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Exploring adaptation choices for grapevine regions in Spain

Abstract

Our aim was to explore the adaptation choices to climate change in the grapevine regions of Spain from two points of view. First, what are the main reasons for concern? Second, how large is the adaptation effort in each region? We address the first question by measuring sensitivity to climate change with Huglin, Cold Night and Dryness Indices over the entire territory, providing information on the adaptation type (e.g. varieties, zoning, water allocation). We then estimate probabilistic projections across scenario, zone and sensitivity indices in the 56 Protected Designation of Origin areas to inform on the magnitude of the adaptation effort. Second, we propose an adaptation effort measure that is framed according to the local environmental context. Results suggest that most areas urgently need an adaptation plan due to the deterioration of production and quality indices as a result of climate change. Potential opportunities in many climate regions might be limited by current policy. The production objectives of quality and quantity trade-offs will probably need to be revised by analysing the sustainability of grapevine production.
1 23
Regional Environmental Change
ISSN 1436-3798
Volume 16
Number 4
Reg Environ Change (2016) 16:979-993
DOI 10.1007/s10113-015-0811-4
Exploring adaptation choices for grapevine
regions in Spain
Pablo Resco, Ana Iglesias, Isabel Bardají
& Vicente Sotés
1 23
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Exploring adaptation choices for grapevine regions in Spain
Pablo Resco
1
Ana Iglesias
2
Isabel Bardajı
´
2
Vicente Sote
´s
3
Received: 9 March 2015 / Accepted: 28 April 2015 / Published online: 24 May 2015
ÓSpringer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015
Abstract Our aim was to explore the adaptation choices
to climate change in the grapevine regions of Spain from
two points of view. First, what are the main reasons for
concern? Second, how large is the adaptation effort in each
region? We address the first question by measuring sensi-
tivity to climate change with Huglin, Cold Night and
Dryness Indices over the entire territory, providing infor-
mation on the adaptation type (e.g. varieties, zoning, water
allocation). We then estimate probabilistic projections
across scenario, zone and sensitivity indices in the 56
Protected Designation of Origin areas to inform on the
magnitude of the adaptation effort. Second, we propose an
adaptation effort measure that is framed according to the
local environmental context. Results suggest that most ar-
eas urgently need an adaptation plan due to the deteriora-
tion of production and quality indices as a result of climate
change. Potential opportunities in many climate regions
might be limited by current policy. The production
objectives of quality and quantity trade-offs will probably
need to be revised by analysing the sustainability of
grapevine production.
Keywords Adaptation to climate change Wine
Grapevine Mediterranean Spain
Introduction
Grapevine production contributes to the economy, industry,
culture, tourism and supports of wildlife habitat, defining
and equilibrium unique in each world grapevine region.
Cultivation of grapes for wine production in Spain dates
from 1200 BC. Today Spain is the country with the largest
planted vineyard area—almost 1.2 million hectares in
2014, 14 percent of the total world area—the second wine
exporter after Italy, and the third country in terms of total
production (42 million hectolitres in 2014) and in terms of
value of production (5.7 billion in 2014) after France and
Italy. Production is highly variable due to the large inter-
annual variability of the climate. Northern regions experi-
ence late spring frosts, southern regions experience ex-
treme heat in summer, and most of the territory—except
the northern coast—suffer from recurrent drought episodes.
Spain exemplifies other wine-producing regions in the
world since it includes diverse climate conditions that
represent humid to semi-arid regions. In the more extreme
arid regions, this crop is also an essential element in the
carbon cycle, therefore linking mitigation and adaptation
practices.
The literature on the sustainability of agriculture in a
context of climate change includes a diverse array of
agronomic studies, economic projections and some very
significant discussions of policy choices (Trnka et al. 2011;
Editor: Wolfgang Cramer.
&Ana Iglesias
ana.iglesias@upm.es
Pablo Resco
presco@coag.org
Isabel Bardajı
´
isabel.bardaji@upm.es
Vicente Sote
´s
vicente.sotes@upm.es
1
Organisation of Farmers Unions (COAG), Madrid, Spain
2
Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences,
Universidad Polite
´cnica de Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain
3
Department of Crop Production, Universidad Polite
´cnica de
Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain
123
Reg Environ Change (2016) 16:979–993
DOI 10.1007/s10113-015-0811-4
Author's personal copy
Ciscar et al. 2011; Iglesias et al. 2012); however, these
important aspects are often evaluated in isolation since they
respond to different drivers. The winegrape producers
combine the environment, technology, market, preferences
and policies, providing a unique example of bottom-up
integration that evolves slowly since the crop may last
decades.
The increasing effort to produce high-quality regional
wines stands at a crucial point since the environment is
changing at an unprecedented rate, sometimes faster than
vineyards life, which can span over 100 years. Producers
and markets are clearly aware of the risks and opportunities
of climate change and demand information on future
choices.
In the last two decades, wine consumption has decreased
in the European Union, and in 1999, the European Com-
mon Agricultural Policy initiated an effort to support
structural changes, giving producers the chance to bring
production in line with the market (Bardaji and Iraizoz
2015;EC2012; Bisson et al. 2002). The incentives brought
changes in varieties, production techniques (e.g. irrigation)
and industrial processes, resulting in more stable produc-
tion with a better market orientation. Unfortunately, these
major structural changes in Spain were carried out in a non-
climate-smart way, and now almost a third of the 1 million
hectares of grapevines in the Spanish territory will face a
different climate than the one they were planned for.
To maintain these newer plantations, irrigation has
been expanded up to 40 % in the last 15 years and this
dramatic increase is already resulting in groundwater
overuse and over-salinisation of soils in some areas (e.g.
Castilla-La Mancha, the largest production region in the
world) (Rodrı
´guez-Dı
´az et al. 2011). The mismatch be-
tween the climate and production targets is clearly a
threat to the large investments, which have been made.
Climate has the greatest influence on vine development,
berry constitution, aroma and flavours and will clearly
affect the ability to produce premium grapes in current
regions. Since new plantations may take 15–30 years to
realise full returns and the regulations on production
techniques and varieties evolve slowly—specially in the
European Union—the analysis of adaptation choices is
critical (Nicholas and Durham 2012; Lereboullet et al.
2013a,b).
Premium wines are a result of the interactions of the
crop with climate, soil and management, and the term
terroir is used to characterise these interactions. The terroir
expresses the typicity of the wines and has commercial,
biophysical and cultural meanings (Tonietto and Carbon-
neau 2004). It is widely recognised that premium wines are
fundamentally limited by the possibility of growing high-
quality winegrapes in areas without of extreme heat or
frost, and with an adequate heat accumulation during the
growing season (White et al. 2006; Holland and Smit
2014); the water needs may be met by supplemental irri-
gation. Due to the commercial interest of premium wines,
the climate determinants are well documented and there are
a range of indices that represent them (Tonietto and Car-
bonneau 2004).
In the USA, winegrape-growing regions of California,
Oregon and Washington have shifted in the last 50 years
due to increase in minimum temperature experienced
during this time (0.9 °C, White et al. 2006). There are
many studies that address the climate–grapevine interac-
tions and projections of crop conditions under climate
change. The methods include the use of agroclimatic
indices to project crop phenology (Kenny and Harrison
1992; Schultz 2000; Jones et al. 2005; Santos et al. 2012;
White et al. 2006) and the estimation of the climatic suit-
ability of different varieties and wine styles (Winkler et al.
1974; Carbonneau 2003; Jones et al. 2010). Given the
importance of this sector in Spain, many studies have ad-
dressed specific regions and aspects of production (Santos
et al. 2012; Malheiro et al. 2010; Ramos et al. 2008;
Lorenzo et al. 2013; Fraga et al. 2014).
Looking into the future of winegrape requires informa-
tion on the choice of varieties, zoning, water allocation, on
the magnitude, variability and uncertainty of the projected
changes. In this study, we address these questions across
the entire Spanish territory in a consistent way, providing
adaptation choices across 19 climate scenarios, and the 56
regions that qualify wines as Protected Designation of
Origin in Spain. The study explores the risks to quality and
quantity by considering three bioclimatic indices in all the
Designation of Origin Regions and estimate the role of
variability across the climate projections. Our objective
was to link risks and opportunities to adaptation needs
across the Spanish territory, with specific emphasis on the
Protected Designation of Origin areas that produce the
premium winegrapes.
Adaptation will require substantial investments and
changes in the behaviour at both the private and public
level. Here we explore the adaptation choices to climate
change in the grapevine regions of Spain and propose an
adaptation effort measure that is framed according to the
local environmental context.
