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Hugo G.J. and Bardsley D.K. (2014) Migration and environmental change in Asia. In: People on the Move in a Changing Climate: The Regional Impact of Environmental Change on Migration. Eds. Piguet E. and Laczko F., International Organization for Migration, Geneva, pp21-48.
Abstract
Increasingly it is becoming clear that major changes in Asia have implications for global environmental, social and economic systems. Together, environmental change across Asia and increasing internal and international migration already present challenges that are straining the management capacities of nation-states. Future climate change will exacerbate these challenges, as indicated here in the context of likely key regions that are projected to face major change. The chapter synthesises the current academic debate on how such environmental change will influence human migration for Asia. Many millions of people will be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, and many more people are moving into harm’s way as Asian urban development concentrates in vulnerable areas such as river valleys, deltas and coastal zones. Case studies of potential linear and non-linear changes to future migration due to climate change are presented from sub-regions of Asia. As Asian countries, and particularly those with large, poor populations, experience significant environmental change, people will adapt in situ, but increasingly, policy responses will need to look to support ex situ climate change adaptation that involves the movement of people, systems and/or assets from places of high vulnerability. Such a change in orientation would have significant, non-linear impacts for the many already highly complex migration patterns and networks within and from Asia.
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Ecological migration conducted by the government is a typical process of governmental intervention , and the relevant resettlement planning and rehabilitation mode reflect the government ' s plan of development. From the point of view of the function of ecological migration system and setting the Tarim river ecological migration as an example , the stakeholders include national government , individual, sector management department , and the local government of migration are a and relocation area. Each stakeholder has his own unique and un-substitutable social and economic interests and needs.The main rights and interests for ecological migration include the right of development and survival, the right of social welfare, the right of public participation and the right of property compensation.The limitation of the compensation system, especially lack of the compensation for the non economic costs and the occupation of the resource of the relocation areas, and some other issues which will cause social unfairness are the reason for social conflicts. It has suggested that the government should establish the mechanism of interest balancing and grievance appeal, build the legal system, and made a clear orientation of the government ' s function in order to take the responsibility of the government.
Key words: ecological migration; protection of rights and interests; government 's responsibilities; stakeholders; social conflicts; Tarim river migration
New evidences show that climate change has affected many sectors in Asia (medium confidence).
The crop yield in many countries of Asia has declined, partly due to rising temperatures and extreme weather events. The retreat of glaciers and permafrost in Asia in recent years is unprecedented as a consequence of warming. The frequency of occurrence of climate-induced diseases and heat stress in Central, East, South and South-East Asia has increased with rising temperatures and rainfall variability. Observed changes in terrestrial and marine ecosystems have become more pronounced (medium confidence). [10.2.3, 10.2.4]
Future climate change is likely to affect agriculture, risk of hunger and water resource scarcity with enhanced climate variability and more rapid melting of glaciers (medium confidence).
About 2.5 to 10% decrease in crop yield is projected for parts of Asia in 2020s and 5 to 30% decrease in 2050s compared with 1990 levels without CO2 effects (medium confidence) [10.4.1.1]. Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, particularly in large river basins such as Changjiang, is likely to decrease due to climate change, along with population growth and rising standard of living that could adversely affect more than a billion people in Asia by the 2050s (high confidence) [10.4.2]. It is estimated that under the full range of Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) scenarios, 120 million to 1.2 billion will experience increased water stress by the 2020s, and by the 2050s the number will range from 185 to 981 million people (high confidence) [10.4.2.3]. Accelerated glacier melt is likely to cause increase in the number and severity of glacial melt-related floods, slope destabilisation and a decrease in river flows as glaciers recede (medium confidence) [10.2.4.2, 10.4.2.1]. An additional 49 million, 132 million and 266 million people of Asia, projected under A2 scenario without carbon fertilisation, could be at risk of hunger by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively (medium confidence) [10.4.1.4].
Marine and coastal ecosystems in Asia are likely to be affected by sea-level rise and temperature increases (high confidence).
Projected sea-level rise is very likely to result in significant losses of coastal ecosystems and a million or so people along the coasts of South and South-East Asia will likely be at risk from flooding (high confidence) [10.4.3.1]. Sea-water intrusion due to sea-level rise and declining river runoff is likely to increase the habitat of brackish water fisheries but coastal inundation is likely to seriously affect the aquaculture industry and infrastructure particularly in heavily-populated megadeltas (high confidence) [10.4.1.3, 10.4.3.2]. Stability of wetlands, mangroves and coral reefs around Asia is likely to be increasingly threatened (high confidence) [10.4.3.2, 10.6.1]. Recent risk analysis of coral reef suggests that between 24% and 30% of the reefs in Asia are likely to be lost during the next 10 years and 30 years, respectively (medium confidence) [10.4.3.2].
