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Evaluation of policies to reduce transportation pollution using system dynamics
Abstract
Pollution caused by road transportation is the major factor affecting human health and adversely affecting the global wanning. In the study, a system dynamics model has been applied to forecast vehicle emissions from road transport to evaluate policies in the transportation management. The proposed model was applied to evaluate and compare three transportation policy scenarios including road expansion, public transit incentive and enforcement of quality norms for vehicles. The pollution emission data is taken in Chennai, Tamil Nadu. The pollution in the study area will increase substantially if no management plans are implemented. The impact of population increase on transportation pollution has also been considered. It was found that among the proposed policies, implementation of the transit incentive policy to adopt public transports and the implementation of Bharat Stage IV norms for vehicles proved to be efficient in reducing the transport pollution to a great extent.
... Manohar et al 2014 69 Evaluation of policies to reduce transportation pollution using system dynamics. ...
Introduction
Applying a complex systems perspective to public health evaluation may increase the relevance and strength of evidence to improve health and reduce health inequalities. In this review of methods, we aimed to: (i) classify and describe different complex systems methods in evaluation applied to public health; and (ii) examine the kinds of evaluative evidence generated by these different methods.
Methods
We adapted critical review methods to identify evaluations of public health interventions that used systems methods. We conducted expert consultation, searched electronic databases (Scopus, MEDLINE, Web of Science), and followed citations of relevant systematic reviews. Evaluations were included if they self-identified as using systems- or complexity-informed methods and if they evaluated existing or hypothetical public health interventions. Case studies were selected to illustrate different types of complex systems evaluation.
Findings
Seventy-four unique studies met our inclusion criteria. A framework was developed to map the included studies onto different stages of the evaluation process, which parallels the planning, delivery, assessment, and further delivery phases of the interventions they seek to inform; these stages include: 1) theorising; 2) prediction (simulation); 3) process evaluation; 4) impact evaluation; and 5) further prediction (simulation). Within this framework, we broadly categorised methodological approaches as mapping, modelling, network analysis and ‘system framing’ (the application of a complex systems perspective to a range of study designs). Studies frequently applied more than one type of systems method.
Conclusions
A range of complex systems methods can be utilised, adapted, or combined to produce different types of evaluative evidence. Further methodological innovation in systems evaluation may generate stronger evidence to improve health and reduce health inequalities in our complex world.
... It is estimated that the greenhouse gases (GHG) are mainly responsible for rising temperature in the next fifty years and this would be the period in which world will strictly adopt the policies to control the emissions of carbon dioxide and other Green House Gases (GHG). In India the polices are recommended by Gunasel in which he proposed suggestions like the rapid use of public transport, use pooling system, increase usage of electric cars, etc. to the authorities for the control of CO 2 and other pollutants [16] . ...
... It is estimated that the greenhouse gases (GHG) are mainly responsible for rising temperature in the next fifty years and this would be the period in which world will strictly adopt the policies to control the emissions of carbon dioxide and other Green House Gases (GHG). In India the polices are recommended by Gunasel in which he proposed suggestions like the rapid use of public transport, use pooling system, increase usage of electric cars, etc. to the authorities for the control of CO 2 and other pollutants [16] . ...
Solid waste management study was conducted at a selected university in Karachi, Pakistan with the overall aim to provide an input for a sustainable integrated solid waste management system. Existing practices of solid waste management at the university campus were evaluated including the quantification, characterization, economic analysis and composting potential. Results of this study reveal that about 2,033 kg of solid waste/month (24.5 tons/annual) is generated from the university campus. Out of the total waste generated, about 67.8 % is the recyclable and reusable plastic, paper and metal while, the remaining (about 32%) is mostly organic waste generated from various facilities of the university. Economic analysis carried during this study indicate that about 252,012 Pak rupees annually can be earned from selling the recyclable and reusable inorganic solid waste. Amount generated from waste selling can be used to operate the existing solid waste management system more sustainably. Study also indicate that about 500 kg of good quality compost per month can be prepared from the organic waste including food and yard waste that can be used for existing horticultural activities at the university. To move towards the sustainable integrated solid waste management system, there should be proper system of waste collection, segregation, reselling and composting of the organic waste at the university under study.
... It is now widely accepted that the major driver of rising temperatures are anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O) which are largely related to the burning of fossil fuels [1]. Besides of this, the related pollution, e.g., caused by road transportation, affects adversely human health [2]. Because of these reasons, stringent antipollution laws are imposed by the governments, which forces researchers to develop more efficient engines with lower emission levels. ...
