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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Wiley
Journal of Environmental Quality
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... Climate change is now a significant concern in both developing and developed nations [15][16][17][18] and agriculture is anticipated to be the sector most affected by it since weather is a crucial component of agricultural productivity [19][20][21]. Global land area and agricultural productivity are impacted by climate change [22][23][24] and inevitably alter the price levels [25,26] in several ways that worsen the nation's food security, including variations in the country's yearly rainfall, average temperature, frequency of heat waves, etc. [27,28]. ...
... They improve land fertility and plant growth [50] as a result, fertilizers are expected to have a positive impact on agricultural productivity. This increase in agricultural production has been accomplished through a variety of means, including technological advancements, increased fertilizer [20]. Here, K represents number of parameters. ...
Article
Agriculture sector is major sufferer of climate change both at a global level as well as at India level. Cereals account for about 92 % of India's total food grain output and climate change has a significant influence on the production of cereals. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term and short-term effects of climatic and non-climatic variables, specifically temperature, precipitation, cereal area, total cropped area, fertilizer consumption, and pesticide consumption, on cereal production in India. The study included annual time series data that covered the period from 1960 to 2018, covering a period of 58 years. Various econometric techniques were employed to examine these relationships. The validity of a long-term and short-term relationship among the relevant variables included in the study was validated by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and the Johansen cointegration test. The ARDL model's estimation outcomes reveals that input factors such as cereal area became a key factor in rising cereal production, as evidenced by its positive coefficient. Similarly, fertilizer consumption and precipitation had positive effects on production in the long run whereas total cropped area and minimum temperature has little influence over the results of production both in short run as well as long run. Furthermore, the long-term findings were also supported using econometric tools like Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS). These methods confirmed that variations in cereal production in India were significantly influenced by both climatic factors and agricultural inputs and factors. The study emphasizes the urgency for policymakers to prioritize proactive measures aimed at reducing the adverse impacts of climate change on cereal production in India. This necessitates a comprehensive strategy integrating sustainable practices, technological innovations, and robust policy frameworks to ensure resilient agricultural sectors and sustainable food production.
... (hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs) [2] ,报告中强调大气中 CO2、CH4 和 CO 等温室气体浓度的上升是全球 暖化现象的主要原因 [3] ,而 CO2 以外的其他温室气体在大气中的浓度比 CO2 小得多,CO2 是导致温室 效应的最主要气体 [4] ,大气中 CO2 浓度的增加被认为和全球变暖的关系最为密切。 大气中 CO2 的浓度从 1750 年工业时代开始的约 277 ppm 增加到 2020 年的约 412 ppm,增长幅度 巨大。世界气象组织(World Meteorological Organization, WMO)发布的《2021 年全球气候状况》中 指出 [5] ,只有发明出从大气中清除碳的方法,才能抑制海平面上升、海洋变暖和酸化。碳捕集利用与 封存(Carbon capture, utilization and storage, CCUS)技术是碳减排的关键技术,而直接空气捕集 (direct air capture, DAC)作为一种负碳排放技术(通过增加自然碳汇或利用化工方案从大气中去除 CO2 的技术 [6] )和实现"双碳"目标的托底技术,愈发受到学术界和产业界关注。DAC 技术专注于从大 气和交通工具等分布源排放的 CO2进行捕集回收,通过从空气中直接去除 CO2,并永久转化和封存, 可有效降低大气中 CO2 浓度。大规模的空气捕获可以产生净负排放,减少储存在大气、海洋和陆地 生物中的 CO2 [7] 。相较于传统的烟气捕集,空气捕集 CO2 有其鲜明而独特的优势,它不仅不受时间和 地域的限制,还可灵活的和一些低浓度 CO2 利用方式相结合,如农林作物增产、CO2 养护混凝主等 [8] 。 本文旨在对当前 DAC 技术研究介绍的基础上,论述主流固体吸附材料 DAC 技术的研究现状, 分析各类技术的优势及遇到的挑战,阐明不同路线 DAC 技术的发展前景,探讨 DAC 技术未来的发 展方向和需要关注的重要问题。 清洁能源科学与技术 第 1 卷 第 2 期(2023) 2/23 2. DAC 技术概况 建立一个碳中和的世界需要去除大气中过量的 CO2,美国亚利桑那大学的 Lackner 于 1999 年为 缓解气候变化而提出 DAC 的概念 [9] ,是指通过吸收剂直接从 CO2 气体分压为 40 Pa 的空气中捕集 CO2 的技术。由于空气中 CO2浓度过低,科研人员对 DAC 是否能减轻温室效应产生了质疑 [10] 。随着 DAC 技术的发展,如今其已被视为一种可行的 CO2 减排技术。DAC 系统技术流程如图 1 所示 [11] ,空气中 的 CO2通过吸收剂被化学或物理结合,CO2分压降低后的空气返回大气中。吸收剂通过加热、加压或 改变湿度再生,释放出纯净的 CO2,并可重复循环使用。DAC 系统输出的纯 CO2 可以储存在地下, 或用于合成化学品或燃料等。 图 1. DAC 系统流程 [11] 。 Figure 1. DAC system process [11] . ...
