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Risk Assessment of Regional Water Resources and Forewarning Model at Different Time Scales
Abstract
With the goal of making full use of water resources, a risk assessment of regional water resources and a forewarning model was studied in this paper. The model is built upon risk indexes in the system, proceeding from the whole structure and its component parts at different time scales. A long-term approach is taken to establish the long-term forewarning model of regional water resources with three levels of prediction, assessment, and forewarning. An hydrological model is employed to simulate the further value of an index. Set pair analysis method is adopted to calculate the connection degree of index risk and systematic risk through a multivariate connection number, while the weight of a single index is determined on the different influences and their respective connection degrees are updated. The comprehensive assessment is made by an assessment matrix with connection degree of comprehensive index. The comparison judging method is used to compartmentalize the warning degree of water resources on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards, and then the long-term local conditions for proposing the planning scheme of water resources. A real-time forewarning approach is also used to establish the real-time forewarning model of regional water resources, which introduces the real-time correction technique of the Kalman filter based on the long-term forewarning model, and then the real-time local conditions for proposing an emergency plan for water resources. The application results show that the proposed model has strong logical superiority and regional adaptability with a strict theoretical system, flexible methods, correct and reasonable results, and simple implementation, providing a new way for researching on the risk assessment and forewarning of regional water resources. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
... Recently, risk assessment and forewarning of flood disaster has become a research hotspot in the global hydrological field (Jiang et al. 2008;Jin et al. 2009;Marchi et al. 2010;Neuhold and Nachtnebel 2011;Botzen et al. 2013;Zhao et al. 2012Zhao et al. , 2013Zhao et al. , 2014aZhao et al. , b, 2016. On the one hand, there are many risk assessment methods, involving vector graphics, mathematical statistics and evidence, fuzzy mathematics, gray correlation, evolutionary modeling, and so forth (Zhao et al. 2013;Sun et al. 2014). ...
... Recently, risk assessment and forewarning of flood disaster has become a research hotspot in the global hydrological field (Jiang et al. 2008;Jin et al. 2009;Marchi et al. 2010;Neuhold and Nachtnebel 2011;Botzen et al. 2013;Zhao et al. 2012Zhao et al. , 2013Zhao et al. , 2014aZhao et al. , b, 2016. On the one hand, there are many risk assessment methods, involving vector graphics, mathematical statistics and evidence, fuzzy mathematics, gray correlation, evolutionary modeling, and so forth (Zhao et al. 2013;Sun et al. 2014). Fang et al. (2009) proposed a mathematical model on the fuzzy property of flood risk assessment for evaluating the integrative risk of flood utilization by fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy processes, detailed with the synthetic analysis technique of risk rate and risk degree, and put forward the method to identify the weights of fuzzy evaluation factors, which could be widely applied to flood disaster risk management. ...
... Secondly, it adjusts model automatically to correct the forecast value based on the real-time measured value and prior information at the current time. Then, the optimal value is estimated (Wu et al. 2008;Zhao et al. 2013). The space description can be expressed as the state equation and measurement equation which are as follows: ...
Aiming at reducing losses from flood disaster, risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model is studied. The model is built upon risk indices in flood disaster system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts at different spatial-temporal scales. In this study, on the one hand, it mainly establishes the long-term forewarning model for the surface area with three levels of prediction, evaluation, and forewarning. The method of structure-adaptive back-propagation neural network on peak identification is used to simulate indices in prediction sub-model. Set pair analysis is employed to calculate the connection degrees of a single index, comprehensive index, and systematic risk through the multivariate connection number, and the comprehensive assessment is made by assessment matrixes in evaluation sub-model. The comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of flood disaster on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards in forewarning sub-model and then the long-term local conditions for proposing planning schemes. On the other hand, it mainly sets up the real-time forewarning model for the spot, which introduces the real-time correction technique of Kalman filter based on hydrological model with forewarning index, and then the real-time local conditions for presenting an emergency plan. This study takes Tunxi area, Huangshan City of China, as an example. After risk assessment and forewarning model establishment and application for flood disaster at different spatial-temporal scales between the actual and simulated data from 1989 to 2008, forewarning results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk remains a decline on the whole from 2009 to 2013, despite the rise in 2011. At the macroscopic level, project and non-project measures are advanced, while at the microcosmic level, the time, place, and method are listed. It suggests that the proposed model is feasible with theory and application, thus offering a way for assessing and forewarning flood disaster risk.
