No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Synergies and trade-offs in achieving global biodiversity targets
Abstract
Following their failure to achieve a significant reduction in the global rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, world governments adopted 20 new ambitious Aichi biodiversity targets to be met by 2020.There is growing recognition that efforts to achieve one particular biodiversity target can contribute to achieving others, yet little attention is given to the fact that different targets may require conflicting solutions. Consequently, there is a risk that lack of strategic thinking might result, once again, in a failure to achieve governmental commitments to biodiversity conservation. We illustrate this dilemma by focusing on Aichi Target 11. This requires an expansion of terrestrial protected area coverage, which could also contribute to reducing the loss of natural habitats (Target 5), reducing human-induced species decline and extinction (Target 12), and maintaining global carbon stocks (Target 15). We consider the potential impact of expanding protected areas to mitigate global deforestation and the consequences for the distribution of suitable habitat for >10000 species of forest vertebrates (amphibians, birds and mammals). We found that expanding protected areas toward locations with the highest deforestation rates (Target 5) or the highest potential loss of aggregate species' suitable habitat (Target 12) would result in partially different protected area network configurations (overlapping with each other by ca. 73%). Moreover, the latter approach would contribute to safeguarding ca. 30% more global carbon stocks (measures as tons/ha) than the former. Further investigation of synergies and trade-offs between targets would shed light on these and other complex interactions, such as the interaction between reducing overexploitation of natural resources (Targets 6, 7), controlling invasive alien species (Target 9) and preventing extinctions of native species (Target 12). Synergies between targets must be identified and secured soon and trade-offs must be minimized, before the options for co-benefits are reduced by human pressures. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
... Over the last decade, a major paradigmatic shift has occurred in conservation science (Kareiva and Marvier 2012;Mace 2014;Palomo et al. 2014) that includes the adoption of more integrative perspectives in place of a predominant focus on protected areas (PAs), as they were traditionally defined in terms of authoritative governance. At the same time, seminal conservation strategies continue to prioritise PAs as key tools for biodiversity conservation (Jones et al. 2017;Watson et al. 2014) at both the global scale (CBD 2010;Di Marco et al. 2016) and the continental scale (European Parliament 2012; García-Llorente et al. 2018). They are considered crucial (Sandwith et al. 2014) for halting the process of biodiversity loss (Di Marco et al. 2016;Geldmann et al. 2013) and for reducing climate change (Dudley et al. 2010;IUCN 2012;Nogueira et al. 2018;Roberts et al. 2017). ...
... At the same time, seminal conservation strategies continue to prioritise PAs as key tools for biodiversity conservation (Jones et al. 2017;Watson et al. 2014) at both the global scale (CBD 2010;Di Marco et al. 2016) and the continental scale (European Parliament 2012; García-Llorente et al. 2018). They are considered crucial (Sandwith et al. 2014) for halting the process of biodiversity loss (Di Marco et al. 2016;Geldmann et al. 2013) and for reducing climate change (Dudley et al. 2010;IUCN 2012;Nogueira et al. 2018;Roberts et al. 2017). Moreover, a recently adopted SES approach (Cumming 2016;Cumming et al. 2015;Palomo et al. 2014) highlights their role in improving people's well-being at local levels (Dudley 2008;Sandwith et al. 2014;Watson et al. 2014). ...
... Moreover, a recently adopted SES approach (Cumming 2016;Cumming et al. 2015;Palomo et al. 2014) highlights their role in improving people's well-being at local levels (Dudley 2008;Sandwith et al. 2014;Watson et al. 2014). In a context of expanding PAs driven by global policies (CBD 2010;Di Marco et al. 2016;Venter et al. 2014), potential outbreaks of conservation-related conflicts are inevitable due to the extraordinary character of this land use change (Baynham-Herd et al. 2018). These conflicts do not necessarily result from the multifunctionality of PAs, defined in terms of specific type of land use (Dudley and Stolton 2008). ...
Despite the recent paradigmatic shift in conservation science, protected areas (PAs), which are associated with seminal conservation strategies, remain a key tool for achieving biodiversity conservation. Nevertheless, PAs’ effectiveness as conservation measures is undermined by conflicts arising within their socio-ecological systems. Potential reasons for the negative impact of the conflicts include the tendency of researchers to emphasise managerial or behavioural aspects of conservation conflicts, while neglecting to develop theoretical foundations for conflict analysis. We aimed to critically review existing conceptual frameworks applied within the broadly defined field of conservation conflicts and to develop a new more comprehensive framework that better reflects contemporary identified challenges within nature conservation. We particularly proposed and emphasised the integration of a geographical perspective within existing interdisciplinary approaches for the application to PA settings. We systemised and unified conflict-related terminology, assessed the contributions and limitations of existing frameworks and identified critical gaps in the field. These gaps are: inadequate recognition of the spatial aspects of conflict analysis, a lack of consistency between individual-level and community-level frameworks and a lack of systematic linkages among the main structural attributes of conflicts, such as determinants, interests or types of conflicts. We systematically distinguished 26 conflict-related terms, including: conflict frames, images, orientations, factors, categories, issues, potential, or intensity. Our framework covers three major conflict components (determinants, dimensions, levels) and foregrounds the socio-psychological and spatial characteristics of PA conflicts, while enabling systemisation of existing conservation conflict typologies.
... A poor understanding of the potential consequences of conservation targets, the interactions between targets, and the actions needed to achieve them, can lead to unexpectedly poor conservation outcomes, inefficient actions, and lost opportunities for meeting commitments. For example, some of the easiest pathways towards achieving the global target to protect 17% of the terrestrial ecosystems on Earth would not adequately safeguard the biodiversity (see Glossary) this target is intended to conserve [6][7][8][9]. ...
... Scenarios and models provide a powerful means of explicitly accounting for the interactions between targets. Interactions include both synergies and trade-offs in the targets, and in the actions governments undertake to meet each target [8,21,36,47,48]. As an example of how scenarios and models could help to integrate across multiple targets, we consider cross-target links involving Aichi Target 5: 'By 2020, the rate of loss of all natural habitats, including forests, is at least halved and where feasible brought close to zero, and degradation and fragmentation is significantly reduced'. ...
... Target 5 is clearly linked with other targets, both in terms of how actions implemented under other targets will contribute to the achievement of Target 5, and vice versa, where efforts to achieve Target 5 will affect other targets [48]. For example, protection of areas vulnerable to habitat loss under Target 11 might contribute positively to the achievement of Target 5, while reduction of habitat loss under Target 5 will, in turn, contribute positively to reducing the risk of species extinctions under Target 12 [6,8], and to enhancing the provision of some ecosystems services under Target 14 ( Figure 2). Expansion of protected areas (Target 11) may also contribute directly to achieving Target 12 by removing threats other than habitat loss [8,9]. ...
Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear benefits: providing a scientific basis for the wording and quantitative elements of targets; and identifying synergies and trade-offs by accounting for interactions between targets and the actions needed to achieve them. The capacity of scenarios and models to address complexity makes them invaluable for developing meaningful targets and policy, and improving conservation outcomes.
... As the elements of Target 11 encompass the scope of the PoWPA, its implementation is key to achieving other Targets, including 1, 2 , 5, 6, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 18. Actions to meet one Target will influence other Targets [4]. Given the cross-cutting nature of protected areas, synergies and trade-offs between different Targets need to be taken into account [5] in order to make progress towards achieving the overall Mission and Vision of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020. ...
... A systematic review of 76 studies assessing habitat change in terrestrial systems using satellite remote sensing (63), aerial photos (3), a combination of both (5) and in situ data collection (5), showed that, on average, protected areas are losing forest cover, but that rates of forest loss are lower within protected areas than outside of them [32]. The effectiveness of protected areas in reducing forest loss varied across regions, with Southeast Asia experiencing the highest losses, both in absolute terms and compared to non-protected areas. ...
... A systematic review of 76 studies assessing habitat change in terrestrial systems using satellite remote sensing (63), aerial photos (3), a combination of both (5) and in situ data collection (5), showed that, on average, protected areas are losing forest cover, but that rates of forest loss are lower within protected areas than outside of them [32]. The effectiveness of protected areas in reducing forest loss varied across regions, with Southeast Asia experiencing the highest losses, both in absolute terms and compared to non-protected areas. ...
... Recognizing that the condition of biodiversity is influenced by multiple pressures and underlying drivers that must be counteracted by diverse policy responses, the CBD adopted a more sophisticated approach for the decade following 2010, developing a Strategic Plan on Biodiversity that included 20 Aichi Targets (CBD 2010b). Halfway toward the end-date for achieving these targets, it is clear that despite accelerating policy and management responses, trends in the state of biodiversity are unlikely to improve by 2020 without both a substantial scaling up and refocussing of efforts (Tittensor et al. 2014;CBD 2014) and a better consideration of the synergies and trade-offs in achieving multiple targets (Perrings et al. 2010;Di Marco et al. 2016a). Moreover, the articulation and specification of the Aichi Targets themselves may also constitute an additional challenge for those implementing actions to achieve them. ...
... It is critical that national biodiversity strategies and action plans (which set out CBD Parties' plans for implementing the actions needed to achieve the 20 Aichi Targets) take into account the potential synergies and trade-offs between targets (Stafford-Smith 2014; Di Marco et al. 2016a). For example, actions to expand terrestrial protected area coverage (target 11) could also contribute to reducing habitat loss (target 5) avoiding extinctions (target 12), and maintaining carbon stocks (target 15; Di Marco et al. 2016a). ...
... It is critical that national biodiversity strategies and action plans (which set out CBD Parties' plans for implementing the actions needed to achieve the 20 Aichi Targets) take into account the potential synergies and trade-offs between targets (Stafford-Smith 2014; Di Marco et al. 2016a). For example, actions to expand terrestrial protected area coverage (target 11) could also contribute to reducing habitat loss (target 5) avoiding extinctions (target 12), and maintaining carbon stocks (target 15; Di Marco et al. 2016a). ...
The world is currently not on course to achieve most of the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Targets to address biodiversity loss. One challenge for those implementing actions to achieve them may be the complexity and lack of clarity in the wording of the targets, which also make it difficult to stimulate and quantify progress. Drawing on experience in developing and measuring indicators to assess progress toward targets, we identify four key issues: ambiguity, quantifiability, complexity, and redundancy. The magnitude of required commitments under some targets is rendered ambiguous by the use of imprecise terms (e.g., “substantially”), while many targets contain poorly defined operational terms (e.g., “essential services”). Seventy percent of targets lack quantifiable elements, meaning that there is no clear binary or numeric threshold to be met in order for the target to be achieved. Most targets are excessively complex, containing up to seven different elements, while one-third of them contain redundancies. In combination, these four issues make it difficult to operationalize the targets and to ensure consistent interpretation by signatories. For future policy commitments, we recommend the adoption of a smaller number of more focused headline targets (alongside subsidiary targets) that are specific, quantified, simple, succinct, and unambiguous.
... As PA networks across the world continue to expand in response to the CBD targets, it is crucial that we understand the trade-offs between targets focused on ecosystem representation (Target 11) and those focused on threatened species habitat requirements (Target 12; Marques et al. 2014;Venter et al. 2014;Di Marco et al. 2015). Here, we address this challenge and provide a systematic approach for simultaneously maximizing representation of threatened species and ecosystems within fixed-size PA networks, using Australia as a case study. ...
... Although the work we present here is based on information from one country, many of the same challenges faced by land management agencies in Australia occur in other countries (Waldron et al. 2013;Venter et al. 2014;Di Marco et al. 2015). This is because countries are challenged by the goals of meeting their current CBD and country-level PA targets (Waldron et al. 2013;Walsh et al. 2013). ...
