Article

L’analyse stratégique et quelques développements récents en criminologie

Authors:
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the author.

Abstract

Strategic analysis views crime as a confrontation and as a mean to an end. It is characterised by : 1) it concentrates on crime; 2) it takes cognizance of the circumstances under which the crime is committed; 3) it presents the crime as a decision influenced by its anticipated results. Felson's routine activity approach, which is similar to strategic analysis, is presented in this article. Other recent developments in criminology have made it possible to present several assertions with a view to explaining certain aspects of theft, in particular, the choice of target. These assertions are : 1) thefts vary according to the opportunities offered potential thieves; 2) opportunity is defined as the contact between a potential criminal and a suitable target; 3) the number of contacts between potential criminals and suitable targets varies directly with the number of targets and their accessibility; 4) the suitability of targets varies in direct proportion to their value and vulnerability. It varies in inverse proportion to their inertia.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the author.

... L'article comporte quatre sections distinctes. Dans la première, les grands principes de l'approche néoclassique sont brièvement présentés, tels qu'ils l'ont été dans la revue par Cusson (1986). Ensuite, l'ensemble des contributions à la revue sont analysées afin de suivre l'évolution des préoccupations quant au crime depuis sa création. ...
... Dans la revue Criminologie, c'est l'article de Cusson (1986) qui a présenté les principes de base de l'approche néoclassique en criminologie, qu'il a renommé « analyse stratégique ». Après avoir rappelé qu'en analyse stratégique l'attention se porte sur le crime et non plus sur le criminel, Cusson (1986) indique qu'« [o]n tient compte des circonstances dans lesquelles se produit un délit et qui le rendent possible » (p. ...
... Dans la revue Criminologie, c'est l'article de Cusson (1986) qui a présenté les principes de base de l'approche néoclassique en criminologie, qu'il a renommé « analyse stratégique ». Après avoir rappelé qu'en analyse stratégique l'attention se porte sur le crime et non plus sur le criminel, Cusson (1986) indique qu'« [o]n tient compte des circonstances dans lesquelles se produit un délit et qui le rendent possible » (p. 55). ...
Article
Le crime est l’unité d’analyse de base des approches classique et néoclassique en criminologie. Cet intérêt pour l’acte délictueux a été mis de côté pendant une bonne partie de l’histoire de la criminologie, mais a été remis de l’avant avec la publication, en 1968, d’un texte marquant de Gary S. Becker. Le présent article vise à décrire la place du crime parmi les contributions publiées par la revue Criminologie depuis sa fondation, la même année. Après un bref rappel des grands principes de l’approche néoclassique, il est démontré que le crime a occupé une place marginale dans la revue ; les onze articles ayant spécifiquement analysé une forme de crime sont ensuite décrits de façon à déterminer les points communs entre les articles. L’article se conclut avec quelques remarques et observations sur l’avenir de la recherche sur le phénomène criminel diffusée par la revue Criminologie .
... Même si le chien comme élément de prévention situationnelle est largement cité comme exemple, la littérature empirique sur l'effet dissuasif des chiens sur la commission de cambriolages est mince (Cromwell et al., 1990 ;Cusson, 1986 ;Nicolson, 1994, cité dans Weisel, 2002. C'est dans ce contexte que la présente étude vise à analyser la relation entre la présence de cambriolages et la présence de chiens dans les domiciles sur le territoire de la ville de Montréal pour les années 2015 à 2018. ...
... Le chien est considéré par plusieurs auteurs (Cromwell et al., 1990;Cusson, 1986;Nicolson, 1994, cité dans Weisel, 2002 comme un gardien selon la théorie des activités routinières, capable d'empêcher le crime par son unique présence (Felson, 1995). Comme le mentionnait Nicolson (1994, cité dans Weisel, 2002, la présence d'un chien peut être un élément qui rend une cible moins intéressante aux yeux d'un délinquant potentiel et augmente les coûts du passage à l'acte (Wright et al., 1995). ...