... Currently, safety evaluation studies of water resources are mostly concerned with the balance of supply and demand (Finlayson et al. 2012), the carrying capacity (Song et al. 2010), and the regional water footprint . Researchers generally study water resource security from the perspective of either economic development and population growth or water quantity and quality (or both) Zhao et al. 2013a). However, previous studies have ignored not only a series of human response measures, but also their direct impact on the ecological, socioeconomic, and water resources systems. ...
... In contrary, set pair analysis (SPA) has several advantages for analyzing system uncertainty relationships, such as conceptual simplicity, facility in calculation, and high precision. SPA has been applied to health assessments of urban ecosystems (Su et al. 2009), regional water resource risk assessment (Zhao et al. 2013a). Based on genetic algorithm and SPA, Yang et al. (2011) established a new nonlinear optimization SPA model (NOSPAM) for assessing water resource renewability (Yang et al. 2011). ...
... where N is the total number of features; S is the number of identity features; F is the number of discrepancy features; P is the number of contrary features; l is the connection degree; a = S/N, b = F/N, and c = P/N are called the identity degree, the discrepancy degree, and the contrary degree, respectively; a ? b?c = 1; i is the coefficient of discrepancy degree (which has different values [-1, 1] in different conditions and sometimes is solely considered a marker of the discrepancy degree), and j is the coefficient of contrary degree (which has a value of -1 and sometimes may be considered solely a marker of contrary degree) Zhao et al. 2013a). The connection degree l consists of three parts: identity, discrepancy, and contrary where the difference coefficient i describes stochastic, fuzzy, gray, and other uncertain phenomenon between pairs. ...
Water resources are the basis of both regional sustainable development and a sustainable socioeconomy. Moreover, the evaluation of water resource security is a prerequisite for effective water resources management. Existing water resource problems have become one of the most significant factors limiting sustainable development. How to effectively identify stress factors and assess existing water resource management measures is important basis to achieve security issues. With Chongqing City of China, stress factors and the efficiency of water management measures were evaluated in this paper. The pressure, status, and response framework allows for the assessment of water resources based on three subsystems: the pressure subsystem, the status subsystem, and the response subsystem. Using an entropy-weighted set pair model, Chongqing’s water resource security from 2000 to 2011 was evaluated in an effort to determine the source of the pressure on the water resources system and to evaluate the efficiency of present response measures. The results show that water resource security has generally improved in Chongqing, which was in the Moderate Warning Level from 2000 to 2006 and in the Critical Safety Level from 2007 to 2011. The pressure on the water resources system in Chongqing mainly comes from rapid economic growth, urbanization, and the development of agriculture in Three Gorges Reservoir. However, some response measures have exhausted their capacity for improvement, while the enforcement of others has not been adequate. The main reason for improvement in the water resources system in Chongqing is the increase in forest coverage and the continuous investment in ecological management of the Three Gorges Reservoir.
... As research progresses, scholars are increasingly aware of the impact of temporal scales [127], spatial scales [128,129], and the granularity of water usage [81] on the accuracy of water scarcity risk assessments. For instance, Salmivaara et al. [129] proposed multi-regional and multi-scalar approaches to enhance the robustness of assessment results, addressing significant differences in outcomes caused by the choice of assessment units in spatial water resource evaluations. ...
Driven by population growth and economic development, the demand for water resources continues to increase worldwide, leading to regional and seasonal water scarcity in many countries. Accurate assessment of water scarcity risks is essential for effective water resource risk management and allocation, depending on the continuous development and innovation of water scarcity risk evaluation methods. This study reviews the historical development of these methods, analyzes their trends, and summarizes the theoretical foundations, implementation processes, application scenarios, and limitations, providing insights for future research directions. Initially, we employ bibliometric statistics and keyword clustering analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of relevant studies and identify focal points and hotspots, uncovering relationships between publication numbers and factors such as national attention, population, and financial investment. We innovatively categorize primary evaluation methods into six types: single index method, indicator system evaluation, stochastic simulation, artificial intelligence, remote sensing and GIS, and virtual water economics. Theoretical foundations, implementation processes, and algorithm principles of each category are summarized, and application scenarios and limitations are discussed, facilitating a deeper understanding and expansion for readers. Finally, we explore and prospect key issues, including assessment and prediction of water scarcity risks under multi-scenario coupling, differences and accuracy of water scarcity risk assessments at various spatiotemporal scales, rural water scarcity risk evaluation, and integration of high-resolution remote sensing with drought limit water levels for water scarcity risk assessment, aiming to provide new directions and perspectives for future research.
