ArticlePDF Available

Evidence of resilience to past climate change in Southwest Asia: Early farming communities and the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events


Abstract and Figures

Climate change is often cited as a major factor in social change. The so-called 8.2 ka event was one of the most pronounced and abrupt Holocene cold and arid events. The 9.2 ka event was similar, albeit of a smaller magnitude. Both events affected the Northern Hemisphere climate and caused cooling and aridification in Southwest Asia. Yet, the impacts of the 8.2 and 9.2 ka events on early farming communities in this region are not well understood. Current hypotheses for an effect of the 8.2 ka event vary from large-scale site abandonment and migration (including the Neolithisation of Europe) to continuation of occupation and local adaptation, while impacts of the 9.2 ka have not previously been systematically studied. In this paper, we present a thorough assessment of available, quality-checked radiocarbon (14C) dates for sites from Southwest Asia covering the time interval between 9500 and 7500 cal BP, which we interpret in combination with archaeological evidence. In this way, the synchronicity between changes observed in the archaeological record and the rapid climate events is tested. It is shown that there is no evidence for a simultaneous and widespread collapse, large-scale site abandonment, or migration at the time of the events. However, there are indications for local adaptation. We conclude that early farming communities were resilient to the abrupt, severe climate changes at 9250 and 8200 cal BP.
Content may be subject to copyright.
Author's Original Manuscript - Preprint
This is an Author's Revised Manuscript accepted by Quaternary Science Reviews on
19/06/2015 and published online on 02/07/2015.
Flohr, P., Fleitmann, D., Matthews, R., Matthews, W., Black. S. 2015. Evidence of
resilience to past climate change in Southwest Asia: Early farming communities and
the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events. Quaternary Science Reviews,
The final, published version of this paper can be downloaded from:
Evidence of resilience to past climate change in Southwest Asia: Early farming
communities and the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events
Pascal Flohr1,2,*, Dominik Fleitmann1,2, Roger Matthews1,2, Wendy Matthews1,2, Stuart
1University of Reading, Department of Archaeology
2University of Reading, Centre for Past Climate Change
*Corresponding author. Address: University of Reading, Department of Archaeology,
Whiteknights, P.O. Box 227, Reading, RG6 6AB, United Kingdom. E-mail: Phone: +44 (0) 118 378 7981
Climate change is often cited as a major factor in social change. The so-called 8.2 ka event
was one of the most pronounced and abrupt Holocene cold and arid events. The 9.2 ka
event was similar, albeit of a smaller magnitude. Both events affected the Northern
Hemisphere climate and caused cooling and aridification in Southwest Asia. Yet, the impacts
of the 8.2 and 9.2 ka events on early farming communities in this region are not well
understood. Current hypotheses for an effect of the 8.2 ka event vary from large-scale site
abandonment and migration (including the Neolithisation of Europe) to continuation of
occupation and local adaptation, while impacts of the 9.2 ka have not previously been
systematically studied. In this paper, we present a thorough assessment of available, quality-
checked radiocarbon (14C) dates for sites from Southwest Asia covering the time interval
between 9500 and 7500 cal BP, which we interpret in combination with archaeological
evidence. In this way, the synchronicity between changes observed in the archaeological
record and the rapid climate events is tested. It is shown that there is no evidence for a
simultaneous and widespread collapse, large-scale site abandonment, or migration at the
time of the events. However, there are indications for local adaptation. We conclude that
early farming communities were resilient to the abrupt, severe climate changes at 9250 and
8200 cal BP.
Key words
climate and society; Southwest Asia; Neolithic; 8.2 ka event; 9.2 ka event; resilience
We assess the impacts of the 9.2 and 8.2 ka BP climate events on Southwest Asian
farming communities
We use over 3000 quality-checked 14C-dates in combination with archaeological
No large-scale collapse/decline or migration took place at around 9250 or 8200 cal
There is some evidence for local adaptation, but not at all sites
Early farming communities in Southwest Asia were resilient to rapid climate change
Main text
1 Introduction
Climate is frequently cited as a main factor in socio-economic change, migration, and even
collapse of past societies (e.g. deMenocal, 2001). This is relevant globally, but especially so
in semi-arid regions like Southwest Asia (Kelley et al., 2015), where water is one of the key-
resources for cultural activity. In this region, for example the introduction of agriculture has
been linked to the cold and arid Younger Dryas and the onset of the more favourable
Holocene (Abbo et al., 2010; Bar-Yosef and Belfer-Cohen, 2002; Belfer-Cohen and Goring-
Morris, 2011). Increased aridity has also been argued to have contributed to the ‘collapse’ of
the Akkadian empire at around 4200 cal BP
(Weiss et al., 1993) and the end of the Late
Bronze Age around 3200 cal BP (Kaniewski et al., 2013). Furthermore, a series of droughts
has been claimed to be one of the factors in inciting the ongoing conflict in Syria (Gleick,
2014; Kelley et al., 2015), providing additional evidence that studying past societal
adaptations to abrupt climate events can provide important clues on the factors and
dynamics leading to societal changes.
One of the most pronounced and abrupt climatic events of the Holocene occurred
around 8200 years ago (the ‘8.2 ka event’, Alley et al., 1997). Numerous proxy data as well
as climate models indicate colder and more arid conditions throughout the Northern
Hemisphere (Alley and Ágústsdóttir, 2005). A similar event, albeit of a smaller magnitude,
occurred at around 9250 cal BP (Fleitmann et al., 2008). As in both cases climatic change
occurred within less than a decade, such events are expected to have had a large impact on
contemporaneous societies. In contradiction to gradual climate change, it would be much
harder to adapt to such rapid events.
PPNB: Pre-Pottery Neolithic B period; PPNC: Pre-Pottery Neolithic C period; FPPNB: final PPNB; PN: Pottery
Neolithic, equivalent of Late Neolithic; SPP: summed probability plot.
All dates in this manuscript are in calibrated BP (calendar years), in which BP refers to Before Present, with
the ‘present’ at 1950. We specifically use “cal BP” and not “BP” to avoid confusion between calibrated
(calendar year) dates and uncalibrated 14C dates, which are in the literature often indicated by BP or bp. U-
series dates, for example used in speleothem dating, are calculated from a different ‘present’ point, but in this
paper we present all dates so that they count back from 1950.
The effects of the 8.2 ka event on societies in Southwest Asia are under discussion,
and interpretations vary from collapse and abandonment of sites (Staubwasser and Weiss,
2006; Weninger et al., 2006), large-scale migration (Weninger et al., 2006), to continuation
of occupation (van der Plicht et al., 2011) (see section 1.1). However, these current
interpretations are either based on rather loose correlations, the use of 14C-dates without
rigorous quality-check, or studies of single sites. Clearly, a more critical approach is needed,
and while detailed studies of single sites (e.g. van der Plicht et al., 2011) are a key resource,
a holistic interpretation is now required. Moreover, effects of the 9.2 ka event have not yet
been systematically assessed. This research therefore aims at assessing the impact of the
9.2 ka and 8.2 ka climate events on societies in Southwest Asia by evaluating dating
evidence in combination with archaeological data. As precise dating is key, the focus is on
absolute dating evidence. Therefore this research, while building on earlier studies
(Weninger et al., 2006, 2014), aims to significantly improve on these by (1) taking into
account all Southwest Asian 14C-dated sites contemporaneous with the 9.2 and 8.2 ka
events, but also including sites from directly preceding and post-dating periods; (2)
rigorously quality-checking 14C-dates; and (3) evaluating archaeological evidence (e.g. is
there evidence for continuity or change based on stratigraphy, material culture, or
environmental remains?). The combination of taking into account dating evidence and
archaeological evidence is essential, as neither can give a full answer on its own. This paper
is the first to systematically investigate any impacts of the 9.2 ka event on Southwest Asian
society, and expands on previous studies by including eastern regions of Southwest Asia,
such as Iran.
1.1 Potential effects of the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events
Several studies have investigated the cultural effects of the 8.2 ka event. In western
Scotland, a decrease in ‘activity events’ around 8200 cal BP may indicate a significant drop
in population (Wicks and Mithen, 2014). In Northeastern Spain, the most arid part of the
Ebro Basin was potentially abandoned around this time (Gonzalez-Samperiz et al., 2009).
Other studies indicate an effect on Late Mesolithic settlement distribution and subsistence on
the Iberian Peninsula (Fernandez Lopez de Pablo and Gomez Puche, 2009; Fernandez
Lopez de Pablo and Jochim, 2010), social, technological, and settlement changes in various
places in Europe (Gehlen and Schön, 2005), and occupation hiatuses at sites in the Danube
Iron Gates region (Bonsall et al., 2002).
In Southwest Asia, the 8.2 ka event has been linked to the apparent decrease in
numbers of (large) sites after the Pre-Pottery Neolithic B (PPNB) period in the Southern
Levant area, including the abandonment of sites like Jericho and the first phase of
settlement at ‘Ain Ghazal (Berger and Guilaine, 2009; Migowski et al., 2006; Staubwasser
and Weiss, 2006; Weiss and Bradley, 2001; Weninger et al., 2009). It has also been
postulated that in Northern Mesopotamia ‘Hassuna’ style villages with rain-fed farming
‘collapsed’ and that the first occupation of Southern Mesopotamian villages practicing
irrigation occurred at this time (Staubwasser and Weiss, 2006). Hiatuses in occupation at
sites like Yumuktepe in Southern Turkey and Sabi Abyad in northern Syria and
abandonment of sites at Cyprus have also been associated with the 8.2 ka event (Weninger
et al., 2006, 2009, 2014).
The spread of the Neolithic into Western Turkey and into Europe has been linked to
the 8.2 ka event as well (Weninger et al., 2006, 2009). While it has since been shown that
settlements occurred before 8200 cal BP in Western Anatolia, Greece and the Balkans
(Brami, 2014; Budja, 2007; Düring, 2013; Weninger et al., 2014), researchers still link the 8.2
ka event to some aspects or some regions of the Neolithisation of Europe (Berger and
Guilaine, 2009; Gronenborn, 2009; Özdoğan, 2011; Pross et al., 2009). Budja (2007), for
example, argues that the spread of the Neolithic in Southeast Europe was hampered by the
deteriorating climate and floods (see also Bonsall et al., 2002). Also the eastward expansion
of the Neolithic, into Central and Eastern Iran, and especially in the Southern Zagros
province of Fars, may be contemporaneous with the 8.2 ka event (Weeks et al., 2006;
Weeks, 2013).
At archaeological sites where occupation continued throughout the 8.2 ka event,
socio-economic changes have been observed. At Çatalhöyük in Central Turkey, the shift of
occupation from the east to the west mound along with social and economic changes, such
as a looser settlement lay-out, were observed around this time (Biehl, 2012; Weninger et al.,
2006; but see Düring, 2013, and below). At Tell Sabi Abyad in Northern Syria, changes in
settlement location within the site, architecture, animal husbandry practices, pottery styles,
forms and decoration, and the introduction of stamp seals were contemporaneous with the
climatic change (Akkermans et al., 2006, 2010; van der Plicht et al., 2011). In the Southern
Zagros, cultural changes (the more mobile ‘Mushki’ during the event, and ‘Jari’ farming
villages after) may also be associated with the 8.2 ka event (Nishiaki, 2010).
In contrast to the 8.2 ka event, the rapid climate change around 9250 cal BP has only
infrequently been linked to social change. The end of Early Mesolithic in Belgium was noted
to be “perfectly synchronic” with the event (Robinson et al., 2013). In Southwest Asia, Borrell
(2007) has noted that a change in chipped stone industries at Akarçay Tepe in Southeast
Turkey was contemporaneous with the event. He also notes that at nearby Tell Halula
around the same time hunting was replaced by animal husbandry, and changes in
settlement organization and size, building plans, and agriculture took place (Borrell, 2007).
However, as the dating and stratigraphy of these sites have not yet been fully published, it is
difficult to assess the relationship with the climatic event. In addition, Kuijt and Goring-Morris
(2002) place the MPPNB-LPPNB shift in the Southern Levant with associated changes,
among many other things in settlement locations and lay-out, at 9250 cal BP, although they
do not link this to climatic change. However, the majority of authors place this transition
earlier, around 9500 cal BP (e.g. Benz, n.d.; Rollefson, 2008).
2 Climate evidence
2.1 8.2 ka event
The 8.2 ka event is apparent in many records, especially from the Northern Hemisphere
(Abrantes et al., 2012; Alley and Ágústsdóttir, 2005; Alley et al., 1997; Wiersma and
Renssen, 2006). The event itself was most likely caused by meltwater escaping from Lake
Agassiz-Ojibway into the Atlantic Ocean via the Hudson Bay, altering termohaline circulation
(Barber et al., 1999; Clarke et al., 2003, 2004; Teller et al., 2002).
The existence of a climate anomaly around 8200 cal BP is clearly visible in ice cores
from Greenland (Fig. 1) (Alley et al., 1997; Johnsen et al., 2001; Thomas et al., 2007), where
air temperatures dropped by 3 to 6 ±2 °C (Alley et al., 1997; Kobashi et al. 2007;
Leuenberger et al., 1999). Sharp decreases in air temperature of up to 4°C are also evident
in many other high-resolution proxy records from the circum-Atlantic and Mediterranean
basin (Alley and Ágústsdóttir, 2005; Klitgaard-Kristensen et al., 1998; Morrill et al., 2013;
Pross et al., 2009; Veski et al., 2004; von Grafenstein et al., 1998; Wiersma and Renssen,
2006). While temperatures decreased hemisphere-wide, the effects on precipitation are less
clear. It appears that wetness increased north of 42° latitude, while aridity increased south of
this (Abrantes et al., 2012; Berger and Guilaine, 2009). For the Eastern Mediterranean, a
reduction in precipitation of around 17% has been calculated (Pross et al., 2009).
The event is well-dated to have taken place between 8250 and 8000 cal BP and to
have lasted around 160 years (van der Plicht et al., 2011). Cheng et al. (2009) give 8210-
8090 cal BP based on various precisely dated speleothem records. Dating based on ice
cores gives 8175±30 to 8025 cal BP (Kobashi et al., 2007), 8247-8086 cal BP with a central
event at 8212-8141 cal BP (Thomas et al., 2007), or, revised most recently, 8250 +10/-40 to
8090 +50/-10 cal BP (Rasmussen et al., 2014, maximum counting error 49 years). This is in
agreement with tree rings from Germany (8220-7950 BP, Spurk et al., 2002), and lake cores
from Norway (8220-8000 cal BP, Hormes et al., 2009). Some research dates the event
slightly earlier (ca 8290 cal BP), but this may be due to marine dating uncertainties (Ellison
et al., 2006; Klitgaard-Kristensen et al., 1998).
Figure 1 Selected climate proxies showing the 9.2 and/or 8.2 ka events. Greenland ice core
(NGRIP) δ18O, compared to high-resolution, well-dated proxies from in and nearby Southwest Asia.