... This is because countries are challenged by the goals of meeting their current CBD and country-level PA targets (Waldron et al. 2013;Walsh et al. 2013). There is a clear need for systematic thinking around targets for species and ecosystem representation, and transparent analysis of the likely compromises between species-based and area-based objectives (Di Marco et al. 2015). The overall lesson from our study is that even when countries cannot reach full protection, it is still possible to make progress toward the targets logically and efficiently. ...
Balancing the representation of ecosystems and threatened species habitats is critical for optimizing protected area (PA) networks and achieving the Convention on Biological Diversity strategic goals. Here we provide a systematic approach for maximizing representativeness of ecosystems and threatened species within a constrained total PA network size, using Australia as a case study. We show that protection of 24.4% of Australia is needed to achieve 17% representation for each ecosystem and all threatened species habitat targets. When the size of the PA estate is constrained, trade-off curves between ecosystem and species targets are J-shaped, indicating potential "win-win" configurations. For example, optimally increasing the current PA network to 17% could protect 9% of each ecosystem and ensure that all threatened species achieve at least 78% of their targets. This method of integrating species and ecosystem targets in PA planning allows nations to maximize different PA goals under financial and geographical constraints.
... Conserving the areas highlighted in our results can pay large dividends in carbon sequestration to reduce climate change, as well as providing other ecosystem services while reducing extinction risk and maintaining biodiversity. However, the converse is not necessarily true -maximizing carbon sequestration may not automatically conserve these critical biodiversity and climate priorities (Di Marco et al. 2015). Carbon sequestration, both above-ground and below-ground, may be higher in lowland ecosystems. ...
... Carbon sequestration, both above-ground and below-ground, may be higher in lowland ecosystems. A strategy to maximize per unit area carbon sequestration by pushing agriculture and other development into more marginal uplands will require clearing more habitat to meet production needs, in the very habitats that are most important to conserve (Di Marco et al. 2015, Rahbek et al. 2019a. In some cases, a strategy of conserving more upland area (to sequester the same amount of carbon) could meet the same carbon goal, provide substantial ecosystem services such as watershed protection, while having much greater biodiversity benefit and potentially, as tradeoff, allowing some lowland areas with high agricultural potential to be developed. ...
Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post‐2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.
... Conserving the areas highlighted in our results can pay large dividends in carbon sequestration to reduce climate change, as well as providing other ecosystem services while reducing extinction risk and maintaining biodiversity. However, the converse is not necessarily true -maximizing carbon sequestration may not automatically conserve these critical biodiversity and climate priorities (Di Marco et al. 2015). Carbon sequestration, both above-ground and below-ground, may be higher in lowland ecosystems. ...
... Carbon sequestration, both above-ground and below-ground, may be higher in lowland ecosystems. A strategy to maximize per unit area carbon sequestration by pushing agriculture and other development into more marginal uplands will require clearing more habitat to meet production needs, in the very habitats that are most important to conserve (Di Marco et al. 2015, Rahbek et al. 2019a. In some cases, a strategy of conserving more upland area (to sequester the same amount of carbon) could meet the same carbon goal, provide substantial ecosystem services such as watershed protection, while having much greater biodiversity benefit and potentially, as tradeoff, allowing some lowland areas with high agricultural potential to be developed. ...
Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post-2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.
... Conserving the areas highlighted in our results can pay large dividends in carbon sequestration to reduce climate change, as well as providing other ecosystem services while reducing extinction risk and maintaining biodiversity. However, the converse is not necessarily true -maximizing carbon sequestration may not automatically conserve these critical biodiversity and climate priorities (Di Marco et al. 2015). Carbon sequestration, both above-ground and below-ground, may be higher in lowland ecosystems. ...
... Carbon sequestration, both above-ground and below-ground, may be higher in lowland ecosystems. A strategy to maximize per unit area carbon sequestration by pushing agriculture and other development into more marginal uplands will require clearing more habitat to meet production needs, in the very habitats that are most important to conserve (Di Marco et al. 2015, Rahbek et al. 2019a. In some cases, a strategy of conserving more upland area (to sequester the same amount of carbon) could meet the same carbon goal, provide substantial ecosystem services such as watershed protection, while having much greater biodiversity benefit and potentially, as tradeoff, allowing some lowland areas with high agricultural potential to be developed. ...
Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post‐2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.
... One explanation for the failing biodiversity agenda is that, even within one policy area (e.g. the Aichi biodiversity targets), there will be instances of both conflict and synergy between achieving different targets, rendering simultaneous achievement of all targets difficult or even impossible (Di Marco et al., 2016;Marques et al., 2014). ...
... Ignoring these relationships by working to achieve each of the SDG targets in isolation may lead to perverse outcomes, for instance when countries focus primarily on easy to achieve targets while neglecting more systemic problems (Nilsson, Griggs, & Visbeck, 2016). In the biodiversity agenda, better understanding of interactions among targets may improve the efficiency of achieving multiple targets, by avoiding trade-offs and making use of co-benefits (Di Marco et al., 2016). In the broader context of wildlife conservation and human development, however, such win-win situations may be rare (Barrett, Travis, & Dasgupta, 2011;Brandon & Wells, 1992;McShane et al., 2011). ...
The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include economic, social and environmental dimensions of human development and make explicit commitments to all of life on Earth. Evidence of continuing global biodiversity loss has, at the same time, led to a succession of internationally agreed conservation targets. With multiple targets (even within one policy realm, e.g. the CBD Aichi Targets for biodiversity), it is possible for different indicators to respond in the same direction, in opposite directions or to show no particular relationship. When considering the different sectors of the SDGs, there are many possible relationships among indicators that have been widely discussed, but rarely analysed in detail. Here, we present a comparative cross‐national analysis exploring temporally integrated linkages between human development indicators and wildlife conservation trends. The results suggest that in lower income countries there are negative relationships between measures of human population growth and bird and mammal population abundance trends outside protected areas. The results also suggest a positive relationship between economic growth and wildlife population trends in lower income countries. We stress, however, the need for future research to further explore the relationships between economic growth and natural resource‐based imports. Our results highlight a clear potential for compatibility of the conservation and development agendas and support the need for further integration among sustainable development strategies. A plain language summary is available for this article. Plain Language Summary
... Concerns about the rate of implementation of the conventions have triggered discussions about the role of MEAs in halting the loss of biodiversity (e.g., Jóhannsdóttir et al. 2010;Di Marco et al. 2016). Two main concerns have emerged. ...
... First, many countries lack the resources, capacity and adequate legal instruments to respond to environmental obligations. Second, numerous convention-specific targets and lack of streamlining across the conventions may obscure a clear path toward the overall societal goal of halting the loss of biodiversity (Di Marco et al. 2016). Streamlining in this context refers to the coordinated efforts to align targets and deliverables of the individual conventions to improve efficiency and avoid duplication of efforts. ...
Eight conventions make up the biodiversity cluster of Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) which provide the critical international legal framework for the conservation and sustainable use of nature. However, concerns about the rate of implementation of the conventions at the national level have triggered discussions about the effectiveness of these MEAs in halting the loss of biodiversity. Two main concerns have emerged, lack of capacity and resources, and lack of coherence in implementing multiple conventions. Here we focus on the latter, outlining the mechanisms by which international conventions are translated into national policy, specifically the role of the ‘Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020’ and the associated Aichi Biodiversity Targets as a unifying grand plan for biodiversity conservation. This strategic plan has been used to coordinate and align targets to promote and enable more effective implementation across all biodiversity‐related conventions. However, a survey of 139 key stakeholders from 88 countries suggested opportunities to further improve cooperation among the biodiversity‐related conventions. The roadmap for improving synergies among conventions agreed at the 13th Convention on Biological Diversity's Conference of Parties in Cancun, Mexico in 2016 can help to address these concerns. Further, we suggest ways that the scientific community can actively engage and contribute to the policy process by: 1) establishing a science‐policy platform to address key knowledge gaps, 2) improving data gathering, reporting and monitoring, 3) developing indicators that adequately support implementation of national plans and strategies, and 4) providing evidence‐based recommendations to policy makers. This will be particularly important as 2020 approaches and work to develop a new biodiversity agenda for the next decade is beginning.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
... For an effective forest biodiversity conservation, it is important to identify synergies and tradeoffs (Perrings et al. 2010;Di Marco et al. 2016). Our analyses of biodiversity and forest conservation objectives showed that COs with functions/cross-connections to other levels of COs, while indeed common in some concepts, could be more frequently considered by regional stakeholders. ...
