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Adaptation, Adaptation Science, and the Status of Adaptation in Mountain Regions
Abstract
This chapter introduces the conceptual foundations of, and core themes within, the climate change adaptation scholarship; outlines common approaches to adaptation science; presents key critiques of how adaptation is conceptualized and examined; and discusses the status of adaptation in upstream-downstream environments. The chapter draws out linkages between adaptation scholarship and mountain-specific socio-economic and environmental conditions. It also addressed an important gap in the broader adaptation scholarship, where there have been few studies characterizing and examining adaptation in mountain regions. Topics covered clarify key conceptual and analytical aspects of climate change adaptation and strengthen rationale for efforts to increase understanding of adaptation in upstream-downstream systems. The chapter also facilitates more informed engagement with subsequent chapters in Climate Change Adaptation Strategies – An Upstream-downstream Perspective.
... There is also an emerging focus on the unintended consequences of adaptation, including how human adaptations impact ecosystems and the supply of ecosystem services that ultimately underpin human well-being [40,41]. For more, McDowell, et al. [42] provide a mountain-focused summary of core themes in the climate change adaptation scholarship. ...
Climate-related changes in glacier influenced hydrological systems are widely documented, stimulating adaptive responses among the 370 million people living in glacier influenced watersheds as well as aquatic and riparian ecosystems. The situation denotes important interdependencies between science, society, and ecosystems, yet integrative approaches to the study of adaptation remain scarce in both the mountain- and non-mountain focused adaptation scholarship. Using the example of glacio-hydrological change, it is argued here that this analytical limitation may impede the development, implementation, and achievement of ‘successful’ adaptations. In response, this talk introduces three general principles for robust adaptation research in high mountains. Principle 1: Adaptation research should integrate detailed analyses of watershed-specific glaciological and hydro-meteorological conditions; glacio-hydrological changes are context specific and therefore cannot be assumed to follow idealized trajectories of ‘peak water’. Principle 2: Adaptation research should consider the complex interplay between glacio-hydrological changes and existing socio-economic, cultural, and political conditions; responses to environmental changes are non-deterministic and therefore not deducible from hydrological models alone. Principle 3: Adaptation research should be attentive to interdependencies and tradeoffs between human and ecological responses to glacio-hydrological change; research that does not evaluate these socio-ecological dynamics may lead to mal-adaptive adaptation plans. These principles call attention to the linked scientific, social, and ecological dimensions of adaptation, and offer a point of departure for future adaptation research in high mountains.
... There is also an emerging focus on the unintended consequences of adaptation, including how human adaptations impact ecosystems and the supply of ecosystem services that ultimately underpin human well-being [40,41]. For more, McDowell, et al. [42] provide a mountain-focused summary of core themes in the climate change adaptation scholarship. ...
Mountain glaciers are well known for their role in regulating freshwater flows, a function crucial for the 370 million people living in glacial meltwater-influenced watersheds as well as the aquatic and riparian ecosystems shaped by meltwater streams. The ‘peak water’ hypothesis suggests that a warming climate will increase glacial melt runoff until a discharge peak is reached; discharge will then decrease to levels less than pre-warming values as glaciers shrink. This idealized pattern of glacio-hydrological change is beginning to inform adaptation planning across many glaciated mountain ranges. However, i) the physical basis of this theory may not be relevant in certain contexts, ii) a purely physical/hydrological basis for adaptation planning is likely to be insufficient, and iii) a predominant focus on human drinking water and hydropower needs may lead to adaptation plans that do not adequately address the vulnerability of aquatic and riparian ecosystems to glacial change. For these reasons, we propose three general principles aimed at informing successful adaptation to glacio-hydrological change in glaciated watersheds. These principles are based on a synthesis of the literature on human dimensions of climate change and socio-ecological systems. Principle 1: Physically-based glacio-hydrological insights are essential for anticipatory adaptation planning, but the validity of peak water as a basis for adaptation initiatives should not be assumed; it must be based on the analysis of watershed-specific glaciological and hydro-meteorological conditions. Principle 2: Adaptation planning for glacio-hydrological change should consider the complex interplay between environmental change and existing socio-economic, cultural, and political conditions; relationships between people and the environment are non-linear, non-deterministic, and therefore not deducible from hydrological models alone. Principle 3: To avoid mal-adaptation, responses to glacio-hydrological change must be attentive to tradeoffs and complementarities between human and ecological water needs; here, a socio-ecological systems approach provides a well-established framework for research and adaptation planning.
... There is also an emerging focus on the unintended consequences of adaptation, including how human adaptations impact ecosystems and the supply of ecosystem services that ultimately underpin human well-being [40,41]. For more, McDowell, et al. [42] provide a mountain-focused summary of core themes in the climate change adaptation scholarship. ...
Climate-related changes in glacierized watersheds are widely documented, stimulating adaptive responses among the 370 million people living in glacier-influenced watersheds as well as aquatic and riparian ecosystems. The situation denotes important interdependencies between science, society, and ecosystems, yet integrative approaches to the study of adaptation to such changes remain scarce in both the mountain- and non-mountain-focused adaptation scholarship. Using the example of glacio-hydrological change, it is argued here that this analytical limitation impedes the identification, development, and implementation of “successful” adaptations. In response, the paper introduces three guiding principles for robust adaptation research in glaciated mountain regions. Principle 1: Adaptation research should integrate detailed analyses of watershed-specific glaciological and hydro-meteorological conditions; glacio-hydrological changes are context-specific and therefore cannot be assumed to follow idealized trajectories of “peak water”. Principle 2: Adaptation research should consider the complex interplay between glacio-hydrological changes and socio-economic, cultural, and political conditions; responses to environmental changes are non-deterministic and therefore not deducible from hydrological changes alone. Principle 3: Adaptation research should be attentive to interdependencies, feedbacks, and tradeoffs between human and ecological responses to glacio-hydrological change; research that does not evaluate these socio-ecological dynamics may lead to maladaptive adaptation plans. These principles call attention to the linked scientific, social, and ecological dimensions of adaptation, and offer a point of departure for future climate change adaptation research in high mountains.