From top to bottom: NGRIP δ18O (Johnsen et al., 2001), precipitation and temperature calculated from
percentage pollen from Tenaghi Philippon in Greece (Pross et al., 2009), percentage of deciduous
tree pollen in the SL152 marine core from the Aegean Sea (Kothoff et al., 2008), δ18O and δ13C from
Soreq Cave in Israel (Bar-Matthews et al., 1999, 2003), and δ18O from Qunf Cave in Oman
(Fleitmann et al., 2003). Locations are indicated in Fig. 3.
High resolution, well-dated records from the Southwest Asia region indicate an
impact of the climate event in this region (Fig. 1). Soreq Cave, located in the Southern
Levant, shows a slight, 1‰, increase in δ18O and a reversal of Early Holocene deluge effects
with a sharp, 7‰, decrease in δ13C between 8200 and 8000 cal BP (Bar-Matthews et al.,
1999, 2003). Sofular speleothem δ13C and 234U/238U increase, while growing rates are low,
all indicating a decrease in effective moisture/water availability, albeit over a longer time
span, from around 8600 cal BP onwards (Göktürk et al., 2011). In Lake Nar, δ18O increased,
which was interpreted as increasing aridity, although as a peak of a longer, 800-year, drying
trend (Dean, 2014). Dead Sea levels are clearly low around this time (Migowski et al., 2006),
but the decline appears to start several hundreds of years earlier already.
In contrast, no clear evidence is available in the Lake Golhisar or Lake Van records
(Eastwood et al., 2007). In the latter there is a decline in Poaceae pollen followed by a
Pistachio decrease, but at the same time oak pollen% increases, indicating continued
humidity (Wick et al., 2003). There is also no large anomaly in the Jeita Cave record
(Verheyden et al., 2008).
Some more information is available from areas directly surrounding Southwest Asia.
Speleothem δ18O from Qunf Cave in Oman increase at around 8200 cal BP (Fleitmann et al.,
2003, 2007). At the same time, deciduous tree pollen decline in and near the Aegean, while
steppe pollen increase (Bordon et al., 2009; Dormoy et al., 2009; Kotthoff et al., 2008;
Peyron et al., 2011; Pross et al., 2009). Marine records from the Aegean (LC21) and Adriatic
(LC25) indicate that the Early Holocene sapropel, indicating humid conditions, was
interrupted around 8200 cal BP (Mercone et al., 2000, 2001). This coincided with changes in
foraminifera and geochemistry, indicating increased salinity in those cores as well as in core
967 from the Eastern Mediterranean (Emeis et al., 2000; Mercone et al., 2000, 2001). In a
core from Marmara, low sea surface temperatures (SST) and a Neogloboquadrina incompta
peak occurred also around 8200 cal BP, although before the sapropel interruption (Sperling
et al., 2003). In the Red Sea core GeoB 5844-2, UK’37 derived SST reconstruction shows a
drop contemporaneous with an increase in G. ruber δ18O and Δδ18O (Arz et al., 2003).
2.2 9.2 ka event
Around 9250 cal BP, meltwater also escaped from Lake Agassiz, although on a much
smaller scale than a millennium later (1600 km3 compared to 163000 km3) (Teller et al.,
2002). An anomaly is clearly visible in Greenland ice core δ18O (Fig. 1) (Rasmussen et al.,
2007). Notwithstanding the relatively low influx of meltwater, the event evidently had an
impact on a nearly global climate, as summarized by Fleitmann et al. (2008), who show an
anomaly in ten records from various climate zones including Greenland, Alaska, Europe, the
Arabian Peninsula, and China. In addition, there is a meltwater spike in Norway lake records
(Hormes et al., 2009).
The event was dated to 9210 ±80 cal BP in Oman and China speleothems, and
centres on 9250 cal BP based on ice cores and the Bamberg (Germany) tree ring record
(Fleitmann et al., 2008 and references therein). The Norway lake record gives a slightly
earlier, but still overlapping date of 9390-9145 cal BP (Hormes et al., 2009). Rasmussen et
al. (2007, 2014) dated the event from 9300 +10/-20 to 9190 +30/-10 cal BP in the Greenland
ice cores (9350-9240 b2k, estimated maximum counting error of 70 years), with a duration
between 40 and over 100 years.
The 9.2 ka event is not very prevalent in most Southwest Asian records, but is clearly
present in Qunf Cave (Fig. 1). There is also some evidence for a dry signal around 9200 cal
BP in Lake Nar, based on an increase in δ18O (Dean, 2014). In core SL21 from the Aegean,
S. elongatus peaks that were associated with the arid 8.2 ka event also occurred around
9500 and 9030 cal BP (Marino et al., 2009). Pollen records from the Aegean indicate a
(slight) decline in precipitation around 9250 cal BP (Fig. 1, Pross et al., 2009). Because of
the short duration of the event, records have to have a very high resolution to pick it up.
2.3 Actual impact
In summary, there is clear evidence for rapid climate change events in the northern
hemisphere around 9250 cal BP and especially around 8200 cal BP. This evidently impacted
vegetation, at least for the 8.2 ka event. In the Aegean region, decreases in deciduous tree
species and increases in steppe species indicate a temperature decrease of 1 to 4 °C
around 8200 cal BP (Dormoy et al., 2009; Peyron et al., 2011; Pross et al., 2009), probably
due to reduction in winter precipitation (Marino et al., 2009), and a precipitation decrease of
17% (Pross et al., 2009).
In addition, two important issues should be kept in mind. Firstly, the 8.2 ka event was
superimposed on a more general aridification/cooling from 8600 to 7800 cal BP (Rohling and
Pälike, 2005). This is also visible in several of the Southwest Asian records. For example,
the pollen perturbation in the Aegean takes place between 8400 and 8100 cal BP, while the
Sofular δ13C anomaly already starts around 8600 cal BP (Fig. 1). Recently, some changes,
like migration into Western Anatolia, were connected to this longer-term aridification
(Weninger et al., 2014). Nonetheless, the current paper focuses on the more rapid 8.2 ka
event, as the speed of onset as well as the size of the rapid event would have been most
severe, and the event is thus most likely to have impacted societies (see Clare and
Weninger, 2010; Meze-Hausken, 2000). Secondly, both the 9.2 ka and 8.2 ka events were
superimposed on a wetter Early Holocene period (Robinson et al., 2006). Especially the 9.2
ka event took place in the middle of the Holocene Climatic Optimum.
3 The potential impacts of the 8.2 and 9.2 ka events on societies
What kind of societal impact do we expect to see at times of an abrupt and persistent
change to colder and drier climatic conditions? Based on archaeological, historical, and
modern examples (e.g. Black et al., 2011b; Clare and Weninger, 2010; Halstead and
O'Shea, 1989; Leppard, 2014; Meze-Hausken, 2000; Weiss and Bradley, 2001), we identify
four main ‘responses’: (1) Collapse/decline of societies, (2) Long distance migration, (3)
Adaptation and (4) No impact.
The ‘collapse’ of societies (Weiss and Bradley, 2001), or, as in the Neolithic the term
collapse is probably not applicable, large-scale decline, includes a sharp increase in site-
abandonment (temporary or long-term) because of starvation and migration (Weninger et al.,
Long-distance migration (Black et al., 2011b; Halstead and O'Shea, 1989; Leppard,
2014; Meze-Hausken, 2000) may be visible by sites being abandoned in certain regions and
new sites being established in other regions. Traditionally, material culture was expected to
change as a result, but it is now known that this may not be as clear-cut. Elemental and
isotope studies may help identify such issues in future.
Adaptation can be functional, such as diversification of subsistence strategies,
gathering of wild plants or keeping different animals, intensification or extensification of
agriculture, increased short-distance mobility, or searching for non-agricultural income (Block
and Webb, 2001; Leslie and McCabe, 2013; Meze-Hausken, 2000). We also include here
preventative strategies, like storage and exchange or social networks (Halstead and O'Shea,
1989). In addition, adaptation strategies include practices which may, at least in our view,
not be effective, such as intensification of ritual practices (Huffman, 2009; Sillitoe, 1993).
Establishing local adaptation practices in archaeology requires well-dated, thoroughly
studied archaeological sites spanning the time preceding and directly after the start of the
climatic change. In that way, changes in use of plants and animals (including isotope studies
to assert mobility), pottery (including, for example, lipids) and skeletal material can indicate
changes in subsistence, health, and diet; certain objects and materials can indicate long-
distance networks; and changes in for example figurines and treatment of the dead could
indicate ritual changes.
However, we emphasize that any categorisation by its nature will be simplistic, and
combinations and fluidity between categories is probably always present. In addition the
relationship between changing climate and such responses is far from linear and simple as
different factors are at play. Furthermore, it should be kept in mind that even if such changes
occur at the same time as climatic events, this does not evidence causality (Roberts et al.,
2011; van der Plicht et al., 2011).
4. Materials and Methods
The approach is shown in a schematic flowchart (Fig. 2). To examine potential cultural
impacts of the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events, we compiled quality-checked 14C-dates to analyse
occupation histories at all 83 14C-dated (where n>2) Neolithic sites between 9500 and 7500
cal BP, shown as bar-charts (Fig. 3) and site distribution maps (Fig. 4). In addition, we
present summed probability plots (SPPs) for different regions in Southwest Asia for the
period between 10,000 and 6000 cal BP (Fig. 5).
4.1 Radiocarbon database
A database of 6778 radiocarbon dates for Southwest Asia was compiled, using dates from
existing databases (Benz, n.d.; Böhner and Schyle, 2002-2006; Weninger et al., 2013) and
Figure 2 - Schematic overview of
used methods.
checking these against, and adding additional information from, the original publications. In
addition, new dates were collected from radiocarbon datasets and archaeological
publications. The extensive new database includes 3397 dates for the periods between
11000 to 5000 uncalibrated 14C-years from the present-day countries of Turkey, Syria,
Lebanon, Israel and the Palestinian territories, the Sinai region of Egypt, Iraq, and Iran
(Table S1). The Arabian Peninsula, the Caucasus, and Cyprus were excluded for this paper.
The spatial distribution of 14C-dated sites is uneven, with a scarcity of dated sites in Iraq and
Iran (Fig. 3-4), due to research biases and the political situation.
4.2 Quality-checking of 14C-dates
Before being used in analyses, the 14C-dates were rigorously quality-checked, as unreliable
dates can lead to erroneous conclusions. This is one of the major advantages of our
research. The following criteria were used for the quality check:
1. Dating precision. Considering that the aim of this research is to compare cultural
events to rapid climate events (with their onset occurring in less than a decade), a
precise chronology is of utmost importance. Samples with a standard deviation (1σ)
larger than 150 or 100 14C years were therefore excluded. Age uncertainties of 14C-
dates are caused by equipment resolution, measurement stability, and the random
nature of radioactive decay (Taylor 1987; van der Plicht and Bruins, 2005: 259).
Dates with standard deviations above 100 years are more likely to have had a
problematic laboratory treatment or concern a problematic sample (e.g. with a low
carbon content). Moreover, use of such 14C-dates would make events or site
occupation seem longer than they were likely in reality. For the SPPs, only dates with
a standard deviation of 100 or below were used; for site-specific analyses, dates with
standard deviations between 100 and 150 that met all other criteria were taken into
account with caution, as in some cases such large errors can be reduced using
Bayesian modelling (Bronk Ramsey, 2009a).
2. Material. Bulk samples were excluded, as the inclusion of sediment or roots may
cause contamination (Gillespie, 1984; van der Plicht and Bruins, 2001). 14C-dates
obtained from shell were also excluded, as it can give erroneous dates due to
recrystallization and hard water effects, also in terrestrial species (Bowman, 1990;
Olsson, 2009). Other material that is excluded is burnt bone, and most bone apatite
and carbonate dates (Mook and Waterbolk, 1985). Bone collagen on the other hand
is accepted when analysed after the 1990s (see Olsson, 2009: 14). Unfortunately,
many 14C-dates had to be rejected because the sample material was not published.
Charcoal, charred seeds, and recently analysed bone collagen were preferred and
formed the majority of samples used in the analyses. None of these is unproblematic
though. Charcoal dates may be too old for their context due to old wood effects
(Bowman, 1990; van der Plicht and Bruins, 2001, 2005). On the other hand, seeds
are more likely to be transported through sediment layers (Finlayson et al., 2011:
132; van der Plicht and Bruins, 2001, 2005). Therefore, we make a distinction
between 14C-dates derived from short-lived (seeds, twigs, and reliable bone samples)
and potentially long-lived (all other charcoal) samples, but do not exclude either
3. Samples reported as problematic by the laboratory were excluded. Where available,
δ13C and %C were checked (e.g. for charred C3 plant remains these should be ca -
22‰ to -24‰ and >60%, respectively) (van der Plicht and Bruins, 2005).
4. Reliability of the laboratory. Samples from laboratories that did not take part in the
laboratory inter-comparison exercises (Scott et al., 2004) were used with caution in
site-specific analyses, but included in the SPPs. Samples without laboratory number
were rejected.
5. Year of analysis. Analyses conducted before the 1980s were accepted with caution
(when meeting the other criteria), but nonetheless included in the SPPs.
6. Context. Only dates clearly connected to an archaeological context were used.
4.3 Analyses
Quality-checked 14C-dates were grouped on regional and site-specific scales. The regional
compilations were summarized in SPPs with date ranges from 10000 to 6000 cal BP. The
dates per site were used to assess when sites were occupied, using Bayesian modelling
where possible (limited to sites occupied between 9500 and 7500 cal BP). This information
was then used to plot settlement distribution, as well as to assess when intra-site cultural
change took place. Each of these analyses is explained in more detail below. All dates were
calibrated using the IntCal 13 curve and calibration and model construction were conducted
in OxCal version 4.2 (Bronk Ramsey, 2009a, b; Reimer et al., 2013).
4.3.1 Settlement distribution maps and site occupation bar charts
Based on the site-by-site assessment of occupation, settlement distribution maps (200 year
time slots) were created and bar charts were compiled for each of the 83 sites between 9500
and 7500 cal BP for which at least two quality-checked 14C-dates were available. Although
the stratigraphical and archaeological context were taken into account, it remains possible
that occupation was longer than suggested by the dates, for example because of erosion
(Roberts et al., 2007), or because excavations have not yet reached virgin soil. As such, Fig.
3 and 4 indicate when occupation was likely present, but not necessarily when it was absent.
Detailed information for each site is available in Table S2.
The settlement distribution is compared to modern precipitation zones in Fig. 4. This
was compiled using the KNMI Climate Explorer (van Oldenborgh, 2015), and based on CRU
TS3.22 1901-2013 0.5 grid data (Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia). Though
modern mean annual precipitation is different from that in the Neolithic, precipitation
gradients are for a large part affected by topography and as such are expected to be similar
(Black et al., 2011a).
4.3.2 Summed probability plots (SPPs)
SPPs were created in OxCal (using boundaries) to summarize available 14C-dates per
region. In this way, it is possible to assess when (Neolithic) occupation in a region is likely to
have started, assuming that if 14C-dated archaeology is present, people were present. Such
assertions were subsequently checked against site-specific data. We do not use SPPs as a
direct demographic proxy (Shennan et al., 2013; Shennan and Edinborough, 2007; Timpson
et al., 2014) as this approach has several problems (Armit et al., 2013; Contreras and
Meadows, 2014; Williams, 2012) and the Southwest Asia dataset does not meet the basic
requirements to overcome these for several reasons. Firstly, many of the regions only have
a small number of 14C-dates from a limited number of sites (Table S3). Secondly, there is a
heavy research bias towards certain periods, regions, and sites. Though such a bias can
partly be overcome by site-phase corrections (Shennan et al., 2013; Shennan and
Edinborough, 2007), the remaining number of 14C-dates is only very small for the Southwest
Asian sample. Nonetheless, such corrections were added for comparative reasons (Fig. 5).
