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Do More Police Lead to More Crime Deterrence?
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Does increasing police strength deter more crime? Some studies have found apparent negative effects of police manpower levels on crime rates, and the most common explanation of such findings is that greater police strength increases perceptions of arrest risk, thus reducing crime via general deterrence mechanisms. The authors directly tested this hypothesis by estimating the association between survey respondents' perceptions of arrest risk and the level of police strength prevailing in the counties where they live. No relationship between the number of police officers per capita and perceptions of the risk of arrest was found, suggesting that increases in police manpower will not increase general deterrent effects and decreases will not reduce these effects. The authors also considered the possibility that police manpower levels influence the number of criminals incarcerated, and thus affect crime rates via the incapacitative effects of incarceration, but concluded that such an effect is unlikely. These findings point to a need to reconsider previous interpretations of findings as supportive of a deterrent effect of increased police manpower on crime rates.
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... Im Allgemeinen scheinen die Bürger über die Gerichtspraxis in ihrer Gegend nur schlecht informiert zu sein (Apel 2013). Empirischen Untersuchungen zufolge stellen die tatsächliche und die perzipierte Kriminalstrafenpraxis allenfalls lose korrelierte Größen dar (Kleck et al. 2005;Kleck & Barnes 2014;Lochner 2007). Eine US-amerikanische Mehrebenenanalyse konnte speziell für die Sanktionierungsgeschwindigkeit zeigen, dass die Bewohner von Gerichtsbezirken, in denen rascher gestraft wird, ungefähr dieselbe Straftempowahrnehmung haben wie Bewohner von Gebieten, in denen langsamer gestraft wird (Kleck et al. 2005). ...
Zusammenfassung
Die Zeitspanne zwischen der Ausführung einer rechtswidrigen Handlung und ihrer Bestrafung markiert ein in der empirischen Abschreckungsforschung stark vernachlässigtes Thema. Während die Konsequenzen der Strafwahrscheinlichkeit und Strafhärte vielfach untersucht wurden, gibt es zur generalpräventiven Bedeutsamkeit der Strafschnelligkeit kaum Befunde. Die vorliegende Arbeit will diesem Ungleichgewicht entgegentreten. Dazu werden im Anschluss an eine Sichtung des einschlägigen Forschungsstands die Ergebnisse einer Szenariostudie zur Vandalismusdelinquenz junger Menschen vorgestellt. Die Resultate lassen keine signifikanten Effekte der Sanktionierungsgeschwindigkeit erkennen. In dem Bereich, in dem das Kriminaljustizsystem eine Verfahrensbeschleunigung leisten kann, scheint eine raschere gerichtliche Bestrafung keine generalpräventiven Erfolge zu bringen.
... A growing body of the literature identifies situations where a correlation between objective risks and perception of those risks would be expected but, when analyzed, there is none. For example, prior work failed to find a substantive relationship between objective measures of arrest risk and individuals' perceptions of those risks (Kleck & Barnes, 2014;Kleck et al., 2005). Other studies reported statistically significant but substantively small associations between objective punishment risks and children's perception of those risks in American schools (Apel et al., 2009;Nixon & Barnes, 2019). ...
Perceptions of crime detection risk (e.g., risk of arrest) play an integral role in the criminal decision-making process. Yet, the sources of variation in those perceptions are not well understood. Do individuals respond to changes in legal policy or is perception of detection risk shaped like other perceptions—by experience, heuristics, and with biases? We applied a developmental perspective to study self-reported perception of detection risk. We test four hypotheses against data from the Dunedin Longitudinal Study (analytic sample of N = 985 New Zealanders), a study that spans 20 years of development (Ages 18–38, years 1990–2011). We reach four conclusions: (1) people form their perception of detection risk early in the life course; (2) perception of detection risk may be general rather than unique to each crime type; (3) population-level perceptions are stable between adolescence and adulthood; but (4) people update their perceptions when their life circumstances change. The importance of these findings for future theoretical and policy work is considered.
