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Media Coverage of PCB Contamination of Farmed Salmon: The Response of U.S. Import Demand

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Abstract

This article evaluates the effects of extensive media coverage of a study published in 2004 regarding the presence of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other organic contaminates in farmed salmon on U.S. import demand for fresh farmed salmon. The study indicated that levels of PCBs differed according to source, with highest PCB levels found in salmon from Northern Europe and lowest in those from Chile. Using a newspaper article index as a proxy for information, a two-stage demand model is estimated. In the first stage, total U.S. import demand for fresh farmed salmon is estimated to determine the overall effect of the information, while the second stage determines if there were any significant changes in market shares of source countries. Results indicate that imports declined by approximately one-third of what would have been in the absence of the PCB media stories during 2004–2006, and that some changes in exporters’ market shares occurred. Health implications for U.S. seafood consumers are discussed.

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... The increased preference for wild seafood relative to farmed seafood is at least partly created by substantial negative publicity focusing on negative environmental impacts of aquaculture (Asche et al., 2015a). For instance, Sha et al. (2015) show how media coverage focusing on PCB in salmon reduced U.S. demand and imports for farmed salmon, and Xie (2015) discuss advertising effects more generally. Xie and Zhang (2014) discuss development in import shares due to demand shifts and trade barriers. ...
... Liu et al. (2016) investigate the impact of the demand for salmon in Norway in the aggregate, as well as for eight different media categories, ranging from positive coverage such as recipes and employment to negative categories such as disease and environmental impact. In contrast to Sha et al. (2015), the effect turns out to be small, and the only statistically significant category is a positive effect from food recipes. ...
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... 9 However, unlike wild salmon, farmed salmon has suffered from negative publicity related to cancer-causing organic contaminants such as PCBs (e.g., Hites et al. 2004aHites et al. , 2004b. While the media have often overemphasized the relative increase in cancer risk from PCBs compared to the reduced risk of cardiac arrest from omega-3s (Santerre 2004;Willett 2005;Mozaffarian and Rimm 2006), this publicity has nonetheless decreased farmed salmon consumption in the United States (Sha et al. 2015). Thus, farmed and wild salmon represent similar products with different perceived risk/benefit profiles. ...
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Verdens voksende befolkning etterspør stadig mer ernæringsrik mat. Bare ved å bruke havet blir vi i stand til å produsere den økte mengde proteinene verden trenger. I dag kommer kun 3% av maten fra havet, mens produksjonspotensialet er det mangedobbelte. Fiskeriene er ikke i stand til å dekke et slikt enormt gap. Løsningen er akvakultur. Men også kystbasert havbruk har sine begrensninger. Løsningen er industrielt havbruk til havs
... Hites et al. [27] concluded that consumption of farmed Atlantic salmon may pose significant health risks from cancer and recommended that consumers limit their monthly consumption of farmed salmon to no more than 8 ounces. The media coverage of the study led to a substantial reduction of US imports of farmed salmon [28]. Comparing health benefits to risks of farmed salmon consumption suggests that the Hites et al. [27] recommendations might have harmed consumer health. ...
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... Some recent examples of import demand studies for seafood areMuhammad and Jones (2011),,Xie and Zhang (2014),Sha et al. (2015),Dey et al. (2017), andBraekkan et al. (2018). ...
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... However, similar to equation (5), individuals are assumed to return to their normal state during periods of nonoccurrence. To account for past events on present choices, we considered a cumulative media variable: MV t ¼ P tÀ1 k¼0 NM tÀk (Verbeke and Ward 2001;Sha et al. 2015). In this instance, however, individuals never return to a normal state. ...
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... allowed new light to be shed on this competition (Bronnmann, 2016;Chidmi, Hansson, & Nguyen, 2012;Dey, Rabbani, Singh, & Engle, 2014;Hoshino, Gardner, Jennings, & Haartman, 2015;Liu, Lien, & Asche, 2016;Roheim, Sudhakaran, & Durham, 2012;Sha, Santos, Roheim, & Asche, 2015;Singh, Dey, & Surathkal, 2014;Tan, Yen, & Hasan, 2015;Thapa, Dey, & Engle, 2015;Xie, 2015). Three articles in this special issue focus on the final market. ...