The global biodiversity crisis is, along with climate change, the greatest challenge facing mankind. To ensure the long-term protection of biodiversity, conservation objectives must be agreed upon by all stakeholders, defined in concepts, and appropriate actions taken. This involves considering the often contrasting needs of nature and people and examining ethical-moral issues about the value of nature as well as different approaches to nature conservation. In this thesis, conservation objectives and values in German forest conservation concepts, considering ecological, political and social aspects are analysed in an interdisciplinary approach. The present state of forest conservation in Germany is discussed and current and future challenges are described. Based on this assessment of needs new methods for the classification of conservation objectives and for the assessment of forest conservation objects are presented and possible changes in conservation responsibility in view of climate change are proposed. Forests support a significant proportion of global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services, and their long-term conservation and sustainable use is becoming more important than ever in the face of climate change. Due to the diverse demands for conservation and use, a consensus on the objectives is necessary in forest conservation. Only a transparent system based on consistent objectives and measures is likely to be sufficiently accepted and implemented. Therefore, a hierarchical framework for the classification of nature conservation objectives was developed in Chapter 2 of this thesis. Within higher-level target areas, desired target properties were assigned to conservation objects, which are to be achieved through certain measures. Using this framework, the contents of biodiversity and forest conservation concepts were examined for commonalities and differences. A broad consensus on conservation objectives was found in the concepts across different stakeholder groups and spatial scales, with the conservation of species, ecosystems and structures in forests rated as particularly important. Deficits were identified with regard to genetic diversity, abiotic resources and social-cultural objectives, as well as a mismatch in the transfer of knowledge. The reasons for these inconsistencies in forest conservation include conflicting objectives, lack of coordination across scales and inadequate implementation of objectives. In private forests, which make up half of the German forest area, the implementation of nature conservation measures is a particular challenge. Private forest owners often have reservations about sovereign nature conservation regulations and are less willing to participate due to the financial expenses involved. In order to ensure higher acceptance, forest conservation measures should be financially compensated. However, the contractual agreement of nature conservation services and financial remuneration (= contract-based nature conservation) has so far found limited application in private forests. Since the successful implementation of contract-based forest conservation requires a system of reasonable measures, the conservation objects identified in Chapter 2 (forest habitat types, structures and processes in forests) were assigned a conservation value in Chapter 3 on the basis of the need for, and the worthiness of, protection. Oak and mixed oak forests, dry-warm beech forests, historical forms of forest use (coppice forests or wood pastures) and natural structures such as deadwood (deciduous tree species, standing and lying) or habitat trees have a high nature conservation value. Based on the initial value and the expected value development, it was assessed whether conservation or restoration measures within the framework of contract-based forest conservation with varying durations are suitable. Contract-based forest conservation is particularly suitable for conservation objects with a high initial value if a loss of value can be avoided and if a high increase in value can be expected. It is not suitable for low initial values and a low restoration potential. With this framework, private forest owners can easily assess which nature conservation measures are suitable in their forest, increasing the likelihood that they will apply contract-based forest conservation in the future. Climate change and its predicted effects in terms of intensity and frequency of disturbances require an adaptation of silvicultural management. In Germany, silvicultural planning tools such as forest development types are often only related to the economic productivity function, while nature conservation demands are given little consideration. Therefore, the framework developed in Chapter 3 for the conservation value assessment of forest habitat types was adapted in Chapter 4 to the economically relevant tree species (beech, oak, pine, spruce, fir, Douglas-fir and larch) and further developed for application in forest stands according to the potential natural vegetation of the location. With the new framework, the nature conservation impacts of silvicultural planning and future tree species composition in forest stands can be spatially-explicitly assessed. Certain silvicultural combinations of tree species can lead to a reduction in the initial nature conservation value, which is determined by the forest habitat type naturally occurring there. The highest nature conservation value can be achieved if the planned tree species are both autochthonous and a natural component of the respective forest habitat type. The framework was trialled to assess planned forest development types using a Germany-wide transect. In most cases, the forest development type combinations led to a reduction of the initial nature conservation value, as the restricted tree species selection of the forest development types did not correspond to the diverse species composition of the natural forest habitat types. With this evaluation framework, forest planning can also be assessed in terms of nature conservation and be adapted to a tree species composition that is as close to nature and site-specific as possible. The uncertainties of climate change and the associated changes in environmental conditions also pose new challenges for nature conservation and may require an adaptation of the conservation objectives and justifications. Chapter 5 therefore investigated whether the favourable conservation status of forest habitat types of the Habitats Directive remains a well-founded objective when confronted with climate change. In this context, both the question of the conservation justification and an assessment of the future development trend of the conservation status of forest habitat types of the Habitats Directive were addressed. It was shown that current niche and species distribution models of habitat types and tree species indicate that a climate change-induced increase in drought can lead to losses in area of forest habitat types such as the subalpine sycamore-beech forest and the montane-alpine soil-acid spruce forest. In the case of bog woodland and alluvial forests, successful restoration should be the first priority before future development can be assessed. Forest habitat types on secondary sites, such as mixed oak forests, will probably continue to require active management measures to restore and secure a favourable conservation status in the long term. The distribution models for beech forest habitat types showed increasing uncertainty regarding future distribution, and for the most part no significant negative change could be identified, even under climate change. Flexibilisation and adaptation of conservation objectives should therefore only take place on the basis of evidence and within the framework of adaptive management. Overall, no clear indications is found to abandon the favourable conservation status of forest habitat types under climate change as a well-founded objective of nature conservation. This thesis discusses the importance of forest conservation concepts in today’s world and the difficulties that can arise in the classification and implementation of forest conservation objectives. Furthermore, the challenges that may arise in the conservation value assessment of conservation objects and tree species as well as in future implementation of forest conservation measures are identified. It was found that the systematic analysis of conservation objectives has gained importance in conservation research and that there is a broad consensus on the objectives of forest conservation in Germany. Nevertheless, there is a considerable need for more specification, especially with regard to the implementation of contract-based nature conservation in private forests. The frameworks presented for the derivation of nature conservation values can be helpful in turning abstract properties such as nature conservation values into a simplified and comprehensible system. Forestry and nature conservation stakeholders can thus be sensitised to the conservation value of forest biodiversity. In order to reduce existing prejudices between stakeholders, it is also necessary to further revise the funding system in Germany with regard to its financial scope and the effectiveness of conservation measures, and to provide practical recommendations for action based on scientific findings. This thesis underlines that a constant adaptation of forest management strategies is necessary for forest conservation and silviculture to cope with the challenges of climate change. For forests to maintain their diverse functions and ecosystem services in the future, semi-natural, species-rich resilient mixed forests composed of predominantly native tree species should be favoured and the existing objectives in nature conservation should not be abandoned without reason. Only in this way can forest conservation in Germany and also worldwide be successful in the long term.
... Macroecology can further contribute to global conservation planning by highlighting synergies and trade-offs between global conservation targets (Blanchard et al. 2014, Di Marco et al. 2016). An illustrative example is provided by the Aichi Target 11, which states that at least ...
Human activities are altering the structure of ecosystems, compromising the benefits they provide to nature and people. Effective conservation actions and management under ongoing global change rely on a better understanding of socio-ecological patterns and processes across broad spatiotemporal scales. Both macroecology and conservation science contribute to this improved understanding and, while they have different scopes, these disciplines have become increasingly interconnected over time. Here we describe examples of how macroecology has contributed to conservation science, and how conservation science can motivate further macroecological developments and applications. We identify challenges and untapped potential to further strengthen the links between these two disciplines. Major macroecological contributions include developing ecological theory, providing methodologies useful for biodiversity assessments and projections, making data more accessible and addressing knowledge gaps. These contributions have played a major role in the development of conservation science, and have supported outreach to policy makers, media, and the public. Nonetheless, a pure macroecological lens is limited to inform conservation decisions, particularly in local contexts, which frequently leads to the misuse of macroecological analyses for conservation applications, misunderstandings of research outputs, and skepticism among conservation practitioners and scientists. We propose possible solutions to overcome these challenges and strengthen links between macroecology and conservation science, including a stronger focus on ecological mechanisms and predictive approaches, and the creation of hybrid journals and meetings. Finally, we suggest new avenues for macroecological research that would further benefit conservation science.
... In turn, these objectives require strategies to restore natural ecosystems following disturbance events and to assist their migration to new locations under conditions of change (Temmerman et al. 2013). Experience to date, however, suggests that implementation remains difficult due to the challenge of designing solutions that avoid unnecessary trade-offs and can generate buy-in from the stakeholders involved (Adams et al. 2016;Di Marco et al. 2016;Wamsler 2015). ...
Barrier sandspits are biodiverse natural features that regulate the development of lagoon systems and are popular areas for human settlement. Despite many studies on barrier island dynamics, few have investigated the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on sandspits. In peri-urban settings, we hypothesised that shoreline environment change would be strongly dependent on contemporary land use decisions, whilst modern engineering capabilities also present new opportunities for working with nature. Our study site in Christchurch, New Zealand, included a unique example of SLR caused by tectonic subsidence and an associated managed retreat initiative. We used a novel scenario modelling approach to evaluate both shorelines simultaneously for 0.25m SLR increments and incorporating open coast sediment supply in 25-year periods. Our key questions addressed the potential impacts of shoreline change on open coast dune and estuarine-coast saltmarsh ecosystems and implications for the role of ‘nature-based’ climate change solutions. The results identify challenges for dune conservation, with a third of the dune system eliminated in the ‘1-m SLR in 100-year’ scenario. The associated exposure of urban areas to natural hazards such as extreme storms and tsunami will likely fuel demand for seawalls unless natural alternatives can be enabled. In contrast, the managed retreat initiative on the backshore presents an opportunity to restart saltmarsh accretion processes seaward of coastal defences with the potential to reverse decades of degradation. Considering both shorelines simultaneously highlights the existence of pinch-points from opposing forces that result in small land volumes above the tidal range. Societal adaptation is delicately poised between the paradigms of resisting or accommodating nature and challenged by the long perimeter and confined nature of the sandspit feature. The use of innovative policy measures in disaster recovery contexts, as highlighted here, may offer a beneficial framework for enabling nature-based solutions to climate change and natural hazards.
... As the destruction of natural habitats continues to threaten wildlife populations, reducing the negative impact of human activities is an important aim of conservation (Oldekop, Holmes, Harris, & Evans, 2016). Accordingly, designating new protected areas and sustaining existing ones are key tools for halting biodiversity loss (Di Marco et al., 2016). Despite their key function for conservation, the legal designation of protected areas inevitably involves limitations to stakeholders' opportunities to use and gain income from the land. ...
Abstract Biodiversity conservation in protected areas requires strict legal limitations to land use. In the Civilian Control Zone (CCZ) of the Republic of Korea (ROK), military control has created an accidental sanctuary for the world's rarest crane species: the white‐naped crane (Antigone vipio) and the red‐crowned crane (Grus japonensis). Yet varying land use demands on the CCZ by stakeholders have caused disagreements in achieving cooperative crane conservation. This paper aims to clarify relevant stakeholders' interconnection and their motives that have led them to either promote or inhibit crane conservation in the Cheorwon Basin of the CCZ. To answer these questions, we conducted participatory Net‐Map interviews and identified stakeholders with a powerful role in crane conservation. Our results identify 44 stakeholders whose trust relations occurred twice as often as conflicts. More than 80% of stakeholders included in this study supported crane conservation initiatives. We attribute local farmers' increased level of environmental stewardship to two key schemes: a community‐led farming project generating financial incentives and a communication channel for stakeholders. Our case study demonstrates that Net‐Map is a valid tool to analyze human‐crane interactions, which is critical to ensure acceptance of legal restrictions to land use as well as crane conservation.
... Biodiversity targets need to be more easily quantified in the future and to have a smaller number of more focused objectives with specific sub targets to highlight specific actions to take to reduce biodiversity loss . NBSAPs and National Reports need to take into account potential synergies and tradeoffs between existing, such as the Sustainable Development Goals, and future biodiversity targets (Di Marco, Butchart, Visconti, et al., 2016;Stafford-Smith, 2014) and to help spur future knowledge product development and implementation, particularly for the marine realm (Weatherdon et al., 2017). ...
The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) currently serves as the multilateral environmental framework for protecting biodiversity. Parties to the CBD are required to develop and submit National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) and National Reports. These documents serve as the instruments used by governments and stakeholders to identify their priorities, implement, and track progress to the CBD. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has produced biodiversity and conservation knowledge products that are fundamental for tracking the progress of targets such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. We examined if countries in the Americas are using knowledge products based on IUCN standards to help construct their documents; 234 documents were analyzed for knowledge product keywords. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species was mentioned in 91.8% of keyword‐coded segments. IUCN publications, Protected Areas Categories, Key Biodiversity Areas, the Red List of Ecosystems and World Database on Protected Areas had 8.2% of the remaining segments. Further studies should investigate awareness of knowledge products among national focal points for the CBD to determine their limited use in document development. IUCN knowledge products should continue to form an integral part of future indicators during this critical moment for biodiversity conservation.
... Both conservation action and renewable energy production can require large areas of land, with the latter requiring up to ten times more land area than fossil fuel thermal facilities to produce equivalent amounts of energy (Lee & David, 2018;Trainor, McDonald, & Fargione, 2016;UNCCD, 2018). Since energy infrastructure development can damage the environment through habitat conversion and degradation (via construction of roads and infrastructure) and increased species mortality (via collisions), the introduction of renewable energy generators into conservation areas could undermine biodiversity conservation efforts (Allison, Root, & Frumhoff, 2014;Bellard, Bertelsmeier, Leadley, Thuiller, & Courchamp, 2012;Di Marco et al., 2015;Santangeli et al., 2016;Trainor et al., 2016;Tucker et al., 2018;UNCCD, 2018). ...
Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy is fundamental for halting anthropogenic climate change. However, renewable energy facilities can be land‐use intensive and impact conservation areas, and little attention has been given to whether the aggregated effect of energy transitions poses a substantial threat to global biodiversity. Here, we assess the extent of current and likely future renewable energy infrastructure associated with onshore wind, hydropower and solar photovoltaic generation, within three important conservation areas: protected areas, Key Biodiversity Areas and Earth’s remaining wilderness. We identified 2,206 fully operational renewable energy facilities within the boundaries of these conservation areas, with another 922 facilities under development. Combined, these facilities span and are degrading 886 protected areas, 749 Key Biodiversity Areas, and 40 distinct wilderness areas. Two trends are particularly concerning. First, while the majority of historical overlap occurs in Western Europe, the renewable electricity facilities under development increasingly overlap with conservation areas in South East Asia, a globally important region for biodiversity. Second, this next wave of renewable energy infrastructure represents a ~30% increase in the number of protected areas and Key Biodiversity Areas impacted and could increase the number of compromised wilderness areas by ~60%. If the world continues to rapidly transition towards renewable energy these areas will face increasing pressure to allow infrastructure expansion. Coordinated planning of renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation is essential to avoid conflicts that compromise their respective objectives.