... Por otra parte, la adaptación planificada involucra, con mayor regularidad, a agentes gubernamentales, los cuales guían procesos hacia la formulación de políticas y estrategias enfocadas en la adaptación de un determinado sistema, sector o región. Planes de mediano y largo plazo acompañados de inversiones para alcanzar objetivos claros con la convergencia de diferentes actores civiles, estatales y privados son ejemplos comunes de medidas de adaptación planificada como lo destacan McDowell, Stephenson, & Ford (2016). Las líneas que dividen la adaptación autónoma de la planificada y otras delimitaciones conceptuales para el tema son un tanto difusas, pues pueden darse casos de sinergias o esfuerzos paralelos entre actores y acciones. ...
La adaptación autónoma se refiere a las medidas tomadas por una población específica, como una respuesta autogestionada a un estímulo climático adverso. La ausencia de ayudas gubernamentales o inversiones de gran magnitud determinan el carácter de escala local de las iniciativas. Este tipo de adaptación se basa frecuentemente en el conocimiento tradicional y la observación del clima. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar cómo la convivencia continua con elementos de riesgo ante eventos hidrometeorológicos extremos estimuló la adopción de medidas para la adaptación y aumento de la resiliencia en una comunidad indígena dedicada a la agricultura, en la cuenca del río Sixaola, Costa Rica. Se utilizó una metodología cualitativa etnográfica que parte de la búsqueda de registros en bases de datos y otras fuentes secundarias para desarrollar observaciones participantes, dos grupos focales de discusión y un taller. Se encontró que las mujeres productoras de cacao con las que se trabajó y sus familias tomaron medidas como la diversificación de cultivos, asociatividad, traslado de fincas a zonas de menor riesgo y organización comunitaria, medidas que fueron tomadas por las poblaciones sin apoyo gubernamental. Esta experiencia aporta insumos y lecciones aprendidas relevantes en la discusión actual sobre la necesidad de adaptar y mejorar la resiliencia de sistemas productivos en territorios rurales.
The Himalaya is experiencing rapid climate change that is likely to significantly impact local ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture and human well-being. However, the scientific community has been slow to examine the extent and consequences of climate change. Local communities have been coping with environmental change since millennia. Thus they often have considerable knowledge about environmental change and means to cope with its consequences. We (a) examined the perceptions of local communities about climate change and its impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture and livelihoods in the Kangchenjunga Himalayas region; (b) analysed the consistency of perceptions across geographical regions, and (c) assessed the conformity between local perceptions and scientific evidence. Our study is based on surveys conducted in 576 households, focus group discussions, key informant surveys and direct observations. The results show that people in the Kangchenjunga Himalayas region have considerable knowledge of climate change and its effects on the weather, ecosystems, biodiyersity and agriculture. These perceptions are consistent across the region and conform to scientific findings.
Rivers are the cultural, social and economic backbone of South Asia, and therefore, the focus of public, political and scientific debate. Himalayan glaciers are the source of numerous large Asian river systems, which support rich ecosystems and irrigate millions of hectares of fields, thereby supporting about a billion people who live in their catchments. Impacts of climate change in river systems are likely to have considerable social, economic, ecological and political implications. This paper reviews literature for three major glacier-fed river systems of South Asia—Brahmaputra, Ganga and Indus—to understand governance mechanisms for climate adaptation in the region. A systematic review methodology is applied to examine adaptation responses in the riparian countries of these Himalayan river basins in three different levels—policy objectives, institutions and practice. Using the “fit for purpose” governance framework, we try to examine how far or near is the region for operationalizing principles of adaptive governance.
Adaptation is a key component of climate policy, yet we have limited and fragmented understanding of if and how adaptation is currently taking place. In this paper, we document and characterize the current status of adaptation in 47 vulnerable ‘hotspot’ nations in Asia and Africa, based on a systematic review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature, as well as policy documents, to extract evidence of adaptation initiatives. In total, 100 peer-reviewed articles, 161 grey literature documents, and 27 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communications were reviewed, constituting 760 adaptation initiatives. Results indicate a significant increase in reported adaptations since 2006. Adaptations are primarily being reported from African and low-income countries, particularly those nations receiving adaptation funds, involve a combination of groundwork and more concrete adaptations to reduce vulnerability, and are primarily being driven by national governments, NGOs, and international institutions, with minimal involvement of lower levels of government or collaboration across nations. Gaps in our knowledge of adaptation policy and practice are particularly notable in North Africa and Central Asia, and there is limited evidence of adaptation initiatives being targeted at vulnerable populations including socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, children, indigenous peoples, and the elderly.
Despite the growing number of studies and research projects on climate change adaptation, only a few have examined the gender and cultural dynamics of the adaptation process. Inequality has been identified as a major indicator of the vulnerability of individuals and groups; nevertheless, the gender and cultural aspects of inequality have not received much emphasis. The present article attempts to analyze the influence of gender and cultural relations on the process of climate change adaptation by presenting a study of Dalit and Lama households in the mountainous Humla District of Nepal. The inhabitants of Humla have been experiencing a shift in the monsoon season, a decrease in snowfall, and longer dry periods, with adverse effects on their livelihoods. The main focus of this article is to highlight the cultural, social, and economic dependency of the Lama and Dalit ethnic groups and to examine whether processes of adaptation exacerbate or alter gender inequalities and intercaste dependencies.
Recent controversy has led to calls for increased standardization and transparency in the methods used to synthesize climate change research. Though these debates have focused largely on the biophysical dimensions of climate change, human dimensions research is equally in need of improved methodological approaches for research synthesis. Systematic review approaches, and more recently realist review methods, have been used within the health sciences for decades to guide research synthesis. Despite this, penetration of these approaches into the social and environmental sciences has been limited. Here, we present an analysis of approaches for systematic review and research synthesis and examine their applicability in an adaptation context. Customized review frameworks informed by systematic approaches to research synthesis provide a conceptually appropriate and practical opportunity for increasing methodological transparency and rigor in synthesizing and tracking adaptation research. This review highlights innovative applications of systematic approaches, with a focus on the unique challenges of integrating multiple data sources and formats in reviewing climate change adaptation policy and practice. We present guidelines, key considerations, and recommendations for systematic review in the social sciences in general and adaptation research in particular. We conclude by calling for increased conceptual and methodological development of systematic review approaches to address the methodological challenges of synthesizing and tracking adaptation to climate change.
