Global Coffee Production and Land Use Change

Abstract

Global coffee production is growing by about 2% annually, by a mean of 144,400 t yr-1 since 1989. However production is falling in many countries, with a group of 14 countries estimated to be losing production by 48,200 t yr-1. Hence it is likely that new annual coffee production is around 200,000 t yr-1. This figure is not exact because the various official estimates of production differ. It is not clear where this extra coffee is coming from. Sources must either be: technological improvements to increase yields on existing coffee lands (intensification), or conversion to coffee from other crops (switching), or planting on new land (destruction of forest or savannah). An extensive review of published data on coffee land use change suggests that apart from Brazil, where increases in production are driven by technology, in nearly all countries where coffee production is expanding rapidly, it is deforestation that is the primary source of new coffee lands. The yearly increase is likely to be well in excess of 100,000 ha yr-1. The exact figure is impossible to assess because data is inaccurate or lacking. These global changes are currently unaccounted for in the coffee industry's claims of increasing sustainability. It is very likely that the losses of carbon, biodiversity and other ecosystem services caused by global coffee growth are outstripping the various efforts of local and international efforts to improve sustainability of coffee production. In future, to substantiate global coffee's environmental credentials, radically improved understanding and monitoring of its land footprint is urgently needed.

Full text

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Global Coffee Production and Land Use Change
P.S. BAKER
CABI E-UK, Bakeham Lane, Egham, Surrey, TW20 9TY, UK.
SUMMARY
Global coffee production is growing by about 2% annually, by a mean of 144,400 t yr
-1
since 1989. However production is falling in many countries, with a group of 14
countries estimated to be losing production by 48,200 t yr
-1
. Hence it is likely that new
annual coffee production is around 200,000 t yr
-1
. This figure is not exact because the
various official estimates of production differ.
It is not clear where this extra coffee is coming from. Sources must either be:
 technological improvements to increase yields on existing coffee lands
(intensification), or
 conversion to coffee from other crops (switching), or
 planting on new land (destruction of forest or savannah).
An extensive review of published data on coffee land use change suggests that apart
from Brazil, where increases in production are driven by technology, in nearly all
countries where coffee production is expanding rapidly, it is deforestation that is the
primary source of new coffee lands. The yearly increase is likely to be well in excess of
100,000 ha yr
-1
. The exact figure is impossible to assess because data is inaccurate or
lacking.
These global changes are currently unaccounted for in the coffee industry’s claims of
increasing sustainability. It is very likely that the losses of carbon, biodiversity and
other ecosystem services caused by global coffee growth are outstripping the various
efforts of local and international efforts to improve sustainability of coffee production.
In future, to substantiate global coffee’s environmental credentials, radically improved
understanding and monitoring of its land footprint is urgently needed.
INTRODUCTION
Global coffee production is growing by about 2% annually, but it is not clear where this
extra coffee is coming from. Sources must either be:
 technological improvements to increase yields on existing coffee lands
(intensification), or
 conversion to coffee from other crops (switching), or
 planting on new land (destruction of forest or savannah).
The coffee industry has made notable strides to become more sustainable over recent
years and there are strong signs that this process is becoming ‘mainstream’, with at least
20% of farms now certified under at least one certification scheme. There is no evidence
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however that the current global trend towards sustainable coffee is reducing the rate of
deforestation for new plantings of coffee. The study presented here suggests that the
unregulated and poorly accounted for expansion of coffee lands undermines progress to
true sustainability of coffee at the global scale.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Coffee databases consulted include national production figures from the International
Coffee Organization (ICO); Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAOSTAT) and the
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Only FAOSTAT includes a long term database of land area estimates for coffee, since
1961. Reports by USDA’s global agriculture information network (GAIN) provide
coffee area estimates for most major coffee producing countries since about 1998.
Apart from the databases, a wide range of literature was searched for reports of coffee
land use change (LUC), including peer reviewed publications and other grey literature
(CABDirect.org) as well as the Internet, including unpublished reports, blogs and news
items from reputable press sources.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Over the past 25 years, since the collapse of the quota system policed by the ICO,
global coffee production has been increasing by a mean of 144,400 t yr
-1
(Figure 1, left).
LITERATURE CITED
[1]
[2]
[3]
Figure 1. Left: world coffee production of all countries (triangles), ten growth countries (diamonds) and
Brazil+Indonesia+Vietnam (squares) since 1989. Right: global coffee production since 1961 and global
production minus the 10 growth countries.
Of the leading 25 coffee countries over the past 25 years, only 9 (Brazil, Ethiopia,
Honduras, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Nicaragua, Peru and Vietnam) have shown
significant growth according to USDA figures. FAOSTAT data differs in the case of
Malaysia, which suggests production there is falling, and also for China where
production is undoubtedly rising but is not covered by USDA. FAOSTAT
underestimates coffee growth in China, with official data now giving 83,000 t produced
on 93,000 ha in 2013 [1]. ICO data is not considered here because their data cover
neither China nor Malaysia.

