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Potential benefits of climate change for crop productivity in China

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... China supplies food to~20% of the world's population by using only 9% of the world's cultivated land (Rosegrant and Cline, 2003;FAOSTAT, 2012;Yang et al., 2015), thus grain production is an extremely important and urgent issue in China (Liu et al., 2013;Zuo et al., 2014). Being a major country for grain production, the contradiction between man and land is prominent in China in the context of rapid economic development and unprecedented urban expansion (Yang et al., 2015;Zhou et al., 2019). ...
... China supplies food to~20% of the world's population by using only 9% of the world's cultivated land (Rosegrant and Cline, 2003;FAOSTAT, 2012;Yang et al., 2015), thus grain production is an extremely important and urgent issue in China (Liu et al., 2013;Zuo et al., 2014). Being a major country for grain production, the contradiction between man and land is prominent in China in the context of rapid economic development and unprecedented urban expansion (Yang et al., 2015;Zhou et al., 2019). Although various studies have concerned the influences of climate change, natural disaster and adoption strategies on crop environment and agricultural production (Dai et al., 2015;Muhammad et al., 2018;Ilyas et al., 2020), how to improve the grain production ability in current cultivated land to meet increasing requirements of people is still a great challenge. ...
... Agriculture is one of the most sensitive fields to the climate change (Dai et al., 2015;Tao et al., 2006;Liu et al., 2010b). On account of warming temperature, climate change have largely affected the agricultural production environment, cropping distribution patterns, cropping intensity and crop yield (Yang et al., 2015;Xu et al., 2017). Hydrothermal conditions are vital factors for crop growth, many studies have reported the relationships between agricultural production and climate variables in the context of global warming (Tubiello et al., 2000;Liu et al., 2013;Yang et al., 2015;Abbas et al., 2017;Meng et al., 2017). ...
Article
Climate warming and its corresponding impacts on agriculture system increasingly attach great attentions. Earlier studies more concerned the impacts of the cultivated area expansion under climate change. Yet limited knowledge is about the impacts of climate warming on the cropping index change with the shifts of cropping system border. In this study, we used climatic data (1961-2015) to firstly investigate impacts of warming temperature on potential cropping system border expansion of China, and further used agricultural statistical data and satellite-based land use data to analyze the response of current land system to potential cropping system border expansion. Results of this study indicated that obviously advanced SDT10 and prolonged EDT10 contributed to the 88.4% regions of increased AAT10 at the past half century. Moreover, the northward expansion of the suitable cultivated areas in different cropping systems provided advantages for potential multiple cropping index (PMCI) improvement. Unfortunately, this study found that a significantly declined multiple cropping index (MCI) was observed in the peri-urban regions and the provinces with large out-migration of agriculture labor. The evidently increased MCI was only greatly observed in Xinjiang province. Besides, the potential increment of multiple cropping index (PIMCI) for different cropping system border expansion regions presented a rising trend and reached 53.6% in 2015 due to warming climate. Particularly, the significantly increased PIMCI was observed in the Loess Plateau, the Inner Mongolia, the Middle-lower Yangtze Plain, Northeast China Plain, Southern China and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region. However, the response of current land system to the changes of PMCI and PIMCI was not timely. Based on the findings of our study, some potential agriculture development strategies were suggested by comprehensively considering regional natural conditions, agricultural production conditions and socioeconomic conditions. We hope these findings of this study could provide some valuable information for agricultural development policy decision-making.
... However, prior studies have not taken these temporal-dimension variables into consideration. By simplifying the diversity of crops or by assuming a few standardized crops that have limited variation in GD (Yang et al., 2015), those prior studies suggested that a large proportion of existing croplands worldwide have harvested less frequently than it could be, resulting in the cropping intensity gaps (CIG) (Ray and Foley, 2013;Wu et al., 2018;Yu et al., 2018Yu et al., , 2017. However, those assessments might be over/under estimated the gaps in exploiting the multiple cropping potential, as the relationship between GS and GD has not been appropriately considered. ...
... It locates at the south bank of Poyang Lake: the biggest fresh water lake in China (Fig. 1a). According to existing studies, Jinxian County not only has a relatively high cropland use intensity in reality (Tian et al., 2015;Yan et al., 2013), but also has the potential for triple-cropping owing to the favorable climate conditions (Fig. 1b) (Yang et al., 2015), both of which are beneficial to agricultural development. Jinxian County has been praised for producing and providing agricultural commodity in terms of grain, cotton and oil (Yan et al., 2013), and played a key role in the "National Plan for an Increase of Production Capacity for 50 Billion Kg of Food (2009-2020)" (The State Council, 2019). ...
... We collect multi-source data from existing studies, agrometeorological stations and field surveys. The maximum potential multiple cropping in the study region is three crops a year (Fig. 1b) (Yang et al., 2015). We generated a hybrid dataset by blending MODIS and GF-1/WFV images in 2015 (known as GF-MODIS hereafter), which has been further processed by converting the scattered NDVI values into smoothed curves at the pixel level (see an illustration in Fig. 2). ...
Article
Land use intensification increases crop production without reclaiming new cropland from natural ecosystems. In addition to the yield-improving approaches, scientists began to assess the multiple cropping potential as an alternative for intensification. These existing assessments largely focused on the number of multiple cropping frequency (MCF) while ignoring the crop growth duration (GD) required by a complete cropping circle, which may bring uncertainty on the estimates. In this study, we aim to address such uncertainty by comprehensively considering the relation between MCF and GD. Selecting Jinxian county, Jiangxi Province, as a study area, we use time-series remote sensing imageries to observe MCF and GD, and to estimate the region’s annual growing season (GS) by aggregating the crop-specific GDs corresponding to the MCF. We further apply scenario analysis to understand how crop choice. i.e. longer GD v.s. shorter GD, would influence the exploitation of GS and thus the multiple cropping potential. Results show that without considering GD, 33.63% croplands have the potential to harvest another time and 64.84% cropland could have two-extra harvests, which would result in the harvested area increased by + 163.31%. However, if GD is considered, this potential is estimated much lower in overall and is varied greatly across crop selection scenarios. In the most close-to-reality scenario, roughly 40% croplands have no potential to make extra harvest, because the GS in many areas have been largely exploited and the remaining GS is insufficient to sustain another complete crop growth. Our study shows that crop choice plays an important role in measuring and exploiting the multiple cropping potential, which provides implications for China’s “agricultural supply-side structural reform” through sustainable land use intensification.
... The study region includes five provinces, i.e., Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. According to the method of Yang et al. [10], we used the spatial analysis tool in ArcGIS 10.2(Esri Inc., Redlands, CA, USA) to depict the two northern limits of DRCS for the coldest and warmest years in China [38]. The areas that were within these two specific boundaries are considered sensitive to climate variability for rice cropping. ...
... In China, the domestic population is expected to increase quickly following the institution of the two-child policy (the singlechild policy ended) in 2015. According to the most recent studies in the study region, air temperature increase made it possible to expand the planting area of DRCS, and total rice grain yield could increase by 4% if DRCS replaced SRCS [10,60]. However, expanding DRCS might not be economically feasible due to the relatively high profit-cost ratio. ...
... Inevitably, this study has some limitations. We referred to the air-temperature-defined (including indices of annual accumulated temperature above 0 °C, extreme minimum temperature, a period of 20 °C termination) northern limit of DRCS in China [10,68] to locate the study region. However, the northern limit of DRCS was also affected by other non-weather factors, such as government intervention in the rice grain market, availability of agricultural labor force, access to advanced cultivation techniques (i.e., prevention of agro-meteorological disasters for rice production), and so on. ...
