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Dealing with desertification in the
Canary Islands: a strategic planning
methodology for complex problematiques
Serafín Corral Quintana
University of La Laguna, Canary Islands (Spain) – e-mail: scorral@ull.edu.es
Carlos Legna Verna
University of La Laguna, Canary Islands (Spain) – e-mail: clegna@ull.es
Marisa Tejedor Salguero
University of La Laguna, Canary Islands (Spain) – e-mail: martesa@ull.es
Carmen Concepción Jimenez Mendoza
University of La Laguna, Canary Islands (Spain) – e-mail: cacojime@ull.es
Francisco Díaz Peña
University of La Laguna, Canary Islands (Spain) – e-mail: fjdipe@gmail.com
José Luis Rivero Ceballos
University of La Laguna, Canary Islands (Spain) – e-mail: jlrivero@ull.edu.es
Jesús Hernández Hernández
University of La Laguna, Canary Islands (Spain) – e-mail: jfhdez@ull.es
David Romero-Manrique de Lara
University of La Laguna, Canary Islands (Spain) – e-mail: david.r.manrique@gmail.com
David Legna-de la Nuez
University of La Laguna, Canary Islands (Spain) – e-mail: dlegna@ull.es
Abstract
The nature of governance issues (complex and uncertain world, lack of information, need of
bear in mind qualitative and quantitative information, participation of different actors in the
decision making processes, etc.) imply that there is no a unique solution. On the contrary, there
are different alternatives strategies, which lead the social system to also different futures
(scenarios). Working with qualitative information, the methodology allow the decision makers and
ARETHUSE Scientific Journal of Economics and Business Management
34
social actors to be aware of the directions their decisions will lead the system; and which are the
key variables for the implementation of public policies, to achieve the desired (or agreed)
scenario. An integrated methodology is discussed, using the process of desertification in the
Canary Islands to illustrate it The first section deals with the elaboration of qualitative models; the
second with the application of system dynamics based mainly in the results of the qualitative
analysis; the third one the definition of logical path of scenarios; and in the last section the
authors explain how to combine these tools to select strategies.
JEL classification: Q28 Government Policy of Renewable Resources and Conservation
Keywords
Desertification, Complex Issues, Policy Strategies, Integrated Assessment .
1. Introduction
In recent years, the so called decision tools –in which Decision Support Systems (DSS)
are included– have been enhanced not only because of technology but also because of
greater skills and openness to actually use such tools for consultation purposes. In a sense
we have been assisting to a change of place of decision tools within decision-making
processes. Emerging more accountable and inclusive governance styles, indicate that there
is not a decision maker (there was never only one, is just that DSS developers are no
longer being naïve in that regards) but debates that take place over policy issues.
Accountability and inclusive processes have been progressively promoted in the last two
decades through legislation. Moreover, there has been also a progressive recognition that
it is not at the level of decision that appropriate consultation, dialogue and deliberation
take place among those concerned1 with a certain problematique.
As said earlier, tools to inform such processes have been changing over time not only in
the adoption of different technologies and design concepts, but also in conceptual
framework. From a recent review of DSS for environmental issues, latest developments
comprise the integration of social research methods and institutional analysis (Guimarães
Pereira and Corral Quintana 2002b, Corral Quintana, Funtowicz, and Guimerães Pereira
2002).
Environmental issues entail multiple dimensions of analysis that cannot be
amalgamated into a single scale of measurement because they pertain to different aspects
and actors of the processes. Actors talk different languages, express uncertainty in
different ways – hence, new developments for information tools have to take into account
for this diversity. In the past, many decision systems corresponding to institutional
1 Those are frequently called social actors, as well as stakeholders (North American school) and also
in Dutch and German literature, the bettrofenen (those concerned). Although through this paper,
the word actors is used and while waiting for a better name, by actors it is meant here, those that
may affect or are affected by a “problematique”, and this includes not only those that have a stake or
interest, those that play a role but also those that are concerned or affected by a situation.
Dealing with desertification in the Canary Islands
35
requests, aimed at delivering expert knowledge to legitimate decisions. However, emerging
governance styles require interfaces for extended involvement of the actors of concern
that break away from information divide (De Marchi et al. 2000) (De Marchi et al., 2001).
There is here an opportunity for developing these tools as platforms for involvement of
different flows of knowledge and wisdom. Such tools are no longer viewed as the means to
legitimate decisions but rather to initiate and inform debates and decision-making
processes.
2. The Desertification process in Small Islands: a complex issue
Desertification is the result of the action of a set of processes that cause the decline of
biological potential of a territory and its productivity. It is basically based on the negative
impact of human activities in geographical areas under arid conditions. Thus, the United
Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defined in Article 1 this process
as "land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors,
including climatic variations and human activities" (UNCCD 1994).
