Testing the "PRESTo" early warning algorithm with OGS, ARSO and ZAMG seismic data: first results

Abstract

Since 2002 the OGS (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale) in Udine (Italy), the Agencija Republike Slovenije za Okolje (ARSO) in Ljubljana (Slovenia) and the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) in Vienna (Austria) are collecting, analyzing, archiving and exchanging seismic data in real time. The data exchange has proved to be effective and very useful in case of seismic events near the borders between Italy, Austria and Slovenia, where geographical distribution of the single national networks can not assure reliable location of the events outside or at the margin of the single networks, while the usage of common data from the integrated networks improves considerably the overall reliability of real time seismic monitoring of the area.
In order to extend the seismic monitoring in North-eastern Italy, Slovenia and Southern Austria towards Earthquake Early Warning applications, at the end of 2013 OGS, ARSO and ZAMG teamed with AMRA-Università di Napoli in Italy to test the reliability of the Probabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo) algorithm with their data: first test results will be illustrated.

Full text

TESTING
TESTING THE "PRESTO" EARLY WARNING
THE "PRESTO" EARLY WARNING
ALGORITHM WITH OGS, ARSO AND ZAMG
ALGORITHM WITH OGS, ARSO AND ZAMG
SEISMIC DATA: FIRST RESULTS
SEISMIC DATA: FIRST RESULTS
Luca Elia1, Andrej Gosar2, Wolfgang Lenhardt3, Marco Mucciarelli4, Damiano
Pesaresi4, Matteo Picozzi1, Mladen Živčić2, and Aldo Zollo1
1
14
4
3
3
2
2

Earthquake Early Warning
Earthquake Early Warning
Earthquake Early Warning
Objective: To estimate in a fast and reliable way
the earthquake’s damage potential
Objective: To estimate in a fast and reliable way
the earthquake’s damage potential



An integrated software
An integrated software
platform for real data
platform for real data
processing and
processing and
seismic alert notification
seismic alert notification
Automatic procedures for the
probabilistic and evolutionary
estimation of source parameters
and prediction of
ground motion shaking.
Automatic
Automatic
Picking
Picking
RT
RT
Earthquake
Earthquake
Location
Location
RT
RT
Magnitude
Magnitude
Estimation
Estimation
PGx
PGx
Prediction
Prediction
at Targets
at Targets
Satriano & Elia (2010). PRESTo, the earthquake early warning system for Southern Italy: Concepts, capabilities and future perspectives. Soil Dyn Earthquake Eng
PLUS
PLUS

4
Epicenter
Epicenter
Vulnerable
Site
Vulnerable
Site
Station
Alert Level
Station
Alert Level
Magnitude
Magnitude
Depth
Depth
EGU 2014
Accelerograms
Accelerograms P- and S-waves Windows
P- and S-waves Windows
PRESTo
PRESTo
PLUS
PLUS
Playback of the 1976 Friuli (Italy) Mw 6.5 Eqk
S-Waves
S-Waves

EGU 2014 5
PRESTo
PRESTo
PLUS
PLUS
Playback of the 1976 Friuli (Italy) Mw 6.5 Eqk

Would the EEW have been useful?
Would
Would the EEW
the EEW have
have been
been useful
useful?
?
EGU 2014 6
Given the 76’ network configuration, the Blind zone (BZ) is about 40 km
Municipalities in the area within the VI and VII macroseismic isolines could have been
alerted

76’ Friuli EQ. Mw 6.5 scenario
O Municipalities
Δ Stations
DM defined as the PGV+σ correspnding
to the Instr.Int. VI class from Faccioli &
Cauzzi (2006)
Region Blind Zone (km) Safer (km) Lead-Time (s) N. Mun. BZ N. Mun. SZ
Friuli 30.22 97.77 32 67 462
Would the EEW useful have been?
Would
Would the EEW
the EEW useful
useful have
have been
been?
?
With a modern network and
real-time data telemtry the BZ
can decrease to 30 km
A high number of
municipalities might benefit
from an alert

EGU 2014 8
OGS-ARSO-ZAMG PRESTo stations
OGS
OGS-
-ARSO
ARSO-
-ZAMG
ZAMG PRESTo
PRESTo stations
stations
21 Stations
21 Stations

2013.250
catalogue
M 3.1
Some training on recorded events
Some training on recorded events

2013.043
Catalogue
M 3.8
Some training on recorded events
Some training on recorded events

EGU 2014 11
PRESTo is working in real-time since the
begin of 2014
PRESTo
PRESTo is working in real
is working in real-
-time since the
time since the
begin of 2014
begin of 2014

EGU 2014 12
PRESTo
PRESTo
ML: 4.5
Date: 2014-04-22 08:58:40.28
(UTC)
Place: North-eastern Italy
Using 8 stations of CE3RN.
The first information on location
and magnitude of the earthquake
was available at this time:
2014-04-22 08:58:57.21 (UTC)
i.e. about 9.7 seconds after the first
P arrival detected at station ACOM
at this time:
2014-04-22 08:58:47.48 (UTC)
WRONG SETUP FOR EVENT DETECTION
WRONG SETUP FOR EVENT DETECTION 





ORIGINAL BINDING PARAMETERS: 6
ORIGINAL BINDING PARAMETERS: 6 st
st. IN 6 s
. IN 6 s
THE EVENT WAS DECLARED ON THE CLUSTER OF
THE EVENT WAS DECLARED ON THE CLUSTER OF
STATIONS IN THE FRIULI AREA AND NOT ON THE
STATIONS IN THE FRIULI AREA AND NOT ON THE
SLOVENIAN ONES
SLOVENIAN ONES
(NEW BINDING PARAMETERS ARE UNDER TEST
(NEW BINDING PARAMETERS ARE UNDER TEST ☺
☺☺
☺
☺
☺☺
☺)
)
True Location

EGU 2014 13
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS

OGS, ARSO, and ZMAG started a cooperation with the
OGS, ARSO, and ZMAG started a cooperation with the
RISSCLab
RISSCLab-
-UNINA to explore the feasibility of EEWS in North
UNINA to explore the feasibility of EEWS in North-
-
East Italy, Slovenia and Austria region
East Italy, Slovenia and Austria region

The first moderate
The first moderate event
event recorded
recorded in
in real
real time
time was
was worngly
worngly
detected
detected for
for bad
bad tuning
tuning of
of binding
binding parameters
parameters,
, but
but it
it is
is a
a good
good
training
training for
for the future
the future

The
The playback
playback of
of the 1976 Friuli
the 1976 Friuli earthquake
earthquake (
(Mw
Mw 6,5)
6,5) highlight
highlight
that
that an
an EEWS
EEWS might
might be
be relevant
relevant for
for providing
providing real
real-
-time
time alerts
alerts
to
to a
a large
large number
number of
of municipalities
municipalities
Thanks for your attention