Methods
Framework
The approach (Fig. 1) first measures sensitivity to climate
change with Huglin, Cold Night and Dryness Indices over
the entire territory, providing information on the adaptation
need (e.g. changes in varieties, zoning, water allocation).
980 P. Resco et al.
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The probabilistic projections of index values are estimated
across climate scenario, zone and sensitivity indices, in the
56 Protected Designation of Origin areas. This information
is used to inform on the magnitude of the adaptation effort.
Data
Climatic and viticulture conditions in Spain are very di-
verse owing to the varied topography, climate, production
systems, technology and social conditions. Despite this
diversity, the Mediterranean climate is predominant,
characterised by both hot and dry summers and cool and by
cold and wet winters. Average seasonal temperature de-
creases with increasing altitude and latitude, and pre-
cipitation is concentrated between October and April
(southern regions) or May (northern regions). Summer
precipitation (June, July and August) is well below
100 mm in all regions except the northwest. Coefficients of
variation for precipitation vary from 21 to 55 %, implying
a high risk of rainfed crop failures and the need for sup-
plementary irrigation.
The study extends the entire Spanish territory and in-
cludes the 56 regions that qualify as Protected Designations
of Origin wine regions (according to the normative of
agricultural commodities for the European Union). For the
purpose of this analysis, the territory is divided into four
major agro-climatic regions (Fig. 2). Most of the territory
has typical Mediterranean climate, except the northern re-
gion that has Atlantic influence and a climate that is clearly
different from the rest of the territory. This study considers
the entire Spanish territory to provide an assessment of the
risks and opportunities for all regions.
Region I has large Atlantic influence, and is the coolest
and the wettest in the Iberian Peninsula, with temperate
climate without a pronounced dry season and very low local
temperatures that limit potential maturity and sugar content;
however, this region is highly relevant since it includes
commercially interesting white wines made with single va-
rieties (e.g. Rias Baixas and Albarin
˜o). Region II represents
North Eastern Spain, with a temperate Mediterranean cli-
mate; this region produces many of the premium-quality
wines (e.g. Rioja). Region III has a Mediterranean climate
with continental influence and a very pronounced dry and hot
season; the region produces major exports (e.g. Castilla-la
Mancha) and some new premium wines in the northern part
of the region (e.g. Ribera del Duero). Region IV is a typical
southern Mediterranean area, very hot and dry that produces
fortified wines (e.g. Jerez).
The baseline climate was obtained from the Spanish
Meteorological Agency (AEMET) Spain02 observed daily
gridded dataset (Herrera et al. 2012) based on surface
station data from a set of 2.756 quality-controlled stations
over peninsular Spain for the baseline period 1981–2000.
The selection of this baseline period is guided by the data
availability Spain02 observed daily gridded dataset, and it
is the reference used by the Spanish Meteorological
Agency (AEMET). From the viticulture point of view, this
reference period represents the baseline conditions since
irrigation was permitted in Spain; the selection of an earlier
baseline would have implied a major structural change in
the production system.
Projections of future climate
Christensen and Christensen (2007) provide high-resolu-
tion scenarios at the European level that have been further
downscaled for the Spanish territory by Jimenez-Guerrero
et al. (2013); the Jimenez-Guerrero et al. (2013) scenarios
were used because they are supported by the Spanish
Ministry of the Environment ESCENA project and will
likely be used in future agricultural regulations. Nineteen
climate change scenarios were constructed from general
circulation model (GCM) outputs (simulations with the
ECHAM5r2, CNCM3, HadCM3-Q3, HadCM3-Q16 mod-
els) driven by the A1B emissions scenario (703 ppmv in
CO2 concentration by the year 2100, defined in the IPCC
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios-SRES–(Nakicen-
ovic et al. 2000). The scenarios are downscaled for Spain
with the PROMES, MM5, REMO, WRF-A and WRF-B
regional climate models (RCM). The scenario database of
the ESCENA project was developed following the PRU-
DENCE (Christensen and Christensen 2007) and the
ENSEMBLES E-OBS (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009)
Research questions and geographical extent
Estimate probabilistic
projections across scenario,
zone, and sensitivity indices
Measure sensitivity with
Huglin Index, Cold Night
Index, and Dryness Index
Approach
Inform on the magnitude of
adaptation effort (ranking of
effort)
Inform normative on the
adaptation type (varieties,
zoning, water allocation)
Information on adaptation choices
Exploring adaptation choices for grapevine regions in Spain
What are the main reasons
for concern?
How large is the adaptation
effort in each region?
500,000 km2, 25x25 km
56 Protected Designation of
Origin
19 regional climate scenarios
Fig. 1 Research questions, extent of the analysis, approach and
potential information to policy development and farmers advisory
services
Exploring adaptation choices for grapevine regions in Spain 981
123
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database methodology that have been widely used by nu-
merous European impact studies since 2005. The ESCENA
database uses a very high number of daily station data in
the Iberian Peninsula, places the Iberian Peninsula in the
centre of the regional domains, and therefore is very suit-
able for this regional impact studies. Monthly time series of
average maximum and minimum temperature, precipita-
tion, relative humidity and wind were used for a
25 925 km grid. The scenarios included in this study in-
corporate the climate projection rage of the current IPCC
(2014) scenarios and therefore represent the climate
uncertainty represented in the IPCC (2014).
To create the future climate inputs for the indices cal-
culations, the study used an anomaly technique (or D
method) following White et al. (2006) to correct systematic
model biases and capture the spatial heterogeneity reflected
in the observational climate data. Delta method applies
signals or anomalies calculated in the future to the ob-
served climate; therefore, in this case, the scenarios of
future climate (or Dscenarios) are simply obtained by
adjusting the baseline observations from Spain02 by the
change fields, obtained calculating the difference between
simulated future, and downscaling simulations (A1B sce-
nario minus RF) from ESCENA.
Agro-climatic region I
Protected
Designations of
Origin regions
Code
Bierzo BIE
Monterrey MREI
Rias Baixas RIA*
Ribeiro RIB
Ribeira Sacra RSAC
Tierra de Leon TLEO
Txacoli Álava TXA
Txacoli Bizkaia TXB
Txacoli Guetería TXG
Valdeorras VAL
Agro-climatic region II
Protected
Designations of
Origin regions
Code
Agro-climatic region III
Protected
Designations of
Origin regions
Code
Agro-climatic region IV
Protected
Designations of
Origin regions
Code
Alella ALE Alicante ALI
Ampurdan AMP Arlanza ARL Almansa ALM
Calatayud CAL Arribes ARR Bullas BUL
Carieñena CAR Cigales CIG Condado de
Huelva
CHUE
Cava Cataluña CAV La Mancha LMAN* Jerez JER
Campo de Borja CBAR Madrid MAD Jumilla JUM*
Conca de Barberá CBOR Manchuela MAN Malaga MAL
Costers del Segre CSEG Mentrida MEN Manzanilla MANZ
Montsant MONT Mondejar MOND Montilla Moriles MOMO
Navarra NAV Ribera Duero RDUE* Pla i Llevant PLL
Pla de Bages PBA Ribera de
Guadiana
RGUA Ribera del Jucar RJUC
Penedes PEN Rueda RUE Utiel Requena UTI
Priorato PRI Toro TOR Valencia VALE
Rioja RIO* Ucles UCL Yecla YEC
Somontano SOM Valdepeñas VALP
Tarragona TAR Tierra de Zamora ZAM
Terra Alta TER
Administrative
units (Autonomous
Communities)
Region I Region II Region III Region IV
Fig. 2 Protected Designation of Origin of the continental territory of
Spain and the Balearic Islands included in each agro-climatic regions.
Asterisks indicate examples of Protected Designation of Origin in
each region that produces premium vines that are relevant from the
economic, social or environmental point of view. Note: the Spanish
territory of the Canary Islands is excluded from the analysis due to the
lack of scenario data
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Huglin, Cold Night, and Dryness Indices
A combination of complementary bioclimatic indices has
been recognised as the most adequate method to estimate
future impact on wine regions (Tonietto and Carbonneau
2004, Moriondo et al. 2013). The Huglin Index—also
called Heliothermal—(Branas 1974; Huglin 1978) repre-
sents the thermal suitability for wine production and in-
cludes a correction factor for latitude. This Index allows for
characterisations of the suitability of viticulture in general
and particular grapevine cultivars at a given location. The
Cool Night Index represents the minimum night tem-
peratures during the ripening period and is important as
regards grape and wine colour and aromas (Kliewer and
Torres 1972; Kliewer 1973; Tonietto and Carbonneau
2004), as cool night conditions during ripening period
grapes increase potential for colour and aromas. These two
indices combined to permit a good discrimination of the
qualitative potentials of wine-growing regions. Finally, the
Dryness Index indicates the potential water availability in
the soil (Riou et al. 1994; Tonietto and Carbonneau 2004),
which is important as regards the level of grape ripening
and wine quality (Seguin 1983; Jackson and Lombard
1993; Carbonneau 1998). These three indices are used in
this study to define the range of agro-climatic classes for
winegrape production (Table 1). The unit of calculation is
the 25 925 km grid cell; results are aggregated at the
designation of origin level and at the broad agro-climatic
region level. Average results are presented in maps; vari-
ability results are presented in figures and synthesis tables.