It is a complex phenomenon in which multiple factors of various kinds are interfering.
It is an environmental problem, but also a social and economical one. Desertification is
not due solely to aspects such as: soil erosion, loss of vegetation cover, soil salinization,
loss of welfare of the population, social marginalization, etc., but also, and mainly to the
interaction among them.
The term desertification has been incorporated to the common language in recent
times, although in some cases it has been done using misinterpretation of its meaning.
Desertification neither is any kind of environmental degradation, or is limited to
erosion or drought processes, however the strong existing relations with them. As said
before it is not a purely environmental problem, it also has important social and economic
connotations, The UNCCD in its preamble declares: "...that desertification is caused by
complex interactions among physical, biological, political, social, cultural and economic".
However, it is usually not associated with the abandonment of traditional farming
systems, agricultural intensification, concentration of economic activity in coastal zones,
among others.
Besides taking into account the effect of this process on human welfare in the broadest
sense, it may affect as well education, food and health among other societal pillars and
hence the quality of life (Adeel et al. 2005).
Decision-making actions are not only complex due to these systemic interactions but
also due to the involvement of different stakeholders –private and public- with specific
perspectives and values and pursuing different interests. Those are coming from fields
such as environment, agriculture, hydrology, land use, education and economics, among
others; and whose powers are usually located in different institutional bodies and not
always even the same administration fields. Combating desertification requires a major
effort of integration, coordination and also consensus among those involved.
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The Canary Islands due to its geographical location and insular character, is a territory
where ecosystems and agricultural systems are generally very fragile which makes them
very sensitive to these processes. In fact, there are nowadays, areas already presenting
evident effects of desertification while others are clearly at high risk of suffering it.
Among the main triggers of desertification in the Canaries, both natural causes (i.e.
climate, topography, soil, etc.) and those related to human activities (grazing, intensive
agriculture and loss of traditional culture styles, quality and management of irrigation
water, changes in the characteristics of the soil cover and its sealing, population
growth,...) are presented .
The analysis carried out by the authors shows that about 82% of the archipelago is
included within the definition of aridity and therefore at risk of desertification. Actually,
18% of the territory could be considered potentially affected by these processes. The
Islands of Lanzarote (LZ) and Fuerteventura (FV) are at 100% of its area within arid or
semiarid regime, while in the island of La Palma (LP) only 31% of the territory might be
considered as dry lands. Table 1 shows the percentage of area and total area occupied by
the different kinds of aridity in each of the islands is presented and the map in Figure 1
represents the delimitation of each of these classes in the archipelago.
Thus, it is clear the problematique at hand involves economic, cultural and
environmental variables, within a social setting in which the involved stakeholders act in
order to pursue their goals. This is the kind of reality that must be recognized when
defining strategies to confront the currently underway desertification process in the
Canary Islands.
Regime LZ F
V
GC TF LG LP EH
ha %ha %ha %ha %ha %ha %ha %
A
rid 73352 86,8 143907 86,6 57887 37,1 32107 15,8 6220 16,9 138 0,2 3611 13,5
Semi-arid 11144 13,2 22256 13,4 66619 42,8 77976 38,3 19033 51,7 11792 16,7 13942 52,0
Sub-humid
dry
- - - - 15081 9,7 32919 16,2 5000 13,6 10336 14,6 3481 13,0
Sub-humid
humid
- - - - 14413 9,2 51944 25,5 6200 16,9 23975 33,9 5800 21,6
Humid - - - - 1825 1,2 8550 4,2 338 0,9 24450 34,6 - -
Table 1. Occupied area for certain classes of aridity at each island using an aridity index (Pa/ETo).
(ETo based on the Thornthwaite method)2
Legenda:
Pa: Annual Precipitation. ETo: Annual potential Evapotranspiration. LZ: Lanzarote.
FV: Fuerteventura. GC: Gran Canaria. TF: Tenerife. LG: La Gomera. LP: La Palma. EH: El Hierro
2 Thornthwaite (1948) developed an empirical equation for determining the monthly
Evapotranspiration (ETo) based on the average air temperature, with a correction for the
astronomical length of day and number of days in the month. For a more detailed discussion of the
different methods of determining the degree of aridity analysis. see Tejedor et al. (2013)
Dealing with desertification in the Canary Islands
37
Figure 1. Map of the Canary Islands Aridity regimen (ETo based on the Thornthwaite method)
3. Implementing a Strategic Planning Methodology
to Desertification in small Islands
The proposed methodology is based on researches of the authors on the elaboration of
approaches to improve Strategic Decisions (Kljajic, Legna Verna, and Skraba 2005b, a,
Legna Verna 2007, 2000, Legna Verna and González 2006, Legna Verna and Skraba 2010,
Corral Quintana, Funtowicz, and Guimerães Pereira 2002, Guimarães Pereira and Corral
Quintana 2002a, Guimarães Pereira and Corral Quintana 2002b).
