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Pakistan Journal of Science (Vol. 65 No. 2 June, 2013)
263
IMPACT EVALUATION OF DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS - A CASE STUDY OF
PROJECT “DEVELOPMENT OF SERICULTURE ACTIVITIES IN PUNJAB”
S. Mubin, M. Ahmed, G. Mubin* and M. A. Majeed**
Directorate General of Monitoring and Evaluation, Planning & Development Department
*PEF, Govt. of Punjab
**Lahore Leads University, Lahore
ABSTRACT: Sericulture is a short gestated (40 days) and labor intensive cottage industry which
can be helpful to alleviate poverty in the rural areas. In Punjab province of Pakistan, sericulture
activities were introduced under Forest Department, Govt. of Punjab since 1975. In 2006, a project
titled “Development of Sericulture Activities in Punjab” was initiated with a cost of Rs. 66.073 million
for the duration of 48 months to strengthen the already existing setup and to promote the sericulture
activities in the rural areas of Punjab. The project envisaged distribution of silk seed packets at
subsidized cost, along with necessary training to jobless and marginalized rural people to engage them
in the silkworm rearing practices. Mulberry nurseries (total 1,380 acres) were also raised at the project
area locations on the state and private lands to provide mulberry leaves to the silk rearing farmers at a
nominal cost. Directorate General of Monitoring and Evaluation (DGM&E) conducted an ex-post
evaluation of the project to check impact on the targeted stakeholders (rural public). A well structured
instrument was designed to collect data from randomly selected households from these locations. Data
was collected as per designed survey plan. The data was analyzed by using Statistical Package of
Social Sciences (SPSS 15.00) and conclusion and recommendations were drawn. The relationship
among these variables was studied using appropriate statistical techniques. Results and
recommendations are shared in the last section of the paper.
Key words: Socio-economic development, Sericulture, Punjab (Pakistan), Impact Evaluation.
INTRODUCTION
Systematic Evaluation of Development projects
and programs was conceived and formulized back from
1960s till date by donor agencies to assess the projects
performance and impacts. Similarly, Government of the
Punjab established a full-fledged Directorate in 2008 to
monitor and evaluate ongoing and completed
development projects to ensure that all the objectives
must be accomplished and standard operating procedures
(SOPs) have been met. For evaluation purposes, after
completion of project, Forest Department submitted PC-
IV of this project on October 2010. Initially approved
cost of this project was Rs. 62.632 million which was
subsequently revised to Rs. 66.073 million with a
gestation period of 48 months. The total planned cost
included Capital and Revenue components of Rs. 15.145
million and 50.928 million respectively. Year wise
financial phasing of the project showing 5%, 47% 33%
and 15% of total project cost for the year 2006-07, 2007-
08, 2008-09 and 2009-10 respectively.
The practice of raising silkworm is known as
sericulture. The discovery of silk production dates to
about 2700 B.C. Sericulture is one of the most important
cottage industries in a number of countries like China,
Japan, India, Korea, Russia, Italy and France. Apart from
silk, there are several other by-products from sericulture
and mori culture activities e.g. herbal medicine,
handmade twigs products, fodder for cattle, for soil
preservation. Sericulture development provides
opportunities to improve the living standards of people in
the rural area in developing countries. In Pakistan,
sericulture industry has limited growth mainly due to
poor quality of mulberry leaves and silk seed. Thus the
cultivation of mulberry is one of the most important
factors in the production of silkworm eggs, rearing of
silkworm cocoons and on the whole in the entire
operation of sericulture.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Hussain et al. (2010) explored that availability
of silkworms and mulberries is related to climate and
ecological conditions (rainfall, temperature, relative
humidity, soil quality, etc.). According to altitude and
longitude, sericulture is practiced in regions between the
300 and the 350 northern latitude in humid to sub humid
tropics. The large genetic variability concerning
mulberries as well as silkworms opens up many
possibilities for breeding and selection. Pakistan has, in
some area very favorable climate for rearing of
sericulture. Efforts have been made in the past to promote
sericulture activities in Punjab by the Agriculture and
Forestry Department from 1975 but no promising results
Pakistan Journal of Science (Vol. 65 No. 2 June, 2013)
264
have been obtained. Not much research has been
conducted in Pakistan for development and evaluation of
sericulture activities even though there is are full fledge
sericulture research center established in Lahore,
Khushab and Murree under admin control of Forest
Department for the production of better quality of silk
seed which produce cocoon free from disease to generate
high volume of silk. Hussain et al. (2010) worked for the
Evaluation of genetic potential of inbred pure lines of
silkworm for breeding and cocoon production in
Pakistan. The main idea of this paper is to increase the
production of best cocoons in quality and quantity for a
high yielding cocoon crop. The information yield in this
study would be useful for future breeding programs and
commercial raising of sericulture activities in Punjab.