Article
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Global warming might expand crop growth areas for the prevailing single and double rice cropping systems in Southern China. Based on historical weather and crop data from 1981 to 2015, we evaluated the economic benefit and environmental cost for single and double rice cropping systems (SRCS and DRCS) in areas that are sensitive to climate variability in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The five chosen indices were: net profit, agronomic nitrogen use efficiency (ANUE), water use efficiency (WUE), total amount, and global warming potential (GWP) of greenhouse gas (GHG). The goal of this study is to provide scientific evidence for local policymakers to use in selecting the most suitable rice cropping systems to maximize economic profits while adapting to climate change. The results showed that net profit was $171.4 per hectare higher for DRCS than for SRCS in the study region. In addition, output per unit nitrogen usage was $0.25 per kg N higher for DRCS than for SRCS. Net profit would increase if DRCS replaced SRCS, and the maximum amplitude of increase in net profit for this replacement occurred under the settings of 150 kg ha −1 nitrogen fertilizer level and continuous irrigation when the paddy water layer started to fade. On the other hand, annual variation in net profit for SRCS was consistently smaller than DRCS, regardless of changes in nitrogen fertilizer level and irrigation regime settings. SRCS showed better WUE than DRCS in both rainfed and irrigated situations, as well as lower seasonal CH4 and N2O emissions during the study period. Therefore, we conclude that SRCS is superior to DRCS for the sake of maximizing economic profit while maintaining sustainable agriculture in areas that are sensitive to climate variability in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
... The northern limit of double cropping (NLDC), defined as the northern limit of the spatial distribution of the double-cropping system, is an important representation of the spatial-temporal dynamics of the double-cropping system. Studies have shown that crop production in China would benefit from increasing the amount of cropland covered by double-and triple-cropping systems [10]. Double-cropping data is a critical input layer for many crop models, which can provide critical support for crop yield and production prediction as well as food security scenario analysis. ...
... Moreover, investigation of cropland where cropping intensity has changed will help policymakers understand the causes and responses to improve the intensive use of cropland, further increase food production, and contribute to SDG. Therefore, understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of NLDC is of great significance for assessing food production security [10], closing the food demand gap [1], and improving ecosystem and human health [11,12]. ...
... In the past 50 years , the increase of annual accumulated temperature above 10 • C (AAT10), the advance of the starting dates of temperature above 10 • C (SDT10), and the delay of the ending dates of temperature above 10 • C (EDT10) in most parts of China have resulted in the PNLDC moving 150 km [14]. During the period 1961-2010, mean annual accumulated temperature above 0 • (AAT0) in China increased by 64.4 • C day per decade, which caused the PNLDC to move in a northwest direction, especially in northeast China (Liaoning Province) and north China (Hebei and Shanxi Provinces) [10]. These studies all reflect the response of cropping intensity to climate change and reveal the northward shift of PNLDC, but they do not reflect the real regional farming system because PNLDC is based on the actual local climate conditions, but farmers tend to follow the traditional pattern (past climate conditions) when planting [8]. ...
Article
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Double cropping is an important cropping system in China, with more than half of China’s cropland adopting the practice. Under the background of global climate change, agricultural policies, and changing farming practices, double-cropping area has changed substantially. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics of double cropping is poorly understood. A better understanding of these dynamics is necessary for the northern limit of double cropping (NLDC) to ensure food security in China and the world and to achieve zero hunger, the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG). Here, we developed a phenology-based algorithm to identify double-cropping fields by analyzing time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images during the period 2000–2020 using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. We then extracted the NLDC using the kernel density of pixels with double cropping and analyzed the spatial-temporal dynamics of NLDC using the Fishnet method. We found that our algorithm accurately extracted double-cropping fields, with overall, user, and producer accuracies and Kappa coefficients of 95.97%, 96.58%, 92.21%, and 0.91, respectively. Over the past 20 years, the NLDC generally trended southward (the largest movement was 66.60 km) and eastward (the largest movement was 109.52 km). Our findings provide the scientific basis for further development and planning of agricultural production in China.
... Studies that have assessed the crop productivity in the context of climate change emphasize that the changes in future crop production related to climate variables would possibly have a major influence on regional as well as global food production (Byakatonda et al. 2018;Liu et al. 2017;Yang et al. 2015). The influence of climate change on crop yield varies in different regions; the production may increase in some regions, while decrease in other and this variation is plausibly attributed to the location and irrigation application (Byakatonda et al. 2018;Yang et al. 2015). ...
... Studies that have assessed the crop productivity in the context of climate change emphasize that the changes in future crop production related to climate variables would possibly have a major influence on regional as well as global food production (Byakatonda et al. 2018;Liu et al. 2017;Yang et al. 2015). The influence of climate change on crop yield varies in different regions; the production may increase in some regions, while decrease in other and this variation is plausibly attributed to the location and irrigation application (Byakatonda et al. 2018;Yang et al. 2015). The crop yield under the future climate projections could also increase due to elevated CO 2 concentrations and temperature projections, under the assumption of abundant water; however, the rise in temperature in the future is expected to alter the hydrologic cycle and increase the water stress conditions (Kant et al. 2012;Kimball and Idso 1983). ...
Article
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The temporal variability of rainfall in rainfed regions is one of the main factors for their low agricultural productivity. The future climate projections show an increased variability of rainfall, thus further impacting the rainfed agriculture. The change in rainfall pattern is expected to alter the cropping period and making the crop sowing date critical to mitigate crop failure. However, with enhanced temporal variability of rainfall, arriving at an optimal crop sowing date is a challenging task. One of the widely adopted measure to improve the agricultural productivity in the rainfed regions is water harvesting structures (WHS). This study evaluates the ability of the WHS in absorbing the shock of the temporal variability of the rainfall on the agricultural productivity. In addition, the efficacy of the structures in improving the agricultural productivity in the future climate projections is also evaluated. The proposed analysis is performed over Kondepi watershed in Andhra Pradesh, India, where water conservation measures are implemented by Government and Non-Government Organizations. The results of the study show that the WHS can minimize the sensitivity of the agricultural productivity to the crop sowing date. The extended availability of water in WHS resulted in removing the relationship between crop sowing date and crop productivity, thus exhibiting the ability of WHS in dams in absorbing the shock caused by the temporal variability of the rainfall. Further, the agricultural productivity was found to be increasing due to the presence of WHS in both current and future climate conditions.
... Changes in crop phenology, climatic patterns, and the resources necessary for production are all factors affecting yield. Rising temperatures can dramatically affect multiple cropping systems, in turn severely impacting food security (Yang et al. 2015). ...
... Food security is an extremely important issue in China, which accounts for 19% of the world's population while only having access to 8% of global arable land (Yang et al. 2015). Agriculture is a vital industry in China; though it accounts for only a small share of GDP, it employs more than 300 million farmers. ...
Article
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Climate variability and changes threaten agriculture. In response, farmers have been forced to adjust farming practices according to locally available options. Ethnoecological knowledge of surrounding environmental events inform such adjustments. This study aims to explore observed changes in the crop calendar and changes in crop yield as response to climatic variability to support adjusting the local crop calendar. Interviews with local leaders and group discussions with farmers were organized. Climatic indices such as growing degree days (GDD) and crop evapotranspiration (ETc) were calculated and regressed with crop production data (1988–2017) from Taxkorgan County of Xinjiang, China, using the partial least square regression (PLS) technique. Survey data revealed that the sowing dates of important crops began earlier than previous decades. Spatial data showed that the growing season advanced 3.2 days per decade. PLS results suggest that GDD and ETc significantly affect crop yield. GDD during the growth period had a significant positive impact, indicating that recent warming is beneficial for crop yields in these regions. ETc during the growth period mostly had a negative impact, suggesting the need for ample water to improve crop yields in the context of further warming. The current shift in sowing is corroborated by early heat accumulation, and crop calendar adjustments can reasonably increase yields. Our results are applicable to agricultural decisions at the farm level following site-specific fieldwork. Optimal planting dates can be determined by combining results from our study and other suitable farming practices to strengthen the resilience of local ecological calendars to climate change.
