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A Concise History of World Population
... According to the United Nations prospects, the world population is experiencing unprecedented fast growth and will exceed 9 billion in 2040. 1,2 This increasing number indicates a bigger load on the earth's system, while the universal yearning for better life standards is always inseparable from more resources and energy. Unfortunately, recent data show that around 84% of global primary energy used in the world comes from coal, oil, and gas. 3 The latter negatively impacts human beings since these sources produce carbon dioxide, the largest driver of global climate change. ...
... The crystals of 2N were black as those of the {[Ni(C 2 H 8 N 2 ) 2 ] 3 [Fe(CN) 6 ] 2 } n · 3H 2 O, 32 and it was obtained with the yield of 54%. The crystals of 3N were obtained with success as it was confirmed with the perfect match of their experimental PXRD pattern and that simulated from the structure of [Cu(en) 2 (H 2 O) 1.935 ] 2 [Fe-(CN) 6 ]·4H 2 O as shown in Figure S2; 28 the yield of the synthesis was 64%. ...
... The SRB is defined as 100 girls for every 105 boys born (Chahnazarian, 1988). This indicator typically falls within the normal range of 102 to 106 (Cleland et al., 1983;Coale, 1991;Kalben, 2000;Livi Bacci, 1993). Since the late 1970s, this ratio has increased in certain Asian and Eastern European countries due to declining fertility where sex preference is a culturally preferred practice (Guilmoto, 2009;Kashyap & Villavicencio, 2016). ...
... The results of calculating this index indicate that the SRB in Iran has fluctuated within the normal range between 105 and 106 during the years 1965 to 2021. Studies have shown that a SRB between 105 and 106 falls within a completely natural and normal range (Coale, 1991;Livi Bacci, 1993;Winston, 1931). As observed in Fig. 4, based on the simulation results obtained from DNN and ARIMA modeling approaches, the value of SRB will be decreased from 106 in 2021 to 105 and 104 in 2030. ...
Once fertility falls to a low level, the number of births declines, affecting the future of population growth and age structure. In low-fertility settings where sex preference is culturally rooted in society, the sex ratio at birth is usually higher than the normal average leading to an imbalanced age structure in the long run. Low fertility and its negative consequences have led to the implementation of pronatalist programs aimed at increasing fertility rates in Iran. In this context, the number of births and sex ratio at birth are matters of concern for policymakers. The main objective of this paper is to forecast the trends of the total number of births by gender and predict the sex ratio at birth (SRB) in Iran over 10 years (2021–2030) using two modeling approaches: Deep Neural Networks-DNNs and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average—ARIMA. The results are compared to examine the performance of these forecasting methods. The findings from both DNN and ARIMA approaches suggest a 20.6% and 3.5% reduction in the number of births, respectively, and a changing trend within the normal range for sex ratios at birth. The results show the superiority of DNN model as compared with ARIMA for predictions. We recommend the utilization of the DNN approach and its derivations to visualize the outcomes of population policies based on accurate and long-term predictions. This approach can serve as an initial validation of policy impacts to enhance policymakers’ confidence in their proposed programs.
... Human beings for a long time in the World have lived in relative harmony with the available resources by adjusting the environment and enriching the resources it offers (Livi-Bacci, 2017). However, the mechanism of the human species to balance and re-establish the balance between population numbers and resources is of varying efficiency from population to population and from one age to another (Park et al., 2022). ...
... The age of the female partner is a factor influencing the spontaneous probability of conception (Vander Borght & Wyns, 2018). Consequently, the development of the available resources and population growth grow side by side with population growth, ultimately imposing a greater limit on the available resources that are not static and expand in response to persistent human development (Livi-Bacci, 2017). Population growth, and household food consumption diversity have also been shown as the chief drivers of LUC (Doelman, 2018;Hassan et al., 2016;Msofe et al., 2019). ...
Trends in rural land use change are significant for the economic viability of any country as it contributes to the general health of any bionetwork by promoting conservation. The information on the aspects of population size that influence the trends in land use change is thus crucial for the formulation of policies that can guide common rural land uses such as settlements and agriculture. This paper examines the influence of population size on the trend in rural land use change trends in Rongo Sub-County. The study used a descriptive research design and collected primary data through questionnaires, observations, interviews, focus group discussions, and satellite imagery. A total of 384 respondents were selected using cluster random sampling. A review of relevant literature was adopted to acquire secondary data. The study used descriptive statistics in analysing the quantitative data, while qualitative data was analysed thematically. Findings which were presented in tables and charts show that the study area’s population has increased by 45.5% over the study period (2002-2022) and that there is an increased number of households. Consequently, there is an expansion of farmlands for the production of food and a continuous increase of the area under settlements. The study recommends the development and implementation of policies that can influence the aspects associated with rural land use change transition tendencies.
... Was used. The population of sub-Saharan Africa was determined annually from 3000 BCE to 2000 CE by linear interpolation from estimates for specific years obtained from the literature [205,206]. It was assumed that in 10,000 BCE that half the world's population was living in sub-Saharan Africa, representing 3 million people. ...
... It should be appreciated that the estimation of deaths from malaria attributed to these mosquitoes is, understandably, an imprecise science with a wide variation in estimates. There are variations between annual population estimates by different authors [205,210]. Estimating the proportion of children aged 0-4 years old in historical records is based on only one data source and is therefore a biased sample. Importantly, malaria deaths in older age groups or the large number of malaria deaths that would have occurred during pregnancy have been left out of these calculations. ...
Background
Mosquitoes of the Anopheles gambiae complex are one of the major vectors of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. Their ability to transmit this disease of major public health importance is dependent on their abundance, biting behaviour, susceptibility and their ability to survive long enough to transmit malaria parasites. A deeper understanding of this behaviour can be exploited for improving vector surveillance and malaria control.
