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Changes in Animal Activity Prior to a Major (M=7) Earthquake in the Peruvian Andes
Abstract
During earthquake preparation geophysical processes occur over varying temporal and spatial scales, some leaving their mark on the surface environment, on various biota, and even affecting the ionosphere. Reports on pre-seismic changes in animal behaviour have been greeted with scepticism by the scientific community due to the necessarily anecdotal nature of much of the evidence and a lack of consensus over possible causal mechanisms. Here we present records of changes in the abundance of mammals and birds obtained over a 30 day period by motion-triggered cameras at the Yanachaga National Park, Peru, prior to the 2011 magnitude 7.0 Contamana earthquake. In addition we report on ionospheric perturbations derived from night-time very low frequency (VLF) phase data along a propagation paths passing over the epicentral region. Animal activity declined significantly over a 3-week period prior to the earthquake compared to periods of low seismic activity. Night-time ionospheric phase perturbations of the VLF signals above the epicentral area, fluctuating over the course of a few minutes, were observed, starting 2 weeks before the earthquake. The concurrent observation of two widely different and seemingly unconnected precursory phenomena is of interest because recently, it has been proposed that the multitude of reported pre-earthquake phenomena may arise from a single underlying physical process: the stress-activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers in the Earth’s crust and their flow to the Earth’s surface. The flow of charge carriers through the rock column constitutes and electric current, which is expected to fluctuate and thereby emit electromagnetic radiation in the ultralow frequency (ULF) regime. The arrival of the charge carriers can lead to air ionization at the ground-to-air interface and the injection of massive amounts of positive airborne ions, known to be aversive to animals.
... Most famously, the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (magnitude M 7.3) in China was anticipated based on human observations of animal behavior, such as snakes or rats leaving their burrows in winter (Wang, Chen, Sun, & Wang, 2006). Similar observations are rare (Whitehead, Ulusoy, Asahara, & Ikeya, 2004), but recently evidence accumulated that animals in earthquake areas may show aberrant behavior (Fidani, 2013;Fidani, Freund, & Grant, 2014;Freund & Stolc, 2013;Grant, Raulin, & Freund, 2015;Li et al., 2009;Whitehead et al., 2004;Yamauchi, Uchiyama, Ohtani, & Ohta, 2014;Yokoi, Ikeya, Yagi, & Nagai, 2003). Nevertheless, a recent review (Woith, Petersen, Hainzl, & Dahm, 2018) points out the sparsity of data and need for testable quantitative measures on animal-anticipated earthquake occurrence. ...
... In many reports on anticipatory animal behavior, these three conditions have been met only partially (Buskirk, Frohlich, & Latham, 1981;Kirschvink, 2000;Logan, 1977;Lott, Hart, Verosub, & Howell, 1979;McClellan, 1980). More recently, several approaches proposed to quantify animal behavior in accordance with the abovementioned conditions (Van Buskirk et al., 1981;Grant & Halliday, 2010;Grant et al., 2011Grant et al., , 2015Ikeya, Furuta, Kajiwara, & Anzai, 1996;Kenagy & Enright, 1980;Kirschvink, 2000;Logan, 1977;Lott, Hart, Howell, & Verosub, 1978;Tributsch, 1982aTributsch, , 1982b. Among others, the use of camera traps for birds and mammals and the use of locomotor sensors for mice have shown potential to be useful to detect behavioral changes in animal behavior prior to earthquakes (Buskirk et al., 1981;Grant & Halliday, 2010;Grant et al., 2011Grant et al., , 2015Ikeya et al., 1996;Kenagy & Enright, 1980;Kirschvink, 2000;Logan, 1977;Lott et al., 1978;Tributsch, 1982aTributsch, , 1982b. ...
... More recently, several approaches proposed to quantify animal behavior in accordance with the abovementioned conditions (Van Buskirk et al., 1981;Grant & Halliday, 2010;Grant et al., 2011Grant et al., , 2015Ikeya, Furuta, Kajiwara, & Anzai, 1996;Kenagy & Enright, 1980;Kirschvink, 2000;Logan, 1977;Lott, Hart, Howell, & Verosub, 1978;Tributsch, 1982aTributsch, , 1982b. Among others, the use of camera traps for birds and mammals and the use of locomotor sensors for mice have shown potential to be useful to detect behavioral changes in animal behavior prior to earthquakes (Buskirk et al., 1981;Grant & Halliday, 2010;Grant et al., 2011Grant et al., , 2015Ikeya et al., 1996;Kenagy & Enright, 1980;Kirschvink, 2000;Logan, 1977;Lott et al., 1978;Tributsch, 1982aTributsch, , 1982b. ...
Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short‐term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. Before, during and after the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we deployed bio‐logging tags to continuously observe the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, and sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct–Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan–Apr 2017). Relating 5,304 (in 2016) and 12,948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a building (stable), but not during their time on a pasture. We detected these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1–20 hr) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous bio‐logging of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre‐seismic activity that could yield valuable insights for short‐term earthquake forecasting. Based on a priori model parameters, we provide empirical threshold values for pre‐seismic animal activities to be used in real‐time observation stations. A collective of domestic farm animals repeatedly showed unusually high activity levels before earthquakes, with anticipation times (1–20 hr) negatively related to distance from epicenters (5–28 km). We propose a system of “living sentinels” for the scientific testing of potential anticipation of earthquakes through animal activities.
... A more recent study (Grant et al., 2015) recorded changes in the behavior of mammals and birds obtained over a 30 day period by motiontriggered cameras located in a large national forest in Peru prior to a major EQ (M = 7.0) that occurred at a distance of 323 km from the forest. In addition, they collected VLF EMF measurements, along a propagation path passing over the epicentral region, attributed to ionospheric perturbations. ...
... Preseismic VLF/LF EMF-emissions (already reported in studies on animal behavioral changes) are considered to be due to ionospheric perturbations linked in recent years with EQs, indicating a seismoionospheric coupling (Maekawa et al., 2006;Rozhnoi et al., 2007). It has been suggested that electric charges produced by rock compression at the EQ focal area are released into the atmosphere causing perturbations in the Earth-ionosphere electric field (Grant et al., 2015). The electric field intensity of such emissions is found to be on the order of 1 mV/m measured at~200 kHz (Biagi et al., 2008). ...
... The electric field intensity of such emissions is found to be on the order of 1 mV/m measured at~200 kHz (Biagi et al., 2008). These EMFemissions in several cases are reported to occur a few days later than the animal behavioral changes (Grant et al., 2015;Hayakawa, 2013;Yamauchi et al., 2017) ...
It is documented that a few days or weeks before major Earthquakes (EQs) there are changes in animal behavior within distances up to 500 km from the seismic epicenter. At the same time Seismic Electric Signals (SES), geomagnetic and ionospheric perturbations, are detected within similar distances. SES consist of single unipolar pulses, and/or groups of such pulses called “SES activities” with an average frequency between successive pulses on the order of ~0.01 Hz and electric field intensity on the order of ~10-5-10-4 V/m (Frazer-Smith et al 1990; Rikitake 1998; Varotsos et al 1993; 2011; 2019; Hayakawa et al 2013; Grant et al 2015). We show that the SES activities can be sensed by living organisms through the “Ion Forced-Oscillation Mechanism” for the action of Electromagnetic Fields (EMFs) on cells, according to which polarized EMFs can cause irregular gating of electro-sensitive ion channels on the cell membranes with consequent disruption of the cell electrochemical balance (Panagopoulos et al 2000; 2002; 2015). This can be sensed by sensitive animals as discomfort in cases of weak and transient exposures, and may even lead to DNA damage and serious health implications in cases of intense exposure conditions (as in certain cases of man-made EMF exposures). Moreover, we show that the geomagnetic and ionospheric perturbations cannot be sensed through this mechanism. The same mechanism has explained meteoropathy, the sensing of upcoming thunderstorms by sensitive individuals, through the action of the EMFs of lightning discharges (Panagopoulos and Balmori 2017). The present study shows that centuries-long anecdotal rumors of animals sensing intense upcoming EQs and displaying unusual behavior, lately documented by systematic studies, are now explained for the first time on the basis of the electromagnetic nature of all living organisms, and the electromagnetic signals emitted prior to EQs.
... Most famously, the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (magnitude M 7.3) in China was anticipated based on human observations of animal behavior, such as snakes or rats leaving their burrows in winter (Wang, Chen, Sun, & Wang, 2006). Similar observations are rare (Whitehead, Ulusoy, Asahara, & Ikeya, 2004), but recently evidence accumulated that animals in earthquake areas may show aberrant behavior (Fidani, 2013;Fidani, Freund, & Grant, 2014;Freund & Stolc, 2013;Grant, Raulin, & Freund, 2015;Li et al., 2009;Whitehead et al., 2004;Yamauchi, Uchiyama, Ohtani, & Ohta, 2014;Yokoi, Ikeya, Yagi, & Nagai, 2003). Nevertheless, a recent review (Woith, Petersen, Hainzl, & Dahm, 2018) points out the sparsity of data and need for testable quantitative measures on animal-anticipated earthquake occurrence. ...
... In many reports on anticipatory animal behavior, these three conditions have been met only partially (Buskirk, Frohlich, & Latham, 1981;Kirschvink, 2000;Logan, 1977;Lott, Hart, Verosub, & Howell, 1979;McClellan, 1980). More recently, several approaches proposed to quantify animal behavior in accordance with the abovementioned conditions (Van Buskirk et al., 1981;Grant & Halliday, 2010;Grant et al., 2011Grant et al., , 2015Ikeya, Furuta, Kajiwara, & Anzai, 1996;Kenagy & Enright, 1980;Kirschvink, 2000;Logan, 1977;Lott, Hart, Howell, & Verosub, 1978;Tributsch, 1982aTributsch, , 1982b. Among others, the use of camera traps for birds and mammals and the use of locomotor sensors for mice have shown potential to be useful to detect behavioral changes in animal behavior prior to earthquakes (Buskirk et al., 1981;Grant & Halliday, 2010;Grant et al., 2011Grant et al., , 2015Ikeya et al., 1996;Kenagy & Enright, 1980;Kirschvink, 2000;Logan, 1977;Lott et al., 1978;Tributsch, 1982aTributsch, , 1982b. ...
... More recently, several approaches proposed to quantify animal behavior in accordance with the abovementioned conditions (Van Buskirk et al., 1981;Grant & Halliday, 2010;Grant et al., 2011Grant et al., , 2015Ikeya, Furuta, Kajiwara, & Anzai, 1996;Kenagy & Enright, 1980;Kirschvink, 2000;Logan, 1977;Lott, Hart, Howell, & Verosub, 1978;Tributsch, 1982aTributsch, , 1982b. Among others, the use of camera traps for birds and mammals and the use of locomotor sensors for mice have shown potential to be useful to detect behavioral changes in animal behavior prior to earthquakes (Buskirk et al., 1981;Grant & Halliday, 2010;Grant et al., 2011Grant et al., , 2015Ikeya et al., 1996;Kenagy & Enright, 1980;Kirschvink, 2000;Logan, 1977;Lott et al., 1978;Tributsch, 1982aTributsch, , 1982b. ...
Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short-term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. During the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we instrumentally observed the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct-Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan-Apr 2017). Relating 5304 (in 2016) and 12948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a stable, but not during their time on a pasture. We detect these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1-20hrs) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous instrumental monitoring of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre-seismic activity that could allow for short-term earthquake forecasting.
One Sentence Summary
A collective of domestic animals repeatedly showed unusually high activity levels before earthquakes, with anticipation times (1-20h) negatively related to distance from epicenters (5-28km).
... Further they have indicated that these days were coincident with those of ionospheric perturbations as detected by subionospheric VLF/LF propagation by Hayakawa et al. [32]- [34], without commenting on a possible mechanism of abnormal animal behavior. Another interesting paper has been published recently by Grant et al. (2015) [35], who have shown the unusual behavior of animals in the national park prior to a major (M = 7) EQ in the Peruvian Andes, and this abnormal animal behavior was coincident in time with the dates of ionospheric perturbation by the VLF propagation anomalies. Then, they have proposed a possible agent for both the abnormal animal behavior and ionospheric perturbation by a common effect of air ionization due to the pre-EQ generation of positive hole carriers [36]. ...
... Further they have indicated that these days were coincident with those of ionospheric perturbations as detected by subionospheric VLF/LF propagation by Hayakawa et al. [32]- [34], without commenting on a possible mechanism of abnormal animal behavior. Another interesting paper has been published recently by Grant et al. (2015) [35], who have shown the unusual behavior of animals in the national park prior to a major (M = 7) EQ in the Peruvian Andes, and this abnormal animal behavior was coincident in time with the dates of ionospheric perturbation by the VLF propagation anomalies. Then, they have proposed a possible agent for both the abnormal animal behavior and ionospheric perturbation by a common effect of air ionization due to the pre-EQ generation of positive hole carriers [36]. ...