In order to design strategies and policies to address complex problematiques such as
desertification processes, a methodology that allows an integrated view of the issue and to
propose the most appropriate strategies is necessary. This method integrates formal and
informal aspects, which may be used later in the resolution of the problem. This focus can
“also be extended as a means to identify and design the social contexts where decisions are made
or considered” (Corral Quintana and Funtowicz 1998). In this regard a methodology that
combines tools from different fields of knowledge (social, natural and exact sciences) is
implemented in the present study.
The methodological integrated framework proposed in this paper to deal with the case
of Desertification followed the subsequent steps. Firstly, a detection of the key variables
that influence the problem of desertification as well as the interactions that may occur
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among them was performed. In order to do so a qualitative model (QM) of the
desertification issue was developed. The QM was based on formal and informal sources of
knowledge such as analysis of statistical data series (evolution of desertification,
agricultural practices and crop yields productivity, ...), interviews with experts and
stakeholders, application of methods such as the Delphi method to determine the
probability of certain events or the importance of the variables, among others. This first
step provides an initial overview of the different variables that influence desertification,
facilitating the understanding of how the variables interact with each other.
The qualitative knowledge attained was implemented in a second phase as a crucial
input in the design of a dynamic model, using system dynamics methodologies, which
allowed exploring the structure of the system under assessment –and its social,
environmental and economical dimensions- and how the most relevant variables behave
over time and in due course what might be the effects arising from the desertification
dynamic behaviour.
The results of both the qualitative model and the system dynamics modelling were finally
used to construct different scenarios integrating the temporal evolution of the most
relevant variables, allowing both highlighting existing systemic nodes that should be taken
care of and analysing different courses of action -desired and undesirable- of the system.
This will ultimately facilitate the definition of the strategies, policies and action plans
to tackle the issue of desertification in the Canaries.
In the following sections the integrated set of methodologies mentioned above, and the
results of its implementation in the assessment of the current situation and trend
development of the desertification process will be described.
3.1. A qualitative assessment of desertification
Social systems are very complex and to understand them in order to prepare decisions,
particularly strategic ones, it is necessary to work with variables that in the majority of
cases are not quantitative. Additionally, even in the case of quantifiable variables,
sometimes researchers do not have sufficient information to build econometric
relationships among them. These two restrictions may be overcome by the construction
of qualitative models, as the one that is presented in this section. It does not give precise
relationships between the variables but allows to understand the structure of the system
and to detect the main relationships and roles of the variables.
With qualitative models, the precise world of the econometric and quantitative models
is abandoned and, evidently, we are introduced in a more imprecise but less reductionist
one. In this world, the relationships or equations have to be understood as estimations of
the direction (positive or negative) of the change of a depending variable that is a
consequence of a change of an independent one.
With the MICMAC method (Matrice d’Impacts Croisés-Multiplication Appliquée à une
Classification), the following typology may be distinguished (see, for instance, (Godet
1991a, b, Roubelat 1993, Legna Verna 2005, Jouvenel de 1993):
Dealing with desertification in the Canary Islands
39
a) a)Leading variables, which produce strong impacts on other variables and, on the
contrary, are not significantly affected by other’s changes;
b) Interacting or feedback variables, which both produce -directly or indirectly- important
impacts over the others and are also affected by their changes;
c) Dependent variables, that are the contrary of the first group, because they are very
sensitive to the changes of the other variables but do not produce important effects
over them; and, finally,
d) Variables that may be paid less attention, because they neither produce nor receive
important effects.
The model was built having in mind the following questions: which are the main forces
-and the feedback between them- leading the transformations of the process of
desertification? Which are the main policies that may be applied to these variables and
feedbacks, with the aim of improving the quality of life of the population and diminishing
the progression of desertification?
With the purpose of providing some insight about those questions relevant variables
were selected after analysis of literature on the subject and discussion with specialist in
the field. Thus, the following variables were taken into account in the qualitative analysis
with regard to the case study under assessment presented in the previous section
regarding desertification in small islands:
‒ Degradation of Aquifers (Aquifers)
‒ Degradation of Biomass and Biodiversity (Biomass)
‒ Degradation of Quality of Irrigation Water (IrrigWater)
‒ Increase of construction and road network (Infrastruc)
‒ Increase of desert (Desert)
‒ Increase of Land assigned to Rural Practices that Degrade the Environment
(RPDELand).
