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Electoral Consequences of Political Rumors: Motivated Reasoning, Candidate Rumors, and Vote Choice during the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
Abstract and Figures
Using national telephone survey data collected immediately after the 2008 U.S. presidential election (N = 600), this study examines real-world consequences of inaccurate political rumors. First, individuals more willingly believe
negative rumors about a candidate from the opposing party than from their party. However, rumor rebuttals are uniformly effective
and do not produce backfire effects. Second, the probability of voting for a candidate decreases when rumors about that candidate
are believed, and believing rumors about an opposed candidate reinforces a vote for the preferred candidate. This belief-vote
link is not a result of the spurious influence of party affiliation, as rumor belief uniquely contributes to vote choice.
The evidence suggests political rumoring is not innocuous chatter but rather can have important electoral consequences.
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... However in general, rumors can be understood as unverified information or statements shared by among people that may be positive or negative and they circulate without confirmation [1]. Psychologically, rumors spread because people needs factual information, self enhancement, and social enhancement, as three key motivations in rumor transmission intentions [1], [2]. Consequently, rumors become an inevitable part of human life, including in political aspects, such as elections. ...
... Secondly, we performed the main simulations of the rumor dynamics in Model (1), as shown in Figure (4) and (5). The transmission rates of the rumor were based on the values of α 1 and α 2 listed in Table (2). In accordance with the numerical experiments from the previous section, the input parameters yields R 0 = 3.804 > 1, indicating the rumor will continue to circulate and remain stable in society. ...
Rumors can be defined as unverified information or statements shared by people that may be positive or negative and circulate without confirmation. Since humans naturally seek factual information for social and self-enhancement purposes, rumors become an inevitable aspect of human life, including in politics, such as elections. The complexity of the electoral process, with various factors such as individual candidates, social circumstances, and particularly the media, leads to the dynamic spread of rumors in society. Thus, it is both interesting and important to understand the dynamics of rumor spreading, particularly in the context of elections. In this article, we formulate a mathematical model of rumor spread dynamics based on different attitudes of people toward rumors. The model considers the spread of rumors about two candidates in the electoral context. From the model, we derived and investigated the basic reproductive number (R0) as a threshold for rumor spread and conducted a sensitivity analysis with respect to all the model parameters. Based on numerical experiments and simulations, it was revealed that the number of people resistant to or disbelieving in rumors increases significantly in the first ten days and remains higher than other subpopulations for at least after first seven days. Furthermore, we found that a high number of people directly affected by rumors, combined with the rumor transmission rate for both candidates being greater than each other, are necessary and sufficient conditions for rumors to circulate rapidly and remain stable in society. The results of this study can be interpreted and considered as a campaign strategy in an electoral context.
... Research from high-income democracies around the world has provided evidence of the detrimental consequences of misinformation on the conduct and outcome of elections. In theUnited States, for example, survey data from the 2008 presidential election found that the endorsement of negative rumors about Barack Obama was associated with a reduced likelihood of voting for him (Weeks and Garrett 2014). Similar evidence from Washington State (Reedy et al. 2014) and Oregon (Gastil et al. 2018) utilizing cross-sectional and panel data, respectively, revealed that disinformation influenced voter support for ballot measures on each state's electoral ticket. ...
... Individuals are more likely to believe political information that aligns with their partisan beliefs and less likely to believe information that does not align with these beliefs (Lodge and Taber 2013;Weeks and Garrett 2014), as partisan motivated reasoning drives individuals with strong political attachments to defend their existing beliefs even in the face of otherwise compelling evidence (Flynn et al. 2017;Peterson and Iyengar 2021). Political misinformation can be more difficult to counter than apolitical misinformation due to partisan attachments (Kunda 1990;Garrett et al. 2013), with the effectiveness of fact-checking methods yielding mixed results (Hameleers and van der Meer 2020;Iyengar and Hahn 2009;Nyhan and Reifler 2010). ...
The global reach of misinformation has exacerbated harms in low- and middle-income countries faced with deficiencies in funding, platform engagement, and media literacy. These challenges have reiterated the need for the development of strategies capable of addressing misinformation that cannot be countered using popular fact-checking methods. Focusing on Kenya’s contentious 2022 election, we evaluate a novel method for democratizing debunking efforts termed “social truth queries” (STQs), which use questions posed by everyday users to draw reader attention to the veracity of the targeted misinformation in the aim of minimizing its impact. In an online survey of Kenyan participants ( N ~ 4,000), we test the efficacy of STQs in reducing the influence of electoral misinformation which could not have been plausibly fact-checked using existing methods. We find that STQs reduce the perceived accuracy of misinformation while also reducing trust in prominent disseminators of misinformation, with null results for sharing propensities. While effect sizes are small across conditions, assessments of the respondents most susceptible to misinformation reveal larger potential effects if targeted at vulnerable users. These findings collectively illustrate the potential of STQs to expand the reach of debunking efforts to a wider array of actors and misinformation clusters.
