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Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review
of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings
of the ClimateWater Project
Monica Garnier
1
•David M. Harper
2
•Lotta Blaskovicova
3
•Gabriella Hancz
4
•
Georg A. Janauer
5
•Zsolt Jola
´nkai
6
•Eva Lanz
5
•Antonio Lo Porto
1
•
Monika Ma
´ndoki
7
•Beata Pataki
4
•Jean-Luc Rahuel
8
•Victoria J. Robinson
2
•
Chris Stoate
9
•Eszter To
´th
7
•Ge
´za Jola
´nkai
4
Received: 10 March 2015 / Accepted: 8 June 2015
Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015
Abstract There is general agreement among scientists
that global temperatures are rising and will continue to
increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities
are the most important causes of these climatic variations,
and that water resources are already suffering and will
continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these
changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited
water resources will expand and that an increase of global
water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35–60 %
by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the
competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing
imbalance between water demand (including the needs of
nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate
change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors
using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim
Chang 3:11–12, 2013). These issues were examined by the
EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action ‘‘Cli-
mateWater’’ (bridging the gap between adaptation strate-
gies of climate change impacts and European water
policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to
minimize the water-related consequences of climate
change and assessed how these strategies should be taken
into consideration by European policies. This article
emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct
effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect
impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of
water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrol-
ogy and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could
represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change
impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are
summarized.
Keywords Climate change Water Europe Research
gaps Integrated policy
Introduction
A growing number of researchers from all Earth Sciences
agree that global temperatures are rising and will continue
to increase during this century, causing changes to global
climate patterns. They also recognize that one of the causes
of these changes are human activities and that one of the
consequences is that the area of limited water resources
will increase considerably. At the same time global water
demand is expected to increase (35–60 % by 2025 and
possibly double by 2050) because of population growth and
&Monica Garnier
monica.garnier@ba.irsa.cnr.it
1
Water Research Institute, Italian National Research Council,
Via De Blasio 5, 70132 Bari, Italy
2
Department of Biology, University of Leicester, University
Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
3
Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Jeseniova 17,
833 15 Bratislava, Slovak Republic
4
Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering,
University of Debrecen, 2-4 O
´temeto
˜Street, Debrecen 4028,
Hungary
5
Department of Limnology and Oceanography, University of
Vienna, Althanstraße 14, 1090 Vienna, Austria
6
Geonardo Ltd., Graphisoft Park building A 7 Za
´hony street,
Budapest 1031, Hungary
7
VITUKI, Environmental and Water Management Research
Institute, Kvassay Jen}
ou
´t 1., Budapest 1095, Hungary
8
ARTELIA Eau et Environnement, 6 rue de Lorraine,
38130 Echirolles, France
9
Game & Wildlife Conservation Trust, Allerton Project,
Loddington, Leicestershire LE7 9XE, UK
123
Environmental Management
DOI 10.1007/s00267-015-0544-7
the competing needs for water uses (EC 2012). The result
will be a growing imbalance between water demand (in-
cluding that needed by natural ecosystems to survive) and
supply.
To further complicate these problems, it is becoming
clear that the drivers of impacts on water resources are
interlinked. These are land use changes caused by economic
activities such as agriculture, forestry, tourism, energy pro-
duction, navigation, and last but not least demographic
development (Hansen et al. 2003). These drivers are
responsible for pressures such as water pollution, over
exploitation, and extreme events such as drought and floods
(EC 2012). Land use, together with climate change repre-
sents one of the main responsible factors for negative
impacts on water resources (Wagner et al. 2013). This,
together with the other issues and with the diffuse nature of
water problems caused by climate change, makes society’s
existing structural and system solutions mostly inadequate.
Planning and management interventions on the contrary,
aimed at preventing the causes of pollution, rather than
mediating the effects are less expensive and much more
efficient (Ripa et al. 2006). These non-structural solutions
besides, allow to obtain a no-regrets, adaptive management
approach. This kind of approach is preferable considering
the complexity of the water system and moreover, it is also
useful to contribute to ensure peace and political stability via
the water and security nexus (EC 2012).
The above considerations make it vital to regard these
issues within the policy framework. This necessity for
policy responses to tackle climate change impacts on water
is recognized worldwide (Quevauviller,2011a; Iglesias
et al. 2011); in particular, when considering that water
management is much more than water distribution and
treatment (EC 2012), it clearly emerges that options to
respond to climate change are intimately linked to a range
of policies, covering all water using sectors.
A global policy, with measures to tackle problems
related to climate change and water resources, considering
all the impacted sectors together with all the impact sour-
ces, does not exist yet. One of the main reasons suggested
for this is the rarity of science-policy integration (Que-
vauviller 2010). To bridge this gap, the role that science
plays in environmental policy making has to assume an
increasing importance. There is, in particular, the need to
guarantee better linkages between research programmes
and policy needs to ensure that outputs from research
projects do contribute to policy development, implemen-
tation, and review (Quevauviller 2011b).
A new mechanism is needed to enable dialog between
scientists and policy makers that is not naturally occurring.
It has been asserted that a key role is played by training
researchers to improve communication and transfer of
research results and training policy makers how to more
effectively use the results of scientific research (Que-
vauviller et al. 2009a,b).
Since these early considerations on the subject, much
progress has been made, the transfer of environmental
research results to the policy context has become a research
area in its own right and many papers have been published.
Reed et al. 2014, for example, identified five principles,
necessary for an effective knowledge exchange between
research producers and users that, if properly applied,
enable to significantly enhance the impact of policies and
practices in the field of environmental management. In
brief, these principles state that knowledge exchange needs
to be part of the research design process itself; the needs of
research users and other stakeholders should be systemat-
ically taken into account in the research implementation;
long-term relationships have to be built, so that reflection
and learning (that have to be part of the exchange of
knowledge process), could be sustained beyond the lifetime
of a research project.