‒ Increase of Land assigned to Rural Practices that Protect the Environment (RPPELand)
‒ Increase of Population (Population)
‒ Increase of Rainfall Erosivity (Erosivity)
‒ Increase of Tourism (Tourism)
‒ Increase of Waste discharges (Waste)
‒ Increase of Wind erosivity (Wind)
‒ Increase of Soil erodibility (SoilErod)
The relationship among those variables can be displayed in the form of graphical
representation (see fig. 2), in which the y-axis displays the leading forces while x-axis
shows the depending ones. The interaction of these two dimensions allows distinguishing
in the graphic four areas of analysis according to the ability of the variable to influence the
rest and the issue. Thus, the leading variables of the system are positioned on the left up
corner, while opposite the dependent variables are located on the right down one. With
regard to the interacting variables these are located on the right up side while the less
important ones for the desertification issue are on the left down area.
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Because of the qualitative analysis, it may be observed that the leading variables
respecting the desertification process are the lands assigned to agricultural practices (both
sustainable and non-sustainable) and the evolution of population. The degradation of the
aquifers, effects on biomass, generation of waste and the water used on irrigation are
dependent variables, meaning that those receive the main impacts, which produce in turn
desertification. With respect to the interacting variables the role played by desertification
and tourism should be emphasized, since they both impact and are affected by the
desertification generating a feedback process.
The knowledge obtained and structured through the implementation of the qualitative
analysis are the main inputs for the system dynamics analysis carried out and the
scenarios discussed in the next sections. The way of structuring information obtained as
result of this kind of analysis is useful in decision-making processes, since the key policy
variables (leading and interacting in the model) are revealed.
3.2 A System Dynamics Analysis
In order to complement and improve the knowledge coming from the qualitative
analysis, a System Dynamics Model (SDM) is build. Its purpose is threefold: to help to
understand the system that produces the desertification in some areas of Canary Islands;
to build scenarios; and to detect the forces (variables) whose impacts over the
desertification are important and may be changed, through out the implementation of
public policies. With this knowledge, the decision maker knows which policies may be
implemented to move Canary Island away from the “bad path” (that increases the
desertification) to the “desired path”, which control and eventually reverses this
processes.
The system that produces the process of desertification in Canary Islands is named
“Tendency Model”.
A flow increases the Desert, which is considered a level in the Canary Islands’ model
(figure 3). Five processes that have been increasingly taken place during the last decades
in the region are directly responsible for it: the increasing rates of soil erodibility, of
rainfall erosivity and of wind erosivity; and the degradation of the aquifers, the biomass
and the biodiversity (in figure 3, variables in blue located below Desert). The impact of
them is weighted by the parameter called "Effect". These processes are the visible part of
the iceberg. Nevertheless, they are the result of the subsystem that is below them, in
which there are two sets of affecting variables may be found. The first set includes the
exogenous variables (text in red and with the backgrounds of the levels in blue at the
bottom of figure 3). The second set includes the variables whose behaviour is affected by
the first set and that, in turn, produce impacts over soil erodibility, rainfall erosivity, wind
erosivity, aquifers, biomass, and biodiversity (in black, between the exogenous variables
and these last ones).
Dealing with desertification in the Canary Islands
41
Figure 2. Indirect influence and dependence map
The exogenous variables of the model are the levels Quantity of Land assigned to Rural
Practices that Protect the Environment (RPPE), Quantity of Land assigned to Rural
Practices that Degrade the Environment (RPDE), Population and Tourism (this last one is
partially independent, will be explained later on). These processes have their own
dynamic, which are currently independent of the desertification. RPPE helps to control
the advance of the desertification and may help to stop the process.
The RPDE have had, unfortunately, an important increase rate due to their private
profitability, which differs from their lower social profitability. In some cases, the
European Agricultural Policy has favoured this class of activities. Their increase degrades
the biomass and the biodiversity, and elevates rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility wind
erosivity and waste discharges.
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The increase of the population produces a degradation of the aquifers, and an
augmentation of the waste discharges, of the construction and of the road network. In
turn, the construction and the road network degrades the aquifers, increases the soil
erodibility, the biomass, and the biodiversity. The waste discharges have the same impacts
over the erodibility, the biomass, and the biodiversity and, in addition, degrade the quality
of the irrigation water. These effects are strong, due to the characteristics of the
organization of the territory adopted by the Islands. Through the intermediation of other
variables, they accelerate the desertification.
