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Climate Change Adaptation in the Australian Alps: Impacts, Strategies, Limits and Management.
Abstract and Figures
The snow covered mountains of the Australian Alps are nationally and internationally important due to their conservation significance, ecosystem services and economic values. Predicted increases in temperature and decreasing precipitation due to climate change will result in dramatic changes in the region with snow cover already declining (approximately 30% since 1954). While the Australian Alps are of high conservation value with most subalpine and alpine areas conserved in a series of protected areas, the area is used by a number of different stakeholders. In or adjacent to, the protected areas there are currently 10 ski resorts, with winter visitation to the resorts worth AU$906 million in 2005. At lower altitude, there are population centres that depend to a large extent on jobs and incomes generated from snow based and summer tourism. Agricultural and other productive industries that occur in the lower lands surrounding the Australian Alps are dependent on water from the mountains including irrigation, while much of south eastern Australia utilizes water and hydroelectric power generated within the Australian Alps.
Using a desktop analysis of available literature and a series of semi-structured interviews with different local stakeholders, this project examined the impacts of climate change; current and potential climate change adaptation strategies; ecological, technological, physical, economic and social limits to these strategies; potential conflicts and collaborations between stakeholder groups in relation to climate change adaptation; and future research directions for the region. Understanding these climate change issues are critical for stakeholders as they adapt to less snow and warmer summers in the Australian Alps.
The results of the desktop review and the stakeholder interviews demonstrate that the region benefits from relatively long term data on climate and detailed modelling of climate change compared to many other locations in Australia. There is reasonably detailed existing long term ecological research for the region and modelling of climate change impacts on the flora and fauna. There has also been research on tourism in the region and the likely impacts of climate change on this industry. Because of the fairly direct link between increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation and natural snow cover there is less debate that climate change will change this critical resource. Consequently, stakeholders within the region are more advanced than in many other regions in terms of recognising that climate change is occurring and identifying its impacts.
The stakeholders in the region are also fairly advanced in planning and utilising a range of climate change adaptation strategies and acknowledging a wide range of biophysical, economic and social limits to those strategies. These limits mean that major impacts of climate change will still occur despite climate change adaptation strategies. For example, while snow-making is the primary climate change adaptation response by the tourism industry, it will not be economically, physically or socially acceptable in the future. Current threats to ecosystems are also likely to continue, e.g. management strategies for feral animals and plants have only slowed the spread of some species under conditions so are unlikely to be adequate with climate change.
Our results highlight the fact that social, governance and knowledge issues currently play an important but largely under-recognised role in limiting climate change adaptation in the Australian Alps; a role that is likely to increase with time. Given that these limits are fairly flexible or dynamic in nature compared to ecological limits (currently the most recognised threshold), there is great potential for them to play a very significant role (both positive and detrimental) in future climate change adaptation. A major gap identified in current stakeholder assessment of climate change is the importance of the Alps catchment nationally, particularly the importance of its water for Australia’s economy ($10 billion/annum for actual water and products from industries reliant on water supplies from the Alps catchment). This is an important social limit that was not recognised by stakeholders who were more focussed on local or regional limits.
While several conflicts have arisen and/or are likely to arise among stakeholder groups in relation to the flow-on effects of various adaptation strategies, there is also a great potential for collaboration in relation to other adaptation strategies in the region.
Recommendations
Based on the results of this study we recommend:
1) Identifying a common goal or vision for the future of the Australian Alps in relation to the state of the environment that is acceptable to all stakeholders.
2) Due to increasing recognition of the need to adapt to future climate change regardless of mitigation actions and success, greater emphasis on research that specifically addresses the information needs of stakeholders is needed. This includes a detailed investigation of the information requirements of each stakeholder group and collaborative partnerships that can be generated to both collect data and use the information in feasible, successful management strategies and actions.
3) Identifying methods to best raise awareness of the regional and national significance of the Australian Alps in both the general public and stakeholders involved with the management of the region.
4) Increase mitigation of climate change to minimise the severity of the negative physical, ecological, social and economic impacts of climate change including in the Australian Alps. Adaptations strategies for the Australian Alps will only delay and/or have a minor effect on the severity of the impacts of climate change in the region.