Article
Full-text available
Le cambriolage est un crime particulièrement fréquent dans les grandes villes. L’objectif de ce projet est d’évaluer la présence d’un lien statistique entre la répartition de cambriolages et la propriété de chiens dans les domiciles de la ville de Montréal pour les années 2015 à 2018. Cette étude vise à croiser des données en sources ouvertes de la ville quant au nombre de cambriolages, du registre municipal des animaux de compagnie, ainsi que des données du recensement. Des analyses bivariées et multivariées, telles que les corrélations et une analyse de régression binomiale négative, sont utilisées. Les résultats suggèrent que les chiens ont un fort effet dissuasif sur la commission de cambriolages, présumément en augmentant les coûts du passage à l’acte pour les cambrioleurs potentiels. Cette recherche suggère de nouveau que des moyens de prévention situationnelle peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur le crime.
... D'un côté, on trouve des explications en termes de déficience, soit hérédita ristes qui insistent sur l'idée que l'acte délinquant est l'expres sion d'une nature particulière (Lombroso, 1876), soit psychologiques qui postulent l'existence de troubles psychiques qui altèrent le contrôle que Je sujet a sur ses conduites. D'un autre côté, on relève des explications qui avancent que Je passage à J'acte délinquant est le fruit d'une délibération ration nelle : Je délinquant est une personne normale mais opportuniste qui transgresse volontairement la Loi car elle en retire un profit narcissique ou économique (thèse de l'acteur rationnel, Cusson, 1986). Le second champ renvoie aux explications centrées sur les dynamiques interpersonnelles, particulièrement familiales (par exemple pratiques éducatives déficientes, autorité parentale en question, etc.) (BJatier, 1999;Chaillou, 1995). ...
... D'un côté, on trouve des explications en termes de déficience, soit hérédita ristes qui insistent sur l'idée que l'acte délinquant est l'expres sion d'une nature particulière (Lombroso, 1876), soit psychologiques qui postulent l'existence de troubles psychiques qui altèrent le contrôle que Je sujet a sur ses conduites. D'un autre côté, on relève des explications qui avancent que Je passage à J'acte délinquant est le fruit d'une délibération ration nelle : Je délinquant est une personne normale mais opportuniste qui transgresse volontairement la Loi car elle en retire un profit narcissique ou économique (thèse de l'acteur rationnel, Cusson, 1986). Le second champ renvoie aux explications centrées sur les dynamiques interpersonnelles, particulièrement familiales (par exemple pratiques éducatives déficientes, autorité parentale en question, etc.) (BJatier, 1999;Chaillou, 1995). ...
Article
Full-text available
ADSTRACT This study has been carried among children (8- and 9-year-olds, recruited from different schools) and adults to determine how representations of delinquency change according kind of offences (physical and property). The subjects were asked to assess different acts of delinquency and estimated the causes, treatments and reasons of sanctions which were the more relevant according to them. lt can be noted thar physical offences are more tied with individuals' explanations and punitive orientation, property offences with social èxplanation and comprehensive orientation. These distinctions between the two kinds of offences are marked in adult population.. KEYWORDS Representations of delinquent.T, physical and property offences, children and adults. RËSUMË La présente recherche, menée auprès d'enfants - âgés de 8-9 ans et issus d'établissements scolaires différents - et d'adultes, examine les représentations de la délinquance selon le type d'atteintes (atteintes aux. personnes ou atteinte.'\ aux biens). Les sujet'\ devaient évaluer la gravité de différents actes de délinquànce et esthner Jeurs causes, les réactions à l'égard des auteurs de ces actes, puis indiquer les raisons des sanctions qui. d'après eux. sont les plus pertinentes. On note. au niveau des résultats, une plus grande fréquence, pour les aneintes aux personnes, d'explications individuelles et d'attitudes punitives, pour les atteintes aux biens, d'explications sociales et d'attitudes compréhensives, ces différences étant généralement plus marquées chez les adultes que chez les enfants. MOTS-Cl .EPS Représentations de la délinquance, atteintes aux personnes et atteintes aux biens, enfant􀁳/adultes.