This paper presents the development of a complete simulation model for a mechanical in-line injection system feed with diesel, biodiesel, bioethanol fuel blends. The mathematical model is built by using the AVL Boost™ Hydsim software, while the required input data is carefully derived by making use of existing data as well as formulas and numerical procedures described in this work. This setup enables relatively efficient formulation and set-up of the mathematical model as well as consistent and reasonably accurate derivation of input data. The derived model is used to simulate the injection processes of various bioethanol-biodiesel and bioethanol-diesel fuel blends. The simulation results are compared to experimental data obtained on a Friedman-Maier type 12H100_h test bed at ambient temperature and several operating regimes. The results show that the compared injection pressure and needle lift histories are generally in a good agreement with the experimental ones. Consequently, the simulation model presented is fast and accurate enough to be engaged in various numerical procedures, ranging from investigations of influences of bioethanol addition to injection system optimization.
A coefficient-based vehicular exhaust emission model is being developed jointly with the variable-grid urban airshed model (UAM-V) of Systems Applications International (SAI), and integrated within a GIS (ArcInfo) framework. When coupled with a road network, traffic features and meteorological as well as geographical databases, this framework produces a Traffic Emission Information System (TEIS). With this TEIS, the emission coefficients of CO, NOx and VOC for Sydney in the calendar year 2000 are derived; and the emission rates of the pollutants are then estimated using sample traffic profile data for the Sydney metropolitan area. Finally, ongoing improvements to the system are presented.
Air pollution has become a growing problem in megacities and large urban areas through out the globe, and transportation is recognized as the major source of air pollution in many cities, especially in developing countries. Contribution of automobiles is reported in the range of 40 to 80% of the total air pollution. The challenge facing megacities is how to reduce the adverse environmental impacts and other negative effects of transportation without giving up the benefits of mobility. The dilemma becomes most pressing under conditions of rapid urban growth, which is likely to increase travel demand significantly.
The paper is aimed at understanding the problem of vehicular pollution vis-a-vis ambient air quality for a highly traffic affected megacity, Delhi, wherein, the contribution of transport sector was estimated to be as high as 72%. An effort has been made to review and evaluate the benefits (in terms of improved air quality) of the technological interventions/policies adopted for vehicular pollution control in Delhi. It also highlights the outcome of the efforts and suggests further improvements thereon. The importance of public participation and awareness are also discussed. The paper focuses on deriving the benefits of the implementation of management strategies, supported by scientific and technical data/interpretation, so that the people can realize and participate in the government's endeavor for clean city drive in a more effective manner.
Córdoba, as well as many other Latin American cities, is facing problems concerning air pollution. The increase in the number of cars, the poor control on emissions and the little use of catalytic converters, produce a great amount of toxic gases and particulate. Many cities have started air quality measurement programs being the size of the network strongly dependent on the available funds. In 1995, Córdoba started a measurement campaign with two mobile stations. A major part of the city has been characterized, mostly the city center and the suburban zone. Lack of data at the prevailing wind direction is the major shortcoming, but this is mainly a political decision. In this work, we review the air quality measurements performed, and we attempt to explain the causes for the low ozone values found.
This chapter discusses the problems of air pollution and road traffic in developing countries. Motorized road vehicles are the primary means of transporting passengers and freight throughout the developing world because of their versatility, flexibility, and low initial cost as compared to other transport modes. Over the last two decades, motor vehicles have emerged as a critical source of urban air pollution in much of the developing world. Pollutant levels in megacities, such as Bangkok, Mexico City, and Cairo, far exceed those in any city in industrialized countries. Experimentation with alternative fuels, such as electricity, LPG, CNG, etc., has met with varying degrees of success. Factors such as higher initial costs and subsidies, relative fuel prices, public inertia and acceptance, and lack of a policy framework impede the widespread implementation of alternative fuel technologies in transport vehicles. Planning and management, as well as the regular monitoring and evaluation of air quality, vehicle emissions, and health impacts, are essential if human health and productivity in these countries are to be protected. These actions need to be supported by technical measures involving the vehicle–fuel complex to reduce automotive emissions. In addition, transport demand management and market incentives, along with urban transport and road infrastructure improvements, are also required.
Despite their relatively small population, heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) are (in 2005) disproportionate contributors to the emissions inventory for oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) due to their high individual vehicle emissions rates, lack of engine aftertreatment, and high vehicle miles traveled. Beginning in the early 1990s, heavy-duty engine manufacturers began equipping their engines with electronic sensors and controls and on-board electronic computer modules (ECMs) to manage these systems. These ECMs can collect and store both periodic and lifetime engine operation data for a variety of engine and vehicle parameters including engine speed and load, time at idle, average vehicle speed, etc.
