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Journal of Organizational Change Management
The complexity of wicked problems in large scale change
Sandra Waddock Greta M. Meszoely Steve Waddell Domenico Dentoni
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Sandra Waddock Greta M. Meszoely Steve Waddell Domenico Dentoni , (2015),"The complexity of
wicked problems in large scale change", Journal of Organizational Change Management, Vol. 28 Iss
6 pp. 993 - 1012
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The complexity of wicked
problems in large scale change
Sandra Waddock
Carroll School of Management, Boston College, Chestnut Hill,
Massachusetts, USA
Greta M. Meszoely
Center for Business Complexity and Global Leadership, Sawyer School of
Management, Suffolk University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Steve Waddell
Networking Action, Boston, Massachusetts, USA, and
Domenico Dentoni
Department of Social Sciences,
Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Abstract
Purpose –The purpose of this paper is to extend and elaborate the notion of successful organizational
change to incorporate the concept of large system change (LSC), by developing a framework that
brings together complexity and wicked problems theories to understand how individual organizations
and change agents can better influence LSC.
Design/methodology/approach –This conceptual paper integrates wicked problems and
complexity theories to understand and cope with large system initiatives from the perspective of
change agents in organizations, and uses the case of the electricity system as an illustrative example
for these concepts.
Findings –The paper provides implications for LSC and action steps for change agents in
organizations, arguing that by understanding change initiatives through the lenses of complexity and
wicked problems, change agents are likely to be more effective.
Research limitations/implications –The integration of complexity science and wicked problems
underpins the development of a comprehensive framework for creating effective LSC solutions,
however, these ideas still need to be grounded in practice and empirical research.
Practical implications –Using these ideas, change agents inorganizations can enhance their influence
and use the power of system dynamics to support positive action for sustainable change. This paper
provides a foundation to help think through the cross-sectoral, inter-organizational, and change dynamics
involved in LSC efforts needed to bring about a more sustainable, secure, and equitable world for all.
Social implications –The world greatly needs system change; however, there is limited theory on
effective LSC. This paper hopes to contribute to understanding the ways in which the difficulties of
such change can be harnessed to move in positive directions with minimal disruption and greatest
effectiveness.
Originality/value –Theories of change management that position the organization in the context of a
broader system and define its role in creating change do not yet articulate the nature of the problems
at hand in relation to the large systems where they are embedded. This paper builds upon wicked
problems and complexity theories to shed light on the role of change agents and organizations in
effective transformational change.
Keywords Complexity, Wicked problems, Change agents, Adaptive systems, Large-scale change,
System change
Paper type Conceptual paper Journal of Organizational Change
Management
Vol. 28 No. 6, 2015
pp. 993-1012
© Emerald Group Publishing Limited
0953-4814
DOI 10.1108/JOCM-08-2014-0146
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:
www.emeraldinsight.com/0953-4814.htm
The research on the electricity system referenced in this paper is supported financially by the
ENEL Foundation’s project: Towards a New Sustainable Business Model for Energy Companies.
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Introduction
The ability to adapt and change effectively relative to market conditions is central to
management theory. Much organizational change management was inspired by
dramatic systemic shifts that threatened the markets on which organizations
depended, beginning with the great depression. There has been a significant
evolution of change management from augmenting processes in hierarchical
organizations to react to change, to decentralizing organizations with a focus on
flexibility to support agility and responsiveness, as well as to ways in which
organizations can cope with ecological and societal exigencies now facing the planet.
We are, however, only beginning to appreciate change management in the context
of broader systemic changes. In an era of unprecedented change where our human
and technological systems have become increasingly interconnected and transformed
at an unparalleled rate, and where human vulnerabilities to ecological and planetary
dynamics are becoming more obvious, the notion of successful organizational change
must be reassessed to incorporate the need for significant and simultaneous change
in multiple institutions and organizations in the direction of greater sustainability
and social justice.
Flexibility and agility have become a corner stone of management theory in the
twenty-first century in order to respond effectively to opportunity while mitigating
risk relative to changing market conditions. This approach inherently frames
organizations in a set of larger industrial, competitive, and increasingly social and
ecological contexts. Realizing a sustainable, flourishing future for humanity
and organizations of tomorrow requires worldwide change in social, political, and
economic systems (e.g. Daly et al., 1989; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), 2007; Turner, 2008; McKibben, 2011; Randers, 2012; Worldwatch, 2013).
Organizations today are not contained by their institutional or even industrial
boundaries, but rather are an integral part of an increasingly interconnected dynamic
system of actors and institutions that together support positive or negative change in
the short and long term. Organizations must engage in active change initiatives that
support a flourishing future at both an organizational and society level for their
own self-interested success while positively influencing a healthy social, political, and
natural environment within which it not only exists but can flourish. Most
importantly, building a more promising future for societies and organizations
requires challenging contemporary understanding of organizations as agents of
change in the context of broad, complex, evolving systems.
To support this development, this paper: first, elaborates the framework of
organizational change to extend the traditional boundaries of organizational change to
include large system change (LSC) requiring multi-sector interventions; integrates,
synthesizes, and describes different dimensions of complex adaptive systems (CAS)
and wicked problems from various strands of literature as they apply to LSC; and
provides a conceptual understanding of the integration of CAS, wicked problems, and
systems change. Ultimately, we provide change agents wherever they might be with
actionable recommendations to assess their own understanding of the systems that
require change and how these are linked to wicked problems and CAS so they
can influence more positive, sustainable, LSC. Change agents, from the point of view of
CAS, are actors who can be found anywhere within the large system undergoing
change, who are attempting to move an organization or institution in a different
direction than it is currently moving, whether through policy, personnel, resource,
technological, financial, or other means.