It is important to notice that the Cool Night Index is
based on ‘‘average’’ month of harvest, but the period of
harvest is changing with climate change. Some studies
have argued that the Cool Night Index should be calculated
for an earlier period in time. Further limitations regarding
the use of indices are included in the general limitation
Sect. (‘Limitations of the study’) and further discussed in
the conclusions Sect. (‘Conclusions’).
Defining adaptation needs
Adaptation effort is calculated as proportional to the magni-
tude of change in each area, following Tonietto and Carbon-
neau (2004). The average indices values were calculated for
each Protected Designation of Origin areas for baseline sce-
nario (1981–2000) and for the 19 climate change scenarios
(2031–2050). In each case, the climate scenarios that repre-
sented the lower, median, and higher values were first iden-
tified, and second effect of these scenarios is classified in a
qualitative way to describe the magnitude of change between
the scenario index values and the baseline index values (e.g.
the low climate scenario may result in medium changes in the
Huglin index); here we use the qualitative index change as a
measure of the potential adaptation efforts. These scenarios
are labelled low, medium and high adaptation needs (Table 2)
based on Tonietto and Carbonneau (2004).
Table 1 Description of Huglin or Heliothermal Index (HI), Cool Night Index (CI) and Dryness Index or Drought Index (DI), formula, class
name and ranges of values that define different agro-climatic classes
Index description Formula Class name Range of values
Huglin or Heliothermal Index
(HI)
Characterises the suitability of
viticulture in general and
particular grapevine cultivars
at a given location
P
30Sept
1April
Tavg10
ðÞ
þTmax10ðÞ
½
2d
Where
T
av
is the average daily temperature,
T
max
is the maximum daily
temperature, and dis a factor
depending on latitude
Very warm Huglin Index [3000
Warm 2400 \Huglin Index B3000
Temperate warm 2100 \Huglin Index B2400
Temperate 1800 \Huglin Index B2100
Cool 1500 \Huglin Index B1800
Very cool Huglin Index B1500
Cool Night Index (CI)
Characterises the colour and
aroma of grapes
CI ¼Tmin September
Where T
min
is the daily minimum
temperature
Very cool nights CI B12
Cool nights 12 \CI B14
Temperate nights 14 \CI B18
Warm nights CI [18
Dryness Index or Drought
Index (DI)
Characterises the grape
ripening and quality
Drought index ¼WoþPTvEs
Where
W
o
is the daily potential
evapotranspiration, Pis daily the
precipitation,
T
v
is potential transpiration, and E
s
is
direct evaporation from the soil
Very dry Drought Index B-200
Dry -200 \Drought Index B-100
Moderately dry -100 \Drought Index B50
Sub-humid 50 \Drought Index B150
Humid Drought index [150
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Limitations of the study
The index values were derived from the output of regional
climate models that include a very crude representation of
the topography and terrain, key variables that define the
premium vine zones. In addition, changes in land use
consistent with the climate scenario projections have not
been included in the simulations, since the aim was to
simulate policy choices for the current wetland system.
A major limitation is derived from the choice of indices
to represent future crop conditions. Although the three
indices are widely used and are reasonably in line with
current regional characterisation, the areas are quite diverse
at scales not represented in this study, and therefore, the
analysis is not necessarily representative of all the premium
areas now or under climate change. The study did not
address the full range of variables, which affect or are
affected by climate change. Here the indices included are
likely to have a potential interest and influence in the de-
sign of an adaptation strategy, but key variables are clearly
missing. A derived shortcoming of the method arises from
the current influence of management on grapevine quality.
This will certainly oversimplifies the results and does not
capture the variability between the areas. Thus, we suggest
adaptation options for broad areas that cannot be used to
define cost-effective options or priorities. Further research
is needed in order to incorporate the local knowledge into
climate change adaptation local plans and in the wider
policy context.
The social factor determines the way people respond to
climate change (Holland and Smit 2014) influenced by
availability of economics, resources and technology pro-
vided by research and other sources of knowledge (Bel-
liveau et al. 2006; Jones et al. 2010; Lereboullet et al.
2014). Therefore, further studies on historical, social and
economic background would be necessary.
Our assumptions about the future do not consider
changes in technology and biotechnology. However,
grapevine varieties and clones as well as wine techniques
evolve continuously and have advanced enormously in
relation to grape and wine quality; nevertheless the main
features of crops that determine response to temperature
variations (phenology) are quite stable.
Results and discussion
Regional evaluation with indicators
The consequences of climate change are evaluated by es-
timating changes in the bioclimatic indices from the
baseline period (1981–2000) to the scenario period
(2031–2050). The Huglin Index, Cool Night Index and
Dryness Index for the current climate (1981–2000) and
Table 2 Matrix to evaluate
adaptation efforts as result of
the projected changes in the
Huglin Index, Cool Night Index
and Dryness Index values under
the current climate and in
2031–2050
Average Index
values
in the current
climate (1981-
2000)
Adaptation efforts as result of the projected changes in Index values
Average Index values
in the climate change scenarios (2031-2050)
Huglin Index Very warm Warm Temperate
warm Temperate Cool Very cool
Very warm no change
Warm High no change
Temperate warm High Medium no change
Temperate High Medium Low no change
Cool High Medium Low Low no change
Very cool no change
Cool Night Index Warm Nights
Temperate
Nights
Cool Nights Very Cool
Nights
Warm Nights no change
Temperate Nights High no change
Cool Nights High Medium no change
Very Cool Nights High Medium Low no change
Dryness Index Very dry Dry Moderately
dry Sub-humid Humid
Very dry no change
Dry High no change
Moderately dry High Medium no change
Sub-humid High Medium Low no change
Humid High Medium Low Low no change
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climate change scenarios (2031–2050) averaged for the 19
scenarios included in the study (Fig. 3) present major
changes in almost all regions.
The results of a suite of high-resolution regional climate
models show that potential areas of Protected Designation
of Origin winegrapes could change to more unfavourable
conditions in the next three decades, suggesting large
changes in about half of the production areas in Spain.
The Huglin Index for southern regions indicates po-
tential risk of heat stress and over-ripening, leading to the
need to grow varieties that are currently not considered in
the area and may not produce the types of wines with
commercial interest. In northern areas, current frost
damage is projected to decrease, enabling a vineyard
expansion, and overall temperature increase may increase
the suitability of the area to more varieties that produce
premium wines. The response to increases in heat accu-
mulation results in lower-quality wines and indicates a
need to introduce warmer climate varieties that may not
be supported with current normative. The response to
extreme temperatures during the growing season (above
35 °C) is a high risk in more than half of the Spanish
territory and is clearly the highest risk, with limited
adaptation potential.
The evolution of the Cool Night Index indicates po-
tential quality losses in all regions depending on how early
the varieties are. Within a single microclimate, early
ripening varieties may need more adaptation. However,
current areas that are too cool to support adequate ripening
would be benefited. Again, southern regions bear the brunt
of projections as they may produce grapevines with low
aroma content. Overall, the red varieties also could be at
risk of becoming a relatively light colour.
The Drought Index indicates potential high deficit of
available soil water in the south, where irrigation might be
mandatory; and a reduction of humidity in the North that
could favour ripening and reduce diseases, but also in-
crease irrigation needs to prevent frequent stress.