Moreover, the majority of tourism practices of the Islands are specialized in "sun and
beaches", which has produced a high speed of increase of the waste discharges rates, of the
private construction and of the road network, whose effects have been already
commented.
Based on this information two simulations have been run. The first one was run using
the same values of the Tendency Model. This "Tendency Simulation" (TendS) supposes
that the government does not implement active policies to control the processes of
desertification and that the social actors will continue their present behaviour. A second
simulation was run, for the "Foster Cities and Protective Rural Spaces Simulation"
(FC&PRS), which on the contrary, supposes that the authorities decide to organize the
rural and urban areas in order to improve the environment and to restrain the
desertification.
The urban areas are called "Foster Cities" bearing in mind the concept of sustainable
cities and spaces promoted nowadays by a group of architects, who defends that architects
should design and build energy efficient buildings being sensitive to the cultural and
environmental location.
Protected Rural Spaces (PRS) means that the rural spaces will be organized doing a
differentiation between the following categories. A first one includes the areas where
there is not economic activities, except some few agricultural production which use
techniques that do not destroy the environment; they are protected and the population
density is low. A second category includes areas where the agriculture, some agro
industries and services activities are allowed, but they use techniques that preserve the
environment. The last category includes areas where a new agriculture will be developed,
that are capable not only of stopping the desertification but of stimulate the recuperation
of the soil. This is the case of Jatropha, whose production has been initiated in a deserted
area of the island of Fuerteventura
This scenario includes, coherently, the Foster Cities and the Protected Rural Spaces.
The Tendency Scenario shows that if the behaviour of the society goes on as it is at
present, the desertification processes will be inexorable. On the contrary, the second
simulation shows that the processes may be reverted.
The analysis of the behaviour of other variables allows an additional vision of the two
scenarios. It may be observed that, although the population, the tourism and the
construction and road network increase, the desertification may be controlled in Canary
Dealing with desertification in the Canary Islands
43
Island, if the government implements the policies to move away the region from the bad
path (TendS) to the “desired path” (FC&PRS). After several discussions and policies
analysis, the team concluded that it is possible to implement public policies to modify
several constants. They have been classified en tree groups: a) Effect of Population over
Construction, Effect of Tourism over Construction and effect of Construction over
Aquifers; b) Effect of Rural Practices that Degrade the Environment over Rainfall
Erosivity; c) Effect of Rural Practices that Protect the Environment over Biomass, Effect
of Rural Practices that Protect the Environment over Rainfall Erosivity, Effect of Rural
Practices that Protect the Environment over Soil Erodibility, Effect of Rural Practices that
Protect the Environment over Wind Erosivity; d) Effect of Waste Discharges over
Aquifers.
The Canary Islands have experienced a high increase of the population and the tourism
during the last decades, which, in turn, has produced a high increase of the construction
and road network. It has been very destructive of the environment. The FC&PRS scenario
intend to reduces this negative impact through policies that concentrate the population
and reduces the negative effect of the construction over the territory and the impact of
the road network over aquifers. These are the constant to be changed (through the
policies) of the first group. The second one refers to the Rural Practices that Degrade the
Environment: the FC&PRS expects to implement policies to reduce its negative impact
over the rainfall erosivity and its rate of growth. The third group includes constants that
refer to the positive impacts of the Rural Practices that Protect the Environment and to
its rate of growth. The FC&PRS aims at the substitution of the destructive rural practices
by the protective ones. In addition, it intends to increase its positive impacts. Finally, the
desired scenario foresees as well the implementation of a policy to reduce the negative
effect of the waste discharges over aquifers, which in Canary Islands are very important,
due to the scarcity of water.
These results have to be interpreted carefully. They do not give a quantitative and exact
behaviour of the variables on the future. They give only their tendency (increase or
decrease). They allow to understand the structure and behaviour of the system and to
answer to “if questions”. For instance, which will be the effect (positive or negative) over
the desertification and other variables if the government implements a policy to reduce
the effect of the increase of the population over the rate of growth of the construction
and the road network? Alternatively, this other one: is it probable that a set of policies
capable of leading Canary Islands to a scenario “FC&PRS” would reverts the tendency to
the desertification?
4. Rethinking Strategies. The paths of desertification scenarios
The proposed scenarios are a hypothetical sequence of events built aimed at focusing
attention towards causal processes and decision processes.
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It is relevant to consider scenarios as progressions of events and not as future images.
This will allow paying special attention to the unfolding of alternative routes and
junctions where human actions can affect the future significantly.
The anatomy of a scenario according to Schwartz (1993, 1996) and Guimarães Pereira
and Corral Quintana (2001), encompasses the following elements: a) Critical Dimensions
b) Initiative Forces, c) Strategic Invariants (pre-determined elements), d) Critical
Uncertainties and e) Discussion (logical, of scenarios) and Future Image.