... The utility of our work extends beyond conservation and can also inform sustainable development planning. Conservation action within some of the hotspots we identified (especially in Southeast Asia) are likely to deliver synergistic benefits to other environmental goals, such as carbon conservation and global reduction of deforestation rates (Di Marco et al. 2016a). Additionally, according to our definition, species threat refugia do not necessarily have to be off limits to human development, just free of the actions and land-uses that directly threaten species found in that area. ...
Wilderness areas hold an exceptional range of environmental values but are being rapidly destroyed. In this thesis I addressed key questions relevant to conserving wilderness and biodiversity. I created the first temporally intercomparable global maps of terrestrial wilderness, enabling an analysis of recent wilderness loss. I then analysed where wilderness loss is impacting threatened species globally, and Natural World Heritage Sites, which are important places set aside to protect threatened species and wilderness. I then analysed opportunities for the World Heritage Convention to contribution to wilderness conservation, and present a case study of wilderness conservation in an African protected area.
... The utility of our work extends beyond conservation and can inform sustainable development planning. Conservation action within some of the hotspots of impact we identified (especially in Southeast Asia) are likely to deliver synergistic benefits to other environmental goals, such as carbon conservation and global reduction of deforestation rates [52]. Additionally, according to our definition, species threat refugia do not necessarily have to be off limits to human development, just free of the actions and land usage that directly threaten species found in that area. ...
Author summary
The biggest drivers of global biodiversity loss are hunting, harvesting, and the conversion of natural habitats for agriculture, urbanisation, and other industrial activity. However, our understanding of where these ‘threats’ actually impact sensitive species is extremely limited across Earth. Here, we map the distribution of threats within the known ranges of 5,457 terrestrial birds, mammals, and amphibians globally. We map only those threats within a species range that are known to specifically endanger that species. We show that threats are extensive across the majority of species’ ranges, severely limiting the area within which species can survive. Concerningly, 1,237 species (almost one-quarter of those assessed) are impacted by threats across >90% of their distribution, and 395 species are impacted by threats across their entire range. These species will almost certainly face extinction without conservation intervention to remove threats. We identify global hotspots of impacted species richness and also ‘coolspots’ that act as refuges from threats, providing essential information for conservation planning and action.
... Understanding synergies and trade-offs between goals within specific global agreements (e.g. Di Marco et al., 2015;Pradhan et al., 2017) and between distinct global agreements (e.g. Von Stechow et al., 2016;Le Gouvello et al., 2017) can be an important step to reduce confusion and enhance focus for policy design and implementation at national and local level. ...
... Although some individual countries have met their commitments for PAs, many others have not (COPCBD 2016). And even once PAs are gazetted, they may not cover key centers of biological richness (Venter et al. 2018), fail to protect important species (Pimm et al. 2014), or produce trade-offs among their various purposes (Di Moreno et al. 2015). If a global conservation strategy involved only public land and statutory PAs, we would be severely challenged to meet the 2020 targets established by the Convention on Biological Diversity (https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/). ...
In many countries around the globe, private freehold lands cover large areas. Conservation on these private lands, next to statutory protected areas, promises to play a critical role in efforts for reaching internationally agreed environmental protection targets. Lying at the heart of an emerging land system science, in which ecology, economics, geography, psychology, and other social sciences interact, private land conservation is reflecting the intertwined and multiscalar processes of our rapidly transforming world. Situated at this disciplinary meeting point, private land conservation invites a great breadth of approaches and cross-disciplinary work that offer deep insights into social and environmental change, often from surprising angles. Although many questions remain in private land conservation, we can now build on a large body of recent high-quality studies as we push this field forward in both research and practice. The Special Feature "Private Land Conservation - Landowner Motives, Policies, and Outcomes of Conservation Measures in Unprotected Landscapes" brings together contributions that explore the diversity of recent advances in private land conservation science. As an introduction to this Special Feature, first we are reviewing recent dynamics in important social-ecological drivers with bearing on private land conservation science. We go on to introduce the individual contributions to this Special Feature and then examine common themes as they are emerging from these papers, including the need for flexibility in conservation approaches, pursuit of community cobenefits of conservation, increasing consideration of environmental justice questions, and acknowledgment of the importance of social psychology in shaping private land conservation. We conclude with identification of knowledge gaps and recommendations for future research, as we advance from diagnostics to normative work in private land conservation science.
... Protection of natural habitats that reduces land clearing can serve both the purpose of preserving carbon stocks and protecting ecosystems. This means that different environmental policy goals, such as climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, can be achieved simultaneously with the same investment ( Di Marco et al. 2016). A much-debated example of carbon conservation schemes is the UN mechanism for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+), which is primarily aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions but can have also direct implications for biodiversity conservation ( Venter et al. 2009a;Thomas et al. 2013). ...
Protecting biomass carbon stocks to mitigate climate change has direct implications for biodiversity conservation. Yet, evidence that a positive association exists between carbon density and species richness is contrasting. Here, we test how this association varies (1) across spatial extents and (2) as a function of how strongly carbon and species richness depend on environmental variables. We found the correlation weakens when moving from larger extents, e.g. realms, to narrower extents, e.g. ecoregions. For ecoregions, a positive correlation emerges when both species richness and carbon density vary as functions of the same environmental variables (climate, soil, elevation). In 20% of tropical ecoregions, there are opportunities to pursue carbon conservation with direct biodiversity co-benefits, while other ecoregions require careful planning for both species and carbon to avoid potentially perverse outcomes. The broad assumption of a linear relationship between carbon and biodiversity can lead to undesired outcomes.
... • Explore synergies between biodiversity targets: This report does not evaluate synergies between Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 and other Aichi Targets. Nevertheless, these synergies exist and have been explored (see Di Marco et al., 2015 andMarques et al., 2014). For example, expanding and effectively managing protected areas might help to conserve threatened species (Target 12) and prevent habitat loss (Target 5). ...
... It ensures that all biodiversity features of interest are included within a PA network. Testing tradeoffs between actions is common practice in conservation, and trade-offs between Aichi Targets (i.e., 11 and 12) have already been identified (Marco et al. 2015). Evaluating trade-offs and synergies within targets, such as rapid land acquisitions and achieving representation, is imperative for determining the impacts of conservation commitments and achieving desired outcomes. ...
Representing all ecosystem types in protected areas (PAs) is central to international conservation agreements (i.e. Aichi Target 11) and ensuring the persistence of biodiversity. In response to these agreements we have seen rapid growth of PA networks but we do not know how this affects ecosystem representation. We explored this question by investigating drivers and trends of representation during periods of rapid land acquisition using the Protection Equality metric. We found that 90.9% of studied countries have improved protection equality through time. Periods of rapid area expansion resulted in greater increases in protection equality, particularly through multiple, smaller PAs as opposed to fewer, larger PAs. However, observed increases may not be due to strategic planning as protection equality from random PA allocation was statistically similar to observed values within six country-level simulations. Future international agreements should hold countries accountable to meeting multiple objectives and prioritize conservation outcomes over individual targets. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
... However, at present deforestation is one of the main causes of amphibian decline [4][5]. Deforestation is not only a problem for amphibians in protected areas of Slovakia [6][7]but is also a global issue [8][9][10]. The main drivers of forest degradation in Slovakia are logging (both legal and illegal) [11] and construction of forest roads [12]. ...
This study investigates the effect of forest cover in close proximity to breeding ponds (N = 29) together with the effect of the presence or absence of other amphibian species on the residual body condition index of Bombina variegata (N = 106). PCA and ANOVA analysis showed that body condition index was higher in toads found in breeding ponds with higher forest cover within a radius of 50 m. This observation confirms the results of other authors. Other amphibian species (Bufo bufo, Rana temporaria, Triturus montadoni) occurred together with Bombina variegata mostly in ponds surrounded by larger deforested areas. Furthermore, the significantly lower body condition index of Bombina variegata was observed mostly in ponds occupied by other amphibian species (p<0.001). Results suggest that Bombina variegata is better adapted to shaded environments in comparison to other amphibians and therefore is able to achieve higher body condition in forest ponds not only due to higher nutrient availability and higher moisture but also decreased competition.
... However, the framework linkages are assumed rather than evidencebased, and the metrics of biodiversity are rather weak proxies for global metrics, being based on available data but without evidence of causal associations or knowledge of the dynamic relationships involved. Developing linked indicator sets, based on established cause-effect and feedback relationships has been recognised as important (Sparks et al. 2011), and become especially important when considering the different Aichi targets which are heterogeneous in intent and unlikely all to be achievable simultaneously (Di Marco et al. 2016;Joppa et al. 2013;Perrings et al. 2011). ...
Many metrics can be used to capture trends in biodiversity, and in turn these metrics inform biodiversity indicators. Sampling biases, genuine differences between metrics, or both, can often cause indicators to appear to be in conflict. This lack of congruence confuses policy makers and the general public, hindering effective responses to the biodiversity crisis. We show how different and seemingly incongruous metrics of biodiversity can in fact emerge from the same scenario of biodiversity change. We develop a simple, evidence-based narrative of biodiversity change and implement it in a simulation model. The model demonstrates how, for example, species richness can remain stable in a given landscape whereas other measures (e.g., compositional similarity) can be in sharp decline. We suggest that linking biodiversity metrics in a simple model will support more robust indicator development, enable stronger predictions of biodiversity change, and provide policy-relevant advice at a range of scales. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
... The wide CIs on these estimates highlight the urgent need for improved data on the management of protected areas. To help decide whether to expand or change the management of the protected area network requires information on the costs of expansion versus changes in management, the representation of species not currently under protection 41 and the extent to which these options achieve other globally agreed conservation targets 42 . Nevertheless, other recent studies also suggest that increasing the performance, rather than the total coverage of protected areas, may achieve the desired outcomes for biodiversity more efficiently 39,40,43,44 : this is an important issue requiring further study. ...
Protected areas are widely considered essential for biodiversity conservation. However, few global studies have demonstrated that protection benefits a broad range of species. Here, using a new global biodiversity database with unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage, we compare four biodiversity measures at sites sampled in multiple land uses inside and outside protected areas. Globally, species richness is 10.6% higher and abundance 14.5% higher in samples taken inside protected areas compared with samples taken outside, but neither rarefaction-based richness nor endemicity differ significantly. Importantly, we show that the positive effects of protection are mostly attributable to differences in land use between protected and unprotected sites. Nonetheless, even within some human-dominated land uses, species richness and abundance are higher in protected sites. Our results reinforce the global importance of protected areas but suggest that protection does not consistently benefit species with small ranges or increase the variety of ecological niches.
... Under the Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD, 2010), signatory nations face the challenge of implementing rapid and e ective biodiversity policies. In particular, the CBD Aichi targets 11 and 12 imply the expansion of the global protected area network and the prevention of species extinction, which can be achieved synergistically (Di Marco et al., 2016b). Adopting species persistence targets within conservation planning approaches can allow protected area plans to give the highest contribution to the reduction of global extinction rates. ...