... In an article by Cusson (1986), he argues that a synthesis of these theories is inevitable. ...
... L'analyse s'inspire des recherches qui ont été faites sur la prévention «situationnelle» du crime, sur les choix des cibles ou sur les facteurs associés à la victimisation (pour un bilan récent, cf. Cusson, 1986). Ces travaux s'intéressent moins à ce que «sont» les délinquants qu'à ce qu'ils «font»; le délit n'est plus considéré comme le symptôme d'une prédisposition, mais comme une décision influencée par les résultats anticipés; et l'analyse a pour fonction de dégager les dynamiques complexes sous-jacentes aux circonstances dans lesquelles les délits se produisent. ...
Article
This article concerns the commercial prostitution that was operating in the Montreal region from 1981 to 1985. An anal- ysis of the police archives and the classified advertisements made it possible to reconstitute the decisions a criminal who wants to get into this market has to make with regard to the opportunities available and the specific requirements of his milieu (social and police-related). One of the major conclu- sions of this article is the transient structural nature of ven- tures in commercial prostitution. The results could be eviden- ce of the temporary nature and instability of the criminal opportunities themselves.
... 3.6 The 'Opportunity Structure for Crime' An article, by Cusson (1986) asserts that differences between the aforementioned could turn out to be mainly of historical interest, and that a synthesis of these approaches is desirable and inevitable. Following on from this, Clarke (1995) attempts in a recent paper such a synthesis as shown in Fig. 1 whereas examples of the latter would be get-away cars, guns for armed robberies and drugs likely to loosen inhibitions and thereby lead to the commission of a crime. ...
Article
Full-text available
Within the field of IS security little has been written on the subject of criminal opportunity. More precisely, little has been written on what exactly constitutes an opportunity, and the relationship between employees, who may might act as potential offenders, and the IS context in which such opportunities may be afforded. The purpose of this study is to assess the feasibility of a model known as the 'crime specific opportunity structure', which, as the name suggests maps out those elements which are thought to form an opportunity. Drawing on a number of criminological theories, the model considers the role of potential offenders in a work place setting by viewing them as rational decision-makers, who assess their environment, and possible opportunities, in cost-benefit terms. Furthermore, the model takes a crime-specific approach as each type of crime is made up of a unique mix of elements. Ignoring the idiosyncratic nature of specific crimes severely reduces an understanding of each type of crime, and further hinders effective prevention programmes. An ethnographic account of the collapse of a financial institution is used to assess the feasibility of the model.
... Cusson [10] argues that the differences between the aforementioned will, given time, be a matter of historical interest, and that a synthesis is inevitable. With this in mind, Clarke [5] attempts such a synthesis in what he terms 'The Opportunity Structure for Crime' (See Appendix, Fig. I.).Fig. ...
Conference Paper
Although computer fraud continues to be a thorn in the side of many organizations, fresh perspectives to addressing this type of crime are rare. This paper advances a preventive approach which reduces those criminal opportunities that permit computer fraud to take place. The construction of crime specific opportunity structures, which enable the relevant parties to conceptualize the fraud environment, is advocated. This aids and promotes an inter-departmental preventive effort, so vital to combating and containing fraud.
... In an article by Cusson (1986), he argues that a synthesis of these theories is inevitable. Clarke (1995) attempts such a synthesis as shown in Figure 1 entitled the 'opportunity structure for crime'. ...