... At industrial sites, risk refers to a combination of the probability of a hazardous accident and the consequences of such an event occurring [Harms-Ringdahl, 2004]. A number of different risk assessment methods have been developed to deal with the complex operations and difficult conditions that are typically experienced during disasters and their immediate aftermath, including models based on vector graphics, mathematical statistics and evidence, fuzzy mathematics, gray correlations, evolutionary modeling, and so forth [Zhao et al., 2013] [Sun et al., 2014]. One of the key issues is how best to model the risk assessment based on fuzzy inference to address some of these problems of imperfectness and ambiguity. ...
Nuclear power plant accidents such as those at Fukushima and Chernobyl release a significant amount of hazardous radiation. It takes a long time to recover from such an accident and the difficulty of the task is very high due to the many risks. Restoration work using unmanned vehicles protects workers from the risk of secondary accidents such as radiation exposure and building collapses. Unmanned tasks in high-risk environments should be performed in accordance with carefully planned and optimized work scenarios that prioritize specific tasks. This study examined the non-radiological and radiological risks, accessibility, task difficulty, and efficiency that determine work priorities in such cases and developed a methodology to assess the risks associated with specific unmanned restoration tasks. The proposed risk assessment methodology is based on a risk matrix that can be used to derive work priorities for each zone at a post-disaster nuclear site.
... Following Zhao (2000), SPA has seen widespread applications in mathematics, physics, information science, economy, resource assessment, and environmental science. In the context of hydrology and environmental science, SPA has been used for urban ecosystem health assessment (Su et al., 2009), water resources system assessment , river health evaluation (Xu et al., 2011), landslide hazard degree assessment (Wang and Li, 2012), selection of a reference basin in ungauged regions , risk assessment and forewarning for regional water resources (Zhao et al., 2013), evaluation of drought index at multi-time scales (Zhang et al., 2013a(Zhang et al., , 2013b, water resources trends (Feng et al., 2014), river basin resource compensation characteristics , river eco-system assessment and restoration Li et al., 2016;Pan et al., 2017), waterlog disaster risk evaluation (Jin et al., 2015), sustainability assessment of a water resources system (Du et al., 2015) and safety analysis (Chong et al., 2017). ...
Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, wavelet de-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. Compared to three other generic methods, the results generated by WD-REPA model presented invariably smaller error measures which means the forecasting capability of the WD-REPA model is better than other models. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series.
... In retrospect, SPA is more and more used in many areas such as biology, chemistry, physics and engineering. In risk assessment domain, SPA method has applied in many realms such as natural disaster Wang and Li, 2012;Yang et al., 2014;Zou et al., 2013), engineering security (Pan et al., 2012;Zhong et al., 2015), and ecological security (Su et al., 2010), pollution (Li et al., 2013), and water resources (Zhao et al., 2013). However, SPA method is rarely used in source water areas to facilitate risk management and to prevent these areas from water pollution. ...
Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas.
Traditional blue water resources assessment and management may not meet the needs of sustainable water resource utilization; ignoring the number of green water resources will underestimate the availability of water resources. To rationally allocate and scientifically manage the limited water resources, it is necessary to divide the rich and poor flow situation of blue water and green water. The MIKE SHE-MIKE HYDRO integrated coupled model was selected and used in the Yalong River basin to ascertain the blue and green water in the hydrological cycle. The model was calibrated by matching simulated discharge against observed streamflow discharge at the Tongziling Station. At the same time, the research analyzed the component of green water and the total amount of blue water or green water on a temporal scale. The set pair analysis (SPA) was introduced to classify blue water and green water, which can not only understand the amount and distribution characteristics of water resources in the Yalong River Basin but also rationally allocate the total of water resources in the basin from the perspective of the regional water cycle. Furthermore, according to the situation of blue water and green water in the basin, the related policies are formulated to realize the efficient utilization of water resources in the Yalong River basin.
