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Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies
... Dette peker mot at teorier om teknologiens påvirkning på samfunnets risikobilde kanskje har noe tidløst ved seg og kan derfor bidra til å belyse cyberangrep. Vi presenterer to klassikere fra 1980-tallet for å forklare hvorfor kriser inntreffer: teori om normalulykker (Perrow 1984) og høypålitelige organisasjoner (Weick 1987). Begge teoriene tar utgangspunkt i at teknologisk utvikling også medfører endringer i risikobildet. ...
... Mens hendelser i andre systemer kan håndteres gjennom organisasjonens struktur, er behovene for organisasjonsstruktur her i direkte konflikt med hverandre. En utfordring er likevel «profetien» om at teknologisk utvikling kan gjøre systemer mer komplekse og tett koblede og at vi dermed får flere kriser (Perrow 1984). Perrow diskuterte dette opp mot «år 2000-problemet», mens nyere forskning gir konseptuelle diskusjoner av problemstillinger knyttet til cybersikkerhet (Bambauer 2014) og stordata (Nunan og Di Domenico 2017). ...
... En kritikk av teorien er at virkeområdet er snevert fordi den begrenses til ekstreme hendelser i komplekse og tett koblede systemer (Hopkins 1999). Samtidig, som Perrow selv påpeker, er det uklart hvordan interaksjoner og koblinger kan måles (Hopkins 1999;Perrow 1984). Tolkning av hva som er «normalt» og vektlegging av struktur går igjen i kritikken på tross av at det også en forenkling av teorien (Le Coze 2015). ...
Cyberangrep preger vår samtid. Motivene for cyberangrep er økonomisk vinning, propaganda eller krigføring. Det kan derfor være nærliggende å tenke at digitaliseringen fører til flere, nye og uventede kriser. Hvorfor skjer dette og hvordan skal en organisasjon håndtere framtidige hendelser vi ikke klarer å forutse? Artikkelen presenterer to klassikere innen uønskede hendelser: teori om normalulykker (NAT) og høypålitelige organisasjoner (HRO). Teoriene gir ulike perspektiver på hvorfor kriser inntreffer, og hvordan en organisasjons struktur og kultur kan bidra til å forhindre uønskede hendelser. Kvalitativ metode er benyttet for å studere hendelseshåndtering av cyberangrepet mot programvareleverandøren SolarWinds i en beredskapsorganisasjon. Diskusjonen viser hvorfor vi som følge av digitaliseringen av samfunnet kan forvente hyppig forekomst av uventede hendelser og dermed økt cyberrisiko. Det konkluderes med at struktur og kultur har ulik viktighet i hendelsens faser og at balansegangen mellom de to derfor er viktig.
... Perrow [11] identifies two dimensions which affect the capability of organizations to provide sustained reliable operation of technologies. One of them is interactive complexity (the classic perspective of interactions between elements in the complexity literature), and the other dimension is the amount of coupling (the dimension considers whether dependencies between system elements are loose or tight). ...
... One of them is interactive complexity (the classic perspective of interactions between elements in the complexity literature), and the other dimension is the amount of coupling (the dimension considers whether dependencies between system elements are loose or tight). Perrow [11] claims that from an organizational perspective, the level of coupling and decoupling between the elements of a system forms a crucial factor which in turn influences the speed with which a failure can propagate through a system, which would defeat the possibility to mitigate failures, thus increasing the propensity for cascading failure resulting in ('normal') failure. Understanding the full interactive complexity is near impossible in highly complex systems. ...
... They had a concrete tunnel to seemingly make it easier to manage infrastructures, especially considering the future plans of the Zuid-As. Perrow [11] argues that propensity for 'normal' failure is partly hidden in the interactive complexity of technology and the organizations that are in control of them. A second dimension, according to Perrow [11], which influences the propensity for 'normal' failure is the level of coupling between the organizational and technical technological subsystems. ...
The interdependencies between infrastructures are growing. Engineering decision making that earlier was largely confined to a specific sector now requires more and more understanding of how systems interact: a system-of-systems perspective. The article analyzes the effect of that added complexity in a single case study in de Zuid-As, Amsterdam, in the Netherlands, and relates the findings to the literature on engineering decision making and project management in complex projects. The article concludes that cross-sectoral engineering decision making has an additional level of complexity that requires governance of uncertainty. Despite this challenge being a well-known challenge among infrastructure operators, it is still not recognized for its importance, and it seems to be a neglected element in collaboration. Key is an open approach in the early stages that goes beyond classic cooperative decision making in engineering and project management environments.
... It is ensured by technical, economic and organizational measures. 46. Functionality is a system capability to fulfil tasks exactly as entered. ...
... As the world dynamically evolves, the progressive anthropogenic management already notes that due to the technical facilities´ and the world´ complexities and time changes in conditions that humans do not have the ability to influence, the accidents and failures of technical facilities are a reality with which the anthropogenic management needs to deal [46]. It needs to go on such technical facilities managing that performs well-established tasks during their lifetimes for their safety. ...
... It needs to go on such technical facilities managing that performs well-established tasks during their lifetimes for their safety. Due to the existence of dynamic transformations, the management is foreseen that situations may arise where technical facility becomes dangerous to itself and its surroundings [46]. In order to ensure security for human society and other public assets, it is, therefore, necessary to have the tools to reveal risk sources and to manage emergencies so that their impacts on public assets and on technical facility itself may be minimal. ...
Submitted work “Analysis, management and trade-off with risk of technical facilities“ deals with the all type of risks associated with the technical facilities, particularly with the complex ones, with aim to ensure their safety. It demonstrates the ways of work with risks at phase of identification, analysis, assessment, management and putting under control aimed to the safety of both, the technical facilities and their surround-ings (i.e. their mutual coincidence), and simultaneously respecting the current knowledge that the risks are locally and time-specific. The safety is understood as a property on the level of the whole technical facility, which is determined by the quality of the file of anthropogenic measures and activi-ties aimed at the safe technical facility, and even at its critical conditions. Therefore, at safety make up, the publication proposes to monitor both, the public assets and the technical facility´ assets, and together to consider the diversity of their physical natures, vulnerabilities, and the constituent changes over time; which means contin-uously to solve emerging conflicts. procedures for the control and management of critical sit-uations. The publication “Analysis, management and trade-off with risks of technical facilities“ summarizes problems and shows methods and procedures for their solution based on system concept and present findings and experiences from practice obtained by detail research. It summarizes the results of specific research performed in project “Řízení rizik a bezpečnost složitých technologických objektů (RIRIZIBE)“ CZ.02.2.69/0.0/ 0.0/16_018/000”; detail data and results are in the Czech publication and in the CVUT archives.
... normální [36,37], haváriím může být zabráněno dobrým organizačním projektem a řízením, tj. přístup založený na vysoké spolehlivosti, kterou lze stále zvyšovat. ...
... Procesní informační systémy charakterizujeme dle [37] grafy přiřazenými relacím: ...
... V r. 1978 Barry Turner [36] na základě analýz havárií technických děl vyslovil myšlenku, že složitost systému, kterým je technické dílo, zabraňuje stanovit všechna rizika, která mohou poškodit technické dílo a jeho okolí. Předmětný poznatek rozpracoval a potvrdil Charles Perrow na základě důkladné analýzy jaderné havárie Three Mile Island [37] a také závěry EU v r. 1981, které vedly k vydání direktivy SEVESO [74]. ...
... Sustainable business has become an increasingly global concern, and no more so than for high-hazard organizations, such as energy producers and chemical plants, that have the potential to generate hazardous consequences for a multitude of stakeholders (Carroll et al., 2002;Milosevic et al., 2018;Perrow, 1984). Hazards in these organizations stem from unplanned, unexpected, not immediately comprehensible, and tightly coupled interactions between people, machines, and the environment. ...
