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Perception du risque de conflit chez les contrôleurs aériens : le projet CREED - Perception of risks of conflict by air traffic controllers : the CREED project
Abstract
Revue technique de la DTI, N°3, 2006
... Evaluer la charge de travail des contrôleurs aériens est une tâche difficile car elle est liée à la mesure de l'activité cognitive des contrôleurs. Au cours de ces dernières années, de nombreux travaux ont visé à quantifier la complexité du trafic aérien et à construire des modèles de perception afin de mieux appréhender les fluctuations de leur charge de travail [15], [16]. En 2004, la Commission Européenne et Eurocontrol ont crée le projet SESAR (Single European Sky Air traffic management Research) [3], autour de trois objectifs : ...
... En revanche, ce type d'approche vise à minimiser le risque qu'un conflit potentiel ne soit pas pris en compte par l'algorithme de détection des conflits. La charge de travail des contrôleurs aériens dépend de multiple facteurs ; en particulier, elle est liée à leur perception du trafic, par conséquent le doute qu'ils sont susceptibles d'exprimer en présence d'un conflit potentiel contribue à augmenter l'effort cognitif nécessaire [16]. Le but ultime de notre modèle étant de réguler la charge de travail des contrôleurs aériens, l'usage d'une approche de type pire-cas pour détecter les conflits potentiels est adapté à notre modèle. ...
... 16 -Statistiques sur le nombre de conflits potentiels détectés pour différentes valeurs de l'incertitude maximale. ...
As global air traffic volume is continuously increasing, it has become a priority to improve air traffic control in order to deal with future air traffic demand. One of the current challenges regarding air traffic management is the airspace capacity problem, which is acknowledged to be correlated to air traffic controllers' workload. Air traffic controllers stand at the core of the traffic monitoring system and one of their main objective is to ensure the separation of aircraft by anticipating potential conflicts. Conflict detection and resolution are likely to increase workload and may lead them to reroute aircrafts to less dense areas, triggering off flight delay. The airspace capacity problem can hence be tackled by regulating air traffic flow in order to reduce the global conflict quantity. The objective of this thesis is to develop a methodology aiming at minimizing potential conflicts quantity by slightly adjusting aircraft speeds in real time. This approach is mainly motivated by conclusions of the ERASMUS project on subliminal speed control, which was designed to keep air traffic controllers unaware of the ongoing regulation process. By focusing on low magnitude speed modulations, aircraft trajectories can be modified to reduce the quantity of conflicts and smoothen air traffic flow in the airspace network. The method used to carry out this type of regulation is constraint optimization. In this thesis, we develop a deterministic optimization model for two-aircraft conflicts which is then adapted to large scale instances using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming. In order to reproduce realistic navigation conditions, uncertainty on aircraft speeds is introduced with the goal of modeling the impact of trajectory prediction uncertainty in air traffic management. To validate our approach, a simulation device capable of simulating real air traffic data over the European airspace is used. Main results of this work reveal a significant conflict quantity reduction and demonstrate the robustness of the developed model to the uncertainty in trajectory prediction. Finally, the impact of our model on air traffic flow is measured through several air traffic management indicators and validates the proposed methodology.
... Nevertheless, it is difficult to assess their proper impact onto ATC operations. Indeed, measuring the risk perceived by ATCs involves cognitive science (Averty et al. 2006, Chaloulos et al. 2010 and is not in the scope of this paper. Recently, Vela et al. (2011) presented a mathematical approach to study the design and implementation of CD&R algorithms in relationship with ATCs' taskload which is defined as the number of conflict resolution maneuvers required to separate aircraft. ...
We address the conflict resolution problem in air traffic management. It is widely acknowledged that Air Traffic Controllers’ (ATCs) workload is related to the density of flights. ATCs’ main task is to ensure the safety of flights throughout their trips and consists in ensuring the respect of separation standards. Recently, the concept of subliminal control has emerged as a promising conflict resolution technique that could be used to reduce the impact of conflicts onto ATCs’ workload. In this research, we present deterministic conflict resolution models adapted to subliminal speed control. The proposed models are formulated as nonlinear optimization problems which seek to minimize indicators related to ATCs’ workload (total conflict duration, total number of conflicts) using only minor speed adjustments.We introduce a linear approximation of the aircraft separation equations to implement the obtained mixed integer programs on a continental size air traffic network. Specifically, we develop a simulation framework aiming at reproducing realistic navigation conditions and evaluate the robustness of our conflict resolution models using a generic uncertainty model. We show that the impact of conflicts onto ATCs’ workload can be significantly reduced using only limited resources, i.e. a narrow speed modulation range, even in the presence of perturbations. Further, we demonstrate that a significant share of the potential conflicts can be resolved without inducing important delays to flights. Finally, we report that our model does not require extensive computational resources as most instances can be solved to global optimality in a few seconds.
Aircraft trajectory is one of the most fundamental objects in air traffic management. Its optimization is essential to ensure efficient and sustainable aviation. This survey proposes to study all the phases of a flight, from its prediction several days before day of flight to the landing of the aircraft, including also the study of a possible emergency situation. Each phase of flight raises different issues and is subject to particular constraints. These guide the choice of potentially usable optimization methods. This study proposes, from the context, the issues, and existing studies, a methodology to identify the most appropriate solution algorithms for optimizing each phase of flight. This methodology is based on 5 evaluation criteria: optimality, computing time, adaptability, memory usage, and multi-trajectories. Finally, thanks to it, some methods are compared based on their consistency with solving problem associated to each phase of flight.
In enroute sectors, a large part of the workload of air traffic controllers consists in anticipating aircraft trajectories in order to determine whether a loss of separation is likely to occur. We consider an automation problem which aims at alleviating this workload by emulating a "lucky traffic". Through a dedicated datalink, the system has to command small speed variations so that situations which could lead to a loss of separation between aircraft turn out to be safe at an early stage; the speed variations have to be small enough in order not to be noticed by the air traffic controller who works with a fuzzy knowledge of speeds. We formulate this control problem as a hybrid dynamical game in which the control has to minimize a cost representing the air traffic controller stress index. Uncertainty on the aircraft dynamics is seen as the opponent of control trying to increase the stress. We rewrite this game as a robust reachability problem for an auxiliary hybrid system, and we provide some numerical results.
We present a mathematical framework for a novel concept of computer-aided air-traffic management called subliminal control. The premise is that a large part of air traffic controllers workload is devoted to monitoring situations which are likely to become unsafe. The automated control system, using an accurate prediction model and a datalink with the aircraft, has to operate small adjustments in the speeds of aircraft early enough to prevent the perception of a risk of conflict. These actions have to be small enough to be imperceptible by air traffic controllers. We formulate the subliminal control problem as a robust optimization problem in which the cost is related to the perception of risk. We use a hybrid control model with uncertainty and state constraints, and solve the problem in a game setting by using tools from viability theory. We develop this approach on an example and provide numerical results.
The European Commission funded ERASMUS is a 30 months project to look at ways to effectively integrate advanced automation concepts consistent with controllers' human factors issues. This paper outlines an innovative concept of operations that combines a human factors approach, automation technologies and their relationship to overall system safety and efficiency. ERASMUS aims at investigating three applications with varying levels of automation: subliminal control, ATC auto pilot and enhanced MTCD. Only the subliminal application is presented in this paper.
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