... 146 Currently, applied psychology is consistently and aggressively used in media during pre-election campaigns. 150,151 Whether anti-populism or moralism is sufficient against populism 152,153 is a moot question. Selfserving attribution bias describes people's willingness to cast themselves in a favorable light [154][155][156] German sociologist Maximilian Carl Emil Weber (1864-1920) defined power as "any chance of opposing one's will against reluctance within a social relationship, as well as what that opportunity is based on". ...
Background
Tremendous achievements in healthcare and science over the past 200 years have enhanced life expectancy in parallel with a shift from dogma to humanistic liberal education. Advancements in cancer have included vaccines treating causes of cancer (eg, hepatitis C- induced liver cancer and human papillomavirus-induced cervical cancer) along with improved cancer survival in children. In contrast, developments in cancer, frequently touted as “discoveries” or “breakthroughs” in media headlines, have been demonstrated to be ephemeral rather than game changers. In reality, cancer incidences are increasing, and relapse and mortality rates have not changed substantially. By this, we are experiencing today similar challenges to those before the so-called Humboldt reform. The trend towards managerialism with a focus on quantity in health care and science endangers their integrity.
Methods
Due to the complexity of integrity of healthcare and science, in-depth contemplation of this review contains foundations of actions in healthcare and science, information regarding cancer, as an example, quantity focus of healthcare, technology, publishing, marketing and media, predatory publishers, followed by psychologic and sociologic aspects which influence our perception.
Results
A complex paradoxical transformation has occurred, in which quality and humanism have been replaced by quantity, revenue, and marketing, together with “citation silence”, (ignoring original findings), and increased corruption and misconduct. This shift explains why the integrity of healthcare and science is being eroded.
Conclusion
Countries and societies are only as strong as their healthcare and science, both of which are only as strong as their emphasis on quality and integrity. Awareness of this situation may represent a first step toward a renewed focus on accountability.
... Due to PMR, individuals may be particularly susceptible to negative information or rumors about opposing parties, which can directly influence their voting behavior (Jennings and Stroud 2023;Morris et al. 2020;Weeks and Garrett 2014). The impact of partisanship extends to misinformation, with individuals more likely to believe questionable claims that resonate with their partisan leanings and dismiss those that do not (Flynn et al. 2017;Jennings and Stroud 2023;Vegetti and Mancosu 2020). ...
Misinformation poses a significant threat to the integrity of political systems, particularly in competitive authoritarian regimes (CARs), where it can distort public perception and undermine democratic processes. This study focuses on the 2023 Turkish general elections—a context characterized by widespread misinformation. While extensive research has been conducted on misinformation in democratic systems, where press freedom and digitalization foster a mix of reliable and misleading information, this investigation targets the unique challenges and media consumption patterns in CARs. Utilizing a nationally representative survey after the 2023 elections, we examine the association between media consumption (traditional and online) and susceptibility to misinformation among government and opposition voters. Our findings reveal that partisan news consumption significantly influences belief in misinformation, with individuals tending to believe claims aligning with their political affiliations while rejecting opposing claims. Moreover, television remains a dominant source of information in Turkey, unlike social media, which shows a limited impact on misinformation beliefs but possesses a conditional corrective potential for certain electorate segments. This study underscores the enduring influence of traditional media in CARs and suggests that while the theory of selective exposure and partisanship is applicable, the constrained information environment significantly shapes public perceptions and misinformation dynamics.
El libro analiza la problemática de la violencia política de género, con especial énfasis en su manifestación en entornos digitales, como una de las principales barreras para el ejercicio pleno de los derechos políticos de las mujeres en México. A través de un enfoque multidisciplinario y contextualizado, los autores —Paulo César Lugo Rincón, Xóchitl A. Arango Morales y Felipe de Jesús Marañón Lazcano— examinan el origen histórico de esta forma de violencia, su evolución en el marco jurídico mexicano, y los retos actuales que enfrentan las mujeres en el ámbito político-electoral.
La obra se divide en cuatro capítulos: el primero contextualiza la violencia política de género y su desarrollo en México; el segundo explora el papel de las autoridades electorales en la prevención y sanción de este fenómeno; el tercero se enfoca en las dinámicas de agresión en redes sociales y plataformas digitales, donde las mujeres políticas son blanco de estigmatización, acoso y difamación; y el cuarto propone estrategias de prevención, rutas de denuncia y herramientas prácticas como el “violentómetro digital” para identificar conductas violentas.
El texto concluye que, si bien ha habido avances normativos y un incremento en la participación política femenina, persisten estereotipos, prácticas discriminatorias y brechas estructurales que requieren atención urgente. El libro hace un llamado a construir una ciudadanía paritaria y una cultura democrática donde las mujeres puedan ejercer sus derechos sin temor a la violencia ni a la deslegitimación de su voz pública.