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A LSC perspective
In this paper we are interested in movement of societal institutions and organizations
toward sustainability as the core of what we mean by LSC. As we use the term, LSC
has two dimensions. One is that it is “large”in the commonly understood sense:
it involves large geographies (e.g. national, regional, and global), multiple institutions,
and large numbers of people and resources. The other dimension involves the
transformation or fundamental reframing of human systems. LSC involves multiple
interrelated and connected organizations, institutions, norms, and behaviors at
individual, organizational, societal, and global levels. We use the term “system”to
mean interacting and connected or interdependent entities that comprise a complex
network producing an outcome (Bertalanffy, 1968). Koestler (1968) noted that such
entities are organized as holons (wholes consisting of other wholes as their parts).
Currently the “system”takenasawholeisproducingunsustainableoutcomesand
many observers suggest the need for transformation. Because the system, as we will
explore below, is a CAS fraught with wicked problems, however, effecting change in a
desired direction is difficult at best. Our framework asks how complexity and wicked
problems theories can enhance understanding of how to bring about change in the
midst of such complexity.
LSC is distinguished from incremental and reform change as described in Table I.
Incremental change asks “How can we do more of what we have been doing?”and reform
asks “What shall we create?”LSC asks the more fundamental question, “What is our core
purpose and how do we make sense of the situation?”Incremental change and reform can
take place within the current logics (economic-political-social) that are producing
unsustainable outcomes. LSC as we have defined it involves transformation, that is,
a shifting of the very foundations of some institutions and their interrelationships.
A common pathway to transformation arises from experiments and actions of
Type of
change Incremental Reform Transformation
Core
questions
How can we do more of the
same?
Are we doing things right?
What rules shall we create?
Who should do what?
What are the rewards?
How do I make sense of
this?
What is the purpose?
How do we know what is
best?
Purpose To improve performance To understand and change
the system and its parts
To innovate and create
previously unimagined
possibilities
Power and
relationships
Confirms existing rules.
Preserves the established
power structure and
relationships among actors
in the system
Opens rules to revision.
Suspends established
power relationships;
promotes authentic
interactions; creates a space
for genuine reform of the
system
Opens issue to creation of
new ways of thinking and
action. Promotes
transformation of
relationships with whole-
system awareness and
identity; promotes
examining deep structures
that sustain the system
Action
frames
Mediation Negotiations Visioning
Source: Adapted from Waddell (2011)
Table I.
Types of change
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incremental change that integrates the new understanding of reality (e.g. the importance
of sustainability) and core purpose (in this case, sustainability). Support for these to
become dominant new institutional framings requires fundamental reform of existing
institutions and their core purposes, probably over time. LSC engages the dynamics and
behavioral mechanisms of the complex network as a whole to define relevant issues,
drive initiatives, and support continuous innovation for transformational change by
leveraging the system and its internal dynamics in balance with its environment.
One distinctive quality of transformation is that it involves redefinition of power and
power structures within the transforming system. Incremental change operates within
the current logic, reinforcing existing rules and relationships. For example,
incrementalism is associated with companies “rolling-out”new products, services,
or delivery channels. Reform allows for the revision of rules, such as with regulatory
reform, but does so within current power structures, as occurred after the banking crisis
when there was no real change in power structures, though some rules changed.
In contrast, LSC aims for new ways of thinking, acting, and relating with different
assumptions such as the imperative for sustainability. LSC’s transformational challenge
involves changing the logic of organizations, their values, and decision-making
processes. Therefore, organization change agents are part of LSC simply as a result of the
operating and enabling environments of their organizations. The question is whether
they want to be reactive or pro-active in navigating the scale of change.
Wicked problems, complex systems, and institutions
Toward the ends described above, we bring two key theoretical lenses to the
understanding of LSC: complexity science (e.g. Kauffman, 1995; Lissack and Roos, 1999;
Nicolis and Prigogine, 1989; Lissack and Letiche, 2002; Capra, 2006; Schneider and
Somers, 2006; Suteanu, 2005; Walby, 2007) with its related emphasis on chaos theory
(Gleick, 1988; Prigogine and Stengers, 1984); and the concept of wicked problems
(Batie, 2008; Conklin 2005; Dentoni and Bitzer, 2013; Levin et al., 2012; Rittel and
Webber, 1973). To these lenses we add the implications for institutions, understood
as organizations operating within a given CAS, or problem domain of interest. There is
extensive literature on complexity and wicked problems, but limited efforts to link the
sets of ideas in thinking about their implications for systems.
CAS of interest here are social systems that are diverse, nonlinear, consisting of
multiple interactive, interdependent, and interconnected sub-elements. They are adaptive
and self-organizing, tending toward ever-greater complexity operating at the “edge of
chaos,”and therefore in a constant state of innovation and dynamic equilibrium
(Kauffman, 1995; Lissack and Roos, 1999; Nicolis and Prigogine, 1989; Lissack and
Letiche, 2002; Capra, 2006; Schneider and Somers, 2006; Suteanu, 2005; Walby, 2007).
Pushed too far, they can cross-over that edge of chaos into a major state change or
even what Diamond called collapse (e.g. Prigogine and Stengers, 1984; Kauffman, 1995;
Diamond, 2005). Social CAS are constituted by individuals, institutions, and other
organized entities that interactively influence each other and are simultaneously shaped
and influenced by the wicked problems or issues within the system.
Wicked problems are poorly formulated, boundary-spanning, ill-structured issues
with numerous stakeholders who bring different perspectives to the definitions and
potential resolution of the issue or problem. In wicked problems each issue can be seen as
a symptom of others, each issue is unique, no definitive solutions are possible, and there
is no “stopping rule”that determines the problem’s end or is likely to satisfy all the
stakeholders (e.g. Rittel and Webber, 1973; Batie, 2008; Weber and Khademian, 2008;
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Dentoni et al., 2012). From a change perspective, wicked problems are defined by
dynamic, interconnected issues that influence and are influenced by complex systems in
which institutions, such as nations, oil companies, and utilities, are important
actors. Wicked problems are what Ackoff (1974) called messes and Trist (1983) labeled
meta-problems.
