Hurricane Irene brought heavy rains and flooding from the Carolinas to New England from 26-28 August 2011. As the storm underwent extratropical transition, the heavy rainfall shifted to the left of the track. The heaviest rains were experienced just inland from North Carolina to Maine. The storm made landfall over North Carolina, New Jersey, and as tropical storm over New York City crossing
... [Show full abstract] central Park around 9 AM 28 August 2011. The tropical force winds extended well inland on the west side of the storm. As with many tropical storms, the heaviest rainfall was observed mainly along and west of the storm track. A 100-200 km swath of heavy rain was observed from the Carolinas to northern New England. Area averaged rainfall from gauge and radar data indicated a broad swath of 75 to 250 mm (3 to 10 inches) of rainfall. Individual rain gages showed locally heavy rainfall amount in excess of 325 mm (13 inches). The rainfall in the mountains of western New England and eastern New York produced devastating flooding. Towns were cut-off as roads flooded and bridges were swept away by flood waters. Portions of Vermont and New Yorks experienced the worst flooding in over a century. It is shown herein that the forecasts of the heavy rain, to include the higher end amounts and the general location were well predicted by the NCEP models and ensemble forecasts systems. The surge of high precipitable water along a quasi-north south boundary in the coastal plain and strong winds was good signals for heavy rainfall. The models kept this feature close to where it set up and they did surprisingly well bringing the storm up along the coast. In the 2-4 day time frame the storm track was relatively well predicted.