Findings
Adult mosquitoes emerge from aquatic habitats at dusk. After a 24 h teneral period, in which the cuticle hardens and the adult matures, they may disperse at random and search upwind for a mate or to feed. Mating generally takes place at dusk in swarms that form over species-specific ‘markers’. Well-nourished females may mate before blood-feeding, but the reverse is true for poorly-nourished insects. Females are monogamous and only mate once whilst males, that only feed on nectar, swarm nightly and can potentially mate up to four times. Females are able to locate hosts by following their carbon dioxide and odour gradients. When in close proximity to the host, visual cues, temperature and relative humidity are also used. Most blood-feeding occurs at night, indoors, with mosquitoes entering houses mainly through gaps between the roof and the walls. With the exception of the first feed, females are gonotrophically concordant and a blood meal gives rise to a complete egg batch. Egg development takes two or three days depending on temperature. Gravid females leave their resting sites at dusk. They are attracted by water gradients and volatile chemicals that provide a suitable aquatic habitat in which to lay their eggs.
Conclusion
Whilst traditional interventions, using insecticides, target mosquitoes indoors, additional protection can be achieved using spatial repellents outdoors, attractant traps or house modifications to prevent mosquito entry. Future research on the variability of species-specific behaviour, movement of mosquitoes across the landscape, the importance of light and vision, reproductive barriers to gene flow, male mosquito behaviour and evolutionary changes in mosquito behaviour could lead to an improvement in malaria surveillance and better methods of control reducing the current over-reliance on the indoor application of insecticides.
... Indeed, starting from the early 1970s the world population growth curve began to diverge more and more from the almost ideal hyperbolic shape it had before (see Fig. 4) (see, e.g., Kapitza, 2003Kapitza, , 2006Kapitza, , 2007Kapitza, , 2010Livi-Bacci 2012;Korotayev, Malkov, Khaltourina 2006a, 2006bKorotayev, Goldstone, Zinkina 2015;Grinin, Korotayev 2015;UN Population Division 2022), and in recent decades it has been taken more and more clearly logistic shape -the trend towards hyperbolic acceleration has been clearly different from the one used by von Foerster. ...
... replaced with the logistic slow-down, with a clear perspective of transition to a negative population growth rate (see Fig. 5 In some respect, it may be said that von Foerster did discover the singularity of the human demographic history; it may be said that he detected that the human World System was approaching the singular period in its history when the hyperbolic accelerating trend that it had been following for a few millennia (and even a few millions of years according to some) would be replaced with an opposite decelerating trend. The process of this trend reversal has been studied very thoroughly by now (see, e.g., Vishnevsky 1976Vishnevsky , 2005Chesnais 1992;Caldwell et al. 2006;Khaltourina & Korotayev, 2007;Korotayev, Malkov, Khaltourina 2006a, 2006bKorotayev 2009;Gould 2009;Dyson 2010;Reher 2011;Livi-Bacci, 2012;Choi, 2016;Podlazov, 2017) and is known as the "global demographic transition" (Kapitza 1999(Kapitza , 2003(Kapitza , 2006(Kapitza , 2010Podlazov 2017). Note that in case of global demographic evolution the transition from the hyperbolic acceleration to logistic deceleration started a few decades before the singularity point mathematically detected by von Foerster. ...
The paper presents preliminary results of a quantitative analysis of two patterns of complexity growth in the Big History - decelerating universal (cosmic) evolutionary development evidenced in the Universe for a few billions of years after the Big Bang (around 13.8 billion BP) and accelerating global (biosocial) evolutionary development observed for about 4 billion years on the planet Earth since the emergence of life on it and until the early 1970s. It is shown that the first pattern can be described with an astonishing accuracy (R 2 = 0.999996) by the following equation: y = C1/(t-t1*), where y is the rate of the universal complexity growth (measured as a number of phase transitions [accompanied by the growth of complexity] per a unit of time), C1 is a constant, and t-t1* is the time since the Big Bang Singularity (t1*~13.8 billion years BP). In the meantime, it was earlier shown that the second pattern could be described with an almost as high accuracy (R 2 = 0.9989 to 0.9991) by the following equation: y = C2/(t2*-t), where y is the rate of accelerating global (biosocial) evolutionary development, C2 is another constant, and t2*-t is the time till the 21st century Singularity (t2*, estimated to be around 2027, or 2029 CE). Thus, the post-Big-Bang hyperbolic decrease of universal complexity growth rate and the hyperbolic increase of the growth rate of global complexity in the last 4 billion years proceeded following the same law. We are dealing here with a perfect symmetry: (1) the rate of the universal (cosmic) complexity growth decreases when we move from the Big Bang Singularity, whereas the rate of the global complexity growth increase when we approach the 21 st century Singularity; (2) more specifically, as the time since the Big Bang Singularity increases n times, the universal (cosmic) complexity growth rate decreases the same n times, whereas when the time till the 21 st century Singularity decreased n times, the global complexity growth rate increased the same n times. A somehow more complex symmetry is observed as regards the interaction between energy dynamics and complexity growth within both processes. The implications of the symmetry of both patterns are discussed.
... Table 3 compares another set of estimates, for a longer period, over Europe as a whole. Livi Bacci [28] assumes a higher population and more vigorous growth in the early centuries, but the broad pattern of growth, decline and recovery is similar. Table 4 gives estimates of per capita income for the Roman world from a recent review [29] synthesizing earlier work. ...