They were done by combining dates for the same phases within a site using the R_Combine
function in OxCal (Shennan and Edinborough, 2007). Where excavators did not indicate any,
or no detailed, phasing (for example only ‘Late Neolithic’), dates were separated in artificial
200-year bins.
4.3.3 Intra-site cultural change
For sites with a sufficient number of 14C-dates and accessible and sufficient stratigraphic
information, Bayesian models were constructed in OxCal (Bronk Ramsey, 2009a, b). Due to
often limited information provided by publications or limited knowledge of internal
stratigraphic relations, these mostly remain coarse, but nonetheless give improved
information on when phases of each site can be dated. When additional archaeological
information was provided in publications and reports, an assessment was made of whether
socio-economic changes occurred contemporaneously with either the 8.2 or 9.2 ka events
(sites are specified in section 5.3, see also Fig. S2).
Figure 3 - Map showing locations of all discussed sites and of selected Eastern Mediterranean high-
resolution climate proxies (basemap from ArcGIS by Esri) and bar charts for all Southwest Asian 14C-
dated sites with at least two dates between 9500 and 7500 cal BP. The diagrams indicate the range
covered by the available 14C-dates within 1σ (box) and 2σ (line). Where possible, the diagrams are
based on Bayesian modelling, but where detailed stratigraphic information was lacking, they are
based on individual 14C-dates (specified in Table S2). Grey bars indicate archaeological information,
when different from 14C-evidence.
1. Aşağı Pınar; 2. Hoca Çeşme; 3. Uğurlu; 4. Yarımburgaz; 5. Ilıpınar; 6. Menteşe; 7. Barcın Höyük; 8. Ege
Gübre; 9. Ulucak; 10. Çukuriçi; 11. Suberde; 12. Kuruçay Höyük; 13. Höyücek; 14. Hacılar; 15. Erbaba; 16.
Bademağaci; 17. Tepecik-Çiftlik; 18. Pinarbaşi B; 19. Musular; 20 Çatalhöyük East; 21. Çatalhöyük West; 22.
Yumuktepe; 23. Fistikli Höyük; 24. Akarçay Tepe; 25. Gritille; 26. Çayönü; 27. Girikihaciyan; 28. Chagar Bazar;
29. Tell Halaf; 30. Kashkashok; 31. Seker el-Aheimar; 32. Thalathat; 33. Umm Qseir; 34. Bouqras; 35.
Damishliyya; 36. Tell Sabi Abyad I; 37. Tell Sabi Abyad II; 38. Tell Sabi Abyad III; 39. Abu Hureyra; 40. Tell
Halula; 41. El-Kerkh sites; 42. Qdeir I; 43. Tell es-Sawwan I; 44. Tell Nebi Mend; 45. Ard Tlaili; 46. Byblos; 47.
Betzet 1; 48. Kfar Samir; 49. Ramad; 50. Tell Rakan; 51. Atlit-Yam; 52. Tel ‘Ali; 53. Tabaqat al-Buma; 54. Al-
Basatin; 55. Sha’ar Hagolan; 56. ‘Ain Ghazal; 57. Dhuweila; 58. Burqu’ 35; 59. Burqu’ 27; 60. Wisad Pools; 61.
Azraq 31; 62. Bawwab al-Ghazal; 63. Jilat 13; 64. Khirbet Hammam; 65. Nahal Hemar; 66. Ba’ja; 67. Basta; 68.
Issaron; 70. Hajji Firuz; 71. Tepe Ebrahim Abad; 72. Chahar Boneh; 73 Tepe Sialk; 74. Sarab; 75. Tepe Guran;
76. Ali Kosh; 77. Chogha Bonut; 78. Chogha Mish; 79. Tol-e Nurabad; 80. Tol-e Bashi; 81. Rahmatabad; 82. Tal-
e Jari B; 83. Mushki.
5. Results & Discussion
5.1 Did early farming societies collapse or decline at the time of the 9.2 or 8.2 ka
Fig. 3 and 4 show that there is no clear evidence for a widespread or regional abandonment
at around 9250 cal BP or 8200 cal BP, or at any other point in time between 9500 and 7500
cal BP. There is no convincing 14C-evidence for any site being abandoned at around 9250
cal BP. The only two sites where 14C-dates are absent within 100 years from the 9.2 ka
event, Betzet 1 (Fig. 3 site 47) and Azraq 31 (site 61), only have two dates for the period. Of
83 sites, only four sites lack 14C-dates between 8200 and 8100 cal BP and may have been
abandoned, while many others appear to have remained occupied (Fig. 3, Fig. S1). Six sites
show a short-term lack of 14C-dates around 8200 cal BP in their range and may have
been temporarily abandoned; however, this is not the case in their range and
archaeological evidence frequently indicates continuity (see Fig. S1 and section 5.3).
Sites that were potentially abandoned around 9250 or 8200 cal BP were not
specifically located in marginal areas with generally drier or colder climatic conditions, as
would be expected (Fig. 4, Fig. S1). It is possible that Sarab (Fig. 3 site 74) was abandoned
because of colder conditions, as it is situated high in the Zagros mountains (ca 1400 m asl).
Similarly, it is possible that Bouqras (Fig. 3 site 34), close to the Euphrates River but in a
very low rainfall zone (<200 mm of annual rainfall), was abandoned because of increased
aridification (nonetheless, the evidence is ambiguous, as the 14C-dates indicate that the site
was probably abandoned already around 8300 cal BP and its main, PPNB, occupation had
already been abandoned centuries before, while its ‘Proto-Hassuna’ style pottery indicates a
longer occupation than based on the 14C-dates (Fig. S2-A, Akkermans et al., 1981)).
However, Yumuktepe (Fig. 3 site 22), where an hiatus in 14C-dates is present around 8200
BP, is located in a favourable climate zone, while sites that show continuous occupation
during the 8.2 ka event were present in current steppe areas (<250 mm), such as Tell Sabi
Abyad (Fig. 3 site 36) and Çatalhöyük East (Fig. 3 site 20). Also sites in the extremely arid
(<100 mm) Jordanian Eastern Desert continued to be used during the 8.2 ka event (Fig. 3
sites 57 and 59).
An absence of a clear and widespread decline is also reflected in the SPPs (Fig. 5),
where no systematic changes in 14C-dates are found to occur at the time of either of the
climate events. 14C-probabilities are somewhat low around 8200 cal BP in the Southern
Levant (Fig. 5H), the Central Zagros (Fig. 5I), and Central Anatolia (Fig. 5E). This could
partly reflect a slight effect of the 8.2 ka event. However, the low probabilities are already
observed at around 8700/8600 cal BP in the Southern Levant, and from ca 8500 cal BP in
the Central Zagros and Central Anatolia, and are therefore clearly not caused by the 8.2 ka
event. Moreover, the Central Anatolian SPPs are extremely biased, as they mostly consist of
the 14C-dates from Çatalhöyük East (n=190 of a total of 293 quality-checked dates, Table
S3). It has been suggested that this site was abandoned at around 8200 cal BP (Roberts
Figure 4 - Settlement distribution maps for 200-year periods based on 14C-dates. The base map is
derived from ArcGIS (sources: ESRI, USGS, NOAA), the precipitation map is derived from the KNMI
Explorer tool (van Oldenborgh, 2015) and based on CRU 1901-2013 precipitation observations
(Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia, 2008).
and Rosen, 2009; Weninger and Clare, 2011; Weninger et al., 2006, 2009), but new 14C-
dates show that occupation continued until at least 8000 cal BP (Marciniak et al., 2015;
Marciniak and Czerniak, 2007).
The decrease in probability values in the Southern Levant probably reflects the
abandonment of larger LPPNB farming villages (‘mega-sites’), which has previously been
ascribed to the 8.2 ka event (Staubwasser and Weiss, 2006), but clearly occurs too early
(Fig. 5-6, see also Fig. S2-B; see also Maher et al., 2011). Clare (2010) argues that these
14C-dates could be too early due to old wood effects and that the decline could be related to
the general aridification starting at around 8600 cal BP. On the other hand, FPPNB/PPNC
site abandonment (Berger and Guilaine, 2009), which occurs closer to 8200 cal BP (but see
section 5.3), does not yield much evidence for abandonment of sites (Fig. 3-5). As such, the
abandonment of PPNB sites in the Levant clearly occurs too early to be caused by the 8.2
ka event.
The only region with a marked dip in 14C-date probabilities at around 8200 cal BP, is
Northern Mesopotamia, but only if the (rather relevant) site of Sabi Abyad is not taken into
account (Fig. 5F and 6C). In any case, in this region the decline in 14C-probabilities starts
between 8600 and 8400 cal BP already. Moreover, when ground-truthing the SPPs against
evidence from individual sites (Fig. 3), it is clear that while each individual sites yielded fewer
14C-dates, the total number of sites remained stable throughout the event. It is therefore
likely that the low probabilities are at least partly caused by a research bias, which has
tended to disfavour the Late Neolithic period until recently (Akkermans and Schwartz, 2003).
It is under discussion if the site of Sabi Abyad itself was continuously occupied throughout
the 8.2 ka event (van der Plicht et al., 2011) or if there was a short occupation hiatus
(Weninger et al., 2014). The latter hypothesis is, however, solely based on cemetery
evidence. Our own analyses in OxCal show that it is currently not possible to solve this
question by assessing only the 14C-dates (the OxCal Interval function indicates a gap of 9-99
years (1σ) or 0-158 years (2σ) between phase A1 and B8, indicating that there may (1) or
may not (0) have been a hiatus, Table S4). Nonetheless, van der Plicht et al. (2011) note
Figure 5 - Regional summed probability plots (SPPs) based on quality-checked 14C-dates for the
period between 10000 and 6000 cal BP. The black line represents all quality-checked dates, the
green line represents dates on short-lived samples (e.g. seeds, bone) only, and the orange line
indicates site-phase corrected dates (Shennan and Edinborough, 2007). The plots are compared to
the Greenland ice core NGRIP δ18O record (A) (Johnsen et al., 2001). Note that it is the area under
the curve that gives the probability density, not the height of the curve itself. The ‘calibration curve
effect’ (L) is based on 14C-dates with an even spacing of five 14C-years; if no effect of the curve would
be present, this would be a flat line. Comparison with this curve indicates if peaks or troughs in the
SSPs are caused by the calibration effect.
Figure 6 - Summed probability plots for different precipitation zones, assumed to reflect climate
zones, in Northern Mesopotamia and the Southern Levant.
that there is an additional, undated phase B9 between A1 and B8, making continuity the
more likely option. The latter is strongly supported by the excavators, who did not find
evidence for a significant hiatus (Akkermans et al., 2014), showing the importance of taking
into account both dating and archaeological evidence.
5.2 Is there evidence for migration?
The SPPs shown in Fig. 5 do not show evidence for widespread migration at either 9250 or
8200 cal BP. The large majority of areas do not show a sudden increase in 14C-dates at or
just after the start of either of the climatic events. Fig. 6 shows that this is the case not only
on a regional scale, but also when taking different climate zones within regions into account,
indicating no widespread intra-regional movement due to climatic changes associated with
the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events.
There is no evidence of systematic movement during the 9.2 ka event (Fig. 4-5). The
widely accepted shift of sites from the western to the eastern part of the Southern Levant
(MPPNB-LPPNB transition) (Kuijt and Goring-Morris, 2002) is not apparent on the settlement
distribution maps (Fig. 4), because of a lack of reliable (after quality-check) 14C-dates for
many of the relevant sites. In any case, from 14C-dates that are available, this shift appears
to have taken place around 9500 cal BP already (Benz, n.d.; see also Fig. S2-B). A
migration into the desert has also been suggested to have occurred around this time (Gebel,
2002; Kuijt and Goring-Morris, 2002), and was potentially related to a climate shift, as it
would allow for resource diversification. However, occupation in the desert happened before
9200 cal BP, while the first evidence for pastoralism there does not occur until after the 9.2
ka event (Fig. 7).
Figure 5A-D clearly shows that the earliest spread of the Neolithic to Western and
Northwest Anatolia occurred several hundreds of years before the 8.2 ka event. This is in
agreement with recently published studies (Brami, 2014; Düring, 2013; Weninger et al.,
2014). Our new analysis shows that this holds up when looking at short-lived samples only,
revealing that the pattern cannot be a result of an old wood effect. In addition, we also show
that that this pattern remains clear when carefully checking 14C-dates from individual sites
(section 5.3, Fig. S2). Also the second, main part of the Neolithic spread westwards, said to
be characterised by dark coloured burnished ceramics (Özdoğan, 2011), did not coincide
with the 8.2 ka event. Sites that are part of this so-called Archaic and Classic Fikirtepe
culture (Özdoğan, 2011), fall temporarily far apart (see Erdoğu, 2001). The site of Ilıpınar
(Fig. 3 site 5) is dated to start around 8000 cal BP (Roodenberg and Schier, 2001), thus
post-dating the 8.2 ka event, while Menteşe (Fig. 3 site 6) and Barcin Höyük (Fig. 3 site 7)
were occupied already from around 8400 cal BP, clearly pre-dating the event (Fig. 3 and
The postulated contribution of general aridification from around 8600 cal BP to the
spread of the Neolithic (Weninger and Clare, 2011; Weninger et al., 2014) is in general
agreement with our set of quality-checked 14C-dates. The only exceptions are several
charcoal samples from the site of Ulucak in Western Anatolia (Fig. S2; Fig. 3 site 9).
Nonetheless, the appearance of Neolithic sites in Western and Northwestern Anatolia occurs
over several hundred years (Fig. 5) and is therefore most likely not only caused by climate
In Iran, the first Neolithic occupations of the Northwest, the Plateau and the East
occur after 8000 cal BP, and are post-dating the 8.2 ka event (Fig. 5) (14C-dates for Eastern
Iran are not shown, as the currently available, quality-checked 14C-dates are all post-7500
cal BP, Table S1). It has been argued that the Early Holocene climate remained drier in Iran
compared to other parts of Southwest Asia until about 6300 cal BP, with humidity gradually
increasing during this period (Djamali et al., 2010; Stevens et al., 2001). Interestingly, the
start of the occupation on the Iranian Plateau occurred from ca 8000 cal BP (long-lived
samples) or 7500 cal BP (short-lived samples) (Fig. 5K) and may therefore be concurrent
with increasing precipitation and humidity (Schmidt et al., 2011). This is an intriguing
possibility, but more precisely dated local climate records and more archaeological 14C-dates
on short-lived samples are needed to assess this.
