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An assessment of metal supply sustainability as an input to policy: Security of supply extraction rates, stocks-in-use, recycling, and risk of scarcity
Abstract
The integrated model WORLD and Hubbert's model were used for assessment of future supply for different metals: iron, nickel, manganese, chromium, molybdenum, tantalum, niobium, rhenium, zirconium, tungsten, cobalt, copper, zinc, lead, aluminium and the technology metals derived from copper–zinc mining (tellurium, selenium, gallium, indium, antimony, bismuth, tin, germanium, selenium). The connections between their productions were mapped. The literature was reviewed for best estimates of total recoverable amounts, and best estimates were made, considering extraction costs and extractability. Peak years were determined for all the metals studied. Most metals seem to reach peak production during the next 4 decades, suggesting a risk for shortages in the near future. When supplies from mines dwindle, measures such as recycling from society's stock, substitutions to other materials than metals when this is possible, and stopped dissipative uses, will become important mitigation tools, calling for reorganization of resource policies world-wide. Present resource policies at all levels (regional, national, international) are to a large degree inadequate and need thorough review. The relevance of the Hubbert's model as an assessment tool was done. It is useful for all metals taken from independent ore deposits, whereas the method appears to be less suited for extraction of dependent metals unless the curve is derived from the Hubbert's model applied on the parent source. In such times, strategic thinking and strategic leadership based in systems thinking will be required.
... Gallium (Ga) and germanium (Ge) are technologically essential elements listed in the European Union's list of critical raw materials (European Commission, 2020). Gallium is mostly used in gallium arsenide (GaAs) compound semiconductors, which have applications in mobile phones and optoelectrical devices, such as laser emitting diodes (LEDs), solar cells, and military and wireless systems (Moskalyk, 2003;Butcher and Brown, 2014;Filella and Rodríguez-Murillo, 2017;Sverdrup et al., 2017;USGS, 2022a;Zhang et al., 2022). Germanium is mostly used in electronics and solar applications (e.g., fiber-optic systems), infrared optics (with military uses such as thermal imaging devices), in polymerization catalysis, and medical and metallurgical applications (Moskalyk, 2004;Melcher and Buchholz, 2014;Filella and Rodríguez-Murillo, 2017;Sverdrup et al., 2017;USGS, 2022b;Zhang et al., 2022). ...
... Gallium is mostly used in gallium arsenide (GaAs) compound semiconductors, which have applications in mobile phones and optoelectrical devices, such as laser emitting diodes (LEDs), solar cells, and military and wireless systems (Moskalyk, 2003;Butcher and Brown, 2014;Filella and Rodríguez-Murillo, 2017;Sverdrup et al., 2017;USGS, 2022a;Zhang et al., 2022). Germanium is mostly used in electronics and solar applications (e.g., fiber-optic systems), infrared optics (with military uses such as thermal imaging devices), in polymerization catalysis, and medical and metallurgical applications (Moskalyk, 2004;Melcher and Buchholz, 2014;Filella and Rodríguez-Murillo, 2017;Sverdrup et al., 2017;USGS, 2022b;Zhang et al., 2022). ...
... Most Ga is produced as a by-product of processing bauxite and from Zn-processing residues (Sverdrup et al., 2017;USGS, 2022a). The available resources of Ge are primarily associated with Zn and complex Pb-Zn-Cu ores, but significant amounts of Ge are also produced from coal combustion products (Sverdrup et al., 2017;USGS, 2022b). ...
Metallurgical slags enriched in Ga (144-156 mg/kg) and Ge (285-441 mg/kg) were investigated as potential sources of these technologically critical elements. Conventional mineralogical techniques (SEM/EDS, EPMA) were coupled with automated mineralogy using a Tescan Integrated Mineral Analyzer (TIMA) to quantitatively determine the partitioning of Ga and Ge in the slags. Both elements are primarily bound in the slag glass (90.5-95.4% of Ga and 95.9-96.7% of Ge). Extraction experiments conducted in 0.5 M H 2 SO 4 , 1 M HNO 3 , and 1 M HCl were used to simulate the hydrometallurgical recovery in view of the potential recovery of Ga and Ge. The leaching of Ga and Ge (and other valuable metals: Zn, Pb) was investigated as a function of time (2-12 h), temperature (25 and 70 • C), and particle size (original granulated slag and ultrafine-milled slag). Compared to other treatments, the highest Ga and Ge extractability was found in 0.5 M H 2 SO 4. No significant effect of the particle size, temperature, and time was observed on the Ga and Ge leaching. The optimum conditions for the extraction were: sulfuric acid treatment, original granulated slag (to limit the additional cost of crushing/mill-ing), 25 • C, and at least 6 h of extraction. Despite the high extractabilities of Ga and Ge, more tests are needed to validate the economic feasibility of their full-scale recovery, especially due to the highly fluctuating prices of these elements on the global market.
... Within the mentioned context above, the term "urban mining" has appeared as a concept that goes beyond recycling as a strategy solely oriented for economic and environmental purposes, but rather as a need to guarantee the security and sustainability of non-renewable material supplies through technologies that minimize environmental impacts [11]. In other words, the miners of the present will gradually become recyclers in the future since there will be more copper, iron, and zinc (and other metals) in the cities than in the mines after 2050 (considering current known reserves) [12]. ...
... That said, it is worth noting that even the best recycling processes never yield 100% recovery and, in typical cases, are far away from it. As pointed out by Sverdrup, Ragnarsdottir, and Koca [12], gains in recycling efficiency have been commonly used to expand production rather than to save primary resources. Thus, other than merely replacing conventional mining, urban mining will ultimately extend the lifespan of current reserves while alternatives to offset scarcity (like materials substitution, etc.) are sought (Figure 1). ...
Urban mining has emerged as a concept that goes beyond conventional recycling, as it aims to tackle both the challenges of solid waste generation and management, as well as the scarcity of primary resources. Gravity concentration has gained increasing attention as a promising method for addressing crucial challenges in urban mining applications. In this sense, this review provides a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of gravity concentration in urban mining processes, covering principles, techniques, current applications, recent advancements, challenges, and opportunities. Emphasis was placed on shifting from the commonly found literature focus on ore processing to solid waste processing. Three types of solid waste, namely plastics, construction and demolition waste (CDW), and waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), were chosen for a more in-depth examination due to their massive production and widespread generation. Discussions also considered the potential of gravity concentration to address the unique challenges in their processing and explored possibilities for future developments.
... 2018;Thiébaud et al., 2018), the overall recycling efficiency of REEs has been estimated at about 1%. Junne et al. and Sverdrup et al. suggest that by 2050 recycling rates of 80% are achievable and reported recycling rates of 15% for REEs in 2017 (Junne et al., 2020), (Sverdrup et al., 2017). This further provides additional evidence that the recycling rates mentioned by Schulze and Buchert (Schulze and Buchert, 2016) are very optimistic. ...
... • Recycling yield is a product of collection, disassembly, and recovery efficiencies. • Recycling yield of 15% is obtained from literature and do not vary by product (Junne et al., 2020), (Sverdrup et al., 2017). • Magnets from one product are recycled to be used in same product (closed loop). ...
... Silver resources are mainly reported in countries such as Peru, Mexico, China, Poland and Chile [5]. Most of the production comes as a sub-product from refining copper, cadmium, and zinc [6]. Various rates of silver recycling can be found in literature between 30 % and up to 80 % [6]. ...
... Most of the production comes as a sub-product from refining copper, cadmium, and zinc [6]. Various rates of silver recycling can be found in literature between 30 % and up to 80 % [6]. The wide dispersion of sources, the recovery of the metal as a by-product from the extraction of lead-zinc, copper, gold, or copper-nickel deposits, and the increasing recycling make the supply risk not critical (6.2/10 according RSC, [5]). ...
Magnetic chitosan microparticles (MC) are successfully functionalized by grafting two pyrimidine derivatives (bearing either trione, MC-PYO, or trithione groups, MC-PYS). The sorbents are characterized using SEM, TEM, BET, TGA, FTIR, titration, and elemental analysis. The study focuses on the comparison of the differential effects of functionalized groups on the sorption of silver. FTIR analysis shows the contributions of N-based, carbonyl, hydroxyl for silver binding onto MC-PYO, completed by sulfur contribution in the case of MC-PYS. Maximum sorption capacities at pH 6 reach 1.9 and 2.3 mmol Ag g⁻¹ for MC-PYO and MC-PYS, respectively. The Langmuir and the Sips equations fit sorption isotherms. The reactive groups affect the thermodynamic characteristics: endothermic for MC-PYS against exothermic for MC-PYO. The affinity of S-based soft ligand in MC-PYS for soft metals makes the sorbent selective for Ag(I). On the opposite hand, for MC-PYO the O-based functional groups readily bind hard metals (HSAB principle), involving less selective for silver recovery (from multi-component solutions). QSAR method (quantitative structure-activity relationships) allows correlating preferentially sorption properties with the covalent index. Nitric acid solutions (0.3 M) are highly efficient for total desorption of silver from metal-loaded sorbents, but soft enough to maintain remarkable sorption and desorption performances for at least five cycles. The sorbents are successfully applied to Ag(I) recovery from acidic leachate of waste photographic films: metal removal is enhanced at pH 5.2; MC-PYS is more efficient and selective than MC-PYO at pH 2.2.
... Extracting metals from primary geological sources and recycling final tailings must adapt to meet the growing demand for metals [8]. A critical challenge for the metallurgical industry is using environmentally friendly, safe, non-toxic, and inexpensive solvents [9]. ...
The traditional metallurgical routes for producing lead and zinc from primary sources have a significant environmental footprint. Thus, using less pollutant solvents, such as deep eutectic solvents (DESs), would offer a greener solution in metal extraction. This study explores the use of three DESs based on choline chloride (ChCl) (1:2 ChCl–urea, 1:2 ChCl–ethylene glycol, and 1:2 ChCl–glycerol) for recovering Zn and Pb from a sphalerite–galena concentrate of the mining region in Ecuador. Leaching tests of the concentrate (untreated and roasted at 600 °C) in each DES were conducted (30 °C—24 h). The effect of adding iodine as an oxidizing agent was also evaluated. Recoveries of 2% (Zn) and 14% (Pb) were reported when leaching the untreated concentrate with DES. These recovery values increased to 11% (Zn) and 99% (Pb) after adding iodine during the leaching of the untreated concentrate. Roasting had a similar effect on leaching, increasing the recovery values of Zn (75%) and Pb (90%). Combining roasting as a pretreatment and iodine as an oxidizing agent produced higher Zn recoveries (99%) and Pb (99%). These results were compared to recoveries in acid leaching (H2SO4 and HNO3), revealing the potential of DESs as an alternative for metal recovery from primary sources.