... However, in complete contradiction with those synchronous temporal evolutions of abnormal animal behavior and ionospheric perturbations in the above two case studies [25] [35], Figure 3 as our summary for the precursory phenomena for the 2013 Kobe EQ, indicate a completely different view on the correlations of the abnormal animal behavior with corresponding electromagnetic signatures. Hayakawa (2013) [37] presented a hypothesis of the possible seismogenic ULF/ELF radiation as the agent for abnormal animal behavior based on the extensive comparison of the characteristics of abnormal animal behavior by Rikitake [2] with those of different electromagnetic phenomena so far reported [3]- [6]. ...
After the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (EQ), there have been numerous aftershocks in the eastern and Pacific Ocean of Japan, but EQs are still rare in the western part of Japan. In this situation a relatively large (magnitude (M) ~6) EQ happened on April 12 (UT), 2013 at a place close to the former 1995 Kobe EQ (M~7), so we have tried to find whether there existed any precursors to this EQ, especially abnormal animal behavior (milk yield of cows), observed at Kagawa, Shikoku, near the EQ epicenter. The milk yield of cows has been continuously monitored at Kagawa, and it is found that the milk yield exhibited an abnormal depletion about 10 days before the EQ. This behavior has been extensively compared with the former electromagnetic precursors (ULF radiation, ionospheric perturbation). This leads to the discussion on the sensory mechanism of unusual behavior of mild yield of cows, and it may be suggested that ULF radiation among different electromagnetic precursors is a mostly likely driver, at least, for this EQ.
... Earthquake usually cannot be forecasted (Geller et al. 1997), but several studies have been published highlighting the statistical and machine learning models that help to predict the behavior of the earthquake (Brehm and Braile 1998;Ellsworth et al. 1999;Davis et al. 2000;Kirschvink 2000). Overall electron matter of ion spare (Pulinets and Ouzounov 2011), earthquakes electric field and magnetic field, calculation of total events of earthquake occurred in the past (Panakkat and Adeli 2007), and the behaviors of animals (Grant et al. 2015) are used to understand the behavior of earthquakes. During an earthquake, complex seismic and geological activity under the surface took place, these activities cause a change in soil emission ionosphere and vertical electric field, and these changes are studied for the prediction analysis (Li et al. 2016;Jilani et al. 2017). ...
... During an earthquake, complex seismic and geological activity under the surface took place, these activities cause a change in soil emission ionosphere and vertical electric field, and these changes are studied for the prediction analysis (Li et al. 2016;Jilani et al. 2017). Grant et al. (2015) studied the movement of animals by the motion sensor cameras at Yanachaga National park, Peru, but in this research, the prediction is done on the bases of the machine learning techniques, and the collated seismic data from the statistical analysis. Aslam and Naseer (2020) carried out a statistical study of earthquakes in Southern Pakistan and identified several clusters. ...
Earthquake is one of the foremost perils that cause several damages in northern Pakistan. Numerous investigations have been put forward to recognize seismic behavior in the region for better disaster management. Earthquake data recorded from 1980 to 2019 are used in this study. The methodology used is an integrated study of seismology, statistical, and machine learning algorithms. In this study, statistical clustering hotspots analysis including quadrant count analysis, Getis–Ord general G, Anselin Local Moran’s I, average nearest neighbor, kernel density estimation, Getis–Ord , and global Moran’s I are carried out to classify the zones of higher seismicity regions. Once hotspots are identified then from the neural network algorithm, the seismic prediction is modeled in these regions. An artificial neural network is exercised in this research; magnitudes greater or equal to 4 (M ≥ 4) are used as models’ input data. In addition, the basic binary classification performance measures, i.e., true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative, are exploited to predict the accuracy of the model. Results show that the area near to the Pak–Afghan border in the Hindukush Range and in the central part of the area where MBT is positioned are hotspot regions and have high seismicity. The neural network model gives a 69% positive predictive value for the study area. It is concluded that this study provides the baseline for the understanding of the hotspots in the region and the prediction model gives significant prediction to build a more complex model for further assessment.
... • At Mount Etna in Sicily, many researchers noted that goat became nervous and ran away from the pens before the hour of volcanic eruption during 2012 and they hypothesised that the gasses produced from the tremors are the first sign of warning (Rachel, 2015;Bailey, 2019). ...
... • At Yanachaga National Park, Peru in 2011, scientists observed that the unusual behaviour of the birds and mammal before the earthquake, animals activities decreased sharply with an altered ionosphere in a week before the earthquake (Rachel., 2015;Bailey, 2019). The pigeons in China flew away from the place of the earthquake at the magnitude of 4.0 and the researcher concluded that the presence of tiny sensors between the tibia and fibula are the main source of prediction. ...
Insects and other animals have strong receptors to detect the changes in the surrounding environment. They have the special sense organs compared to higher animals to perceive the change in the earth magnetic field and infrasound (<20 Hz) which are faster than the ultrasounds (>20 Hz). The natural calamities viz., earthquake, volcanic eruption, tornado, tsunami and avalanches produce the pneuma gasses and infrasound by series of mechanisms and these can be detected by insects and animals with their special receptors to evade. Various reports and eye witnesses data from different parts of the globe says that, unusual behaviour of insects and other animals before the calamities are the first sign of sensing the natural disaster compared to humans. The current article is an endeavour to explain, how insects and animals escape from the natural calamities by adopting different mechanisms with supporting examples. Also, it will promote the researcher to work in line with insects and animal prediction mechanisms against natural calamities in further details.
... This result in production of positive ions which travel through troposphere to ionosphere and join electrons and as the process continues, it leads to increase in concentration of electrons thus leading to high TEC values. The basic hypothesis of near surface layer ionisation has been demonstrated by experimental set up and instrumental observation in different parts of world by same set of authors and other workers (Freund et al., 2009;Freund, 2011;Grant et al., 2015). ...
... Therefore, for all the 4 events, mostly high TEC values were observed during preceding 7e8 days time period, except for one event for which low TEC value was observed prior to the event. During initial phase (around 15 days prior to the event) of anomalous period, negative anomalies were observed which may indicate sudden flow of electrons due to ionisation at near surface level as postulated by Freund et al. (2009), Freund (2011 and Grant et al. (2015). Geomagnetic activity and solar flare were also studied for the observation period to ascertain their role in ionospheric perturbations, however, no such phenomena were observed by global data centres (NOAA). ...
... This result in production of positive ions which travel through troposphere to ionosphere and join electrons and as the process continues, it leads to increase in concentration of electrons thus leading to high TEC values. The basic hypothesis of near surface layer ionisation has been demonstrated by experimental set up and instrumental observation in different parts of world by same set of authors and other workers (Freund et al., 2009;Freund, 2011;Grant et al., 2015). ...
... Therefore, for all the 4 events, mostly high TEC values were observed during preceding 7e8 days time period, except for one event for which low TEC value was observed prior to the event. During initial phase (around 15 days prior to the event) of anomalous period, negative anomalies were observed which may indicate sudden flow of electrons due to ionisation at near surface level as postulated by Freund et al. (2009), Freund (2011 and Grant et al. (2015). Geomagnetic activity and solar flare were also studied for the observation period to ascertain their role in ionospheric perturbations, however, no such phenomena were observed by global data centres (NOAA). ...
In present study, we measured the Total Electron Content (TEC) variation in the ionosphere from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data which might have been induced by earthquakes in the Himalayan region. The results were analysed with other inducing factors (geomagnetic storm and solar flare) affecting TEC in order to constraint the causative factor. The study has been performed to understand a relationship between ionospheric electron content and earthquakes occurrences with special emphasis on Himalayan region and provides information on spatio-temporal variation of TEC from GNSS observation stations vis-à-vis prominent earthquakes of the region. The results indicate that the ground based GNSS (GPS) observations show the deviation in vertical total electron content (vTEC) in ionosphere few days prior to the seismic event as evident from our two continuously operating reference stations (CORS) as well as from CORS of UNAVCO data centre. Ionospheric perturbation has also been observed in case of low magnitude earthquakes (Mw 4.9 in present study) whenever recording station lies very close to the epicentre. TEC variation is found to increase as the epicentre distances decreases. In case of Mw 7.8, 2015 Nepal earthquake the TEC variation is found to increase by 15–20 TEC unit recorded at station separated by 60 km apart. This may provide us the avenue for epicentre detection as TEC concentration was found to increase as we move closer to the epicentre. TEC variations (mostly high TEC) have been observed during a period of 0–8 days prior to 4 earthquakes: 1st April 2015 Pipalkoti earthquake (4.9Mw), 25th April 2015 Nepal earthquake (7.8Mw), 26 April 2015 (6.7Mw) and 12th May 2015 (7.3Mw) Nepal earthquakes. Significant low TEC values were also observed before 13–14 days prior to first two earthquake events. Overall the study has revealed that low TEC followed by couple of high TEC values correlate well with the seismic events in Himalayan region.
... As an example of quantitative UAB, changes in the locomotive activities of mice before large earthquakes were reported by Yokoi et al. [20] and Li et al. [21]. Grant et al. [22] recently revealed, by the use of motion-triggered cameras, that wild animal activity in various species declined prior to the Contamana earthquake, with a magnitude (M) of 7.0. However, these reports were case studies for single large earthquakes. ...
... To verify this hypothesis, observations of daily cow milk yields and ULF radiation from the same period in the same region need to be performed. There is an interesting report that discussed possible mechanisms for UAB prior to earthquakes based on observational data [22]. This study shows that the amount of wildlife (i.e., mammals and birds) captured by motion-triggered cameras in a national park decreased prior to the Contamana earthquake (M = 7.0) in the Peruvian Andes, and the lag time between these behavioral changes and the earthquake was coincident with the VLF propagation anomalies. ...
Previous studies have provided quantitative data regarding unusual animal behavior prior to earthquakes; however, few studies include long-term, observational data. Our previous study revealed that the milk yields of dairy cows decreased prior to an extremely large earthquake. To clarify whether the milk yields decrease prior to earthquakes, we examined the relationship between earthquakes of various magnitudes and daily milk yields. The observation period was one year. In the results, cross-correlation analyses revealed a significant negative correlation between earthquake occurrence and milk yields approximately three weeks beforehand. Approximately a week and a half beforehand, a positive correlation was revealed, and the correlation gradually receded to zero as the day of the earthquake approached. Future studies that use data from a longer observation period are needed because this study only considered ten earthquakes and therefore does not have strong statistical power. Additionally, we compared the milk yields with the subionospheric very low frequency/low frequency (VLF/LF) propagation data indicating ionospheric perturbations. The results showed that anomalies of VLF/LF propagation data emerged prior to all of the earthquakes following decreases in milk yields; the milk yields decreased earlier than propagation anomalies. We mention how ultralow frequency magnetic fields are a stimulus that could reduce milk yields. This study suggests that dairy cow milk yields decrease prior to earthquakes, and that they might respond to stimuli emerging earlier than ionospheric perturbations.
... For most of the events, mostly high TEC values were observed during 7-8 days before the earthquakes, whereas one event was found for which low pre-seismic TEC was observed. Freund [32] and Grant et al. [40] postulated that a negative value of anomalous TEC level may indicate sudden flow of electron due to ionisation in near-ground atmosphere. ...
This review discusses some research on two earthquake precursors—soil radon concentration, a geochemical precursor; and Total Electron Content (TEC), an atmospheric one, studied in some earthquake-prone regions in the world. These two precursors were chosen because their generation mechanisms are interlinked. The selected soil radon studies focused on establishing anomalous radon fluctuations as a robust precursory signal for medium to high-magnitude earthquakes, including determination and removal of meteorological effects from soil radon time series, and identification of genuine pre-seismic anomalies. For the seismic precursory property of TEC, studies on detecting seismogenic TEC fluctuations and their formation mechanisms were discussed.
... Beberapa rangkuman tentang prilaku ganjil binatang yang biasa timbul pra-bencana misalnya, ikan-ikan lele berlompatan keluar dari air, lebah-lebah secara misterius mengosongkan sarangnya, ayam-ayam betina berhenti bertelur tanpa alasan yang jelas, tikus-tikus kebingungan sampai-sampai bisa ditangkap dengan tangan, ikan-ikan yang berasal dari laut dalam ditemukan di permukaan laut, ular-ular di dalam tanah mendadak keluar ke permukaan, meski saat musim dingin (Winchester, 2006: 263 (Grant, Raulin, & Freund, 2015;Yamauchi et al., 2014;Cao, & Huang, 2018). Bahkan, penelitian sampai dilakukan pada tingkat laboratorium telah dilakukan untuk membuktikan pengaruh faktor fisika kimia dalam lingkungan sebelum gempa bumi terhadap perubahan perilaku pada hewan, seperti yang dilakukan oleh Liu et al., (2014 ...