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直接空气捕集CO2技术是一种不受时间和地域限制的负碳排放技术,可为“双碳”目标实现贡献力量。本文综述了CO2直接空气捕集方法的发展现状,着重介绍了固体吸附空气捕集(direct air capture, DAC)技术中金属有机框架(metal-organic frameworks, MOFs)材料、固体胺材料、碱金属基吸附剂和变湿材料四种主流固体吸附DAC技术,分析了它们在能耗、循环稳定性和吸附量等方面的优势和劣势;此外,文章分析了固体吸附材料工程应用,展示这些技术在实际应用中的潜力;最后,总结了现有DAC吸附材料面临的挑战并提出了未来发展方向。
... According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) study in the Fourth Assessment Report document, there are at least two main causes of sea level rise: the increase by thermal expansion of seawater due to rising sea temperatures and the increase due to the melting of polar ice caps and other areas that can increase the volume of seawater. (Mackay, 2008). ...
... Geographically vulnerable, Bangladesh's delta region experiences natural disasters due to factors like illiteracy, flat landscape, and periodic flooding (Uddin et al., 2019).Its unique physical and social conditions distinguish it from other vulnerable nations (Sen et al., 2004), with 80% of land as floodplains during the rainy season. Climate change primarily stems from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities, deforestation, and fossil fuel combustion (Mackay, 2008;Parry et al., 2007). CDOE is particularly influential. ...
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Climate change is a global concern driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Bangladesh, being densely populated and a significant carbon emitter, must urgently reduce its “carbon-dioxide emissions”. The primary objectives of this research are to meticulously examine the impact of green growth, non-renewable energy, renewable energy, and technological innovations on carbon dioxide emissions in Bangladesh from 1990 to 2020, with the goal of informing policies for effective and sustainable climate change mitigation in Bangladesh. The analysis using advanced econometric methods, including autoregressive distributed lag, fully modified ordinary least squares, and canonical cointegration regression, reveals that green growth and technological innovations have adverse long-term but positive short-term effects on carbon emissions in Bangladesh. Additionally, it is noteworthy that both non-renewable and renewable energy sources significantly contribute to long-term and short-term carbon emissions. The study confirms the Environmental Kuznets Curve, showing a “∩” shaped relationship between green development and carbon emissions. Policymakers should prioritize green growth, incentivize technological innovation, promote sustainable economic practices, and implement comprehensive energy transition strategies. The insights from this study inform policy formulation to address the complex relationships between green growth, energy sources, and carbon-dioxide emissions for sustainable climate change mitigation in Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s efforts contribute to global emission reduction and foster a resilient future.
... The War people, which are the sub-groups of the Khasi community (Schedule tribe), inhabit this part of the plateau, whose livelihood practises are in direct response to the variation of rainfall in different seasons as they live close to nature (Lyngdoh, 2018), where modernity is recent. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Report 2007 observed that rainfall patterns such as an early or late start of the monsoon, increasing variability of rainfall with alternating periods of too little or too much rain, and a general shift in the seasonal patterns are essential dimensions of climate change and have a considerable impact on the people in South Asia (Mackay, 2008). ...
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Climate change, increased pollution levels, and a shift in global atmospheric circulation have resulted in drastic changes in different seasons, affecting the livelihood of people with low incomes in rural areas. The present work focuses on the impact of seasonal rainfall variation on the rural livelihood of people in the Pynursla area. It examines the seasonal variation of rainfall and people's working hours by conducting a household survey to analyse how people respond to the seasonal variation of rainfall. Understanding the link between seasonal variations in rainfall and people's work schedules can lead to better planning, including the search for alternative sources of livelihood and other natural resources as income-generating assets that will help generate a regular flow of income leading toward sustainable development.
... These factors in turn affect soil fertility and productivity, which in turn affect plant growth, development, and metabolism. According to meteorological data analyses and global climate model projections, the arid and semi-arid regions of central Asia are experiencing significant changes in rainfall, with an increase in the amount of single rainfall, an increase in rainfall intensity Zhang, Yang, et al. 2023), and a prolongation of drought (Anson 2008). Drought is one of the main factors limiting plant growth in these areas; it impedes respiration, stomatal movement, and photosynthesis, which impacts the physiological and metabolic processes as well as the growth and development of plants (Hartmann and Trumbore 2016;Sainju, Lenssen, and Ghimire 2017). ...
