ArticleLiterature Review

Facilitating climate‐change‐induced range shifts across continental land‐use barriers

July 2015
Conservation Biology 29(6)

DOI:10.1111/cobi.12556

Source
PubMed

Authors:

Cassandra Robillard

University of Ottawa

Laura E. Coristine

The University of Calgary

Jeremy Kerr

University of Ottawa

Climate changes impose requirements for many species to shift their ranges to remain within environmentally tolerable areas, but near-continuous regions of intense human land use stretching across continental extents diminish dispersal prospects for many species. We reviewed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on species' abilities to track changing climates and existing plans to facilitate species dispersal in response to climate change through regions of intensive land uses, drawing on examples from North America and elsewhere. We identified an emerging analytical framework that accounts for variation in species' dispersal capacities relative to both the pace of climate change and habitat availability. Habitat loss and fragmentation hinder climate change tracking, particularly for specialists, by impeding both propagule dispersal and population growth. This framework can be used to identify prospective modern-era climatic refugia, where the pace of climate change has been slower than surrounding areas, that are defined relative to individual species' needs. The framework also underscores the importance of identifying and managing dispersal pathways or corridors through semi-continental land use barriers that can benefit many species simultaneously. These emerging strategies to facilitate range shifts must account for uncertainties around population adaptation to local environmental conditions. Accounting for uncertainties in climate change and dispersal capabilities among species and expanding biological monitoring programs within an adaptive management paradigm are vital strategies that will improve species' capacities to track rapidly shifting climatic conditions across landscapes dominated by intensive human land use. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale

Article

Full-text available

May 2023
P NATL ACAD SCI USA

Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale

Preprint

Full-text available

Feb 2022

Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980's and their compositional best match in the 2010’s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

Economics of climate adaptation for biodiversity conservation

Thesis

Mar 2023

Charlotte Gerling

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and ecologists have identified necessary adaptation strategies. However, little research has been conducted so far on the economics of climate adaptation for biodiversity conservation. Three challenges arise from an economic perspective: How to (1) assess the impact of climate change on the cost-effectiveness of conservation, (2) consider the increasing uncertainty, and (3) evaluate conservation policy instruments under climate change. Addressing these challenges provides a thus far largely unexplored perspective on the economics of biodiversity conservation. This perspective relies on novel methodologies and provides policy-relevant insights. In this thesis, these challenges are addressed in eight articles. Chapter 2 presents a novel economic evaluation framework to assess policy instruments for climate adaptation. Specific criteria are developed, their relevance for different strategies is assessed and suitable instruments identified. Chapters 3 and 4 have a methodological focus as two climate-ecological-economic (CEE) models are developed. Chapter 3 presents an applied model integrating detailed sub-models able to assess the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures. In chapter 4, methods from operations research are developed further to identify optimal time series of reserve networks. In both chapters, cost-effective conservation plans are identified in case study applications. In chapter 5, CEE modelling is applied to examine the role of uncertainties regarding future climatic conditions. It is found that a trade-off between expected performance and robustness emerges in the case study in the future. In chapters 6 to 8, CEE modelling is used to assess policy instruments under climate change. Chapter 6 examines an agri-environment scheme: cost-effectiveness requires flexibility in adapting the timing of conservation measures due to species’ adaptations and changes in costs. Chapter 7 examines two versions of land purchase: a “no sale” policy which prohibits sales for ecological reasons and a “sale” policy to enhance spatial flexibility for adaptation. A new trade-off is identified: while “no sale” mainly increases habitat permanence of expanding habitat types, “sale” improves the outcome for increasingly threatened habitat types. Chapter 8 is novel in its comparative analysis of two policy instruments considering spatial and management flexibility in a case study. It is found that in the case study, conservation contracts are more cost-effective than land purchase, but that the relative suitability switches when the conservation agency is able to capture producer rents. Finally, chapter 9 uses the results of chapters 3 and 5 to develop an innovative teaching tool for students to learn about cost-effective biodiversity conservation under climate change.

Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2023
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL

Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.

Climate connectivity of the bobcat in the Great Lakes region

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2020

Abstract The Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River are imposing barriers for wildlife, and the additive effect of urban and agricultural development that dominates the lower Great Lakes region likely further reduces functional connectivity for many terrestrial species. As the climate warms, species will need to track climate across these barriers. It is important therefore to investigate land cover and bioclimatic hypotheses that may explain the northward expansion of species through the Great Lakes. We investigated the functional connectivity of a vagile generalist, the bobcat, as a representative generalist forest species common to the region. We genotyped tissue samples collected across the region at 14 microsatellite loci and compared different landscape hypotheses that might explain the observed gene flow or functional connectivity. We found that the Great Lakes and the additive influence of forest stands with either low or high canopy cover and deep lake‐effect snow have disrupted gene flow, whereas intermediate forest cover has facilitated gene flow. Functional connectivity in southern Ontario is relatively low and was limited in part by the low amount of forest cover. Pathways across the Great Lakes were through the Niagara region and through the Lower Peninsula of Michigan over the Straits of Mackinac and the St. Marys River. These pathways are important routes for bobcat range expansion north of the Great Lakes and are also likely pathways that many other mobile habitat generalists must navigate to track the changing climate. The extent to which species can navigate these routes will be important for determining the future biodiversity of areas north of the Great Lakes.

Response to concerns raised about the likelihood of protected areas serving as steppingstones for species responding to climate change

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2023

Bases físicas e indicadores del cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe

Technical Report

Full-text available

Aug 2023

Este documento de trabajo se centra en las bases de la ciencia física del cambio climático. Hace hincapié en indicadores que describen la naturaleza del cambio climático en la región, sus principales efectos en la actividad económica y en los asentamientos humanos, y la contribución de la región a las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. En la sección 2, se presenta la ciencia del cambio climático y sus interacciones con la biodiversidad y economía en América Latina y el Caribe (ALC), describiendo características de biodiversidad, actividad económica y socioeconómicas de la región. En la 3, se muestra la contribución de ALC al cambio climático, analizando sus emisiones por sector y capturas. En la 4, los efectos del cambio climático en ALC, poniendo especial énfasis el desarrollo de escenarios climáticos para la región. La 5 presenta un análisis de los compromisos climáticos de ALC. Finalmente, la sección 6 describe los hallazgos principales.

An objective approach to select surrogate species for connectivity conservation OPEN ACCESS EDITED BY

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2023

Introduction Connected landscapes can increase the effectiveness of protected areas by facilitating individual movement and gene flow between populations, thereby increasing the persistence of species even in fragmented habitats. Connectivity planning is often based on modeling connectivity for a limited number of species, i.e., “connectivity umbrellas”, which serve as surrogates for co-occurring species. Connectivity umbrellas are usually selected a priori , based on a few life history traits and often without evaluating other species. Methods We developed a quantitative method to identify connectivity umbrellas at multiple scales. We demonstrate the approach on the terrestrial large mammal community (24 species) in continental Europe at two scales: 13 geographic biomes and 36 ecoregions, and evaluate the interaction of landscape characteristics on the selection of connectivity umbrellas. Results We show that the number, identity, and attributes of connectivity umbrellas are sensitive to spatial scale and human influence on the landscape. Multiple species were selected as connectivity umbrellas in 92% of the geographic biomes (average of 4.15 species) and 83% of the ecoregions (average of 3.16 species). None of the 24 species evaluated is by itself an effective connectivity umbrella across its entire range. We identified significant interactions between species and landscape attributes. Species selected as connectivity umbrellas in regions with low human influence have higher mean body mass, larger home ranges, longer dispersal distances, smaller geographic ranges, occur at lower population densities, and are of higher conservation concern than connectivity umbrellas in more human-influenced regions. More species are required to meet connectivity targets in regions with high human influence (average of three species) in comparison to regions with low human influence (average of 1.67 species). Discussion We conclude that multiple species selected in relation to landscape scale and characteristics are essential to meet connectivity goals. Our approach enhances objectivity in selecting which and how many species are required for connectivity conservation and fosters well-informed decisions, that in turn benefit entire communities and ecosystems.

Biodiversity Conservation in Canada: From Theory to Practice

Book

Apr 2023

Richard Schneider

The aim of this book is to build a bridge between conservation theory and practice. The narrative is focused specifically on Canada. This permits an integrated treatment, where conservation theory is presented in the context of the social and institutional framework responsible for its implementation. Special attention is given to topics that are the subject of debate or controversy, as they provide valuable insight into the practical aspects of conservation. The result is a comprehensive synthesis of applied biodiversity conservation, tailored to the needs of conservation students and practitioners in Canada.

Does cross-regional natural conservation reduce the investment of conservation funds:Spatial effect analysis based on Conservation Biology

Article

Jan 2023

Spread of networked populations is determined by the interplay between dispersal behavior and habitat configuration

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2023

Predicting the spread of populations across fragmented habitats is vital if we are to manage their persistence in the long term. We applied network theory with a model and an experiment to show that spread rate is jointly defined by the configuration of habitat networks (i.e., the arrangement and length of connections between habitat fragments) and the movement behavior of individuals. We found that population spread rate in the model was well predicted by algebraic connectivity of the habitat network. A multigeneration experiment with the microarthropod Folsomia candida validated this model prediction. The realized habitat connectivity and spread rate were determined by the interaction between dispersal behavior and habitat configuration, such that the network configurations that facilitated the fastest spread changed depending on the shape of the species’ dispersal kernel. Predicting the spread rate of populations in fragmented landscapes requires combining knowledge of species-specific dispersal kernels and the spatial configuration of habitat networks. This information can be used to design landscapes to manage the spread and persistence of species in fragmented habitats.

Towards an understanding of future range shifts in lichens and mosses under climate change

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2022

Aim Lichens and mosses play important functional roles in all terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in tundra and drylands. As with all taxa, to maintain their current niche in a changing climate, lichens and mosses will have to migrate. However, there are no published estimates of future habitat suitability or necessary rates of migration for members of these groups at the global scale. Taxon Lichens and mosses. Location Global. Methods Using global occurrence data, we conducted ensemble distribution models in the ‘biomod2’ R package, parameterised with a range of climatic, land use and soil variables, to estimate current and future (2100) habitat suitability in 16 abundant species of lichen and moss. Results Without considering dispersal limitation, suitable area was forecast to expand for eight species and decline for four species. For species with predominantly boreo‐arctic distributions, suitable area typically declined at the temperate range edge and expanded across the High Arctic. Future suitable area available to dryland‐adapted species generally declined overall, likely relating to the desiccation‐tolerant physiology of lichens and mosses. The average migration rates required for species to disperse into new suitable habitat ranged from 1.7 ( Placidium squamulosum ) to 9.0 km year ⁻¹ ( Syntrichia ruralis ), although most species will need to migrate >16 km year ⁻¹ to completely fill their potential future suitable habitat. Main Conclusions For mosses and lichens, as with all species, migration will be an important part of the adjustment to a warmer climate, but realisation of these potential migrations will require both rare dispersal events and habitat that is suitable in non‐climatic dimensions. Current evidence on dispersal in these groups suggests that these geographical shifts may be unlikely to be realised without intervention, especially in landscapes that are highly modified by humans.