Projections of future water shortages in the world's glaciated mountain ranges have grown increasingly dire. Although water modeling research has begun to examine changing environmental parameters, the inclusion of social scenarios has been very limited. Yet human water use and demand are vital for long-term adaptation, risk reduction, and resource allocation. Concerns about future water supplies are particularly pronounced on Peru's arid Pacific slope, where upstream glacier recession has been accompanied by rapid and water-intensive economic development. Models predict water shortages decades into the future, but conflicts have already arisen in Peru's Santa River watershed due to either real or perceived shortages. Modeled thresholds do not align well with historical realities and therefore suggest that a broader analysis of the combined natural and social drivers of change is needed to more effectively understand the hydrologic transformation taking place across the watershed. This article situates these new geographies of water and climate change in Peru within current global change research discussions to demonstrate how future coupled research models can inform broader scale questions of hydrologic change and water security across watersheds and regions. We provide a coupled historical analysis of glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, declining Santa River discharge, and alpine wetland contraction. We also examine various water withdrawal mechanisms, including smallholder agriculture, mining, potable water use, hydroelectric power generation, and coastal irrigation. We argue that both ecological change and societal forces will play vital roles in shaping the future of water resources and water governance in the region.
Adaptation readiness is proposed as a complimentary concept to adaptive capacity that captures the strength and existence of governance structures and policy processes which determine whether adaptation takes place. As such, adaptation readiness is concerned with examining actual experiences with planning for adaptation and seeks to characterize whether human systems are prepared and ready to ‘do adaptation.’ We propose a framework for evaluating readiness, identifying 6 overarching factors essential for adaptation taking place: political leadership, institutional organization, adaptation decision making and stakeholder engagement, availability of usable science, funding for adaptation, and public support for adaptation. For each readiness factor we identify potential indicators, data sources, and considerations for analysis, outlining approaches for quantitative scoring and qualitative examination. We briefly illustrate application of the framework using an example from the territory of Nunavut in the Canadian Arctic, a region projected to experience some of the most dramatic changes in climate globally this century. The framework provides a systematic approach for assessing adaptation readiness, and can be used – in combination with other approaches – to inform the identification and prioritization of adaptation support, guide resources to areas where need is greatest, and serve as a proxy for adaptation tracking.
Adaptation to climate variability and change is important both for impact assessment (to estimate adaptations which are likely to occur) and for policy development (to advise on or prescribe adaptations). This paper proposes an "anatomy of adaptation" to systematically specify and differentiate adaptations, based upon three questions: (i) adapt to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? Climatic stimuli include changes in long-term mean conditions and variability about means, both current and future, and including extremes. Adaptation depends fundamentally on the characteristics of the system of interest, including its sensitivities and vulnerabilities. The nature of adaptation processes and forms can be distinguished by numerous attributes including timing, purposefulness, and effect. The paper notes the contribution of conceptual and numerical models and empirical studies to the understanding of adaptation, and outlines approaches to the normative evaluation of adaptation measures and strategies.
A social-ecological system (SES) framework increasingly underpins the 'resilience paradigm.' As with all models, the SES comes with particular biases. We explore these key biases. We critically examine how the SES resilience literature has attempted to define and analyze the social arena. We argue that much SES literature defines people's interests and livelihoods as concerned primarily with the environment, and thereby underplays the role of other motivations and social institutions. We also highlight the SES resilience literature's focus on institutions and organized social units, which misses key aspects of social diversity and power. Our key premise is the importance of inter- and multi-disciplinary perspectives. To illustrate this, we draw attention to the critique of earlier ecological anthropology that remains relevant for current conceptualizations of SESs, focusing on the concepts of social diversity and power. And we discuss insights from social anthropology and political ecology that have responded to this critique to develop different ways of incorporating social diversity and power into human-environment relations. Finally, we discuss how these social science perspectives can help improve the understanding of the 'social' in SES resilience research.
The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts.
This study focuses on the characters of public perceptions on climate and cryosphere change, which are based on a questionnaire survey in thë Urümqi River Basin. In comparison with scientific observation results of climate and cryosphere change, this paper analyzes the possible impact of the change on water resources and agriculture production in the area. Perceptions of most respondents on climate and cryosphere changes confirm the main objective facts. For the selection of adaptation measures addressing the shortage of water resource, the results are as follows: most people preferred to choose the measures like "policy change" and "basic facility construction" which are mostly implemented by the government and the policy-making department; some people showed more preference to the measures of avoiding unfavorable natural environment, such as finding job in or migrating to other places. The urgency of personal participa-tion in the adaptation measures is still inadequate. Some adaptation measures should be implemented in line with local conditions and require the organic combination of "resource-development" with "water-saving".
The concept of barriers is increasingly used to describe the obstacles that hinder the planning and implementation of climate change adaptation. The growing literature on barriers to adaptation reveals not only commonly reported barriers, but also conflicting evidence, and few explanations of why barriers exist and change. There is thus a need for research that focuses on the interdependencies between barriers and considers the dynamic ways in which barriers develop and persist. Such research, which would be actor-centred and comparative, would help to explain barriers to adaptation and provide insights into how to overcome them.
An assessment of policy options for future global climate governance, written by a team of leading experts from the European Union and developing countries. Global climate governance is at a crossroads. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol was merely a first step, and its core commitments expire in 2012. This book addresses three questions which will be central to any new climate agreement. What is the most effective overall legal and institutional architecture for successful and equitable climate politics? What role should non-state actors play, including multinational corporations, non-governmental organizations, public–private partnerships and market mechanisms in general? How can we deal with the growing challenge of adapting our existing institutions to a substantially warmer world? This important resource offers policy practitioners in-depth qualitative and quantitative assessments of the costs and benefits of various policy options, and also offers academics from wide-ranging disciplines insight into innovative interdisciplinary approaches towards international climate negotiations.
Adaptation to climate change has gained a prominent place next to mitigation on global, national, and local policy agendas. However, while an abundance of adaptation strategies, plans, and programmes have been developed, progress in turning these into action has been slow. The development of a sound knowledge basis to support adaptation globally is suggested to accelerate progress, but has lagged behind. The emphasis in both current and newly proposed programmes is very much on practice-oriented research with strong stakeholder participation. This paper supports such practice-oriented research, but argues that this is insufficient to support adaptation policy and practice in a productive manner. We argue that there is not only a need for science for adaptation, but also a science of adaptation. The paper argues that participatory, practice-oriented research is indeed essential, but has to be complemented by and connected to more fundamental inquiry and concept development, which takes into account knowledge that has been developed in disciplinary sciences and on issues other than climate change adaptation. At the same time, the level and method of participation in science for adaptation should be determined on the basis of the specific project context and goals. More emphasis on science of adaptation can lead to improved understanding of the conditions for successful science for adaptation.