In the Southern Zagros, 14C-probabilities increased at around 8200 cal BP (Fig. 3-5),
although earlier occupation in the region has been attested at the site of Rahmatabad (Fig. 3
site 81; Fig. 5J) (Azizi Kharanaghi et al., 2013; Bernbeck et al., 2008). Nonetheless, it is
possible that the occupation in the region increased as a result of the 8.2 ka event, even
though it is, at least currently, not wetter than the regions where occupation was present
previously, the Central Zagros or Southwestern Iran (Fig. 4).
Figure 7 - Summed probability plots for sites in the Jordanian Desert. All quality-checked dates are
shown, including those for sites with only a single 14C-date (for Jilat 26, 3 dates are available which
are in agreement with each other, but two of these have standard deviations of >100 (110) 14C yrs).
Red lines indicate sites without evidence for pastoralism (in the form of domesticated sheep/goat
bones), green lines indicate sites with evidence for pastoralism, orange lines indicate sites where
potential small-scale pastoralism was present, black lines indicate sites where no information on
animal use is present. The coloured and black lines indicate SPPs of dates using boundaries in
OxCal, while the grey lines in the background indicate the plots without boundaries (where no grey
lines are visible, there was no difference).
5.3 Local adaptation?
A third coping strategy is to adapt to climate change, for example by diversification of
subsistence practices. To assess this, well-dated (>10 14C-dates) and intensively studied
archaeological sites that were occupied before and during the climate event of interest are
Only five sites spanning the 9.2 ka event have over 10 quality-checked 14C-dates:
Bouqras (Fig. 3 site 34) and Abu Hureyra (site 39) in Syria, ‘Ain Ghazal (site 56) and Issaron
(site 68) in the Southern Levant, and Tepe Guran (site 75) in Iran (Table S2). The 14C-dates
for Tepe Guran are problematic as they are not in agreement with the stratigraphy and
archaeology. The sites of Bouqras and Issaron lack a final publication, but their main
(excavated) phases clearly continued without break throughout the 9.2 ka event (Fig. S2-A,
C). As archaeological phases are defined by clear breaks in stratigraphy, construction,
and/or material culture, the 9.2 ka event did apparently not coincide with major changes at
these sites. Also at ‘Ain Ghazal, the 9.2 ka event most likely falls in the middle of an
archaeological phase, the LPPNB phase (Fig. S2-B), which appears to start between 9530
and 9350 cal BP and not to end before 8900 cal BP (Table S5). While this is mostly based
on dates from charcoal samples, it is supported by 14C-dates on seeds. Nonetheless, it
should be noted that based on current 14C-dates, it is not impossible that the LPPNB at ‘Ain
Ghazal started around 9250 cal BP (Table S5). Overall, it can be concluded that there is
currently no evidence for local changes at the time of the 9.2 ka event, but more evidence is
To date, the following sites spanning the 8.2 ka event have been dated with >10
quality-checked 14C-dates and have published archaeological information: Tell Sabi Abyad
(Fig. 3 site 36) in Syria, Yumuktepe (site 22), Çatalhöyük East (site 20), Ulucak (site 9), and
Barcin Höyük (site 7) in Turkey, Sha’ar Hagolan (site 55) in Israel, and the Fars region (sites
79-83) in Iran.
Tell Sabi Abyad is very well dated and shows a multitude of changes at around 8200
cal BP, which coincide with the transition from level A1 to B8 (van der Plicht et al., 2011)
(Fig. S2-D-E). These include a change in settlement location within the site, an increased
importance of the drought-resistant species of sheep and goat, a decrease of pig, changes
in secondary product use shown by the use of older animals and a steep increase in spindle
whorl numbers, a change in ceramic styles, the increased use of painted pottery, and
potentially a shift from household- to communal-sized storage areas (Akkermans, 2013;
Nieuwenhuyse, 2013; Rooijakkers, 2012; Russell, 2010; van der Plicht et al., 2011). The
increased importance of secondary products could reflect a diversification strategy, while
changes in pottery styles and decoration could be indicative of changes in cooking practices
and social changes, respectively (Nieuwenhuyse, 2013).
Nonetheless, it is not clear if these changes were caused by climatic change.
Changes in animal bone, pottery, and spindle whorls already occurred in level A1 or even
the earlier A2, which were dated mostly (just) before the event (A1 to 8280-8175 cal BP and
A2 to 8335-8275 cal BP, van der Plicht et al., 2011: Table 1). The changes have roots in
previous levels and continue gradually over a long time: For example, painted pottery only
occurs in small numbers in level A1 and B8, and gradually increases in importance
thereafter, while secondary products only became important from the later level B3 onwards
(Nieuwenhuyse, 2013; Russell, 2010). As such, it is difficult to relate these long-term trends
specifically to the 8.2 ka event. Also, some changes are difficult to link causally to an
increasingly arid climate, such as an increase in the use of cattle (Russell, 2010) or the use
of painted pottery. Moreover, the changes that were observed are not dramatic, e.g. the
absolute changes in animal species counts are only slight.
At Yumuktepe (Fig. 3 site 22) in Southeastern Anatolia, there is a clear hiatus in 14C-
dates around 8200 cal BP (in the modelled 1σ range, no dates fall between 8266 and 8170
cal BP, Table S6, see Weninger et al., 2006). This coincides with the transition from the
“Early” to “Middle Neolithic” phase at the site. It is possible that Yumuktepe was temporarily
abandoned. However, the stratigraphy and material culture indicate continuity and only
gradual cultural change from the Early to Middle phase, with a more profound change only
occurring during the transition from the Middle to the Late phase (Caneva, 2012; Caneva
and Sevin, 2004). This transition can be dated to 7900-7800 cal BP (modelled transition
based on 14C-dates 95% certain not before 8000 cal BP, see Table S6), so clearly after the
8.2 ka event.
At Sha’ar Hagolan (Fig. 3 site 55), the PPNC-Pottery Neolithic (Yarmukian) tradition
is documented. The Pottery Neolithic, or Late Neolithic, is characterized not only by the
introduction of pottery and other material changes, but also by a continued decrease in large
sites in favour of more, more dispersed and smaller sites (Banning et al., 1994), although
Sha’ar Hagolan appears to be an exception in this respect. It is not impossible that this
transition occurred around 8200 cal BP (see Clare, 2010), but current 14C-dates (albeit
mostly on charcoal) indicate that it had probably already taken place between 8340 and
8255 cal BP (1σ, Fig. S2-F). This puts it before the 8.2 ka event, but after the start of the
more general aridification. A pre-8200 cal BP end of the PPNC period is supported by 14C-
dates from ‘Ain Ghazal (Fig. 3 site 56), which do not span beyond 8500 cal BP (Fig. S2-B).
In addition, recently published 14C-dates from Sha’ar Hagolan show that the Yarmukian did
not end at the end of the 8.2 ka event, as previously argued (Clare, 2010), but continued into
the next millennium (Garfinkel and Ben-Shlomo 2009, Fig. S2-F).
Also at Çatalhöyük East (Fig. 3 site 20), most changes occurred either before or after
the 8.2 ka event. Levels V-I are clearly different from levels VI and before, with less densely
packed occupation with more open spaces, less continuity in building place, an increased
focus on the individual household in storage and production, and changes in lithics,
ceramics, and figurines (Düring and Marciniak, 2006; Marciniak and Czerniak, 2007).
However, these changes appear to occur already around 8400 cal BP (earliest beginning of
level V at 8390 cal BP at , Cessford, 2005: Table 4.2), so preceding the 8.2 ka event by
approximately 200 years, and post-dating the start of the general 8600 cal BP aridification by
200 years. The shift from the east to the west mound, on the other hand, clearly took place
after the event, with occupation on the west mound not starting before 8000 cal BP,
potentially overlapping with the last occupation on the east mound.
At Ulucak (Fig. 3 site 9) and Barcin Höyük (Fig. 3 site 7) no changes
contemporaneous with the 8.2 ka event appear to be present (Fig. S2-G-H). In both cases
the event occurs in the middle of archaeological phases. Weninger and Clare (2011: 19)
explain the lack of a break at Ulucak by the milder coastal climate of the site, which is also a
possibility for Barcin Höyük.
In the Fars region in Iran there is some evidence for a change in lifestyle between the
site dated during the event (Mushki, Fig. 3 site 83) and after (Jari, Fig. 3 site 82), with a more
settled lifestyle after 8000 cal BP potentially as a result of more humid conditions after the
climate event had ended (Niashiaki 2010). The 14C-dates so far match up, but dates from
other sites are crucially needed to ascertain if the difference between these two sites is
generally applicable to the region.
5.4 Why is there no evidence for an impact of the rapid climate events?
Based on our comprehensive analyses of 14C-dates and archaeological evidence, there is no
clear evidence for large-scale site abandonment, migration, or uniform regional and local
cultural changes. This is unexpected, especially for the 8.2 ka event, which is one of the
most pronounced rapid climate events of the Holocene. There are three potential reasons
why clear evidence for the impact of the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events is absent from the
archaeological record in Southwest Asia.
Firstly, climatic changes associated with the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events may not have
been severe enough, as they were superimposed on a generally wetter Early Holocene (Arz
et al., 2003; Göktürk et al., 2011; Robinson et al., 2006). While the 8.2 ka event was
certainly a very pronounced climatic anomaly, the mean climate during the event was still
more humid than the Late Holocene climate in Southwest Asia, as indicated by the Sofular
and Soreq records (Fig. 1). While records and models indicate precipitation and temperature
drops, its absolute effects may have not been sufficient to alter vegetation and harvests to
such an extent to form a large problem in food supply in the region.
Secondly, for the 8.2 ka (but not for the 9.2 ka) event, it is possible that people,
plants and animals had already adapted to more adverse climatic conditions. The climate
had increasingly become more arid from around 8600 cal BP onwards, so societies likely
had mechanisms in place to cope with this, such as diversification of resources and storage.
Storage facilities were used at least from the PPNA period onwards (Kuijt and Finlayson,
2009), but increasing formalisation of storage has been argued to have developed, with
household level storage during the Late Neolithic period (Bogaard et al., 2009), during which
the 8.6 ka aridification and finally the 8.2 ka event took place. Storage was clearly important
at the sites that continued throughout the 8.2 ka event: household level storage was present
at Çatalhöyük East (Bogaard et al., 2009), storage for extended families at Sha’ar Hagolan
(Garfinkel and Ben-Shlomo, 2009; Garfinkel and Miller, 2002), and communal storage
buildings came into existence after ca 8200 cal BP at Sabi Abyad (Akkermans, 2013;
Russell, 2010).
Finally, the resilience of early farming societies should not be underestimated. The
impact of a drought or climatic change depends on the strength of the hazard, but also the
vulnerability of the society it acts upon, which in turn depends on various demographic,
social, cultural, economic and political factors (Adger, 2006; Clare and Weninger, 2010;
Gaillard, 2007; Garcia and Escudero, 1982; Garcia and Spitz, 1986). Present-day small-
scale farming communities and pastoralists as well as ‘traditional’ societies are among the
groups deemed especially vulnerable to climate change, because of low levels of technology
and infrastructure (Bohle et al., 1994; Macchi et al., 2008; but see Gaillard, 2007). Probably
as a consequence, preindustrial societies are considered very vulnerable too (Ambar and
Scarasia-Mugnozza, 2012; Gonzalez-Samperiz et al., 2009). However, present-day small-
scale communities are not comparable to past Neolithic farmers (Clare and Weninger,
Neolithic societies in Southwest Asia were, with some exceptions, frequently only
small, consisting of perhaps a dozen households, and were dispersed in the landscape
(Akkermans and Schwartz, 2003). They settled close to perennial water sources, with easy
access to a variety of ecosystems. During the PPNB, a wide range of economic adaptations
was present, varying from foragers and pastoralists (mainly in arid regions), fishers and
farmers along the coasts, and farmers and herders and farmers and hunters in the
Mediterranean and steppe areas (Goring-Morris and Belfer-Cohen, 2011). Communities did
not solely rely on farming, but on diverse subsistence strategies, also making use of wild
resources (Asouti and Fuller, 2013). For example at Çatalhöyük East, one of the sites that
continued throughout the 8.2 ka event, wild plant resources like tubers, nuts and fruits as
well as wild animals were an important addition to the diet throughout the site’s history
(Asouti and Fairbairn, 2002; Fairbairn et al., 2007; Fuller et al., 2014; Roberts and Rosen,
2009; Russell and Martin, 2005). At many other sites, wild plants and animals were also
used as an addition to the diet, although with their importance and the used species varying
between sites (Akkermans et al., 1983, 2006; Fairbairn et al., 2007; Kansa et al., 2009;
Russell and Buitenhuis, 2008; but see Cappers, 2014). While wild resources appear to have
been often only small additions to the diet, such small extras would have been important in
times of stress.
Storage and resource diversification are just two (very relevant) examples, but they
make clear that Southwest Asian Neolithic societies had the opportunity to be highly resilient
to climate change. In fact, these relatively small-scale societies, where not a lot of
specialisation had taken place, were potentially much less vulnerable to climate change than
more ‘complex’ societies. More ‘complex’, specialized, and hierarchical societies are more
interconnected and reliant on their social connections, which makes them less flexible to
change when needed (Coombes and Barber, 2005). In addition, it has been argued that the
more people have invested, the harder they will try not to change (Janssen et al., 2003),
adding to the inflexibility of ‘complex’ societies.
6 Conclusion
In conclusion, there is no absolutely dated archaeological evidence for large-scale collapse
or decline, or migration at the time of two of the most severe and rapid climatic changes of
the Holocene. No more sites were abandoned than in other periods, and the sites that were
potentially abandoned around the time of the rapid climate change events were not
specifically located in more arid or colder areas. There is some evidence for local adaptation
to the 8.2 ka event, such as at Tell Sabi Abyad in Northern Syria. Other sites that continue
throughout the event do not show evidence for this, but none have been as precisely dated
as Sabi Abyad. The lack of a large-scale, severe impact on Southwest Asian societies can
be explained by the events being superimposed on the climatically favourable Early
Holocene period, by already existing adaptation strategies due to long-term, gradual climate
change, and/or by the resilience of the these early farming communities.
Our results are in contrast to many earlier studies, cited in section 1.1. Nonetheless,
research is increasingly emerging that shows that prehistoric societies were resilient to
climatic changes in a range of environments, such as in Iron Age Ireland (Armit et al., 2014).
When ‘collapse’ is observed, this is rarely due to a single, climatic factor, but often involves a
complex interplay of different factors (Butzer, 2012; Butzer and Endfield, 2012), as for
example shown for the ‘Maya Collapse’ (Aimers, 2011; Dunning et al., 2012; Turner II and
Sabloff, 2012). Similarly, in modern situations, we see that, for example, the decision to
migrate is dependent on many different factors, including personal and family characteristics
(Black et al., 2011b; Meze-Hausken, 2000).
The current data show clearly that there are no large-scale, regional-wide changes,
such as mass abandonment of settlement groups at the time of the 9.2 and 8.2 ka climate
events. However, our knowledge of the local impact of the climate events needs to be
improved to assess past adaptation strategies. Firstly, more information is needed on local
climate and environment. For example, the assertions that settlement on the Iranian Plateau
was delayed due to unfavourable conditions (Schmidt et al., 2011), while settlement in the
Fars region may have increased or changed during the 8.2 ka event (Nishiaki, 2010; Weeks,
2013), need to be checked against data from local climate records. Secondly, more site-
specific detailed studies focusing on the ecological bases and strategies, like conducted for
Sabi Abyad, are needed. As we have clearly shown in this paper that there were no large-
scale impacts of the Early Holocene rapid climate events, and that it is likely that the only
effects were varied, local adaptations, high-resolution dating of archaeological sites, in
combination with thorough studies of all environmental and material categories are essential.