Ecological Network Construction of a National Park Based on MSPA and MCR Models: An Example of the Proposed National Parks of “Ailaoshan-Wuliangshan” in China

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2022

The establishment of ecological networks facilitates genetic exchange among species in national parks and is an effective means of avoiding habitat fragmentation. Using the proposed “Ailaoshan-Wuliangshan” in Yunnan Province, China, as the study area, the identification of ecological source sites using the morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) method, extraction of potential ecological corridors using the minimum resistance model (MCR) and construction of the ecological network of national parks were performed. Based on the gravity model, important ecological corridors were selected, and corresponding ecological network optimization strategies were presented. The results showed that (1) the core area identified by MSPA was 4440.08 km2, with a low degree of fragmentation, and is distributed in strips within the woodland land classes in the study area; (2) the establishment of an ecological network model of least cost resistance based on 10 indicators in four dimensions of land tenure, geographic factors, vegetation characteristics, and human meddling; (3) the ecological network included 13 ecological source sites, 77 potential ecological corridors, 48 important ecological corridors and 25 pedestrian pathways and extracts an optimal ecological corridor connecting with the natural reserve; and (4) the network closure degree of the constructed ecological network was (1.18), line point rate (3.08), network connectivity (1.12), and cost ratio (0.98). By using the proposed ecological network construction method, ecological patches and potential corridors can be accurately identified to ensure the integrity and connectivity of the national park while minimizing the land demand pressure of the surrounding communities, which provides some reference for the construction of other national parks’ ecological networks in China.

Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate driven range shifts

Article

Nov 2022
CONSERV BIOL

Diogo Alagador

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are therefore essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species' ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Comparing management strategies for conserving communities of climate-threatened species with a stochastic metacommunity model

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2022

Many species are shifting their ranges to keep pace with climate change, but habitat fragmentation and limited dispersal could impede these range shifts. In the case of climate-vulnerable foundation species such as tropical reef corals and temperate forest trees, such limitations might put entire communities at risk of extinction. Restoring connectivity through corridors, stepping-stones or enhanced quality of existing patches could prevent the extinction of several species, but dispersal-limited species might not benefit if other species block their dispersal. Alternatively, managers might relocate vulnerable species between habitats through assisted migration, but this is generally a species-by-species approach. To evaluate the relative efficacy of these strategies, we simulated the climate-tracking of species in randomized competitive metacommunities with alternative management interventions. We found that corridors and assisted migration were the most effective strategies at reducing extinction. Assisted migration was especially effective at reducing the extinction likelihood for short-dispersing species, but it often required moving several species repeatedly. Assisted migration was more effective at reducing extinction in environments with higher stochasticity, and corridors were more effective at reducing extinction in environments with lower stochasticity. We discuss the application of these approaches to an array of systems ranging from tropical corals to temperate forests. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

Emergence patterns of locally novel plant communities driven by past climate change and modern anthropogenic impacts

Article

Full-text available

May 2022
ECOL LETT

Anthropogenic disturbance and climate change can result in dramatic increases in the emergence of new, ecologically novel, communities of organisms. We used a standardised framework to detect local novel communities in 2135 pollen time series over the last 25,000 years. Eight thousand years of post‐glacial warming coincided with a threefold increase in local novel community emergence relative to glacial estimates. Novel communities emerged predominantly at high latitudes and were linked to global and local temperature change across multi‐millennial time intervals. In contrast, emergence of locally novel communities in the last 200 years, although already on par with glacial retreat estimates, occurred at midlatitudes and near high human population densities. Anthropogenic warming does not appear to be strongly associated with modern local novel communities, but may drive widespread emergence in the future, with legacy effects for millennia after warming abates.

Expert assessment of landscape-level conservation strategies in boreal forests for biodiversity, recreation and water quality

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2022
J NAT CONSERV

Determining effects of landscape-level conservation strategies is needed, yet a challenging and costly endeavour. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of landscape-level conservation strategies in forests on biodiversity and provision of two ecosystem services (recreation and water quality). Specifically, we focused on the spatial allocation of unmanaged areas in production forests and different levels of “land sharing” or “land sparing”. They were represented through seven scenarios constructed for a boreal managed forest landscape in central Sweden. All scenarios had the same total level of conservation effort, but they differed in the combinations of sizes of unmanaged areas and how these areas were spread in the landscape. In one scenario, this was complemented with extended rotation of production areas. Experts (researchers in relevant fields) assessed these scenarios for overall biodiversity, recreation, and water quality. We used the Delphi technique: experts filled out an online survey individually in two rounds. In the second round they were familiarized with anonymized responses of others from the previous round. There was little agreement between experts whether concentration of unmanaged areas in one part of the landscape or dispersion of them around the entire area is more beneficial, for biodiversity as well as for the two ecosystem services. The explanation of the opinions given by biodiversity experts were based on different ecological theories resulting in different conclusions (mainly habitat complementation vs. metapopulation ecology). A few large unmanaged areas were considered more beneficial for biodiversity than many small areas. The main argument was that long-term species persistence becomes higher with larger areas. For recreation and water quality, there were almost no differences in estimates between these two strategies. One “land sharing” approach, retention trees, received the lowest score. The second “land sharing” approach, extended rotation, was scored higher, especially regarding recreation. This may be because extended rotations generate features of high recreational value, such as mature, thinned forests with not so much dead wood. Conclusively, we suggest a strategy of mixed conservation measures, with considerable efforts directed towards establishing and maintaining large unmanaged areas.

The habitat suitability of Timor friarbird (Philemon inornatus) in Western Timor Island, Indonesia

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2022

Paga B, Pudyatmoko S, Wijayanti LR, Yuda P, Sulaksono N. 2021. The habitat suitability of Timor friarbird (Philemon inornatus) in Western Timor Island, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 23: 702-712. Timor friarbird is an endemic bird to Timor Island. The population of this bird has been declining due to land cover changes as a result of massive anthropogenic pressures. This study aimed to assess the suitability of Timor friarbird's habitat by using 12 ecogeographical variables. The sources of data included Sentinel 2A satellite imagery and remote sensing-based algorithms. The bird's presence was analyzed by using a combination of line transect with point count methods. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) model was applied to obtain habitat suitability value as well as coefficient of marginality (M) and specialization (S). These results showed that the Timor friarbird needs a habitat with a different value from the average of the entire habitat. High specialization value indicated that the species has a narrow ecological niche. Factors influencing habitat suitability included the distance from roads, the presence of mangroves, primary and secondary dryland forests, rivers, and low-density settlements. About 75% of the study area is classified as unsuitable habitat, and only 22% is suitable with range classes of suitability from marginal to optimal habitat. Areas with less anthropogenic pressure on the land cover will be preferred more by the bird. Improvement of unsuitable habitat and protection of suitable habitat, therefore, will be the most important strategy for Timor friarbird conservation.

Investigating habitat degradation of Ursus arctos using species distribution modelling and remote sensing in Zagros Mountains of Iran

Article

Oct 2021

Knowledge on habitat suitability of ecologically important species is central for their conservation management. The occurrence records of brown bear (Ursus arctos) in Kurdestan Province of Iran and environmental data were compiled to predict the ecological niche of this bear using Maxent species distribution algorithm. Satellite imagery of Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 for 1990 and 2017 was also employed to investigate human-induced land degradation in the suitable habitats of the species. The images were pre-processed and classified into seven land use and land cover (LULC) classes using support vector machine (SVM) algorithm. According to Maxent model, about 9% of the study area could be regarded as highly suitable habitat, followed by moderately suitable habitat (11.6%) and marginally suitable habitat (29.3%). The integration of Maxent potential habitat map and LULC changes revealed that more than 6997 ha of the suitable habitats of the species have been degraded due to different human activities mainly related to the conversion of natural lands and Daryan Dam construction.

Turning old foes into new allies-Harnessing drainage canals for biodiversity conservation in a desiccated European lowland region

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2021
J APPL ECOL

Drainage canals are widespread components of agricultural landscapes. Although canals have greatly contributed to biodiversity loss by desiccating wetlands, they have recently attracted conservation attention due to their potential to function as refugia for native species in intensively managed landscapes. However, their conservation role in complex landscapes composed of agricultural fields and desiccated but otherwise untransformed, semi‐natural habitats, on which canals still pose a heavy burden, is unknown. Improved understanding of drainage canals and related biodiversity in these landscapes could help unlock their potential and support synergistic land management for nature conservation and water resource management. We applied a multi‐taxon approach, including plants, butterflies, true bugs, spiders and birds, to (a) assess the conservation value of drainage canals with temporary water cover in a heavily drained European lowland region, (b) to test landscape‐level and local canal parameters for aiding prioritization among canals and (c) to propose a reconciliation‐based management framework that suits the interest of all stakeholders. We found that drainage canals and their banks concentrate more species across most taxa than semi‐natural, mostly grassland habitats, possibly due to micro‐environmental heterogeneity and the absence of low‐intensity annual management compared to grasslands. Canals traversing semi‐natural grasslands concentrate particularly high numbers of native species, but agricultural canals also support remarkable species richness. However, agricultural canals are important dispersal corridors for non‐native invasive plants, which may negatively affect native biodiversity. Canal size has little effect on biodiversity, but habitat stress is an important determinant. The higher the stress (due to sandiness and salinity), the higher the added value of canals to landscape‐wide biodiversity. Synthesis and applications . We show that drainage canals can harbour high biodiversity and should therefore be recognized as important novel ecosystems with high conservation value, even when cutting through semi‐natural grassland habitats. Canals have previously been considered detrimental to nature conservation due to their association with loss of wetlands. However, by reducing water loss with reversible obstructions, controlling invasive species and applying specific conservation measures, they may be turned into conservation allies without compromising long‐term interests of water management and agricultural land use.

The Phylogeographic Shortfall in Hexapods: A Lot of Leg Work Remaining

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2021

In the 21st century, phylogeography has experienced dramatic growth in the data and methods used by the field. Insect (more generally, hexapod) phylogeography has contributed to major advances and many of the influential papers included hexapods as model systems. In this literature review, we: (i) highlight recent phylogeographic work in hexapod systems, and (ii) identify broader trends and critical future steps in the field. We include a summary of useful methodological approaches and identify the methods used to approach different questions asked in phylogeographic studies. An updated summary of the applications that phylogeography has contributed to the field of entomology, including spatial studies, conservation, systematics, pest control, and invasive species, is included to highlight vital work in the field. Special attention is devoted to investigations which seek to use multi-species data to understand community ecological and evolutionary processes. Finally, we overview the main challenges, opportunities, and emerging areas, highlighting the “phylogeographic shortfall” that exists between the number of described hexapod species vs. the number of species that have been the focus of phylogeographic investigation.

