals.
... Although China still has the world's largest stock of bikes with around 400 million units from the total quantity point of view, its bike ownership on a per capita level (0.3 now and a peak around 0.43 in the 1990s) is much lower than that of many industrialized countries (for example 0.9 for Denmark and 1.1 for Netherland) (Fig. 2(a)). This indicates a potential increase of bike stock in the future in China if it follows patterns of those countries, which may further increase the cycling modal share and help to alleviate Oke et al., 2015). (The number after TD indicates the average lifetime assumption; detailed data sources for the three BU stock could also be found in Table S1.). ...
Article
The booming dockless sharing bikes (DSBs) in China, as a new sharing economy business model, have attracted increasing public and academic attention after 2015. The impact of DSBs development on the stocks and flows of bikes and the resource and climate consequences of short-lived DSBs, however, remain poorly understood. In this study, we characterized the stocks and flows of both DSBs and regular private bikes in China from 1950 to 2020 and evaluated the carbon cost and benefit of booming DSBs. We found China's bike consumption and stock decreased slightly after a fast development from the late 1970s and then a peak in the mid-1990s, resulting in a relatively low ownership of approximately 0.3 unit per person and 70% of production being exported in recent years. Despite a temporal boost, the unsustainable development of DSBs may affect the bike industry in the long term, because of its skyrocketing market share (from less than 1% to 80%) and short lifetime. Nevertheless, DSBs development still leads to an overall climate gain in China, due to its higher stock efficiency and potentials to substitute more carbon intensive trips. We suggest an urgent need for more empirical studies on the use (e.g., substitution ratio for other transportation models) of DSBs in China and a necessity for better management of DSB development with efforts of all relevant stakeholders.
... 54 (Soares, 2013) (Oke et al., 2015) ...
Chapter
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This research seeks to analyze the challenges surrounding school-age mobility in African contexts and the effects of bicycles as an alternative means of transportation to promote access to the school environment, with particular focus on Portuguese-speaking African countries. (PALOP). Such analysis stems from a literature review and data compilation of governmental and intergovernmental socioeconomic databases. Bicycle is depicted as a cheap and affordable transportation technology, playing a role in democratizing mobility for low-income groups. Analysis of governmental and NGO programs shows that by increasing efficiency and reducing student commuting time by up to 70%, cycling increases attendance by 28%, decreasing late attendance rates by 95% and having positive effects on improving academic performance. In PALOP, the bicycle ownership rate is considered low, with an average occurrence less than 20% of households. If considered together, this group of countries represents Africa’s third largest bicycle market, with a share of 10% in the continent. It is estimated that a contingent of 12.3 million school-age children could benefit from PALOP bicycle mobility incentive programs, with the potential to reintegrate 2.5 million school-age children who have stopped attending schools. Key-words: mobility, bicycles, education, Africa, non-motorized transport (NMT), PALOP.
... Operating parameters Gleason and Miskimins (2012) . b The two values of β are selected according to the bicycle ownership and mode share data in Gunn (2018) and Oke et al. (2015) . c The two values of ρ are selected conservatively by referring to the empirical data of bike usage found in Hampshire and Marla (2012) , Lane (2015) and Suzuki and Nakamura (2017) . ...
Article
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Transit systems are designed in which access and egress can occur via a shared-bike service. Patrons may walk to shared-bike docking stations nearest their origins, and then cycle to their nearest transit stations where they deposit the bikes. The travel pattern is reversed when patrons cycle from their final transit stations on to their destinations. Patrons choose between this option and that of solely walking to or from transit stations. Shared bikes are priced to achieve the system-optimal assignment of the two feeder options. Transit trunk-line networks are laid-out in hybrid fashion, as proposed in Daganzo (2010). Transit lines thus form square grids inside city centers, and radiate outward in the peripheries. As in Daganzo (2010) and other studies, a set of simplifying assumptions are adopted that pertain primarily to the nature of travel demand. These enable the formulation of a parsimonious, continuous model. The model produces designs that minimize total travel costs, and is ideally suited for high-level (i.e., strategic) planning. A similar model is developed for systems in which access or egress to or from transit can occur solely by walking, or by walking and riding fixed-route feeder buses in combination. The shared-bike and feeder-bus models both complement Daganzo's original model in which access and egress occur solely by walking. Comparisons of these feeder options are drawn through numerical analyses. These are performed in parametric fashion by varying city size, travel demand, and economic conditions; and for trunk services that are provided either by ordinary buses, Bus Rapid Transit, or metro rail. Designs are produced for cases in which shared-bike and feeder-bus services are made to fit pre-existing and unchangeable trunk-line networks; and for cases in which trunk and feeder services are optimized jointly. Outcomes reveal that shared-bike feeder systems can often reduce costs over walking alone, with cost savings as high as 7%, even when the shared bikes are made to fit a pre-existing transit network. Shared-biking often outperforms feeder-bus service as well. We further find that the joint optimization of trunk and shared-bike feeder services can reduce costs not only to users, but also to the transit agency that operates these services. Savings to the agency can be used to subsidize shared-bike services. We show that with or without this subsidy, shared-bike systems can always break even when they are suitably priced, and jointly optimized with trunk service.