Wicked problems and CAS have many overlapping and similar characteristics. Both
need to be considered holistically, are dynamically complex, with emergent, interactive,
and co-evolutionary properties, where the outcomes of changes can be seen in patterns,
and/or change in the nature of the problem(s), but they are ultimately not predictable.
When we discuss wicked problems, we are by definition interested in the issues and
problems within CAS that impact institutional changes on a local to global level, but are
influenced simultaneously by the network of institutional dynamics that exists
among organizational and related entities. Such CAS tend to exist in what Emery and
Trist (1965), in their classic paper on organizational environments called turbulent
fields, where there is a high degree of interactivity, interconnectedness, and
interdependence among the various entities that comprise the field.
Institutions, for the purpose of this paper, include organizations in different sectors,
including businesses, governments, and NGOs to accomplish various ends that are
somehow related, e.g., within a given geographic or other type of context. The term also
encompasses families, or customs, relationships, memes, or norms that help to shape and
define a community or complex system (see, e.g. Scott, 1987, 2008, for syntheses of
the institutional theory literature). Though we wish to focus predominantly on the
organizations of different types that are embedded in a relevant field or scope of interest
and interact with each other around wicked problems, we recognize that rules, memes,
and logics that constitute institutions and any given institutional infrastructure (Scott,
2008) are also relevant in change situations. Institutions thus are dynamic organizations
with their associated memes and rules that emerge and evolve relative to specific needs,
interests, actions by various change agents, and for the ultimate goal of survival.
LSC in a CAS, with its embedded institutions (organizations and various memes)
and wicked problems, can be conceived as a double helix. Like the DNA molecule, LSC
in a CAS comprises a whole consisting of two distinct yet inextricably intertwined,
co-evolving, systems: a production system of institutions (broadly defined) and a
change system. The production system represents the institutions that structure the
system, produce its outputs or outcomes, and contain and structure its institutions
and organizations. For the electricity system, which will be used as an example below,
the production system includes utilities, transmission and distribution companies,
suppliers of fuels, government regulators and investors. Each of these institutions acts
relative to its own motivations and local knowledge of the broader system and in
response to its understanding of the production system, its goals and needs. The
change system comprises all those efforts to restructure and redirect the production
system as various change agents contend with various wicked problems.
Complexity theory in the context of wicked problems
LSC is extraordinarily difficult to deal with, understand, or plan because it includes
both wicked problems and CAS –which themselves have similar characteristics related
to their inherent complexity and chaotic properties.
We use as an illustrative example the case of the global change system for electricity,
as distinct from other geographic levels. Included were entities focussed on integrating
sustainability concerns (working to achieve sustainability energy for all’s goals) into the
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electricity production system, and meeting the following criteria: they are
multi-organizational initiatives (networks), since even the largest of traditional
organizations would have only modest impact on the global, including
intergovernmental organizations like the World Bank, and the UN and its agencies
which are government networks; and they have a global operation, defined as being active
on at least two continents. This work was undertaken by the GOLDEN for Sustainability
Energy Ecosystem Lab to address questions about how to enhance coherence and
convergence in large complex change systems.
Table II lays out the intersections of wicked problems and CAS as they affect LSC
processes. As the sources at the bottom of the table indicate, we have drawn
extensively from a wide range of authors’overlapping ideas to draw out these
implications and we refer the reader to their original sources for specifics on complexity
science, chaos theory, and wicked problems. Below we explain the overlaps between
complexity and wicked problems theories, and in the section that follows we illustrate
these dynamics with change initiatives within the electricity system.
Problem definition and boundaries
Wicked problems are characterized by uniqueness, complexity, and the interactive
dynamism of issues, making each one unique and definitive problem definition
impossible, in part because each stakeholder brings different perspectives to the
problem at hand. Defining a CAS can appear reasonably clear and with some capacity
to determine the definition possible, however, boundaries are not static, and also tend to
be very permeable. So, as with wicked problems, it is difficult to determine exactly
where one begins and ends. In these contexts, organizational definitions appear quite
defined, albeit changeable, and not always completely determinate.
Holistic
Both wicked problems and CAS need to be viewed holistically rather than in piecemeal
or fragmented ways because their various components are interconnected,
interdependent, and interrelated. In CAS the whole is considered to be more than
simply the sum of its parts and much the same could be said of wicked problems, since
change efforts often try to tackle only one aspect of a wicked problem, interconnections
among various elements make the problem unresolvable unless tackled holistically.
Institutions as organizations, generally, are seen to have specific institutional domains,
roles, and activities that are, at least in theory, separable from those of other
institutions, but the boundaries of these as they evolve continue to change relative to
internal and external needs and dynamics.
Dynamics
Wicked problems and CAS are both characterized by non-linear, co-evolving, and
emergent dynamics that are inherently unpredictable. These dynamics adapt to different
forces and pressures, and are subject to sudden state changes, including what Diamond
(2005) calls collapse, which is a well-described implication of current electricity system
emissions in the future if they are not curtailed. Both wicked problems and CAS have
numerous institutions (organizations and actors, along with the “glue”or set of memes
that structures them) acting both within the production and change systems that
influence developments and patterns that emerge as a result of co-evolution whereby the
systems innovate through creative destruction (Schumpeter, 1962). Though possible,
co-evolution can be more difficult in a wicked problems context because of the lack of
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definitional boundaries and dynamism. This definitional constraint is a core
investigation of transition literature with respect to electricity (Bauknecht and Cames,
2009; Praetorius et al., 2008). Still, when one actor does something to effect change that
shift influences other actors to change (or resist change) and ultimately those changes
Property Wicked problems Complex adaptive systems (CAS)
Problem
definition and
boundaries
Each issue/problem conceived as symptom of
others. They are interactive, complexly
related, and dynamic. Each is unique and no
definitive definition is possible. No definitive
boundaries
System definition can appear
reasonably clear, and system
definition can be determined in
physical CAS, while social systems
share no definitive boundaries.