Article
Systems risk refers to the likelihood that an Information System (IS) is inadequately protected against certain types of damage or loss. While risks are posed by acts of God, hackers and viruses, consideration should also be given to the ‘insider’ threat of dishonest employees, intent on undertaking some form of computer crime. Against this backdrop, a number of researchers have addressed the extent to which security managers are cognizant of the very nature of systems risk. In particular, they note how security practitioners' knowledge of local threats, which form part of such risk, is often fragmented. This shortcoming contributes to situations where risk reducing efforts are often less than effective. Security efforts are further complicated given that the task of managing systems risk requires input from a number of departments including, for example, HR, compliance, IS/IT and physical security. To complement existing research, and also to offer a fresh perspective, this paper addresses systems risk from the offender's perspective. If systems risk entails the likelihood that an IS is inadequately protected, this text considers those conditions, within the organisational context, which offer a criminal opportunity for the offender. To achieve this goal a model known as the ‘Crime-Specific Opportunity Structure’ is advanced. Focusing on the opportunities for computer crime, the model addresses the nature of such opportunities with regards to the organisational context and the threats posed by rogue employees. Drawing on a number of criminological theories, it is believed the model may help inform managers about local threats and, by so doing, enhance safeguard implementation.European Journal of Information Systems (2006) 15, 403–414. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ejis.3000592
... In an article by Cusson (1986), he argues that a synthesis of these theories is inevitable. Clarke (1995) attempts such a synthesis as shown in Fig. 1 Crime Specific Opportunity Structures? ...
Article
Full-text available
Systems risk refers to the likelihood that an IS is inadequately guarded against certain types of damage or loss. While risks are posed by acts of God, hackers and viruses, consideration should also be given to the ‘insider’ threat of dishonest employees, intent on undertaking some form of computer abuse. Against this backdrop, a number of researchers have addressed the extent to which security managers are cognizant of the very nature of systems risk. In particular, they note how security practitioners’ knowledge of local threats, which form part of such risk, is often fragmented. This contributes to situations where risk reducing efforts are often less than effective. Security efforts are further complicated given that the task of managing systems risk requires input from a number of departments including, for example, HR, compliance, IS/IT and physical security. In a bid to complement existing research, but also offer a fresh perspective, this paper addresses systems risk from the offender’s perspective. If systems risk entails the likelihood that an IS is inadequately protected, this text considers those conditions, within the organisational context, which offer a criminal opportunity for the offender. To achieve this goal a model known as the ‘Crime Specific Opportunity Structure’ is advanced. Focussing on the opportunities for computer abuse, the model addresses the nature of such opportunities with regards to the organisational context and the threats posed by rogue employees. Drawing on a number of criminological theories, it is believed the model may help inform managers about local threats and, by so doing, enhance safeguard implementation.
Article
Full-text available
The spatial inscription of crime in cities in the Global South: The case of Yaoundé Yaoundé, like most cities in the Global South, is particularly affected by crime. This is a real scourge for local authorities, who are now trying to curb this phenomenon. Studies in geocriminality show that crime is not randomly located in urban areas; rather, it responds to territorial logics and is often concentrated in the most deprived neighborhoods. Based on sociodemographic and urban planning data on the one hand, and crime data on the other, we have tried to establish a geography of crime in the Cameroonian capital. Our results show that the spatial inscription of criminal acts requires a territorialized response from police forces and public authorities. Classification JEL : C31, C33, O40, R11
Chapter
Self-report delinquency research has a few major landmarks. During the Second World War, two surveys of self-report delinquency were conducted, one with college students (Porterfield, 1946) and one with the subjects of the Cambridge-Sommerville experiment (Murphy, 1946). In 1955, the first standardized instrument was applied to a representative sample of adolescents and a cumulative scale of delinquency was constructed (Nye & Short, 1958). And, in the late 1970s, the most comprehensive study of the metric properties of self-report delinquency was realized with a complex research design which provided controls for different methods of administration (Hindelang, Hirschi & Weis, 1981). There is, however, another landmark which is often forgotten. At the Syracuse University Conference of 1965 (Hardt & Bodine, 1965), many of the methodological questions concerning self-report delinquency instruments and measures were thoroughly reviewed and recommendations were formulated to improve the measurement of delinquency. One of these recommendations has been forgotten by many authors in the published literature — to provide a detailed description of the data collection procedure.