5) Formally identify, promote and fund collaborative stakeholder partnerships.
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... For the Australian Alps this includes monitoring changes in temperature, snow cover, ice cover, stream flow, phenology of plant and animal species and composition of plant and animal communities among others (Pickering et al. 2004;Nicholls, 2005;Scherrer and Pickering, 2005;Gallagher et al., 2009;Green and Osborne, 2012). Long term physical or biological datasets are limited in the Australian Alps compared to European and North American mountains, but within Australia, they are exceptional (Pickering et al. 2004;Hennessy et al., 2008;Pickering, 2011;Green and Osborne, 2012;Morrison and Pickering 2012b). There are few climatic stations that have monitored temperatures for more than 50 years in the Australian Alps. ...
... Despite the increased use of monitoring in the Australian Alps, more research is required Pickering, 2011, 2012a,b). When different stakeholders in the region were asked to list factors that limit their capacity to adapt to climate change, a lack of research and knowledge of existing research was considered a major issue (Morrison and Pickering, 2011). They also identified future research needs involving long term monitoring (Table 1). ...
... The aims of the survey are to assess climate change research and monitoring requirements of Parks staff and researchers in the Australian Alps. This survey follows on from work for the National Climate Change Adaption Research Facility on limits to climate change adaptation in the Australian Alps (Morrison and Pickering, 2011). It expands on the interviews of the focus groups in that study in order to: ...
Worldwide anthropogenic climate change threatens natural ecosystems including those in the Australian Alps. The Australian Alps National Parks currently conserve nearly all of mainland Australia’s snow country and are important nationally and internationally due to their conservation values, ecosystem services and economic benefits. Climate change predictions for the Australian Alps include higher temperatures, reduced snow cover, increased risk of fires and increased abundance and diversity of weeds and feral animals. In addition to these impacts, there will be changes in winter and summer tourism. Research for the National Climate Change Adaption Research Facility surveyed protected area managers, researchers, local government and resorts to identify the strategies they plan to use to adapt to climate change, and the limits to those strategies. Research, or rather not enough research on climate change and its impacts was seen as a major limit for adaptation. Griffith University was commissioned by the Australian Alps Liaison Committee to extend that study by undertaking a more detailed survey of park managers and researchers to identify specific research and monitoring requirements for managing climate change and its impacts in the Australian Alps. This report presents the survey, results, implications and recommendations for research priorities for the Australian Alps National Parks.
1.1 The survey
Developing the survey involved an iterative process with input from Griffith University academics, members of the Australian Alps Liaison Committee and a Principal Research Scientist from NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service to formulate the aims of the survey, which stakeholders would be surveyed and the design of the survey including its format and the specific questions used. The aim of the project was to identify research needs and priorities for climate change adaptation and mitigation for the Australian Alps. The target audience for the survey was refined to focus on Parks staff and researchers involved in the Australian Alps. Three iterations of the survey were produced and pilot tested until it was ready for release. The survey consisted of 20 questions including questions about impacts of climate change, priority areas for future research and background information about respondents expertise/positions. Parks staff and researchers were contacted using e‐mail by the Australian Alps Liaison Committee or its nominees in early December 2011. Researchers in the Australian Alps were also contacted using by an email sent to members of the Australian Institute of Alpine Studies by Dr Ken Green in early December 2011. The e‐mails outlined the project, including its aims and importance and asked staff/researchers to undertake the questionnaire electronically using an e‐mail link. The survey was completed on the 12 March 2012.
1.2 Survey results
A total of 31 of people responded to the survey consisting of 17 Parks staff, 6 Parks staff who are also researcher, 4 researcher and 4 others. All respondents agreed that climate change is already occurring in the Australian Alps. The most common impacts were decreased snow cover, increased fire frequency and changes in the timing of biological events decreased/altered rainfall and water availability, and increases in invasive species.
Research/monitoring was seen as a major limit to adaptation and management of climate change impacts in the Australian Alps. Although climate change research already exists in the Australian Alps, they wanted more information about the range of threats and better ways to deal with them. The most important issues where invasive species, threats to endemic species and plant communities and increased risk of fires.