... Australia and New Zealand's cities mirror the low rates of cycling in North America. Few countries (see Table 1.4), despite the predisposition other than the very high rates of car-free and low-income populations in Africa and Asia, have rates of cycling approaching anything near those of Copenhagen (Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso, which has a positive politics towards cycling, is an exception; see Oke et al., 2015). While Copenhagen's cycling trends are impressive by any standards, the municipality has set itself the goal to increase cycling rates. ...
Book
With twenty-nine percent of all trips made by bicycle, Copenhagen is considered a model of green transport. This book considers the underlying political conditions that enabled cycling to appeal to such a wide range of citizens of Copenhagen and asks how this can be replicated elsewhere. Despite Copenhagen’s global reputation, its success has been a result of a long political struggle and is far from completely secure. Car use in Denmark is increasing, including in Copenhagen suburbs, and new developments in Copenhagen include more parking for cars. There is a political tension in Copenhagen over the spaces of cycling, the car, and public transit. In considering examples of backlashes and conflicts over street space in Copenhagen, this book argues that the kinds of debates happening in Copenhagen are very similar to the debates regularly occurring in cities throughout the world. This makes Copenhagen more, not less, comparable to many cities around the world, including cities in the US. This book will appeal to upper-level undergraduates and graduates in urban geography, city planning, transportation, environmental studies, as well as transportation advocates, urban policy-makers, and anyone concerned about climate change and looking to identify paths forward in their own cities and localities.
... In Beijing, bicycle use fell from 63% in 1986 to 14% in 2013 (Horton 2015). Bike ownership across the world is in decline since 1989, being highest in Northern Europe and lowest in West, Central and North Africa, and Central Asia (Oke et al. 2015). ...
... Cycling is a popular means of transport in Asian cities. About half of the 299 households in Asia own at least one bicycle (Oke et al., 2015). Huang et al. (2012) reported 300 that cyclists were exposed to PM 2.5 concentrations of 49 μg m -3 in Beijing, which is 301 comparable to PM 2.5 levels reported for European cities and higher than those reported in 302 American cities (Figure 2 (Table S1), and could be even higher in Asian cities due to 306 high ambient levels. ...
Article
The World Health Organization estimates 3.7 million deaths in 2012 in low- and middle-income Asian countries due to outdoor air pollution. However, these estimates do not account for the higher exposures of specific particulate matter (PM) components – including fine particles (PM⁠2.5), ultrafine particles (UFP) and black carbon (BC) – typical of transport microenvironments (TMEs). With the rapidly growing number of on-road vehicles in Asia, human exposure to PM is an increasing concern. The aim of this review article is to comprehensively assess the PM⁠2.5, UFP, and BC related studies in Asian TMEs to understand the extent of exposure, the underlying factors leading to such exposure, and how Asian exposures compare to those found in Europe and the United States of America (USA). Pollutants considered and their health impacts are identified, along with the key factors that influence personal exposure in TMEs. We also characterised the human exposure to PM⁠2.5, UFP, and BC in TMEs (walk, cycle, car, and bus) in cities of Asia, Europe, and the USA. Instrumentation and measurement methods, exposure modeling techniques, and regulation are reviewed for PM⁠2.5, UFP, and BC. Relatively few studies have been carried out in urban Asian TMEs (i.e., walk, cycle, car, and bus) where PM⁠2.5, UFP, and BC had generally higher concentrations compared to Europe and USA. Based on available data, PM⁠2.5 concentrations while walking were 1.6 and 1.2 times higher in Asia (average 42μgm⁠−3) compared to Europe (26μgm⁠−3) and the USA (35μgm⁠−3), respectively. Likewise, average PM⁠2.5 concentrations in car (74μgm⁠−3) and bus (76μgm⁠−3) modes in Asia were approximately two to three times higher than in Europe and the USA. UFP exposures in Asia were twice as high for pedestrians and up to ∼9-times as high in cars than in Europe or the USA. Asian pedestrians were exposed to ∼7-times higher BC concentrations compared with pedestrians in the USA. Stochastic population-based models have yet to be applied widely in Asia but can be used to quantify inter-individual and inter-regional variability in exposures and to assess the contribution of TMEs to total exposures for multiple pollutants. The review also highlights specific gaps in the data set that need to be filled by future research as UFP and BC studies were rare as were studies of pedestrian and cyclist exposure in Asian TMEs.