... Silver is used in light reflection industries for mirrors and photographic films (and X-ray films) because of its sensitivity to light and in photochromic lens manufacturing [8]. Most silver is derived as a sub-product from the refining of cadmium, zinc and copper [9]. Some hydrometallurgical procedures consume a huge amount of energy, which consequently increases the cost of recovery or decreases the efficiency of recovery of the desired metals; this results in toxic by-products which are a secondary pollution source. ...
A functionalized chitosan thiourea composite (CH-TU) was successfully synthesized using formaldehyde as a crosslinking agent for enhancing silver recovery from different aqueous solutions. Comparison sorption studies with a non-functionalized composite (CH-F) as a reference material were conducted. Grafting led to an improvement in the sorption performances, i.e., 0.763 mmol Ag g−1 for CH-F vs. 2.125 mmol Ag g−1 for CH-TU. The pseudo-first-order rate equation (PFORE) was fitted to the sorption kinetics at saturation times of 40 and 30 min for CH-F and CH-TU, respectively, while the sorption isotherms were fitted with Langmuir and Sips equations for both sorbents. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX), nitrogen sorption–desorption isotherms (BET-surface area), elemental analysis, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and pH of the zero charge (pHpzc) were used to characterize and investigate the sorption mechanism. Sorption was performed three times to check the reproducibility, while the sorption performances were stable over 20 cycles, with a limited decrease in performance (5 and 3% for CH-F and CH-TU, respectively). Nitric acid solution (0.3 M) was efficient for desorbing the adsorbed metal ions. The grafted sorbent with thiourea is considered as a promising tool for recovering Ag(I) from acidic waste leachate derived from waste spent films.
... The mineral sector brought up the dependency on Chinese critical raw materials, and China was seen as a threat to the technological development required for sustainable transition in the EU (about supply risks, see e.g. Brown, 2018;Mancheri, 2015;Sverdrup et al., 2017). Norwegian aquaculture experienced exclusion from the huge Chinese market after Liu Xiaobo received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010. ...
Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine in early 2022 has brought geopolitics, particularly classical geopolitics, back into the political and economic discussions and decision-making. Discursive, as well as real-world change, has been rapid, as the turn of the 21st century was the time of globalisation and neoliberal ideology – the free movement of people, products, and services. However, in this paper, we argue that classical geopolitics has defined the development of Northern industries even before the war began in 2022. Our interview data (n = 60) collected in the advent of the Russian invasion of Ukraine reveal that the themes of state power; ‘hard’ security meaning military armament; the economy as a field of national interests; and spill-over effects of geopolitical tensions between superpowers have framed economic fortunes in the European Arctic. It is concluded that the state actors’ interests in the European Arctic’s physical space and natural assets will be increasingly expanding.
... Major renewable resources consisting of recyclable metals, including Fe, Al, and Pt [7], occupy 80%. According to the latest estimate by Sverdrup et al. [8], scrap will be the primary source for Fe, Al, and Cu in the next three decades. Nevertheless, enterprises in China's auto recycling and dismantling industry are still operating in a relatively crude manner. ...
Recovering copper foil and crushed aluminum from end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) is a significant issue in the recycling industry. As a key technology for sorting aluminum, copper, and other non-ferrous metals, eddy current separation (ECS) is efficient in isolating the non-ferrous metals according to their different electrical conductivity and density. However, further research is still needed in the separation of large-size copper foil and crushed aluminum from scrapped vehicles. In this study, support vector regression (SVR) and the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) are exploited for the first time to be used in optimizing the Halbach magnetic roller. Firstly, the numerical simulation results are based on the response surface methodology (RSM). Then, the accuracy of four kernel functions employing SVR is compared to select a kernel function. The sparrow search algorithm (SSA) is proposed to optimize the structural parameters of the Halbach magnetic roller, concentrating on the above-selected kernel function. Meanwhile, the parameters are confirmed. Numerical simulation results indicate that machine learning for magnetic roller optimization is feasible.
... System dynamics (SD) model is an effective tool for exploring feedback mechanisms in a complex dynamic system (Ansari and Seifi, 2013;D. Liu et al., 2020;Harald U. Sverdrup et al., 2017). It allows for combining qualitative and quantitative analysis to describe undefined behavior and present corresponding measures to improve system behaviors (Dianati et al., 2019;X. ...
... Soil pollution is, thus, one of the greatest sustainability challenges that our society faces today [7]. Inorganic pollutants may originate from anthropogenic processes such as applications of impure P fertiliser containing Cd, but geogenic sources such as weathering and volcanic eruptions are often equally important in terms of risks to human health [2][3][4]8]. Metals and metalloids are sometimes naturally present at toxic levels in the soil [9]. ...
Soil pollution is a threat to food security and ecological and human health. Cd is one of the most common pollutants in agricultural soil and, due its human toxicity, one of the most hazardous. Amaranth is a documented hyperaccumulator of Cd and other pollutants, and it is commonly grown in Asia and South America. A considerable amount of amaranth is grown in suboptimal conditions, including nutrient-poor acidic soils. The objective of this experimental study was to examine the capacity of Amaranthus hypochondriacus to extract Cd from a nutrient-poor, acidic substrate that was spiked with different concentrations of Cd (2 and 20 mg kg−1 dw) during a period of 180 days. The plants grown in the substrate that was spiked with 20 mg Cd kg−1 dw did not develop into mature plants, but the plants grown in substrate that was spiked with 2 mg Cd kg−1 dw extracted a significant amount of Cd from the substrate by accumulating it into the above-ground biomass. The Cd levels varied from 113 to 176 mg kg−1 in the stems at the four measuring points, and from 64 to 94 mg kg−1 in the leaves. The concentrations in the plants increased with time and reached a maximal concentration of 176 ± 45 mg kg−1 dw for stems and 94 ± 41 mg kg−1 dw for leaves after 180 days. The mean bioaccumulation factor in the plants was 86 ± 15 after 90 days, 72 ± 12 after 120 days, 105 ± 37 after 150 days, and 99 ± 31 after 180 days, which confirms the previously reported capacity of Amaranthus hypochondriacus to hyperaccumulate Cd. Amaranthus hypochondriacus may, thus, be used to improve ecological and human health by remediating moderately Cd-polluted soils, even in nutrient-poor acidic soils.
... For instance, BEV trucks contain large batteries that can weigh up to five metric tons and requires significant amounts of metals like lithium and cobalt as part of the manufacturing process. By year 2050, these metals are projected to be scarce (Sverdrup et al 2017, Chitre et al 2020, Castelvecchi 2021. Hydrogen powered trucks can either utilize hydrogen fuel cells or directly combust hydrogen. ...
We must move toward electrification of the transportation sector to help mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change. Carbon emission reduction in long-haul freight transport should be developed and administered given it accounts for 22% of transportation related emissions worldwide. Although electrified transport can make tail-pipe vehicle carbon emissions negligible, it does not mean that the entire system that supports electrified transport is carbon-neutral. We address this latter point in the present study by conducting a cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment of long-haul electric trucks that are powered by overhead cable lines (OCL). The environmental impacts were compared with those of battery electric vehicle trucks (BEV), and conventional diesel-powered trucks. The techno-economic analysis of long-haul freight OCL technology was conducted based on data from pilot-scale studies in Germany. The feasibility of implementing this technology in other countries was examined by comparing environmental impacts across respective electricity mixes. Results show that the environmental and economic impacts of OCL technology depends on the adoption percent. After analyzing different adoption rate scenarios, OCL adoption was found to be economically and environmentally beneficial at the 10% adoption rate or higher. We also found that use phase electricity accounts for over 83% of the net greenhouse gas emissions, thereby making the electricity mix powering this technology a determining factor for implementation around the world. Across their life cycles, the carbon footprint of both OCL and BEV was 2.5 times lesser than that of the conventional truck. Other findings reveal adaptable methods, a unique environmental-to-economic ratio measure, and equity considerations that can be leveraged for immediate decision-making activities and future studies alike.
... Depleting reserves poses another risk to the tantalum supply. Estimates see the peak production of tantalum in 2005 (Sverdrup et al., 2017) or in 2039 (Calvo et al., 2017) and a static index of depletion of 50 years (Althaf and Babbitt, 2021). ...
... It is not the pure amount of minerals available in the Earth's crust that limits the exploitation of resources, but the (external) costs for the mitigation of the impacts of mining of the resources on the surrounding environment and the global climate. Calvo et al., Ragnarsdottir et al., and Sverdrup et al. used Hubbert's peak approach for estimating the ultimately available amount of mineral resources, whereas, with the same goal, Rankin extrapolated the results of an extensive assessment of the US Geological Service of the undiscovered deposits of gold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead in the USA to a global scale [5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Tilton states that it is impossible to provide predictions on the ultimately available amount of mineral resources [12,13]. ...
Much attention is being paid to the short-term supply security of raw materials for the energy transition. However, little attention is being paid to the impact of the energy transition on the long-term availability of a number of specific mineral resources that are needed for the realization of a fossil-free energy infrastructure. The aim of this paper is to examine whether the quantity of raw materials required for the energy transition could encounter limits of geological availability of mineral resources, especially in the case that energy supply and consumption are equitably distributed over all countries of the world in the long term. This study is an ex ante evaluation. The result of the evaluation is that four metals are relatively problematic: cobalt, copper, lithium, and nickel. The in-use stocks of these four metals in energy transition-related technologies may take up between 20% and 30% of the ultimately available resources of these metals in the continental Earth’s crust. Even with an 80% end-of-life recycling rate, the increase in the annual use of primary resources is estimated to be 9% for copper, 29% for nickel, 52% for cobalt, and 86% for lithium, compared to the estimated annual use of these metals without an energy transition. The conclusion of the study is that the question of whether energy equity and the energy transition are a compatible combination cannot be answered unambiguously. After all, it will depend on the extent and the speed with which cobalt, copper, lithium, and nickel can be substituted with other, geologically less scarce metals, and on the achieved end-of-life recycling rates of these metals, not only from energy transition-related products, but also from all other products in which these metals are applied. The novelty of the study is that the availability of raw materials for the energy transition is analyzed from a perspective of global equity at the expected level of the European Union in 2050.
... Given we have already argued for the importance of price feedbacks, we will focus on approaches that incorporate market clearing of both supply and demand (for common supply and demand modeling approaches, see the review by Watari et al., 2021). Broadly speaking, metals markets are studied using (i) econometric models (Fisher et al., 1972;Fu et al., 2017;Watkins & McAleer, 2004), (ii) agent-based models (Bollinger et al., 2012;Cao et al., 2021;Riddle et al., 2015), and (iii) system dynamics models (Elshkaki, 2013;Sprecher et al., 2015a;Sverdrup et al., 2017) or a combination of the three (Ryter et al., 2022). ...
