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Local cost of seawater RO desalination based on solar PV and wind energy: Economics, global demand and the impact of full load hours
Abstract
Global water demand is increasing whilst the renewable water resource is diminishing. This has resulted in an increase in demand for seawater desalination, with reverse osmosis (RO) accounting for 65% of the 80.9 million m3/day of desalted water produced globally in 2013. A prevailing concern is high energy demand and availability of fossil fuel resources, resulting in the drive for renewable energy powered desalination systems. In the near future, the increasing desalination demand can be met through SWRO plants powered by hybrid PV-Wind-Battery and Power-to-Gas (PtG) power plants at a cost level competitive with current fossil fuel powered SWRO plants.Hybrid systems allow for higher full load hours and optimal utilization of the installed desalination capacity. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030. The levelized cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, ranges from 0.59 €/m3 – 2.81 €/m3 for the 2030 desalination demand. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is found to cost about 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way.
Supplementary resource (1)
... Water desalination plant specifications can be found in Table 6. More details on RE-powered SWRO desalination plants are provided by Caldera et al. (2015). ...
... Tab. 6: Water desalination and storage plants' specification (Caldera et al., 2015) Unit Oxygen as a byproduct of electrolysis, has a very important role in the technology used in the GtL process, particularly in the syngas production. The downstream GtL plant needs about 25% of generated oxygen in the PtG plant. ...
With growing demand for transportation fuels such as diesel and concerns about climate change, this paper introduces a new value chain design for transportation fuels and a respective business case taking into account hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chain is based on renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-togas (PtG) facilities into synthetic natural gas (SNG), which is finally converted to mainly diesel in gas-to-liquid (GtL) facilities. This RE-diesel can be shipped to everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis and methanation are done based on annual full load hours (FLh). A combination of 5 GWp single-axis tracking PV and wind power have been applied. Results show that the proposed RE-diesel value chain is competitive for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 121-191 USD/barrel (0.67 – 1.06 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-diesel is competitive with conventional diesel from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The cost range would be an upper limit for the conventional diesel price in the long-term and RE-diesel can become competitive whenever the fossil fuel prices are higher than the level mentioned and the cost assumptions expected for the year 2030 are achieved. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the RE-PtG-GtL value chain needs to be located at the best complemented solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy and a special focus on mid to long term electrolyzer efficiency improvements. The substitution of fossil fuels by hybrid PV-Wind power plants could create a PV-wind market potential in the order of terawatts.
... Water desalination plant specifications can be seen in Table VI. More details on RE-powered SWRO desalination plants are provided by Caldera et al. [29]. ...
... Water desalination plant specification[29]. ...
With growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and concerns about climate change, this paper introduces a new value chain design for LNG and a respective business case taking into account hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chain is based on renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-togas (PtG) facilities into synthetic natural gas (SNG), which is finally liquefied into LNG. This RE-LNG can be shipped everywhere in the world. The calculations for hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis and methanation are done based on both annual and hourly full load hours (FLh). To reach the minimum cost, the optimized combination of fixed-tilted and single-axis tracking PV, wind power, and battery capacities have been applied. Results show that the proposed RE-LNG value chain is competitive for Brent crude oil prices within a minimum price range of 87-145 USD/barrel, depending on assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-LNG is competitive with fossil LNG from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. This range would be an upper limit for the fossil LNG price in the long-term and RE-LNG can become competitive whenever the fossil prices are higher than the level mentioned and the cost assumptions expected for the year 2030 are achieved. The substitution of fossil fuels by hybrid PV-Wind power plants could create a PV-wind market potential in the order of 9.5 terawatts.
... It is assumed that water stress greater than 50% shall be covered by see water desalination. Transportation costs are also taken into account; calculations are described in Caldera et al. [29]. ...
... Industrial gas demand values (gas demand excluding electricity generation and residential sectors) and water demand for China, Russia, Japan and South Korea are presented in the Appendix (Table XI), gas demand values are based on the National Bureau of Statistics of China [30], the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia [31] and IEA data [32]. Desalination demand numbers are based on water stress and water consumption projection [28,29]. ...