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By including an estimation for China [1] and the USDA version of Malaysian
production this study recognizes 10 growth countries with a combined estimate of
195,100 t yr
-1
increase since 1989; Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam account for 72% of
these 10 countries’ increase (Figure 1, left). If the 10 growth countries are subtracted
from global totals, a secular decline for all other countries can be observed from about
the time that the ICO quota system ended (Figure 1, right). 14 countries have shown
significant long term decline by a combined mean of 48,200 t yr
-1
since 1989 (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Combined production in Burundi, Cameroon , Colombia, Costa Rica, Côte d'Ivoire, Dominican
Republic, DRC, Ecuador, El Salvador, Kenya, Madagascar, Mexico, Philippines and Thailand since 1989.
Thus although global production is increasing by nearly 150,000 t yr
-1
,
because so many
countries are declining, there is very likely to be somewhere between 190 and 200,000 t
yr
-1
of new coffee coming onto the market each year. The question is: where is it
coming from?
Accounting for new production
There are two basic possibilities: a) yield increases on existing land, b) new production
from LUC.
Yield increases: of the ten growth countries, only Brazil has convincingly accurate data
on production and area changes. Since 1990 production has been increasing by an
average of 83,700 t yr
-1
whilst coffee area has declined by 10,900 ha yr
-1
, which means
that yield has been increasing by 40.6 kg ha
-1
yr
-1
. Brazil is the only country that has
managed to increase production on a reducing area.
New production: FAOSTAT data suggest that in all countries other than Brazil, new
land is being commissioned for coffee production. USDA GAIN reports also estimate
areas for some major coffee countries over the past 10 to 15 years but they often differ
substantially from those of FAOSTAT. Since all area estimates are those provided by
official national sources and have not been independently verified for accuracy, all
figures must be regarded as only rough estimates. By combining information from
various sources, a range of area change estimates is provided in Table 1.

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Country Production
change
(t*1000/yr)
Yield
change
kg/ha/yr
Evidence of
deforestation
for coffee?
Range estimates of
annual area change
since 2001 (ha*1000)
Low High
Vietnam
58.6 28.4 Yes + 6.6
(FAO)
+ 32.5 (this
study)
Indonesia
14.8 6.7 Yes - 8.6
(FAO) + 36.5 (GAIN)
Malaysia
3.9 ? No ? ?
Nicaragua
2.8 10.7 No + 2.6
(FAO) + 2.6 (FAO)
Ethiopia
3.6 -18.8 Yes + 31.0
(FA0) + 31.0 (FA0)
India
7.5 6.7 Yes + 4.7
(GAIN)
+ 6.0 (ICB for
2012-17)
Honduras
7.5 13.3 Yes + 2.9
(GAIN) + 5.1 (FAO)
Peru
11.1 15.7 Yes + 6.6
(FAO)
+ 16 (this
study)
China
4.6 ? Circumstantial + 1.5
(FA0) + 25 [ref. 2]
Totals 111.6
47.3 154.7
Table 1. Production, yield and LUC estimates for 9 growth countries where increased production is likely
being caused by land use change.
The column referring to deforestation in Table 1 is derived from a literature search of
more than 100 published papers and reports which are too numerous to cover in this
summary paper.
For countries where there is little or no evidence of technology improvements (i.e. lack
of reports, manuals, papers) and there is peer-reviewed evidence of LUC
(predominantly deforestation), this study concludes that deforestation is the primary
driver of most of the coffee industry’s extra production and is likely to be in excess of
100,000 ha yr
-1
. This study further concludes that global data on coffee production and
LUC is completely inadequate for this era of increasing claims of coffee sustainability
and mounting pressure from climate change.
LITERATURE CITED
[1] Fu, L. (2013). China Coffee Industry Development and Government Policy.
Presentation at the ICO 50th Anniversary meetings, Belo Horizonte 9-13 September
2013 http://www.ico.org/documents/cy2012-13/presentations/pscb-china.pdf
[2] Zhang, H., Li, J., Zhou, H., Chen, Z., Song, G., Peng, Z., Pereira, A., Silva, M. C.,
Varzea, V., (2012). Arabica coffee production in the Yunnan Province of China. ASIC
24th International Conference on Coffee Science, Costa Rica 11-16 November 2012.