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Why Do Northeast Asians Win So Few Nobel Prizes?

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Abstract

It is our argument that as Northeast Asian countries are lower on the q index than European countries, yet higher in intelligence, this would assist in explaining the surprisingly poor representation of Northeast Asian countries in terms of original scientific achievement. However, there are a number of alternative explanations that need to be discussed. First, it might be argued that until around World War II the standard of living was significantly lower in Japan than in Western Europe, and this would explain the poor representation of the Japanese in terms of Nobel Prizes and Fields Medals. However, this raises the question of why the Japanese should have had a lower standard of living if they had a significantly higher average IQ. A parsimonious explanation is that they were less innovative than Europeans due, in part, to lower q. Moreover, since around 1970 or earlier, the Japanese standard of living has equalized with and exceeded that of Western Europe, but even since this time, Japan has lower scientific achievement. The most frequently cited 10 scholars in 21 scientific fields in 2014 (210 in total) include only seven Japanese, while there were 18 British and 12 French scholars (Thomson-Reuter, 2015). Since the Japanese population (126 million) is more than the sum of those of the UK and France (120 million), Japan produces less than one-fourth the number of prominent scholars.
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Comprehensive Psychology
Why do Northeast Asians win so few Nobel Prizes?
1
Kenya Kura
Faculty of Economics and Information, Gifu Shotoku Gakuen University, Gifu, Japan
Jan te Nijenhuis
Work and Organizational Psychology, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Edward Dutton
Cultural Anthropology, University of Oulu, Finland
Abstract
Most scienti c discoveries have originated from Europe, and Europeans have
won 20 times more Nobel Prizes than have Northeast Asians. We argue that this
is explained not by IQ, but by interracial personality di erences, underpinned by
di erences in gene distribution. In particular, the variance in scienti c achieve-
ment is explained by di erences in inquisitiveness (DRD4 7-repeat), psychologi-
cal stability (5HTTLPR long form), and individualism (mu-opioid receptor gene;
OPRM1 G allele ). Northeast Asians tend to be lower in these psychological traits,
which we argue are necessary for exceptional scienti c accomplishments. Since
these traits comprise a positive matrix, we constructed a q index (measuring cu-
riosity) from these gene frequencies among world populations. It is found that
both IQ scores and q index contribute signi cantly to the number of per capita
Nobel Prizes.
From ancient natural philosophy to modern physics, the history of science has been
dominated by Europeans. It would not be controversial to state that the most distin-
guished scholars in the world post-1900 have been Nobel laureates and Fields med-
alists. Table 1 shows the number these prominent people by racial category, which is
taken from Lynn (2007 ), and here extended to 2014. Table 1 shows that Europeans have
won 0.6 Nobel Prizes and Fields Medals per million, whilst the Northeast Asians have
won only 0.03 per million, which is about one twentieth of the Europeans’ achievement.
However, Lynn and Vanhanen (2002, 2006 , 2012 ) reported that Northeast Asians
(Chinese, Koreans, and Japanese) have average IQs of 105. Initially, their national IQ esti-
mates were severely criticized as “meaningless” or “de cient” ( Barnett & Williams, 2004 ;
Volken, 2003 ). However, the national IQs have been shown to correlate with striking con-
sistency with other international achievement test scores such as PISA (Program for In-
ternational Student Assessment; Rindermann, 2007 ; Lynn & Mikk, 2009; OECD, 2015 )
and also predict social phenomena, such as democracy, standard of living, and the prev-
alence of sexual diseases ( Rindermann, 2008a , 2008b ; Rindermann & Meisenberg, 2009 ).
China, Korea, and Japan have been reported to display not only higher national
IQs ( Lynn, 2006 ) than Europeans, but also international student assessments like PISA
have consistently shown that they outscore European countries in school achievement
(e.g., Lynn & Meisenberg, 2010; OECD, 2015 ). These factors being so, we would expect
Northeast Asians to be excellent scholars, meaning that they would dominate scienti c
achievement measures such as Nobel Prizes. Clearly, this is not the case, and in this arti-
cle we attempt to understand why not. We found that original scienti c achievement is
predicted both by extremely high IQ and by curiosity (the q index), and that Northeast
Asians score lower in the latter than do Europeans, based on genetic measures.