Specifically they want more information on bogs/moss beds/fen communities, alpine plant communities, frogs, the Mountain Pygmy‐possum and Broad‐toothed Rat. They were very concerned to know more about how climate change will increase the abundance, diversity and impacts of invasive plants and animals. This includes many specific weed and animal threats and ways to manage them including feral horses, introduced deer and hawkweed among others. They also want long‐term datasets established and/or supported including on the spread of invasive species and changes in hydrology and wetlands. In terms of how this information should be disseminated, Parks staff prefers science‐management workshops and reports, with factsheets and websites also useful.
1.3 Implications and recommendations
The survey highlighted the range and scale of the problems faced by those managing the Australian Alps. They know that climate change is occurring and increasing the impact of many existing threats, and that much more needs to be known to assist management. This reflects the complexity of dealing with climate change more generally for those responsible for conservation of natural ecosystems in Australia. As always the challenge is how do as much as possible with limited resources. Therefore we recommend the following approach and priorities to support climate change research for the Alps:
1. Maintain and support existing long term monitoring programs, particularly those already run and supported by the Parks. They already exist and are often part of day to day management. The Alps are lucky as they already have several programs, some with over 50 years of data. This is very unusual in Australia and puts the Alps at the forefront of monitoring the effects of climate change and other processes.
2. Provide support through co‐funding and/or logistical support when approached by outside organisations (Universities or others) for research that match the topics listed by Park staff. Co‐funding and/or logistical support provides greater benefit to the Alps from limited funding pools.
3. Widely disseminate existing research. There is a lot of good research in the Alps, but often Park staff are unaware of it. Science‐management workshops and newsletters are great ways to promote recent research findings and ensure that research is easily available. This can also include practical implications of research for management.
... The second challenge lies in the link between the predicted climate change effects (increase in temperatures and decreased overall precipitation including reductions in snow cover duration and extent), with the importance of snow cover for many alpine species, particularly endemics (Costin et al. 2000;Green & Osborne 2012). Unfortunately, adaptation strategies to minimise extinctions such as assisted migration of species, or deliberate alteration of the current habitat to maintain snow cover (shading, snow fences, snow making) are unfeasible due to biophysical, ecological and economic limitations (Morrison & Pickering 2011). ...
... A previous report for NCCARF assessing limits to adaptation strategies to climate change in the Australian Alps (Morrison & Pickering 2011) found that conservation managers in the Australian Alps favour strategies that promote ecosystem resilience and connectivity. ...
... In some cases, the severity of the impacts may exceed the capacity of the ecosystem to recover if impacts exceed some threshold level. For the alpine flora the resilience of the ecosystem is threated by reduced snow cover and other direct biophysical impacts of climate change, fire, grazing, weeds and tourism (Morrison & Pickering 2011). Dealing with these threats is expensive and difficult and requires carefully focused management responses (Morrison & Pickering 2011). ...
The alpine region around Australia’s highest mountain, Mt Kosciuszko, is part of one of the three most at risk ecosystems in Australia from climate change. With higher temperatures and decreased precipitation, snow cover is already declining with even greater reductions predicted in the short to medium term (2020 to 2050). Consequently the distribution of many native plants and animals may contract, while the distribution of weeds and feral animals may expand. Wildfires in the region are also likely to be more frequent and intense.
To contribute to our understanding of how changes in the environment alter plant composition and ecological process, we conducted a series of functional trait analyses of existing composition datasets. We collected trait data in the field for 220 species including canopy height, leaf area, leaf dry matter content and specific leaf area (SLA). Variation in traits among the alpine flora was not related to species distributional ranges. Traits were strongly associated with growth forms, with shrubs often taller than herbs and graminoids, but often had small, tough, long-lasting leaves.
Species traits were combined with relative cover values to calculate community trait weighted means, a commonly used measure of functional diversity. Functional diversity varied with altitude/duration of snow cover. For example, shrubs which are taller with small tough leaves dominated lower altitude summits, while at higher altitude summits, large, soft leaved herbs and graminoids dominated. Late lying snowpatches areas with short growing seasons were dominated by low growing herbs and graminoids with small leaves while areas with longer growing seasons were dominated by herbs and graminoids that were taller and had larger leaves.