A need for the development of a renewable energy (RE) based system has emerged from the fast rise of electricity demand and increasing ecological problems provoked by human activities, including a fossil fuel based energy sector. Availability of various types of RE resources in NorthEast Asian regions including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy resources enables the very promising vision of building a Super Grid connecting different regions' energy resources to achieve synergistic effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. The regions are composed of Japan, China, North and South Korea, Mongolia, East Siberia and Far Eastern federal districts of Russia. The energy mix of energy supply consists of distributed small-scale rooftop PV and centralized large scale solar PV, solar thermal electricity generation (CSP), wind onshore, hydropower, geothermal energy, bioenergy, and four different energy storage technologies. For every sub-region a cost-optimal mix of energy technologies and storage options is defined, optimal capacities are computed for regions interconnected by high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines, system cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each sub-region are computed, and total system LCOE of 58 – 77 €/MWh, depending on scenario assumptions, can be obtained. Integration of energy sectors leads to improved total system LCOE. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is lower in cost than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives. Solar PV is a core component for energy supply and reducing the total system costs.
... It is assumed that water stress greater than 50% shall be covered by seawater desalination. Transportation costs are also taken into account; calculations are described in Caldera et al. (2015). Industrial gas consumption is based on consumption and distribution data from central statistical database of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (2015), BP gas consumption data (BP, 2014) and IEA gas consumption projections to the year 2030 (IEA, 2014;IEA, 2013).The synthetic load data are based on public available hourly load data on a national level, e.g. for Japan but also European countries, and takes into account local data such as gross domestic product, population, temperature and power plant structure. ...
Increasing ecological problems provoked by human activities, including the fossil fuel based energy sector, emerge the development of a renewable energy (RE) based system as the way to stop pollution and global warming but also to reduce total energy system cost. Small population density and availability of various types of RE resources in Eurasian regions including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy resources enables the very promising project of building a Super Grid connecting different Eurasian regions' energy resources to reach synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. For every sub-region it is defined a cost-optimal distributed and centralized mix of energy technologies and storage options, optimal capacities and hourly generation. Charge and discharge profiles of storages are computed for regions interconnected by high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. System cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each sub-region are computed. The results show that a 100% RE-based system is lower in cost than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
... Water desalination plant specifications can be seen in Table VI. More details on RE-powered SWRO desalination plants are provided by Caldera et al. [29]. ...
Poster on the occasion of the 4th Conference on Carbon Dioxide as Feedstock for Fuels, Chemistry and Polymers in Essen, Germany, on September 29 - 30, 2015.
This paper outlines how an existing energy system can be transformed into a 100% renewable energy system. The transition is divided into a number of key stages which reflect key radical technological changes on the supply side of the energy system. Ireland is used as a case study,but in reality this reflects many typical energy systems today which use power plants for electricity, individual boilers for heat, and oil for transport. The seven stages analysed are 1) reference, 2) introduction of district heating, 3) installation of small and large-scale heat pumps,4) reducing grid regulation requirements, 5) adding flexible electricity demands and electric vehicles, 6) producing synthetic methanol/DME for transport, and finally 7) using synthetic gas to replace the remaining fossil fuels. For each stage, the technical and economic performance of the energy system is calculated. The results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system can provide the same end-user energy demands as today’s energy system and at the same price. Electricity will be the backbone of the energy system, but the flexibility in today’s electricity sector will be transferred from the supply side of the demand side in the future. Similarly, due to changes in the type of spending required in a 100% renewable energy system, this scenario will result in the creation of 100,000 additional jobs in Ireland compared to an energy system like today’s. These results are significant since they indicate that the transition to a 100% renewable energy system can begin today, without increasing the cost of energy in the short- or long-term, if the costs currently forecasted for 2050 become a reality.