... Second, precipitation positively affects China's agriculture, and an additional 100 mm of annual rainfall increases GDP by approximately 0.82%. In effect, the extant industry-level research on climate-economic relationships, especially for China, mainly focuses on agriculture (Wang et al., 2009;Xiong et al., 2012;Asseng et al., 2013;Yang et al., 2015). While actually China's industry is more affected by higher temperature, and an additional 1℃ of annual warming is associated with a 2.57% lower economic output, nearly double the corresponding effect on agriculture. ...
... The in-depth research on the historical climate-economic relationship is therefore beneficial for filling this gap and contributes to reshaping the simulated future climate-economic interactions with historical evidence. Last, we incorporate the estimated climate-economic relationships into different IAMs and make multi-model comparisons and projections on the future impacts of climate change: if the impact is dramatically negative, then aggressive policies (both mitigation and adaptation) may be needed to hedge against the potential risks (Ju et al., 2013;Chen et al., 2013;Stevanović et al., 2016); if the role of global warming is not significant, then governments' response will be correspondingly conservative (Deschênes & Greenstone, 2007;Wei et al., 2014;Yang et al., 2015). Our results indicate a robust historical relationship between climate change and economic production in the past 30 years and project a long-term role of climate change in economic development until the end of this century, which establishes an effective basis for China's climate policy making. ...
Article
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There are still many uncertainties regarding the possible influences of global climate change in the mid-latitude regions, owing to rather limited research and lack of empirical evidence. This paper systematically evaluates the economic impact of climate variation by constructing a 27-year panel dataset of 274 prefecture cities and 816 weather stations in China. Our results document some significant climate-economic relationships, with the increase of 1 °C-temperature, 100 mm-rainfall, and 1%-humidity associated with a 0.78% decrease, 0.86% increase and 1.34% decrease in output, respectively. Higher temperature damages are reflected in less-developed regions, while the positive impact of rainfall mainly appear in more-developed regions. Using integrated assessment models, we project that the model-average climate damage of China may account for up to 4.23 percent of GDP by 2100, based on a nonlinear historical climate-economic interaction.
... Regarding natural conditions, hydrothermal conditions are the basic influencing factors for the multiple croppings of cultivated land, and the soil texture and the relief degree of the land surface also have important effects on the multiple croppings of cultivated land. Studies have shown that the realization of a multiple-cropping system depends largely on temperature and precipitation-sufficient accumulated temperature and rainfall are necessary to realize multiple croppings [48,[67][68][69]. Affected by climate change, the northern limits of multiple-cropping systems have moved northward, and the projected area of cultivated land for multiple croppings may significantly expand during the 21st century in China [67]. ...
... Studies have shown that the realization of a multiple-cropping system depends largely on temperature and precipitation-sufficient accumulated temperature and rainfall are necessary to realize multiple croppings [48,[67][68][69]. Affected by climate change, the northern limits of multiple-cropping systems have moved northward, and the projected area of cultivated land for multiple croppings may significantly expand during the 21st century in China [67]. Notably, the soil texture is closely related to soil aeration and water and fertilizer conservation. ...
Article
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With the continuous and rapid rise of urbanization in China, land use transition research has been carried out extensively. Multiple cropping is the content of land use recessive morphology research, and it is also a common agricultural system in China. Accordingly, further research on multiple cropping index (MCI) can enrich the land use transition research and help to evaluate China’s food security. In order to examine the spatiotemporal changes and factors influencing the MCI of cultivated land in China, we collected MODIS remote sensing image data and land use classification data and conducted a remote sensing inversion on China’s MCI from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. The spatial distributions and evolution processes of the MCI were explored through spatial mapping, statistical analysis, and processing with the Geographic Information System; moreover, the influencing factors of MCI were explored quantitatively with principal component regression. The results were as follows: (1) at the provincial scale, the average MCI across Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu was high; meanwhile, the average MCI across Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai was low. Between 2000 and 2015, the number of provinces with low MCI increased gradually, and the average MCI decreased greatly in the southern provinces. (2) At the county scale, the Taihang Mountains, Qinling Mountains, and Hengduan Mountains formed the boundary of China’s single cropping and multiple cropping indices. Dynamic changes in China’s MCI were obvious, and the number of counties with MCI change values lower than 0 increased gradually. Last, (3) natural conditions, nonagricultural process, cultivated land quality, and agricultural intensification demonstrated different degrees of impact on the MCI; in particular, the influence of nonagricultural industries, pesticides, and agricultural plastic film on the MCI proved especially important. Future research should strengthen the existing work on related transformations in farmers’ livelihoods, especially in terms of the return of rural labor force, the body of agricultural production, agricultural ecological issues, and the balance between increased crop production and reduced environmental pollution. In addition, agricultural policy design should pay more attention to cultivated land quality, the farmer who cultivates the land, and the multiple cropping potential of cultivated land.
... Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable fields to climate change [6]. Climate change, characterized by warming temperature, has produced a series of significant impacts on agricultural resource utilization, farming system distribution, and crop production [7][8][9][10]. For example, changes in temperature over the past decades have accelerated the phenological development and advanced maturity of rice [11], thus shortening the rice growth period and decreasing the yield [12,13]. ...
... Most researchers select thermal instead of rainfall and sunshine indicators when considering rice suitability distribution [29,39,47]. Yang et al., (2015) analyzed the northern boundary of double rice in China based on the indicator of the annual accumulated temperature of above 10 • C [9]. Ye et al., (2015) evaluated the suitability of various rice cropping systems by using the growing season utilization rate [28]. ...
Article
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Understanding the effect of climate warming and technological progress on crop production systems is crucial for developing climate adaptation strategies. This study presents a methodological framework with which to assess the suitability of the double rice cropping system in Southern China and the effects of crop management and climate warming on its distribution. The results indicate that the isolated effects of climate warming have led to the northward and westward expansions of double rice northern limits over the past six decades and an increase in suitable areas by 4.76 Mha. Under the isolated effect of crop management, the northern limits of the medium- and late-maturity double rice changed significantly due to the increased accumulated temperature required caused by varietal replacement and planting date change, which moved an average of 123 and 134 km southward, respectively. A combined scenario analysis indicated that crop management could offset the effects of climate warming and push the northern limits southward, reducing the overall suitable area by 1.31 Mha. Varietal replacement and other crop management methods should also be appropriately considered in addition to climate warming to develop locally adapted agricultural management strategies.
... Araya et al. (2015) used APSIM-maize and DSSAT-Maize models to assess the impact of climate change on future maize yield in south-western Ethiopia by using the data of 20 general circulation models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Yang et al. (2015) estimated the impacts of the change in the crop planting areas of multiple cropping systems in China under future climate by using APSIM model. Waffa and Benoit (2015) conducted a study to simulate wheat yield under two climate change scenarios (A2 and B1) in the Tiaret region, Algeria, using DSSAT-wheat model for adaptation measures and mitigation. ...
Chapter
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According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the likely increase in global mean surface temperature by the end of the twenty-first century relative to 1986–2005 is 0.3–1.7 °C under the most stringent mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions scenario (RCP2.6), 1.1–2.6 °C under intermediate scenario RCP4.5, 1.4–3.1 °C under RCP6.0 and 2.6–4.8 °C under very high emissions scenario RCP8.5 (IPCC, in: Core Writing Team, Pachauri and Meyer, eds., Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, Geneva, 151 pp., 2014). As agricultural production is largely influenced by the climatic parameters, any changes in climate would pose a high risk to the global food security. Therefore, an accurate assessment of the impact of climate change is required for development of the best adaptation and mitigation strategies and proper management of natural resources. Geospatial technologies such as remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS), Global Positioning System (GPS) and computer-based dynamic crop simulation models (CSMs) have been widely used for monitoring the growth and yield parameters of crops and simulating the plant processes under different climatic, soil and management conditions. Crop simulation models that simulate the relationship between plants and their environments are one of the most important tools used to study the potential impacts of climate change on crop production. But a major limitation of these models is the lack of spatial information, which reduces their actual application on the regional scale because most of these models are simulated at the field scale. The application of such models can be improved if they are integrated with geospatial technologies that provide spatial information on crop conditions at larger scale. This chapter describes the different methods by which geospatial technology and crop growth models can be integrated for improved decision-making under current and future climate.