Recovery from fire differed among plant communities. The composition and functional diversity of recovering tall alpine herbfield is trending towards that of equivalent unburnt sites, while burnt windswept feldmark was colonised by graminoids and herbs that are often found in tall alpine herbfield species, with limited shrub recovery in the first nine years post fire.
Grazing by feral hares had no effect on composition or functional diversity, while vegetation recovering from cattle grazing showed clear changes in composition and functional diversity even 43 years later. Prioritising management for this high value conservation region, therefore, involves enhancing resilience by minimising existing threats, particularly those from fire, weeds and hard-hooved grazing animals which will be exacerbate by climate change.
... First, they put the dimensions that matter most to people at the centre of the analysis (O'Brien and . Second, knowing what people value, how these values come into being, and how they change is essential for setting the goals of adaptation (Barnett, 2010), understanding the limits of adaptation (Morrison and Pickering, 2012), and how these limits may change over time (Evans et al., 2012;McNamara et al., 2012). For example, knowing that values shape and are shaped by migration (Salt, 2003;Stimson and Minnery, 1998) means that the goals of adaptation need to be responsive to population changes. ...
... Many have relied on qualitative methods, such as in-depth interviews and focus groups (e.g. Coulthard, 2008;McNamara et al., 2012;Morrison and Pickering, 2012;Mortreux and Barnett, 2009;Puleston, 2012;Wolf et al., 2010), for data collection, thereby limiting the ability to make generalisations about the broader communities at risk. There has also been limited exploration of the plurality of values that exist within communities and how these can be captured, explained and incorporated into adaptation planning (Barnett, 2010; notable exceptions are Puleston, 2012 andWolf et al., 2013). ...
Understanding the values and socio-economic characteristics of people at risk from climate change will inform how people feel about the likely distribution of impacts, as well as adaptation responses. This knowledge is necessary if adaptation is to achieve distributive fairness now and into the future. This study advances methods and analyses used in values-based adaptation research by using segmentation to explain the diversity of values that exist within a community, and on this basis identify particular groups at risk. A telephone survey was conducted with residents of Lakes Entrance, Australia—a coastal community already adapting to projected sea-level rise. The purpose was to determine the priorities residents place on a range of lived values—valuations that individuals make about what is important in their lives and the places they live. The telephone survey data was then analysed using cluster analysis to develop a lived values typology of residents. The analysis revealed that there are at least eight types of residents living in Lakes Entrance and that each group of residents has a unique set of lived values that will be differentially affected by sea-level rise and adaptation. The findings indicate that if sea-level rise adaptation policy is to be distributively fair it needs to develop a suite of adaptation responses that ensure that the lived values of each group of residents, and thus a diversity of values, are maintained or enhanced.
... First, they put the dimensions that matter most to people at the centre of the analysis (O'Brien and . Second, knowing what people value, how these values come into being, and how they change is essential for setting the goals of adaptation (Barnett, 2010), understanding the limits of adaptation (Morrison and Pickering, 2012), and how these limits may change over time (Evans et al., 2012;McNamara et al., 2012). For example, knowing that values shape and are shaped by migration (Salt, 2003;Stimson and Minnery, 1998) means that the goals of adaptation need to be responsive to population changes. ...
... Many have relied on qualitative methods, such as in-depth interviews and focus groups (e.g. Coulthard, 2008;McNamara et al., 2012;Morrison and Pickering, 2012;Mortreux and Barnett, 2009;Puleston, 2012;Wolf et al., 2010), for data collection, thereby limiting the ability to make generalisations about the broader communities at risk. There has also been limited exploration of the plurality of values that exist within communities and how these can be captured, explained and incorporated into adaptation planning (Barnett, 2010; notable exceptions are Puleston, 2012 andWolf et al., 2013). ...
