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The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change
... Periode ini secara teoritis diyakini sebagai jendela peluang emas untuk melesatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, memperkuat daya saing bangsa, dan mendorong transformasi sosial secara signifikan. Namun, sebagaimana ditegaskan dalam berbagai studi demografi dan pembangunan (Bloom et al., 2003;Mason, 2010;Wibowo, 2010), peluang tersebut bersifat temporal dan dapat berbalik menjadi bencana demografi apabila tidak dikelola dengan strategi yang tepat. Pertanyaannya sederhana: apakah kita akan membuka pintu itu dan melangkah maju, atau justru melewatkannya dan menyesal selamanya? ...
... Kita mulai bergerak sekarang, atau semuanya akan serba terlambat dan cita-cita Indonesia Emas 2045 bisa saja hanyalah sebuah mimpi.*** (Bloom et al., 2003;Bloom & Williamson, 1998). Mereka menjelaskan bagaimana struktur penduduk yang didominasi usia produktif dapat menjadi pemicu pertumbuhan ekonomi, selama didukung kebijakan yang tepat dan kondisi makroekonomi yang stabil. ...
... Konsep bonus demografi juga terkait erat dengan teori transisi demografi yang dikembangkan sebelumnya oleh Warren Thompson (Thompson, 1929) dan Frank Notestein (Notestein, 1945 Perubahan struktur populasi ini menciptakan peluang bagi negara untuk memanfaatkan demographic dividend. Namun, keberhasilan memanfaatkan bonus demografi sangat bergantung pada kemampuan negara untuk menyediakan pendidikan berkualitas, pekerjaan yang layak, serta akses ke layanan kesehatan yang mendukung pembangunan manusia secara menyeluruh (Bloom et al., 2003). ...
Buku ini hadir untuk mengedukasi seluruh komponen bangsa—pemerintah, akademisi, birokrasi, dan masyarakat luas—bahwa bonus demografi bukanlah akhir, melainkan awal dari tanggung jawab besar. Kami menawarkan sebuah pendekatan strategis: Eventonomic. Ini adalah kerangka kebijakan dalam menggerakkan ekonomi berbasis komunitas yang berfokus pada optimalisasi potensi usia produktif melalui aktivitas, hobi, dan keterampilan yang mendorong produktivitas dan konsumsi domestik. Contoh implementasinya mencakup pelatihan UMKM berbasis komunitas,
festival wirausaha lokal, dan program pemberdayaan pemuda melalui kegiatan kreatif.
... Population growth (PG) completes this triad of control variables by capturing important demographic dynamics. While rapid PG can strain environmental quality through increased demand for logistics services and associated emissions (Bloom et al. 2020;Nathaniel et al. 2021), it also presents opportunities for economic growth through expanded labor markets and consumer bases (Adeleye et al. 2022). In international trade, PG influences both supply and demand sides-larger populations may support export-oriented production but also require more imports to meet domestic needs (Hossain and Chen, 2019). ...
... However, PG positively impacts EG (coefficient = 0.423, p = 0.000) and INT (coefficient = 0.216, p = 0.000), indicating that population growth can drive economic activity and trade. These results are consistent with studies by Bloom et al. (2020), who found that population growth can stimulate economic development but may also strain environmental resources. Human capital (HC) has a positive long-run impact on EQ (coefficient = 0.634, p = 0.046) and EG (coefficient = 0.224, p = Apergis and Payne (2022), who found that renewable energy consumption enhances environmental quality and economic growth but may not directly contribute to trade competitiveness. ...
... However, PG positively impacts EG (coefficient = 0.437, p = 0.000) and INT (coefficient = 0.169, p = 0.000), indicating that population growth can drive economic activity and trade. These results are consistent with studies by Bloom et al. (2020), who found that population growth can stimulate economic development but may also strain environmental resources. Human capital (HC) has a positive long-run impact on EQ (coefficient = 0.515, p = 0.000) and EG (coefficient = 0.399, p = 0.000), highlighting the importance of skilled labor in promoting sustainable development. ...
This study investigates the impact of green logistics performance (GLP) on sustainability indicators—environmental quality (EQ), economic growth (EG), and international trade (INT) in African countries. Using a Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributive Lags (CS-ARDL) approach, the research analyzes panel data from 2007 to 2023, incorporating control variables such as human capital, population growth, and renewable energy consumption. The findings reveal a positive long-run impact of GLP on EQ, EG, and INT, indicating that green logistics practices can enhance environmental quality, drive economic growth, and improve trade competitiveness. In the short run, GLP positively influences INT, suggesting immediate trade benefits. The causality test results show bidirectional relationships between GLP and EQ, as well as between logistics performance (LP) and EQ, EG, and INT. Unidirectional causality is observed from EG and INT to GLP. The study underscores the importance of investing in green logistics infrastructure and adopting eco-friendly supply chain practices to achieve sustainable development. By focusing on the African context, the research addresses a significant gap in the literature and provides tailored recommendations for policymakers and business leaders to prioritize green logistics initiatives, fostering both economic and environmental sustainability. The findings contribute to the Triple Bottom Line (TBL) framework by empirically validating the dynamic relationships between GLP and key sustainability indicators.
... Economic theories also offer insights, suggesting that lower fertility rates may lead to greater investment in human capital (the "quantity-quality tradeoff" described by Becker and Lewis, 1973), potentially reducing socioeconomic inequality and associated violence. Additionally, the "demographic dividend" that occurs when fertility rates decline can create economic opportunities that may reduce incentives for criminal behavior (Bloom et al., 2003). 4 ...
... Additionally, the "demographic dividend" that occurs when fertility rates decline can create economic opportunities that may reduce incentives for criminal behavior (Bloom et al., 2003). 4 ...
... However, this demographic transition also creates opportunities. The period of favorable age structure-with a large working-age population and declining youth dependency-provides a potential "demographic dividend" that could boost economic growth if accompanied by appropriate investments in human capital and productive employment (Bloom et al., 2003). Our analysis suggests that Brazil is currently in this favorable demographic window, which will gradually close over the next two decades, if we accept the old and unlikely ceteris paribus assumption economist are used to assume in projections. ...
This study examines the parallel demographic transitions occurring in Brazil: the dramatic decline in fertility rates and the significant reduction in homicide rates. Using comprehensive data from 1950-2025 for fertility and 2007-2024 for homicides, we analyze the trajectories, regional variations, and potential interconnections between these demographic phenomena. Mathematical modeling techniques are employed to quantify these trends and project future scenarios. Our findings reveal that Brazil's fertility rate has declined from 6.12 children per woman in 1950 to 1.57 in 2023, with projections indicating a further decrease to 1.44 by 2040 before a slight recovery to 1.50 by 2070. Concurrently, homicide rates have fallen from 26.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2018 to 17.9 in 2024, representing a 33% reduction. However, significant regional disparities persist in both indicators, with fertility rates ranging from 1.39 to 2.26 across states and homicide rates varying from 6.8 to 31.2 per 100,000. Through statistical analysis and demographic modeling, we establish correlations between these transitions and socioeconomic factors. The study contributes to understanding how demographic shifts influence public safety outcomes and provides a methodological framework for projecting these trends. Our findings have important implications for policy development in population management, public security, and social welfare in Brazil and similar developing nations experiencing demographic transitions.
... Increasingly, GIS-based research has been employed to visualize and analyse these 1 intricate spatial relationships (Vespa et al., n.d.). Our research expands on this established body of knowledge by combining multiple elements of population and land area analysis, thus offering a thorough perspective on how demographic shifts interact with spatial characteristics throughout the United States (Bloom et al., 2003a). ...
... This trend aligns with the demographic shift toward the Sun Belt, driven by factors such as job availability, lower living costs, and a milder climate. In contrast, the Northeast shows growth but at the slowest pace, possibly due to high living costs and the waning of industrial sectors in some areas (Bloom et al., 2003a). ...
... For example, states with bigger land masses do not necessarily have higher numbers of residents or greater density. This indicates that factors like economic opportunities and historical settlement patterns significantly influence how populations are distributed (Bloom et al., 2003a). ...
This research utilizes Geographic Information Systems (GIS) methodologies to perform a thorough examination of population dynamics and land allocation throughout the United States. The investigation concentrates on four principal dimensions: temporal population alterations, population density, population distribution, and the distribution of land area by state. Through the analysis of these elements, the research elucidates notable regional disparities in population growth, with the Southern and Western regions witnessing the most substantial increases. The inequalities in population density are underscored, revealing striking contrasts between metropolitan areas and vast states. The examination further uncovers intricate associations between land area and population distribution, illustrating that larger states do not inherently possess higher populations or densities. This inquiry offers significant insights for urban development, resource distribution, and policy formulation, underscoring the necessity for customized strategies for regional advancement, predicated on distinct demographic, and geographical attributes.