Permeable boundaries at multiple
levels and across institutions
Holistic Need to be dealt with holistically because
piecemeal solutions do not work, because of
interconnectedness, interrelatedness, and
interdependence of elements
Need to be understood holistically,
since the whole is different from the
(sum of ) parts, and all parts are
interdependent, interconnected, and
interrelated
Dynamics Non-linear, cause-effect relationships difficult
to determine. Emergence and co-evolution are
characteristic. Highly interactive and
complex. Can seem unorganized, though
fractal qualities can be present, co-evolution is
difficult because of dynamism and lack of
definitional boundaries though possible
Non-linear, cause-effect relationships
difficult to determine. Emergence,
adaptation, and co-evolution are
characteristic. Greater complexity
operating at the “edge of chaos.”
Spontaneously self-organizing
systems (sometimes), process of
creative destruction, emerging from
interaction, and interdependence of
stakeholders, with layers sometimes
having fractal qualities
Resolution/
outcomes
No definitive (enumerable or well-described)
resolution possible as all stakeholders bring
different perspectives. There is no “stopping
rule”
Aggregation of actions can result in
unpredictable (chaos-induced) state
changes or local impacts. No
definitive resolution or end point
unless state change occurs
Predictability
and patterning
Patterns somewhat predictable, not specifics
(fractal-like quality possible), and on the whole
limits on predictability. May have elements of
chaotic systems with “strange attractors”
defining points of interest, intervention in
interrelated, interdependent, interactive
difficult
Path dependent, but not predictable,
with fractal-like patterns potentially
visible. “Strange attractors”help
define patterns. Intrinsic limits on
predictability because of interrelated,
interdependent, and interactive
elements supporting behaviors that
may be symptoms of others
Path dependent Small and large changes bring about different,
largely unpredictable system dynamics,
leaving “traces,”with “no right to be wrong,”
and no ultimate correct answer. Every
solution has irreversible consequences and is
a one-shot operation
Change results in unique and
irreversible solutions, depending on
starting point. Small changes can
have large effects (butterfly effect).
Collapse can be triggered if system is
pushed over the “edge of chaos”
Sources: Rittel and Webber (1973), Prigogine and Stengers (1984), Gleick (1989), Nicolis and Prigogine
(1989), Stacey (1991), Kauffman (1995), Stacey (1995), Anderson (1999), Lissack and Roos (1999),
McKelvey (1999), Manson (2001), Lissack and Letiche (2002), Capra (2005), Suteanu (2005), Conklin
(2005), Schneider and Somers (2006), Walby (2007), Batie (2008), Weber Khademian (2008), Urry (2005),
and Dentoni and Bitzer (2013)
Table II.
Properties of wicked
problems, complex
systems, and
institutions
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come back around to influence the original actor in a co-evolutionary pattern of
interaction and engagement. Within the CAS, organizations as institutions can be
highly dynamic, interactive, and willing to engage in co-evolutionary change –or rigid,
bureaucratized, relatively stable, and resistant to change (at least on the surface). For
any given CAS or wicked problem, there can be many organizations taking different
actions that influence the dynamics in interactive and complex ways that generate
unpredictable outcomes.
Resolution and outcomes
One of the defining characteristics of wicked problems and CAS is that no definitive
solution is possible because different stakeholder bring different perspectives to the
problem. Further, because of both the complexity of wicked problems and their
dynamism, there is no “stopping rule”that determines when the problem has been
resolved to satisfy the varied stakeholders. In CAS, aggregation of different actions can
sometimes result in unpredictable state changes or local impacts, because the system is
characterized by chaos in the mathematical use of that term.
Predictability and patterning
Wicked problems and CAS both have characteristics of chaotic systems –with
predictability of outcomes of actions not possible, but with patterns of action that
emerge to create system dynamics. Oil prices go up and down, policy waxes and wanes,
causing the move to sustainable fuels to cycle …but there is an inexorable move to
more sustainable fuels. Both can also experience what are called strange attractors in
physics, i.e., elements that create defining points of interest, or leverage points
for change. Such a strange attractor in a CAS or wicked problems context could be
a particular leader, organization, or institution (including a vision, meme, or set of ideas)
that attracts others to it. For example, resources, ideas, memes, or other ways of
engaging across organizational or sector boundaries can draw attention and create an
impetus for change.
Multiple stakeholders interacting
Different stakeholders in system change may not (fully) agree on what is proposed or
acted upon, how change should be approached, or even what the appropriate goals
for change might be. At the same time, as Ackoff (1974) noted, bringing together the
relevant stakeholders to a given problem, in many cases including stakeholders from
multiple sectors, is crucial to any potential for what we can call a good enough solution
(Conklin, 2005; Waddock, 2013) where right answers or scientific certainty are unlikely
(Batie, 2008; Peterson, 1989).
Path dependence
Path dependence is apparent in both CAS and wicked problems. In wicked problems,
small and large changes, though unpredictable in their specific outcomes, shift the
systems’dynamics, leaving “traces,”with “no right to be wrong,”and no ultimately
correct answer. Every solution has irreversible consequences –and therefore, there is
no way to return to the original state. Much the same is true of CAS, where small initial
actions can have potentially large impacts, a process known as the butterfly effect.
Collapse can be triggered by sudden state changes when what is called the edge of
chaos is reached.