... https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254240.t002 Table 3. Population estimates for Europe (millions).McEvedy and Jones[25], Livi Bacci[28].https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254240.t003Table 4. Per capita income for the Roman world, by European region. ...
“Barbarism” is perhaps best understood as a recurring syndrome among peripheral societies in response to the threats and opportunities presented by more developed neighbors. This article develops a mathematical model of barbarigenesis—the formation of “barbarian” societies adjacent to more complex societies—and its consequences, and applies the model to the case of Europe in the first millennium CE. A starting point is a game (developed by Hirshleifer) in which two players allocate their resources either to producing wealth or to fighting over wealth. The paradoxical result is that a richer and potentially more powerful player may lose out to a poorer player, because the opportunity cost of fighting is greater for the former. In a more elaborate spatial model with many players, the outcome is a wealth-power mismatch: central regions have comparatively more wealth than power, peripheral regions have comparatively more power than wealth. In a model of historical dynamics, a wealth-power mismatch generates a long-lasting decline in social complexity, sweeping from more to less developed regions, until wealth and power come to be more closely aligned. This article reviews how well this model fits the historical record of late Antiquity and the early Middle Ages in Europe both quantitatively and qualitatively. The article also considers some of the history left out of the model, and why the model doesn’t apply to the modern world.
... This approach is justified from an evolutionary perspective if a population has experienced a systematic improvement or deterioration in survival conditions in a specific period during which cross-generational differences in ecological patterns could be observed [16]. In the European context, an ideal investigation period is from the seventeenth to the early twentieth centuries, when agriculture, industry, medicine, public health, and other sectors were making revolutionary-scale progress [39]. Using genealogical data from the British aristocracy, Westendorp and Kirkwood [4] found that the costs of reproduction on maternal longevity were higher for women born between 1500 and 1700 than for women born between 1701 and 1875. ...
... Life history theories argue that the fertility effect on longevity depends largely on individuals' survival environment: the "trade-offs" should be more prominent under constrained survival conditions [14,15,19,35]. In European history, the improvement of material conditions since the seventeenth century has largely lifted the material constraints on what humans need for both parenting and survival [39]. These external changes may "shift the optimal balance that was [once] established through natural selection under previous conditions" [19]. ...
The evolution theory of ageing predicts that reproduction comes with long-term costs of survival. However, empirical studies in human species report mixed findings of the relationship between fertility and longevity, which varies by populations, time periods, and individual characteristics. One explanation underscores that changes in survival conditions over historical periods can moderate the negative effect of human fertility on longevity. This study investigates the fertility-longevity relationship in Europe during a period of rapid modernisation (seventeenth to twentieth centuries) and emphasises the dynamics across generations. Using a crowdsourced genealogy dataset from the FamiLinx project, our sample consists of 81,924 women and 103,642 men born between 1601 and 1910 across 16 European countries. Results from multilevel analyses show that higher fertility has a significantly negative effect on longevity. For both women and men, the negative effects are stronger among the older cohorts and have reduced over time. Moreover, we find similar trends in the dynamic associations between fertility and longevity across four geographical regions in Europe. Findings and limitations of this study call for further investigations into the historical dynamics of multiple mechanisms behind the human evolution of ageing.
... Transportation cost of desalinated water for different cities [9]. Taking into account that about 66% of the global urban population lives in urban centers bordering the ocean [14,16,24], the potential implementation of seawater desalination plants is therefore especially significant. However, it may not be a viable solution for water-stressed regions that are located a long distance from the coast or at a high altitude [9,24]. ...
... Taking into account that about 66% of the global urban population lives in urban centers bordering the ocean [14,16,24], the potential implementation of seawater desalination plants is therefore especially significant. However, it may not be a viable solution for water-stressed regions that are located a long distance from the coast or at a high altitude [9,24]. The reuse of municipal wastewater could be a viable alternative to address water scarcity for these cases [6,14,25]. ...
Water scarcity is becoming a global challenge to attempts to narrow the water demand–supply gap. To overcome this problem, it is sensible to consider alternative technologies that can exploit non-conventional water resources. The choice of such technologies should be, however, carefully analyzed, because any choice might be unfeasible from an economic point of view. In this work, a methodology to select the most appropriate non-conventional water resource, out of municipal wastewater and seawater, was proposed. Specifically, we attempted to determine which alternative provides cheaper water supply and production costs for domestic uses, depending on the wastewater treatment system used and the water plant capacity. The production of water under three scenarios was analyzed: (i) a city that has a conventional wastewater treatment plant (WWTP); (ii) a city that uses primary treatment and submarine outfalls to treat municipal wastewater; (iii) seawater desalination. The proposed methodology was tested in Chilean cities that are located in areas where water is a scarce resource. The results showed that the reuse of municipal wastewater represents a cost-competitive alternative to seawater desalination, mainly when municipal wastewater is treated in a conventional WWTP and when water flow demand is higher than 1500 m³/d. In contrast, seawater desalination becomes more profitable than wastewater reuse when the treatment of municipal wastewater is based on the use of submarine outfalls. This study provides a useful economic tool for promoting municipal wastewater reuse as a non-conventional water source for supplying water to cities that suffer from water scarcity in Chile and in similar areas of the world.
... 10,000-8,000 years BCE), when the first permanent human settlements appeared, we have evidence that epidemics became a recurring feature of human life. And from the very beginning, they must have had important consequences, which we have difficulty in observing directly for prehistorical societiesbut it can be demonstrated that, in these small-scale societies, a serious epidemic might easily have led to the extinction, or at least to the dispersion, of recently settled human groups (Livi-Bacci 2017). When written documentation begins to appear, we immediately get accounts of terrible epidemics, from the "Plague of Athens" of 431-426 BCE (whose pathogen remains the object of debate) to "Antonine Plague" of 160-180 CE (probably caused by smallpox) and the "Plague of Cyprian" of 249-270 (probably caused by some sort of hemorrhagic fever). ...
