Content uploaded by Johannes Ulrich Siebert
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Johannes Ulrich Siebert on Jun 11, 2016
Content may be subject to copyright.
A preview of the PDF is not available
Creating More and Better Alternatives for Decisions Using Objectives
Abstract and Figures
The quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. This research, based on five empirical studies of important personally relevant decisions, examines the ability of decision makers to create alternatives for their important decisions and the effectiveness of different stimuli for improving this ability. For decisions for which the full set of potentially desirable alternatives is not readily apparent, our first study indicates that decision makers identify less than half of their alternatives and that the average quality of the overlooked alternatives is the same as those identified. Four other studies provide insight about how to use objectives to stimulate the alternative-creation process of decision makers and confirm with high significance that such use enhances both the number and quality of created alternatives. Using results of the studies, practical guidelines to create alternatives for important decisions are presented.
Figures - uploaded by Johannes Ulrich Siebert
Author content
All figure content in this area was uploaded by Johannes Ulrich Siebert
Content may be subject to copyright.
... This problem-solving approach is called alternative-focused thinking. [20][21][22] Focusing on alternatives is a limited way of thinking through decisions. It is reactive rather than proactive. ...
... Improved decisions result from the insights that thinking provides and from specific processes that view decisions through a "value-based lens". [20,21] Shifting to this way of thinking can greatly improve decision-making. Values not only lead to the identification of better alternatives but also improve the decision-making process in general. ...
... Discussions with stakeholders can also broaden one's own perspective. [20,21] When identifying objectives, it is important to formulate them precisely. It is advisable to describe objectives with an object, a verb and a preference direction, for example, "reduce error rate", "reduce waiting time" or "increase quality". ...
Manufacturing companies have to deal with an increasingly turbulent environment, characterized by shorter product life and innovation cycles with a growing number of variants, high volatility in demand and increasing globalization. Extremely short-term and significant changes such as the COVID-19 pandemic (2019), global economic recession (2018) or the global financial crisis (2008), represent a new perspective of circumstances. To be able to react quickly to unforeseen external influences, manufacturing companies are looking for ways to deal with sudden changes. Resilience is the ability of a company to withstand external social, economic or political changes and to adjust quickly to new conditions. The central element for companies to maintain productivity in their value creation is the ability to act – not to react. This can be done, for example, by fundamentally redesigning structures and processes. In this context, resilience encompasses all the tasks required to manage the essential adjustments in the company or supply chain. This includes early identification, planning, implementation and control of appropriate measures as well as the time for recovery after internal and external disruptions. The paper focuses on the identification and characterization of objectives for resilience to enable a process to implement bouncing forward abilities in contrast of the common bouncing back abilities. A value-focused thinking approach is used to create a multi-level system of objectives for resilience and enabling bouncing forward. For measuring and evaluating resilience this system of objectives integrates key performance indicators. On this basis, a Resilience Balanced Scorecard is developed. On the one hand, this enables a balanced view of financial and non-financial aspects. On the other hand, the Resilience Balanced Scorecard serves as a strategic management tool for the objective-driven rethinking and redesign of manufacturing companies.
... Research has shown that applying this method has multiple advantages [7]. For example, using objectives to generate alternatives can lead to more than double the number of alternatives [21]. Additionally, it helps decision-makers identify opportunities to prevent future problems rather than react to decision problems [5]. ...
Research has shown that decision-makers omit a significant number of their objectives when making a decision. This study examines the consequences of incomplete objectives on decision making, i.e., how does omitting objectives affect identifying the most promising alternative? We investigate this question using a dataset of 945 observed decisions. These decisions were developed by students using the decision-skills and training tool entscheidungsnavi.com. The tool guides students in a step-by-step process based on value-focused thinking, multi-attribute utility theory, and debiasing methods. Results show that omitting objectives significantly reduces the chances of identifying the most promising alternative. Hence, neglecting only 20% of the objectives is sufficient to mislead more than one in four decisions. We have found three factors that influence this risk of misidentifying the most promising alternative: (1) the weight of the omitted objectives; (2) the consensus on the best alternative across all objectives; and (3) the consensus on the ranking of all alternatives across all objectives.