Bencana alam ( Natural disaster ) adalah suatu peristiwa yang terbagi menjadi dua berdasarkan pemicunya. Pertama, bencara yang terjadi secara alami dapat berupa letusan gunung berapi, banjir, tsunami, tanah longsor dan lainnya.Kedua, bencana alam yang terjadi tidak secara alami contohn kelaparan, yaitu kekurangan bahan pangan dalam jumlah besar yang disebabkan oleh kombinasi faktor manusia dan alam. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perubahan tingkah laku hewan dalam mendeteksi datangnya bencana alam secara alami. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah narrative review yaitu dengan mengumpulkan sejumlah literatur berdasarkan kata kunci yang telah ditetapkan, meringkas dan mensintesis beberapa artikel dari google scholar kemudian diintegrasikan ke dalam bentuk tulisan. Beberapa hewan diyakini dapat mendengar suara dan merasakan getaran yang terkait dengan pergeseran lapisan di dalam bumi. Hewan juga dianggap memiliki kemampuan yang lebih baik untuk mendeteksi perubahan elektromagnetik di alam semesta daripada manusia. Oleh karena itu, banyak orang yang percaya bahwa perubahan perilaku hewan memiliki hubungan yang kuat dengan bencana alam yang akan datang. Berbagai jenis hewan telah digunakan sebagai biosensor dan diidentifikasi melalui perilaku mereka terhadap rangsangan yang mereka terima seperti burung yang terbang tak beraturan, anjing dan kucing yang melolong dan merasa gelisah pada bencana gempa bumi hebat yang melanda Turkey pada 6 Februari 2023. Sejak dahulu kala, perilaku hewan yang tidak biasa telah dianggap sebagai tanda akan terjadinya bencana alam. Kepercayaan tersebut terus diwariskan kepada masyarakat atau biasa disebut dengan kearifan lokal. Kata kunci: bencana alam, mendeteksi, perubahan elektromagnetik, perilaku hewan, biosensor
... Therefore, given the importance of this issue, extensive research in various scientific fields has been focused on identifying these precursors. The most common prediction methods based on identifying precursors include monitoring the ground displacement along a fault using GNSS 1 [8,46,52] or InSAR 2 data [28,32,44], earthquake prediction using geophysical techniques such as determining probable location or, sometimes, probable time of earthquake occurrence through foreshocks [26,31,33], earthquake prediction by assessing variations in the speed of seismic waves of S and P prior to the earthquake [35,36], forecasting earthquakes by calculation thermal anomalies on the earth's surface using thermal images obtained by remote sensors in fault-exposed areas [39,41], monitoring changes in ionospheric precursors through analyzing data gathered by remote sensing DEMETER satellites [30] or GNSS [38,51], earthquake prediction through the monitoring of earthquake clouds along the fault range with the aid of satellite imagery [16,43], earthquake prediction using geochemical and hydrological precursors like monitoring variations in concentration of ions or dissolved gases including radon, helium, etc. [22,42], earthquake prediction through studying changes in animal activities and behaviors [14] and earthquake prediction by measuring electromagnetic changes in the ULF 3 range [19,20]. ...
The main factors contributing to the occurrence of an earthquake are under the crust. Also; due to the lack of access to direct measurements of these factors and the parameters involved in the occurrence of an earthquake, the main goal of researchers is to study the earthquake occurrence through its precursors. Currently, monitoring and identifying some of these precursors are made possible by geomatics technologies. It is an undeniable fact that the behavioral variations of the precursors don’t follow a common pattern in all earthquakes. Also, the variations of the precursors show peculiar behaviors in each region. So, it seems infeasible to provide an accurate prediction based on the analysis of the behavioral variations of a single precursor. Unlike previous studies, this study doesn’t have a single-parametrical orientation toward an earthquake prediction process. Accordingly, this study aims to extract the trend of variations in crustal deformation anomalies and thermal anomalies before the earthquake to analyze them through an integrated process based on data mining methods. As a result, the tests of earthquake predictions for 17 cases have shown that the proposed method can make a reliable prediction of the probable time and magnitude range of oblique-thrust earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5.5. Moreover, the proposed method has been able to accurately estimate the occurrence of the 26th November 2019 Albania earthquake (Mw = 6.4) as well as 21th September 2019 Albania earthquake (Mw = 5.6) before they happen.
... Studies on the physical mechanism of ionosphere perturbation due to earthquakes have given significant information on atmosphere--ionosphere variability before earthquakes based on observation, experimental and theoretical data (Akyol et al. 2020;Grant et al. 2015;Kumar and Singh 2012;Pulinets 2004;Shuang-Gen et al. 2004). Promising studies that uses global positioning system (GPS) data have reported pre-earthquake irregularity in total electron content (TEC) in the ionosphere within the vicinity of earthquake preparation zone (Dogan et al. 2011;Heki and Enomoto 2013;Jhuang et al. 2010;Jin et al. 2014;Liu et al. 2004;Mansilla 2019;Priyadarshi et al. 2011;Pulinets et al. 2005;Shah and Jin 2015). ...
Changes in strain (Linear and triangular) rate and Ionosphere Total Electron Content (TEC) before Mw 7.9 2018 Alaska
Earthquake are investigated. Ten years of global positioning system (GPS) time series solutions were used for strain estimation in the region before the occurrence of the earthquake using the Haversine formula and triangulation method. Linear
strain values suggest an anomaly in strain variation trend near the epicenter. Additionally, daily TEC variations for 30 days
before the earthquake occurred were monitored and analysed. Analysis suggests TEC depletion on December 26 2017, and
January 16 2018, respectively. TEC values from 60 GPS stations data were interpolated to study the spatial variations of
TEC anomaly. Hourly TEC data derived from GPS stations on December 26 2017, and January 16 2018, suggest low TEC
zone concentration near to the earthquake epicenter during 1 to 4 UTC. Spatial distribution of TEC values in 2-Dimension
corresponding to anomaly time at 60 GPS stations in the vicinity of study area suggests lowest TEC values at stations that
lie closer to the epicenter. The study suggests Lithosphere-Ionosphere coupling before Mw 7.9 2018 Alaska Earthquake
and recommends developing a TEC-Strain Monitoring System for further validation of the work and for the better study of
earthquake precursors based on TEC-Strain anomalies.
... These may pull or decrease the TEC concentration initially, followed by an abrupt increase in the ionosphere TEC (Pulinets 2004;Pulinets et al. 2002). The gaseous emanation and crystal defect (positive hole theory) in the earth's crust are identified as one of the most critical earthquake precursors (Freund et al. 2009;Freund 2011;Grant et al. 2015). These gases ionize the near-surface, leading to the change in the atmosphere's electrical properties, which creates a large vertical electric field and manifests the ionosphere TEC. ...
Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from 118 Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) were used to study total electron content (TEC) variations in the earth's ionosphere before the occurrence of Mw 7.7 Cuba earthquake on January 28, 2020. The spatial distribution of ionosphere TEC anomaly in 2 dimensions with distance from the observation stations is studied in the present analysis. TEC time series from the nearest observation station suggests abnormalities low TEC value was observed at CORS, close to the earthquake epicenter. The epicenter lies approximately 90 km from the center of the anomaly zone (low TEC). The anomaly zone's size was about 725 km in radius. The study suggests the possibility of observing TEC anomaly zone in the ionosphere a few days before an earthquake occurs. The study indicated that TEC anomaly zone developed in the ionosphere may have resulted from stress development on the crustal rocks supporting the presence of LAIC mechanism. The analysis also showed that TEC might change due to other unknown sources apart from the seismic origin. Overall, the study suggests TEC monitoring with a dense CORS network may help identify the anomaly zone spatially in 2 dimensions before an earthquake occurs. The anomaly zone may coincide with the earthquake epicenter, and hence, the techniques may be essential for studying the TEC-earthquake epicenter relationship.
... These precursory fluctuations are mapped and examined retrospectively with foremost earthquakes (Li et al., 2016, Jilani et al., 2017. By perceiving behavioral variations in animals, the prediction of the earthquake is also deliberated (Grant et al., 2015). At Yanachaga National Park, Peru, the animal behavioral examination was achieved by using motion-triggered cameras. ...
Prediction of an extreme seismic event in any area has been a perplexing study area. Baluchistan is the largest province of Pakistan, and the whole province lies in a seismically active region which makes it vulnerable to earthquakes. In the current study, different aspects of seismology of Baluchistan, for instance, frequency content, recurrence time, Gutenberg-Richter law, seismic energy release, seismic rate changes, and other seismic features, are calculated. Furthermore, the Maximum Relevance and Minimum Redundancy (mRMR) principle is used to select the appropriate features. In order to predict the occurrence of future earthquakes, a Support Vector Regressor (SVR) and Hybrid Neural Network (HNN) centered prediction model (SVR-HNN) is formulated. An Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO) algorithm is incorporated in HNN for weight optimization at each layer. After testing the stability performance, the proposed model with systematically selected seismic features is applied for earthquake prediction along the Chaman fault in Baluchistan province. The accuracy of the prediction model is evaluated by computing prominent performance measures. The sensitivity and specificity for the earthquake prediction for the studied region were found to be 68.3% and 87.4%, respectively, with an accuracy of 81.2%. The accuracy of the prediction model is evaluated by computing prominent performance measures. The results of the study revealed a close relationship with the existing historical earthquake data as per the evaluation indices and can be considered acceptable. The proposed methodology can be equally useful for other areas for the prediction of a scenario earthquake. The results of the proposed methodology can help the decision and policymakers to plan cities and houses such that the damage can be minimized. Moreover, the decision-makers and future researchers can propose proper disaster mitigation strategies for averting the damage of future earthquakes.
... Grant et al. (2011) took the seventh factor to be the major one. Fidani et al. (2014) and Grant et al. (2015) considered local air ionization (belonging to the fifth factor) caused by stress-activated positive holes is one of the main reasons, especially for cows. Rikitake (1998) first related the epicentral distance, D, of an anomalous animal activity before an earthquake to its magnitude, M in the following relationship: ...
... But, can birds be sensitive to earthquakes as Yosef (1997) has suggested? It is well know that birds can use the Sun, stars, and magnetic field to orient themselves; young and adult turtles as well as salmon navigate using the geomagnetic field as a reference system (Lohmann, 2007;Lohmann and Lohmann, 2019); glass eels would have a magnetic compass linked to the tidal cycle (Cresci et al., 2017); cellular autofluorescence is sensitive to the magnetic field (Ikeya and Woodward, 2021); etc. Although, such research could also shed new light on the long-standing claim that animals are sensitive to earthquake precursors (see for example Ikeya, 2004;Freund and Stolc, 2013;Yamauchi et al., 2014;Grant et al., 2015 and therein references) however, this topic is highly debated to the point of overt skepticism even within the most open and convinced scientific community to investigate precursors. In their famous paper, Woith et al. (2018) analysed more than 700 reports of claimed correlation between earthquakes and "anomalies" in animal behaviour. ...
We aim at giving a short review of the seismo-associated phenomena detected on ground that in recent years have been investigated as possible earthquake precursors. The paper comes together with a companion article–published on this same volume by Picozza et al., 2021–devoted to summarize the space-based observation of earthquake–precursors by satellites missions. In the present work, we give an overview of the observations carried out on ground in order to identify earthquake precursors by distinguishing them from the large background constituted by both natural non-seismic and artificial sources. We start discussing the measurements of mechanical parameters and variations of geochemical fluids detected before earthquakes; then we review thermal and atmospheric oscillations; finally, observations of electromagnetic and ionospheric parameters possibly related to the occurrence of impeding earthquakes are discussed. In order to introduce a so large field of research, we focus only on some main case studies and statistical analyses together with the main hypotheses and models proposed in literature in order to explain the observed phenomenology.
... These precursory changes were analysed and identified for major earthquakes retrospectively (Jilani et al. 2017;Li et al. 2016). The prediction of earthquake is also studied by studying animal behavioural changes (Grant et al. 2015). The study of animal behaviour is conducted in Yanachaga National Park, Peru, using motion-triggered cameras. ...
Earthquake is one of the devastating and frightening natural disasters that caused big casualties in a small duration. Earthquake caused lots of damage in just a few minutes and the casualties of the earthquake increase as the population increase which also contribute to higher amount of property and buildings. Therefore, by developing model capable of detecting the recurrence behaviour of earthquake helps in predicting earthquake as well as minimizing the casualties caused by the earthquake. In this report, a few of artificial intelligence algorithms such as support vector machine, boosted decision tree regression, random forest and multivariate adaptive regression spline will be used in the development of best model algorithm in earthquake prediction. Meteorological data are collected from several stations in Terengganu and processed for normalization and the data will be analysed using algorithms and its performance will be evaluated. Terengganu is situated on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia and is bordered on the north-west and south-west by Kelantan and Pahang. Terengganu's east side is bordered by the South China Sea. Terengganu is located within the vicinity of the South China Sea, which is possible to be affected by the Marina Trench Earthquake. The subduction zone of Manila Trench is capable of producing a high magnitude of earthquake activity that can create a deadliest tsunami disaster. Therefore, Terengganu is studied for the investigation of artificial intelligence in earthquake prediction. The model algorithms are then analysed to measure its sensitivity and accuracy in prediction and consistency of the result.
... Dengan kata lain, studi bidang ini belum didukung oleh eksplanasi ilmiah yang memadai. Hasil penelitian internasional menginformasikan adanya hubungan dan peran hewan dengan bencana yang ditunjukkan melalui perubahan perilaku hewan sebelum gempa bumi seperti Burung, Anjing dan Kucing (Grant, Raulin, & Freund, 2015;Yamauchi et al., 2014;Cao, & Huang, 2018). Bahkan, penelitian sampai dilakukan pada tingkat laboratorium telah dilakukan untuk membuktikan pengaruh faktor fisika kimia dalam lingkungan sebelum gempa bumi terhadap perubahan perilaku hewan, seperti yang dilakukan oleh Liu et al., (2014 Getaran yang dirasakan di permukaan saat gempa bumi didahului oleh sejumlah perubahan fisika kimia, salah satunya adalah perubahan medan magnet (Wahyudi, 2011). ...