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Global climate change has led to a shift in rainfall patterns. And as water is an essential ingredient for plant photosynthesis, shifts in rainfall patterns will inevitably affect plant growth. This study was conducted in Kunming, southwest China. In this study, the response of leaf traits and photosynthetic fluorescence properties of Fraxinus malacophylla seedlings to rainfall patterns during the dry and rainy seasons was investigated using a natural rainfall interval of 5 days (T) and an extended rainfall interval of 10 days (T+) as rainfall interval treatments and a monthly average rainfall as a control (W), with the corresponding rainfall treatments of a 40% increase in rainfall (W+) and a 40% decrease in rainfall (W−). The results showed that Pn, Gs, and Tr basically all tended to increase and then decrease with increasing rainfall in the dry season and generally reached the highest under the W treatment; Pn, Gs, Ci, and Tr mostly remained high at 5 days relative to 10 days; PI was overall higher under the W treatment throughout the dry season. Extending the rainfall interval at the beginning of the rainy season significantly reduced Fm; throughout the rainy season, Gs, Ci, and Tr basically showed a decreasing trend with increasing rainfall, reaching the highest under the W‐treatment and mostly higher at 5 days than at 10 days. These results suggest that natural rainfall intervals and natural rainfall amounts are more favorable to the growth of Fraxinus malacophylla seedlings in the dry season; reduced rainfall and multiple rainfalls in the rainy season tend to promote photosynthesis in Fraxinus malacophylla. This study reflects the different survival strategies of Fraxinus malacophylla under different rainfall patterns, as well as provides a theoretical basis for understanding how Fraxinus malacophylla can grow better under rainfall variability and for future management.
... Regarding the methodologies used to characterize the environmental impacts of the considered valorization schemes, the use of the impact assessment method ReCiPe stands out in 45 % of the articles analyzed [156], followed by the following methodologies: CML [157] with 25 %, IPCC [158] with 17 % (specially for the calculation of the Carbon Footprint), and the Environmental Footprint (EF), which was considered in 13 % of the articles analyzed (Table 2). ...
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Proper waste management is a key element in the transition to a sustainable bioeconomy. Population growth and the demand for food and services have led to an ever-increasing production of biotic waste whose disposal in landfills is no longer considered a sustainable option. For this reason, efforts are being made to find an appropriate management strategy for biotic waste, whose organic content allows it to be considered as a resource for the development of biotechnological and/or biorefinery processes. Assessing the sustainability of alternative options is of paramount importance. To this end, this systematic review researches trends in waste management in terms of technology and sustainability profile according to the life-cycle approach and multi-criteria analysis. The aim is to provide insights into potential resource recovery and waste valorization schemes towards high-value-added products in the marketplace, beyond their direct energy recovery. Our results show that future studies should focus on the development of multi-criteria analysis from an SSbD perspective, so that all pillars of sustainability and risk assessment are properly assessed from an early design stage.
... Climate change represents a mounting global challenge with significant implications for agriculture in both developed and developing nations (Mackay, 2008). In Bangladesh, where agriculture is critical for national food security and rural livelihoods, rice production is particularly vulnerable to climatic variations, which exacerbate food insecurity (Islam & Nursey-Bray, 2017). ...
... In fact, they are responsible for almost 84% of global deaths related to natural disaster (Jamali et al. 2020). In recent years, scientific communities worldwide have expressed huge concern about flash floods, as they expect that global warming, population growth, deforestation, and land use planning will increase the frequency and severity of these events, which will result in significant economic and social impacts (Bouwer et al. 2010, De Leijster et al. 2021, Mackay 2008, Woodruff et al. 2013, Hirabayashi et al. 2013, Guha-Sapir et al. 2016, Mekonnen & Hoekstra 2016.Therefore, there is an urgent need for effective spatial prediction of flash flood occurrences on different spatial scales to mitigate their damaging impacts. ...
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Effective flood hazard management requires evaluating and predicting flash flood susceptibility. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are commonly used for this task but face issues like gradient explosion and overfitting. This study explores the use of an attention mechanism, specifically the convolutional block attention module (CBAM), to enhance CNN models for flash flood susceptibility in the ungauged Rheraya watershed, a flood prone region. We used ResNet18, DenseNet121, and Xception as backbone architectures, integrating CBAM at different locations. Our dataset included 16 conditioning factors and 522 flash flood inventory points. Performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Results showed that CBAM significantly improved model performance, with DenseNet121 incorporating CBAM in each convolutional block achieving the best results (accuracy = 0.95, AUC = 0.98). Distance to river and drainage density were identified as key factors. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the attention mechanism in improving flash flood susceptibility modeling and offer valuable insights for disaster management.
