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Jak dnes mainstream bojuje proti „popíračům“ hypotézy o antropogenním globálním oteplování How the mainstream fights against the Hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming “Deniers“ today
Abstract
The scientific hypothesis of Global Warming (GW) and its recent variant Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is not just a question of science anymore as it has becomde a part of politics. Therefore, we can see the consequences of it in our wallets (directly or indirectly). Our paper analyses the development of the GW and/or AGW hypothesis from the point of view of the data. However it also examines what methods the mainstream uses to promote the AGW hypothesis (e.g. increasing of the “environmental“ taxes). The first chapter provides an overview of the GW (AGW) hypothesis development until the Kyoto Protocol. The weakest links of the AGW hypothesis and their alternative solutions are introduced in the second chapter. It concludes that GW can be fully explained by natural processes, which are however not implemented in the climate models. The forms of enforcement of the resolutions adopted by the intergovernmental panel (IPCC) – starting with “environmental” taxes or “environmental” subsidies (for oil seed rape farming, scientific grants) and ending with the information warfare in the media – are covered in the third chapter. The last chapter illustrates how the media war on climate scepticism ignores the standard of the scientific method.
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Spatially resolved global reconstructions of annual surface temperature
patterns over the past six centuries are based on the multivariate calibration
of widely distributed high-resolution proxy climate indicators. Time-dependent
correlations of the reconstructions with time-series records representing
changes in greenhouse-gas concentrations, solar irradiance, and volcanic aerosols
suggest that each of these factors has contributed to the climate variability
of the past 400 years, with greenhouse gases emerging as the dominant forcing
during the twentieth century. Northern Hemisphere mean annual temperatures
for three of the past eight years are warmer than any other year since (at
least) ad 1400.
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography 21 (2006): PA4206, doi:10.1029/2005PA001241. The consequences of the hypothesis that Milankovitch forcing affects the phase (e.g., termination times) of the 100 kyr glacial cycles via a mechanism known as “nonlinear phase locking” are examined. Phase locking provides a mechanism by which Milankovitch forcing can act as the “pacemaker” of the glacial cycles. Nonlinear phase locking can determine the timing of the major deglaciations, nearly independently of the specific mechanism or model that is responsible for these cycles as long as this mechanism is suitably nonlinear. A consequence of this is that the fit of a certain model output to the observed ice volume record cannot be used as an indication that the glacial mechanism in this model is necessarily correct. Phase locking to obliquity and possibly precession variations is distinct from mechanisms relying on a linear or nonlinear amplification of the eccentricity forcing. Nonlinear phase locking may determine the phase of the glacial cycles even in the presence of noise in the climate system and can be effective at setting glacial termination times even when the precession and obliquity bands account only for a small portion of the total power of an ice volume record. Nonlinear phase locking can also result in the observed “quantization” of the glacial period into multiples of the obliquity or precession periods. E.T. is funded by NSF Paleoclimate program, grant ATM-0455470 and by the McDonnell Foundation. P.H. is supported by the NOAA Postdoctoral Program in Climate and Global Change. C.W. is supported by the National Ocean Partnership Program (NOPP). M.E.R. is supported by NSF grant ATM-0455328.