... Back in the 1990s, Keeney introduced the concept of Value-Focused Thinking (VFT), which has proven itself in many practical applications (e.g., [20][21][22]. If DMs are not supported during this phase of structuring, there is a risk that the problem will not be properly defined [23], the objectives will be incomplete or not fundamental [24], and potentially attractive alternatives will be overlooked [25]. ...
The Entscheidungsnavi is an open-source decision support system based on multi-attribute utility theory, that offers various methods for dealing with uncertainties. To model decisions with uncertainties, decision-makers can use two categories: Forecast and Parameter Uncertainties. Forecast Uncertainty is modeled with (combined) influence factors using discrete, user-defined probability distributions or predefined ‘worst-median-best’ distributions. Parameter Uncertainty allows imprecision for utilities, objective weights, and probability distributions. To analyze these uncertainties, the Entscheidungsnavi offers several methods and tools, like a robustness check, based on (Monte Carlo) simulations and a sensitivity analysis. The objective weight analysis provides insights into the effects of different objective weight combinations. Indicator impacts, tornado diagrams, and risk profiles visualize the impact of uncertainties in a decision under risk. Risk profiles also enable a check for stochastic and simulation dominance. This article presents the complete range of methods for dealing with uncertainties in the Entscheidungsnavi using a hypothetical case study.
... The success of the value-focused thinking approach has been proven in many studies. In their work, Siebert and Keeney [62] show that more and better options for action can be generated with the help of this approach than with conventional approaches. A comprehensive overview of further studies on value-focused thinking can be found in Parnell et al. [63]. ...
In March 2020, the WHO declared the coronavirus a pandemic. Since then, the German government has tried to control the spread of the virus with various restrictions. These restrictions had a direct impact on the life of German students. In this study, we investigate to what extent the restrictions led to a change of value priorities of German students. From January 2019 to January 2022, we conducted a cross-sectional study with four measurement points and, in total, 1,328 participants. Two measurement points were before the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Germany, one in the second lockdown phase and the third after two years in the pandemic. In this study, the students were asked to indicate their value priorities while solving a real-world decision problem important to them. Results suggest increased value priorities of the values Intellectual Fulfillment and Environment and Nature and a decrease of Family and Partner value priority as a direct effect of the second lockdown phase. We also found small differences regarding value priorities between the male and female subjects. The data show bounce-back effects as the pandemic became more normal to the students. In the long run, value priorities seem to be stable, with the exception of a longer-lasting increase in Freedom and Independence.
... This process known as alternative-focused thinking. Keeney proposes an alternative method, called value-focused thinking (VFT) [10]. In VFT, the emphasis is on identifying values first, converting them into objectives, and using these objectives to generate solution alternatives. ...
PT X is a construction company with clients spread among Central Java, West Java, Papua, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi. This company experienced financial problem and with the absence of financial bookkeeping, the financial issue was difficult to trace and each manager and also the owner had different perceptions toward the financial problem. One said that it was caused by bad financial investment decision, many said that it is because client late payment, while the other said that it is due to lack of orders and competition. In other word, this problem is still a perceived financial problem. This research was conducted to find the root cause of perceived financial problem in PT X as well as to find the best solution to solve it. By establishing 2 methods that consisted of fault tree analysis (FTA) and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (fuzzy AHP), employing the thinking framework of value-focused thinking (VFT), the best solution was decided. FTA was used to identify the root cause of the problem which was bad investment decision. After that, reverse brainstorming was conducted to find all possible solutions. Before jumping into alternative solutions, VFT, a thinking framework, identified that control and simplicity was the value that the owner considered. 3 alternative solutions which were asking to financial consultant, hiring financial analyst, and training current financial manager, then analysed using fuzzy AHP with context suitability, sustainability, time needed, and cost as the criterion, and found out that training current financial manager is the best alternative to be chosen.
