In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:
International Security 27.4 (2003) 5-56
[Figures]
The People's Republic of China (PRC) is more integrated into,
and more cooperative within, regional and global political and
economic systems than ever in its history. Yet there is growing
uneasiness in the United States and the Asia-Pacific region about
the implications of China's increasing economic and military power.
Characterizations of Chinese diplomacy in the policy and scholarly
worlds are, if anything, less optimistic of late about China's
adherence to regional and international norms. In the 1980s there
was little discussion in the United States and elsewhere about
whether China was or was not part of something called "the
international community." Since the early 1990s, however, scholars
and practitioners alike have argued increasingly that China has not
demonstrated sufficiently that it will play by so-called
international rules and that somehow it must be brought into this
community. The subtext is a fairly sharp othering of China that
includes a civilizing discourse (China is not yet a civilized
state) or perhaps a sports discourse (China is a cheater).
Many of the most vigorous policy debates in the United States in
recent years have been over whether it is even possible to
socialize a dictatorial, nationalistic, and dissatisfied China
within this putative international community. Engagers argue that
China is becoming socialized, though mainly in thesphere of
economic norms (e.g., free trade and domestic marketization).
Skeptics either conclude that this is not the case, due to the
nature of the regime (for some, China is still Red China; for more
sophisticated skeptics, China is flirting with fascism), or that it
could not possibly happen because China as a rising power, by
definition, is dissatisfied with the U.S.-dominated global order (a
power-transition realpolitik argument). A logical conclusion is
that both groups view the problem of China's rising power as the
primary source of instability in Sino-U.S. relations and by
extension in the Asia-Pacific region.
This article explores the degree to which China's leaders are
pursuing status quo or revisionist foreign policies. It examines
the evidence for and against the most common characterization of
China—that it is a dissatisfied, revisionist state, expressed in
everything from a desire to resolve the Taiwan issue in its favor
to excluding U.S. military power from the Asia-Pacific region to
replacing U.S. unipolarity with a multipolar distribution of power.
This characterization generally draws on or hews to various realist
insights into why rising powers are almost invariably interested in
challenging extant institutions, norms, and power distributions.
That is, the argument falls generally within a power-transition
version of realism where a static set of interests—the desire to
establish a great power's sphere of influence—interact with
changing Chinese relative capabilities to give China more
opportunities to challenge U.S. power. I suggest that this line of
argument is insufficiently attentive to the analytic ambiguities in
the terms "status quo" and "revisionism" as used in international
relations theory and practice. Moreover, this hypothesis fails to
examine both the status quo elements in Chinese diplomacy over the
last couple ofdecades and the problematic status of the empirical
evidence used to makeclaims about PRC revisionism. In short, it is
not clear that describing China as a revisionist or non-status quo
state is accurate at this moment in history.
What Is a Revisionist State in the Twenty-First Century?
In the last decade or so in the United States, many scholars,
pundits, and policymakers have characterized China as a state
operating outside of, or only partly inside, the so-called
international community on a range of international norms. As
Secretary of Defense William Perry noted in a speech in Seattle in
1995, engagement was a strategy for getting China to act like a
"responsible world power." In March 1997, in outlining national
security policy for President Bill Clinton's second term, National
Security Adviser Samuel Berger referred to Sino-U.S. engagement as
designed to pull China "in the direction of the international
community." Stanley Roth, assistant secretary of state for East
Asian and Pacific affairs, noted that "[the United States wants]
China to take...