Jordan is a country faced with several environmental and energy related issues. It is the Worlds' fourth most water deprived country with a water consumption of only 145 m3 per capita annually, less than a third of the established severe water poverty line. Jordan is also a country rich in wind and solar potential but practically no utilization with 99% of the produced electricity coming from imported fossil fuels resulting in high CO2 emissions and a potential security of supply issue. The utilization of reverse osmosis desalination in a combination with brine operated pump storage units and wind and (PV) photovoltaic plants can tackle both issues. The desalination plants can produce the much needed water and act as a flexible demand to increase the penetration of intermittent renewables supported by the brine operated pump storage units. This paper presents six scenarios for the development of the Jordanian energy system until the year 2050. The results have shown that the demonstrated configuration can increase the share of intermittent renewables in the production of electricity up to 76% resulting in a high reduction of fuel consumption, CO2 emissions and costs. These analyses have been performed using the EnergyPLAN advanced energy system analyses tool.
The Power-to-Gas (PtG) process chain could play a significant role in the future energy system. Renewable electric energy can be transformed into storable methane via electrolysis and subsequent methanation.
This article compares the available electrolysis and methanation technologies with respect to the stringent requirements of the PtG chain such as low CAPEX, high efficiency, and high flexibility.
Three water electrolysis technologies are considered: alkaline electrolysis, PEM electrolysis, and solid oxide electrolysis. Alkaline electrolysis is currently the cheapest technology; however, in the future PEM electrolysis could be better suited for the PtG process chain. Solid oxide electrolysis could also be an option in future, especially if heat sources are available.
Several different reactor concepts can be used for the methanation reaction. For catalytic methanation, typically fixed-bed reactors are used; however, novel reactor concepts such as three-phase methanation and micro reactors are currently under development. Another approach is the biochemical conversion. The bioprocess takes place in aqueous solutions and close to ambient temperatures.
Finally, the whole process chain is discussed. Critical aspects of the PtG process are the availability of CO2 sources, the dynamic behaviour of the individual process steps, and especially the economics as well as the efficiency.
This study presents roadmaps for each of the 50 United States to convert their all-purpose energy systems (for electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) to ones powered entirely by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The plans contemplate 80-85% of existing energy replaced by 2030 and 100% replaced by 2050. Conversion would reduce each state’s end-use power demand by a mean of ~39.3% with ~82.4% of this due to the efficiency of electrification and the rest due to end-use energy efficiency improvements. Year 2050 end-use U.S. all-purpose load would be met with ~30.9% onshore wind, ~19.1% offshore wind, ~30.7% utility-scale photovoltaics (PV), ~7.2% rooftop PV, ~7.3% concentrated solar power (CSP) with storage, ~1.25% geothermal power, ~0.37% wave power, ~0.14% tidal power, and ~3.01% hydroelectric power. Based on a parallel grid integration study, an additional 4.4% and 7.2% of power beyond that needed for annual loads would be supplied by CSP with storage and solar thermal for heat, respectively, for peaking and grid stability. Over all 50 states, converting would provide ~3.9 million 40-year construction jobs and ~2.0 million 40-year operation jobs for the energy facilities alone, the sum of which would outweigh the ~3.9 million jobs lost in the conventional energy sector. Converting would also eliminate ~62,000 (19,000-115,000) U.S. air pollution premature mortalities/yr today and ~46,000 (12,000-104,000) in 2050, avoiding ~$600 ($85-$2,400) bil./yr (2013 dollars) in 2050, equivalent to ~3.6 (0.5-14.3) percent of the 2014 U.S. gross domestic product. Converting would further eliminate ~$3.3 (1.9-7.1) tril./yr in 2050 global warming costs to the world due to U.S. emissions. These plans will result in each person in the U.S. in 2050 saving ~$260 (190-320)/yr in energy costs ($2013 dollars) and U.S. health and global climate costs per person decreasing by ~$1,500 (210-6,000)/yr and ~$8,300 (4,700-17,600)/yr, respectively. The new footprint over land required will be ~0.42% of U.S. land. The spacing area between wind turbines, which can be used for multiple purposes, will be ~1.6% of U.S. land. Thus, 100% conversions are technically and economically feasible with little downside. These roadmaps may therefore reduce social and political barriers to implementing clean-energy policies.