Further the data analyzed by using the evaluation index
method each breed was maintained in three replications.
Despite of these efforts success was not attained in
sericulture and mori culture activities in Punjab. For this
purpose a development project was initiated by Forest
department, Government of the Punjab to strength the
activities of sericulture in the province to change the
socio-economic conditions of rural folk. After
completion, project was submitted to DGM&E for
evaluation. It was very difficult to design evaluation as
similar work had not been done in Pakistan.
A similar Nature of project was evaluated in
Thailand by Robert (1975) and a comprehensive report
titled “Evaluation and Design of Sericulture Project in
Public Welfare Land Settlements (Thailand)” was
prepared. In evaluation report he concluded that the
project increased the income of bivoltine sericulture
farmers and reelers from sericulture and increases in the
production of quality raw silk (above 2A level). In
addition, positive impacts beyond the project area were
observed.
Evaluation team of DGM&E took guidance
from above referred material while designing an
evaluation methodology to know how much the project
under discussion has uplifted the socio-economic
conditions of the rural poor of Punjab province of
Pakistan?. It was also tried to know through instrument
(questionnaire) how much sericulture has developed in
Punjab after this intervention and why previous efforts in
this regards were not fruitful? Evaluation team was also
supposed to know about the pros and cons of sericulture
activities in Punjab due to which this idea has not been
successful in Pakistan; however, it is fairly working in
other countries of similar topography, culture and
climate.
Research Methodology: Keeping in view the importance
of the project’s impact, the evaluation team mainly
focused on the impact evaluation of the project.
1. Impact Evaluation: Measuring the change in
the lives of beneficiaries after completion of this project.
To measure the impact of the project activities
on the project beneficiaries different key indicators were
defined to collect the information which helps to measure
the impact of the sericulture activities on farmer’s
income, education and spending etc. The detailed list of
defined impact assessment indicators is given in Table-1.
Table 1: Indicators of Impact Assessment
Impact Indicators
Description
Age & Gender
%age of Male or Female, age of beneficiary
Education
The education level of beneficiaries
Motivation for silk rearing
The reason due to which beneficiary is involved in silk rearing activities
Experience of Silk rearing
For how many tears beneficiary is involved in Silk rearing?
Level of Income
Monthly income of the families of beneficiaries in Pak Rupees
Availability of Silk Seed
Satisfaction of beneficiaries in availability to silk seeds
Quality of Silk seed
Satisfaction of beneficiaries on the quality of silk seeds
Availability of food (Mulberry
Leaves)
Satisfaction of beneficiaries in availability of food (Millbury Leaves) for the silk
worms and any difficulty faced by the beneficiaries in obtaining food for silk
worms
Training & Quality of Training
No. of and quality of the trainings provided to the farmers for silk rearing
Production & Quality of
Production
Production (quality and quantity) of cocoons by beneficiaries.
Income Generated through
sericulture
Level of income generation through sericulture activities.
Use of Income Generated
through Sericulture
What are the needs on which income was utilized?
Data Collection: A comprehensive statistical study was
carried out to collect the data from the sericulture farmers/ households involved in silkworm rearing from
six districts of Punjab i.e. Kasur, Khushab, M.B. Din,
Pakistan Journal of Science (Vol. 65 No. 2 June, 2013)
265
Sahiwal, Sargodha, T.T. Singh. Simple Random
Sampling was used to approach the selected households
in six districts of the Punjab. Total sample of 1000
questionnaire were filled from the selected districts.