Climate change is likely to affect forest expansion and migration, and exacerbate threats to biodiversity resulting from land use/cover change and population pressure in most of Asia (medium confidence).
Increased risk of extinction for many flora and fauna species in Asia is likely as a result of the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation (medium confidence) [10.4.4.1]. In North Asia, forest growth and northward shift in the extent of boreal forest is likely (medium confidence) [10.4.4]. The frequency and extent of forest fires in North Asia is likely to increase in the future due to climate change that could likely limit forest expansion (medium confidence) [10.4.4].
Future climate change is likely to continue to adversely affect human health in Asia (high confidence).
Increases in endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with climate change are expected in South and South-East Asia (high confidence). Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in south Asia (high confidence). Natural habitats of vector-borne and water-borne diseases in north Asia are likely to expand in the future (medium confidence). [10.4.5]
Multiple stresses in Asia will be compounded further due to climate change (high confidence).
It is likely that climate change will impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanisation, industrialisation and economic development. Mainstreaming sustainable development policies and the inclusion of climate-proofing concepts in national development initiatives are likely to reduce pressure on natural resources and improve management of environmental risks (high confidence) [10.7].
This article surveys contemporary theories of international migration in order to illuminate their leading propositions, assumptions, and hypotheses. It hopes to pave the way for a systematic empirical evaluation of their guiding tenets. The authors divide the theories conceptually into those advanced to explain the initiation of international migration and those put forth to account for the persistence of migration across space and time. Because they are specified at such different levels of analysis, the theories are not inherently logically inconsistent. The task of selecting between theories and propositions thus becomes an empirical exercise, one that must occur before a truly integrated theoretical framework can be fully realized. -Authors
Environmental crisis in the rural areas of developing countries is increasingly becoming an important cause of cross‐border migration of population and South Asia is no exception to this phenomenon. Such movement of population in the Indo‐Bangladesh context is generating a range of destabilising socio‐political, economic, ethnic and communal tensions in India. It has embittered Indo‐Bangladesh relations, causing tensions between the two countries.This paper focuses on environmental crisis as a reason for the continued migration of people from Bangladesh to India. It shows that scarcity of land and water in the rural areas of Bangladesh, caused by rapid population growth, environmental change and unequal resource distribution and development, are causing widespread landlessness, unemployment, declining wages and income, growing income disparties and degradation of human habitat. The affected people, unable to satisfy their needs in an economically less‐developed Bangladesh, are increasingly moving to India where the prospect of life appears to be better.The study suggests that this flow of population would continue unabated, perhaps at a greater rate, unless remedial measures are taken in the places of origin of the migrants.
Vietnam is situated in the tropical monsoon area and the coastal areas are repeatedly hit by devastating storms and typhoons. Protective sea dikes are frequently overtopped or breached, and the resulting flooding causes loss of life and damage to agricultural land and infrastructure. In recent years, 361 kilometers of dikes have been upgraded in the coastal area of the five northern provinces of the Red River Delta. Master plans for measures in the Red River Delta, Central Vietnam, and the Mekong Delta have been completed or are in preparation. This paper provides a review of the present situation in Vietnam. Special attention is paid to the necessary upgrading of the design methodology, the development of appropriate construction techniques and capacity building, and the resulting actions relating to the management aspects of the flood defenses.
This paper attempts to focus on some of the issues and problems related to poverty and sustainable development in Bangladesh from the perspective of environmental protection and ecological balance. It has been argued that poverty alleviation and environmental protection are in harmony to reinforce sustainable development. This paper is an attempt to analyze the development scenario that aims at reducing poverty. However, in spite of the best efforts of government and NGOs the various indices of development in the developing countries have already faced difficulties in the context of achieving their goals and targets. This paper argues that instead of contributing to sustainability most of the development programs having a negative effect on overall environment and society.
Settlements in coastal lowlands are especially vulnerable to risks resulting from climate change, yet these lowlands are densely settled and growing rapidly. In this paper, we undertake the first global review of the population and urban settlement patterns in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), defined here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level. Overall, this zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area but contains 10 per cent of the world's population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. A disproportionate number of the countries with a large share of their population in this zone are small island countries, but most of the countries with large populations in the zone are large countries with heavily populated delta regions. On average, the Least Developed Countries have a higher share of their population living in the zone (14 per cent) than do OECD countries (10 per cent), with even greater disparities in the urban shares (21 per cent compared to 11 per cent). Almost two-thirds of urban settlements with populations greater than 5 million fall, at least partly, in the zone. In some countries (most notably China), urbanization is driving a movement in population towards the coast. Reducing the risk of disasters related to climate change in coastal settlements will require a combination of mitigation, migration and settlement modification.