Depletion of water supplies for potable and irrigation use is a major problem in the rural wadi valleys of Saudi Arabia and other areas of the Middle East and North Africa. An economic analysis of supplying these villages with either desalinated seawater or treated wastewater conveyed via a managed aquifer recharge (MAR) system was conducted. In many cases, there are no local sources of water supply of any quality in the wadi valleys. The cost per cubic meter for supplying desalinated water is $2-5/m(3) plus conveyance cost, and treated wastewater via an MAR system is $0-0.50/m(3) plus conveyance cost. The wastewater reuse, indirect for potable use and direct use for irrigation, can have a zero treatment cost because it is discharged to waste in many locations. In fact, the economic loss caused by the wastewater discharge to the marine environment can be greater than the overall amortized cost to construct an MAR system, including conveyance pipelines and the operational costs of reuse in the rural environment. The MAR and associated reuse system can solve the rural water supply problem in the wadi valleys and reduce the economic losses caused by marine pollution, particularly coral reef destruction.
Photovoltaic (PV) is one of the fastest growing electricity generation technologies in the world. Average annual growth rates of global PV-installations have reached around 45% for the last 15 years, which triggered a fast and ongoing reduction of production cost in PV industry. The presented work aims at consolidating historical price and cost information, deriving refined learning curves for PV modules and systems, and analysing the main factors of learning. For c-Si modules a valid learning rate of 17% is found based on a meta-analysis of various studies. In early years, even a learning rate of 30% is observed. As an example for thin-film PV, CdTe module cost reduce by 16% as the cumulated production output doubles. Interestingly, efficiency improvements contribute only in second order to the overall cost reduction for both technologies, emphasising the relevance of production excellence and economies of scale. On PV system level, a cost reduction of 14% per doubling of cumulated installed capacity is derived. Finally, a sensitivity analysis reveals that learning rate variations are only of minor influence on the overall global PV market potential.
PV and wind power are the major renewable power technologies in most regions on earth. Depending on the interaction of solar and wind resources, PV and wind power industry will become competitors or allies. Time resolved geospatial data of global horizontal irradiation and wind speeds are used to simulate the power feed-in of PV and wind power plants assumed to be installed on an equally rated power basis in every region of a 1°x1° mesh of latitude and longitude between 65°N and 65°S. An overlap of PV and wind power full load hours is defined as measure for the complementarity of both technologies and identified as ranging between 5% and 25% of total PV and wind power feed-in. Critical overlap full load hours are introduced as a measure for energy losses that would appear if the grid was dimensioned only for one power plant of PV or wind. In result, they do not exceed 9% of total feed-in but are mainly around 3% - 4%. Thus the two major renewable power technologies must be characterized by complementing each other.
Global water planners are increasingly considering seawater desalination as an alternative to traditional freshwater supplies. Since desalination is both expensive and energy intensive, taking advantage of favorable natural and societal conditions while siting desalination facilities can provide significant financial and environmental returns. Currently, policy makers do not use a location-specific integrated analytical framework to determine where natural and societal conditions are conducive to desalination. This analysis seeks to fill that gap by demonstrating a multi-criteria, geographically-resolved methodology for identifying suitable regions for desalination infrastructure where 1) available renewable resources can offset part of the fossil energy load; 2) feedwater characteristics reduce the total energy needed for desalination; and 3) human populations have capacity and willingness to pay for desalinated water. This work demonstrates the method with a quantitative global analysis that identifies favorable sites for solar-aided seawater reverse osmosis desalination (SWRO) based on specific target criteria. Location-based data about natural conditions (solar insolation, ocean salinity, and ocean temperature) are integrated and mapped with social indicators (water stress, prevailing water prices, and population) to identify regions where solar-aided SWRO has the highest potential. This work concludes that water-stressed tropical and subtropical cities show the highest potential for economically sustainable solar-aided SWRO.