... Theoretical sources of hazard observed in the two cases Description of hazard as manifested across the two cases Example from the data Tightly coupled interactions with probability for sudden disruptions (see also : Carroll et al., 2002;Gephart, 2004;Perrow, 1984) Daily operations involving complex, tightly coupled machinery and technology require considerable knowledge, attention, and careful handling. Multiple components exist and interact, where failure in one component may trigger a series of small events, individually unnoticeable but collectively capable of producing considerable environmental hazards Observation recording in Serbia: "The power and complexity of machines participants interact with daily is considerable. ...
The impact of institutional environments on sustainability is well documented in the international business literature. However, how multiple and occasionally conflicting institutional logics shape sustainability as it is practiced by individuals across countries remains undertheorized. Our study contributes to this line of research by examining how multiple institutional logics inform the comprehension of sustainability practices in two high-hazard organizations in the Republic of Serbia and Canada. In doing so, our findings explicate three multi-level mechanisms – pulling down (1st level), relating (2nd level), and aligning (2nd level) – through which individuals in these organizations across two countries construct a localized understanding of sustainability. In both countries, individuals pull down elements of the state and organizational logics to construct meso-level logics they use to comprehend sustainability practices, albeit differently. In Serbia, due to the conflict between the current state logic and dominant high-hazard organizational logic, individuals pull down elements of the high-hazard organizational logic and the enduring legacy state logic to construct a community logic and align sustainability practices with it. In Canada, the state logic complements the high-hazard organizational logic, resulting in individuals pulling down elements of both logics to construct the professional logic and aligning their practice with it. In both countries, due to the dominance of the high-hazard organizational logic, individuals relate their practices to the well-being of others. Based on our comparative case analysis, we create a general model and a country-specific model depicting how individuals embed multiple institutional logics into their sustainability practices.
... A thorough risk management process must consider the possibility of unintended consequences of changes (Perrow 1984). These consequences were detected in both case studies and across all PPLAN levels. ...
... In tightly-coupled 2 systems, SPR are usually built-in, explicitly designed with efficiency concerns in mind. In turn, loosely-coupled 3 systems have naturally embedded significant slack resources and these can be often taken for granted, encouraging waste (Perrow 1984). Figure 3 gives rise to the fifth and last research proposition: ...
Although buffers of inventories, time, and capacity are commonly recommended to mitigate variability in construction, they abstract away the role played by human agency. This study argues for slack as a socio-technical complement to buffers for dealing with variability. The investigation is based on two case studies conducted in construction projects that adopted the Last Planner V R System. Data collection focussed on understanding how slack practices and resources (SPR) were used in production planning and control, and was based on observations, analysis of documents, and interviews. Findings revealed 57 instantiations of slack practices and 8 types of slack resources. Several of these SPR diverge from what are traditionally called buffers , highlighting how the concept of SPR gives visibility to a wider range of variability coping mechanisms. Thus, it is important to make SPR explicit so that managers can reflect on why SPR are necessary, understand how they relate to each other, and assess their unintended consequences. Five propositions are presented, encompassing: how to identify SPR; the variety and general-or context-specific nature of SPR; and the value of maintaining SPR. These propositions contribute to risk management in production planning and control. ARTICLE HISTORY
... One often-cited taxonomy of AI safety issues (Amodei et al., 2016) has been critiqued as taking an overly-instrumental frame (Raji & Dobbe, 2020), a critique we extend to follow-on work focused on ML (Hendrycks et al., 2021). There is a substantial and long-recognized gap between improved component performance and systemic safety (Perrow, 1984); instrumental, componentwise improvement will not enable the safe use of ML. The latter two interventions, while taking a wider view of the problem, are often challenging to extract requirements from or bridge to technical decision-making. ...
... Perrow, however, posits that some systems are so complex and/or tightly coupled that even in the presence of (and not uncommonly because of ) redundancies and fail-safes, they can and do experience unforeseen catastrophic interactions between simultaneous component failures that, though estimated to be of vanishingly small probability, in fact commonly co-occur. He holds that far from being unlikely, accidents of this kind are inevitable, titling his book, "Normal Accidents" (Perrow, 1984). Leveson extends this concept and points out that component failures or human errors are not required for a failure or accident to occur, but instead system failure may result from unforeseen interactions between properly functioning components (Leveson et al., 2009). ...
Many stakeholders struggle to make reliances on ML-driven systems due to the risk of harm these systems may cause. Concerns of trustworthiness, unintended social harms, and unacceptable social and ethical violations undermine the promise of ML advancements. Moreover, such risks in complex ML-driven systems present a special challenge as they are often difficult to foresee, arising over periods of time, across populations, and at scale. These risks often arise not from poor ML development decisions or low performance directly but rather emerge through the interactions amongst ML development choices, the context of model use, environmental factors, and the effects of a model on its target. Systems safety engineering is an established discipline with a proven track record of identifying and managing risks even in high-complexity sociotechnical systems. In this work, we apply a state-of-the-art systems safety approach to concrete applications of ML with notable social and ethical risks to demonstrate a systematic means for meeting the assurance requirements needed to argue for safe and trustworthy ML in sociotechnical systems.
... A normal or system accident is defined as "a failure in a subsystem, or a system as a whole, that damages more than one unit and in doing so, disrupts the ongoing or future activities of the system" (Perrow 1984:66). Perrow (1984) argues that in complex, tightly coupled systems, there are more normal accidents because coupling decreases the buffer between the two components of a system. Tight coupling is a mechanical term that refers to a lack of a buffer between two components of a system. ...
... and recovery. And because of the composition of the system, when a disaster happens, it is rarely a minor incident (Perrow 1984). When the coupling is loose, the system exhibits great resilience. ...
This study was developed in order to arrive at a set of interrelated concepts and empirical ways of measuring social-ecological resilience that are concretely applicable for policy, as well as for
developing intervening programs for social change. The outcome of this research is a set of empirical indicators to measure the concept of social-ecological resilience. The measurement model is developed and applied to U.S. Caribbean and Pacific small island communities and U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastal counties (n=229), but is intended to be applicable across different types of communities with minor adjustments for the specific context.
The first phase of this research resulted in a conceptual framework for the social ecological system and the property of resilience. Next, multiple methodological approaches to indicator construction were applied and directly compared. An iterative methodology was selected and applied to arrive at seven composite indicators of social-ecological resilience: Land cover and use, Waste accumulation and treatment, Housing adequacy, Economic security, Access to support services, Education, and Population diversity. Upon construction, the indicators were applied with two distinct samples of communities. Finally, the indicators were used to construct a community typology to account for the different strengths and weaknesses of small island and coastal communities as assessed by the indicators of social-ecological resilience.
Communities with high scores on social dimensions of resilience have a greater likelihood of having low scores on ecological dimensions. This finding adds evidence to the notion that social and ecological systems are oppositional, but also provides a counterpoint – there are communities that manage to score well in both areas. While societal development and ecological condition may operate with a firm tension, communities are navigating the tension and finding ways to successfully maintain characteristics of resilience. This research is a necessary first step to investigating how some communities are able to balance their social-ecological system while others are not. Ultimately, the measurement of resilience can provide communities of island and coastal states with a way of evaluating their ability to implement, adapt, and/or support policies for change.
http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/25800/
... Relief work was only loosely coupled (see Perrow, 1984), so disintegrated action had no disastrous effects. More surprisingly, it seemed that military personnel even thrived while working alone or in dyads, despite the volatile setting (see Fraher et al., 2017). ...
The relief operations by a military task force in response to Hurricane Dorian presented an empirical puzzle. The task force adapted in a radical and swift way after arrival in the disaster-struck area. Within just a few days, it hardly resembled the organization that had set out to provide relief. The nature and speed of this adaptation could not be explained by the existing literature. Thus, I pose the question: How does radical and swift adaptive organizing in response to unexpected events unfold? The study builds on 31 interviews and rich visual data, consisting of 711 photographs and 12 videos, to shed more light on this process. The main discovery in this paper is that frontline personnel swiftly deconstructed and reconstructed key elements of the organizational structure, producing radical changes in authority, plans, safety standards, routines, and ties. The interim organizational response structure that emerged from this process enabled successful relief operations. The paper contributes to the coordination literature and research on temporary organizations. It also highlights the insights that visual data can provide into processes unfolding in extreme contexts.