... Relatedly, demographers have always been concerned about data quality, careful measurement, sound methodologies, and precision-a feature which is unique to the field yet, if brought to an excess, may hinder theory-generating efforts. In 1984, Livi-Bacci stressed this aspect, highlighting the risk that demography could remain "a technique rather than a science" (Livi-Bacci, 1984). Second, the field is becoming even more interdisciplinary-an aspect that we see as beneficial-yet some scholars may worry that too much interdisciplinarity may weaken what is unique about demography, i.e., its demography "core." ...
This essay provides a series of reflections on the current state of demography as seen by four early-career researchers who are actively engaged in aspects of the discipline as varied as research, teaching, mentorship, data collection efforts, policy making, and policy advising. Despite some claims that the discipline is weakening, we showcase the great potential of the field and outline promising pathways and novel directions for the future. In so doing, we critically assess recent innovations in data quality and availability, stressing the need to “revolutionize” the way that demographic methods are taught by adopting a viewpoint that more closely reflects the rapidly changing, or “fast,” nature of global social phenomena such as conflict-related displacements, environmental disasters, migration streams, pandemics, and evolving population policies. We conclude by discussing the relevance of careful demographic analyses for policy making, stressing three main points: (i) the need to make demography more visible and understandable to the public eye; (ii) the importance of engaging and co-creating with local communities to “break” the academic bubble; and (iii) the urge to counteract the spread of misinformation—a phenomenon that has become even more visible in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak.
... Demographical Transition (DT) is a continual change of population indicators from initially stationary population characterized by high mortality and fertility rates to lower fertility and mortality rates (Bacci, 2017).The term demographic transition refers to the gradual shift in fertility and mortality from high and sharply fluctuating levels to low and relatively stable ones (Goldstein, Wolfgang & Sergei, 2003;Lutz, Brian, &Sergei, 2003). The demographic transition theory is a model describing the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates that occur as part of the economic development of a country (Notestein, 1950). ...
Since the 1990s, Ethiopia has been experiencing demographic transition. The changes were the result of the country's effort in reducing fertility and mortality rates through implementing socioeconomic development programs. The demographic dividend is the economic benefit that results from improved reproductive health, a decline in fertility, and a subsequent shift in population age structure. This study explored the demographic transition and demographic dividend conditions from 1990 to 1916 in Ethiopia. In this research, secondary data from different sources such as research findings, policy documents, development plan and program reports, and analyses of censuses and surveys data were used to evaluate the demographic changes and demographic dividends. Ethiopia's focus on children, maternal health and family planning has brought impressive results. Modern contraceptive use among women of 15-49 years old rose from 4 percent in 1990 to 35 percent in 2016.These changes have led to a total fertility decline from 7.7 children in 1990 to 4.6 children in 2016. Life expectancy at birth rose from 46 years old in 1990 to 63 years in 2016. A range of legal, policy and institutional frameworks have been developed and implemented on gender equity, equality, girls' education, reproductive health issues and the empowerment of women. Hence, further efforts have to be made to reduce the population growth rate and total fertility and to improve the living conditions of the society. This study revealed the nature of population change in Ethiopia and future actions that need to be taken to harmonize the change in economic development and population change.
... The past 2 decades have also witnessed growing interdisciplinary interest in the compilation of comprehensive socioeconomic statistics on societies across the globe, and throughout history (often in online databases) (see e.g., Akbari et al., 2020;Baumard et al., 2015;Becker et al., 2020;Falk et al., 2018;Goldewijk et al., 2010;Grim et al., 2018;Livi-Bacci, 2017;Maddison, 2006;Muthukrishna et al., 2021;Paldam & Gundlach, 2013;Sanderson & Roberts, 2008;Thomson et al., 2018;Turchin & Hoyer, 2020;Watts et al., 2015;Whitehouse et al., 2019; also see Diamond, 1997;Reich, 2018). Comprehensive statistics enable scholars to describe long-term socioeconomic trends extending back many thousands of years. ...
The past 3 decades have witnessed growing efforts to rethink areas of inquiry traditionally dominated by the humanities. One such area is religion, and, by extension, “Islamic studies” (i.e., the study of Islam and Muslim societies). Recent efforts to rethink religion and Islamic studies draw insights from cognitive science, and also frequently employ quantitative approaches. Such approaches make use of psychological statistics, socioeconomic statistics, and statistical data extracted from massive collections of digitized cultural artifacts (e.g., texts, photos, sound recordings). These types of statistical data make it possible to quantitively describe long‐term global psychological, socioeconomic, and cultural trends; explain how these trends relate to one another; and explain how these trends relate to Muslim societies. This article introduces the emerging lines of research mentioned above. Furthermore, it suggests that these lines of research open the way for a new more ambitious and more interdisciplinary Islamic studies – one which builds on valuable forms of humanities expertise while integrating the best insights from non‐humanities fields.
... On the other, it also shows how this universe of possibilities is shifting. In other words, this conceptualization recognises that family configurations are the by-product of a long history of cultural development, and therefore, there is some momentum favouring their stability(Livi Bacci, 1992). Meanwhile, family configurations vary but in a limited set of aspects and within the boundaries of the structural conditions, potentially as a consequence of economic and demographic development (rising HDI and life expectancy, for example). ...