... Another system was explained to explore the reasons that Amsterdam and Wuhan have gone in different directions in implementing bicycle as main city transportation [7]. The technology tracking system was gathered the data from 150 countries of household bicycle possession and ownership values [8]. However, there is still room to be studied the perception of sustainable bicycle from user in Indonesia. ...
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This paper presents the design of sustainable paper bicycle which describes the stage by stage in the production of paper bicycle. The objective of this project is to design a sustainable paper bicycles to be used for children under five years old. The design analysis emphasizes in screening method to ensure the design fulfil the safety purposes. The evaluation concept is presented in designing a sustainable paper bicycle to determine highest rating. Project methodology is proposed for developing a sustainable paper bicycle. Design analysis of pedal, front and rear wheel, seat, and handle were presented using AutoCAD software. The design optimization was performed to fulfil the safety factors by modifying the material size and dimension. Based on the design analysis results, it is found that the optimization results met the factor safety. As a result, a sustainable paper bicycle was proposed for children under five years old.
... An analysis of the survey data from 150 countries reports that around 42% of households on the planet are owned with at least one bicycle (Oke et al., 2015). In addition to seamless door-todoor mobility, several economic, environmental, health and societal benefits have made the bicycle mode highly desirable for short trips. ...
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Roadways in developing countries usually carry heterogeneous traffic where on-street bicyclists encounter a very complex interaction with various categories of vehicles. In order to quantify the operational conditions of bicyclists under such conditions, a reliable bicycle level of service (BLOS) model is yet to be devised. This study intends to partially fill this gap by proposing a BLOS model suitable for urban road segments in mid-sized cities carrying heterogeneous traffic. A recently introduced artificial intelligence technique namely, associativity functional network (FN) is implemented for the development of this model. FN is a problem-driven approach that overcomes several limitations of the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The urban bicycling environments persisting on 74 street segments are analyzed, and eight influencing variables (geometric, traffic and built environmental, etc.) are identified. Of these variables, interruptions caused by frequent stoppages of intermittent public transits and frequency of driveways carrying high volume of traffic are newly introduced. In the modeling process, a strong relationship has been established between the identified variables and perceived BLOS scores collected through perception surveys. The resulting BLOS model has shown a high reliability for its applications in the mid-sized cities and has reported a high correlation coefficient (R) of 0.94 with the average observations. Besides, a sensitivity analysis is also carried out to identify the relative importance of input variables based on their contribution in the BLOS estimation. As observed, effective width of the outside lane, traffic volume, and on-street parking activity are by far the most important variables, which contribute 38.3%, 21.8%, and 12.7% respectively in the prediction of facility BLOS. Thus, these three attributes should be largely prioritized while making any plan of actions for the betterment of bicyclists.
... Although cycling is not a common mode of travel in Kuala Lumpur yet, there is some moderate leisure cycling activity in KL, and in theory a vast potential for cycling uptake (Oke et al., 2015). However, it is not the only reason that makes Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia's capital city, an interesting region to study. ...
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In recent years, cycling has emerged as an increasingly important consideration for national and local authorities around the world, primarily because of the public's growing awareness about its health benefits and greenhouse emissions reduction. In the last decade, transport related policies in Malaysia and particularly in Kuala Lumpur have been seeking to support cycling as a travel mode, yet, cycling levels in Kuala Lumpur remain low and evidence about interventions are mixed. Data from an exploratory case study is used here to understand the transportation system planning and urban growth of Kuala Lumpur and their impact on cycling uptake, examining current status of cycling facilities in KL, evaluating effectiveness of the cycling interventions, and the attitudes of participants of cycling events towards using bicycle. Using a combination of evidences from existing literature, observation referring to the quality and use of the first bicycle pathway in Kuala Lumpur, interviews with city officials and a survey of people's attitudes towards using bicycle, this exploratory research highlights the challenges that a car dependent city faces in its urban transformation and in promoting cycling, as well as the residents' motivations and deterrents to use bicycle for commuting.
... Despite the health benefits of cycling (de Nazelle et al., 2011;Jarrett et al., 2012;Woodcock et al., 2009) and high bicycle ownership in high income countries (Oke et al., 2015), cycling is a little used form of transport in many high income countries (Lindsay et al., 2011;Pucher and Buehler, 2008). Common perceptions of risk may be one of the reasons for this (Koglin and Rye, coverage (Wallop, 2016) that generates or perpetuates perceptions of risk among non-cyclists (Carnall, 2000). ...