... Perrow (1984) analyzed large-scale accidents, which are a problem for society. According to ...
This proposal presents the Sociotechnical Construction of Risks, Ergonomics, and the two 14 principles of the Proactive Approach to Safety, Risks, and Emergencies, the Structured 15 Sociotechnical Approach and Dynamics of Proactive Safety intending to complement traditional 16 risk assessments, and prevent and Mitigating Major and Fatal Negative Events, the in organizations 17 such as cases of the explosion of the space shuttle Challenger, the nuclear accident in Fukushima, 18 the Texas City Refinery and the explosion in the Port of Beirut, among others. To propose these two 19 principles, case studies were developed at Fiocruz, and in organizations, sectors, and activities, a 20 bibliographic review on theses, dissertations, reports from regulatory bodies, books, scientific 21 articles, and media articles, on major and fatal negative events, and ergonomics, socio-technical 22 approach, and resilience engineering. A tragedy prevention course was created, with four free 23 online consultation modules, based on cases of major negative events. These principles redirect the 24 focus from human error to Focus on the Structured Sociotechnical System and Focus on the 25 Dynamics of Proactive Safety. It is proposed that these two principles can provide us with bases for 26 analysis, to prevent and minimize Major and Fatal Negative Events, and are a complement to 27 traditional risk assessments. 28
... See for example works such as:Deacon (1918),Prince (1920),Fritz (1961),Starr (1969),Cornell (1976),Turner (1978),Douglas & Wildavsky (1982),Perrow (1984),Short (1984),Weick (1987),Beck (1992),Dynes (1994) Vaughan (1996. ...
Pandemics are now the focus of research attention in the fields of preparedness and crisis management.Since pandemics are some of the largest crises to occur, an important question becomes “what were thefield of crisis management thinking about pandemic management”. This paper investigates how the fieldof crisis management have incorporated the body of knowledge arising from pandemics into its science(from 1984 to 2019). We performed a scoping review of 4 journals on crisis management and what theyhave written about pandemics (230 papers). The findings are summarized in 8 different categories. Themain result is that the field of crisis management have shown sparse interest in pandemics. We attributethis to factors such as fragmentation of academic sciences when the problem-solving needs integration,perceived incommensurability and the organization of attention. We argue that the COVID-19 pandemiccan provide a basis for posing new questions in research on, and the political debate around, societalvulnerability at large, and not only restricted to recent experiences of particular crises. Finally, we arguethat this will need a stronger integration of research strands and communities, which in turn require theability to ‘connect the dots’ between different sources of knowledge.
... This difficulty is considered to be generated by the growing complexity that characterizes the relationship, at the societal level, between human, ecological and technological systems. As shown by Perrow (1999), disasters are 'normal', unavoidable features of complex, highly connected technical systems. ...
Since its emergence in the 1950s, disaster research has been concerned mainly with the development of operational tools for crises management and intervention, resulting in a prevalence of inductive approaches and a limited interest in more general theoretical issues (Calhoun 2004; Quarantelli 2005; Tierney 2007, p. 504). As a research field, disaster studies is still dominated by approaches (mostly North American) that scarcely dialogue with developments in social theory and critical theory. Moreover, little attention has been paid to the theoretical–empirical research on disasters produced in non-English-speaking countries in either the global south or Europe1. Gaillard (2019) denounced the persistence of a form of hegemony from the global north perspective in terms of both concepts and practices, despite the progressive centrality of the ‘vulnerability’ approach, which has sustained a critical turn in disaster research since it first appeared in the 1970s. In spite of this mixed picture, critical disasters research is today a field of increasing relevance for understanding the socioeconomic dynamics of the globalized world.
... Havacılık bakım ve denetimini iyileştirmenin odak noktası, geleneksel olarak bu görevlerde kullanılan teknolojiyi geliştirme yoluyla gerçekleşmiştir (Latorella ve Prabhu, 2000: 134). Bu teknolojik gelişimin yanında havacılık sektörü, birçok yönden yüksek teknolojili, yüksek riskli ve birbirine sıkı sıkıya bağlı organizasyon yapısında olması sebebiyle "kazaların kaçınılmaz olduğu" görüşüyle çalışmaktadır (Perrow, 1984;Wiegmann and Shappell, 2001: 233). Havacılık, hassas ve detaylı bilgi ve tecrübe gerektirmesi sebebiyle bakım faaliyetlerinden uçuş faaliyetinin gerçekleşmesine kadar olan süreçte her aşmasında insan veya malzeme faktörlü hataya açık bir sektördür. ...
Amaç –Araştırmada, havacılık sektöründe faaliyet gösteren hava aracı bakım personelinin teknostrese marzu kaldığında, verimlilikleri üzerinde nasıl bir etki gösterdiği tespit edilmeye ve bu etkide öğrenen örgüt yapısının nasıl bir farklılık yarattığı belirlenmeye çalışılacaktır. Teknostres kavramı literatürde çok fazla çalışılmamış olması ve havacılık sektörü teknostresin en fazla yaşanıldığı sektör olması sebebiyle araştırma alanı olarak belirlenmiştir.Yöntem –Araştırmanın örneklemi, Balıkesir, Diyarbakır, İzmir ve Eskişehir’de çalışan toplam 331 hava aracı bakım personelidir. Çalışmada veri toplamak amacıyla veri toplama yöntemleri içerisinde olan “anket yöntemi”nden faydalanılmıştır. Toplanan verilerin ölçek geçerlilik ve güvenilirlik, doğrusalregresyon, doğrulayıcı faktör analizi, ANOVA ve T-testi analizleri için SPSS 21 programı kullanılmıştır.Bulgular –Yapılan analizler sonucunda teknostresin alt boyutlarının, verimlilik ve öğrenen örgüt ile ilişkisi olduğu ve teknostesin çalışan verimliliği üzerindeki etkisinde öğrenen örgüt yapısının aracılık rolü olduğu görülmüştür.Tartışma –Hava aracı bakım personeli üzerine yapılan bu çalışmada; personelin teknostrese maruz kaldığında verimlilik ve öğrenen örgüt üzerindeki etkisi incelendiğinde, teknostresin alt boyutlarından bazıları ile istatiksel olarak anlamlı ilişki tespit edilmiş, diğerleri ile anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir. Literatür incelendiğinde benzer sonuçlara rastlanmıştır. Öğrenen örgüt kültürünün örgüt içinde oluşturulmasıyla,teknostresin verimlilik üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerinin giderilebileceği değerlendirilmektedir. Literatürde hava aracı bakım personeli üzerine yapılan çalışmalarda; teknostres ve öğrenen örgüt ilişkisi incelemesine rastlanmaması sebebiyle, yapılan çalışmanın özgün olduğu değerlendirilmektedir. Çalışmanın havacılık, hava aracı bakım personeli ve teknostres ile ilgili bilimsel çalışmalara katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir
... Dependable quality and safety remain a concern globally causing human suffering and of waste of resources [72]. High Reliable Organization (HRO) theory and practice [73][74][75] provides context and justification for use of this construct and has made inroads in healthcare literature [76]) with respect to systems processes, interdependencies among units and levels, and to create a high degree of accountability. To be a reliable organization [77] requires preoccupation with failure, reluctance to simplify interpretations, sensitivity to operations, commitment to resilience and deference to expertise in time of crisis, which implies a focus on interdependence, redundancy, and culture [78]. ...