Raw materials costs form an increasingly significant proportion of the total costs of renewable energy technologies that must be adopted at unprecedented rates to combat climate change. As the affordable deployment of these technologies grows vulnerable to materials price changes, effective strategies must be identified to mitigate the risk of higher input costs faced by manufacturers. To better understand potential threats to deployment, a market modeling approach was developed to quantify economic risk factors including material demand, substitutability, recycling, mining productivity, resource quality, and discovery. Results demonstrate that price changes are determined by interactions between demand growth, mining productivity, and resource quality. In the worst cases with high demand and low productivity, development of material substitutes and large recycling rates help reduce the prevalence of price risk from ∼90% to under 10%. Investing in these strategies yields significant benefits for manufacturers and governments concerned about costs of materials critical to decarbonization and other advanced technologies.
... Traditional methods are only able to accomplish the recovery of metals such as iron and aluminum, and high recovery rates exist only for ferrous and base metals primarily (Hagelüken et al., 2016). In economically underdeveloped regions or countries, the recycling of scrap electronics is separated by manual sorting, but it requires enough scrap collection and the ability to recover precious metals such as palladium, platinum, and gold in the scrap to be economically viable (Sverdrup et al., 2017). In automated recycling operations, magnets and sensors will be used to help separate materials. ...
Visual recognition technologies based on deep learning have been gradually playing an important role in various resource recovery fields. However, in the field of metal resource recycling, there is still a lack of intelligent and accurate recognition of metallic products, which seriously hinders the operation of the metal resource recycling industry chain. In this article, a convolutional neural network with dual attention mechanism and multi-branch residual blocks is proposed to realize the recognition of metallic products with a high accuracy. First, a channel-spatial dual attention mechanism is introduced to enhance the model sensitivity on key features. The model can focus on key features even when extracting features of metallic products with too much confusing information. Second, a deep convolutional network with multi-branch residual blocks as the backbone while embedding a dual-attention mechanism module is designed to satisfy deeper and more effective feature extraction for metallic products with complex characteristic features. To evaluate the proposed model, a waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) dataset containing 9266 images in 18 categories and a waste home appliance (WHMA) dataset containing 11757 images in 23 categories are built. The experimental results show that the accuracy reaches 94.31% and 95.88% in WEEE and WHMA, respectively, achieving high accuracy and high quality recycling.
... The main application of Sb is for flame-retardants, but it is also used in the production of lead-acid batteries, in the electronic industry, in pigments, pesticides, medicines, and detonators. Some of the main applications of Bi are the same as those of Sb, in addition to being applied in cosmetics and in the pharmaceutical industry [8,[10][11][12]. Bi-Sb alloys are also valuable materials with good solderability and high corrosion resistance, being often used as semiconductors in electronics [13][14][15][16]. ...
Antimony (Sb) and bismuth (Bi), which have been considered critical raw materials by the European Commission, cause inconveniences to copper production when they are present as impurities in copper electrorefining solutions. Therefore, ion–exchange resins to extract Sb and Bi from copper-containing electrolytes have typically been applied; after the adsorption of the metals, the elution step is conducted with an HCl solution to desorb them. In the present study, a novel membrane electrolysis system with a cation–exchange membrane was proposed to extract Sb and Bi ions from the elution solution, and a cyclic voltammetric study was carried out to evaluate the influence of the most important operating parameters on the process performance, such as Sb, Bi and HCl concentration, dilution factor of the solution, the presence of thiourea as a complexing agent, the presence of iron as an impurity, and temperature. The obtained voltammograms indicated that the simultaneous presence of the metals in solution alters considerably their electrodeposition and oxidation pattern when compared to the solutions with pure metals. The reactions of electrodeposition of both metals are not electrochemically reversible and the diffusion control for bismuth is greater than that for antimony. The increase in the concentration of Sb affects its electrodeposition kinetically, whereas that of Bi is affected both kinetically and thermodynamically. The increase in HCl concentration disfavors the electrodeposition of both metals. Diluting the solution reduces the energy consumption and prolongs the membrane lifespan. Increasing the temperature reduces the cathodic potential to deposit the metals but favors the hydrogen evolution reaction. The presence of iron as an impurity does not affect the electrodeposition of both metals, whereas the use of thiourea as a complexing agent must be avoided because it impairs their electrodeposition.
... While antimony has been analyzed in traditional metal criticality studies (e.g. Hayes et al. 2018, Panousi et al., 2020, Gemechu et al., 2015, Chakhmouradian et al., 2015, Nuss and Blengini, 2018, Sverdrup et al., 2017, Henckens et al., 2016, it has not been studied from a resilience perspective. Traditional criticality studies mainly look at static parameters such as diversity of supply and stability of regimes in source countries. ...
Antimony is considered a critical and strategically important metal and is used in a wide range of products. This study examines major antimony supply chain disruptions from 1913 to 2018 and analyses how resilience mechanisms and price feedback loops contributed to supply chain resilience. We found that the antimony diversity of supply of both mining and refining is low, but is enhanced by recycling, around 25% of global antimony supply is produced via recycling of antimony bearing metal alloys. Based on production volume, almost 70% of antimony was mined as by- or co-product in 2018, indicating a high supply risk. However, the presence of unrecovered by-products can also make the supply more elastic. Substitution is possible for some antimony applications, but for one of the main applications, flame retardants, performance of substitutes is still considered inadequate. Overall, stockpiling played a significant role in both dampening and exacerbating supply disruptions. It is recommended that the mined production and processing capabilities are diversified, stockpiles are explored as a mechanism to absorb sudden shortages, and, most importantly, recycling of antimony (trioxide) should be further improved.
... The demand for these secondary products also depends on government intervention. Even though the government has purchasing power with regards to secondary products, lack of cooperation and communication hinder positive government intervention on the manufacturing of secondary products (Sverdrup et al., 2017;Tennakoon et al., 2021). Likewise, Yu et al. (2017) further stressed that the complexity of the demolition process and the lack of rigorous implementation of regulations in the recycling process have failed to enable effective decision-making. ...
Purpose: Reverse Logistics Supply Chain (RLSC) for demolition waste management is a complex process that inherits significant interdependent risks. However, studies on RLSC have not explicitly identified the risks of its inter-relationships by disentangling their effects on operational performance. Accordingly, this paper aims to identify and assess the inter dependencies of the risks in RLSC, to improve quality-related operational performance.
Design/Methodology/Approach: A sequential exploratory mixed-method research approach, consisting of qualitative and quantitative methods was employed. The qualitative approach involved 25 semi-structured interviews, whereas the 18 subsequent structured interviews were conducted with stakeholders in the entire RLSC as part of the quantitative method. These used to identify the cause-and-effect relationships of the identified risks. The data was analysed using thematic analysis and the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) technique was used to develop a conceptual risk model.
Findings: 20 risks in four RLSC sub-processes, namely, dismantling, and on-site process, off-site resource recovery process, marketing of secondary products and residue disposal emerged. Among cause-and-effect relationships of identified risk factors, inferior quality of secondary products were found to have the strongest relationship with customer satisfaction. Under-pricing of dismantling job, improper landfill operations, and inadequacy of landfill levy are independent risks that initiate other risks down the supply chain. The aggregate effects of these risks affect customer dissatisfaction of the end-product, as well as health and safety risks in on-site, off-site and residue disposal.
Research Limitations/Implications: This study only identify the cause-and-effect relationships of the identified risks within RLSC for demolition waste management operations for DWM. It has not been targeted a specific construction material or any secondary production, which could be practiced through a case study in future research
Practical Implications: The results encourage the investigation of RLSC process quality by maintaining the relationship between recycler and customer to enable a safe workplace environment. Hence, the role of relevant practitioners and government are inseparable in supporting decision-making. Future research could discuss the impact of those interrelated risks in relation to time- or cost-related operational performance criteria.
Originality/Value: This study contributes to the field through presenting the first major study on the identification and assessment of the inter dependencies of the risks in RLSC in South Australia. The RLSC process mapping had been identified as a tactical and operational management approach. However, the risk management process is a strategic management approach. Therefore, the integration of both process mapping and the risk management approaches in one platform is germane to construction management research.
... Iron, aluminium and copper are not only the main metals required in the electricity sector; they are also considered the most important metals for the infrastructures of modern societies (Sverdrup et al., 2017). Although the global peak production of these metals is estimated to occur within the next two or three decades (ibid.), ...
Transforming and expanding the electricity sector are key for climate change mitigation and alleviation of energy poverty. Future energy systems based on renewable energy sources may reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but could require more materials during construction. We assess this trade-off by quantifying the requirements of the main bulk materials used in electricity infrastructures for 281 global electricity sector pathways until 2050. We identify main determinants for material requirements and gauge the relevance of socio-economic framework conditions and climate change mitigation regimes. Five selected, highly diverse scenarios are analysed in detail by quantifying their respective annual material stocks and flows, and cumulative GHG emissions to 2050. We find robust evidence that scenarios in line with the 1.5 °C target are associated with significantly higher material requirements than scenarios exceeding a global temperature rise of 2 °C. Material stocks in 2050 differ by up to 30% for copper, 100% for concrete, 150% for iron/steel and 260% for aluminium (3rd quartiles of Monte Carlo simulations), even when the particularly material-intensive “Below 1.5 °C″ scenarios are excluded. Although power plants account for the largest part of the material requirements, grid expansion and reinforcement, necessary to accommodate large shares of volatile power generation and provide universal access to electricity, also cause substantial material demand. In the absence of future GHG mitigation in the processing industries, GHG emissions related to bulk materials (primarily iron/steel and aluminium) could amount to one tenth of the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. However, if preference is given to material-efficient technologies, low-carbon processes are applied in the industries and increased material recycling is achieved, GHG emissions related to bulk materials in decarbonisation pathways will not significantly exceed those in largely fossil fuel-based scenarios.
... Lead-antimony alloys have also several applications, such as in corrosion-resistant pumps and pipes, roofing sheets, solder, and cables [33,141,142]. In addition to some above-mentioned applications, bismuth is used in cosmetics and in the pharmaceutical industry [143,144]. Bi-Sb alloys are also used as semiconductors in electronics [145]. The widespread use of antimony and bismuth and the growing concerns regarding their scarcity point to the need to recover these metals in the copper electrorefining stage. ...
The mining industry has faced significant challenges to maintaining copper production technically, economically, and environmentally viable. Some of the major limitations that must be overcome in the coming years are the copper ore grade decline due to its intense exploitation, the increasing requirements for environmental protection, and the need to expand and construct new tailings dams. Furthermore, the risk of a supply crisis of critical metals, such as antimony and bismuth, has prompted efforts to increase their extraction from secondary resources in copper production. Therefore, improving conventional processes and developing new technologies is crucial to satisfying the world’s metal demands, while respecting the policies of environmental organizations. Hence, it is essential that the chemical composition of each copper production stage is known for conducting these studies, which may be challenging due to the huge variability of concentration data concerning the ore extraction region, the process type, and the operational conditions. This paper presents a review of chemical composition data of the main stages of copper production from sulfide minerals, such as (1) copper minerals, (2) flotation tailings, (3) flotation concentrates, (4) slags and (5) flue dust from the smelting/converting stage, (6) copper anodes, (7) anode slimes, (8) contaminated electrolytes from the electrorefining stage, (9) electrolytes cleaned by ion-exchange resins, and (10) elution solutions from the resins. In addition, the main contributions of recent works on copper production are summarized herein. This study is focused on production sites from Chile since it is responsible for almost one-third of the world’s copper production.