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An illustrative example: the electricity system
In the electricity system introduced briefly above, change agents in organizations are
struggling to find coherence in their joint efforts as they work to address local concerns
given the complexity of the systems and the “wicked”nature of the problems at hand.
By reflecting conceptually on the nature of CAS and wicked problems, we can begin to
see how understanding the system as both wicked and complex can help provide
actionable suggestions for change agents.
Problem definition and boundaries
In the electricity system, the wicked problems involve determining what sources of energy
are appropriate in a context of climate change and which elements of the existing system
need to change so that the climate change and sustainability crises are not made worse.
The CAS consists of the panoply of different elements that constitute electricity production
today –and that are subject to current demands and issues of resiliency along with change
inthefutureasneweffortstoswitchtorenewable or non-fossil-fueled-based sources of
energy are engaged. It would appear that it is relatively easy to define the electricity
system. However, the system is comprised of companies, agencies, fuel and equipment
suppliers, customers, and numerous others so that where the system begins and ends is not
so readily determined; some actors have multiple roles in the context of unique social,
political, technological, and natural dynamics at various levels of the system. Different
sources of energy to produce electricity create permeable and shifting barriers and have
differential impacts on the natural environment, depending on any number of factors.
Holistic: interrelated problems, systems, and institutions
Electricity as a system needs to be viewed holistically because its different elements are
connected to each other as well as to economic development, the environment, and
health, among other issues. The electricity system, consisting of electricity generation-
transmission-distribution-consumption, also illustrates the distinction between LSC
and other types of change. Incremental change involves activities to extend or curtail
this current system with current business models, policies, and technology such as
providing greater amounts of electricity to current users or adding previously
unserviced users through new or expanded distribution channels.
Reform occurred when the electricity system, which was usually unitary, was broken
up through public policy change into the constituent parts in most of the USA with
different businesses for generation, transmission, and distribution. This segmented parts
of the traditional business model, regulatory approach, and technology infrastructure.
In contrast, the electricity system is now tackling transformation or LSC with integration
of sustainability into its logic. Transformation requires exploration and development of
still unknown business models that involve fundamentally different technologies that are
changing the power and relationships between the “parts”of the system in basic ways.
A holistic approach is needed, for example, with the arising of “prosumers”where
consumers can be net energy producers through solar, wind, and other technologies
(Insights, 2014), because all elements of the system will be affected in unknown ways by
such shifts.
Dynamics
The dynamics of CAS are clear within the electricity system, which has many
interacting parts that become less predictable than when traditional technology was
used, especially in the context of climate change. Transformation is about developing
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resilience and its adaptive ability, in the face of traditionally inflexible, long-term
investments in electrical power plants, which are now being supplemented by the
distributed and less predictable prosumer model noted above. The threat of collapse is
treated by actors within the system as a real possibility, on the one hand from climate
change and on the other from the potential for system collapse if sustainability is
pushed too far, too fast. For example, at 40 percent renewable energy on its grid,
Denmark is far in advance of any other country for renewables. While pushing for
continued progress, Denmark is going where no country has gone before. One big
worry is that the result of the transformation will be brownouts (i.e. temporary
reductions or restrictions on electricity availability) (Gillis, 2014). So a key question is:
how can the electricity system be changed from a complex, poorly adaptive system to a
highly adaptive complex system in the face of all the unknowns?
Resolution and outcomes
The problems embedded in complex electricity systems are wicked in nature. Climate
change issues associated with the electricity system, for example, are associated with
increasingly severe implications that can produce collapse, rather than well-defined
ones. Indeed, climate change has been called a “super wicked”problem (Levin et al.,
2012), because of the many interacting and interconnected elements that are involved.
There is continual debate about current effort for change, vs future benefit. The
economic and climate impacts of the electricity system, particularly changing the
electricity system from its current coal-basis to renewable energy sources, demands
both holistic consideration and understanding of the dynamic interactions that result
from changing any given element of the system, but it will very likely never be quite
clear when the system itself has been fully transformed and it is likely that no outcomes
will satisfy all the key stakeholders, some of which want to maintain centralized
structures, for example, while others will prefer decentralized, distributed power
sources, and distribution.
Predictability and patterning
In electricity, the need for new patterns expresses itself as the need to develop a new
business models and sources of energy for utilities, which involves new actors and new
roles, while, coal producers and other traditional energy suppliers resist change,
making it difficult to predict what is likely to happen. Embedded in the electricity
system, and dealing with the described wicked problems, a number of institutions
undertake change initiatives both in isolation and in joint initiatives. These include
companies, governmental energy agencies, and civic organizations concerned about
the natural environment and energy production. In the electricity arena, there are
thousands of initiatives working on various aspects and from various perspectives,
as noted above, some of which are new and dynamic, offering nontraditional sources of
energy production or newer technologies, while other stalwarts are embedded in the
existing system and highly resistant to any significant changes.
Multiple stakeholders interacting
In electricity, one big lesson is that there is need for a big shift from the one big utility-
generator fits all model, to one that is highly varied depending on context and resources
(wind, sun, biomass, etc.), that, use numerous sources of local production such as
wind energy or even consumer-based production of energy from solar panels feeding
excess energy into the system, not all of which can readily be predicted. Different
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stakeholders in the electricity sector bring considerably varied views to thinking about
what needs to be done, ranging from business as usual to all non-fossil-fueled production,
with any number of positions in between. Environmental impact of electricity systems is
never going to end, and how electricity is produced will continue to be contested terrain for
the foreseeable future. Indeed, in both contexts, it is likely that when some stakeholders are
satisfied with a path or outcome, others may well be unsatisfied. Because of this system
complexity in electricity production, we cannot predict with certainty what outcomes,
for example, numerous sources of local production, will bring to the entire system.