Critical Dimensions collectively define the multidimensional space where the scenarios
can be constructed. They do not necessarily have to represent or contain casual
assumptions as they are defined in terms of relevance; they describe the most important
attributes of the future images. They are not selected based on their scientific importance,
but on the basis of their political value and are used to evaluate the desirability and
feasibility of the scenarios.
The following critical dimensions have been defined: a) Economy b) Society, Education
and Culture, c) Science and Technology, d) Environment and Natural Resources and e)
Governability.
Initiative Forces (IFs) represent the factors, tendencies or key processes, which may
influence the situation or decisions made, as well as those that, propel the system and co-
determine the unfolding of the future scenario. IFs can be arranged into two main
categories: Contextual forces: economic, social, environmental processes or events and
Social Actor Actions: actions and projects from the government as well as other social and
political actors. In the case of the Desertification process in the Canary Islands these
would be the following:
‒ Economy: a) Competitive economic sectors (agriculture and services), b) Public
investment (investment into R + D), c) Private sector investment and d) Improvement
of the economy.
‒ Society, Education and Culture: a) Integrated Civil Society and b) environmental
education processes.
‒ Science and Technology: a) Infrastructures and b) environmental friendly technologies.
‒ Environment and Natural Resources: a) Access to water, b) pollution processes (i.e. water,
atmosphere) and c) Sustainable agricultural production.
‒ Governance: a) Development & Land-use planning, and b) Institutional stability.
Strategic Invariants (predetermined elements) are considered evident and invariant
tendencies throughout all scenarios. If an event or a process could presently develop into
any scenario, it is a predetermined element. In the case under analysis, the demographic
tendency is considered as a strategic invariant.
Critical uncertainties are those initiative forces whose progression cannot be
anticipated, but are fundamentally known to affect a set of events, determining principal
differences between scenarios.
In the analysis of scenarios for desertification, the following critical uncertainties have
been defined: a) Economic recovery and b) Climate change.
Dealing with desertification in the Canary Islands
45
Scenarios unfold following an internal logic that links the elements into a plot or
coherent argument. The challenge is to identify a plot that (1) captures the dynamics of
the situation in the best possible way and (2) transmits the meaning of the message
effectively. The whole ensemble of initiative forces can develop in different ways,
following different plots where eventually, the different elements are combined via a
narrative that illustrates how the system evolved from a temporal moment, (generally the
present), to a future one.
In this case two scenarios have been developed aimed a demonstrating different ideas
about the Canary Islands within the next 30 years with regards to the desertification
process. On the one hand, the named ´´Desert scenario´´, which pretends to narrate a
“business as usual” evolution of the Canary Islands, and on the other hand, a positive
image represented by the scenario entitled ´´Oasis Scenario´. Both scenarios are mainly
based on the knowledge provided by the qualitative model and the simulations carried out
by the dynamic analysis. Thus, in that case the desert scenario reflects the results of the
Tendency simulation, while the Oasis Scenario corresponds to the Foster Cities
simulation.
As mentioned previously, scenarios aim at structuring different types of knowledge
(scientific and non-scientific), using narratives to facilitate planning and decision-making
processes. Scenarios would allow integrating the modelling information together with
policy and societal actions and implications providing also a temporal evolution, the
whole in the way of narratives, which are either a more easy way to structure complex
patterns and also more understandable by stakeholders and those concerned (Corral
Quintana, Funtowicz, and Guimerães Pereira 2002).
The temporal evolution of both scenarios is shown below. Figures 4 and 5 represent the
interconnections among the different dimensions as well as their evolution through time
using a non-linear representation, which is more adequate to deal with reality
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Figure 3. System Dynamics Model.
Dealing with desertification in the Canary Islands
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Figure 4. Representing the temporal interconnections of the Desert Scenario.
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Figure 5. Representing the temporal interconnections of the Oasis Scenario.
Dealing with desertification in the Canary Islands
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5. Policy recommendations
Taking into account the outcomes of this integrated approach a holistic strategy to
fight the desertification process in the Canary Islands was defined. The Canary Island
Strategy to Combat Desertification (CISCoD) was defined with the following three
objectives in mind:
‒ The reduction and/or prevention of degradation processes of the areas at risk of
desertification,
‒ Rehabilitation of partly degraded land; and
‒ Land reclamation of those having suffered desertification.
This strategy was structured in six priority areas of action, which were implemented in
policies and later in actions involving environmental, social and economic dimensions.