Principles in perfect agreement with those described
above are also reported in LWEC 2012. This publication,
after underlining the importance of knowledge exchange in
maximizing and accelerating environmental research
impacts, identifies eight components, each of which rep-
resents a key stage in a successful knowledge exchange
process.
Another interesting paper (Fazey et al. 2013), also
stresses the growing importance of knowledge exchange
between researchers and policy makers in the environ-
mental field and foresee that ‘‘Research projects in envi-
ronmental management will also increasingly be required
to deliver engagement with stakeholders, consider the
diversity of understandings and perspectives involved,
encourage cogeneration of knowledge, and bridge science,
policy, decisions and practice.’’
Despite all the above mentioned knowledge transfer
problems, EU Water Policy has successfully contributed to
water protection over the past 30 years. One of the most
innovative example of this is the Water Framework
Directive (EU Directive 2000/60/EC), from now onward
WFD, together with its ‘‘daughter’’ Directive (EU Direc-
tive 2006/118/EC). The WFD, in particular, establishes a
framework for Community action in the field of water
policy. It commits EU member states to achieve ‘‘good
status’’ (which, according to this piece of legislation means
chemical and ecological status for surface waters and
chemical and quantitative status for groundwater) of all
water bodies, by 2015.
The WFD owes its innovative character mainly to its
introduction of a single system of co-ordinated objectives
to the water management process, to be met through the
implementation of integrated river basin management plans
(RBMPs).
Environmental Management
123
After the issuing of the WFD, the EU funded several
projects concerning climate change and the European
waters, with the aim of providing scientific background to
its environmental policies. The result is that a considerable
amount of EU-wide information on present and likely
future water status has been gathered.
Among these projects the FP7 funded EU Co-ordination
and support action ClimateWater (bridging the gap
between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts
and European water policies) had, as its overall aim, to
identify adaptation measures and strategies to tackle the
consequences of climate change on water resources and the
understanding of how these are taken into account by
European water policies (Jola
´nkai et al. 2012).
This paper summarizes some of the results of the Cli-
mateWater Co-ordination and support action that, accord-
ing to the author’s opinion, represent one of its main
outputs and synthesizing efforts, to try to bring them into
the public domain rather than leaving them hidden in the
final scientific report, as sometimes happen (Alcamo and
Olesen 2012). In particular, it deals with the research gaps
still existing on the direct effects of climate change on
water resources, in the understanding of the indirect effects
on those productive sectors that use massive amounts of
water and in those research fields, such as alternative sewage
treatment and ecohydrology, that may represent powerful
tools to mitigate or to adapt to climate change impacts.
The paper, nevertheless, just for the number of subjects
it deals with, does not intentionally provide a detailed
description of any of them. It rather wished to highlight the
interdependence existing in many cases among the con-
sidered research gaps, that claim the need of an integrated
approach.
The authors hope that the review could contribute to
support the EU to orient the research themes to be included
in the next calls of the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme.
Ecohydrological Strategies for Water
and Ecosystem Management
Ecohydrology (EH) is a scientific concept that links
hydrology and ecology with the aquatic, semi-aquatic, and
associated terrestrial ecosystems and their biota, at all
possible scales (UNESCO 1997). EH provides a means of
mitigating climate change impacts on aquatic environments
whilst supporting associated ecosystem services (Jola
´nkai
and Bı
´ro
´2001). Two main gaps stand out in our under-
standing of EH as a means of mitigating climate change
impacts on aquatic and linked terrestrial ecosystems. The
first one concerns the modalities for bridging the gaps in
scales that are inherent. Hydrology, needs a denser set of
gages for groundwater and surface water level information
when wetland and floodplain environments are subject to
climate change mitigation studies. The second research need
is to understand how climate change impacts may spread
from directly impacted areas and sectors to other areas and
landscape units, through extensive and complex linkages.
Total impacts are poorly estimated using only direct impacts
and research is needed on how to better identify and take into
account these indirect effects (IPCC 2007).
Three quarters of the European population lives in urban
environments and this number is increasing (Zalewski.
2007). EH application to urban river reaches needs more
intensive research, mainly aimed at increasing flood
retention capacity and flood control, together with better
retention of suspended solids and at enhancing biodiver-
sity. Another research field needing further investigation
concerns urban heat islands. These are likely to increase
with global warming, so knowledge of the devices (e.g.,
vertical gardens and green roof tops) that might mitigate
them is needed (Bass and Baskaran 2003).
Forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services and
are for this reason a land cover type of major importance for
mankind. The influence of climate change (mainly through
modifications of temperature and precipitation patterns) on
forests is inevitable. European forests dieback is already
occurring, but in many cases cannot be ascribed to one single
cause (Allen 2009). Three major information gaps, repre-
senting a starting point for EH research on forest ecosystems
have been pinpointed by Allen (2009). They are
•lack of data on global forest health. Remote sensing and
ground-based surveys are needed to determine the
status and trend of forest stress and mortality;
•limited quantitative knowledge of individual tree
species mortality as a consequence of chronic or acute
water stress, which presently are available for a few
tree species only;
•understanding of non-linear interactions between cli-
mate-induced forest stress and other climate-related
disturbance processes like insects or pests.
EH is a powerful means of countering the effect of
global warming also thorough change in agricultural
practices. The following three areas, where greater
knowledge is needed, are particularly important:
•which part of the soil profile provides water to woody
plants and how this water is hydrologically connected to
the surrounding landscape (Wilcox and Thurow 2006);
•improvement of vegetation models to a more realistic
status, taking into account the feedbacks between land
surface and the atmosphere (Hannah et al. 2008);
Environmental Management
123
•improvement of physically based hydrologic models to
better take into account plant-soil interactions.