Northeast Asians as Overachievers
We have shown that there are very few distinguished scholars in Northeast Asian coun-
tries in the previous section; even so, Northeast Asians outperform Europeans as stu-
1 Address correspondence to Kenya Kura, 1-38 Nakauzura, Gifu-city, Japan or e-mail ( kurakenya@gmail.com ) .
Ammons Scienti c
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PSYCHOLOGY
2015, Volume 4, Article 15
ISSN 2165-2228
DOI: 10.2466/04.17.CP.4.15
© Kenya Kura, Jan te Nijenhuis, and
Edward Dutton 2015
Attribution-NonCommercial-
NoDerivs CC-BY-NC-ND
Received December 4, 2014
Accepted August 14, 2015
Published September 1, 2015
CITATION
Kure, K., te Nijenhuis, J., &
Dutton, E. (2015) Why do
Northeast Asians win so few
Nobel Prizes? Comprehensive
Psychology, 4, 15.
Northeast Asians, Nobel Prizes / K. Kura, et al.
22015, Volume 4, Article 15
Comprehensive Psychology
dents. Unz (2012 ) reported that although the Asian
(meaning “Northeast Asian”) population is about 5% in
the U.S. in 2009, 28% of the top 0.5% of SAT takers were
Asian Americans, which implies that Northeast Asians
are more than ve times overrepresented at the high-
est achievement student category. Moreover, during the
13 years after 2000, the U.S. Mathematics Olympiads
champions have been 58% Asian. Also, the recipients
of the Westinghouse-Intel Science Talent Search dur-
ing 2002–2011 are 60% Northeast Asians ( Unz, 2012 ).
These numbers are much more than expected from the
Northeast Asian IQ of 105. If we take a White popula-
tion, their top 1, 0.1, and 0.01% should be equivalent to,
respectively, 2.33, 0.29, and 0.04% for Northeast Asians.
However, as we have seen, Northeast Asians are 5 to 10
times overrepresented in elite universities and 10 times
overrepresented in various student awards. This im-
plies that Northeast Asians are overachievers relative to
their IQs.
Let us make a comparison with the situation of
Jews in the United States. Their reported IQ is about
115 ( Lynn, 2011 ), which is 1 standard deviation higher
than gentile whites. They consist of 2.2% of the popula-
tion, but 25% of the Ivy League university student body,
27% of the professors in law schools, 50% of the West-
inghouse Talent Search in the 20th century, and 44% of
Nobel laureates ( Hu, 2011 ). In Germany before WWII,
a Jewish population that was 0.8% of the total German
population won 24% of the Nobel Prizes, about 30 times
more frequently than gentiles ( Lynn, 2011 ). Jews are
very good students and at the same time good scholars.
Conversely, Northeast Asians are exceptional students,
but they make up only 8–9% of university professors
in 2011 (National Center for Educational Statistics) and
less than 5% of Nobel laureates.
Genetic Differences Among Populations
One possible way to investigate this question would be
to use the research ndings from previous international
comparison of national personality (McCrae, 2002;
McRae, Terracciano, et al ., 2005; Schmitt, Allik, McRae,
& Benet-Martinez, 2007 ; Bartram, 2013 ). This method is
in line with Dutton, te Nijenhuis, and Roivainen (2014 ),
who observed that the reason for fewer Nobel Prizes
among Finns is caused by their smaller standard devi-
ation in IQ and higher Conscientiousness and Agree-
ableness. However, we did not explicitly include the
results from international personality research, since
the national personality scores of the four research arti-
cles above did not correlate with each other to any sub-
stantial extent. In addition, the available research on
national di erences in personality is highly problem-
atic. For example, Schmitt, et al . (2007 ) drew upon small
samples (sometimes of under 30), making it di cult to
make con dent comparisons; it uses non-comparable
samples (“community based” in Finland and Mexico
and “students” or “mixed” in others, and the students
were not age-controlled), it su ers from the problem of
cultural di erences a ecting how the questions were
answered (e.g., “worrying a lot” may be interpreted
di erently in di erent cultures), and it reaches conclu-
sions that are incongruous with the body of research on
racial di erences in personality (e.g., Eap, DeGarmo,
Kawakami, Hara, Hall, & Teten, 2008 ), such as that the
Japanese are low and sub-Saharan Africans are high on
Conscientiousness.