Using 254 Demographic and Health Surveys from 75 low- and middle-income countries, this study shows how the joint examination of family characteristics across rural and urban areas provides new insights for understanding global family change. We operationalise this approach by building family configurations: a set of interrelated features that describe different patterns of family formation and structure. These features include partnership (marriage/unions) regimes and their stability, gender relations, household composition and reproduction. Factorial and clustering techniques allow us to summarise these family features into three factorial axes and six discrete family configurations. We provide an in-depth description of these configurations, their spatial distribution and their changes over time. Global family change is uneven because it emerges from complex interplays between the relative steadiness of longstanding arrangements for forming families and organising gender relations, and the rapidly changing dynamics observed in the realms of fertility, contraception, and timing of family formation.
... One of the lowering mechanisms that lessens the effect of education on environmental degradation by decreasing the usage of resources is a low population growth rate. A decrease in population results in a decrease in resource consumption (Livi-Bacci, 1997). It was found that in countries where the education level increased, the population ratio declined. ...
Environmental degradation, which became evident after the Industrial Revolution, is one of the most important problems to be solved in the twenty-first century. The need for energy in the production process has caused the rapid use of carbon stores, and global warming has been experienced with the increase in carbon emissions. Due to the fact that global warming has reached a level that threatens human life and negatively affects the quality of life, many studies have been carried out to find ways of preventing the decrease in the life quality caused by environmental degradation. The policies developed by politicians to reduce this degradation have been insufficient, and the increase in environmental degradation has continued. The increase in needs with the increasing population, more consume more happiness and costly access to clean energy sources are the reasons for the failure of these policies. Failures of policies implemented on a macro-scale have led to searches for different policies. In this process, education-oriented policies came to the fore. Education has an important role in production, technological progress, and awareness about the environment, which are determinants of environmental degradation. Although the education is an important policy tool to be used against environmental degradation in the future, studies on the effects of education on the environment are limited and theoretical. Hence, the purpose of this research was to investigate empirically whether education is an important policy tool for addressing environmental quality in developing countries. To this end, the causal relationship between education and CO2 emissions for 14 developing countries from 1990 to 2017 was explored using the de Kónya method (Econ Modell 23(6):978–992, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008). This method uses an augmented panel non-causality procedure that controls cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. The results showed that there is a causality relation of education to CO2 emissions in Chile and Poland, countries with the highest education and income levels among the emerging nations. Also, the corrective effect of income level expressed in EKC on the environment can be realized at lower income levels thanks to education. In this respect, education policy can be seen as an important tool in preventing environmental degradation, particularly in developing countries.
... Migration as the changing one's place of living is an objective and inevitable process: people have always been leaving familiar places to find better life and new homes. They could be doing this voluntarily or by force -but surely not without reasons; they were mostly under the pressure of some specific, mostly external circumstances such as war, natural disaster, ecological change, deficiency of food, energy, or raw material resources and the search for them, etc. (Livi-Bacci, 2001;Aleshkovski, 2016;UN, 2013). ...
... Although Africa has approximately 15% of the world's population, 8 trials are conducted in Africa. 9 A review of the National Institutes of Health trial repository ClinicalTrials.gov 10 shows that 736 clinical trials are conducted in Africa, out of which only 26 are cancer-related interventional trials and only six of these trials are conducted in countries with predominantly Black patients. ...
Cancer is now a formidable health care burden in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to lifestyle westernization and longer life expectancy. The exponential increase in cancer incidence coupled with high mortality rate is not comparable with that seen in westernized countries. To address global cancer disparity, globalization of cancer clinical trials to involve sub-Saharan Africa can serve as a platform where innovative targeted therapies can be made available to patients in the environ. In the 2019 African Organization for Research and Training in Cancer (AORTIC) conference held at Maputo, Mozambique, a group of clinical trialists spanning across multiple continents highlighted the opportunities in Africa for the conduct of cancer clinical trials. The secondary purpose of the meeting was to address the belief that Africa was incapable of conducting interventional cancer trials but showed the in-continent strengths, such as available capacities, trained local clinical trialists with clinical trial experiences, clinical trial consortia, local capabilities, mapping out logistics, ethical consideration, political will, real-time benefits of clinical trials to clinical practice, and future directions for trials.
... Migration as the changing one's place of living is an objective and inevitable process: people have always been leaving familiar places to find better life and new homes. They could be doing this voluntarily or by force -but surely not without reasons; they were mostly under the pressure of some specific, mostly external circumstances such as war, natural disaster, ecological change, deficiency of food, energy, or raw material resources and the search for them, etc. (Livi-Bacci, 2001;Aleshkovski, 2016;UN, 2013). ...
... This study remains the most comprehensive source of historical data on fertility across European regions in the 19 th and early 20 th century, documenting a dramatic decline of fertility in society after society over the past two centuries. Europe had experienced fluctuations in overall fertility before (Livi-Bacci, 2001). However, in premodern times, fertility control took place mostly through marriage postponement, celibacy, and other forms of control that affect the probability of conception irrespective of the number of children already produced. ...
We investigate the determinants of the fertility decline in Europe from 1830 to 1970 using a newly constructed dataset of linguistic distances between European regions. The decline resulted from the gradual diffusion of new fertility behavior from French-speaking regions to the rest of Europe. Societies with higher education, lower infant mortality, higher urbanization, and higher population density had lower levels of fertility during the 19th and early 20th century. However, the fertility decline took place earlier in communities that were culturally closer to the French, while the fertility transition spread only later to societies that were more distant from the frontier. This is consistent with a process of social influence, whereby societies that were culturally closer to the French faced lower barriers to learning new information and adopting novel attitudes regarding fertility control.