Here, we study the questions why we still live in an interglacial world
and when we should expect the end of the Holocene under natural
conditions (no anthropogenic influence) or under anthropogenic
perturbations (also referred to as "Anthropocene"), questions which
attracted considerable interest in recent years. It was argued that
without earlier anthropogenic activity we would live already in glacial
world (Ruddiman's hypothesis). Tzedakis et al. (Nature Geoscience,
2012), using MIS 19 as the best analogy in terms of the orbital
parameters for the Holocene, suggested that the new glacial inception
would start within the next 1500 years, assuming natural CO2 level of
240 ppm. However, 240 ppm is much lower than preindustrial CO2 level and
CO2 concentrations during several most recent interglacials (starting
from MIS 11). Here, using the comprehensive Earth system model of
intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2, carefully calibrated for the
simulations of the past eight glacial cycles, we show that (i) although
climate conditions during late Holocene were very close to the
bifurcation transition to the glacial climate state (Calov and
Ganopolski, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2005), it is very unlikely that under
pre-industrial CO2 level (280 ppm) glacial inception would occur within
the next several thousand years; (ii) it is likely that the current
interglacial, even without anthropogenic CO2 emission, would be the
longest interglacial during the past million years; (iii) current CO2
level makes new glacial inception virtually impossible within the next
50,000 years; (iv) in agreement with earlier result of Archer and
Ganopolski (Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 2007) based on a conceptual
model of glacial cycles, we found that consumption of a large portion
of available fossil fuel could postpone the next glacial inception by
hundreds of thousand years.
The data set of proxies of past climate used in Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998, "MBH98" hereafter) for the estimation of temperatures from 1400 to 1980 contains collation errors, unjustifiable truncation or extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, geographical location errors, incorrect calculation of principal components and other quality control defects. We detail these errors and defects. We then apply MBH98 methodology to the construction of a Northern Hemisphere average temperature index for the 1400-1980 period, using corrected and updated source data. The major finding is that the values in the early 15th century exceed any values in the 20th century. The particular "hockey stick" shape derived in the MBH98 proxy construction - a temperature index that decreases slightly between the early 15th century and early 20th century and then increases dramatically up to 1980 - is primarily an artefact of poor data handling, obsolete data and incorrect calculation of principal components.
A simple empirical model shows that Earth's surface temperature is most
affected by seasonal change of irradiation in the interior of North
America and Euroasia, and that the highest sensitivity to insolation is
reached in the autumn. Past climates are explained by adjustment of the
cryosphere to changes of insolation in early autumn.
The time series of solar and volcanic activities have been processed to show, mostly by means of statistical characteristics, the exceptional and recurring pattern of these phenomena in the intervals of the exceptional and recurring pattern of solar motion, i.e. in the intervals of the Sun''s motion along the trefoils which reoccur in steps of 178.7 years. Nearly the same sets of five sunspot cycles have been found in the latest trefoil intervals (1730–1780 and 1910–1960), their length being constant and equal to 10 years (cycles No. 15–19). The steadily attenuated volcanic activity have been pointed out in the three latest trefoil intervals. The long-term maxima of surface air temperature occured in the central decades of the trefoil intervals. The results indicate a primary role of solar motion in a causal chain of ST-relations and a need of taking the Solar System as a whole into account to explain climatic changes. The solar motion can be computed in advance. Predictive assesments, so far in form of analogies, have been made: Because the solar motion in the next decades will be chaotic, lower and longer solar cycles (with irregular length), ocurrence of huge volcanic events and a decrease of global surface air temperature can be expected.
We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model
based on astronomical harmonics against all available general circulation
climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century
global surface temperature. The proposed model assumes that the climate is
resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that have been
associated to the solar system planetary motion, mostly determined by Jupiter
and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and
multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from
1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model is found to well
reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is able
to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering
the period 1850-1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely
related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10-10.5, 20-21 and
60-62 year cycles are synchronous to solar and heliospheric planetary
oscillations. Finally, we show how the presence of these large natural cycles
can be used to correct the IPCC projected anthropogenic warming trend for the
21st century. By combining this corrected trend with the natural cycles, we
show that the temperature may not significantly increase during the next 30
years mostly because of the negative phase of the 60-year cycle. The same IPCC
projected anthropogenic emissions would imply a global warming by about 0.3-1.2
K by 2100, contrary to the IPCC 1.0-3.6 K projected warming. The results of
this paper reinforce previous claims that the relevant physical mechanisms that
explain the detected climatic cycles are still missing in the current GCMs and
that climate variations at the multidecadal scales are astronomically induced
and, in first approximation, can be forecast.