... However, there has also been no convergence in the results. While studies by Levitt (1997), Araujo Jr. (2001), Fajnzylber, Lederman, andLoayza (2002), Evans and Owens (2007), Apel (2013) and Nagin (2013a) concluded that greater police force negatively affects the criminality, those by Kleck et al., (2005), Lochner (2007) and Kleck and Barnes (2014) found no evidence for the police-crime effect. In addition, Santos (2009) exposes that the indicators used in Brazil to measure the deterrent effects on crime are not, so far, ideal. ...
Theoretical literature indicates that public security spending matters to deter criminal behavior. Nevertheless, most empirical studies aiming to quantify the influence of public security spending on crime have largely been unable to establish a statistically significant relationship between these variables. In response to this, we introduced a novel proxy that measures the rationing of public security expenditures in each region. When testing it for crimes of homicide, robbery, and theft of vehicles through the GMM-SYS estimator, we found statistical evidence that its occurrence influences criminal behavior. We believe its inception contributes valuable evidence to the economic literature, shedding light on the debate surrounding the allocative efficiency of security spending resources.
... Moreover, the independent variables we use come from ACS data, which are 5-year estimates produced from a weighted and rolling sample, which can make it difficult to detect trends. Nevertheless, reported crimes are widely used in the literature to study crime, and ACS estimates are widely used in similar studies (Golash-Boza & Oh, 2021;Hipp et al., 2019;Kleck & Barnes, 2014;Wenger, 2023). ...
We examine the relationship between economic participation rates and rates of assaults, vandalisms, and drug offenses in neighborhoods in Forsyth County, N.C. We use a unique dataset containing assault, vandalism, and drug offense rates at the neighborhood level from 2013 to 2020. We estimate a two-way fixed effects spatial Durbin regression model relating crime rates to economic participation rates for the three types of crime. The results show that neighborhoods, proxied with census tracts, with higher economic participation rates among its residents have significantly lower crime rates. The relationship exists even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. Workforce programs that recruit individuals from neighborhoods with low economic participation rates may have the additional benefit of reducing crime.
... However, interviews with poachers in Chitwan suggested the general deterrence effect is overestimated (Paudel et al., 2018). Evidence is mixed that increasing police officer numbers cause crime to decline (Bradford, 2011), while increased officer numbers do not always increase perceptions of risk of arrest among offenders (Kleck and Barnes, 2014), or presence of armed guards deter rhino poachers in South Africa (Barichievy et al., 2017). ...
Tigers are a conservation-reliant species, as multiple populations face the risk of local extinction due to poaching arising from the continued demand for their body parts. Preventing tiger poaching poses a challenge for the rangers responsible for their protection, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the protected areas are typically large, mountainous tropical forests guarded by small teams of rangers. Improving counter-wildlife crime tactics is hindered without robust evaluations, and inefficient approaches are perpetuated. We evaluate an eight-year project aiming to recover a tiger population in Peninsular Malaysia. Three distinct poaching problems by Vietnamese, Thai and Cambodian groups, differing by organisation, target species and tactics, were prioritised, and ranger counter-poaching tactics were tailored to reduce these. Applying a framework developed to evaluate crime prevention known by the acronym EMMIE, here we: (1) examine evidence our intervention was Effective in reducing the poaching threat; (2) resolve the Mechanisms by which our intervention caused a reduction in harm from poaching and how intervention effectiveness is Moderated by the three poaching types; (3) define the elements necessary for Implementation and the Economic costs involved. We found poaching incursion frequency fell 40% from baseline years to treatment years across all poaching types while poaching incursion depth declined, with disrupted incursions on average, 2.6 km (Thai) and 9.1 km (Cambodian) closer to the forest edge. However, wire snares increased from baseline to treatment years as Vietnamese poachers increased the number of snares per incursion eightfold. No poaching incursions were observed during the Covid-19 pandemic. Tiger density remained below recovery potential (0.48/100km 2 in 2014 to 0.53/ Frontiers in Conservation Science
... Analyzing data from 1991 to 2000, McCarty and colleagues (2009) found that "increases in police strength during the 1990s [had] little to do with changes in all measures of the crime rate". A comprehensive 2014 study found that police workforce levels did not affect deterrence (Kleck & Barnes, 2010). That policing and prison expansion did little to reduce crime should not be surprising. ...