... This data set is a combination of different historic databases to generate an internally consistent spatial population data set over a long time series. It is based among others on historical data from LiviBacci (2007),Maddison (2001),McEvedy & Jones (1978), Populstat(Lahmeyer, 2004), and country-specific local sources(Klein Goldewijk et al., 2017). 49 In a spatial weighting procedure based on population density from the Landscan(2006)satellite, historic maps of total, urban, and population counts are then generated(Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011). ...
This dissertation contains four separate chapters. CHAPTER 1 This chapter examines the current, lagged, and indirect effects of tropical cyclones on annual sectoral growth worldwide. The main explanatory variable is a new damage measure for local tropical cyclone intensity based on meteorological data weighted for individual sectoral exposure, which is included in a panel analysis for a maximum of 205 countries over the 1970–2015 period. I find a significantly negative influence of tropical cyclones on two sector aggregates including agriculture, as well as trade and tourism. In subsequent years, tropical cyclones negatively affect the majority of all sectors. However, the Input-Output analysis shows that production processes are sticky and indirect economic effects are limited. CHAPTER 2 People in low-lying coastal areas live under the potentially great threat of damage due to coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Understanding how coastal population settlements react to such events is of high importance for society in order to consider future potential adaptation strategies and policies. In this study, we generate a new global hydrological data set on storm surge damage for the period 1850–2010. By combining this new data set with spatial data on human populations at a resolution of 10 km, we analyze the influence of storm surge damage on the rural, urban, and total population in low elevation coastal zones. We find that 8% of the global coastal population moved away per decade over the 1950–2010 period as a consequence of storm surges, on average. It is the urban population where we find the largest reductions (-15%). We show that the exposed coastal population has adapted over time and started to reduce its exposure in recent decades. This finding applies to most regions, with the exceptions of North America, Oceania, and Western Asia. CHAPTER 3 Allocation decisions are vulnerable to political influence, but little is known about when politicians can use their discretion to pursue their strategic goals. We show the nonlinearity of political favoritism in an exogenous framework of U.S. disaster relief. Based on a simple theoretical model, we demonstrate that political biases are most pronounced when the need for a disaster declaration is ambiguous. Exploiting the spatiotemporal randomness of all hurricane strikes in the United States from 1965–2018, we find that presidents favor areas governed by their fellow party members when allocating disaster declarations. Our nonlinear estimations reveal that political influence varies immensely with respect to storm intensity. The alignment bias for medium-strength hurricanes exceeds standard linear estimates eightfold. CHAPTER 4 We examine the design and implementation of the United Nations Flash Appeal triggered in response to the highly destructive 2015 Nepal earthquake. We consider how local need and various distortions affect the proposed project number, the proposed financial amount, and the subsequent funding decision by aid donors. Specifically, we investigate the extent to which the allocation of this humanitarian assistance follows municipalities’ affectedness and their physical and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. We then analyze potential ethnic, religious, and political distortions. Our results show that aid allocation is associated with geophysical estimates of the earthquake damage. Controlled for disaster impact, however, aid allocation shows little regard for the specific socioeconomic and physical vulnerabilities. It is also worrisome that the allocation of the flash appeal commitments favors municipalities dominated by higher castes and disadvantages those with a greater distance to the Nepali capital Kathmandu.
... The basis for the state-level population data is the United Nations World Populations Prospects (2008 Revision) for the 1950-2017 period. The pre-1950 historical estimates were largely taken from the first Atlas of World Population History (McEvedyet al., 1978),(Livi-Bacci, 2006), and(Maddison, 2006).(Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011) supplemented these sources with the sub-national population numbers of Populstat(Lahmeyer, personal communication, 2004) and many other country-specific sources. ...
... Unlike economic arguments, most environmental arguments are related to the size of the global population (and not the effect of age structure), as human impact is largely proportional to the number of people (Bohn & Stuart, 2015;Ehrlich & Holdren, 1971). There is a clear consensus that a future larger population will be associated with negative environmental externalities, which may affect both economic affluence and non-material resources and environmental quality (Bongaarts & O'Neill, 2018;Cohen, 1996;Holdren & Ehrlich, 1974;Keyfitz, 1991;Lee, 1987;Livi-Bacci, 2007). The so-called 'IPAT' relationship, used to describe the impact of humans on the environment, shows the linear impact of increasing population size on the environmental impact of humans (Ehrlich & Holdren, 1971). ...
The world is rapidly converging towards lower fertility: in 2020, countries with a total fertility rate of less than 2.25 will encompass more than three-quarters of the world population. This implies that the determinants of childbearing will be increasingly similar in high-income and middle-income regions of the world. In this article, I discuss economic demography in relation to levels of childbearing. How do different societies distribute resources across the life course and between generations, and to what extent is this done through governmental transfers? The extent of such transfers varies considerably between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries, which I explored through data from the National Transfers Account project. I argue that in low-fertility societies, the extent to which the costs of childrearing are socialised is important for fertility. The extent to which childrearing is socialised will be an important determinant of future fertility levels and, if used as a population policy, offers a straightforward pathway to achieve a desirable population size. As the global fertility decline continues, such policies will be relevant to most societies and a tool for governments to affect fertility levels across many contexts.
... In some areas of Eurasia this trend seems to have started to get reversed more than 1,000 years ago (and not only in Europe -in the 18 th century the highest life expectancy within the high civilization belt seems to have already been attested in Japan [Mel'jantsev 1996: 145]). However, a radical reversal of the above-mentioned trend was only achieved in the 19 th and 20 th centuries (see e.g., Caldwell 2006;Livi-Bacci 2012). It seems necessary to emphasize that it was achieved to a considerable extent through a virtual unconscious artificial imitation of many fundamental characteristics and life conditions of the Paleolithic hunter-gatherers. ...