Because of the failure of the world to agree an adequate regime to limit greenhouse gas emissions to a safe level, adaptation to climate change has risen rapidly in UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations since 2007. We closely review the development of policies, institutions, and financing of adaptation in international agreements from 1992 to the present. We conclude that the way the treaty has been built—first as a mitigation regime with adaptation added on only later—has led to some profound problems for marrying the goals of economic development and building climate resilient societies. Particularly there are two problematic areas. First, following mitigation approaches, technical solutions are often the focus in adaptation projects, when social, political, and cultural problems lie at the roots of vulnerability and should be addressed directly. Second, early requirements that external funding would only come if the adaptation effort was clearly ‘additional’ to what would have been done without a changing climate have been extremely pernicious. By attempting to divide a development project from the ‘additional’ costs of adapting to climate change, the global policy has shaped adaptation efforts at the local level. To understand how we ended up with such quirky definitions of what counts as adaptation, we need to review the history of adaptation in the negotiated regimes. Finally, we trace the incomplete negotiations over who will pay for adaptation in developing countries, whether that funding will come as grants or loans, as private investment or public funds, and what say recipient countries will have. WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:171–189. doi: 10.1002/wcc.212 The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.
Community-based adaptation (CBA) is a form of adaptation that aims to reduce the risks of climate change to the world's poorest people by involving them in the practices and planning of adaptation. It adds to current approaches to adaptation by emphasizing the social, political, and economic drivers of vulnerability, and by highlighting the needs of vulnerable people. Critics, however, ask how lessons from local adaptive responses can be ‘upscaled’ to wider spatial scales and risks; whether CBA can represent local people fairly; and if successful CBA can be assessed. This article summarizes these debates, and uses these questions to present a framework for advancing CBA more fully within formal policy processes. The article argues that CBA should not be seen as an overly localist approach to risk assessment, but instead forms part of a trend of linking international development and climate change policies. This trend seeks to explain the risks posed by climate change more holistically within development contexts, and aims to increase the range and usefulness of adaptation options. WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:439–446. doi: 10.1002/wcc.231 Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.
This article advances a vulnerability framework to understand how climatic risks and change are experienced and responded to by Inuit harvesters using a case study from Iqaluit, Nunavut. The article makes important contributions to methodological design in vulnerability studies, emphasizing the importance of longitudinal study design, real-time observations of human–environment interactions, community-based monitoring, and mixed methods. Fieldwork spanned five years, during which sixty-four semistructured interviews were conducted and historical records examined to develop an understanding of the processes and conditions affecting vulnerability. A local land use monitoring team was established, collecting ∼22,000 km of land use Global Positioning System (GPS) data and engaging in biweekly interviews (more than 100) on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This was complemented by analysis of instrumental data on sea ice and climate conditions. Results indicate that sea ice conditions are changing rapidly and affecting trail conditions, safety, and access to harvesting grounds. GPS data and biweekly interviews document real-time adaptations, with traditional knowledge and land-based skills, resource use flexibility, and mobility underpinning significant adaptability, including utilizing new areas, modifying trail routes, and taking advantage of an extended open water season. Sociospatial reorganization following resettlement in the 1950s and 1960s, however, has created dependency on external conditions, has reduced the flexibility of harvesting activities, and has affected knowledge systems. Within the context of these “slow” variables, current responses that are effective in moderating vulnerability could undermine adaptive capacity in the long term, representing overspecialized adaptations, creating the potential for further loss of response diversity and flexibility, and engendering potential downstream effects, creating trajectories of maladaptation. These findings challenge previous research that has argued that current resilience of the Inuit socioecological system is indicative of high adaptive capacity to future change and indicates that climate change might pose more serious risks to the harvesting sector than previously assumed.
The long-term character of climate change and the high costs of adaptation measures, in combination with their uncertain effects, turn climate adaptation governance into a torturous process. We systematically review the literature on climate adaptation governance to analyze the scholarly understanding of these complexities. Building on governance literature about long-term and complex policy problems, we develop a conceptual matrix based on the dimensions knowledge and power to systematically study the peer-reviewed literature on climate adaptation governance. We find that about a quarter of the reviewed
journal articles do not address the knowledge or power dimension of the governance of climate change adaptation, about half of the articles discuss either the knowledge or the power dimension, and another quarter discuss both knowledge and power. The articles that do address both knowledge and power (1) conceptualize the governance of climate adaptation mainly as a complex system of regulatory frameworks and technical knowledge, (2) assume that regulatory systems can be easily adapted to new knowledge, (3) pay little attention to fluid or unorganized forms of power, e.g., negotiation, and knowledge, e.g., learning,
and (4) largely neglect the interplay between the two. We argue that more research on this interplay is needed, and we discuss how puzzling and powering are a promising pair of concepts to study this.
Adapting to climate change is among the biggest challenges humanity
faces in the next century. An overwhelming focus of adaptation
strategies to reduce climate change-related hazards has been on
hard-engineering structures such as sea walls, irrigation infrastructure
and dams. Closer attention to a broader spectrum of adaptation options
is urgently needed. In particular, ecosystem-based adaptation approaches
provide flexible, cost-effective and broadly applicable alternatives for
buffering the impacts of climate change, while overcoming many drawbacks
of hard infrastructure. As such, they are a critical tool at adaptation
planners' disposal for tackling the threats that climate change poses to
peoples' lives and livelihoods.
The last decade has seen a rapid proliferation of climate change adaptation research resulting in a broad theoretical and conceptual understanding of adaptation. However, significant gaps still exist in applying these theoretical frameworks and tools in policy and practice. There is also little agreement on which methods and frameworks are truly robust, while many developing countries lack access to key literature and data. Several issues are especially relevant for early career researchers and practitioners. These include working in an area of science that crosses disciplinary boundaries, improving the quality of and capacity to undertake adaptation research, and equity and ethics. We elaborate on these themes based on our experiences as early career adaptation researchers working in developed and developing countries. We also identify several support mechanisms required to enable early career researchers to advance their engagement with the climate change adaptation agenda.