Table-2 displays the distribution of data collection
through questionnaire in selected districts which is
proportionally based on the number of beneficiaries in
each district.
Table-2: District Wise Detail of Sample Questionnaire
Districts
Frequency
Percent
Valid
Percent
Cumulative
Percent
Kasur
390
39
39%
39
Khushab
100
10
10%
49
M.B. Din
160
16
16%
65
Sahiwal
190
19
19%
84
T.T. Singh
70
7
7%
93
Total
1000
100.0
100.0
100.0
Data analysis: Analysis of the data was made in two
perspective i.e. (i) Descriptive nature and (ii) Inferential
nature. The analysis has been made based on the data
obtained from beneficiaries on questionnaires filled from
six districts of Punjab. The data collected has been
analyzed using Statistical Package of Social Sciences
(SPSS 15.00).For descriptive analysis of the data M.S
Excel graphs have been used to demonstrate the trends
wherever applicable. Relationship among these variables
is studied using appropriate statistical techniques like
cross tabulation, percentages, averages and trend
analysis.
While on the other hand for inferential analysis
of the data following chi-square test statistics have been
used to test the hypothesis about the different indicators.
i.e.
n
BA
e
e
eo
ji
ij
r
i
c
jij
ijij
))((
)(
1 1
2
2
it follows chi-square distribution under null hypothesis
with (r-1)(c-1) degrees of freedom.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Descriptive Analysis: The descriptive results for key
indicators have been shown in the ensuing paragraphs.
i. Gender, Age, and Education Level: Based on the
analysis, it was observed that mostly sericulture farmers
were women. About 76% of randomized respondents of
survey were women. Most of the respondents were the
head of the household (71 percent). Silk rearing activities
are usually done by females and male do their jobsfor
additional source of livelihood. Mean of age of
respondent was 37.04 years, ranging from 14 to 80 years.
44 percent of the respondents were found between age
from 14 to 33 both inclusive. 45 percent of the
respondents were found between age from 34 to 53 and 6
percent of the respondents between age of 54 to 73 both
inclusive. Only 2 percent respondents involved in silk
seed rearing were illiterate. 23 percent and 30 percent of
respondents involved in silk rearing were having primary
and middle school education level respectively. 15
percent of respondents involved in silk rearing were
having metric (10th grade) education level and 5 percent
of respondents were those having educational
qualification equivalent to intermediate level.
ii. Motivation for Silk Rearing: As much as86 percent
opined that they were involved in silk rearing for income
generation to have better economic benefit by using
domestic efforts collectively. However, 14 percent of
respondents opined various other motivation factors such
as learning and skill development, loan payments, and
personal interest and habit etc were the main factor to
motivate them for silk rearing.
iii. Experience of Silk Rearing: With reference to the
experiences in silkworm rearing, 58 percent of the
respondents were involved in silk rearing for more than
five years. However, 14 percent of the respondents were
those who were having two years of experience and only
8 percent were having one year or less experience. This
shows failure of the Sericulture department to attract
more silk rearing farmers in recent years.
iv. Income Level: Income level was compared before
and after the intervention. Before the start of intervention,
68.7 percent of the respondents were falling in the
bracket of less than or equal to Rs. 6,000 per month. 16
percent of the respondents were having monthly income
equivalent to Rs. 8,000 whereas, only 15 percent
respondents were those having monthly income Rs.
10,000 or above. However, after the intervention, 44.6
percent of the target respondents were having income less
than or equal to Rs. 6,000 per month h. 30.7 percent of
the respondents were having monthly income equivalent
to Rs. 8,000, whereas, 24.7 percent respondents were
those having monthly income Rs. 10,000 or above i.e.
more than 116.5 US dollars per month. Though in
absolute dollar value their income has been dropped as
Pak rupee has devaluated in terms of Pak rupees,
intervention has created a good impact in terms of
income level.
v. Availability of Silk Seed: It was objective of the
evaluation team to find that list of beneficiaries provided
by Forest Department is correct and all the beneficiaries
of the scheme got the silk seed from Forest Department.
