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Transition to Sustainable Employment: Using
Backcasting Technique for Designing Policies
Alexandra Köves
Gábor Király
György Pataki
Bálint Balázs
Thearticlepresentstheexperienceandresultsofaresearchprojectthat
used the technique of backcasting. Backcasting is a preferred method
in transition management – especially with regard to sustainability is-
sues – as it facilitates the deliberation of complex socio-economic issues
and enables participants to think freely outside the realms of present
cognitive frames and still nd adequate, future-oriented policy answers.
In the case of this particular Hungarian backcasting experiment, a sus-
tainable employment scenario was developed and policy recommenda-
tions were determined for reaching such a desired future. The article
attempts to demonstrate that applying future-oriented methodological
approaches can indeed lead to the design of feasible sustainability poli-
cies even when dealing with path-dependent systems burdened with
lock-in eects.
Key Words: backcasting; deliberation; future studies; sustainable
employment; transition management
Classication:
Introduction
Sustainability has become a widely used and popular term both in man-
agement and in policy studies. However, when it comes to devising and
Alexandra Köves is PhD student in the Department of Environmental
Economics and Technology, Corvinus University of Budapest,
Hungary.
Dr Gábor Király is Associate Professor at the Budapest Business
School, Hungary.
Dr György Pataki is Associate Professor in the Department
of Environmental Economics and Technology, Corvinus University
of Budapest, and Senior Research Fellow in the Environmental Social
Science Research Group, Hungary.
Bálint Balázs is Research Fellow in the Environmental Social Science
Research Group, Szent István University, Hungary.
Managing Global Transitions (): –
Alexandra Köves, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs
implementing feasible strategies and policies that lead to strong environ-
mental and social sustainability, diculties arise. This especially holds
true when sustainability demands alternative visions that leave the realms
ofcurrentlyreigningparadigms.Inrecentyears,debateshavestrongly
resurfaced whether it is at all possible to approach sustainability within an
economic, social and political system that places the idea of growth in the
centre of attention. Many envision – including the present authors – that
solutions to such complex issues can now only be handled by deliberating
about suitable transition paths to alternative paradigms and institutional
settings.
These alternatives must critically look at how we currently dene hu-
man needs and especially the means and methods of trying to satisfy
them. Economic success should be assessed by its contribution to the
communities’ normative denition of well-being and this will inevitably
include values other than monetary ones. The idea of a steady-state or de-
growth economy does not project the idea of a stationary state. In such
an economy, the combination and ratio of the four value-producing capi-
tals (natural, social, human, and man-made) would also be continuously
changing, only well-being would rely more on the qualitative gratication
and less on the quantitative expansion of material and energy-intensive
transformations.
However, the question remains how to conceptualise the change to-
wards such a sustainable economy and society? How the transition, or
perhaps more precisely, the transformation could be managed? Are there
theories and techniques available to guide the transition/transformation
process? In the relevant literature, one of the approaches has been termed
‘transition management.’ Transition management () attempts to deter-
mine policies that are able to facilitate such transformation under condi-
tions of uncertainty, complexity, and need for continuous learning and
adaptation. Backcasting is one of the techniques applied by . As op-
posed to extrapolation from the present to the future exercised in fore-
casting, backcasting starts with the establishment of a normative vision of
the future and designs its way back to the present. Backcasting thus sup-
poses that decisions made today do inuence our prospects and hence
provides opportunities in moving towards a desired future. Backcasting
exercises are necessarily participatory and deliberative.
The article presents the experience and results of a research project
funded by the HungarianNational Council for Sustainable Development
that used the technique of backcasting in order to explore the issue of
Managing Global Transitions
Transition to Sustainable Employment
sustainable employment. Backcasting is a preferred method in transition
management–especiallywithregardtosustainabilityissues–asitfa-
cilitates the deliberation of complex socio-economic issues and enables
participants to think freely outside the realms of present cognitive frames
and still nd adequate, future-oriented policy answers. In the case of this
particular Hungarian backcasting experiment, a sustainable employment
scenario was developed and policy recommendations were determined
for reaching a desired future of sustainable employment in .
Thepaperconsistsofthreemajorparts.Therstpartpresentstheap-
proach of transition management in tackling sustainability issues. The
second section introduces the relevant literature on sustainable employ-
ment, while the last one summarisesthe experience gained from the Hun-
garian backcasting experiment on sustainable employment policies. Fi-
nally, some conclusions will be drawn.