Baseline climate
(1981-2000)
Future climate average
of 19 scenarios
(2031-2050)
Huglin Index
Cold Night
Index
Dryness Index
Fig. 3 Huglin Index, Cool Night Index and Dryness Index for the current climate (1981–2000) and climate change scenarios (2031–2050)
averaged for the 19 scenarios included in the study (Source of climate data for the 19 scenarios: Jimenez-Guerrero et al. 2013)
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Probabilistic projections
Looking beyond the averages, the study estimates the
probabilistic projections of changes in the indices values
under climate change for the 56 wine Protected Designa-
tions of Origin regions (Fig. 4). For the Huglin Index and
the Cool Night Index, this figure shows large uncertainties
in predictions for all regions, although warming thresholds
and median where the maritime influence is less patent, but
particularly in the southern part of Region III (i.e. Castilla-
la Mancha). In the case of the Dryness Index, a relatively
weak relationship was found between values at the two
tails of the projection distributions; nevertheless, graphics
show bigger differences between Protected Designations of
Origin regions: Less uncertainty is found in Regions III and
IV than in regions I and II where even determined pro-
jections predict soil humidity increases.
Adaptation needs
Based on literature estimates, we assigned index thresholds
to represent suitability limits. Within each index, we defined
low, medium and high adaptation needs based on the changes
of index values from the present to the future climate.
Adaptation needs for quality wine were estimated by an
evaluation of index variation within uncertainty thresholds
Fig. 4 Range of anomalies of
the grapevine indices under
climate change conditions in the
2030–2050 with respect to the
control climate. Derived form
19 climate models in 56
Protected Designation of Origin
areas. The change in the mean
value is represented by the
displacement of the middle
point in the range of anomalies.
The change in coefficient of
variation is represented by the
width of the range of anomalies;
solid black lines extend from the
5th to the 95th percentile of
projections
986 P. Resco et al.
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(see ‘Methods’). The results obtained (Table 3; Fig. 5)
could help to define a climate change adaptation policy
by providing increased comprehension of the effects and
the uncertainty of predictions, setting different levels of
adaptation needs and sensitiveness in a geographically
diverse country. To estimate adaptation needs and the
largest climate uncertainties, we estimate projected
changes in the bioclimatic indices under climate change
for the 19 projection (A1B scenario minus reference
scenario-RF) in each Protected Designation of Origin
areas, capturing spatial heterogeneity reflected in the
observational climate data.
The adaptation effort for the 56 Protected Designation of
Origin areas (Table 3; Fig. 5), highlighting the differences
in a geographically diverse country. The adaptation efforts
are ranked low (yellow), medium (orange) and high (red)
depending on the change in the magnitude of the index
values; blank boxes indicate no change in index classifi-
cation values. Climate change scenarios are classified as
High scenario, with the largest projected increases in
temperature and largest precipitation decrease; Medium
scenario, with median values of temperature and pre-
cipitation change; and Low scenario, with the lowest
temperature increase and the lowest precipitation decrease
or even precipitation increase in some areas.
The indices are evaluated individually in order to pro-
vide a more comprehensive effect of the drivers of change.
It is clear that the interactions of low changes in each in-
dividual index may result in large adaptation needs. It is
important to notice that even small changes may need
changes in grape varieties and cultivation techniques with a
high sociocultural cost.
Regions where the Huglin Index shifts from cool to
temperate or temperate-warm are considered with low
adaptation needs, as warmer growing seasons and decline
in frost frequency could reduce constraints to ripen of all
cultivated varieties. In contrast, regions with shifts to
warm, or very warm Huglin classes are considered with
medium or high adaptation needs. Despite the difficulty of
establishing precise upper temperature limits by varieties
for growing high-quality wines (Jones et al. 2005), it is
clear that the temperature increase may exceed the optimal
conditions to ripen the high-value varieties.
In the case of the Cool Night Index, the tendency is to
observe a loss of quality under warmer night temperature
conditions for maturation, consequently warmer regions
are considered more sensible. The interpretation of changes
in the Dryness Index is complex since moderate water
stress increases quality (van Leeuwen et al. 2004). There-
fore, wine regions with projected shifts from humid to sub-
humid moderately dry are considered with ‘‘low’’ adapta-
tion needs as irrigation might be necessary just in certain
cases; regions in the dryer classes lead to frequent stress
effects, and so irrigation is necessary to increase yield or to
improve quality.
Climate models show large uncertainties in temperature
and precipitations, and warming and drying trends to a
greater or lesser extent are found almost in all regions and
scenarios. As a consequence, and based on current climate
conditions, viticulture in Spain may face both risks and
opportunities due to climate change. New climate condi-
tions might result firstly in a viticulture expansion with new
plantations in currently too cool terrains or new varieties in
existing cooler vineyards; secondly, in positive effects in
productivity or quality mostly in premium wine Protected
Designations of Origin regions located in northern Spain
(Regions I and II in our study); and finally higher heat and
severe water stress, with significant impacts on production
and quality, mainly in southern Spain (Regions III and IV).
To address negative impacts, quality viticulture needs
adaptive measures to guarantee a steady production under
proper full ripening conditions, and therefore bringing
production into line with a market demanding quality and
providing profitability. These measures can range from
relatively easy oenological techniques or farming practices
in the short term to increasingly effective but expensive
changes in planting strategies (e.g. variety or row direction)
or locations, with larger economic and social costs in the
long term (Belliveau et al. 2006).
On the whole, Regions I and II could require lower
adaptation efforts, but on the other hand, adaptation in
Regions III and IV would require more difficult responses
to address risks in quality and production. Particular em-
phasis should be placed on water-related measures to re-
duce heat- or drought-related risks in most Protected
Designations of Origin regions firstly, to reduce water
needs. Thus, more drought- tolerant varieties and root-
stocks along with the best disposition of vines, trellis
height, pruning (Reynolds and Vanden Heuvel 2009) and
soil management should be necessary to combine, espe-
cially in the most vulnerable southern regions like La
Mancha or Jumilla. And secondly, to increase soil water
availability by irrigation, which can raise concerns about
its sustainability in the most vulnerable basins.
Vineyard area under irrigation has risen to ap-
proximately up to 50 % in the last decades, almost exclu-
sively as drip irrigation (Riquelme and Ramos 2005) with
high-efficiency systems due to the rising water and energy
costs (Riquelme and Ramos 2005). The irrigated expansion
has increased water-related conflicts and intensified pres-
sure on groundwater resources mainly in La Mancha
(Iglesias and Garrote 2015).
Irrigation of vines not only provides some security in
protecting a large investment with potentially high re-
turns against droughts, but serves also to increase and
stabilise production. Although a certain water deficit
Exploring adaptation choices for grapevine regions in Spain 987
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Table 3 Adaptation efforts as result of the projected changes in Index values. Adaptation efforts are ranked low (yellow), medium (orange) and
high (red) depending on the change in the magnitude of the index values; blank boxes indicate no change in index classification values
Agro-
climatic
Region
Protected
Designation
of Origin
Ada
p
tation efforts needed as result of the
p
ro
j
ected chan
g
es in Index values
Low Medium High
High impact climate scenario Medium impact climate scenario Low impact climate scenario
Huglin
Index
Cool Night
Index
Dryness
Index
Huglin
Index
Cool Night
Index
Dryness
Index
Huglin
Index
Cool Night
Index
Dryness
Index
Region I
BIE
MREI
RIA
RIB*
RSAC
TLEO
TXA
TXB
TXG
VAL
Region
II
ALE
AMP
CAL
CAR
CAV
CBAR
CBOR
CSEG
MONT
NAV
PBA
PEN
PRI
RIO*
SOM
TAR
TER
Region
III
ARL
ARR
CIG
LMAN*
MAD
MAN
MEN
MOND
RDUE*
RGUA
RUE
TOR
UCL
VALP
ZAM
Region
IV
ALI
ALM
BUL
CHUE
JER
JUM*
MAL
MANZ
MOMO
PLL
RJUC
UTI
VALE
YEC
Heliothermal Index (HI), Cool Night Index (CNI), Dryness Index (DI). Three Climate change scenarios of the 19th studied have been selected for
each region: the High impact (with the largest projected increases in temperature and largest precipitation decrease); Medium impact (median
values of temperature and precipitation change); and Low impact (with the lowest temperature increase and the lowest precipitation decrease or
even precipitation increase in some areas)
988 P. Resco et al.
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during the ripening period can improve the quality of
the grape, especially at moderate levels (Carbonneau
1998); it has been shown that proper irrigation practices
can have a positive influence on the quality of the
harvested products and any resulting processed product
(Riou et al. 1994).
The regional implications are discussed in more detail
below.