The first five axes refer to both sectorial policies, while the sixth is a transverse axis
emphasising the need for measures of institutional coordination, as well as in evaluating
and monitoring the strategy. The Priority Action Areas proposed by the CISCoD are:
Priority Axis 1. Land Planning and Management.
The state of the soil and biodiversity is affected directly and very importantly for the
management and techniques used in agriculture, livestock, and forest management.
While some of them generate soil degradation processes there are others that act
positively protecting. All these processes are strongly interrelated, for this reason; the
Strategy includes the "Priority Axis 1. Planning and Land Management" which contains
policies and actions aimed at guiding the development of agricultural, livestock and
forestry activities so that the processes leading to degradation of soils and biodiversity
are reversed. Agriculture, livestock and forestry
Priority Axis 2. Water Planning and Management.
A second direct factor of desertification in the Canaries is the depletion of aquifers, the
quality of existing water and its management for irrigation. The scarcity of this
resource, its overuse and misuse are in turn causes of salinization of some soils, which
combined with inadequate agricultural techniques enhance the degradation processes.
Reducing the growth of water demand, promote better use of water and produce
through alternative sources is therefore a necessary guideline to reverse this important
cause of desertification. To accomplish this, the growth of crops that reduce water
requirements for production value should be promoted, increasing the efficiency of
irrigation systems, together with enlarging the production of this resource and the use
of renewable energy.
Priority Axis 3. Infrastructure, Urban Planning and Waste Management
Transport infrastructure, waste management and urban planning are strongly
interrelated. The design of intra and intercity transport infrastructures determine the
ARETHUSE Scientific Journal of Economics and Business Management
50
structure of urban systems of the islands, and, in turn, these condition it. While waste
is generated in farming areas, most of its production and its management are
essentially urban activities. The model assessment confirms that these three factors
(transport infrastructure, waste management and urban planning) produce significant
impacts on the two direct causes of desertification mention above. The model adopted
urban development can stimulate dispersion, unnecessary occupation of land, soil
sealing and degradation. Depending on the design of infrastructures and cities, and
waste management are taken, you can increase or decrease land degradation, biomass
and biodiversity and deterioration of aquifers. So the strategy includes Priority Axis
Priority Axis 4. Tourism and Trade activities
Besides the economic activities mentioned in priority axes 1 and 2, other activities have
also effects on the environment and desertification in the Canary Islands. Among
these, it is important to note the effect generated by tourism, and trade -and services
associated with it. These activities demand water and energy and generate waste in
significant quantities, so the more rational use of these inputs and a better waste
management of them are central to the strategy. Together the respect of the fragility of
the areas in which these activities take place, particularly if they are arid and semi-arid
lands should be taken into account in order to contribute to the reduction of
desertification de Canarias.
Priority Axis 5. Awareness, Education and Training
The success of the CISCoD involves the recognition of the existence of a problem of
desertification by both social groups and the Administration. This requires the design
and implementation of awareness programs in three areas: (a) environmental
education both formal and non-formal, (b) training processes to adapt to the arid
backdrop the economic activities carried out in the Canary Islands, and (c) implement
sensitivity programs to social groups addressing the importance of the desertification
problematique in the Canaries. These programs should encourage the dissemination of
knowledge and improve governance in relation to the desertification.
Priority Axis 6. Institutional Coordination, Participation and Evaluation System
Like any strategic plan, coordinated actions of different institutions and sectors
involved is absolutely crucial, in order to make progress towards the desired scenario.
Thus is necessary coordination activities in the following phases: a) the definition of
the measures in the priority areas and their timing; b) the implementation; c) the
evaluation of the results of its implementation; and d) adjusting the plan. Therefore, it
is considered necessary that the Government of the Canary Islands designate an
instance of the administration that is responsible for coordinating the implementation
of the actions that make up the Priority Axes of this Strategy, and fundamentally
develop these four actions involving axis 6.
Dealing with desertification in the Canary Islands
51
6. Conclusions
Today’s natural resources governance, with multiple criteria and functions, and often
with multiple stakeholders with conflicting interests, calls for more flexible and versatile
decision support than can be gained using ‘‘traditional’’ simulation and optimisation tools
alone. Generally, in decision-making processes, decision- makers rank a set of decision
alternatives and choose the best according to their preferences. According to Kangas and
Kangas (2005) however, this is not the best way of approaching complex decision
problematiques.
The approach proposed in this paper was structured as follows: the first step was the
detection of the key variables that affect the problem(s), the desertification in this case,
and the relationships between them; that is to say, the building of the qualitative model.
The inputs to proceed were the following: researches made in the related field; interviews
to specialists and social actors; c) results of the application of methods (as Delphi) to
determine the probability of certain events or the importance of variables; and brain
storming with the participation of the political leaders and the specialists that participate
in the decision processes.