Path dependence
Thousands of change initiatives aim to integrate sustainability into the electricity system
including intergovernmental (e.g. the Kyoto Process, Sustainable Energy for All),
technological such as the MIT Energy Initiative, business such as the World Business
Council for Sustainable Development’s (WBCSD) Electricity Utilities Project, NGOs such
as the Electricity Governance Initiative, and multi-stakeholder such as the Carbon
Disclosure Project. To a significant extent, the same institutions and actors comprise the
production and change systems (e.g. WBCSD). Various agents from the production
system participate in change initiatives that can be differentiated by their overt efforts to
change the broader CAS or tackle a wicked problem. The chances of complete agreement
in such a context are slim. However, once decisions have been made (e.g. to move to the
prosumer model), they create pathways that are not readily (or feasibly) reversed.
Path dependence can also be seen in the search for holy grails, such as hydrogen
energy providing low-cost clean electricity that would cause massive disruption of
traditional fuel providers. Path dependency also produces outcomes that may or may
not be desired. For instance, the building of a coal-powered energy production plant has
long-term consequences for a shift to renewable sources because of the sunk costs,
embedded expertise, and resource usage patterns that are not readily shifted once the
initial decision to invest in coal power has been made. Similarly, if the decision is made
to invest in renewables, then momentum is established in that direction with the result
that it is harder to shift back to non-renewables.
Implications for LSC
Ackoff (1974) in his seminal discussion of systems argued that single institutions
cannot successfully tackle LSC (messes) independently. Yet institutions as part of a
broader system, acting (seemingly) independently are in a state of constant dynamic
exchange with the broader CAS. They can potentially support co-evolutionary change
when dealing with wicked problems, or they can thwart it if their efforts move in the
opposite desired direction. Complexity and wicked problems theories support this idea,
because system change requires changes in institutions, including organizations with
their rules and memes and the interstices or spaces between organizations that
constitute a broader whole. Organizations that are able to appreciate their location
in a broader system are more likely to engage in networks and collaborations of
organizations as in the case of the electricity network: creating resources and
competencies beyond those of a single organization are required (Waddell, 2005). Below
we discuss the implications of CAS and wicked problems for LSC.
Understanding system dynamics
CAS and wicked problems are complex, dynamic, interdependent, emergent and
co-evolving. They have no predetermined or predictable outcomes from efforts to
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change systems, and each system is unique. Therefore, no established change methods
or approaches are likely to work consistently. Identifying leverage points for change
(Senge, 1990) or nudges (Thaler, 2009), often through shifting vision, values, and other
memes (which, for shorthand, are simply cultural expressions that shape how things
are perceived), that will move the system in the hoped for direction at various levels, is
critical for creating momentum for LSC. Such nudges or shifts need to be determined by
engaging a critical mass of the multiple stakeholders across whatever boundaries exist
within the relevant system (Yarime et al., 2012), or by shifting the memes, regulations
(ground rules), and values that operate within a system of interest. In the electricity
arena, transition theorists have pointed to policy and technological innovations
creating disturbances for emergence of new approaches to issues like electricity, that
aim to create a new regime of values and operating principles (Geels, 2004; Geels and
Schot, 2007; Markard and Truffer, 2008).
Harness complexity, do not simplify it
Orchestrated LSC is impossible, but guiding nudges are. Systems innovate and adapt
to local and system conditions, co-evolving in unpredictable ways in spite of centralized
planning. (Co)-evolution and emergence of new initiatives, visions, and memes will
likely co-exist among the different entities involved, creating wholly new sets of
relationships and outcomes that cannot be predicted in advance. Organizations that are
able to look outward to effect change will often catalyze or engage initiatives to support
internal and external change. Engagement at this level is often looked at as positive.
Complexity, and wickedness contribute to a system’s resilience and ability to adapt and
change, meaning that no single entity or institution is sufficiently powerful to take the
entire system down single-handedly. LSC initiatives must harness complexity (Axelrod
and Cohen, 2001) rather than simplify or control it to effectively address wicked
problems embedded in the CAS. In the electricity field the general trend is toward
decentralized systems of generation, distribution, and transmission, but the exact
configurations of new business models is still unclear and requires experimentation
driven by local contexts such as the potential for wind and solar energy. All of this has
led to an emphasis on the development of much more resilient and adaptable strategies
that can more easily incorporate and respond to technologies as they emerge
(Praetorius et al., 2008).
Seek ways of creating coherence
From a complexity perspective, LSC faces a number of fundamental hurdles. Social and
biological systems are by nature CAS. Social problems are, mostly, by nature wicked.
These systems are highly non-linear and evolve on many dimensions, levels, and
domains simultaneously (or sequentially). Any attempts to change the system must
address the underlying mechanisms that support change along with controls that keep
the system in check. For electricity, like many change challenges, this leads to a
focus on policy, finance, technology, consumers, and service provision (Waddell, 2014).
If we accept the basic tenets of CAS that also apply to wicked problems, (including
self-organization, adaptation, and change relative to internal and external conditions to
maintain a state of dynamic equilibrium, co-evolution, non-predictability), non-linearity,
lack of controls by a centralized authority, agents acting independently relative to
localized knowledge and conditions, path dependence, and unpredictability, then we
can appreciate and leverage the complex interactions of agents or institutions needed to
nudge a system to positive and sustainable change by fostering coherence in core
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memes, values, norms, and policies, for example. Importantly, organizations can also
begin to see their role in creating emergent futures rather than simply reacting to its
dynamics. Given the large number of change initiatives that have arisen in the
sustainable electricity sphere, a key question involves development of coherence and
convergence as a change system, rather than ad hoc actions of individual change
initiatives (Waddell, 2014).
