Technical ReportPDF Available

Digital Economy & Regional Futures Research Report: Tasmanian Regional Future Foresight Report 2014-2015

Authors:
  • Institute for Working Futures

Abstract and Figures

Regional insights into Tasmanian Regional Economy
No caption available
… 
No caption available
… 
No caption available
… 
No caption available
… 
No caption available
… 
Content may be subject to copyright.
Digital Economy and Regional Futures:
Tasmanian Regional Future Foresight 2014-2015
Bell Bay Aluminum Community Forum
19 November 2014
Dr. Marcus Bowles, Director Working Futures™
e: mbowles@workingfutures.com.au
Digital Economy and Regional Futures research project
Purpose
The Digital Economy and Regional Futures (DERF) is a Institute for Working Futures Pty. Ltd.
industry research project. The focus is on identifying, planning and executing major
transformations in rural and regional areas. A particular focus is on the opportunities created
through use of new and smart technology in the delivery of remote services (health, education
and utilities), and in industries such as manufacturing, agriculture, transport and complex supply
chains. A particular emphasis is placed on transformational leadership, workforce capability
planning, breakthrough approaches to skills development and rapid innovation.
2
(http://www.derf.com.au)
Foresighting
What?
Foresighting is a participative approach to creating shared long-term visions
that inform short-term decision-making processes (<24 months). Such an
approach can support long range forecasting by providing more tangible
deliverables that generate immediate wins or ‘stepping stones’ to the desired
future state.
Why?
Foresighting allows action to be based on tangible goals and delivering early
wins that may be part of a vision that is up to 10 or more years distant.
Attainment of goals will orient policy planning, enable transformation, build
critical mass and generate real socio-economic growth for those involved.
3
Marco environmental drivers shaping Tasmania’s options
4
Hybrid and new fuels and
vehicles:
The push is increasing whereby
vehicles are becoming smarter,
manufactured differently and using
different fuel types.
Trade regulation and market
access
Open access, free trade
agreements (e.g. China). But
issues relating to increased
competition in mature industries
to create future opportunities in
emerging industries and to sell
primary and raw materials to
more competitive countries with
sustainable competitive
advantage due to labour supply,
costs and market proximity.
Virtual world & e-mobility:
We have appreciated the value of knowledge and
information, now recent developments have
themselves converged. Not only have they individually
been disruptive, now trends are accelerating as
technologies and developers seize new opportunities,
move to the cloud and goods are increasingly sold in
the virtual space.
Skills supply and workforce
capabilities
A new social and economic divide is
emerging between nations and regions.
Without access to higher order
knowledge and trade skills new
industries cannot survive and old
industries cannot transform. The new
challenge is to bridge the skills divide
(including digital divide) through
provision of more innovative education
and skilling strategies backed by ways
to stop the ‘brain drain’.
Personalisation
Markets are being build on
delivering to individuals what they
want, when they want it to their
personal preferences.
Internet of Things
Our society and economies are
changing as the Internet
become ubiquitous to our lives.
Objects can be identified,
located and monitored.
Sensors, miniaturisation,
wearable computers, and such
like beckon an era where
technologies are smart and
connectivity is constant.
Smarter strategies to deal
with complexity and
disruptive innovations
Nations seek to become smarter
and utilise or sell smart devices,
platforms and applications that
converge, become smarter,
smaller and able to
communicate synchronously.
Global race to compete in
the digital economy
There is a global race by
nations to build the
infrastructure that enables
early advantage in the digital
economy and will form the
backbone for
competitiveness of nations in
the 21st century, just as road,
rail and utilities networks did
to for the industrial economy
of the 19/20th century.
Social drivers join the
economic ones to impel
nations to not only achieve
quality, high speed
connections but the ubiquity
of access that ensures
everyone can participate
Mega cities and regions
Urbanisation is occurring at
great pace. Cities over 10
million have increased by
20% in 5 years. Such cities are
increasingly centred in a
region or in a ‘trade
corridors’ in Asia or Middle
east.