Instead, we used the di erences in gene frequencies
which are supposed to in uence behavioral di erences
such as novelty-seeking, social anxiety, and fear of so-
cial exclusion. In this way, we have solid underpinnings
for behavioral traits that do not depend on the assump-
tions of cultural di erences.
Novelty-seeking
To become a successful scientist, one has to be inter-
ested in something novel, which requires intellectual
curiosity. This kind of mentality is not required in stu-
dent life, where theories and relevant facts are already
systematically presented in textbooks. Rote memory
is not, however, su cient to become a good scientist.
Some kind of novel perspective is necessary to extend
or replace established ways of thinking. Certainly, it has
been shown that academics who make an original con-
tribution to their discipline, and especially creative sci-
TABLE 1
Population Size (Millions) for 1950 (and 2000), Nobel Prizewinners, and Fields Medalists, and
Total Achievements per 1 Million, 1906–2014 (from Lynn, 2007, updated)
Prizes
Population (millions)
African European Northeast Asian South Asian & North African
500 (800) 1,000 1,000 (1,500) 1000 (2,200)
Nobel Science 0 413 26 6
Nobel Literature 1 98 4 4
Nobel Economics 0 52 0 1
Fields: Mathematics 0 63 5 3
Total 1 626 35 14
Prizes per million 0.002 0.626 0.035 0.014
Northeast Asians, Nobel Prizes / K. Kura, et al.
32015, Volume 4, Article 15
Comprehensive Psychology
entists, are high in Extraversion, an aspect of which is
novelty-seeking ( Simonton, 1988 , 2009 ).
Increased dopamine release at synapses in the me-
solimbic dopamine system mediates behavioral rein-
forcement, feelings of pleasure, and behavioral acti-
vation (this is the system that mediates the e ects of
psychostimulants like amphetamine and cocaine). The
gene DRD4 codes for the D4 type dopamine receptors
in the central nervous system. There are many di erent
DRD4 alleles coding di erent numbers of 48 base pairs
from two repeats to 11 repeats. Almost all alleles in East
Asian populations are 2- and 4-repeats, while 7-repeats
are found in about 20–30% of Europeans, Africans, and
Polynesians. Some Amazonian tribes have more than
50% of this allele ( ALFRED, 2015 ).
A longer repeat means a smaller number of dopa-
mine receptors, hence, more stimuli are necessary for
the carrier to feel satis ed. This makes individuals with
longer repeats more attracted to novel ideas and expe-
riences, which lead to novelty-seeking behavior. Espe-
cially, the 7-repeat allele has been recognized as the gene
for novelty-seeking behavior and impulsivity ( Munafò,
Yalcin, Willis-Owen, & Flint, 2008 ). Around 40,000 years
ago, humans expanded their habitat from the Near East
to Europe, Asia, and eventually the Americas through
Beringia. The tness conferred by this gene should have
been very large for migration since migration distance
is correlated with the frequency of the 7-repeat allele
( Cheng, Burton, Greenberger, & Dmitrieva, 1999 ; Mat-
thews & Butler, 2011 ).
On the other hand, Ding, Chi, Grady, Morishima,
Kidd, Kidd, et al . (2002 ) and Wang, Ding, Flodman,
Kidd, Kidd, Grady, et al . (2004 ) claim that the most fre-
quent 4-repeat allele was the original genotype and that
7-repeat allele emerged about 40,000 years ago after
several mutations and expanded to the whole world.
Moreover, Wang, et al . (2004 ) claimed that the 2-repeat
allele evolved from the 7-repeat allele and expanded on
the Chinese continent. They investigated the LD (Link-
age Disequilibrium) near the gene locus and found that
its frequency increased selectively. As described earlier,
the frequency of the 7-repeat allele is more than 20% in
Europeans, Middle Easterners, Polynesians, and Amer-
indians, but we currently observe this allele frequency
at 0% in China, Korea, and Taiwan, and 1% in Japan.