This article describes a regional approach to climate change adaption that focuses on engaging the natural resource management community. In a world tempered by increasing climatic uncertainty as a result of projected climate change, natural resource management practitioners are looking for approaches to respond through effective adaptation, yet the availability of practical tools to guide and inform their decision-making processes is limited. The social learning approach described was developed between the South Australian Government and the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board. The approach successfully engaged stakeholders and provided a foundation upon which informed adaptation planning and action could take place. Techniques ranged from direct relationship building and participatory action learning, through to a regional vulnerability analysis and the development and application of a comprehensive regional adaptation response framework to guide future decisions.
We present climatic consequences of the Repre-sentative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) us-ing MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard sce-narios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG) con-centrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st cen-tury slightly above 1.5 • C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convec-tion that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m) is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even af-ter surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an inten-sification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.
The livelihood framework suggests that poverty is not only a product of material deprivation but of a set of interlocking factors, including physical weakness, social isolation, vulnerability and powerlessness. The paper aims to explain how the poor cope with urban life though their household strategies in reference to livelihood framework. Data have been collected from five hundred urban poor living in three different neighbourhoods in Dhaka City, Bangladesh, by using a structured questionnaire. The study reveals that the poor face extreme poverty and vulnerability in terms of their economic and social conditions and cope with these adverse situations having adopted different strategies in their households. The paper argues that the urban poor adopt such strategies through their household to survive in the city as they have limited access to the existing economic and social systems.
This paper considers the needed adaptation and mitigation agenda for cities in India – where the urban population is likely to grow by around 500 million over the next 50 years. It considers the likely changes that climate change will bring in temperature, precipitation and extreme rainfall, drought, river and inland fl ooding, storms/storm surges/coastal fl ooding, sea-level rise and environmental health risks, and who within urban populations are most at risk. It notes the importance for urban areas of an effective rural adaptation agenda – especially in maintaining the productivity and functioning of rural systems. It highlights the importance of today's infrastructure investments, taking into account climate changes, given the long lifespan of most infrastructure, and the importance of urban management engaging with changing risk profi les. One important part of this is the need to connect offi cial adaptation initiatives to the much-improved natural hazard risk assessment, management and mitigation capacity that responded to major disasters. The paper ends by describing a possible urban climate change adaptation framework, including changes needed at the national, state, city and neighbourhood levels, and linkages to mitigation.
The Greater Himalayas hold the largest mass of ice outside polar regions and are the source of the 10 largest rivers in Asia. Rapid reduction in the volume of Himalayan glaciers due to climate change is occurring. The cascading effects of rising temperatures and loss of ice and snow in the region are affecting, for example, water availability (amounts, seasonality), biodiversity (endemic species, predator-prey relations), ecosystem boundary shifts (tree-line movements, high-elevation ecosystem changes), and global feedbacks (monsoonal shifts, loss of soil carbon). Climate change will also have environmental and social impacts that will likely increase uncertainty in water supplies and agricultural production for human populations across Asia. A common understanding of climate change needs to be developed through regional and local-scale research so that mitigation and adaptation strategies can be identified and implemented. The challenges brought about by climate change in the Greater Himalayas can only be addressed through increased regional collaboration in scientific research and policy making.
Previous research has postulated that climate change will lead to mass migration. However, the linkages postulated between
the two have not been explicitly demonstrated but have rather been derived from ‘common sense’. In this paper, the connection
between climate change and migration via two mechanisms, sea level rise and floods, is investigated and depicted in conceptual
models. In both cases, a connection can be traced and the linkages are made explicit. However, the study also clearly shows
that the connection is by no means deterministic but depends on numerous factors relating to the vulnerability of the people
and the region in question.
South Asia is one of the most flood vulnerable regions in the world. Floods occur often in the region triggered by heavy monsoon
precipitation and can cause enormous damages to lives, property, crops and infrastructure. The frequency of extreme floods
is on the rise in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Past extreme floods fall within the range of climate variability but frequency,
magnitude and extent flooding may increase in South Asia in future due to climate change. Flood risk is sensitive to different
levels of warming. For example, in Bangladesh, analysis shows that most of the expected changes in flood depth and extent
would occur between 0 and 2°C warming. The three major rivers Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak will play similar roles
in future flooding regimes as they are doing presently. Increases in future flooding can cause extensive damage to rice crops
in the monsoon. This may have implications for food security especially of poor women and children. Floods can also impact
public health in the flood plains and in the coastal areas.