... There is a real risk due to metal scarcity and to the impact of exploration of these metals involving geopolitical risk and human rights abuse [29]. Therefore, recycling and the technical loops are strategies to ensure resource availability over time [30]. The social factor analysis considered the improvements to reduce the ergonomic risks. ...
Product-Service System (PSS) is a sustainable strategy that shifts the focus of the business from selling physical products to providing service by using the product. The innovation proposed in the PSS, focused on sustainable production and consumption, is consistent with the sustainable development goals of the United Nations 2030 Agenda. The scientific literature on PSS in machining showed studies that address the economic factor of PSS contract, machine maintenance and logistics and operational process improvement. Then, there is a lack of studies on the assessment of the PSS in machining under a sustainability factors perspective. Thus, the objective of this paper was to evaluate the economic, environmental, and social advantages of PSS cutting tools in machining. Consistent with this aim, the research focused on a case study in a diesel engine parts machining company. From an economic point of view, the results indicated a reduction in operating costs of US$ 1,206,080 per year, which allowed a nine-month return on investment. From an ecological perspective , the recovery of 602 kg of carbide per year mitigated the environmental impact of tungsten and cobalt exploration. These results are even more expressive because it deals with scarce metals. Furthermore, technological advances reduced the risk of injury to operators. This research increased knowledge on PSS in machining by presenting an original study that led the analysis under a sustainability perspective. Moreover, this study contributes to managers by showing the business model's advantages that reduce operating costs and socio-environmental impacts, enhancing sustainable development.
... The main issue of nanotechnology is the handling nanowaste materials after reusing them, since they are particles with extremely small sizes, which make them difficult to monitor and track. Meanwhile, because this technology is a very recent topic, there is not enough knowledge about their waste treatment and the implications for the environment [18,19]. Environmental issues with nanowaste are getting worse compared to bulk materials as a result of various classifications, such as synthetic and natural, inorganic and organic, spheres and clusters, wires, nanofibers, plates, and thin films. ...
This chapter discusses the potential usage of recycled nanomaterials in industrial applications and explains scalable technologies for the recovery of nanomaterials from composite systems. Relevant regulations for waste management are also described to follow the standards and achieve the authorization of recycled nanomaterials. This chapter addresses the approaches to cost-effective material separation, recycling, and recovery and assesses environmental sustainability. In addition, this chapter contributes to the circular economy movement by promoting sustainable development by utilizing sustainable materials (waste nanomaterials) and adopting environmentally friendly production processes. Recovery of nanomaterials from the selected matrix, which can be polymers or biobased systems, can be achieved by developing new protocols and methodologies such as electroplating, thermal treatments, upcycling, and selective recovery processes. Therefore current research developments related to nanomaterials recycling for industrial applications are elaborated by providing specific examples from different fields and considering environmental issues.
... The relative scarcity of literature on this topic is opposed to other more mainstream metals whose ESG coverage is high, e.g., Co (van den Brink et al., 2020, Chen et al., 2020, Fu et al., 2020, Rare earth elements (Weng et al., 2016, Arshi et al., 2018, Fe (Nuss et al., 2014), Au (Andrews andEssah, 2020, Gifford et al., 2010), and Cu, Pb and Zn (Seck et al., 2020, Liu et al., 2020, Mudd et al., 2017, Sverdrup et al., 2017. The lack of studies into Ti and Zr contrasts markedly with minerals related to battery storage and green energy production, where numerous studies exist (Sun et al., 2019, Sterba et al., 2019, Kowasch, 2018, Prior et al., 2013 including a number of commercial enterprises which have launched their own research offerings and commissioned studies (Roskill, 2020, BMW, 2020. ...
The growing focus on environmental responsibility from the community, investors and regulators presents immense challenges and opportunities to mining companies. Titanium and zirconium minerals are vital, unrecyclable, and often irreplaceable components of modern infrastructure and technology. The companies which supply these minerals often have a long-history of sustainability reporting. Such reports have been used here to analyse energy usage, carbon dioxide emissions and water usage from mining and processing these minerals. Mining operations and titanium-slag producers in Australia, Canada, China, Mozambique, Madagascar, Norway, and South Africa were analysed. This paper presents both site-specific data as well as data generalized to heavy mineral sand (HMS) deposits vs igneous hard-rock style deposits, as well as those products which have undergone beneficiation. In terms of averages, energy use was higher for HMS (yearly average of between 0.90 – 2.95 GJ/t valuable heavy mineral (VHM)) compared to ilmenite-dominant hard-rock mining (yearly average of between 0.21 – 0.49 GJ/t ilmenite) and Ti-slag production required between ∼10 – 14 GJ/t of saleable product (including titanium slag and pig-iron). Emissions from ilmenite-dominant hard rock mining produced ∼0.01 t CO2e/t ilmenite concentrate while HMS mining produced 0.07-0.38 t CO2e/t of VHM; emissions from beneficiating ilmenite into Ti-slag add significantly to this (0.62-1.21 t CO2e/t of saleable product, weighted by value). Overall, hard-rock mining operations consumed <5 kL/t ilmenite concentrate while HMS consumed 10-26 kL/t VHM. On the other hand, beneficiating hard-rock ilmenite into slag increases water-use by ∼220 kL/t of saleable product. Finally, in terms of land use, it was determined that an average of 4.3 ha per 1 Mt of ore was disturbed in HMS operations (no data was available for hard-rock operations). While average results comparing HMS, hard-rock and beneficiated products were broadly comparable to existing LCA literature, data used in LCA literature is not consistent with specific sites and using generalized data to infer site-specific data will often lead to erroneous estimates. These observations taken together are particularly important to downstream purchasers, as well as the investment community who do not fund entire industries, but fund and back specific projects; the decision made on which site or company to invest in is increasingly determined by environmental, social and governance (ESG) related factors. This paper not only provides quantitative indications of these factors for Ti/Zr production, but also guidance for improving sustainability reporting in the industry. An improvement in the quality, quantity and consistency in this data, as this paper explains, will allow for greater information to guide investment and ESG outcomes for Ti/Zr industries.
... The mining and smelting of these materials have been fairly well documented and its environmental impacts are generally understood (Kosai and Yamasue, 2019). The environmental effects of mining are substantial and thus recycling materials should be strongly considered during the pre-manufacturing process due to economic and environmental considerations (Sverdrup et al., 2017). The powder formation process is generally referred to as the atomization process. ...
Additive manufacturing (AM), also known as 3D printing is a relatively new concept and promising technology for industrial production. It is important to investigate the environmental impact of the AM process in light of the environmental critical situation of the Earth. The elimination of some costly prefabrication processes such as molding or post-fabrication stages such as machining and welding required in traditional manufacturing methods favor the AM process and provide beneficial economic advantages. Furthermore, the reduction of manufacturing steps contributes to environmental protection through fewer operations, less material, and energy consumption, and reduced transportation. This study is a review for the assessment of environmental impact and life cycle of some well-known AM technologies for manufacturing metallic parts and components. The fabrication of a pump impeller is simulated through a well-known metal production AM technology and casting process for direct comparison. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is applied to measure the environmental impact in five different stages of pump impeller lifetime with the two different fabrication processes. AM compared to casting has an environmental impact reduction potential of 15%, 20%, 65%, 20%, and 10% respectively in Global Warming Potential (GWP), Acidifications Potential (AP), Water Aquatic Eco-toxicity Potential (FAETP), Human Toxicity Potential (HTP), and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion (ODP). Using hydroelectricity and renewable electricity mitigate the environmental impact of the AM process in pre-manufacturing and manufacturing stages temporarily until the advancement of AM technology for consuming less energy. Recommendations for future research to enhance the environmental sustainability of the AM process is proposed as outcomes of this study.
... CIGS is a well-known material with good optical properties [3]. Therefore, the CIGS thickness range of 2-3 lm is still being used for sufficient light absorption [3][4][5][6]. Lightweight and ultrathin flexible solar cell devices are particularly attractive in the markets which use fewer materials and hence reduce production time with lower-cost labor [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. ...
This paper presents an investigation of ultrathin Cu (In1−xGax) Se2 solar cell which was calibrated from the fabricated cell using Silvaco-TCAD tools. Carrier transport mechanism and conduction band alignment at the CdS/CIGS interface shows a large influence on PV parameters. The influence of the absorber trap density on the electrical characteristics of the single junction cell was investigated under AM 1.5G one-sun (100 mW/cm2) illumination. Further simulations quantify significant improvements in cell efficiency while using a thin Al2O3 material as a rear passivation layer. In addition, the impact of the backside pitch size, opening width, absorber layer doping, and thickness on cell performance is investigated to enhance the cell efficiency. To evaluate our work, the electrical characteristics of the optimized cell were compared to the fabricated cells.
This paper presents an investigation of CIGS solar cell using 2D modelling using SILVACO Atlas TCAD tools under drift–diffusion and with Boltzmann distribution across the Cds/CIGS layer interface. The impact of SRV (surface recombination velocity) over the heterojunction interface on nature of optical and electrical properties of Cds/CIGS junction is investigated. Investigation of different back mirror contact silver, copper gold, palladium and titanium by replacing molybdenum back mirror contact to improve photo absorption in the layer. In this work, there is calibration of CIGS and ZnO doping was investigated under illumination of AM1.5G. In addition, we investigated impact of Cds + CIGS thickness and cathode work function at different values. Under AM1.5 illumination at 300 K, the best power conversion efficiency (PCE) of 22.59% is achieved with a thinner absorber of around 0.5 μm thick.
The demand for power electronics solutions is increasing. The reasons for this are the current transformation in energy supply and mobility towards sustainability on the basis of renewable energy sources. Consequently, sustainability should also be a goal for the power electronics themselves. This paper presents the recycling potential of various single-phase OBCs, which is analyzed by means of in-depth technical analysis and calculation of recycling rates (RRs). A qualitative and quantitative analysis of four OBC’s construction is conducted to get an overview of the materials used and their masses. Based on the material and mass information, the RR analysis could be performed. The study contributes to the sustainability evaluation of power electronics, e.g. as a supplementary contribution to the method of life cycle assessment. The work was supported financially by the ECPE European Center for Power Electronics.