During the last 30,000 years, the 7-repeat allele may
have been selectively removed from the population,
quite possibly because it disturbs social harmony ( Co-
chran & Harpending, 2009 ).
Social Anxiety, Fear of Exclusion, and
Individualism
To construct a new theory or prove novel ndings, it is
not su cient to have enough curiosity to hit upon a new
idea; a great scientist must also pursue his novel idea
with an independent mindset. In other words, great sci-
entists have to be very independent minded, which is
closely connected with the personality trait of individu-
alism. In this regard, analyses by Simonton (1998 , 2009 )
have found that more original thinkers are moderately
high in aspects of psychopathic personality, such as low
Conscientiousness and low Agreeableness, which they
combine with very high intelligence.
Fincher, et al . (2008) investigated the risks of 10 ma-
jor epidemics and then made an index of such risk fac-
tors in the world. They correlated this lethal epidemic
index and the individualism index explained below and
found that there was a substantial negative correlation
between these two indexes ( r = .69, N = 68). One could
speculate that the risks of these epidemics have shaped
human psychology such that people at higher risk tend
to refrain from contacts with outsiders or foreigners; i.e.,
they are more xenophobic.
A genetic correlate of social anxiety is the long and
short alleles for the serotonin transporter gene 5HTTL-
PR. Long alleles transport serotonin more e ciently,
which stabilize and lessen the anxiety of the carrier. It is
well known that the frequency of the long allele is about
20% in Northeast Asians, while it is about 60% in Euro-
peans. Chiao and Blizinsky (2009 ) reported that there is
a substantial correlation between the risks of those epi-
demic diseases and the frequencies of the short alleles
of 5HTTLPR. They argued that the conclusion of Finch-
er, et al . (2008) on epidemics is mediated by this genet-
ic polymorphism. Their model of causation goes from
the environmental factor to gene frequency of the local
population and to behaviors or culture; in other words,
from plague risks, to more frequent shorter alleles, to
social anxiety and xenophobia.
There has been a report about A118G (OPRM1) as
a genetic basis of the fear of social exclusion. G and A
polymorphisms in this gene regulate μ-opioid receptors.
A study showed that subjects with the G allele showed
stronger unpleasant feelings (based on fMRI) when they
were excluded in ball-toss games ( Way, Taylor, & Eisen-
berger, 2009 ). Furthermore, Way and Lieberman (2010 )
found a correlation between the frequencies of G alleles
in a population and the collectivism of the culture. They
also reported that the G allele frequencies among Asian
populations are in fact much higher than those in Euro-
pean populations. Also, the G allele in rhesus macaques
has been reported to strengthen mother-infant attach-
ment and to be associated with higher oxytocin levels
when lactating ( Barr, Schwandt, Lindell, Higley, Mae-
stripieri, Suomi, & Hellig, 2008 ; Higham, Barr, Ho man,
Mandalaywala, Parker, & Maestripieri, 2011 ) .
Individualism is de ned as an identity focused on
oneself (Hofstede, 2002). One has to decide what should
be valued and hence pursued in life, which often leads
excellent scientists into con ict with fellow researchers
( Eysenck, 1995 ). People high in individualism actively
seek for associations, friendships, and partners in a hor-
Northeast Asians, Nobel Prizes / K. Kura, et al.
42015, Volume 4, Article 15
Comprehensive Psychology
izontal relationship without a strong authority. Europe-
ans score high on individualism, and science requires
this individualistic mindset. When goals are de ned by
the state or the organization one belongs to, it is much
more di cult to pursue private values.
The widely held belief that European societies are in-
dividualistic while Asian societies are collectivist in their
value systems has been veri ed empirically. Individual-
istic mentality has been indexed by the Dutch compara-
tive psychologist Geert Hofstede (1980, 2002), reporting
a di erence of 1.98 standard deviation between major
European countries and six Northeast Asian countries
Furthermore, it has been reported that other internation-
al individualism/collectivism surveys have produced
very similar and consistent results (Diener, Gohm, Suh,
& Oishi, 2000; Schimmack, Oishi, & Diener, 2005), such
as the index by Triandis (1995 ) and Schwartz (1994).