KeywordsClimate change–Flooding–South Asia–Crop damage–Food security
Movement is an integral part of human existence. While talking about transborder migration from Bangladesh to India, we are, however, aware that this is a controversial subject. The partition of Bengal in 1947 was the cruelest partition in the history of the world and caused forced illegal migration from erstwhile East Pakistan. It is estimated that there are about 15 million Bangladeshi nationals living in India illegally. West Bengal has a border running 2,216 km along Bangladesh. The present study highlights push-pull factors of illegal Bangladeshi migration based on perceptions of respondents obtained from a qualitative survey done on the basis of purposive sampling in Kolkata and 24 parganas and two districts of West Bengal (WB), an Indian State. The economic push factors that motivate people to leave Bangladesh are instability and economic depression, poverty, lack of employment opportunity, struggle for livelihood, forced grabbing of landed property from minority group, and lack of industrialization in Bangladesh. About 56% of the respondents expressed that lack of industrialisation/lack of employment/economic insecurity would be the probable cause of this migration. Among the demographic factors, population explosion in Bangladesh and lowest human development index may be the most important cause of illegal migration from Bangladesh to West Bengal. Hindu minority group faced problems in connection with matrimonial alliances. Educational curricula, which were framed according to Islamic preaching and curtailment of facilities enjoyed by Hindu minority group, were responsible factor for illegal migration of Hindu minority population. Another cause is social insecurity. Political instability, fear of riots and terrorism in Bangladesh, inhuman attitude and activities of the political leaders, absence of democratic rights, Muslim domination, religious instigation by political leaders, insecurity feeling of Hindus, are the major crucial issues that require to be mentioned as political push factors. About 59% of the respondents are of the opinion that religious fundamentalists/insecurity of the minority group/discriminating law and order against Hindus may be the factors that motivated migration from Bangladesh to West Bengal. In terms of ethnic cleansing, one can witness elimination of groups of minorities by dominant ethnic group, curbing their rights controlling their influence in a state’s system. Double standards are observed in punishing criminals. Police officials do not record complaints from minority community. According to 85% of the respondent economic opportunity in terms of job opportunity, economic security prevailing in West Bengal worked as pull factors for migrants to West Bengal. Geographic proximity of Bangladesh and West Bengal, the linguistics and cultural similarities, same food habit, homo-ethnic climate, belief of getting shelter, cordiality, fellow-feeling, acceptance power of people of West Bengal have contributed to the movements of population from Bangladesh to West Bengal.
The Asia-Pacific region is home to the world’s largest region of coral reefs and mangroves. It accommodates two-thirds of the world’s human population and its economic activities have the highest growth rate in the world. Ongoing degradation of the environment, resulting from coastal development, deforestation, desertification and over-harvesting, are becoming a matter of great concern, as floods and droughts occur as a result of this degradation. The Asia-Pacific region also includes part of the ‘Pacific Rim of Fire’ and is, therefore, vulnerable to earthquakes and tsunamis, as the world became aware following the Sumatra earthquake and tsunami on 26 December 2004. Threats of global environmental change, such as climate change and sea-level rise, will exacerbate such problems. Therefore, appropriate policies and measures are needed for coastal management, to address both the local and global trends. This book gives an overview of the state-of-the-art understanding on the drivers, state, and responses to coastal environmental changes in the Asia-Pacific region. It provides excellent perspectives on current and anticipated environmental changes in the region’s coastal areas, to researchers, students, policy makers, coastal managers and other stakeholders.
Audience:
This book will be of interest to researchers of coastal science, undergraduate and graduate students of coastal science, engineering and management, to policy makers, coastal managers and coastal developers, and to the fishing industry.
The country Bangladesh represents a good case study of environmental security due to its vulnerabilities that come from both external and internal sources. The country first realized its environmental vulnerability when the specter of famine raged over a part of it in 1974. It was further aggravated by floods and furthered the proliferation of famine. Meanwhile, the role of environmental factors in the economic and political development of Bangladesh will depend largely on whether the regime in power can adapt to the changing environmental forces arrayed against it, both national and international. Bangladesh not only faces global and domestic sources of environmental insecurity, but also lacks the strong political establishments needed to cope with such dangers as environmental degradation and the risk of the inability of the government to cope with it. Nevertheless, the only positive feature is that its people are very politically conscious and environmentally aware. In fact, the media and the non government organizations are playing a very positive role. As such, the Bangladesh Environmental Lawyers Association received the United Nations Environment Award in 2003.