Arguments that fairness should be a guiding principle of climate change adaptation have been primarily concerned with distributive and procedural aspects of fairness, with far less attention paid to the temporal, spatial and interactional dimensions of fairness. This paper presents the results of a study that sought to understand the multiple dimensions of fairness of adaptation strategies that exist or can be developed to deal with sea-level rise. The study focused on five small communities along the south-east coast of Australia—Lakes Entrance, Seaspray, Port Albert, McLoughlins Beach and Manns Beach. Interviews were conducted with residents of the local communities to examine perceptions of current adaptation policies and their social impacts. A questionnaire was used to develop a nuanced understanding of the types of people living in these communities and their everyday lives, practices, and relationships. This enabled us to identify a range of non-material social impacts that may occur as a result of sea-level rise. Finally, focus groups were used to obtain community perspectives on the fairness of a range of potential future adaptation strategies. Together, these methods revealed that adaptation to sea-level rise is likely to affect some groups in the community significantly more than others, and in ways that will fundamentally change the nature of living in these communities. Understanding nuances in the social values of communities reveals how policies can be adapted to provide fairer outcomes for all community members through processes that create the time and space required to establish long-term working relationships between communities and government.
... The goal of adaptation in the Australian Alps is to sustain ecosystems and tourism industries that depend on winter snow, which continues to decline (Morrison and Pickering 2011. ...
This chapter explores six case studies of climate change impacts in Australia, the scope and opportunity for adaptation, the possibility that limits to adaptation exist and their nature and causes. It reports on a series of six linked research projects which investigated the possibilities of, and limits to, adaptation. The six case studies were selected purposefully. The first key finding is that adaptation goals can best be met through portfolios of adaptation strategies. The second key finding is that some barriers to adaptation are de facto limits. The third key finding is that socio-economic limits to adaptation may arise from processes that are distant in space and time. The fourth key finding is that limits to adaptation can arise through trade-offs in the way resources are allocated and places are managed. The projects each identify goals of adaptation and strategies to achieve them.
... The goal of adaptation in the Australian Alps is to sustain ecosystems and tourism industries that depend on winter snow, which continues to decline (Morrison and Pickering 2011. ...
Research on the barriers and limits to climate change adaptation identifies many factors, but describes few processes whereby adaptation is constrained or may indeed fail to avoid catastrophic losses. It often assumes that barriers are by and large distinct from limits to adaptation. We respond to recent calls for comparative studies that are able to further knowledge about the underlying drivers of barriers and limits to adaptation. We compare six cases from across Australia, including those in alpine areas, rivers, reefs, wetlands, small inland communities, and islands, with the aim of identifying common underlying drivers of barriers and limits to adaptation. We find that the path-dependent nature of the institutions that govern natural resources and public goods is a deep driver of barriers and limits to adaptation. Path-dependent institutions are resistant to change. When this resistance causes the changes necessary for adaptation to be slower than changes in climate, then it becomes a limit to adaptation.
... An understanding of the limits and potential barriers to adaptation can enhance the objectives, design and implementation of adaptation efforts (Morrison and Pickering 2011). The concepts of barriers and limits are often used interchangeably in adaption planning. ...
... There are 8 resort areas in the Australian Alps with 2924 ha suitable for alpine skiing, which in 2011 attracted about 2.5 million ski visitor days (Morrison and Pickering 2012). Ski tourism is one of the principal economic activities in the Australian Alps (Pickering et al. 2004). ...
Biodiversity conservation continues to be a challenging task for societies worldwide. We undertook a resilience assessment to address the following question: What are the ramifications of social-ecological system dynamics for biodiversity governance of a nationally significant landscape? Resilience assessment offers promise for guiding response strategies, potentially enabling consideration of ecological, social, economic, and governance influences on biodiversity-related activities. Most resilience assessments have, however, struggled to effectively incorporate governance influences. We applied a modified version of the Resilience Alliance workbook approach to explicitly address governance influences at each stage of an assessment of internationally significant biodiversity features in protected areas of the Australian Alps. The vulnerability of the Alps system to climate change suggests that it is moving into a release stage, with subsequent transformation hypothesized. Network governance is argued as enabling flexible, adaptive management and comprehensive engagement of stakeholders, both of which are critical to shaping how this transformation of the Alps as a valued focal system will occur. The Australian Alps Liaison Committee provides a promising governance structure for collaboration and comanagement across multiple jurisdictions. Our contribution was to demonstrate how a resilience assessment that explicitly embeds governance influences in social-ecological system dynamics can point to pathways for governance reform in the context of system transformation.