A thermodynamic study is performed on a Reverse Osmosis (RO) desalination unit with and without energy recovery device. Such a study is based on the application of mass and energy balances on each subsystem as well as on the whole unit and using the properties of saltwater modelled as ideal solution. Three configurations of the desalination unit are considered. The first configuration includes a throttling valve in the rejection of concentrated brine side while the two others incorporate a hydraulic turbine and a pressure exchanger system (PES) respectively. The results show the variation of several performance indicators with several variables such as the feed salinity and temperature and the applied pressure. Examples of these indicators are the specific energy consumption (expressed in kWh/m3 of fresh water produced) and the recovery ratio. The results show the importance of incorporating an energy recovery device when the feed salinity is high. Besides, a theoretical minimum specific energy consumption was obtained and presented for the cases with and without pressure exchanger system.
Various studies have attempted to consolidate published estimates of water use impacts of electricity generating technologies, resulting in a wide range of technologies and values based on different primary sources of literature. The goal of this work is to consolidate the various primary literature estimates of water use during the generation of electricity by conventional and renewable electricity generating technologies in the United States to more completely convey the variability and uncertainty associated with water use in electricity generating technologies.
This manual is a guide for analyzing the economics of energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE) technologies and projects. It is intended: (1) to help analysts determine the appropriate approach or type of analysis and the appropriate level of detail, and (2) to assist EE analysts in completing consistent analyses using standard assumptions and bases, when appropriate. Included are analytical techniques that are commonly required for the economic analysis of EE technologies and projects. The manual consists of six sections: Introduction, Fundamentals, Selection Criteria Guide, Economic Measures, Special Considerations for Conservation and Renewable Energy Systems, and References. A glossary and eight appendices are also included. Each section has a brief introductory statement, a presentation of necessary formulae, a discussion, and when appropriate, examples and descriptions of data and data availability. The objective of an economic analysis is to provide the information needed to make a judgment or a decision. The most complete analysis of an investment in a technology or a project requires the analysis of each year of the life of the investment, taking into account relevant direct costs, indirect and overhead costs, taxes, and returns on investment, plus any externalities, such as environmental impacts, that are relevant to the decision to be made. However, it is important to consider the purpose and scope of a particular analysis at the outset because this will prescribe the course to follow. The perspective of the analysis is important, often dictating the approach to be used. Also, the ultimate use of the results of an analysis will influence the level of detail undertaken. The decision-making criteria of the potential investor must also be considered.
A need for the development of a renewable energy (RE) based system has emerged from the fast rise of electricity demand and increasing ecological problems provoked by human activities, including a fossil fuel based energy sector. Availability of various types of RE resources in NorthEast Asian regions including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy resources enables the very promising vision of building a Super Grid connecting different regions' energy resources to achieve synergistic effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. The regions are composed of Japan, China, North and South Korea, Mongolia, East Siberia and Far Eastern federal districts of Russia. The energy mix of energy supply consists of distributed small-scale rooftop PV and centralized large scale solar PV, solar thermal electricity generation (CSP), wind onshore, hydropower, geothermal energy, bioenergy, and four different energy storage technologies. For every sub-region a cost-optimal mix of energy technologies and storage options is defined, optimal capacities are computed for regions interconnected by high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines, system cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each sub-region are computed, and total system LCOE of 58 – 77 €/MWh, depending on scenario assumptions, can be obtained. Integration of energy sectors leads to improved total system LCOE. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is lower in cost than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives. Solar PV is a core component for energy supply and reducing the total system costs.