Resilience thinking addresses the dynamics and development of complex social–ecological systems (SES). Three aspects are central: resilience, adaptability and transformability. These aspects interrelate across multiple scales. Resilience in this context is the capacity of a SES to continually change and adapt yet remain within critical thresholds. Adaptability is part of resilience. It represents the capacity to adjust responses to changing external drivers and internal processes and thereby allow for development along the current trajectory (stability domain). Transformability is the capacity to cross thresholds into new development trajectories. Transformational change at smaller scales enables resilience at larger scales. The capacity to transform at smaller scales draws on resilience from multiple scales, making use of crises as windows of opportunity for novelty and innovation, and recombining sources of experience and knowledge to navigate social–ecological transitions. Society must seriously consider ways to foster resilience of smaller more manageable SESs that contribute to Earth System resilience and to explore options for deliberate transformation of SESs that threaten Earth System resilience.
This paper applies a systematic approach to measuring adaptation actions being undertaken by 117 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with the goal of establishing a baseline of global trends in adaptation. Data are systematically collected from National Communications prepared by Parties to the Convention and submitted periodically to the Secretariat. 4,104 discrete adaptation initiatives are identified and analyzed. Our findings indicate that while progress is being made on conducting impact and vulnerability assessments and adaptation research in nearly every country in the sample, translation of this knowledge into tangible adaptation initiatives is still limited. The largest number of reported adaptations falls under the category of infrastructure, technology, and innovation. Some types of vulnerability were more frequently reported across initiatives, including floods, drought, food and water safety and security, rainfall, infectious disease, and terrestrial ecosystem health. Notably, reporting on the inclusion of vulnerable sub-populations is low across all actions. Diffusion of adaptation across sectors remains underdeveloped, with the environment, water, and agricultural sectors emerging as the most active adaptors. Our analysis indicates that national communications provide a valuable source of information for global-scale adaptation tracking, but important gaps exist in the consistency of reporting that should be addressed, as these documents could greatly enhance efforts to monitor and evaluate adaptation progress.
Considerable barriers can emerge in developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies. Understanding the nature of barriers to adaptation is important so as to find strategic ways of dealing with them. However, our current understanding is limited and highly fragmented across the academic community. This paper aims to bring some conceptual convergence in these debates by applying a systematic review method to assess the current state of knowledge on barriers to adaptation in the peer-reviewed literature. The review results show that: (1) Barriers to adaptation have hardly been defined in the literature and no clear indicators exist so as to identify and assess them systematically. (2) An impressive number of barriers have been reported, but the list of possible barriers is seemingly endless. (3) The most frequently reported barriers relate to the institutional and social dimensions of adaptation. (4) Barriers are identified as configurations of climate and non-climate factors and conditions that emerge from the actor, the governance system, or the system of concern. (5) Barriers are mainly studied in developed countries with a strong focus on water-related domains. (6) The majority of studies on barriers use small-n inductive case approaches while comparative studies across different contexts are limited. (7) Although interventions to overcome barriers are recommended by most studies, empirical studies on interventions are scarce. We present further conceptual clarification and a more precise definition of barriers to adaptation. We conclude that future research should go beyond asking the questions ‘if’ and ‘which’ barriers to adaptation exist and begin asking ‘how’ and ‘why’ barriers emerge.
This paper outlines what is meant by "adaptation" to climate change, and how it might be addressed in the IPCC Assessments. Two roles of adaptation in the climate change field are identified: adaptation as part of impact assessment (where the key question is: what adaptations are likely?), and adaptation as part of the policy response (where the central question is: what adaptations are recommended?). The concept of adaptation has been adopted in several fields including climate impact assessment and policy development, risk management, and natural hazards research. A framework for systematically defining adaptations is based on three questions: (i) adaptation to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? The paper demonstrates that, for adaptation purposes, climate extremes and variability are integral parts of climate change, along with shifts in mean conditions. Attributes for differentiating adaptations include purposefulness, timing, temporal and spatial scope, effects, form and performance. The framework provides a guide for the treatment of adaptation in the IPCC assessments, both in the assessment of impacts and in the evaluation of adaptive policy options.
In climate change discourse and policy, adaptation has become a critical byword and frame of reference. An implicit assumption in much of the strategizing is the notion that adaptation can be rationally planned, funded, and governed largely through existing frameworks. But can adaptation
really be managed or engineered, especially given the significant unpredictability and severe impacts that are forecast in a range of climate scenarios? Over millennia, successful societies have adapted to climate shifts, but evidence suggests that this was often accomplished only through
wide-ranging reorganization or the institution of new measures in the face of extreme environmental stress. This essay critically examines the concept of human adaptation by dividing it into eight fundamental processes and viewing each in a broad cultural, ecological, and evolutionary context.
We focus our assessment especially on northern indigenous peoples, who exist at the edges of present-day climate governance frameworks but at the center of increasingly acute climate stress.
The winter tourism industry is facing considerable challenges with climate change; it is increasingly responding with investments in snowmaking facilities. We present a study on 3 tourism destinations in the Swiss Alps that addressed resource consumption of snowmaking, snow reliability, and future snowmaking potential in a warmer climate. The energy consumption of snowmaking in the ski resorts was in the lower range of what could be expected from literature values. It comprised 0.5% of the respective municipality's energy consumption and was moderate compared with other tourism-related activities. Water consumption, however, was in the higher range with regard to what was expected from literature values and was also high compared with other water uses (eg 36% compared with drinking water consumption in one community). Natural snow cover was partly critical for winter sports at low elevations at 1200 masl, but uncritical at higher elevations above 2000 masl. Snow cover will become even more critical in a warmer climate but will probably still be sufficient above 2000 masl until 2050. Snowmaking may become critical at lower elevations in the early months of the season (November and December) due to warmer temperatures that can be expected in the coming decades. But, at higher elevations, the potential for snowmaking will probably remain sufficient. Our study provides straightforward and feasible approaches to assess resource consumption and snow cover. Careful consideration of resource consumption and snow cover can foster technical and economical advances as well as more sustainable development in mountains regions. Snow production can represent a valuable adaptation strategy at high-altitude destinations. However, given the increasing economic competition and the changing climate, it will be crucial to use specific regional strengths to provide high-quality winter and summer tourism activities.