Article
This paper puts forward an analytic ordering of academics’ criminals, suggesting a sociology of sociology of deviance which seeks to grasp its modes of thinking. It is proposed that the totality of scientific utterances regarding criminalized deviance can be distributed in three sets, on the basis of the meaning given to crime. Pathology, choice and social construct are the three fundamental axiomatic principles organizing discursive regularities in academics’ works related to criminalized deviance and its control.
Article
Full-text available
Based on several studies and research activities conducted by the Centre for Studies and Research on Police( CERP) from the University of Toulouse 1 Capitole, about several areas of Midi-Pyrénées, this paper seeks to present in which forms, crime and insecurity are formalized in living areas now impacted by the strong growth of the Toulouse metropolitan area. It thus questioned the relevance of the résidentialist paradigm (that is to say, the assumption of a crime would depend in form and intensity of urban, sociological , economic and demographic patterns and trends) and its impact on work organization and missions of law enforcement forces, but also all the local actors involved in security policy and crime prevention. At the level of Midi-Pyrénées, this contribution will give synthetically to know which transformations frameworks and patterns of public policies could emerge in the decade 2000-2010, in different situations, but all with a common element: the need to respond to situations perceived by local actors as risky or dangerous for the safety of citizens.
Article
Tel : 02 31 56 65 93 2 Une recherche en milieu scolaire sur les représentations enfantines de la délinquance : quelles différences avec les adultes ? Résumé La présente recherche, menée auprès d'enfants-âgés de 8-9 ans et issus d'établissements scolaires différents-et d'adultes, examine les représentations de la délinquance selon le type d'atteintes (atteintes aux personnes ou atteintes aux biens). Les sujets devaient évaluer la gravité de différents actes de délinquance et estimer leurs causes, les réactions à l'égard des auteurs de ces actes, puis indiquer les raisons des sanctions qui, d'après eux, sont les plus pertinentes. On note, au niveau des résultats, une plus grande fréquence, pour les atteintes aux personnes, d'explications individuelles et d'attitudes punitives, pour les atteintes aux biens, d'explications sociales et d'attitudes compréhensives, ces différences étant généralement plus marquées chez les adultes que chez les enfants. Mots-clefs : représentations de la délinquance, atteintes aux personnes et atteintes aux biens, enfants/adultes. Abstract This study has been carried among children (8-and 9-year-olds, recruited from different schools) and adults to determine how representations of delinquency change according kind of offences (physical and property). The subjects were asked to assess different acts of delinquency and estimated the causes, treatments and reasons of sanctions which were the more relevant according to them. It can be noted that physical offences are more tied with individuals' explanations and punitive orientation, property offences with social explanations and comprehensive orientation. These distinctions between the two kinds of offences are marked in adult population.
Article
Résumé Cet article soutient la thèse selon laquelle le capital social des délinquants leur permet d’augmenter de manière significative les revenus qu’ils retirent de leurs activités. La démarche utilisée pour rendre opératoire cette proposition a pour effet de renouveler de différentes façons la sociologie criminelle : il ne suffit pas de savoir si un délinquant « fréquente » d’autres délinquants ou non, il faut mesurer la qualité relationnelle et instrumentale des rapports qu’il entretient avec eux et son aptitude à exploiter les opportunités qu’ils ouvrent ; il ne suffit pas de qualifier les délinquants de « chroniques » ou d’« occasionnels », il faut plutôt se demander si leur trajectoire délinquante est « réussie » ou non ; et, finalement, il ne suffit pas de décrire les trajectoires délinquantes, il faut en resituer l’analyse dans le contexte plus large des parcours individuels et collectifs de mobilité professionnelle. Un des bénéfices marginaux d’une telle approche est de remettre en cause la thèse selon laquelle les délinquants seraient inaptes au « succès » en raison de leur témérité, de leur impulsivité ou de leur présentisme. Les données de l’étude proviennent d’entrevues auprès d’un échantillon de 156 détenus fédéraux dans le cadre d’une enquête qui s’intéressait à leur situation financière durant les trois années qui avaient précédé leur incarcération actuelle.