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Background Cycling is perceived as an unsafe travel mode in many countries. However, road deaths in England have fallen sharply since 2007. We explored whether differences in fatality rates by age, gender and mode persist, and the associations of deprivation with these. Methods Using ONS (cycling, pedestrian) and Stats19 (driving) 2007–2012 data for travel-related deaths, including pedestrian falls, and National Travel Surveys 2007–2012 travel data, we calculated fatality rates for England by distance (f/bnkm) and time travelled (million hours’ use, f/mhu) by age, travel mode, and gender or residential Index of Multiple Deprivation. Results Fatality rates fell significantly 2007–2009 to 2010–2012: male f/bnkm from 2.8 (95%CI 2.7–2.9) to 2.0 (1.9–2.1) for driving; 32.1 (28.5–36.0) to 20.8 (18.1–23.9) for cycling; and 51.4 (48.5–54.4) to 36.7 (34.3–39.3) for walking. Fatality rates varied by age, gender, and mode. Driving and walking fatality rate ratios were generally higher for males than females. For males 17–20y, fatality rates were 0.76 (0.69–0.83)/mhu for driving and 0.28 (0.18–0.42)/mhu for cycling but were similar by distance. Age-specific rates were J-shape for cycling, U-shape for driving, and increased exponentially with age for walking. Fatality rates aged 80+ were an order of magnitude higher in each mode than the all-age mean. Compared with those aged 17–20, rate ratios were significantly lower for male drivers 21+ and female drivers 21–74, but were higher for male cyclists aged 55+ and pedestrians 45+ (male) and 65+ (female). People living in the most deprived quintile generally had higher fatality rates than those in the least deprived quintile overall (three modes combined) and for walking but not for cycling; Rate ratios were highest for pedestrians 35–64 and drivers 35–54. Conclusions Fatality rates for walking, cycling and driving are higher for males than females at almost every age and vary more by age than by travel mode. Deprivation exacerbates walking and driving fatality rates.
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Introduction To evaluate the relationship between a history of bicycling and symptomatic and structural outcomes of knee osteoarthritis (OA), the most common form of arthritis. Methods This was a retrospective, cross-sectional study within the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), where we investigated OAI participants with complete data on bicycling, knee pain, and radiographic evidence of knee OA. We used a self-administered questionnaire at the 96-month OAI visit to identify participation in bicycling during four time periods throughout a participant’s lifetime (ages 12–18, 19–34, 35–49, and > 50 years old). Using logistic regression, we evaluated the influence of prior bicycling status (any history, history for each time period, number of periods cycling) on three outcomes at the 48-month OAI visit: frequent knee pain, radiographic OA (ROA), and symptomatic radiographic OA (SOA), adjusting for age and gender. Results 2607 participants were included; 44.2% were male; mean age was 64.3 (SD 9.0) years; body mass index was 28.5 (SD 4.9) kg/m ² . The adjusted risk ratio for the outcome of frequent knee pain, ROA, and SOA among those who reported any history of bicycling compared to non-bicyclers was 0.83 (0.73-0.92), 0.91 (0.85-0.98), and 0.79 (0.68-0.90), respectively. We observed a dose-response among those who participated in bicycling during more time periods. Conclusions People who participated in bicycling had a lower prevalence of frequent knee pain, ROA, and SOA. The benefit appeared cumulative. This study indicates that bicycling may be favorable to knee health and should be encouraged.
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The old adage has two people out hiking who run into a bear. One starts running while the other asks ‘why are you running? You can’t outrun a bear’. To which the other responds, ‘I don’t have to outrun the bear. I only have to outrun you’. Hiking/trekking is not typically a competitive endeavor characterized by contests but, like many endeavors/pursuits/activities, competition can be injected into it; thereby sportifying it. Swimming is a sport (under certain conditions). At the same time, it is also a recreational activity and a form of physical exercise; likewise angling/fishing, climbing, cross-country skiing, mountain biking, kayaking, rowing, surfing, et al. The categorization of many activities under the umbrella of sport has its uses to understand the wider concept of what is sport, but the purpose of why one engages in ‘physical activities taking place in a natural environment’ can sometimes be more important than whether some activities might or might not qualify to be classified under the rubric of sports at all. Indicators exist to show whether participants are actually engaged toward—driven in a way, even— to further their skills in their focused activity (if it is a focused activity at all!––i.e. a ‘serious leisure’ pursuit or just a recreational hobby). From this perspective (of looking at sport-like and sporting activities in other than Olympic-style forms) this paper explores the differentiations between sport (including nature sport) contests, nature challenge activities (NCAs) and outdoor recreation from the standpoint of the most relevant factors that distinguish them: rules, skill development, purpose for engaging in them. This paper also makes the case that differentiating participants in the above activities by purpose (as either nature challenge recreationalists or nature sport devotees) has utility; to better help research into people’s engagement in physical activities in natural environments.
