Article

Risk quantification framework of hydride-based hydrogen storage systems for light-duty vehicles

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Abstract

ABSTRACT This study aims to develop a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework for on-board hydrogen storage systems in light-duty fuel cell vehicles, with focus on hazards from potential vehicular collision affecting hydride-based hydrogen storage vessels. Sodium aluminum hydride (NaAlH4) has been selected as a representative reversible hydride for hydrogen storage. Functionality of QRA framework is demonstrated by presenting a case study of a postulated vehicle collision (VC) involving the onboard hydrogen storage system. An event tree (ET) model is developed for VC as the accident initiating event. For illustrative purposes, a detailed FT model is developed for hydride dust cloud explosion as part of the accident progress. Phenomenologically-driven ET branch probabilities are estimated based on an experimental program performed for this purpose. Safety-critical basic events (BE) in the FT model are determined using conventional risk importance measures. The Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) technique has been employed to propagate the aleatory (i.e., stochastic) and epistemic (i.e., phenomenological) uncertainties associated with the probabilistic ET and FT models. Extrapolation of the proposed QRA framework and its core risk-informed insights to other candidate on-board reversible and off-board regenerable hydrogen storage systems could provide better understanding of risk consequences and mitigation options associated with employing this hydrogen-based technology in the transportation sector. Keywords: Event tree; fault tree; on-board reversible; off-board regenerable; dust cloud explosion; importance measures