... Zone I of the Indus delta is primarily a high-temperature region. Results indicate that major and negative impact of temperature and rainfall fluctuations on wheat crop yield are negative in this area (Yang et al., 2015). ...
... This region experienced high temperature and uneven precipitation trends in recent decades compared to other regions of China (Jingyong et al. 2005;Li et al. 2014;Liu et al. 2004). Some studies reported an increased warming trend of temperature (0.38°C) in the last five decades (Yang et al. 2015;Zhang et al. 2016;Zhi-juan et al. 2009). Preceding studies documented that the cropping system has been affected by the warming climate and it extends the planting limits from 48°N to 52°N . ...
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Evidence revealed that climate change has a significant impact on grain production in China. Northeast China has abundant agricultural resources which can make the maximum contribution to national food security. This study examines the effects of climate variability and price anomalies on grain yield and land use in Northeast China. The analysis showed that different climate variability phase combinations based on Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation present variations in signals and different magnitude of effects over the study area. The results revealed that land use by total grain crop negatively responds to the increase in price anomalies in Heilongjiang and Jilin Provinces. To assess the impact of climate change on crop yield model, the yield models under dynamically downscaled regional climate models revealed that climate variables significantly contribute to total grain yields. In the near future, minimum temperature (− 0.26 °C under CanESM2-4.5, − 4.42 °C under HadGEM2-ES), maximum temperature (− 2.82 °C under CanESM2-4.5, − 0.84 under HadGEM2-ES), and precipitation (ranged from 3.59 to 11.10%) positively contribute to total grain yields under both models. Overall, analysis showed that climate change has a significant contribution to grain production. In conclusion, the implications for future research and policymakers have been addressed. Particularly, the importance of considering regional differences in adaptation planning in agricultural regions was also considered.
... Crop modelling has become an accepted tool to assess the land productivity with different crop systems (Kirkegaard et al., 2014;Wang et al., 2008). The APSIM modeling framework (Holzworth et al., 2014;Keating et al., 2003;Wang et al., 2002) is one of the most used agricultural systems models to simulate the growth, yield and resource use efficiency of major crops (Liu et al., 2013a;Mohanty et al., 2012;Sun et al., 2016;Wang et al., 2018;Yang et al., 2013Yang et al., , 2015 and diverse cropping systems, including the impact of different management practices like rotations, fallowing, tillage, and grazing (Malone et al., 2007;Pembleton et al., 2013;Thorburn et al., 2001;Zeleke, 2017). APSIM has the ability to simulate crop growth and yield in intercropping systems (Carberry et al., 1996;Chimonyo et al., 2016;Dimes et al., 2011;Keating et al., 2003;Nelson and Cramb, 1998;Robertson et al., 2004;Wang et al., 2002). ...
Article
Intercropping of two or more crop species increases the efficiency of resource use and often produces a greater yield per unit land area. The relative efficiency of intercropping depends on row configuration, but there is a shortage of modelling-based evaluation of alternative intercropping options due to the inadequacy of standard process-based crop models to simulate resource capture, growth and yield formation when the canopy is spatially structured in strips. We implemented a light interception model for strip crops into the APSIM Classic model and combined it with a quasi-Bayesian approach to derive the model parameters to simulate crop growth and grain yield in maize-soybean strip intercropping. We used 4 years of field data for 5 different row configurations to derive key model parameters for simulation of light interception, LAI dynamics, biomass growth and grain yield of maize and soybean intercrops. Key model parameters (e.g. RUE, k etc.) were found to change with row-spacing and configuration, posing challenges to simulate different configurations with a single parameter set. The potential ranges of these key parameters were derived by constraining the model to observed data. The model can be potentially used to evaluate impact of planting configurations on productivity of strip intercropping systems, but the variability of key model parameters among configuration treatments calls for further in-depth research to improve modelling physiology of strip intercrops.
... The elevation in China increased from east to west. Moreover, climate pattern, cropping systems, and agricultural technologies have greater diversity among various regions (Gao et al., 2019;Li et al., 2016;Liu et al., 2013;Yang et al., 2015;Zhang et al., 2014). China is the world's second-largest producer and consumer of maize; consequently, maize production in this country has important implications for global food security. ...
Article
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Climate patterns, cropping systems, and agricultural technologies have greater diversity among various regions in China. Knowledge of the spatial–temporal patterns of solar radiation during the maize growing season is essential for farmers and extension technicians in their optimization of cropping choices and development of adaptation strategies for climate change. In this study, based on the observed solar radiation in six subregions of China, we analyzed the spatial distributions and temporal trends of incident solar radiation (SRi), beam solar radiation (SRb), and diffuse solar radiation (SRd) during 1961–2014. From 1961 to 1984, the annual SRi in most areas showed a downward trend, with a median value of −27.8 MJ m−2 year⁻¹, which is primarily due to a decrease in SRb. However, after 1985, 76% of locations had reversed to brightening. This finding is primarily due to an increase in SRd. The trends in SRi during the whole growing season (WGS) of maize changed by −12.4% to 18.3% during the past 30 years, and 74% of the selected locations showed an increasing trend. At most of the stations, SRb showed a decreasing trend during the WGS, and SRd showed an increasing trend. The trends of SRi, SRb, and SRd during the vegetative period and reproductive period of maize have generally followed a trend similar to the WGSs. Therefore, we conclude that annual solar radiation changed from dimming to brightening from 1961 to 2014 in China. Solar brightening occurred during the maize growing season, which was mainly caused by an increase in diffuse radiation.
... Favorable effects of climate change have been reported for some regions because of northwards shift of maize cultivation in the U.S. (Hatfield et al. 2011), rice in China (Hijmans 2007) and wheat in Russia (Ivanov and Kiryushin 2009). Yang et al. (2015) found that northern limits of multiple cropping systems have been shifted northward, expanding the projected area of cultivated land for triple-cropping systems in China. The northern shifts resulted in a 2.2% (~8,000,000 t) increase in national production of three major crops (maize, wheat, and rice) from 1981 to 2010, and may cause a positive impact on the crop production in China if concomitant changes adapted in multiple cropping systems take place. ...
... Accumulated temperature is an important climatic element that determines the potential yield of maize (Kukal & Irmak, 2018). The heat sources in northern China has increased significantly due to climate change (Hu et al., 2015;Piao et al., 2010), which has caused the maize planting boundary to gradually expand Northward Yang et al., 2015). Variety replacement is one of the most effective ways to adapt to climate change in agriculture . ...
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How to allocate heat resources during yield formation and grains drying in the field to ensure food security while reducing the grain moisture content (GMC) is an important issue in maize production in China. In this study, we established three production scenarios (traditional production (TPS, GMC>30% at harvest), mid‐moisture grain harvest (MMHS, GMC≤25% at harvest), and low‐moisture grain harvest (LMHS, GMC≤20% at harvest)). Five varieties (DMY1, FK139, DK159, XY335, and JK968) were selected as model varieties to establish a grain drying prediction model, and the model prediction accuracy was good (RMSE = 2.96%‐4.04%, R2 = 0.408‐0.733). Results revealed that the production loss of the LMHS was 23.7% compared to the TPS, while the MMHS had a production loss of 6.5%. By replacing new varieties with high yield potential and fast grain drying rate, even small production increases can be achieved in MMHS. By adjusting the layout, it was possible to achieve 25% GMC in Inner Mongolia, which can promote the mechanical grain harvesting. However, the conditions for further reducing GMC (20%) at harvest are not yet available, and this requires more detailed future research. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
... In the current study, the crop photosynthesis rate of the potato-broad bean-winter wheat rotation system was significantly decreased when the temperature increased by 0.5-2.0°C in the podding stage of broad bean and the heading, blooming and booting stages of winter wheat. However, excessive warming will decelerate or inhibit crop photosynthesis and, thus, influence crop growth Yang et al., 2015). In the grain-filling and milk-maturing stages of spring wheat, warming results in decrease in the leaf's net photosynthesis rate and stomatal conductance, increase in the transpiration rate and decrease in photosynthesis and dry matter accumulation (Zhao and Yu, 2008). ...