Adapting to the health effects of climate change is one of the key challenges facing public health this century. Our knowledge of progress on adaptation, however, remains in its infancy. Using the Fifth National Communications of Annex I parties to the UNFCCC, 1912 initiatives are systematically identified and analyzed. 80% of the actions identified consist of groundwork (i.e. preparatory) action, with only 20% constituting tangible adaptations. No health vulnerability was recognized by all 38 Annex I countries. Furthermore, while all initiatives affect at least one health vulnerability, only 15% had an explicit human health component. Consideration for the special needs of vulnerable groups is uneven and underdeveloped. Climate change is directly motivating 71% of groundwork actions, and 61% of adaptation initiatives are being mainstreamed into existing institutions or programs. We conclude that the adaptation responses to the health risks of climate change remain piecemeal. Policymakers in the health sector must engage with stakeholders to implement adaptation that considers how climate change will impact the health of each segment of the population, particularly within those groups already considered most vulnerable to poor health outcomes.
This paper reviews the concept of adaptive capacity and various approaches to assessing it, particularly with respect to climate variability and change. I find that adaptive capacity is a relatively under-researched topic within the sustainability science and global change communities, particularly since it is uniquely positioned to improve linkages between vulnerability and resilience research. I identify opportunities for advancing the measurement and characterization of adaptive capacity by combining insights from both vulnerability and resilience frameworks, and I suggest several assessment approaches for possible future development that draw from both frameworks and focus on analyzing the governance, institutions, and management that have helped foster adaptive capacity in light of recent climatic events.Research highlights► Adaptive capacity is a central, but often overlooked concept within both vulnerability and resilience frameworks. ► Assessments of adaptive capacity that draw from the benefits of both vulnerability and resilience research can serve to advance theory and application within the field of sustainability science. ► Assessments can be improved by examining governance, institutions, and management preparations for and responses to recent climatic events. ► Additional novel approaches need to be considered for measuring and characterizing adaptive capacity.
Adaptive management is a growing trend within environment and natural resource management efforts in the United States. While many proponents of adaptive management emphasize the need for collaborative, iterative governance processes to facilitate adaptive management, legal scholars note that current legal requirements and processes in the United States often make it difficult to provide the necessary institutional support and flexibility for successful adaptive management implementation. Our research explores this potential disconnect between adaptive management theory and practice by interviewing practitioners in the field. We conducted a survey of individuals associated with the Collaborative Adaptive Management Network (CAMNet), a nongovernmental organization that promotes adaptive management and facilitates in its implementation. The survey was sent via email to the 144 participants who attended CAMNet Rendezvous during 2007–2011 and yielded 48 responses. We found that practitioners do feel hampered by legal and institutional constraints: > 70% of respondents not only believed that constraints exist, they could specifically name one or more examples of a legal constraint on their work implementing adaptive management. At the same time, we found that practitioners are generally optimistic about the potential for institutional reform.
The concept of resilience has evolved considerably since Holling's (1973) seminal paper. Different interpretations of what is meant by resilience, however, cause confusion. Resilience of a system needs to be considered in terms of the attributes that govern the system's dynamics. Three related attributes of social-ecological systems (SESs) determine their future trajectories: resilience, adaptability, and transformability. Resilience (the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks) has four components-latitude, resistance, precariousness, and panarchy-most readily portrayed using the metaphor of a stability landscape. Adaptability is the capacity of actors in the system to influence resilience (in a SES, essentially to manage it). There are four general ways in which this can be done, corresponding to the four aspects of resilience. Transformability is the capacity to create a fundamentally new system when ecological, economic, or social structures make the existing system untenable. The implications of this interpretation of SES dynamics for sustainability science include changing the focus from seeking optimal states and the determinants of maximum sustainable yield (the MSY paradigm), to resilience analysis, adaptive resource management, and adaptive governance.
The impacts of climate change are already being felt. Learning how to live with these impacts is a priority for human development. In this context, it is too easy to see adaptation as a narrowly defensive task - protecting core assets or functions from the risks of climate change. A more profound engagement, which sees climate change risks as a product and driver of social as well as natural systems, and their interaction, is called for. Adaptation to Climate Change argues that, without care, adaptive actions can deny the deeper political and cultural roots that call for significant change in social and political relations if human vulnerability to climate change associated risk is to be reduced. This book presents a framework for making sense of the range of choices facing humanity, structured around resilience (stability), transition (incremental social change and the exercising of existing rights) and transformation (new rights claims and changes in political regimes). The resilience-transition-transformation framework is supported by three detailed case study chapters. These also illustrate the diversity of contexts where adaption is unfolding, from organizations to urban governance and the national polity. This text is the first comprehensive analysis of the social dimensions to climate change adaptation. Clearly written in an engaging style, it provides detailed theoretical and empirical chapters and serves as an invaluable reference for undergraduate and postgraduate students interested in climate change, geography and development studies.
Cryospheric hazards in mountain ranges, at high latitudes, and around ice-covered volcanoes can adversely affect people by generating disasters such as glacial lake outburst floods, rock-ice landslides, lahars, and iceberg instability, as well as risks related to glacier runoff variability. These dangers are not simply biophysical; rather they are environmental events embedded within dynamic socioecological systems. To recognize the specific social and biophysical elements of cryospheric risks and hazards, in particular, this chapter introduces the concept of the socio-cryospheric system. To improve adaptive capacity and effectively grapple with diverse risks and hazards in socio-cryospheric systems, integrated approaches that span the natural sciences, engineering and planning, and the social sciences are needed. The approach outlined here involves three elements: (1) understanding cryospheric risks and hazards through scientific investigation and the accumulation of environmental knowledge regarding the biophysical basis of the hazardous stimuli; (2) preventing the natural events from occurring through risk management and engineering strategies; and (3) reducing susceptibility to harm by addressing the socioeconomic, political, and cultural factors that influence vulnerability to risks, hazards, and disasters. This chapter analyzes several case studies of particular hazards (in particular places), including glacier and glacial lake hazards in Peru (Cordillera Blanca and Santa Teresa) and Nepal; volcano-ice hazards in Colombia and Iceland, glacier runoff and melt water-related hazards in Nepal and Peru; and coastal hazards in Greenland. These case studies help illustrate achievements and limitations of the three-pronged approach to adaptation, while. revealing opportunities for greater symbiosis among scientific/knowledge-based, risk management/engineering-based, and vulnerability-based approaches to adaptation and disaster risk reduction in socio-cryospheric systems.