Region I
This region is characterised for white wines of high quality
and is well known. The projected warming trends could
reduce constraints to ripen more varieties and enable vine-
growing in areas nowadays too cool, increasing the range
of options and opportunities. With altitudes ranging from
100 to 1000 m, higher trends are projected in the cooler
inland regions (Bierzo, Monterrei, Valdeorras or Tierra de
Leo
´n) than in the milder coastal regions (Rias Baixas or
Txacolis), reducing frost events and increasing yield. Re-
garding adaptation, more attention might be needed in
warmer terrain like coastal regions where night
temperature during ripening is more likely to reach upper
limits, although maximum night temperatures should likely
be not exceeded for any variety. Therefore, negative effects
on the warmest quality of their wines could be avoided by
oenological techniques or new vine management to adjust
ripening, even for the warmest and driest scenarios.
Although uncertainty of precipitation projections is high,
most of them predict a reduction to levels where quality
might be increased, while humidity-nurtured diseases such
as mildew reduced. Only in some cases, irrigation might be
necessary.
Region II
Grapevine in this region occupies large areas, mainly along
the Ebro valley, between 200–800 m of altitude. In the
future, warming trends might make suitable for viticulture
areas of higher altitude surrounding the Pyrenees in the
North and the Iberian mountains in the South. Changes
occur from cool to warm climates, according to Huglin
Index. Warming thresholds in Protected Designations of
Origin regions in these two potential expansion areas are
Index
Adaptation efforts needed as result of the projected changes in Index values
Low Medium High No
change
High impact climate scenario Medium impact climate scenario Low impact climate scenario
Huglin
Cool
Night
Dryness
Fig. 5 Adaptation efforts as a result of the projected changes in Index
values. Adaptation efforts are ranked low (yellow), medium (orange)
and high (red) depending on the change in the magnitude of the index
values; grey boxes indicate no change in index classification values.
Heliothermal Index (HI), Cool Night Index (CNI), Dryness Index
(DI). Three Climate change scenarios of the 19th century studies have
been selected for each region: the High impact (with the largest
projected increases in temperature and largest precipitation decrease);
Medium impact (median values of temperature and precipitation
change); and Low impact (with the lowest temperature increase and
the lowest precipitation decrease or even precipitation increase in
some areas)
Exploring adaptation choices for grapevine regions in Spain 989
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similar, although more difficulties to adaptation are ex-
pected in the second one. Temperatures in warmer regions
(especially Tarragona and Terra Alta) might increasingly
exceed needs to ripen some varieties, increasing its stress
risks even in the lowest impact scenario. In cooler regions
like Rioja (a region of premium wines of great impor-
tance), warming could have positive effects in grapevines,
due to a reduction of frost occurrence that favours optimal
ripening; here only earlier varieties or warmer micro-cli-
mates may need adaptation responses.
Finally, projected higher night temperatures during
ripening period might reduce wine colour and aromas po-
tential in all areas of this region, but especially again in
warmer regions of Tarragona and Terra Alta. Thus, adap-
tation measures, from relatively easy wine-making tech-
niques to more difficult changes like introduction of later
varieties or rootstocks changes would be necessary. Pre-
cipitation projections are highly variable in all locations of
this region, and an increase in dryness levels is likely to
occur, leading to frequent stress making irrigation neces-
sary or even mandatory in the dryer regions (mainly
Calatayud and Campo de Borja).
Region III
Vineyards are located in areas mainly between 700 and
1000 m of altitude. Future climate clearly intensifies the
northern-to-southern gradient on this region: (a) the North-
Central plateau with cool to temperate growing seasons and
cool nights in the ripening period (e.g. Ribera del Duero,
Toro or Rueda). (b) the South-Central plateau, with more
than 500.000 ha and mainly with warm growing seasons
and temperate nights in the ripening period (e.g. La Man-
cha, Valdepen
˜as or Guadiana). In both cases, warming
projection are high, but especially in the case of the South-
Plateau, warming is likely to be the highest in Spain.
In the North-Plateau, high warming trends could have
positive effects in some Protected Designations of Origin
regions (Ribera del Duero, Cigales y Arlanza) as a result of
frost reduction and better ripening, and only earlier vari-
eties or warmer locations may need adaptation at farm
level. But warmer Protected Designations of Origin regions
(Rueda, Arlanza and Toro) could be exposed to too warm
growing seasons for their current varieties and therefore to
colour and aromas potential loss, although not as high as in
IIIa. As current dryness levels are usually favourable to
maturation, dryness projections show negative conse-
quences for subregion IIIb in all scenarios, increasing ir-
rigation needs.
In the South-Plateau, La Mancha, Ribera del Guadiana
and Valdepen
˜as, the most important Protected Designa-
tions of Origin regions, might increasingly exceed tem-
perature thresholds of some varieties currently grown and
experiment higher wine colour and aromas potential re-
ductions, even in milder scenarios. Therefore, strong
adaptation efforts should be carried at all levels with dif-
ferent costs and difficulties, even more in new plantations
with new varieties (mainly Tempranillo but also Cabernet
Sauvignon, Merlot and Syrah) trained in high trellis, more
sensitive to higher temperatures and more water-demand-
ing. Irrigation is practised in 40 % of vineyards and will
likely become mandatory in the main regions, increasing
already existing conflicts in water allocation.
Region IV
Region IV stretches along the Mediterranean to the South
Atlantic Spanish coast, and vineyards occupy terrains with
altitudes ranging from 20 to 900 m of altitude. This region
produces sweet and fortified wines well known for cen-
turies, and still wines grouped in relatively new Protected
Designations of Origin regions like Jumilla. Although na-
tive grape varieties like Palomino, Monastrell, Merse-
guera are predominant, Tempranillo, Cabernet Sauvignon,
Syrah and Merlot have been recently introduced as a high-
quality varieties. It includes the warmest wine Protected
Designations of Origin regions in Spain (e.g. Montilla,
Condado de Huelva or Jumilla) and the driest, together
with region IIIa. In contrast, due to water restrictions, level
of irrigation barely exceeds 25 % of vineyards. Projected
warming trends show potential increments of heat stress
and quality losses. Therefore, adaptation needs are high to
maintain production and quality. Especially in still wines,
efforts to increase quality have been in focus with the in-
troduction of new varieties and high trellis. Water avail-
ability would be in the future the most limiting factor as
water needs are expected to rise in all Protected Designa-
tions of Origin regions, and irrigation therefore might be-
come mandatory to prevent severe drought and heat stress.
Conclusions
This study simplifies grapevine systems, future climate,
adaptation choices, and uncertainty evaluation, although
there are some limitations of our findings. First, despite the
relatively high resolution of the 19 RCMs used, the im-
portance of microclimate in viticulture adaptation (van
Leeuwen et al. 2004) requires information on a smaller
scale, not available currently. Second, our simulations did
not include extreme temperature events, and White el al.
(2006) suggest that consideration of mean climate alone
may dramatically underestimate climate change impacts;
both extreme heat and extreme cold events may be addi-
tional factors limiting the production of high-quality
grapevine cultivation itself; further research regarding
990 P. Resco et al.
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daily extremes of temperature and precipitation is essential
to complement the analysis presented. Thirdly, even
though the strength of our agro-climatic analysis is derived
from the recognition that the indices used here have been
validated and consistently used, soil interaction with cli-
mate and vine is not considered explicitly and may also
define wine quality and style in small scales. Finally, the
data needs for developing optimal adaptation choices are
complex and may be hard to satisfy; nevertheless, the
conceptual steps that are presented remain valid, and the
policy decisions at a regional level are likely to be useful.
Despite these uncertainties and limitations, the results
obtained show a qualitative picture for future adaptation
effort for the production on high-quality wines in Protected
Designation of Origin Areas in Spain under a full range of
climate conditions. Our findings advance the knowledge of
differing climate change strategies at local scale by pro-
viding increased comprehension of the potential solutions
to the stakeholders, which could use the information in
local adaptation plans. Our results suggest that winegrape
production may likely be challenged in the Castilla-La
Mancha and Andalusia regions, where large investments
have been made in recent years without considering future
climate impacts.
The choices of adaptation in each area are supported by
the index calculation and are evaluated in terms of mag-
nitude in each Protected Designation of Origin, therefore
providing a quantitative measure to the qualitative solu-
tions. Our projections may be considered to represent re-
gional abilities to produce generic, not premium, wines.
The strong reduction in Regions I and II indicates that the
overall shift would be towards higher yields of lower-
quality fruit, resulting in lower-quality and lower-priced
wines.
A consistent result in all regions in the need for addi-
tional water for irrigation in order to ensure stable pro-
duction targets and minimises the risk of drought damage.
Current irrigation schemes, designed to maintain a certain
water deficit during the ripening period and therefore im-
prove the quality of the grape (Carbonneau 1998), will be
no longer valid in the near future. This adaptation choice is
highly questionable since current water policy in Europe
limits additional irrigation infrastructure (Iglesias and
Garrote 2015).