Animal behavior is a response to external environmental conditions through detection by certain senses. Changes in physical factors in the environment before the earthquake (magnetic field anomaly) also influence the expression of specific behavioral changes in birds, namely the flight activity. However, scientific explanation of changes in orientation or direction of flight before the earthquake was not yet available. This article aims to describe the mechanism of bird's biological response to changes in the magnetic field before the earthquake. This study is a literature review. The results of theoretical synthesis explain that birds use magnetic receptors and light receptors that recognize changes in the magnetic field before the earthquake followed by an increase in the amount of intracellular calcium ions. Abnormal amounts of calcium stimulate the formation of more ATP which activates the function of actin and myosin, therefore muscle cells experience a bathmotrope effect expressed in the form of changes in flight direction.
... However, it is possible to calculate the probability of an earthquake that may occur in the future based on the scientific data (Nature 1999). Therefore, several studies have been carried out for earthquake prediction, including the analysis of precursory phenomenon like animal behavior analysis (Grant et al. 2015), soil radon and thoron concentrations analysis (Jaishi et al. 2014), and the research about historic earthquake records (Asencio-Cortés et al. 2015;Morales-Esteban et al. 2013;Reyes et al. 2013). ...
The earthquake magnitude prediction is a task of utmost difficulty that has been addressed by using many different strategies, with no further transformation thus far. This work evaluates the Haskell based deterministic dendritic cell algorithm (hDCA)’s accuracy when used to predict earthquake magnitude in Sichuan and surroundings. First, eight seismicity indicators have been retrieved from the literature and used as input for the algorithms, and they are calculated from the earthquake catalog of the Sichuan and surroundings by well-known geophysical theory, named Gutenberg-Richter inverse power-law, and characteristic earthquake magnitude distribution and also conclusions drawn by recent related studies. Then, the hDCA is used to predict earthquakes with magnitude larger than 4.5 in the next month. In this work, the proposed method has been compared to the well-known machine learning algorithms, such as Dendritic Cell Algorithm (DCA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) and Neural Dynamic Classification (NDC). Overall our method yields the promising results in terms of all qualify parameters evaluated.
... Therefore, considering the significance of this issue, extensive researches from various scientific fields have been concentrated on identifying these precursors. The most common predictive methods based on identifying precursors include monitoring the ground displacement along a fault using ground-based tools such as global positioning systems (GPS) (Yue and Lay 2011; Wang et al. 2013;Calais et al. 2003) or radar interferometry on radar images of satellite sensors ( Tomás et al. 2014;Moro et al. 2017;Graham 1974;Bamler and Hartl 1998;Gabriel et al. 1989;Massonnet and Feigl 1998), earthquake prediction using geophysical techniques such as determining probable location or, sometimes, probable time of earthquake occurrence through foreshocks (Ogata and Katsura 2012;Moreno et al. 2010;Lippiello et al. 2012), earthquake prediction by means of assessing variations in velocity of seismic waves of S and P prior to earthquake (Pio Lucente et al. 2010;Peacock et al. 1988), earthquake prediction through monitoring thermal anomalies on the earth surface using thermal images obtained by remote sensors in fault-exposed areas ( Pulinets et al. 2006;Saraf et al. 2009; Saradjian and Akhoondzadeh 2011), monitoring changes in ionospheric precursors analyzing the collected data from remote sensing DEMETER satellites ( Molchanov et al. 2006;Akhoondza- deh et al. 2010) or ground-based systems ( Yao et al. 2012;Pulinets and Davidenko 2014), earthquake prediction through monitoring earthquake clouds along fault range with the aid of satellite imagery ( Thomas et al. 2015;Guo and Wang 2008), earthquake prediction using geochemical and hydrological precursors like monitoring variations in concentration of ions or dissolved gases including radon, helium, etc. (Thomas 1988;Ingebritsen and Manga 2014), earthquake prediction through studying changes in animal behaviors ( Grant et al. 2015) and earthquake prediction by measuring electromagnetic changes in ULF range (Hay- akawa 2013;Han et al. 2011). ...
Is it possible to predict location, time and magnitude of earthquakes through identifying their precursors based on remotely sensed data? Earthquakes are usually preceded by unusual natural incidents that are considered as earthquake precursors. With the recent advances in remote sensing techniques which have made it possible monitoring the earth’s surface with different sensors, scientists are now able to better study earthquake precursors. Thus, the present study aims at developing the algorithm of classic PS-InSAR processing for obtaining crustal deformation values at the epicenter of earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.0 on the Richter scale and with oblique thrust faulting and then after calculating temperature values using remotely sensed thermal imagery at the epicenter of same earthquakes; thermal and crustal deformation anomalies were calculated using data mining techniques before earthquake occurrence. In the next stage, taking the correlation between thermal anomalies and crustal deformation anomalies at the epicenter of the study earthquakes into account, an integrated technique was proposed to predict probable magnitude and time of oblique thrust earthquakes occurrence over the earthquake-prone areas. Eventually, the validity of the proposed algorithm was evaluated for an earthquake with a different focal mechanism. The analysis results of the thermal anomalies and crustal deformation anomalies at the epicenter of April 16, 2016, Japan-Kumamoto earthquake of magnitude 7.0 with strike-slip faulting, showed completely different trends than the suggested patterns by the proposed algorithm.
... Another example of behavioral changes among animals, in this case wild animals in a tropical rainforest setting in a National Park in the Peruvian Andes, has been reported on the basis of objectively collected and evaluated photographic records [45]. Starting 20 d before a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, a 10 camera cluster, operating day and night with motion-triggered infrared flashes, recorded a decrease in the activity of mammals and ground-living birds with near-zero animals seen during the last seven days prior to the main shock. ...
An ever-growing number of electromagnetic (EM) emission sources elicits health concerns, particularly stemming from the ubiquitous low to extremely low frequency fields from power lines and appliances, and the radiofrequency fields emitted from telecommunication devices. In this article we review the state of knowledge regarding possible impacts of electromagnetic fields on melatonin secretion and on sleep structure and the electroencephalogram of humans. Most of the studies on the effects of melatonin on humans have been conducted in the presence of EM fields, focusing on the effects of occupational or residential exposures. While some of the earlier studies indicated that EM fields may have a suppressive effect on melatonin, the results cannot be generalized because of the large variability in exposure conditions and other factors that may influence melatonin. For instance, exposure to radiofrequency EM fields on sleep architecture show little or no effect. However, a number of studies show that pulsating radiofrequency electromagnetic fields, such as those emitted from cellular phones, can alter brain physiology, increasing the electroencephalogram power in selective bands when administered immediately prior to or during sleep. Additional research is necessary that would include older populations and evaluate the interactions of EM fields in different frequency ranges to examine their effects on sleep in humans.
... These telluric currents were flowing laterally across about of the island of Taiwan, which measures * 500 km in the North-South direction. Example #3: We could also reference a paper on the animal response in the Peruvian Andes, where an M = 7 earthquake occurred at a depth of 140 km about 370 km lateral distance from our observation site (Grant et al. 2015). If the animal behavior was triggered by positive holes stress-activated in the hypocentral volume, the charge carriers must have traveled these distances. ...
This study statistically examines the role of atmospheric blocking as a precursor of major seismic events. Atmospheric blocking archive and earthquake databases for the Middle East region are compiled for 2000–2013. Correlations between atmospheric blocking events and seismicity are examined based on defined seismo-climatic index (SCI) based on variations of earthquake frequency and magnitude before and after blocking events. Limiting the SCI index to values > 6, 16 out of 26 major earthquakes (M > 6), i.e. 62%, are shown to have occurred within 14 days after blocking events over their respective epicentral regions. The correlation between blocking events and subsequent seismicity falls into a range of 0.694–0.803. Additional blocking-related atmospheric anomalies such as cyclogenesis, cloud coverage, and anomalous rainfall prior to major earthquakes can be understood as processes that take place in the Earth’s crust and at the ground-to-air interface as a result of the stress activation of positive hole charge carriers at depth, in the hypocentral rock volume, and their rapid migration to the Earth’s surface. Hence, atmospheric blocking events in a seismically active region may be categorized as an earthquake precursory phenomenon.
... Numerous study has been carried out to understand the ionosphere TEC variation prior to earthquakes (Calais and Minster, 1998, Liu et al., 2001, Liu et al., 2002, Liu et al., 2004, Pulinets, 2004, Pulinets et al., 2005, Hegai et al., 2006, Pulinets, 2009, Dogan et al., 2011, Liu et al., 2011, Ouzounov et al., 2011, Kumar and Singh, 2012, Yao et al., 2012, Grant et al., 2015, Shah and Jin, 2015 which indicates TEC as one of the important parameter to be considered in precursor study. It was also shown that the electron density may decreased upto 51% from its typical incentive between 12:00-17:00 LT, that was observed 3 to 4 days prior to event as shown in case of e Chi-Chi earthquake (Liu et al., 2001). ...
... Precursor methods typically deal with anomalies in physical phenomena that might give accurate warning of a forthcoming earthquake. Some possible precursors used for earthquake forecasting include: strange animal behaviour (Grant et al., 2015), dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis (Martinelli and Ferrari, 1991) providing physical bases for various phenomena; changes in the ratio of the primary pressure wave passing through rock to the velocity of the secondary or shear wave (Vp/Vs) (Hammond, 1973); electromagnetic anomalies (Johnston, 2002); Corralito's anomaly (Hough, 2010); Freund physics (Freund, 2000); Cl − , SO 4 2− , and groundwater stable isotopic ratios (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) (Skelton et al., 2014); and radon anomalies (Barkat et al., 2017). This work will focus on early earthquake prediction using radon anomalies explored through intelligent computational methodologies. ...
... Depending upon the process of ionisation, the electrons either deplete or increase as these are initially pulled by positive ions, thereby leading to first decrease and then increase due to continuous flow of electrons. This theory has been described in detail by a number of publications dealing with hypothesis and experimental results (Grant et al. 2015;Freund 2011;Freund et al. 2009). In addition to this mechanical process, active geochemical processes can also contribute. ...
Himalaya, one of the global biodiversity hotspots, is the abode of a variety of flora and fauna. The Himalayan ecosystems have immense ecological, socioeconomic, and aesthetic significance as they provide a wide range of ecosystem services. The northwest Himalaya (NWH), covering three states of India viz., Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir, starts from the foothills of Shivaliks in the south and extends to the greater Himalaya in the north. This region is also the source of some of the major rivers of India. With the increase in population, the NWH ecosystems have been under threat due to deforestation, loss of biodiversity, expansion of agriculture and settlement, overexploitation of natural resources, habitat loss and fragmentation, poaching, mining, construction of roads and large dams, and unplanned tourism. The Himalaya being young and geotectonically active, remains inherently unstable, fragile, and prone to natural disasters. Climate change is also likely to impact the Himalayan cryosphere drastically. Recognizing the importance of the Himalaya, a National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem, one of the eight missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) of Govt. of India, to conserve biodiversity, forest cover and other ecological values in the Himalayan region has been taken up.
Spaceborne remote sensing with its ability to provide synoptic and repetitive coverage has emerged as a powerful tool for assessment and monitoring of the Himalayan resources and phenomena. Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Dehradun has taken up a number of studies in the fields of geology, water resources, forestry, agriculture, urban settlement, etc., over the last decade. The book summarises the work carried out in different disciplines, illustrated with tables and figures and a host of relevant references. It is hoped that the book serves as an excellent reference of immense value to the students, researchers, professors, scientists, professionals, and decision makers working in the NWH region.
... Depending upon the process of ionisation, the electrons either deplete or increase as these are initially pulled by positive ions, thereby leading to first decrease and then increase due to continuous flow of electrons. This theory has been described in detail by a number of publications dealing with hypothesis and experimental results (Grant et al. 2015;Freund 2011;Freund et al. 2009). In addition to this mechanical process, active geochemical processes can also contribute. ...
Understanding earthquake precursory phenomena based on ionosphere perturbation is a fairly new field in geoscience today and has achieved promising success. Scientists across the globe are now trying to learn insight about the physical and chemical processes involved in the upper atmosphere and beyond during the earthquake preparatory period. One of such studies is based on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observations. Global Positioning System (GPS) is currently one of the most popular global navigation satellite positioning systems widely available for such society application. GPS has led to technical revolutions in the field of applications like navigation as well as in upper atmospheric/ionospheric studies. GPS signals from the satellites encountered the ionosphere before it is captured by the receiver on the ground. In this process, the free electrons in the ionosphere affect the propagation of the signals by changing their velocity and direction of travel. A number of recent investigations have suggested that satellites and ground-based facilities like that of GNSS may detect earthquake precursors a few hours or days prior to the main event due to ionospheric perturbations induced by initiation of earthquake process. The typical phenomenological features of ionospheric precursors of strong earthquakes are summarised by Pulinets et al. (2003). The parameter of ionosphere that produces most of the effects on radio signals is the total electron content (TEC). The TEC is defined by the integral of electron density in a 1 metre square column along the signal transmission path. The ionosphere causes GPS signal delays to be proportional to the TEC along the path from the GNSS satellite to a receiver. The TEC measurements obtained from dual frequency GNSS receivers are one of the most important parameters to characterise Earth’s ionosphere. The changes in the Earth’s ionosphere can be used to derive the information about an impending earthquake. Therefore, it is very important to monitor the TEC variation due to tectonic deformation prior to an earthquake and its validation in real-world situation.