Setting operational targets for the protection of species is crucial for identifying conservation priorities and for monitoring conservation actions’ effectiveness. The use of quantitative targets for global species conservation has grown in the past ten years as a response to the commitment of reducing extinction rates established by the Convention on Biological Diversity. We reviewed the use of conservation targets in global scale conservation analyses, and found that most of the publications adopted species representation targets, corresponding to an amount of area to be protected. We found no work adequately targeting species’ persistence, i.e. the complement to species extinction risk. Despite the adoption of pragmatic population targets, consisting in a number of individuals to be protected, has been recently proposed for global species conservation, the use of these targets at the species level is not always warranted. Pros and cons of using population persistence targets for species conservation have been discussed, yet the fundamental issue of how to scale these targets from populations to species is still unresolved. We discuss the process of “scaling up” population persistence targets to the species level using habitat distribution models, and test our approach in a case study on the European ground squirrel (Spermophilus citellus). We identified three main steps to be followed: (i) definition of a population target, (ii) characterisation of the species’ populations by means of a habitat suitability model, and (iii) definition of a scaled species target. An up-scaled species target should include multiple conditions reflecting species persistence (number, size, location of the populations to be protected), uniqueness (e.g. evolutionary potential) and representativeness (e.g. presence in different ecosystems). Adopting scaled up species persistence targets within conservation planning approaches can allow protected area plans to give the highest contribution to reducing global species extinction risk.
... Annually updated estimates of tree cover and tree-cover loss are planned (Hansen et al. 2013); already the first 2 updates have been released (Global Forest Change 2000Data Download 2015. Knowing the distribution of threatened species and their associated threats could help target the allocation of resources to areas of particular conservation concern (e.g., hotspots where forest loss has affected large numbers of threatened species or locations where forest conservation would help achieve multiple biodiversity targets [Di Marco et al. 2016]). ...
Conservation actions need to be prioritised, often taking into account species' extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk, but field data to apply the IUCN Red List criteria are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can inform these assessments, and forests are perhaps the best-studied habitat type for use in this approach. Using an open-access 30 m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest-dependent amphibians, birds and mammals worldwide was assessed. Sixteen species have experienced sufficiently high rates of forest loss to be considered at elevated extinction risk under Red List criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number would increase to 23 if data deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information previously to apply the Red List criteria) were included. Some 484 species (855 if data deficient species are included) may be considered at elevated extinction risk under Red List criterion B2, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. This would increase the proportion of species of conservation concern by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds and 24.7% for mammals. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa and the islands of South-East Asia are hotspots for these species. The analyses illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction risk assessment and measurement of progress towards international environmental agreement targets. We highlight areas for which subsequent analyses could be performed on satellite image data in order to improve our knowledge of extinction risk of species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
... The CBD Aichi Target 11 commits governments to expanding their PA coverage (CBD 2011), and this expansion needs to ensure a significant increase in biodiversity protection in order to be effective. In addition, this PA expansion will directly contribute to the achievement of other CBD targets (Di Marco et al. 2015). Consequently, knowing where important sites for biodiversity are located is an essential first step to inform the allocation of conservation resources. ...
World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold-based and complementarity-based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. Here we bring together these approaches by performing a complementarity-based analysis of irreplaceability in Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs; which are sites identified using a threshold-based approach). We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs, and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focussed on three regions having comprehensive IBAs inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, Southern Africa and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with: presence and number of restricted-range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified ('trigger species'). In addition, IBAs were characterised by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results both when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, indicating a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches like IBAs. Our results are important for informing this consultation, and in particular for a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold-based and complementarity-based approaches. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
... Reversing this trend has become the aim of one of the ambitious Aichi biodiversity targets proposed for 2020 [2]: reducing the extinction risk of known threatened species. If this target is achieved, it will in turn have a positive synergistic effect on other targets (such as the protection of forests and the maintenance of carbon stocks [3]). Progress towards meeting this global biodiversity target relies on monitoring the extinction risk of species. ...
Global commitments to halt biodiversity decline mean that it is essential to monitor species' extinction risk. However, the work required to assess extinction risk is intensive. We demonstrate an alternative approach to monitoring extinction risk, based on the response of species to external conditions. Using retrospective International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments, we classify transitions in the extinction risk of 497 mammalian carnivores and ungulates between 1975 and 2013. Species that moved to lower Red List categories, or remained Least Concern, were classified as 'lower risk'; species that stayed in a threatened category, or moved to a higher category of risk, were classified as 'higher risk'. Twenty-four predictor variables were used to predict transitions, including intrinsic traits (species biology) and external conditions (human pressure, distribution state and conservation interventions). The model correctly classified up to 90% of all transitions and revealed complex interactions between variables, such as protected areas (PAs) versus human impact. The most important predictors were: past extinction risk, PA extent, geographical range size, body size, taxonomic family and human impact. Our results suggest that monitoring a targeted set of metrics would efficiently identify species facing a higher risk, and could guide the allocation of resources between monitoring species' extinction risk and monitoring external conditions.
© 2015 The Author(s).
Increasing human pressures are driving a global loss of biodiversity and Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP). Here, we estimated how preserving regions of high biodiversity value could reduce the risk of diminishing the provision of NCP. We analysed the impact of four different scenarios of climate change on the regulation of air quality (NCP3), climate (NCP4) and freshwater quantity (NCP6). For each indicator, we evaluated whether risk from environmental change is higher or lower within high biodiversity value regions, compared to control areas. We find higher present and future NCP levels within biodiversity regions, for all indicators. Moreover, air quality and climate regulation indicators will have higher values within biodiversity regions than outside, especially under higher emission scenarios. Understanding the spatial relationship between NCP and biodiversity, and their potential conservation synergies, is essential for sustaining human well-being and securing Earth’s life support systems. Identifying the relative contribution of high biodiversity areas to NCP provision reveals potential synergies between multiple SDGs are substantial.
Extensive ecosystem restoration is increasingly seen as being central to conserving biodiversity1 and stabilizing the climate of the Earth2. Although ambitious national and global targets have been set, global priority areas that account for spatial variation in benefits and costs have yet to be identified. Here we develop and apply a multicriteria optimization approach that identifies priority areas for restoration across all terrestrial biomes, and estimates their benefits and costs. We find that restoring 15% of converted lands in priority areas could avoid 60% of expected extinctions while sequestering 299 gigatonnes of CO2—30% of the total CO2 increase in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. The inclusion of several biomes is key to achieving multiple benefits. Cost effectiveness can increase up to 13-fold when spatial allocation is optimized using our multicriteria approach, which highlights the importance of spatial planning. Our results confirm the vast potential contributions of restoration to addressing global challenges, while underscoring the necessity of pursuing these goals synergistically.
Humans are exerting unparalleled pressures on terrestrial vertebrates through
overexploitation and development. The patterns of human destruction on the natural
environment are especially prevalent within carnivore distributions because they are
subject to not only habitat fragmentation and loss, but they are also perceived as a threat
to human societies leading to direct conflict. Although the perceived negative impacts of
predators and scavengers dominate policy and individual action towards carnivores, there
is a growing body of literature pointing to the potential benefits that predators and
scavengers provide within shared landscapes. The overall aim of this thesis is to
address key gaps in our knowledge on the exposure and contribution of predators and
scavengers to humans and how this information can be used to enhance conservation
initiatives.
Human pressures cause species extinction. These pressures range from over-hunting and
urbanization to other forms of habitat loss such as agricultural development. While human pressures and their threatening processes have been increasingly documented across a range of species and ecosystems, we do not know the extent of intense cumulative human pressures within species’ geographic ranges globally. In Chapter 2, I aim to quantify the exposure of terrestrial vertebrates to intense human pressure, including carnivores. I use the most up-to-date spatial dataset on cumulative human pressure, which takes into account eight pressures known to cause species decline. I find that 85% of the terrestrial vertebrates assessed have more than half of their range exposed to these cumulative pressures, with carnivores having similar exposure. Specifically, carnivores have on average 75% of their ranges overlapping with intense human pressures. This work provides a useful starting point for assessing species at risk of decline, especially for species with limited information on threats.
Carnivore declines impact ecosystem stability that can result in negative impacts on
human well-being. In Chapter 3, I aim to provide the first review of the benefits provided
by predators and scavengers in shared landscapes with humans. I find that predators and
scavengers have been shown to reduce zoonotic disease risk, increase agricultural output, and limit species known to cause injury and death to humans. Through the review process, I found considerable gaps in knowledge regarding the potential benefits of predators and scavengers in shared landscapes, and I discuss future avenues of research, its caveats, and opportunities.
An important knowledge gap identified during the review was the ecological and human
well-being implications of losing apex scavengers. Although there is a great deal of
information about the ecological repercussions of losing apex predators, we know
relatively little about the role of apex scavengers at regulating lower trophic levels and how this can impact ecosystem health and human well-being. In Chapter 4, I describe the
mesoscavenger release hypothesis, the competitive release of mesoscavengers in the
absence of apex scavengers. This work sets the foundation for future studies investigating the consequences of apex scavenger decline on ecosystems and human health and provides a springboard for conservation action on imperilled apex scavengers.
Another key question asked during the review was the potential role of large carnivores at
benefiting humans. Chapters 5-7 focus on addressing this gap. Chapter 5 provides a
case study of one of the most widespread large carnivores, leopards (Panthera pardus), at
reducing bites and rabies risk from feral dogs in Mumbai, India. I discuss the implications
of large carnivores at providing similar services around the world, especially where feral
dogs are a considerable human health hazard in peri-urban environments. In Chapter 6 I
quantify the predation value of two large carnivore species on an overabundant invasive
species, wild pigs (Sus scrofa), known to cause substantial damage to agricultural lands.
This chapter offers important information for assessing the benefits of large carnivore
conservation on agricultural productivity while accounting for livestock loss. In Chapter 7 I
assess the global ramifications of expanding wild pig populations, utilizing information on
predicted wild pig densities and data on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage to quantify their relative impacts on SOC vulnerability. I discuss that wild pig control could be promoted through human-induced management and conservation of native predators. These case studies provide a foundation for future work investigating links between natural predation and human well-being through mitigating health hazards and increasing agricultural productivity in shared landscapes. These studies will also deliver conservation practitioners additional information on the consequences of large carnivore recovery.
This thesis highlights the state of carnivores in shared landscapes with humans and the
potential crucial services they provide. I address key gaps in our knowledge on the
exposure and contribution of predators and scavengers to humans and how this
information can be used to enhance conservation initiatives
Progress towards the Aichi Targets adopted through the Convention on Biological Diversity has been measured globally via indicators linked to elements of targets (the 20 targets consist of 54 elements), and nationally based on reporting by parties to the convention in the 5th (2010–2014) and 6th (2014–2018) National Reports. Here we used selected indicators that are readily available for each country to score national level progress (‘moving towards the target’, ‘little or no progress’, or ‘moving away from target’) for 11 elements of eight Aichi Targets (1, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 19, 20). Across the selected indicators, elements, and countries for which data were available, in 24.2% of cases countries were moving towards the elements, for 22.3% they were moving away, and for 53.5% there was little or no progress. This overall level of progress is similar to progress to targets as reported in the 5th and 6th National Reports. National progress to three of the 11 elements was positively correlated with progress to targets reported in the 5th National Reports, while progress to none of the elements was correlated with progress reported in the 6th National Reports. Progress to many of the elements considered was positively correlated with better governance, and to a lesser extent GDP per capita, population density and urbanisation. We suggest that post-2020 biodiversity targets should be designed taking greater account of their measurability, and will require improved biodiversity monitoring, both of which would facilitate more effective assessment of progress and enable more insightful policy responses.