... Prioritizing adaptation alongside global mitigation initiatives is crucial for combating climate change. Adaptation is a complex, multidimensional, and multi-level activity aimed at reducing societal susceptibility to environmental changes (Adger et al., 2007;Chambwera & Stage, 2010). The categorization of adaptation reactions is dependent on several aspects, such as the extent of their implementation, their purpose, the timing of the responses in relation to climatic stress, their duration, and their overall impact (Burton (Canada), B. Challenger (Antigua and Barbuda) & R.J.T. Klein (Germany/The Netherlands), 2018). ...
... In recent years, the afforestation and reforestation of mangroves has become increasingly important as a measure to mitigate the effects of climate change (Bastin et al., 2019;Macreadie et al., 2021).-Globally, mangroves are disappearing at a startling rate of 2 percent annually, based on the most trustworthy estimates (Pendleton et al., 2012), the IPCC has issued a concerning prediction, stating that if the current rate of loss persists, approximately 30%-40% of the coastal environment and 100% of mangrove forested areas may disappear in the next 100 years (Mackay, 2008;Macintosh et al., 2002). A significant change in land use and cover that significantly affected the sustainability of mangrove vegetation in the Red Sea (Arshad et al., 2020). ...
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Mangrove ecosystems are vital to arid environments like Saudi Arabia, offering crucial ecological services and enhancing biodiversity. This study investigates the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of mangrove coverage in the Al Wajh lagoon area, crucial for crafting effective conservation and management strategies. Employing high-resolution Landsat and Sentinel imagery, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) were analysed across 35 mangrove clusters. By 2023, mangroves covered approximately 24.5 km². Kendall Tau-b Correlation Coefficients confirmed a significant positive trend. The study further explored the relationship between NDVI and surface temperature, revealing an inverse correlation with slope values ranging from −4.03 to −44.1, suggesting that increased mangrove coverage significantly contributes to local cooling, thereby underscoring the climate regulation benefits of mangrove conservation. This positive change in NDVI post-2020 is directly attributable to the conservation efforts embedded within the Red Sea Project, Vision 2030, development phases, demonstrating the critical role of designated conservation zones in mitigating the environmental impacts of large-scale development projects. The findings underscore the need for targeted policies to protect and expand mangrove habitats as part of broader environmental sustainability goals in the region.
... Carbon emissions from poultry and livestock manure mainly include emissions from intestinal fermentation and feces. These emissions are calculated based on the corresponding emission coefficients [37] ( Table 2). The calculation formula is as follows: ...
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Optimizing agricultural carbon compensation zoning is crucial for establishing robust mechanisms in agricultural carbon compensation management, with significant implications for achieving national “dual carbon” strategic objectives. This study employs K-means and the three-dimensional magic cube approach to construct a novel evaluation index system for comprehensive carbon compensation zoning. By combining spatial land-use zoning, we delineate carbon compensation zones in Guangshui City, Hubei Province, and analyze the spatiotemporal variations of agricultural carbon balance, proposing optimization strategies. The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2021, agricultural carbon emissions and absorption exhibit a trend of increasing followed by decreasing, with spatial patterns of “higher in the northwest, lower in the southeast” and “higher in the southwest, lower in the northeast”; (2) the Gini coefficient of agricultural carbon emissions averages at 0.24, with economic contribution coefficients and ecological carrying coefficients ranging from 0.04–16.1 and 0.39–1.99, respectively, from 2000 to 2021; and (3) in 2021, Guangshui City comprises seven payment zones, four balance zones, and six compensation zones, ultimately forming eight optimized agricultural carbon compensation zones in alignment with regional agricultural carbon balance objectives. This study provides theoretical references for enhancing county-level agricultural carbon comprehensive compensation management mechanisms.
... The observed rise in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is widely attributed to the escalation in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, as indicated by the IPCC Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report [1]. This anthropogenic climate change has deleterious effects on both physical and biological systems worldwide, impacting marine ecosystems, exacerbating forest fire activity, presenting challenges and costs for societies on a global scale, and increasing the frequency and extent of more intense weather events such as floods, droughts, storms, food and energy insecurity as evidenced by various studies [2][3][4][5][6]. ...