... These precursory changes are studied and mapped retrospectively with major earthquakes [4,5]. Earthquake prediction is also studied through observing behavioral changes in animals [16]. The animal behavioral study is carried out using motion-triggered cameras at Yanachaga National Park, Peru. ...
Earthquake prediction has been a challenging research area, where a future occurrence of the devastating catastrophe is predicted. In this work, sixty seismic features are computed through employing seismological concepts, such as Gutenberg-Richter law, seismic rate changes, foreshock frequency, seismic energy release, total recurrence time. Further, Maximum Relevance and Minimum Redundancy (mRMR) criteria is applied to extract the relevant features. A Support Vector Regressor (SVR) and Hybrid Neural Network (HNN) based classification system is built to obtain the earthquake predictions. HNN is a step wise combination of three different Neural Networks, supported by Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO), to offer weight optimization at each layer. The newly computed seismic features in combination with SVR-HNN prediction system is applied on Hindukush, Chile and Southern California regions. The obtained numerical results show improved prediction performance for all the considered regions, compared to previous prediction studies.
... 39 2.10 Schéma du guide d'ondes Terre-Ionosphère, montrant la propagation des ondes ELV / VLF générées par des décharges d'éclairs via de multiples réflexionsà travers les limites du guide d'ondes. . . . . . . 42 2.11 Représentation de l'instant d'arrivée du paquet d'ondes vs la fréquence pour un tweek typique, montrantégalement la fréquence de coupure (fc), l'instant du début de tweek (t1)à la fréquence (f1) [Inan et al., 2007b, Lauben et al., 1999, Peter and Inan, 2007, ainsi que l'effet des rayons cosmiques gamma [Inan et al., 2007a] ou encore les répercussions de l'activité sismique et volcanique [Grant et al., 2015]. ...
We studied Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SIDs) occurred on June 2012 and proposed a new classification of these SIDs based on its durations. We also studied the effect of the total solar eclipse of March 20, 2015 on the terrestrial ionosphere D-region and gave an estimation of the changes in its electron density profile and height. Finally, we studied tweek atmospherics on broadband VLF data, recorded by ground VLF-receiver at Tunis/Tunisia, to estimate night-time ionospheric D region electron density and distance of lightning sources to our receiver.
... [15][16][17][18] Most importantly, the basic hypothesis of near surface layer ionization has been demonstrated by experimental setup and instrumental observation in different parts of the world. [19][20][21] The second theory on ionospheric precursors is related to the ion-molecular reactions after ionization by radon in the nearground layer of the atmosphere, and water molecule attachment to the finally formed ions that eventually make the ground layer of atmosphere rich in latent ions marked by the neutral clusters. Pulinets 10 gave a detailed description of the process of ion cluster formation in the near-ground layer in the earthquake preparation zone. ...
Electron content in the ionosphere is very sensitive to temporary disturbances of the Earth’s magnetosphere (geomagnetic storm), solar flares, and seismic activities. The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based total electron content (TEC) measurement has emerged as an important technique for computations of earthquake precursor signals. We examined the pre-earthquake signatures for eight strong magnitude (Mw > 6: 6.1 to 7.8) earthquakes with the aid of GNSS-based TEC measurement in the tectonically active Himalayan region using International GNSS Service (IGS) stations as well as local GNSS-based continuously operating reference stations (CORS). The results indicate very significant ionospheric anomalies in the vertical total electron content (vTEC) a few days before the main shock for all of the events. Geomagnetic activities were also studied during the TEC observation window to ascertain their role in ionospheric perturbations. It was also inferred that TEC variation due to low magnitude events could also be monitored if the epicenter lies closer to the GNSS or IGS station. Therefore, the study has confirmed TEC anomalies before major Himalayan earthquakes, thereby making it imperative to set up a much denser network of IGS/CORS for real-time data analysis and forewarning.
... The authors note the need for additional studies of the relation between milk yield levels in other EQs. Grant et al. [8] performed an image analysis of wild animals in Yanachaga National Park, Peru, based on the observation of their behavior 23 days before the 2011 Contamana, Peru, earthquake of magnitude of 7.0. The authors observed a reduction in the movements of the animals 10 days 4 before the EQ. ...
This article presents a state-of-the-art review of different methods, signal and image processing techniques, and statistical analyses used for prediction and assessment of natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods. Application of the big data paradigm for the aforementioned natural disasters is also discussed. The research for increasingly more sophisticated computational models will continue to achieve more accurate predictions for various natural disasters.
... That is, animals seem to be sensitive to or react to the initial phase of seismogenic ULF radiation, and they get accustomed to the ULF radiation at later times even with more enhanced intensity one week before the EQ. A recent work for a major EQ (M = 7.2) by Grant et al. [35] has indicated that the abnormal animal behavior based on camera images of animals happens at the same time when they observed ionospheric perturbations with the use of subionospheric VLF propagation, and they have suggested that the positive-hole carriers during EQ preparation process [36] might be an important sensory mechanism of animals. ...
A statistical study on the basis of one-year data of 2014 has been performed in order to find whether abnormal animal behavior is related with seismic activity and also whether the ULF (Ultra Low Frequency) electromagnetic radiation might be a possible sensory mechanism of abnormal animal behavior. Abnormal animal behavior has been studied with the use of digitally recorded milk yield of cows at Ibaraki Prefecture Livestock Station, and the ULF magnetic field changes have been studied with the data at a magnetic observatory of Kakioka. As the result of correlation analyses, clear responses are observed for both the milk yield of cows and ULF magnetic field changes (both ULF radiation (ULF emissions from the lithosphere) and ULF depression (as an indicator of lower ionospheric perturbations)) for most powerful and not distant earthquakes (EQs) with magnitude > 6, that is, the milk yield of cows is found to exhibit a conspicuous depletion about 17-18 days before an EQ, though the correlation coefficient is not so big. Another important objective in this paper is to identify that ULF radiation is the main agent of abnormal behavior so that we have compared the temporal evolutions of milk yield of cows, ULF radiation and ULF depression for three major EQs. As a result, it is found that ULF radiation happens, at least, during the periods of abnormal depletion of milk yield of cows.
... Some scientists concluded that earthquake cannot be predicted (Geller et al. 1997), while many others have suggested that it is a predictable phenomenon (Brehm and Braile 1998;Ellsworth et al. 1999;Kirschvink 2000;Knopoff 2000). According to them, several procedures can be carried out for earthquake prediction that includes the analysis of precursory phenomenon like variations of electric fields, magnetic fields and total electron content of ionosphere (Pulinets and Ouzounov 2011), animal behavior analysis (Grant et al. 2015) and historic earthquake records (Panakkat and Adeli 2007), that are well maintained in the form of catalogs. ...
Earthquake magnitude prediction for Hindukush region has been carried out in this research using the temporal sequence of historic seismic activities in combination with the machine learning classifiers. Prediction has been made on the basis of mathematically calculated eight seismic indicators using the earthquake catalog of the region. These parameters are based on the well-known geophysical facts of Gutenberg–Richter’s inverse law, distribution of characteristic earthquake magnitudes and seismic quiescence. In this research, four machine learning techniques including pattern recognition neural network, recurrent neural network, random forest and linear programming boost ensemble classifier are separately applied to model relationships between calculated seismic parameters and future earthquake occurrences. The problem is formulated as a binary classification task and predictions are made for earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 5.5 ( 5.5), for the duration of 1 month. Furthermore, the analysis of earthquake prediction results is carried out for every machine learning classifier in terms of sensitivity, specificity, true and false predictive values. Accuracy is another performance measure considered for analyzing the results. Earthquake magnitude prediction for the Hindukush using these aforementioned techniques show significant and encouraging results, thus constituting a step forward toward the final robust prediction mechanism which is not available so far.
... VLF anomaly observations provided by SAVNET are also important to complement space observations of energetic astrophysical phenomena like Magnetars and Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRB) (Tanaka et al., 2010;Raulin et al., 2014), especially during extremely intense events that saturate on-board X-ray and γ-ray sensors, or during events occulted by the Earth. More recently, SAVNET studies have shown that the VLF technique is also a very promising tool to detect disturbances originating from below the ionosphere, associated to subsequent seismic activity (Hayakawa et al., 2011;Samanes et al., 2015;Grant et al., 2015). If these initial results are confirmed, they could provide important precursory information about the 15-day timescale before large earthquake events. ...
The present work is the second of a three-part review of space weather in Latin America, specifically observing its evolution in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico). This work comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts.
Interactions among components of the Earth System are well exemplified by the behavior of animals around the time of earthquakes, and the abundant published data and long-standing oral tradition on animal reactions to seismicity have become hard to ignore, these are important facts that provide opportunities for cross-disciplinary research. A compilation of reports on abnormal animal behavior in relation to earthquakes in Colombia covering the period 1610-2019 was produced by a rigorous two-stage search of cases using online resources. The reports localities follow the spatial distribution of epicenters and the main tectonic features of the Colombian territory. Both, the first and second-stage searches revealed that, for 41 destructive earthquakes, there are 138 reports of animals reacting to seismicity, most of which fall into phylum Chordata, class Mammalia, order Carnivora, family Canidae, genus Canis, species C. familiaris. The first-stage search indicates that coseismic reactions of the species C. familairis, B. taurus, and E. caballus dominate over preseismic and postseismic manifestations, in contrast to results from the news media-based second-stage search, which indicates dominance of preseismic behavior. It is concluded that in this region animals have reacted persistently to earthquakes and that folklore and oral tradition deserve some degree of credibility in this phenomenon.
Em um contexto de mobilização pelo realinhamento sustentável do capitalismo, as ciências são convocadas para a cena pública para elucidar as transformações ecológicas e climáticas que ameaçam não apenas o modo de vida moderno-ocidental como também a continuidade das condições de vida dos seres vivos, dentre eles, os humanos. As discussões sobre o Antropoceno, contudo, tendem a apagar não somente a história colonial como também a potência dos saberes dos povos não ocidentais sobre o meio ambiente. A antropologia contribui, na discussão sobre sustentabilidade, com problematizações sobre hierarquias e desigualdades sociais, raciais, econômicas e políticas, como também sobre a hierarquia de saberes ordenada pelas ciências modernas que impedem o pleno reconhecimento de práticas de conhecimentos e pensamento éticos ecológicos dos povos tradicionais. A antropologia se posiciona em uma relação constitutiva com os conhecimentos que, ao longo da história colonial, foram desqualificados como crenças e representações e, assim, busca se tornar capaz de aprender com esses saberes subjugados e aliar-se a eles. Nesse sentido, o objetivo deste artigo é abordar, a partir da antropologia, a questão da objetividade dos conhecimentos tradicionais sobre meio ambiente, a partir de catástrofes e mudanças climáticas elucidadas por tecnologias de visualização tradicionais.
Global Positioning System (GPS) Continuous Operating Reference Stations (CORS) data analysis shows that the ionosphere's electron density variability is linked to the deformation and stress accumulation in the Earth's crust. Anomalies in ionosphere total electron content (TEC) variability before 2021 M6.4 Sonitpur, Assam earthquake were detected using L1 and L2 GPS frequencies that showed three distinct abnormalities on April 3, 9, 10, 2021. Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) of TEC decreases in the CORS that lies away from the earthquake epicenter, indicating the possibilities of a positive relationship between TEC variability and earthquake epicenter. TEC concentration also decreases towards the epicenter within the earthquake preparation zone (EPZ). It is also observed that the Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) of TEC decreases linearly near the EPZ. The study demonstrates the possibilities of determining the TEC anomalous zone in the ionosphere that coincides with the EPZ in the crustal rocks. The research indicated the possibilities of magnitude estimation of an impending earthquake based on the TEC anomalous zone in the ionosphere using closely spaced dense CORS network data.
Estudos relacionados a alterações comportamentais de diversas espécies perante a terremotos e tsunamis vêm sendo documentados. É certo que os animais detectam sinais que seres humanos não percebem, assim, apresentam reações adversas anteriores a esses desastres. Este artigo coletou dados de estudos já publicados para analisar e comparar tais comportamentos anormais das diferentes espécies registradas. As principais Ordens relatadas foram: Primates, Anura, Rodentia, Perissodactyla, Cetartiodactyla, Carnivora, Galliformes, Cingulata e Proboscida. Mais pesquisas precisam ser realizadas para elucidar o efeito dos sinais elétricos emitidos pelos abalos sísmicos na fisiologia dos animais.
