Content uploaded by Hasan Bayram
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Hasan Bayram on Aug 03, 2015
Content may be subject to copyright.
293
K.E. Pinkerton and W.N. Rom (eds.), Global Climate Change and Public Health,
Respiratory Medicine 7, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-8417-2_17,
© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014
Abstract Climate change and desertifi cation is a global problem, and Turkey and
the Middle East region are among the mostly affected areas of the world. By the end
of this century, Turkey and the Middle East region are expected to have an increased
mean temperature about 3–5 °C and a 20–40 % decline in precipitation. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) warns that desertifi cation is
likely to become irreversible, if the environment becomes drier and the soil becomes
further degraded through erosion and compaction. According to United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP), most of areas in Turkey are under desertifi cation
and/or high potential for desertifi cation and only small parts of the areas in Turkey
are non-risky places. Climate models predict a hotter, drier and less predictable
climate for the Middle East region, and degradation and desertifi cation are expected
to accelerate due to global warming. Climate change and desertifi cation is acting as
a risk for water loss, decline in agriculture, and loss of biodiversity. Climate change
has a negative impact on human health by indirect effects including air, water, and
food supplies and by direct effects on especially elderly, children, and chronically
ill population. This chapter examines the potential impacts of climate change and
desertifi cation on the environmental parameters and human health in Turkey and the
Middle East.
Keywords Climate change in the desert • Desertifi cation • Sandstorms • Water
• Precipitation • Biodiversity • Human health • Turkey • Middle East
Chapter 17
Global Climate Change, Desertifi cation,
and Its Consequences in Turkey and the
Middle East
Hasan Bayram and Ayşe Bilge Öztürk
H. Bayram, M.D., Ph.D. (*)
Department of Chest Diseases, School of Medicine , University of Gaziantep,
Gaziantep 27310 , Turkey
e-mail: bayram@gantep.edu.tr
A. B. Öztürk, M.D.
Adult Allergy Unit , Göztepe Education and Research Hospital, Medeniyet University
Goztepe Training and Research , Kadıköy , Istanbul , Turkey
294
Climate has been changed due to increases in the average global surface temperature
of the earth from preindustrial period to present times. All areas of the world are
expected to be affected by consequences of climate change, however; the Middle
East countries including Turkey seem to feel these effects more severe because of
the long hot seasons they live and their limited natural reserves of water. Turkey is
located in the Mediterranean macroclimatic zone that lies between the temperate
and the subtropical zones at western parts, allowing the country to have widely
diverse regional and/or seasonal variations ranging from extremely cold winters to
very hot dry summers. Due to climate change impacts, widespread increases in
summer temperatures are expected to be recorded in the future. Summer tempera-
tures have been increasing mostly in the western and southwestern parts of Turkey.
Also, winter precipitation in the western parts of the Turkey has been decreased
signifi cantly in the last 5 decades [ 1 ]. According to United Nations Environment
Program (UNEP), most of areas in Turkey are under desertifi cation and/or high
potential for desertifi cation, and only small parts of the areas in Turkey are non-
risky places [ 2 ].
Climate models are also predicting a hotter, drier and less predictable climate for
Middle East region. The region is expected to get hotter across all seasons; models
predict an increase of 2.5–3.7 °C in summer and 2.0–3.1 °C in winter [ 3 ]. By the
end of this century, this region is expected to have an increased mean temperature
about 3–5 °C and a 20 % decline in precipitation. Most of the region is expected to
remain as very hot deserts under climate change scenarios. According to United
Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Report 2007/2008,
the Middle East is considered as one of the most water-stressed regions of the world
[ 4 ]. The Middle East countries including Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria,
and Saudi Arabia are also under the threat of desertifi cation [ 5 ]. Increased tempera-
ture is expected to cause greater seasonal variability, more severe weather events,
and signifi cant sea level rises. Furthermore, Mediterranean region is expected to
shift 300–500 km northward if a 1.50 °C warming will occur, which would mean
that Mediterranean ecosystem would become desert [ 6 ].
In this chapter, we review the published papers and the governmental and non-
governmental reports on global climate changes including changes in temperature,
green house gas emissions, desertifi cation and their consequences on sandstorms,
water use, and loss of biodiversity in the Middle East countries including Turkey.
The impact of such changes on human health will also be reviewed in the view of
limited number of published studies and reports referring this region.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Turkey’s energy need and demand are increasing over the years. The country’s
demand for general energy and electricity has increased by an annual rate of 3.7 %
and 7.2 % for the period of 1990–2004, respectively [
1 ]. In 2004, the ratios for coal,
biomass, oil and natural gas, hydro-geothermal and wind electricity, and other
H. Bayram and A.B. Öztürk
295
renewable sources in the total energy production were as 43 %, 23 %, 12 %, 17 %,
and 5 %, respectively [ 1 ].