Article
Global warming will directly influence agricultural production and present new challenges for food security in semiarid regions of China. A warming experiment was conducted in Guyuan, China using infrared ray radiators to study the impact of warming on crop growth, yield and quality of a potato–broad bean–winter wheat crop rotation system. Warming significantly affected the crop photosynthesis rates of the potato–broad bean–winter wheat rotation system. In the podding stage of broad bean and the heading, blooming and booting stages of winter wheat, the photosynthesis rate was significantly decreased when the temperature increased by 0.5–2.0°C. The growing period of the potato–broad bean–winter wheat rotation system was shortened by 20–40 days per 3-year-period, and the fallow period was prolonged by 4–13 days per 3-year-period. The water use efficiency of the potato–broad bean–winter wheat rotation decreased by 8.6% when the temperature increased by 1.02.0°C. The yield of the potato–broad bean–winter wheat rotation increased by 6.1–7.7% when the temperature increased by 0.5–1.0°C. However, yield decreased 12.9–13.4% when temperature increased by 1.0–2.0°C. Potato protein significantly decreased by 9.3–17.6% and the winter wheat fat significantly decreased by 6.7% when the temperature increased by 0.5–2.0°C. The results indicate that global warming could seriously affect the crop growth, yield and water use of the potato–broad bean–winter wheat rotation in semiarid regions of China.
... Generally, there are the excellent comprehensive traits (including processing quality, appearance quality, cooking and eating properties, and nutritional qualities) of grain quality in high-quality rice, which meet the grade III national standard at least (GB/T17891-1999). High-quality rice can influence the market status and may increase production benefits (Yang et al., 2015;Qian, 2017). Therefore, breeding high-quality rice varieties is imperative. ...
Article
High-quality rice varieties are planted widely in southern China. However, the changes in grain quality in the different high-quality rice varieties released in recent years are unclear. This study compared the grain quality changes and status of those varieties and presented proposals for future breeding. In the past 11 years, high-quality indica has significantly improved chalky rice rate (CRR), chalkiness degree (CD) but decreased head rice rate (HRR); amylose content (AC), gel consistency (GC) and length-to-width ratio (LWR) were improved only in indica hybrid rice. Most high-quality rice varieties grown in southern China are primarily indica rice. In contrast to indica rice, japonica rice had increased milling recovery, cooking and eating qualities (CEQ), but worsened significantly the physical appearance. For japonica rice, hybrid varieties exhibited a marked improvement in the rice quality for lower AC, higher GC and LWR compared with inbred varieties. A higher grain quality was observed in inbred varieties for indica rice due to lower CRR, CD and AC, higher HRR and GC. Our results suggested that we should be focused on improving the physical appearance quality for japonica rice and milling recovery, particularly CEQ for indica rice, for future high-quality rice breeding.
... APSIM, MARXAN) that can simulate trade-off interactions among several ESs, which limits the development of optimization models (Lautenbach et al., 2013;Balbi et al., 2015;Garcia et al., 2018;Martínez-López et al., 2019). Yang et al. (2015) calibrated and validated APSIM to simulate the growth and yields of wheat in the North China Plain, and of rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (which includes the Taihu Lake Basin). They noted the model's robustness when applied to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the wheat-rice system. ...
Article
This study examines rice-wheat agroecosystems in the Taihu Lake Basin: one of China's largest commercial grain-farming areas and a region that has faced severe deterioration in water quality. Spatiotemporal changes over the period 1986-2015 in four key ecosystem services (ESs) - grain yield, nitrogen loss, N2O emission, and soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation - were examined by applying the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) across the basin at county level. Two straw return modes (namely, full straw return versus no return) and three fertilizer-use reduction modes (-5%, -10%, and -20%) were set up to generate six combined scenarios, to propose pathways that reduce the variability of grain production and improve water quality by reducing loss of nitrogen (N loss) - in consideration of the Basin's vital role in agricultural production and the need to protect water quality. Results show that annual grain yield and net five-year difference in SOC accumulation exhibited an overall downward trend from 1986 to 2015, while N2O emission and N loss increased. Two pairs of ESs showed desirable synergies (increasing grain yield and increasing SOC accumulation; decreasing N2O emission and decreasing N loss), encompassing 45.8% and 2.4% of total cultivated land area respectively. Another two pairs exhibited desirable trade-offs (increasing SOC accumulation and decreasing N loss; increasing SOC accumulation and decreasing N2O emission), accounting for 19.0%, and 2.4% of total cultivated land area respectively. There was considerable overlap within counties, which showed high values of grain yield, N2O emission, nitrogen loss, and SOC accumulation in the Basin; but values were relatively high in the east and relatively low in the west. Fertilizer use has significant positive correlations with grain yield and SOC accumulation, and it reduces N loss and N2O emission. Straw return was predicted to raise grain yields and net five-year difference in SOC accumulation and to reduce N loss, but also to increase N2O emissions. Recommended strategies to reduce N loss and stabilize grain supply in the study area are 1) reducing fertilizer use by 20% in areas where N application was above 490 kg N/ha, and 2) implementing straw return and reducing fertilizer use by 5% for areas where N application ranged between 380 and 490 kg N/ha.
... Theorists (Mottet et al., 2017), explain the theoretical background of investment theory that is associated with agriculture crop production, which however minimizes the value of spending and wages on crop production due to harsh climatic changes and emission of CO2 in the environment. Availability of electricity can somehow increase the crop production due to functioning of tube wells, irrigation systems (Yang et al., 2015) and other harvesting tools that requires electricity to develop crop yield. Thus, the following hypotheses are proposed: H3: Climate change has a significant impact on production in agriculture. ...
... However, relatively little work has been done to update the MCS indices considering the current crop varieties and technological improvements in China. Impacts of climate change on cropping systems have been conducted for a long time, while most studies focused on crop plant physiology, crop yield, crop modeling, and climate scenarios, limited reports have payed attention to cropping North limits (Keating et al., 2003;Yang et al., 2015;Zhao, Yang, & Sun, 2018). Previous studies showed that the northern limits of cropping systems in China have moved Northward and Westward, both the potential winter wheat and paddy rice planting areas in China have expanded due to global warming (Yang, Liu, & Chen, 2011. ...
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The multiple cropping systems (MCS) have been crucial for China's food security due to its limited arable land and the increased population for hundreds of years. Global warming has significantly affected MCS in China during recent decades. However, whether global warming has influenced the MCS in China under technical improvement is still uncertain and has received great attention. Thus, the current study aims to evaluate the impacts of global warming within the improvements of crop cultivars on MCS in China and analyze the changes in cropland and actual cropping area during past 5 decades. Our results showed that the cumulative temperature above 0°C for the double‐cropping system (DCS) and triple‐cropping system (TCS) respectively increased by 400°C and 100°C compared to the values in the 1980s. The northern limit of the DCS shifted southward, while the northern limit of the TCS moved northward. The cropland of the single‐cropping system and triple‐cropping system increased while the cropland of the DCS decreased. Specifically, the winter wheat area, which represents the DCS in northern China, decreased during the past decades. Similarly, the double–rice cropping system area, which represents the TCS in southern China, decreased as it was partly replaced by single‐rice cropping system. Our study indicated that the cropping intensity in China decreased during past decades, and the full use of MCS will lead to high grain production potential in the transition area. The results will be beneficial for optimizing the cropping distribution across China and enhance the food security. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
... In contrast, maize and rice production in China account for 21.4% and 30.0% of global production respectively (FAO, 2017). As a large agricultural country with more than 1.3 billion people, China must spare no effort to maintain and increase its grain crop production in order to meet the demands of a continuously increasing population in the face of shrinking arable cropland area (Yang et al., 2015). ...