Most of the world's nations adopted the 20 Aichi global biodiversity targets to be met by 2020, including the protection of at least 10% of their coastal and marine areas (Target 11) and the avoidance of extinction of threatened species (Target 12). However, reconciling these biodiversity targets with socio‐economic demands remains a great dilemma for implementing conservation policies. In this paper, Aichi Targets 11 and 12 were simultaneously addressed using Brazil's exclusive economic zone as an example. Priority areas for expanding the current system of marine protected areas within the country's eight marine ecoregions were identified with data on threatened vertebrates under different scenarios. Additionally, the potential effects of major socio‐economic activities (small‑ and large‐scale fishing, seabed mining, and oil and gas exploration) on the representation of conservation features in proposed marine protected areas were explored. Areas selected for expanding marine protected areas solely based on biodiversity data were different (spatial overlap from 62% to 93%) from areas prioritized when socio‐economic features were incorporated into the analysis. The addition of socio‐economic data in the prioritization process substantially decreased opportunity costs and potential conservation conflicts, at the cost of reducing significantly (up to 31%) the coverage of conservation features. Large‑ and small‐scale fisheries act in most of the exclusive economic zone and are the major constraints for protecting high‐priority areas. Nevertheless, there is some spatial mismatch between areas of special relevance for conservation and socio‐economic activities, suggesting an opportunity for reconciling the achievement of biodiversity targets and development goals within the intricate Brazilian seascape by 2020 and beyond.
A criação de áreas protegidas é um dos mecanismos encontrados para garantir a proteção da biodiversidade frente às constantes e crescentes ameaças. Neste estudo buscou-se analisar conceitos da Biologia da Conservação e sua aplicação na criação e ampliação do Parque Nacional do Descobrimento/BA, a partir da coleta de dados primários e secundários sobre a UC bem como a utilização de ferramentas de geoprocessamento. A criação da UC foi guiada basicamente pela oportunidade de aquisição da área, sendo que grandes oportunidades para a conservação da biodiversidade na região foram desconsideradas no processo. Discute-se também o grau de confiabilidade dos instrumentos de planejamento da UC bem como situações envolvendo a inserção da mesma na Zona de Amortecimento.
The design, selection and use of indicators for large-scale conservation policy has been of great interest since the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) committed to a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. Following the introduction of the 2020 Aichi Targets, there was an increase, not only in demand for numbers of indicators, but the requirements that they are expected to meet. The complexities of social-ecological systems and the inevitable trade-offs that exist within them mean understanding and validating indicator responses are critical if they are to play a role in active management.
In this thesis, I look critically at uncertainties around how indicators are constructed and used, through the lens of marine science and conservation. I start the thesis by exploring the different types of uncertainty found when using composite indicators and from reviewing the literature, suggest possible methods of dealing with them. I find that structural uncertainties of indicators are rarely acknowledged. As a case study of application of composite indicators, I developed an Ocean Health Index assessment for the Arctic Ocean, demonstrating how a structured framework can be of great use for taking a data-driven approach to assessing social-ecological systems in large, data-poor regions. I show the Arctic is sustainably delivering a range of benefits to people, but with room for improvement in all areas, particularly tourism, fisheries, and protected places. Successful management of biological resources and short-term positive impacts on biodiversity in response to climate change underlie these high goal scores.
I then explore how two biodiversity indicators (Living Planet Index and Norway Nature Index) can be better interpreted and validated using an end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, in the Nordic and Barents Seas. By simulating different fishing scenarios, I evaluated the extent to which the model-based testing approach gave insights into indicator behaviour; while the LPI is able to distinguish clearly between three different fishing scenarios, the NNI is only able to distinguish the most heavily fished scenario from the other two. I discuss how this approach is useful for indicator testing and to advance integration of large-scale biodiversity indicators with goal-setting and decision making at the system scale. I then use the model to explore how different indicators of biodiversity from across fisheries and conservation respond to management interventions in Norway in the face of climate change. I find that despite having the same intentions, fisheries and conservation biodiversity indicators respond differently to each other under the same scenarios, due to how they are constructed. This means that without proper validation, indicators can potentially give different pictures of the same system to different interest groups, meaning greater integration and understanding of conservation and fisheries management objectives is necessary.
Finally, I reflect on the findings of my thesis in light of the CBD Post-2020 Framework. I discuss several core areas where the process could be revised to improve biodiversity outcomes. This includes formulating a robust theory of change to give the framework a clear conceptual basis and explicitly articulate the causal assumptions about the relationship between actions and outcomes. I do not focus on what targets should look like, but instead seek proactive, solutions-oriented approaches that can help ‘bend the curve’ for biodiversity.
This thesis highlights the uncertainties and challenges associated with large-scale indicator design and use and demonstrates how countries can take steps to reduce these. Greater consideration of the systems within which indicators are based can lead to better validation and ultimately better decision making.
Brazil is a continental-sized megadiverse country with high rates of habitat loss and degradation. Part of the Brazilian biodiversity - including endemic species - is recognized as threatened. By following the IUCN standards, we review the classification of all the 1172 endangered species in Brazil, analyzing differences among categories and groups. Based on a subsample of all 464 terrestrial vertebrates we identified 1036 records of threats affecting them. Criterion B was the most used (56% overall; 70% for CR species; 75% for EN), mainly related to reductions in their habitat area, extent and/or quality due to deforestation. Data on population declines (criterion A), number of reproductive individuals (criterion C), and population sizes (criterion D) are available for only a small fraction of the Brazilian fauna. Criterion E (probability of extinction in the wild) was used for only one species. Birds and mammals had the highest diversity of used criteria, while marine fish the lowest (90% related to declining populations). Two out of three of the 464 vertebrate species analyzed were negatively impacted by agribusiness. Other major threats are hunting, urban sprawl, rural settlements, and the construction of hydroelectric dams. Birds and mammals experience more co-occurrence of threats. Some threats are clearly underestimated in Brazil: climate change was indicated for only 2% species analyzed, but included no birds or amphibians. The main threats identified are linked to the patterns of economic development in Brazil and the current political and economic context points to a worrisome conservation scenario in the near future.
Setting operational conservation objectives is a major challenge for effective biodiversity conservation worldwide. To analyse forest conservation objectives in Germany in a transparent manner and to achieve a consistent and consensual framework, we systematically classified conservation objectives suggested in concepts by different stakeholders. We analysed 79 biodiversity and forest conservation concepts of different stakeholder groups at various scales and applied textual content analysis and Dirichlet regression to reach a high degree of transferability and applicability. Our analysis revealed a broad consensus concerning forest conservation across stakeholders and scales, albeit with slight differences in focus, but we detected a scale-related mismatch. A wide array of conservation objectives covered social, biotic and abiotic natural resources. Conservation of species, ecosystems and structural elements in forests were found to be of primary importance across stakeholders and scale levels. Shortcomings in the conservation concepts were found in addressing genetic diversity, abiotic resources and socio-cultural objectives. Our results show that problems in forest conservation may be rooted in trade-offs between aims, targeting mismatch across scale levels and insufficient implementation of objectives.
Chapter 6 on "Options for governance and decision-making across scales and sectors" is part of the regional assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services for the Americas of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.
The United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development calls for urgent actions to reduce global biodiversity loss. Here, we synthesize >44,000 articles published in the past decade to assess the research focus on global drivers of loss. Relative research efforts on different drivers are not well aligned with their assessed impact, and multiple driver interactions are hardly considered. Research on drivers of biodiversity loss needs urgent realignment to match predicted severity and inform policy goals.
The Convention on Biological Diversity proposed the Aichi Biodiversity Targets to improve conservation policies and to balance economic development, social welfare, and the maintenance of biodiversity/ecosystem services. Brazil is a signatory of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets and is the most diverse country in terms of freshwater fish, but its national policies have supported the development of unsustainable commercial and ornamental aquaculture, which has led to serious disturbances to inland ecosystems and natural resources. We analyzed the development of Brazilian aquaculture to show how current aquaculture expansion conflicts with all 20 Aichi Targets. This case suggests that Brazil and many other megadiverse developing countries will not meet international conservation targets, stressing the need for new strategies, such as the environmental management system, to improve biodiversity conservation.
Protected areas, although often terrestrially focused and less frequently designed to protect freshwater resources, can be extremely important for conserving freshwater biodiversity and supporting human water security necessary for people to survive and thrive. This study measured the quantity of water that is being provided by protected areas to areas downstream, and how threatened protected areas are in terms of their water provision. Building on a Freshwater Provision Index, the numbers of people who live downstream from these protected areas around the world were then assessed. The same process was applied to areas where there are no protected areas. Protected areas deliver 20% of the global total of approximately 40 000 km3 year−1 of continental runoff. More than one-quarter of water provisions supplied by the world's protected areas are exposed to low levels of threat and less than 10% are exposed to high levels of threat; this is compared with higher levels of threat for provisions from non-protected areas, where nearly one quarter of the provisions are exposed to high threat and only 10% are exposed to low threat. Nearly two-thirds of the global population is living downstream of the world's protected areas as potential users of freshwater provisions supplied by these areas. Despite the overall large volume of low-threat water supplied by protected areas, globally 80% of the downstream human community users receive water from upstream protected areas under high threat, and no continent has less than 59% of its downstream users receiving water from upstream protected areas under high threat. Globally, increased attention to reduce the threats to fresh water in areas under protection, as well as designation and management of additional areas, are needed to safeguard freshwater flows, and support biodiversity conservation and the provision of freshwater ecosystem services. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The Strategic Plan for Biodiversity (2011–2020), adopted at the 10th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, sets 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets to be met by 2020 to address biodiversity loss and ensure its sustainable and equitable use. Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 describes what an improved conservation network would look like for marine, terrestrial and inland water areas, including freshwater ecosystems. To date, there is no comprehensive assessment of what needs to be achieved to meet Target 11 for freshwater biodiversity. Reports on implementation often fail to consider explicitly freshwater ecosystem processes and habitats, the pressures upon them, and therefore the full range of requirements and actions needed to sustain them. Here the current progress and key gaps for meeting Aichi Target 11 are assessed by exploring the implications of each of its clauses for freshwater biodiversity. Concerted action on Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 for freshwater biodiversity by 2020 is required in a number of areas: a robust baseline is needed for each of the clauses described here at national and global scales; designation of new protected areas or expansion of existing protected areas to cover known areas of importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, and a representative sample of biodiversity; use of Other Effective Area-Based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in places where designating a protected area is not appropriate; and promoting and implementing better management strategies for fresh water in protected areas that consider its inherent connectivity, contextual vulnerability, and required human and technical capacity. Considering the specific requirements of freshwater systems through Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 has long-term value to the Sustainable Development Goals discussions and global conservation policy agenda into the coming decades. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
There are concerns that Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) may fail to deliver potential biodiversity cobenefits if it is focused on high carbon areas. We explored the spatial overlaps between carbon stocks, biodiversity, projected deforestation threats, and the location of REDD+ projects in Indonesia, a tropical country at the forefront of REDD+ development. For biodiversity, we assembled data on the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates (ranges of amphibians, mammals, birds, reptiles) and plants (species distribution models for 8 families). We then investigated congruence between different measures of biodiversity richness and carbon stocks at the national and subnational scales. Finally, we mapped active REDD+ projects and investigated the carbon density and potential biodiversity richness and modeled deforestation pressures within these forests relative to protected areas and unprotected forests. There was little internal overlap among the different hotspots (richest 10% of cells) of species richness. There was also no consistent spatial congruence between carbon stocks and the biodiversity measures: a weak negative correlation at the national scale masked highly variable and nonlinear relationships island by island. Current REDD+ projects were preferentially located in areas with higher total species richness and threatened species richness but lower carbon densities than protected areas and unprotected forests. Although a quarter of the total area of these REDD+ projects is under relatively high deforestation pressure, the majority of the REDD+ area is not. In Indonesia at least, first-generation REDD+ projects are located where they are likely to deliver biodiversity benefits. However, if REDD+ is to deliver additional gains for climate and biodiversity, projects will need to focus on forests with the highest threat to deforestation, which will have cost implications for future REDD+ implementation.