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... As part of quantifying the risks associated with on-board reversible and off-board regenerable hydrogen storage systems in LD-FCV, Khalil (2010d;2010e;2010f;2010g;2015) developed a roadmap (Fig. 3) that starts with qualitative risk assessment (QLRA) to identify potential failure modes and hazards of these systems. The primary QLRA methods include design and process failure modes & effects analysis (D-FMEA and P-FMEA) and hazard and operability (HAZOP) analysis. ...
... Input to QLRA can come from different sources such as expert opinion pooling (Khalil and Mosher, 2008), surrogate/ proxy data, field operating data, physics-based models, and test data. After the critical risks are identified using QLRA, quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods and tools could be applied to quantify those critical risks and to assess the impact of proposed risk mitigation strategies (Khalil and Modarres, 2010g;Khalil, 2010a;2011b;2011c;2015). QRA methods include fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA). ...
... In the risk analysis performed by this author (Khalil, 2011d;2011e;2013b;2015), some of the postulated accident scenarios assume hydride storage vessel breach followed by contact of the spewed (dispersed) chunks of the stored hydride material with hot metal surfaces in the presence ...
Article
The objective of this research is to examine the safety-related characteristics of candidate hydrogen storage materials being considered for use in light-duty fuel-cell vehicles (LD-FCV) under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Program. This research aims to provide useful meaning to the general DOE safety target by establishing a link between the safety-related characteristics of candidate storage materials and satisfaction of DOE safety target. Accordingly, a science-based framework has been developed and consists of standardized materials tests (based on internationally accepted ASTM and United Nations testing protocols), novel risk mitigation strategies, and subscale system demonstration. The examined storage materials include NaAlH4, AlH3, 2LiBH4 + MgH2, 3Mg(NH2)2.8LiH, NH3BH3, and activated carbon (Maxsorb AX-21). The scope of safety tests covers conditions that the storage material may encounter during postulated accident scenarios such as dust cloud explosion, materials reactivity in air and other fluids, hot-surface contact, mechanical impact, and fast depressurization. The generated results uncovered potential fire and explosion risks under accidental conditions. The generated insights can be useful for assigning realistic probability values needed for quantifying risk scenarios, characterizing material’s hazard class, and supporting current and new hydrogen safety codes and standards. For risk mitigation, this study showed that powder compaction could be effective in suppressing pyrophoricity of hydride powders such as NaAlH4. Also, the study has experimentally demonstrated that adding (NH4)H2PO4 as a flame retardant to the hydride powder before compaction could suppress sensitivity of hydrides like NaAlH4 to ignite due to mechanical impact. The results also revealed that Maxsorb AX-21 to be a safer hydrogen storage medium compared to the examined hydrides which exhibited potential safety concerns under certain accident conditions.
... In Ref. [23] a risk assessment framework for onboard hydride-based hydrogen storage systems for light-duty vehicles was proposed and uncertainties involved were discussed. There are other hydrogen related risk assessment related studies including, but not limited to, an overview of risk assessment studies on hydrogen safety [24]; discussion on challenges towards hydrogen technology risk assessment [25,26]; risk assessment of hydrogen and CNG refuelling stations [27]; quantitative risk assessment of the mobile hydrogen refuelling station [28]; presenting a hydrogen risk assessment methodology [29]; , proposing and implementing a risk assessment methodology during the production of hydrogen in an oil refinery [30]; proposing and modelling of a risk matrix framework of cryogenic liquid hydrogen filling systems [31]; 3D risk management on hydrogen installations [32]; a grid-based risk assessment method in hydrogen refuelling stations [33] and performance-based design of refuelling stations [34]. ...
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A quantitative risk assessment of onboard hydrogen-powered vehicle storage, exposed to a fire, is performed. The risk is defined twofold as a cost of human life per vehicle fire, and annual fatality rate per vehicle. The increase of fire resistance rating of the storage tank is demonstrated to drastically reduce the risk to acceptable level. Hazard distances are calculated by validated engineering tools for blast wave and fireball, which follow catastrophic tank rupture in a fire, act in all directions and have larger hazard distances compared to jet fire. The fatality cash value, probabilities of vehicle fire and failure of thermally activated pressure relief device are taken from published sources. A vulnerability probit function is employed to calculate probability of emergency operations' failure to control fire and prevent tank rupture. The risk is presented as a function of fire resistance rating of onboard storage.
... The hazard scenarios were determined using the HAZard Identification (HAZID) methodology. Khalil (2011Khalil ( , 2015 developed and quantified a fault tree (FT) model for gaseous H2 leakage (via permeation) through Type-III and Type-IV liners in on-board vehicular H2 storage systems. Galassi et al. (2012) described the main features of the Hydrogen Incidents and Accidents Database (HIAD) modules, namely, the Data Entry Module (DEM), the Data Retrieval Module (DRM), and the Data Analysis Module (DAM). ...
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Leaks of flammable gases from containing systems pose safety concerns in many industrial settings. In this research, state-of-the-art visual flowcharting methodology is employed to develop a probabilistic model to quantify occupational risks of fire and explosion events initiated by leaks that ignite within enclosed spaces. In this model, leak initiation time and leak type (small, medium, or large) are selected based on user-specified probability distribution function and leak probability ranges, respectively. Other inputs to the model include probability distribution of time to failure of mechanical ventilation in the enclosed space, likelihood of presence of an ignition source with energy ≥ minimum ignition energy (MIE) of formed flammable gas cloud, probability of leak detection prior to ignition, and conditional probabilities of fires and explosions, given ignition. The model checks whether randomly-selected times of leak initiation and ventilation failure are within user-specified mission time. Number of personnel present near leak source is determined by a user-selected probability distribution. Uncertainties of input probabilities are propagated through the model using Monte Carlo sampling technique. Given occurrence of an undetected gaseous leak in conjunction with presence of an ignition source, ventilation failure, and presence of personnel close to the hazard source, the model calculates frequencies of risks of fire or explosion injuries, averaged over 10⁶ Monte Carlo trials per simulation run. Functionality of proposed model is demonstrated by a hydrogen refueling station (HRS) case study in which gaseous hydrogen is postulated to leak from its compressor system. Base case and worst case scenarios as well as sensitivity cases are considered and their simulation results show that, for these postulated scenarios, compressor's small H2 leaks (unlike medium and large leaks) pose intolerable occupational risk frequencies that exceed the acceptable risk level of 1.0E-4/year as well as NFPA's selected risk guideline of 2.0E-5/year which is driven by the comparative risk to gasoline stations. To mitigate predicted occupational risks to acceptable levels, safety control measures and best practices are recommended. The proposed model can be used as a training tool for first responders to fire and explosion events initiated by leaks of flammable gases. The model allows user-specified ‘what-if’ scenarios with or without risk mitigation measures. In addition to HRS, the model can be applied to a broad range of industrial applications such as natural gas refueling stations, indoor chiller systems which employ flammable refrigerants, and warehouses equipped with hydrogen-powered forklifts. Risk insights from this model's simulations can also support safety codes & standards and root cause investigations of industrial fire and explosion events.
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Design failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis (d-FMECA) is a bottom-up, semi-quantitative risk assessment approach that is used by reliability engineers across all industries (nuclear, chemical, environmental, pharmaceuticals, aerospace, etc.) for identifying the effects of postulated components failure modes such as solenoid-operated valves (SOV), motor-operated valves (MOV), controllers, pumps, sensors of various types, printed circuit boards (PCBs). This research aims to develop a novel AI-augmented tool that guides, in real-time, the risk-analyst to a host of potential failure modes and their effects for each component contained in a bigger system. Through a user-friendly graphical interface and a robust statistical modeling backend, the AI-driven tool streamlines the risk assessment process by prompting the risk analyst to input a system’s name and subsequently generate an extensive array of failure modes and associated effects for each constituent component within the system. This AI-augmented tool allows the user to select either a simplified d-FMEA or a detailed d-FMECA for the system under investigation. This novel AI-driven tool offers significant effort and time savings in conducting d-FMECA, which is known to be a labor-intensive engineering task. In addition, this tool can be used for training risk and reliability professionals.
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Thesis research directed by: Reliability Engineering. Title from t.p. of PDF. Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2004. Includes bibliographical references. Text.
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6 The new data could be field/in-service failure data, experimental observations, or physics of failure (PoF) predictions. 7 From Table 2, the sum of end states mean probabilities of Seq-03
  • Lb Lower
  • Probability
LB ¼ lower bound probability. 6 The new data could be field/in-service failure data, experimental observations, or physics of failure (PoF) predictions. 7 From Table 2, the sum of end states mean probabilities of Seq-03, Seq-05,
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