Foresighting messages: Tasmania
1. Small business mindset: Tasmanian economic future is heavily dependent on small businesses (63% of
employment largest in Australia) where owners and operators mostly do not perceive themselves as
participants in a global market (ANZ Bus Survey, 2013).
2. Small export base: Because of the small base for export oriented, larger businesses, Tasmania and
employment of Tasmanians is very vulnerable to downturn in global markets or competitive forces
affecting mature industries: i.e. mature industries employ more but are less sustainable
3. Stalled employment growth: Where Australia’s economic opportunities lie isn’t where Tasmanian
businesses are growing fast or employing more workers comparative with 2010 data or current
performance of all other states
4. Need to leverage strengths in sustainable global markets: Most emerging and new business opportunities
may grow fast and create economic advantage, but their employment to income ratio in Tasmania is
historically below that of mature industries
5. Need to stimulate new businesses: In a regional economy with limited availability of funds or ‘export
market opportunities’ tech business and start-up opportunities can be fostered through government
targeting select public sector activities where ICT can stimulate employment, cost reduction and
productivity growth (e.g. agribusiness, education, manufacturing, health, utilities, freight,)
6. Need to de-mature: Select mature industries have great potential to leverage digital disruption to improve
competitiveness, reduce costs and stimulate growth
Let’s flesh this out more and talk about the George Town region……………
5
(1) Tasmanian small business numbers by operation/ industry, 2010-11
6,011.00 , 16%
138.00 , 0%
1,453.00 , 4%
28,592.00 , 78%
583.00 , 2%
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Services industries
Not classified
Slide 6
Total number 36,777
source: ABS Cat. No. 8165.0 and DIISRTE calculations
(2) Tasmania: Industry sector by export and employment, 2011
More than any other state Tasmania is reliant on traditional, ‘older’ manufacturing and primary
industries for both employment and export earnings
Slide 7
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and
Housing, 2011 (Usual residence data)
Major exporters
(2) continued….Change in industry sector of employment, 2006 to 2011
This makes Tasmania, and regions vulnerable to global markets where competition and economic
downturn impact business success and employment
Slide 8
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 (Usual residence data)
(3) Growth and employment in Tasmania go hand-in-hand; for good or ill:
October 2014
Slide 9
Of 419,800 people living in Tasmania of work age only
238,600 (61%) were employed of which only 150,900
were employed full time
18,400 people living in Tasmania were unemployed (7.2%)
From October 2011 to October 2014
Tasmania’s total labour force increased by
100 jobs
11.3% of 15-14 year olds are reported as unemployed but
unemployment (looking for full time work) reached 30% for the first time
(4) Positioning Australia for global growth and opportunity
Deloitte, October 2013. Super-growth sectors worth $250b to build Australia’s ‘lucky country, Media Release.
Tasmanian Economic Capacity Building within a National Strategy:
The priority industry development opportunities
‘Graft”
new technologies onto existing
industry/ business
Driving emerging and new businesses
1.
Agribusiness/ agrifood
2.
Tourism
3.
Health and aged care (especially home
care)
4.
Mining and gas
and
5.
Manufacturing & Utilities*
A.
Start-ups
B.
New Manufacturing
C.
International Education: in particular online and flexible
international education and recognition services
D.
Transport: safety, security, port management systems,
maintenance management systems, freight tracking and
e-logistics systems
E.
Data analytics: Date storage; big data; and online and
social network data collection, analysis and reporting
F.
Micro-technologies: Sensors, nanotechnology,
telemetry/e-logistics tracking, and data processing
G.
ICT: telepresence and digital call centres; creative and
digital media; data analytics; network engineering,
applications and software development.
Tasmanian industry future industry global growth opportunities
Opportunities to leverage new technologies in Tasmanian industries seem to
fall into the following ranked order:
1. Agrifood **
2. International education and training**
3. Health
4. Manufacturing, including new manufacturing, precision engineering,
food production and processing **
5. Hospitality and Tourism**
6. Creative and digital media
7. Transport and logistics
8. Financial services
** With niche strength to participate in global growth opportunities
12
(5) Target industry for Australian start-ups compared to industry size
13
Source: PWC (2013), The Startup economy: How to support tech startups and accelerate Australian innovation, Google Australia, Sydney.