These studies show the uniqueness of the European in-
dividualistic culture. It is possible that high novelty-
seeking and curiosity of Europeans may have been gen-
erated and strengthened by their individualistic culture.
But, clearly, there are genetic underpinnings to individ-
ualism, and Northeast Asian culture is relatively low in
individualism. This would limit the production of origi-
nal scienti c breakthroughs in Northeast Asia, whereas
Europeans would not su er from this limitation to the
same extent.
Method
Measures
Proxies for novelty-seeking, social anxiety, fear of exclusion .
As explained in the Introduction, DRD4 is the percent-
age of the 7-repeat allele by country (ALFRED, 2015),
and is a proxy for novelty seeking. 5HTT is the percent-
age of 5HTTLRP long form by country (Chiao & Bliz-
insky, 2010), a proxy for social anxiety. OPRM1 is the
percentage of OPRM1 G allele by country (Way & Liber-
man, 2010), a proxy for fear of social exclusion.
Hofstede's index of individualism .— IDV is the individ-
ualism index by Hofstede ( Hofstede, 2001 ; Hofstede,
Hofstede, & Minkov, 2010 ). Hofstede administered a
14-item questionnaire to IBM workers worldwide about
their personal values. His IDV index showed the degree
of individualistic values held by those workers. As stat-
ed above, the validity of this measure and its consis-
tency with other measures were reported in Diener, et
al . (2000) and Schimmack, et al . (2005). Table 2 shows
that the average value of IDV among 27 major Euro-
pean countries was 73.9, whereas that of six Northeast
Asian regions was 24.3. National scores were standard-
ized from the averages of IBM workers in each country
so that the mean is 50 with a standard deviation of 25.
Prize winners .— The numbers of Nobel laureates of
countries were taken from the o cial site of the Nobel
TABLE 2
IDV (Hofstede, Hofstede, & Minkov, 2002) Values and Genetic Frequencies for European and Northeast Asian
Nations ( SD di erence = 1.98)
Europeans Asians
Country IDV DRD4 H5TT OPRM1 Country IDV DRD4 H5TT OPRM1
Australia 90 54.09 China 20 0 24.8 .58
Austria 55 56.35 Hong Kong 25 0
Belgium 75 Japan 46 0.01 19.75 .63
Canada 80 Korea 18 20.55 .632
Denmark 74 .167 78.36 1.0 Singapore 20 28.76
Finland 63 .061 57.55 Taiwan 17 0 29.43
France 71 56.82 .86
Germany 67 56.97
Italy 76 51.46 .81
Netherlands 80 .17 57.28
New Zealand 79 56.97
Norway 69
Spain 51 .18 53.25 .96
Sweden 71 .16 56.37
Switzerland 66.5
U. K. 89 56.02 .91
U.S. 91 0.18 55.47
M 73.9 .153 57.5 .91 24.3 .0025 24.6 0.61
SD 24.8 .085 16.2 .16
Note DRD4 is the percentage of 7-repeat allele by country, 5HTT is the percentage of 5HTTLRP long form by country,
OPRM1 is the percentage of OPRM1 G allele by country, all per million population. IDV is the individualism index by
Hofstede ( Hofstede, Hostede, & Minkov, 2010 ).
Northeast Asians, Nobel Prizes / K. Kura, et al.
52015, Volume 4, Article 15
Comprehensive Psychology
foundation. Although they count scholars’ countries of
birth, they are nearly parallel to the country where a re-
searcher was mainly educated or conducted the most
important academic work. To be congruent with our in-
tention to analyze scienti c achievement, we excluded Lit-
erature and Peace prizes and added the number of Fields
medals ( Wikipedia, 2015 ). To obtain the number of Nobel
prizes per capita (per thousand), we divided these num-
bers above by the population sizes in the year 1950 (Hes-
ton, Summers, & Aten, 2015). Average national IQ scores
of countries were taken from Lynn and Vanhanen (2012 ).