This step gives a first knowledge of the variables that have to be taken into account to
design the System Dynamics Model and the scenarios and of which variables are
important to design the policies: the leading and interacting ones. In the case of the
desertification, this result means that the set of policies to be implemented has to address
the following:
a) To reduce the rate of increase of the Rural Practices that Degrade the Environment and
their negative indirect effects; also, to reduce the negative effects of the population3;
and, as well, to stimulate the increase of the Rural Practices that Protect the
Environment and its positive indirect impacts over the desertification -working over
the leading variables.
b) Similarly, in respect to the population, the policies have to reduce the negative effects
of the Tourism, which is an interactive variable because the desertification process
influences it.
c) To foster favourable loops to stop o to revert the desertification and to slow down the
ones that impulse it -centred in the interacting variables, Desert, Tourism and
Construction and Road Network.
The next step was to build the System Dynamics Model. Firstly, it provided an
additional point of view to understand the structure of the system that produces the
problem o vector of problems (the desertification in this example) and to refine the
previous conclusions:
3 Whose rate of increase is not ease to control.
ARETHUSE Scientific Journal of Economics and Business Management
52
d) To produce the changes commented in a), the System Dynamics Model reveals that the
policies have to reduce the waste discharges of the Rural Practices that Degrades the
Environment and their negative impacts over the Wind Erosivity, the Rainfall
Erosivity, the Soil Erodibility and, the Degradation of the Biomass and the Biodiversity.
Additionally, to improve the favourable effects of the Rural Practices that Protect the
Environment over the last four variables. The policies might also reduce the effect of
the increase of the population over the Aquifers, the Waste Discharges and the
Construction and Road Network.
e) To achieve the desired effect mentioned in b) precedent it will be necessary to reduce
the effect of the Tourism over the increase of the Waste Discharges and of the
Construction and Road Network, and
f) To reinforce the positive feed back loops.
Next, two simulations regarding the behaviour of the system, were run using
alternative vectors of values of its constants. Each of them was associated to a scenario.
g) The previous results highlight the variables (including the constant) whose behaviour
has to be changed through out the policies to control the desertification processes. In
addition to them, this new step gives a holistic vision and allows detecting the possibly
future scenarios of the system that will be the results of the different set of values of
these constants. In turn, each set will be the result the changes of the behaviour of the
system produced by the implementation of the policies.
The last step, which complements the previous one, was to build the path and
interactions of the variables that lead to the scenarios.
h) This step gives another perspective to detect the forces that ought to be fostered and
slow down to move the social system in the desired direction. It emphasises the links of
variables allowing the decision-maker (or those involved in the process) to have an
additional holistic view of the issue at hand and its patterns.
As a result of this integrated approach The Canary Island Strategy to Combat
Desertification (CISCoD) was defined. This strategy is currently under implementation by
the Regional Government. This strategy was aimed at aiding regional and local authorities
to take decisions under uncertainty for complex systems -also in cases such the one here
discussed in which quantitative data either are not available or are of low quality.
Policy issues cannot be analysed in isolation from the social context in which they
occur (Corral Quintana 2009). They are bound by different perceptions, perspectives,
opinions, knowledges, and interests. As Lindblom (1991) argues, ‘there is a deep and
persistent unwillingness in Western culture to acknowledge the difficulties arising from
the world’s complexity and human’s modest cognitive abilities...and unless political action
is adjusted to take into account of the fact that complex problems cannot be understood
fully, policy-making will fare much worse than it needs to’.
Dealing with desertification in the Canary Islands
53
Thus, emerging, more accountable and inclusive governance styles reject the concept of
a single, omnipotent decision maker and replace it with a deliberative process involving
extended debate regarding specific policy issues. Moreover, there has also been a
progressive recognition that it is not just at the level of decision that appropriate
consultation, dialogue and deliberation take place among those concerned with certain
governance issues (Corral Quintana, Funtowicz, and Guimerães Pereira 2002).
Acknowledgements
This study has been funded by the Canary Island Goverment within the framework of
the Project “Plan estratégico de lucha contra la desertificación en Canarias. Propuesta de
medidas prioritarias.
Glossary
DSS = Decision Support Systems
FC&PRS = Foster Cities & Protected Rural Spaces Scenario
QM = Qualitative Model
RPDE = Rural Practices that Degrade the Environment
RPPE = Rural Practices that Protect the Environment
SD = Strategic Decision(s)
SDM = System Dynamics Model
TendS = Tendency Scenario
TIDDD = Tools to Informs Debates, Dialogues and Deliberations
PRS = Protected Rural Spaces
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