... A wide range of countries experience the impact of climate change on their economic sectors, especially agriculture (Sarkodie et al., 2019;Ahsan et al., 2020;Chhogyel et al., 2020). According to Mackay (2008), agricultural sector, compared to other economic sectors is more vulnerable to the effects of climate change and weather extremes, including temperature changes, irregular precipitation patterns and increased frequencies of floods and droughts (Ahsan et al., 2020;Markou et al., 2020). ...
Article
Purpose Climate change-related weather events significantly affect rice production. In this paper, we investigate the impact of and interrelationships between agriculture inputs, climate change factors and financial variables on rice production in India from 1970–2021. Design/methodology/approach This study is based on the time series analysis; the unit root test has been employed to unveil the integration order. Further, the study used various econometric techniques, including vector autoregression estimates (VAR), cointegration test, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and diagnostic test for ARDL, fully modified least squares (FMOLS), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), impulse response functions (IRF) and the variance decomposition method (VDM) to validate the long- and short-term impacts of climate change on rice production in India of the scrutinized variables. Findings The study's findings revealed that the rice area, precipitation and maximum temperature have a significant and positive impact on rice production in the short run. In the long run, rice area (ß = 1.162), pesticide consumption (ß = 0.089) and domestic credit to private sector (ß = 0.068) have a positive and significant impact on rice production. The results show that minimum temperature and direct institutional credit for agriculture have a significant but negative impact on rice production in the short run. Minimum temperature, pesticide consumption, domestic credit to the private sector and direct institutional credit for agriculture have a negative and significant impact on rice production in the long run. Originality/value The present study makes valuable and original contributions to the literature by examining the short- and long-term impacts of climate change on rice production in India over 1970–2021. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, The majority of the studies examined the impact of climate change on rice production with the consideration of only “mean temperature” as one of the climatic variables, while in the present study, the authors have considered both minimum as well as maximum temperature. Furthermore, the authors also considered the financial variables in the model.
... IPCC (2019) and Wheeler and Braun (2013) have highlighted the significant role of these factors in shaping the adverse effects of climate change on agrarian economies. Central and South Asian countries, for instance, have experienced a 30% decrease in crop yield due to increased rainfall during the summer monsoon (Mackay, 2008). This emphasizes the vulnerability of agrarian economies in these regions to climate change and its subsequent impact on economic growth. ...
Article
This study investigates the impact of temperature and rainfall on economic growth in Asian countries using panel data regression analysis from 1991 to 2021. The results reveal a significant negative relationship between temperature and economic growth, with a 1°C rise leading to a 0.385% reduction in growth. High-temperature countries experience a more significant adverse effect compared to low-temperature countries. However, despite displaying a negative trend, rainfall does not significantly influence economic growth statistically. The study also finds differences in the impact of climate variables across different income groups. Additionally, temperature negatively affects the growth rate of agrarian countries, while rainfall does not significantly influence their growth dynamics. These findings underscore the importance of considering climate change in understanding economic growth and highlight the need for policymakers to prioritize climate risk assessment and adopt appropriate climate change mitigation and resilience strategies in Asian countries. JEL Classification E23, O13, Q54
... The changes to air temperature will also come with changes to water temperature, and water temperature changes can adversely impact water quality [13]. This coupled with the increases in heavy precipitation events can accelerate the transport of pathogens and other pollutants [14]. On the other hand, this may be offset by the dilution effect of increased flow in some regions [7]. ...
... The report concluded that this influence is extremely likely. The negative effects of climate change on streamflow and water quality pose a significant threat to freshwater habitats [8]. ...
... The term "greenhouse effect" was first coined by Swedish meteorologists in 1901 in response to the growing problem of climate change caused by global warming [1] . According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) [2] . The report emphasizes that the rising concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4 and CO in the atmosphere is the main cause of the global warming phenomenon [3] , whereas greenhouse gases other than CO2 are much less concentrated in the atmosphere than CO2, which is the most dominant gas contributing to the greenhouse effect [4] , and that the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is considered to be the most closely related to global warming. ...
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Direct air capture (DAC) of CO2 is a carbon-negative technology that is not limited by time and geography, and can contribute to the realization of the “dual-carbon” goal. This paper reviews the current development of direct air capture of CO2, focuses on four mainstream solid adsorption DAC technologies, namely, MOFs, solid amine materials, alkali metal-based adsorbents, and moisture-altering materials, and analyzes their advantages and disadvantages in terms of energy consumption, cyclic stability, and adsorption capacity; in addition, the paper analyzes the engineering applications of solid adsorbent materials and demonstrates the potential of these technologies in practical applications; finally, it summarizes the challenges faced by the existing DAC adsorbent materials and puts forward the future development direction.