Background
Universal Health coverage (UHC) is the mantra of the twenty-first century yet knowing when it has been achieved or how to best influence its progression remains elusive. An innovative framework for High Performing Healthcare (HPHC) attempts to address these issues. It focuses on measuring four constructs of Accountable, Affordable, Accessible, and Reliable (AAAR) healthcare that contribute to better health outcomes and impact. The HPHC tool collects information on the perceived functionality of health system processes and provides real-time data analysis on the AAAR constructs, and on processes for health system resilience, responsiveness, and quality, that include roles of community, private sector, as well as both demand, and supply factors affecting health system performance. The tool attempts to capture the multidimensionality of UHC measurement and evidence that links health system strengthening activities to outcomes. This paper provides evidence on the reliability and validity of the tool.
Methods
Internet survey with non-probability sampling was used for testing reliability and validity of the HPHC tool. The volunteers were recruited using international networks and listservs. Two hundred and thirteen people from public, private, civil society and international organizations volunteered from 35 low-and-middle-income countries. Analyses involved testing reliability and validity and validation from other international sources of information as well as applicability in different setting and contexts.
Results
The HPHC tool’s AAAR constructs, and their sub-domains showed high internal consistency (Cronbach alpha >.80) and construct validity. The tool scores normal distribution displayed variations among respondents. In addition, the tool demonstrated its precision and relevance in different contexts/countries. The triangulation of HPHC findings with other international data sources further confirmed the tool’s validity.
Conclusions
Besides being reliable and valid, the HPHC tool adds value to the state of health system measurement by focusing on linkages between AAAR processes and health outcomes. It ensures that health system stakeholders take responsibility and are accountable for better system performance, and the community is empowered to participate in decision-making process. The HPHC tool collects and analyzes data in real time with minimum costs, supports monitoring, and promotes adaptive management, policy, and program development for better health outcomes.
... The certainty of accidents, based on the normal accident theory (NAT) that some system accidents are unavoidable because of systems complexity, i.e., highly interconnected, highly interactive, and tightly coupled components [1], which could lead to rapid propagation and escalation, unexpectedness and uncertainty that may confront the management with an insolvable paradox [2]. These accidents are even more pronounced with socio-technical systems, such as Aircraft, where according to Paglioni and Groth [3], human-machine teams (HMT) interaction investigation, amongst other variables, is carried out in human reliability analysis (HRA). ...
Aircraft is a socio-technical system with some unavoidable accidents due to its complexity. Although Boeing 737 Aircraft was the best-selling commercial airliner, a relatively new variant, Max 8, suffered two rapidly successive mishaps, serving as a motivation for this study. The propensity of 737 to accidents considering some predictors, is, therefore, objectified. Specifically, it examined accidents involving 737 Aircraft variants from 1970 to 2021. Cox proportional hazards regression model and Weibull distribution model were considered but Gompertz distribution models, with the best goodness-of-fit for the data, were applied to estimate Aircraft survival functions and hazard ratios, with interactions per airline, causes of accidents, and fatality rates. The study showed that the survivability of 737–100 outperformed all the other series, while Max 8 had a high hazard ratio when interacting with the airline operator factor, i.e., management or ownership. Reparameterization of Aircraft–predictor interactions show different significance levels in that airline management or ownerships contribute a long way to accidents. The high cost of Aircraft maintenance is a strong determinant of accidents. The reparameterized results further show that pilot errors significantly contribute to accidents. This investigation suggests that although two Max 8 failed with a 100% fatality rate, 737 was generally safe. The study concludes that the trend toward intuitive and accurate components diagnostics beyond the prognostic and health management approach should be invigorated. In addition, despite the rigorous certification process embarked upon by the FAA, it is suggested that intuitive human reliability analysis regarding the human–machine team, such as flight crews and pilots, and the human failure events be further entrenched in quantifying failure events.
... When each expert area's organizing form mirrors their respective IT systems, the result is multiple systems that are poorly integrated or non-integrated (Cebul et al., 2008;Miller and Tucker, 2014). This is often referred to as tight coupling (Perrow, 2011), which is understandable since standard procedures are an important part of expertise practice (Weick, 1976). The drawbacks caused by tight coupling lead to unmanageable IT architectures that are less configurable, and more difficult to change (Tilson et al., 2010). ...
Digital transformation is demanding for incumbent organizations such as healthcare, where legacy-based IT architectures challenge the establishment of effective digital services. We refer to this as the IT silo problem, where multiple non-consolidated IT systems are implemented to support expert practices. In this paper, we analyze this challenge using a mirroring lens. Our research question is, how can we create efficient digital services, utilizing the existing legacy systems in healthcare IT architectures? Our empirical evidence comes from a Norwegian case and contributes to the literature on IT architecture within Healthcare. First, we demonstrate how strict mirroring leading to sub-optimization and silofication is a major cause for the presence of IT silos. Second, we describe a process towards adaptive mirroring, and the resulting adaptive mirroring architecture. Adaptive mirroring is an architectural combinatory device that facilitates the design and use of efficient services, while also improving the flexibility of IT architectures.
... As mentioned by Perrow [84], "normal" accidents are complex, with high relevance for human and organizational factors [85]. This, in fact, has been identified by Antão and Guedes Soares [24,28,36]. ...
The paper assesses the contribution of specific Risk Influencing Factors (RIFs) towards the occurrence of ship collision accidents. The approach adopted is inspired by the Cox proportional hazard regression model and combines a Bayesian rule and the least-squares method to assess the influence of risk factors on the collision probability based on historical data of collision accidents worldwide and information of the world's merchant fleet. For the quantitative assessment, a global sample involving 936 collision events from the IMOs GISIS database for the period 2005-2017 is used. Additionally, world fleet statistics are analysed and compared to collision accidents statistics. Based on these data sets, six Risk Influencing Factors are assessed with a direct impact on the collision probability, namely Ship length, Ship type, age of the ship, Classification Society, flag and geographical area. The results show that the Risk Influencing Factors having the greater impact on ship collisions are the ship type and the geographical area.
... G. Leveson, 2016). Synonym: Normal accident (Mitroff & Alpaslan, 2003;Perrow, 1999) ...
We present a comprehensive resilience glossary, comprising a set of 91 definitions of resilience-related terms used in the context of critical infrastructures. The definition and use of many of these terms, as well as the term resilience itself, shows an enormous variability in the literature. Therefore, we draw from the diverse pool of published definitions, integrate multiple contrasting views, compare the individual terms, and provide references to adjoining or contesting views, to create a clear resilience terminology. This terminology outlines a specific understanding of resilience which supports the effective assessment and management of the resilience of critical infrastructures. The two central elements of this understanding are that (1) resilience is the ability of a system to deal with the impacts of unspecific and possibly unforeseen disruptive events, and that (2) this ability comprises three pillar capacities whose quality can be extracted from performance curves.
... Disasters, as Charles Perrow (1984) notes, have become 'normal events' in the post-industrial era. In Japan, a country historically prone to earthquakes and tsunamis, disaster is both immanent and constitutive of social life and political institutions. ...
This article is based on ethnographic research conducted in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011. The paper analyses how the interplay between the state, the citizenry, and particular radiation technologies defined the shifting boundaries of safety after the fallout and its disruptions. Drawing on James Scott’s notion of legibility, I analyse the Japanese state’s deployment of dosimeters, maps, and monitoring posts, which generated myriad data that were translated into the legibility of radiation, whereby the enactment of new boundaries of safety and the remaking of the Japanese state became feasible. Previous studies of the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters indicated that ordinary people, if not precisely victimized, have limited capacities to make their claims and confront powerful authorities. In Iitate, I trace citizens’ responses to incorporating accessible and affordable technologies that rendered the state’s boundaries of safety leaky, immanent, and continually renegotiable, whereby ordinary people are empowered to enact alternative ways of seeing and perceiving radiation. I use the notion of ‘enlivening’ to differentiate citizens’ data from those produced by the state and suggest how the environment has re-emerged as an experimental field generative of new relations between villagers’ lives and a diversity of things and organisms.