Earthquakes are the most unanticipated and catastrophic natural disasters. Due to its complex nature, it is challenging to predict earthquakes early. But the prediction of the time of occurrence, magnitude, and epicentral location of future earthquakes has been the subject of study in recent years. The use of the machine learning process has recently started in the field of Earthquake Engineering. It offers advantages in handling complex problems and facilitates decision making which may evolve shortly. In this study, Bangladesh has been selected for the prediction of earthquakes. The earthquake catalog has been obtained from USGS for the period from January 1974 to July 2020; using a cut-off magnitude of 2.5. Among different Machine Learning Algorithms, these data set has been used in total five algorithms to run the model. Eight evaluation criteria were used to test the validity and accuracy of the model. Consequently, among the five algorithms, Logistic Regression and SVM-RBF showed better results in comparison to the study carried out previously using Machine Learning Algorithms. The study takes an endeavor to predict earthquakes using Machine Learning algorithms for the very first time with the earthquake dataset of Bangladesh.
The catastrophic magnitude of life and monetary losses associated with earthquakes deserve serious attention and mitigation measures. However, in addition to the pre-earthquake and post-earthquake alleviation actions, the scientific community indeed needs to reconsider the possibilities of earthquake predictions using non-seismic precursors. A significant number of studies in the recent decades have reported several possible earthquake precursors such as anomalies in electric field, magnetic field, gas/aerosol emissions, ionospheric signals, ground water level, land surface temperature, surface deformations, animal behaviour, thermal infrared signals, atmospheric gravity waves, and lightning. Such substantial number of scientific articles and reported anomalous signals cannot be overlooked without a thoughtful appraisal. Here, we provide an opinion on the way forward for earthquake prediction in terms of challenges and possibilities while using non-seismic precursors. A general point of concern is the widely varying arrival times and the amplitudes of the anomalies, putting a question mark on their universal applicability as earthquake markers. However, a unifying concept which does not only define the physical basis of either all or most of these anomalies but which also streamlines their characterisation procedure must be the focus of future earthquake precursory research. Advancements in developing the adaptable instrumentation for in-situ observations of the claimed non-seismic precursors must be the next step and the satellite observations should not be taken as a replacement for field-based research. We support the need to standardise the precursor detection techniques and to employ a global-scale monitoring system for making any possible earthquake predictions reliable.
Total Electron Content (TEC) in the ionosphere changes before an earthquake and is one of the important parameters in the study of earthquake precursors. Monitoring of TEC in real-time may prove an excellent input for the effective precursory study of earthquakes. In the present study, a Monitoring system was developed to integrate TEC, geomagnetic storm, and solar flare data and to carry out a TEC anomaly study before earthquakes occurred. The system integrates data from publicly available sources, carries out statistical analysis in the background to detect an anomaly and sends an email notification for the anomaly detected. The system auto-updates at 9.00 AM IST daily to check for any missing data in the past 30 days. The system enables observations of the ionosphere conditions before an Earthquake and may help in understanding earthquake precursors and space weather conditions. The system has been demonstrated studying the recent cluster of earthquakes that occurred during July-August 2020 in Tibet, where a series of anomalies were observed during 15, 20, 23, 25 & 28 2020; 02 & 05 July 2020; 06, 08, 10, 15, 25 & 27 July 2020, and August 16, 2020, before the earthquakes. Therefore, the study presents TEC monitoring on a daily basis and its integration with dependent variables in a single platform for effective research on earthquake precursor detection.
Earthquakes are a devastating natural hazard
that can wipe out thousands of lives and cause economic loss to
the geographical location. Seismic stations continuously monitor
and gather data regarding the vibration and movement of the
ground at a particular site. The collected data is processed by
the model to forecast the occurrence of earthquakes in the
Caribbean region. This paper presents a Parallel Support
Vector Regression (PSVR) model to forecast earthquakes using
Graphic Processing Unit (GPU). In the implementation of a
PSVR using GPU, Computing Unified Device Architecture
(CUDA) framework is utilized, which is a famous programming
structure for General Purpose Computing on GPU. This newly
computed PSVR model shows considerable improvement in
training speed and achieved an accuracy of 92% when
compared with Scikit Learn and LibSVM library on Central
Processing Unit (CPU) and GPU.
A total of 160 earthquakes in North East Indian region and surroundings were analysed for earthquake precursor detection using GPS based Total Electron Content (TEC) estimation in the Ionosphere. TEC is very sensitive to short-term disturbances of a geomagnetic storm, solar flares and seismic activities. In the present study, TEC in the ionosphere was measured using dual-frequency signals from five GPS-based continuously operating reference stations/system (CORS) installed in North Eastern states of India. The abnormality in TEC variations was observed by constructing boundary limits using statistical method, the values crossing the limits being the anomaly. The results for Mw > 5 earthquakes such as Mw 5.5 Kohima Earthquake (July 14, 2012), Mw 6.8 Myanmar earthquake (November 11, 2012) and Mw 5.6 Kokrajhar Earthquake (June 28, 2015) covering North East India suggest TEC anomaly 10 days, 12 days and 13 days prior to the events. Analysis of 160 earthquakes suggests that the rate of success in TEC based anomaly detection for earthquake precursor increases with increase in Magnitude of the earthquakes. In average Mw < 5 earthquakes could be 46.50% detectable, Mw 5–6 could be 81.56% detectable and Mw > 6 earthquakes could be fully detectable. Rate of success with reference to CORS were also computed and was found in the order of Cherrapunjee, Meghalaya > Madankamdev, Assam > Mohanpur, Agartala > Mawtawar, Meghalaya > Khanapara, Assam. Therefore present investigations confirmed TEC anomalies prior to earthquakes and present the expected rate of success, making it imperative to set up an automated system for real-time monitoring of TEC for Earthquake precursor detection and appropriate forewarning in near future.
In this study an earthquake predictor system is proposed by combining seismic indicators along with Genetic Programming (GP) and AdaBoost (GP-AdaBoost) based ensemble method. Seismic indicators are computed through a novel methodology in which, the indicators are computed to obtain maximum information regarding seismic state of the region. The computed seismic indicators are used with GP-AdaBoost algorithm to develop an earthquake predictor system (EP-GPBoost). The setup has been arranged to provide predictions for earthquake of magnitude 5.0 and above, fifteen days prior to the earthquake. The regions of Hindukush, Chile and Southern California are considered for experimentation. The EP-GPBoost has produced noticeable improvement in earthquake prediction due to collaboration of strong searching and boosting capabilities of GP and AdaBoost, respectively. The earthquake predictor system shows enhanced results in terms of accuracy, precision and Mathews Correlation Coefficient for the three considered regions in comparison to contemporary results.
In public perception, abnormal animal behavior is widely assumed to be a potential earthquake precursor, in strong contrast to the viewpoint in natural sciences. Proponents of earthquake prediction via animals claim that animals feel and react abnormally to small changes in environmental and physico-chemical parameters related to the earthquake preparation process. In seismology, however, observational evidence for changes of physical parameters before earthquakes is very weak. In this study, we reviewed 180 publications regarding abnormal animal behavior before earthquakes and analyze and discuss them with respect to (1) magnitude– distance relations, (2) foreshock activity, and (3) the quality and length of the published observations. More than 700 records of claimed animal precursors related to 160 earthquakes are reviewed with unusual behavior of more than 130 species. The precursor time ranges from months to seconds prior to the earthquakes, and the distances from a few to hundreds of kilometers. However, only 14 time series were published, whereas all other records are single observations. The time series are often short (the longest is 1 yr), or only small excerpts of the full data set are shown. The probability density of foreshocks and the occurrence of animal precursors are strikingly similar, suggesting that at least parts of the reported animal precursors are in fact related to foreshocks. Another major difficulty for a systematic and statistical analysis is the high diversity of data, which are often only anecdotal and retrospective. The study clearly demonstrates strong weaknesses or even deficits in many of the published reports on possible abnormal animal behavior. To improve the research on precursors, we suggest a scheme of yes and no questions to be assessed to ensure the quality of such claims.
Simple Summary
The paper investigates whether young children may waken before earthquakes through a cause other than foreshocks. It concludes there is statistical evidence for this, but the mechanism best supported is anxiety produced by Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) electromagnetic waves.
Abstract
Nearly 1,100 young students living in Japan at a range of distances up to 500 km from the 1995 Kobe M7 earthquake were interviewed. A statistically significant abnormal rate of early wakening before the earthquake was found, having exponential decrease with distance and a half value approaching 100 km, but decreasing much slower than from a point source such as an epicentre; instead originating from an extended area of more than 100 km in diameter. Because an improbably high amount of variance is explained, this effect is unlikely to be simply psychological and must reflect another mechanism—perhaps Ultra-Low Frequency (ULF) electromagnetic waves creating anxiety—but probably not 222Rn excess. Other work reviewed suggests these conclusions may be valid for animals in general, not just children, but would be very difficult to apply for practical earthquake prediction.
Hundreds of millions of people live in seismically active regions around the globe. They are influenced by active tectonic factors on not only days of strong earthquakes, but every day as well. In this chapter, the author analyzes the influence of the geoenvironment on the health of people, living in a seismically active region, the Altai Republic, at long-, medium-, and short-term temporal scales. Correlation analyses of prevalence rates of various nosologies and a set of geological indices demonstrated that there is a long-term influence of terrestrial γ radiation, intrusions, magnetic anomalies, and active faults on the morbidity of some diseases in the adult population. Medium- and short-term medical reactions of the local population on the 2003 Chuya earthquake are studied in the context of its preparation, meteorological and hydrogeological consequences. At a medium-term scale, analysis of time series of incidence rates of various nosologies in the adult, teenager, and child populations demonstrated that incidence dynamics of the total adult morbidity and some nosologies is marked by a gradual rise in 2000-2001, a sharp spike in 2002-2003, and a gradual decay in 2004- 2005. This may testify that the earthquake preparation has begun to influence the health of local people about 2-3 years ahead of the main shock. At a short-term scale, a superimposed epoch analysis of time series of emergency calls demonstrated that there was an increase in calls before the earthquake and during aftershocks. The author supposes that different seismically derived agents influence human health at different temporal scales. At a medium-term scale, changes of a dynamic stress field results in the increase of fracturing along fault zones leading to the rise of the radon emanation and changes in the hydrogeological situation. At a short-term scale, the earthquake preparation causes atmospheric events triggering geomagnetic fluctuations. There were differences in both the medium- and short-term dynamics of morbidity concerning different nosologies. This may testify that different systems of the human organism are marked by distinct sensitivities to an earthquake as a stress factor.
Earthquakes occur when tectonic stresses build up deep in the Earth before catastrophic rupture. During the build-up of stress, processes that occur in the crustal rocks lead to the activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers. These charge carriers are able to flow out of the stressed rock volume into surrounding rocks. Such outflow constitutes an electric current, which generates electromagnetic (EM) signals. If the outflow occurs in bursts, it will lead to short EM pulses. If the outflow is continuous, the currents may fluctuate, generating EM emissions over a wide frequency range. Only ultralow and extremely low frequency (ULF/ELF) waves travel through rock and can reach the Earth surface. The outflowing charge carriers are (i) positively charged and (ii) highly oxidizing. When they arrive at the Earth surface from below, they build up microscopic electric fields, strong enough to field-ionize air molecules. As a result, the air above the epicentral region of an impending major earthquake often becomes laden with positive airborne ions. Medical research has long shown that positive airborne ions cause changes in stress hormone levels in animals and humans. In addition to the ULF/ELF emissions, positive airborne ions can cause unusual reactions among animals. When the charge carriers flow into water, they oxidize water to hydrogen peroxide. This, plus oxidation of organic compounds, can cause behavioral changes among aquatic animals.
Two consecutive earthquakes temporary changed a zooplankton community in a high-mountain Lake Krn (altitude 1383 m a.s.l.). It was dominated by the eurytherm copepod, Cyclops vicious, until 1998, when the first earthquake hit the lake (EMS = 5.6). After the earthquake, the population of C. vicious collapsed and the thermophilic cladoceran, Ceriodaphnia quadrangula, took over. After the second earthquake in 2004 (EMS = 4.0), C. vicious became untraceable. In 2008, few copepods reappeared and by 2010 they became the sole dominant again. Only Secchi-disc depth showed a statistically significant increase over time, while P,, and temperature showed an increasing trend, yet the relationship was insignificant. To compare multi-parameter properties of the water column, the studied period was divided into Period 1 (before the first earthquake). Period 2 (between earthquakes) and Period 3 (after the second earthquake). A Hotteling T-2 test confirmed a statistically significant difference between Periods 1 and 2 & 3 (P < 0.01), but not between Periods 2 and 3 (P > 0.1). During simple laboratory experiment, specimens of C. vicious were covered with a thin layer of sediment, to mimic the earthquake's effect on their survival. A hypothesis was that the timing of both earthquakes had been crucial for decimation of C. vicious population as they re-suspended sediment with hibernating copepodites. As these became subsequently buried they were deprived of a re-activation signal and exposed prolonged anoxic conditions there. C. quadrangula temporary filled the void left by the copepod, which needed 6 years to regain its dominance.