Transition Management
Many social and natural scientist dealing with sustainability issues agree
that in order to sustainably full the needs of society among others for
mobility,food,shelter,andclothing;itisinsucienttosolelyadjustthe
current systems (Grin et al. ). It is becoming indispensable to radi-
cally redene the current systems and their functions or establish com-
pletely new ones. Hence, the issue of handling social and technological
transformations that lead from one system to a radically dierent one
has come to the forefront of scientic and public discussions (Kemp and
Loorbach ). This experience would not be unique in the history of
humankind as such transitions had taken place before but experience
showsthatnorelevantstakeholderhadbeencapableofforecasting,let
alone inuencing such major changes (Takács-Sánta ; Tenner ).
However, transition management attempts to determine policies that are
capable of facilitating such transformations. As neither the timescale, nor
the direction of such transitions can be easily determined in advance, this
‘management’ diers slightly from its traditional meaning. Rather than
directly trying to inuence, it supports the handling of uncertainty; facil-
itates continuous learning and trial and error endeavours (Van der Meer,
Visser,andWilthagen).
Transition management is not only a theoretical background used
merely in the academic eld. From the beginning of the st century,
the Dutch government has been using transition management methods
to determine sustainable public functions (Kemp and Loorbach, ).
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Alexandra Köves, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs
Most examples are available regarding the issues of energy, transport and
mobility as they incorporate technological elements (like infrastructure
or equipment); social patterns (such as habits or institutions) and cul-
tural factors (like norms, values, rules or cognitive models). According
to the theory of transition management, all these issues would have to be
considered with equal weighing (Grin et al. ).
Backcasting
A deep and unsettling question, which is raised repeatedly in the course
of human history, is what will happen in the future. Of course this is not
(just) a philosophical question since it is closely connected to the question
of what we should do today and how we should choose from a varying
set of alternatives. Our vision of the future will determine how we act
and make decisions not only at an individual but also at a social level.
Consequently, it is essential to be reexive on the issue how these ‘visions’
of future come into being and whether we can construct a dierent type
of ‘vision’ eecting norms, decisions, and actions.
Backcasting is one of the methods in future studies which attempts
to elaborate prospects for dierent levels of social organisation such as
companies, cities and societies. Backcasting is part of a bigger category of
methods called normative scenarios (Vergragt and Quist , ). The
notion of normative scenarios stands for the idea that when one attempts
to create a vision of the future there should be certain values and basic
normative assumptions determining what a desirable future would look
like. So, instead of attempting to decipher from a large pool of data what is
the most likely future, normative scenario-building moves along a dier-
ent path identifying acceptable and desirable futures instead (Robinson
). The distinguishing feature of backcasting is that it starts with a
normativefuturevisionandattemptstocreatelinksbetweenthesede-
sirable conditions of the future and the present. Consequently, it works
backwards by strategising and planning the necessary steps to achieve the
given set of goals embedded in this future vision (Miola ).
Usually the end-point of the future vision falls between – years.
The reason for this is twofold. Firstly, a longer timeframe is needed in
order to create the necessary distance from the present and to allow for
enough space for envisioning a qualitatively dierent future (Vergragt
andQuist;VergragtandQuist).Secondly,formostpeoplethe
future they are able to imagine is constrained by their lifespan or that of
their children’s (Robinson et al. ).
Managing Global Transitions
Transition to Sustainable Employment
The question may arise why anyone would use backcasting when usu-
ally forecasting is available as an alternative and is seemingly a more exact
and less ambiguous way to predict the future. The very fact that the ex-
pression of backcasting is generated by wordplay (substituting ‘fore’ with
‘back’) implies that the original idea was to create an approach funda-
mentally dierent from forecasting. While forecasting is a method based
on the present extrapolating present conditions and trends to the future,
backcasting has a reverse approach starting from the future and mov-
ing backwards to create a bridge between future and the present (Miola
).
However, there is not only a methodological issue being at stake here
but also a dierent understanding of human agency and of the possibility
of change.
Forecasting attempts to delineate the most likely future in order to
help actors adjust their strategies, plans and decisions to this future. The
keyword is adjustment here since it is presupposed that it is what actors
could and should do at dierent levels of social organisation. Forecasting,
therefore, is rst and foremost preparing for the future. Backcasting has
a dierent starting point since it allows for actors a certain space for ma-
noeuvring as far as the future is concerned. Their role is more than just
‘passively’ adjusting to or suering from the changes ahead. They can get
into a constitutive relationship with the present circumstances thereby
becoming active participants in forming future outcomes.
It should also be mentioned that forecasting works well and is really
useful in simple environments where it is enough just to use a few vari-
ables and assume that the rest of the system remains constant. However,
for complex systems forecasting is rarely enough. As Robinson () ar-
gues,asourabilitytopredictthefutureislimited,itisabettersolution
to develop alternative scenarios with dierent outcomes rather than to
predict its changes in a very quantitative and exact way. Moreover, many
problems our societies face are often complex and call for a multi-levelled
and multi-disciplinary (even trans-disciplinary) approach to tackle them
(Robinson).Suchanissueissustainability,asthenextpartofthis
paper on sustainable employment will show. However, it is easy to mis-
comprehend the function of backcasting when discussed together with
the approach of forecasting. Backcasting is not a method to predict the
‘true’ or ‘real’ version of the future but to form it, or in other words, to
create a constant dialogue between the desired conditions of the future
and the present.
