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Explaining Success and Failure of War to Peace Transitions: Revisiting the Angolan and Mozambican Experience

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... The most common strategies in resolving conflicts include negotiation, mediation, peacekeeping, peacebuilding, and post-conflict reconciliation (Galtung, 1996;Wallensteen, 2007). Kornprobst (2002) observes that "Most of the literature emphasizes the causal relationship between conflict resolution techniques … and the success or failure of war to peace transition". However, the approach excludes the category of actors who are not necessarily involved in negotiations, mediation, peace-keeping or peace-building, but use other, equally important, power tools, such as, decisions, resolutions, declarations, recommendations, and diplomatic channels, all of which contribute to, facilitate, even prompt, and support commonly used interventions. ...
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How do regional Parliaments contribute to conflict resolution? At what point in time do they intervene and with what impact? These are the key questions pursued in this paper. The ultimate purpose is to stimulate further discussion on the subject. The methodology employed is qualitative, historical and discourse analysis based on desk reviews. The study was conducted in 2011 and 12 with a focus on the experiences of the Pan-African Parliament (PAP) in four countries (Cote d’Ivoire, Sudan, Libya, and Somalia). The findings of the study reveal that regional parliaments play important roles in resolving violent conflicts. The study also confirms that in most cases, regional parliaments begin to intervene when conflict starts to escalate and stay involved until the situation stabilizes. In the process, regional parliamentarians use a range of tools: internal debates, fact-finding missions, providing fora for different actors, organizing meetings with diplomatic representations, and issuing periodic communications. These instruments target not only parties to conflicts but also other stakeholders with direct and indirect effects on conflict settings. Moreover, the study highlights that the positions of regional parliaments on a given conflict change depend on changing circumstances on the ground and parliamentarians' understanding of the situation. The paper concludes that though the power of PAP is limited to consultative and advisory roles, it plays considerable roles in trying to settle conflicts in different parts of the continent. Key words: Conflict resolution, African Union, regional parliaments, Pan African parliament, diplomacy
... Despite this seemingly inexorable logic of outbidding, the literature has failed to address the variation that exists in outbidding outcomes during and after peace mediations. Not only did a cluster of anti-Annan Plan parties fail to outbid the Democratic Rally in Cyprus, but there are also examples of outbidding failure across post-conflict societies; in Croatia (Hislope 1997), Angola (Kornprobst 2002), and India (Chandra 2005). Relevant scholarship has shown that outbidding during contested mediations did not earn electoral rewards for its adherents. ...
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Ethnic outbidding in divided societies can have dire political consequences, ranging from the derailment of peace processes to inter-ethnic warfare. This article investigates the conditions contributing to successful outbidding within the framework of protracted peace negotiations by using the contrasting cases of Northern Ireland and Cyprus. Evidence demonstrates that successful outbidders are able to exploit the fears of their communities with respect to inter-ethnic compromise while identifying appropriate strategies and opportunities for redressing these grievances. The article demonstrates that the degree of outbidding success over the long term derives from combining diagnostic and prognostic frames linked to credible political and constitutional strategies.
... 9 Total asymmetry is reflected in the absence (or immediate Luttwak, 2001; van Creveld, 2008; Wright, 1967)Kaldor, 2007; Kalyvas, 2009). Anteriormente descritas (incorretamente) como guerrilhas (Derriennic, 2001; Kaldor, 2007; Kalyvas, 2006; Lockyer, 2008; Wright, 1967Booth & Wheeler, 2007; Mearsheimer, 2007; Waltz, 1979), a literatura de guerras civis não faz o mesmo, de forma direta (Kalyvas, 2009) (Kornprobst, 2002; Pollack & Taylor, 1983; Porch, 1977) Cravos transformou o processo suporte em uma questão de política internacional (enquadrada nas estratégias da Guerra Fria): Moscou e Havana ajudavam o MPLA a resistir à " iniciativa neocolonial " representada pelos seus oponentes, enquanto a FNLA e a UNITA recebiam ajuda para evitar a " ameaça comunista " (Guimarães, 1998; Lockyer, 2008)Berdal & Malone, 2000; Walter, 2003). O choque entre a base socialista do MPLA e a matriz ocidental da UNITA, da maioria Lockyer, 2011; Marcum, 1978) Conceitualmente, a tendência do conflito simétrico não-­‐convencional é de se prolongar indefinidamente, como é, por exemplo, o caso da Somália: a incapacidade de qualquer uma das partes obter uma vitória sobre a outra, entretanto com um nível de institucionalização e capacidades materiais de mobilização da violência muito baixas. ...