Article
This paper examines the concept of criminal opportunity. More precisely, it focuses on the nature of such opportunities that are to be found within an IS context, and the threat posed by dishonest staff who may act on them. Although hackers and their activities may be given ample column space in the lay press, the potential threat posed by dishonest staff should not be underestimated. The 1998 NCC Business Information Survey reports that the greatest risk of security breaches arose from the activities of personnel within organisations, accounting for nearly 52 per cent of all (physical and logistical) security breaches detected. Similarly, the 1998 CSI/FBI Survey found that the largest single source of financial loss (almost 37 per cent) was attributable to unauthorised insider access. These facts are not lost on security practitioners who, as a rule of thumb, work on the principle that 25 per cent of people are dishonest whenever possible, 25 per cent are always honest and 50 per cent can be either, depending on the nature of security controls and personal motivation.
Article
Fear of crime is thought to limit social activity in older people. Sixty older people, recruited via day centres, were given questionnaire-based interviews. A series of questions produced two scales of crime awareness and a scale of perceived crime prevalence. Fear of crime was operationalized through a catastrophizing technique, and by a single-item measure of perceived safety. Physical health, mental health and psychosocial limitation were assessed. Physical health was found to moderate a relationship between crime awareness and fear of crime. In multivariate models, fear of crime was not a significant predictor of psychosocial limitation, which was predicted by physical and mental health. Implications of the findings for models of fear of crime and health psychology are discussed.
Article
Academics’ criminals -The Discursive Formations of Criminalized Deviance. This paper proposes an analytic ordering of academics’ criminals, suggesting a sociology of the sociology of deviance which try to grasp its ways of thinking. It is proposed that the totality of scientific utterances regarding criminalized deviance can be distributed in three sets, on the basis of the meaning given to crime. Pathology, choice and social construct are the three fundamental axiomatic principles organizing discursive regularities in academics’ works related to criminalized deviance and its control. Full Text
Article
Full-text available
In this paper we present a "routine activity approach" for analyzing crime rate trends and cycles. Rather than emphasizing the characteristics of offenders, with this approach we concentrate upon the circumstances in which they carry out predatory criminal acts. Most criminal acts require convergence in space and time of likely offenders, suitable targets and the absence of capable guardians against crime. Human ecological theory facilitates an investigation into the way in which social structure produces this convergence, hence allowing illegal activities to feed upon the legal activities of everyday life. In particular, we hypothesize that the dispersion of activities away from households and families increases the opportunity for crime and thus generates higher crime rates. A variety of data is presented in support of the hypothesis, which helps explain crime rate trends in the United States 1947-1974 as a byproduct of changes in such variables as labor force participation and single-adult households.
Article
This study examines the relationship between two forms of property (cash and coin in banks and registered motor vehicles) and the amount of theft against that property for the years 1930 through 1965. The study finds that the relationships (using both raw and detrended data) are negative during the 1930’s and early 1940’s, but positive thereafter. A timelag analysis shows that the relationships apparently are not spurious and that changes in the abundance of property precede changes in the amount of crime against that property. That the sign of the relationship has changed from negative to positive is attributed to changes in the population of criminals who prey on these forms of property and their varying responses to property abundance.