From November 1988 until the end of January 1989 the Saguenay region (Province of Qudbec, Canada), experienced sixty-seven earthquakes ( M > 0). A foreshock, magnitude 4.8 mbLg , occurred on 23 November at 4:12 am (all times in this paper are EST). Two days later at 6:46 pm on 25 November, an unexpected 6.5 mbLg (5.9 mb ) shock was recorded by a network of portable seismometers, distributed near the epicenter by the Geological Survey of Canada after the foreshock. (Both this and the foreshock occurred during the hours of darkness.) The main shock caused strong shaking near the epicenter and was felt over much of northeastern North America. By 11 December, fifty-seven shocks had been registered. Then, after a seismic silence of fourteen days, the activity resumed on 25 December, peaking around 19 January and ending the 23rd of that month with a total of ten more shocks. From that date, another halt lasted until 18 April 1989. The main shock was peculiar due to its 29 km depth in the lower crust of the “stable” pre-Cambrian craton, its low aftershock activity (eighty-four earthquakes over six months), its high Lg -wave energy, and its large aftershock epicentral area (Saguenay = 5.9 mb , 25 × 40 km; Miramichi = 5.7 mb , 6 × 6 km). The Saguenay event occurred within the “Jacques Cartier” tectonic block, 17 km south of the southern margin of the Saguenay Graben, which bounds the Jacques-Cartier Bloc on the north side, the southeast border being delimited by the St. Lawrence Rift system (Du Berger et al. , 1991).
Following the same spatial and temporal pattern of the seismic activity, thirty-eight unusual luminosities were seen by some Saguenay and Lac St-Jean inhabitants, mainly during the foreshock, main shock, and …
Previous published work after the Kobe and İzmit earthquakes (1995
and 1999, respectively) demonstrated some reported meteorological and
animal behaviour precursors were valid. Predictions were freshly tested
for the Christchurch earthquake (M = 7.1, 4 September 2010). An internet
survey with nearly 400 valid replies showed relative numbers of reports
in precursor categories the day before the quake, were statistically
significantly different from those in the preceding three days (excess
meteorological events and animal behaviour). The day before the quake,
there was also altered relative precursor class occurrence within 56 km
compared with further away. Both these confirmed the earlier published
work. Owners were woken up by unique pet behaviour 12 times as often in
the hour before the quake compared with other hours immediately before
(statistically highly significant). Lost and Found pet reports were
double normal the week before, and 4.5 times normal both the day before
the quake, and 9 days before. (Results were again statistically
significant). Unique animal behaviour before the quake was often
repeated before the numerous aftershocks. These pet owners claimed an
approximate 80% prediction reliability. However, a preliminary telephone
survey suggested that animals showing any precursor response are a
minority. Some precursors seem real, but usefulness seemed mostly
restricted to 7 cases where owners were in, or near, a place of safety
through disruptive pet behaviour, and one in which owners were diverted
by a pet from being struck by falling fixtures. For a later 22 February
2011 M = 6.3 quake no reports of escape through warning by pets were
recorded, which raises serious questions whether such prediction is
practically useful, because lives claimed saved are extremely low
compared with fatalities. It is shown the lost-pet statistics dates,
correspond to ionospheric anomalies recorded using the GPS satellite
system and geomagnetic disturbance data, and claimed as precursory. The
latter more objective measurements may be the way of the future, but
improved statistical treatment should include observations over longer
periods of time without earthquakes.
Short-term earthquake predictions with an advance warning of several hours or days are currently not possible due to both incomplete understanding of the complex tectonic processes and inadequate observations. Abnormal animal behaviors before earthquakes have been reported previously, but create problems in monitoring and reliability. The situation is different with red wood ants (RWA; Formica rufa-group (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)). They have stationary mounds on tectonically active, gas-bearing fault systems. These faults may be potential earthquake areas. For three years (2009-2012), two red wood ant mounds (Formica rufa-group), located at the seismically active Neuwied Basin (Eifel, Germany), have been monitored 24/7 by high-resolution cameras with both a color and an infrared sensor. Early results show that ants have a well-identifiable standard daily routine. Correlation with local seismic events suggests changes in the ants' behavior hours before the earthquake: the nocturnal rest phase and daily activity are suppressed, and standard daily routine does not resume until the next day. At present, an automated image evaluation routine is being applied to the more than 45,000 hours of video streams. Based on this automated approach, a statistical analysis of the ants' behavior will be carried out. In addition, other parameters (climate, geotectonic and biological), which may influence behavior, will be included in the analysis.
Most destructive earthquakes nucleate at between 5–7 km and about 35–40 km depth. Before earthquakes, rocks are subjected to increasing stress. Not every stress increase leads to rupture. To understand pre-earthquake phenomena we note that igneous and high-grade metamorphic rocks contain defects which, upon stressing, release defect electrons in the oxygen anion sublattice, known as positive holes. These charge carriers are highly mobile, able to flow out of stressed rocks into surrounding unstressed rocks. They form electric currents, which emit electromagnetic radiation, sometimes in pulses, sometimes sustained. The arrival of positive holes at the ground-air interface can lead to air ionization, often exclusively positive. Ionized air rising upward can lead to cloud condensation. The upward flow of positive ions can lead to instabilities in the mesosphere, to mesospheric lightning, to changes in the Total Electron Content (TEC) at the lower edge of the ionosphere, and electric field turbulences. Advances in deciphering the earthquake process can only be achieved in a broadly multidisciplinary spirit.
ULF electromagnetic emissions associated with a large earthquake
occurred at Biak Island, Indonesia at 5h 59m UT on February 17, 1996
(magnitude (Mw) = 8.2 and depth = 20 km from USGS catalog), have been
investigated on the basis of ULF magnetic observations at two stations,
Biak and Darwin in Australia (about 1,200 km apart). Though a simple
analysis of magnetic field intensity (horizontal and vertical magnetic
field components) at both stations was found to be closely correlated
with geomagnetic ΣKp activity, a detailed analysis of the
difference of H and Z components at the two stations, the polarization
analysis (Z/H) and fractal analysis (frequency spectrum slope) at these
two stations has yielded that the ULF emissions (in the frequency range
from 5 mHz to 30 mHz) about 1.5-1.0 months before the quake are
likely to be a precursory signature of the quake with its intensity on
the order of 0.2-0.3 nT.
1] Empirical evidence of the preearthquake ionospheric anomalies (PEIAs) is reported by statistically investigating the relationship between variations of the plasma frequency at the ionospheric F2 peak foF2 and 184 earthquakes with magnitude M ! 5.0 during 1994– 1999 in the Taiwan area. The PEIA, defined as the abnormal decrease more than about 25% in the ionospheric foF2 during the afternoon period, 1200–1800 LT, significantly occurs within 5 days before the earthquakes. Moreover, the odds of earthquakes with PEIA increase with the earthquake magnitude but decrease with the distance from the epicenter to the ionosonde station. These results indicate that the PEIA is energy related.
Among all earthquake precursors, those related to electromagneticeffects are the most puzzling, and the many possible sources ofnoise are cause of lively controversies. A large number oflaboratory experiments clearly suggest that micro-fracturingis associated with the appearance of spontaneous charge production(electrification) and transient Electric or ElectroMagnetic (EM)Emission. Many electric and magnetic pre-seismic and co-seismiceffects have been reported in the past as well as ionosphericperturbations. The aim of this paper is to review some of theseionospheric perturbations performed in the former Soviet Union.The importance of sporadic E-layer formation is underlined.Statistical studies with the available observations are done.At the end, a physical model of lithosphere-ionosphere couplingis presented in order to explain the observations. This modeltakes into account the following effects at the Earth's surface:electric charge generation, emanation of radioactive gas,temperature variation, and surface vibration. It is shown thatthese effects can trigger sporadic E-layer formation.
Stress accumulated in rocks in tectonically active areas may manifest itself as electromagnetic radiation emission and temperature variation through a process of energy transformation. Land surface temperature (LST) changes before an impending earthquake can be detected with thermal infrared (TIR) sensors such as NOAA-AVHRR, Terra/Aqua-MODIS, etc. TIR anomalies produced by 10 recent earthquakes in Iran during the period of Jun 2002–Jun 2006 in the tectonically active belt have been studied using pre- and post-earthquake NOAA-AVHRR datasets. Data analysis revealed a transient TIR rise in LST ranging 2–13°C in and around epicentral areas. The thermal anomalies started developing about 1–10 days prior to the main event depending upon the magnitude and focal depth, and disappeared after the main shock. In the case of moderate earthquakes (<6 magnitude) a dual thermal peak instead of the single rise has been observed. This may lead us to understand that perhaps pre-event sporadic release of energy from stressed rocks leads to a reduction in magnitude of the main shock. This TIR temperature increment prior to an impending earthquake can be attributed to degassing from rocks under stress or to p-hole activation in the stressed rock volume and their further recombination at the rock–air interface. A precise correlation of LST maps of Bam and Zarand with InSAR-generated deformation maps also provides evidence that the thermal anomaly is a ground-related phenomenon, not an atmospheric one.
Pre-earthquake signals have been widely reported, including perturbations in the ionosphere. These precursory signals, though highly diverse, may be caused by just one underlying physical process: activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers in rocks that are subjected to ever increasing levels of stress. The charge carriers are defect electrons associated with O− in a matrix of O2−. Known as positive holes or pholes h, they flow out of the stressed rock into the unstressed rock volume, traveling meters in the laboratory, probably kilometers in the field. At the rock–air interface they cause: (i) positive surface potential, (ii) field-ionization of air molecules, (iii) corona discharges. The rate of formation of airborne ions can exceed 109 cm−2 s−1. Massive air ionization prior to major earthquakes increases the electrical conductivity in the air column and may cause ionospheric perturbations, earthquake lights, and unusual animal behavior as well as infrared emission.
Prior to major earthquakes many changes in the environment have been documented. Though often subtle and fleeting, these changes are noticeable at the land surface, in water, in the air, and in the ionosphere. Key to understanding these diverse pre-earthquake phenomena has been the discovery that, when tectonic stresses build up in the Earth's crust, highly mobile electronic charge carriers are activated. These charge carriers are defect electrons on the oxygen anion sublattice of silicate minerals, known as positive holes, chemically equivalent to O- in a matrix of O2-. They are remarkable inasmuch as they can flow out of the stressed rock volume and spread into the surrounding unstressed rocks. Travelling fast and far the positive holes cause a range of follow-on reactions when they arrive at the Earth's surface, where they cause air ionization, injecting massive amounts of primarily positive air ions into the lower atmosphere. When they arrive at the rock-water interface, they act as •O radicals, oxidizing water to hydrogen peroxide. Other reactions at the rock-water interface include the oxidation or partial oxidation of dissolved organic compounds, leading to changes of their fluorescence spectra. Some compounds thus formed may be irritants or toxins to certain species of animals. Common toads, Bufo bufo, were observed to exhibit a highly unusual behavior prior to a M6.3 earthquake that hit L'Aquila, Italy, on April 06, 2009: a few days before the seismic event the toads suddenly disappeared from their breeding site in a small lake about 75 km from the epicenter and did not return until after the aftershock series. In this paper we discuss potential changes in groundwater chemistry prior to seismic events and their possible effects on animals.
A phenomenological systems approach for identifying potential precursors in
multiple signals of different types for the same local seismically active
region is proposed based on the assumption that a large earthquake may be
preceded by a system reconfiguration (preparation) at different time and space
scales. A nonstationarity factor introduced within the framework of
flicker-noise spectroscopy, a statistical physics approach to the analysis of
time series, is used as the dimensionless criterion for detecting qualitative
(precursory) changes within relatively short time intervals in arbitrary
signals. Nonstationarity factors for chlorine-ion concentration variations in
the underground water of two boreholes on the Kamchatka peninsula and
geacoustic emissions in a deep borehole within the same seismic zone are
studied together in the time frame around a large earthquake on October 8,
2001. It is shown that nonstationarity factor spikes (potential precursors)
take place in the interval from 70 to 50 days before the earthquake for the
hydrogeochemical data and at 29 and 6 days in advance for the geoacoustic data.
Analysis of the 2007 M 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake near San José California showed that magnetic pulsations were present in large numbers and with significant amplitudes during the 2 week period leading up the event. These pulsations were 1–30 s in duration, had unusual polarities (many with only positive or only negative polarities versus both polarities), and were different than other pulsations observed over 2 years of data in that the pulse sequence was sustained over a 2 week period prior to the quake, and then disappeared shortly after the quake. A search for the underlying physics process that might explain these pulses was was undertaken, and one theory (Freund, 2002) demonstrated that charge carriers were released when various types of rocks were stressed in a laboratory environment. It was also significant that the observed charge carrier generation was transient, and resulted in pulsating current patterns. In an attempt to determine if this phenomenon occurred outside of the laboratory environment, the authors scaled up the physics experiment from a relatively small rock sample in a dry laboratory setting, to a large 7 metric tonne boulder comprised of Yosemite granite. This boulder was located in a natural, humid (above ground) setting at Bass Lake, Ca. The boulder was instrumented with two Zonge Engineering, Model ANT4 induction type magnetometers, two Trifield Air Ion Counters, a surface charge detector, a geophone, a Bruker Model EM27 Fourier Transform Infra Red (FTIR) spectrometer with Sterling cycle cooler, and various temperature sensors. The boulder was stressed over about 8 h using expanding concrete (Bustartm), until it fractured into three major pieces. The recorded data showed surface charge build up, magnetic pulsations, impulsive air conductivity changes, and acoustical cues starting about 5 h before the boulder actually broke. These magnetic and air conductivity pulse signatures resembled both the laboratory rock stressing results and the 30 October 2007 M 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake field data.