... Flooding limits rice production, particularly in rainfed lowland ecosystems. This is exacerbated by the irregular and uncertain distribution of rainfall, in itself accelerated by climate change, which is a major concern today (Mackay, 2008). Weather variability has increased globally, and Africa's heavy reliance on rainfed agriculture makes it highly vulnerable to weather extremes, including floods (Agbeleye et al., 2019). ...
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Climate change has intensified food security challenges, especially in Africa, where a significant portion of produce is reliant on smallholder farmers in rainfed conditions. Prolonged flooding and droughts, driven by erratic weather patterns, have significantly elevated the risk of food scarcity. Floods, in particular, have been responsible for severe crop losses, raising concerns about increasing import costs if this issue is not mitigated. Africa is actively working to mitigate the impacts of flooding and enhance food security, although progress has been gradual. Developing flood-resilient varieties is a promising strategy to address this challenge. We explored various flood types common in the region and observed a scarcity of research on flood-resilient varieties, particularly those adapted for anaerobic germination and stagnant flooding. Conversely, varieties bred for flash flooding, such as FARO 66 and FARO 67, have seen limited distribution, primarily confined to a few West African countries, falling short of the intended impact. In contrast, deepwater tolerance research dates back to the early 1900s, but commercialization of the varieties remains limited, with scarce information regarding their cultivation, coverage, and performance. Newly developed varieties, such as Kolondieba 2 and Kadia 24, have received less attention, leaving many farmers dependent on locally adapted cultivars specific to particular areas. Remarkably, despite the limited information, both released and local stress-tolerant cultivars exhibit substantial survival rates and yield advantages. For instance, FARO 66 and FARO 67 have demonstrated 1–3 t/ha yield advantages over recurrent parents under flooding stress. Nonetheless, further efforts are required to address various forms of flooding. To this end, AfricaRice collaborates with National Rice Development Strategies, IRRI, and other partners to promote research and development. While improved flood-tolerant varieties remain limited in scope across Africa, the financial gains for farmers are significant when compared to susceptible cultivars. As the continent’s population continues to grow rapidly, there is untapped potential in African germplasms, making ongoing research and breeding strategies essential. Therefore, this review highlights the importance of intensifying efforts in screening and identifying flood-tolerant rice. Furthermore, it underscores the value of utilizing traditional flood-resilient cultivars in breeding to enhance the productivity of widely distributed and cultivated varieties.
... For instance, a flood in Zhengzhou, China in July 2021, resulted in direct economic losses of US $17.682 billion, affecting 7.79 million people with 292 casualties (https: //www.chinanews.com). As urbanization accelerates, population grows, sea level rises, and climate change continues, flood events will become more frequent and intense, with increasingly significant economic and social impacts (Bouwer et al., 2010;De Leijster et al., 2021;Mackay, 2008;Woodruff et al., 2013). Within this context, an essential strategy is needed to prevent the damage caused by flooding events in flood-prone areas . ...
Article
Traditional machine learning algorithms face challenges in assessing flood susceptibility reliably due to their low robustness and the inherent 'black-box' nature. This paper utilizes five hyperparameter optimization algoirthms (HPO), namely grid search (GS), random search (RS), gauss process (GP), tree-structured parzen estimator (TPE) and simulated annealing (SA), to tune the traditional random forest’s (RF) hyperparameters to improve the robustness of flood hazard mapping (FHM) models at Ningxiang City Hunan Province, China. Additionally, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method were used to interpret the decision-mechanisms of these flood hazard models. This study considers 19 pluvial flood influencing factors and 2064 flood locations to create a geospatial database. The performance of each hybrid model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and several validation methods. The results demonstrate that the developed hybrid models demonstrated good performance, with RF-TPE achieving the highest AUC (0.9660), followed by RF-GP (0.9648), RF-SA (0.9624), RF-GS (0.9612), RF-RS (0.9600), and RF (0.9539). The RF-TPE model exhibits superior robustness than other models, and the FHM constructed using it is more reliable. HPO is an effective approach to improve the predictive accuracy and robustness of FHM models. When considering limited computational resources, Bayesian optimization (TPE) should be prioritized for optimizing FHM models, followed by metaheuristic algorithms and model-free algorithms. Moreover, the study revealed that distance from river, peak rainfall intensity, continuous rainfall, antecedent effective rainfall, and terrain relief, are the most significant for pluvial FHM modeling in this region.
... Climate models predict that the global average temperature will continue to rise (Mackay, 2008). This temperature increase poses a serious threat to agricultural products, with heat stress being one of the non-living stressors that limit the production of many crops. ...