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Alexandra Köves, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs
Sustainable Employment
WhentheopportunityarosetoapplybackcastingintheHungariansus-
tainable policy context, a suciently complex policy eld with funda-
mental importance needed to be identied that incorporates the tech-
nological elements, social patterns and cultural factors and requires the
deliberation of people with many dierent viewpoints. The choice fell on
the topic of sustainable employment that is high on the public agenda in
Hungary.
Sustainable employment as a phrase is relatively rarely discussed in the
literature on alternative economics. Even environmental social scientists
are divided on the issue whether an economic transformation into a more
sustainable world would involve less or more work. Some academics be-
lieve that we maintain our current levels of consumption just to provide
employment, hence only less work can lead us to a more environmen-
tallyconsciouswayofliving(Schor),whilesomebelievethatthe
years of environmentally damaging economic activity would require
signicant human labour to clean up (Cato ).
The connection of sustainability and employment in the current lit-
erature is made along two paradigms. The rst reects the technologi-
cally optimistic scenario of ecological modernisation where new inno-
vations will enable the current economy to reduce its adverse eects on
theenvironmentwhile,atthesametime,producingnew‘greenjobs’
in the growing ‘green economy.’ The second one is the ‘radical change
paradigm’ that abandons the ideals of an economic and social system
based on growth, consumer society and full employment and advocates
fundamental changes in the way we dene work and welfare (in this case
in its sense of well-being) in order to achieve environmental and social
sustainability.
The greening of the economy that nowadays often appears in global, Eu-
ropean and national strategies imply corresponding solutions to both the
environmental and the employment crises. Ecological modernisation en-
courages investments into environmentally friendly technologies and de-
velopments that lead to greener production or low-emission consump-
tion.Thistechnologicalxdoesnotonlyreduceenvironmentaldam-
age per unit of production but also boosts economic growth and at least
in its investment phase demands signicant human labour. This con-
cept is especially appealing to the current major economic players as it
opens new markets as well as reduces operating costs (e. g. energy costs)
Managing Global Transitions
Transition to Sustainable Employment
and can be easily reconciled with the current mindset. In the process of
such greening of the economy, less environmental harm and more labour
would also be supported through ecological tax reforms that produce a
‘double-dividend’ by making the use of scarce resources more expensive
and labour cheaper (Kiss ).
However, such ecological modernisation only enhances eco-eciency
and leads to relative decoupling (decreased environmental strain per
units of consumption) but does not involve reducing the overall scales
of consumption. Absolute decoupling would only occur if the overall
throughput of the economy would be decreased or, at least, maintained
over time (Jackson ). Hence, strong environmental sustainability
cannot be achieved by ecological modernisation alone and these solu-
tions incorporate the risk of believing that we can go on business-as-usual
without major changes in our ways of thinking and acting. Moreover,
ecological modernisation attempts to address social sustainability only
by boosting employment but not at all addressing the questions of social
justice.
In terms of employment, the green economy is controversial. Green in-
vestments can lead to new ‘green jobs’ (Getzner ; McEvoy, Gibbs, and
Longhurst ). However, the increase in employment occurs mainly in
the investment phase and as the main driving motivation behind techno-
logical innovation is cost cutting, it is possible that their introduction will
further reduce human labour demand in the long run. Another problem
that may arise is that the capital intensity of these investments will be sat-
isedthroughcostreductionsthatarelikelytooccurbysavingonlabour
costs.
Consequently, the concept of the green economy is only helpful as long
as it is treated as a transitory phase with all its limitations acknowledged
while the quest for solutions beyond current paradigms continues. Eco-
logical modernisation is in line with mainstream economic concepts and
hence subjugated to the necessity for ever-lasting economic growth fail-
ing to deal with the limits of the biosphere’s supporting capacities, hence
not achieving strong environmental sustainability. In terms of social sus-
tainability, this paradigm fails to address the problems of unequal distri-
bution and the widening of the social gap.
Representatives of the radical change paradigm go beyond the bound-
aries of neoclassical economics and refuse to accept its denition of wel-
fare solely in terms of levels of consumption; its characterisation of work
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Alexandra Köves, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs
as purely paid labour and its seemingly problematic attachment to the
ideal of full-employment. Their theories are based upon the idea that new
foundations can be built through the redenition of human needs and
work. Mainstream employment theories and policies handle work purely
in relation to income-generating activities. All unpaid eorts that peo-
pleengagein–suchascommunitywork,householdjobs,homecare,or
self-actualisation activities – are now considered beyond the economic
concept of employment. As Beck (, ) asks in his book The Brave
New World of Work, if we presume that the volume of income-generating
jobs is in decline, what other leading concepts can take the central role of
paid employment in society?