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This paper presents a data-driven analysis of the structural performance of 4500 community-designed bicycle frames. We introduce FRAMED – a parametric dataset of bicycle frames based on bicycles designed by bicycle practitioners from across the world. To support our data-driven approach, we also provide a dataset of structural performance values such as weight, displacements under load, and safety factors for all the bicycle frame designs. Our structural simulations are validated against results from physical experiments on real bicycle frames. By exploring a diverse design space of frame design parameters and a set of ten competing design objectives, we present a data-driven approach to analyze the structural performance of bicycle frames. Through our analysis, we highlight overall trends in bicycle frame designs created by community members and study several bicycle frames under different loading conditions. We then undertake a systematic search for optimal performance and feasibility-predictive Machine Learning models, applying a state-of-the-art Automated Machine Learning framework. We demonstrate that the proposed AutoML models outperform commonly used models such as Neural Networks and XGBoost, which we tune using Bayesian hyperparameter optimization. This work aims to simultaneously serve researchers focusing on bicycle design as well as researchers focusing on the development of data-driven design algorithms, such as surrogate models and Deep Generative Models. The dataset and code are provided at http://decode.mit.edu/projects/framed/.
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Demand Responsive Connectors (DRCs) have become a more general-purpose flexible transit service that caters to patrons’ personal needs. The traditional DRC operation, however, suffers from low efficiency due to excessive detours and incurs diseconomies of scale with respect to the demand and service area. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel DRC fed by shared bikes, which functions as an access/egress mode for certain request points. Analytical models are derived for the joint design of such a hybrid system. A mixed-integer non-linear programme is established to minimise the total system cost. A heuristic solution algorithm is developed by combining the simulated annealing and branch-and-bound algorithms. A series of numerical cases are designed to evaluate the proposed system’s performance against the traditional ones. The results demonstrate that the introduction of shared bikes can reduce the DRC tour length and consequently save total system costs.
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There is a dearth of evidence-based research on the determinants of utility cycling in rural areas of developing countries including India. Data from the Census of India shows a sharp increase in the ownership of motorized vehicles among rural Indian households, though bicycles are still the mostly widely-owned transport asset. Four regions comprising rural and semi-urban settlements situated in the periphery of two large central Indian cities, Bhopal and Indore, were selected for examining the relation of utility cycling with personal, household and settlement characteristics. Known correlates of utility cycling from literature were combined with specific questions related to the socio-spatial context and activity-travel pattern of rural areas for developing and administering a questionnaire to individuals selected through a multistage sampling process. Settlement characteristics in terms of size of built-up area, proximity to metropolitan city and distance from the nearest bus-stop were considered. The likelihood of being a regular cyclist or an occasional cyclist in relation to non-cyclists, and the likelihood of being an occasional cyclist in relation to regular cyclists, was estimated using multinomial logistic regression. Gender, educational attainment, frequency of travel outside the village, household income, presence of other members in the household who cycle, and settlement characteristics were found to have significant association with the intensity of utility cycling. Policy measures for encouragement of cycling among rural women and promotion of faster e-bikes are recommended based on the findings.
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Bicycle and scooter commuters are known to expose to more traffic-related pollutants. Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes (BTEXs), and PM2.5 were measured along four routes during rush hour and non-rush hour periods by cyclists and motorcyclists in Taipei, Taiwan. The health impacts were also evaluated using health impact modeling (HIM) approach. The average exposures of total BTEX and PM2.5 were 20.07 ppb and 23.27 μg/m³ for the cyclists and 33.96 ppb and 27.65 μg/m³ for the motorcyclists, respectively. Riding on an “alternative” route resulted in lower exposure. Scooters could contribute more to PM2.5 exposure than buses/trucks and passenger cars. Cyclists could have a lower risk of all-cause mortality and a single-pollutant HIM was found to result in underestimations. In conclusion, the number of scooters in traffic should be reduced, and commuters should be encouraged to shift from gasoline scooters to bicycles to reduce air pollution.
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Cycling helps reduce traffic congestion, environmental pollution and promote a healthy lifestyle for the general public. However, it could also expose cyclists to dangerous environments, resulting in severe consequences and even death. Transport authorities are seeing growing accidents in city regions with increasing cycling population, requiring the development of new risk informed cycling safety policies. This paper aims to develop a new conceptual risk analysis approach based on a Bayesian network (BN) technique to enable the analysis and prediction of the severity of cycling accidents. To identify the risk factors influencing accident severity, 2,269 cycling accident reports from the UK city region were manually collected, where primary data was extracted and analysed. An advanced data training method (i.e. Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes (TAN)) for BN development was applied to investigate their correlation and their individual and combined contributions to cycling accident severity. As a result, the risk factors influencing accident severity are prioritised in terms of their risk contribution. The risk levels of accident severity can be predicted in dynamic situations based on the data from simulated and/or real cycling environments. The findings can provide useful insights for making rational cycling safety policies in proportion to different risk levels.