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This study uses a conjoint experiment to evaluate seafood consumers’ preferences for wild versus farmed seafood in Rhode Island, while providing an option for farmed products to be certified for best aquaculture practices, focusing upon salmon and shrimp. The definition for best aquaculture practices provided to respondents in the survey is broadly based upon standards currently in use by aquaculture certification groups, highlighting sustainability of fish feed, and control of antibiotic use, water quality and stocking density. Using data from an in-person intercept survey, a conditional logit model shows that a sample of 250 seafood consumers in Rhode Island choose wild products over farmed even when farmed products are certified, and by an entity preferred by the consumer. Results warrant both further study of consumer preferences for certified aquaculture products across a broader population, and study of the effect of different explanations of ‘best aquaculture practices’ upon preferences.
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Epidemiological and clinical trial evidence suggests that ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) might have a significant role in the prevention of coronary heart disease. Dietary sources of ω-3 PUFA include fish oils rich in eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid along with plants rich in α-linolenic acid. Randomized clinical trials with fish oils (eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid) and α-linolenic acid have demonstrated reductions in risk that compare favorably with those seen in landmark secondary prevention trials with lipid-lowering drugs. Several mechanisms explaining the cardioprotective effect of ω-3 PUFAs have been suggested, including antiarrhythmic, hypolipidemic, and antithrombotic roles. Although official US guidelines for the dietary intake of ω-3 PUFAs are not available, several international guidelines have been published. Fish is an important source of ω-3 PUFAs in the US diet; however, vegetable sources, including grains and oils, offer an alternative source for those who are unable to regularly consume fish.
Article
The Armington trade model distinguishes commodities by country of origin, and import demand is determined in a separable two-step procedure. This framework has been applied to numerous international agricultural markets with the objective of modeling import demand. In addition, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models commonly employ the Armington formulation in the trade linkage equations. The purpose of this paper is to test the Armington assumptions of homotheticity and separability with data from the international cotton and wheat markets. Both parametric and nonparametric tests were performed, and the empirical results reject the Armington assumptions. This has important implications for international trade modeling and CGE modeling. -Authors
Article
Import demands for Atlantic and Pacific salmon are estimated for Japan, the European Community and North America. Cross-price elasticities indicate that wild high-valued Pacific salmon (chinook. coho and sockeye) and farmed Atlantic salmon are substitute goods in the marketplace. This finding implies that movements in the prices of both fanned and wild salmon can be caused by supply or demand changes in the market for either type of salmon. This result in turn has important implications for future markets and prices of fanned and wild salmon in Canada and the United States La demande à l'importation pour le saunion de l'Atlantique et du Pacifique esl eslimée pour le Japon, la CEE et l'Amerique du Nord. Les valeurs d'elaslicité croisée montrenl que le saumon “sauvage” du Pacifique hautement prisé (chinook, coho et sockeve) et le saumon d'elevage de l'Atlantique peuvent se substituer l'un à l'autre sur le manhé. Cette consultation signifie quedes mouvements dans les prix des deux types de saunion peuvent étre causés par des fluctuation de l'offre et de la demande affectant l'un ou l'autre type. Cela comporte d'imponantes répercussions pour I'avenir sur le manhé el sur les prix du saumon tant sauvage que d‘élevage au Canada et aux États-Unis
Article
This study addresses the little analyzed Japanese consumer demand for seafood. A demand system approach is used to analyze demand for a group of seafood products that make up the representative household's total expenditures on seafood for at‐home consumption. The linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (U/AIDS) is applied to monthly data from 1980 through 1989 on the demand for seafood for three representative households: the average Japanese household, northern Japanese household, and southern Japanese household. Estimation results highlight effects of seasonality on demand for various seafood products; how seasonality effects defer by region; and differences in demand elasticities for seafood products both during the marketing year and across regions. Results from the analysis of the nationally representative household are contrasted with results from regionally representative house‐holds to determine implications of viewing Japan as a single, homogeneous market.