... Se entendía como una época de ahorro estatal, pues se necesitaban menores gastos en educación para los niños y en cuidados de salud o pensiones para los ancianos, y había una población importante en edad de trabajar y producir que podía dinamizar la economía. Bloom, Canning y Sevilla (2003) sostenían que unas tasas de fecundidad decrecientes y una población joven y trabajadora numerosa son benéficas para el crecimiento económico. Por su parte, la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) aseguraba que el bono demográfico permite aumentar la inversión social en busca del mejoramiento de la educación y de la salud, así como en la lucha contra la pobreza (CEPAL, 2008, citado por el Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social (MSPS), 2013, p. 13). ...
... El beneficio no es automático y para poder aprovecharlo debe implementar ciertas políticas sociales. Es esencial hacer inversiones importantes en educación que amplíen el acceso para los jóvenes (Bloom, Canning y Sevilla, 2003). Esto debe ir acompañado de reformas en el campo del empleo: las condiciones del mercado laboral y del entorno de negocios deben ser óptimas para evitar la frustración de jóvenes altamente educados que podrían no tener oportunidades laborales (Østby y Urdal, 2014). ...
... Se debe evitar un desfase entre las expectativas que tienen esas poblaciones y una realidad de falta de oportunidades de empleo (Thayer, 2009). Para eso, el rol del Estado es clave: debe intervenir y desarrollar algunas inversiones claves en salud e implementar políticas de población que mejoren las condiciones de las personas en edad de trabajar (Bloom, Canning y Sevilla, 2003). Son entonces tres las esferas claves del contexto socioeconómico para aprovechar el bono demográfico: la educación, el empleo y la salud. ...
En la teoría demográfica del conflicto, la composición de una población puede ser causa de violencia. En Colombia, este enfoque ha sido poco abordado, a pesar de que el conflicto se intensificó en los años noventa y, paralelamente, el país entró en un período de bono demográfico (poblaciones jóvenes y en edad de trabajar muy numerosas). Para determinar si esa particular estructura poblacional influyó en la evolución del conflicto, se escogieron municipios de cuatro regiones diferentes y se analizaron algunas variables de población, conflicto y condiciones socioeconómicas entre 1973 y 2005. No se encontró una relación automática población joven numerosa = conflicto, pero todos los municipios más violentos tenían poblaciones jóvenes y en edad de trabajar importantes y condiciones de vida deficientes, lo que invita a continuar investigando la relación entre bono demográfico y conflicto.
... Dicha dimensión representa una faceta crítica de la dinámica poblacional que tiende a ser pasada por alto. En este sentido, la estructura por edad de las poblaciones adquiere una importancia insoslayable, ya que brinda una perspectiva clave para aprehender los efectos sociales que podrían surgir debido a la variabilidad en la composición demográfica, diferenciando, por ejemplo, poblaciones predominantemente jóvenes de aquellas de índole más madura (Bloom et al., 2002). ...
... Se testifica que los resultados positivos del acervo demográfico y su materialización en bono demográfico no son automáticos, sino que se necesita de la implementación de políticas públicas adecuadas para la correcta activación de estos mecanismos transitorios y del aprovechamiento de las estructuras poblacionales. Bajo el entendido de que cada grupo etario se comporta de manera disímil, con diferentes consecuencias socioeconómicas (por ejemplo: los jóvenes necesitan inversión en educación y salud, los adultos en edad productiva brindan mano de obra y ahorros y, los adultos mayores requieren atención médica e ingresos para la jubilación), es importante el estímulo público-económico-sociocultural, ya que si estos no están presentes puede exhibir desempleo e inestabilidad y, los sistemas de salud, educación y bienestar estarían expuestos a tensiones (Bloom et al., 2002;Lee & Mason, 2003). ...
Esta tesis investiga las raíces demográficas y la persistencia de la discriminación, violencia, exclusión, disciplinamiento y estigma hacia los jóvenes en las redes sociales digitales, especialmente en Twitter, a través de las categorías 'feminazi', 'ninis' y 'generación de cristal'. Utilizando la Demografía Digital como marco metodológico, el estudio aborda datos no tradicionales para analizar el comportamiento social en Twitter. Mediante un enfoque teórico-metodológico mixto que combina análisis de redes complejas y semánticas, procesamiento del lenguaje natural y correlación de palabras, se cuantifican elementos léxicos relacionados con estos conceptos. La observación cualitativa permite identificar grupos poblacionales a partir de elementos expulsores. El análisis revela una tendencia negativa en las narrativas estigmatizantes. Los resultados indican que en el caso de 'feminazi', hombres adultos conservadores y mujeres religiosas expresan estigma, discriminación y violencia. Para 'ninis', adultos con inclinaciones políticas de la nueva derecha mexicana reproducen discursos de violencia, exclusión y estigma. En 'generación de cristal', hombres conservadores adultos con profesiones generan estigma, discriminación y exclusión. Los discriminadores son principalmente hombres conservadores, mientras que los jóvenes discriminados se identifican como progresistas. Los hallazgos expresan las dimensiones de exclusión y acumulación de desventajas que enfrentan los jóvenes en México, aportando conocimiento a los estudios poblacionales y de desarrollo sobre juventudes y exclusión, al mismo tiempo que contribuye al vacío en la literatura sobre discriminación y juventudes en redes sociales digitales.
... Additionally, the "demographic dividend" that occurs when fertility rates decline can create economic opportunities that may reduce incentives for criminal behavior (Bloom et al., 2003). ...
... However, this demographic transition also creates opportunities. The period of favorable age structure-with a large working-age population and declining youth dependency-provides a potential "demographic dividend" that could boost economic growth if accompanied by appropriate investments in human capital and productive employment (Bloom et al., 2003). Our analysis suggests that Brazil is currently in this favorable demographic window, which will gradually close over the next two decades, if we accept the old and unlikely ceteris paribus assumption economist are used to assume in projections. ...
This study examines the parallel demographic transitions occurring in Brazil: the dramatic decline in fertility rates and the significant reduction in homicide rates. Using comprehensive data from 1950-2025 for fertility and 2007-2024 for homicides, we analyze the trajectories, regional variations, and potential interconnections between these demographic phenomena. Mathematical modeling techniques are employed to quantify these trends and project future scenarios. Our findings reveal that Brazil's fertility rate has declined from 6.12 children per woman in 1950 to 1.57 in 2023, with projections indicating a further decrease to 1.44 by 2040 before a slight recovery to 1.50 by 2070. Concurrently, homicide rates have fallen from 26.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2018 to 17.9 in 2024, representing a 33% reduction. However, significant regional disparities persist in both indicators, with fertility rates ranging from 1.39 to 2.26 across states and homicide rates varying from 6.8 to 31.2 per 100,000. Through statistical analysis and demographic modeling, we establish correlations between these transitions and socioeconomic factors. The study contributes to understanding how demographic shifts influence public safety outcomes and provides a methodological framework for projecting these trends. Our findings have important implications for policy development in population management, public security, and social welfare in Brazil and similar developing nations experiencing demographic transitions.
... Hasil penelitian ini tidak sejalan dengan pendapat oleh (Bloom et al., 2003) bahwa terdapat pengaruh serta korelasi arah negatif antara produktivitas dengan rasio ketergantungan. Bloom (2003) menjelaskan bahwa ketika jumlah penduduk usia kerja dalam populasi lebih besar daripada jumlah penduduk tua dan muda, maka akan ada jendela peluang di mana produktivitas penduduk usia kerja dan tingkat konsumsi dapat meningkat dan perekonomian bisa mendapat keuntungan. ...
... Hasil penelitian ini tidak sejalan dengan pendapat oleh (Bloom et al., 2003) bahwa terdapat pengaruh serta korelasi arah negatif antara produktivitas dengan rasio ketergantungan. Bloom (2003) menjelaskan bahwa ketika jumlah penduduk usia kerja dalam populasi lebih besar daripada jumlah penduduk tua dan muda, maka akan ada jendela peluang di mana produktivitas penduduk usia kerja dan tingkat konsumsi dapat meningkat dan perekonomian bisa mendapat keuntungan. ...