In recent years, sandstorms have seriously threatened Beijing, prompting the Chinese government to further acknowledge the importance of ecological issues in the ethnic minority regions. The government is now undertaking various measures to conserve the environment in minority regions. However, many ethnic minority people, instead of benefiting from the government projects, have become ecological immigrants, being forced to leave their homelands. This report, based on field research, touches on population resettlement and environmental issues in the Lianhua and Minghai Townships of the Sunan Yugur Autonomous County of Gansu Province. The area, inhabited mainly by the Yugur nomads, is located in the Gobi region of the central Hexi corridor to the north of the Qilian Shan mountains. The resettlement of the Yugur nomads to take up agricultural farming ostensibly to adjust population distribution and to solve ecological problems, has in fact accelerated environmental deterioration. This case reflects only a tip of the iceberg of the problems of ethnic minority ecological immigrants in the process of China’s Western Region Development.
Reluctant Heroes provides a rich portrait of the urban milieu and life in two contrasting yet interrelated cities in South China. It is a fascinating study of rickshaw pullers in Hong Kong and Canton. © 2008 by Hong Kong University Press, HKU. All rights reserved.
Small Island Developing States are often depicted as being among the most vulnerable of all places to the effects of climate change, and they are a cause c?l?bre of many involved in climate science, politics and the media. Yet while small island developing states are much talked about, the production of both scientific knowledge and policies to protect the rights of these nations and their people has been remarkably slow. This book is the first to apply a critical approach to climate change science and policy processes in the South Pacific region. It shows how groups within politically and scientifically powerful countries appropriate the issue of island vulnerability in ways that do not do justice to the lives of island people. It argues that the ways in which islands and their inhabitants are represented in climate science and politics seldom leads to meaningful responses to assist them to adapt to climate change. Throughout, the authors focus on the hitherto largely ignored social impacts of climate change, and demonstrate that adaptation and mitigation policies cannot be effective without understanding the social systems and values of island societies.
The implications of environmental change for migration are little
understood. Migration as a response to climate change could be seen as a failure of
in situ adaptation methods, or migration could be alternatively perceived as a
rational component of creative adaptation to environmental risk. This paper frames
migration as part of an adaptation response to climate change impacts to natural
resource condition and environmental hazards. Thresholds will be reached by
communities after which migration will become a vital component of an effective
adaptation response. Such changes to migration patterns have the potential to
undermine migration policy unless appropriate preparations are undertaken. This
paper describes an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will
influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to
migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in
Nepal and Thailand. Future policy for internal and international migration could be
guided by the analysis of such thresholds of non-linear migration and resourced
effectively to ensure that socio-economic and humanitarian outcomes are
maximised.
Indonesia currently has one of the largest groups of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) of any nation in the world. This paper assesses the scale and patterns of such movement in Indonesia as at the beginning of 2002. It begins by assessing conflict as a cause of internal migration and shows how such movement was significant during the first two decades of independence in Indonesia. The current patterns of movement of IDPs in Indonesia are then outlined with the main origins being in the Outer Island provinces of Maluku, East Timor, Aceh, Central Sulawesi, Central Kalimantan, Papua and West Kalimantan. Around half of the current 1.3 million IDPs are housed in “refugee camps,” often in crowded and unhygienic conditions. Several of the expulsions of IDPs have come from areas where there have been earlier influxes of migrants, especially transmigrants of Java-Bali origins and the so-called BBM (Bugis, Butonese and Makassarese from South Sulawesi), with different ethnoreligious backgrounds than the native residents. The release of central control following the fall of the Suharto regime and the onset of the financial crisis have seen simmering newcomer/native, ethnic, religious and economic tensions rise to the surface to create the large scale expulsions. The Indonesian government has put forward a strategy to “solve” the IDP problem by the end of 2002. This is assessed and some of the medium and long-term implications of the movement discussed.
