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Do Good Gamers Make Good Students? Sid Meier's Civilization and Performance Prediction

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Abstract

Civilization is a popular series of turn-based strategy video games. The game is broad, so it confronts players with high complexity. Dealing with this complexity requires good analytical skills, but interpersonal skills are likewise important. These and similar skills are also relevant in the job market, especially for managerial positions, so the question arises whether Civilization can predict business managers' performance. To explore this possibility, we conducted a series of multiplayer games with forty business students. While we cannot yet present data related to their job performance, this research-in-progress paper provides first evidence of a significant relationship between game performance and academic performance. Our future research will explore the participants' analytical and interpersonal skills and how these skills are related to success in the game in order to show whether and how well strategy video games may also predict job performance and, as such, support personnel evaluation and selection.

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Human resource professionals increasingly enhance their assessment tools with game elements—a process typically referred to as “gamification”—to make them more interesting and engaging for candidates, and they design and use “serious games” that can support skill assessment and development. However, commercial, off-the-shelf video games are not or are only rarely used to screen or test candidates, even though there is increasing evidence that they are indicative of various skills that are professionally valuable. Using the strategy game Civilization, this proof-of-concept study explores if strategy video games are indicative of managerial skills and, if so, of what managerial skills. Under controlled laboratory conditions, we asked forty business students to play the Civilization game and to participate in a series of assessment exercises. We find that students who had high scores in the game had better skills related to problem-solving and organizing and planning than the students who had low scores. In addition, a preliminary analysis of in-game data, including players’ interactions and chat messages, suggests that strategy games such as Civilization may be used for more precise and holistic “stealth assessments,” including personality assessments.
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Despite extensive evidence that tests are valid for employee selection, Federal Guidelines have urged employers to seek alternative selection procedures that are equally valid but have less adverse impact on minorities. Research on the validity, adverse impact and fairness of eight categories of alternatives was reviewed. Feasibility of operational use of each type of alternative in an employment setting was also discussed. Only biodata and peer evaluation were supported as having validities substantially equal to those for standardized tests. Previous reviews and more recent research indicated that interviews, self-assessments, reference checks, academic achievement, expert judgment and projective techniques had levels of validity generally below those reported for tests. Data, where available, offered no clear indication that any of the alternatives met the criterion of having equal validity with less adverse impact. Results are discussed and several additional promising alternatives are described.
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We used meta-analytic procedures to investigate the criterion-related validity of assessment center dimension ratings. By focusing on dimension-level information, we were able to assess the extent to which specific constructs account for the criterion-related validity of assessment centers. From a total of 34 articles that reported dimension-level validities, we collapsed 168 assessment center dimension labels into an overriding set of 6 dimensions: (a) consideration/awareness of others, (b) communication, (c) drive, (d) influencing others, (e) organizing and planning, and (f) problem solving. Based on this set of 6 dimensions, we extracted 258 independent data points. Results showed a range of estimated true criterion-related validities from .25 to .39. A regression-based composite consisting of 4 out of the 6 dimensions accounted for the criterion-related validity of assessment center ratings and explained more variance in performance (20%) than Gaugler, Rosenthal, Thornton, and Bentson (1987) were able to explain using the overall assessment center rating (14%).
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The relationship between college grade point average (GPA) and recruiters' initial screening decisions was examined using data from 548 job postings in a college recruitment program. Results indicate that in-major grade point average (GPA) is more strongly associated with screening decisions (p= 0.18, SDP= 0.200) than is overall GPA (p= 0.06, SDP= 0.187), but the magnitudes of the relationships varied across decision sets including a larger number of negative values than would be expected from sampling error alone. Subsequent examination of the bivariate data identified 6 different plot types suggesting that recruiters use a variety of GPA decision rules to initially screen applicants in college recruiting. The most common data plots found in 42% of the decision sets suggests that recruiters do not use GPA in screening decisions. But a surprising 81 of 548 decision sets indicated recruiters selected against applicants with high GPAs. Evidence that organizations recruiting for the same job produced different plot types suggests that the use of GPA data in initial screening decisions may be idiosyncratic to individual recruiters.
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Review and metaanalyses of published validation studies for the years 1964-1982 of Journal of Applied Psychology and Personnel Psychology were undertaken to examine the effect of (1) research design; (2) criterion used; (3) type of selection instrument used; (4) occupational group studies; and (5) predictor-criterion combination on the level of observed validity coefficients. Results indicate that concurrent validation designs produce validity coefficients roughly equivalent to those obtained in predictive validation designs and that both of these designs produce higher validity coefficients than does a predictive design which includes use of the selection instrument. Of the criteria examined, performance rating criteria generally produced lower validity coefficients than did the use of other more “objective” criteria. In comparing the validities of various types of predictors, it was found cognitive ability tests were not superior to other predictors such as assessment centers, work samples, and supervisory/peer evaluations as has been found in previous metaanalytic work. Personality measures were clearly less valid. Compared to previous validity generalization work, much unexplained variance in validity coefficients remained after corrections for differences in sample size. Finally, the studies reviewed were deficient for our purposes with respect to the data reported. Selection ratios, standard deviations, reliabilities, predictor and criterion intercorrelations were rarely and inconsistently reported. There are also many predictor-criterion relationships for which very few validation efforts have been undertaken.