In redening work, we cannot surpass discussions on questioning the
currently reigning paradigms of human needs. As Cruz, Stahel, and Max-
Neef () remark, consumption in the current economy has become
an end in itself and has not only moved away from genuine needs but
has also transformed them. As soon as it is accepted that human needs
are nite and are of a signicantly wider range that do not focus solely
onmonetisedmaterialneeds,theeectsofworkitselfonthewell-being
can also be rediscovered. Torgler () in his empirical study of Euro-
pean countries nds that one of the main driving force behind the well-
being of a person – besides the satisfaction with family and marital back-
ground – is work satisfaction. Relating to work, motivations like partic-
ipation, understanding, creativity, self-actualisation, or aection appear
alongside subsistence and security (Max-Neef ). Hence, it is possible
to redene work in light of these needs from a purely income-generating
activity to something that adds to the well-being of the individual and
thecommunity.Fromhereonwards,besidespaidwork,householdac-
tivities or home farming can also become aspects of employment that
full subsistence and security. Community work or social deliberation
activities can be linked to participation; the acceptance of learning and
self-development as work to understanding; and activities ranging from
gardening to music playing to creativity. If we add the need for aection
to this, besides community work, child-rearing and elderly care can also
be seen as an accepted work activity. The redenition of work along these
lines can make way for the recognition of new approaches within the rad-
ical change paradigm.
The cornerstone of environmental and social sustainability through
the radical change paradigm is the unavoidable transformation of con-
sumption and work patterns. Even though current employment theories
Managing Global Transitions
Transition to Sustainable Employment
and policies avoid handling the interconnectedness of consumption and
work,thisperspectivecangivesignicantinsightsintoachievingmore
sustainable employment. In mainstream economics, consumption and
workarethetwosidesofthesamecoin:consumptionistheyield(positive
utility), while work is what we have to ‘endure’ in order to be rewarded
(negative utility). However, they continuously reinforce each other, and
we are not only working more in order to consume more but consume
more once we have worked for it (Sanne ). Røpke () explains
that with the increase in labour productivity, employers – in line with the
current economic rationale – have chosen to increase the wages of em-
ployeesandproducemoreratherthanprovidemoreleisuretime.Thishas
meant that employees have got used to increasing levels of spending that
demanded increasing time spent at the workplace. At the same time, in
the appreciation of the workforce (i. e. in promotion and wage increases)
time spent at the workplace (including ‘natural’ overtime) started to play a
major role (Røpke ). In addition, Sanne () mentions the -hour
working week that by now for society has become the only recognised
‘true employment’ as one of the most signicant drivers of consumption.
However, if needs and values that present alternatives to monetary well-
being are recognised, a cutback of consumption through the reduction
of the working week may become widely acceptable (Sanne ; Schor
).
One of the tools to accommodate such radical changes is the intro-
duction of the guaranteed basic income. One of the contemporary ad-
vocates of the basic income approach, Philippe Van Parijs believes that a
transfer payment provided to every citizen in his/her own right regard-
less of one’s employment or social status could, on the one hand, ensure
basic subsistence for each individual enabling the redenition of work
and, on the other, would mean an end to the unemployment problem
Europe faces (Van Parijs ). In mainstream economic theory, the only
solution to unemployment is a boost in economic growth, which is now
encountering numerous environmental and social limits. Consumption
taxes would cover for the funding of such transfer payments in line with
ecological taxation systems.
The redenition of work, a stop to overconsumption, and a guaran-
teed basic income together would pave the way for a whole new con-
cept of working in and for the community. Currently, working for the
communityiseitherdoneonanunpaidvolunteeringbasis,or–likein
thecaseofpublicworkschemesorthesocialeconomy–isdoneunder
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Alexandra Köves, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs
subsistence pressure. In a society where diverse forms of work are recog-
nised as employment, working for the community would become just one
type of employment among many. Within the radical change paradigms,
the dierent structures of the social economy could play signicant roles.
As Cato () argues, cooperatives are organisations where one’s self-
actualisation and enhanced work motivation can really ourish as to-
gether with responsibilities, people share their abilities and values. The
author takes this reasoning one step further, saying that if we considered
business as part of the community, the issue of social responsibility, ser-
vicelevels,thequalityofgoodsandtheprotectionoftheenvironment
would just become the norm.
Both in terms of environmental and social sustainability, the issue of lo-
cal production and consumption going hand-in-hand with the reinforce-
ment of local communities comes to the forefront. Eco-localism focuses
on the locally available capital (including environmental, social, physical,
nancial and human) and encourages its use towards self-sustenance.