A clear consensus exists in German society that renewable energy resources have to play a dominant role in the future German energy supply system. However, many questions are still under discussion; for instance the relevance of the different technologies such as photovoltaic systems and wind energy converters installed offshore in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Concerns also exist about the cost of a future energy system mainly based on renewable energy. In the work presented here we tried to answer some of those questions. Guiding questions for this study were: (1) is it possible to meet the German energy demand with 100% renewable energy, considering the available technical potential of the main renewable energy resources? (2) what is the overall annual cost of such an energy system once it has been implemented? (3) what is the best combination of renewable energy converters, storage units, energy converters and energy-saving measures? In order to answer these questions, we carried out many simulation calculations using REMod-D, a model we developed for this purpose. This model is described in Part I of this publication. To date this model covers only part of the energy system, namely the electricity and heat sectors, which correspond to about 62% of Germany's current energy demand. The main findings of our work indicate that it is possible to meet the total electricity and heat demand (space heating, hot water) of the entire building sector with 100% renewable energy within the given technical limits. This is based on the assumption that the heat demand of the building sector is significantly reduced by at least 60% or more compared to today's demand. Another major result of our analysis shows that - once the transformation of the energy system has been completed - supplying electricity and heat only from renewables is no more expensive than the existing energy supply.
Further development of the North-East Asian energy system is at a crossroads due to severe limitations of the current conventional energy based system. For North-East Asia it is proposed that the excellent solar and wind resources of the Gobi desert could enable the transformation towards a 100% renewable energy system. An hourly resolved model describes an energy system for North-East Asia, subdivided into 14 regions interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grids. Simulations are made for highly centralized, decentralized and countrywide grids scenarios. The results for total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are 0.065 and 0.081 €/(kW&h) for the centralized and decentralized approaches for 2030 assumptions. The presented results for 100% renewable resources-based energy systems are lower in LCOE by about 30–40% than recent findings in Europe for conventional alternatives. This research clearly indicates that a 100% renewable resources based energy system is THE real policy option.
The adoption of desalination for agricultural purposes in countries such as Australia has been very limited, with only a small number of cases available to demonstrate its suitability. This can be compared to countries such as Spain where the uptake has been significant. A number of suitable technologies such as reverse osmosis and electrodialysis are available to provide desalinated water, but not at a cost comparable to that for water commonly utilised for agricultural purposes. The use of blended waters, where the quality of the water is tailored to the crop may go part way to addressing this cost differential. However, if the overall efficiency of the combined production of water and food, as well as opportunities for better soil management is considered, then desalination's applicability to agriculture becomes more viable. The use of state of the art technologies for the provision of desalinated water for agriculture is most likely to be cost effective in a tightly controlled environment, using agricultural practices with the most-effective water use and crops with high productivity. Such conditions are often associated with greenhouses and the production of high-value irrigated crops, where the cost of water is small compared to the infrastructure investment.
Recent studies and projects have shown that a combination of a reverse osmosis desalination plant with a wind power supply is technologically feasible if the plant operates with fluctuating and intermittent loads and in this way follows the variable energy supply characteristic of a wind turbine. The direct integration of renewable energy into a reverse osmosis plant is described in this paper, as well as its relation with energy consumption as a consequence of the plant working under variable load conditions. The data obtained confirm the wide operating range of the plant with respect to the power available and the system specifications.
Experimental results are shown for different operating regimes, with significant data being obtained for the reverse osmosis process. The development of systems as described in this paper opens up a range of possibilities for expansion due to their excellent characteristics in terms of the new concept of plant operation at different pressures and flow rates along with the use of water production storage. According to the results shown in this paper, optimum plant performance was observed for a power input approximately 20% lower than the design specifications.
Power-to-gas (PtG) technology has received considerable attention in recent years. However, it has been rather difficult to find profitable business models and niche markets so far. PtG systems can be applied in a broad variety of input and output conditions, mainly determined by prices for electricity, hydrogen, oxygen, heat, natural gas, bio-methane, fossil CO2 emissions, bio-CO2 and grid services, but also full load hours and industrial scaling. Optimized business models are based on an integrated value chain approach for a most beneficial combination of input and output parameters. The financial success is evaluated by a standard annualized profit and loss calculation and a subsequent return on equity consideration. Two cases of PtG integration into an existing pulp mill as well as a nearby bio-diesel plant are taken into account. Commercially available PtG technology is found to be profitable in case of a flexible operation mode offering electricity grid services. Next generation technology, available at the end of the 2010s, in combination with renewables certificates for the transportation sector could generate a return on equity of up to 100% for optimized conditions in an integrated value chain approach. This outstanding high profitability clearly indicates the potential for major PtG markets to be developed rather in the transportation sector and chemical industry than in the electricity sector as seasonal storage option as often proposed.