In response to climate and resource challenges, the transition to a renewable and decentralized energy system is imperative. Ultrathin Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 (CIGS)‐based solar cells are compatible with such transition due to their low material usage and improved production throughput. Despite the benchmark efficiency of CIGS technology, ultrathin configurations face efficiency drops arising from increased rear interface recombination and incomplete light absorption. Dielectric passivation schemes address rear interface recombination, but achieving simultaneous electrical and optical gains is crucial for thinning down the absorber. Plasmonic nanoparticles emerge as a solution, enhancing light interaction through resonant scattering. In the proposed architecture, the nanoparticles are encapsulated within a dielectric rear passivation layer, combining effective passivation and light trapping. A controlled deposition and encapsulation of individualized nanoparticles is achieved by an optimized process flow using microfluidic devices and nanoimprint lithography. With the developed plasmonic and passivated architecture, a 3.7 mA cm ⁻² short‐circuit current density and a 23 mV open‐circuit voltage improvements are obtained, leading to an almost 2% increase in light‐to‐power conversion efficiency compared to a reference device. This work showcases the developed architecture potential to tackle the electrical and optical downfalls arising from the absorber thickness reduction, contributing to the dissemination of ultrathin technology.
The forthcoming energy transition driven by the need to reduce CO 2 emissions requires large amounts of critical elements to construct renewable energy devices such as car batteries, wind turbines and solar panels. For many elements such as Li, Co, REEs and Ti, the production sources are located in countries with poor social and environmental standards, prone to political destabilization such as military conflicts, or vulnerable to strained relationships with consumer countries. Lately, the volatile geopolitical context has further demonstrated the high dependency of Europe and other developed countries in terms of raw material supply. In addition, there is a debate about the Earth's potential to sustain the transition toward a green society by using conventional resources from mining of terrestrial rocks. As nature conservation and climate mitigation are now priorities for the majority of governments, and since conventional mining on Earth suffers from a growing social resistance, humankind may need to look toward new frontier resources for supplying the mineral needs of the coming decades. Here, we explore the use of extra‐terrestrial resources as a potential source to feed the future supply of critical metals. Extra‐terrestrial mining may be an opportunity for wealth creation and an option for critical metal resource supply when mining on Earth becomes increasingly untenable. We conclude that the potential impacts of extraction and exploitation of space resources, both good and bad, could be societally profound.
Gallium (Ga) and germanium (Ge) are two elements of high industrial interest, included in the current United States and European Union lists of critical raw materials. This paper compares Ga and Ge concentrations between coals and associated paleosols and shales in Indiana. In addition, we include Ga and Ge data on the coal waste from coal preparation plants (coal tailings) to evaluate the coal tailings as potential sources of these elements. Paleosols have an average Ga content of 26.70 ppm, more than shales with an 18.77 ppm average, and coals with a 4.61 ppm average. The Springfield coal tailings average 15.60 ppm of Ga and the Brazil and Staunton Formation coal tailings average 31.90 ppm. For Ge, the coals have the highest average concentration (6.46 ppm), then shales (1.36 ppm), and paleosols (0.96 ppm). In coal tailings, the average Ge concentration is 13.90 ppm for the Springfield and 47.70 ppm for the Brazil and Staunton Formation coal waste. For Ga, a very strong positive correlation was obtained with aluminum (Al) in paleosols (R2=0.89) and coal tailings. A strong correlation was also obtained for shales (R2=0.86), together indicating that Al content is a great predictor of Ga concentrations in these materials. For Ge, there seems to be a tendency of decreasing Ge concentration with an increase in Al content in coals, suggesting an organic and not mineral association for this element. The organic association is also supported by a strong negative correlation between Ge and ash yield in coal tailings.
The current scientific community regards secondary metal production not only as a solution that may alleviate future resource shortages but also as an effective way to achieve energy savings and reduce environmental pollution. However, such studies usually assumes a linear value chain and ideal production conditions with high grades of scraps. More evidence needs to be provided to demonstrate the advantages of secondary production over primary production. In this work, we conducted an empirical analysis through production data of 6 categories of metals from 44 countries and 5 rest-of-the-world regions from 1995 to 2015, so as to partially illustrate the actual difference between primary production and secondary production in the world. Results show that secondary production has an advantage only in terms of economic profitability, and lags behind primary production in terms of energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, and resource efficiency. We explored the reason for contradiction with the mainstream viewpoint, and discussed influencing factors and implications of our results. This study reveals the importance of both contextualization and globalization when establishing circular economy strategies and more sustainable metals management.
Biofuels that are applied using advanced conversion technologies are promoted as green alternative to fossil fuels. The water footprint, the freshwater consumption, linked to current life cycles of such biofuels is much larger than the corresponding consumption associated with fossil fuels. Wind‐ and photovoltaic energy are also characterized by water footprints that are much lower than the corresponding consumption linked to biofuels. Food production and biofuel production increasingly compete for scarce freshwater resources and freshwater stress may increase when biofuel production expands. Availability of freshwater may be a limiting factor in biofuel production. Biofuel life cycles can also be associated with substantial water pollution burdens of nitrate, phosphate, pesticides, and organic substances. On the other hand, it has been proposed to use wastewater for the production of microalgal biofuels. So far, however, no full‐scale production based on this proposal that meets standards achieved by state‐of‐the‐art wastewater treatment facilities has been reported. In many respects relevant to green perspectives, except the consumption of geochemically scarce mineral resources, solar and wind‐based technologies tend to outperform biofuel‐based energy supply technologies. There would seem to be a case for modest expectations as to the share of biofuels that are applied using advanced conversion technologies in future energy supply.
The replacement of internal combustion engines by electric vehicles (EVs) is being promoted towards the decarbonisation of the transportation sector. EVs require important amounts of materials, some of which are...
The growing concern of migration against a linear economy toward a circular economy has raised several political agreements in different nations. Planned obsolescence plays a crucial role from this aspect as it fosters the buyer to own a new product before the actual need. Producers practice different mechanisms to deliberately design their products to become obsolete before the natural product life. In this study, publications concerning planned obsolescence were analyzed by performing bibliometric analysis that extracted various parameters including citation per paper (CPP), total citation (TC), and total papers (TP) to understand the development and structure of this area. The results of the most widely used Web of Science and Scopus databases were compared on factors such as leading ten productive and most cited authors, top journals, and countries. Later on, frequently used keywords were visualized with the help of a VOS viewer.KeywordsPlanned obsolescenceBibliometric analysisReplacement cycleSustainability
Metal resources are unevenly distributed throughout the globe but are crucial for the global economy. Many economies are highly dependent and vulnerable to material supply from other parts of the world. This situation can be alleviated by recycling, as regions devoided of important reserves exploit their own urban mine. In this study, we explored an increased domestic recycling scenario utilizing a stock-flow perspective combined with a hybrid input-output database (EXIOBASE). We applied a mass rebalancing procedure on the production and trade flows of ores and metals. We calculated the supply risk with the GeoPolRisk method for single and two-stage supply chains. Results show that recycling reduce the risk associated with trade for most of countries and materials for the metal supply chain, where recycling effectively takes place. In contrast, such risk decrease is not found in the ore supply chain nor in the combined ore and metal supply chain.
Nanotechnology-based industries are projected to grow from a multimillion-dollar industry to a few billions of dollars in the next few decades. The rate of nanotechnology production is very high as per global market scenario. With increasing penetration of nanomaterials (NMs) in our daily lives through consumer products, nanowastes and nanobyproducts are bound to circulate in the environment and our surroundings. These include the byproducts generated from nanotechnology processed products. This chapter discusses the various NMs or nanostructured byproducts and the nanowaste that is generated by various industries. Nanoparticles that are released into the atmosphere are contemplate as different categories of waste when compared to their bulk counterpart. NMs recycling offers many benefits in both environmental and economic terms. NMs can be recycled from both new and pure products (from nanomanufacturing) and used products (nanowaste from nanointegrated products). This chapter discusses various processes of nanobyproduct generation and utilization that will be part of the evolution toward green technology.
Clean energy technologies are emerging as a major contributor to the total energy supply. Some metals play irreplaceable roles in these technologies. The supply risk of metals used in clean energy technologies is gradually increasing. Hence, it is necessary to investigate the supply risks of these metals worldwide. In this study, a comprehensive assessment is conducted to quantify the supply risks of critical metals. The production of the metals is imbalanced worldwide. China, Russia, the United States, Canada, and Australia dominate the supply of these metals. China has the largest supply risk, and the main risk contribution is linked to mining governance and policy, which suggests that strengthening government regulations is necessary. The supply risks in the United States, Russia, and Canada are moderate, and most risks are associated with geologic availability and recycling restrictions. Al, Cu, Fe, Pb and Ag displayed high risks linked to geologic availability and recycling restrictions. Pd, B, Sb, W, Re, Ge and Ga exhibited high risks related to mining governance and policy and environmental sustainability. Difficult exploration processes and highly sensitivity market supplies increased the supply risk. This study provides an important reference for the strategic application of the metals in clean energy technologies in the future.
The applications of ILs in the preparation and recovery of several inorganic and hybrid
materials are promising. ILs can be generally applied for several materials, such as
metals, nonmetal elements, silicas, metal oxides, chalcogenides, and porous materials.
ILs offer high recyclability and can be cost-effective after optimization, making them
attractive and receiving a growing number of scientists. ILs can be considered green
solvents. The methods that implement ILs are sustainable and could be effective in
comparison to conventional methods. Future research will explore the synthesis of
cheap ILs, making use of cost-effective methods.
The extraction rate of some raw materials is relatively high in comparison with the economically exploitable amounts in the Earth’s crust. Within a period of a century or so, these materials may become difficult to afford for future generations, unless timely measures are taken to keep these materials also available for future generations. The price mechanism of the free market may not react timely enough to future geological scarcity. The free market price mechanism reacts to today’s and tomorrow’s developments but does not necessarily take account of the interests of future generations, which are still at least decades ahead. To overcome this limitation of the market, mineral resources governance and policy need to be designed, agreed upon and implemented at a global scale. We analyze and assess eleven different policy instruments for achieving a more sustainable use of eight scarce raw materials.
This Report is the first in a series of reports on decoupling to be published by the International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management. It aims at scoping the challenges of decoupling. On material flows, the Report gives quantitative assessments at a global scale, at national levels, classified into the four major categories of primary raw materials: construction minerals, ores and industrial minerals, fossil fuel carriers, and biomass. Globally, the extraction of raw materials is estimated to be between 47 and 59 billion metric tons (Gt) per year, with a clear tendency of further massive increases. Over one century, the use of construction materials grew roughly 34 fold, that of ores 27 fold, while biomass use, dominating material flows in the first half of the last century, increased only 3.6 fold.