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INFO ABSTRACT Research Paper Brassica napus is a versatile crop with oil and protein-rich seeds, used in food, industry, medicine, and animal feed. However, heat stress limits its productivity, making it essential to identify genes and pathways involved in stress response. We analyzed differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in B. napus under heat stress using bioinformatics tools to identify key genes and pathways. Firstly, DEGs were analyzed for gene interactions using the STRING database and visualized using Cytoscape. To identify key genes involved in heat stress response in B .napus L., we employed the CytoHubba tool for hub gene identification. Additionally, we conducted Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway analyses to gain insights into the functional roles and potential biological pathways associated with these genes. We also used MEME Suite to analyze the promoter regions of hub genes. Our results showed decreased activity of the b6-f complex, a key component of the electron transport chain, under heat stress. We also identified significantly enriched calcium transporter ATPase and heat shock protein family (HSP20). KEGG and cluster analyses highlighted the importance of membrane lipids, galactose metabolism, and protein processing in the endoplasmic reticulum in stress and signal transduction. Our study provided key genes, including transcription factors and chaperones for developing heat-resistant plants via genetic modification. However, these promising results were obtained through rigorous bioinformatics analysis and require further validation using experimental approaches, such as gene editing, phenotypic characterization, and field trials. How to cite this article: Makvandi N., Ghorbani A., Rostami M., Rostami A., and Ghasemi-Soloklui A. A. (2022). Identification of key genes involved in heat stress response in Brassica napus L.: reconstruction of gene networks, hub genes, and promoter analysis.
... Some consequences of coastal erosion are coastal area inundation, damage to settlement and infrastructures, displacement of people (Nicholls et al. 2008;Pacifici et al. 2018;Gallina et al., 2019;Nicholls et al. 2021;Dedekorkut-Howes et al. 2021). Dramatic coastal changes are occurring despite rapid population growth, urbanization, growth in socio-economic activities and migration (Stanley and Warne 1993;Mackay 2008). The coastal area remains a major concern because it is very populated with more than half of the world's population living 100 km away from the oceans (Zhang et al. 2004). ...
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... This includes the temperature of the ocean alone [2], which inevitably leads to the rising of the sea level [3]. Climate change is expected to continue through the current century [4], and its magnitude will be related to the quantity of heat-trapping gases globally emitted in the atmosphere [5]. ...
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... Finally, a vulnerability calculation model is constructed according to the "sensitivityadaptability" function (Mackay, 2007), and the vulnerability indexes of 22 indicators in the parameter layer of 65 BRI countries are calculated separately. The function model is as follows: ...
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Assessing the vulnerability of the economy, society, and environment of the belt and road initiative (BRI) countries and identifying the distribution characteristics are significant to promoting the construction of the Belt and Road. Based on the panel data of the BRI countries, this study selects 22 indicators from three aspects of the economy, society, and environment to construct a comprehensive indicator evaluation system and propose a multi-index and long time series vulnerability calculation scheme. Furthermore, the spatial differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of vulnerability in BRI countries are studied. The results show hierarchical differences in the comprehensive vulnerability index of BRI countries, and the low-vulnerability countries accounted for the largest proportion. The economic vulnerability, social vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability of the BRI countries all have apparent spatial variations. Among them, the vulnerability of various systems in Central and Eastern Europe and Northeast Asia is relatively low, while most of West Asia, northern South Asia, southern Central Asia, and some parts of Southeast Asia have relatively high vulnerability. In addition, economic development, economic structure, resource security, and infrastructure are all factors that have a greater impact on the comprehensive vulnerability, while the impact intensity varies with regional differences. Finally, this paper puts forward appropriate suggestions. With the goal of reducing the comprehensive vulnerability, this paper tries to provide a reference for better promoting the sustainable development of the BRI.
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... Future climate projections indicate that global temperatures are likely to continue to rise throughout the 21st century. It is projected that, on average, annual increases of 1-3°C in global temperatures may occur by 2050 [13], which will be amplified in southern Africa [10]. By 2100, warming is projected to increase the average temperature by 3-4°C along the South African coast and by 6-7°C inland, surpassing the anticipated global warming averages [14]. ...
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... Northern Ghana, where the Mole National Park is located, is predominantly a savannah ecosystem, and challenges such as illegal logging of rosewood, charcoal production [49,50], water stress, reduced food security, and other socio-ecological issues associated with weather variability have been drastic [36,37,51,52]. In such ecosystems, projected changes in habitat heterogeneity are expected to drive changes in avian community assemblages and their respective functional roles [47,[53][54][55]. ...