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Nesta dissertação, procuro argumentar que existe um espaço de interseção entre dois corpos teóricos distintos, que focam-­‐se em explicar dimensões distintas de um mesmo evento. A violência com fins políticos, enquanto fenômeno amplo, pode acontecer dentro ou fora das fronteiras territoriais do Estado. A Teoria de Relações Internacionais, dedica-­‐se a entender como o fenômeno da violência política ocorre entre Estados, e a literatura dedicada à violência intraestatal e as guerras civis analisa as dinâmicas internas de violência entre agentes confinados ao Estado ou, de uma maneira geral, sub-­‐estatais. Mais argumentando que a Anarquia é um espaço de interseção teórica e prática entre os dois corpos teóricos, e considerando que é este o ponto central que define a mobilização da violência para fins políticos nas explicações oferecidas por ambos deverá servir de elemento articulador em uma tentativa de alcançar um modelo de análise que tenta combinar os ensinamentos do Realismo Estrutural, e com estado da arte no estudo racional da relação entre institucionalização, forma de fazer a guerra, uso da violência com fins políticos e dos processos de conflito. Objetivando verificar a validade desta proposta, organizei um modelo baseado em testes simples baseados em perguntas referentes ao aparecimento de fenômenos ou dinâmicas de identificação relativamente simples, mantida a coerência interna e o valor explicativo complementar entre os diversos aspectos avaliados. Finalmente, conduzi um plausibility probe, submetendo o modelo de análise ao caso da Guerra Civil Angolana, de modo a demonstrar que a proposta é no mínimo, intelectualmente válida.
... Each agent has two possible strategies: cease-fire or neglect the truce. For the guerrilla group, the cease-fire implies a resignation of the appropriated income but also a reduction in 1 This category was developed by Kornprobst (2002). ...
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We study economic conflicts using a game theoretical approach. We model a conflict between two agents where each one has two possible strategies: cease-fire or neglect the truce. Under this setting, we use the concept of pre-donations, namely, a redefinition of the game where agents commit to transfer a share of their output to the other agent (Sertel, 1992), and explain under which conditions a system of pre-donations can facilitate a truce. We find that for conflicts involving high costs there is a distributive mechanism, acceptable for both parties, such that, the best strategy for both parties is Cease-Fire. However, in many cases there are no sufficient conditions for the scheme or pre-donations to be effective. We also analyze some limitations of this framework and extend the model in order to deal with some of these flaws. Finally, in order to illustrate the relevance of the theoretical results we briefly describe some of the circumstances that characterized the negotiation processes between the Colombian government and different illegal groups.
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This paper examines the theory of civil war and conflict resolution to answer the question, why peace processes fail or move forward? I will look at peace processes in Colombia in the last five years when negotiation started and then broke with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia –FARC- and began with the United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia –AUC-. The theory revels the relevance of economic, political, external participation and military factor to explain why some peace processes fail while others succeed. For instance, the failure of the first peace dialogue with the left-wing guerrilla FARC can be explained by the military strategy, the role of violence during the talks and lack of international participation. By contrast, by avoiding all sensitive points of the first peace dialogue, AUC won a significant public support and the government confidence to begin talks. We have thus two recent peace processes in Colombia to analyse: one failed and one moving forward. Their analysis will help us to answer the opening question of this paper. ********************************************************************* Este trabajo examina la teoría sobre guerras civiles y resolución de conflictos con el fin de contestar la pregunta: ¿por qué fracasan o progresan los procesos de paz? Se miraron los procesos de paz en Colombia en los últimos cinco años cuando comenzó y fracasó el proceso de paz con las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC y comenzaron con las Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia, AUC. La teoría revela la relevancia de factores económicos, políticos, participación externa y militares para explicar por que fallan o prosperan los procesos de paz. Por su parte, el fracaso de las negociaciones con las FARC puede explicarse por razones de estrategia militar, el rol de la violencia durante la negociación y la falta de participación internacional. De otro lado, evitando todos los puntos sensibles de la negociación inicial, las AUC ganaron apoyo de la opinión publica y la confianza del gobierno para iniciar los diálogos. De esta forma, tenemos dos procesos recientes en Colombia para analizar: uno que fallo y el otro que esta progresando. El análisis de estos procesos puede ayudarnos a contestar la pregunta inicial de este trabajo.
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