Governments have committed to conserving ≥17% of terrestrial and ≥10% of marine environments globally, especially “areas of particular importance for biodiversity” through “ecologically representative” Protected Area (PA) systems or other “area-based conservation measures,” while individual countries have committed to conserve 3–50% of their land area. We estimate that PAs currently cover 14.6% of terrestrial and 2.8% of marine extent, but 59–68% of ecoregions, 77–78% of important sites for biodiversity, and 57% of 25,380 species have inadequate coverage. The existing 19.7 million km2 terrestrial PA network needs only 3.3 million km2 to be added to achieve 17% terrestrial coverage. However, it would require nearly doubling to achieve, cost-efficiently, coverage targets for all countries, ecoregions, important sites, and species. Poorer countries have the largest relative shortfalls. Such extensive and rapid expansion of formal PAs is unlikely to be achievable. Greater focus is therefore needed on alternative approaches, including community- and privately managed sites and other effective area-based conservation measures.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Protected areas are one of the main tools for halting the continuing global biodiversity crisis caused by habitat loss, fragmentation and other anthropogenic pressures. According to the Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity, the protected area network should be expanded to at least 17% of the terrestrial world by 2020 (http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets). To maximize conservation outcomes, it is crucial to identify the best expansion areas. Here we show that there is a very high potential to increase protection of ecoregions and vertebrate species by expanding the protected area network, but also identify considerable risk of ineffective outcomes due to land-use change and uncoordinated actions between countries. We use distribution data for 24,757 terrestrial vertebrates assessed under the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 'red list of threatened species', and terrestrial ecoregions (827), modified by land-use models for the present and 2040, and introduce techniques for global and balanced spatial conservation prioritization. First, we show that with a coordinated global protected area network expansion to 17% of terrestrial land, average protection of species ranges and ecoregions could triple. Second, if projected land-use change by 2040 (ref. 11) takes place, it becomes infeasible to reach the currently possible protection levels, and over 1,000 threatened species would lose more than 50% of their present effective ranges worldwide. Third, we demonstrate a major efficiency gap between national and global conservation priorities. Strong evidence is shown that further biodiversity loss is unavoidable unless international action is quickly taken to balance land-use and biodiversity conservation. The approach used here can serve as a framework for repeatable and quantitative assessment of efficiency, gaps and expansion of the global protected area network globally, regionally and nationally, considering current and projected land-use pressures.
In 2010, the parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 with the mission of halting biodiversity loss and enhance the benefits it provides to people. The 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets (Aichi Targets), which are included in the Strategic Plan, are organized under five Strategic Goals, and provide coherent guidance on how to achieve it. Halfway through the Strategic Plan, it is time to prioritize actions in order to achieve the best possible outcomes for the Aichi Targets in 2020. Actions to achieve one target may influence other targets (downstream interactions); in turn a target may be influenced by actions taken to attain other targets (upstream interactions). We explore the interactions among targets and the time-lags between implemented measures and desired outcomes to develop a framework that can reduce the overall burden associated with the implementation of the Strategic Plan. We identified the targets addressing the underlying drivers of biodiversity loss and the targets aimed at enhancing the implementation of the Strategic Plan as having the highest level of downstream interactions. Targets aimed at improving the status of biodiversity and safeguarding ecosystems followed by targets aimed at reducing the direct pressures on biodiversity and enhancing the benefits to all from biodiversity and ecosystem services, were identified as having the highest levels of upstream interactions. Perhaps one of the most challenging aspects of the Strategic Plan is the need to balance actions for its long-term sustainability with the need for urgent actions to halt biodiversity loss.
The IUCN World Parks Congress is a once in a decade event that has traditionally been a major forum for advancing global protected area policy and practice. The Congress this November in Sydney Australia will be run along eight streams; addressing biodiversity, climate change, health, ecosystem services, development, governance, indigenous peoples issues and youth; cross-cutting themes address marine issues, capacity building, World Heritage and a New Social Compact. In the following extended editorial, the organisers of the various streams lay out their aims and hopes for the 2014 Congress.
If the growing needs of humans are to be met, food production must increase; however, increasing food production will further
compromise biodiversity. Can this seemingly irreconcilable conflict be mitigated? The solutions proposed so far include reducing
food waste and closing yield gaps. Here, we investigate an alternative approach to reducing the impact of agricultural expansion
on biodiversity without compromising food production by combining two strategies: taking agricultural production into consideration
to solve the biodiversity crisis and promoting the definition of protected areas on the basis of a globalized blueprint. We
found that combining these strategies could result in a 78% reduction in the agricultural opportunity costs incurred in the
implementation of protected areas. Furthermore, a 30% increase in biodiversity protection could be achieved. We show that
the movement toward global governance of natural resources would lead to reduced conflict between the needs of food production
and biodiversity conservation.
The rate of biodiversity loss is not slowing despite global commitments, and the depletion of animal species can reduce the stability of ecological communities. Despite this continued loss, some substantial progress in reversing defaunation is being achieved
through the intentional movement of animals to restore populations. We review the full spectrum of conservation translocations, from reinforcement and reintroduction to controversial conservation introductions that seek to restore populations outside their indigenous range or to introduce ecological replacements for extinct forms. We place the popular, but misunderstood, concept of rewilding within this framework and consider the future role of new technical developments such as de-extinction.
Governments have agreed to expand the global protected area network from 13% to 17% of the world's land surface by 2020 (Aichi target 11) and to prevent the further loss of known threatened species (Aichi target 12). These targets are interdependent, as protected areas can stem biodiversity loss when strategically located and effectively managed. However, the global protected area estate is currently biased toward locations that are cheap to protect and away from important areas for biodiversity. Here we use data on the distribution of protected areas and threatened terrestrial birds, mammals, and amphibians to assess current and possible future coverage of these species under the convention. We discover that 17% of the 4,118 threatened vertebrates are not found in a single protected area and that fully 85% are not adequately covered (i.e., to a level consistent with their likely persistence). Using systematic conservation planning, we show that expanding protected areas to reach 17% coverage by protecting the cheapest land, even if ecoregionally representative, would increase the number of threatened vertebrates covered by only 6%. However, the nonlinear relationship between the cost of acquiring land and species coverage means that fivefold more threatened vertebrates could be adequately covered for only 1.5 times the cost of the cheapest solution, if cost efficiency and threatened vertebrates are both incorporated into protected area decision making. These results are robust to known errors in the vertebrate range maps. The Convention on Biological Diversity targets may stimulate major expansion of the global protected area estate. If this expansion is to secure a future for imperiled species, new protected areas must be sited more strategically than is presently the case.
Forests in Flux
Forests worldwide are in a state of flux, with accelerating losses in some regions and gains in others. Hansen et al. (p. 850 ) examined global Landsat data at a 30-meter spatial resolution to characterize forest extent, loss, and gain from 2000 to 2012. Globally, 2.3 million square kilometers of forest were lost during the 12-year study period and 0.8 million square kilometers of new forest were gained. The tropics exhibited both the greatest losses and the greatest gains (through regrowth and plantation), with losses outstripping gains.
Identifying which areas capture how many species is the first question in conservation planning. The Convention on Biological
Diversity (CBD) aspires to formal protection of at least 17% of the terrestrial world and, through the Global Strategy for
Plant Conservation, 60% of plant species. Are these targets of protecting area and species compatible? We show that 67% of
plant species live entirely within regions that comprise 17% of the land surface. Moreover, these regions include most terrestrial
vertebrates with small geographical ranges. However, the connections between the CBD targets of protecting area and species
are complex. Achieving both targets will be difficult because regions with the most plant species have only slightly more
land protected than do those with fewer.
Identifying which areas capture how many species is the first question
in conservation planning. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
aspires to formal protection of at least 17% of the terrestrial world
and, through the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation, 60% of plant
species. Are these targets of protecting area and species compatible? We
show that 67% of plant species live entirely within regions that
comprise 17% of the land surface. Moreover, these regions include most
terrestrial vertebrates with small geographical ranges. However, the
connections between the CBD targets of protecting area and species are
complex. Achieving both targets will be difficult because regions with
the most plant species have only slightly more land protected than do
those with fewer.
The realization of conservation goals requires strategies for managing
whole landscapes including areas allocated to both production and protection.
Reserves alone are not adequate for nature conservation but they are the cornerstone
on which regional strategies are built. Reserves have two main roles. They
should sample or represent the biodiversity of each region and they should
separate this biodiversity from processes that threaten its persistence. Existing
reserve systems throughout the world contain a biased sample of biodiversity,
usually that of remote places and other areas that are unsuitable for commercial
activities. A more systematic approach to locating and designing reserves
has been evolving and this approach will need to be implemented if a large
proportion of today's biodiversity is to exist in a future of increasing numbers
of people and their demands on natural resources.
Detailed large-scale information on mammal distribution has often been lacking, hindering conservation efforts. We used the information from the 2009 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as a baseline for developing habitat suitability models for 5027 out of 5330 known terrestrial mammal species, based on their habitat relationships. We focused on the following environmental variables: land cover, elevation and hydrological features. Models were developed at 300 m resolution and limited to within species' known geographical ranges. A subset of the models was validated using points of known species occurrence. We conducted a global, fine-scale analysis of patterns of species richness. The richness of mammal species estimated by the overlap of their suitable habitat is on average one-third less than that estimated by the overlap of their geographical ranges. The highest absolute difference is found in tropical and subtropical regions in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia that are not covered by dense forest. The proportion of suitable habitat within mammal geographical ranges correlates with the IUCN Red List category to which they have been assigned, decreasing monotonically from Least Concern to Endangered. These results demonstrate the importance of fine-resolution distribution data for the development of global conservation strategies for mammals.
One of the major threats facing protected areas (PAs) is land-use change and habitat loss. We assessed the impact of land-use change on PAs. The majority of parks have been effective at protecting the ecosystems within their borders, even in areas with significant land-use pressures. More in particular, the capacity of PAs to slow down habitat degradation and to favour habitat restoration is clearly related to their size, with smaller areas that on average follow the dominant land-use change pattern into which they are embedded. Our results suggest that small parks are not going to be viable in the long term if they are considered as islands surrounded by a 'human-dominated ocean'. However, small PAs are, in many cases, the only option available, implying that we need to devote much more attention to the non-protected matrix in which PAs must survive.
Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) policies, projects, and interventions are among the most prominent of recent attempts to mitigate climate change. Because REDD+ projects focus on forests, they simultaneously affect socioeconomic and ecological outcomes at local, subnational, national, regional, and global levels. This review assesses the promise of REDD+ for the continued ability of forests to provide multiple benefits to human societies at multiple scales. We survey REDD+ efforts at different levels, examining them through an actor-oriented approach. The article highlights the criticality of collaborative action to enhance desired outcomes of REDD+ efforts. In summarizing major REDD+ future trends, the paper emphasizes the need to learn from past forestry, agricultural, biodiversity, and development policies, and for adaptive policy making.
Certification schemes have emerged in recent years to become a significant and innovative venue for standard setting and governance in the environmental realm. This review examines these schemes in the forest sector where, arguably, their development is among the most advanced of the sustainability labeling initiatives. Beginning with the origins, history, and features of schemes, the review synthesizes and assesses what we know about the direct effects and broader consequences of forest certification. Bearing in mind underlying factors affecting producers' decisions to certify, direct effects are examined by describing the uptake of schemes, the improvements to management of audited forests, and the ameliorative potential of certification for landscape-level concerns such as deforestation and forest protection. In assessing broader consequences, we look beyond the instrument itself to detail positive and negative unintended consequences, spillover effects, and longer-term and slow-moving effects that flow from the emergence of the certification innovation.