Climate change is expected to transform habitats of
many native species, forcing animals and plants to shift
into new suitable habitats, with potential competitive
impacts. A significant knowledge gap calls for intensified
research on these issues.
Although the role and importance of ecotones and in
particular of wetland ecotones is unquestioned (Janauer
and Hary 2003; Costanza et al. 1997), with this regard
research has still to be performed, for example to better
take into account EH concepts when looking for optimal
means of enhancing or re-establishing climate change
degraded ecotones and wetlands. This in particular, is
especially necessary as these ecosystems are highly vul-
nerable even without climate change impacts (Janauer
2000).
Rivers in natural conditions develop wider and less
constrained corridors in their middle and lower reaches,
with a regular period of inundation and parts of wider
flooded areas receiving surface inundation from extreme
discharge events. These floodplain ecosystems depend
mainly on inundation with sediment-rich runoff from the
river and only to a lesser extent on groundwater dynamics.
In most European rivers, flood defense measures and
navigation utilities have restricted the lateral extent of river
corridors. A compromise, or rather complementary solu-
tion, is needed between technical water management
activities like flood defence and the maintenance of bio-
diversity-rich floodplains (Jola
´nkai and Bı
´ro
´2008). Criteria
to establish this compromise have to be found, based on the
best scientific evidence. This include full inventories with
high resolution remote sensing techniques with satellite-
based sensors.
EH is already considered in EU Directives, but often
without the depth needed to properly manage climate
change impacts. The WFD, for example, is concerned with
‘‘hydro-morphological elements,’’ but without clear
recognition of future changes. The Habitat Directive (EU
Directive 1992/43/EEC) even though potentially capable to
contribute to the mitigation of climate change effects, still
needs to be effective, several research efforts where EH
plays a key role. The foremost are
•the characterization of species consortia specific for the
favorable conservation status under climate change
conditions;
•the analysis of ‘‘key’’ species sensitive to climate
change and the assessment of their vulnerability with
reference to the conditions of the ecosystem where they
live;
•the assessment of ‘‘acceptable limits of change’’ which
have to be respected for protected environments.
Summarizing it can be concluded that the study of
ecohydrology allows to set up a series of structural and
non-structural tools, which allow the governing of the
flows and volumes of water in such a way as to improve the
resilience and functional and structural properties of ter-
restrial and aquatic ecosystems.
Research into Climate Change-Induced Causes
of Pollution
Water pollution sources are usually divided into point or
concentrated sources, attributable to point discharges,
mainly from industrial settlements and nonpoint or diffuse
sources that deliver pollutants to water bodies from whole
areas. (Leone et al. 1996; Thornton et al. 1999). The latter
mainly regards agricultural and forestry activities, the
building up of large infrastructures and urban development.
Another important difference between these two cate-
gories is the way of emission. Point sources deliver pol-
lutants to water bodies continuously, while diffuse sources
transport pollutants intermittently, for example in con-
comitance with particularly intense weather events. Storm
and flood waters, in fact, may act as triggers releasing
chemicals that are already stored in the environment (Al-
derman et al. 2012). This renders diffuse pollution impacts
more susceptible to climate change.
Intensive farming, practiced over most of Europe, rep-
resent, especially in lowland areas, the major reason for
water bodies failing to achieve the good ecological status
required by the WFD by 2015 (Sutherland et al. 2010).
Important knowledge gaps remain concerning the devel-
opment of technical methods to minimize nutrient loss.
Most of these are still in the experimental stage, at field or
small catchment level, whereas what is needed are large-
scale experiments, such as multiple field-edge sediment
and nutrient traps, or artificial wetlands, to test and
quantify nutrient reduction, in order to understand the
effects of the interventions performed in the real world to
contrast the consequences of climate change. To our
knowledge, the only large-scale project to quantify the
effects of mitigation of diffuse pollution is underway in
the East Midlands of England on two approximately
10 km
2
headwater catchments, with a third control
(GWCT 2013).
Further research is also necessary to investigate whether
drier climates are likely to produce reduced or increased
diffuse, event-based, loads. With this aim, field-scale
research should be initiated imminently (Delpla et al.
2009). It should concentrate in particular, on quantifying
the causes of increasing diffuse loads as well as tempera-
ture effects on the kinetics of chemical and ecological
processes.
Environmental Management
123
Up to now, in rural areas research, regulation and mit-
igation measures to tackle diffuse pollution has been
focused mainly on agriculture, but recently the importance
of sources associated with domestic septic tanks has been
highlighted (Withers et al. 2011). Septic tanks have a
localized impact that can last until pollutants are diluted by
seasonal flow increases. Reduced summer flows may
increase the relative importance of this source of diffuse
pollution but the mechanisms by which this occurs, the
ecological impact and the mitigation methods that might be
adopted are only starting to be investigated.
Several adaptation measures have been suggested to
deal with nonpoint pollution increase, but little is known in
quantitative terms on the efficiency or pollutant removal
capacity of these measures. This represents another pivotal
study area. With this particular reference, catchment size-
equipped pilot areas, aimed at estimating the efficiencies of
counter measures and control strategies, are urgently
needed.
Research into Alternative Wastewater and Sewage
Water Treatment and Reuse Technologies
Water scarcity and pollution in our planet has been called
upon to face in the past few decades, created a growing
need to remove substances and to reclaim energy, besides
that of course water, from wastewater. To make this pos-
sible, wastewater management had to change from a purely
engineering problem of cleaning dirty water, to a multi-
disciplinary problem. Together with this, wastewater
treatment (WWT) should be viewed as a manufacturing
process, thanks to which a number of products (e.g., bio-
plastic or methane) can be obtained, others can be recov-
ered (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus) and recycled/reused
(e.g., wastewater) (Moeller et al. 2000; de Vries and Lopez
2013).