This site-specific ‘bottom-up’ approach is now the best way to further the debate. Such
studies, in combination with existing publications, should be used to focus on certain
‘phenomena’: Taking all sites together, can we see changes in, for example, subsistence
(animal use, plant use), or storage practices? This approach will be time consuming, but
very worthwhile.
This research was funded by the University of Reading. We are very grateful to the two
reviewers for their useful comments and to a variety of other people for informal discussions
on the topic of this paper. The underlying research data can be found in the online
Supplementary Information and can be requested from the authors.
Abbo, S., Lev-Yadun, S., Gopher, A., 2010. Yield stability: an agronomic perspective on the origin of
Near Eastern agriculture. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 19, DOI 10.1007/s00334-
Abrantes, F., Voelker, A., Sierro, F.J., Naughton, F., Rodrigues, T., Cacho, I., Ariztegui, D., Brayshaw,
D., Sicre, M.-A., Batista, L., 2012. Paleoclimate variability in the Mediterranean region, in:
Lionello, P. (Ed.), The climate of the Mediterranean region: From the past to the future.
Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 1-86.
Adger, W.N., 2006. Vulnerability. Global Environ Chang 16, 268-281.
Aimers, J., 2011. FORUM Societal collapse Drought and the Maya. Nature 479, 44-44.
Akkermans, P.A., Boerma, J.A.K., Clason, A.T., Hill, S.G., Lohof, E., Meiklejohn, C., Le Mière, M.,
Molgat, G.M.F., Roodenberg, J.J., Waterbolk-van Rooyen, W., Van Zeist, W., 1983. Bouqras
revisited: Preliminary report on a project in Eastern Syria. Proceedings of the Prehistoric
Society 49, 335-372.
Akkermans, P.A., Fokkens, H., Waterbolk, H.T., 1981. Stratigraphy, achitecture, and lay-out of
Bouqras, in: Aurenche, O., Cauvin, M.-C., Sanlaville, P. (Eds.), Préhistoire du Levant:
processus des changements culturels; hommage à Francis Hours. Maison de l'Orient
Méditerranéen, Lyon.
Akkermans, P.M.M.G., 2013. Tell Sabi Abyad, or the Ruins of the White Boy. A short history of
research into the Late Neolithic of Northern Syria, in: Bonatz, D., Martin, L. (Eds.), 100 Jahre
archäologische Feldforschungen in Nordost-Syrien - eine Bilanz. Harrassowitz Verlag,
Akkermans, P.M.M.G., Brüning, M., Huigens, H., Nieuwenhuyse, O.P. (eds), 2014. Excavations at
Late Neolithic Tell Sabi Abyad, Syria. The 1994-1999 field seasons. Brepols, Turnhout.
Akkermans, P.M.M.G., Cappers, R., Cavallo, C., Nieuwenhuyse, O., Nilhamn, B., Otte, I.N., 2006.
Investigating the early pottery Neolithic of northern Syria: New evidence from Tell Sabi Abyad.
Am J Archaeol 110, 123-156.
Akkermans, P.M.M.G., Schwartz, G.M., 2003. The Archaeology of Syria: From Complex Hunter-
Gatherers to Early Urban Societies (ca. 16,000-300BC). Cambridge University Press,
Akkermans, P.M.M.G., van der Plicht, J., Nieuwenhuyse, O.P., Russell, A., Kaneda, A., Buitenhuis,
H., 2010. Weathering climate change in the Near East: dating and Neolithic adaptations 8200
years ago. Antiquity Project Gallery 325.
Alley, R.B., Ágústsdóttir, A.M., 2005. The 8k event: cause and consequences of a major Holocene
abrupt climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews 24, 1123-1149.
Alley, R.B., Mayewski, P.A., Sowers, T., Stuiver, M., Taylor, K.C., Clark, P.U., 1997. Holocene climatic
instability: A prominent, widespread event 8200 yr ago. Geology 25, 483-486.
Ambar, I., Scarasia-Mugnozza, G., 2012. Foreword, in: Lionello, P. (Ed.), The climate of the
Mediterranean Region: From the past to the future. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. xxi-xxiii.
Armit, I., Swindles, G.T., Becker, K., 2013. From dates to demography in later prehistoric Ireland?
Experimental approaches to the meta-analysis of large C-14 data-sets. Journal of
Archaeological Science 40, 433-438.
Armit, I., Swindles, G.T., Becker, K., Plunkett, G., Blaauw, M., 2014. Rapid climate change did not
cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age. P Natl Acad Sci USA.
Arz, H.W., Lamy, F., Patzold, J., Muller, P.J., Prins, M., 2003. Mediterranean Moisture Source for an
Early-Holocene Humid Period in the Northern Red Sea. Science 300, 118-121.
Asouti, E., Fairbairn, A., 2002. Subsistence economy in Central Anatolia during the Neolithic: the
archaeobotanical evidence, in: Gérard, F., Thissen, L. (Eds.), The Neolithic of Central Anatolia.
Internal developments and external relations during the 9th - 6th millennia cal BC. Ege Yainlari,
Istanbul, pp. 181-192.
Asouti, E., Fuller, D.Q., 2013. A contextual approach to the emergence of agriculture in Southwest
Asia. Current Anthropology 54, 299-345.
Azizi Kharanaghi, H., Fazeli Nashli, H., Nishiaki, Y., 2013. Tepe Rahmatabad: A Pre-Pottery and
Pottery Neolithic site in Fars Province, in: Matthews, R., Fazeli Nashli, H. (Eds.), The
Neolithisation of Iran. The formation of new societies. Oxbow, Oxford, pp. 108-123.
Banning, E.B., Rahimi, D., Siggers, J., 1994. The Late Neolithic of the Southern Levant: Hiatus,
Settlement Shift or Observer Bias? The Perspective from Wadi Ziqlab. Paléorient 20, 151-164.
Bar-Matthews, M., Ayalon, A., Gilmour, M., Matthews, A., Hawkesworth, C., 2003. Sea-land oxygen
isotopic relationships from planktonic forminifera and speleothems in the Eastern
Mediterranean region and their implication for paleorainfall during interglacial intervals.
Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 67, 3181-3199.
Bar-Matthews, M., Ayalon, A., Kaufman, A., Wasserburg, G.J., 1999. The Eastern Mediterranean
paleoclimate as a reflection of regional events: Soreq cave, Israel. Earth and Planetary Science
Letters 166, 85-95.
Bar-Yosef, O., Belfer-Cohen, A., 2002. Facing environmental crisis. Societal and cultural changes at
the transition from the Younger Dryas to the Holocene in the Levant, in: Cappers, R.T.J.,
Botteman, S. (Eds.), The Dawn of Farming in the Near East. ex oriente, Berlin, pp. 55-66.
Barber, D.C., Dyke, A., Hillaire-Marcel, C., Jennings, A.E., Andrews, J.T., Kerwin, M.W., Bilodeau, G.,
McNeely, R., Southon, J., Morehead, M.D., Gagnon, J.M., 1999. Forcing of the cold event of
8,200 years ago by catastrophic drainage of Laurentide lakes. Nature 400, 344-348.
Belfer-Cohen, A., Goring-Morris, A.N., 2011. Becoming Farmers: The Inside Story. Current
Anthropology 52, S209-S220.
Benz, M., n.d. PPND - The Platform for Neolithic Radiocarbon Dates. Ex Oriente,
Berger, J.F., Guilaine, J., 2009. The 8200 cal BP abrupt environmental change and the Neolithic
transition: A Mediterranean perspective. Quaternary International 200, 31-49.
Bernbeck, R., 1994. Die Auflösung der Häuslichen Produktionsweise: Das Beispiel Mesopotamiens.
Dietrich Reimer Verlag, Berlin.
Bernbeck, R., Pollock, S., Fazeli Nashli, H., 2008. Rahmatabad: Dating the Aceramic Neolithic in Fars
Province. Neo-Lithics 1/08, 37-39.
Biehl, P.F., 2012. Rapid change versus long-term social change during the Neolithic-Chalcolithic
transition in Central Anatolia. Interdisciplinaria Archaeologica - Natural Sciences in Archaeology
3, 75-83.
Black, E., Brayshaw, D., Black, S., Rambeau, C., 2011a. Using proxy data, historical climate data and
climate models to investigate aridification during the Holocene, in: Mithen, S., Black, E. (Eds.),
Water, Life, and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, pp. 105-112.
Black, R., Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., Thomas, D.S.G., 2011b. The effect of
environmental change on human migration. Global Environ Chang 21, S3-S11.
Block, S., Webb, P., 2001. The dynamics of livelihood diversification in post-famine Ethiopia. Food
Policy 26, 333-350.
Bogaard, A., Charles, M., Twiss, K.C., Fairbairn, A., Yalman, N., Filipovic, D., Demirergi, G.A., Ertug,
F., Russell, N., Henecke, J., 2009. Private pantries and celebrated surplus: storing and sharing
food at Neolithic Catalhoyuk, Central Anatolia. Antiquity 83, 649-668.
Bohle, H.G., Downing, T.E., Watts, M.J., 1994. Climate-Change and Social Vulnerability - toward a
Sociology and Geography of Food Insecurity. Global Environ Chang 4, 37-48.
Böhner, U., Schyle, D., 2002-2006. radiocarbon CONTEXT database 2002-2006. http://context-
Bonsall, C., Macklin, M.G., Payton, R.W., Boroneant, A., 2002. Climate, floods and river gods:
environmental change and the Meso-Neolithic transition in southeast Europe. Before Farming
3/4, 1-12.
Bordon, A., Peyron, O., Lezine, A.M., Brewer, S., Fouache, E., 2009. Pollen-inferred Late-Glacial and
Holocene climate in southern Balkans (Lake Maliq). Quaternary International 200, 19-30.
Borrell, F., 2007. From PPNB to PN: Chipped stone industries of the Middle Euphrates Valley. New
data, new interpretations. Neo-Lithics 1/07, 33-37.
Bowman, S., 1990. Radiocarbon dating. British Museum Publications, London.
Brami, M., 2014. A graphical simulation of the 2,000-year lag in Neolithic occupation between Central
Anatolia and the Aegean basin. Archaeol Anthropol Sci, 1-9.
Bronk Ramsey, C., 2009a. Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates. Radiocarbon 51, 337-360.
Bronk Ramsey, C. 2009b. Dealing with outliers and offsets in radiocarbon dating. Radiocarbon 51,
Budja, M., 2007. The 8200 calBP 'climate event' and the process of neolithisation in south-eastern
Europe. Documenta Praehistorica XXXIV, 191-201.
Butzer, K.W., 2012. Collapse, environment, and society. P Natl Acad Sci USA 109, 3632-3639.
Butzer, K.W., Endfield, G.H., 2012. Critical perspectives on historical collapse. P Natl Acad Sci USA
109, 3628-3631.
Caneva, I., 2012. Mersin-Yumuktepe in the seventh millennium BC: an updated view, in: Özdoğan,
M., Başgelen, N., Kuniholm, P. (Eds.), The Neolithic in Turkey, vol. 3: Central Anatolia.
Archaeology and Art Publications, Istanbul, pp. 1-29.
Caneva, I., Sevin, V., 2004. Mersin-Yumuktepe: a reappraisal. Congedo, Galatina.
Cappers, R.T.J., 2014. The cultivated and wild plant remains, in: Akkermans, P.M.M.G., Brüning,
M.L., Huigens, H.O., Nieuwenhuyse, O.P. (Eds.), Excavations at Late Neolithic Tell Sabi
Abyad, Syria. The 1994-1999 field seasons. Brepols, Turnhout, pp. 233-246.
Carmi, I., Segal, D., Goringmorris, A.N., Gopher, A., 1994. Dating the Prehistoric Site Nahal-Issaron in
the Southern Negev, Israel. Radiocarbon 36, 391-398.
Cessford, C., 2005. Absolute dating at Çatalhöyük, in: Hodder, I. (Ed.), Changing materialities at
Çatalhöyük: reports from the 1995-99 seasons. McDonal Institute for Archaeological
Research/British Institute at Ankara, Cambridge/London, pp. 65-99.
Cheng, H., Fleitmann, D., Edwards, R.L., Wang, X.F., Cruz, F.W., Auler, A.S., Mangini, A., Wang,
Y.J., Kong, X.G., Burns, S.J., Matter, A., 2009. Timing and structure of the 8.2 kyr BP event
inferred from delta O-18 records of stalagmites from China, Oman, and Brazil. Geology 37,
Çilingiroğlu, A., Çevik, Ö., Çilingiroğlu, Ç., 2012. Ulucak Höyük. Towards understanding the early
farming communities of Middle West Anatolia: the contribution of Ulucak, in: Özdoğan, M.,
Başgelen, N., Kuniholm, P. (Eds.), The Neolithic in Turkey, vol. 4. Archaeology and Art
Publications, Istanbul.
Clare, L., 2010. Pastoral clashes: Conflict risk and mitigation at the Pre-Pottery Neolithic transition in
the Southern Levant. Neo-Lithics 1/10, 13-31.
Clare, L., Weninger, B., 2010. Social and biophysical vulnerability of prehistoric societies to Rapid
Climate Change. Documenta Praehistorica XXXVII, 283-292.
Clarke, G., Leverington, D., Teller, J., Dyke, A., 2003. Superlakes, megafloods, and abrupt climate
change. Science 301, 922-923.
Clarke, G.K.C., Leverington, D.W., Teller, J.T., Dyke, A.S., 2004. Paleohydraulics of the last outburst
flood from glacial Lake Agassiz and the 8200 BP cold event. Quaternary Science Reviews 23,
Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Jones, P.D., Harris, I., 2008.
Climatic Research Unit (CRU) time-series datasets of variations in climate with variations in
other phenomena. NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre,
Contreras, D.A., Meadows, J., 2014. Summed radiocarbon calibrations as a population proxy: a
critical evaluation using a realistic simulation approach. Journal of Archaeological Science 52,
Coombes, P., Barber, K., 2005. Environmental determinism in Holocene research: causality or
coincidence? Area 37, 303-311.
Dean, J.R., 2014. Stable isotope analysis and U-Th dating of Late Glacial and Holocene lacustrine
sediments from Central Turkey (unpublished PhD thesis). University of Nottingham,
deMenocal, P.B., 2001. Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Late Holocene. Science
292, 667-673.
Djamali, M., Akhani, H., Andrieu-Ponel, V., Braconnot, P., Brewer, S., de Beaulieu, J.L., Fleitmann,
D., Fleury, J., Gasse, F., Guibal, F., Jackson, S.T., Lezine, A.M., Medail, F., Ponel, P., Roberts,
N., Stevens, L., 2010. Indian Summer Monsoon variations could have affected the early-
Holocene woodland expansion in the Near East. Holocene 20, 813-820.