Biodiversity conservation in climate change driven transient communities

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2021
BIODIVERS CONSERV

Species responding differently to climate change form ‘transient communities’, communities with constantly changing species composition due to colonization and extinction events. Our goal is to disentangle the mechanisms of response to climate change for terrestrial species in these transient communities and explore the consequences for biodiversity conservation. We review spatial escape and local adaptation of species dealing with climate change from evolutionary and ecological perspectives. From these we derive species vulnerability and management options to mitigate effects of climate change. From the perspective of transient communities, conservation management should scale up static single species approaches and focus on community dynamics and species interdependency, while considering species vulnerability and their importance for the community. Spatially explicit and frequent monitoring is vital for assessing the change in communities and distribution of species. We review management options such as: increasing connectivity and landscape resilience, assisted colonization, and species protection priority in the context of transient communities.

AVIAN CONSERVATION IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT: SPECIES' RESPONSES AND THE EFFICIENCY OF CONSERVATION MEASURES

Thesis

Full-text available

Aug 2020

Petteri Lehikoinen

Human induced climate change will affect global biodiversity considerably. One of the most studied consequences is climate driven redistributions of species. Simultaneously, increasing land development resulting in habitat loss will add difficulties for species to adapt and redistribute under changing climate. Failing to move or adapt, species face a risk of extinction. The high latitude and high altitude species are facing increased risk of extinction because these species have limited possibilities to retreat and the warming has been faster in northern high latitudes than other regions Protected areas are likely to aid species in adapting to the changing climate by preserving high quality natural habitats where species can thrive. However, due to extensive land use and habitat degradation protection cannot always cover a sufficient amount of high quality habitat. In this case, habitat restoration can be the solution to improve habitat quality and availability, which can have positive effects on the ability of species to move and persist under climate change.The aim of this thesis is to shed light on how protected areas have been able to mitigate the negative effects of the current climate change. In addition, itstudies the role of habitat quality in the processes of redistribution events. Lastly, the thesis evaluates how habitat enhancement by restoration affects the abundances of species threatened by wide-scale habitat loss and degradation. The focal species of the thesis are birds, owing to the extensive,long-term Finnish monitoring data which are unique even in a global perspective.In the first chapter, I study changes in abundance of the past five decades on the trailing range edge of northern and leading range edge of southern bird species. This study shows that protected areas help northern bird species maintain their abundances on the southern boundary of their current area of distribution, while aiding certain southern bird species spread to new territories on the northern boundary of their distribution area. This suggests that protected areas are able to slow down the northbound retreat of species, but also facilitate northward range expansions of southern species. The second chapter studies if the effect of conservation in mitigating climate driven changes observed in the first chapter increases with increasing coverage of the protected area network. The results show that in northern and central Finland the increasing protected area coverage in the landscape is indeed associated with communities that are more stable and less affected by climate driven changes. However, such effect was not found in southern Finland, where the protected area coverage was very low, and in fact could be too low to support detectable levels of community resilience against climate change.Populations and communities are shown to be more resilient to environmental changes when higher proportions of suitable high-quality habitat is available. Thus habitat quality could certainly explain the results gained in chapters I & II. The chapter III studies the effect of habitat quality on the occurrence of the white-backed woodpecker. Woodpeckers occupied more frequently the high- 6quality habitat patches than lower quality patches suggesting that colonization events are more and local extinctions less frequent on these sites. Thus, high-quality habitats seem to enhance the ability of species to move and persist and therefore, protection of these sites should be a priority under the redistributing outcome of climate change.Chapter IV shows that habitat quality can be further improved through restoration. Counteracting the overgrowth of wetlands rapidly increased the number of staging and breeding birds. Many waterbird species are threatened and declining due to eutrophication and overgrowth and the results show that wetland management can mitigate these negative developments.The thesis concludes that protecting high-quality habitats can mitigate climate change driven range and community changes. However, current trajectories of conservation seem to be inadequate to preserve the current biodiversity. Therefore, to meet the aims to prevent further biodiversity loss, extensive and rapid efforts to increase protected area coverage and connectivity are direly needed. The main conclusion of this thesis support these acts and the benefits this will have for preserving biodiversity in the future

Promoting climate-driven forest migration through large-scale urban afforestation

Article

Apr 2021
LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN

Anthropogenic climate warming is expected to shift the geographical distribution of forest trees worldwide. Urbanization-induced landscape fragmentation represents a considerable impediment to species’ range shifts. Large-scale afforestation is often suggested to be an effective measure to mitigate the negative impacts of landscape fragmentation. However, the effectiveness of afforestation on climate-driven forest migration has rarely been evaluated in urban environments. Here, we tested the effectiveness of two common afforestation strategies in promoting the migration of bird-dispersed tree species in Greater Manchester, UK: (A) planting trees in private gardens and roadsides and (B) establishing large woodlands in public lands. A modelling approach combining graph and circuit theory was used to assess the improvement in landscape connectivity after urban afforestation and to analyze how the two strategies promote the process of forest migration under climate change. Our results suggested that planting trees in gardens and streets could improve the spatial patterns of forest migration by forming stepping stones for the movement of birds across the urban matrix; establishing large woodlands in public areas could enhance the probability of forest migration between urban woodlands by providing population hubs. We found that the effectiveness of urban afforestation was strongly influenced by the spatial arrangement of trees and the physical characteristics of local bird species. The study offers new insight into the biodiversity benefits of urban landscapes, encourages tree-planting programs in urban environments, and calls for close cooperation between urban foresters, designers, and managers to cope with the changing climate.

Climate Change and Local Host Availability Drive the Northern Range Boundary in the Rapid Expansion of a Specialist Insect Herbivore, Papilio cresphontes

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2021

Species distributions, abundance, and interactions have always been influenced by human activity and are currently experiencing rapid change. Biodiversity benchmark surveys traditionally require intense human labor inputs to find, identify, and record organisms limiting the rate and impact of scientific enquiry and discovery. Recent emergence and advancement of monitoring technologies have improved biodiversity data collection to a scale and scope previously unimaginable. Community science web platforms, smartphone applications, and technology assisted identification have expedited the speed and enhanced the volume of observational data all while providing open access to these data worldwide. How to integrate and leverage the data into valuable information on how species are changing in space and time requires new best practices in computational and analytical approaches. Here we integrate data from three community science repositories to explore how a specialist herbivore distribution changes in relation to host plant distributions and other environmental factors. We generate a series of temporally explicit species distribution models to generate range predictions for a specialist insect herbivore (Papilio cresphontes) and three predominant host-plant species. We find that this insect species has experienced rapid northern range expansion, likely due to a combination of the range of its larval host plants and climate changes in winter. This case study shows rapid data collection through large scale community science endeavors can be leveraged through thoughtful data integration and transparent analytic pipelines to inform how environmental change impacts where species are and their interactions for a more cost effective method of biodiversity benchmarking.

Can habitat suitability estimated from MaxEnt predict colonizations and extinctions?

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2021
DIVERS DISTRIB

Aim MaxEnt has been widely used to model species’ geographic distributions as functions of environmental variables and to predict changes in distributions in response to environmental change. Here, we test the predictive ability of MaxEnt models through time by modelling colonizations and extinctions. Location North America. Methods Using data for 21 species from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we first related avian species’ geographic distributions to the spatial variation in environmental conditions. Then, we modelled site‐specific colonizations and extinctions between 1979 and 2009 as functions of MaxEnt‐estimated habitat suitability and neighbourhood occupancy. Results We found that colonization and extinction probabilities were related to spatial variation in habitat suitability, and to neighbourhood occupancy, in the expected directions. However, change in habitat suitability (which is much smaller through time than through space) is a weak predictor of extinction and worse for colonization. This is because a) for most species and most sites, climatic suitability did not change dramatically between 1979 and 2009, and b) the relationship between colonization or extinction probability and change in climatic variables is very weak (r² = 0.02). Most colonizations and extinctions are apparently unrelated to climate change. Main conclusions MaxEnt models apparently capture a real effect of habitat suitability on North American bird species’ distributions, but over short and medium time scales, occupancy of neighbouring sites by conspecifics predicts changes in occupancy as well as, or better than changes in climatic habitat suitability, as characterized by MaxEnt. One would not expect species’ distributions to track climate change closely. Prediction of species’ responses to climate change should 1) recognize that the process of colonization and extinction are not equally well predicted by species distribution models and 2) account for the spatial structure of species’ distributions.

Indigenous peoples’ displacement and jaguar survival in a warming planet

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2021

Non-technical summary Climate change threatens tropical forests, ecosystem services, and indigenous peoples. The effects of climate change will force the San Blas Island communities of the indigenous Guna people to relocate to one of the most extensive, intact forests in Panama. In this paper, we argue that the impacts of climate change, and the proposed resettlement, will synergistically affect the jaguar. As apex predators, jaguars are sensitive to landscape change and require intact forests with ample prey to survive. Proactively planning for the intrinsically related issues of climate change, human displacement, and jaguar conservation is a complex but essential management task. Technical summary Tropical rainforest, coastal, and island communities are on the front line of increasing temperatures and sea-level rise associated with climate change. Future impacts on the interconnectedness of biological and cultural diversity (biocultural heritage) remain unknown. We review the interplay between the impacts of climate change and the displacement of the indigenous Guna people from the San Blas Islands, the relocation back to their mainland territory, and the implications for jaguar persistence. We highlight one of the most significant challenges to using resettlement as an adaptive strategy to climate change, securing a location where the Guna livelihoods, traditions, and culture may continue without significant change while protecting ecosystem services (e.g. biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and water). We posit that developing management plans that strive to meet social needs without sacrificing environmental principles will meet these objectives. Social media summary A biocultural approach increases adaptive capacity for ecological and human social systems threatened by climate change.

How bioregional history could shape the future of agriculture

Chapter

Jan 2021
ADV ECOL RES

Biodiversity conservation and agriculture are becoming intimately intertwined. Wildlife-friendly agriculture is promoted as a way to conserve biodiversity, connect nature reserves, facilitate climate-driven range shifts and enhance ecosystem services to agriculture. Yet some approaches that increase native biodiversity in agricultural landscapes, such as tropical agroforestry, may support a suite of species that is distinct from nearby remnant habitat. Wildlife-friendly farming, therefore, does not necessarily facilitate native species persistence through landscape conversion to agriculture or facilitate the movement of local species among nature reserves. We argue the historical composition of native species in agricultural landscapes can be maintained by enhancing ecological similarity between production land uses and natural ecosystems. Some agricultural systems already support native species from, and share some ecological attributes with, natural grasslands, wetlands and forests. However, we suggest there are benefits to be gained by focusing on the finer details of similarities in structure, floristic composition (e.g. crop species) and disturbance regimes occurring across natural and modified habitat types. A key advancement of this approach is that the composition of agricultural diversity and its spatio-temporal dynamics are selected and managed according to the spatial and temporal habitat requirements of the wildlife species naturally inhabiting the local area. We argue that ensuring ecological similarity between agricultural systems and the ecosystems they replaced or lie between will strengthen the capacity of agricultural landscapes to maintain historical species pools and provide spatial and temporal connectivity between nature reserves and analogous future climatic zones.