In recent decades, scholars have made great efforts to analyse and monitor audiences’ levels of trust in news and information. To capture these levels, research has primarily relied on concepts such as news (dis)trust, media scepticism or cynicism. While these concepts provide valuable insights, they also tend to oversimplify news consumers as either trusting or distrusting of the news, thereby ignoring the presence of uncertainty and variability in news evaluations. To fill this gap, this article explores variable experiences of news doubt, moments when people feel uncertain about the accuracy of a news story. Based on 31 semi-structured interviews with news consumers, this article first empirically explores how and when news doubt is experienced. Second, at a more theoretical level, it considers whether news doubt can truly be seen as a concept distinct from other related concepts such as news distrust or media scepticism. The results show that all participants experience moments of news doubt, but that it is interpreted in different ways and caused by a variety of triggers (e.g. sensationalism, partisanship). Conceptually, the findings suggest that news doubt may have explanatory value as a theoretical concept on its own.
La desinformación durante las elecciones brasileñas de 2022 alcanzó su momento de mayor intensidad el 8 de enero de 2023, coincidiendo con un intento de asalto a las instituciones estatales. Previamente, una ola de informaciones falsas y teorías conspirativas con el claro objetivo de deslegitimar el sistema electoral y atacar a los principales candidatos fue el escenario digital que marcó las elecciones presidenciales. Este estudio examina los bulos relacionados con los comicios presidenciales de 2022 a través de las verificaciones realizadas por dos de las principales organizaciones de verificación de datos del país: Agência Lupa y Aos Fatos. La muestra comprende 219 piezas de verificación publicadas entre el 29 de agosto y el 31 de octubre de 2022. Los resultados revelan una campaña electoral marcada por bulos en formato audiovisual viralizados especialmente Facebook y WhatsApp, destacando un mayor flujo desinformador en la segunda vuelta. Asimismo, predominan los contenidos engañosos sobre los procesos de votación y el fraude electoral. Por su parte, los principales objetivos desinformadores fueron los candidatos presidenciales Lula da Silva y Jair Bolsonaro.
Communicative messages are often constructed strategically. In many cases, the creators of such messages strive to curtail specific anti-social or unhealthy attitudes and behaviors held by the target audience. However, these messages are not always successful in achieving the intended effect. Messages with a specific intent can backfire and cause an increase in the unhealthy or anti-social attitude or behavior targeted for change. We present a review of findings that have resulted in boomerang effects, broadly defined. An analysis of theoretical mechanisms for the effect eventuates in the proposal of two distinct paths to the boomerang. One path predicts that message receivers will process harmful elements in a message at the expense of those that were intended. The other path predicts that receivers will process the message as intended, but then resist complying with it. Finally, we offer a preliminary theoretical framework of boomerang effects.
Media-based fact checking contributes to more accurate political knowledge, but its corrective effects are limited. We argue that biographical information included in a corrective message, which is often unrelated to the inaccurate claim itself, can activate misperception-congruent naïve theories, increasing confidence in a misperception's plausibility and inducing skepticism toward denials. Resistance to corrections occurs regardless of initial belief accuracy, but the effect is strongest among those who find the contextual information objectionable or threatening. We test these claims using an online survey-embedded experiment (N = 750) conducted in the wake of the controversy over the proposed Islamic cultural center in New York City near the site of the 9/11 attacks, and find support for our predictions. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.
Models designed for limited dependent variables are increasingly common in political science. Researchers estimating such models often give little attention to the coefficient estimates and instead focus on marginal effects, predicted probabilities, predicted counts, etc. Since the models are nonlinear, the estimated effects are sensitive to how one generates the predictions. The most common approach involves estimating the effect for the “average case.” But this approach creates a weaker connection between the results and the larger goals of the research enterprise and is thus less preferable than the observed‐value approach. That is, rather than seeking to understand the effect for the average case, the goal is to obtain an estimate of the average effect in the population. In addition to the theoretical argument in favor of the observed‐value approach, we illustrate via an empirical example and Monte Carlo simulations that the two approaches can produce substantively different results.
Recent polls reveal that between 20% and 25% of Americans erroneously indicate that President Obama is a Muslim. In this article, we compare individuals' explicit responses on a survey about religion and politics with reaction time data from an Implicit Association Test (IAT) to investigate whether individuals truly associate Obama with Islam or are motivated reasoners who simply express negativity about the president when given the opportunity. Our results suggest that predispositions such as ideology, partisanship, and race affect how citizens feel about Obama, which in turn motivates them to accept misinformation about the president. We also find that these implicit associations increase the probability of stating that Obama is likely a Muslim. Interestingly, political sophistication does not appear to inoculate citizens from exposure to misinformation, as they exhibit the same IAT effect as less knowledgeable individuals.