Article
Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts can provide essential information to make conclusive agricultural policies and to conduct investments. Recent studies have used different machine learning techniques to develop such yield forecast systems for single crops at regional scales. However, no study has used multiple sources of environmental predictors (climate, soil, and vegetation) to forecast yields for three major crops in China. In this study, we adopted 7-year observed crop yield data (2013-2019) for three major grain crops (wheat, maize, and rice) across China, and three major data sets including climate, vegetation indices, and soil properties were used to develop a dynamic yield forecasting system based on the random forest (RF) model. The RF model showed good performance for estimating yields of all three crops with correlation coefficient (r) higher than 0.75 and normalized root means square errors (nRMSE) lower than 18.0%. Our results also showed that crop yields can be satisfactorily forecasted at one to three months prior to harvest. The optimum lead time for yield forecasting depended on crop types. In addition, we found the major predictors influencing crop yield varied between crops. In general, solar radiation and vegetation indices (especially during jointing to milk development stages) were identified as the main predictor for winter wheat; vegetation indices (throughout the growing season) and drought (especially during emergence to tasseling stages) were the most important predictors for spring maize; soil moisture (throughout the growing season) was the dominant predictor for summer maize, late rice, and mid rice; precipitation (especially during booting to heading stages) was the main predictor for early rice. Our study provides insights into practical crop yield forecasting and the understanding of yield response to environmental conditions at a large scale across China. The methods undertaken in this research can be easily implemented in other countries with available information on climate, soil, and vegetation conditions.
... The crop maturity period and multiple-crop index reflect the farming system used in agricultural production and determine the scale of planting [48]. The planting scale of multi-cropping on the same land in a certain period of time is often larger than that of a single crop on the same land [49]. ...
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Background Crop residues are an important raw material for bioenergy. There is, however, obvious seasonality in crop harvests, and thus, a continuous supply of crop residues and its respective influencing factors should be investigated. Methods In this paper, the impacts of geographical climatic conditions, characteristics of crops and the macroeconomic status exerted on the continuity of crop residue supply were analysed. Likewise, the effects of various factors on the supply of crop residues were examined. Results The results indicate that planting scale, crop diversity, climatic conditions, and topography have a significantly positive impact on a continuous crop residue supply, whereas the planting structure, temperature square term, energy pressure, and the economic development level have a significantly negative one. Finally, a regression-based decomposition method was used to measure the contribution rate of each variable onto the inequalities in the continuous supply of crop residues, which confirms that the impact of characteristics of crops on its continuous supply was the highest. The economic development level is the most important factor that affects the inequalities in the continuity of crop residue supply. Conclusions The above results were achieved by using different measurement methods, and based upon the findings obtained, this paper proposes policies and suggestions for ensuring sustainable and bioenergy-oriented crop cultivation.
... In turn, research conducted in China does not give unequivocal results. As a result of the relocation of wheat, corn and rice crops, an increase in the production of these plants is expected (Yang et al., 2015), while without taking into account crop displacement, a decrease in corn and soybean yields is forecast (Chen, Chen, and Xu, 2016). From a global perspective it is anticipated that the rate of increase in total crop productivity until 2050 will persist due to technological and agronomic improvements. ...
... Also, a short-duration crop such as a legume or pulse in a cropping system might only be grown as a cover crop or forage crop and that is another source of potential overestimation of the intensification potential. The potential to increasing cropping intensity might further be limited by soil degradation (Gibbs and Salmon, 2015), biotic stresses (Beddow et al., 2015), and the lack of seeds, fertilizer, infrastructure and market incentives (Lambin et al., 2001;VanWey et al., 2013), processing and storage infrastructure for some farmers, technologies and rainfall variability and climate change (Arvor et al., 2014;Cohn et al., 2016;Liu et al., 2013;Yang et al., 2015) just to name a few. ...
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Multiple cropping, defined as harvesting more than once a year, is a widespread land management strategy in tropical and subtropical agriculture. It is a way of intensifying agricultural production and diversifying the crop mix for economic and environmental benefits. Here we present the first global gridded data set of multiple cropping systems and quantify the physical area of more than 200 systems, the global multiple cropping area and the potential for increasing cropping intensity. We use national and sub-national data on monthly crop-specific growing areas around the year 2000 (1998–2002) for 26 crop groups, global cropland extent and crop harvested areas to identify sequential cropping systems of two or three crops with non-overlapping growing seasons. We find multiple cropping systems on 135 million hectares (12% of global cropland) with 85 million hectares in irrigated agriculture. 34%, 13% and 10% of the rice, wheat and maize area, respectively are under multiple cropping, demonstrating the importance of such cropping systems for cereal production. Harvesting currently single cropped areas a second time could increase global harvested areas by 87–395 million hectares, which is about 45% lower than previous estimates. Some scenarios of intensification indicate that it could be enough land to avoid expanding physical cropland into other land uses but attainable intensification will depend on the local context and the crop yields attainable in the second cycle and its related environmental costs.
... MDA content can indicate the level of membrane injury in plant cells in response to stress (Zhou et al., 2018). Thermal conditions can also be affected by climate warming, which may favor plant production (Liu et al., 2019b;Yang et al., 2015). Moreover, soil microbial activities such as the production of extracellular enzymes, are also sensitive to climate warming (Jing et al., 2014;Sinsabaugh and Follstad Shah, 2012). ...
Article
Climate warming has been proposed to increase primary production of natural grasslands in cold regions. However, how climate warming affects the production of artificial pastures in cold regions remains unknown. To address this question, we used open-top chambers to simulate warming in a major artificial pasture (forage oat) on the cold Tibetan Plateau for three consecutive years. Surprisingly, climate warming decreased aboveground and belowground biomass production by 23.1%–44.8% and 35.0%–46.5%, respectively, without a significant impact on their ratio. The adverse effects on biomass production could be attributed to the adverse effects of high-temperatures on leaf photosynthesis through increases in water vapor pressure deficit (by 0.05–0.10 kPa), damages to the leaf oxidant system, as indicated by a 46.6% increase in leaf malondialdehyde content, as well as reductions in growth duration (by 4.7–6.7 days). The adverse effects were also related to exacerbated phosphorus limitation, as indicated by decreases in soil available phosphorus and plant phosphorus concentrations by 31.9%–40.7% and 14.3%–49.4%, respectively, and increases in the plant nitrogen: phosphorus ratio by 19.2%–108.3%. The decrease in soil available phosphorus concentration could be attributed to reductions in soil phosphatase activities (by 9.6%–18.5%). The findings of this study suggest an urgent need to advance agronomic techniques and cultivate more resilient forage genotypes to meet the increasing demand of forage for feeding livestock and to reduce grazing damage to natural grasslands on the warming-sensitive Tibetan Plateau.
... The four major winter wheat-producing regions are: North China (NC, irrigated winter wheat, October through Jun), Huanghuaihai Region (HHH, irrigated winter wheat, October through June), Southwest China (SWC, rainfed winter wheat, November through June), and the Yangtze River Basin (YZ, rainfed winter wheat, November through June) (Fig. 1b). Crop rotation is a typical practice in southern China, mainly due to abundant heat resources (relatively high temperature) (Yang et al., 2015). Maize cultivation is in a single-cropping system in NEC, NC and SWC; double-cropping system in HHH and SWC; and triple-cropping system in SC. ...