Article
Situational crime prevention can be characterized as comprising measures (1) directed at highly specific forms of crime (2) that involve the management, design, or manipulation of the immediate environment in as systematic and permanent a way as possible (3) so as to reduce the opportunities for crime and increase its risks as perceived by a wide range of offenders. These measures include various forms of target hardening (making the objects of crime less vulnerable), defensible space architecture (which encourages residents in housing projects to exercise territorial surveillance of the public spaces outside their dwellings), community crime prevention initatives (e. g., neighborhood watch and citizen patrol schemes), and a number of less-easily categorized measures such as improved coordination of public transport with pub closing times, or more sensitive public housing allocation policies that avoid the concentration of children in particular housing developments. Traditional criminological theories ha...
Article
Developments in a number of academic disciplines-the sociology of deviance, criminology, economics, psychology-suggest that it is useful to see criminal behavior not as the result of psychologically and socially determined dispositions to offend, but as the outcome of the offender's broadly rational choices and decisions. This perspective provides a basis for devising models of criminal behavior that (1) offer frameworks within which to locate existing research, (2) suggest directions for new research, (3) facilitate analysis of existing policy, and (4) help to identify potentially fruitful policy initiatives. Such models need not offer comprehensive explanations; they may be limited and incomplete, yet still be "good enough" to achieve these important policy and research purposes. To meet this criterion they need to be specific to particular forms of crime, and they need separately to describe both the processes of involvement in crime and the decisions surrounding the commission of the offense itself. Developing models that are crime specific and that take due account of rationality will also demand more knowledge about the ways in which offenders process and evaluate relevant information. Such a decision perspective appears to have most immediate payoff for crime control efforts aimed at reducing criminal opportunity.
Article
This paper presents several macrodynamic social indicator models of post-World War II trends in robbery, burglary, and automobile theft rates for the United States. A theory of the ways in wich changes in criminal opportunity affect these Index Crime property crime rates is deveoped. Definitions and postulates are presented from which we derive a main theorem which states that, other things being equal, a decrease in the density of the population in physical locations that are normally sites of primary groups should lead to an increase in criminal opportunities and hence in property crime rates. Corollaries to the main theorem are presented and tested after operationalization of relevant independent and control variables such as the residential population density ratio, the unemployment rate, age structure, total consumer expenditures, and automobiles per capita. Stochastic difference equations, used to evaluate the theory,indicate that the models implied by the theory exhibit good statistical fit to the recorded property crime rates in question over the 26-year estimation period, 1947-72. In addition, these models provide reasonably accurate expost forecasts of observed annual property crime rates over the five-year forecast period, 1973 through 1977. The paper concludes with a discussion of ex ante forecasted equilibrium levels of the three property crime rates for the mid-1980s implied by the estimated models. The forecasts indicate that the robbery and automobile theft rates should drop00 substantially in the 1980s from their recent levels, whereas the burglary rate may continue to grow or at least drop less.
Article
Prior explanations of the distributions of crime have tended to emphasize the criminal intentions of people without considering adequately the circumstances in which criminal acts occur. This paper examines how community structure generates these circumstances and applies Amos Hawley's human ecological theory in treating criminal acts as routine activities which feed upon other routine activities. For example, we consider how married women in the labor force, persons living alone, and lightweight durable goods provide offenders with circumstances favorable for carrying out certain illegal acts. We examine in particular how directcontact predatory violations require the convergence in space and time of offenders, suitable targets,and the absence of effective guardians.Various trends in the social structure can alter crime rates by affecting the likelihood of this convergence, without necessarily requiring changes in the criminal inclinations of individuals.
Article
This study examines the relationship between two forms of property (cash and coin in banks and registered motor vehicles) and the amount of theft against that property for the years 1930 through 1965. The study finds that the relationships (using both raw and de-trended data) are negative during the 1930's and early 1940's, but positive thereafter. A time-lag analysis shows that the relationships apparently are not spurious and that changes in the abundance of property precede changes in the amount of crime against that property. That the sign of the relationship has changed from negative to positive is attributed to changes in the population of criminals who prey on these forms of property and their varying responses to property abundance.