... He employs methods from the philosophy of science to construct a notion of "epistemic accident". 28 On the problem of complexity in nuclear and industrial safety, see Perrow's (1999) theory of "normal accidents". 29 France is currently one of the last countries, along with Russia and India, to reprocess spent fuel at a large scale. ...
In this paper, I use a theoretical framework inspired by Simondon to analyze the closed fuel cycle strategy implemented by the French nuclear industry in the 1970's. I confront the technocratic conception of technical ensembles, which sees them as the instantiation of a power over nature, with their technological understanding as systems of operations, i.e., points of mediation between technical invention and the natural environment. I argue that the closed fuel cycle strategy can be understood as relying on an imaginary ecology. I propose here a form of critical epistemology, which I compare with Jasanoff's theory of sociotechnical imaginaries, leading to a sociopolitical comprehension of the social efficiency and motives of such a representation. Finally, I question the complementarity conditions between those two frameworks, one normative and the other explanatory.
... Two apparent schools of thought exist. One school of thought held by TEPCO (the company in charge of Fukushima) argues that the Fukushima catastrophe was an unavoidable outcome of a natural disaster as it was "beyond the conceivable hypothetical possibilities" (soteigai in Japanese), which is a view previously held by those who believe in normal accident theory (NAT), a term coined by Perrow (1984) that refers to accidents that are so complex by nature that they cannot be foreseen or stopped. ...
Term humanitarian operation (HO) is a concept extracted from the need to perform supply chain operations in special, risky, and critical events. Understanding and implementing operations under such conditions is a strategic responsibility. Due to its importance, we design a framework for organizational learning from major incidents through root cause analysis. The case studies contain a purely industrial disaster at Bhopal and a mixed industrial-natural disaster at Fukushima. An approach is proposed for organizational safety by incorporating techniques related to root cause analysis applied to one case study. Moreover, we employ the analytic hierarchy process, which is applied to the second case study. We incorporate operations management models to analyse data related to two major disasters. The case studies in two organizations are then compared with respect to their causes and effects along with the models adopted to support HO& crisis management (CM). The contribution is the use of hybrid modelling techniques to analyse disasters in terms of humanitarian operations and crisis management.
... These align with the notions of "bouncing back" and "bouncing forward" as later noted by Manyena et al. (2019). Focus shifted from external threats to internal organizational reliability with the development of Normal Accident Theory (NAT) (Perrow, 1984) and High-Reliability Organizing Theory (HROT) (Roberts, 1990;Weick, 1993). These present fundamentally different views of what the literature refers to as "accidents." ...
Much research on organizational resilience has focused on the intraorganizational capacity that enables positive adjustment to disruption. Yet, when seen as open systems, organizations are highly interdependent and interconnected with many other actors. This raises the question of how interorganizational relationships (IORs) affect organizational resilience. We explore this using a novel inductive two‐stage approach incorporating fuzzy cognitive mapping to identify the relational determinants of organizational resilience in the context of Chinese business service firms. Using this technique reveals five relational dimensions, which we label relational competence, innovative assimilation, integrative trustworthiness, identity constraints, and asymmetry. The analysis also shows how these interrelate to either positively or negatively affect organizational resilience. This is a new way of understanding organizational resilience and shows how it is determined by a complex interplay between IOR attributes in the external relational environment of the organization.
... The same framework of Eq.(2) can be extended to two (or more (Zuparic et al., 2021)) forces or populations in competition with each other. Two elements quantified here mathematically are well documented as qualitative properties of decision-making and organisations: the cyclicity of individual decision-making, in the Perception-Action cycle of cognitive psychology (Neisser, 1976) or the Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) loop of military and business strategy (Osinga, 2006); and the role of loose and tight coupling in organisations as articulated by (Weick, 1976), (Perrow, 2011) and (Hollenbeck & Spitzmueller, 2012). This model thus brings long articulated ideas in organisational theory into a dynamical mathematical model. ...
The outcomes of warfare have rarely only been characterised by the quantity and quality of individual combatant force elements. The ability to manoeuvre and adapt across force elements through effective Command and Control (C2) can allow smaller or weaker forces to overcome an adversary with greater resource and fire-power. In this paper, we combine the classic Lanchester combat model with the Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model for phase oscillators on a network to create a flexible Networked-Lanchester-C2 representation of force-on-force military engagement. The mathematical model thus unifies three of the military warfighting `functions': fires, manoeuvre and C2. We consider three illustrative use-cases, and show that an analytical treatment of a reduced model characterises global effects in the full system. For inhomogeneous forces we observe that with appropriate balance between internal organisational coupling, resource manoeuvrability and even weaker lethality the force can be adaptive to overcome an initially stronger adversary.
... One of the cornerstones is therefore appropriate safety training. Perrow (Perrow, 1999) denotes that it is not unusual for a deck officer to remain aghast and silent, while his captain grounds the ship or collides with another. Propagating the training and enhance the non-technical skills of the crews via an appropriate crew resource management has been recognised by the IMO in the STCW and the ISM code. ...
This report analyzed the impact of various organizations and stakeholders in the marine industry on the safety of shipping. Different research methods, including literature studies, data analysis, and interviews with ship management companies, were used to study the organizational impact on the human factor in shipping. The results of the study showed a strong correlation between various organizational influences and the chance of having or not having incidents with a vessel. The study found that ship owners, ship managers, ship operators, insurance companies, ship yards, classification societies, flag states, and vetting inspections and port state control all had a statistically significant impact on safety. The study also found that various organizations had an impact on the ship's safety during the design phase, and that ships between a certain age range were more likely to be involved in accidents. The report concludes that different quantitative and qualitative methods can be used to study the safety culture and organizational impact on safety, and that management participation and involvement in work and safety activities, as well as frequent, informal communications between workers and management, are critical behaviors. The report suggests improvements based on sharing of knowledge across the industries, management commitment and style, the implementation of safety systems, communication issues, the supportive environment and employee involvement.
This report aims to analyse the impact of the various organisations and stakeholders in the marine industry on the safety of shipping. The research problem addressed is the organisational impact on the human factor in shipping.
Different research methods have been used. The study compromises a literature study on what has been done in this regards in other industries, a data analysis coupling different databases in a unique way together to derive the impact of the different stakeholders on accident frequencies and finally an interview/ data collection part from ship management companies.
The results of the study can be summarised as that there is a strong impact of various
Organisational influences on safety can be shown via this analysis are ship owners, ship managers, ship operators (including their office location), insurance companies, ship yards, classification societies, flag states, and even vetting inspections and port state control. All of these show a statistical significant correlation to the chance of having or not having incidents with a certain vessel.
Speaking in terms of latent factors it becomes obvious that various organisations have an impact on the ship’s safety, whose decision, for instance in the design phase of the vessel have an impact on safety.
Some results might be obvious intuitively like that ships between a certain age range are more likely to be involved in accidents (10-15 years of age). Others are less obvious such as that ship owners or ship managers in many western countries are more likely running ships involved in accidents. All of the results presented here are statistically significant, but the causal influence or direction cannot be scientifically proofed.
Conclusions based on this study can be summarized as:
Different quantitative and qualitative methods have been suggested based on the literature study and used in order to study the safety culture and organizational impact on safety. Specifically, management participation and involvement in work and safety activities, as well as frequent, informal communications between workers and management, are recognized as critical behaviours.
The category “human factor accidents” is the predominant category when it comes to “causes” in the databases used. Looking into details of causes in the database, quite a share of the incidents can be directly connected to latent or organisational deficiencies such as heavy workload, inadequate training, improper ergonomics, the use of violence, assault, etc. and inadequate staffing. Even in other categories the latent factors are underlying and could be identified as contributing factors as well as those connected to the management onboard. There are uncertainties connected with the use of such databases for identifying latent errors, but the analysis intended only to give a first indication. So it is rather a question on where the human factor has its most significant influence on the ship, on the bridge or onshore?