The Report proceeds to delineate three different trajectories of resource consumption until 2050, assuming in all three cases that the populations of all countries will change according to the UN projections (medium variant). (1) A business-as-usual scenario assumes for developed countries a continuation of the decoupling as observed in the past and rising levels of resource consumption in all other countries to the level of the developed countries by 2050. Not surprisingly, this would lead to a tripling of global annual resource extraction and consumption, as poorer countries catch up with the consumption patterns of the rich. The planetary environmental impacts would be unbearably high. (2) A moderate contraction and convergence scenario assumes absolute reductions for the industrial countries to a consumption per capita of half of the rates for the year 2000 (contraction), while all other countries catch up to this (reduced) level by 2050 (convergence). For developing countries, this implies decoupling. Despite the structural changes in the dominant production and consumption patterns implied by this trajectory, it leads to a roughly 40% increase in annual global resource use and associated impacts. (3) A tough contraction and convergence scenario simulates a pathway towards keeping global primary resource extraction at the current level. This implies even more reduction in resource use for industrial countries and much stronger decoupling for developing countries. It is the only trajectory that in terms of fossil fuel consumption and related CO2 emissions complies with the climate protection targets set by the IPCC.
The process of modelling needs great care and must be followed systematically. A route from mental model, via Causal Loop Diagrams to structural models is suggested. Modelling software is suggested as a useful help. Models are nothing but pictures of our understanding and must be treated as such. Mistakes made in modelling inevitably go back to faulty understanding, and revision of the understanding is more important than calibrating this away. Model choice is highly specific of the questions asked, and as questions are many, so are the models needed to answer them. Therefore no specific biogeochemical model can be recommended before any other. The choice depends on the combination of questions asked and the data available for driving potential models. Most questions have no models ready for them, and the reader is urged to develop his own specific models, and take great care in communicating these. Often an existing bio-geochemical model can be used as point of departure, and either adapted for the new purpose or used as an inspiration for a new model. The best biogeochemical model to use is the one that answers the question in an adequate way with the smallest amount of time and money.
tThe authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society andsilver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing oregrades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study.The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society andwaste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resourcetime horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery earlywarning, 3: Hubbert’s production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert’s model wasrun for the period of 6000 BC–3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range1840–2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7–3.1million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35–1.46 million tonne have already been mined.The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027–2038, with the bestestimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from allmodels converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversiblelosses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply.
The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.
The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.
The Limits to Growth standard run scenario produced 40 years ago continues to align well with historical data that has been updated in this paper, following a 30-year comparison by the author. The scenario results in collapse of the global economy and environment, and subsequently the population. Although the modelled fall in population occurs after about 2030 – with death rates reversing contemporary trends and rising from 2020 onward – the general onset of collapse first appears at about 2015 when per capita industrial output begins a sharp decline. Given this imminent timing, a further issue this paper raises is whether the current economic difficulties of the global finan cial crisis are potentially related to mechanisms of breakdown in the Limits to Growth standard run scenario. In particular, contemporary peak oil issues and analysis of net energy, or energy return on (energy) invested, support the Limits to Growth modelling of resource constraints underlying the collapse, despite obvious financial problems associated with debt.
Global aluminum consumption has exhibited significant growth in recent years, due to its useful properties. As this will result in a large amount of aluminum accumulation as urban mines, the exploitation of these urban stocks will be an important issue in the future. To examine the recycling potential of urban stocks, a dynamic material flow analysis on aluminum was conducted focusing on Japan, the United States, Europe and China. The concentrations of the alloying elements were also investigated, since carryover of alloying elements during recycling results in off-specification secondary metals and alloys. The recycling of aluminum scrap was optimized from the results of dynamic material flow analysis using multi-material pinch analysis. It was estimated that Japan, the United States, Europe and China have the potential to reduce their primary aluminum consumption to 60%, 65%, 30% and 85% of their present levels, respectively. In 2050, it is estimated that 11400 kt of primary aluminum will be required among the four countries, while 12400 kt of obsolete scrap will not be able to be recycled due to high concentrations of alloying elements.
Aluminum demand in Japan has grown significantly during the last few decades. For most uses, small amounts of other metals are added to the primary aluminum to make harder alloys, which are classified by the nature and concentrations of their alloying elements. Aluminum scraps from end-of-life products, which are used as raw materials for secondary aluminum, are often mixtures of several alloys. Therefore, not only the amount of scrap but also the concentrations of their alloying elements must be taken into account when assessing the maximum recycle rate of aluminum scraps. This paper reports a dynamic substance flow analysis of aluminum and its alloying elements in Japan, focusing on the alloying elements Si, Fe, Cu and Mn. We devised eight categories of aluminum end uses and 16 types of aluminum alloys. The amount of each alloy in each end-use category was estimated from statistical data. We then estimated future quantities of discarded aluminum in each of the eight categories using the population balance model. At the same time, we calculated the concentrations of the alloying elements in each of the end uses. It was estimated that the amount of aluminum recovered in Japan would be about 1800 kt in 2050, which is 2.12 times that recovered in 1990. Calculated concentrations of alloying elements in aluminum scraps showed good correlation with those of the measured data.
The supply of some natural resources is unlikely to keep pace with the increasing demands of a growing population. New technologies must be based on abundant materials if we are to achieve sustainable development.
Dynamic stocks and flows analysis was applied to the anthropogenic aluminum cycle in Italy in order to detect and quantify metal flows and in-use stocks over the years 1947-2009. The model utilized a top-down approach, including data for production, consumption, loss, and trade flows of aluminum. Seven end-use markets were considered, namely buildings and construction, transportation, consumer durables, machinery and equipment, electrical engineering, containers and packaging, and miscellaneous appliance types. The results of this dynamic stocks and flows analysis model quantified the contemporary anthropogenic reservoirs (or in-use stocks) of aluminum at about 320 kg per capita, mainly embedded within the transportation and building and construction sectors. Cumulative in-use stock represents approximately 11 years of supply at current usage rates (about 20 Mt versus 1.7 Mt/year), implying significant potential for recycling in the future as this stock comes out of use. Flow analysis revealed that Italy imports mainly unwrought aluminum and exports final products, while the main material losses occur during alumina refining and collection of old scrap: specifically, containers and packaging have the highest old scrap generation rate, but for the lowest recovery rate (50%). Increasing support to collection of scrap and initiatives oriented to aluminum recovery specifically would allow Italy to increase its reliance on domestic material, and may also allow a decline of the country import-dependence on primary sources. The dynamic stocks and flows model created here provides a quantitative historical record of the aluminum required by Italian society during important periods of development and provides guidance for future decision-making around the use of domestic secondary resources.
This paper analyses the anthropogenic stocks and flows of aluminum in mainland China from 1950 to 2009 using time-series data for mining, production, fabrication, manufacturing, trade, and loss rates, and applies a dynamic top-down method to model scrap generation. Results show that growth rates of all flows increased from decade to decade, with 75% of most of the flows taking place in the last two decades. Of the 230 Tg aluminum entering China's anthroposphere, only 34% accumulates in in-use stock, and China's per-capita in-use stock (58 kg) in 2009 is 12% of the per-capita in-use stock in 2006 in the United States (490 kg). In addition, the share of secondary aluminum in the production of unwrought aluminum was less than 25% after 2000. These results imply that China's in-use stock of aluminum is still too “young” and small to generate high quantities of aluminum scrap for domestic secondary aluminum production. Because of this, China still depends mainly upon primary aluminum. From the 1980s to the period of 1990 to 2009, China changed from a net exporter of raw materials into a net importer and from a net importer of manufactured products into a net exporter. In 2009, China's static depletion time of bauxite was less than 15 years. Given the potential to increase its in-use stock, a secure supply of bauxite may become a challenge for China in the near future. Three dynamics driving China's rapid increase of primary aluminum production (PAP) were identified, and their impacts from 1991 to 2009 were quantified. The first, demand for aluminum by domestic in-use stock, was the most significant factor driving China's PAP increase. The second dynamic, China's net export of aluminum in the metallic form, became an important factor in stimulating PAP's increase in the 2000s. Lastly, the impact of losses to the environment in the metallic form on PAP is substantial and stays that way throughout time. Minimizing losses represents an opportunity to offset some demand.
The easy mineral resources, the least expensive to extract and process, have been mostly exploited and depleted. There are plenty of minerals left to extract, but at higher costs and with increasing difficulties. The effects of depletion take different forms and one may be the economic crisis that is gripping the world system. And depletion is not the only problem. Mining has a dark side—pollution—that takes many forms and delivers many consequences, including climate change. The world we have been accustomed to, so far, was based on cheap mineral resources and on the ability of the ecosystem to absorb pollution without generating damage to human beings. Both conditions are rapidly disappearing. Having thoroughly plundered planet Earth, we are entering a new world.
Industrial assets or fixed capital stocks are at the core of the transition to a low-carbon economy. They represent substantial accumulations of capital, bulk materials, and critical metals. Their lifetime determines the potential for material recycling and how fast they can be replaced by new, more efficient facilities. Their efficiency determines the coupling between useful output and energy and material throughput. A sound understanding of the economic and physical properties of fixed capital stocks is essential to anticipating the long-term environmental and economic consequences of the new energy future. We identify substantial overlap in the way stocks are modeled in national accounting, dynamic material flow analysis, dynamic input-output (I/O) analysis, and life cycle assessment (LCA) and we merge these concepts into a common framework for modeling fixed capital stocks. We demonstrate the usefulness of the framework for simultaneous accounting of capital and material stocks and for consequential LCA. We apply the framework to design a demand-driven dynamic I/O model with dynamic capital stocks, and we synthesize both the marginal and attributional matrix of technical coefficients (A-matrix) from detailed process inventories of fixed assets of different age cohorts and technologies. The stock modeling framework allows researchers to identify and exploit synergies between different model families under the umbrella of socioeconomic metabolism.
Light-weighting of passenger cars using high-strength steel or aluminum is a common emissions mitigation strategy. We provide a first estimate of the global impact of light-weighting by material substitution on GHG emissions from passenger cars and the steel and aluminum industries until 2050. We develop a dynamic stock model of the global car fleet and combine it with a dynamic MFA of the associated steel, aluminum, and energy supply industries. We propose four scenarios for substitution of conventional steel with high-strength steel and aluminum at different rates over the period 2015-2050. We show that light-weighting of passenger cars can become a 'gigaton solution': Between 2015 and 2050, persistent light-weighting of passenger cars can, under optimal conditions, lead to cumulative GHG emissions savings of 9-18 gigatons CO2-eq. compared to development business-as-usual. Annual savings can be up to 1 gigaton per year. After 2030, enhanced material recycling can lead to further reductions: closed-loop metal recycling in the automotive sector may reduce cumulative emissions by another 4-6 gigatons CO2-eq. The effectiveness of emissions mitigation by material substitution significantly depends on how the recycling system evolves. At present, policies focusing on tailpipe emissions and life cycle assessments of individual cars do not consider this important effect.
The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply.