Dormoy, I., Peyron, O., Nebout, N.C., Goring, S., Kotthoff, U., Magny, M., Pross, J., 2009. Terrestrial
climate variability and seasonality changes in the Mediterranean region between 15 000 and
4000 years BP deduced from marine pollen records. Clim Past 5, 615-632.
Dunning, N.P., Beach, T.P., Luzzadder-Beach, S., 2012. Kax and kol: Collapse and resilience in
lowland Maya civilization. P Natl Acad Sci USA 109, 3652-3657.
Düring, B.S., 2013. Breaking the Bond: Investigating The Neolithic Expansion in Asia Minor in the
Seventh Millennium BC. Journal of World Prehistory 26, 75-100.
Düring, B.S., Marciniak, A., 2006. Households and communities in the central Anatolian Neolithic.
Archaeological Dialogues 12, 165-187.
Eastwood, W.J., Leng, M.J., Roberts, N., Davis, B., 2007. Holocene climate change in the eastern
Mediterranean region: a comparison of stable isotope and pollen data from Lake Golhisar,
southwest Turkey. J Quaternary Sci 22, 327-341.
Ellison, C.R.W., Chapman, M.R., Hall, I.R., 2006. Surface and deep ocean interactions during the
cold climate event 8200 years ago. Science 312, 1929-1932.
Emeis, K.C., Struck, U., Schulz, H.M., Rosenberg, R., Bernasconi, S., Erlenkeuser, H., Sakamoto, T.,
Martinez-Ruiz, F., 2000. Temperature and salinity variations of Mediterranean Sea surface
waters over the last 16,000 years from records of planktonic stable oxygen isotopes and
alkenone unsaturation ratios. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology 158, 259-
Erdoğu, B., 2001. Neolithic and Chalcolithic cultures in Turkish Thrace (unpublished PhD thesis).
Durham University,
Fairbairn, A., Martinoli, D.E., Butler, A., Hillman, G., 2007. Wild plant seed storage at Neolithic
Çatalhöyük East, Turkey. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 16, 467-479.
Fernandez Lopez de Pablo, J., Gomez Puche, M., 2009. Climate change and population dynamics
during the Late Mesolithic and the Neolithic transition in Iberia. Documenta Praehistorica
XXXVI, 67-96.
Fernandez Lopez de Pablo, J., Jochim, M.A., 2010. The impact of the 8,200 cal BP climatic event on
human mobility strategies during the Iberian Late Mesolithic. Journal of Anthropological
Research 66, 39-68.
Finlayson, B., Mithen, S., Smith, S., 2011. On the Edge: Southern Levantine Epipalaeolithic - Neolithic
Chronological succession. Levant 43, 127-138.
Fleitmann, D., Burns, S.J., Mangini, A., Mudelsee, M., Kramers, J., Villa, I., Neff, U., Al-Subbary, A.A.,
Buettner, A., Hippler, D., Matter, A., 2007. Holocene ITCZ and Indian monsoon dynamics
recorded in stalagmites from Oman and Yemen (Socotra). Quaternary Science Reviews 26,
Fleitmann, D., Burns, S.J., Mudelsee, M., Neff, U., Kramers, J., Mangini, A., Matter, A., 2003.
Holocene forcing of the Indian monsoon recorded in a stalagmite from Southern Oman.
Science 300, 1737-1739.
Fleitmann, D., Mudelsee, M., Burns, S.J., Bradley, R.S., Kramers, J., Matter, A., 2008. Evidence for a
widespread climatic anomaly at around 9.2 ka before present. Paleoceanography 23.
Fuller, D., Bogaard, A., Charles, M., Filipovic, D., 2014. Macro- and micro- botanical remains from the
2013 and 2014 seasons, in: Haddow, S.D. (Ed.), Çatalhöyük 2014 archive report,, pp. 118-135.
Gaillard, J.-C., 2007. Resilience of traditional societies in facing natural hazards. Disaster Prevention
and Management 16, 522-544.
Garcia, R.V., Escudero, J.C., 1982. Drought and Man: The 1972 case history. Volume 2: The
constant catastrophe: Malnutrition, famines and drought. Pergamon Press, Oxford.
Garcia, R.V., Spitz, P., 1986. Drought and Man: The 1972 case history. Volume 3: The roots of
catastrophe. Pergamom Press, Oxford.
Garfinkel, Y., Ben-Shlomo, D., 2009. Sha'ar Hagolan. Volume 2: The rise of urban concepts in the
ancient Near East, Qedem reports. The Institute of Archaeology, the Hebrew University of
Jerusalem, Jerusalem.
Garfinkel, Y., Miller, M.A., 2002. Sha'ar Hagolan, Volume 1: Neolithic Art in Context. Oxbow Books,
Gebel, H.G.K., 2002. Subsistenzformen, Siedlungsweisen und Prozesse des sozialen Wandels vom
akeramischen bis zum keramischien Neolithikum, Philosophischen Fakultäten. Albert-Ludwigs-
Universität zu Freiburg i. Breisgau.
Gehlen, B., Schön, W., 2005. Klima und Kulturwandel: Mögliche Folgen dest "6200-Events" in
Europa, in: Gronenborn, D. (Ed.), Klimaveränderung and Kulturwandel in Neolithischen
Gesellschaften Mitteleuropas, 6700-2200 v. Chr. . Römisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum,
Mainz, pp. 53-74.
Gerritsen, F., Özbal, R., Thissen, L., 2013a. Barcın Höyük. The beginnings of farming in the Marmara
Region, in: Özdoğan, M., Başgelen, N., Kuniholm, P. (Eds.), The Neolithic in Turkey, vol. 5.
Archaeology and Art Publications, Istanbul, pp. 93-112.
Gerritsen, F., Özbal, R., Thissen, L., 2013b. The earliest Neolithic levels at Barcın Höyük,
Northwestern Turkey. Anatolica 39, 53-92.
Gillespie, R., 1984. Radiocarbon User's Handbook. Oxford University Committee for Archaeology,
Gleick, P.H., 2014. Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. Weather Clim Soc 6, 331-
Göktürk, O.M., Fleitmann, D., Badertscher, S., Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., Leuenberger, M.,
Fankhauser, A., Tuysuz, O., Kramers, J., 2011. Climate on the southern Black Sea coast
during the Holocene: implications from the Sofular Cave record. Quaternary Science Reviews
30, 2433-2445.
Gonzalez-Samperiz, P., Utrilla, P., Mazo, C., Valero-Garces, B., Sopena, M.C., Morellon, M.,
Sebastian, M., Moreno, A., Martinez-Bea, M., 2009. Patterns of human occupation during the
early Holocene in the Central Ebro Basin (NE Spain) in response to the 8.2 ka climatic event.
Quaternary Research 71, 121-132.
Goring-Morris, A.N., Belfer-Cohen, A., 2011. Neolithization Processes in the Levant:The Outer
Envelope. Current Anthropology 52, S195-S208.
Gronenborn, D., 2009. Climate fluctuations and trajectories to complexity in the Neolithic: towards a
theory. Doc Praehist 36, 97-110.
Halstead, P., O'Shea, J., 1989. Bad year economics: Cultural responses to risk and uncertainty.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Hormes, A., Blaauw, M., Dahl, S.O., Nesje, A., Possnert, G., 2009. Radiocarbon wiggle-match dating
of proglacial lake sediments - Implications for the 8.2 ka event. Quat Geochronol 4, 267-277.
Huffman, T.N., 2009. A cultural proxy for drought: ritual burning in the Iron age of Southern Africa.
Journal of Archaeological Science 36, 991-1005.
Janssen, M.A., Kohler, T.A., Scheffer, M., 2003. Sunk-cost effects and vulnerability to collapse in
ancient societies. Curr Anthropol 44, 722-728.
Johnsen, S.J., DahlJensen, D., Gundestrup, N., Steffensen, J.P., Clausen, H.B., Miller, H., Masson-
Delmotte, V., Sveinbjornsdottir, A.E., White, J., 2001. Oxygen isotope and palaeotemperature
records from six Greenland ice-core stations: Camp Century, Dye-3, GRIP, GISP2, Renland
and NorthGRIP. J Quaternary Sci 16, 299-307.
Kaniewski, D., Van Campo, E., Guiot, J., Le Burel, S., Otto, T., Baeteman, C., 2013. Environmental
roots of the Late Bronze Age Crisis. PLoS ONE 8, e71004.
Kansa, S.W., Kennedy, A., Campbell, S., Carter, E., 2009. Resource Exploitation at Late Neolithic
Domuztepe Faunal and Botanical Evidence. Current Anthropology 50, 897-914.
Kelley, C.P., Mohtadi, S., Cane, M.A., Seager, R., Kushnir, Y., 2015. Climate change in the Fertile
Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. P Natl Acad Sci USA 112, 3241-3246.
Klitgaard-Kristensen, D., Sejrup, H.P., Haflidason, H., Johnsen, S., Spurk, M., 1998. A regional 8200
cal. yr BP cooling event in northwest Europe, induced by final stages of the Laurentide ice-
sheet deglaciation? J Quaternary Sci 13, 165-169.
Kobashi, T., Severinghaus, J.P., Brook, E.J., Barnola, J.M., Grachev, A.M., 2007. Precise timing and
characterization of abrupt climate change 8200 years ago from air trapped in polar ice.
Quaternary Science Reviews 26, 1212-1222.
Kotthoff, U., Pross, J., Muller, U.C., Peyron, O., Schmiedl, G., Schulz, H., Bordon, A., 2008. Climate
dynamics in the borderlands of the Aegean Sea during formation of sapropel S1 deduced from
a marine pollen record. Quaternary Science Reviews 27, 832-845.
Kuijt, I., Finlayson, B., 2009. Evidence for food storage and predomestication granaries 11,000 years
ago in the Jordan Valley. PNAS 106, 10966-10970.
Kuijt, I., Goring-Morris, N., 2002. Foraging, Farming, and Social Complexity in the Pre-Pottery
Neolithic of the Southern Levant: A Review and Synthesis. Journal of World Prehistory 16, 361-
Leppard, T.P., 2014. Mobility and migration in the Early Neolithic of the Mediterranean: questions of
motivation and mechanism. World Archaeology 46, 484-501.
Leslie, P., McCabe, J.T., 2013. Response Diversity and Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems. Curr
Anthropol 54, 114-143.
Macchi, M., Oviedo, G., Gotheil, S., Cross, K., Boedhihartono, A., Wolfangel, C., Howell, M., 2008.
Indigenous and traditional peoples and climate change. IUCN,
Maher, L.A., Banning, E.B., Chazan, M., 2011. Oasis or Mirage? Assessing the Role of Abrupt
Climate Change in the Prehistory of the Southern Levant. Cambridge Archaeological Journal
21, 1-29.
Marciniak, A., Baranski, M.Z., Bayliss, A., Czerniak, L., Goslar, T., Southon, J., Taylor, R.E., 2015.
Fragmenting times: interpreting a Bayesian chronology for the Late Neolithic occupation of
Çatalhöyük East, Turkey. Antiquity 89, 154-176.
Marciniak, A., Czerniak, L., 2007. Social transformations in the Late Neolithic and Early Chalcolithic
periods in central Anatolia. Anatolian Studies 57, 115-130.
Marino, G., Rohling, E.J., Sangiorgi, F., Hayes, A., Casford, J.L., Lotter, A.F., Kucera, M., Brinkhuis,
H., 2009. Early and middle Holocene in the Aegean Sea: interplay between high and low
latitude climate variability. Quaternary Science Reviews 28, 3246-3262.
Mercone, D., Thomson, J., Abu-Zied, R.H., Croudace, I.W., Rohling, E.J., 2001. High-resolution
geochemical and micropalaeontological profiling of the most recent eastern Mediterranean
sapropel. Mar Geol 177, 25-44.
Mercone, D., Thomson, J., Croudace, I.W., Siani, G., Paterne, M., Troelstra, S., 2000. Duration of S1,
the most recent sapropel in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, as indicated by accelerator mass
spectrometry radiocarbon and geochemical evidence. Paleoceanography 15, 336-347.
Meze-Hausken, E., 2000. Migration caused by climate change: How vulnerable are people in dryland
areas. Migration and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 5, 379-406.
Migowski, C., Stein, M., Prasad, S., Negendank, J.F.W., Agnon, A., 2006. Holocene climate variability
and cultural evolution in the Near East from the Dead Sea sedimentary record. Quaternary
Research 66, 421-431.
Mook, W.G., Waterbolk, H.T., 1985. Handbook for Archaeologists N. 3: Radiocarbon dating.
European Science Foundation, Strasbourg.
Morrill, C., LeGrande, A.N., Renssen, H., Bakker, P., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., 2013. Model sensitivity to
North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka. Clim Past 9, 955-968.
Nieuwenhuyse, O., 2013. The social uses of decorated ceramics in Late Neolithic Mesopotamia, in:
Nieuwenhuyse, O.P., Bernbeck, R., Akkermans, P.M.M.G., Rogash, J. (Eds.), Interpreting the
Late Neolithic of Upper Mesopotamia. Brepols, Turnhout, pp. 135-145.
Nishiaki, Y., 2010. A radiocarbon chronology for the Neolithic settlement of Tall-i Mushki, Marv Dasht
Plain, Fars, Iran. Iran 48, 1-10.
Olsson, I.U., 2009. Radiocarbon dating history: early days, questions, and problems met.
Radiocarbon 51, 1-43.
Özdoğan, M., 2011. Archaeological Evidence on the Westward Expansion of Farming Communities
from Eastern Anatolia to the Aegean and the Balkans. Current Anthropology 52, S415-S430.
Peyron, O., Goring, S., Dormoy, I., Kotthoff, U., Pross, J., de Beaulieu, J.L., Drescher-Schneider, R.,
Vanniere, B., Magny, M., 2011. Holocene seasonality changes in the central Mediterranean
region reconstructed from the pollen sequences of Lake Accesa (Italy) and Tenaghi Philippon
(Greece). Holocene 21, 131-146.
Pross, J., Kotthoff, U., Muller, U.C., Peyron, O., Dormoy, I., Schmiedl, G., Kalaitzidis, S., Smith, A.M.,
2009. Massive perturbation in terrestrial ecosystems of the Eastern Mediterranean region
associated with the 8.2 kyr BP climatic event. Geology 37, 887-890.
Rasmussen, S.O., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Andersen, K.K., 2007. Early Holocene climate
oscillations recorded in three Greenland ice cores. Quaternary Science Reviews 26, 1907-
Rasmussen, S.O., Bigler, M., Blockley, S.P., Blunier, T., Buchardt, S.L., Clausen, H.B., Cvijanovic, I.,
Dahl-Jensen, D., Johnsen, S.J., Fischer, H., Gkinis, V., Guillevic, M., Hoek, W.Z., Lowe, J.J.,
Pedro, J.B., Popp, T., Seierstadt, I.K., Steffensen, J.P., Svensson, A.M., Vallelonga, P.,
Vinther, B.M., Walker, M.J.C., Wheatley, J.J., Winstrup, M., 2014. A stratigraphic framework for
abrupt climate changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland
ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy. Quaternary Science
Reviews 106, 14-28.