Article
This paper examines the impact of the dairy price support program and its resultant higher prices on nutritional intake, especially calcium. This assessment is particularly important because calcium is one of the two nutrients whose average intake is below the Recommended Dietary Allowance. A demand system with emphasis on dairy products is estimated, and in conjunction with data on the nutritional content of various foods, impacts on nutritional intake are measured.
Article
In recent years, a number of concerns have been raised about the safety of seafood. At the same time, published studies have extolled the benefits of eating fish. In this article we will attempt to describe the nutritional benefits of eating fish and compare these to the risks from mercury and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Our discussion will be directed at farmed fish which are often at the center of the controversies. This article is intended to be a brief overview and not a comprehensive review.
Article
Offers a conceptual basis for measuring environmental pollution damage avoidance costs in a situation with imperfect information. Expected consumer and producer surpluses are used as measures of welfare gains from information. The empirical example used concerns the period following the closure of the James River, Virginia due to kepone pollution. The changes in exptected consumer and producer surpluses from oysters in the Baltimore Wholesale market is quantified.-K.Turner
Article
A number of papers have discussed the relationship between the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and its linear approximation (LA/AIDS). In this paper, it is shown that if the prices in the system are normalized to one, the AIDS and LA/AIDS representations are identical at the point of normalization. Also, at the point of normalization, the expressions for price and expenditure elasticities from both systems are identical.
Article
Given a relative lack of knowledge about Japanese consumer preferences for fish, Japanese fish demand is modeled using both Marshallian (ordinary) and inverse demand systems, each of which nests a number of competing specifications. Results indicate that the inverse demand systems dominate the ordinary demand systems in forecasting performance and in nonnested tests. The inverse system suggests that Japanese fish prices are less responsive to changes in consumption than found in previous studies. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.
Article
Toxic algae blooms are a worldwide phenomena, which appear to be increasing in frequency and severity. These natural events cause product contaminations that often have significant economic consequences, including supply interruptions due to closed fishing grounds, losses from human illness, and losses due to a decline in demand for the affected products. This paper evaluates the impacts of a toxic algae bloom contamination event on demand for unaffected shellfish. As an empirical example of the economic losses the shellfish industry experiences for these events, demand for mussels in Montreal is estimated using firm-level data and proxies for consumer information, during and after domoic acid contamination of Prince Edward Island mussels. Sales losses due to decreased demand are calculated. Implications of this issue for seafood safety and management policies are discussed.
Article
The Chilean salmon farming industry is currently facing unprecedented economic losses related to the infectious salmon anemia (ISA) disease. Production of Atlantic salmon is being reduced from almost 400,000 tonnes in 2005 to an estimated 100,000 tonnes in 2010. The spread of and response to the disease raises a number of important issues with respect to the actions of the companies involved as well as the regulatory body. It is particularly interesting that adequate measures have not been implemented in Chile, as the species is farmed in relatively few countries and, as such, is fairly transparent. Moreover, all other major salmon- producing countries have experienced the disease, and several of the largest companies in Chile are multinationals with first-hand experience with ISA from other countries.
Article
The CBS inverse demand system is extended to include exchange rates. Applying the extended model to trade data for farmed salmon, results suggest export prices are at least as sensitive to changes in exchange rates as to changes in trade volume. Exchange rate pass-through (absorption into export prices) is complete for the Chilean peso and the British pound, but incomplete for the Norwegian kroner and the US dollar. This suggests producers in Chile and the United Kingdom (UK) are more affected by short-term movements in relative currency values than are producers in Norway and Rest of World (ROW). Model simulations suggest currency realignments, especially the depreciation of the Chilean peso, contributed to the 2003-04 collapse in world salmon prices.