Simplified information derived from index values can be
of great value in climate change adaptation and policy
making in the grapevine sector (White et al. 2006). Recent
researches have combined indicators identify climate
change risk and adaptation options with valuable results for
evaluating areas at risk (Bindi et al. 1996; Zhu et al. 2014;
White et al. 2006). Similarly to our study, Moriondo et al.
(2011) identified, by combining indicators, that premium-
quality wine areas in Europe are at risk, which seem to be
quite concurrent with our findings. Lereboullet et al. (2014)
also carried out a indicator analysis to evaluate the future
situation in the Rousillon region of France. They proposed
a set of adaptation measures at the local level that are in
line with our broader regional analysis.
The results presented here may be viewed as optimistic,
since the changes of extreme temperatures may have a
more extreme effect on wine quality (White et al. 2006)
and the required changes in water to maintain a stable
production may result in environmental limitations (Igle-
sias and Garrote 2015). However, in some regions, the
results may be pessimistic since the adaptation needs are
based solely on climatic parameters, and regions where
there are cultivated grape varieties with a greater plasticity
than others might not need as much adaptation. Finally, the
socio-demographic determinants which might increase so-
cietal support for adaptation only can be addressed by
consulting the wide range of stakeholders included in wine
markets. Lereboullet et al. (2014) show that adaptive ca-
pacity depends on the complex interactions of ecological
and socio-economic factors and define the limits and bar-
riers to adaptation.
Policy is deeply involved in grapevine production in
Europe. Policy development is based on an historical ana-
lysis of the ‘‘terroir’’, a unit of analysis that defines the
Protected Designations of Origin in wine regions. The
‘terroir’’ includes both environmental and management
variables and has evolved to capture a balance between
supply and demand. It is therefore a challenge to develop
policies that respond to an uncertain future. In this study, we
have attempted to face part of this challenge by presenting an
approach that estimates the regional sensitivity to key indi-
cators of wine quality and quantity and how these indicators
may be influenced by climate change. Together, indicators
and their likelihood of change may be useful in singling out
areas at risk and potential adaptation strategies. This infor-
mation may be used to implement and develop policy.
Acknowledgments This research was supported by the European
Commission BASE project (Grant Agreement No. 308337, Funded
under FP7-ENVIRONMENT). We acknowledge Dr Sixto Herrera
Garcı
´a of the Santander Meteorology Group for the high-resolution
climate scenarios of the ESCENA project (financed by the Spanish
Meteorological Agency and the Spanish office of Climate Change).
We acknowledge the helpful comments and suggestions of two
anonymous reviewers.
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... These regions will face great challenges and will need major efforts to adapt to increasing costs and to maintain the quality and productivity of vineyards (Fraga et al., 2012;Guiot and Cramer, 2016;Resco et al., 2016;Santillan et al., 2020). For example, a study conducted to explore the possible measures of adaptation to CC in several Spanish wine-producing regions pointed out that the Protected Designations of Origin of Jumilla and La Mancha are two of the most vulnerable areas which may suffer a high impact due to a great increase in the projected temperature and a decrease in precipitation (Resco et al., 2016). ...
... These regions will face great challenges and will need major efforts to adapt to increasing costs and to maintain the quality and productivity of vineyards (Fraga et al., 2012;Guiot and Cramer, 2016;Resco et al., 2016;Santillan et al., 2020). For example, a study conducted to explore the possible measures of adaptation to CC in several Spanish wine-producing regions pointed out that the Protected Designations of Origin of Jumilla and La Mancha are two of the most vulnerable areas which may suffer a high impact due to a great increase in the projected temperature and a decrease in precipitation (Resco et al., 2016). ...
Article
In this study we review the state of the art of different physiologically-based water-saving irrigation strategies and methods used to improve productive water use efficiency (WUEyield) and berry and wine quality in vineyards. We also show how these irrigation practices, combined with more sustainable soil management and other agroecological practices, can help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on wine grapes cultivation and make irrigated Mediterranean vineyards more resilient and sustainable. We analyse the deficit irrigation (DI) strategies used most often for different varieties and edaphoclimatic conditions. We review the latest advances in the application of regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) and partial root zone drying irrigation (PRI) strategies in grapevines (red and white grapes), as well as other irrigation methods used less frequently in vineyards to improve WUEyield, berry quality and irrigation efficiency, such as subsurface drip irrigation. We also analyze recent findings concerning the physiological response of the vine to water stress with more holistic approaches such as, hydraulic safety marging and stress distance, and discuss how to translate these physiological approaches into the practical application of RDI management in field conditions, according to the genotypic characteristics and degree of drought tolerance of the variety/rootstock combination. We review optimum vine water status ranges and the thresholds proposed for better deficit irrigation scheduling in vineyards. In addition, we consider sustainable soil management practices - such as cover crops, mulching, composting, reduced tillage, mutualistic plant-microorganisms interactions, and agroforestry - and their potential as beneficial agroecological practices to improve WUE, soil/vine performance, and other ecological services in RDI vineyards within a more sustainable farming system (organic farming). The idea is to design sustainable and climate-change-resilient agricultural systems (e.g. vineyards) in Mediterranean semi-arid areas.
... Obtaining knowledge about traditional varieties and exploring intravarietal variability is of interest to avoid genetic erosion and to select varieties that could be adapted to climate change, which includes an increase in drought periods as consequence of erratic precipitation patterns and high temperature, and negative changes in fruit quality, fundamentally by a decoupling between technological and phenolic maturity [1,21]. To deal with this, researchers are investigating several adaptation strategies, which include the selection of drought-resistant varieties or clones, to understand the differences in drought tolerance among existing grapevine varieties [3,7,8] and to delay berry ripening [22]. ...
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Viticultural adaptations to climate change are needed, and the utilization of grapevine varieties that are better-adapted to water scarcity could contribute to finding grape varieties that are adapted to climate change. The present research was carried out to expand the limited knowledge on the minor varieties Arcos and Forcallat in comparison with three other more widespread traditional Mediterranean cultivars (Bobal, Garnacha, and Monastrell). An ampelographic characterization was carried out and provided with the characteristics for the cv. Arcos, which have not been previously described, as well as traits that are useful for differentiating it from the cv. Forcallat. Both varieties maintained low stomatal conductance, having the highest number of small stomata in comparison to the rest of varieties. Arcos and Forcallat also showed the highest intrinsic water use efficiency in addition to being late ripening, a characteristic that could be of interest in the context of water scarcity and warm climates for better coupling of technological and phenolic maturity. In parallel, we analyzed Veremeta plants considered a synonym of Monastrell, which were growing in the same field. The synonymy was confirmed by SSR markers, but phenotypic differences between plant materials were determined in relation to their ampelographic, agronomical, and physiological traits. Indeed, both accessions are very interesting as materials to be studied in agronomic trials under different watering regimes in order to deepen our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the drought tolerance of the evaluated Mediterranean varieties.
... Such rapid warming implies that new regions will experience climate conditions more favourable to viticulture (Fraga et al., 2016;Moriondo et al., 2013). Hence, while wine production is and will probably be negatively impacted by global warming in some historical areas (Fraga et al., 2016;Resco et al., 2016), a collateral effect of global warming should be that northern European regions could be able to obtain more profitable wine production, in line with gains in cultivar diversity and/or modified vineyard distribution (Morales-Castilla et al., 2020). ...
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In Belgium, vineyards have strongly increased over the last decades. Is it a trendy effect, or is Belgium becoming an increasingly favourable country for viticulture? A related issue is whether Belgium is similar to another French region from a climatic point of view. To address these questions, we use here the regional climate model MAR to provide high-resolution (5km) climate information over the territory of Belgium and the northeastern quarter of France. We first evaluate MAR outputs from a climate point of view, against more than 150 weather stations, and then from a viticulture point of view, by computing bioclimatic indices, as well as key phenological dates and frost risk. The second step consists in comparing the four northernmost French wine regions (Champagne, Bourgogne, Jura and Alsace) with the Belgian wine region. MAR simulations are generally consistent with the observation, especially for the dates of the main phenological stages of the vine. Simulations of frost risk in spring, heat stress in summer and Huglin’s heliothermal index show slightly more disagreement but biases remain moderate. The Belgium wine region appears as quite comparable to Champagne and the Jura, despite colder conditions that influence its bioclimatic indices. Under current climate conditions, the main risk for Belgian vines is frost after bud break.