The second part of this paper examined other California earthquakes, prior to the Alum Rock earthquake, to see if magnetic pulsations were also present prior to those events. A search for field examples of medium earthquakes was performed to identify earthquakes where functioning magnetometers were present within 20 km, the expected detection range of the magnetometers. Two earthquakes identified in the search included the 12 August 1998 M 5.1 San Juan Bautista (Hollister Ca.) earthquake and the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield Ca. earthquake. Both of these data sets were recorded using EMI Corp. Model BF4 induction magnetometers, installed in equipment owned and operated by UC Berkeley. Unfortunately, no air conductivity or IR data were available for these earthquake examples. This new analysis of old data used the raw time series data (40 samples per s), and examined the data for short duration pulsations that exceeded the normal background noise levels at each site, similar to the technique used at Alum Rock. Analysis of Hollister magnetometer, positioned 2 km from the epicenter, showed a significant increase in magnetic pulsations above quiescient threshold levels several weeks prior, and especially 2 days prior to the quake. The pattern of positive and negative pulsations observed at Hollister, were similar, but not identical to Alum Rock in that the pattern of pulsations were interspersed with Pc 1 pulsation trains, and did not start 2 weeks prior to the quake, but rather 2 days prior. The Parkfield data (magnetometer positioned 19 km from the epicenter) showed much smaller pre-earthquake pulsations, but the area had significantly higher conductivity (which attenuates the signals). More interesting was the fact that significant pulsations occurred between the aftershock sequences of quakes as the crustal stress patterns were migrating.
Comparing laboratory, field experiments with a boulder, and earthquake events, striking similarities were noted in magnetic pulsations and air conductivity changes, as well as IR signals (where instrumented). More earthquake samples, taken with the appropriate detectors and within 10–15 km proximity to large (> M 5) earthquakes, are still needed to provide more evidence to understand the variability between earthquakes and various electromagnetic signals detected prior to large earthquakes.
Studying animal movement and distribution is of critical importance to addressing environmental challenges including invasive species, infectious diseases, climate and land-use change. Motion sensitive camera traps offer a visual sensor to record the presence of a broad range of species providing location -specific information on movement and behavior. Modern digital camera traps that record video present new analytical opportunities, but also new data management challenges. This paper describes our experience with a terrestrial animal monitoring system at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Our camera network captured the spatio-temporal dynamics of terrestrial bird and mammal activity at the site - data relevant to immediate science questions, and long-term conservation issues. We believe that the experience gained and lessons learned during our year long deployment and testing of the camera traps as well as the developed solutions are applicable to broader sensor network applications and are valuable for the advancement of the sensor network research. We suggest that the continued development of these hardware, software, and analytical tools, in concert, offer an exciting sensor-network solution to monitoring of animal populations which could realistically scale over larger areas and time spans.
In this paper we examine pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies by the total electron content (TEC) derived from a ground-based receiver of the Global Positioning System (GPS). A 15-day running median of the TEC and the associated inter-quartile range (IQR) are utilized as a reference for identifying abnormal signals during all of the 20M≥6.0 earthquakes in the Taiwan area from September 1999 to December 2002. Results show that the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies appear during 18:00–22:00LT (LT=UT+8h) within 5 days prior to 16 of the 20M≥6.0 earthquakes. This success rate of 80% (=16/20%) suggests that the GPS TEC is useful to register pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies appearing before large earthquakes.
Key words. Ionosphere (ionospheric disturbances; ionosphere-atmosphere interactions)
This article examines retrospective public-supplied precursor reports statistically, and confirms published hypotheses that some alleged precursors within 100km and within a day prior to the large 1995 Kobe and 1999 Izmit earthquakes, may be valid. The confirmations are mostly at the p<0.001 level of significance. Most significant were alleged meteorological and geophysical precursors, and less often, animal reports. The chi-squared test used, for the first time eliminates the distorting effects of psychological factors on the reports. However it also shows that correct reports are diluted with about the same number which are merely wishful thinking, and obtaining more reliable data would be logistically difficult. Some support is found for another published hypothesis in which other precursors occurred within the ten days prior to the earthquake.
A superimposed epoch analysis has been undertaken, in order to find the correlation of the ionospheric perturbations with seismic activity. We take the wave path from the Japanese LF transmitter (frequency=40 kHz) and an observing station of Kochi (wave path length of 770 km), and a much longer period (of five years) than before, is considered. This subionospheric LF propagation can be called "an integrated measurement" in the sense that any earthquakes in the LF sensitive area just around the great-circle path can influence the observed LF signals, so that we define the "effective magnitude" (Meff) by integrating the total energy from different earthquakes in the sensitive area on a current day and by converting it back into magnitude. A superimposed epoch analysis for the effective magnitude greater than 6.0 has yielded that the ionosphere is definitely disturbed in terms of both amplitude and dispersion, and that these perturbations tend to take place prior to an earthquake. The statistical z-test has also been performed, which has indicated that the amplitude is definitely depleted 2?6 days before the earthquake day and also that the dispersion is very much enhanced during the same period. This statistical study has given strong support to the existence of seismo-ionospheric perturbations for high seismic activity.
Resting and grazing cattle and deer tend to align their body axes in the geomagnetic North-South direction. The mechanism(s) that underlie this behavior remain unknown. Here, we show that extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELFMFs) generated by high-voltage power lines disrupt alignment of the bodies of these animals with the geomagnetic field. Body orientation of cattle and roe deer was random on pastures under or near power lines. Moreover, cattle exposed to various magnetic fields directly beneath or in the vicinity of power lines trending in various magnetic directions exhibited distinct patterns of alignment. The disturbing effect of the ELFMFs on body alignment diminished with the distance from conductors. These findings constitute evidence for magnetic sensation in large mammals as well as evidence of an overt behavioral reaction to weak ELFMFs in vertebrates. The demonstrated reaction to weak ELFMFs implies effects at the cellular and molecular levels.
The book aims to explain the variations of near-Earth plasma observed over seismically active areas several days/hours before strong seismic shocks. It demonstrates how seismo-ionospheric coupling is part of the global electric circuit and shows that the anomalous electric field appearing in active seismic areas is the main carrier of information from the earth into the ionosphere. The discussion of physical mechanisms is based on experimental data. The results can be regarded as the basis for future applications such as short-term earthquake prediction. It proceeds to describe existing complex systems of space-born and ground-based monitoring for electromagnetic and ionospheric precursors of earthquakes, as well as those still under construction. It is an excellent text for courses and contains a wealth of information for those scientists working in the field of natural disaster reduction. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2004. All rights are reserved.
Serotonin syndrome is an underreported complication of pharmacotherapy that has been relatively ignored in the medical literature. We discuss 2 recent cases seen at our institution and 39 cases described in the English-language literature since 1995. We found that patients with serotonin syndrome most often (74.3%) presented within 24 hours of medication initiation, overdose, or change in dosage. The most common presenting symptoms and signs were confusion, agitation, diaphoresis, tachycardia, myoclonus, and hyperreflexia. The prevalences of hypertension, coma/unresponsiveness, seizures, and death were not as prominent in our study as previously reported, perhaps reflecting earlier recognition and intervention. The most common therapeutic intervention was supportive care alone (48% of patients). The use of 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) antagonists such as cyproheptadine, however, has become more common and might reduce the duration of symptoms. Only 1 death occurred, and most patients (57.5%) had complete resolution of their symptoms within 24 hours of presentation. The increased use of serotonergic agents (alone and in combination) across multiple medical disciplines presents the possibility that the prevalence and clinical significance of this condition will rise in the future. Internists will need to be increasingly aware of and prepared for this pharmacologic complication. Prevention, early recognition of the clinical presentation, identification and removal of the offending agents, supportive care, and specific pharmacologic therapy are all important to the successful management of serotonin syndrome.
When tectonic stresses build up in the Earth's crust, highly mobile
electronic charge carriers are activated which cause a range of
follow-on reactions when they arrive at the Earth's surface, primarily
air ionization and at the rock-water interface oxidation of water to
hydrogen peroxide. Anecdotal reports of many earthworms appearing at the
ground surface and behavioural changes in toads before earthquakes
suggests that these animals may be reacting to environmental changes.
This paper reports the results of experimental work, with subterranean
and semi-aquatic invertebrates, simulating these pre-earthquake changes.
The Doppler-shift observation of LF (f = 60 kHz) subionospheric signal
from Saga (Kyushu) (with call sign of JJY) as observed at Chofu (CHF),
has been used to investigate the properties of ionospheric perturbations
possibly associated with earthquakes(EQs). The period of analysis is
seismo-active half a year from January 1, 2009 to June 30, 2009, and six
EQs with magnitude greater than 5.0 (in a range from 5.1 to 5.8, which
took place within the wave sensitive area of the JJY-CHF path) are dealt
with. It is found from the Doppler-shift observation at CHF that the
Doppler shifts are really observed and the components in the frequency
ranges of AGW (atmospheric gravity wave) and AW (acoustic wave) in the
Doppler shifts are clearly enhanced, at least, before each EQ. This
observational fact would lend a strong support to the important role of
atmospheric oscillation channel in the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere
coupling mechanism.
Lunar cycles are commonly observed in the movement, feeding and reproduction of marine fishes and invertebrates. The statistical techniques employed to examine these cycles are unstandardized, complex, and typically lacking in statistical power. Here we suggest a simple, sensitive and robust alternative for the detection of cyclical patterns: periodic regression. We use Monte Carlo simulation to demonstrate that periodic regression is more powerful and less sensitive to missing data than categorical ANOVA (the most commonly employed technique in the literature). Finally, we use real seahorse bycatch data to show that periodic regression is superior to categorical ANOVA for the detection and description of more complex cycles. We encourage researchers to use periodic regression in the analysis of lunar cycles and other cyclical patterns of known period.
To determine whether reports of unusual animal behavior before earthquakes are plausible, we have compared these reports with recent laboratory studies of animal sensory thresholds. Our major conclusion is that some animals are much more capable than humans of perceiving certain kinds of geophysical stimuli which may precede earthquakes. These geophysical stimuli are seismic or acoustic waves at low frequency (below 50Hz), electric field changes, and olfactory stimuli. We find no evidence that magnetic field precursors or precursory high-frequency (above 10kHz) sounds are the cause of unusual animal behavior before earthquakes. Knowledge of animal sensory capabilities may suggest an instrumental strategy for detecting earthquake precursors.-Authors Univ of Texas at Austin, Marine Sci Inst, Galveston, Texas 77550, USA.
Helmet Tributsch, a physical chemist, searched the literature and collected anecdotal reports of abnormal animal behavior during 77 earthquakes, besides the 1976 Friuli earthquake that destroyed his home village in northern Italy. His findings are presented in ''When the Snakes Awake''. In the book he also describes observations of several other phenomena thought to precede earthquakes--fog, lights and sound--and discusses various hypotheses. On the basis of the available circumstantial evidence, he makes a strong argument for the attribution of these phenomena to an increase in the number of electrostatically charged particles in the atmosphere, generated by the tectonically stressed crust.
Earthquakes still occupy first place in the list of natural disasters causing fatal incidences and in loss of human lives and
to minimize these losses researchers are trying to find a reliable precursor. The present study reports the ionospheric
perturbations, if any, observed over a low-latitude station, Delhi (28.6N; 77.2E), prior to occurrences of 11 major
earthquakes (magnitude greater than 6 on Rector Scale) during last couple of years. Initially, foF2 data are analyzed with
upper and lower bound of inter-quartile range (IQR) and the observed anomalous changes related to geomagnetic
disturbances are filtered out. Then the remaining perturbations are analyzed in relation to the occurrence of seismic
activities. The results of the study show some unusual perturbations observed in foF2 values, 1–25 days before and 2–3
days after the main shock of every earthquake indicating a clear seismo-ionospheric link and may be used as earthquake
precursors. The present results are in line with previous observations reported by various researchers.
Space–time anomalies of Earth's emitted radiation in the thermal infrared spectral range (TIR) measured from satellite months to weeks before the occurrence of earthquakes, have been interpreted, by several authors, as pre-seismic signals. The claimed connection of TIR emission with seismic activity has been considered, up to now, with some caution by the scientific community mainly for the insufficiency of the validation data-sets and the scarce importance attached by those authors to other causes (e.g. meteorological) that, rather than seismic activity, could be responsible for the observed TIR signal fluctuations.
The widespread belief that animals can anticipate earthquakes (EQs) is poorly supported by evidence, most of which consists of anecdotal post hoc recollections and relates to a very short period immediately before such events. In this study, a population of reproductively active common toads Bufo bufo were monitored over a period of 29 days, before, during and after the EQ (on day 10) at L'Aquila, Italy, in April 2009. Although our study site is 74 km from L'Aquila, toads showed a dramatic change in behaviour 5 days before the EQ, abandoning spawning and not resuming normal behaviour until some days after the event. It is unclear what environmental stimuli the toads were responding to so far in advance of the EQ, but reduced toad activity coincides with pre-seismic perturbations in the ionosphere, detected by very low frequency (VLF) radio sounding. We compare the response of toads to the EQ with the reported responses to seismic activity of several othe