Labor productivity describes the total output produced by labor in a certain period of time. Based on the measurement of the level of labor productivity in regencies/cities in East Java, it is known that there are inequalities between regions. In addition, the provincial productivity level fluctuated during 2017-2021. This study aims to determine the factors that affect labor productivity with the variables studied are Dependency Ratio, Education, and Minimum Wage in 38 districts / cities in East Java Province in the period of 2017 - 2021. This study used panel data analysis which is fixed effect model is the best model. The results show that the dependency ratio variable has no effect on labour productivity. The education variable has a significant negative effect on labour productivity while the district/city minimum wage variable has a significant positive effect on labour productivity in 38 districts/cities in East Java.
... Population growth is another factor that significantly affects GDP growth, though its impact can be both positive and negative. Some scholars [25,26] argued that population growth fuels GDP by expanding the labor force and increasing consumer demand. However, rapid population growth can also present challenges, particularly if it surpasses job creation and strains existing resources. ...
... Our results suggest that population growth does seem to have a very large negative impact on economic growth. Our findings are consistent with various studies [15,27], but results contrary to ours were found in others' research [25,26]. In fact, rapid population growth may adversely affect the GDP level of GCC countries as it exerts a heavy burden on infrastructure and public services. ...
This study investigates the impact of energy intensity and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, aiming to understand the interplay between energy consumption, environmental sustainability, and economic performance. We analyze data from 1990 to 2023 across six GCC countries. The study employs the fixed effects model, random effects model, and pooled regression model to examine the relationships between energy intensity, CO2 emissions, and GDP growth, controlling for factors such as foreign direct investment, trade openness, population, unemployment, and urbanization. Our findings reveal a significant negative impact of energy intensity on economic growth, and an increase in energy intensity is associated with a decrease of approximately 0.2969 units in GDP, indicating that higher energy consumption per unit of output hinders economic performance. While CO2 emissions positively affect growth in GCC countries, a one-unit increase in CO2 emissions is associated with an increase of approximately 0.3961 units in GDP. The study emphasizes the necessity for GCC countries to adopt sustainable energy practices to reduce energy intensity and boost economic growth. By aligning economic strategies with environmental sustainability goals, these nations can achieve long-term growth while effectively addressing the challenges of climate change. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on sustainable development in the region and underscores the importance of harmonizing economic growth strategies with environmental objectives.
... Outdated workforces lead to diminished capacities for economic growth in developed nations such as Japan and Germany, primarily due to ageing populations. Bloom, Canning and Sevilla (2003) review the demographic dividend, noting that a rapid increase in the eligible working age can enhance economic productivity, provided that employment opportunities are accessible. Conversely, in developing countries, especially those with significant youth populations, effective policies are essential to enhance education and training for labour force entrants and ensure their productivity. ...
... A primary index of economic development is the labor force participation especially of the youths in a population. Several research studies show that high employment improves the growth of a country's economy as it increases the productivity of a country's human capital (Bloom, Canning, & Sevilla, 2003). Thus, Becker (1964) placed more importance on the human capital for developing nations through education and training centers on the factors that could enhance labor productivity. ...
This paper aims to investigate the role of fiscal policy and some fundamental macroeconomic factors on the economy's growth in Pakistan from 1976 to 2023 by using the ARDL model to analyze both the short and long-term relationship. The study establishes employment and capital accumulation as pivotal growth enablers, inviting more investment in human capital and infrastructure. On the other hand, government expenditure and trade openness have ambiguous results, which once again cement the need for context-specific fiscal and trade strategies. The analysis also highlights Inflation as another challenge and calls for strong measures to enhance price stability. Although foreign direct investment has not brought in a strong positive image for the destination country, the overall stability in the model reinforces the reliability of these understandings. The last section of the study presents policy implications that should be helpful for policymakers seeking to promote sustained economic growth and add substantively to the emerging literature about mechanisms of economic development in emerging economies.
... Efforts should be geared towards promoting demographic transition by speeding up fertility decline through helping women to achieve desire family sizes. Though, the impact of family planning programs has been very significant in this direction (Bloom, Canning & Sevilla 2003), we should be careful in using it as it can spark up various controversies because of cultural and religious beliefs. Instead, we should encourage higher education level for parents as it raises the opportunity costs of having children which in turn reduces fertility (Bloom, Canning & Sevilla 2003). ...
... Though, the impact of family planning programs has been very significant in this direction (Bloom, Canning & Sevilla 2003), we should be careful in using it as it can spark up various controversies because of cultural and religious beliefs. Instead, we should encourage higher education level for parents as it raises the opportunity costs of having children which in turn reduces fertility (Bloom, Canning & Sevilla 2003). ...
The paper examines the empirical relationship between demographic changes and economic growth in the context of Nigerian economy for the period between 1970 and 2007. The results following the neo-classical growth model in the paper indicated that life expectancy and population density are statistically significant in the model. But the latter is however negatively related to growth contrary to the expectations of the model. The paper then recommends execution of a comprehensive health policy with increased public health expenditure in Nigeria. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………
... In terms of education and SDG 4 the aspirational last sentence of Paragraph 25 highlighted the concept of the demographic dividend, a term that Bloom et al. (2003) coined to focus attention on the distribution of a population across the age range rather than population growth per se as a salient explanatory factor related to economic development. Population distribution, they argued, is salient because children and youth require expensive education, aged people require retirement income, and both require greater health care than prime-age adults, so that a lopsided distribution of the population in the high-cost age-range bands impacts the economy. ...
International comparisons play an increasingly decisive role in contemporary education policy evaluation, reform, and governance at the global, national, regional, and local scales. Central to this multiscalar research and policy agenda are international organisations (IOs) such as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. In this chapter, we employ Jessop's (2015) strategic-relational approach (SRA) to state theory to explore the reciprocity of influence between international comparisons, IOs, and the wider education policy field and offer new empirical and theoretical perspectives on their spatiotemporal linkages, legacies, and horizons of action. Drawing on historical publications, and theories of comparative education and governance, we explore the politics and polities involved in the complex history of comparative education. In connecting the dots in new ways, we offer insights into the role and development of the field of comparative education within a much wider politicoeconomic context, thereby extending our understanding of why and how comparative education emerged in the way it did and with what implications for global, national and local education policy. In this sense, the chapter contributes to the meaning of the establishment of "comparability" in education and the lessons learned from the tumultuous history of comparative education.
... Malthusian theory suggests that rapid population growth can outstrip economic growth, leading to higher unemployment (Malthus, 1798). However, empirical studies indicate that population growth can have varied effects on unemployment, depending on the structure of the economy and the rate of economic expansion (Bloom, Canning, and Sevilla, 2003). ...
This study examines the impact of venture capital (VC) investments in artificial intelligence (AI) on unemployment rates across 27 EU member states, distinguishing between old and new EU countries. Utilizing annual data from 2012 to 2023, we explore whether AI investments significantly influence unemployment and how these effects vary between advanced economies and those still developing their digital infrastructure. Employing the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), we effectively address endogeneity and the dynamic nature of unemployment, making this method well-suited for our panel dataset covering 27 countries over 12 years. Our findings reveal that AI investments correlate with higher unemployment in old EU countries while positively impacting job creation in new EU member states. Based on these results, we recommend targeted policies to enhance AI adoption, improve digital infrastructure, and promote workforce training, particularly in new member states, to optimize the benefits of AI investments and mitigate potential job displacement. JEL Codes: O1, O3
... The expansion of formal education in the low-income and middle-income countries leads to a significant decrease in the birth rate (see, e.g., Zinkina and Korotayev 2017;Kebede et al. 2019). In turn, fertility decline leads to an increase in the share of the working-age groups in the total population, creating the effect of the so-called 'demographic bonus' (see, e.g., Bloom et al. 2003;Bloom and Williamson 1998;Bloom et al. 2000;Omoruyi 2021;Korotayev, Shulgin et al. 2022). Fertility decrease brings down the youth bulges and leads to population aging (an increase in the median age), which, in turn, leads to a decrease in the risks of armed socio-political destabilization. 1 The spread of education reduces risks of armed socio-political destabilization 2 and directly and positively affects economic growth (see, e.g., Mankiw et al. 1992;Lucas 2002;Bonnal and Yaya 2015;Mamoon and Murshed 2009). ...
The present Yearbook, subtitled Political, Demographic, and Environmental Dimensions, is the eleventh in the series. It consists of four sections: (I) Social-Political and Civilizational Aspects; (II) Demography; (III) Climate and Environment; (IV) Reviews. This issue consists largely of the revised chapters of a report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. This report is the result of more than ten years of work on modeling and forecasting world dynamics, and it reflects the views of Russian scientists on the future of global de-velopment. Its main goals are to do a preliminary work for the following tasks: (1) to give an analysis of changes through which the World System has come to its present state, based on an integrated approach (that incorporates the world-systems, historical and evolutionary approaches), on mathematical modeling, as well as on a systematic view of society, in which changes in one subsystem cause transformations in others; (2) to define the main vectors of transformations of the World System; (3) to make a detailed forecast of the development of all the main subsystems of society and the World System, while presenting three or four horizons of changes (from short-term to ultra-long-term up to a hundred years); (4) to present different development scenarios and make recommendations on how to switch to the most favorable development scenario. We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.