The European Union and its member states have recently
implemented European and national regulations to enable a
sustainable water management process. Although none of
them specifically address wastewater reuse, many involve
water reuse applications; among these the Urban WWT
Directive (EU Directive 1991/271/EEC) that instructed
(article 12): ‘‘treated wastewater should be reused whenever
appropriate.’’ Even though the appropriateness of a reuse is
not legally defined, this article is important because it rep-
resents the first EU statement that acknowledges reused
water as a valuable resource.
An earlier regulation, the already mentioned WFD, pro-
motes an integrated approach to water resources manage-
ment and implicitly favors the introduction of wastewater
reclamation and reuse within national legislations.
There is undoubtedly a huge potential of water saving in
the EU (CEC 2007a,2008), so a marked shift toward
demand side management, with water loss control and
water reuse and recycling, is absolutely essential. Public
education programmes and the use of economic instru-
ments must go hand in hand with this (EEA 2010). Alter-
native supply options should only be considered once the
potential for water savings and efficiency has been
exhausted (De Vries and Lopez 2013).
A particular example of alternative supply is rainwater
or storm water harvesting, which means capturing, divert-
ing, and storing runoff water from roofs or drains and
creeks, using this water, with little or no treatment, for a
variety of non-potable purposes, such as watering gardens
and lawns or car washing (EEA 2010).
Another example is the use of treated graywater for non-
potable usages. Graywater is wastewater that has been used
in sinks, baths, showers, or washing machines, but does not
contain sewage. European citizens use unnecessarily large
amounts of expensive drinking water for unnecessary
purposes (e.g., flushing toilets or taking showers).
Expanding the use of lower quality water for other pur-
poses can indirectly save drinking water for potable uses.
Besides, in order to become more resilient to climate
change, also drinking water supplies and sanitation systems
need to be fully incorporated in integrated water resources
management.
With particular reference to drinking water the research
needs came to light during the ClimateWater project are
the same highlighted with reference to alternative WWT
and reuse technologies.
The topics examined up to this point were already
considered several decades ago not only in Europe, but
worldwide. Back in 1998, a group of scientists and
engineers met in the USA, with the aim to promote and
develop the concept of wastewater as a resource and of
wastewater reuse. At the end of the meeting several
subjects were selected as research areas that represented
good candidates for support (Moeller et al. 2000). Even
though a long time has lapsed since then, and great strides
have been made on the identified topics, these research
areas still need to be investigated. They are, in extreme
synthesis, as follows:
(a) Implementation of enhanced process control.
With this aim, technologies to increase the perfor-
mance of WWT plants and to allow them to tolerate
fluctuating amounts and types of wastes are needed.
(b) Evaluation and application of membranes for
wastewater treatment.
An enhanced solid separation from raw wastewater
allows an efficient recovery of organic matter that
can be used in energy production.
Environmental Management
123
Recent developments in the use of membranes have
allowed their application range in the field of WWT
to be extended. Nevertheless, further research in this
field is needed.
(c) Increased use of anaerobic steps in wastewater
treatment.
Anaerobic treatments present a number of advan-
tages if compared to aerobic bio-treatment processes.
They consume less energy, produce potentially
valuable by products (e.g., organic acids and
methane) and fewer bio-solids. Nevertheless, anaer-
obic treatment of raw municipal wastewater is not
widely practiced, although it is used in sludge
management.
Research in this field has to be performed with the
general objective of exploring the potential for direct
WWT by anaerobic methods, so to harness the
benefits of the processes.
(d) Expanded use of constructed wetlands for wastew-
ater treatment.
No natural or semi-natural wetland should be
degraded by using it for wastewater disposal, it
being against many existing nature conservation
regulations. It is advisable to create constructed
wetlands for the purpose. Much research into
nutrient and other pollutant removal capacity of
various elements of the wetland food chain still has
to be performed, in particular to maximize the
efficiency of these ecosystems.
(e) Study of the microbial ecology of biological treat-
ment systems.
The role of microbial populations within WWT
plants has been widely studied; Nevertheless, a clear
picture of the ecological interactions occurring
between groups of organisms and between group
of organisms and their environment does not exist
yet, although it is of a capital importance in the
establishment of a link between the dynamics of
microbial communities and the performance of the
treatment plant.
To examine the microbial communities that condi-
tion the efficiency of treatment plants, molecular
microbial ecology is a promising new field.
(f) Development of technologies for separation and
treatment of black water and gray water.
Separation of gray and black water at source will
allow the production of more concentrated wastew-
ater to be conveyed to treatment facilities for the
recovery of end-products.
Research in this field includes the development of
processes and technologies to optimize local recy-
cling of gray water and the substitution of
membranes (that provide particle size discrimina-
tion) for clarifiers that allows more effective
disinfection.
(g) Development of local reuse demonstration projects
for gray water reclamation.
In this area, research needs to be performed
•To determine the technical characteristics needed
by these small scale treatment systems, to have
the same reliability of larger treatment plants.
•To investigate if mini-reclamation systems for
gray water, deriving for example from showers
and laundries, can be built for use by apartments
and shopping centers.
•To assess the costs of operating small reclama-
tion units.
(h) Development and commercialization of molecular
sensors.
Nowadays microorganisms can be characterized at
the molecular level. Conserved gene sequences for
some key enzyme systems within microorganisms
can also be identified. This allows the presence and
activity of particular microorganisms within the
sludge, during the treatment process to be directly
monitored. Research has to be performed to integrate
molecular sensors technologies to be used in WWT
and control, in full-scale WWT plant operation.
(i) Development of the ability to disinfect waterborne
pathogens.
Waterborne illnesses may result from failures of the
water treatment system; besides some microorgan-
isms agglomerate with particulate, producing struc-
tures that protect them from disinfection. In this area,
research needs to be performed to better comprehend
the survival of pathogens and the ability of different
treatment systems to kill them.