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As a main tool for climate variability impact studies on agriculture, crop models are widely used for agricultural assessments. However, the accuracy of input data like radiation data fundamentally affects the reliability of the crop model outputs. In previous studies, estimated radiation was commonly used due to the scarcity of directly measured radiation, which introduced errors into the assessment results. In this study, by assuming the measured radiation data as the true values, we used four sources of estimated solar radiation values to analyze the underlying errors in the results based on estimated solar radiation. The results showed that the total estimated radiation during the crop growing season is all higher than the measured radiation, especially for winter wheat (6.6%∼14.8% for maize, and 18.7%∼34.0% for winter wheat). When using estimated radiation as input data, regardless of the source, the crop model overestimated the simulated crop yields for maize (13.8%∼23.6%) and winter wheat (37.3%∼65.4%) in China. The amplitude of such overestimation was relatively greater in the south than in the north, and relatively greater for winter wheat than for maize. As compared to using the measured radiation, the negative impact of climate variability on simulated crop yield was exaggerated when using estimated radiation except for reanalysis datasets (1.6%∼4% for maize, and 4.2%∼6.3% for winter wheat). Our study results provide scientific evidence of the importance of using accurate radiation data in agricultural impact analyses, and the previous related results may need to be re-evaluated.
... When properly adapting agricultural management practices, the natural resources in the potential growing season could be effectively utilized to improve yield production. Possible adaptive measures include adjusting the system of planting (Yang et al., 2015), changing cultivars Su et al., 2021), optimizing sowing dates (Zhang et al., 2018;Bai et al., 2020), and modifying water and fertilizer applications (Liu et al., 2016b). ...
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The Northeast China (NEC) accounts for more than 30% of the national total maize planted area (grain yield). Adjusting the sowing dates has been considered an effective measure to adapt to climate change, but there was little evidence that how well the producers had done. In this study, we used phenology observations at 67 stations from 1981 to 2014 to detect trends in actual sowing dates, then the agricultural production systems simulator, APSIM-Maize model, was used to assess the effects of changes in observed sowing dates on maize phenology and yields. During the past 34-year period, the actual maize sowing dates show a delaying tendency, at a rate of 1–6 days per decade, but there are significant fluctuations among years. For per day delay in the sowing dates, the whole growing season was shortened by 0.1%. Delaying sowing dates reduced the solar radiation interception during the vegetative period as well as the thermal time during the reproductive period. As a result, the overall maize potential yield was negatively affected in NEC; for per day delay in the sowing dates, the potential yield was decreased by 0.6%. By contrast, advancing sowing dates in some years led to increases in both the solar radiation interception during the vegetative period and the thermal time during the reproductive period. However, these increases showed various effects on the maize potential yield across different parts of the study region. We detected a positive effect of advancing sowing dates on maize potential yield in the high latitudes, at a rate of up to 1.6%. By contrast, in the low latitudes, the negative effect of advancing sowing dates on maize potential yield was dominant, at a rate of up to 2.7%.
... Decline in productivity is likely to be combined with an increase of the interannual yield variability due to climate extremes (Dono et al., 2016), and with a strong latitudinal gradient (Rosenzweig et al., 2013). In the northern hemisphere, which will benefit from the lengthening of the growing season, milder temperatures and wet conditions in the next decades, crop and grassland 45 productions are expected to rise (Yang et al., 2015). Conversely, lower latitudes are going to face a rise of drought frequencies with a decline of winter rainfall, accompanied by a potential decline in productivity (Stagge et al., 2017). ...
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The knowledge of the effects of climate change on agro-ecosystems is fundamental to identify local actions aimed to maintain productivity and reduce environmental issues. This study investigates the effects of climate perturbation on the European crop and grassland production systems, combining the finding from two biogeochemical models. Accurate and high-resolution management and pedoclimatic data has been employed. Results has been verified for the period 1978–2004 (historical period) and projected until 2099 with two divergent intensities IPPC’s climate projections, RCP4.5 and RCP8. We provided a detailed overview on productivity and the impacts on management (sowing dates, water demand, nitrogen use efficiency). Biogenic GHG budgets (N2O, CH4, CO2) were calculated, including an assessment of their sensitivity to the leading drivers, and the compilation of a net carbon budget over production systems. Results confirmed that a significant reduction of productivity is expected during 2050–2099, caused by the shortening of the length of the plant growing cycle associated to the rising temperatures. This effect was more pronounced for the more pessimistic climate scenario (-13 % for croplands and -7.7 % for grasslands) and for Mediterranean regions, confirming a regionally distributed impact of climate change. Non-CO2 GHG emissions were triggered by rising air temperatures and increased exponentially over the century, being often higher than the CO2 accumulation of the explored agro-ecosystems, which acted as potential C sinks. Emission factor for N2O was 1.82 ± 0.07 % during the historical period, rising up to 2.05 ± 0.11 % for both climate projections. The biomass removal (crop yield, residues exports, mowing and animal intake) converted croplands and grasslands into net C sources (236 ± 107 Tg CO2eq y-1 in the historical period), increasing of more than 20 % during the climate projections. Nonetheless, crop residues demonstrate to be an effective management strategy to overturn the C balance. Although with a marked latitudinal gradient, water demand will double over the next few decades in the European croplands, whereas the benefit in terms of yield will not contribute substantially to balance the C losses due to climate perturbation.
... China is the most populous country in the world, but has only 8% of the world's arable land to support 19% of the world's population (Yang et al., 2015). It is, therefore, crucial to safeguard China's food security for social stability and sustainable economic development. ...
Article
Maize (Zea mays L.) is a staple food in most parts of the world, and is also one of the most important food crops in China. Frequent occurrences of drought events can lead to summer maize drought disasters. The air relative humidity has the predominant superiority in spatio-temporal continuity compared to precipitation. In this study, meteorological data, phenophase observations, and disaster records of summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (the HHH Plain) were jointly used to establish a Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) to identify and characterize summer maize drought disasters and to provide support for summer maize drought monitoring, prevention, and mitigation. Results showed that the threshold values of SRHI10 (at ten-day scale) during the V0-VT (planting-tasseling) and VT-R6 (tasseling-physiological maturity) periods were −0.05 and −0.25, and the values of SRHI30 (at monthly scale) during the V0-VT and VT-R6 periods were −0.10 and −0.50, respectively. Both SRHI10 and SRHI30 could reasonably identify the actual drought conditions of summer maize in the HHH Plain. Validation with independent drought samples showed that SRHI10 was the most effective among SRHI10, SRHI30, and SPI10. The province-wide validation within 55 years also revealed that the drought of summer maize identified with SRHI10 was basically consistent with historical disaster records, with the average identification accuracy being of 94.0%. Additionally, SRHI10 could indicate the occurrence of drought relatively earlier than actual drought records during both the V0-VT and VT-R6 periods of summer maize. Therefore, the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of drought for summer maize in the HHH Plain were mapped based on SRHI10. Drought occurred in 38% and 25% of the years during the V0-VT and VT-R6 periods, respectively, from 1961 to 2015. The drought extent during the V0-VT period was greater than during the VT-R6 period in 64% of the study years, indicating that summer maize in the HHH Plain was more exposed to drought during the vegetative growth period. The spatial distribution pattern of drought severity increased from the south to north during the V0-VT period, while during the VT-R6 period it exhibited the same spatial pattern to drought frequency. The drought in both the V0-VT and VT-R6 periods of summer maize showed the increasing trend in most of the HHH Plain of China. SRHI10 can be a useful indicator for monitoring and assessing summer maize drought disasters at regional scale. This index can also provide a new method for agricultural drought analysis.