Purpose
This study explores the role of proactive decision-making in enhancing academic motivation and career calling among university students in Central Asia. It aims to investigate how proactive traits and cognitive skills influence career calling and academic persistence while examining the moderating effects of demographic factors.
Design/methodology/approach
A convenience sample of 380 undergraduate business students from Kazakhstan was surveyed using validated scales for proactive decision-making, career calling and academic motivation. Data analysis involved correlation, regression and mediation tests using SPSS to evaluate relationships between variables and test the mediating role of career calling in the proactive decision-making-academic motivation link.
Findings
Proactive decision-making was found to significantly enhance career calling and academic motivation, with career calling partially mediating the relationship between proactive decision-making and intrinsic/extrinsic motivation. In addition, demographic variables, such as gender and GPA, moderated the effects of proactive decision-making on academic motivation.
Originality/value
This research contributes to the understanding of proactive decision-making in the educational context, particularly within international business education, by highlighting its role in shaping career aspirations and academic engagement. It provides new insights into the interplay between personality, decision-making and academic motivation in a Central Asian setting.
Public policy and environmental decisions are complex. They comprise high uncertainty and affect many people with different interests. Making trade-offs between achieving environmental and socio-economic objectives is inevitable. I highlight recent research and the many interesting opportunities for behavioral decision analysis, hereby including some literature from other fields. Following a typical Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) process, we start with problem structuring, specifically by identifying stakeholders, generating objectives and reducing these to a viable set, and generating alternatives. I only shortly cover making predictions, and focus on preference elicitation, which is especially prone to biases. I introduce preference construction and behavioral issues related to eliciting marginal value and utility functions, and weights. I also introduce online preference elicitation and gamification. For MCDA modeling, we should check that stakeholders agree with model assumptions. To deal with uncertainty in practice, I propose stepwise interactive sensitivity analyses. Throughout, I reference application examples and summarize research opportunities. We need to understand preference construction processes in order to elicit preferences efficiently in real-world decisions. This requires experimental and process research across cases. We still lack proven approaches that are easily applicable by practitioners and that meet high standards of academic rigor and consistency.
Brainstorming can be a useful technique to create alternatives for complex decisions. To enhance the quality and innovativeness of the created alternatives, value-focused brainstorming incorporates two features of value-focused thinking into the traditional brainstorming procedures. First, it explicitly identifies the valued aspects of potential alternatives, specified as distinct objectives, to guide brainstormers to create alternatives of greater value. Second, all participants in a brainstorm individually create alternatives prior to any anchoring on group discussions, which will enhance getting the full range of each individual's thoughts articulated. Concepts and procedures of the approach are discussed. A public policy application, done to address recommendations following the World Trade Center disaster, illustrates the approach by creating alternatives to improve emergency evacuation of individuals from large buildings.
In a couple of classical studies, Keeney proposed two sets of variables labelled as value‐focused thinking (VFT) and alternative‐focused thinking (AFT). Value‐focused thinking (VFT), he argued, is a creative method that centres on the different decision objectives and how as many alternatives as possible may be generated from them. Alternative‐focused thinking (AFT), on the other hand, is a method in which the decision maker takes notice of all the available alternatives and then makes a choice that seems to fit the problem best. The impact of these two methods on idea generation was measured using a sample of employees. The results revealed that employees in the value‐focused thinking condition (VFT) produced fewer ideas. Thus, value‐focused thinking (VFT) is not only able to facilitate ideation fluency but also to constrain it. Factors such as cognitive effort and motivation may play a part here. However, the quality of the ideas was judged to be higher in terms of creativity and innovativeness. Hence, value‐focused thinking (VFT) seems to have a positive impact on the quality of ideas in terms of creativity and innovativeness regardless of ideation fluency. Implications for the design of idea management systems are discussed.