Aluminum recycling currently occurs in a cascading fashion, where some alloys, used in a limited number of applications, absorb most of the end-of-life scrap. An expected increase in scrap supply in coming decades necessitates restructuring of the aluminum cycle to open up new recycling paths for alloys and avoid a potential scrap surplus. This paper explores various interventions in end of life management and recycling of automotive aluminum, using a dynamic substance flow analysis model of aluminum and its alloying elements with resolution on component and alloy level (vehicle-component-alloy-element model). It was found that increased component dismantling before vehicle shredding can be an effective, so far underestimated, intervention in the medium term, especially if combined with development of safety-relevant components such as wheels from secondary material. In the long term, automatic alloy sorting technologies are most likely required, but could at the same time reduce the need for magnesium removal in refining. Cooperation between the primary and secondary aluminum industries, the automotive industry and end-of-life vehicle dismantlers is therefore essential to ensure continued recycling of automotive aluminum and its alloying elements.
Production of the vital metal will top out and decline within decades, according to a new model that may hold lessons for other resources.
A dynamic analysis of anthropogenic aluminum stocks and flows in the U.S. from 1900 to 2009 has been conducted. Key findings include (1) historical cumulative aluminum input into the U.S. anthroposphere amounts to 438 Tg, with only about 35% of it accumulating in domestic in-use stock; (2) less than 5% of most flows take place before 1950, while more than 50% of them happen after 1990; (3) flows into fabrication, manufacturing, and use processes, as well as trade flows, are vulnerable to energy crises; basically, after an energy crisis, the U.S. tends to produce less primary aluminum, less semis, as well as less final products, and therefore import less bauxite and alumina but import more unwrought aluminum and final products; (4) the U.S. has been a net importer of aluminum from the life cycle perspective, with its total annual net import increasing from 1945 to 2005; (5) as a result of the continuous increase of net import, total domestic stock of aluminum in the U.S. dramatically increases in the period of 1945–2009 and amounts to 316 Tg in 2009, about nine times of that in 1900; (6) in-use stock comprises about 48% of total domestic stock in 2009 and is dominated by two sectors, Buildings and Construction (32%) and Transportation (35%); (7) total per-capita stock in use of aluminum keeps increasing until 2009 and currently amounts to 490 kg; (8) per-capita stock of aluminum in Transportation sector increases substantially after 1990s because of the light-weighting of automobiles, while that in the Buildings and Construction and Electrical Engineering sectors seems have reached a saturation level after 2005.
Industrialization and urbanization in the developing world have boosted steel demand during the recent two decades. Reliable estimates on how much steel is required for high economic development are necessary to better understand the future challenges for employment, resource management, capacity planning, and climate change mitigation within the steel sector. During their use phase, steel-containing products provide service to people, and the size of the in-use stock of steel can serve as an indicator of the total service level. We apply dynamic material flow analysis to estimate in-use stocks of steel in about 200 countries and identify patterns of how stocks evolve over time. Three different models of the steel cycle are applied and a full uncertainty analysis is conducted to obtain reliable stock estimates for the period 1700–2008.Per capita in-use stocks in countries with a long industrial history, e.g., the U.S, the UK, or Germany, are between 11 and 16 tons, and stock accumulation is slowing down or has come to a halt. Stocks in countries that industrialized rather recently, such as South Korea or Portugal, are between 6 and 10 tons per capita and grow fast. In several countries, per capita in-use stocks of steel have saturated or are close to saturation. We identify the range of saturation to be 13 ± 2 tons for the total per capita stock, which includes 10 ± 2 tons for construction, 1.3 ± 0.5 tons for machinery, 1.5 ± 0.7 tons for transportation, and 0.6 ± 0.2 tons for appliances and containers. The time series for the stocks and the saturation levels can be used to estimate future steel production and scrap supply.
Material cycles have become increasingly coupled and interconnected in a globalizing era. While material flow analysis (MFA) has been widely used to characterize stocks and flows along technological life cycle within a specific geographical area, trade networks among individual cycles have remained largely unexplored. Here we developed a trade-linked multilevel MFA model to map the contemporary global journey of anthropogenic aluminum. We demonstrate that the anthropogenic aluminum cycle depends substantially on international trade of aluminum in all forms and becomes highly interconnected in nature. While the Southern hemisphere is the main primary resource supplier, aluminum production and consumption concentrate in the Northern hemisphere, where we also find the largest potential for recycling. The more developed countries tend to have a substantial and increasing presence throughout the stages after bauxite refining and possess highly consumption-based cycles, thus maintaining advantages both economically and environmentally. A small group of countries play a key role in the global redistribution of aluminum and in the connectivity of the network, which may render some countries vulnerable to supply disruption. The model provides potential insights to inform government and industry policies in resource criticality, supply chain security, value chain management, and cross-boundary environmental impacts mitigation.
According to industry statistics, the U.S. passed the peak in its rate of oil discovery about 1956, and the peak in its proved reserves at about the end of 1960. During the post-war period from 1945 to 1956, the number of new- field wildcat wells required to make one profitable oil or gas discovery increased from 26 to 52--a 50% reduction in the effectiveness of exploration efforts. The history of petroleum geology began with formulations of the anticlinal accumulation of oil by 3 different geologists as early as 1861--within 18 mo. after the Drake discovery. During the next half century this basic idea underwent many vicissitudes, because oil was found in a great variety of structural positions. The period of 1910-1935, which can be regarded as the ''Golden Age'' of petroleum geology, was a period of fundamental and provocative inquiry into basic questions of origin, migration, and entrapment of oil and gas. Then followed a period of stagnation based on the illusion that the answers to fundamental problems were known. As a consequence, the practice of petroleum geology degenerated into deadening routines of putting rock geometry on maps, and drilling the geometric highs. (45 refs.)
A systems dynamics model was developed to assess the planetary boundary for P supply in relation to use by human society. It is concluded that present day use rates and poor recycling rates of P are unsustainable at timescales beyond 100+a. The predictions made suggest that P will become a scarce and expensive material in the future. The study shows clearly that market mechanisms alone will not be able to secure an efficient use before a large part of the resource will have been allowed to dissipate into the natural environment. It is suggested that population size management and effective recycling measures must be planned long term to avoid unpleasant consequences of hunger and necessary corrections imposed on society by mass balance and thermodynamics.
Forecasts up to 2050 are made of consumption of the following metals: Fe, At, Cu, Mn, Zn, Cr, Ph, Ni, Si, Sn, rare earths, Me, Li, Sb, W, Ag, Co, In, An, Ga, Pt and Pd. The forecasts are based on the linear decoupling model of the relation between per capita metal consumption and per capita GDP. The models of each metal are applied to the economic development model of BRICs and G6 countries. According to these forecasts, the overall consumption of metals in 2050 will be five times greater than the current levels, and demand for metals, such as Au, Ag, Cu, Ni, Sn, Zn, Ph and Sb, is expected to be several times greater than the amount of their respective reserves. Demand for Fe and Pt, which is considered to be optimistic about the resource exhaustion, will also exceed the current reserves. Urgent measures are needed to find alternatives from common resources and to shift into sound materials circulation society.
A comprehensive annual cycle for stocks and flows of zinc, based on data from circa 1994 and incorporating information on extraction, processing, fabrication, use, discard, recycling, and landfilling, was carried out at three discrete governmental unit levels—54 countries and 1 country group (which together comprise essentially all global anthropogenic zinc stocks and flows), nine world regions, and the planet as a whole. All of these cycles are available in an electronic supplement to this article, which thus provides a metadata set on zinc flows for the use of industrial ecology researchers. A “best estimate” global zinc cycle was constructed to resolve aggregation discrepancies. Among the most interesting results are the following: (1) The accumulation ratio, that is, addition to in-use stock as a function of zinc entering use, is positive and large (2/3 of zinc entering use is added to stock) (country, regional, and global levels); (2) secondary input ratios (fractions of input to fabrication that are from recycled zinc) and domestic recycling percentages (fractions of discarded zinc that are recycled) differ among regions by as much as a factor of six (regional level); (3) worldwide, about 40% of the zinc that was discarded in various forms was recovered and reused or recycled (global level); (4) zinc cycles can usefully be characterized by a set of ratios, including, notably, the utilization efficiency (the ratio of manufacturing waste to manufacturing output: 0.090) and the prompt scrap ratio (new scrap as a fraction of manufacturing input: 0.070) (global level). Because capturable discards are a significant fraction of primary zinc inputs, if a larger proportion of discards were recaptured, extraction requirements would decrease significantly (global level). The results provide a framework for complementary studies in resource stocks, industrial resource utilization, energy consumption, waste management, industrial economics, and environmental impacts.
This paper dynamically analyzes the Japanese material flow of stainless steel. The substance flow analysis of Cr and Ni associated with stainless steel was conducted by classifying the material flow of stainless steel into two main alloy types: ferritic and austenitic. The substance flow covered more than 80% of Cr and Ni consumption in Japan. In mass balances of Cr and Ni, the production of not only stainless steel but also other alloying steels containing Cr and/or Ni was taken into account. The mass balances of three elements (Fe, Cr, and Ni) provided complementary information for confirmation of our estimations. As a result of dynamic analysis, the in-use stock of ferritics and austenitics at the end of the year 2005 was 4Tg and 14Tg, respectively, which converts to 3Tg of Cr and 1Tg of Ni. In addition, the recycling flow was closely analyzed. From the result for the year 2005, the recycling rates as stainless steel scrap were estimated as 21–38% for ferritics and 94–100% for austenitics. The amount of ferritics scrap to be recycled as carbon steel was quantified as well. By comparing our results with those in previous studies, we found that applying parameters obtained in other countries may be misleading, especially in recycling flows.
The rise of China to become world largest iron and steel producer and consumer since the late 1990s can be largely attributed to urbanization, with about 20% of China's steel output used by residential buildings, and about 50% for the construction sector as a whole. Previously, a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model was developed to analyze the dynamics of the rural and the urban housing systems in China. This model is expanded here to specifically analyze iron and steel demand and scrap availability from the housing sector. The evolution of China's housing stock and related steel is simulated from 1900 through 2100. For almost all scenarios, the simulation results indicate a strong drop in steel demand for new housing construction over the next decades, due to the expected lengthening of the – presently extremely short – life span of residential buildings. From an environmental as well as a resource conservation point of view, this is a reassuring conclusion. Calculations for the farther future indicate that the demand for steel will not just decrease but will rather oscillate: the longer the life spans of buildings, the stronger the oscillation. The downside of this development would be the overcapacities in steel production. A scenario with slightly lower life spans but a strong emphasis on secondary steel production might reduce the oscillation at moderate environmental costs.