Most of the world’s population lives close to the coast and is highly dependent on coastal resources, which are being exploited at unsustainable rates. These resources are being subject to further pressures associated with population increase and the globalization of coastal resource demand. This is particularly so for the Asia-Pacific region which contains almost two thirds of the world’s population and most of the world’s coastal megacities. The region has globally important atmospheric and oceanic phenomena, which affect world climate such as the Asian Monsoon and the El-Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. The Asia-Pacific region also has highly significant marine diversity but over the last few decades, coastal resources such as mangroves, coral reefs and fisheries have experienced large-scale depletion. The need to find appropriate management solutions to these and other coastal issues is made more complex by the need to take account of international scientific predictions for global climate change and sea-level rise which will further impact on these coasts. The idea for this book arose from a meeting of coastal scientists in Kobe, Japan in May 2003. The meeting was organized by the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), an inter-governmental network, comprising 21 member countries, for the promotion of global change research and links between science and policy making in the region.
Although the concept of “environmental refugees” was introduced in the mid-1980s and remains quite popular in many quarters, there is relatively little empirical work demonstrating the existence and nature of a connection between environmental change and human migration. In this study we contribute to this literature by updating and expanding on recent work done in Nepal using data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study. We use event history data to model local, internal, and international migration as a function of environmental deterioration at baseline while controlling for social, economic, and demographic variables that prior work has shown to affect population mobility. We find a strong and consistent relationship between the likelihood of undertaking a local move and population pressure (measured by neighborhood density), deforestation (indicated by rising times required to collect fodder and firewood), and declining agricultural productivity. We also find that the environmental effects on local migration are more prevalent for women than for men. We found little evidence that environmental deterioration promoted migration outside of the local district, either to other districts in Nepal or to international destinations, though increased time to collect firewood was associated with a higher probability of men leaving Chitwan for other countries or other districts in Nepal. In general, our results suggest that the kind of gradual environmental deterioration studied here is more associated with local than distant population mobility.
Environmental degradation in the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia has
been a touchstone for increasing public awareness of environmental
issues. The Aral crisis has been touted as a "quiet Chernobyl" and as
one of the worst human-made environmental catastrophes of the twentieth
century. This multidisciplinary book is the first to comprehensively
describe the slow onset of low grade but incremental changes (i.e.,
creeping environmental change) that affected the region and its peoples.
Through a set of case studies, it describes how the region's
decision-makers allowed these changes to grow into an environmental and
societal nightmare. It outlines many lessons to be learned for other
areas undergoing detrimental creeping environmental change, and provides
an important example of how to approach such disasters for students and
researchers of environmental studies, global change, political science
and history.
This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decision making under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies. (LN)
This paper examines global demographic change as a driver of migration within the context of anticipated climate change. It begins by briefly considering some theoretical formulations which relate demographic change and migration. It then considers evolving global demographic trends and discusses some of their potential impacts upon migration. It is shown that there is a close spatial coincidence between demographic and climate change “hotspots” that will influence migration in complex ways. It then turns to the complex interaction between demographic change, environmental change and migration, both in the past and potential developments in the future. It concludes with a discussion of the potential impacts of future trends and their policy implications.
This paper uses a content analysis of the published literature to take stock of current understanding of key social and policy drivers of migration to cities in 11 Asian and African mega-deltas and identifies commonalities and differences among them. The analysis shows that migration to urban centers in mega-deltas is an outcome of many forces: economic policies and incentives, local and destination institutions, government policies to develop small towns, and the geographic concentration of investments. Massive influx of capital to many deltas has transformed the local economic base from a primarily agricultural one to a manufacturing and processing economy. This has created uneven spatial economic development which is the underlying driver of migration to cities in the mega-deltas regardless of geographic context or size. Going forward to 2060, one critical challenge for all the deltas is to increase the labor skill of their workforce and foster technology innovation. Continued economic growth in these regions will require substantial investments in education and capacity building and the ability of urban centers to absorb the migrant labor pool.
This paper reviews research in place attachment and organizes the material into three sections: research, method, and theory. A review of several hundred empirical and theoretical papers and chapters reveals that despite mobility and globalization processes, place continues to be an object of strong attachments. The main message of the paper is that of the three components of the tripartite model of place attachment (Scannell & Gifford, 2010a), the Person component has attracted disproportionately more attention than the Place and Process components, and that this emphasis on individual differences probably has inhibited the development of a theory of place attachment. Suggestions are offered for theoretical sources that might help to fill the gaps, including theories of social capital, environmental aesthetics, phenomenological laws of order, attachment, and meaning-making processes that stem from movements and time-space routines.