... However, newly introduced irrigation was assumed to play an important role in adapting to the water deficit caused by the warming climate, with an increase in irrigated area, but decreased amount of irrigation in central and southern Europe (Fraga et al., 2012(Fraga et al., , 2016(Fraga et al., , 2017Klein et al., 2013;Monaco et al., 2014;Wiréhn, 2018). In particular in MD, supplementary irrigation of cereals is thought to overcome some of the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by climate and CO 2 perturbations (Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018), and in viticulture the current irrigation schemes will no longer be sufficient to maintain the quality of grapes in the near future (Resco et al., 2016). The transition of selected rainfed and currently fully irrigated areas to supplementary irrigation could be a feasible strategy, as expanding the area of full irrigation is highly questionable since the current water policy in Europe limits additional irrigation due to resource scarcity (Iglesias and Garrote, 2015). ...
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To date, assessing the adaptive measures to climate change effects on cropping systems have generally been based on data from field trials and crop models. This strategy can only explore a restricted number of options with a limited spatial extent. Therefore, we designed a questionnaire that incorporated both qualitative and quantitative aspects of climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. The questionnaire was distributed to experts from 15 European countries to map both the observed and planned climate adaptive measures in general and for five major crops (wheat, oilseed rape, maize, potato, and grapevine) in six environmental zones (EnZs) across Europe. In northern Europe, changed timing of field operations and introduction of new crops and cultivars were the already observed as the main adaptations to a longer growing season and reduced low-temperature stress under climate change. Farmers in central and southern Europe were mainly changing water and soil management as well as adopting drought-tolerant cultivars to cope with increasing evapotranspiration and higher variability and lower predictability of rainfall. Crop protection, crop insurance, and early warning/forecast systems were considered effective ways to reduce the economic losses from increased climate-related risks and extremes. The risks and associated adaptation measures vary for different crops in different EnZs. Across Europe, changes in field operation practices, fertilisation regime, crop protection, and cultivar selection are expected to be the most prominent adaptive measures under future projected climate change. In southern and central Europe, improved irrigation systems, changing cropping systems, and revised environmental regulations and subsidy schemes are being introduced as part of adaptation planning due to the projected warmer and drier climate. In northern Europe, there are also considerations of changing landscape and environmental regulations to cope with increasing rainfall variability and changing cropping practices due to longer growing seasons. The thorough understanding of the observed and foreseen adaptations in the different zones will be helpful for supporting decision making at both farm and policy levels across Europe.
... Therefore, it is essential to consider processes of adaptation and mitigation in this industry to reduce vulnerability [30]. Many winegrowers are implementing costly adaptation measures such as moving their vineyards to higher grounds or even adopting delay ripening techniques, plus introducing new grape varieties [31,32]. ...
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The wine industry is extremely vulnerable to climate change given the impact of temperature, water or soil conditions on wine production. Transformation strategies toward more sustainable models would help the industry to overcome the weak points. The present study evaluates the environmental impact of the so-called CO2-alcoholic fermentation processes (CO2-AFP) strategy, a recently developed eco-innovative strategy, which offers a new pathway toward a greener wine-making production with a 16.79% reduction of the carbon footprint considering scopes 1 (direct emissions), 2 (emissions generated directly in the production of electricity), and 3 (indirect emissions embodied in the organization's value chain). This strategy is based on a novel Carbon Dioxide Utilization approach from a biogenic CO2 released by fermentation processes to produce a fully marketable and environmentally friendly chemical product at a global level, i.e., sodium carbonate. This paper presents the strategy development corresponding to a real case: a medium-size winery and distillery in Spain, where the “CO2-AFP Strategy” has been successfully tested and scaled-up. Detailed and tested carbon capture and utilization schemes are used to evaluate the overall carbon footprint balance (carbon calculation, capture potential, and carbon balance) via an improved hybrid multiregional input-output-lifecycle assessment model (MRIO-LCA). The benefits go beyond the reduction of carbon footprint in the fermentation industry. The application of the “CO2-AFP Strategy” implies a revolution, in terms of Circular Economy, in the sodium carbonate industry, as the symbiotic process between the different stages of the value chain will allow downstream carbon footprint reductions, facilitating a greener sodium carbonate production.
... At the same time, surveys have been a resource used to analyze agri-food system stakeholders and consumer´s perception, followed by its subsequent statistical treatment by multinomial regression that could help to build a prospective analysis and future scenario (De Boni et al., 2019). In the same way, collecting information through surveys, and its subsequent statistical treatment is a commonly used resource in research where the aim is to assess the effect of agri-food activities over the environment by using proxy indicators, such as climate change or agronomic adaptation, thus building probabilistic estimates for the identification of prospective scenarios (Resco et al., 2016). ...
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Las denominaciones de origen protegidas (DOP) salvaguardan y reconocen los productos alimenticios con cualidades específicas derivadas de su origen. Este tema ha sido de reciente interés para los académicos; no obstante, la investigación que aborda la sostenibilidad en las DOP es aún escasa. Por tanto, este trabajo tuvo como objetivo identificar la forma en que se ha abordado el vínculo entre DOP y sostenibilidad en investigaciones recientes, especialmente en espacios geográficos con una gran trayectoria en el uso y explotación de DOP, como la Unión Europea (UE). Se seleccionó una metodología de revisión sistemática de la literatura aplicando la metodología Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyzes (PRISMA) y se utilizó la base de datos de Scopus, WoS y Science Direct entre 2005 y 2021. De este proceso de selección, se escogieron 41 estudios elegibles y se realizó un análisis cualitativo y cuantitativo de la muestra para abordar los siguientes elementos: (1) tendencia temporal en el campo del conocimiento; (2) tipo de producto alimenticio analizado en la investigación; (3) ubicación geográfica de la investigación; (4) metodologías utilizadas; y (5) combinaciones de términos de sostenibilidad y su vínculo con el tipo de producto alimenticio. Los resultados mostraron que la investigación de la sostenibilidad en DOP en la UE presenta una tendencia creciente, y se lleva a cabo principalmente en aquellos países con el mayor volumen de registro de DOP, centrándose en productos lácteos y aceite, y aplicando metodologías mixtas para evaluar desde una perspectiva interdisciplinaria la dimensión social, económica y ambiental de la sostenibilidad, siendo los sistemas de producción sostenibles, el término más utilizado en la investigación.
... However, the climate change predicted for these semiarid zones, where there is already limited water availability, means that the climate will become warmer and drier [4], threatening vineyard sustainability in the near future. Thus, adaptation measures are necessary, especially those related to the application of deficit irrigation, improvements in water use efficiency, and the selection of plant material (rootstocks, clones, new crosses/varieties of Monastrell) better adapted to the new climatic situation [5][6][7][8]. ...
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Monastrell grapevines grafted on the rootstocks 140Ru, 1103P, 41B, 110R, and 161-49C were subjected to regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) and partial root-zone irrigation (PRI). We analyzed the effects of the rootstock and irrigation method on the phenolic concentration in different berry tissues, its dilution/concentration due to the berry size, the anatomical and morphological traits of berries related to the phenolic compounds concentration, and the relationships of all these parameters with the final berry and wine phenolic content. The rootstock had an important effect on the accumulation of total phenolic compounds and anthocyanins in the skin (berries from 110R and 140Ru had the highest values). Moreover, the rootstock modified some anatomical and morphological characteristics that had a direct relationship with the final phenolic compounds concentration in the must. Large grapes and high must percentages (110R and 140Ru) produced a dilution effect, whereas small berries and a low must percentage increased the concentration (161-49C). For 110R, the small size of the cells of the epidermis and hypodermis in the grapes also could have contributed to the high phenolic compounds concentration in the skin. The percentage of cells in the skin with a uniform coloration was positively correlated with its total phenolic compounds and anthocyanins concentration and also with the phenolic quality of the wine. The PRI modified some specific morphological/anatomical skin/berry traits, and these may have contributed to important changes in the final concentration of phenolic compounds, depending on the rootstock. The better phenolic quality of the must and wines observed in some rootstocks under PRI could be due to smaller cells in the epidermis and hypodermis of the skin (161-49C), a higher percentage of cells with a uniform coloration in the hypodermis (110R), or a lower number of seeds per berry (161-49C). In contrast, the lower phenolic compounds concentration in the must of grapes observed in the most vigorous rootstocks under PRI could be due to a greater thickness of the epidermis (140Ru), greater cuticle thickness (41B), a higher number of seeds (140Ru), a lower skin/pulp ratio and percentage of skin (140Ru), a greater percentage of cells in the epidermis without coloration or with large inclusions, and a lower percentage of cells with a uniform coloration in the epidermis (140Ru). The final quality of the grape is related to some changes in histological and morphological aspects of the grape produced by the rootstock and irrigation strategy.