Further development of the North-East Asian energy system is at a crossroads due to severe limitations of the current conventional energy based system. The high growth rates of new renewable energy technology capacities enable the transformation of the energy system. For North-East Asia it is proposed that the excellent solar resources of the Gobi desert could be utilized for load centers in China, Korea and Japan as a contribution to the energy transformation ahead. Based on that idea we have established a spatially and hourly resolved energy system model focused on 100% renewable energy supply for the electricity demand. The area is subdivided into 14 regions, which can be interconnected by a high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid. Three different scenarios have been defined for highly centralized and highly decentralized energy futures for financial and technical assumptions for the reference years 2020 and 2030. The results for total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), including generation, curtailment, storage and HVDC transmission grid, are 0.077 €/kWh for the highly centralized approach for 2020 assumptions and 0.064 €/kWh and 0.081 €/kWh for the centralized and decentralized approaches for 2030 assumptions. The importing regions are Japan, Korea, East China and South China, which receive their energy mainly from Northeast China, North China and Central China. The electricity generation shares of the total LCOE optimized system design deviate from 6% for PV and 79% for wind energy (centralized, 2020) to 39% for PV and 47% for wind energy (decentralized, 2030) and additional hydro power utilization. Decrease in storage LCOE reduces the benefit of HVDC transmission considerably; nonetheless, the centralized system design is still lower in LCOE for the modeled system and applied assumptions. New effects of storage interaction have been found, such as discharging of batteries in the night for charging power-to-gas as a least total system cost solution and discharging of power-to-gas for power export via HVDC transmission. The presented results for 100% renewable resources-based energy systems are lower in LCOE by about 30-40% than recent findings in Europe for the non-sustainable alternatives nuclear energy, natural gas and coal based carbon capture and storage technologies. This research work clearly indicates that a 100% renewable resources-based energy system is THE real policy option.
Disclaimer: Working papers contain preliminary research, analysis, findings, and recommendations. They are circulated to stimulate timely discussion and critical feedback and to influence ongoing debate on emerging issues. Most working papers are eventually published in another form and their content may be revised. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Awareness around the physical, regulatory and reputa-tional water risks to companies and their investors is on the rise; and robust, comparable and comprehensive data is needed to help assess these water-related risks. In response to this demand, the World Resources Institute (WRI) Markets and Enterprise Program developed the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas, a comprehensive and publicly available global database and interactive mapping tool that provides information on water-related risks world-wide. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas provides a set of indicators that capture a wide range of variables, and aggregates them into comprehensive scores using the Water Risk Framework. Companies can use this informa-tion to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. This working paper describes the Water Risk Framework, the indicators it includes, and the methodology used to combine them into aggregated, comprehensive risk scores.
Energy consumption is a key factor which influences the freshwater production cost in reverse osmosis (RO) process. Energy recovery and reuse options have already been very well explored in the current desalination industry. Achieving minimum theoretical specific energy consumption for water recovery is not feasible due to effects of concentration polarization, membrane fouling and hydraulic resistance to permeate flow. Due to these limitations, energy recovery along with water recovery can be a better alternative to improve energy consumption and economics of the RO process both in small and large scale applications. This paper reviews currently available process configurations, operating strategies, and discusses potential pathways to recover and recycle energy and water to improve the performance of the RO process.