Increasing protected area coverage mitigates climate-driven community changes

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2021
BIOL CONSERV

Climate change has ubiquitous impacts on ecosystems and threatens biodiversity globally. One of the most recognized impacts are redistributions of species, a process which can be hindered by habitat degradation. Protected areas (PAs) have been shown to be beneficial for preserving and reallocating species occurrences under climate change. Yet, studies investigating effects of PA networks on species' range shifts under climate change remain scarce. In theory, a well-connected network of PAs should promote population persistence under climate change and habitat degradation. To study this, we evaluated the effects of PA coverage on avian communities in Finland between two study periods of 1980–1999 and 2000–2015. Climate-driven community impacts were investigated by using community temperature index (CTI). We used linear models to study the association of PA coverage and the CTI changes in southern, central and northern Finland. In northern and central Finland, higher PA coverage was associated with lower changes in CTI and 45% PA coverage in northern and 13% in central Finland corresponded with complete mitigation of CTI increase. These results indicate that higher PA coverage strongly increases community resilience to warming climate. However a similar association between PA coverage and changes in CTI was not apparent in southern Finland. The PA coverage in southern Finland was much lower than in the two other sections and thus, may be too sparse to favour community resilience against climate change. The results provide empirical evidence for the international need to rapidly expand PA networks and halt biodiversity loss.

Racing against change: understanding dispersal and persistence to improve species' conservation prospects

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2020

Jeremy Kerr

Climate change is contributing to the widespread redistribution, and increasingly the loss, of species. Geographical range shifts among many species were detected rapidly after predictions of the potential importance of climate change were specified 35 years ago: species are shifting their ranges towards the poles and often to higher elevations in mountainous areas. Early tests of these predictions were largely qualitative, though extraordinarily rapid and broadly based, and statistical tests distinguishing between climate change and other global change drivers provided quantitative evidence that climate change had already begun to cause species’ geographical ranges to shift. I review two mechanisms enabling this process, namely development of approaches for accounting for dispersal that contributes to range expansion, and identification of factors that alter persistence and lead to range loss. Dispersal in the context of range expansion depends on an array of processes, like population growth rates in novel environments, rates of individual species movements to new locations, and how quickly areas of climatically tolerable habitat shift. These factors can be tied together in well-understood mathematical frameworks or modelled statistically, leading to better prediction of extinction risk as climate changes. Yet, species' increasing exposures to novel climate conditions can exceed their tolerances and raise the likelihood of local extinction and consequent range losses. Such losses are the consequence of processes acting on individuals, driven by factors, such as the growing frequency and severity of extreme weather, that contribute local extinction risks for populations and species. Many mechanisms can govern how species respond to climate change, and rapid progress in global change research creates many opportunities to inform policy and improve conservation outcomes in the early stages of the sixth mass extinction.

Effects of diet and temperature on monarch butterfly wing morphology and flight ability

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2020
J INSECT CONSERV

Background While global change research has greatly expanded in recent years, it remains unclear how environmental change will impact the mobility of many organisms. Flight is an important mode of transportation that affects ecological functions, including mate location, foraging, and migration. However, the effects of increasing temperature and diet quality on flight remain largely unknown. Here, we explore the effects of rearing temperature and larval diet quality on the flight ability of an iconic and ecologically threatened migratory insect, the monarch butterfly, Danaus plexippus. Experimental Design Monarch larvae were reared at two temperatures (25 °C and 28 °C) and on three milkweed species with varying phytochemistry (Asclepias incarnata, Asclepias syriaca, and Asclepias curassavica) in a fully factorial experiment. We tested flight ability using an automated flight mill, which measured cumulative flight distance, duration, and instantaneous velocity. Results Higher rearing temperatures reduced monarch flight ability, and larval diet quality influenced forewing morphology. Dietary milkweed with higher cardenolide concentrations (A. curassavica) induced shorter, wider forewings whereas milkweed with low to intermediate cardenolides (A. incarnata and A. syriaca) induced longer, narrower forewings, which are considered better for gliding flight used during migration. Implications for Insect Conservation Our results provide evidence that projected increases in temperature and the subsequent expansion of tropical milkweed (A. curassavica) into the central breeding range of eastern North American migratory monarchs could reduce migration success. Further research is needed to identify mechanisms explaining the effects of diet and temperature on monarch flight ability and fitness, to ensure that appropriate conservation strategies are employed to preserve migratory populations.

Niche, Variability in Habitat Use, and Spatial Response to Climate Change by Montane Mammals in the High-Elevation Sierra Nevada, Ca.

Thesis

Full-text available

Aug 2020

Aviva J. Rossi

Ongoing climate change is a threat to biodiversity; although many species will persist. In past climate cycles, many species responded spatially, and shifted their ranges to stay within suitable climate conditions. In warming conditions many species ranges shift higher in elevation or poleward. Tracking upslope movement of suitable conditions can reduce the range sizes for montane species, potentially leading to extirpations of populations. However, not all species will respond the same to changing conditions. Species with different ecological niches will likely exhibit distinct responses to a changing environment, including the extent and direction of spatial responses. Furthermore, differences in the magnitude of niche specialization also indicate which species may be more vulnerable to environmental change. Although climate is fundamental in limiting where a species can persist, climate alone is not the sole determinant of distribution. Therefore, efforts to conserve species in a changing climate benefit from a thorough understanding of the habitat requirements of each species. Patterns of habitat selection can change over both space and time, and at different spatial scales of habitat measurement. Consequently, multiple spatial and temporal scales must be evaluated to accurately assess habitat requirements for each species, and the variation in those requirements. Climate change has been especially pronounced in high-elevation regions such as the Sierra Nevada, California; accordingly, wildlife in these regions may be particularly vulnerable. Therefore, we characterized the niche space, evaluated variability in habitat use, and projected the range shifts under climate change for multiple small-mammals that are sympatric in much of the Sierra Nevada. Our study species included three ground-dwelling squirrels: yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), Belding’s ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi), golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis), and a small lagomorph, American pika (Ochotona princeps). Observations of individual animals were collected from five consecutive years (2008-2012) of visual encounter surveys along 21 10-km transects. The study area transects were distributed over a 320-km latitudinal gradient, covering most of the alpine and subalpine region of the Sierra Nevada. First, we characterized niche space for the ground-dwelling squirrels, to quantify which ecogeographical variable types (climate, topography, or landcover) were most important in defining the niche of each species. We conducted Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) to quantify the niche using these ecogeographical variables to generate indices of ‘marginality’ (magnitude of selection) and ‘specialization’ (narrowness of niche space). All three species demonstrated differential use of niche space, through both marginality and specialization, when compared to the available niche space. Moreover, the relative importance of the variables shaping the niche differed among these species. The niche breadth of these three species was also positively associated with geographic range size. Mammals in high-elevation mountain systems often are perceived as vulnerable to climate shifts, but our results underscore the importance of also including non-climate-based factors in defining the niche of these species. The overall magnitude of niche selection for all three species was driven by a combination of topographic, climatic, and landcover factors; thus, efforts to forecast areas where these species can persist in the future need to evaluate from more than just a climatic perspective. Next, we evaluated habitat selection at two spatial levels (extents) and two spatial scales (resolutions), across a temporal span of five years (2008-2012) for all four montane mammal species. Habitat availability was based either on visual characterization of habitat at each animal encounter (micro-scale) or from a spatial database (macro-scale), and selection was analyzed at two levels, the transect and the region. Belding’s ground squirrels selected meadow habitat across all levels and scales. Yellow-bellied marmots most frequently selected for meadows; however, other habitat types, such as rocks or shrubs, were sometimes selected for depending on the level and scale. Golden-mantled ground squirrels exhibited variable selection, but they most often selected for meadow or conifer. American pika strongly selected for rocks at the micro-scale, but this pattern was obscured at the macro-scale. Habitat selection for all four species varied by both level and scale, and across years, with stronger and more consistent selection often occurring at the micro-scale. Our results highlight the importance of documenting habitat use through direct observations, as relying solely on spatial databases can obscure the importance of essential habitat types. Finally, we modeled the current (time of the survey) and future (2070) distribution of suitable areas for all four species using a Random Forest model. Our future predictions showed both gains and losses to suitable area for these species in the Sierra Nevada, with important differences among species. Both golden-mantled ground squirrel and yellow-bellied marmot were predicted to have a net gain of suitable area, while Belding’s ground squirrel and American pika were predicted to experience a net loss. Yellow-bellied marmot, golden-mantled ground squirrel, and American pika all had gains of suitable area, primarily along the high-elevation crest of the Sierra Nevada. Belding’s ground squirrel was predicted to lose suitable area overall, and that loss was primarily along the crest. If climate change continues along the current trajectory, the future of Belding’s ground squirrel in the Sierra Nevada is in peril. Video Summarizing Findings Available at - https://youtu.be/_AnyVil_qQ4.

Assessing future distribution, suitability of corridors and efficiency of protected areas to conserve vulnerable ungulates under climate change

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2020
DIVERS DISTRIB

Aim Central part of Iran harbours populations of wild ungulates that are threatened or extinct over large parts of the region, and are likely to be impacted by climate change. In this study, we predicted the impact of climate change on the distribution of three vulnerable ungulates in central Iran. We then evaluated future suitability of corridors connecting the protected areas for movement of the ungulates in response to climate change. Location Central Iran. Methods Impact of climate change on distribution of goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa ), wild sheep (Ovis spp) and wild goat (Capra aegagrus ) was predicted adapting an ensemble modelling approach and under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. We then used CIRCUITSCAPE software with current and future distribution maps to identify corridors for movement of the three ungulates, and evaluate likely changes in their suitability under climate change. Results Our results revealed that climate change might result in loss of 55%, 69% and 76% of suitable habitats for goitered gazelle, wild sheep and wild goat by 2070, respectively. These losses also resulted in some protected areas to become unsuitable for the ungulates. However, we identified key protected areas with the potential for future protection of these ungulates. For the three species, we also identified corridors which would persist into the future, allowing the impacted populations to move in response to climate change. Main conclusions Conservation of ungulate populations in Iran mainly depends on the protected areas. To maintain the role of the protected areas in conserving these mammals under climate change, we recommend the incorporation of their potential future distribution into conservation plans, increasing protection status of the key protected areas, and maintain critical corridors. In this regard, combining results of distribution and connectivity models provides useful information for effective management of these ungulates in the future.

Human land uses reduce climate connectivity across North America

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2020

Climate connectivity, the ability of a landscape to promote or hinder the movement of organisms in response to a changing climate, is contingent on multiple factors including the distance organisms need to move to track suitable climate over time (i.e. climate velocity) and the resistance they experience along such routes. An additional consideration which has received less attention is that human land uses increase resistance to movement or alter movement routes and thus influence climate connectivity. Here we evaluate the influence of human land uses on climate connectivity across North America by comparing two climate connectivity scenarios, one considering climate in isolation and the other considering climate change and human land uses. In doing so, we introduce a novel metric of climate connectivity, ‘human exposure’, that quantifies the cumulative exposure to human activities that organisms may encounter as they shift their ranges in response to climate change. We also delineate potential movement routes and evaluate whether the protected area network supports movement corridors better than non‐protected lands. We found that when incorporating human land uses, climate connectivity decreased; climate velocity increased on average by 0.3 km/yr and cumulative climatic resistance increased for ~83% of the continent. Moreover, ~96% of movement routes in North America must contend with human land uses to some degree. Additionally, we found that protected areas do not support climate corridors at a higher rate than non‐protected lands; however, variability across North America is evident, as many ecoregions contain protected areas that exhibit both more and less representation of climate corridors compared to non‐protected lands. Overall, our study indicates that previous evaluations of climate connectivity underestimate climate change exposure because they do not account for human impacts.