Turkey lies in a sunny belt between 36 and 42 N latitudes. The yearly average
solar radiation is 3.6 kWh/m
2 /day and average sunshine duration is 2,640 h, corre-
sponding to 30 % of the year. Although the use of solar technologies is limited, solar
water heaters are commonly used. Turkey is one of the leading countries in the
world with a total installed capacity of 8.2 million m
2 collector area as of 2001. In
Turkey, the solar energy has a technical potential of 8.8 million tons of oil equiva-
lent (Mtoe) electricity generation and 26.4 Mtoe heating capacity [ 7 ]. However,
66 % of Turkey’s energy consumption is based on fossil fuels [ 1 ]. Turkey’s carbon
dioxide (CO
2 ) emission has increased by 98 % between 1998 and 2009. Although
the country’s CO
2 emission was 20.59 million tons in the year 1990, it reached to
30.90 million tons in 2004. According to the estimates in 2000, 34 % of CO
2 emis-
sion was produced by electricity generation, 32 % by industry, 17 % by transporta-
tion, and 16 % by other sectors. However, by the year 2020, it is estimated that 41 %
of CO
2 emission will be produced by generation of electricity, 33 % by industry,
13 % by transportation, and 13 % by other sectors [ 7 ]. When Turkey is compared
with other countries with respect to basic CO
2 indicators, Turkey is ranked 23rd in
total CO
2 emissions, 75th in CO
2 emissions per capita, 60th in the ratio of CO
2 emis-
sions to the gross domestic product (GDP), and 55th in the ratio of CO
2 emissions
to the GDP, measured on the basis of purchasing power parity [ 5 ].
It is thought that solar energy has the potential to equip the Middle East with
centuries of sustainable, clean electricity [ 8 ]. It has been reported that the Middle
East receives 3,000–3,500 h of sunshine per year, with more than 5.0 kW/m
2 of
solar energy per day, and that average solar radiation is about 19.23 M joules per
square meter in Iran. In Israel, over 700,000 households are reported to have solar
water heaters [ 8 ].
As a region, the Middle East produces a tiny fraction of global emissions (less
than 1 % of the world total), but on per capita basis, Israel’s emissions (11.8 metric
tons per capita) exceed the European average (10.05 tons) [ 3 ]. The amounts of CO
2
emissions of Jordon, Syria, and Iraq are 4.9, 3.3, and 4.1 metric tons per capita,
respectively [ 3 ]. However, the 88 % growth of CO
2 emissions in the Middle East
was the third largest in the world in 1990–2004 and more than 3 times faster than
the world average; most of that growth came from fuel combustion [ 6 ].
Climate Change
There have been widespread increases in summer temperatures in Turkey [ 1 ]
(Fig. 17.1 ). These increases are mostly recorded in the western and southwestern
parts of Turkey [ 1 ]. A recent study using the regional climate model, Providing
Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), suggests that the average tem-
perature in 2071–2100 will be 4–5 °C higher for coastal regions and 5–6 °C higher
for inland Turkey comparing to the average for 1961–1990, respectively [
9 ].
17 Global Climate Change, Desertifi cation, and Its Consequences in Turkey…
296
Furthermore, winter precipitation in the western provinces of Turkey has decreased
signifi cantly in the last 5 decades [ 1 ]. Although precipitation has decreased along
the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts, it has increased along the Black Sea coast of
Turkey (Fig. 17.2 ). The rainfall is also expected to be 40 % less in the West and 5 %
less in the East and the eastern Black Sea Regions, respectively [ 9 ]. On the other
Fig. 17.1 Mean annual temperature trend in Turkey (°C) (1941–2007). Trend Y = 0.0064 x + 13.474;
R 2 = 0.0422 (from Demir İ, Kılıç G, Coşkun M. PRECIS bölgesel İklim Modeli ile Türkiye için
İklim Öngörüleri: HadAMP3 SRES senaryosu, IV. Atmosfer Bilimleri Sempozyumu, 2008,
Bildiriler Kitabı, 365–373 (in Turkish). Available at:
http://www.mgm.gov.tr/FILES/iklim/ikli-
mongoruleri.pdf , with permission)
Fig. 17.2 Annual mean precipitation and its trend in Turkey (1941–2007). Trend
Y = −0.2917 x + 656.92; R 2 = 0.0079 (from Demir İ, Kılıç G, Coşkun M. PRECIS bölgesel İklim
Modeli ile Türkiye için İklim Öngörüleri: HadAMP3 SRES senaryosu, IV. Atmosfer Bilimleri
Sempozyumu, 2008, Bildiriler Kitabı, 365–373 (in Turkish). Avaliable at:
http://www.mgm.gov.tr/
FILES/iklim/iklimongoruleri.pdf )
H. Bayram and A.B. Öztürk
297
hand, high mountains in Turkey started to lose their glaciers, large lakes have
become smaller, and shallow lakes have vanished [ 10 ]. According to projections,
nearly 20 % of the surface water will be lost by the year 2030. By the year 2050 and
2100, the percentage of water loss is expected to increase up to 35 % and more than
50 %, respectively [ 11 ].