... Malthusian theory suggests that rapid population growth can outstrip economic growth, leading to higher unemployment (Malthus, 1798). However, empirical studies indicate that population growth can have varied effects on unemployment, depending on the structure of the economy and the rate of economic expansion (Bloom, Canning, and Sevilla, 2003). ...
This study examines the impact of venture capital (VC) investments in artificial intelligence (AI) on unemployment rates across 27 EU member states, distinguishing between old and new EU countries. Utilizing annual data from 2012 to 2023, we explore whether AI investments significantly influence unemployment and how these effects vary between advanced economies and those still developing their digital infrastructure. Employing the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), we effectively address endogeneity and the dynamic nature of unemployment, making this method well-suited for our panel dataset covering 27 countries over 12 years. Our findings reveal that AI investments correlate with higher unemployment in old EU countries while positively impacting job creation in new EU member states. Based on these results, we recommend targeted policies to enhance AI adoption, improve digital infrastructure, and promote workforce training, particularly in new member states, to optimize the benefits of AI investments and mitigate potential job displacement. JEL Codes: O1, O3
... Demographic bonuses can be obtained through various mechanisms. Some of the most important are by increasing the labor supply or the number of productive age labor force (15-64 years), community savings and human resources or human capital (Bloom, et al., 2012). The demographic bonus ...
This study aims to elaborate the human development strategy towards the peak of demographic bonuses in Indonesia. The specific objectives of this study were to analyze (1) the number and population growth in Denpasar City, Bali Province; and (2) employment opportunities and challenges in Denpasar City, Bali Province.This study fully uses secondary data collected from various publications. The data analysis was descriptive where the relationships between variables are carried out with a descriptive approach. The study result indicates that bonus demographics will occur in the range of 2015-2025 inthe Denpasar City, because population growth continues to increase and the share of the productive age population is also more dominant than the non-productive population. However, the level of preparation in the labor sector has so far not been optimal. These conditions threaten Denpasar City can not reach the benefits of this window of opportunity.This is due to still unemployment in the Denpasar City.
... Daniel, Udousoro and Effiong (2024) noted that a country will achieve its balance when a lower mortality and fertility rate leads to an increase in the working age, reduces the level of dependency and increases a nation's socio-economic development. Bloom, Canning and Sevilla (2003) in a study of demographic dividend submitted that lower mortality and fertility levels reduce the dependency ratio of the total population and the outcome of such an effect will be a strong, positive effect on economic growth, and an accompanied appropriate socio-economic development. World Bank (2015), noted that though the potential of demographic dividend in a given country or state is attainable, its realization and the magnitude of such realizations are never automatic. ...
This study examined demographic dividends and socioeconomic developments in Nigeria. The study reveals the relationship between demographic dividends, human capital development, and the socioeconomic development of Nigeria. The study employs Thomas Malthus's theory of population growth. This study adopted the documentary/content method of data collection and content analysis in the discussion of findings. The essence of adopting this approach of data collection was to help us assess a set of documents for the creation of a larger narrative through the study of multiple documents that focused on the study of demographic dividends and socioeconomic developments in Nigeria to bring about sociological parlance. In the analysis, the study identifies social inequality as one of the pitfalls hindering the achievement of demographic dividends in Nigeria. The study also reveals ill health, poverty, illiteracy, and large family size as factors that influence the growth rate of demographic variables, and the achievement of socioeconomic development in the country. It is noted that family size or population structure correlates with the provisions of health care services, literacy rate, good governance and economic development, thus enhancing demographic dividends in Nigeria. It concludes that attending demographic dividend in a country is dependent on the population structure, and for it to be achieved, excessive population growth should be checked.
... A third perspective, held by revisionists or neutralists, presents a more moderate stance on the impact of population growth on economic development. Neutralists contend that there is little evidence linking demographic expansion to economic growth (Gallup et al., 1998;Bloom et al., 2003). However, recent empirical studies on the subject have largely supported the positions of pessimists or optimists, leaving the neutralist viewpoint mostly unsubstantiated (Hamza, 2015). ...
... This shows that population plays an important role in the labor market and is in line with labor market theory which states that population affects labor absorption. Research conducted by Bloom (1986); Bloom, et al., (2003); Ratnasari & Nugraha (2021); Cleland Labor market theory states that education level, population, and wages are the main factors that influence labor absorption. These three factors interact with each other to influence labor absorption, higher education, population (labor), and competitive wages play a key role in creating an efficient and productive labor market (Tiller et al., 2014). ...
Labor absorption is an important issue in the development of a region. Labor can be used as a benchmark for success in the development of a region. This study aims to analyze the effect of education level, population, and wages on labor absorption in the districts/cities of Bali Province using secondary data from 2017-2023. Data collection uses the observation method and is analyzed using panel data regression with the help ofsoftwareE-Views 12. The results of the study indicate that the level of education, population, and wages simultaneously have a significant effect on labor absorption. Partially, the level of education has a negative but not significant effect on labor absorption, the population has a significant positive effect on labor absorption, and wages have a significant negative effect on labor absorption. The district/city governments in Bali Province should pay more attention to the education sector, by increasing the quality of education through the development of infrastructure and supporting facilities, it is hoped that this will be able to increase labor absorption which will ultimately encourage economic development. In addition, the district/city governments of Bali Province must be more sensitive to the potential of their respective regions so that existing funds can be utilized properly to improve people's standard of living through income equality
... The augmented demographic transition theory, which explores the broader economic implications of demographic changes over time, is used as the framework for the empirical analysis in this study. The theory is based on theoretical and empirical outcomes developed in Williamson (2001) and Bloom et al (2003) where demographic dividend is considered as the economic growth potential that arises from shifts in a country's population structure which favours the working-age population relative to the dependent population. This model, however, demonstrates that such a shift in population's structure can lead to a period of accelerated economic growth, provided that the increased labour supply is effectively utilized. ...
The rise in the youth population growth in developing economies, as it relates to demographic dividend and economic growth, is a crucial discourse for researchers and policy makers. Presently, Nigeria is in the second stage of the demographic transition theory. Human capital development can fast track the attainment of demographic transition and subsequently demographic dividend. Right investment in human capital via education requires thorough understanding of the manpower need for a growing economy like Nigeria. This paper examined the unique correlation between human capital development and demographic dividend proxied by youth population growth in Nigeria. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) is employed for the analysis of this paper which spanned from 1981 to 2022. The findings suggest that human capital development is a major channel through which the demographic dividend is derived in the long run. It underscores the critical role of right investment in education and skills development for unlocking the productive potential of the youth in Nigeria. Equally crucial is the need to optimally utilize the human capital after developing them. The policy implication is that in order to achieve demographic dividend, Nigeria would require right investment in human capital which will consequently reduce fertility and mortality thereby, leading to a more sustainable youth population.
... The point is that the same demographic pattern that is perceived as a security threat in one context is an economic opportunity in another. This cannot be accommodated adequately by the threat-driven 88 Bloom et al. 2003. definition and interpretation of demographic security and is another proof that the concept has a number of weaknesses that limit its theoretical significance and practical relevance. ...
This article examines the analytical and policy significance of the concept of demographic security. It analyses how this concept aligns with the long-running debate on the population-security nexus and the growing anxieties about demographic change. Beyond its increasing use in academic discourse, several countries have integrated the concept into their population and other policies, often applying it to rationalize measures that may infringe upon human rights. We argue that the prevailing definitions and interpretations of demographic security constrain its theoretical and analytical significance and practical relevance. Specifically, the concept is often driven by tropes and ideology rather than facts and evidence; it securitizes population change by construing it as an existential threat; and is deterministic and reductionist as it overlooks the broader context (which affects whether population change is perceived as a threat or an opportunity) and the well-being of people. We explore how demographic security relates to concepts like human security and what insights could be gained, especially in recognizing that demographic change is driven by inherently private behaviors of autonomous agents with vested rights. We also reflect on what alternative concepts could better convey the importance of population dynamics for individual well-being, development, and political stability and security.