The benefits of using topographic features to predict climate-resilient habitat for migratory forest landbirds: An example for the Rusty Blackbird, Olive-sided Flycatcher, and Canada Warbler

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2020
CONDOR

Maintaining a functionally connected network of high-quality habitat is one of the most effective responses to biodiversity loss. However, the spatial distribution of suitable habitat may shift over time in response to climate change. Taxa such as migratory forest landbirds are already undergoing climate-driven range shifts. Therefore, patches of climate-resilient habitat (also known as "climate refugia") are especially valuable from a conservation perspective. Here, we performed maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling to predict suitable and potentially climate-resilient habitat in Nova Scotia, Canada, for 3 migratory forest landbirds: Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi), and Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis). We used a reverse stepwise elimination technique to identify covariates that influence habitat suitability for the target species at broad scales, including abiotic (topographic control of moisture and nutrient accumulation) and biotic (forest characteristics) covariates. As topography should be relatively unaffected by a changing climate and helps regulate the structure and composition of forest habitat, we posit that the inclusion of appropriate topographic features may support the identification of climate-resilient habitat. Of all covariates, depth to water table was the most important predictor of relative habitat suitability for the Rusty Blackbird and Canada Warbler, with both species showing a strong association with wet areas. Mean canopy height was the most important predictor for the Olive-sided Flycatcher, whereby the species was associated with taller trees. Our models, which comprise the finest-scale species distribution models available for these species in this region, further indicated that, for all species, habitat (1) remains relatively abundant and well distributed in Nova Scotia and (2) is often located in wet lowlands (a climate-resilient topographic landform). These findings suggest that opportunities remain to conserve breeding habitat for these species despite changing temperature and precipitation regimes. Importance de l'utilisation d'éléments topographiques pour prédire l'habitat résilient aux changements climatiques des oiseaux forestiers migrateurs: un exemple pour Euphagus carolinus, Contopus cooperi, et Cardellina canadensis RÉSUMÉ Le maintien d'un réseau d'habitats de grande qualité fonctionnellement connectés est l'une des solutions les plus efficaces à la perte de biodiversité. Cependant, la répartition spatiale des habitats propices peut changer dans le temps en réponse aux changements climatiques. Des taxons comme les oiseaux forestiers migrateurs modifient déjà leur répartition en réaction aux changements climatiques. Par conséquent, des îlots d'habitats résilients aux changements climatiques (aussi connus sous le nom de « refuges climatiques ») sont particulièrement précieux du point de vue de la conservation. Nous avons effectué une modélisation de la répartition des espèces par la méthode de l'entropie maximale (Maxent) afin de prédire les habitats propices et potentiellement résilients aux changements climatiques en Nouvelle-Écosse, au Canada, pour trois oiseaux forestiers migrateurs: Euphagus carolinus, Contopus cooperi, et Cardellina canadensis. Nous avons utilisé une technique d'élimination par étapes inversée afin d'identifier les covariables qui influencent la qualité de l'habitat pour ces espèces cibles sur de grandes échelles, dont les covariables abiotiques (contrôle topographique de l'humidité et accumulation des nutriments) et biotiques (caractéristiques de la forêt). Puisque la topographie devrait demeurer relativement intouchée par les changements climatiques et qu'elle contribue à réguler la structure et la composition de l'habitat forestier, nous posons l'hypothèse que l'inclusion d'éléments topographiques appropriés peut appuyer l'identification d'habitats résilients aux changements climatiques. De toutes les covariables, la profondeur de la nappe phréatique était la plus importante pour prédire la qualité relative de l'habitat pour E. carolinus et C. canadensis, chacune de ces espèces présentant une forte association avec les zones humides. La hauteur moyenne de la canopée était la variable explicative la plus importante pour Contopus cooperi, alors que cette espèce était associée aux plus grands arbres. Nos modèles, qui comprennent les modèles de répartition des espèces aux échelles les plus fines disponibles pour ces espèces dans cette région, indiquent également que, pour toutes ces espèces, l'habitat (1) demeure relativement abondant et bien réparti en Nouvelle-Écosse et (2) est souvent situé dans les terres basses humides (une forme de relief résiliente aux changements climatiques). Ces résultats suggèrent qu'il subsiste des opportunités pour conserver l'habitat de reproduction de ces espèces malgré les changements de température et de régimes de précipitations.

Climate change and local host availability drive the northern range boundary in the rapid northward expansion of the eastern giant swallowtail butterfly

Preprint

Full-text available

Dec 2019

Aims Species distributions result from both biotic and abiotic interactions across large spatial scales. The interplay of these interactions as climate changes quickly has been understudied, particularly in herbivorous insects. Here, we investigate the relative impacts these influences on the putative northern range expansion of the giant swallowtail butterfly in North America. Location North America. Time period 1959-2018. Major taxa studied Eastern Giant swallowtail, Papilio cresphontes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae); common hop tree, Ptelea trifoliata ; common prickly ash, Zanthoxylum americanum ; southern prickly ash, Zanthoxylum clava-herculis (Saphidales: Rutaceae). Methods We used data from museum collections and citizen science repositories to generate species distribution models. Distribution models were built for each species over two time periods (T1 = 1959-1999; T2 = 2000-2018). Results Models for P. cresphontes and associated host plants had high predictive accuracy on spatially-explicit test data (AUC 0.810-0.996). Occurrence data align with model outputs, providing strong evidence for a northward range expansion in the last 19 years (T2) by P. cresphontes . Host plants have shifted in more complex ways, and result in a change in suitable habitat for P. cresphontes in its historic range. P. cresphontes has a northern range which now closely aligns with its most northern host plant - continued expansion northward is unlikely, and historic northern range limits were likely determined by abiotic, not biotic, factors. Main conclusions Biotic and abiotic factors have driven the rapid northern range expansion in the giant swallowtail butterfly across North America in the last 20 years. A number of bioclimatic variables are correlated with this expansion, notably an increase in mean annual temperature and minimum winter temperature. We predict a slowing of northward range expansion in the next 20-50 years as butterflies are now limited by the range of host plants, rather than abiotic factors.

Is habitat conversion likely to impede the ability of bird species to track changing climate?

Article

Apr 2019

Applying the patch-matrix model to lakes: a connectivity-based conservation framework

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2019
LANDSCAPE ECOL

Context Biodiversity conservation for terrestrial species often emphasizes land protection to help maintain connectivity among habitat patches. However, conservation of aquatic and semi-aquatic species is challenging because aquatic species (e.g., fish) move among lakes using aquatic connections (e.g., streams, wetlands), whereas semi-aquatic species (e.g., amphibians) use both aquatic connections and upland habitats. Objectives We applied the patch-matrix model to create an aquatic and semi-aquatic connectivity framework for lakes. We applied our framework using lakes in Michigan, USA to examine (1) the relationship between aquatic and semi-aquatic connectivity for lakes and (2) the extent to which protected areas encompass aquatic and semi-aquatic connectivity among lakes. Methods We used principal component analysis to calculate aquatic and semi-aquatic connectivity scores for lakes. We then examined relationships among aquatic and semi-aquatic connectivity scores and existing protected areas (strict and multi-use). Results Fewer than 3% of lakes had high scores for either aquatic or semi-aquatic connectivity. Connectivity scores were generally higher in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, which is heavily forested with greater land protection. Although lake protection was overall low (16 and 32% of lake watersheds in Michigan were ≥ 10% protected under strict and multi-use protection, respectively), highly connected lakes were generally more protected than less connected lakes. Conclusions We propose using our aquatic and semi-aquatic connectivity framework to (1) identify and prioritize lakes for conservation that are likely to have high biodiversity and conservation value and (2) generate testable hypotheses for studying the integrated terrestrial-aquatic landscape under global change.

Limited range shifting in biocrusts despite climate warming: A 25‐year resurvey

Article

Jul 2023

The ranges of many species globally have already shifted to maintain climatic equilibrium in the face of climate change. Biocrusts—soil surface dwelling communities of lichens, bryophytes and microbes—play important functional roles in many ecosystems, particularly in drylands. Compared to better studied animal and plant taxa, dryland biocrusts have different establishment requirements and have never been assessed for historical range shifts. Here, we revisited the sites ( N = 204) of a 25‐year‐old biocrust survey across a large area (400,000 km ² ) of drylands in south‐eastern Australia. We used quadratic models to quantify changes in the climate niches of 15 lichen, eight moss and five liverwort taxa, as well as biocrust cover and richness. Our models showed that the observed climatic niches of most taxa have become hotter and drier in the past quarter century, yet the responses of the vast majority of taxa are consistent with remaining in the same geographic space. A similar pattern was observed at the community level, where the peak of biocrust cover and richness now occurs in a hotter, drier environment. Notable exceptions were the liverwort Riccia lamellosa and lichens in the genera Cladonia and Xanthoparmelia , which showed signs of contraction at their arid range edges. Unlike more mobile taxa, most biocrust species have yet to shift geographically and may already be lagging behind the pace of climate change. One explanation for the mortality lag is that long‐term climate variability in the system is extensive, which may have selected for the ability to withstand multi‐year warm periods as long as there is an eventual return to milder conditions. However, no forecasts of future climate include a return to milder conditions, suggesting there will be an eventual loss of ecosystem multifunctionality at the contracting front. Expansion lags are most likely due to delays in the mortality of competing vascular plants. Synthesis : Our study provides a valuable contribution to the knowledge of range shifts in understudied taxa and highlights a future need to promote the expansion of biocrusts to maintain the provision of ecosystem functions and services across their range.

Priorities for Information, Research and Conservation of Birds in High Mountains

Chapter

Jul 2023

High mountain habitats are globally important for biodiversity. At least 12% of birds worldwide breed at or above the treeline, many of which are endemic species or species of conservation concern. However, due to the challenges of studying mountain birds in difficult-to-access habitats, little is known about their status and trends. This book provides the first global review of the ecology, evolution, life history and conservation of high mountain birds, including comprehensive coverage of their key habitats across global mountain regions, assessments of diversity patterns along elevation gradients, and adaptations for life in the alpine zone. The main threats to mountain bird populations are also identified, including climate change, human land use and recreational activities. Written for ecologists and naturalists, this book identifies key knowledge gaps and clearly establishes the research priorities needed to increase our understanding of the ecology of mountain birds and to aid in their conservation.