Understanding of the human dimensions of climate change (HDCC) in glaciated mountain regions is limited by a deficit in systematically collated information on where, to what stressors, by whom, at what scale, and with what effect adaptation is occurring. This paper presents a systematic literature review of the recent English language peer-reviewed scholarship on adaptation in glaciated mountain regions. 4050 potentially relevant articles were examined, with 36 included for full review. Results indicate that scholarly investigation into adaptation in glaciated mountains is presently limited to only 40 % of countries with alpine glaciation. Seventy-four discrete adaptation initiatives were identified, with most occurring in Peru (28 %), Nepal (22 %) and India (17 %). Many documented adaptations were initiated in response to intersecting stressors related to cryospheric change and socioeconomic development; were autonomous and initiated in reaction to experienced climatic stimuli; and were carried out at the individual, family, or community scale. The study contributes to an emerging literature tracking on-the-ground adaptation processes and outcomes, and identifies a need to raise the profile of human adaptation in glaciated mountain regions within the HDCC scholarship. A research agenda for addressing key knowledge gaps and questions is developed, providing a framework for future investigation.
The international community's support for adaptation in developing countries has proliferated through numerous complementary funding mechanisms. A range of serious practical issues are emerging, however, as adaptation moves from theory and international negotiation to implementation. We identify three areas deserving greater scrutiny: in-country priorities, entry points and delivery systems, and provide recommendations for improving adaptation practice. These concerns, if not addressed, have the potential to hamper attempts at effective delivery and to increase the vulnerability of intended beneficiaries of the adaptation agenda.
This progress report considers the need for developing a critical body of research on deliberate transformation as a response to global environmental change. Although there is a rapidly growing literature on adaptation to environmental change, including both incremental and transformational adaptation, this often focuses on accommodating change, rather than contesting it and creating alternatives. Given increasing calls from scientists and activists for transformative actions to avoid dangerous changes in the earth system, and the likelihood that ‘urgent’ solutions will be imposed by various interests, many new and important questions are emerging about individual and collective capacities to deliberately transform systems and structures in a manner that is both ethical and sustainable. This presents a transformative challenge to global change science itself that calls for new approaches to transdisciplinary research.
The need to track climate change adaptation progress is being increasingly recognized but our ability to do the tracking is constrained by the complex nature of adaptation and the absence of measurable outcomes or indicators by which to judge if and how adaptation is occurring. We developed a typology of approaches by which climate change adaptation can be tracked globally at a national level. On the one hand, outcome-based approaches directly measure adaptation progress and effectiveness with reference to avoided climate change impacts. However, given that full exposure to climate change impacts will not happen for decades, alternative approaches focus on developing indicators or proxies by which adaptation can be monitored. These include systematic measures of adaptation readiness, processes undertaken to advance adaptation, policies and programs implemented to adapt, and measures of the impacts of these policies and programs on changing vulnerability. While these approaches employ various methods and data sources, and identify different components of adaptation progress to track at the national level, they all seek to characterize the current status of adaptation by which progress over time can be monitored. However, there are significant challenges to operationalizing these approaches, including an absence of systematically collected data on adaptation actions and outcomes, underlying difficulties of defining what constitutes "adaptation", and a disconnect between the timescale over which adaptation plays out and the practical need for evaluation to inform policy. Given the development of new adaptation funding streams, it is imperative that tools for monitoring progress are developed and validated for identifying trends and gaps in adaptation response.
This article investigates the climate vulnerabilities of four least developed Asian countries—Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, and the Maldives—before discussing how efforts are underway to strengthen infrastructural, organizational, and community-based adaptation. Infrastructural adaptation refers to the assets, technologies, or “hardware” that can withstand climate change impacts, such as climate-proofed irrigation systems, roads, or electricity networks. Organizational adaptation refers to the endurance of an effective institution or set of institutions, usually government ministries or departments, in charge of planning and policy, as well as its capacity to develop and revise climate policies. Social adaptation refers to the cohesion of communities and the livelihoods of the people that compose them. We argue that resilient adaptation infrastructures can recover quickly from climate disruptions, resilient organizations can cope with new stresses and changes and still function, resilient communities have assets such as education or wealth that enable them to survive or even thrive in the face of climate-related challenges. Ongoing adaptation efforts in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, and the Maldives are examples of projects that simultaneously attempt to enhance all three dimensions of adaptation. Data for these cases comes primarily from a review of country National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs) supplemented with research interviews and site visits.
As typical inland river basins in China, the Ürümqi River Basin and the Aksu River Basin were selected as study areas in this paper. In the past several decades, the climate has had a tendency to change from warm-drying to warm-wetting, with a coinstantaneous response by mountain glacier meltwater of these areas. Comparing questionnaire survey data with scientific observation, this study focused on the character of public perception on climate and cryosphere changes, the changes' possible impacts on water resources, and adaptation measure choices by the public. Results presented in this study showed that: 1) Perceptions of most respondents on climate and cryosphere changes conform to objective facts, but some of them still have suspicion relating to these environmental changes; 2) Even though increasing precipitation and glacier meltwater has caused an increased water supply, due to the increasing demand of the unit area water for agriculture (industrial and living water demand may be involved), water shortage is still a big problem in sustainable development. Because of unemployment or the inconspicuous benefits of water-saving measures, the wasting of water resources may be a serious problem in these areas; 3) Most people preferred to choose the adaptation measures implemented by government and policy-making departments. Some people showed more preference for measures avoiding unfavorable natural environmental consequences. Public perceptions on the urgency of individual participation are still inadequate. Some of the measures should be communicated broadly and warmly encouraged; 4) Public choices of adaptation measures for climate and cryosphere change are impacted by demographic factors such as age, gender, region, nationality, education and occupation. The impacts of such factors are complicated.
Climate change adaptation measures can generate long-term unintended consequences, as this paper demonstrates through an empirical case study of water conflicts at Lake Parón in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca mountain range. This decade-long struggle culminated in 2008 when a coalition of local groups (stakeholders) from the Cruz de Mayo and Caraz communities in the Callejón de Huaylas seized control of the Lake Parón reservoir from a private multinational corporation, Duke Energy. This clash over Parón’s water in the Llullán and Santa River watersheds emerged much earlier than climatic-hydrologic models had predicted, and it occurred, this paper argues, largely because of previously successful climate adaptation measures. The drainage tunnel and floodgates originally installed at Parón in the 1980s to prevent a climate-related outburst flood led to unintended or perverse outcomes because these technological artifacts subsequently allowed a diversity of stakeholders—including rural subsistence farmers, urban residents, national park officials, tourism promoters, the state energy company Electroperú, and Duke Energy—to manage water differently depending on their priorities and the existing governance structures. Neoliberal reforms that altered state-society-environment relations in Peru played a key role in these changing stakeholder power dynamics that were reflected in the management of water infrastructure at Parón. Examining this water conflict that emerged from the unintended effects of climate adaptation demonstrates not only how technology and society are mutually constitutive, but also why the politics of technologies must be considered more carefully in the analysis of social-ecological systems, hydro-social cycles, and climate change adaptation.