An ``anthrobiogeochemical'' copper cycle, from Earth's core to the Moon,
combining natural biogeochemical and human anthropogenic stocks and
flows is derived for the mid-1990s. Although some aspects of the
quantification have moderate to high uncertainty, the anthropogenic
mining, manufacturing, and use flows (on the order of 104 Gg
Cu/yr) clearly dominate the cycle. In contrast, the natural repositories
of Earth's core, mantle, and crust, and of the Moon, hold much higher
stocks of copper (>1010 Gg) than do anthropogenic
repositories (<106 Gg). The results indicate that the
present anthropogenic rate of copper extraction exceeds the natural rate
of renewal by ~106.
We present a dynamic model of global copper stocks and flows which allows a detailed analysis of recycling efficiencies, copper stocks in use, and dissipated and landfilled copper. The model is based on historical mining and refined copper production data (1910-2010) enhanced by a unique data set of recent global semifinished goods production and copper end-use sectors provided by the copper industry. To enable the consistency of the simulated copper life cycle in terms of a closed mass balance, particularly the matching of recycled metal flows to reported historical annual production data, a method was developed to estimate the yearly global collection rates of end-of-life (postconsumer) scrap. Based on this method, we provide estimates of 8 different recycling indicators over time. The main indicator for the efficiency of global copper recycling from end-of-life (EoL) scrap-the EoL recycling rate-was estimated to be 45% on average, ± 5% (one standard deviation) due to uncertainty and variability over time in the period 2000-2010. As uncertainties of specific input data-mainly concerning assumptions on end-use lifetimes and their distribution-are high, a sensitivity analysis with regard to the effect of uncertainties in the input data on the calculated recycling indicators was performed. The sensitivity analysis included a stochastic (Monte Carlo) uncertainty evaluation with 10(5) simulation runs.
A dynamic material flow model was developed to simulate the evolution of global aluminum stocks in geological reserve and anthropogenic reservoir from 1900 to 2010 on a country level. The contemporary global aluminum stock in use (0.6 Gt or 90 kg/capita) has reached about 10% of that in known bauxite reserves and represents an embodied energy amount that is equivalent to three quarters of the present global annual electricity consumption. The largest proportions of in-use stock are located in the U.S. (28%), China (15%), Japan (7%), and Germany (6%) and in sectors of building and construction (40%) and transportation (27%). Industrialized countries have shown similar patterns of aluminum in-use stock growth: once the per-capita stocks have reached a threshold level of 50 kg, they kept a near linear annual growth of 5-10 kg/capita; no clear signs of saturation can be observed yet. The present aluminum in-use stocks vary widely across countries: approximately 100-600 kg/capita in industrialized countries and below 100 kg/capita in developing countries. The growing global aluminum in-use stock has significant implications on future aluminum demand and provides important recycling opportunities that will be critical for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in the aluminum industry in the coming decades.
The stocks and flows of the global silver, aluminum, chromium, copper,
iron, nickel, lead, and zinc cycles quantify over 98% of the total mass
of metal mobilized by human activity at the turn of the 21st century.
Iron and aluminum, representing >95% by mass of all metals mined, are
for the first time assessed for global anthropogenic emissions to air,
water, and land. Anthropogenic activity has significantly perturbed
Earth's natural biogeochemical cycles, attested by the "grand nutrient"
cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, and sulfur and further revealed
here by the "anthrobiogeochemical" cycles of metals. We demonstrate that
humans today mobilize about half the metal mass of these global
elemental metal cycles.
Australia is a major supplier of minerals globally, but the country’s ability to meet both projections for future demand and sustainability goals is hampered by a range of environmental and social issues associated with traditional modes of minerals production. At a time when society’s expectations for the environmental and social performance of companies are becoming more stringent, mineral production in Australia has become more difficult and expensive - issues that are often disguised by (and overlooked as a result of) high resource prices and an outwardly buoyant economy. Difficulty and expense are characterised not by the absence of resources, but by declining ore grades, substantially increasing mine waste, rising energy consumption, and falling multi-factor productivity. Together, social changes and production challenges are reinforcing the recognition that business as usual cannot deliver on the sustainability imperative. Technological development has been an important focus in seeking to address many of the challenges facing the Australian minerals industry, but this alone has not been adequate, and may not be the panacea of the future. Research exploring the future of minerals production and its implications for society and the economy must be accompanied by foresight into the long-term strategic challenges, future scenarios, social, economic and regional contexts where these implications will play out.
Steel production accounts for 25% of industrial carbon emissions. Long-term forecasts of steel demand and scrap supply are needed to develop strategies for how the steel industry could respond to industrialization and urbanization in the developing world while simultaneously reducing its environmental impact, and in particular, its carbon footprint. We developed a dynamic stock model to estimate future final demand for steel and the available scrap for 10 world regions. Based on evidence from developed countries, we assumed that per capita in-use stocks will saturate eventually. We determined the response of the entire steel cycle to stock saturation, in particular the future split between primary and secondary steel production. During the 21st century, steel demand may peak in the developed world, China, the Middle East, Latin America, and India. As China completes its industrialization, global primary steel production may peak between 2020 and 2030 and decline thereafter. We developed a capacity model to show how extensive trade of finished steel could prolong the lifetime of the Chinese steelmaking assets. Secondary steel production will more than double by 2050, and it may surpass primary production between 2050 and 2060: the late 21st century can become the steel scrap age.
The year 2008 has witnessed unprecedented fluctuations in the oil prices. During the first three-quarters, the oil price abruptly increased to 50/bbl by the end of the year losing more than 64% of the maximum price in less than three months period. The supply of crude oil to the international market oscillated to follow suite according to the law of supply and demand. This behavior affected oil production in all exporting countries. Nonetheless, the demand for crude oil in some developing countries, such as China and India, has increased in the past few years because of the rapid growth in the transportation sector in addition to the absence of viable economic alternatives for fossil fuel. The rapid growth in fuel demand has forced the policy makers worldwide to include uninterrupted crude oil supply as a vital priority in their economic and strategic planning.
A dynamic material flow analysis model is developed to quantify aluminum in-use stocks and old scrap recycling and recovery in the United States for the period of 1900 to 2007. The total in-use aluminum stock in 2007 is estimated as 93Â million metric tons, which represents approximately 34% of the cumulative apparent consumption since 1900. Alternately, since 1900 nearly 40% of the cumulative discarded aluminum has not been recycled for domestic use in the U.S. or for export to foreign consumers. Statistical time series analysis is used to explore the relationship between model results of in-use stocks and gross domestic product (GDP). Unlike most previous studies of material consumption and economic activity, which ignore the statistical properties of time series data to the detriment of model estimation and inference, data stationarity is explicitly evaluated through unit root testing and model specification is adjusted accordingly. The annual percentage change in GDP is found to have a large and significant association with the annual percentage change in net additions to in-use stocks. Model sensitivity and uncertainty are quantified through the application of the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test and alternate specifications of product lifetime probability density functions.
Characterization of the in-use stocks of a resource provides a perspective on the relationship between the amount of materials
providing services and the state of development of a country or region. In this regard, we have performed what we believe
to be the first aluminum in-use stock study for a developing country: China in 2000 and 2005. We found the in-use stocks to
be 29 Tg Al (2000) and 49 Tg Al (2005), or 23 kg Al/capita (2000) and 37 kg Al/ capita (2005). These are lower limits because
data were not available for all aluminum-containing products. The 2005 per-capita figure is roughly half that of the global
average in-use aluminum stock, and about one-tenth that of highly developed countries such as Japan and the United States.
Key wordsBuildings-Infrastructure-Material flow analysis-Recycling-Transportation
The surge in prices and global demand for minerals and metals in the 2004–08 boom reawakened fears about the longer-term availability
of minerals. Some commentators have extended the petroleum industry's debate about ‘peak oil’ to the non-fuel minerals industry.
The arguments are discussed with the conclusion that peak modelling is far too deterministic and simplistic to capture the
subtleties of all the factors impinging on future supplies of mineral products. That does not mean that we should be complacent
about the future availability of any mineral. Rather, it points to a genuinely multi-disciplinary approach to forecasting,
and one that properly recognises all the inherent uncertainties.
KeywordsMetals–Mineral resources–Mineral reserves–Non-fuel minerals
The increased urgency of dealing with mitigation of the looming climate change has sparked renewed interest in the nuclear energy option. There exists a substantial stream of research on the amount of embodied energy and greenhouse gas emissions associated with nuclear generated electricity. While conventional fossil fuelled power plants cause emissions almost exclusively from the plant site, the majority of greenhouse gas emissions in the nuclear fuel cycle are caused in processing stages upstream and downstream from the plant. This paper distils the findings from a comprehensive literature review of energy and greenhouse gas emissions in the nuclear fuel cycle and determines some of the causes for the widely varying results.The most popular reactor types, LWR and HWR, need between 0.1 and 0.3 kWhth, and on average about 0.2 kWhth for every kWh of electricity generated. These energy intensities translate into greenhouse gas intensities for LWR and HWR of between 10 and 130 g CO2-e/kWhel, with an average of 65 g CO2-e/kWhel.While these greenhouse gases are expectedly lower than those of fossil technologies (typically 600–1200 g CO2-e/kWhel), they are higher than reported figures for wind turbines and hydroelectricity (around 15–25 g CO2-e/kWhel) and in the order of, or slightly lower than, solar photovoltaic or solar thermal power (around 90 g CO2-e/kWhel).
A systematic framework of indicators for sustainability is presented. In our approach there is an emphasis on societal activities that affect nature and on the internal societal resource use, as opposed to environmental quality indicators. In this way the indicators may give a warning signal to an unsustainable use of resources early in the chain from causes in societal activities to environmental effects. The aim is that these socio-ecological indicators shall serve as a tool in planning and decision-making processes at various administrative levels in society. The formulation of the indicators is made with respect to four principles of sustainability, which lead to four complementary sets of indicators. The first deals with the societal use of lithospheric material. The second deals with emissions of compounds produced in society. The third set of indicators concerns societal manipulation of nature and the long-term productivity of ecosystems. Finally, the fourth set deals with the efficiency of the internal societal resource use, which includes indicators for a just distribution of resources.
Material flow analysis is an analysis of the flow of a material into and out of a particular region. The flow analysis also includes estimation of energy expended and of environmental emissions at each stage of the material life cycle, i.e. from extraction, processing, consumption and recycling to disposal. This analysis informs resource policy, energy planning, environmental and waste management. This paper reports on a historical material flow analysis of the world iron ore and steel industry in which the material flow of iron ore and of crude steel products are quantified for the period from 1950 to 2005. On the basis of this analysis, the future production of iron and steel for the world is estimated. The historical analysis shows that the world iron ore production increased from 274 million tons (Mt) in 1950 to 1554 Mt in 2005, whereas the steel production increased from 207 to 1259 Mt. In addition, it is found that at the current level of production the world's identified iron ore reserves containing 230 billion tons of iron would last for nearly 50 years. Global CO2 emissions from steel production from the different manufacturing routes are estimated to be 3169 Mt from approximately 1781 Mt of steel production by 2020, whereas the specific energy consumption is estimated to be 14.43