Detecting low fragmented sites surrounding European protected areas – Implications for expansion of the Natura 2000 network

Article

Mar 2023
J NAT CONSERV

EU member states have set an ambitious goal of establishing additional protected areas (PAs) preserving 30 % of terrestrial land by 2030, specifying that additions should be of high ecological quality. A targeted selection of existing PA expansions into surroundings marginally fragmented by human infrastructure, may be an efficacious strategy to secure high ecological quality by maximizing PA area, accommodating species movement, and boosting climate change resilience. We used high-resolution data on effective mesh density, a metric measuring landscape fragmentation, in the vicinity of Natura 2000 PAs (N2k) to assess their potential for expansion. Our results show that contrary to most of Central Europe, mountainous and remote territories exhibit the lowest degree of fragmentation in N2k surroundings. Fragmentation in N2k surroundings is highly correlated with national population density, while economic wealth, measured by GDP per capita, plays a minor role. To address the long-standing dilemma of where scarce economic resources in nature conservation do the most-good, we conducted a country-level comparison between fragmentation in N2k surroundings and national expenditures on nature conservation relative to N2k area. Our results show a vast incongruity in resource availability for nature conservation among EU countries. Eastern European states, especially Romania, host underfunded N2k PAs while holding the highest potential for expanding N2k PAs into low fragmented lands. If protecting low fragmented lands is accepted as an efficacious strategy to meet EU biodiversity targets our results could be used to formulate pragmatic conservation decisions, while also ensuring high ecological quality of PA additions under climate change.

Expanded distribution and predicted suitable habitat for the critically endangered yellow‐tailed woolly monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda) in Perú

Article

Jan 2023

The Tropical Andes Biodiversity Hotspot holds a remarkable number of species at risk of extinction due to anthropogenic habitat loss, hunting, and climate change. One of these species, the critically endangered yellow-tailed woolly monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda), was recently observed in the region Junín, 206 km south of its previously known distribution. This range extension, combined with continued habitat loss, calls for a reevaluation of the species distribution, and available suitable habitat. Here, we present novel data from surveys at 53 sites in the regions of Junín, Cerro de Pasco, Ayacucho, and Cusco. We encountered L. flavicauda at 9 sites, all in Junín, and the congeneric Lagothrix lagotricha tschudii at 20 sites, but never in sympatry. Using these new localities along with all previous geographic localities for the species, we made predictive species distribution models based on ecological niche modeling using a generalized linear model and maximum entropy. Each model incorporated bioclimatic variables, forest cover, vegetation measurements, and elevation as predictor variables. The model evaluation showed >80% accuracy for all measures. Precipitation was the strongest predictor of species presence. Habitat suitability maps illustrate potential corridors for gene flow between the southern and northern populations, although much of this area is inhabited by L. l. tschudii whereas L. flavicauda has yet to be officially confirmed in these areas, by these or any other scientific surveys. An analysis of the current protected area (PA) network showed that ~75% of remaining suitable habitat is unprotected. With this, we suggest priority areas for new PAs or expansions to existing reserves that would conserve potential corridors between L. flavicauda populations. Further surveys and characterization of the distribution in intermediate areas, combined with studies on gene flow through these areas, are still needed to protect this species.

Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts

Article

Oct 2022

As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance-based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011. We hypothesized that there is a significant positive correlation in both direction and velocity between the observed and the modeled shifts. We then tested five additional hypotheses that predicted differential shifting velocity based on ecological adaptability and climate change exposure. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found large differences between the observed and modeled shifts among all studied bird species and within specific ecological guilds. However, temperate migrants and habitat generalist species tended to have higher velocity of observed shifts than other species. Neotropical migratory and wetland birds also had significantly different observed velocities than their counterparts, which may be due to their climate change exposure. The velocity based on modeled bioclimatic suitability did not exhibit significant differences among most guilds. Boreal forest birds were the only guild with significantly faster modeled-shifts than the other groups, suggesting an elevated conservation risk for high latitude and altitude species. The highly idiosyncratic species responses to climate and the mismatch between shifts in modeled and observed distribution centroids highlight the challenge of predicting species distribution change based solely on climate suitability and the importance of non-climatic factors traits in shaping species distributions.

Expanded Distribution and Predicted Suitable Habitat for the Critically Endangered Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkey ( Lagothrix flavicauda ) in Peru

Preprint

Full-text available

May 2022

The Tropical Andes Biodiversity Hotspot holds a remarkable number of species at risk of extinction due to anthropogenic habitat loss, hunting and climate change. One of these species, the Critically Endangered yellow-tailed woolly monkey ( Lagothrix flavicauda ), was recently sighted in Junín region, 206 kilometres south of its previously known distribution. The range extension, combined with continued habitat loss, calls for a re-evaluation of the species’ distribution and available suitable habitat. Here, we present novel data from surveys at 53 sites in the regions of Junín, Cerro de Pasco, Ayacucho and Cusco. We encountered L. flavicauda at 9 sites, all in Junín, and the congeneric L. l. tschudii at 20 sites, but never in sympatry. Using these new localities along with all previous geographic localities for the species, we made predictive Species Distribution Models based on Ecological Niche Modelling using a generalized linear model and maximum entropy. Each model incorporated bioclimatic variables, forest cover, vegetation measurements, and elevation as predictor variables. Model evaluation showed >80% accuracy for all measures. Precipitation was the strongest predictor of species presence. Habitat suitability maps illustrate potential corridors for gene flow between the southern and northern populations, although much of this area is inhabited by L. l. tschudii . An analysis of the current protected area (PA) network showed ∼47% of remaining suitable habitat is unprotected. With this, we suggest priority areas for new protected areas or expansions to existing reserves that would conserve potential corridors between L. flavicauda populations. Further surveys and characterization of the distribution in intermediate areas, combined with studies on genetic flow, are still needed to protect this species.

Impacts of climate change on the forest ecosystem

Technical Report

Full-text available

Apr 2022

In this report, we summarize the current state of knowledge and best estimates of how climate change is expected to impact Norwegian forest ecosystems from now to the year 2100

Modeled Distribution Shifts of North American Birds Over Four Decades Based on Suitable Climate Do Not Predict Observed Shifts

Article

Jan 2022

RESILIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AMONG RURAL AND URBAN POPULATION IN CHIDAMBARAM TALUK - A COMPARATIVE STUDY

Article

Dec 2021

Dr. T Pugalenthi

The intense changes in climate change directly and indirectly affect the agriculture, food supply and even the service sectors. Hence, as we people have to change our method of agriculture and other elated activates. The study was conducted in Chidambaram Taluk in Cuddalore District. The present study covered the four villages and five wards were selected from town. First, selection of village which are nearer to the town and wards in the town often affected by heavy rain, drought during summer and in general affected agriculture, food supply. Proportionate Random sampling techniques was used. Total sample size was 180 as proportionate to the population in the wards and villages. Finally 172 were used for the analysis and presentation. The study conducted with the following objectives.To understand the socio-economic and demographic conditions of the respondents in the study area, To examine the resilience of climate changes among the rural respondents and to analyse the use of different method used among the respondents in the study area To prove the association between the variables such as sex, place, religion, caste, occupation, income of the family, age, presently cropping. Holding agricultural lands statistically prove, the resilience accepted by place, education. Presently cropping and those who were having agricultural lands in the study area were significantly associated at 1% level. Income of the family religion, caste were significantly associated at 5% level. Create awareness campaign about the ozone depletion and the effects ozone depletion in both rural and urban areas. Insurance scheme on flood damage was poor response in rural areas but it was little higher in urban areas as they were all affected in the past 5 years than rural people. Adaptation of forecasting system was also poor in rural areas. Motivate the rural people to follow forecasting measures given by the government agencies and NGOs.

Environmental filtering and deforestation shape frog assemblages in Amazonia: An empirical approach assessing species abundances and functional traits

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2021

Biological assemblages are often predictable from knowledge of natural environmental heterogeneity and change in response to anthropogenic disturbances, such as deforestation, so understanding ecological mechanisms and processes mediating assemblages is essential to direct conservation actions. We sampled frogs along an edaphic and vegetation‐structure gradient in the Brazilian Amazon to test the hypothesis that assemblages change in species composition and functional trait characteristics across landscapes due to environmental filtering. Our study area covered a gradient of forest fragmentation, and we hypothesized that assemblages would change in response to both natural gradients and deforestation. We found that frog assemblages are locally structured by species turnover along gradients in distance to water bodies, vegetation structure, soil sand and silt content, and proportion of the area deforested. Additionally, we found that small‐bodied species and those with direct breeding (no larval stage) were no longer present in deforested areas. We conclude that frog assemblages are not randomly distributed across forests, but trait filtering has resulted in different species subsets from the regional pool, which change among sites with different environmental conditions and disturbance levels. Our findings highlight the importance of creating reserves to effectively protect forests and maintain connectivity among forest fragments resulting from deforestation. Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material.

Suggestions for the Qinling National Park Construction based on experiences of international large-scale ecological corridors

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2021

Turning old foes into new allies - harnessing drainage canals for biodiversity conservation in desiccated novel ecosystems

Preprint

Full-text available

Apr 2020

Drainage canals are ubiquitous components of agricultural landscapes worldwide. Although canals have greatly contributed to biodiversity loss by desiccating wetlands, they have recently attracted conservation attention due to their potential to function as refugia for native wetland-dependent species in intensively managed landscapes. However, their conservation role in complex landscapes comprising a mosaic of agricultural and desiccated semi-natural habitats, on which canals still pose a heavy burden, is unknown. Improved understanding of drainage canals and related biodiversity in these landscapes could help unlock their potential and support synergistic land management for nature conservation and water management. We applied a multitaxon approach, including plants, butterflies, true bugs, spiders and birds, to (1) assess the conservation value of drainage canals in a heavily drained European lowland region, (2) to test landscape-level and local canal parameters for aiding prioritization among canal types, and (3) to propose a reconciliation-based management framework that suits the interest of all stakeholders. We found that drainage canals concentrate more species across most taxa than adjacent semi-natural habitats, owing to the micro-environmental heterogeneity and the comparatively low management intensity in the canals. The species-concentrating capacity is particularly high in canals that traverse semi-natural habitats, although agricultural canals also support remarkable species diversity. However, agricultural canals are important dispersal corridors for invasive plants, which may negatively affect native species. Canal size has little effect on biodiversity but habitat stress is an important determinant. The higher the stress (due to sandiness and salinity), the higher is the added value of canals to landscape-wide biodiversity. Synthesis and applications We provide evidence that drainage canals can harbour surprisingly high levels of biodiversity and should therefore be recognized as important novel ecosystems with high conservation value, even within semi-natural habitats. Canals have previously been considered detrimental to nature conservation due to their association with loss of wetlands. However, by reducing water loss with reversible obstructions, controlling invasive species and applying specific conservation measures, they may be turned into conservation allies without compromising long-term interests of water management and agricultural land use.