... At the same time, previous studies show an association between an increase in arrests and an increase in the perception of the probability of arrest (Paternoster andPiquero 1995, Piquero andPogarsky 2002;Pogarsky and Piquero 2003;Carmichael and Piquero 2006). Obviously, all studies on the effect of changes in public policy assume that potential offenders are aware of such changes (Nagin 1998;Apel 2013;Kleck and Barnes 2014), which the allocation (or reallocation) of police stations/modules greatly facilitates. However, there is less consensus regarding the factors that determine criminal activity, an adequate crime model, or the form of deployment of police resources and development of specific public policies on the matter Stern 1973, 2014;Avio and Clark 1978;Benson and Rasmussen 1991;Benson et al. 1992;Becsi 1999;Weisburd and Eck 2004;Police Foundation 2011). ...
Premises security is essential for organizations to function efficiently and effectively. The sanctity of space and its associated perimeter not only signals a boundary for outsiders but also serves as a second home for organizational members. These members cannot meet organizational requirements if they are constantly on guard, protecting themselves and the organization’s property. However, the gradual encroachment of industrial space by squatters, while reflecting uneven economic development, presents significant security challenges, as some inhabitants of informal settlements find pilfering and other petty crimes financially rewarding. The dominant security strategy typically involves armed guards, whose presence may act as a deterrent. However, the death of an intruder or trespasser due to a guard using his firearm has far-reaching implications due to prevailing legal doctrines and stakeholder dynamics. In India, the legal system treats death as a serious matter, out of proportion to the crime of theft, and the socio-political environment echoes this perspective. Such deaths often lead to collective protests from citizens, often in the form of a dharna or a gherao, which not only disrupts the firm’s operations but also poses a challenge to legal and administrative authorities and management. Dispersing the dharna and preventing it from escalating into a violent mob typically requires the management to negotiate compensation with the aggrieved family, alongside a commitment to legal authorities to impose strict restrictions on the use of firearms. The erosion of deterrence following such negotiations renders security guards ineffective. Their response to trespassing and pilfering is reduced to physical confrontation, attempting to evict individuals, which places guards at risk when faced with armed intruders. Our case study illustrates how an organization restored deterrence, and thus the sanctity of its perimeter, by incorporating attack dogs into its security strategy.
According to evidence from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), there have been significant falls in crime levels in England and Wales since the 1990s. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain these falls. However, there is scarce research on the role of the number of police officers in bringing about the crime drop in the UK. We fitted multilevel models to analyse the role of the number of police officers in the crime drop in England between 1991 and 2001 using a variety of data sources, including police recorded crime data, UK Census data, and police workforce data. We found that the role of police officer strength in the crime drop in England was limited to vehicle thefts, thefts from vehicle, and thefts from person. Given the relatively mixed picture, we recommend that police forces should focus on what newly recruited police officers do and where they are deployed, as opposed to becoming too focussed on the number of officers. More implications of the findings in relation to the recent Police Uplift Programme are discussed.
Deterrence is a term commonly used by criminal justice professionals to indicate that people have desisted from committing crime. Certain, swift, and severe punishment serves as a caution to would‐be offenders contemplating crime. Deterrence is often understood through a rational choice framework, which suggests that offenders weigh the advantages and disadvantages before deciding whether to commit a crime.
This study explores the relationship between media portrayal of crime and conditions in the political economy. Based on a content analysis of articles about crime appearing in Time magazine during the post-World War II period, it is argued that news about crime is ideological, that is, it gives an inadequate and distorted picture of the contradictory reality of crime in the context of the capitalist political economy in the United States.