The on-road transportation (ORT) and power generation (PG) sectors are major contributors to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and a host of short-lived radiatively-active air pollutants, including tropospheric ozone and fine aerosol particles, that exert complex influences on global climate. Effective mitigation of global climate change necessitates action in these sectors for which technology change options exist or are being developed. Most assessments of possible energy change options to date have neglected non-CO2 air pollutant impacts on radiative forcing (RF). In a multi-pollutant approach, we apply a global atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify the total RF from the global and United States (U.S.) ORT and PG sectors. We assess the RF for 2 time horizons: 20- and 100-year that are relevant for understanding near-term and longer-term impacts of climate change, respectively. ORT is a key target sector to mitigate global climate change because the net non-CO2 RF is positive and acts to enhance considerably the CO2 warming impacts. We perform further sensitivity studies to assess the RF impacts of a potential major technology shift that would reduce ORT emissions by 50% with the replacement energy supplied either by a clean zero-emissions source (S1) or by the PG sector, which results in an estimated 20% penalty increase in emissions from this sector (S2). We examine cases where the technology shift is applied globally and in the U.S. only. The resultant RF relative to the present day control is negative (cooling) in all cases for both S1 and S2 scenarios, global and U.S. emissions, and 20- and 100-year time horizons. The net non-CO2 RF is always important relative to the CO2 RF and outweighs the CO2 RF response in the S2 scenario for both time horizons. Assessment of the full impacts of technology and policy strategies designed to mitigate global climate change must consider the climate effects of ozone and fine aerosol particles.
Measurements of chemical species and meteorological parameters were made at a site located 440 m above the mean basin level of Mexico City, over a two-week period in November during Project Azteca. Data from three of the stations of Mexico City's air quality monitoring network (Red Automática de Monitoreo Ambiental, RAMA) were also used to estimate the dilution in concentration experienced by pollutants as they are transported upslope during the course of the day. Both carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide show a dilution of up to 50%, while ozone is usually more concentrated at the elevated site. These comparisons clearly highlight the intrinsic differences between primary and secondary gases, which are supported also by time–space, cross correlation analysis. The thermal mesoscale wind circulation dominates concentrations of pollutants at the research site: upslope during the day and downslope during the night. The data present clear evidence that downslope flows during the night contribute to ozone concentration at basin sites.
Since 1950 the world population has more than doubled, and the global number of cars has increased by a factor of 10. In the same period the fraction of people living in urban areas has increased by a factor of 4. In year 2000 this will amount to nearly half of the world population. About 20 urban regions will each have populations above 10 million people.Seen over longer periods, pollution in major cities tends to increase during the built up phase, they pass through a maximum and are then again reduced, as abatement strategies are developed. In the industrialised western world urban air pollution is in some respects in the last stage with effectively reduced levels of sulphur dioxide and soot. In recent decades however, the increasing traffic has switched the attention to nitrogen oxides, organic compounds and small particles. In some cities photochemical air pollution is an important urban problem, but in the northern part of Europe it is a large-scale phenomenon, with ozone levels in urban streets being normally lower than in rural areas. Cities in Eastern Europe have been (and in many cases still are) heavily polluted. After the recent political upheaval, followed by a temporary recession and a subsequent introduction of new technologies, the situation appears to improve. However, the rising number of private cars is an emerging problem. In most developing countries the rapid urbanisation has so far resulted in uncontrolled growth and deteriorating environment. Air pollution levels are here still rising on many fronts.Apart from being sources of local air pollution, urban activities are significant contributors to transboundary pollution and to the rising global concentrations of greenhouse gasses. Attempts to solve urban problems by introducing cleaner, more energy-efficient technologies will generally have a beneficial impact on these large-scale problems. Attempts based on city planning with a spreading of the activities, on the other hand, may generate more traffic and may thus have the opposite effect.
A number of policy measures have been activated in India in order to control the levels of air pollutants such as particulate matter, sulphur dioxide (SO(2)) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)). Delhi, which is one of the most polluted cities in the world, is also going through the implementation phase of the control policies. Ambient air quality data monitored during 2000 to 2003, at 10 sites in Delhi, were analyzed to assess the impact of implementation of these measures, specifically fuel change in vehicles. This paper presents the impact of policy measures on ambient air quality levels and also the source apportionment. CO and NO(2) concentration levels in ambient air are found to be associated with the mobile sources. The temporal variation of air quality data shows the significant effect of shift to CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) in vehicles.
Impact of urban air pollution has variety of focuses such as urban ecology, human health, economy, etc. But human health is always given priority. Air pollution is threat to the lives of people living in big cities of Pakistan. In Lahore only there die 1,250 people annually because of air pollution. A strong correlation exists between urban air pollution and human health in Lahore. Growth of COPD is highest among other air pollution borne diseases. Existing mass transit system (one of driving forces behind motor vehicular emission) in Lahore due to frequent stoppages, entering and exit in flow of traffic causes excess discharge of motor vehicular carbon monoxide (CO) which is a hazardous to human health. Quantification and enumeration of this discharge is essential for environmental management. The paper is an attempt to highlight human health effects of urban air pollution through correlation and regression analysis. Further it is focused upon quantifying excess motor vehicular carbon monoxide through application of simplified mobile emission model. In light of results emission control measures are recommended.