Reimer, P.J., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J.W., Blackwell, P.G., Ramsey, C.B., Buck, C.E., Cheng, H.,
Edwards, R.L., Friedrich, M., Grootes, P.M., Guilderson, T.P., Haflidason, H., Hajdas, I., Hatte,
C., Heaton, T.J., Hoffmann, D.L., Hogg, A.G., Hughen, K.A., Kaiser, K.F., Kromer, B., Manning,
S.W., Niu, M., Reimer, R.W., Richards, D.A., Scott, E.M., Southon, J.R., Staff, R.A., Turney,
C.S.M., van der Plicht, J., 2013. Intcal13 and Marine13 Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curves 0-
50,000 Years Cal Bp. Radiocarbon 55, 1869-1887.
Roberts, N., Boyer, P., Merrick, J., 2007. The KOPAL on-site and off-site excavation and sampling
programme, in: Hodder, I. (Ed.), Excavating Çatalhöyük: South, North and KOPAL Area reports
from the 1995-1999 seasons. The MacDonald Institute for Archaeological Research and the
British Institute at Ankara, Cambridge/Ankara, pp. 553-572.
Roberts, N., Eastwood, W.J., Kuzucuoğlu, C., Fiorentino, G., Caracuta, V., 2011. Climatic, vegetation
and cultural change in the eastern Mediterranean during the mid-Holocene environmental
transition. The Holocene 21, 147-162.
Roberts, N., Rosen, A., 2009. Diversity and Complexity in Early Farming Communities of Southwest
Asia: New Insights into the Economic and Environmental Basis of Neolithic Catalhoyuk. Curr
Anthropol 50, 393-402.
Robinson, E., Van Strydonck, M., Gelorini, V., Crombe, P., 2013. Radiocarbon chronology and the
correlation of hunter-gatherer sociocultural change with abrupt palaeoclimate change: the
Middle Mesolithic in the Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt area of northwest Europe. Journal of
Archaeological Science 40, 755-763.
Robinson, S., Black, S., Sellwood, B., Valdes, P.J., 2006. A review of palaeoclimates and
palaeoenvironments in the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean from 25,000 to 5000 years BP:
setting the environmental background for the evolution of human civilisation. Quaternary
Science Reviews 25, 1517-1541.
Rohling, E.J., Pälike, H., 2005. Centennial-scale climate cooling with a sudden cold event around
8,200 years ago. Nature 434, 975-979.
Rollefson, G.O., 1998. Expanded radiocarbon chronology from 'Ain Ghazal. Neo-Lithics 98-2, 8-10.
Rollefson, G.O., 2008. The Neolithic Period, in: Adams, R.B. (Ed.), Jordan: An Archaeological
Reader. Equinox Publishing, London.
Roodenberg, J., van As, A., Alpaslan-Roodenberg, S., 2008. Barcin Hüyük in the Plain of Yenişehir
(2005-2006). A preliminary note on the fieldwork, pottery and human remains of the prehistoric
levels. Anatolica 34, 53-60.
Roodenberg, J.J., Schier, W., 2001. Radiocarbon determinations, in: Roodenberg, J.J., Thissen, L.
(Eds.), The Ilıpınar Excavations II. Nederlands Instituut voor het Nabije Oosten, Leiden, pp.
Rooijakkers, C.T., 2012. Spinning animal fibres at Late Neolithic Tell Sabi Abyad, Syria? Paléorient
38, 93-109.
Russell, A., 2010. Retracing the Steppes: A zooarchaeological analysis of changing subsistence
patterns in the Late Neolithic at Tell Sabi Abyad, Northern Syria, c. 6900 to 5900 BC, Faculty of
Archaeology. Leiden University, Leiden.
Russell, A., Buitenhuis, H., 2008. Tell Damishliyya faunal bone report. Anatolica 34, 315-338.
Russell, N., Martin, L., 2005. Çatalhöyük mammal remains, in: Hodder, I. (Ed.), Inhabiting Çatalhöyük:
reports from the 1995-1999 seasons. McDonald Institute, Cambridge, pp. 33-98.
Schmidt, A., Quigley, M., Fattahi, M., Azizi, G., Maghsoudi, M., Fazeli, H., 2011. Holocene settlement
shifts and palaeoenvironments on the Central Iranian Plateau: Investigating linked systems.
Holocene 21, 583-595.
Scott, E.M., Bryant, C., Carmi, I., Cook, G., Gulliksen, S., Harkness, D., Heinemeier, J., McGee, E.,
Naysmith, P., Possnert, G., van der Plicht, H., van Strydonck, M., 2004. Precision and accuracy
in applied 14C dating: some findings from the Fourth International Radiocarbon Inter-
comparison. Journal of Archaeological Science 31, 1209-1213.
Shennan, S., Downey, S.S., Timpson, A., Edinborough, K., Colledge, S., Kerig, T., Manning, K.,
Thomas, M.G., 2013. Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-
Holocene Europe. Nat Commun 4.
Shennan, S., Edinborough, K., 2007. Prehistoric population history: from the late glacial to the late
neolithic in central and northern Europe. Journal of Archaeological Science 34, 1339-1345.
Sillitoe, P., 1993. A ritual response to climatic perturbations in the Highlands of Papua New Guinea.
Ethnology 32, 169-185.
Sperling, M., Schmiedl, G., Hemleben, C., Emeis, K.C., Erlenkeuser, H., Grootes, P.M., 2003. Black
Sea impact on the formation of eastern Mediterranean sapropel S1? Evidence from the
Marmara Sea. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology 190, 9-21.
Spurk, M., Leuschner, H.H., Baillie, M.G.L., Briffa, K.R., Friedrich, M., 2002. Depositional frequency of
German subfossil oaks: climatically and non-climatically induced fluctuations in the Holocene.
Holocene 12, 707-715.
Staubwasser, M., Weiss, H., 2006. Holocene climate and cultural evolution in late prehistoric-early
historic West Asia. Quaternary Research 66, 372-387.
Stevens, L.R., Wright, H.E., Ito, E., 2001. Proposed changes in seasonality of climate during the
Lateglacial and Holocene at Lake Zeribar, Iran. Holocene 11, 747-755.
Taylor, R.E., 1987. Radiocarbon dating: An archaeological perspective. Academic Press, London.
Teller, J.T., Leverington, D.W., Mann, J.D., 2002. Freshwater outbursts to the oceans from glacial
Lake Agassiz and their role in climate change during the last deglaciation. Quaternary Science
Reviews 21, 879-887.
Thomas, E.R., Wolff, E.W., Mulvaney, R., Steffensen, J.P., Johnsen, S.J., Arrowsmith, C., White,
J.W.C., Vaughn, B., Popp, T., 2007. The 8.2 ka event from Greenland ice cores. Quaternary
Science Reviews 26, 70-81.
Timpson, A., Colledge, S., Crema, E., Edinborough, K., Kerig, T., Manning, K., Thomas, M.G.,
Shennan, S., 2014. Reconstructing regional population fluctuations in the European Neolithic
using radiocarbon dates: a new case-study using an improved method. Journal of
Archaeological Science.
Turner II, B.L., Sabloff, J.A., 2012. Classic Period collapse of the Central Maya Lowlands: Insights
about human-environment relationships for sustainability. P Natl Acad Sci USA 109, 13908-
van der Plicht, J., Akkermans, P.M.M.G., Nieuwenhuyse, O., Kaneda, A., Russell, A., 2011. Tell Sabi
Abyad, Syria: Radiocarbon chronology, cultural change, and the 8.2 ka event. Radiocarbon 53,
van der Plicht, J., Bruins, H.J., 2001. Radiocarbon dating in near-Eastern contexts: Confusion and
quality control. Radiocarbon 43, 1155-1166.
van der Plicht, J., Bruins, H.J., 2005. Quality control of Groningen 14C results from Tel Rehov:
Repeatability and intercomparison of Proportional Gas Counting and AMS, in: Levy, T.E.,
Higham, T. (Eds.), The Bible and Radiocarbon Dating - Archaeology, Text and Science.
Equinox, London, pp. 256-270.
van Oldenborgh, G.J., 2015. KNMI Climate Explorer. KNMI,
Verheyden, S., Nader, F.H., Cheng, H.J., Edwards, L.R., Swennen, R., 2008. Paleoclimate
reconstruction in the Levant region from the geochemistry of a Holocene stalagmite from the
Jeita cave, Lebanon. Quaternary Research 70, 368-381.
Veski, S., Seppa, H., Ojala, A.E.K., 2004. Cold event at 8200 yr BP recorded in annually laminated
lake sediments in eastern Europe. Geology 32, 681-684.
von Grafenstein, U., Erlenkeuser, H., Müller, J., Jouzel, J., Johnsen, S., 1998. The cold event 8200
years ago documented in oxygen isotope records of precipitation in Europe and Greenland.
Climate Dynamics 14, 73-81.
Weeks, L., 2013. The Neolithisation of Fars, Iran, in: Matthews, R., Fazeli Nashli, H. (Eds.), The
Neolithisation of Iran. Oxbow Books, Oxford, pp. 97-107.
Weeks, L., Alizadeh, K., Niakan, L., Alamdari, K., Zeidi, M., 2006. The Neolithic settlement of highland
SW Iran: New evidence from the Mamasani District. Iran 44, 1-31.
Weiss, H., Bradley, R.S., 2001. What drives societal collapse? (vol 291, pg 609, 2001). Science 291,
Weiss, H., Courty, M.-A., Wetterstrom, W., Guichard, F., Senior, L., Meadow, R., Curnow, A., 1993.
The Genesis and Collapse of Third Millennium North Mesopotamian Civilization. Science 261,
Weninger, B., Alram-Stern, E., Bauer, E., Clare, L., Danzeglocke, U., Joris, O., Claudia, K.E., Gary,
R.F., Todorova, H., van Andel, T., 2006. Climate forcing due to the 8200 cal yr BP event
observed at Early Neolithic sites in the eastern Mediterranean. Quaternary Research 66, 401-
Weninger, B., Clare, L., 2011. Holocene rapid climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean. An
emerging archaeological climate research program, in: Krauss, R. (Ed.), Beginnings - New
Research in the Appearance of the Neolithic between Northwest Anatolia and the Carpathian
Basin. Verlag Marie Leidorf, Rahden, pp. 11-22.
Weninger, B., Clare, L., Gerritsen, F., Horejs, B., Krauss, R., Lindstädter, J., Özbal, R., Rohling, E.J.,
2014. Neolithisation of the Aegean and Southeast Europe during the 6600-6000 calBC period
of rapid climate change. Documenta Praehistorica.
Weninger, B., Clare, L., Rohling, E.J., Bar-Yosef, O., Bohner, U., Budja, M., Bundschuh, M.,
Feurdean, A., Gebel, H.G., Joris, O., Linstadter, J., Mayewski, P., Muhlenbruch, T., Reingruber,
A., Rollefson, G., Schyle, D., Thissen, L., Todorova, H., Zielhofer, C., 2009. The Impact of
Rapid Climate Change on prehistoric societies during the Holocene in the Eastern
Mediterranean. Doc Praehist 36, 7-59.
Weninger, B., Jöris, O., Danzeglocke, U., 2013. CalPal: Cologne Radiocarbon CALibration &
PALaeoclimate research package; Europe database. 2013 version.
Wick, L., Lemcke, G., Sturm, M., 2003. Evidence of Lateglacial and Holocene climatic change and
human impact in eastern Anatolia: high-resolution pollen, charcoal, isotopic and geochemical
records from the laminated sediments of Lake Van, Turkey. Holocene 13, 665-675.
Wicks, K., Mithen, S., 2014. The impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on the Mesolithic population of
western Scotland: a Bayesian chronological analysis using 'activity events' as a population
proxy. Journal of Archaeological Science 45, 240-269.
Wiersma, A.P., Renssen, H., 2006. Model-data comparison for the 8.2 ka BP event: confirmation of a
forcing mechanism by catastrophic drainage of Laurentide Lakes. Quaternary Science Reviews
25, 63-88.
Williams, A.N., 2012. The use of summed radiocarbon probability distributions in archaeology: a
review of methods. Journal of Archaeological Science 39, 578-589.
... After Redman, a significant strand of archaeological research subsequently addressed how deteriorating climate events have historically impacted more-than-human social worlds. These climate events include drought (Weiss 2017, Weiberg & Finné 2018, Carolin et al. 2019, Manning et al. 2020, volcanic eruptions (Riede 2008(Riede , 2017Torrence 2016), sea level rise (Astrup 2018), cooling episodes (Zhang et al. 2011, Bradtmöller et al. 2012, Flohr et al. 2015, and earthquakes (Forlin & Gerrard 2017). In this context, resilience is often measured in terms of societies' responses to climate stress, ranging from population crashes (Hodell et al. 1995, Zhang et al. 2011) and loss of complexity to less rapid change. ...
... This work has generated extensive modeling of large ranges of climate and archaeological data (e.g., Lawrence et al. 2016, Allcock 2017, Brewer & Riede 2018, Marchant et al. 2018, meaning that resilience can be studied within millennial-scale perspectives. For example, Flohr et al. (2015) studied early farming communities' responses to climate change across 2,000 years in Southwest Asia, based on 3,397 carbon-14 ( 14 C) dates. Redman & Kinzig (2003) placed the history of the ancient Mesopotamian societies within a 1,500-year cycle. ...
... The archaeological record can be fragmented or have poor resolution in comparison with contemporary ecology, and for some resilience modelers this is grounds for expressed frustration. These researchers stress that more and better resolution data are required to investigate resilience quantitatively and comprehensively (Costanza et al. 2007;Bradtmöller et al. 2012;Zimmermann 2012;Flohr et al. 2015;Carolin et al. 2019;Manning et al. 2020, p. 2). A similar frustration has been expressed in connection with the lack of terminological, methodological, and conceptual consistency in the field (Carpenter et al. 2001, p. 766ff;Brand & Jax 2007;Flohr et al. 2015;Faulseit 2016, pp. ...
The environmental crisis is rendering increasingly large areas of the planet inhospitable. As it reaches a tipping point, global warming is initiating cascades of ecological transformation, mass extinction, and irreversible damage—all of them increasingly beyond human control. To mitigate this situation, we need intellectual tools that can call on both the sciences and the humanities and spark integrated approaches that address deep-time scales. Archaeology can make a substantial contribution here. This article reviews the merits and limitations of the resilience concept in archaeology. Despite its ever-increasing relevance, resilience is still frequently understood within the framework of positivist approaches and branches of systems thinking that cannot capture our unfolding predicament and pay too little attention to the embodied historical asymmetries between more-than-human social worlds. This review identifies the potential for reformulations of resilience theory and its attendant concepts within a less positivistic and human-centered conceptual register. New translations of resilience in archaeology pave the way for more nuanced approaches to concepts of history and their sociopolitical use, as well as alternative time dynamics of historical change. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Anthropology Volume 51 is October 2022. Please see for revised estimates.