In this paper the initial phase of decision processes is conceptualized as the development of a structural representation of relevant knowledge. Goals are viewed as playing an important role in representing decision problems when they have some specific content and are not purely formal (e. g., maximize SEU). A network model is proposed far the representation of goals and actions, and several assumptions are made regarding the spread of activation through the network. In an experiment, hypotheses about the effects of two factors were investigated: Goal explidtness (E) was varied by presenting to Ss goal hierarchies of different specificity (one to three levels), and goal importance (R) was varied by letting Ss either rank-order goals with respect to their personal priorities, or not The results show that the number of actions generated increases with the degree of goal explidtness, thus supporting the Ss creative search process, whereas the number of actions is lower for Ss who focus on their own values compared to Ss who do not, thus pointing to ego involvement as a factor restricting creativity. On the other hand, the actions generated by the personally involved group were rated higher on goal achievement scales than the actions generated by the other group. The results are in accordance with the model which, however, needs elaboration.
The development of creative alternatives that have the potential to create high value for the organization is one of the most important tasks of the decision analyst. This chapter identifies the characteristics of a good set of alternatives. The decision analyst’s goal is to create a small set of alternatives that are feasible, complete, compelling, and diverse. The chapter presents the obstacles to creating a good set of alternatives. James Adams posits a series of conceptual blocks that he defines as "mental walls that block the problem-solver from correctly perceiving a problem or conceiving its solution". These blocks as adapted from Adams can be summarized as follows: perceptual blocks, emotional blocks, cultural and environmental blocks, intellectual and expressive blocks. The chapter discusses the expansive and reductive phases of generating a good set of alternatives. It provides the suggestions for improving the alternative set. Controlled Vocabulary Termsdecision analysis
Decision analysis stands on a foundation of hundreds of years of philosophical and practical thought about uncertainty and decision-making. The accomplishments and promise of the field are impressive, yet it has not become commonplace even in very important decisions. While human nature may pose an ultimate limitation, maintaining clarity of concept and exploiting progress in the realms of scope, skill, and efficiency should lead to more widespread use.
A central conceptual distinction is that between normative and descriptive views of decision-making. We discuss the importance of maintaining this distinction in the face of attempts to compromise.
The procedures for formulating, eliciting, evaluating, and appraising the decision problem are all experiencing major improvements. The strategy-generation table helps in finding creative alternatives. Decision quality concepts permit us to assure both effectiveness and efficiency in analyzing decision problems. The influence diagram provides new clarity to the conversation between decision-maker and analyst, allowing representations that are both easily understandable and mathematically consistent. The clarity test makes sure we know what we are talking about regardless of what we are saying about it. Direct and indirect values illuminate preferences. Generic risk attitude considerations indicate how to relate corporate risk tolerance to the financial measures of the corporation. Spreadsheet, decision tree, and influence diagram programs speed evaluation. Intelligent decision systems realized in computers offer promise of providing the benefits of decision analysis on a broader scale than ever before. Decision analysis is now poised for a breakthrough in its usefulness to human beings.
Subjects were asked to list as many choices as they could in response to typical problems of personal choice. Seven conditions were compared with respect to the number of choices generated. In three conditions, subjects were told what the decision maker's objectives might be, and were asked to think of choices that might satisfy these objectives. In two conditions subjects were shown examples of possible choices, either organized in categories or listed randomly. Two control conditions were used. All subjects responded to the same pretest problem, then responded to two test problems. When the objectives were presented to subjects one at a time, the number of choices was greater than in other conditions; among the other conditions, however, there were no differences in overall number of choices. The two conditions in which examples were shown did produce more choices related to the examples. These results may be useful for helping a person to generate a complete list of alternatives when using formal methods of decision analysis.