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) estimates an increase in
temperature in the Middle East up to 2 °C in the next 15–20 years and over 4 °C for
the end of the century [ 6 ]. For example, the main climate change scenarios pro-
jected for Israel by the year 2100 include a mean temperature increase of 1.6–1.8 °C,
a reduction in precipitation by −8 to −4 %, an increase in evapotranspiration by
10 %, and a sea level rise of 12–88 cm [ 12 ]. According to reports from Iran, tem-
perature has risen between 2.5 and 5 °C on average with the increase in minimum
temperature being more widespread [ 13 ]. It has been reported that southwestern
parts of the Caspian Sea, northwest and west of Iran, have experienced the highest
rate of reduction in the amount of their annual precipitation [ 13 ]. On the basis of
climate change scenarios from Saudi Arabia, the average warming in the country for
the year 2041 will be higher than the global average, and the highest warming (2.2–
2.7 °C) is expected to occur during summer in the northwestern regions. The pre-
cipitation is also expected to decrease in the entire Kingdom from December to June
[ 14 ]. According to similar climate change scenarios, the average warming in Syria
for the year 2041 will be higher than the global average. The greatest increase (2.0–
2.1 °C) will be expected to occur in the northwest and the southeast region of the
country [ 15 ]. The IPCC projections indicate that the anticipated increase in surface
temperature and reduction in rainfall will result extreme desiccation in Middle East
region [ 6 ]. It is also expected that these changes will result in a global increase in
sea levels, which are expected to rise between 0.1–0.3 m by 2050 [ 3 ].
In the Middle East, total available water resources are 262.9 billion cubic meter
(Bcm) [ 6 ]. The water defi cit is likely to increase from 28.3 Bcm in the year 2000 to
75.4 Bcm in 2030. According to projections, a temperature increase of 5 °C will
reduce the snow cover from 170,000 to 33,000 km
2 in the upland section of
Euphrates and Tigris watersheds. This is expected to reduce the discharge of the
Euphrates and Tigris rivers. An increase in temperature of Jordan by 2–4 °C is
expected to reduce the fl ow of Azraq River by 12–40 % [ 6 ].
Desertifi cation
Climatic factors that may lead to desertifi cation in Turkey were investigated by
analysis of the spatial and temporal variations of the precipitation and aridity index
series, for the period of 1930–1993. Severe and widespread dry conditions have
occurred, particularly in 1973, 1977, 1984, 1989, and 1990. Southeastern Anatolia
and the continental interiors of Turkey have been affected by desertifi cation pro-
cesses as a result of deterioration in the climatic factors. Signifi cant trends from
normal to drier conditions in annual precipitation and winter precipitation and
17 Global Climate Change, Desertifi cation, and Its Consequences in Turkey…
298
towards dry subhumid or semiarid climatic conditions have been climatic factors
that lead to desertifi cation in the Mediterranean and Aegean regions of Turkey [ 16 ].
Climatic changes impacts were also investigated in the Büyük Menderes and Gediz
River basins, and rivers’ runoff trend was analyzed between the year 1960 and 2000.
It was found that the water potency of these rivers was decreased dramatically [ 17 ].
Moreover, the salt reserve and water in Salt Lake has decreased between 1987 and
2005 as a result of a 1 °C increase in temperature between 1993 and 2005 as com-
pared with 1970–1992 [ 10 ]. However, The Mesopotamia Basin in Turkey is
expected to suffer more drastically from desertifi cation, since this area receives only
150–300 mm of rainfall annually but experiences 1,500–2,500 mm of evaporation
per year [ 18 ].
In addition to changes in climate, the factors that lead to loss of land (i.e., ero-
sion), deforestation, and soil pollution contribute to desertifi cation in Turkey. It is
estimated that 54 % of the forest land and a 59 % of prime agricultural land are
thought to be prone to erosion [ 19 ]. The total forest area in Turkey is about 21.2
million ha (27.2 % of total land); however, 49 % of this is estimated to be degraded
and unproductive [ 20 ]. On the other hand, Turkey is losing 11,500 ha of her forests
every year with an average of 1,900 fi res annually [ 21 ].