... These events were triggered by drainage of freshwater from the last remnants of the Laurentide ice sheet to the North Atlantic, and caused short-term weakening of the North Atlantic overturning circulation (AMOC), with downstream effects on oceanic and atmospheric conditions 14,15 . Given their pervasive influence and their significance at the scale of humans and ecosystems, their expression in SW Asia has long been investigated to identify potential links with Neolithic phases of socio-economic transformations 16,17 . Yet, contrasting evidence exists regarding the local impacts of these events, with some studies suggesting they were associated with droughts-especially at 8.2 ka 16 whilst others pointing to a muted or even wetter climate, sometimes within longer intervals of particularly unstable conditions 18,19 . ...
... Yet, contrasting evidence exists regarding the local impacts of these events, with some studies suggesting they were associated with droughts-especially at 8.2 ka 16 whilst others pointing to a muted or even wetter climate, sometimes within longer intervals of particularly unstable conditions 18,19 . Even more debated is OPEN the influence of such climatic events on Neolithic populations and their adaptive response, with some scholars identifying major cultural outbreaks at the time, and others suggest more complex scenarios of resilience and cultural adaptation 16,17 . ...
Full-text available
In the first millennia of the Holocene, human communities in the Fertile Crescent experienced drastic cultural and technological transformations that modified social and human-environments interactions, ultimately leading to the rise of complex societies. The potential influence of climate on this “Neolithic Revolution” has long been debated. Here we present a speleothem record from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, covering from Early Neolithic to Early Chalcolithic periods (~ 11 to 7.3 ka, 9000–5300 BCE). The record reveals the influence of the Siberian High on regional precipitation, and shows large hydroclimatic variability at the multicentennial scale. In particular, it highlights wetter conditions between 9.7 and 9.0 ka, followed by an abrupt reduction of precipitation between 9.0 and 8.5 ka, and a wetter interval between 8.5 and 8.0 ka. A comparison with regional and local archaeological data demonstrates an influence of recorded hydroclimatic changes on settlement patterns (size, distribution, permanent vs. seasonal occupation) and on the exploitation of water resources by Neolithic to Chalcolithic populations. Our record does not show prominent hydroclimatic changes at 9.3 and 8.2 ka, thus not supporting direct influence of such rapid and widespread events on the process of Neolithization and its cultural dispersal.
... At Jeita Cave (Lebanon) stalagmites record this event as an arid interlude superimposed upon a cold, wet 8.6-8.0 ka RCC (Cheng et al., 2015;Rohling et al., 2019). It is this event that has tended to dominate archaeological discussion around the drivers of contemporaneous cultural change, societal adaptation, and even societal collapse (Biehl and Nieuwenhuyse, 2016;Flohr et al., 2016;Nieuwenhuyse et al., 2016;van der Horn et al., 2015). As yet no clear correlation has been identified between the 8.2 ka event and stratigraphic discontinuities or site abandonments, instead, where relationships can be drawn, the evidence points to accommodation. ...
... The lack of evidence for societal dislocation across the 8.2 ka event has led to speculation that communities were resilient to RCCs (e.g. Flohr et al., 2016) but it is much more likely that two processes were taking place. First, that there was considerable environmental and hydrological variation across the region, with well-watered regions (where settlements tended to aggregate) being more resilient to climatic variability than regions where water stress existed. ...
Full-text available
Reconstructing environments around archaeological sites is complicated by past land management practices and regional-scale climate proxies that can be contradictory and are often located at a distance from the sites themselves. Here we explore environmental information from fossil snail shells which, even when few in number on an archaeological site, may prove invaluable in constructing site-specific data. The palaeoecology of fossil snails and the stable isotopic composition of their shell carbonate can provide context-specific information on vegetation, water availability, and relative humidity during the occupation of a site. We studied terrestrial and aquatic snails from two later Neolithic archaeological sites in the Jordanian badia, Wadi al-Qattafi and Wisad Pools. At specific archaeological site-scale our study highlights the importance of aquatic snails in the reconstruction of semi-arid environments. At Wisad pools rare aquatic snails in contexts dating between ~8.0 and ~7.6 ka demonstrate episodes of wetness; moreover, their shell isotopic compositions indicate that local watercourses were well established, corroborating previous findings that during this period the immediate environs of Wisad Pools were host to C 3 plant species more typical of the Mediterranean zone. Moreover, the δ ¹⁸ O signal in these snail shells allow tentative reconstruction of rainwater isotopic compositions and identify the effects of evaporation. Such fine-grained environmental information is much less evident from the terrestrial snail-shell data alone, showing that an ensemble of snail-shell data can be highly sensitive to environmental differentials across an archaeological site. Finally, at a regional palaeoclimate-scale our Wisad Pools snail-shell stable isotope data are consistent with a sustained, Rapid Climate Change (RCC)-driven wetness between 8.6 and 7.6 ka concurrent with cold and wet conditions in the wider Levant.
... ka cal B.P. event, there is no strong evidence for similarly dense settlements, which could be explained by some combination of two possibilities: a) the phenomenon was not intensive and/or long enough to demand a definitive and drastic change in behavioral patterns, and b) the society itself was not yet at the stage (complexity, demographic, etc.) where the pressure exerted by the event led to a definitive and drastic behavioral shift. Although there is no clear evidence of societal collapse or decline, or of long distance migrations, namely in the complex societies of the Eastern Mediterranean (Flohr et al., 2016), the western coast of Iberia likely more strongly felt its effects. ...
... After the event, these groups may have returned to their previous patterns; this may have occurred quickly because the 9.3/9.2 ka event may have lasted but a few decades (Flohr et al., 2016). At the same time, the presence of Epipaleolithic occupations with evidence of consumption of marine resources in caves located deep inland and separated by dozens of kilometers (Araújo, 2003b), suggest that these Early Holocene hunter-gatherers had, by this time, developed routes between the inland mountains and the coast. ...
Full-text available
Throughout prehistory, landscapes were repeatedly subjected to both global and localized climatic fluctuations that changed the regional environments where human groups lived. This instability demanded constant adaptation and, as a result, the functionality of some sites changed over time. In this light, the western coast of Iberia represents an exceptional case study due to the proximity between at least some oceanic cores and archaeological sites, which should facilitate an accurate reconstruction of the relationships between paleoenvironmental conditions and the coeval patterns of human behavior. This region, and in particular the valley of the River Lis, is marked by wide exposed plateaus cut by narrow and deep canyons. In this paper we present the stratigraphic, archaeometric, technological and archaeobotanical record of Poço Rock Shelter, located in one of these canyons, which hints at the human responses to such changes, and discuss the link between its Solutrean and Epipaleolithic occupations to specific activities. During the coldest part of the Last Glacial Maximum, we hypothesize that there was intensive exploitation of a chert outcrop above the roof to produce blades and Solutrean tips. Later, during Bond Event 6, after that outcrop had been exhausted, there was intensive consumption of shellfish gathered between the mouth of the canyon and the sea. We hypothesize that these strikingly different roles demonstrate how hunter-gatherers adapted to local conditions, and exploited specific resources, promising to provide a better understanding about its functional role during specific extreme climate events.
... Les sources paléoclimatiques utiliséesarchives marines ou glaciairesapparaissent de ce fait souvent indirectes et très éloignées des zones documentées par les approches historiques ou archéologiques (Cullen et al., 2000 ;Demenocal 2001 ; . D aut e part, un nombre croissant d'études met en évidence, tout en soulignant le rôle des RCCs sur les hydrosystèmes, la capacité des sociétés à être résilientes et à s'adapter aux transformations environnementales causées par les changements climatiques, suggérant ainsi des relations entre changements environnementaux et culturels bien plus complexes (Butzer, 2012 ;Carozza et al., 2015 ;Flohr et al., 2015 ;Berger et al., 2016aBerger et al., , 2016bLespez et al., 2016). Pour répondre à ces nouveaux enjeux socio-environnementaux, ces études, menées en Méditerranée orientale ou nord-occidentale, proposent de penser différemment les interactions environnement-société en développant le plus possible les études de cas gio ales, i te dis ipli ai es et i t g es. ...
... Two of these are key archaeological theory/summary papers [21,22]. This interdisciplinary group focuses on the impact of ancient climate change, which these papers discuss for the Neolithic period in SW Asia [72,74] and the Late Antique Eastern Mediterranean [73,91]. Many other key papers relating to historical climate change impacts have been published by this group, with a focus on collaboration between paleo-scientists and archaeologists/historians, especially relating to the Byzantine Empire [114]. ...
Full-text available
Archaeology is often argued to provide a unique long-term perspective on humans that can be utilised for effective policy-making, for example, in discussions of resilience and sustainability. However, the specific archaeological evidence for resilient/sustainable systems is rarely explored , with these terms often used simply to describe a community that survived a particular shock. In this study, a set of 74 case studies of papers discussing archaeological evidence for resili-ence/sustainability are identified and analysed using bibliometric methods. Variables from the papers are also quantified to assess patterns and provide a review of current knowledge. A great variety of scales of analysis, case study locations, stressors, resilient/sustainable characteristics, and archaeological evidence types are present. Climate change was the most cited stressor (n = 40) and strategies relating to natural resources were common across case studies, especially subsistence adaptations (n = 35), other solutions to subsistence deficiencies (n = 23), and water management (n = 23). Resilient/sustainable characteristics were often in direct contrast to one-another, suggesting the combination of factors is more important than each factor taken individually. Further quantification of well-defined variables within a formally-produced framework is required to extract greater value from archaeological case studies of resilience/sustainability.
... Two of these are key archaeological theory/summary papers [21,22]. This interdisciplinary group focuses on the impact of ancient climate change, which these papers discuss for the Neolithic period in SW Asia [72,74] and the Late Antique Eastern Mediterranean [73,91]. Many other key papers relating to historical climate change impacts have been published by this group, with a focus on collaboration between paleo-scientists and archaeologists/historians, especially relating to the Byzantine Empire [110]. ...
Full-text available
Archaeology is often argued to provide a unique long-term perspective on humans that can be utilised for effective policy-making, for example in discussions of resilience and sustainability. However, the specific archaeological evidence for resilient/sustainable systems is rarely explored , with these terms used simply to describe a community that survived a particular shock. In this study, a set of 74 case studies of papers discussing archaeological evidence for resilience/sus-tainability are identified and analysed using bibliometric methods. Variables from the papers are also quantified to assess patterns and provide a review of current knowledge. A great variety of scales of analysis, case study locations, stressors, resilient/sustainable characteristics, and archaeological evidence types are present. Climate change was the most cited stressor (n=40) and strategies relating to natural resources were common across case studies, especially subsistence adaptations (n=35), other solutions to subsistence deficiencies (n=23), and water management (n=23). Resili-ent/sustainable characteristics were often in direct contrast to one-another, suggesting the combination of factors is more important than each factor taken individually. Further quantification of well-defined variables within a formally-produced framework is required to extract greater value from archaeological case studies of resilience/sustainability.
Full-text available
Human-environment dynamics in past societies has been a major field of research in the Mediterranean for a long time, but has grown significantly following the increase in the number and quality of palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironmental records in the last two decades. Here we sketch the outline of this field of research based on 1,531 author keywords from 280 peer-reviewed articles published in 78 different scientific journals during 2016–2021. Sourced from the Web of Science, the selected studies cover the time span from the Neolithic to the Roman period across the Mediterranean and provide a large number of entry points for the interested reader regardless of their prior knowledge and specific interests. The results make evident the breadth and interdisciplinary nature of this research and show that it is possible to approach questions of humanenvironment dynamics in many and diverse ways. Among other things, our overview outlines the importance of temporal and spatial scales, as well as the elusive nature of causality, and highlights that monocausal models connecting climate events and societal collapse are increasingly replaced by scenarios favouring more nuanced renditions of the sequence of events within which internal societal factors are given more room for play.
Full-text available
In the article a general overview of the first Pre-Pottery Neolithic settlements of the Zagros foothills zone of primary domestication is presented. The inner Zagros area, at an altitude of more than 1000 m above sea level, is the zone of the natural habitation of the wild ancestors of cultivated plants and small ungulates. In this area there are known long-term settlements of the earliest Pre-Pottery Neolithic stage, where the formation of a productive economy is documented. These settlements are dated from the second half of X-IX millennium BC. At the same time, the foothills of the Zagros are outside the natural habitat of the ancestors of cultivated plants and domestic animals. The earliest sedentary settlements in this part of the Zagros Mountains represent the Late Pre-Pottery Neolithic stage, and are dated to the second half of the VIII millennium BC. These settlements were investigated in different natural-ecological zones - from foothill-steppe landscapes to the border with the alluvial plain of Southern Mesopotamia. At the same time, all the early Neolithic settlements of the Zagros foothills are placed in the zone of risky farming, insufficient to produce a sustainable crop in the modern conditions. This fact suggests that at the time of the initial human settlement, the humidity in this part of the Mesopotamian Lowlands was much greater than at present. The time of the primary sedentary development of the Zagros foothills and foothill plain coincides with the period of climatic optimum of the second half of the VIII millennium BC., which is currently traced both in the western and eastern parts of the Levantine-Mesopotamian lowlands. The finale of the Pre-Potery Neolithic settlements in the Zagros foothills can be associated with an exceptionally arid and sufficiently extended cycle dated from the end of VIII-VII millennium BC.
Full-text available
Many governments and organisations are currently aligning many aspects of their policies and practices to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving the SDGs should increase social-ecological resilience to shocks like climate change and its impacts. Here, we consider the relationship amongst the three elements – the SDGs, social-ecological resilience and climate change – as a positive feedback loop. We argue that long-term memory encoded in historical, archaeological and related ‘palaeo-data’ is central to understanding each of these elements of the feedback loop, especially when long-term fluctuations are inherent in social-ecological systems and their responses to abrupt change. Yet, there is scant reference to the valuable contribution that can be made by these data from the past in the SDGs or their targets and indicators. The historical and archaeological records emphasise the importance of some key themes running through the SDGs including how diversity, inclusion, learning and innovation can reduce vulnerability to abrupt change, and the role of connectivity. Using paleo-data, we demonstrate how changes in the extent of water-related ecosystems as measured by indicator 6.6.1 may simply be related to natural hydroclimate variability, rather than reflecting actual progress towards Target 6.6. This highlights issues associated with using SDG indicator baselines predicated on short-term and very recent data only. Within the context of the contributions from long-term data to inform the positive feedback loop, we ask whether our current inability to substantively combat anthropogenic climate change threatens achieving both the SDGS and enhanced resilience to climate change itself. We argue that long-term records are central to understanding how and what will improve resilience and enhance our ability to both mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, for uptake of these data to occur, improved understanding of their quality and potential by policymakers and managers is required.
Bad Year Economics explores the role of risk and uncertainty in human economics within an interdisciplinary and cross-cultural framework. Drawing on archaeology, anthropology, and ancient and modern history, the contributors range widely in time and space across hunting, farming and pastoralism, across ancient states, empires, and modern nation states. The aim, however, is a common one: to analyse in each case the structure of variability - particularly with regard to food supply - and review the range of responses offered by individual human communities. These responses commonly exploit various forms of mobility, economic diversification, storage, and exchange to deploy local or temporary abundance as a defence against shortage. Different levels of response are used at different levels of risk. Their success is fundamental to human survival and their adoption has important ramifications throughout cultural behaviour.
This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration.
If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14 C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14 C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14 C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used “uniform phase” models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.