Climatic disaster-induced migration and its effects on land exploitation of new settlements is a crucial topic that needs
to be researched to better understand the impact of climate change and human adaptation. This paper focuses on the process
and mechanism of migrant–reclamation in Northeast China in response to climatic disasters over the past 300 years. The research
used comparative analysis of key interlinked factors in this response involving drought/flood events, population, cropland
area, farmer revolts, administrations establishment, and land reclamation policies. It draws the following conclusions: (1)
seven peaks of migrants–reclamation in Northeast China were evident, most likely when frequent climatic disasters happened
in North China, such as the drought–flood in 1851–1859, drought in 1875–1877, and drought 1927–1929; (2) six instances of
policy transformation adopted to cope with extreme climatic events, including distinctive examples like changing to a firm
policy prohibiting migration in 1740 and a subsequent lifting of that prohibition in 1860; and (3) the fast expansion of the
northern agricultural boundary since the middle of the nineteenth century in this area benefited from a climate change trend
from a cold period into a warm period. Altogether, over the past 300 years, extreme climatic disasters in North China have
deepened the contradiction between the limited land resources and the rapidly increasing population and have resulted in migration
and reclamation in Northeast China. Climate, policy, and reclamation constructed an organic chain of response that dominated
the land use/cover change process of Northeast China.
An unjustified dichotomy in the social science literature dealing with displaced populations separates the study of refugees from the study of populations uprooted by development projects. The paper argues that this dichotomy must be overcome by exploring the similarities and differences between these categories of displaced populations. Both bodies of literature, which currently do not 'speak to each other', stand to gain conceptually from overcoming their relative isolation. New trends are signalled regarding the international aid and assistance channelled during the 1980s to refugee and displaced populations. The paper discusses the worldwide growth of development-related population displacements, while in many countries domestic policies and legal frameworks to guide forced dislocation and resettlement are lacking. The differences between relief and development oriented strategies for resettling displaced people are examined with emphasis on the importance of allocating adequate resources for the sustainable socio-economic re-establishment of people displaced by development.
The dominant narrative in a growing literature about China’s environment conceptualizes a series of recent large-scale ecological construction projects, particularly in western China, as evidence of a teleological graduation into eco-rational modernity, in which environmental improvement and economic growth are intertwined in a virtuous, mutually reinforcing circle. Such ecological modernization narratives take for granted both a crisis of ecological degradation, and the premise that the “greening” of the state will have environmental improvement as its primary outcome. The article reviews recent research on ecological construction projects to protect forests and grasslands in China’s west, which have been identified as major components of China’s ecological modernization goals. It demonstrates the limitations of an ecological modernization framework for analyzing these projects, and argues instead for a critical political ecology analysis, which examines the distributive effects of these projects and employs an analytic of governmentality. Ecological construction is more productively understood as a set of discursive practices that authorize differential interventions through processes of internal territorialization, rework the relationship between different categories of citizens and the state, and produce subjects, whose desires may or may not align with those desired by state institutions.
This paper deals with two basic assumptions about migration patterns in Bangladesh. First, it is commonly assumed that poverty and landlessness in rural Bangladesh lead to migration to and settlement in disaster-prone areas along the main rivers or in low-lying areas in the Bay of Bengal. Second, it is also commonly assumed that when people living in these areas experience loss of land, property and income opportunities due to natural disasters, they are forced to seek their livelihood and housing in urban areas. These two assumptions are discussed on the basis of data from a char in Jamuna river and a slum settlement in Dhaka.
This article reports findings from a study of settlement abandonment and the interactions between environmental and non-environmental factors that may give rise to it. Through a modified systematic review of scholarly literature, an inventory of 246 ancient and modern examples of settlement abandonment was generated. Common spatial and temporal parameters were identified and a typology created to summarize environmental and non-environmental drivers common across cases. Dynamic interactions of drivers that lead to a progression from vulnerability to population decline and abandonment were examined in the cases of Plymouth, Montserrat, abandoned due to volcanism in the 1990s; recent rural depopulation in northeastern Iraq and the southern marshes; outmigration from the southern Aral Sea region; and, neighbourhood abandonment and a proposal to convert abandoned lands in Detroit to commercial farming. The study finds that with growing vulnerability to environmental change across many regions, there is greater potential for increased numbers of abandonments. However, abandonment should be seen as only one possible outcome of environment and population interactions that create vulnerability and stimulate environmental migration. The study concludes with a series of observations relevant to anticipating and planning for potential population decline and settlement abandonment in the face of future global environmental change.