This economic vision with its conservation of local resources for long-
term purposes as opposed to the current short-term prot-maximisation
tendencies is signicantly closer to the Aristotelian concept of oikono-
mia (Curtis ). Similarly to eco-localism, bioregionalism envisions the
operations of the economy on a ‘local production – local consumption’
basis but while eco-localism does not dene what ‘local’ is, bioregion-
alism states that political and economic boundaries should respect the
boundaries of ecosystems. Bioregional visions accept only two levels of
governance: bioregional and global. On the bioregional level, decisions
are taken by participative, deliberative means. The trading of knowl-
edge, ideas, culture, certain services and locally unavailable raw materi-
als would happen also on a global basis and the import of goods would
also be possible but local goods would have a signicant comparative ad-
vantage(Grey,).Eventhoughthereisnoextensiveresearchonthe
employment eects of eco-localism or bioregionalism, some assumptions
canbemade.Localproductionandconsumptionwouldfacilitatetheutil-
isation of local labour while reducing unemployment, and the negative
environmental and social eects of mobility and migration. There is some
experience to such local employment initiatives all over the world in the
form of (Local Exchange and Trading Systems).
The radical change literature on sustainable employment – sceptical
to the ideals of full employment and boundless globalisation of markets
– focuses on reinventing the conceptual framework of employment. By
Managing Global Transitions
Transition to Sustainable Employment
broadening the range of human needs and the recognised forms of labour,
work is redened in a global network of local economies. Employment no
longer means solely paid work but activities that serve the purposes of the
well-being of the community and the self-fullment of the individual are
also acknowledged.
The Results of the Hungarian Backcasting Experiment
The Hungarian backcasting experiment provided us with some insights
on how the normative vision created by the participants overlap with the
theories raised in the academic literature. When selecting the participants
to the workshop, the organisers opted for an approach that targeted the
involvement of ‘experts’ in the eld of employment. This limited the ran-
domness of the selection process as they had to be selected from a pool
of experts known to the researchers on the basis of their background in
employment, and their geographical location. The homogeneity of the
group ensured that the exercise remained intense, problem focussed and
it clearly simplied the process as it required less time and costs from the
participants. The main criteria for recruitment were suitability and will-
ingnesstotakepartinanexerciseworkingonthescience-policyinterface
on a voluntary basis. The participants came from varied backgrounds
and from dierent sectors (four each from academic, business, civil, and
public administration), equally from the capital and the countryside rep-
resenting both the East and the West of Hungary facing dierent employ-
mentproblems.Itwasensuredthattherewouldbearepresentativeofthe
Roma community as well as someone from an assisting people liv-
ing with disabilities in nding employment. We realise that the results of
the backcasting experiment reect only the views of those people present
at the workshop, but they nonetheless give valuable insights to how sus-
tainable employment can be conceived.
The following synopsis of the vision is the result of qualitative data
analysis. The analysis used was a combination of meaning-condensation;
categorisation and meaning-interpretation (Kvale ). The discussions
during the workshop were recorded and notes were taken by two re-
searchers. The participants themselves organised their conclusions on
ipcharts and sheets and the results were photographed. After the work-
shop, the notes were crosschecked with the recordings and together with
the photographed written results organised into a database where they
were broken up into pieces that reected dierent notions. These were
then sorted into dierent categories (such as denition of work; com-
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Alexandra Köves, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs
munity; role of the state, etc.) and labelled with topics (for example
working time; work ethics; the relationship of individuals to the com-
munity;trust;etc.).Afterlabelling,thenoteswereregroupedintodier-
ent topics and a synopsis was written on the basis of the content of these
groups. Hence, this synopsis reects the notions discussed by the partic-
ipants but in the words of the researchers.
The participants found the redenition of work crucial in their vision
for sustainable employment. According to their vision, work in Hungary
in is not merely a tool for basic subsistence but also a ‘source of
well-being.’ Work does not consist only of a paid job and does not only
exist in institutionalised forms. As work is no longer just a struggle for
survival,peoplehaveaninternalmotivationtodowhattheydoskilfully.
They can be proud of their jobs independent of their status or scope of ac-
tivities. Work is meaningful and useful in many dierent segments of life.