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... Human actions like fossil fuel combustion, indiscriminate land use, land cover, and so on are to blame for rising GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. In addition to water vapor and solar irradiance, wellmixed GHGs such as CO 2 , nitrous oxide (N 2 O), methane (CH 4 ), and halocarbons contribute to global temperature rises and climate change [9]. Global surface temperature is rising significantly, and crops may be unable to be cultivated in the future if such events continue [10]. ...
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Little research explores how climate extremes affect early childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, despite great vulnerability to both climate extremes and high rates of early childhood mortality. Although there have been substantial improvements in early childhood mortality in recent decades, climate change threatens to offset this progress. Focusing on the case of Côte d’Ivoire, I combine individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys with high-resolution climate data to investigate how and when in-utero exposure to severe agricultural droughts influences early childhood mortality. I find that in-utero exposure to severe agricultural droughts increases the probability of under-five mortality, and most recent droughts seem to exert the greatest impact. I also find that boys and children born into families with little to no formal education are highly vulnerable to drought exposure during gestation. Maternal education mitigates the negative impact of droughts on under-five survival, regardless of urban or rural residence, suggesting that its protective effects may be linked to specific knowledge, behaviours, and practices that highly educated mothers employ rather than their living environment. These findings carry important lessons for policymakers, emphasising the need for policies that enhance educational opportunities for parents and develop targeted interventions for boys and children from families with little formal education.
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Plain Language Summary Sustainability in NGO Programming The sustainability of NGO initiatives has become an aspect on which the success of programming is judged. This study explores the conditions needed to achieve sustainable change by focusing on a sector that has recently experienced a shift towards more sustainable, interdisciplinary programming: that of working equine (animal welfare) NGOs. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews with 32 NGO staff working for 8 different animal welfare NGOs across 13 countries were conducted. These interviews covered potential barriers and avenues to success in producing sustainable working animal welfare improvements. Thematic analysis revealed consistent themes across contexts and organizations. Approaches perceived as creating sustainable outcomes were ones that tailored initiatives to local contexts, focused on changing human behaviour, worked with key community contacts, built capacity in local infrastructure, combined approaches and had comprehensive exit strategies. Barriers to sustainability included lack of continuity, short funding cycles and unpredictable external factors. Consideration of these conditions for designing effective future initiatives is recommended across the wider not-for-profit sector.
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A forest fire has a profound impact on wildlife, atmospheric, economic and ecosystem structure. The ever-increasing average global temperature and climate change have increased the frequency and magnitude of forest fires. The cause of forest fires can be natural as well as human-caused. This research focuses on the detection technique through which a wildfire incident can be reported as early as possible. In this work, an alert about a forest fire/wildfire is created as soon as it takes place and then spread the news to the world. This aims to solve the negligence of the forest fires taking place and the lack of any specific alerting mechanism of the same. In result analysis, the study proves that the system works with good accuracy once the image has been uploaded by a user. This work only focuses on the detection mechanism of forest fires/wildfires by creating alerts of those incidents and uploading them to Twitter.KeywordsAzure cognitive servicesNETForest fireMicrosoft azureTwitter API
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The application of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) studies faces many challenges, especially in developing countries. This problem was investigated in the existing literature and via a designed questionnaire among local practitioners. The reasons were mainly attributed to the seclusion of the EIA process across the project’s phases, as well as the complexity of the EIA procedures. Hence, the research argues that Building Information Modelling (BIM) applications can be the key to resolve several associated problems to EIA either directly, or indirectly by streamlining Environmental Management System (EMS). Thus, a keyword-based scientometric analysis was used to define parameters and interrelations and establish network analysis for a proposed BIM-based EIA framework. The proposed framework presents scoring schemes to support three types of assessments: the efficiency of applying BIM techniques for an EIA process (Score A), proper integration of BIM techniques for different EIA steps (Score I) and proper integration of BIM techniques across project phases (Score B). It also shows the interplay of points between the three schemes via a Sankey diagram. The proposed framework was applied to compare three major construction projects in a developing country, the case of Egypt to pinpoint areas of drawbacks. The results pinpointed poor application of advanced BIM models to support sustainability analysis for EIA studies. This is in addition to imbalance of applying BIM applications across different project phases, it was notably less pronounced for the operation and maintenance stage as well as end of life scenarios. Also, poor integration of BIM tools could not support decisions related to the mitigation step. Hence, applying 6-dimensional BIM model shall enable developing mitigation measures and shall support design optimization during building operation and end of life phase. This novel approach presents the required level of verification and quality control procedure needed by decision-makers and environmental engineers to perform EIA studies and pave the way for further related research. Graphical Abstract
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