Desertifi cation is an important threat for the whole Middle East region [ 5 , 6 ,
12 – 14 ]. In Iraq, areas subject to desertifi cation are estimated to exceed to 92 % of
the total surface area. Since 1981, the percentage has increased, and this was partly
due to military operations, which had detrimental effects on the environment includ-
ing plants and the soil [ 5 ]. Syria has 25.79 km
3 renewable freshwater potential per
year, and the available freshwater amount per capita is estimated to decrease from
an amount of 2.089 m
3 in 1990 to 546 m
3 in 2050. In 1955, freshwater availability
as per cubic meter/inhabitant in Lebanon and Syria was 3.084 and 6,501 m
3 per
capita, respectively. These values were decreased to 1949 and 2.089 m
3 in 1990 for
Lebanon and Syria, respectively. The estimated values for years 2025 and 2050 for
Syria are thought to be 1,126 and 960 m
3 , whereas the corresponding fi gures for
Lebanon are expected to be 770 and 546 m
3 for years 2025 and 2050, respectively
[ 5 ]. The percentage of desertifi cated land ranges from 10 % in Syria to nearly 100 %
in the United Arab Emirates. It is estimated that the cost of soil degradation in Syria
is equivalent to about 12 % of the value of the country’s agricultural output. In
Lebanon degradation is reported to be serious on steppe mountainous land [ 5 ].
In Iran, the level of annual precipitation has decreased in the southwestern parts
of the Caspian Sea, northwest and west of the country. The amount of degradation
was reported to be 1.5 million ha in the country. If the rate of desertifi cation con-
tinues in the present trend, the amount of affected land for the year 2050 is expected
to be 75 million ha in Iran [ 13 ]. Desertifi cation is also expected to be exacer-
bated by climate change in Israel, particularly in the Judean Desert highlands and
the northern Negev [ 12 ]. Saudi Arabia is particularly vulnerable to desertifi cation,
as about 76 % of the country’s territory is nonarable lands, of which 38 % is made
up by deserts. The yearly temperature increase is expected to be 0.8–6.0 °C in
the year 2100, and as a result the rate of desertifi cation is expected to rise in this
country [
14 ].
H. Bayram and A.B. Öztürk
299
Consequences of Climate Change and Desertifi cation
Sandstorms and Dust Storms
Arid lands are considered as the signifi cant contributors of dust. The phenomenon
of sand dunes is thought to be one of the most dangerous consequences of desertifi -
cation, due to its negative impact on every vital aspect of life. Sand dunes lead to
increased sandstorms and dust storms, increased soil salinity and water logging, and
widespread rangeland degradation [ 5 ]. Sandstorms and dust storms pollute the envi-
ronment and agricultural production by disrupting the physiological functions of
plants, especially during pollination and infl orescence. Sandstorms blow from the
dune fi elds in central and southern areas of the Middle East region. It has been
reported that their incidence has increased during recent years, and although dust
storms are reported to be most common in the central plain region in Iraq and Syria
[ 5 ], they have started to affect all Middle East countries. Studies suggest that Middle
East countries such as Iraq face a severe desertifi cation problem that jeopardizes
their food security through the effects of soil salinity, water logging, loss of vegeta-
tive cover, shifting sand dunes, and severe sandstorms/dust storms [ 5 ].
It has been suggested that the introduction and expansion of rain-fed agriculture
in the Syrian steppe led to environmental consequences including formation of dust,
dust storms, sand accumulation on roads and railroads, and formation of sand
sheets, sand hummocks, and sand dunes [ 5 ]. Furthermore, dust frequency and inten-
sity are reported to have remarkably increased during the last few years in the east-
ern part of the country. The frequency and amount of sandstorms and dust storms in
Turkey and Lebanon are reported to be less than in Iraq and Syria [ 5 ]. However, in
recent years, Turkey, in particular the southeast parts of the country, has faced to
more sandstorms coming from over Syrian and Saharan deserts.
Water Use
According to estimations of population growth rate of Turkey, per capita available,
water was 250 L/day in the year 2000. With the assumption that Turkey will con-
tinue to grow and develop, this amount is expected to increase to 500 L/day in 2030
[
22 ]. The total water requirement for domestic and industrial consumption is pre-
dicted to be 25.3 and 13.2 billion m3, respectively. Per capita of potential water
resources was estimated as 3,070 m
3 /year in 1990, however; according to climate
change scenarios, the per capita of water potential will be decreased to 700–
1,910 m
3 /year in 2050. Gross irrigatable area in Turkey is 8.5 million ha, and the
whole of this area will be irrigated by the year 2030. Water requirement for this area
is estimated to be 71.5 billion m
3 ; however, in total consumption, the percentage of
irrigation is expected to drop from 75 to 65 % due to the water shortage [ 22 ]
(Table 17.1 ).