People’s needs go beyond the physical focus and spiritual needs prompt
the existence of new types of work activities. The satisfaction of needs
is ‘healthy,’ putting a stop to patterns of overconsumption. Work moti-
vation changes accordingly: prime motivation is no longer subsistence
but self-actualisation, self-development and the feeling of social useful-
ness. As one of the participants phrased, ‘work is happy self-actualisation
in a socially benecial manner.’ Such redenition of work stipulates the
broadening of the dierent employment forms. In Hungary of the s,
employment is not purely part of the market economy as people also
do work that are ‘not necessarily monetised.’ One can engage exibly in
many dierent work activities, in many dierent legal forms and hence
retains more control over one’s life. The non-monetised forms of em-
ployment such as barter or become legally acknowledged. Learning
is a recognised form of employment. Work is performed predominantly
locally, or even from home but so-called ‘oce café’ solutions also exist
where people can work outside their homes. Technology supports this
type of evolution as it transforms most arduous and monotonous work
and ‘there is nobody digging trenches in .’ However, if someone per-
forms such demanding jobs, society fully appreciates them.
Participants envisage the Hungarian society in where the role of
communitiesisofrisingimportanceandbuildsonvaluesofcoopera-
Managing Global Transitions
Transition to Sustainable Employment
tion, trust, and solidarity. Community ties of individuals are strong and
communal events are frequent. The network of trust is operational and
trust itself is treated as a prime social asset. Community plays two dier-
ent roles in employment. On the one hand, community provides a frame-
work and motivation to work, on the other hand, work serves community
purposes.As‘peoplecannothavetheirworkappreciatedinlargerspaces
and large societies,’ society operates as a network of many smaller com-
munities. Hence, both working in the community and working for the
community becomes important.
- -
The participants envision the economic actors of not merely for-
prot or non-prot organisations. For-prot actors are sensitised (or co-
erced) being environmentally and socially responsible organisations that
build these aspects into their everyday decision-making and represent
unambiguous community values. Management culture embraces em-
powerment, where employees have certain degrees of self-determination.
Bonuses include solutions that facilitate the new, diverse types of em-
ployment such as sabbaticals or work-time allowances for volunteering
activities. Consultations with workers’ associations are based on trust
and dialogue, where both parties are present as partners. In case of in-
evitable downsizing, outplacement services are provided on a wide ba-
sis to employees. Dierent co-ownership schemes for workers are com-
mon, cooperatives are rediscovered and many work in the predominantly
non-prot social economy. However, as in the for-prot sector social re-
sponsibility becomes the norm, at the same time corporate governance
becomes widespread among non-prot organisations. Hence, non-prot
approaches are built into the operations of for-prot companies, while
non-prot organisations internalise the essentials of economic opera-
tions.
Participants revealed outstanding technological optimism. ‘In tech-
nologies will be widely accessible that we have no knowledge of today.’
Even though in less work is available due to technological advances,
this does not imply higher unemployment but rather more opportuni-
ties for redening work. Technology supports exible working arrange-
ments, improvements in quality of living, substitution of arduous and
monotonous jobs, equal access to work and public services and partici-
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Alexandra Köves, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs
pative decision-making. The wide-ranging research and development ac-
tivities do not only cover technological advancement but also social inno-
vations. While not questioning technological advances at all, much em-
phasis is also laid on the preservation of traditional cultural values, and
the safeguarding of those who work with traditional technologies. (How-
ever, this preservation should not at all mean separated reserves.) This
way, besides modern technology, traditional knowledge has a legitimised
role in society.
Participants envisage a knowledge-based Hungarian society in .
Hence, education and training in many dierent forms play an outstand-
ing role in all ages. In case of children, the frontal, class-based school
system is replaced by education that respects individual talents, is tailor-
made, and involves parental guidance as well. Young people have the
chance to try themselves in dierent jobs and get experience under pro-
tected circumstances. Adults train themselves regularly but not necessar-
ily in formal institutions. Both formal and informal education and self-
development is acknowledged and regarded as standard part of working
life. Due to this development, a number of career changes in a person’s
life are considered the norm.
When discussing environmental aspects in sustainable employment, the
participants of the backcasting workshop were present more like lay peo-
pleastheyhadmoreexpertiseonemploymentthanecologicalissues.
Nonetheless their commitment towards environmental sustainability was
apparent throughout the workshop. According to their vision, in in-
dividualsaswellaseconomicactorsareenvironmentallyconsciousboth
due to their inner values as well as due to the regulatory environment.
Environmentally friendly workplaces involve energy eciency as well as
aspects of occupational health, including ergonomic perspectives and the
increased consciousness of the detrimental eects of work overload. The
ecological aspects are taken seriously especially in the agricultural sec-
tor,thatbuildsalotmoreonhumanlabourthanchemicals.Hence,more
people are employed in agriculture. (The recurring theme of agriculture
during the backcasting workshop was likely to be due to the participants’
desire for access to safe and healthy food as lot of discussions revolved
around the need for adequate food production and labelling.) In ,
Managing Global Transitions
Transition to Sustainable Employment
the redenition of work implies a rise in the appreciation of human skills
and labour and this leads to ‘mending things rather than scrapping’ as ‘we
do not ditch other people’s work.’ The new approaches to working lives
also enable people to take more responsibility for and better care of their
own environment.