Persistent climate corridors: The identification of climate refugia in British Columbia's Central Interior for the selection of candidate areas for conservation

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2011

Climate-driven change is catalyzing the global re-distribution of species and ecosystems and is threatening their persistence. These changes undermine the current conservation paradigm that has a static approach to a dynamic system. Conservation planning agencies, such as the Nature Conservancy of Canada, recognize this quandary and have started to incorporate the potential (though uncertain) impacts of climate change into its planning framework. As a component of the Conservancy’s Central Interior Ecoregional Assessment, we identified bioclimatic envelopes for 206 conservation targets (103 biogeoclimatic variants, 30 terrestrial ecological units, 73 British Columbia Conservation Data Centre plant species) using ClimateBC and ArcMap software. Using ClimateBC interpolations of current and expected future climatic conditions, locations projected to meet the 5th through 95th percentile requirements of a target’s bioclimatic envelope were identified for four timeslices. The points of coincidence between these areas were identified as a target’s projected suitable climate space; locations or areas of a target’s current distribution that coincided with its climate space were identified as the target’s persistent climate corridor (PCC). Our results projected PCCs to exist for only 10% (10/103) of the biogeoclimatic variants, 20% (6/30) of the terrestrial ecological units, and 10% (7/73) of plant species under the CGCM3 general circulation model using the A2 scenario. When comparing the projected results with those derived for three different general circulation model and scenario combinations, it is clear that the existence and locations of PCCs are subject to great uncertainty. Nevertheless, we argue that the identification of climate refugia should be an important consideration in the site selection and prioritization of candidate areas for conservation.

The North American Breeding Bird Survey 1966–2011: Summary Analysis and Species Accounts

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2013

The North American Breeding Bird Survey is a roadside, count-based survey conducted by volunteer observers. Begun in 1966, it now is a primary source of information on spatial and temporal patterns of population change for North American birds. We analyze population change for states, provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and the entire survey within the contiguous United States and southern Canada for 426 species using a hierarchical log-linear model that controls for observer effects in counting. We also map relative abundance and population change for each species using a spatial smoothing of data at the scale of survey routes. We present results in accounts that describe major breeding habitats, migratory status, conservation status, and population trends for each species at several geographic scales. We also present composite results for groups of species categorized by habitats and migratory status. The survey varies greatly among species in percentage of species' range covered and precision of results, but consistent patterns of decline occur among eastern forest, grassland, and aridland obligate birds while generalist bird species are increasing.

Treatment of uncertainty in conservation under climate change

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2013

Climate change is an important threat to biodiversity globally, but there are major uncertainties associated with its magnitude and ecological consequences. Here, we investigate how three major classes of uncertainty, linguistic uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty (uncertainty about facts), and human decision uncertainty, have been accounted for in scientific literature about climate change. Some sources of uncertainty are poorly characterized and epistemic uncertainty is much more commonly treated than linguistic or human decision uncertainty. Furthermore, we show that linguistic and human decision uncertainties are relatively better treated in the literature on sociopolitics or economics than in natural sciences, which often overlook communication between stakeholders and socioeconomic consequences. As uncertainty can significantly influence implementation of conservation, we discuss uncertainties associated with some commonly proposed conservation adaptation actions to mitigate climate change. There may be major differences between strategies, with implications on how they should be viewed in conservation planning. We conclude that evaluating conservation strategies in terms of different types of uncertainty will facilitate communication between disciplines and stakeholders. While accounting for uncertainties in a quantitative manner is difficult and data demanding, even qualitative appreciation about the uncertainties inherent in conservation strategies can facilitate and improve decision making.

Shifting protected areas: Scheduling spatial priorities under climate change

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2014
J APPL ECOL

Conservation planning decisions are constrained by three important factors: budgets are limited, important areas for biodiversity compete for space with other uses, and climate- and land-use changes are affecting the distribution of life thus compounding existing threats to biodiversity. Decisions about locating and allocating resources for conservation in such complex and dynamic world are far from trivial, with apparently optimal decisions in the present being potential suboptimal in the future.We propose a methodological framework for the dynamic spatial prioritization of conservation areas that optimizes long-term conservation goals under climate change. This approach involves a sequential scheduling of conservation areas designation, followed by the release of some areas when they stop contributing to the specified long-term conservation goals. The usefulness of the proposed approach is demonstrated with a case study involving ten species in the Iberian Peninsula under severe scenarios of climate change, but the framework could be applied more broadly.Species persistence under climate change is enhanced by the dynamic spatial prioritization strategy that assumes area release. With such strategy, the long-term persistence of species is consistently higher than expected with no release of redundant areas, particularly when the budgets to acquire and manage conservation areas are small. When budgets are small, long-term persistence of species might only be achieved when the release of previously selected areas is considered alongside the selection of new areas.Synthesis and applications. Given that conservation budgets are typically small, conservation strategies involving the release of some underperforming areas might be required to achieve long-term persistence of species. This should be the case when climate change forces species to move out of current protected areas with other areas becoming important to meet conservation objectives. Implementing such dynamic prioritization approach would require a paradigm shift in conservation planning because conservation areas, once selected, are rarely released. Dynamic selection of areas also involves risks that should be considered in a case-by-case situation.

The Implications of Climate Change for Biodiversity Conservation and the National Reserve System: Final Synthesis

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2012

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2014
NATURE

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

Eco-evolutionary responses of biodiversity to climate change

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2012

Climate change is predicted to alter global species diversity(1), the distribution of human pathogens' and ecosystem services(3). Forecasting these changes and designing adequate management of future ecosystem services will require predictive models encompassing the most fundamental biotic responses. However, most present models omit important processes such as evolution and competition(4,5). Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary model of multi-species responses to climate change. We demonstrate that both dispersal and evolution differentially mediate extinction risks and biodiversity alterations through time and across climate gradients. Together, high genetic variance and low dispersal best minimized extinction risks. Surprisingly, high dispersal did not reduce extinctions, because the shifting ranges of some species hastened the decline of others. Evolutionary responses dominated during the later stages of climatic changes and in hot regions. No extinctions occurred without competition, which highlights the importance of including species interactions in global biodiversity models. Most notably, climate change created extinction and evolutionary debts, with changes in species richness and traits occuring long after climate stabilization. Therefore, even if we halt anthropogenic climate change today, transient eco-evolutionary dynamics would ensure centuries of additional alterations in global biodiversity.

Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2014
EVOL APPL

As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species' life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change.

Evolutionary stasis and lability in thermal physiology in a group of tropical lizards

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2014
Proc Biol Sci

Understanding how quickly physiological traits evolve is a topic of great interest, particularly in the context of how organisms can adapt in response to climate warming. Adjustment to novel thermal habitats may occur either through behavioural adjustments, physiological adaptation or both. Here, we test whether rates of evolution differ among physiological traits in the cybotoids, a clade of tropical Anolis lizards distributed in markedly different thermal environments on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola. We find that cold tolerance evolves considerably faster than heat tolerance, a difference that results because behavioural thermoregulation more effectively shields these organisms from selection on upper than lower temperature tolerances. Specifically, because lizards in very different environments behaviourally thermoregulate during the day to similar body temperatures, divergent selection on body temperature and heat tolerance is precluded, whereas night-time temperatures can only be partially buffered by behaviour, thereby exposing organisms to selection on cold tolerance. We discuss how exposure to selection on physiology influences divergence among tropical organisms and its implications for adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming.

Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2013

The dynamic nature and diversity of species’ responses to climate change poses significant difficulties for developing robust, long-term conservation strategies. One key question is whether existing protected area networks will remain effective in a changing climate. To test this, we developed statistical models that link climate to the abundance of internationally important bird populations in northwestern Europe. Spatial climate–abundance models were able to predict 56% of the variation in recent 30-year population trends. Using these models, future climate change resulting in 4.0ºC global warming was projected to cause declines of at least 25% for more than half of the internationally important populations considered. Nonetheless, most EU Special Protection Areas in the UK were projected to retain species in sufficient abundances to maintain their legal status, and generally sites that are important now were projected to be important in the future. The biological and legal resilience of this network of protected areas is derived from the capacity for turnover in the important species at each site as species’ distributions and abundances alter in response to climate. Current protected areas are therefore predicted to remain important for future conservation in a changing climate.

Making decisions to conserve species under climate change

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2013

Severe impacts on biodiversity are predicted to arise from climate change. These impacts may not be adequately addressed by conventional approaches to conservation. As a result, additional management actions are now being considered. However, there is currently limited guidance to help decision makers choose which set of actions (and in what order) is most appropriate for species that are considered to be vulnerable. Here, we provide a decision framework for the full complement of actions aimed at conserving species under climate change from ongoing conservation in existing refugia through various forms of mobility enhancement to ex situ conservation outside the natural environment. We explicitly recognize that allocation of conservation resources toward particular actions may be governed by factors such as the likelihood of success, cost and likely co-benefits to non-target species in addition to perceived vulnerability of individual species. As such, we use expert judgment of probable tradeoffs in resource allocation to inform the sequential evaluation of proposed management interventions.

A straightforward conceptual approach for evaluating spatial conservation priorities under climate change

Article

Full-text available

Feb 2013

Despite wide evidence of a quickly changing world, systematic conservation planning analyses are usually static assuming that the biodiversity being preserved in sites do not change through time. Here we generated a comprehensive ensemble forecasting experiment for 444 amphibian species inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. Models were based on four methods for modeling ecological niches, and three future climate simulations. Combinations of these models were used to estimate species occurrences. We used species occurrences to optimize the current and future representation of amphibians with different conservation targets based on their geographic range size. We compared spatial priority outcomes (variance of site selection frequency scores) under dynamic conditions, using a bi-dimensional plot in which the relative importance of each site in achieving conservation targets was assessed both for current time and to 2050. Projections for 2050 show that species richness pattern will remain approximately constant, whereas high turnover rates are forecasted. Selection frequency of several locations varied widely, with recurrent sites located at the north and southeast of the biome. As for 2050, spatial priorities concentrate in the northern part of the biome. Thirty-three sites have high priority for conservation as they play an important role now and will still stand as priority locations in 2050. We present a conceptual model for dynamic spatial conservation prioritization that helps to identify priority sites under climate change. We also call attention to sites in which risk of investment is high, and to those that may become interesting options in the future.

The role of forest harvesting and subsequent vegetative regrowth in determining patterns of amphibian habitat use

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2012
FOREST ECOL MANAG

Conservation of forest-dependent amphibians is dependent on finding a balance between timber management and species’ habitat requirements. To examine the effect of short-term vegetative regrowth post-harvesting on amphibian habitat use, we studied the response of eight species (four forest specialists and four habitat generalists) to four forestry treatments (partial harvest, clearcut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, clearcut with CWD retained, and uncut control) over a 6-year period, using replicated experimental treatments in Maine, USA. Forest amphibians showed a strong negative response to clearcutting through the duration of the study, regardless of the presence of CWD, but only during the post-breeding season (i.e., summer). The spring breeding migrations of wood frogs and spotted salamanders to experimental pools were not affected by the forestry treatments. The use of partial cut treatments by forest amphibians differed between animals emerging from experimental pools (i.e., juvenile wood frogs and spotted salamanders), and animals originating from outside the experimental arrays (i.e., adults of all forest species, juvenile wood frogs and spotted salamanders). Animals emerging from our experimental pools showed no difference in the use of control and partial cut treatments, while all the other animals preferred control plots. In addition, we found a modest increase in the use of clearcuts over the 6 years following harvesting by juvenile wood frogs from experimental pools (from an 8-fold difference between forest and clearcut treatments in the first year post-clearcutting to a 3-fold difference during years 3–5). However, this increase was not significantly associated with vegetation regrowth. Forest specialists declined in abundance in all treatments beginning 2–3 years post-disturbance. Despite high yearly fluctuations in abundance, there was a shift in relative abundance towards habitat generalist species, most notably green frog juveniles. Most habitat generalist species were not affected by clearcutting or vegetative regrowth; however, we observed a lower use of clearcut treatments by green frogs starting 3 years post-harvesting, perhaps due to an increase in habitat resistance to movements associated with vegetative regrowth. These general patterns of habitat use were overridden at the local scale by site-specific variation in the use of forestry treatments, most evident in emigrating juvenile wood frogs. From a management standpoint, implementing broad silvicultural prescriptions could be a viable strategy in extensively forested landscapes, but local variation in habitat use has to be acknowledged when managers focus on a limited area.