17 Global Climate Change, Desertifi cation, and Its Consequences in Turkey…
300
In global-scale assessments, basins are defi ned as being water-stressed if they
have either per capita water availability below 1,000 m
3 per year. Middle East is one
of the regions where water-stressed basins are located. The Arab region receives an
estimated 2282 billion m
3 of rainwater each year compared to estimated 205 billion
m
3 /year of surface water and 35 billion m
3 /year of groundwater [ 6 ]. Lebanon, Syria,
and southern Sudan receive as much as 1,500 mm of rainfall. Reduced stream fl ow
and groundwater recharge are expected to decrease water supply 10 % by 2050 [ 6 ].
Recent estimates of water resources in Middle East region indicate that total avail-
able natural water resources are 262.8 Bcm, of this; 226.5 Bcm is made up by surface
water and 36.3 Bcm by groundwater including 11.874 Bcm of nonrenewable ground-
water. Per capita renewable water resources in the region have decreased from
4,000 m
3 per year (year 1950) to 1,100 m
3 per year in recent years. The water defi cit
is expected to increase from about 28.3 Bcm for the year 2000 to 75.4 Bcm in the
year 2030 due to climatic and non-climatic factors [ 6 ]. Lebanon is one of the richest
countries with water in the Middle East region. The total amount of available water
is 3.992 million cubic meters in Lebanon. According to studies conducted by the
Food and Agriculture Organization of the Nations and by the UNDP, the irrigated
area of Lebanon is expected to rise to 170.000 ha by 2015 [ 5 ]. Syria has 25.79 km
3
renewable freshwater potential per year, and the available freshwater amount per
capita is predicted to decrease from 2.089 m
3 (in the year 1990) to 546 m
3 in the year
2050 [ 5 ]. According to the UNDP Human Development Report 2007/2008, the
Middle East is among the most water-stressed regions of the world [ 15 ].
Loss of Biodiversity
The Earth is made up of an ecosystem and ecological features, which are supported
by biodiversity. Higher temperatures may result in a reduction in soil fertility due to
higher rates of decomposition and losses of organic matter and may adversely affect
nutrient cycling. As a result, climate change is expected to cause the loss of biodi-
versity and undermine ecological system. Turkey is considered as one of the richest
countries of Europe and the Middle East with respect to biodiversity. The country
contains 5 % of the plant species found in the continent of Europe. Studies have
reported that there are 163 plant families covering 1,225 types, which in turn cover
Table 17.1 Gross total amount and consumable water in Turkey
Surface water
Rainfall
(mm)
Water amount
(billion m
3 /year)
Gross water potential
(billion m
3 /year)
Exploitable
(billion m
3 /year)
Turkey 643 501 186 95
From bordering countries 7 3
Groundwater 41 12
Total 234 110
From Sekercioglu CH, Anderson S, Akçay E, et al. Turkey’s globally important biodiversity in
crisis. Biol. Conserv. 2011; 144:2752–2769, with permission
H. Bayram and A.B. Öztürk
301
about 9,000 species [ 18 ]. Turkey is also reported to be rich as biodiversity with 120
mammals, 400 fi shes, 469 bird species, and 130 reptiles. Turkey has 33 % of
endemic species of totally 9,000 plant species. By factors result from climate
changes, of 3,504 endemic plants in Turkey, 12 are reported to be extinct, and 3,492
are considered to be under threat [ 23 ].
Iranian habitat supports 8,200 plant species, of which 2,500 are endemic, over
500 species of birds, 160 species of mammals, and 164 species of reptiles [ 13 ].
Although no systematic review has been conducted to show linkage between cli-
mate change and biodiversity in Iran, national documents in biodiversity have
addressed that climate change has a negative impact on biodiversity [ 13 ]. The
National Syria Strategy for Biodiversity indicates that the country has more than
3,000 animal species and 3,077 species of fl owering plants. Syria is considered as a
poor country with respect to its forests, which cover only 3 % of the total land area.
There has also been a decrease in the wooded areas of Jebel Abdel Aziz, Abou
Rajmein, and Balaas mountains, which were in the past ecosystem rich in ecologi-
cal biodiversity [ 15 ]. It has also been suggested that desertifi cation, further exacer-
bated by climate change, will widen the desert barrier to be crossed by the birds and
will make Israel less hospitable for migration of the migrants. Many Red Sea spe-
cies have colonized the Mediterranean Sea following migration through the Suez
Canal. With increased warming, more Red Sea immigrants are expected to colonize,
reproduce, and persist in the eastern Mediterranean [ 12 ]. In conclusion, the biodi-
versity is expected to further deteriorate due to climate change in the Middle East
region [ 3 ].