Debris flow alluvial fans (DFAFs) are vulnerable, although they can be used as a natural resource. The relationships between different factors related to DFAF systems and between these factors and systems are important both for identifying the risks and opportunities presented by DFAFs and for tracking system status. In this regard, resilience may be used to characterize the status of a DFAF. This study aimed to explore the processes and mechanisms of interactions among the social, economic, and ecological factors related to DFAF with respect to resilience, and to discuss potential problems in a representative DFAF. Based on the site condition and characteristics of the Awang DFAF (China) in the period 1996–2017, we formed a comprehensive indicator evaluation framework by analyzing disturbance, function, and feedback. We also established a model for evaluating resilience by integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) – an entropy evaluation method (EEM) and set pair analysis (SPA). The results showed that the system of the studied DFAF was dynamically stable. The domination of the ecological system was subsequently superseded by social and economic resilience. While disturbance had direct and immediate effects, coping ability was cumulative and characterized by hysteresis at a particular response time. Overall, resilience fluctuated within an acceptable range rather than linearly increasing or decreasing. This analysis illuminated the dynamic processes of DFAFs and contributed to the understanding and planning of system trade-offs and degraded-land utilization.
Nuclear power plant accidents such as those at Fukushima and Chernobyl release a significant amount of hazardous radiation. It takes a long time to recover from such an accident and the difficulty of the task is very high due to the many risks. Restoration work using unmanned vehicles protects workers from the risk of secondary accidents such as radiation exposure and building collapses. Unmanned tasks in high-risk environments should be performed in accordance with carefully planned and optimized work scenarios that prioritize specific tasks. This study examined the non-radiological and radiological risks, accessibility, task difficulty, and efficiency that determine work priorities in such cases and developed a methodology to assess the risks associated with specific unmanned restoration tasks. The proposed risk assessment methodology is based on a risk matrix that can be used to derive work priorities for each zone at a post-disaster nuclear site.
Under the background analysis of water issues, water environment random evaluation model based on Bayesian theory is put forward to universally describe and physically analyze the uncertainty information. Guided by the viewpoint of sustainable development, this study applies water conservancy science, intelligence science and information science to discuss about risk indexes from three aspects of water quantity, water quality, and water ecology with the evolution mechanism of water environment. The evaluation index system is selected by qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation, and index weight is determined by the improved TOPSISI method. The Bayesian theory is employed to set up the random evaluation model. The process is to obtain posterior distribution by prior distribution with sample information. Then, the evaluation levels of water environment are given by the principle of probability maximization with advancing the control policy. Taihu Basin, China is taken as an example. It shows that the proposed model is rigorous with theory, flexible with method, and reasonable with results, providing a new way for studying water resources shortage, water pollution prevention, and water ecology protection, which can be widely applied to water environment management.
Aiming at reducing the losses from flood disaster, a dynamic risk assessment model for flood disaster is studied in this article. This model is built upon the projection pursuit cluster principle and risk indexes in the system, proceeding from the whole structure to its component parts. In this study, a fuzzy analytic hierarchy approach is employed to screen out the index system and determine the index weight, while the future value of each index is simulated by an improved back-propagation neural network algorithm. The proposed model adopts a dynamic evaluation method to analyze temporal data and assesses risk development by comprehensive analysis. The projection pursuit theory is used for clustering spatial data. The optimal projection vector is applied to calculate the risk cluster type. Therefore, the flood disaster risk level is confirmed and then the local conditions for presenting the control strategy. This study takes the Tunxi area, Huangshan city, as an example. After dynamic risk assessment model establishment, verification and application for flood disasters between the actual and simulated data from 2001 to 2013, the comprehensive risk assessment results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk is still in a decline on the whole, despite the rise in a few years. This is in accordance with the actual conditions. The proposed model is shown to be feasible for theory and application, providing a new way to assess flood disaster risk.
Golestan province located in NE Iran is well known for deadly flash floods. This study aimed to evaluate the region’s Early
Warning System (EWS) for flash floods. We used an adapted version of the questionnaire developed by the United Nations International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction. We reviewed documents on the EWS of Golestan, and conducted a qualitative study comprising
interviews with experts and affected people in Kalaleh and Minoodasht. Results were discussed by an expert panel. Regarding
risk knowledge, there was a hazard map at Provincial Disaster Taskforce (PDT) drawn by the provincial Office for Water Resource
Management, but no risk analysis was available. Local people were aware of their exposure to flooding, but not aware of the
existence of a hazard map and their vulnerability situation. In terms of monitoring and warning, PDT faced serious limitations
in issuing Early Warnings, including (1) an inability to make point predictions of rainfall, and (2) the absence of a warning
threshold. Dissemination and communication issued by the Meteorological Office followed a top-to-bottom direction. The contents
were neither clearly understood by other institutions nor reached the potential recipients within an appropriate time frame.