Heat freezes niche evolution

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2013
ECOL LETT

Climate change is altering phenology and distributions of many species and further changes are projected. Can species physiologically adapt to climate warming? We analyse thermal tolerances of a large number of terrestrial ectotherm (n = 697), endotherm (n = 227) and plant (n = 1816) species worldwide, and show that tolerance to heat is largely conserved across lineages, while tolerance to cold varies between and within species. This pattern, previously documented for ectotherms, is apparent for this group and for endotherms and plants, challenging the longstanding view that physiological tolerances of species change continuously across climatic gradients. An alternative view is proposed in which the thermal component of climatic niches would overlap across species more than expected. We argue that hard physiological boundaries exist that constrain evolution of tolerances of terrestrial organisms to high temperatures. In contrast, evolution of tolerances to cold should be more frequent. One consequence of conservatism of upper thermal tolerances is that estimated niches for cold-adapted species will tend to underestimate their upper thermal limits, thereby potentially inflating assessments of risk from climate change. In contrast, species whose climatic preferences are close to their upper thermal limits will unlikely evolve physiological tolerances to increased heat, thereby being predictably more affected by warming.

Mechanistic models for the spatial spread of species under climate change

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2013

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. The most common methods for predicting the response of biodiversity to changing climate do not explicitly incorporate fundamental evolutionary and ecological processes that determine species responses to changing climate, such as reproduction, dispersal, and adaptation. We provide an overview of an emerging mechanistic spatial theory of species range shifts under climate change. This theoretical framework explicitly defines the ecological processes that contribute to species range shifts via biologically meaningful dispersal, reproductive, and climate envelope parameters. We present methods for estimating the parameters of the model with widely available species occurrence and abundance data and then apply these methods to empirical data for 12 North American butterfly species to illustrate the potential use of the theory for global change biology. The model predicts species persistence in light of current climate change and habitat loss. On average, we estimate that the climate envelopes of our study species are shifting north at a rate of 3.25 +/- 1.36 km/yr (mean +/- SD) and that our study species produce 3.46 +/- 1.39 (mean +/- SD) viable offspring per individual per year. Based on our parameter estimates, we are able to predict the relative risk of our 12 study species for lagging behind changing climate. This theoretical framework improves predictions of global change outcomes by facilitating the development and testing of hypotheses, providing mechanistic predictions of current and future range dynamics, and encouraging the adaptive integration of theory and data. The theory is ripe for future developments such as the incorporation of biotic interactions and evolution of adaptations to novel climatic conditions, and it has the potential to be a catalyst for the development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate losses of biodiversity from global climate change.

Protected Area needs in a changing climate

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2007

Range shifts due to climate change may cause species to move out of protected areas. Climate change could therefore result in species range dynamics that reduce the relevance of current fixed protected areas in future conservation strategies. Here, we apply species distribution modeling and conservation planning tools in three regions (Mexico, the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, and Western Europe) to examine the need for additional protected areas in light of anticipated species range shifts caused by climate change. We set species representation targets and assessed the area required to meet those targets in the present and in the future, under a moderate climate change scenario. Our findings indicate that protected areas can be an important conservation strategy in such a scenario, and that early action may be both more effective and less costly than inaction or delayed action. According to our projections, costs may vary among regions and none of the three areas studied will fully meet all conservation targets, even under a moderate climate change scenario. This suggests that limiting climate change is an essential complement to adding protected areas for conservation of biodiversity.

Adaptive management: Where are we now?

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2012
ENVIRON CONSERV

Adaptive management (AM) emerged in the literature in the mid-1970s in response both to a realization of the extent of uncertainty involved in management, and a frustration with attempts to use modelling to integrate knowledge and make predictions. The term has since become increasingly widely used in scientific articles, policy documents and management plans, but both understanding and application of the concept is mixed. This paper reviews recent literature from conservation and natural resource management journals to assess diversity in how the term is used, highlight ambiguities and consider how the concept might be further assessed. AM is currently being used to describe many different management contexts, scales and locations. Few authors define the term explicitly or describe how it offers a means to improve management outcomes in their specific management context. Many do not adhere to the idea as it was originally conceived, despite citing seminal work. Significant confusion exists over the distinction between active and passive approaches. Over half of the studies reporting to implement AM claimed to have done so successfully, yet none quantified specific benefits, or costs, in relation to possible alternatives. Similarly those studies reporting to assess the approach did so only in relation to specific models and their parameterizations; none assessed the benefits or costs of AM in the field. AM is regarded by some as an effective and well-established framework to support the management of natural resources, yet by others as a concept difficult to realize and fraught with implementation challenges; neither of these observations is wholly accurate. From a scientific and technical perspective many practical questions remain; in particular real-world assessments of the value of experimentation within a management framework, as well as of identified challenges and pathologies, are needed. Further discussion and systematic assessment of the approach is required, together with greater attention to its definition and description, enabling the assessment of new approaches to managing uncertainty, and AM itself.

Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity: Defining areas that promote species persistence and ecosystem resilience in the face of global climate change,

Book

Full-text available

May 2013

We are currently facing the likelihood of severe climate change before the close of the century. In the face of such a global driver of species loss, we urgently need to identify refugia that will shelter species from the worst impacts of climate change. This will be a critical component of successful conservation and management of our biodiversity. Despite this, little is known about how best to identify refugia in the landscape, and the practical strategies needed to identify, protect and expand refugia are just beginning to be developed. Identifying refugia that will protect most species, or large numbers of species, remains a complex and daunting endeavour due to the large variations in climatic and biotic requirements of species. A first step to identifying refugia for biodiversity across Australia is to locate the areas which show the least change into the future (i.e. the most environmentally stable), particularly along axes of temperature and precipitation. The second and crucial step is to identify the areas that will retain most of their biodiversity and provide opportunities for additional species to relocate to into the future. Using these approaches in this project, we take the first steps to identify refugial areas across the Australian continent under contemporary climate change scenarios. We find that the southern and eastern parts of the continent contain refugia that many species will retreat to over the next 75 years, but that the current reserve system may be inadequate to allow species to shift to and persist in these areas. Disturbingly, we also find that there is a large portion of the Australian vertebrate community for which adequate natural refugia do not appear to exist. Fine-scaled regional analyses will be required to clarify these broad findings, and we examine a number of case studies demonstrating how these regional analyses might best proceed. Lessons learnt across the multiple techniques employed in this study include: 1. High elevation areas are important refugia. 2. Tasmania and the east coast of mainland Australia contain most of the key areas for refugia into the future. 3. Results are dependent on which objectives, techniques, taxonomic groups and climate scenarios are used.

Assisted colonization: Integrating conservation strategies in the face of climate change

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2011
BIOL CONSERV

a b s t r a c t Global climate change poses an immense challenge for conservation biologists seeking to mitigate impacts to species and ecosystems. Species persistence will depend on geographic range shifts or adap-tation in response to warming patterns as novel climates and community assemblages arise. Assisted col-onization has been proposed as a method for addressing these challenges. This technique, which consists of transporting species to a new range that is predicted to be favorable for persistence under future climate scenarios, has become the subject of controversy and discussion in the conservation community due to its highly manipulative nature, questions about widespread feasibility, and uncertainty associated with the likelihood of translocated species becoming invasive. We reviewed the discussion and criticism associated with assisted colonization and sought to identify other conservation techniques that also dis-play potential to promote the colonization and adaptation of species in response to climate change. We propose an integrated conservation strategy that includes management for habitat connectivity, conser-vation genetics, and when necessary, assisted colonization of species that are still unable to shift their ranges even given implementation of the above standard conservation approaches. We argue that this integrated approach will facilitate persistence for a larger proportion of species than is possible by solely using assisted colonization. Furthermore, a multi-faceted approach will likely reduce the uncertainty of conservation outcomes and will become increasingly necessary for conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate.

Protected Areas act as establishment centres for species colonizing the UK

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2013
Proc Biol Sci

Protected area (PA) networks will remain valuable for conservation, as the global environment changes, if they facilitate the colonization of new regions by species that are shifting their geographical ranges. We tested the extent to which wetland bird species colonizing the UK since 1960 have exploited PAs. Colonization commenced in a PA for all six species that established permanent (greater than 10 years) breeding populations in the UK during this period. Subsequently, birds started to breed outside as well as inside PAs: the colonizing species showing declining fractions of breeding within PAs over time, a trend not seen in already-resident species. PAs were valuable as 'landing pads' for range-shifting species first arriving in a new region, and then as 'establishment centres' from which viable populations spread. Given future projections of range change across a broad range of taxonomic groups, this role for PAs can be expected to become increasingly important.

Connectivity of prairie dog colonies in an altered landscape: Inferences from analysis of microsatellite DNA variation

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2012
CONSERV GENET

Connectivity of populations influences the degree to which species maintain genetic diversity and persist despite local extinctions. Natural landscape features are known to influence connectivity, but global anthropogenic landscape change underscores the importance of quantifying how human-modified landscapes disrupt connectivity of natural populations. Grasslands of western North America have experienced extensive habitat alteration, fragmenting populations of species such as black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). Population sizes and the geographic range of prairie dogs have been declining for over a century due to habitat loss, disease, and eradication efforts. In many places, prairie dogs have persisted in the face of emerging urban landscapes that carve habitat into smaller and smaller fragments separated by uninhabitable areas. In extreme cases, prairie dog colonies are completely bounded by urbanization. Connectivity is particularly important for prairie dogs because colonies suffer high probabilities of extirpation by plague, and dispersal permits recolonization. Here we explore connectivity of prairie dog populations using analyses of 11 microsatellite loci for 9 prairie dog colonies spanning the fragmented landscape of Boulder County, Colorado. Isolation-by-resistance modeling suggests that wetlands and high intensity urbanization limit movement of prairie dogs. However, prairie dogs appear to move moderately well through low intensity development (including roads) and freely through cropland and grassland. Additionally, there is a marked decline in gene flow between colonies with increasing geographic distance, indicating isolation by distance even in an altered landscape. Our results suggest that prairie dog colonies retain some connectivity despite fragmentation by urbanization and agricultural development.

Facilitating climate‐change‐induced range shifts across continental land‐use barriers

Abstract

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