(j) Development of methods for tracking chemicals and
microorganisms within the wastewater stream to
determine how they affect water quality.
Nutrients, heavy metals, and pathogens enter water
systems in different ways and in different amounts in
different times. Research needed in this area is
aimed at tracking these contaminants to better
determine when and how each of them enters the
water system.
(k) Identification and quantification of new risks for
WWT industry.
The effects of environmental contaminants, deriving
from WWT plants, have a strong impact on water
industry. In this field, research has to be performed to
assess the risks associated with the exposure to these
substances and to find solutions that minimize them.
Environmental Management
123
Research into Water Stress and Drought
Drought and water scarcity is not only the most severe
climate change-related issue in Southern Europe, but also
in Northern countries where water shortages are already
met, especially during summer (EEA 2010). Frequency and
rate of water scarcity and drought is projected to increase
and, to further exacerbate the problem, it has to be taken
into account that lower rainfall means lower runoff. For
example, in Algeria, a 54 % diminution of runoff was
associated with a loss of 21 % in the annual rainfall
(SOGREAH 2009).
With reference to drought and water scarcity the fol-
lowing research areas are highlighted.
Drought-Related Data Collection, Indices,
and Modeling
Decision making has to be based on high quality infor-
mation, much of which is not yet available. In particular,
capillary and improved regular hydrological monitoring is
necessary. Society also needs:
•identification of new and more effective indicators and
indices (e.g., the PaDI, Pa
´lfai 1990) to detect and assess
drought situations (Lehner and Do
¨ll 2001);
•development of tools to assess drought hazard vulner-
ability and risk under predicted future environmental
conditions (Lehner and Do
¨ll 2001);
•development of models that take into account also
social and economic scenarios likely to occur as a
consequence of climate change and that can influence
water withdrawals (UN-ECE 2009);
Water Demand Management
One of the most effective measures to increase water
availability is the detection and reduction of water losses in
the distribution systems (Dworak et al. 2007).
Another way is to increase water-use efficiency, by such
means as the development of efficient water appliances and
irrigation techniques (e.g., fog irrigation) (EEA 2010) and
the improvement of in-house and on-site water reuse
(Angelakis and Bontoux 2001). Research into water saving
bio-fuel production (Berndes 2002; Gerberns-Leenes and
Hoekstra 2010); improving land use planning with partic-
ular attention to the integration of water availability con-
cerns into farmland exploitation (Europa, web ref.);
integration of water usage issues into standards for prod-
ucts and buildings and development of fiscal incentives to
promote water efficiency are also needed (CEC 2011).
Water Supply Management
There are several alternative water supply sources that
must be given further investigation. Among the most
promising, there are treated wastewater: use of rainwater
runoff collected from urban areas (and suitably treated),
desalination of sea water in coastal areas, and novel flood
storage reservoirs. Use of groundwater not yet exploited
such as shallow and confined aquifers (together with
energy recovery mechanisms and lower energy using pro-
cesses as suggested by Green et al. 2011) are other possi-
bilities that deserve further investigation.
Another solution to the water scarcity problem is to
reduce water consumption. With this purpose it is not only
new technologies which are needed, educational awareness
of the present situation and of past technologies can also be
an essential part.
Identification of techniques utilized in the past (e.g.,
local rainwater harvesting) when and where access to water
was constrained, will also help to manage water demand
and supply (Shroff and Katiyar, 1999).
Research into Groundwater
The effects of climate change on surface water bodies are
much better known than on groundwater, yet the latter
resources continue to be over-utilized and are becoming
more degraded (Kløve et al. 2011, that quote Boulton
2005).
Studies confirm that groundwater recharge and dis-
charge conditions can, be influenced by climate change
(EC 2009a; Jackson et al. 2005). Hydro-geologists must
increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines,
such as socio-economists, agricultural modelers, and soil
scientists, to provide more detailed understanding of the
quantitative relations between climate change-induced
direct and indirect pressures on groundwater and the con-
sequent responses of the resource. With this regard,
information is needed in the following areas:
•assessment of implications of changes in precipitation
and evaporation on groundwater recharge, water levels,
and base flow in shallow, deep, and deep-confined
aquifer systems;
•assessment of hydrologic interactions between ground-
water and surface water systems, that are closely
associated with changes in river discharge and stream
flow;
•assessment of activities at the land surface that may
affect groundwater recharge rates and water quality;
(Great Lakes Water Quality Board 2003);
Environmental Management
123
•assessment of impacts of climate changes on snowpack;
•assessment of the impact of increased demand for
groundwater on sustainability of the supply and quality
of the resource (e.g., occurrence of sea water intrusion
phenomena);
With this reference, in particular, a recent study affirms
that over-extraction is in many cases a far greater threat to
aquifers that are experiencing saltwater intrusion, than is
sea level rise caused by climate change (Ferguson and
Gleeson 2012), but research has still to be performed to
better clarify the relative influence of the two causes.
The monitoring and primary data collection of ground-
waters also needs to be improved (Cieniawski et al. 1995);
in particular the accuracy and international comparability
through the designation of national groundwater monitor-
ing points (Panagopoulos et al. 2011) and the adaptation
and mitigation strategies in response to climate change
deserve further research efforts (Sukhija 2008). Overall,
groundwater management needs to move toward more
flexible risk-based approaches able to take into account the
non-stationary dynamics and statistics of the hydro-cli-
matic system (Garfin et al. 2008).