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Väestötutkimusten perusteella suomalaiset liikkuvat vapaa-ajallaan ja arjen matkoillaan selvästi kansainvälisiä suosituksia vähemmän. Aktiivisten kulkutapojen, kuten pyöräilyn edistäminen paikallis- ja yhteiskuntatasolla vaikuttavat niin yhteiskunnan hyvinvointiin kuin talouteen, ympäristöön ja liikenteen sujuvuuteen. Valtakunnallinen kävelyn ja pyöräilyn edistämisohjelma tähtää pyöräilyn merkittävään lisäämiseen vuoteen 2030 mennessä. Tässä tutkielmassa pyrittiin toteuttamaan valtakunnallisen kävelyn ja pyöräilyn edistämisohjelman linjausta pyöräilyn olosuhteisiin liittyvän tiedonkeruun parantamisesta. Tutkielman tarkoituksena oli selvittää millaiset pyöräilyn fyysiset olosuhteet ovat eri kokoisissa Suomen kunnissa ja ovatko kuntien pyöräilyn kehittämispyrkimykset yhteydessä näihin olosuhteisiin. Tutkielma toteutettiin verkkokyselynä keväällä 2018. Pyöräilyn fyysiset olosuhteet käsittivät kyselyssä pyöräväylien pituudet ja ylläpidon vastuutahot, pyöräily-yhteyksien laatutason ja pyöräväylien talvikunnossapidon. Pyöräilyn kehittämispyrkimykset käsittivät pyöräilyn edistämisohjelmat ja pyöräilypoliittiset päätökset. Perusjoukkona käytettiin kaikkia Manner-Suomen kuntia. Kyselyyn osallistui yhteensä 150 kuntaa, jolloin vastausprosentiksi saatiin 51. Kyselyyn vastanneet olivat kunnan pyöräilyn olosuhteista vastaavia henkilöitä tai työryhmiä. Kyselydata analysoitiin ristiintaulukoimalla ja tilastolliset merkitsevyydet testattiin Khiin neliötestillä, yksisuuntaisella varianssianalyysillä ja riippumattomien otosten t-testillä. Pyöräväyliä oli keskimäärin 126,0 kilometriä kuntaa kohden ja pyöräväylistä keskimäärin 63,5 prosenttia oli kunnan oman ylläpitovastuun alla. Kunnan ylläpitovastuuosuus kasvoi suurempia kuntakokoja kohden. Pyöräily-yhteyksien kokeminen hyväksi vaihteli sekä yhteystyypin että kuntakoon mukaan. Merkitsevä ero vastauksissa kuntakokoluokittain oli kokemuksissa pyöräily-yhteyksien laadusta keskustan lävitse. Pyöräväylien talvikunnossapidossa 60,4 prosenttia kunnista oli määritellyt riittävän hyvät laatuvaatimukset väylien talvihoitoon, mutta samalla 47,1 prosenttia pyöräilyn pääreiteistä hoidettiin yhä viereisen ajoradan luokituksen mukaan. Pyöräilyn kehittämispyrkimykset olivat yhteydessä ainoastaan pyöräväylien pituuteen ja kunnan ylläpito-osuuteen väylistä sekä kokemukseen siitä, että pyöräily-yhteydet keskustan lävitse ovat kunnassa hyvät. Eri kokoiset kunnat vaikuttavat olevan melko yhdenvertaisia pyöräväyliensä asukasmääriin suhteutetuissa pituuksissa. Pyöräväyliensä ylläpidosta kunnat vastaavat pääasiassa itse, joten kunnallisella päätöksenteolla ja toimilla on mahdollista vaikuttaa laajasti pyöräväylien laatuun ja kuntoon. Kunnissa saattaa olla kuitenkin hyvinkin eritasoisia pyöräily-yhteyksiä eri asutusalueilta keskustaan, kouluihin tai palvelukeskittymiin. Pyöräilyn edistämisohjelmilla on aikaisemmissa selvityksissä ja käytännön työssä havaittu olevan yhteyksiä merkityksellisiin pyöräilyn edistysaskeliin kunnissa (LVM 2018; Maijala 2011). Tässä tutkielmassa tarkasteltujen tekijöiden yhteys pyöräilyn kehittämispyrkimyksiin ei ollut aivan yhtä selkeä, mikä voi toisaalta johtua edistämisohjelmien ja päätösten tuoreudesta ja fyysisten olosuhteiden hitaasta muutosvauhdista.