This paper reflects on the resurgence and meaning of the adaptation concept in the current climate change literature. We explore the extent to which the early political economic critique of the adaptation concept has influenced how it is used in this literature. That is, has the current conceptualization been enriched by the political economic critique of the 1970s and 1980s and thus represent something new? Or is the concept used in a way today that echoes previous debates; that is, is this a déjà vu experience? To answer this question, we review the early political economic critique of the natural hazards school’s interpretations of vulnerability and adaptation. We then examine the revival of the adaptation concept in the climate change literature and discuss its main interpretations. For the purposes of this paper, the climate change literature encompasses the four IPCC reports and adaptation-focused articles in four scholarly journals: Global Environmental Change, Climatic Change, Climate and Development, and Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Our content analysis shows the dominance (70%) of “adjustment adaptation” approaches, which view climate impacts as the main source of vulnerability. A much smaller percentage (3%) of articles focus on the social roots of vulnerability and the necessity for political–economic change to achieve “transformative adaptation.” A larger share (27%) locates risk in both society and the biophysical hazard. It promotes “reformist adaptation,” typically through “development,” to reduce vulnerability within the prevailing system. We conclude with a discussion of continuity and change in the conceptualization of adaptation, and point to new research directions.
In recent years, the literature and politics in the traditionally distinct development and climate change cooperation fields are recommending a merger between these fields. The development cooperation literature and politics suggest incorporating climate change into development cooperation; and the climate change literature and politics suggest better links with development cooperation. Six arguments support this shift in perspective (logical, financial, practical, developing country, stakeholder, and reporting arguments), while six arguments justify delinking these discussions (different paths to development, political sensitivity, resources needed, changing target group, global effectiveness, and the conditionality arguments). This paper concludes that while development and climate change are closely linked, there are strong reasons to argue against mainstreaming climate change into development cooperation under current political circumstances.
There is little guidance for the health sector on identifying and prioritizing practical adaptation options to reduce current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes at local and regional levels. An approach is outlined that identifies all theoretically possible adaptation options to reduce adverse climate change-related health outcomes through a search of current practice and experience and through expert solicitation. This theoretical range of choices can then be screened to generate a list of measures that are practical for implementation in a particular population and region. This approach is applied to a theoretical country facing a projected increase in malaria due to climate change. Prioritizing the options should take into consideration technical viability, human and financial resource capacity, compatibility with current policies, and other constraints. Policy makers can combine the information generated with other considerations to select measures for implementation.
An ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) runs from the EU HighNoon project are used to project future air temperatures and precipitation on a 25 km grid for the Ganges basin in northern India, with a view to assessing impact of climate change on water resources and determining what multi-sector adaptation measures and policies might be adopted at different spatial scales.
The RCM results suggest an increase in mean annual temperature, averaged over the Ganges basin, in the range 1–4 8C over the period from 2000 to 2050, using the SRES A1B forcing scenario. Projections of precipitation indicate that natural variability dominates the climate change signal and there is considerable uncertainty concerning change in regional annual mean precipitation by 2050. The RCMs do suggest an increase in annual mean precipitation in this region to 2050, but lack significant trend. Glaciers in headwater tributary basins of the Ganges appear to be continuing to decline but it is not clear whether meltwater runoff continues to increase. The predicted changes in precipitation and temperature will probably not lead to significant increase in water availability to 2050, but the timing of runoff from snowmelt will likely occur earlier in spring and summer. Water availability is subject to decadal variability, with much uncertainty in the contribution from climate change.
Although global social-economic scenarios show trends to urbanization, locally these trends are less evident and in some districts rural population is increasing. Falling ground- water levels in the Ganges plain may prevent expansion of irrigated areas for food supply. Changes in socio-economic development in combination with projected changes in timing of runoff outside the monsoon period will make difficult choices for water managers.
Because of the uncertainty in future water availability trends, decreasing vulnerability by augmenting resilience is the preferred way to adapt to climate change. Adaptive policies are required to increase society’s capacity to adapt to both anticipated and unanticipated conditions. Integrated solutions are needed, consistent at various spatial scales, to assure robust and sustainable future use of resources. For water resources this is at the river basin scale. At present adaptation measures in India are planned at national and state level, not taking into account the physical boundaries of water systems. To increase resilience adaptation plans should be made locally specific. However, as it is expected that the partitioning of water over the different sectors and regions will be the biggest constraint, a consistent water use plan at catchment and river basin scale may be the best solution. A policy enabling such river basin planning is essential.
Amory Lovins’ distinction between ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ paths of energy technologies is applied, mutatis mutandis, to humanity's efforts to adapt to climate change. It is argued that hard adaptive measures involve capital-intensive, large, complex, inflexible technology and infrastructure, whereas soft adaptive measures prioritize natural capital, community control, simplicity and appropriateness. The prevalence of these two types of adaptation pathways is illustrated through two case studies from the Maldives: The Safer Island Development Program and the Integrating Climate Change Risks Program. Policymakers must be aware that hard and soft adaptation measures may trade off with each other, and give both paths due consideration. La distinction faite par Amory Lovins entre trajectoires « douces » et « dures » pour les technologies d’énergie est appliquée, mutatis mutandis, aux efforts humains à s'adapter au changement climatique. Il est postulé que des mesures dures d'adaptation impliquent des technologies intenses en capitaux, larges, complexes, rigides, alors que les mesures d'adaptation douces priorisent le capital naturel, le contrôle communautaire, la simplicité, et la justesse. La prévalence de ces deux types de trajectoires d'adaptation est illustrée à l'aide de deux cas d’études aux Maldives, le Programme de développement pour des îles plus sûres « Safer Island Development Program » et le Programme intégrant les risques du changement climatique « Integrating Climate Change Risks Program ». Les décideurs politiques doivent être vigilants quant à la possibilité de compromis entre mesures douces et dures d'adaptation, et dans le degré approprié d'attention à porter aux deux trajectoires.