Human Health
Human health is adversely infl uenced by the direct and indirect effects of climate
change, and preliminary research has shown climate change has potentially direct and
indirect adverse impacts [ 24 , 25 ]. Changes in pollen releases impact asthma and aller-
gic rhinitis; heat waves may cause critical care-related diseases; climate-driven air pol-
lution increases may lead to exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease; desertifi cation increases particulate matter (PM) exposures; and climate-
related changes in food and water security impact infectious disease through malnutri-
tion [ 24 , 25 ]. Although all countries will be affected by climate change, low-resource
countries including some of the Middle East countries are expected to be more effected
by climate due to low-resource countries often lacking economic resources, having a
close dependence on natural systems for basic food and water provision, and suffering
from inadequate housing, energy, and waste management [ 25 ].
Quantifying the full impact of climate change on health is extremely diffi cult.
This is partly because many modeling techniques are still in their infancy, but partly
because impacts will depend on numerous interacting factors including other envi-
ronmental trends, social resources, and preexisting health status. In the twenty-fi rst
century, the Mediterranean area is expected to be one of the most prominent and
17 Global Climate Change, Desertifi cation, and Its Consequences in Turkey…
302
vulnerable climate change regions that will experience a large number of extremely
hot temperature events, an increase of summer heat wave frequency and duration,
and increasing summer temperature variability [ 26 ]. An increase in the frequency
and severity of heat waves is expected to enhance both illness and death rates. Using
models that estimate climate change for the years 2020 and 2050, it is predicted that
summer mortality will increase dramatically; the winter mortality will decrease
slightly, even if people acclimatize to the increased warmth [ 27 ].
However, there are only a limited number of studies investigating effects of cli-
mate change on human health [ 28 – 33 ]. During the 2006 California Heat Wave,
emergency visits for heat-related diseases and hospitalization were reported to have
increased statewide. Children (0–4 years of age) and elderly (≥65 years of age)
were found to be at the greatest risk. Emergency visits also showed signifi cant
increases for acute renal failure, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, electrolyte imbal-
ance, and nephritis [ 28 ]. Al Eskan disease, reported in Military Medicine in 1992,
is a novel and previously unreported condition triggered by the exceptionally fi ne
sand dust of the central and eastern Saudi Arabian peninsula [ 29 , 30 ]. It has been
suggested that the mixture of the fi ne Saudi sand dust and pigeon droppings trig-
gered a hyper- allergic lung condition [ 29 ]. It was concluded that sand particles less
than 1 μm (0.1–0.25 μm) in diameter were present in substantial quantities in the
Saudi sand and that these were the cause of the disease. Following the Gulf War in
1990, a similar clinicopathological entity was defi ned as “Persian Gulf syndrome”
[ 30 ]. A wide range of acute and chronic symptoms have included fatigue, musculo-
skeletal pain, cognitive problems, respiratory symptoms, skin rashes, and diarrhea
[ 31 ]. It was concluded that exposure to sand particles less than 1 μm also contrib-
uted to pathogenesis of the syndrome, which was associated with the Gulf War fac-
tors [ 30 ]. Moreover, recent studies have reported that sandstorms increase
hospitalization of children for asthma exacerbation [ 32 ].
It has been suggested that climate change may also lead to increased levels of air
pollutants such as ozone. For example, according to projections made by the North
American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program, an increase of 0.43 ppb
in average ozone concentration is expected for the year 2040 comparing to the year
2000, and this was estimated to correspond to a 0.01 % increase in mortality rate
and 45.2 premature deaths in the study communities attributable to the increase in
future ozone levels [ 33 ].
Warmer conditions may lead to increases in the incidence and extent of infec-
tious diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, schistosomiasis, and yellow fever. In
Istanbul, Turkey, leptospirosis cases increased at the warmer periods of April–May–
June, as compared to the cooler period of January–February–March in years 2004–
2006 [ 17 ]. Within the last 3 decades, the number of malaria cases was increased in
the two periods of 1977–1987 and 1993–1998 in Turkey, and this was in parallel
with increased temperature [ 1 ]. In Iran, leishmaniasis diseases showed an outbreak
during the period of 1995–2005 [ 13 ]. Furthermore, leishmaniasis is an endemic
disease in all regions of Syria since nineteenth century, and the World Health
Organization (WHO) classifi ed border areas of the country with Iraq and Turkey as
malarial high-risk areas [
15 ].