Article
Adverse publicity regarding food contamination can depress demand, causing lost producer revenue. This study addresses the magnitude of those losses through the analysis of the impact of TV and print news coverage of bacterial contamination of chicken in the United States. An inverse demand model for chicken is estimated using weekly data from 1982 through 1991. Our findings indicate adverse publicity about salmonella contamination of chicken depressed the demand for chicken, but that the effect was small, less than 1% during the period of maximum exposure. Further, consumers soon forget this news as they reverted to prior consumption patterns in a matter of weeks. [EconLit citation: D120] © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Article
The almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model has many desirable theoretical properties but usually it is estimated using a linear approximation. The quality of the approximation to the true AIDS depends on the parameters and the collinearity among the exogenous price variables. In the literature, four alternative formulas have been used to compute elasticities of a demand system that is assumed to be of the AIDS form using parameters estimated in the linear approximate AIDS. Month Carlo experiments indicate that two of those four alternatives, as typically applied, are highly inaccurate but the other two are quite accurate. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.
Article
Farm groups and their governments spend millions of dollars each year advertising agricultural products in international markets. Intuitively, country-of-origin or 'brand' advertising should be more profitable than generic advertising in that it enhances product differentiation and reduces free riding. However, unlike generic advertising, brand advertising decreases the demand for competing imports and lowers their prices when supplies are upward sloping. In addition to inviting retaliation, the decline in the prices of competing products erodes the price of the advertised product through second-round or 'market feedback' effects. In this study, we develop a generalized model for assessing the relative effectiveness of generic and brand promotion in the international market when products are differentiated by source origin and supplies are uncontrolled. Applying the model to US beef promotion in Japan, we find that when brand and generic advertising are equally efficient in the sense that they cause equivalent horizontal shifts in the group and product-specific demand curves, generic advertising is indeed more profitable for most of the relevant parameter space. Distributional analysis suggests that, with equal export supply elasticities, the gross benefits of generic advertising are distributed across exporters in proportion to the expenditure elasticities for the products in question.
Article
The effects of income growth and tariffs on salmon prices, production, and trade flows are analysed using total elasticities derived from an equilibrium displacement model of the world salmon market. Results suggest the total income elasticity in world trade for salmon is about one, which means imports worldwide will grow at about the same pace as world income. However, owing in part to policies that restrict supply response, not all exporters will share evenly in this growth, with UK producers benefiting the most and Norwegian producers the least. Within importing countries, imports are more responsive to income growth than is domestic production, which means protectionist pressures are apt to increase with affluence. US tariffs on imports from Norway and Chile are counterproductive in that they reduce world imports with little effect on the US price. Norway's feed quota reduces the efficacy of US tariffs, makes imports less responsive to income, and increases price volatility. Hence, quota elimination may yield producer benefits in excess of producer losses associated with a lower world price.
Article
This study addresses the demand for salmon in the European Union. A system of demand equations are specified with an almost ideal demand system (AIDS)to analyse the demand structure for fresh, frozen and smoked salmon, using quarterly data for the period 1984–92. The time series porperties of the data series are explored, and the data series are found to be non-stationary, but cointegrated. To avoid the invalild inference and spurious regression problems that may be created by non-stationary data series,the fully modified least squares (FMLS) estimatior is utilized.
Article
Two aspects of change in the market for salmon in France during the 1980s are the subject of econometric analysis. First, an hypothesis that a change in the distribution pattern for salmon, with a larger share of the product traded further down the distribution channel, has lead to more elastic demand is tested via demand analysis. Second, the effects of advertising in expanding the salmon market is tested.
