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The Wilson Nessie photo: a size determination based on physical principles
Abstract
We present a calculation of the dimensions of Nessie as seen in the 1934 Wilson photograph, based on a comparison with the length of adjacent wind waves. The wavelength is estimated from modern results on wind waves and contemporaneous weather information. Quantitative comparison of Nessie and the wavelength scale is effected in a digitized version of the original photograph. Our estimate of the height of the neck above the water level is 1.2 m (4 ft), and other possible subsurface dimensions may be estimated proportionally. The object thought to be Nessie in the Wilson photograph is therefore of a dimension which warrants all the interest it has received.
... is not particularly monstrous. Using wave mechanics, LeBlond and Collins (1987) estimate the size of the 'mon-47 ster' depicted in the infamous "Surgeon's Photograph" at Loch Ness at 0.6-2.4 meters. ...
Previous studies have estimated the size, mass, and population of hypothetical unknown animals in a large, oligotrophic freshwater loch in Scotland based on biomass and other observational considerations. The ‘eel hypothesis’ proposes that the anthrozoological phenomenon at Loch Ness can be explained in part by observations of large specimens of European eel (Anguilla anguilla), as these animals are most compatible with morphological, behavioural, and environmental considerations. The present study expands upon the ‘eel hypothesis’ and related literature by estimating the probability of observing eels at least as large as
have been proposed, using catch data from Loch Ness and other freshwater bodies in Europe. Skew normal and generalized extreme value distributions were fitted to eel body length distributions in order to estimate cumulative distribution functions from which probabilities were obtained. The chances of finding a large eel
in Loch Ness are around 1 in 50, 000 for a 1-meter specimen, which is reasonable given the loch’s fish stock and suggests some sightings of smaller ‘unknown’ animals may be accounted for by large eels. However, the probability of finding a specimen upwards of 6 meters is essentially zero, therefore eels probably do not account for ‘sightings’ of larger animals. The existence of exceedingly large eels in the loch is not likely based on purely
statistical considerations.
While describing my own field and laboratory research on oceanic, and fresh-water, whitecaps, I have tried to provide in this chapter a global over-view touching on the work that many of the other researchers on this topic conducted in the last third of the twentieth century and in the early years of the current century. In approaching this task, I have chosen to describe my personal introduction to air-sea interaction research for those who will be interested in how one embarked on such a career in the early 1960 s.
Using an aggregate of 17 whitecap data sets collected over the past 50 years, it has been possible to confirm that the exponent, n, in the traditional simple power-law expression used to express the dependence of whitecap coverage, WB, on 10 m-elevation wind speed, U10, increases significantly as the sea surface temperature (SST) increases. Via several statistical approaches, it has been demonstrated that the stability of the lower marine atmosphere, represented by SST- TA, has a significant influence on the WB(U10) power-law. Previous analyses using only the 12 whitecap data sets that included the geographical co-ordinates where each observation was made, did not confirm a statistically significant dependence of n on latitude. While this study benefited from the size of the whitecap data set available, future studies can achieve even more significant conclusions with more extensive whitecap data sets, that, in addition to WB and U10 values, include the geographical coordinates, and TA and SST values, associated with each whitecap observation.
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