Create continuous learning systems
Even if assumptions, objectives, and controls are aligned, however, complexity theory
suggests that the system often evolves before objectives are reached. Therefore wicked
problems must be addressed over time by the system itself through learning and new
initiatives over time. Sustainable solutions to wicked problems therefore must assume
that change occurs over time, sometimes considerable time, and the characteristics of
complexity will require constant innovation and continuous reflection on how to
recalibrate the structural mechanisms to achieve desired outcomes. This aspect of
complexity can require willingness to make big changes in change strategies:
enormous effort, for example, was poured into the Kyoto Process with the idea of a
global accord as a core strategy, but that had to be abandoned in favor of more
localized strategies.
Create prototypes
As a system is subjected to major change or perturbation, it needs internal mechanisms
of self-healing and resilience. These systems evolve through a gradual integration
of innovative solutions that create an intricate balance of structural robustness at
the local level that supports a resilient network in the broader CAS. This need explains
why there are so many electricity change initiatives: identifying “what works”while
building dispersed capacity to implement it allows for such integration of new solutions
within the electricity domain, with an eye toward creating a sustainable, resilient
system for the long term. Because of the complexity of the system, an outside (or inside)
change agent will not be able to keep up with all the things that break (or work) within
the system and fix (support) them. In contrast, successful LSC requires a process of
leveraging small changes that have positive outcomes into larger actions that influence
the system as a whole using networks and interlinkages productively. This involves
even more nudging toward desired ends (Thaler and Sunstein, 2008), and seeing what
directionality evolves, rather than attempts at control. Thus, we see “incremental
change”and “prototypes”based on new logics within the electricity system as core
elements of realizing transformation.
Create shared visions
As the system evolves or goes through turbulent times, some artifacts, including social
structures, memes, principles, cultures, and behaviors, emerge that ground the system
in new patterns, values, and interactions. The system then adapts around these
artifacts, making them defining elements, i.e., part of the vision of the whole system.
For example, in the electricity arena in California, Europe, and other locations carbon
markets have been established as a way to stimulate new behaviors. Whole ecosystems
become defined by these artifacts, e.g., mountains in natural ecosystems, and new
institutions that have both long term and widespread impacts in social systems. Future
change initiatives thus need to take past ones into consideration.
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Implications for LSC agents in organizations
Change agents must take all of these dynamics into account and use them to their
advantage in order to achieve any desired set of changes. It is important to note that
these are necessary but not sufficient conditions for change in a desired direction.
No change agent can survive long enough to see completion of the change because
there is no stopping rule and long-term horizons can sometimes be involved. For
example, the electricity system continues to evolve in response to the sustainability
imperative and new technologies in ways we cannot now foresee, LSC consists of
cultivating the dynamics and putting the system onto a path that leads to desired
outcomes, with the recognition that other stakeholders and change agents in the
system will have different perspectives on what outcomes and approaches are desired,
and take different actions themselves. The effects of any one initiative can be uncertain,
changing the system subtly, or more grandly.
Conceptually, we argue there are a number of things that change agents in
organizations need to consider in potential LSC initiatives. Change agents need to:
(1) Recognize the central role of memes: addressing complex wicked problems
requires transformation of memes, that is, the cultural elements that constitute
vision, values, norms, and cultural artifacts that shape a given situation,
industry, or broader culture. At the organization, institution, and systems level
these are central in creating sustainable change. For example, moving from a
world where carbon emissions are not considered a public issue –or, indeed, one
that the public even has a right to concern itself with –to one where carbon
emissions are simply unacceptable is the core meme that is changing in
response to climate change concerns. This type of LSC has happened to tobacco
and smoking. Change agents need to understand how to work with and shape
new memes that are in the desired direction and that can be readily understood
by the numerous actors (with different perspectives) whose actions can shift the
relevant context. Organizations and institutions that are out front on these
issues are more likely to preempt even unanticipated change to build on rather
than react to.
(2) Distinguish between incremental, reform, and transformational change: Table I
points out that each of these types of change requires different frameworks,
methods and actions. Incremental change requires a group of skills and
methods that are appropriate for a mediation logic: there is no question about
what to do, only minor questions about how to do it. Reform action requires
supporting a negotiations logic: defining roles and benefits to achieve an
agreed-upon set of goals. Addressing wicked complex challenges and changing
memes requires transformation skills based in a visioning logic that includes
methodologies to change how and what people see and make sense of data and
their world, identify previously unimagined goals and possibilities, and
experiment with radically innovative ways of doing and organizing. It involves
changing the memes or cultural norms that apply in a given situation
because these memes shape the logic guiding change as well as hoped for
outcomes. Applying the wrong action logic undermines ability to address
wicked problems.
(3) Prioritize learning in the context of constant change: complex wicked problems
are confusing and often experienced as overwhelming because addressing them
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involves changes beyond our experience. We can talk about a sustainable
energy system, but no one really knows what it will look and function like. Two
types of learning cycles are needed. One is the traditional experienced-based
type of learning that produce generalizations about historic or past experience.
The other arises from experiments, e.g., prototyping what a sustainable energy
system –or components of it –could be. Prototyping essentially means
articulating the visioning and transformation logics that provide the core
impetus for dealing with the wicked problem of concern and making the subtle
shifts that can move the system in the desired direction, recognizing that there
is no panacea change that will bring about all the desired shifts and that
smaller, more subtle moves will be needed in a variety of places and from a
variety of actors.