... On the other hand, social and economic development may increase incomes, augment markets, and change social norms, all of which in turn may alter the demand for contraception even when fertility preferences remain constant (Abiona 2017;McKelvey, Thomas, and Frankenberg 2012;Lovenheim and Mumford 2013;Dettling and Kearney 2014;Herbert 2015;Agha et al. 2021;Haider and Sharma 2013). Moreover, the relationship between contraception and development may be bi-directional, as has been highlighted by a large literature exploring the extent to which fertility change has contributed to economic development (Coale and Hoover 1958;Kelley and Schmidt 1995;Ashraf, Weil, and Wilde 2013;Karra, Canning, and Wilde 2017;Joshi and Schultz 2007;Bloom and Williamson 1998;Bloom, Canning, and Sevilla 2003;Lee and Mason 2011). ...
We review the foundations of the economic development–contraception nexus, focusing on the pathways through which economic factors drive contraceptive adoption and change. We investigate the channels through which the relationship between economic development and contraceptive dynamics is mediated. Using global data, we document the correlations between economic development and contraception transitions over time and across geographies. We briefly examine the evidence of the role of fertility, both desired and realized, as a central pathway through which the relationship has been historically theorized and empirically verified. We also discuss a range of mechanisms through which economic development drives contraceptive use independently from fertility decline. Finally, we assess the state and quality of evidence of these relationships and propose directions for future inquiry.
... Once a population inherits a sizeable number of youth, government measures are needed to actively support their access to SRHR services but also to create gainful employment and promote financial literacy and fiscal management to experience the first demographic dividend (Bloom et al., 2003). Economists have identified a second demographic dividend that can be realized with appropriate fiscal and social investments to enable wealth accumulation by the elderly as well as their old-age care lowering dependence on government support (Lee & Mason, 2011). ...
Since the 1950s, there has been unprecedented change in reproductive behavior around the world, in part due to expanded access to modern contraceptive methods. The widespread use of those methods by individuals to bear children at their desired timing and pace reflects the organized efforts of governments, non-profit, and commercial health providers to make contraception acceptable, available, accessible, high-quality, and affordable. The establishment and growth of family planning (FP) programs around the world, and particularly in low- and middle-income countries, have responded to the policies and population circumstances of different regions, countries, and communities over time. Identified as one of the ten great public health achievements of the 20th century, FP continues to face challenges in meeting the reproductive health needs and choices of early 21st-century and future generations of people living in areas with inadequate resources, political commitment, health systems, and social equalities. This review traces the establishment of organized FP programs, their underlying rationales, components and objectives, regional implementation, and future issues and challenges.
... • Potential for a demographic dividend: As fertility declines and the working-age population grows relative to dependents, Egypt has the potential to benefit from a demographic dividend. However, this can only be realized if there are adequate job opportunities and investment in human capital, particularly in education and health (Bloom et al., 2003). ...
In a nutshell • Egypt's labor force participation rates continue to decline, particularly among younger men and educated women. • Unemployment has decreased, but this is driven primarily by falling labor force participation rather than improved job prospects. • The "echo" generation of the youth bulge will enter the labor market within the next decade, creating new labor market pressures and challenges for policymakers. • Fertility rates have dropped substantially, from 3.5 births per woman in 2014 to 2.2 in 2023, reducing demographic pressures on the labor market in the long term. We acknowledge the financial support
... The level of the university participants defined the capabilities of a country to gain benefit from its human resources (Bloom et al., 2003). Indonesian universities need to build effective and efficient strategies in preparing their students to participate in developing Indonesia as it will gain its demographic dividend in around 2035-2040(BPS, 2011. ...
Predicting student performance in higher education is critical for
enhancing the academic outcomes of students. This study conducted on undergraduate students at STMIK Mikroskil and STIE Mikroskil in Medan, Indonesia, deals with a research gap by exploring factors beyond conventional metrics like cumulative grade point average (CGPA). The unique Indonesian
educational landscape introduces additional factors, including graduation time and lecturer competency. Acknowledging the importance of student behaviour and lecturer competency, the study employs an artificial neural network model to predict student performance. By considering variables such as entry pathway, attendance, grade point average (GPA), scholarship, and lecturer performance index, the model achieves high accuracy – 85.33% for CGPA and 77.43% for graduation time. This research contributes to adopting educational data mining, aligning with Indonesian education regulations and facilitating
early identification of at-risk students for targeted interventions.
... Demografisch dividend kan economische groei van landen stimuleren, mits aan bepaalde randvoorwaarden zoals goed bestuur en een stabiel financieel stelsel is voldaan. Bloom et al. 2003, Bloom et al. 2001 zoals India, de Filipijnen Indonesië en Latijns-Amerika. 234 Dat kan niet alleen een impuls geven aan de Europese economie maar ook aan de economieën van de betreffende landen, en daarmee bijdragen aan de doelstellingen van ontwikkelingshulp en internationaal beleid. ...
Europa vergrijst in hoog tempo. Dat is allereerst een groot succesverhaal: de levensverwachting stijgt, en mensen zijn langer gezond, actief en vitaal. Maar vergrijzing stelt Europese samenlevingen ook voor grote uitdagingen. Zo wordt het steeds kostbaarder om goede pensioenen te bieden. Een steeds kleiner aantal werkenden moet namelijk de pensioenuitkeringen van een groeiend aandeel ouderen opbrengen.
In dit rapport laat de WRR zien dat dit gegeven leidt tot economische, maatschappelijke en politieke druk. Dat heeft brede gevolgen voor inflatie, overheidsbegrotingen, monetair beleid en Europese samenwerking. En die gevolgen raken Nederland. Ook omdat Nederland binnen Europa in een uitzonderlijke positie zit. Nederland vergrijst namelijk relatief langzaam, en heeft juist grote pensioenvermogens. Voorkomen moet worden dat het Nederlandse beleid of de samenleving door die gevolgen van Europese vergrijzing overvallen raakt.
Dit rapport probeert niet de exacte impact van Europese vergrijzing te voorspellen, maar schetst vier mogelijke risico’s voor Europa en voor Nederland:
1. economische stagnatie;
2. hoge staatsschulden en divergentie;
3. opwaartse druk op inflatie;
4. maatschappelijke en politieke spanningen binnen en tussen landen.
Wanneer deze risico’s optreden, dan is schadelijk voor Europa en voor Nederland. Daarom is de centrale boodschap van dit rapport dat de vergrijzing van Europese Unie ook Nederland raakt en hier op de politieke en beleidsagenda moet komen te staan. Alleen dan kan Nederland inspelen op zijn onvermijdelijke toekomst in het hart van een sterk vergrijzend continent
Er is namelijk ook iets aan te doen. Beleid op Europees en nationaal niveau moet zoveel mogelijk mensen stimuleren en faciliteren actief te blijven. Hogere arbeidsparticipatie maakt Europese economieën beter bestand tegen vergrijzing.
Daarom geeft de WRR drie adviezen aan de regering:
1. anticipeer op een vergrijzende Europese Unie;
2. stuur op EU-niveau op het stimuleren én mogelijk maken van meer en langer werken;
3. bescherm via binnenlands beleid tegen negatieve gevolgen van Europese vergrijzing.
... This school of thought argues that population rise is neutral on economic growth. In fact, the association between population growth and economic growth might be insignificant if other control variables are taken into account (such as demographic structure, the level of education, the technological level, the unemployment rate) as Bloom et al. (2003) concluded. The finding of Wesley (2017) revealed that the development country's level plays a critical role in determining the relationship between the two variables, since low population growth in high-income countries is likely to create social and economic problems, while high population growth in low-income countries may slow their development. ...
The relation between population growth and economic growth is a complex one, and the historical quantitative evidence is ambiguous. This study contributes to the population-economic growth literature by interrogating whether the relationship is monotonic or if a turning point exists. Using panel data on a sample of 19 MENA countries from 1965 to 2018 and deploying the PSCE and FGLS techniques, the results reveal inter alia: (1) a U-shaped relation exists; (2) unemployment and financial development are negative predictors of economic growth; and (3) trade and inflation rate are positive predictors. Policy recommendations are discussed.
... Youth represent one of the most critical demographic segments in any society, often referred to as the "demographic dividend" due to their potential to drive economic growth and social transformation (Bloom, (2003)). Pakistan, the fifth most populous country in the world, is home to a significant youth population, with 68% of its 215 million citizens under the age of 30 (Pakistan, (2022)). ...