Based on the analysis, 97 percent of the farmers got the
silk seeds from the Forest Department and 3 percent were
those which were never involved in sericulture activities.
Pakistan Journal of Science (Vol. 65 No. 2 June, 2013)
266
Almost all of the respondents of the survey purchased
one silk seed packet at the subsidized cost of Rs. 350/bag.
vi. Quality of Silk Seed: Almost 44 percent said that the
quality of seed was good. 46 percent of the respondents
were in view that the Forest Department provided
average quality of silk seed and it didn’t produce silk
what they were expecting. However, 10 percent of
respondents told that the quality of silk seed was
extremely poor and they were not able to rear silk seed
despite of their hardship and labor and all silk worms
were died due to low disease resistance.
vii. Availability of Food for Silkworms: A 12% of the
responding farmers were those which were arranging
mulberry leaves (food for silkworms) by their own
sources while the remaining were purchasing it from the
Forest Department at a permit fee of Rs. 150. Important
finding of the study is that the 38 percent of the farmers’
claimed that they found difficulties and hindrance by the
officials of the Forest Department in getting mulberry
leaves. However, 63 percent of the respondents claimed
that they found no difficulty in getting mulberry leaves
from Forest Department.
viii. Training of the Farmers regarding Sericulture
activities and Quality of Training: A 63 percent of the
respondents of the survey were trained during the project
period. About 85 percent of the trained farmers were
satisfied with the quality of the training provided by the
department whereas, 10 percents respondents were not
satisfied by the training provided by the representative of
Forest Department, whereas, 5 percent didn’t respond to
this question.
ix. Production and Quality of Production: About 93.6
percent of the respondents were successfully able to
produce silk cocoon from seeds, whereas 6.4 percent
failed to rear or complete the process to produce final
product i.e. silk. Production wise complete breakup of
farmers is shown in table3.
Table-3: Descriptive Analysis of Production of
Cocoons
Variable
N
Percentage
Remarks
Quantity of Cocoon produced (Kgs)
0 kg
64
6.4
Mini
Produced=0
Maxi
Produced
40 kg or
more.
Average
Weighted
Production
= 22kg
Up to 10 kg
67
6.7
Up to 15 kg
101
10.1
Up to 20 kg
241
24.1
Up to 25 kg
288
28.8
Up to 30 kg
142
14.2
Up to 35 kg
62
6.2
40 kg and more
35
3.5
x. Income Generated through Sericulture: Responding
to the question of per kg sale of cocoon, minimum sale
price of cocoon was found in survey was Rs. 160 and
maximum selling price was Rs. 350. By average,
respondents were selling cocoon @ Rs. 290/- per kg. 63
percent of the respondents sold cocoon in the market,
whereas, 37 percent of respondents sold their cocoon to
the special buyers (middle men) in their respective
villages as shown in table 4.
Table-4: Descriptive Analysis to per kg selling of
cocoons by farmers
Variable
N
Percentage
Remarks
Price at which Cocoon Sold
Rs. 160
54
5.4
Average
Weighted
Price per
kg = Rs.
290
Rs. 250
103
10.3
Rs. 275
208
20.8
Rs. 290
459
45.9
Rs. 300
91
9.1
Rs. 325
41
4.1
Rs. 350
44
4.4
xi. Use of Income Generation through Sericulture:
Most of the respondents (95%) were of the view that
sericulture activities have a significant impact on family
income, these families utilize the income generated
through these activities on clearing loans, purchase of
assets, education of their children, sustaining livings,
marriages of their children and buying cattle’s etc as
shown in table 5.
Table-5: Descriptive Analysis to assess Impact of
Sericulture Activities on Family Income
Variable
N
Percentage
Remarks
Purposes of Income
To Clear Loan
60
6
To Buy Cattle
99
9.9
For Education of
Children
39
3.9
To Sustain Living
530
53
For Marriages of
Children
272
27.2
xii. Economic return of Sericulture:
Investment (for forty days)
Cost of Silk Seed Packet = Rs. 350
Cost of forty days labor (2 hours per day) = 50*
2*40 = Rs. 4,000
Mulberry leaves (food for worms)
= Rs. 300
Total Investment = Rs 4,650
Return after 40 days: Return @ 22 kg * 290 (average
production * average selling price) = Rs. 6,380
Pakistan Journal of Science (Vol. 65 No. 2 June, 2013)
267
Based on above analysis, return of sericulture
activities is about 37% higher than its investment.