Research into Sustainable Agricultural
and Silvicultural Production in Drought-Ridden
Regions
Agriculture is not only the most significant source of dif-
fuse pollution in many areas of the planet but is also
severely impacted by the extremes (flood and drought) of
climate change (Garnier et al. 2010). Future changes in
climate patterns will thus affect all components of agri-
cultural ecosystems. Expected impacts range from changes
in crop yields and quality, to conflicts among water users
due to drought and water scarcity or loss of arable lands
due to salinization and desertification. The differences in
sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure to climate of
different agricultural ecosystems will also influence their
responses to climate change and to the adaptation measures
to be adopted.
In some regions, positive impacts of climate change on
agriculture (e.g., increase in crop productivity, opportunity
of increased water availability, and expansion of suitable
areas for crop cultivation) can be expected (Bindi and
Olesen 2011). This is the reason why adaptation strategies
should be implemented not only to reduce negative effects,
but also to exploit those potentially positive.
To cope with these issues, the uncertainty levels of
projected impacts must be reduced (Dessai and van der
Sluijs 2007; CEC 2007b; Palosuoa et al. 2011). Research
must consider a wide perspective that takes into account
the sustainability of the agricultural systems and the safe-
guard of the ecosystem services they provide. This means
finding a way to meet the growing demand for food,
energy, and fuels minimizing, at the same time, pressures
on natural resources, taking into account accelerating cli-
mate change as well. Most research has been carried out at
national level, leading to fragmented approaches across
Europe. A better co-ordination and integrated cross-border
programmes could greatly help solve these problems (EC
2009b).
As already mentioned in other chapters, improved
water-use efficiency in agricultural systems is vital.
Hydroponic farming techniques have resulted in improving
water-use efficiency (maximizing crop yield per cubic
meter of water) and helped to reduce the amount of
chemicals used for both nutrition and pest-born disease
control. Future research is needed to reduce the present
high cost and hence to improve the applicability of these
systems on a large scale in arid lands (Zayed et al. 1989). A
related theme of promising research is drought-tolerant
new seeds and their launch on the market. This seems a
particularly challenging research field because several
genes are involved in affecting how a plant uses water
(Westgate et al. 1996).
Reuse of wastewaters in agriculture has been given
some attention, but there are many problems, such as the
large amounts of suspended and dissolved organic matter
that has the potential to clog expensive irrigation equip-
ment and soil pores, resulting in poor irrigation efficiency
and water logging due to poor drainage. Besides, toxic
chemicals or heavy metals in the water from industrial
sources, and urban runoff, may interfere with crop growth
and cause bioaccumulation in food crops. Research in these
field has to find proper treatment methods and monitoring
techniques and schemes to prevent the occurrence of these
problems (UNEP-GEC 2004).
The disturbances that forests may suffer as a conse-
quence of climate change, are poorly understood and need
to be considered (Dale et al. 2001). In the past, forest and
water policies were often based on the assumption that
under any hydrological and ecological circumstances, for-
est was the best land cover to regulate seasonal flows,
ensuring at the same time water quality. Recently however,
it has been reported that forests may not be the best land
cover to increase downstream water yield (Calder et al.
2007), especially in arid or semiarid ecosystems. In a
lowland part of Hungary called Kiskunsa
´g, large-scale
forest plantation was blamed for contributing to the sig-
nificant depression of groundwater levels, due to increased
evapotranspiration. There is thus an urgent need to better
understand the interactions between forests/trees and water
and for embedding this knowledge in policies.
Environmental Management
123
Research into Palaeoflood Hydrology
Many studies make links between river hydrology and
climate change investigating, in particular the impacts of
global warming on flooding, over the last few decades
(Kochel and Backer 1982). An understanding of past cli-
mate can greatly help to anticipate the effect of potential
future climate change (natural or anthropogenic) on
hydrology and to assess hydrologic trends (USGS 2013).
One of the most promising applications of these methods
is the estimation of the recurrence intervals of large
floods. Statistical methods fail in the forecasting of these
events, when the return interval of a flood exceeds the
length of historical data sets. Paleoflood hydrology, the
study of the hydrology of past floods, allows to overcome
these difficulties in a rapid and relatively cheap way
(Kochel and Backer 1982; Baker 2008). Nevertheless,
being born at the beginning of the eighties, it is a rela-
tively new discipline and for this reasons it still presents
some gaps to be bridged. One of the approaches most
commonly used by paleoflood hydrology consists of ana-
lysing the sediment sequences of alluvial river beds on
plains, determining with radiocarbon dating methods the
ages of past river levels. These river beds are generally
unstable and have moved several meters over the past
millennia. This entails difficulties in finding the ancient
cross sections. With this aim, once suitable rivers have
been identified, a suite of palaeo-stage indicators (PSI)
need to be developed (e.g., Benito, 2003; Knox 1993,
2000).
Another research need in paleoflood hydrology is the
accurate reconstruction of past climate through the study of
stable isotope composition (e.g.,
18
O and
2
H) of past pre-
cipitations (Knox and Kundzewicz 1997).
Other challenging research areas in this field concern the
spatial transferability of data (Benito, 2003) and the
incorporation of palaeo-hydrological data in the calibration
and improvement of Global Circulation Models.
Besides palaeo-hydrological and palaeoflood studies
there are other palaeo-geological research areas that can
provide useful information on climate-water relationships
and, in particular, on fluvial responses to climatic changes.
Among these, glacier studies which can be used to assess
forcing mechanisms (e.g., solar irradiance, volcanic aero-
sols, ice sheets, greenhouse gases) for remote past glacier
activity (Davis et al. 2009). With this respect, research is
still needed aimed, among the others, at gaining additional
insight into exact timing for glacier activity and climate
forcing by targeting future work in glacier forefields in
close proximity to high-resolution climate records provided
by tree rings, speleothems, and ice cores from mountain ice
caps (Davis et al. 2009).
Research into Navigation
Climate change causes rises in sea levels and changes in
wind and wave conditions, with associated implications for
navigation and navigation infrastructures. Altered river
flows and depths are also changing the conditions of inland
navigation.