Limited resources are available to address the world's growing environmental problems, requiring conservationists to identify priority sites for action. Using new distribution maps for all of the world's forest-dependent birds (60.6% of all bird species), we quantify the contribution of remaining forest to conserving global avian biodiversity. For each of the world's partly or wholly forested 5-km cells, we estimated an impact score of its contribution to the distribution of all the forest bird species estimated to occur within it, and so is proportional to the impact on the conservation status of the world's forest-dependent birds were the forest it contains lost. The distribution of scores was highly skewed, a very small proportion of cells having scores several orders of magnitude above the global mean. Ecoregions containing the highest values of this score included relatively species-poor islands such as Hawaii and Palau, the relatively species-rich islands of Indonesia and the Philippines, and the megadiverse Atlantic Forests and northern Andes of South America. Ecoregions with high impact scores and high deforestation rates (2000-2005) included montane forests in Cameroon and the Eastern Arc of Tanzania, although deforestation data were not available for all ecoregions. Ecoregions with high impact scores, high rates of recent deforestation and low coverage by the protected area network included Indonesia's Seram rain forests and the moist forests of Trinidad and Tobago. Key sites in these ecoregions represent some of the most urgent priorities for expansion of the global protected areas network to meet Convention on Biological Diversity targets to increase the proportion of land formally protected to 17% by 2020. Areas with high impact scores, rapid deforestation, low protection and high carbon storage values may represent significant opportunities for both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation, for example through Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) initiatives.
The diversity of life is one of the most striking aspects of our planet; hence knowing how many species inhabit Earth is among the most fundamental questions in science. Yet the answer to this question remains enigmatic, as efforts to sample the world's biodiversity to date have been limited and thus have precluded direct quantification of global species richness, and because indirect estimates rely on assumptions that have proven highly controversial. Here we show that the higher taxonomic classification of species (i.e., the assignment of species to phylum, class, order, family, and genus) follows a consistent and predictable pattern from which the total number of species in a taxonomic group can be estimated. This approach was validated against well-known taxa, and when applied to all domains of life, it predicts ~8.7 million (± 1.3 million SE) eukaryotic species globally, of which ~2.2 million (± 0.18 million SE) are marine. In spite of 250 years of taxonomic classification and over 1.2 million species already catalogued in a central database, our results suggest that some 86% of existing species on Earth and 91% of species in the ocean still await description. Renewed interest in further exploration and taxonomy is required if this significant gap in our knowledge of life on Earth is to be closed.
Detailed large-scale information on mammal distribution has often been lacking, hindering conservation efforts. We used the information from the 2009 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as a baseline for developing habitat suitability models for 5027 out of 5330 known terrestrial mammal species, based on their habitat relationships. We focused on the following environmental variables: land cover, elevation and hydrological features. Models were developed at 300 m resolution and limited to within species' known geographical ranges. A subset of the models was validated using points of known species occurrence. We conducted a global, fine-scale analysis of patterns of species richness. The richness of mammal species estimated by the overlap of their suitable habitat is on average one-third less than that estimated by the overlap of their geographical ranges. The highest absolute difference is found in tropical and subtropical regions in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia that are not covered by dense forest. The proportion of suitable habitat within mammal geographical ranges correlates with the IUCN Red List category to which they have been assigned, decreasing monotonically from Least Concern to Endangered. These results demonstrate the importance of fine-resolution distribution data for the development of global conservation strategies for mammals.
Using data for 25,780 species categorized on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, we present an assessment of the status of the world's vertebrates. One-fifth of species are classified as Threatened, and we show that this figure is increasing: On average, 52 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians move one category closer to extinction each year. However, this overall pattern conceals the impact of conservation successes, and we show that the rate of deterioration would have been at least one-fifth again as much in the absence of these. Nonetheless, current conservation efforts remain insufficient to offset the main drivers of biodiversity loss in these groups: agricultural expansion, logging, overexploitation, and invasive alien species. Yes Yes
Assessing Biodiversity Declines
Understanding human impact on biodiversity depends on sound quantitative projection. Pereira et al. (p. 1496 , published online 26 October) review quantitative scenarios that have been developed for four main areas of concern: species extinctions, species abundances and community structure, habitat loss and degradation, and shifts in the distribution of species and biomes. Declines in biodiversity are projected for the whole of the 21st century in all scenarios, but with a wide range of variation. Hoffmann et al. (p. 1503 , published online 26 October) draw on the results of five decades' worth of data collection, managed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission. A comprehensive synthesis of the conservation status of the world's vertebrates, based on an analysis of 25,780 species (approximately half of total vertebrate diversity), is presented: Approximately 20% of all vertebrate species are at risk of extinction in the wild, and 11% of threatened birds and 17% of threatened mammals have moved closer to extinction over time. Despite these trends, overall declines would have been significantly worse in the absence of conservation actions.
In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the
rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of
the state of biodiversity (covering species’ population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community
composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity
(including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts)
showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected
areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate
of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.
Endemism and species richness are highly relevant to the global prioritization of conservation efforts in which oceanic islands have remained relatively neglected. When compared to mainland areas, oceanic islands in general are known for their high percentage of endemic species but only moderate levels of species richness, prompting the question of their relative conservation value. Here we quantify geographic patterns of endemism-scaled richness ("endemism richness") of vascular plants across 90 terrestrial biogeographic regions, including islands, worldwide and evaluate their congruence with terrestrial vertebrates. Endemism richness of plants and vertebrates is strongly related, and values on islands exceed those of mainland regions by a factor of 9.5 and 8.1 for plants and vertebrates, respectively. Comparisons of different measures of past and future human impact and land cover change further reveal marked differences between mainland and island regions. While island and mainland regions suffered equally from past habitat loss, we find the human impact index, a measure of current threat, to be significantly higher on islands. Projected land-cover changes for the year 2100 indicate that land-use-driven changes on islands might strongly increase in the future. Given their conservation risks, smaller land areas, and high levels of endemism richness, islands may offer particularly high returns for species conservation efforts and therefore warrant a high priority in global biodiversity conservation in this century.
We assessed the impacts of anthropogenic threats on 93 protected areas in 22 tropical countries to test the hypothesis that
parks are an effective means to protect tropical biodiversity. We found that the majority of parks are successful at stopping
land clearing, and to a lesser degree effective at mitigating logging, hunting, fire, and grazing. Park effectiveness correlates
with basic management activities such as enforcement, boundary demarcation, and direct compensation to local communities,
suggesting that even modest increases in funding would directly increase the ability of parks to protect tropical biodiversity.
Invasive mammals are the greatest threat to island biodiversity and invasive rodents are likely responsible for the greatest number of extinctions and ecosystem changes. Techniques for eradicating rodents from islands were developed over 2 decades ago. Since that time there has been a significant development and application of this conservation tool. We reviewed the literature on invasive rodent eradications to assess its current state and identify actions to make it more effective. Worldwide, 332 successful rodent eradications have been undertaken; we identified 35 failed eradications and 20 campaigns of unknown result. Invasive rodents have been eradicated from 284 islands (47,628 ha). With the exception of two small islands, rodenticides were used in all eradication campaigns. Brodifacoum was used in 71% of campaigns and 91% of the total area treated. The most frequent rodenticide distribution methods (from most to least) are bait stations, hand broadcasting, and aerial broadcasting. Nevertheless, campaigns using aerial broadcast made up 76% of the total area treated. Mortality of native vertebrates due to nontarget poisoning has been documented, but affected species quickly recover to pre-eradication population levels or higher. A variety of methods have been developed to mitigate nontarget impacts, and applied research can further aid in minimizing impacts. Land managers should routinely remove invasive rodents from islands <100 ha that lack vertebrates susceptible to nontarget poisoning. For larger islands and those that require nontarget mitigation, expert consultation and greater planning effort are needed. With the exception of house mice (Mus musculus), island size may no longer be the limiting factor for rodent eradications; rather, social acceptance and funding may be the main challenges. To be successful, large-scale rodent campaigns should be integrated with programs to improve the livelihoods of residents, island biosecurity, and reinvasion response programs.
Resumen: Los mamíferos invasores son la mayor amenaza a la biodiversidad insular, y los roedores invasores son probables responsables de la mayoría de las extinciones y cambios en los ecosistemas. Las técnicas para la erradicación de roedores de las islas fueron desarrolladas hace 2 décadas. Desde entonces ha habido un desarrollo y aplicación significativa de esta herramienta de conservación. Revisamos la literatura sobre erradicaciones de roedores invasores para evaluar su estado actual e identificar acciones para hacerlo más efectivo. Mundialmente, se han efectuado 332 erradicaciones de roedores exitosas, identificamos 35 erradicaciones fracasadas y 20 campañas con resultados desconocidos. Los roedores Invasivos ha sido erradicados de 284 islas (47,628 ha). Con la excepción de dos islas pequeñas, se utilizaron rodenticidas en todas las erradicaciones. Se utilizó Brodifacoum en 71% de las campañas y en 91% de la superficie tratada. Los métodos más frecuentes de distribución de rodenticida (de más a menos) son estaciones de cebo, aplicación manual y aplicación aérea. Sin embargo, las campañas de aplicación aérea abarcaron 76% de la superficie tratada. Se ha documentado la mortalidad de vertebrados nativos debido a envenenamiento accidental, pero las especies afectadas recuperan, o superan, rápidamente los niveles poblacionales previos a la erradicación. Se ha desarrollado una variedad de métodos para mitigar los impactos no deseados, y la investigación aplicada puede ayudar a minimizar los impactos aun más. Los gestores de recursos deben remover rutinariamente a roedores invasores de islas <100 ha que carezcan de vertebrados susceptibles de envenenamiento no deseado. Para islas más extensas y para las que requieren de mitigación de envenenamientos no deseados, se requiere de la consulta de expertos y de mayores esfuerzos de planificación. Con la excepción de Mus musculus, es posible que el tamaño de la isla ya no sea el factor limitante para la erradicación de roedores, más bien, la aceptación social y el financiamiento pueden ser los retos principales. Para ser exitosas, las campañas a gran escala deben estar integradas por programas para mejorar las condiciones de vida de los residentes, de bioseguridad insular y de respuesta a reinvasiones.
Habitat loss and degradation are the factors threatening the largest number of amphibian species. However, quantitative measures of habitat availability only exist for a small subset of them. We evaluated the relationships between habitat availability, extinction risk and drivers of threat for the world's amphibians. We developed deductive habitat suitability models to estimate the extent of suitable habitat and the proportion of suitable habitat (PSH) inside the geographic range of each species, covering species and areas for which little or no high-resolution distribution data are available.
Geographic range size is the manifestation of complex interactions between intrinsic species traits and extrinsic environmental conditions. It is also a fundamental ecological attribute of species and a key extinction risk correlate. Past research has primarily focused on the role of biological and environmental predictors of range size, but macroecological patterns can also be distorted by human activities. Here we analyse the role of extrinsic (biogeography, habitat state, climate, human pressure) and intrinsic (biology) variables in predicting range size of the world's terrestrial mammals. In particular, our aim is to compare the predictive ability of human pressure vs species biology. We evaluated the ability of 19 intrinsic and extrinsic variables in predicting range size for 4,867 terrestrial mammals. We repeated the analyses after excluding restricted-range species and performed separate analyses for species in different biogeographic realms and taxonomic groups. Our model had high predictive ability, and showed that climatic variables and human pressures are the most influential predictors of range size. Interestingly, human pressures predict current geographic range size better than biological traits. These findings were confirmed when repeating the analyses on large-ranged species, individual biogeographic regions and individual taxonomic groups. Climatic and human impacts have determined the extinction of mammal species in the past, and are the main factors shaping the present distribution of mammals. These factors also affect other vertebrate groups globally, and their influence on range size may be similar as well. Measuring climatic and human variables can allow to obtain approximate range size estimations for data deficient and newly discovered species (e.g. hundreds of mammal species worldwide). Our results support the need for a more careful consideration of the role of climate change and human impact - as opposed to species biological characteristics - in shaping species distribution ranges.