The continuity of social life observed between non-human primates and humans is fundamental for understanding the formation of human society in the course of evolution as well as its further social evolution. This paper aims specifically at studying dominance styles and variability of social relationships in non-human primates and humans. The statistical analysis of our primatological database has shown that the egalitarian type of social organization in primates is associated with the following traits: 1) absence or low incidence of submission demonstration; 2) permissiveness of non-subordinate behavior towards dominants; 3) low level of male leadership power (i.e., the situation when group members systematically dispute the leader); 4) permissiveness on feeding sites; 5) low intensity of contact aggression; 6) low risk of injury; 7) low risk of severe injury; 8) high level of bidirectional aggression; 9) low level of redirected aggression; 10) low level of female-female intergroup aggression; 11) low level of male-male intergroup aggression; 12) presence of formal biting ; 13) support in aggression on the side of victims rather than aggressor; 14) high level of affiliative support; 15) low level of aggressive support; 16) high level of reconciliation after conflict; 17) low kin preferences in reconciliation ; 18) low or absent kin preferences in affiliation; 19) high probability of female carrying other females infants (i.e., permissiveness in access to in-Social Relationships in Non-Human and Human Primates 70 fants for other females, non-kin included); 20) low or absent kin effect on spatial distribution in feeding; 21) presence of social play between males; 22) high level of male affiliative interaction with juveniles; 23) high level of male-male tolerance (and late emigration of adolescent males in case of female phylopat-ric species); 24) high level of grooming between males; 25) high level of grooming between non-kin females; 26) absence of connection between grooming received and dominant status; 27) high female choice of reproductive partner ; 28) high female status; 29) different degrees of egalitarianism within males vs. females (in some cases); 30) presence of male attachments with anes-trus females; 31) absence of seasonal prevalence of reproduction. The non-egalitarian primate social systems are characterized generally by the same set of parameters with opposite values. Our further statistical tests have shown that the 'primate' correlation matrix for the egalitarian vs. non-egalitarian characteristics, while completely valid for the simple hunter-gatherer cultures, almost disintegrated for the medium-range societies but resurfaced again among the most complex cultures.
... His discourse not only expresses analytical aspects of the modernization theory, but also the ideological background of his position, which is expressed in the ideological force of various categories used (efficiency, order, former regime, among others) that allow him to sustain the superiority of a modern demographic regime above a traditional one, superiority based on an increased rationality in the use of demographic resources. For a broader and more complete review of these author's theses, see Livi Bacci (2012). ...
... Ageing results from a complex set of factors, which are welldocumented at both national and international levels (Nazareth, 1988, Leston Bandeira et al., 2014, Rosa, 1993, Ferreira Rodrigues, 2008, Livi-Bacci, 2017, Notestein, 1945). At the most basic level and from a strictly demographic point of view, the ageing process is governed by three elements: falling birth rates, increasing longevity, and young adult out-migrations. ...
In this work we aim to review empirical evidences using data for Acacia longifolia to analyze coastal systems invasibility, under three synthetic steps: (i) explaining the influence of geographic conditions on invasibility levels at large spatial scales; (ii) correlating this knowledge with the dynamics of A. longifolia invasiveness in temperate regions; (iii) seeking to understand the coastline invasibility phenomenon, using the A. longifolia as an empirical example of invasive species. We examine multiple lines of evidence to try to untangle these issues, about how determinant is ecological similarity between different ranges to explain the susceptibility to invasion by A. longifolia.
... Ageing results from a complex set of factors, which are welldocumented at both national and international levels (Nazareth, 1988, Leston Bandeira et al., 2014, Rosa, 1993, Ferreira Rodrigues, 2008, Livi-Bacci, 2017, Notestein, 1945). At the most basic level and from a strictly demographic point of view, the ageing process is governed by three elements: falling birth rates, increasing longevity, and young adult out-migrations. ...
The Special Issue of the Rendezvous, “Portugal: Territory, Society and Nature”, is the initiative of an interdisciplinary collaboration that is critically examining the research, policy, and practices which currently underpin geography and spatial planning in Portugal. On this theme, this Special Issue has contributions
that critically assess the following proposition statements:
Concepts that shape how geography is understood and discussed within any society Narratives that shape how the problem of geography is framed and communicated Science that underpins geography, and critical considerations of the role of science in supporting action and change Governance processes of interaction and decision-making Systems, approaches and framings that conceptualize feedbacks and
interconnections between social, biophysical, climate, and institutional problems from local to global scales Studies of future scenarios that consider ways of supporting decision-making and implications of long-term future changes. We have contributions from several areas of geography research and
practice with broader disciplinary perspectives in the social and biophysical sciences and humanities. As a result, this special issue epitomizes results of recent studies and discusses long-standing questions in diverse areas of geography, paying special attention to the interconnectedness of: (1) human geography studies: human modifications and territorial planning, teaching, population and tourism migration; (2) physical geography and developmental ecology constraints, that is, the notion of ‘nature conservation’. The editors have brought together a solid and productive cast
of researchers with singular focus, presenting at the same time the diversities and similarities in the approaches to the geography studies.
... There has been a growth in the world's population of 1.6 billion people in the early 20th century. In 2005, this trend grew dramatically to 6.5 billion [1,2]. The increasing population of the world has contributed to an international concern of increased energy demand for day-to-day market administration, organization and management. ...