Studying the Port State Controls some general conclusions can be drawn. The PSC have a positive effect on detecting sub-standard vessels and detain or ban them. The detention rates are decreasing in the latest years giving hope to believe that the standards worldwide improve. There is a huge difference of outcome based on e.g. the flag state, ship type, classification society, a fact that seems to be accepted within the industry, but does not directly follow a law of nature.
Additionally it can be concluded that some vessel types are more likely to be involved in accidents, indicating that there is a difference on how shipping companies handle vessels and that there is a close link to the handling and general acceptance of different ship standards, crew standards, safety management, equipment and standards, and maintenance levels of ships.
Improvements are often suggested based on sharing of knowledge across the industries, Management Commitment and Style, the implementation of Safety Systems, Communication issues, the Supportive Environment and Employee Involvement. Leading objective indicators of safety could not be identified across organisations in the shipping industry. The indicators that were found cannot be said to be valid since they are largely based on data of poor comparability and far from objective.
Most of the problems that the authors encountered can be traced to the aim to find common indicators by involving several different sectors of shipping companies, as the definitions of concepts used in their safety work vary considerably. Hence the authors draw the conclusion that in order to enable safety research, collaboration and comparison between different shipping companies in the future there is a need to reduce the diversity of definitions that are used within the shipping industry. Even though the method used in this part of the project proved to have a lot of weaknesses, the author’s opinion is that there is a need for a future development towards a more proactive way to manage safety in shipping. As opposed to how safety is measured today, with lagging key performance indicators, the authors believe that there needs to be a development towards a measurement of safety as the presence of something positive. The author’s opinion is that the research community should continue to develop the usefulness of leading objective indicators and that organisations can contribute to this development by implementing them as a complementary tool in their safety management systems.
This chapter introduces the approach of the book towards the ethics of artificial intelligence. A brief overview of artificial intelligence is given with an outline of how heated debates about ethical issues can arise. Some different strategies for addressing these issues are outlined. The mere imposition of regulations and rules does not constitute a good approach to ethics, which should encompass many considerations, including the best ways to live. Ethical discussions should embrace contrasting voices, and we need to recognise that the very technologies in question may shape how we think about ethics. AI raises a large variety of ethical questions related to many factors, including the range of domains in which it is applied, the speed of development, its embeddedness in much everyday technology, and the ways in which it is acting to modify and transform the manner in which we interact with each other and the world. AI ethics also requires us to think deeply about the nature of ethics and about ourselves. The book will include considerations of methodology in ethics, ethical theories and concepts, cases and exercises, and the need for both bottom-up and top-down thinking.KeywordsAI ethicsArtificial intelligenceApplied ethicsTechnology ethicsEthics washing
This chapter sidesteps the pathologizing discourse around stuttering to consider communication in terms of the accident. It argues that stutterers “communicate by accident” in two ways. First, stuttering interrupts linear, goal directed processes and creates pile-ups and other accidents of information-in-transmission. But second, people who stutter often say things they didn’t fully intend and thereby express an involuntary force of life. By tracing the structural conditions of information accidents that get unjustly burdened upon disabled individuals, this chapter rethinks the scene of the accident from the model of communication ritual and suggests that dysfluent accidents might not be a matter of technical difficulty defined by narrow problems like entropy, but socio-cultural dramas that reveal contending forces and desires.KeywordsCommunicationSpeech DisabilityStutteringDysfluencyAccidentsTransmission model of CommunicationRitual
This article presents a content analysis of news coverage of three environmental disasters: the 2014 Mount Polley mine leak, the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. The aim is to better understand how political actors talk about industrial environmental disasters in their aftermath. Since most people understand dramatic events through news media, an examination of post-disaster media framing may begin to shed light on the variation of public response after disasters. Specifically, the findings challenge some prevailing assumptions about nonviolent protest mobilization and prompt a further investigation of the role of uncertainty in political participation.
As crime impinges on successful place management, and given place managers possess considerable powers, why do some place managers allow a great deal of crime on their properties? We use a typology of place managers, the concept of super controllers, and the distribution of costs to answer this question. In most cases, super controllers provide strong incentives to place managers to fight crime. In most circumstances, crime is sufficiently costly that place managers have their own incentives to fight crime. But for a relatively few place managers, external and internal incentives align to make it easier for them to tolerate crime. It is at their places that crime concentrates.KeywordsCosts of crime Direct losses Enablers Guardians Handlers Prevention costs Promotors Reactors Reputational losses Super controllers Suppressors
Many organisational officials agree that most of the incidents in the field happen due to undesirable human performance (or human error). So, to maintain safety and efficiency at work where human subjects are involved, it is necessary to have in-depth knowledge about human performance analysis and assessment. This article reviewed human performance from its different facets to understand it and find techniques available to help manage it. To review this subject, we have followed a user-friendly, replicable technique. After the intense review, we noticed a need for more adaptable technologies in system safety, where the work can only be accomplished with human involvement. This review helps researchers and has the capability to advance studies both in the engineering psychology and human reliability fields. It also assists the novice in the organisational management team in understanding essential parameters responsible for human performance in order to improve human work safety and efficiency.
When industries fail to address warnings adequately, risk situations may manifest into crises. Although the U.S. swine industry planned thoroughly for potential infectious disease outbreaks among the animal population, COVID-19 highlighted a planning gap: What happens if the humans working to keep the industry operational can no longer work? This oversight ultimately resulted in a crisis event impacting all aspects of the U.S. swine industry. This study examines the process of engaged learning from failure that took place via retrospective accounts provided in interviews with 18 industry subject-matter experts. Lessons learned, practical applications, and areas for future research suggest that engaged learning values diverse perspectives and, ultimately, promotes meaningful systemic change. Conversely, organizations opting to disengage during or after crises are likely to repeat mistakes and experience similar crises in the future.
Risk is often understood as a purely bad thing and, as result, something that must be avoided. However, risk taking might lead to big rewards.
Almost every human activity (and even inactivity) involves risk; societies and individuals have recognised risk exposure as a normal aspect of life. The understanding and social acceptability of scientific breakthroughs and new technologies depend on the correct understanding of risks, in order to avoid unfounded fears. Sciences and techniques that analyse and describe risks are relatively new and are still in development, leading in some cases to criticisms and even condemnation of risk assessment results.
This book is addressed to both experts and lay-people interested in understanding risk, it does not intend to analyse or discuss risk assessment methodologies, it aims is to apprehend risk ideas, theories and models. So, critically reviews some of the approaches that have been put forward to assess risk, pointing out some common limitations and pitfalls that biases the risk assessment processes, and provides some hints that could lead to improving the final results of risk assessments.
My writings embed the study of political behavior in psychology, history, and philosophy. Psychology offers insights not only into individual and group behavior, but also into human motives beyond appetiteappetite. It also problematizes the concept of reasonreason and situates it in cultural context. History reveals how culture and epoch determine which human drives dominate and how they are channeled. Yoked to psychology, it alerts us to how each culture and epoch confront different kinds of challenges that have profound implications for political behavior. Political philosophy directs our attention to the big questions of human existence, most notably, how should societysociety be organized and who should rule?
How to cite this article: Rabbi MRU, Alam ABMS and Moniruzzaman M (2022). Occupational health and safety related knowledge, attitude and practice among metal workers of Bogura city. Compliance with the occupational health and safety (OHS) measures at workplace is an important step towards providing a healthier welding workplace especially in developing countries like Bangladesh where such measures are commonly not well-considered. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitude, and practice of occupational health and safety among metal workers. We conducted a cross-sectional study among the 424 metal workers who were working in the different wards of Bogura city, Bangladesh. Data was collected through face-to-face interviews using a standard structured questionnaire which included demographic characteristics, and questions specifically designed to assess the knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) of the study subjects. Knowledge and attitude were measured using composite scores and data were analyzed using SPSS. About 71% of the respondents had good knowledge about occupational health and safety, 61.6% of the respondents had a favorable attitude and 72.6% of the respondents had good practice about occupational health and safety. Most of the workers (53.5%) were 22-27 years old and 42.9% completed primary school. Regarding their work environment, 90.3% reported the presence of excessive dust, 85.1% reported disturbingly high sound and 50.2% reported radiation from welding. Only 32.55% knew that exposure to chemicals (inhaled sprays, spilled on body, etc.) during work causes a problem on health. Only 17.5% and 29.7% of the respondents reported that they had training on OHS before they started work and within the last one year, respectively. The overall knowledge, attitude, and practice related to OHS and metal workers in Bogura pose a public health concern. This calls for urgent intervention in providing on-the-job training as well as implementing a safer work environment, medical checkups, and improved pre-service training for new staff.
