It has been shown that the PV module price will most likely to be halved again and BoS price will decrease by more than 35% by 2030, leading to an overall PV system CAPEX reduction of about 45%. It must be noted that this development does not require any major technology breakthroughs but is a natural cause from continuing efforts in reducing materials use, impoving efficiency and developing manufacturing processes. At the same time, PV system OPEX is expected to decrease by 30%. PV LCOE will decrease by 30-50% from 2014 to 2030, depending on the volume growth and learning rate. Cost of capital is by far more significant than CAPEX or OPEX: a 8% percentage point increase in real WACC will double the LCOE. It is the most urgent task for the solar industry to improve the bankability of PV, but at the same time for the policy makers to create a stable environment for investments, in order to decrease the cost of capital and thus the LCOE of PV.
Residential and commercial PV electricity is already competitive with retail market electricity in all selected countries. Parity with wholesale market electricity will be reached by 2030 almost everywhere. There is every reason to believe that this development will continue after 2030 because there is still a huge improvement potential in various PV technologies. Figure 13 gives the PV LCOE for a 1 p ground-mounted system until 2050 assuming that the annual market would stay at the 200 GWp level, learning rate at 20%, and module efficiency improves 0.4 percentage points per year from 2030 to 2050. This would mean that global cumulative PV capacity would be 5700 GWp in 2050 and average module efficiency about 30%. PV system price would decrease to about third from 2014 and OPEX is assumed to be halved. It can be seen that in Spain the LCOE in 2050 would be about 20 €/MWh and in the UK and Sweden below 40 €/MWh with a 5% real WACC, or about 60% less in 2050 compared with 2014. It can be concluded that PV will probably be the cheapest form of electricity generation in most countries in the coming decades.