Vision and Inital Feasibility Analysis of a Recarbonised Finnish Energy System

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Presentation on the occasion of the World Conference of Futures Research 2015: Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems (17th International Futures Conference) in Turku on June 11, 2015.

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... For these reasons, an energy system based entirely on renewable resources was considered in previous work by the authors [5]. The scenario of a 100% renewable energy system was seen as being highly cost competitive to those with increasing shares of nuclear power installed capacity as well as a Business As Usual scenario. ...
... The EnergyPLAN advanced energy system analysis computer model [7] was used to represent a 100% RE scenario for Finland in 2050. This scenario was one of several used in the study by Child and Breyer [5], and was selected for the case of a basic biomass resource availability for further detailed analysis as it represented the most cost competitive of the scenarios studied. A thorough description of the tool used and the scenario parameters can be found in [5]. ...
... This scenario was one of several used in the study by Child and Breyer [5], and was selected for the case of a basic biomass resource availability for further detailed analysis as it represented the most cost competitive of the scenarios studied. A thorough description of the tool used and the scenario parameters can be found in [5]. In addition, the main inputs to EnergyPLAN for the 100% RE scenario can be found in [6] as well as a summary of important assumptions and scenario parameters. ...
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A 100% renewable energy scenario was developed for Finland in 2050 using the EnergyPLAN modelling tool to find a suitable, least-cost configuration. Hourly data analysis determined the roles of various energy storage solutions. Electricity and heat from storage represented 15% of end-user demand. Thermal storage discharge was 4% of end-user heat demand. In the power sector, 21% of demand was satisfied by electricity storage discharge, with the majority (87%) coming from vehicle-to-grid (V2G) connections. Grid gas storage discharge represented 26% of gas demand. This suggests that storage solutions will be an important part of a 100% renewable Finnish energy system.
... CHP generation in colder months also complements solar PV. Storage technologies add considerable flexibility to system (Child & Breyer 2016). ...
Technical Report
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This report presents the results of an International Symposium "Clean Disruption for Abundant Futures", which was organised as a futures clinique of the Neo-Carbon Energy project and Summer School of the Finland Futures Academy, as well as Helsinki Node’s Millennium Forum at Museum of Contemporary Arts Kiasma, Helsinki, June 7–8, 2016. The two-day futures clinique focused on the topics of energy, internet, clean disruption, new organisation practices and futures of communities. The objective of the event was to address possible futures and related societal transition towards the convergence of energy and internet. In the clinique, abundant futures defines the stance towards futures, as ample resources would be available in such a system. This, in turn, affects social relations and communities of the future. The clinique generated futures dialogue that consisted of expert lectures, commenting and discussion, as well as intermittent working sessions in small groups. The keynote speeches gave input for the group work, where participants probed the abundant futures in six breakout groups. The four transformational scenarios of the Neo-Carbon Energy project were used as material for the groups’ foresight work. This dialogue and elaborations on abundant futures and renewable energy are documented in this report. Four recurring themes can be identified from the group work. Perhaps the most common is the idea of so-called “post-institutional” future of tribal-like communities. Another frequent theme is the change of the concept of work through i.e. automatisation and hybridisation of work and leisure. The third theme describes immaterial values and the significance of meaningfulness. Finally, the fourth theme identified in the results addresses the possible social drawbacks of the future. Consequently, the clean disruption for abundant futures is a cornucopia with huge potential, but by no means automatically only beneficial. Critical mindset is needed both for the decision phase and implementation ways of clean disruptive technologies, practices, lifestyles, and regulation.
... The boundary values for this work are extracted mainly from a 100% renewable energy scenario for Finland in 2050 by Child and Breyer [2], which contains heat, electricity and transport demand for private households and industry. In the scenario, a large portion of electricity is produced by using wind (105 TWh), followed by photovoltaics (40 TWh) and hydropower (20 TWh). ...
... Energy storage is seen as a cornerstone of the green energy revolution [1,2]. The intermittent nature of solar and wind resources can be overcome with different types of flexibility (supply side management, demand side management, grids, sector coupling, storage), thereof energy storage is regarded as one of the most important, enabling a faster transition towards a 100% renewable energy system [3,4,5]. With the increase in global installed capacities of renewable energy power plants, there is a surge in demand for energy storage capacities. ...
Conference Paper
Saudi Arabia can transition to a 100% renewable energy system by 2040 including the integration of the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Single-axis tracking PV and battery storage contribute the highest to the final LCOE of the system. By 2050, single-axis tracking PV accounts for 77% of the total electricity generation. Battery storage accounts for 44% of the total electricity demand. Desalination plants provide additional flexibility to the energy system. Through sensitivity analysis, it is found that decreasing the capex of desalination plants results in a decrease in battery storage output and ultimately the total system capex throughout the transition. However, the required SWRO capex decrease seems to be higher than possible, leading to a lower cost flexibility provided by solar PV and battery storage than possible by very low cost water storage. This is because the relatively more expensive SWRO desalination prefers baseload operation for total energy system cost reasons.
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High shares of renewable energy, particularly wind power, were modelled in several future scenarios for the Scottish energy system. In the first part of this work, it was determined that Scotland could produce the equivalent baseload power for supply to England at a lower overall cost (99 €/MWh) than the proposed subsidized price (112 €/MWh) to be paid for electricity generated from the proposed Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant. This cost includes all extra generation capacity and transmission lines. In the second part of this work, it was determined that a 100% renewable energy system could be achieved at an annualized cost of 10.7 b€/a, approximately 8% less than the 11.7 b€/a expected for an energy system composed of 75% renewable energy. In the 100% renewable energy system, cost savings are achieved through effective energy storage, sector integration, and flexible generation from dispatchable renewable energy resources, such as hydropower (1.7 GWe), bioenergy, and synthetic fuels. Complementary resources to 23.4 GWe of wind power also included solar photovoltaics (10.1 GWe), tidal power (1.5 GWe), and wave power (0.3 GWe). It was also determined that carbon capture and utilization would be a preferable strategy to carbon capture and storage for Scotland. Complete defossilization of the Scottish energy system appears feasible by 2050, given the assumptions used in this study.
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In this paper, district heating scenarios towards carbon neutral district heat production in 2050 were formed for Helsinki region, Warsaw and Kaunas based on the plans and goals of the studied cities and the companies supplying district heat in these regions. It was found that increased use of biomass and waste as well as utilization of geothermal and waste heat could be expected in the studied regions in the future. Increased energy efficiency and carbon capture and storage technologies could also be utilized. According to the results, the annual emissions in Helsinki region could be cut by 90% by 2050 compared to the reference case and the average heat production costs increase only by 16%. In Warsaw, emissions were cut by 75% by 2050 but the heat production costs increased by 40%. In Kaunas, emissions can be cut from 0.102 to 0.087 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2050 with modest cost increase (29%). Yet, if the emissions are cut to zero, the marginal heat production costs increase by 55%. The cost increase thus depends strongly on the case and in order to limit the increase of heating costs and energy poverty, diversified use of different technologies should be considered.
Conference Paper
How energy is produced and consumed affects the whole society and cannot be dealt with as solely technical or economical issue. In this paper we look at the renewable energy systems in year 2050 through society scenario descriptions. We describe a framework for electricity market design in four transformative, qualitative scenarios and assess of possible market design outcomes. In the process, we highlight the key issues in determining applicable market designs.
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