The q index .— An index of curiosity and independent
mindset, called the q index, was derived by factor-anal-
ysis of the population frequencies of the alleles in novel-
ty-seeking, low social anxiety, and low fear of exclusion:
DRD4 frequencies were taken from ALFRED (2015 ),
5HTTLPR long allele frequencies (5HTT) were taken
from Chiao and Blizinsky (2010), and OPRM1 frequen-
cies were taken from Way and Liberman (2010 ). Since
some countries had only one or two kinds of data, we
imputed the missing data with their respective mean
values, which is the simplest way to use all the infor-
mation available ( Little & Rubin, 2002 ). This simple pro-
cedure of imputation is known to give relatively con-
servative estimates of the factor scores, since it does
not incorporate the information of covariance matrix of
the variables. A single factor was extracted, explaining
58.6% of the total variance. The q index for each country
was calculated as the weighted sum of means using the
factor loadings, i.e., q = (0.626) DRD4 + (0.626) 5HTT +
(0.596) OPRM1.
Table 3 shows the descriptive statistics for the study
variables and their correlations with the q index. It is ap-
parent that all the variables associated with curiosity and
independent-mindedness are positively correlated when
comparing national-level data. Thus, e.g., countries with
a high percentage of the population carrying alleles asso-
ciated with novelty-seeking also have a relatively low fre-
quency of the alleles associated with social anxiety. This
method of using allele frequencies of human populations
to predict associated phenotypic traits such as average IQ
and height has been very successful ( Pi er, 2013 , 2014 ).
Nobel Prizes and the q Index
To examine the importance of the q index for the num-
ber of Nobel Prizes, we step-wise regressed the per cap-
ita number of Nobel laureates and Fields medalists (per
million people in 2000) on IQ (Model 1) and then IQ and
the q index (Model 2). All of these statistical analyses
were computed using the R statistical program (R 3.2.1
for Windows).
Results
The eigenvalues for the rst three factors from the fac-
tor analysis of the allele frequencies by country were
1.75, 0.60, and 0.60; only the rst factor was extracted.
The factor scores ( q index) for European and East Asian
countries are shown in Table 4 . The average q index
of 19 European countries is 0.30, while that of seven
East Asian countries and regions is 1.11. As discussed
above, our relatively conservative estimate of the di er-
ence in their mean factor scores was 1.4, congruent with
the results from two individualism indices (about 2
standard deviations di erence) in Hofstede (1980, 2002)
and Triandis (1995 ).
The result of the regression analysis of the number
of prize winners per million on national average IQ
scores and the q index is shown in Tables 5 and 6 . There
are 46 countries in the analysis. When we regressed the
dependent variable only on IQ (Model 1), the model
explained only 5% of the variance, whereas when we
used both IQ and the q index as explanatory variables
(Model 2), the model explained 19% of the variance in
the number of Nobel laureates. In Model 2, coe cients
TABLE 3
Study Variables’ Correlations with the q Index
Variable 1. 2. 3. 4.
r n r n r n r n
1. DRD4 31
2. 5HTT .49 * 20 34
3. OPRM1 .78 * 8 .49 13 15
4. IDV .40 20 .66 29 .78 10 74
Note DRD4 is the percentage of 7-repeat allele by country, 5HTT
is the percentage of 5HTTLRP long form by country, OPRM1 is the
percentage of OPRM1 G allele by country, all per million population.
IDV is the individualism index by Hofstede ( Hofstede, Hofstede, &
Minkov, 2010 ). n represents the number of countries in the calculation
of each correlation. * p < .05. p < .01. p < .001.
TABLE 4
The q Index for European and East Asian Nations
Australia .03 China 1.97
Austria .09 Hong Kong 0.58
Denmark .45 Japan 1.90
Estonia .59 Macao 0.58
Finland .14 Mongolia 0.66
France .36 Singapore 0.65
Germany .11 South Korea 1.35
Hungary .52 Taiwan 1.21
Israel .72
Italy .05
Netherlands .40
New Zealand .11
Poland .27
Russia .07
Slovenia .12
Spain .92
Sweden .33
UK .50
US .40
Average .30 Average 1.11
Northeast Asians, Nobel Prizes / K. Kura, et al.
62015, Volume 4, Article 15
Comprehensive Psychology
of both IQ and the q index were positive and signi -
cant. Although the model explained only 19% of the to-
tal variance, the signi cance of the coe cients suggests
that the q index indeed plays an important role for sci-
enti c accomplishment.