Designing out Crime, London, Her Majesty's stationary office
  • I M Hough
  • R V G Clarke
  • P Mayhew
HOUGH, I.M., R.V.G. CLARKE, P. MAYHEW (1980), ^Introduction», in R.V.G. Clarke, P. Mayhew, Designing out Crime, London, Her Majesty's stationary office.
The R.D.C : Victim Survey
  • Ij M Dijk
  • C H D Van
  • Steinmetz
DIJK, IJ.M., VAN, C.H.D. STEINMETZ (1980), The R.D.C : Victim Survey 1974-1979, The Hague, Research and Documentation Center.
Victims of Personal Crime : An Empirical Foundation for a Theory of Personal Victimization
  • C S Duss
  • P Sutton
  • A L Aumick
HINDELANG, M.J., C.S. DUSS, P. SUTTON, A.L. AUMICK (1977), Source book of Criminal Justice Statistics, 1976, Washington, D.C., U.S. Dept. of Justice L.E.A.A. U.S., Government Printing Office. HINDELANG, M.I., M.R. GOTTFREDSON, J. GAROFALO (1978), Victims of Personal Crime : An Empirical Foundation for a Theory of Personal Victimization, Cambridge, Mass., Ballinger.
Crime Prevention, Stockholm, The National Swedish Council for Crime Prevention
  • E Kuhlhorn
  • Svensson
KUHLHORN, E., SVENSSON (1982), Crime Prevention, Stockholm, The National Swedish Council for Crime Prevention.
Residential Crime The National Swedish Council for crime prevention
  • T A Ballinger
REPPETTO, T.A. (1974), Residential Crime, Cambridge, Mass., Ballinger STEINMETZ, C.H. (1982), «A first step toward victimological risk analysis», in E. Kuhlhorn, B. Svensson, Crime Prevention, Stockholm, The National Swedish Council for crime prevention.
Portrait de voleurs à main armée : les récidivistes et les professionnels, Montréal, Centre international de criminologie comparée
  • M Dionne
DIONNE, M. (1984), Portrait de voleurs à main armée : les récidivistes et les professionnels, Montréal, Centre international de criminologie comparée, Université de Montréal, Rapport technique n° 9.
«Le vol avec effraction: profil de son auteur
  • P Frechette
FRECHETTE, P. (1984), «Le vol avec effraction: profil de son auteur», Sûreté, novembre p. 11-22.
Source book of Criminal Justice Statistics
  • M J Hindelang
  • C S Duss
  • P Sutton
  • A L Aumick
HINDELANG, M.J., C.S. DUSS, P. SUTTON, A.L. AUMICK (1977), Source book of Criminal Justice Statistics, 1976, Washington, D.C., U.S. Dept. of Justice L.E.A.A. U.S., Government Printing Office.
The Physical Environment and Community Control of Crime
  • M Maguire
  • Heinemann London
  • C A Murray
MAGUIRE, M. (1982). Burglary in a Dwelling, London, Heinemann. MURRAY, C.A. (1983), The Physical Environment and Community Control of Crime, in J.Q. Wilson, (edit.), Crime and Public Policy, San Francisco, ICS Press.
«A first step toward victimological risk analysis
  • T A Reppetto
  • Mass Cambridge
  • Steinmetz Ballinger
REPPETTO, T.A. (1974), Residential Crime, Cambridge, Mass., Ballinger STEINMETZ, C.H. (1982), «A first step toward victimological risk analysis», in E. Kuhlhorn, B. Svensson, Crime Prevention, Stockholm, The National Swedish Council for crime prevention.
Portrait du voleur à main armée occasionnel, Montréal, Centre international de criminologie comparée
  • S Bellot
Crime Victimization and the United States Occupational Structure
  • R Block
  • M Felson
  • C Block
Crime Prevention, Stockholm, The National Swedish Council for crime prevention
  • C H Steinmetz
The Physical Environment and Community Control of Crime
  • C A Murray