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Studying the dynamics around bicycle mobility in Africa is a way of understanding important processes, as well as allowing observation and analysis of the challenges and opportunities for economic and social development in depressed regions in which the human propulsion vehicle can mean access to essential services. The present study, through a literature review, presents the authors who theorize and investigate bicycle mobility in the African context, taking into account the historical, cultural, political, geographic and economic peculiarities of this vehicle and its positive and negative impacts on the communities in which its use is frequent, as well as the challenges and barrier to the massification of its use. This analysis also covers theories about the technological evolution of artifacts in order to understand the acceptance and incorporation of innovations in social systems. Through the theme of frugal technology it is possible to see how the adaptation of the bicycle can happen aiming at solving problems that go beyond the question of mobility. In this course, the social, economic, historical and cultural dynamics that limit and/or impede the diffusion and massification of NMT in Africa are demonstrated. It is also possible to see the correlation and effects of interpretation and symbolic meanings on the use of this vehicle on the continent. The conclusion reached is that cycling is an adequate and efficient transportation technology and, given the essential conditions, can be widely used in Africa by promoting economic and social development.
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Cycling-inclusive urban planning is attracting attention worldwide because of the environmental, health, economic, and transport benefits inherent to cycling from the individual and the societal perspectives. The Czech Republic is one of the emerging cycling countries that are trying to promote and support cycling, but cycling mode shares are low because of the poor quality of the scarce infrastructure and the psychological barrier of the perceived lack of safety when cycling in mixed traffic. This study takes a multimodal approach based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and focuses on the factors underlying the willingness to share the road from the perspective of cyclists and drivers: positive attitudes toward cycling, positive attitudes toward cyclists’ behavior, social norms toward cycling and anxiety to share the road. A web-based questionnaire was tailor-designed and administered in the Czech Republic via social networks, web forums, and the Civinet network, and a hybrid bivariate-ordered model tested the behavioral framework. Results show that the willingness to share the road as a cyclist or as a driver relates positively to positive attitudes towards cycling and cyclists’ behavior, and negatively to the anxiety of sharing the road. Moreover, mediator effects are observed and a clear relation emerges between the experience on the road as both a cyclist and a driver on the willingness to share the road as a cyclist. Lastly, results show that the factors underlying road sharing intentions are related significantly to gender, travel habits, and perceived personal and infrastructure-related barriers to cycling.
Conference Paper
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Many cities around the world are facing challenges to accommodate bicycle mode within the main stream traffic flow. Under such conditions, transportation planners and engineers are left with limited methodologies to assess service qualities offered by existing facilities for bicycle use. In this regard, present study focused on developing an on-street bicycle service prediction model considering a wide variation in roadway geometric conditions, traffic composition, and driver behaviors. Perception data to acknowledge satisfactions of bicycle users was collected from 74 road segments of Indian mid-sized cities. Artificial intelligence techniques such as Functional Networks (FN) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) were programmed to develop prediction models. Prediction precision of these models were assessed by using coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) etc. Performance of these models were compared with a step-wise regression based model developed in this study. FN and MARS models have higher prediction precision with R2 values of 0.88 and 0.90 respectively, whereas regression model has R2 value of 0.81. Sensitivity analysis carried out to assess relative importance of model inputs reported that, effective width of outermost lane, traffic volume and on-street parking activities are by far the most important variables those contributed 38.3% and 20.8%, 21.8% and 20.5%, 12.7% and 17.0% respectively in FN and MARS models building. It was observed that around 95% of studied segments are offering average or inferior service quality to bicyclists. Hence service qualities of these facilities should be timely augmented for the betterment of bicycle users.
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With one-fifth of the world's total population, China's prevention and control of cardiovascular disease (CVD) may affect the success of worldwide efforts to achieve sustainable CVD reduction. Understanding China's current cardiovascular epidemic requires awareness of the economic development in the past decades. The rapid economic transformations (industrialization, marketization, urbanization, globalization, and informationalization) contributed to the aging demography, unhealthy lifestyles, and environmental changes. The latter have predisposed to increasing cardiovascular risk factors and the CVD pandemic. Rising CVD rates have had a major economic impact, which has challenged the healthcare system and the whole society. With recognition of the importance of health, initial political steps and national actions have been taken to address the CVD epidemic. Looking to the future, we recommend that 4 priorities should be taken: pursue multisectorial government and nongovernment strategies targeting the underlying causes of CVD (the whole-of-government and whole-of-society policy); give priority to prevention; reform the healthcare system to fit the nature of noncommunicable diseases; and conduct research for evidence-based, low-cost, simple, sustainable, and scalable interventions. By pursuing the 4 priorities, the pandemic of CVD and other major noncommunicable diseases in China will be reversed and the global sustainable development goal achieved.