Article
An agreement between Norway and the European Commission specifies an increase in the export tax on Norwegian salmon entering EU markets from 0.75 per cent to 3.00 per cent effective from 1 July 1997. Further, the tax is to be increased to 6 per cent if a price floor or quantity ceiling is violated over the agreement's five-year life. Since the tax's proceeds are to be used by Norway to fund generic marketing of Atlantic salmon, it is possible that the agreement is win-win, i.e., benefits United Kingdom and Norwegian producers alike. To test this, we use an equilibrium displacement model to indicate the agreement's effects on prices, trade flows, and producer welfare. Results based on data through 1999 suggest the agreement is indeed win-win, but that currency realignments and feed quota policy can easily neutralise or obscure the effects.
Article
Sudden cardiac death describes the unexpected natural death from a cardiac cause within a short time period, generally ≤ 1 h from the onset of symptoms, in a person without any prior condition that would appear fatal [1, 2]. Such a rapid death is often attributed to a cardiac arrhythmia, but with the advent of monitoring capabilities from implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), it is now well recognized that classifications based on clinical circumstances can be misleading and often impossible, because 40% of sudden deaths can be unwitnessed [3]. Only an ECG or a ventricular electrogram recorded from an implanted device at the time of death can provide definitive information about an arrhythmia. Prodromal symptoms are often nonspecific, and even those taken to indicate ischemia (chest pain), a tachyarrhythmia (palpitations), or congestive heart failure symptoms (dyspnea) can only be considered suggestive. For these reasons, total mortality, rather than classifications of cardiac and arrhythmic mortality, should be used as primary objectives for many outcome studies.
Article
Omega-3 fatty acids have been shown in epidemiological and clinical trials to reduce the incidence of CVD. Large-scale epidemiological studies suggest that individuals at risk for CHD benefit from the consumption of plant- and marine-derived omega-3 fatty acids, although the ideal intakes presently are unclear. Evidence from prospective secondary prevention studies suggests that EPA+DHA supplementation ranging from 0.5 to 1.8 g/d (either as fatty fish or supplements) significantly reduces subsequent cardiac and all-cause mortality. For α-linolenic acid, total intakes of ≈1.5 to 3 g/d seem to be beneficial. Collectively, these data are supportive of the recommendation made by the AHA Dietary Guidelines to include at least two servings of fish per week (particularly fatty fish). In addition, the data support inclusion of vegetable oils (eg, soybean, canola, walnut, flaxseed) and food sources (eg, walnuts, flaxseeds) high in α-linolenic acid in a healthy diet for the general population (Table 5). The fish recommendation must be balanced with concerns about environmental pollutants, in particular PCB and methylmercury, described in state and federal advisories. Consumption of a variety of fish is recommended to minimize any potentially adverse effects due to environmental pollutants and, at the same time, achieve desired CVD health outcomes. RCTs have demonstrated that omega-3 fatty acid supplements can reduce cardiac events (eg, death, nonfatal MI, nonfatal stroke) and decrease progression of atherosclerosis in coronary patients. However, additional studies are needed to confirm and further define the health benefits of omega-3 fatty acid supplements for both primary and secondary prevention. For example, placebo-controlled, double-blind RCTs are needed to document both the safety and efficacy of omega-3 fatty acid supplements in both high-risk patients (eg, patients with type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, and smokers) and coronary patients on drug therapy. Mechanistic studies on their apparent effects on sudden death are also needed. A dietary (ie, food-based) approach to increasing omega-3 fatty acid intake is preferable. Still, for patients with coronary artery disease, the dose of omega-3 (≈1 g/d) may be greater than what can readily be achieved through diet alone (Table 5). These individuals, in consultation with their physician, could consider supplements for CHD risk reduction. Supplements also could be a component of the medical management of hypertriglyceridemia, a setting in which even larger doses (2 to 4 g/d) are required (Table 5). The availability of high-quality omega-3 fatty acid supplements, free of contaminants, is an important prerequisite to their extensive use.