Pakistan's youth, comprising 68% of the population, represents a critical demographic poised to drive economic growth or, if neglected, exacerbate socioeconomic disparities. This article analyses youth development in Pakistan through four key indices: UNESCO Youth Development Index (YDI), Commonwealth Youth Development Index (CYDI), Global Youth Well-Being Index, and Youth Progress Index (YPI). These indices provide a comprehensive view of youth well-being across education, health, employment, and civic participation, highlighting significant gaps, particularly in education, healthcare, and gender equality. The YDI serves as a critical tool for identifying intervention areas, while the CYDI and Global Youth Well-Being Index emphasize enabling environments and gender equity. The YPI underscores the need for environmental sustainability and social inclusion in youth strategies. The findings lead to actionable recommendations for a holistic, inclusive approach to youth development, aligning with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study offers essential insights for policymakers, emphasizing the urgency of strategic, data-driven youth empowerment in Pakistan.
... Д. Блум, Д. Канінг, Дж. П. Севійа ввели термін «демографічний дивіденд», щоб описати економічний розвиток, який може бути результатом змін у віковій структурі суспільства та зростанні населення [4]. Коли смертність і народжуваність знижуються, рівень життя може зростати, а когорта економічно неактивного населення переходить до працездатного віку, збільшуючи пропозицію робочої сили і спрямовуючи ресурси на заощадження, освіту та зростання продуктивності праці. ...
Економічні наслідки старіння населення перебувають у центрі уваги дедалі більшої кількості досліджень. Традиційна оцінка працездатного віку, яка класифікує старість однаково для кожного покоління (чисельність осіб віком 65 років і старше), ігнорує тенденції у смертності, рівні захворюваності, адаптації суспільного життя до потреб людей з інвалідністю, потенціалу робочої сили, викликаних здоровим старінням. Визначено, що проспективний підхід до вимірювання вікової структури населення, що ґрунтується на очікуваних роках майбутнього життя (в якому очікувана тривалість життя за таблицею дожиття не перевищує 15 років), дає змогу припустити, що економічні наслідки старіння населення будуть менш важкими, ніж оцінки, що базуються на основі хронологічного віку.
... According to Bloom, Canning and Sevilla (2003), high population growth puts substantial pressure on a country's natural resources, infrastructure, and public services such as education, healthcare, and transportation. This can strain the capacity of the economy to provide for the needs of its citizens. ...
This study investigated both the linear and non-linear effects of external debt on economic growth from 1980 to 2022 in South Africa, using linear and non-linear ARDL models. The study also employed a two-regime autoregressive distributed lag (threshold-ARDL) model that involves the lag of economic growth and external debt and found that the threshold level of public debt to GDP in South Africa is 30%, beyond which external debt becomes detrimental to growth. The estimates showed that increasing external debt stock has a substantial adverse bearing on growth in the long run than decreasing external debt stock. The study recommended, among others, the need to expand local capital markets; effective and efficient domestic resource mobilization such as improved tax revenue collections; efficient management of erstwhile inefficient state-owned companies; and mobilization of private sector financing for optimal allocation and utilization.
... Рис. 4. Страны Африки с самыми высокими рисками крупных гуманитарных катастроф в XXI веке с населением (в тыc.), близким к населению России или превышающим его в 2100 году Bloom et al. 2003;Bloom, Williamson, 1998;Bloom et al. 2000;Omoruyi, 2021). Снижение рождаемости приводит к уменьшению молодежных бугров/старению населения -росту медианного возраста, что ведет к уменьшению рисков кровавой социальнополитической дестабилизации 1 . ...
В центре внимания данного выпуска мониторинга находятся революционные процессы в афразийской макрозоне нестабильности, простирающейся от Сахеля (то есть африканских стран, расположенных непосредственно к югу от Сахары) через Северную Африку, Ближний и Средний Восток до постсоветской Центральной Азии. С другой стороны, для понимания закономерностей революционных процессов в этой макрозоне требуется уточнить общие закономерности возникновения революционных событий. Разработка же моделей революционных процессов позволяет предложить прогнозы рисков революционной дестабилизации как на глобальном уровне, так и применительно к странам афразийской макрозоны. Выпуск состоит из пяти разделов. В первом разделе рассматриваются вопросы теории революционных процессов, во втором – проблемы моделирования и количественного анализа революционных и дестабилизационных процессов. Третий раздел анализирует революционные процессы в Сахеле. В четвертом разделе исследуются религиозные, социокультурные и коммуникативные факторы дестабилизации. В заключительном, пятом разделе приведены ма-териалы к базе данных «Революции и революционные эпизоды XXI века». Мониторинг будет интересен не только специалистам, но и всем, кто интересуется дестабилизационными процессами и революциями, их причинами, факторами и механизмами как на Большом Ближнем Востоке, так и в мире в целом.
... In the context of demographic transition, the population structure shifts towards a larger proportion of the working-age population, which increases as the dependent population decreases due to policy intervention. Consequently, three feedback effects of the demographic bonus emerge: a release in labour supply, an increase in savings, and an improvement in the quality of human capital (Bloom et al., 2003). Firstly, the increased labour supply helps suppress wage costs, enhancing industrial competitiveness. ...
The driving force behind population change lies in fertility. Over the past 70 years, Taiwan has undergone a fertility transition, rapidly declining from a high peak of natural fertility levels to an ultralow rate. This transition has released a substantial labor force and lead to a significant shift in resource allocation, contributing to rapid economic development in the late 20th century. During the same period, Taiwan’s population aging has progressed faster than that of most countries worldwide. The dependency ratio has negatively impact economic development, making social security an important aspect of resource allocation. The changes in age structure have introduced the concepts of “demographic bonus” and “demographic onus”. As a vibrant economy with a population of over 23 million, Taiwan has enjoyed the demographic bonus for more than a quarter of a century but is now facing the challenges of an aging society and declining fertility rates towards demographic onus. This article examines demographic transitions, economic performance and development in Taiwan from 1950 to 2020, elaborating on the definition, criteria, and quantitative delineation of the demographic bonus and demographic onus. It utilized population and economic statistics for a comparative analysis of the historical evolution, current situation, and prospects of the bonus and onus periods in Taiwan, providing a comprehensive narrative of its historical and empirical developments. Finally, the study underscores the complexity of balancing economic growth with demographic sustainability, emphasizing the necessity for multiple policy adjustments to address the adverse effects of demographic transitions.
... In the decades after a fertility fall, a demographic dividend can emerge, characterized by a high working-age to dependent population ratio. This period tends to see rapid industrialization, education expansion, and economic growth [2][3][4] . After some decades under this regime, the elderly share of the population begins rising, bringing population aging and its challenges. ...
We provide a novel dataset of human capital-weighted population size (HCWP) for 185 countries from 1970 to 2100. HCWP summarizes a population’s productive capacity and human capital heterogeneity in a single metric, enabling comparisons across countries and over time. The weights are derived from Mincerian earnings functions applied to multi-country census data on educational attainment. The model used to compute the returns to schooling accounts for the diminishing positive relative relationship between education and wages as the overall education of populations rises. The population weights are adjusted by a skills assessment factor representing differences in education quality across countries and years. HCWP is calculated by applying these adjusted human capital weights to population estimates and projections disaggregated by age, sex and education, spanning the period 1970–2020 and 2020–2100 for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. Validation analyses demonstrate the utility of the new HCWP data in explaining national income trends. As a more comprehensive population measure than basic size and age-sex indicators, HCWP enhances the power of statistical models aimed at the assessment of socioeconomic change impacts and forecasting.
... Health is an essential component of human capital that supports worker productivity by enhancing physical capacity and mental capabilities. Health improvements influence economic growth through many pathways: better health increases labor market participation and worker productivity (Bloom & Canning, 2000;Schultz, 2002;Strauss & Thomas, 1998); higher life expectancy creates incentives to invest in education, innovation, and physical capital and attracts inflows of foreign direct investment (Alsan et al., 2006;Bloom et al., 2007Bloom et al., , 2003Cervellati & Sunde, 2013;Prettner, 2013); and better health, particularly that of women, reduces fertility and spurs an economic transition from a state of stagnating incomes toward sustained economic growth (Bloom et al., 2020;Cervellati & Sunde, 2005Galor, 2011;Galor & Weil, 2000). In contrast, epidemics and pandemics can take an enormous human toll and impose a massive burden on economies (Bloom et al., 2022). ...
It is puzzling to note that the ‘sea-change’ in the family size in Oman (from about 9 births in 1988 to 3.3 births per woman in 2008) has occurred in the midst of many paradoxes, which is still remained unnoticed. This study provides a critical review of the recent fertility decline in Oman and its underlying causes. The study is based on data obtained from available national-level surveys, published reports, and the World Population Prospects report. The massive economic and social development, women education and participation in the labor force brought a big change in family formation, reproductive behavior, and lifestyles of women, resulting in a fertility decline in Oman. Delayed age at marriage and spacing birth appeared as the major cause of fertility decline in Oman. The tradition of prolonged duration of breastfeeding also contributes to declining fertility. The Omani government should be aware of the current trends in fertility and its consequences, and adopt the culturally appropriate policy for future population management.
