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Peru: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru
... In this context, a positive p * t shock will result in greater revenues from exports and enhanced mining returns, in turn encouraging other investors to develop mining projects in Peru. Higher incomes result in improved income tax revenues (mainly mining canon revenues), which creates more fiscal space to finance public investment; see IMF (2015) and Jiménez and Rodríguez (2020). ...
This article quantifies and analyzes the evolving impact of external shocks on Peru’s macroeconomic fluctuations in 1994Q1–2019Q4. For this purpose, we use a group of models with regime-switching time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (RS-VAR-SV), as proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (J Appl Econ 33(4):509–532, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2617). The data suggest a model with contemporaneous coefficients and constant lags and intercepts, but with regime-switching variances; and point to the existence of two regimes. The IRFs, FEVDs, and HDs show that: (i) China growth shocks have a higher impact on Peru’s output growth (around 0.8%); (ii) financial shocks contract domestic output growth by 0.3% and domestic monetary policy is synchronized with Fed rate movements; (iii) external shocks explain 35% and 70% of output fluctuations under regimes 1 and 2, respectively; and (iv) China growth shocks contributed 1.0 p.p. to the 1.1-p.p. increase (around 89%) in Peru’s output growth between regimes 1 and 2. Additionally, we validate these results by performing seven robustness exercises consisting in changing priors, reordering variables, changing variables, and using four different specifications for the baseline model.
This study examines how Sri Lanka, a lower-middle income country, managed its COVID-19 response and maintained health services. It draws on an extensive document review, key informant interviews and a national survey of public experience and opinion to assess what Sri Lanka did, its effectiveness and why.
Owing to a strong health system and luck, Sri Lanka stopped the first wave of COVID-19 infections, and it adopted a ‘Zero-COVID’ approach with the explicit goal of stopping outbreaks. This was initially effective. Outbreaks reduced healthcare use, but with minimal impact on health outcomes. But from end-2020, Sri Lanka switched its approach to tolerating transmission and mitigation. It took proactive actions to maintain healthcare access, and it pursued a COVID-19 vaccination effort that was successful in covering its adult population rapidly and with minimal disparities. Despite this, widespread transmission during 2021–2022 disrupted health services through the pressure on health facilities of patients with COVID-19 and infection of healthcare workers, and because COVID-19 anxiety discouraged patients from seeking healthcare. This led to substantial mortality and more than 30 000 excess deaths by 2022.
We find that Sri Lanka abandoned its initially successful approach, because it failed to understand that its chosen strategy required symptomatic PCR testing in primary care. Failure to invest in testing was compounded by groupthink and a medical culture averse to testing.
Sri Lanka’s experience confirms that strong public health capacities, robust healthcare systems and intersectoral action are critical for pandemic response. It shows that civilian–military collaboration can be beneficial but contested, and that lack of fiscal space will undermine any response. It also demonstrates that pandemic preparedness cannot guarantee a successful pandemic response. Policy and research must pay more attention to improving decision-making processes when faced with pandemics involving novel pathogens, rapid spread, and substantial scientific uncertainty.
Este artículo cuantifica y analiza la evolución del impacto de los choques externos en las fluctuaciones macroeconómicas del Perú en 1994Q1-2019Q4. Para este propósito, usamos un grupo de modelos de vectores autoregresivos con parámetros con cambio de regimen y volatilidad estocástica (RS-VAR-SV), según lo propuesto por Chan y Eisenstat (2018). Los datos sugieren la preferencia por un modelo con coeficientes contemporáneos y rezagos e intercepciones constantes, pero con varianzas dependientes del regimen; y se observa la existencia de dos regímenes. Las IRFs, FEVDs y HDs muestran que: (i) los choques de crecimiento de China tienen un mayor impacto en el crecimiento de la producción de Perú (alrededor del 0.8%); (ii) los choques financierios contraen el crecimiento de la producción interna en un 0.3% y la política monetaria doméstica se sincroniza con movimientos de la tasa de la Reserva Federal; (iii) los choques externos explican el 35% y el 70% de las fluctuaciones del producto en los regímenes 1 y 2, respectivamente; y (iv) los choques de crecimiento de China contribuyen con 1.0 p.p. de 1.1-p.p. (alrededor del 89%) del crecimiento de la producción de Perú entre los regímenes 1 y 2. Los resultados son validados utilizando siete ejercicios de robustez que consisten en cambiar las priors, reordenar las variables, cambiar las variables y usar cuatro especificaciones diferentes para el modelo de base.
El propósito de este trabajo es aproximarse a las reformas presupuestarias orientadas al desempeño en las Comunidades Autónomas. Tras una breve caracterización del presupuesto orientado al desempeño, se examinan los esfuerzos que en la primera década del presente siglo se hicieron para implantarlo en las CCAA. Entre las experiencias de Cataluña y Andalucía, que aparecen como las más destacadas, se establece una comparación que contempla los principales elementos de las respectivas reformas. A continuación se ofrecen algunos apuntes sobre la orientación al desempeño en las actuales normativas y prácticas presupuestarias de las Comunidades Autónomas, para finalizar considerando la utilidad que pudieran tener dos conocidos indicadores de reasignación y calidad del gasto público de cara a indagar el impacto de las reformas presupuestarias realizadas.
The 2016 Budget envisions defi cit reduction at the central government level in line with the 2015-2018 Stability Programme, but budget implementation for H12015 anticipates the overall general government defi cit will overshoot the target. In any event, existing fi scal pressures at the regional level and on the social security system highlight the need for exploring new funding mechanisms. The 2016 General State Budget (PGE2016) seeks to balance fi scal consolidation with typical pre-election budgetary measures. However, modifi cations to the budget are possible if the general elections bring a change in government. A slight drop in public expenditure, in conjunction with a rise in revenues, would enable the central government defi cit to be brought down in line with the foreseen objectives. Nonetheless, budget implementation in the fi rst half of 2015 seems to anticipate a combined general government defi cit that overshoots the target, Once again, the autonomous regions emerge as the most disruptive factor, although the most recent deviations in the case of the social security system and the medium-to-long term demographic trends make it necessary to consider new funding mechanisms.
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