There was a need for a comprehensive response plan with adequate exercises, and no evaluation framework existed. Golestan
EWS is in dire need of improvement. To fill in the gaps ensuring local people receive timely warning, we propose a community-based
model called "Village Disaster Taskforce" (VDT) in which individual villages act as operational units, but interlinked with
other villages and PDT.
The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR), with support from the U.S. EPA, conducted an assessment of wadeable streams in the Driftless Area ecoregion in western Wisconsin using a probabilistic sampling design. This ecoregion encompasses 20% of Wisconsin's land area and contains 8,800 miles of perennial streams. Randomly-selected stream sites (n = 60) equally distributed among stream orders 1-4 were sampled. Watershed land use, riparian and in-stream habitat, water chemistry, macroinvertebrate, and fish assemblage data were collected at each true random site and an associated "modified-random" site on each stream that was accessed via a road crossing nearest to the true random site. Targeted least-disturbed reference sites (n = 22) were also sampled to develop reference conditions for various physical, chemical, and biological measures. Cumulative distribution function plots of various measures collected at the true random sites evaluated with reference condition thresholds, indicate that high proportions of the random sites (and by inference the entire Driftless Area wadeable stream population) show some level of degradation. Study results show no statistically significant differences between the true random and modified-random sample sites for any of the nine physical habitat, 11 water chemistry, seven macroinvertebrate, or eight fish metrics analyzed. In Wisconsin's Driftless Area, 79% of wadeable stream lengths were accessible via road crossings. While further evaluation of the statistical rigor of using a modified-random sampling design is warranted, sampling randomly-selected stream sites accessed via the nearest road crossing may provide a more economical way to apply probabilistic sampling in stream monitoring programs.
The concept of generalized water resources is discussed and the necessity and feasibility of assessment of generalized water resources are investigated. On the basis of watershed distributed hydrologic cycle models an approach for assessment of generalized water resources is established and corresponding computation formula is proposed. The procedure for calculating various components of generalized water resources by using the WEP-L model is given as an example for demonstration. A method for distinguishing the high efficiency utilized water and low efficiency utilized water according to the assessment of their effectiveness to be utilized is proposed.
Based on the principle of support vector machine a model for assessing water shortage risk is proposed. In the model, the assessment of risk is regarded as the regression of a support vector machine and the risk rate, weakness, possibility of recovery, period of reappear and risk level are defined as the indexes for establishing the comprehensive assessment index system for water shortage risk of regional water resources. The application to analysis of the southeast area of Fujian Province, China, shows that the proposed model is feasible and the result indicates the water shortage risk level in this area will be high in 2010, so that measures for risk management must be adopted in the near future.
The entropy theory is introduced to combine with the traditional fuzzy comprehensive assessment method to establish an entropy fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. In the model the risk rate, weakness, possibility of recovery, period for reappear and risk level are defined as the indexes to establish the comprehensive assessment index system for water shortage risk of regional water resources. The coefficients of weight for evaluation factors in the model can be derived from the available value of data reflecting the information entropy, by which the problem of weight allocation can be solved and make the weight allocation more reasonable. The application to a case study indicates that the proposed method is reliable and practical.
Based on the theory of fuzzy probability, a model which can be used to comprehensively evaluate both the probability and the impact degree due to water shortage risk is developed. In the model a membership function is constructed to evaluate the fuzziness of water resources systems, and a logistic regression model for simulating and forecasting the occurrence probability of water shortage risk is established. On this basis, an evaluation model for water shortage risk based on fuzzy probability is obtained. The sensitive factors of water shortage risk are identified by discrimination analysis. As an example, the water shortage risk of Beijing City from 1979 to 2005 is analyzed. The result indicates that the quantities of water resources, sewage discharge, agricultural water consumption and domestic water consumption are main factors affecting the risk of water shortage. After taking measures of promoting the water reuse and receiving the water provided by South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the water shortage risk of Beijing City in 2010 to 2020 can be reduced to a comparative low level.