Fuel-parity, i.e. the intersection of fossil fuel prices with PV generation cost, represents a major milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion besides grid-parity. A fuel-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Preconditions for a successful hybridization of PV and fossil fuel power plants are discussed. The global fossil fuel power plant capacity is analysed for the economic hybridization market potential on a georeferenced localized basis for all fossil fuel power plants. LCOE of fossil fuel power plants are converging with those of PV in sunny regions, but in contrast to PV are mainly driven by fuel cost. As a consequence of cost trends this analysis estimates an enormous worldwide market potential for PV power plants by the end of this decade in the order of at least 900 GWp installed capacity without any electricity grid constraints leading to a fast diffusion of hybrid PV-Fossil power plants. The complementary power feed-in of PV and wind power plants might result in hybrid PV-Wind-Fossil power plants in regions of good solar and wind resources. In the mid- to long-term the remaining fossil fuels might be substituted by renewable power methane by using the existing downstream natural gas infrastructure. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
Desalination capacity has rapidly increased in the last decade because of the increase in water demand and a significant reduction in desalination cost as a result of significant technological advances, especially in the reverse osmosis process. The cost of desalinated seawater has fallen below US$0.50/m3 for a large scale seawater reverse osmosis plant at a specific location and conditions while in other locations the cost is 50% higher (US$1.00/m3) for a similar facility. In addition to capital and operating costs, other parameters such as local incentives or subsidies may also contribute to the large difference in desalted water cost between regions and facilities. Plant suppliers and consultants have their own cost calculation methodologies, but they are confidential and provide water costs with different accuracies. The few existing costing methodologies and software packages such as WTCost© and DEEP provide an estimated cost with different accuracies and their applications are limited to specific conditions. Most of the available cost estimation tools are of the black box type, which provide few details concerning the parameters and methodologies applied for local conditions. Many desalination plants built recently have greater desalinated water delivery costs caused by special circumstances, such as plant remediation or upgrades, local variation in energy costs, and site-specific issues in raw materials costs (e.g., tariffs and transportation). Therefore, the availability of a more transparent and unique methodology for estimating the cost will help in selecting an appropriate desalination technology suitable for specific locations with consideration of all the parameters influencing the cost. A techno-economic evaluation and review of the costing aspects and the main parameters influencing the total water cost produced by different desalination technologies are herein presented in detail. Some recent developments, such as the increase of unit capacity, improvements in process design and materials, and the use of hybrid systems have contributed to cost reduction as well as reduction in energy consumption. The development of new and emerging low-energy desalination technologies, such as adsorption desalination, will have an impact on cost variation estimation in the future.
An arid climate with limited water resources and a growing tourism industry lead to water shortages in many coastal zones. Due to increasing demand, alternatives have to be found, e.g. desalination and long-distance water piping (equal to or further than 30 km), ecological sanitation, wastewater reuse or water demand management. This paper presents a cost comparison for two options to supply water of drinking water quality: Option 1 — Desalination with the reverse osmosis technology, or Option 2 — Long-distance water piping from the Nile, for the case of the tourist city of Sharm El Sheikh (Sharm) at the Red Sea in South Sinai, Egypt. Available water resources and current as well as future water demand figures for Sharm are presented. 91% of the current water demand stems from tourism; water is supplied mainly by privately owned RO desalination plants (86%). To analyze costs for Option 1, we compiled RO desalination plant costs (capital and O&M) for 14 RO plants in Egypt and 7 elsewhere for comparison. Unit production cost (US$/m3) of water from small RO desalination plants in Egypt is in most cases lower than international trends for similar small capacity plants (250 to 5,000 m3/d), but unit O&M costs are higher. For Option 2, we present cost data for four long-distance piping projects in Egypt which pump groundwater or treated Nile water to cities in South Sinai including Sharm. We found that unit capital costs for those pipelines which are longer than 140 km, are in fact above the cost of a possible RO desalination plant at any flow capacity. For unit production cost, desalination costs are lower than long-distance piping starting from pipelines with 300 km length or more and capacity ≥2000 m3/d. Empirical basic cost equations are produced to calculate unit capital cost (US$/m3/d) and unit production cost (US$/m3) for both options in dependence of capacity for Option 1, and capacity and pipe length for Option 2. This paper is part of a more comprehensive research project to develop a decision support system for integrated water resources management in tourism-dominated arid coastal regions.
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