This study aims to analyze and compare migration data with the population growth projections of Gorontalo Province for the 2020–2035 period. A descriptive quantitative approach was used to evaluate in- and out-migration patterns based on the 2020 Long Form Population Census and BPS population projections. The findings reveal regional migration disparities, with Gorontalo City and Bone Bolango Regency experiencing positive net migration, while Pohuwato and Boalemo show high out-migration rates. Meanwhile, the demographic projections indicate an increasing dependency ratio and a significant growth in the elderly population. The combination of migration dynamics and demographic trends affects the age structure and regional capacity to support sustainable development. These findings provide an essential basis for evidence-based migration policy formulation to reduce regional disparities and strengthen local economic development.
This paper examines the intersection between entrepreneurship government policy and managerial theory. The context chosen for this study is India. India has experienced a significant global geopolitical shift that is coinciding with India’s domestic policy reforms and notable domestic initiatives. Since 2014, India’s entrepreneurial ecosystem has seen a significant increase in the number of startups and unicorns. This paper presents arguments that the confluence of global realignments, such as the diversification of supply chains away from China and increasing interest in the Indo-Pacific region, along with domestic initiatives like “Make in India”, “Startup India”, and digitalization drives, along with massive investments in infrastructure improvements, have made India a desirable destination for entrepreneurial activity. By examining these factors through the lens of three theories—resource-based view, global value chain, and innovation ecosystem theory—this paper identifies key opportunities and challenges for entrepreneurs across various sectors. It is hoped that this research will contribute to a deeper understanding of India’s evolving entrepreneurial landscape. In addition, entrepreneurs, policymakers, and investors can benefit from this article to understand the opportunities and challenges India poses in order to contribute to India’s continued economic growth and its emergence as a global entrepreneurial powerhouse. Finally, this paper helps to bridge the gap between economic policy and management theory.
This model offers a compelling explanation for the observed decline in fertility rates in developed countries, correlating it with the rising economic status of women, and thereby providing valuable insights for policy-making. In summary, through a game theory model, we identify the rising economic status of women as the underlying cause of low fertility rates in modern developed countries.
Economic growth is a description of the economic activities of a region in a continuous manner towards better economic activities in a certain period, so this discussion aims to analyze the influence of gender-based work pertypi and population density on economic growth in South Sulawesi by using time series and cross section data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency from 2018 to 2022. The method used in this discussion is using a quantitative method with a panel data regression analysis approach. The results of the study show that the gender-based work participation variable has a significant positive effect on economic growth in South Sulawesi and the variable of seat density has a significant negative effect on economic growth in South Sulawesi. Meanwhile, simultaneously gender-based work participation variables and population density have a significant impact on economic growth in South Sulawesi. So this result shows that the government must continue to encourage work participation for both men and women through the provision of jobs.
In this working paper, I developed a suite of macroeconomic models that shed light on the intricate relationship between economic development, health, and fertility. These innovative models conceptualize health as an intermediate good, paving the way for new interpretations of dynamic socio-economic phenomena, particularly the non-monotonic effects of health on economic and population growth. The evolving dynamic interactions among economic growth, population, and health during the early stages of human development have been well interpreted in this research.
Indonesia is expected to reach its demographic dividend peak by 2035. After this period, the productive-age population will transition into an ageing population, increasing dependency on the working-age group. This demographic shift demands holistic policies to create age-friendly work environments, empower the elderly, and ensure inclusive protection to sustain Indonesia’s economy. By 2050, the population aged 65 and above will reach 56 million, with life expectancy increasing to 79.64 years. In 2023, approximately 53.93% of Indonesia’s elderly population remained employed. Although Presidential Regulation No. 88/2021 addresses the National Elderly Strategy, it requires revision to enhance the empowerment and protection of elderly workers. Learning from other countries, ASEAN nations like Singapore and Malaysia have enacted re-employment laws for workers over 60. At the same time, Japan and South Korea implement re-employment programs, training, and workforce placement for the elderly. To address the ageing population, Indonesia must develop a comprehensive national strategy, including re-employment schemes, skill development, entrepreneurship, social protection, and the silver economy. A five-year roadmap (2025-2029) outlines the strategy’s phased implementation: strengthening policies and public awareness in 2025, program implementation in 2026, expansion of re-employment and entrepreneurship in 2027, silver economy development in 2028, and program sustainability by 2029.
This study undertakes a comparative assessment of poverty trends and socioeconomic inequality across the diverse landscape of Nigerian states. Utilizing robust statistical methodologies and data from various sources including national surveys, census data, and socioeconomic indicators, we present a comparative analysis of poverty levels and income disparities within and between Nigerian states over a specified period of 1999-2019. Our assessment focuses on identifying key drivers of poverty and inequality, including economic growth patterns, demographic factors, government policies, and regional disparities. By employing advanced analytical techniques such as regression analysis, Lorenz curves, and Gini coefficients, we unveil nuanced insights into the dynamics of poverty and inequality, shedding light on both persistent challenges and potential pathways for socioeconomic development. The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of the multifaceted nature of poverty and inequality in Nigeria, offering valuable implications for policy formulation and targeted intervention strategies aimed at fostering inclusive growth and equitable development across the nation's diverse socioeconomic landscape.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh rasio ketergantungan, tenaga kerja, dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Jambi. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kuantitatif dengan pendekatan analisis regresi linier berganda. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder dari periode 2003-2022. Variabel terikat dalam penelitian ini adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diukur melalui Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB), sementara variabel bebasnya meliputi rasio ketergantungan, jumlah tenaga kerja, dan IPM. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan ketiga variabel independen memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Jambi. Namun, secara parsial, hanya dua variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan, yaitu rasio ketergantungan dan IPM. Variabel rasio ketergantungan menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan negatif, yang berarti bahwa semakin rendah rasio ketergantungan, semakin tinggi tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sementara itu, variabel IPM menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan positif, yang menandakan bahwa peningkatan kualitas pembangunan manusia berkontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Di sisi lain, variabel tenaga kerja tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Jambi. Analisis koefisien determinasi menunjukkan bahwa model penelitian ini sudah tepat, dengan sebagian besar variasi pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat dijelaskan oleh ketiga variabel independen tersebut. Dengan demikian, rasio ketergantungan, IPM, dan tenaga kerja, meskipun bervariasi dalam pengaruhnya, dapat dipertimbangkan sebagai faktor penting dalam menentukan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di Provinsi Jambi. Kata kunci: Pertumbuhan ekonomi, rasio ketergantungan, tenaga kerja, indeks pembangunan manusia (IPM), regresi linier berganda.
This study examines the influence of demographic changes, including population growth, fertility, mortality, migration, and urbanization, on Uzbekistan's labor market dynamics. The research aims to analyze how demographic trends shape employment, the labor force, and the broader socioeconomic landscape. Methodologically, the study employs empirical data analysis, statistical grouping, and dynamic comparative approaches to assess the implications of demographic factors on employment and unemployment. The findings reveal that demographic processes significantly impact job creation, labor market stability, and socioeconomic development. The research underscores the necessity of integrating demographic policy with labor market strategies to address regional disparities and optimize workforce participation.
This study investigated the transmission effect of population growth on economic growth through human capital development in Nigeria, covering the period from 1983-2022. The study relied on secondary data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the World Bank development indicators. The augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was used to examine the stationary properties of the data. Additionally, structural vector autoregressive models were employed for analysis. The findings indicated an insignificant negative instantaneous effect of economic growth on population growth and human capital development in Nigeria. Regarding the transmission effect of population growth and human capital development on economic growth, the study concluded that population growth had a positive effect on Nigeria's economic growth through human capital. However, this positive effect was only realized in the long run. The study, therefore, recommended sustained investment in education, skills, and healthcare. It also suggested that governments at all levels should develop and implement comprehensive, long-term strategies to improve the quality of education, vocational training, and healthcare services, fostering a skilled and healthy workforce over time.
Objective: to identify the main trends in the studies of the PRC demographic problems by Chinese researchers; to determine the main directions of developments within the concept of demographic dividend in terms of their main problems and prospects for further adjustments in accordance with the ever-changing state demographic policy and the goals of sustainable development.
Methods: qualitative methods (comparative analysis, generalization) of a systematic review of empirical studies.