H. Bayram and A.B. Öztürk
303
Other consequences of climate change are expected to be the decreases in food
production and increases in the cost that could lead to the risk of widespread malnu-
trition and hunger in the Middle East countries. A rise in sea levels and sea tempera-
tures could also decrease the seafood stocks. Water shortages together with the higher
temperatures may increase the risk of infectious diseases such as cholera, salmonella,
and dysentery [ 25 ]. According to climate model scenarios, Iran will experience a
maximum of 1.4 °C increase in temperature during the years 2010–2039, which is
expected to increase the number of hospitalizations for diarrhea and cholera [ 13 ].
The loss of biodiversity and temperature changes may possess a risk for allergic air-
way diseases. Hence, a recent study in Turkey evaluated the effects of geo-climatic
factors on the prevalence of allergic disease in a general adult population, and it has
been demonstrated that high temperatures are associated with higher levels of aller-
gens, higher asthma prevalence, longer pollen seasons, and diversity in pollens [ 34 ] .
Conclusion
Global climate change is a serious problem and has adverse impacts on the environ-
ment and human health. However, some parts of the world such as the Middle East
region suffer more from the detrimental effects of climate change. The region faces
heat waves, water shortage, desertifi cation, dust storms, loss of biodiversity, and
their health consequences at a much severe scale. The resident countries, in addition
to their contribution to the global combat against factors leading to climate changes,
need to take local and regional adaptation and mitigation measures. Furthermore,
more research is needed to understand the scale of the problem and its impacts on
human health.
References
1. First National Communication of Turkey on Climate Change. In: Apak G, Ubay B, editors.
Turkish Ministry of Environment and Forestry; 2007:1–263.
http://www.dsi.gov.tr/docs/iklim-
degisikligi/iklim_degisikligi_%C4%B1_ulusal_bildirim_eng.pdf?sfvrsn=2 (English)
2. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). World atlas of desertifi cation. London:
Edward Arnold; 1992.
3. International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). Rising temperatures, rising ten-
sions. In: Brown O, Crawford A, editors. Climate change and the risk of violent confl ict in
Middle East; 2009:1–41.
http://www.iisd.org/publications/pub.aspx?pno=1130
4. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Human development report 2007/2008.
hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf
5. Haktanır K, Karaca A, Omar SM. The prospects of the impact of desertifi cation on Turkey,
Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. In: Marquina A, editor. Environmental challenges in the Mediterranean
2000–2050. Netherlands: Kluwer Academic; 2004. p. 139–54.
6. Elasha BO. Arab human development report. Mapping of climate change threats and human
development impacts in the Arab region. 2010.
http://www.arab-hdr.org/publications/other/
ahdrps/paper02-en.pdf
17 Global Climate Change, Desertifi cation, and Its Consequences in Turkey…
304
7. Budak DB. Analysis of renewable energy and its impact on rural development of Turkey. 2009.
http://euroqualityfi les.net/AgriPolicy/Report%202.2/AgriPolicy%20WP2D2%20Turkey%20
Final.pdf
8. Meisen P, Hunter L. Global energy network institute. Renewable energy potential of the
Middle East, North Africa vs The Nuclear Development Option. 2007.
http://www.geni.org/
globalenergy/research/middle-east-energy-alternatives/MENA-renewable-vs-nuclear.pdf
9. Demir İ, Kılıç G, Coşkun M. PRECIS bölgesel İklim Modeli ile Türkiye için İklim Öngörüleri:
HadAMP3 SRES senaryosu, IV. Atmosfer Bilimleri Sempozyumu, 2008, Bildiriler Kitabı,
365–3 (in Turkish).
http://www.mgm.gov.tr/FILES/iklim/iklimongoruleri.pdf
10. Ekercin S, Örmeci C. Evaluating climate change effects on water and salt resources in Salt
Lake, Turkey using multitemporal SPOT imagery. Environ Monit Assess. 2010;163:361–8.
11. The Ministry of Environment and Forest, Republic of Turkey. Devlet Su İşleri Genel
Müdürlüğü. İklim Değişikliği ve Yapılan Çalışmalar. 2008.
http://www.dsi.gov.tr/docs/iklim-
degisikligi/iklim_degisikligi_ve_yap%C4%B1lan_calismalar_ekim_2008.pdf?sfvrsn=2 (in
Turkish).
12. Climate Change Israel National Report under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change Impact, Vulnerability, Adaptation. 2000.
http://www.bgu.ac.il/BIDR/rio/
Global91-editedfi nal.html
13. United Nations Development Programme. Iran Second National Communication to United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 2010.
unfccc.int/resource/
docs/natc/snc_iran.pdf
14. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Second National
Communication Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 2011.