The article presents a comparative study of shale gas media debates in Germany and Poland. Drawing from the Sociology of Knowledge Approach to Discourse (SKAD), it addresses discursive conflicts over the use of hydraulic fracturing and its environmental impacts in both countries. The authors relate their analysis to the theoretical debate that emerged in the 1990s in French sociology concerning the question of “green justifications” that form a specific way of how social actors intervene, dispute, and build compromises in public discussions to protect non-human entities. Referring to these discussions, this article identifies several ecological justification clusters and the associated social actors that are ‘compromised’ or enclosed in existing orders of worth.
Total Respect Management is a systemic methodology, based on improved leadership, management using ISO 31000 and continuous improvement, to pursue and achieve sustainable safety and performance in organizations.
Leadership development is achieved by improved systems thinking and management of objectives is achieved by well-understood and fully implemented ISO 31000, which is the central working component in this methodology.
The “New View” of occupational safety is gaining increased attention within both the construction industry and its associated academe. With the potential to overcome the current plateau in accident rates and support the further enhancement of occupational safety on sites, the “New View” offers an alternative approach to more traditional command driven safety management and instead takes a sociotechnical perspective, valorising the workers and acknowledging their contributions to the system in the form of adaptability and resilience. Yet empirical research of “New View” thinking and practice within construction is lacking. Meaningful research in this space demands non-positivistic approaches able to reveal nuanced and local insights able to inform and illuminate “New View” practices and the contexts in which they could potentially be implemented on sites. Here, we make a methodological contribution with the aim to advance empirical research in this space. Social practice theory is employed and evaluated as an approach able to make such a useful contribution. Through the exploration and explication of the block of “site safety practice,” we demonstrate the utility of this theoretical approach for “New View” researchers, whilst also making a fundamental contribution to knowledge in the form of insights of the local and situated contexts, in which “New View” thinking could be practically applied.
W artykule prezentujemy cztery strategie socjologii wobec społecznej złożoności oraz wobec rozwoju nauk o złożoności. Strategia pierwsza sprowadza się do ogłoszenia przez socjologię własnego bankructwa lub postawienia się w roli skromnego konsorcjanta w ramach transdyscyplinarnych przedsięwzięć badawczych. Strategia druga to podkupienie stylu eksplanacyjnego i kultury metodologicznej nauk o złożoności. Strategia trzecia to zaciąganie u teorii złożoności długu terminologicznego. Strategia czwarta zaś, najtrudniejsza, to rozwijanie własnej, socjologicznej teorii złożoności. Główne pojęcia: złożoność; teoria złożoności; nauki o złożoności. Wprowadzenie Błyskawicznie rosnąca złożoność społeczeństwa staje się dzisiaj jego najważniejszą, najbardziej "centralną" cechą, która je zarazem najlepiej charakteryzuje i najwięcej o nim mówi. Brzmi to już właściwie jak truizm. Wszyscy to wiemy, wszyscy zdajemy sobie z tego sprawę, choć rozumiemy złożoność bardzo rozmaicie: jako nakładanie się na siebie wielu różnych "logik" i "racjonalności", jako gęstnienie i komplikowanie się relacji społecznych i powiązań międzyinstytucjonalnych, jako nowe sposoby wiązania ze sobą wielu obszarów świata społecznego, o których przyzwyczailiśmy się myśleć jak o autonomicznych, lub jako wielość splątanych ze sobą czynników wpływających na nasze codzienne wybory, z których oddziaływania nawet nie zdajemy sobie sprawy. Z drugiej jednak strony wydaje się, że wciąż mamy skłonność zachowywać się-jako socjologowie-tak, jakby niewiele lub zgoła nic się nie zmieniło. Mówiąc innymi słowy, mimo iż przyjęliśmy do wiadomości złożoność, to jednak-jeśli tylko da się-wolimy rozumieć i badać społeczeństwo po staremu. Po staremu, czyli tak, jakby kategorie analityczne stworzone u progu nowoczesności w zupełności nam wystarczały, jakbyśmy nie potrzebowali nowego języka, który (przynajmniej) próbowałby lepiej oddać zachodzące na naszych oczach zmiany.
Skondensowana wersja tekstu została zaprezentowana jako wprowadzenie do jednej z sesji plenarnych XV Zjazdu Socjologicznego w Szczecinie, 14 września 2013 roku. Autorzy dziękują recenzentowi "Studiów Socjologicznych" za inspirujące uwagi do tego tekstu.
The book represents the author's aspiration for the study of critical infrastructure, and looking at previous publications in this and related fields, it is evident that there are not a large number of similar publications on the Bosnian-Herzegovinian market. The work is the result of several years of research, selection, assessment and ranking in order to obtain a systematic overview of critical infrastructure in Bosnia and Herzegovina and region. The book has a useful value not only for experts who deal with this issue, but also for security faculties students, faculties of health and safety, law faculties and related ones who are close to this issue. The book is written in a popular way, but it is supported by numerous relevant facts and references. Through a practical and understandable book, this area becomes available for analysis, comparisons, presentations. Its social usefulness is unquestionable because it is an extremely high-quality publication published in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The manuscript is logically divided into several units that can be, with minor refinements, specially presented to the professional and scientific public. The presented manuscript is satisfactory in terms of its structure. The composition of the manuscript is divided into seven parts. Studying the contents of this book will certainly benefit both the professional and scientific public, as well as students. Also, the book will find its place among: investigators, prosecutors, judges, lawyers and other interested parties. In terms of methodology, the book meets scientific criteria, and the literature used is adequate and correctly cited.
Recension:
Akademic prof.dr. Nedzad Korajlic
Knjiga predstavlja težnju autora za izučavanje kritične infrastrukture, te sagledavajući dosadašnja izdanja iz ove i srodnih oblasti, vidljivo je da na bosansko-hercegovačkom tržištu nema veliki broj sličnih izdanja. Djelo je rezultat višegodišnjih istraživanja, selekcije, procjena i rangiranja kako bismo dobili sustavan pregled kritične infrastrukture u Bosni i Hercegovini i regionu. Knjiga ima upotrebnu vrijednost ne samo za stručnjake koji se bave ovom problematikom, već i za studente fakulteta sigurnosti, zaštite na radu, pravnih fakulteta i srodnih kojima je ova problematika bliska. Knjiga je pisana na popularan način, ali je potkrijepljena mnogobrojnim relevantnim činjenicama i referencama. Kroz praktičnu i razumljivu knjigu, ova oblast postaje dostupna za analize, usporedbe, prezentacije. Njezina društvena korisnost je neupitna jer je riječ o izuzetno kvalitetnom izdanju objavljenom u Bosni i Hercegovini. Rukopis je logično raspoređena u nekoliko cjelina koje mogu da budu uz manje dorade i posebno predstavljene stručnoj i naučnoj javnosti. Predočeni rukopis je po svojoj strukturi zadovoljavajući. Kompozicija rukopisa je podijeljena u sedam dijelova. Izučavanje sadržaja ove knjige sa sigurnošću će koristiti kako stručnoj, tako i naučnoj javnosti, kao i studentima. Također, knjiga će naći svoje mjesto među: istražiteljima, tužiteljima, sudijama, advokatima i drugim zainteresiranim stranama. U metodološkom pogledu knjiga zadovoljava naučne kriterije, a korištena literatura je adekvatna i korektno citirana.