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Grapevine berry quality for winemaking depends on complex and dynamic relationships between the plant and the environment. Winemakers around the world are demanding a better understanding of the factors that influence berry growth and development. In the last decades, an increment in air temperature, CO2 concentration and dryness occurred in wine-producing regions, affecting the physiology and the biochemistry of grapevines, and by consequence the berry quality. The scientific community mostly agrees in a further raise as a result of climate change during the rest of the century. As a consequence, areas most suitable for viticulture are likely to shift into higher altitudes where mean temperatures are suitable for grape cultivation. High altitude can be defined as the minimum altitude at which the grapevine growth and development are differentially affected. At these high altitudes, the environments are characterized by high thermal amplitudes and great solar radiations, especially ultraviolet-B (UV-B). This review summarizes the environmental contribution of global high altitude-related climatic variables to the grapevine physiology and wine composition, for a better evaluation of the possible establishment of vineyards at high altitude in climate change scenarios.
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La viticulture méditerranéenne est un emblème culturel et économique particulièrement menacé par le changement climatique : avancée du cycle phénologique, baisse des rendements et de la qualité de la récolte. Pour limiter ces impacts négatifs, il est essentiel de mobiliser dès maintenant plusieurs leviers d’adaptation comme les cépages tolérants à la sécheresse, l’ombrage, l’irrigation, etc. Cependant, les communautés scientifique et professionnelle peinent à fournir des préconisations claires sur les stratégies à mettre en oeuvre pour articuler ces leviers à une échelle locale. Cette thèse vise à explorer l’hypothèse selon laquelle la combinaison de leviers techniques, ainsi que leur distribution dans le paysage, donnent des marges de manoeuvre pour adapter la viticulture au changement climatique. Elle contribue à construire et évaluer quantitativement des stratégies d’adaptation qui combinent plusieurs leviers techniques au sein d’un bassin versant viticole (45 km²). Elle propose une démarche originale de modélisation participative, composée d’une série d’ateliers collectifs entrecoupés de phases de modélisation. Les principaux résultats de cette thèse sont triples. Premièrement, la mobilisation précoce des acteurs dans la démarche a permis de développer un modèle original dont les composantes répondent aux attentes des participants. Ce modèle ad hoc intègre des modèles existants (phénologie, bilan hydrique, ruissellement) et originaux (modèle de rendement GraY), aux échelles de la parcelle et du bassin versant. Deuxièmement, la construction collective des stratégies d’adaptation a favorisé la prise en compte de plusieurs facteurs spatiaux (type de sol, climat, type de production, accès à l’irrigation) pour construire des stratégies pertinentes au sein d’un territoire. Ces stratégies visent à retarder les dates de vendanges, améliorer l’efficience de l’eau et relocaliser le vignoble. Troisièmement, la simulation de ces stratégies sous conditions climatiques futures a montré la capacité de certains secteurs à réduire les pertes de rendement liées au changement climatique en mobilisant plusieurs leviers innovants. Les échanges réguliers avec les acteurs ont enrichi l’évaluation par le modèle, en y ajoutant des aspects économiques (ratio coût/bénéfice), techniques (faisabilité) et sociaux (souhaitabilité). L’approche originale proposée dans cette thèse a permis de rapprocher les acteurs de la filière viticole des travaux issus de la modélisation. Cette approche ouvre ainsi des perspectives pour orienter les travaux de modélisation futurs vers des outils plus adaptés aux attentes d’une filière ou d’un territoire. Elle encourage également la combinaison d’outils de simulation quantitatifs avec des approches participatives pour répondre aux enjeux, entre autres climatiques, du XXIème siècle.
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Total acidity was increased and pH reduced in ‘Cardinal’, ‘Tokay’, and ‘Pinot noir’ berries under a phototemperature of 15°C as compared to 35°C. Nyctotemp of 10, 15, and 20°C also increased acidity and reduced pH of fruits compared to those ripened at nyctotemp of 25 or 30°C, provided phototemp was not greater than 25°C. At 35°C phototemp, acidity of fruits ripened at 10°C nyctotemp was greater than that in fruits ripened at 30°C nyctotemp. Acidity and pH were usually not significantly different, however, between grapes matured at 15 and at 25°C nyctotemp. The level of malate in grape berries was inversely related to temp. Degree Brix of ‘Tokay’ fruits ripened at 35°C phototemp was less than that of fruits ripened at 15°C. However, nyctotemp had relatively little effect on concn of sugars in ‘Tokay’ and ‘Cabernet Sauvignon’ berries. Temperature during maturation had no significant effect on berry wt or on the level of arginine. The amount of proline in grapes depended on cultivar, fruit maturity, and temp during the ripening period.
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The three main components of terroir - soil, climate, and cultivar - were studied simultaneously. Vine development and berry composition of nonirrigated Vitis vinifera L. cv. Merlot, Cabernet franc, and Cabernet Sauvignon were compared on a gravelly soil, a soil with a heavy clay subsoil, and a sandy soil with a water table within the reach of the roots. The influence of climate was assessed with year-to-year variations of maximum and minimum temperatures, degree days (base of 10°C), sunshine hours, ETo, rainfall, and water balance for the period 1996 to 2000. The effects of climate, soil, and cultivar were found to be highly significant with regard to vine behavior and berry composition (an example being anthocyanin concentration). The impacts of climate and soil were greater than that of cultivar. Many of the variables correlated with the intensity of vine water stress. It is likely that the effects of climate and soil on fruit quality are mediated through their influence on vine water status.
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Training a grapevine involves a manipulation of vine form. The type of training may lead to differences in total leaf area and the percentage of leaf area well-exposed to light. Consequently, the ability for a grapevine to photosynthesize efficiently depends upon its training system and the accompanying light microclimate of its leaves. In addition to altering the light microclimate of the canopy, training may impact numerous other variables such as fruit bud differentiation, cluster exposure, vine water status, and leaf transpiration. Modification of vine training systems to achieve balance between vine vigor and yield has led to divided canopy systems that might simultaneously increase yield and improve fruit composition through optimization of canopy light microclimate. Consequently, many training systems have been identified as being capable of improving wine quality through a combination of enhanced canopy and fruit microclimate.
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World production of wine has steadily risen over recent years and consumption has not kept pace with this increase, thus many countries have surpluses of wine which pose problems in international trade. Despite these problems, there is not, generally, a surplus of high quality wines. Quality is not easy to define, but ideally, it should be related to intrinsic visual, taste, or aroma characters which are perceived as above average for that type of wine. Usually this is reflected in the price paid for that wine -- although price is not necessarily a reliable indicator since it can be influenced also by fashion, tradition, availability and personal preferences. Unfortunately, despite the many references to quality and the amount of work which directly or indirectly refers to it, there is still confusion over what contribution climates, sites, and viticultural practices really make. This paper is a review of the effects of these environmental and management practices which may change grape composition and wine quality. Its scope is limited to table wines rather than fortified wines.
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Fruit coloration was investigated in several cultivars of Vitis vinifera L. grown in pots in sunlit phototron rooms held at various day and night temperatures. Mature 'Cardinal', 'Pinot noir', and 'Tokay' fruits ripened at cool-day (15degreesC) and cool-night (15degreesC) temperatures had much greater coloration than fruits ripened at hot-day (35degreesC) and cool-night (15degreesC), hot-day (35degreesC) and warm-night (25degreesC), or cool-day (15degreesC) and warm-night (25degreesC) temperatures. Fruits grown at cool-day warm-night temperatures, however, had significantly greater levels of anthocyanins than fruits ripened at hot day temperatures, regardless of the night temperature. On the other hand, 'Cardinal' and 'Pinot noir' berries grown at hot-day (35degreesC) and warm-night (25 or 30degreesC) had a higher level of anthocyanins than fruit ripened at hot-day cool-night (15 or 10degreesC). A day temperature of 35degreesC completely inhibited anthocyanin synthesis in 'Tokay' berries, regardless of night temperature. Also, a 30degreesC night temperature (day temperature 25degreesC) prevented anthocyanin formation in 'Tokay' and greatly reduced the coloration of 'Cabernet Sauvignon' compared with fruits ripened at 15 and 20degreesC night temperatures. On the basis of fruit coloration, 'Tokay' was least tolerant to hot temperature, and 'Pinot noir, and 'Cabernet Sauvignon' were most tolerant.