Discussion
This study examined the contrast between the out-
standing scholastic achievement and the relatively poor
scienti c performance of Northeast Asians by devising
the index of curiosity, q . Europeans obtain an average
score of 1.4 above Northeast Asians on this factor.
The novel approach speci ed three genetic underpin-
nings of individualistic curiosity: DRD4 7-repeat, 5HT-
TLPR long allele, and OPRM1. Then these gene frequen-
cies were incorporated into the derivation of q indices of
nations, as a measure of the tendency to be curious and
independent-minded. Lastly, we found that the regres-
sion analysis showed that not only IQ but also the q in-
dex is important for a population to produce prominent
scholars.
It is our argument that as Northeast Asian coun-
tries are lower on the q index than European countries,
yet higher in intelligence, this would assist in explain-
ing the surprisingly poor representation of Northeast
Asian countries in terms of original scienti c achieve-
ment. However, there are a number of alternative ex-
planations that need to be discussed. First, it might be
argued that until around World War II the standard of
living was signi cantly lower in Japan than in Western
Europe, and this would explain the poor representa-
tion of the Japanese in terms of Nobel Prizes and Fields
Medals. However, this raises the question of why the
Japanese should have had a lower standard of living
if they had a signi cantly higher average IQ. A parsi-
monious explanation is that they were less innovative
than Europeans due, in part, to lower q . Moreover, since
around 1970 or earlier, the Japanese standard of living
has equalized with and exceeded that of Western Eu-
rope, but even since this time, Japan has lower scienti c
achievement. The most frequently cited 10 scholars in
21 scienti c elds in 2014 (210 in total) include only sev-
en Japanese, while there were 18 British and 12 French
scholars ( Thomson-Reuter, 2015 ). Since the Japanese
population (126 million) is more than the sum of those
of the UK and France (120 million), Japan produces less
than one-fourth the number of prominent scholars.
Second, it might be suggested that the Japanese IQ
is more bunched toward the mean than the European
IQ, due to high genetic homogeneity (e.g., Holtz, 1989 ,
p. 117). This would lead to fewer high IQ outliers and
so fewer per capita scienti c achievements. However,
it has been shown that scienti c achievement requires
both high intelligence and high q , so this is unlikely to
be the entire explanation.
Third, it might be argued that only relatively re-
cently has Northeast Asia developed a higher average
IQ than Europe. Woodley, et al . (2014) have presented
data indicating that there has been a dysgenic trend in
intelligence in Europe since around 1900, due to a va-
riety of factors including the higher fertility of less edu-
cated females since this time. They argue that until the
Industrial Revolution wealth predicted fertility, meaning
that average IQ increased each generation, until it was so
high in Europe that the Industrial Revolution occurred.
Clark (2007 ) has presented data showing that the same re-
lationship between wealth and fertility existed in North-
east Asia, but it was not as pronounced, meaning that
TABLE 5
Stepwise Regression: Number of Nobel Prizes (Per Million People) on IQ
(Model 1) and IQ and q Index (Model 2)
Model R R 2 Adj R 2 SE Est . Change Statistics
Δ R 2 Δ F df 1 df 2 p
Model 1 .27 .07 .05 34.2 .08 .07 3.32 1 44
Model 2 .48 .23 .19 28.4 .004 .16 3.07 1 43
Note n = 46. Model 1 comprised IQ, Model 2 comprised IQ and q index.
TABLE 6
Coe cients For Multiple Regression Coe cients
Model Variable
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients t p
B SE β
Model 1 (Constant) 1.63 1.17 1.39 .17
IQ .023 .013 .27 1.82 .075
Model 2 (Constant) 3.11 1.19 2.61 .012
IQ .039 .013 .45 3.05 .004
q Index .50 .17 .44 2.98 .005
Northeast Asians, Nobel Prizes / K. Kura, et al.