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/snc_
report_2011_kingdom_of_saudi_arabia.pdf
15. Meslmani Y. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Climate
Change Initial National Communication of Syrian Arab Republic. 2010.
http://unfccc.int/fi les/
national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/application/pdf/syria_initial_
national_communication_03feb2011.pdf
16. Türkeş M. Vulnerability of Turkey to desertifi cation with respect to precipitation and aridity
conditions. Tr J Eng Environ Sci. 1999;23:363–80.
17. Birleşmiş Milletler Kalkınma Programı İklim Değişikliği ve Türkiye. Etkiler, Sektörel
Analizler, Sosyoekonomik Boyutlar. 2007.
http://www.tobb.org.tr/Documents/yayinlar/iklim_
degisikligiveturkiye.pdf (in Turkish).
18. Sekercioglu CH, Anderson S, Akçay E, et al. Turkey’s globally important biodiversity in crisis.
Biol Conserv. 2011;144:2752–69.
19. TC Orman ve Su İşleri Bakanlığı Çölleşme ve Erozyonla Mücadele Genel Müdürlüğü.
Türkiye’deki orman durumu ve erozyon.
http://www.cem.gov.tr/erozyon/AnaSayfa/faliyetler/
erozyon/genelbilgiler.aspx?sfl ang=tr (in Turkish).
20. TC Orman ve Su İşleri Bakanlığı Çölleşme ve Erezyonla Mücadele Genel Müdürlüğü. United
Nations Convention Combat Desertifi cation (UNCCD). Turkish National Action Programme
on Combating Desertifi cation. 2006.
http://www.cem.gov.tr/erozyon/Files/faaliyetler/col-
lesme/Belgeler/Turkey_s_National_Action_Program_on_Combating_Desertifi cation.pdf (in
Turkish and English).
21. General Directorate of Forestry. 2009 Forestry statistics. 2009.
http://web.ogm.gov.tr/
Dkmanlar/istatistikler/OrmancilikIst2009.rar (inTurkish).
22. Tahmiscioglu MS, Karaca Ö, Özdemir AD, Özgüler H. Possible effect of the global climate
change on water resources and fl oods in Turkey. International conference on climate change
and the middle east past, present and future, 2006, Istanbul, Turkey.
http://www.dsi.gov.tr/
docs/iklim-degisikligi/possible_effect_of_the_global_climate_change_on_water_resources_
and_fl oods_in_turkey.pdf?sfvrsn=2
23. Kahraman A, Önder M, Ceyhan E. The importance of bioconservation and biodiversity in
Turkey. IJBBB. 2012;2:95–9.
H. Bayram and A.B. Öztürk
305
24. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: climate change 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_
data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg3_report_mitigation_of_climate_
change.htm
25. Pinkerton KE, Rom WN, Akpinar-Elci M, et al. An offi cial American Thoracic Society work-
shop report: climate change and human health. Proc Am Thorac Soc. 2012;9:3–8.
26. Kuglitsch FG, Toreti A, Xoplaki E, et al. Heat wave changes in the eastern Mediterranean since
1960. Geophys Res Lett. 2010;37:1–5.
27. 29-Kalkstein LS, Greene SC. An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large US cit-
ies and possible impacts of climate change. Environ Health Perspect. 1997;105(1):84–93.
28. Knowlton K, Rotkin-Ellman M, King G, et al. The 2006 California heat wave: impacts on
hospitalizations and emergency department visits. Environ Health Perspect.
2009;117(1):61–7.
29. Korényi-Both AL, Korényi-Both AL, Molnár AC, Fidelus-Gort R. Al Eskan disease: desert
storm pneumonitis. Mil Med. 1992;157:452–62.
30. Korényi-Both AL, Korényi-Both AL, Juncer DJ. Al Eskan disease: Persian Gulf syndrome.
Mil Med. 1997;162:1–13.
31. Coker WJ, Bhatt BM, Blatchley NF, Graham JT. Clinical fi ndings for the fi rst 1000 Gulf war
veterans in the Ministry of Defence’s medical assessment programme. BMJ.
1999;318:290–4.
32. Kantani TK, Ito I, Al-Delaimy WK, et al. Desert dust exposure is associated with increased
risk of asthma hospitalization in children. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2010;182:1475–81.
33. Chang HH, Zhou J, Fuentes M. Impact of climate change on ambient ozone level and mortality
in southeastern United States. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2010;7:2866–80.
34. Metintaş M, Kurt E, PAFRAIT study group. Geo-climate effects on asthma and allergic dis-
eases in Turkey: results of PAFRAIT study. Int J Environ Health Res. 2010;20:189–99.
17 Global Climate Change, Desertifi cation, and Its Consequences in Turkey…