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sec> Objective To examine the relationship between the numbers of people walking or bicycling and the frequency of collisions between motorists and walkers or bicyclists. The common wisdom holds that the number of collisions varies directly with the amount of walking and bicycling. However, three published analyses of collision rates at specific intersections found a non-linear relationship, such that collisions rates declined with increases in the numbers of people walking or bicycling. Data This paper uses five additional data sets (three population level and two time series) to compare the amount of walking or bicycling and the injuries incurring in collisions with motor vehicles. Results The likelihood that a given person walking or bicycling will be struck by a motorist varies inversely with the amount of walking or bicycling. This pattern is consistent across communities of varying size, from specific intersections to cities and countries, and across time periods. Discussion This result is unexpected. Since it is unlikely that the people walking and bicycling become more cautious if their numbers are larger, it indicates that the behavior of motorists controls the likelihood of collisions with people walking and bicycling. It appears that motorists adjust their behavior in the presence of people walking and bicycling. There is an urgent need for further exploration of the human factors controlling motorist behavior in the presence of people walking and bicycling. Conclusion A motorist is less likely to collide with a person walking and bicycling if more people walk or bicycle. Policies that increase the numbers of people walking and bicycling appear to be an effective route to improving the safety of people walking and bicycling. </sec
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Cycling has consistently been safer in the Netherlands than the UK. Nevertheless, safety has improved in both countries over time. Between 1980 and 2011, the cyclists' fatality rate declined by 67% in the Netherlands and 57% in the UK. Per capita bicycle use was sustained in the Netherlands throughout the post-World War Two era, peaking in the early 1960s and only declining for a decade before recovering. In contrast, UK bicycle use peaked in 1952 and declined permanently. The survival of popular bicycling in the Netherlands through the 1950s and 1960s was fundamental to the development of effective bicycling policies after the 1970s. The Dutch network of cycle tracks and routes increased from 9,000. km in the mid 1970s to approximately 29,000. km currently. The annual distance cycled per capita increased by 30% in the ten years to 1988, but has not materially increased since then. In the UK, cycling has a long heritage as a marginalised form of travel. This continues to hinder efforts to achieve a national cycling revival. Nevertheless, cycling on quiet urban and rural roads in the UK incurs much lower risks than the national average fatality rate would suggest. Networks enabling cyclists to avoid main roads, especially rural A-roads, could provide safety levels comparable to the Netherlands and Denmark. There are towns in the UK with segregated cycling networks, but few cyclists. This is because a range of measures must be invoked to achieve large modal shifts to cycling. Local authority support is a critical factor.
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The numbers of older adults are growing rapidly globally with the rate of increase larger in less developed countries. As life expectancies increase around the world, it is a priority to determine if more of the extra years being added are healthy years or years that are likely to be spent in poor health. The Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) of the World Health Organisation (WHO) (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/sage) is a longitudinal nationally representative household survey that includes respondents 50 years and older with a smaller, comparative cohort of adults aged 18-49 years in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa with a sample size of over 40,000 respondents selected using a multi-stage cluster design. Additionally, eight health and demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) in Bangladesh, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania and Viet Nam with an additional combined sample size of over 45,000 respondents are a part of SAGE. The Collaborative Research on Ageing in Europe (COURAGE) project has also used SAGE methods and instruments to collect data in Finland, Poland and Spain. The objective of SAGE is to improve the empirical understanding of the health and well-being of older adults through provision of reliable, valid and cross-nationally comparable data over time on key outcomes and determinants. Wave 0 was completed in 2004 with Wave 1 finalised in 2010. Wave 2 of SAGE is planned for later in 2013 and Wave 3 in 2015. The biomarker component of SAGE includes performance tests and the collection of dried blood spots in Wave 1. Dried Blood Spot (DBS) samples have been collected from approximately 40,000 respondents and stored. The assays for haemoglobin, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), Epstein Barr Virus (EBV) and HIV are being carried out initially with additional assays planned for the future. Future waves of SAGE will consider the collection of DNA samples. First results from SAGE reveal significant declines in health over the life span with female and poorer respondents being in worse health at all ages. Chronic health conditions are extremely prevalent. Risk factors such as tobacco use, inadequate physical activity, obesity and hypertension are all very common. Poor health is associated with declining subjective well-being and shrinking social networks. This suggests that there is little evidence of healthy ageing in these populations and that a concerted response will be required from health systems to address the needs of this rapidly growing segment of the population.
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Background: Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. Methods: We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. Findings: Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. Interpretation: Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Background: Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. Methods: We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings: In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. Conclusions: Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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