Article
Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high-MeHg fish, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of nutritional benefits. To investigate the aggregate impacts of hypothetical shifts in fish consumption, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis convened an expert panel (see acknowledgements). Effects investigated include prenatal cognitive development, coronary heart disease mortality, and stroke. Substitution of fish with high MeHg concentrations with fish containing less MeHg among women of childbearing age yields substantial developmental benefits and few negative impacts. However, if women instead decrease fish consumption, countervailing risks substantially reduce net benefits. If other adults (mistakenly and inappropriately) also reduce their fish consumption, the net public health impact is negative. Although high compliance with recommended fish consumption patterns can improve public health, unintended shifts in consumption can lead to public health losses. Risk managers should investigate and carefully consider how populations will respond to interventions, how those responses will influence nutrient intake and contaminant exposure, and how these changes will affect aggregate public health.
Article
Fish (finfish or shellfish) may have health benefits and also contain contaminants, resulting in confusion over the role of fish consumption in a healthy diet. We searched MEDLINE, governmental reports, and meta-analyses, supplemented by hand reviews of references and direct investigator contacts, to identify reports published through April 2006 evaluating (1) intake of fish or fish oil and cardiovascular risk, (2) effects of methylmercury and fish oil on early neurodevelopment, (3) risks of methylmercury for cardiovascular and neurologic outcomes in adults, and (4) health risks of dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls in fish. We concentrated on studies evaluating risk in humans, focusing on evidence, when available, from randomized trials and large prospective studies. When possible, meta-analyses were performed to characterize benefits and risks most precisely. Modest consumption of fish (eg, 1-2 servings/wk), especially species higher in the n-3 fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), reduces risk of coronary death by 36% (95% confidence interval, 20%-50%; P<.001) and total mortality by 17% (95% confidence interval, 0%-32%; P = .046) and may favorably affect other clinical outcomes. Intake of 250 mg/d of EPA and DHA appears sufficient for primary prevention. DHA appears beneficial for, and low-level methylmercury may adversely affect, early neurodevelopment. Women of childbearing age and nursing mothers should consume 2 seafood servings/wk, limiting intake of selected species. Health effects of low-level methylmercury in adults are not clearly established; methylmercury may modestly decrease the cardiovascular benefits of fish intake. A variety of seafood should be consumed; individuals with very high consumption (> or =5 servings/wk) should limit intake of species highest in mercury levels. Levels of dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls in fish are low, and potential carcinogenic and other effects are outweighed by potential benefits of fish intake and should have little impact on choices or consumption of seafood (women of childbearing age should consult regional advisories for locally caught freshwater fish). For major health outcomes among adults, based on both the strength of the evidence and the potential magnitudes of effect, the benefits of fish intake exceed the potential risks. For women of childbearing age, benefits of modest fish intake, excepting a few selected species, also outweigh risks.
Article
A rank-ordered logit model is estimated using data collected by a mail survey of consumers in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic United States. The methodology, based on conjoint analysis, determines the average relative importance and value of three product attributes for fresh salmon (seafood inspection, production method, and price), and estimates the relative attractiveness of particular products to consumers. When used in combination with demographic data and responses to questions on perceptions, the analysis suggests market segmentations and potential marketing strategies based on the heterogeneity in preferences arttong consumers.
Article
The possibility of measuring and comparing sustainability performance is generally taken for granted in management studies and practices based on the evaluation, selection and ranking of the supposedly best companies in the field. The purpose of this article is to question this basic assumption by analyzing the comparability of sustainability performance through a systematic review of 12 mining company reports using Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) guidelines. The analysis of information based on 92 GRI indicators raises serious questions concerning the hypothesis of measurability and comparability of sustainability performance, drawing attention to the main reasons that make it very difficult if not impossible to establish a credible and justifiable classification among organizations. La possibilité de mesurer et de comparer les performances de développement durable est généralement prise pour acquise tant dans les recherches en gestion que dans les pratiques de classement ou de sélection des meilleures entreprises dans ce domaine. L’objectif de cet article est d’examiner cette hypothèse de mesurabilité et de comparabilité des performances de développement durable à partir de l’étude systématique de 12 rapports d’entreprises minières utilisant le même guideline du Global Reporting Initiative (GRI). L’analyse des informations relatives aux 92 indicateurs du GRI utilisés remet en cause l’hypothèse de comparabilité des performances de développement durable en mettant en lumière les principales raisons qui rendent pratiquement impossible l’établissement d’un classement crédible et justifiable entre les entreprises.