Theissueofglobalvs.localcontinuouslyresurfacedinthediscussions.
Anti-global sentiments did not occur and the concept of the global econ-
omy and global society were not questioned once. However, according
to their vision, in globalisation is more of a global network of lo-
cal economies and societies, where local production and consumption,
and hence local employment play a signicant role. This does not at all
imply that there is any limitation on goods and services imported from
the global arena, only that local products and services enjoy certain ad-
vantages. Employees are also free to choose whether they work locally or
globally(asthisaddstothedesireddiversityofworkingarrangements)
but the pressure on mobility eases. Individuals may have strong ties to a
locality but this rather indicates solidarity with a given community than
the lack of mobility. (On the necessity of mobility participants were di-
vided.)
During discussions a vision of the Hungarian state in also crys-
tallised. The participants envisage that in , Hungary is a democracy
but signicantly more decentralised both in terms of decision-making
and nancial resources than today. Even though participative or deliber-
ative democracy as a term never occurred during discussions, the topic of
a state where individual, community, and state responsibilities are clearly
distinguished and decisions are taken on the levels where responsibility
lies often appeared. Moreover, the link between the citizens and the ‘cen-
tral’ state is only indirect as there are a wide range of institutions with
dierent authorities. The redistributive task of the central state still re-
mains important as it ensures through the guaranteed basic income the
basic subsistence of citizens. The role of the public employment service
changes as it no longer deals with the administration of unemployment
benets and the assistance of the unemployed (as due to basic income
this concept becomes outdated) but more with the tailor-made support-
ing and brokering services for all employees.
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Alexandra Köves, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs
It is clear from the above, that the participants’ vision for sustainable em-
ployment in Hungary in contains mixed elements of the ecologi-
cal modernisation and radical change paradigms described in the previ-
ous chapter. Their vision also abandons the ideal of full employment and
makes way for a life where people are free to work not because they are
forcedbytheirsubsistencebutbecauseworkisanactivitythatservesthe
well-being of both their community and their own. Well-being was de-
ned not only in material terms but also in terms of self-development;
self-fullment; sucient time for nurturing family and community rela-
tionships and access to a healthy environment. This approach would also
enrich the forms of employment and dispose of the idea that employment
generally means a -hour paid labour week. Even though participants
supported the idea of localised employment through the encouragement
of local production and consumption patterns, the varied nature of em-
ployment would also cover the open opportunities for globalised employ-
ment and labour mobility. The issue of globalisation appears in the vision
as an aggregate of local networks, where localism weighs more than today
but does not mean detachment or impassability.
During the workshop, backcasted policy tools that serve this normative
vision were also identied. These policy tools concentrate around ve
major objectives.
The rst group of policy tools serve the objective that work done be-
yond the economic sphere (such as community, family, self-development)
should get recognition in order to provide people with the choice to work
in many dierent employment forms doing diverse, meaningful and ac-
claimed jobs. This implies that the legal and social system should em-
brace and encourage employment forms besides paid labour (such as self-
employment, household employment, , barter, and all atypical em-
ployment forms). Local employment should be supported but barriers
to global employment should also be eased at the same time, leaving the
individuals the option to decide. In order to achieve these objectives, the
policy tools identied in the backcasting experiment focus on the abolish-
ment of administrative obstacles; introduction of new legislative frame-
works for those elements that are currently not available; communication
campaigns and nancial incentives. It is this group of measures that in-
Managing Global Transitions
Transition to Sustainable Employment
clude the suggestion on the introduction of the guaranteed basic income
that facilitates the redenition of work.
The second group of policy measures aims at supporting non-prot
organisations to become an integrated part of the economy, while at the
same time encouraging for-prot companies to take on board social val-
ues in order to ensure that people work in an environment that is based
on cooperation and trust and embraces true social dialogue. This can be
achieved through awareness-raising campaigns and nancial incentives.
These tools could lead to better cooperation and more solidarity in both
sectorsbutonlyiftrustisestablished.Socialtrustcanbebuiltupbyrst
introducing trust building elements into public administration, for ex-
ample by encouraging real participative social dialogue. In addition to
positivemeasures,theparticipantsrecommendthatlateroncertainle-
gal sanctions can also play a role especially in the case of the for-prot
companies.
Thethirdgroupofmeasuresaimesatkeepingthedetrimentaleects
of work and the environment at a minimum level. The notion of sus-
tainable employment must include that neither the work environment,
nor other elements of employment (e.g. overwork, stress) lead to any
damages of health. The proposed measures in this category include both
awareness-raising and strong legislation to ensure healthy and environ-
mentally friendly working environments, proper work-life balance, and
food safety.