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Two hundred fifteen organizations in the United States provided information about multiple aspects of their assessment centers, including design, usage, and their adherence to professional guidelines and research-based suggestions for the use of this method. Results reveal that centers are usually conducted for selection, promotion, and development purposes. Supervisor recommendation plays a sizable role in choosing center participants. Most often, line managers act as assessors; they typically arrive at participant ratings through a consensus process. In general, respondents indicate close adherence to recommendations for center design and assessor training. Recommendations involving other practices (e.g., informing participants, evaluating assessors, validating center results) are frequently not followed. Furthermore, methods thought to improve predictive validity of center ratings are underutilized. Variability in center practices according to industry and center purpose was revealed. We encourage practitioners to follow recommendations for center usage, and researchers to work to better understand moderators of center validity.
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Although long thought to be unrelated to job performance, research in the early 1990s provided evidence that personality can predict job performance. Accompanying this research was a resurgence of interest in the use of personality tests in high-stakes selection environments. Yet there are numerous potential problems associated with the current operational use of personality. As such, 5 former journal editors from Personnel Psychology and the Journal of Applied Psychology (2 primary outlets for such research), who have collectively reviewed over 7,000 manuscripts and who have no vested interest in personality testing, reconsider the research on the use of personality tests in environments where important selection decisions are made. Their comments are based on a panel discussion held at the 2004 SIOP conference. Collectively, they come to several conclusions. First, faking on self-report personality tests cannot be avoided and perhaps is not the issue; the issue is the very low validity of personality tests for predicting job performance. Second, as such, using published self-report personality tests in selection contexts should be reconsidered. Third, personality constructs may have value for employee selection, but future research should focus on finding alternatives to self-report personality measures.
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The present study used meta-analytic methodology to synthesize research on the relationship between college grades and adult achievement. The data for the meta-analysis came from 108 studies correlating grade average in college to various criteria of adult achievement or success. The average correlation between grade average and a composite success criterion was .18, a small effect. Correlations between grade average and eight other criteria of adult achievement were also small, ranging from .09 to .20. Correlational effects were larger in military settings and for studies conducted prior to 1950. The results of this meta-analysis may be somewhat discouraging to those who place a great deal of importance on the predictive value of grades.
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A key problem in playing strategy games is learn- ing how to allocate resources effectively. This can be a difficult task for machine learning when the connections between actions and goal outputs are indirect and complex. We show how a combina- tion of structural analogy, experimentation, and qualitative modeling can be used to improve per- formance in optimizing food production in a strat- egy game. Experimentation bootstraps a case li- brary and drives variation, while analogical reason- ing supports retrieval and transfer. A qualitative model serves as a partial domain theory to support adaptation and credit assignment. Together, these techniques can enable a system to learn the effects of its actions, the ranges of quantities, and to apply training in one city to other, structurally different cities. We describe experiments demonstrating this transfer of learning.
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Research in proteomics has created two significant needs: the need for an accurate public database of empirically derived mass spectrum information and the need for managing the I/O and organization of mass spectrometry data in the form of files and ...
GTA 5 Ships 45 Million Copies, Including 10 Million on Xbox One and PS4 Gamespotwww.gamespot.com/articles/gta-5-ships-45-million- copies-including-10-million
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PC Turn-Based Games (by Metascore) Metacritic
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Do Grades Matter? Depends if You're Asking Google or Goldman Sachs Quartz
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Nisen, M. 2015. " Do Grades Matter? Depends if You're Asking Google or Goldman Sachs, " Quartz (April 20, 2015), retrieved August 21, 2015, from http://qz.com/382570/goldman-sachs-actually-google- gpas-arent-worthless/
A Study of Interactive Game Art Expression with Gamification Application
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Park, H. J., and Lim, K. H. 2014. "A Study of Interactive Game Art Expression with Gamification Application," International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering (4:3), pp. 168-171.
Becoming-State: The Bio-Cultural Imperialism of Sid Meier's Civilization
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Pobłocki, K. 2002. "Becoming-State: The Bio-Cultural Imperialism of Sid Meier's Civilization," Focaal -European Journal of Anthropology (39), pp. 163-177.
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Squire, K., and Steinkuehler, C. 2005. " Meet the Gamers, " Library Journal (April 15, 2005).
A Meta-Analysis of the Criterion-Related Validity of Assessment Center Dimensions
  • W Day
  • E A Mcnelly
  • T L Edens
Arthur Jr., W., Day, E. A., McNelly, T. L., and Edens, P. S. 2003. "A Meta-Analysis of the Criterion-Related Validity of Assessment Center Dimensions," Personnel Psychology (56:1), pp. 125-154.
GTA 5 Ships 45 Million Copies, Including 10 Million on Xbox One and PS4
  • E Makuch
Makuch, E. 2015. "GTA 5 Ships 45 Million Copies, Including 10 Million on Xbox One and PS4," Gamespot, retrieved May 2, 2015, from http://www.gamespot.com/articles/gta-5-ships-45-millioncopies-including-10-million/1100-6425079/
Recruiters' Use of GPA in Initial Screening Decisions: Higher GPAs Don't Always Make the Cut
  • A P Mckinney
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  • Iii Mecham
  • R L Angelo
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McKinney, A. P., Carlson, K. D., Mecham III, R. L., D'Angelo, N. C., and Connerley, M. L. 2003. "Recruiters' Use of GPA in Initial Screening Decisions: Higher GPAs Don't Always Make the Cut," Personnel Psychology (56:4), pp. 823-845.
Do Grades Matter? Depends if You're Asking Google or Goldman Sachs
  • M Nisen
Nisen, M. 2015. "Do Grades Matter? Depends if You're Asking Google or Goldman Sachs," Quartz (April 20, 2015), retrieved August 21, 2015, from http://qz.com/382570/goldman-sachs-actually-googlegpas-arent-worthless/