Article
This paper investigates fresh meat consumption in Belgium during 1995–1998 through the specification of a three-equation almost ideal demand system (AIDS) incorporating a media index of TV coverage and advertising expenditures as explanatory variables. Estimated parameters and elasticity coefficients are plausible and consistent with demand theory. Own-price elasticities are relatively low, indicating a low fresh meat demand sensitivity to price changes over this period which was dominated by mass media reports about the potential health risks associated with meat consumption. The scope of the paper extends beyond the estimation of elasticity coefficients and includes the specification of a media index and simulations that provide insights into the impact of negative press relative to advertising efforts. Specifically, the impact of television publicity is shown to have been particularly negative on beef/veal expenditures in favour of pork/mixture. This finding corroborates expectations since mass media issues mainly pertained to BSE (mad cow disease) and hormone residues during the investigated period. With relatively little effort being undertaken and with its current strategy, fresh meat advertising is found to have only a minor impact compared with negative press.
Article
Ever since Richard Stone (1954) first estimated a system of demand equations derived explicitly from consumer theory, there has been a continuing search for alternative specifications and functional forms. Many models have been proposed, but perhaps the most important in current use, apart from the original linear expendi- ture system, are the Rotterdam model (see Henri Theil, 1965, 1976; Anton Barten) and the translog model (see Laurits Christensen, Dale Jorgenson, and Lawrence Lau; Jorgen- son and Lau). Both of these models have been extensively estimated and have, in addition, been used to test the homogeneity and symmetry restrictions of demand the- ory. In this paper, we propose and estimate a new model which is of comparable gener- ality to the Rotterdam and translog models but which has considerable advantages over both. Our model, which we call the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), gives an ar- bitrary first-order approximation to any de- mand system; it satisfies the axioms of choice exactly; it aggregates perfectly over consumers without invoking parallel linear Engel curves; it has a functional form which is consistent with known household-budget data; it is simple to estimate, largely avoid- ing the need for non-linear estimation; and it can be used to test the restrictions of homogeneity and symmetry through linear restrictions on fixed parameters. Although many of these desirable properties are possessed by one or other of the Rotterdam or translog models, neither possesses all of them simultaneously. In Section I of the paper, we discuss the theoretical specification of the AIDS and justify the claims in the previous paragraph. In Section II, the model is estimated on postwar British data and we use our results to test the homogeneity and symmetry re- strictions. Our results are consistent with earlier findings in that both sets of restric- tions are decisively rejected. We also find that imposition of homogeneity generates positive serial correlation in the errors of those equations which reject the restrictions most strongly; this suggests that the now standard rejection of homogeneity in de- mand analysis may be due to insufficient attention to the dynamic aspects of con- sumer behavior. Finally, in Section III, we offer a summary and conclusions. We be- lieve that the results of this paper suggest that the AIDS is to be recommended as a vehicle for testing, extending, and improving conventional demand analysis. This does not imply that the system, particularly in its simple static form, is to be regarded as a fully satisfactory explanation of consumers' behavior. Indeed, by proposing a demand system which is superior to its predecessors, we hope to be able to reveal more clearly the problems and potential solutions asso- ciated with the usual approach. I. Specification of the AIDS
Article
A theoretical model of consumer response to publicized food safety information on meat demand is developed with an empirical application to U.S. meat consumption. Evidence is found for the existence of pre-committed levels of consumption, seasonal factors, time trends, and contemporaneous own- and cross-commodity food safety concerns. The average demand response to food safety concerns is small, especially in comparison to price effects, and to previous estimates of health related issues. This small average effect masks periods of significantly larger responses corresponding with prominent food safety events, but these larger impacts are short-lived with no apparent food safety lagged effects on demand.