The fourth group of policy measures aims at providing opportunities
for people to realise and develop their own potentials both in educa-
tion and training and on-the-job. These measures establish a knowledge-
based society that can only be achieved through an education system that
facilitates self-development at any age. This includes the introduction
of new, innovative forms of learning and new types of learning infras-
tructure. Life-long learning can be encouraged by legally acknowledging
training as employment.
The policy measures in the fth group serve to establish the role
of technology in supporting sustainable employment by encouraging
targeted technological and social innovations through nancial incen-
tives. They include a wide-range of potential applications from the in-
troduction of trust-building, participatory community decision-making;
through boosting the creative industry, until facilitating equal access to
employment, locations and services. This group also included policy in-
struments that prevent the disappearance of traditional professions.
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Alexandra Köves, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs
Conclusions
Even though throughout the Hungarian backcasting experiment, numer-
ous conclusions could be identied in how to improve the methodology
of backcasting, it demonstrated that this transition management tech-
nique is indeed capable of facilitating out-of-box thinking even regarding
highly complex issues such as sustainable employment. It has also become
clear that feasible sustainability policies can be designed even when deal-
ing with path-dependent systems burdened with lock-in eects. As for
the methodological considerations, two main lessons were drawn from
the experiences of the backcasting process.
Firstly, it became clear that much more time is needed for the orien-
tation phase in which the participants can get into a mindset where they
can devise and think about alternative realities. While for children this
‘mental shift’ between the reality and alternative realities happens auto-
matically and without eort, most adults learnt to restrict the rich associ-
ations of their thoughts to be able to focus more eectively on their tasks
at hand (Gopnik ). Hence, more time and careful planning is needed
to loosen these mental boundaries to be able to aid participants to leave
the problems of the present behind and to focus on the possible desired
future.
Secondly,ourmethodologywasbasedonathematicapproachwhere
participants discussed dierent aspects of a sustainable future of employ-
ment (namely, individual, community, environmental, and technological
aspects).Eventhoughthisapproachrevealedmanyfacetsoftheissue,
they remained relatively independent from each other in the scenario
buildingexercise.Tobeabletoharnesstherichconnectionsandcomplex
interrelationships between social, technological and environmental com-
ponents in creating the vision of a future society, we shall seek a dierent,
probably more systematic or network-based approach. This would allow
for a more encompassing view on society as a whole while at the same
time this modied approach could help to disclose how dierent parts
of a system or network mutually constitute, stabilise, and feedback onto
each other respectively.
We realise that the composition of the group poses some limitations
on generalising the results as they were well-educated people who reect
on employment issues on a daily basis. It would therefore be of a high
signicance to run this experiment with dierent groups, consisting of
people from dierent backgrounds and age groups. However, we believe
Managing Global Transitions
Transition to Sustainable Employment
that the views of the participants emerge from a wider understanding of
how employment could and should become more socially and environ-
mentally sustainable and the results can nonetheless constitute a valuable
contribution to the dialogue on sustainable employment.
The vision established during the two-day workshop bear certain re-
semblance to those ideas that are present in the alternative economic lit-
erature described in the section on the radical change paradigm. Com-
mon ground is that the current denition of work and the employment
policies that rely on the notion of full employment are outdated. This
crosstalk between the literature and the solutions identied by the par-
ticipants may be due to a number of reasons. One can be that the reasons
behind the economic, environmental, and social crises are perceived sim-
ilarly and as soon as people are given the opportunity – like in the back-
casting workshop – to distance themselves from the complexity of current
problems, break-out strategies start to bear resemblances. It is also possi-
ble that mainstream paradigms are already so challenged that alternatives
that are currently labelled alternative no longer seem unattainable. This
seems to be underpinned by the fact that the foundations of many ele-
ments in the vision had already been laid. The social economy currently
also presents an alternative to those crowded out of the labour market;
a number of non-monetised local exchange and trading networks exist;
and the legal base for a number of atypical employment forms had been
developed. One of the main obstacles of the ourishing of these solutions
is that the economic and political system still holds on to certain presup-
positions. The rejection or, at least, the questioning of these assumptions
could pave the way for a wider use of already existing patterns that en-
able a better harmonisation of ecological and employment interests and
visions.
Transition management techniques such as backcasting can support
such approaches. If such methods were to be used more widely, decision-
makers could be assisted in facing legitimate and implementable policy
options outside the realms of mainstream solutions.
Acknowledgments
This research project was nanced by the National Council for Sustainabil-
ity Development of Hungary. We gratefully acknowledge the personal sup-
port of Dr. Gábor Bartus. We also acknowledge the assistance of the mem-
bers of the Environmental Social Science Research Group in preparing
for the backcasting experiment. We wish to thank the participants of the
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Alexandra Köves, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs
backcasting workshop for devoting their time and sharing their insights
with us.
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