Several recent studies report that punished individuals appear more likely to offend in the future and believe that the certainty of punishment is lower than do their less punished/unpunished counterparts. This article investigates two competing explanations for the latter finding. Under the selection account, punishment simply identifies the most committed offenders whose certainty estimates, even following punishment, remain lower than those of less committed offenders. The second account, resetting, invokes a judgment and decision-making bias known as the “gambler’s fallacy.” Under this explanation, punished offenders reset their sanction certainty estimate, apparently believing they would have to be exceedingly unlucky to be apprehended again. Herein, we report a preliminary empirical investigation of these explanations and address the challenge to contemporary deterrence theory posed by the “positive punishment effect.”
Research on the deterrent effects of punishment falls into two categories: macro-level studies of the impact of aggregate punishment levels on crime rates, and individual-level studies of the impact of perceived punishment levels on self-reported criminal behavior. For policy purposes, however, the missing link—ignored in previous research—is that between aggregate punishment levels and individual perceptions of punishment. This paper addresses whether higher actual punishment levels increase the perceived certainty, severity, or swiftness of punishment.Telephone interviews with 1,500 residents of fifty-four large urban counties were used to measure perceptions of punishment levels, which were then linked to actual punishment levels as measured in official statistics. Hierarchical linear model estimates of multivariate models generally found no detectable impact of actual punishment levels on perceptions of punishment. The findings raise serious questions about deterrence-based rationales for more punitive crime control policies.
This article develops Bittner's (1974) theory of the police by considering the effect of police encounters over time. It argues that the expectation that the police will intervene whenever called establishes the 'idea of police' in the public, and how this makes the idea of police a pre-eminent factor in the preservation of law and order in democratic societies. The 'idea of police' is then applied exploratorily to the results of the Kansas City and Newark Patrol Experiments and for the 'quasi-experimental' dynamics of Brazil's 1997 police strike, demonstrating its explanatory value. In conclusion, this article argues that the preservation of the idea of police is the paramount concern for police policy and management.
The 1990s represented a unique decade in which to analyze the determinants of police strength in the United States. This decade was a time in which crime initially increased, then substantially decreased. Furthermore, this decade also was characterized by increases in the minority population throughout large American cities. Finally, the 1990s were characterized by increasing police budgets. These realities have direct implications for the competing theories of police growth. This research examines the determinants of police strength in large U.S. cities from 1990 to 2000. A fixed-effects panel analysis was used to assess the number of sworn police officers per 100,000 population. The findings support the resource dependency and social conflict perspectives. Additionally, no support was found for the rational public choice perspective.
An analysis of the coverage by two St. Louis newspapers of local crime occurrences between 1969 and 1972 finds that (1) how much various types of crime increase or decrease from year to year is unrelated to how much more or less attention is given them by the press; and (2) the type of crime and its location within the city affect the amount of coverage it receives.
Prior studies demonstrating a relationship between racial context and levels of crime control have not explicitly examined the factors that may account for this relationship. The authors advance the literature by examining whether geographic differences in black economic and political threat explain the effects of % black and racial segregation on police size. They also examine the potential mediating roles of whites' fear of crime and antiblack prejudice. The results show that whites' fear and perceived economic threat account for more than one-third of the effect of % black on police size. They also find a significant positive effect of segregation on police size that is not accounted for by the intervening mechanisms considered. The findings are partially consistent with the minority threat perspective, but also suggest that it does not fully explain the link between racial context and crime control.
The amount of crime news in each of four Colorado newspapers varies independently of both the amount of crime in the state and the amount of crime news in the other newspapers. The data lend some support to the hypothesis that public opinion about crime trends reflects trends in the amount of crime news rather than in actual crime rates, but some of the evidence is inconclusive and some seems to contradict this hypothesis.