Inferential Analysis: This inferential analysis was
developed on the basis of prior knowledge vis-a-vis
association of factors involved in sericulture activities
e.g. education of the beneficiaries (farmers), income of
the households/farmers, training of farmers from Forest
Department and production level of Cocoon. The null
hypotheses (Ho) using p<= 0.10 was determined as
under:
There exists a positive association between
education of the farmer and production level of Cocoon;
There exist a positive association between the
education and income of the farmer; and
There exist a positive association between
training of the farmer from Forest Department and
production level of Cocoon.
The alternate hypothesis H1 was assumed that
there does not exist any association between these
factors. The parameters were tested using a well known
non-parametric chi-square test statistics. The calculated
values of chi-square statistics for first two hypotheses
were χ2 = 8.644 with 2 degrees and χ2 = 17.713 with 9
degrees respectively. The calculated p-vales were p =
0.013 and p = 0.60 respectively indicated that at 10%
level of significant there exist a significant statistical
association between education of the farmer &
production level of Cocoon and education and in come of
the farmer. While on the other hand for third hypothesis
the calculated value of chi-square statistics were χ2 =
0.399 with 2 degrees with p-value p = 0.844 indicated
that insignificant relationship between training of the
farmer and production level of cocoon may illustrate low
quality training delivered by officials under the project.
Recommendations
1. Sericulture activities are useful for income
generation to marginalize and poor people of rural
areas of Punjab. Its economic return is higher than
its investment.
2. Forest department should try to improve the
quality of silk seed.
3. Forest department should invest more in terms of
time and costs to publicize the idea/mechanism of
silk rearing to attract new farmers and bring them
in the network.
4. Sericulture activities may be used as tool for
women development and empowerment in rural
areas of Punjab.
5. Forest department should improve the mechanism
for distribution of silk seed packet to ensure fair
distribution of all silk packets to beneficiaries.
6. For the better quality of silk, continuous supply of
food is very important. It has been observed during
site visits that mulberry leaves were not
abundantly available for farmers for silk rearing.
Forest department should take necessary action to
properly maintain already existing mulberry
plantation to make mulberry leaves available to the
silk rearing farmers.
7. Forest department may reduce the cost of silk seed
packet from Rs. 350/- to between Rs. 50/- to 100/
to exploit the true concept of sustainable economic
development, so that more marginalized people
can be broughtin the network of sericulture
farmers to rear more packets of silk seed.
8. Particularly, in this type and scale of sericulture
activities in the country, the role of good training
cannot be denied. It is, therefore, strongly
recommended to initiate micro level training with
the participation of local targeted community.
Moreover, trainers must be trained to transfer
knowledge efficiently and effectively.
9. For this project, it is very difficult to continue
M&E activities due to non availability of project
data and information about project beneficiaries.
Department should maintain data base of silk
rearing farmers (beneficiaries) in soft as well as
hard form with pre-requisite information e.g.
phone numbers (if available), complete address
with location map and photographs of farmers (if
applicable with the consent of farmer). Preferably,
a complete file to be prepared for each packet for
record and follow-ups. This approach has been
witnessed successful in other social sector
projects.
10. Department should publicizeproperly about the
sericulture and related activities, in print and
electronic media on continual basis. Those
farmerswho did not have any knowledge of
sericulture of a particular location should gathered
into single group and department nominate the
experienced farmer as a leader of the group who
helps the new farmers and discuss their
experiences and problems with the newly entered
farmer in sericulture activities.
11. The inferential analysis indicated the positive
association between production of Cocoon and
education of the farmers i.e. more the education
level of the farmers, higher the production rate of
cocoon. Therefore, it is recommended to involve
more educated people/farmers in the silk rearing
activities for better quality and quantity of silk.
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