Recenzent:
Akademik prof.dr. Nedžad Korajlić
L’objectif de la thèse est de valider la pertinence concrète d’un exercice de pensée consistant à lire les simulations de gestion de crise comme un jeu (Henriot 1983, 1989), et à identifier les manifestations ludiques et les leviers pour agir sur eux, à travers un protocole d’observation qui limite les risques de surimposer la catégorie mentale du jeu là où elle n’a pas sa place (Harviainen 2013).En effet, la capacité des jeux à servir une ambition pédagogique est bien établie (Winnicott 1975, Piaget 1945, Brougère 1995, Daniau 2005, Alvarez 2007, Hamayon 2012, 2015), et les simulations et les jeux sont désormais courants en matière de préparation à la gestion de crise. IMT Mines d’Alès développe depuis des années un simulateur pédagogique de cellule communale de gestion de crise (Tena-Chollet 2012, Lapierre 2016, Limousin 2017, Frealle 2018, Sauvagnargues et al. 2019). Pendant 2 à 6 heures, une dizaine de participants sont placés dans une situation de crise virtuelle et doivent recueillir des informations qui leur permettent de comprendre la situation et ses évolutions, prendre les décisions et délivrer des instructions à des opérateurs susceptibles d’agir sur le terrain, et ce, en résistant au stress, à la pression d’autorités supérieures et aux médias.Le parti-pris de la thèse est de cerner au mieux la nature ludique de la simulation de gestion de crise, malgré le fait que l’engagement des participants dans le jeu n’est pas totalement conscient (Huizinga 1938, Caillois 1958). Nous proposons le concept de ‘’ludicité’’, pour désigner les manifestations d’une attitude ludique (Henriot 1989) dans une situation qui n’est pas déclarée comme étant un jeu.Nous mettons au point un protocole d’observation de la ludicité mobilisant toute une palette d’instruments permettant d’observer ce qui se joue dans plusieurs simulations. La vidéo-analyse qualitative (Knoblauch 2012) des effusions émotionnelles (Goffman 1961) qui libèrent une tension entre la simulation et la réalité qui lui sert de modèle, y tient une place centrale en lien avec une typologie en vingt-six manifestations d’attitudes ludiques prévisibles (Franck 2012, Kapp 2013, Suits 2014, etc).L’analyse permet de confirmer que la ludicité se trouve bien dans les simulations elles-mêmes, et pas simplement dans le regard de l’observateur, et de valider la pertinence de la typologie proposée et l’efficacité du protocole mis au point. Elle met également en évidence des structures de l’espace-temps ludique ainsi que l’existence de fonctions ludiques activant la dynamique de jeu au sein de la mécanique de la simulation (Van Gennep 1909, Harviainen 2012). Elle explore enfin les émotions éprouvées (Pelissolo 2007), notamment les plaisirs ludiques et ce que les joueurs mettent en jeu durant la simulation, entre engagement et distance (Mermet & Zaccaï-Reyners 2015), entre ludicité et lucidité.A l’issue de ce travail, les limites du protocole d’observation sont discutées, et les moyens d'activer les cadres ludiques de la simulation (Lieberoth 2015) sans dénaturer la simulation sont envisagés.
Established in 2006 by the Fraunhofer Group for Defense and Security, the yearly Future Security Research Conference has become one of the world’s main forums for the discipline of civil security research. Covering a wide range of research topics, the conference and its proceedings provide a unique, one-stop opportunity to gather a concise and comprehensive overview of the field.
We are very grateful to the researchers from all over the world who have chosen the Future Security as their forum to discuss their results. 134 outstanding scientific contributions were submitted from all six continents among them submissions from Brazil, India, the USA and 18 European countries. Of these, 75 papers were selected for oral presentation in 17 technical sessions and 34 for poster presentation. We sincerely thank the members of the program committee for reviewing the papers and helping to put together such an excellent program.
The conference also heavily involves top-level representatives of end-users, industry, SMEs, European and national research funding bodies. The keynote and panel topics reflect a high interest in maintaining and improving security in a dynamically and disruptively changing world together with research and academia. The concept of resilience of critical infrastructures and in crisis management as one of the most dynamic topics in security research provides one of the leading themes of the conference.
The present proceedings resulted in more than 700 pages of technical text documenting the ongoing and increasing high level of commitment of the scientific civil security research community. For the first time, besides the printed proceedings, the conference proceedings are published by Fraunhofer e-prints via Open Access for further increasing their scientific impact and accessibility (www.eprints.fraunhofer.de).
We thank the dedicated authors, the interested conference attendees, the representatives of end-users, SMEs, industry and the national, European and global representatives of research funding agencies, the respectable members of the program committee, the committed program and conference management and their teams and the Fraunhofer publishing house.
This Handbook examines the study of failure in social sciences, its manifestations in the contemporary world, and the modalities of dealing with it – both in theory and in practice. It draws together a comprehensive approach to failing, and invisible forms of cancelling out and denial of future perspectives.
Underlining critical mechanisms for challenging and reimagining norms of success in contemporary society, it allows readers to understand how contemporary regimes of failure are being formed
and institutionalized in relation to policy and economic models, such as neoliberalism. While capturing the diversity of approaches in framing failure, it assesses the conflations and shifts which have
occurred in the study of failure over time.
Intended for scholars who research processes of inequality and invisibility, this Handbook aims to formulate a critical manifesto and activism agenda for contemporary society. Presenting an integrated
view about failure, the Handbook will be an essential reading for students in sociology, social theory, anthropology, international relations and development research, organization theory, public policy, management studies, queer theory, disability studies, sports, and performance research.
Türkiye’de son yıllarda çok daha fazla görülmeye başlanan yangın,
deprem, sel gibi çevresel krizlere ek olarak global çapta yaşanan göç,
salgın ve ekonomik kriz benzeri tehditler artarak devam etmektedir.
Tüm bu artan tehditler kriz yönetiminin ve öngörülebilirliğinin ne kadar
hayati bir olgu olduğunu göstermektedir. Kriz yönetimi geleceğe yönelik
olası problemlerin ve tehlike unsurlarının tespit edilmeye çalışılarak yeni
değerlendirmelerin yapılması gereken, bir krizle yüz yüze kalındığında
atılması gereken adımların hızlı, etkili ve koordineli bir şekilde yapıldığı,
olası neden ve değişkenlere uygun tepkiler geliştirildiği, halkla ilişkilerin
sağlıklı bir şekilde yapıldığı, doğru iletişimin sağlandığı ve bu süreç içerisinde yeni değerlendirmelerin yapıldığı bir süreç şeklinde gerçekleşmelidir.
In recent years, natural disasters are recognized to be the cause of considerable human and socioeconomic losses, particularly in modern, infrastructure-dependent societies. For example, the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan have been one of the most devastating disasters of the past decades. Likewise, the Katrina hurricane was in the US east coast in 2005. On the other hand, climate change is considered a major issue nowadays and its consequences have been considered only recently in risk assessment. In this context, the concepts of “resilience of urban areas” and “resilient community”, have gathered the attention of researchers. On top of that, more recently, antifragile design came as an evolution of design for resilience (intended as the capacity to recover), or for structural robustness (a main dimension of resilience, intended as the ability of a structure to withstand events without being damaged to an extent disproportionate to the original cause). This study focuses on a modern approach in disaster resilience – including issues for the risk assessment in antifragile design – providing insight and a framework on important modelling aspects, in particular:
(i)
System representation, including hazard modelling and the time horizon of events;
(ii)
Decision representation (with specific reference to political decisions);
(iii)
Data collection, necessary for data-driven modelling.
The intention is to provide an umbrella framework and set of advises of correct practice that can help policy advisors and experts design for resilience in urban areas.KeywordsResilience-based designSystem qualityPolitical decisionsStructural robustnessHazard representation
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