Results: the main trends and directions of modern Chinese demographic research are highlighted, one of which is the study of demographic processes as an important factor in the development of further trajectory of the PRC sustainable development. It is concluded that Chinese authors often write about the aging population as a competitive advantage of China. They explainthat with a competent economic and demographic policy, the “silver generation” will become an active participant in the economic and production activities of the country, making a noticeable contribution to GDP. We also analyze alternative approaches to the concept of demographic dividend, in which the main factor of China’s economic growth is determined notas the quantity but as the quality of labor force.
Scientific novelty: the article systematizes the works by Chinese researchers in the context of the demographic dividend and identifies their main problems and focuses.
Practical significance: the main conclusions of the article can be used in scientific and pedagogical activities in the study of economic and demographic policy of China. The research results can also be studied to clarify the demographic policy of the Russian Federation.
This research paper explores the views of 382 business leaders in South Africa on the potential effects of modifying or removing the requirement for tertiary education qualifications for entry-level jobs. The study is based on a quantitative survey of small and medium business leaders, proportionally selected based on the population of each of the nine provinces. The survey results show a majority agreement among business leaders that, except for roles within Engineering, Education and the Law, there is limited need to enforce tertiary education as a prerequisite for entry-level jobs. Further results highlight their perspectives in relation to the implementation of such a policy and the subsequent impact on tertiary education, society, the economy and overall inequality. This proposed change could enhance inclusivity within the job market, especially benefiting those who are economically unable to pursue higher education. The paper proposes that this policy adjustment could significantly diminish wealth and income inequality in South Africa. Although it may not directly reduce the high rates of unemployment, this policy initiative is a key step towards reducing the severe inequality prevalent in the nation by widening the scope of job opportunities available in various sectors, thereby providing a unique approach to fostering socioeconomic equity.
في السنوات الأخيرة، برز الاهتمام واضحا بدراسة التفاعل بين الأوبئة والديموجرافيا وتغير المناخ كمجال بحثي بالغ الأهمية. لقد شهد العالم زيادة كبيرة في تفشي الأمراض المعدية، بما في ذلك جائحة كوفيد_19، التي كان لها عواقب وخيمة على نطاق عالمي، مما أثر على الحياة وسبل العيش لبني البشر في كافة أنحاء المعمورة . وقد تسببت الأوبئة المختلفة مثل فيروس كورونا والمتلازمات التنفسية الحادة (ميرس وسارس) في عام 2003، وجائحة إنفلونزا الخنازير عام 2009، وفيروس كورونا المسبب لمتلازمة الشرق الأوسط التنفسية 2012 ، ووباء مرض فيروس إيبولا 2013-2016 في غرب إفريقيا ، ووباء مرض فيروس زيكا 2015 في حدوث خسائر في الأرواح وتهديدات كبرى عبر الحدود في العديد من البلدان. في الوقت نفسه، شهدت العقود القليلة الماضية تغيرات لا مثيل لها في التكنولوجيا والتركيبة السكانية والمناخ. لقد تضاعف السفر عبر الجو منذ عام 2000، وتجاوز التوسع الحضري الحياة الريفية منذ عام 2007، كما استمر النمو السكاني في الارتفاع بلا هوادة ، وبالإضافة إلى ذلك بات التهديد المتصاعد لتغير المناخ يشكل تحديات إضافية للمجتمع .
ومن الملاحظ أن دراسات الاتجاهات في التغيرات السكانية والملامح الوبائية في العالم النامي اعتمدت بشكل كبير على مفاهيم التحولات الديموغرافية والوبائية والصحية، على الرغم من أن فائدتها في وصف وفهم الاتجاهات السكانية والصحية في البلدان النامية قد تم التشكيك فيها مرارًا وتكرارًا . هذه القضية ذات صلة خاصة بدراسة أنماط صحة السكان في أفريقيا تحديدا، حيث يختلف التاريخ والخبرة هنا اختلافًا جوهريًا عن تاريخ أوروبا الغربية وأمريكا الشمالية، التي شهدت تطوير هذه المفاهيم في الأصل. ولعل ذلك يدعو إلى الحاجة إلى تأسيس رؤية معرفية بديلة تعبر عن تطلعات دول الجنوب العالمي. وعليه يهدف هذا الفصل إلى استكشاف العلاقات الديناميكية المعقدة بين هذه العوامل الثلاثة المترابطة، انطلاقا من هذه الرؤية المعرفية مع التركيز بشكل خاص على إفريقيا. تتمثل الفرضية الرئيسية لهذا الفصل في أن الأوبئة والتحولات الديموغرافية وتغير المناخ مرتبطة ارتباطًا وثيقًا، مما يؤدي إلى آثار اجتماعية وصحية وبيئية كبيرة. ومن خلال تحليل ومناقشة عدد من دراسات الحالة، سنحلل الأبعاد المختلفة لهذه العلاقة ونلقي الضوء على التحديات التي تواجهها المجتمعات في إفريقيا.
وللتعمق في هذا الموضوع، سوف يطرح الفصل التساؤلات الرئيسية التالية:
- هل تتصاعد مخاطر الأوبئة بسبب التغيرات المناخية؟ وهل تؤدي الأوبئة وتغير المناخ إلى ضغوط على الموارد، مما يؤدي إلى تفاقم عوامل الانكشاف والضعف؟
- هل تتسبب الأوبئة وتغير المناخ في عدم الاستقرار على المستويين المجتمعي والإيكولوجي؟ كيف يتم التفاعل والتأثير والتأثر؟
- هل ساهمت التحولات الديموغرافية في انتشار الأوبئة، لا سيما من خلال تغيير مسارات الهجرة، مثل هيمنة الهجرة الآسيوية والأفريقية خارج أراضيها؟
- هل هناك عوامل وسيطة تؤثر على العلاقة بين الأوبئة والمناخ والديموجرافيا، مثل الفساد وغياب الحكم الرشيد أو محددات أخرى؟
- هل تمتلك البلدان القدرة على إدارة أزمات المناخ والأوبئة بشكل فعال؟ ما هي التحديات الرئيسية التي تواجهها من حيث التأهب والاستجابة والتكيف؟
ولمعالجة هذه الأسئلة البحثية، سيتم استخدام نمهج متعدد الأبعاد في هذا الفصل. سيشمل البحث تحليلات كيفية، بالاعتماد على مصادر مختلفة من البيانات والمعلومات. كما سيتم إجراء تحليل كيفي لاستكشاف الأطر النظرية والمفاهيمية للعلاقات بين الأوبئة والديموجرافيا وتغير المناخ. وسيشمل ذلك مراجعة شاملة وتوليفًا للأدبيات الأكاديمية ذات الصلة ووثائق السياسة والتقارير من المنظمات الدولية. سيوفر هذا النمط من التحليل أساسًا لتطوير الإطار النظري وتحديد المفاهيم والمتغيرات الرئيسية لمزيد من الدراسة والبحث. كما سيتم اختيار دراسات الحالة كأمثلة توضيحية لتعزيز فهم العلاقات المعقدة بين الأوبئة والديموجرافيا وتغير المناخ في إفريقيا.
وعليه يهدف هذا الفصل إلى تعميق فهمنا للتحديات التي تواجهها المجتمعات الأفريقية فيما يتعلق بالأوبئة والديموجرافيا وتغير المناخ. ويسمح الإطار المنهجي المستخدم في هذا البحث بإجراء فحص شامل للعلاقات والديناميكيات المعقدة بين هذه العوامل، وبالتالي توفير رؤى مهمة للتدخلات القائمة على الأدلة وتطوير السياسات. في النهاية، يساهم هذا البحث في المجال الأوسع للصحة العالمية ويسلط الضوء على أهمية معالجة الترابط بين الأوبئة والديموجرافيا وتغير المناخ في إفريقيا وخارجها.
This study provides an in-depth analysis of global life expectancy trends, drawing on comprehensive data from the United Nations and other reputable sources for the year 2024. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the research examines the factors influencing longevity across various populations, including socio-economic conditions, healthcare access, genetic predispositions, and lifestyle determinants. Quantitative data reveal significant disparities in life expectancy, with averages ranging from 57.7 years in Western Africa to 82.7 years in Western Europe. The study highlights improvements in global life expectancy, attributed to better child survival rates and access to antiretroviral treatments for HIV/AIDS. Additionally, the analysis underscores the role of healthcare expenditure in enhancing life expectancy and reducing infant mortality rates. Recommendations for policymakers include investing in healthcare infrastructure, promoting preventive healthcare, and addressing social determinants of health to mitigate disparities and improve health outcomes globally.
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