Navigation is a very old means of transportation, but
technological innovations are still possible and desirable in
this field. Research is needed to reduce vessel fuel con-
sumption, to reduce water consumption in inland channels,
and to convert navigation into a very low-GHG emission
transportation mean. This is particularly true for inland
waterway transport because it is not only heavily reliant
upon the availability of water resources, but it can also
deliver substantial contributions to adaptation efforts
through more sustainable transport. Some elements and
suggestions for further development have already been
identified, but much is still at a very early stage (EU
Symposium, Berlin 2007).
Research is also needed on the development of inno-
vative types of locks requesting limited amounts of water
and energy (Bour and Deleu 2010; SOGREAH/ARTELIA
2006). The preliminary design study of the Seine-Nord
Europe canal link, carried in 2004-2006, is an illustrative
case. A dedicated scale model of a lock was built and
successfully tested. Existing infrastructures need study, to
ensure that they will be able to deliver tomorrow the ser-
vices expected from them (Cochran 2009; McEvoy and
Mullett 2013). The World Association for Waterborne
Transport Infrastructures highlighted the issues above,
stressing the need for realistic future scenarios to be
developed by multi-disciplinary teams of navigation sci-
entists with climatologists, particularly in respect of inter-
national river basins such as the Danube, Rhine, and Elbe
(PIANC 2008).
Research into the Water-Dependent Energy Sector
Although hydropower is a mature technology and techno-
logical innovation might be somewhat limited in this field
(IRENA 2012), novelties will be needed to progressively
replace fossil fuels and face the future demand of power
whilst producing energy with very low greenhouse gas
emissions (ICER 2012). The use of hydropower may be
considered a mitigation option to reduce the consequences
of climate change on freshwater resources, but its effect
greatly depends on site-specific situations. When consid-
ering hydropower generation, the hydro-system has to be
considered as a whole, taking into account many aspects of
hydrology, biology, human behavior, and society
Environmental Management
123
(Kaufmann, 2010). An integrated approach is needed co-
ordinating the diversity of interests (flood control, hydro-
power, irrigation, urban water supply, ecosystems, fish-
eries, and navigation) to arrive at sustainable solutions.
With this reference, the following research areas need to
be further investigated:
•determination of what should be the minimum flow to
be left in rivers downstream of derivations (Sabaton
2003) and linked to this one, in the long term:
quantification of ecological water demand for all river
reaches in the EU;
•identification of solutions to the significant problem of
reservoir sedimentation (K’STATE 2008);
•recognition of adequate approaches for the restoration
of river hydro-morphology, after that the construction
of dams has compartmented rivers, considerably reduc-
ing, for example, the possibility of fish migration (EU
Council Directive 2000/60/EC);
•estimation of methane emission of reservoirs, together
with the evaluation of the carbon budget in the affected
region (IHA 2013; Guerin et al. 2006);
•improvement of the design and operation of the circuits
of water recirculation through the cooling towers of
hydropower plants, aimed at reducing the quantity of
water used (WNA 2013; Vicaud 2008).
•development of adequate energy storing systems,
including high performance batteries, compressed air
energy storage, water storage in reservoirs with use of
pump-turbines, hydrogen energy storage, heat storage,
etc. (Schoenung 1999; UNEP 2006; Flowers 1995;de
Biasi 2009).
Also the role of biomass has to be considered when
dealing with water depending energy sector. The potential
for biomass production may increase under climate change,
but intensive biomass cultivation could affect water
resources. This is the reason why for bio-energy, insight is
required also into the water demand and into the conse-
quences of large-scale plantations of commercial bio-en-
ergy crops.
Present vulnerability of the electricity production and
transmission/distribution systems under extreme events
such as storms, floods, and droughts should be assessed
(Zamuda 2013). and innovative approaches to the design of
future systems with higher robustness and efficiency should
be developed.
Research into Flood Forecast and Defence
Floods have always been a common phenomenon. Flood
protection has become readily available through the con-
struction of dams, and engineering of rivers. Over the years
this provided a false feeling of safety causing occupation
from people of many areas on floodplains (Kundzewicz
2002).
According to the authors’ opinion, flood defence is not
an issue of continually increasing dam levees, but rather of
decreasing flood risk to a level at which the costs of pre-
ventive defence measures are acceptable. With this aim, the
improvement of flood loss monitoring and the processing
of historic documents, the study of enhanced flood loss
estimations, together with the establishment of a European
wide flood disaster database are a start. Once losses are
adequately known, risks can be estimated, based on the
likelihoods calculated from measured stage data. Use of
palaeoflood data is also important (Kochel and Backer
1982; Baker 2008). A risk-based integrated basin man-
agement together with improved forecasts technologies, as
suggested by Barredo 2009, is likely to provide the basis of
flood protection in the future. In particular, flood forecast
and alert systems will play an important role in flood
protection and flood loss mitigation. This is a rapidly
developing field, thanks to the growth of numerical weather
prediction systems (NWPS) (Cloke and Pappenberger
2009). The quick development of numerical models
allowed, in fact, to perform a lot of research on this field
during the last decades. The limiting factor of forecast
accuracies still remain the NWPS that deserve, for this
reason, further developments. As much important is the
downscaling of the results for hydrological applications.
With this purpose statistical and dynamic methods can be
used, with the optimum consisting of a combination of
these techniques.
Apart from those above mentioned, that are of a more
general nature, other more specific areas where research
has still to be performed concern the
•detection of the best combinations of structural and
non-structural flood measures to reduce river peak
floods (Biemans et al. 2006);
•identification of natural solutions as floodplain rejuve-
nation and re-widening, lowland flood plain reservoirs
etc., together with a better understanding of their effects
in view of their implementation (Middelkoop et al.