The links between environmental change and migration is a theme which has caused much public debate. This debate is driven partially by the lack of empirical research on the linkages and relationship between environment and migration. This article offers a contribution to the limited literature which examines the ways in which migration is linked to environmental push factors. Initial research into the current dynamics of population displacement and migration linked to flooding in the upper reaches of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta was carried out in late 2007. Annual cyclical flooding in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam is a regular event and essential to the livelihoods of people living in the region. Over the last decade, however, there have been unusually large flooding events in the Mekong Delta region which have adversely impacted the lives and livelihoods of local communities. The research aimed to determine whether flooding could be considered a cause for migration or displacement. Results show that the impacts of regular flooding of the Mekong Delta can trigger independent household or individual migration decisions and are a cause for government-initiated resettlement of households. This research contributes to an increased understanding of the role of environmental change/degradation in causing displacement and migration, since forced migration and migration studies have more commonly focused on economic, political and social reasons for population displacement.
One of the areas in migration studies in China that has not been adequately understood is population displacement as a result of environmental deterioration. This paper offers a comprehensive review of recent literature in this area. It focuses on people displacement produced by accelerated environmental deterioration in West China. It briefly reviews the literature on environment-related migration and then discusses the distribution and features of the major ecologically fragile zones. Following is an examination of poverty as an important factor in initiating migration. It examines the processes and some consequences of environment-related displacement and resettlement. Finally, some suggestions on how best to cope with issues of people displacement are addressed.
Food policy should serve humanity by advancing the humane goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. However, these goals have recently been challenged by emerging forces including climate change, water scarcity, the energy crisis as well as the credit crisis. This paper analyses the overall role of these forces and population growth in redefining global food security. Specifically, global water supply and demand as well as the linkages between water supply and food security are examined. The analysis reveals that the water for food security situation is intricate and might get daunting if no action is taken. Investments are needed today for enhancing future food security; this requires action on several fronts, including tackling climate change, preserving land and conserving water, reducing the energy footprint in food systems, developing and adopting climate resilient varieties, modernising irrigation infrastructure, shoring up domestic food supplies, reforming international food trade, and responding to other global challenges.
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification was one of the key conventions emerging from the 1992 Conference on Environment
and Development. At this meeting, inter-governmental organisations, NGOs and scientists agreed that desertification and land
degradation are ‘major economic, social and environmental problems in all regions of the world’ and that they ‘should be addressed
through a United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification’ (Chapter 12, Agenda 21; UNCCD, 1994). This chapter outlines
the early stages of a novel research project that aims to explore the links between this global environmental discourse on
desertification and the practical, local socio-economic impacts and responses to land degradation in the Central Asia region.
It first explores the changing role of science in combating desertification. Second, it provides some background to the UN
Convention to Combat Desertification, highlighting three key features of its approach: decentralisation, participation and
the importance of local knowledge in anti-desertification activities. It then reviews the historical links between the environmental,
social, political and economic dimensions of land degradation and desertification in Central Asia. A programme of activities
is presented next, which is designed to investigate how the international approaches outlined in the UN Convention to Combat
Desertification may impact upon national and local projects and policies to reduce land degradation and improve rural livelihoods.
The paper concludes that there is a growing need for detailed, empirical case study research which reflects more intently
on the tensions between international and local discourses of desertification. This is paramount in order to better understand
the local challenges posed by the desertification issue, as well as contributing towards the creation of more appropriate
and effective mitigation strategies at a regional level.
China is a large country with a population of 1.292 billion, accounting for 1/5 of the world population. However, the geographical
distribution of population is greatly unbalanced. There are many factors contributing to the unbalanced population distribution,
including natural condition, social and economic development, and transportation infrastructure. In this article, we specifically
explore how natural factors (resource and geographical factors) influence the population distribution. We use the multiple
linear regression to analyze how the county population and prefecture (districts under city administration) population density
is influenced by different natural factors. The analysis is conducted at two scales: the national scale and the regional scale
(including east region, northeast region, middle region and west region). Our results show that arable land proportion, precipitation,
elevation, accumulated temperature (also called Effective Accumulated Temperature (EAT), means the sum of daily temperature
for the period of daily mean temperature (Td) above 10°C) and the distance from energy distribution location, the distance
from main rivers are the significant factors for all the counties in China. For the prefectures, the significant impacting
factors include elevation, arable land proportion and distance from the main rivers. For the east region, elevation and arable
land proportion are the significant impacting factors of population distribution. For the northeast region, arable land proportion,
precipitation and accumulated temperature are the significant impacting factors. For the middle region, arable land proportion,
accumulated temperature, distance from energy distribution location and elevation are the significant impacting factors. For
the west region, arable land proportion, precipitation, distance from the main rivers, distance from energy distribution location
and accumulated temperature are the significant impacting factors.