72015, Volume 4, Article 15
Comprehensive Psychology
Northeast Asian IQ climbed more slowly. According-
ly, it may be that in around 1800 Europe actually had
a higher average IQ than did Northeast Asia and, in
that the European decline in IQ is only hypothesized to
have commenced around 1900, it may be that many of
the 20th century's European Nobel Prize winners were
born at a time when Europe's IQ was higher than that
of Northeast Asia, explaining Northeast Asia's relative-
ly poor per capita representation. But, again, even if this
is true, it is unlikely that the q index has played no part,
as Japan's per capita Nobel Prizes, e.g., is worse than
countries with an average IQ of half an SD or more be-
low the European mean (such as Ireland and Cyprus)
and only slightly better than various other European
countries with lower national IQ, such as Portugal and
Romania (see Dutton, et al ., 2014 ). Moreover, even if we
only look at Prizes won since 1980, Japan and Korea still
perform worse than European countries, despite higher
living standards and higher average IQ (Japan and Ko-
rea have been awarded 17 and 0 Nobel laureates after
1980, respectively, while the U.K. and France have been
awarded 22 and 19, respectively.)
Our ndings suggest that not only general intelli-
gence, but also various genetic di erences among popu-
lations have played crucial roles in the progress of science.
Future research could focus on the question whether the
mean q index is the same for original populations and
immigrant populations. For instance, all awards to Chi-
nese prizewinners were awarded for work carried out at
European institutes. Traditionally, Chinese culture has
been more conservative than that of Europe and rela-
tively unwelcoming of or even hostile toward new ideas
and does not allow single researchers to be outstanding,
which is often ascribed to the Confucian doctrine ( Wade,
2014 ). This knowledge would enable us to decompose
national academic attainments into in uences of genetic
factors and purely cultural transmissions.
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Book
Praise for the First Edition of Statistical Analysis with Missing Data “An important contribution to the applied statistics literature.... I give the book high marks for unifying and making accessible much of the past and current work in this important area.”—William E. Strawderman, Rutgers University “This book...provide[s] interesting real-life examples, stimulating end-of-chapter exercises, and up-to-date references. It should be on every applied statistician’s bookshelf.”—The Statistician “The book should be studied in the statistical methods department in every statistical agency.”—Journal of Official Statistics Statistical analysis of data sets with missing values is a pervasive problem for which standard methods are of limited value. The first edition of Statistical Analysis with Missing Data has been a standard reference on missing-data methods. Now, reflecting extensive developments in Bayesian methods for simulating posterior distributions, this Second Edition by two acknowledged experts on the subject offers a thoroughly up-to-date, reorganized survey of current methodology for handling missing-data problems. Blending theory and application, authors Roderick Little and Donald Rubin review historical approaches to the subject and describe rigorous yet simple methods for multivariate analysis with missing values. They then provide a coherent theory for analysis of problems based on likelihoods derived from statistical models for the data and the missing-data mechanism and apply the theory to a wide range of important missing-data problems. The new edition now enlarges its coverage to include: Expanded coverage of Bayesian methodology, both theoretical and computational, and of multiple imputation Analysis of data with missing values where inferences are based on likelihoods derived from formal statistical models for the data-generating and missing-data mechanisms Applications of the approach in a variety of contexts including regression, factor analysis, contingency table analysis, time series, and sample survey inference Extensive references, examples, and exercises Amstat News asked three review editors to rate their top five favorite books in the September 2003 issue. Statistical Analysis With Missing Data was among those chosen.
Article
Race differences in intelligence are generally consistent with differences in the historical record of creative achievement in the arts and sciences. The North East Asians (classical Mongoloids) and the European Caucasoids have the highest intelligence and the greatest creative achievements, while other races have lower IQs and lesser creative achievements. There is however an anomaly: North East Asians have a higher IQ than Europeans, but their creative achievements have been less. Evidence is presented showing that the North East Asians have lower creativity measured by openness to experience. It is proposed that this explains their lower creative achievement.
Chapter
This chapter presents reanalyses of data originally reported in McCrae (2001) in an enlarged sample of cultures. Analyses of age and gender differences, the generalizability of culture profiles across gender and age groups, and culture-level factor structure and correlates are replicated after the addition of 30 new subsamples from 10 cultures. Cross-cultural variations in the standard deviations of NEO-PI-R scales are also examined. Standardized factor- and facet-level means are provided for use by other researchers.