2001);
•quantification of the effects of the maturity, density,
arrangement, and size of flood plain forests on flood
levels (Blackwell and Maltby 2006);
•investigation of complex approaches for lowland
floodplain reservoirs that are used for purposes other
than flood regulation (e.g., fish breeding, animal
grazing, and eco-tourism) (Koncsos 2006);
•identification of best practices for the realignment of
flood defences in estuarine areas, that is becoming a
common practice (Blackwell and Maltby 2006);
Environmental Management
123
•development of integrated impact assessment focusing
on links between climate, ecology, and hydrology
(Middelkoop et al. 2001);
•design of storm sewers and combined sewers, culverts,
runoff ponds, and reservoirs, together with studies
aimed at updating their engineering design specifica-
tions (Great Lakes 2003).
Tightly related with the above, reduction of uncertainty
and increase of the accuracy of meteorological forecasts is
another important need (Jasper et al. 2002; Werner et al.
2009). One way to reduce the uncertainty is to use
ensemble Regional Circulation Models (RCMs), in larger
numbers and for different periods (Kay et al. 2006), but
several issues remain to be resolved (Schaake et al. 2010).
When weather predictions are not available, forecasts
are based on measured data only. In these cases, using
multiple model ensembles, the uncertainty can be reduced
for short and for longer-term forecasts (Goswami et al.
2007). The development of local scale models and of
models for un-gaged rivers, to cover all river catchments
with forecast and alert systems, is necessary (Werner et al.
2009); to improve flood forecast accuracy, hydrologic and
hydraulic uncertainties also have to be addressed, besides
the meteorological ones.
The use of artificial neural networks (ANN) thanks to
their speed, represents another developing field in flood
forecasting, further leading to Time Lagged Recurrent
Neural Network Models, which can update the models with
fresh information (Parthajit et al., 2010;Lekkasetal.2004).
Concluding Remarks
The paper intended to provide an overview of the research
gaps still existing in a number of study areas related to the
relationships between climate change and water, mean-
while highlighting the various links among these areas,
together with the consequent needed to bridge the above
mentioned gaps using an integrated approach.
Climate change is an extremely complex phenomenon
determined by the interaction of anthropogenic and natural
factors and, for this reason, still needs many further
investigations. Foremost among these is the need to
improve climate change scenarios in order that they deliver
better predictions and better quantification and under-
standing of uncertainty, a factor that heavily limits the
ability to quantify future changes in hydrological variables
and their impacts on systems and sectors.
Uncertainty comes from the range of socio-economic
development scenarios, the range of climate model pro-
jections for a given scenario, the downscaling of climate
effects to local/regional scales, from impact assessment and
feedbacks from adaptation and mitigation activities.
Decision making needs to operate in the context of this
uncertainty, but it could greatly benefit from uncertainty
reduction. Our current ability to reduce uncertainty is
restricted, among the others, by limitations in our obser-
vational network. There is a need for more regular field
studies and more detailed monitoring of all water bodies.
This contrasts with the present system of water research
development of the EU which neglects, to a large extent,
many kinds of field monitoring and tends to rely on mod-
eling only. It is believed that this will not solve the prob-
lem, unless models are calibrated and verified against
repeated field parameters measurements.
Global weather prediction models are currently too
coarse for hydrology applications and need to be down-
scaled. Downscaling methods need to be further developed
also for hydrological models themselves. Even in this case,
calibration performed comparing model outputs with
observed data is needed to ensure that models reliably
represent the physical processes described.
Considering on the whole the research gaps highlighted
in the paper, it can be argued that the main limitation to
actually bridge science, policy, and practice is neither
funding nor uncertainty associated with climate change
forecasting, but rather the lack of an effective two way
knowledge exchange between researchers and policy
makers (LWEC 2012). To testify, in particular the impor-
tance of the transfer of research results to the policy context,
the fact that this has become a study area in its own right and
many papers have recently been published on the topic.
Always considering altogether the research needs
stressed in the present paper, it can be also inferred that
successful adaptation strategies have to follow a common
and integrated approach that covers measures in all water-
related sectors and in particular in sectors that are strongly
dependent on the availability of considerable quantities of
water such as agriculture, electricity production, inland
navigation, but also water reuse and the preservation of
water-dependent ecosystems. Such an approach, named by
some authors ecohydrological approach (Harper et al.
2008), supported by research work, will provide successful
win–win solutions, avoiding in the meanwhile cross-sec-
torial feedbacks of some measures or the consequences of
non-actions. The use of an integrated approach would,
moreover, avoid waste of time and money. Ecohydrology
also provides the framework for partnerships between
stakeholders, government, and researchers, aimed at
preparing and implementing policies, which will encourage
and promote the execution of the adaptation measures,
taking into consideration, at the same time, environmental
and social pressures.
Any adaptation measures necessary can not be imple-
mented without a preliminary, constructive discussion
between all involved parties and it is likewise shared opinion
Environmental Management
123
that the discussion has to be supported by high-quality,
independent scientific research on impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation measures everybody can trust. In particular, the
involvement of the general public through, for example,
educational public campaigns on the formulated adaptation
measures, before their adoption, greatly influences public
acceptance and cooperation that are essential to make the
planned measures effective. Research should aim at
preparing adaptation measures of ‘‘no-regret’’ decision type;
policies should then be prepared to foster and facilitate the
implementation of these adaptation strategies.
Acknowledgments The authors gratefully acknowledge the finan-
cial support of the European Commission through the FP7 Cli-
mateWater Project: ‘‘Bridging the gap between adaptation strategies
of climate change impacts and European water policies’’ (Grant
Agreement No. 211894). Collaborations and contributions from all
project partners are also thankfully acknowledged.
Conflict of interest The Corresponding author declares, on behalf
of all authors, that they have no conflict of interest.
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