Bowles, M. 2014, ICT State of the State: Tasmania, ACS, Sydney.
The importance of stimulating
innovation is most obvious in start-ups.
New businesses deploying new
technology offer a significant
opportunity for regional economies
such as Tasmania.
Not only does it offer local users early
access to new technologies and market
access for other individuals and
companies, start-ups hold potential for
generating new economic activity and
income: estimated to be $109b (or 4%
of GDP) for Australia by 2033.
(6) Dematuring: Making mature industries more competitive
Deploying digital innovations to enhance operations and market access
Shift paradigms to new customer segments
Deploy new production technologies
Look to lateral markets (adjacent market opportunities, old competencies,
new markets)
Pursue regulatory reform or relief to ease global competitiveness
Improve inward supply and sourcing logistics and supply chains and
recalibrate distribution (outward to market)
14
Dematuring old industries: Where digital disruption and innovation can help
mature industries
15
Deloitte, September 2012. Building the Lucky Country #2: Digital Disruption: Short fuse big bang, Sydney, page 8.
There remains significant opportunity to utilise improved technology and systems to improve
mature industries. They represent high potential markets for regional entrepreneurs and existing
and start-up tech businesses.
Why demature?
Rejuvenating older industries can delay or even indefinitely defer the massive,
negative wave that will occur when closure precedes establishment of viable,
competitive new industries.
Dematuring recognises:
1. Emerging and new industries may offer growth but there is usually a lag
to sustainable employment creation
2. Structural transformations take time
3. Core competence of workforce is misaligned and reskilling takes time
and commitment
4. Economic contribution may shrink but total removal can negatively
impact a regions GDP (e.g. Tasmania or George Town)
5. Mature industries typically are the heart of a region (examples we can
reference include regional impact of closing paper mills, coal mines,
manufacturing plants, smelters, etc.)
Slide 16
Dematuring smelter and related businesses
The core focus on value-adding R&D and deployment of innovations should
be improving:
Net Smelter Returns (total revenue production costs)
Reduction of Green House Gas Emissions
Power utilisation
Industrial engineering
Supply chain and logistics partnerships and efficiencies
Co-locate new or competitive new businesses (cluster effect)
Global alliances (regional)
17
George Town business attraction checklist
Leverages existing strengths (industrial, community, etc.)
Compatible workforce and skill needs
Export potential
Growth market
High potential to do R&D or innovate to improve global competitiveness
Retain, attract or stimulate new business opportunities
Slide 18
A cluster example: Ship lift in a Bell Bay maritime services zone
Slide 19
Fast facts:
Possible $30m investment
230 jobs construction phase
24 direct & 120 indirect jobs
~$15m p.a. income
Business attraction (e.g. RAN
maintenance contracts)
Business & UTAS opportunity
Globalisation: Regional alliances across nations form partnerships to
reach markets
Country partnerships
providing:
- Local promotion and cooperation
- Meet ups and local experts, R&D,
and business support
- To market plans and mutual gains
Projects like ship maintenance and engineering attract global opportunities and potential
alliances.
Regional partnerships that span countries will promote knowledge sharing, mutual strategic
advantage and global market access (suppliers, manufacturers, and sellers). They form a
global network of partners.
STATE GROWTH: OTHER NUMBERS
Tasmania
21
Tasmanian employment by industry, 2013 (%)
Tasmanian industry opportunities: Where is employment and Gross State Product
grow occurring in mature industries?
22
Source: ABS, 2013, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Cat. No. 6291.0.55.003
and Macintosh, A, December 2013, Chipping away at Tasmania’s future, The
Australian Institute, Institute Paper No. 15,
Tasmania’s top six industries at 2013 as a proportion of GSP, 1990 to 2012
Real activity and growth (November 2014)
Slide 23
Private new capital expenditure, real trend data Business investment, real trend data
Exports (value), nominal original data Unemployment rate by region, original data
Source: Tas. Dept. of Treasury & Finance, Economic Statistics Summary, 4 November 2014)
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.