Water resources planning involves groups or institutions having differing objectives, responsibilities, and interests, and it requires collaboration for conflict resolution. In this paper, the characteristics and modeling requirements of conflict resolution in water resources planning are discussed. A method based on compound models is proposed for regional water resources planning involving multiple decision makers. This method combines modeling techniques such as multiobjective analysis and multicriteria and multiparticipant decision methods, and supports plan generation and evaluation, individual and group preference elicitation, and negotiation taking aim at a consensus plan. The method demonstrates that computer models can be effective and useful for group decisions in water resources planning by facilitating information sharing, participative model development, and learning processes.
Decision support system (DSS) is a flexible information technology system that is useful in making semi-structure and non-structure decisions. This paper takes Toutun river basin in Xinjiang as a typical study region, combines "3S" (RS, GIS, GPS), digital 3D virtual emulation and seamless integration of multi-source spatial data with hydrological basin model, forecasting model, reservoir regulating model and damage estimation model to crete a DSS for flood prevention. With this DSS, some difficult issues concerning flood prevention are explored. The characteristics of the DSS for flood prevention for this river basin include: decisions are made spatially-dstributed, real-time, mutual and by group. The DSS is a software platform with diversity and expandability. It contains intelligent and visualization functions.
Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to have significant implications for the hydrological cycle. Several studies have pointed out the importance of basin-scale investigations for determining regional impacts on water resources, including the effects of floods and droughts. In this study, a fully distributed hydrologic model is used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability in a basin in Oklahoma (United States). With this aim, the hydrologic model was applied for current conditions as well as under the hypotheses of climate variations represented by scenarios consistent with a climatic trend analysis generated using a stochastic weather model. Hydrologic simulations indicate that streamflow and evapotranspiration reflect variations in precipitation differently. Positive trends in precipitation result in an increase in surface and groundwater resources, while evapotranspiration is only affected slightly due to the higher soil moisture in the basin. Sensitivity analyses of the evapotranspiration and runoff changes to precipitation variations confirm these results. Comparisons of the impacts of the precipitation trend on surface and groundwater resources showed that the increase of surface water resources is ∼3 times greater, implying the groundwater system is affected less by climate change. The use of a distributed model also provided insight on the spatial variation of the water balance components. Results showed that the most significant increases of soil moisture (∼60%) are located along the river network and in the flat areas of the basin, characterized by a higher frequency of saturation excess runoff. In summary, climate change scenarios in this region produced an increase in water resources that can have beneficial impacts, but these positive effects are tempered by the increasing potential for flood risk. The increase of this risk has been evaluated as well in this analysis.
Integrated water resource management (IWRM) and water sharing concepts are described. Various definitions of IWRM are presented. It can be described as a facilitated stakeholder process to promote coordinated activities in pursuit of common goals for multiple objective development and management of water founded in sustainable water resource systems. Sustainable water resource systems support social objectives into the indefinite future without undermining hydrologic and ecological integrity. IWRM is comprised of objectives, institutions, implementation, and adaptation, reflecting merging of top-down and bottom-up approaches. It can assume many institutional forms, and is best implemented at the river basin or subbasin scales. Several water sharing models and principles are introduced. Examples of mature yet different IWRM governance structures in California and France are presented. Wide-scale adoption of IWRM remains elusive. Changing societal values, increasing water demands, growing water use conflicts, and link to poverty reduction and economic development provide impetus to adopt IWRM; it remains a promising mechanism to better use and share water to balance economic, environmental, and social aspects that underpin sustainable development.
Pressure on the world's water resources is increasing, restraining social and economic development in many countries, and threatening ecological values in others. In order to manage water resources in a more sustainable manner, new planning methodologies/processes for river basin management need to be developed. This study attempts to construct a set of useable normative criteria for the analysis and evaluation of such processes. The criteria were designed as a response to the lack of deductive approaches in the evaluation of methodologies and working procedures used in the context of river basin management, making it possible to highlight their potential for sustainable development. The criteria are based on the twin concepts of participation and integration. These concepts function as well-established dimensions of both sustainable development and sustainable river basin management, and they are of significant methodological relevance. A synthesis of the key aspects connected to the two concepts is undertaken, based on a broad literature review. Focus is laid on how in methodological terms, and in relation to regional water management, to achieve participation and integration in a decision-making or planning process. The criteria are concerned with how knowledge and values are integrated into the planning process and how commitment, legitimacy, or acceptance for the resulting plan is generated.
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