Adapting to climate change is a critical problem facing humanity. This involves reconsidering our lifestyles, and is linked to our actions as individuals, societies and governments. This book presents top science and social science research on whether the world can adapt to climate change. Written by experts, both academics and practitioners, it examines the risks to ecosystems, demonstrating how values, culture and the constraining forces of governance act as barriers to action. As a review of science and a holistic assessment of adaptation options, it is essential reading for those concerned with responses to climate change, especially researchers, policymakers, practitioners, and graduate students. Significant features include historical, contemporary, and future insights into adaptation to climate change; coverage of adaptation issues from different perspectives: climate science, hydrology, engineering, ecology, economics, human geography, anthropology and political science; and contributions from leading researchers and practitioners from around the world.
It is widely accepted in the scientific community that climate change is a reality, and that changes are happening with increasing rapidity. In this second edition, leading climate researcher Barrie Pittock revisits the effects that global warming is having on our planet, in light of ever-evolving scientific research. Presenting all sides of the arguments about the science and possible remedies, Pittock examines the latest analyses of climate change, such as new and alarming observations regarding Arctic sea ice, the recently published IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, and the policies of the new Australian Government and how they affect the implementation of climate change initiatives. New material focuses on massive investments in large-scale renewables, such as the kind being taken up in California, as well as many smaller-scale activities in individual homes and businesses which are being driven by both regulatory and market mechanisms. The book includes extensive endnotes with links to ongoing and updated information, as well as some new illustrations. While the message is clear that climate change is here (and in some areas, might already be having disastrous effects), there is still hope for the future, and the ideas presented here will inspire people to take action. Climate Change: The Science, Impacts and Solutions is an important reference for students in environmental or social sciences, policy makers, and people who are genuinely concerned about the future of our environment.
Maximum winter snow depth at Spencers Creek in the Snowy Mountains of southeastern Australia has decreased somewhat since 1962, but the snow depth in spring has declined strongly (by about 40 per cent). The stronger decrease in spring snow depth is largely attributable to warming during July-September. The slight decline in precipitation that has been observed during this season is too weak to account for the decline in snow depth. Interannual variations in regional surface air pressure are closely related to snow depth, but there is only a weak trend in pressure and this trend is insufficient to account for the decline in spring snow depth. Thus the warming that is the proximate cause of the decline in spring snow depth is not simply reflecting a change in the synoptic patterns. In the light of recent studies implicating the enhanced greenhouse effect in the warming trend over Australia, the results of this study suggest that the Australian alpine region may already be experiencing significant effects of greenhouse climate change.
This report assesses the implications of climate change on winter tourism and natural hazards management in the European Alps, with a particular focus on how these activities can adapt to climate change. The report presents the first systematic cross-country analysis of the effects of climate change on snow-reliability in the European Alps. It also examines the implications of climate change for a range of natural hazards prevalent in the Alps, with a particular focus on frameworks and financial mechanisms to manage natural hazards in three countries: France, Switzerland and Austria. Technological and behavioural adaptation measures, together with institutional structures and risk transfer mechanisms, are also reviewed.
It is widely accepted in the scientific community that climate change is a reality, and that changes are happening with increasing rapidity. In this second edition, leading climate researcher Barrie Pittock revisits the effects that global warming is having on our planet, in light of ever-evolving scientific research. Presenting all sides of the arguments about the science and possible remedies, Pittock examines the latest analyses of climate change, such as new and alarming observations regarding Arctic sea ice, the recently published IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, and the policies of the new Australian Government and how they affect the implementation of climate change initiatives. New material focuses on massive investments in large-scale renewables, such as the kind being taken up in California, as well as many smaller-scale activities in individual homes and businesses which are being driven by both regulatory and market mechanisms. The book includes extensive endnotes with links to ongoing and updated information, as well as some new illustrations. While the message is clear that climate change is here (and in some areas, might already be having disastrous effects), there is still hope for the future, and the ideas presented here will inspire people to take action. Climate Change: The Science, Impacts and Solutions is an important reference for students in environmental or social sciences, policy makers, and people who are genuinely concerned about the future of our environment.