... They found that the contribution rates of temperature change to wheat and yield growth were 1.3% and 0.4%, respectively, and the effect of precipitation change was very small. Yang et al. [17] reported that rising temperatures had a positive impact on the productions of wheat, maize and rice in China. In addition, Bhatt et al. [18] reported that the warming trends of average temperature in the past few decades had a negative impact on yields of rice, corn and wheat in the Koshi River basin of Nepal. ...
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The knowledge of climate change effects on variations of winter wheat yields are crucial for productions. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between yield-related indices of winter wheat and the related climatic variables (selected using variance inflation factors) at the 20 sites of Xinjiang, China over 1981–2017. The background of climate and yield changes was analyzed from temporal and spatial respects. The number of independent climatic variables was selected with the variance inflation factor method to remove the multicollinear feature. The Pearson correlation was conducted between the first difference values of climatic variables and yield-related indices of winter wheat (namely plant height, growth period duration, 1000-kernel weight, kernel number per ear, biomass and yield) to find the key climatic variables that impacted winter wheat growth and yields. The multi-variate linear and nonlinear functions were established step by step using the selected key climatic variables. The best function was determined for each site (significant for p < 0.05). From the results, there were general wetter and warmer trends of the climatic variables. Correspondingly, shortened winter wheat phenology and increased growth and yields were observed for most sites. Still, the climatic trends had mixed effects on winter wheat yields. The effects of precipitation, mean air temperature and relative humidity on plant height and growth period duration agreed well. Different sites had different major climatic drivers for winter wheat growth or yields, and the best functions of growth and yields could be linearly or nonlinearly, mostly described by multi-variate functions. The winter wheat growth or yield indices were also found to be closely connected with the soil water content status at the eight sites. The relationship between winter wheat growth or yield and climate provided useful references for forecasting crop production and for projecting the impact of future climate changes.
... The multiple cropping system increases crop diversity, makes full use of limited soil resources, to a certain extent alleviates the shortage of cultivated land resources in agricultural production, and also guarantees food security (Yang et al., 2015;Xu et al., 2019b). Tobacco-rice multiple cropping rotation, that is, planting tobacco in spring and rice in autumn on the same farmland, is one of the main double-cropping systems in southern China . ...
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The shortage of land resources restricts the sustainable development of agricultural production. Multiple cropping has been widely used in Southern China, but whether the continuous planting will cause a decline in soil quality and crop yield is unclear. To test whether multiple cropping could increase grain yield, we investigated the farmlands with different cultivation years (10–20 years, 20–40 years, and >40 years). Results showed that tobacco-rice multiple cropping rotation significantly increased soil pH, nitrogen nutrient content, and grain yield, and it increased the richness of the bacterial community. The farmland with 20–40 years of cultivation has the highest soil organic carbon (SOC), ammonium nitrogen, and grain yield, but there is no significant difference in the diversity and structure of the bacterial community in farmlands with different cultivation years. The molecular ecological network indicated that the stability of the bacterial community decreased across the cultivation years, which may result in a decline of farmland yields in multiple cropping system> 40 years. The Acidobacteria members as the keystone taxa (Zi ≥ 2.5 or Pi ≥ 0.62) appeared in the tobacco-rice multiple cropping rotation farmlands, and the highest abundance of Acidobacteria was found in the farmland with the highest SOC and ammonium nitrogen content, suggesting Acidobacteria Gp4, GP7, GP12 , and GP17 are important taxa involved in the soil carbon and nitrogen cycle. Therefore, in this study, the multiple cropping systems for 20 years will not reduce the crop production potential, but they cannot last for more than 40 years. This study provides insights for ensuring soil quality and enhancing sustainable agricultural production capacity.
... As a populous country, more than 98% of China's agricultural operators are still small-scale farmers, lacking in awareness of scientific potato planting, especially in northern China [15]. When the contradiction between population and cultivated land resources is prominent, farmers' lack of awareness of agrometeorological disasters will bring huge losses to agriculture [16,17]. Several instances of research also proved that the potential contribution of potato to China's food self-sufficiency is far greater than that of the three other main food crops (rice, corn, wheat) [18]. ...
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Drought is one of the key limiting factors for potato yield in the northern single cropping area (NSCA) in China. To analyze the impact of drought on potato yield in the NSCA, this study first analyzed the variation of dry/wet conditions in the plantable areas on a seasonal scale using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Secondly, the changes in yield structure in the last 36 years were systematically analyzed and divided the total yield change into planting area contribution and climate yield contribution. Finally, a regression model of the seasonal drought index and contributing factors of total yield change in different administrative regions was constructed. The results showed that the main factors affecting the total potato yield of the NSCA began to change from yield to planting area in the 1990s, while the barycenter of the output structure and population moved to the southwest, with grassland being the main source; dry/wet conditions (year i) had varying degrees of effect on contributing factors (year i, year i + 1) of total yield change in different administrative regions that were not limited to the growing season; the non-overlap of high-yield area, high-adaptability area and planting area was the urgent problem to be solved for the NSCA. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for NSCA crop management and communication with farmers, providing new ideas for sustainable production in other agricultural regions in the world.
... The impacts of sowing date change on wheat GPs were quite small (Fig. 6) because wheat sowing date was delayed or advanced only slightly by less than 5 days/decade (Fig. 3a). Wheat production has been adapting to climate change in the past decades (Liu et al., 2010;Tao et al., 2012;Wang et al., 2012), but the current adaptation options seem not enough to make full use of the ameliorated climate resources from climate change (Tao et al., , 2014bYang et al., 2015). These findings suggest that there should be great potentials to further adapt to ongoing climate change by adopting the cultivars with a larger ATDU requirement and by changing sowing date. ...
Article
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... The maize planting area in northern China accounts for 50% of the country, including the irrigated maize area of Northwest China (IMA) and the spring maize area in Northeast China (SMA). Large maize planting span in northern China leads to great differences in climate pattern, cropping systems, and agricultural technologies (Gao et al. 2019;Li et al. 2016a;Liu et al. 2013;Yang et al. 2015). Many works of literature demonstrated that historical maize yield gains and LUE have been attributed to climatic, agronomic, and breeding factors Liu et al. 2012), which compensated for the negative impact of radiation reduction. ...
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We present an augmented version of the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method designed to generate probabilistic climate change information from ensembles of climate model simulations. Compared to the original version, the augmented one includes consideration of multiple variables and statistics in the calculation of the performance-based weights. In addition, the model convergence criterion previously employed is removed. The method is applied to the calculation of changes in mean and variability for temperature and precipitation over different sub-regions of East Asia based on the recently completed CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. Comparison of the new and old REA methods, along with the simple averaging procedure, and the use of different combinations of performance metrics shows that at fine sub-regional scales the choice of weighting is relevant. This is mostly because the models show a substantial spread in performance for the simulation of precipitation statistics, a result that supports the use of model weighting as a useful option to account for wide ranges of quality of models. The REA method, and in particular the upgraded one, provides a simple and flexible framework for assessing the uncertainty related to the aggregation of results from ensembles of models in order to produce climate change information at the regional scale. KEY WORDS: REA method, Climate change, CMIP3
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We present an augmented version of the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method designed to generate probabilistic climate-change information from ensembles of climate model simulations. Compared to the original version, the augmented method includes consideration of multiple variables and statistics in the calculation of performance-based weighting. In addition, the model convergence criterion previously employed has been removed. The method is applied to the calculation of changes in mean values and the variability of temperature and precipitation over dif- ferent sub-regions of East Asia, based on the recently completed CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. Comparison of the new and old REA methods, along with the simple averaging procedure, and the use of different combinations of performance metrics shows that at fine sub-regional scales the choice of weighting is relevant. This is mostly because the models show a substantial spread in performance for the simulation of precipitation statistics, a result that supports the use of model weighting as a use- ful option to account for wide ranges in the quality of models. The REA method and, in particular, the upgraded method provide a simple and flexible framework for assessing the uncertainty related to the aggregation of results from ensembles of models in order to produce climate-change information at a regional scale.
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