(4) Work with a co-evolution and emergence action framework: all the pieces of
wicked problems and CAS are connected and constantly in motion –you
cannot simply hold them still. There are also huge problems in isolating parts
because once connected to the system, they may act very differently than
expected because of the influence of the system’s dynamics and inherently
unpredictable nature of such problems. Moreover, when a new meme comes
to dominate, the very nature of the nature of the change challenge moves
from transformation to reform and incremental change. Issues are also deeply
interconnected: energy, water, food security, poverty are all connected, and
shifting the dynamics in one of these will have impacts on the others, again in
ways that are not necessarily predictable. Changing memes also involves
changing the very way we categorize and talk about issues. All this requires
working on complex wicked problems with an eye to emergence and making
what is first a peripheral innovation (technological, belief, economic, etc.)
more central. This type of action requires both a dynamic of pushing
“forward”relentlessly, and taking advantage and creating ad hoc
opportunities to support emergence of multiple possibilities, since it is not
clear which bet will be successful.
Co-evolution also requires a change system consciousness, rather than
simply attending to a particular change initiative. After all, it is a new system
that is evolving, not simply an organization. This change system perspective
can produce substantial synergies, reduce duplication, and address gaps in
needed change efforts to speed the transformation, when the dynamics of
complexity and wicked problems are harnessed rather than ignored.
(5) Emphasize resilience and adaptation: rather than thinking in terms of
“permanent”as a highly valued attribute, wicked problems emphasize giving
primacy to the concepts and values of resilience and adaptation. “Permanent”
suggests a non-learning entity that is brittle and unresponsive to changing
contexts and shifting needs. Complex responses must respond to context, which
requires valuing diversity as a key source of adaptive power to support multiple
actions. A resilient and adaptive electricity system will shift from the permanence
of large system energy generation infrastructure, to highly decentralized multi-
source systems. Of course, creating such resilience requires dealing with huge
power issues among the current actors who will be displaced or substantially
transformed, and supporting considerable experimentation.
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Conclusion
Successful organizational change can no longer focus only on creating systems and
structures that respond to a changing world, but rather engages and contributes
to the evolution of sustainable realities. Organizational change management needs to
recognize its position of influence in creating systems that support a flourishing future.
Social, political, technological, and natural system sustainability creates the conditions
for prosperity, resilience, and sustainability. By recognizing our individual and
collective influence on our broader systems we are able to more effectively position
organizations to not simply prepare for change, but create positive LSC. LSC, as we
have noted, involves shifting the dynamics of multiple, interacting, and interdependent
institutions organized around complex issues and wicked problems in desired directions
over time.
The unparalleled interconnectivity of human systems has supported a pace of
change unprecedented in human history. While we have seen great progress and
innovation we have also seen human and natural devastation of unimagined
proportions only decades ago. As we face social, political, natural, and financial crisis of
unparalleled significance organizations are faced with tremendous opportunity and
unfathomable risk. Organizational change management has, hence, become
increasingly important. New models for understanding the organization and its role
in creating a sustainable future for itself and the broader system are needed. Change
agents must expand their framework of understanding leadership and innovation
beyond organizational boundaries to include the broader systems within which an
entity exists. There is also wide recognition that people and organizations should play
an active role in influencing change in the large systems in which they live –at least to
do well, i.e., to create value for themselves, others, and the system as a whole, and
possible to do good, i.e., to create value for the systems they live and thrive in. LSC is
essential to support a flourishing future, complexity science, and our understanding of
wicked problems has created a framework for appreciating the context and dynamics
of systems and their corresponding behaviors while providing parameters for action.
The integration of complexity science and our understanding of wicked problems
can underpin the development of a comprehensive framework for supporting effective
LSC solutions. By integrating these concepts we expand our understanding of
organizational change management and provide change agents with a view to how
they can enhance their roles and influence and use the power of system dynamics to
support positive action for sustainable change. We recognize that this paper only
begins that task of evolving our understanding of organizational change management
and its application and implications in a dynamic, complex, and interdependent world.
We urge other scholars and change agents to help think through the cross-sectoral,
inter-organizational, and change dynamics involved in the types of LSC efforts need to
bring about a more sustainable, secure, and equitable world for all.
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Folke, C. (2006), “Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems
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Grobman, G.M. (2005), “Complexity theory: a new way to look at organizational change”,Public
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Liu,J.,Dietz,T.,Carpenter,S.,Alberti,M.,Folke,C,Redman,C.,Schneider,S.,Ostrom,E.,Pell,A.,
Lubchenco, J., Taylor, W., Ouyang, Z., Deadman, P., Kratz, T. and Provencher, W. (2007),
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Loorbach, D. (2010), “Transition management for sustainable development: a prescriptive,
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Ostrom, E. (1990), Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action,
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Polanyi, K. (1968), “In economic anthropology”, in Le Clair, E. and Schneider, H. (Eds), The
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Future of Global Governance, International Development Research Council, Toronto.
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Waddell, S., Hsueh, J., Birney, A., Khorsani, A. and Feng, W. (2014), “Large systems change:
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About the authors
Dr Sandra Waddock is the Galligan Chair of Strategy, the Carroll School Scholar of Corporate
Responsibility, and a Professor of Management at the Carroll School of Management, Boston
College, USA. Dr Sandra Waddock is the corresponding author and can be contacted at:
waddock@bc.edu
Dr Greta M. Meszoely was Founder and executive Director of the Center for Business
Complexity and Global Leadership and Associate Professor of Strategy in the Sawyer School of
Business at Suffolk University in Boston, MA when she began working on this article. She is
currently launching two new companies that allow universal access to advanced data science
capabilities to better understand complex systems for more effective decision-making.
Dr Steve Waddell is Principal at the Networking Action and Founding Executive Director of
the Global Action Network Net (GAN-Net). He is also a Lead Steward for the GOLDEN
Ecosystems Labs.
Domenico Dentoni is an Assistant Professor at the Management Studies Group, Department
of Social Sciences and a Principal Investigator of the Global Center for Food Systems Innovation
at the Wageningen University, the Netherlands.
For instructions on how to order reprints of this article, please visit our website:
www.emeraldgrouppublishing.com/licensing/reprints.htm
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