Global population growth has boosted world energy demand. As a developing nation, Malaysia urgently needs a large amount of energy to drive progress and technologies to ensure its convenience. Unfortunately, Malaysia's conventional power production is heavily dependent on natural gas, coal, and oil. As a result, many environmental issues have arisen that harm the region. Besides, large transmission towers' consumption to supply electricity has resulted in high construction and maintenance costs, and problems emerging in uneven areas such as highlands and mountains. Fuel cells have been recognized as an alternative power generation device that simultaneously addresses Malaysia's energy supply and dramatically reduces costs. This article addressed the electricity scenario in Malaysia to demonstrate that fuel cells are a very strong solution as alternative renewable energy to meet the energy demand in this country. The technology in Malaysia for fuel cell-based portable devices and residential energy resources has been discussed as the most advantageous application to be introduced for residential applications.
... Modern society provides high quality life standards in developed countries while seeking to improve the conditions of developing areas [4]. At the same time, multiple and complex historical factors have contributed to human population growth [11]. Spreading welfare at large scale relies on the availability of raw materials needed to produce the goods and services supporting society (e.g. ...
Long-term availability of minerals and industrial materials is a necessary condition for sustainable development as they are the constituents of any manufacturing product. In particular, technologies with increasing demand such as GPUs and photovoltaic panels are made of critical raw materials. To enhance the efficiency of material management, in this paper we make three main contributions: first, we identify in the literature an emerging computer-vision-enabled material monitoring technology which we call Material Measurement Unit (MMU); second, we provide a survey of works relevant to the development of MMUs; third, we describe a material stock monitoring sensor network deploying multiple MMUs.
... resulting in improved survivorship. The general properties of this transition include declining mortality rates that were not immediately accompanied by reductions in the average number of children per woman, resulting in population growth rates between 1 and 2% during the time period in question (Livi-Bacci, 2007). Population growth was especially pronounced when, during this transition, the birth and death rates were imbalanced, a feature that is also believed to have characterized the Neolithic Demographic Transition (Bocquet-Appel, 2002Gage & DeWitte, 2009). ...
Objectives
Since its inception, skeletally based paleodemographic research has emphasized the utility of biocultural models for interpreting the dynamic relationship between the sociocultural and ecological forces accompanying demographic transitions and shaping populations' health and well‐being. While the demographic transition associated with the Neolithic Revolution has been a common focus in bioarcheology, the present study analyzes human skeletal remains from a large 19th century cemetery in central Indiana to examine population dynamics during the second demographic transition, a period generally characterized by decreasing fertility rates and improvements in life expectancy. This study demonstrates the potential to methodologically identify regional variations in the timing and interactions between broad‐scale socioeconomic changes and technological advancements that characterized the time period through observed changes in survivorship and fertility based on age‐at‐death distributions.
Materials and methods
This study uses three temporally distinct samples (AD 1827–1869; 1870–1889; 1890–1935) from the Bethel Cemetery (n = 503). Kaplan–Meier survival analyses with a log‐ rank tests are utilized to evaluate survivorship and mortality over time. Next, Cox proportional hazard analyses are employed to examine the interaction between sex and time as covariates. Finally, the D0–14/D ratio is applied to estimate fertility for each of the three temporally bounded cohorts.
Results
The Kaplan–Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard modeling revealed statistically significant differences in survivorship between the three time periods. Age‐specific mortality rates are reduced among adult female and male age classes in this rural community over the course of the 19th and early 20th centuries, resulting in the increasing life expectancies associated with the second demographic transition. While mortality in early adulthood was common during the first time period and decreases thereafter, sex was not identified as a meaningful covariate. The proportion of juveniles in the three temporal samples indicate that fertility rates were higher than national averages for the better part of the 19th century and subsequently declined around the turn of 20th century for this community.
Conclusions
The results indicate temporal differences between the three periods, demonstrating increased survivorship and decreased mortality and fertility over time. These findings corroborate two key features of the second demographic transition characterized by the move from high rates of both fertility and mortality to reduced rates and a general easing of demographic pressures. The observed trends likely reflect improvements in health, coinciding the industrial advance and economic development within and around Indianapolis. While the socioeconomic factors characterizing the Industrial Revolution drove demographic shifts that parallel an equally important epidemiological transition, potential regional differences are discussed to highlight variability in the timing of demographic transitions. The paleodemographic methods utilized in this study demonstrate improved accuracy and efficacy, which ultimately advances researchers' potential to disentangle population‐specific socioeconomic factors that may contribute to asymmetrical experiences of health and mortality.
... Unlike economic arguments, most environmental arguments are related to the size of the global population (and not the effect of age structure), as human impact is largely proportional to the number of people (Bohn & Stuart, 2015;Ehrlich & Holdren, 1971). There is a clear consensus that a future larger population will be associated with negative environmental externalities, which may affect both economic affluence and non-material resources and environmental quality (Bongaarts & O'Neill, 2018;Cohen, 1996;Holdren & Ehrlich, 1974;Keyfitz, 1991;Lee, 1987;Livi-Bacci, 2007). The so-called "IPAT" relationship, used to describe the impact of humans on the environment, shows the linear impact of increasing population size on the environmental impact of humans (Ehrlich & Holdren, 1971). ...
Published as http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2021.1915480 (open access)
... Greater availability of food can also lead to an increase in mortality which can be balanced by greater fertility(Livi-Bacci 2017).innovations in agriculture and population growth in friuli ... ...
Selecting genotypes tolerant to high temperatures is an important measure for agricultural maintenance and production in climate change scenarios. Thus, this study aimed to select cowpea genotypes tolerant to increased air temperature. A total of 20 cowpea genotypes were used, cultivated under temperature regimes of 20–26–33 °C and 24.8–30.8–37.8 °C in a completely randomized experimental design under a 2 × 20 factorial scheme (temperature regimes × genotypes). The BRS Inhuma, Bico-de-Ouro-17-45, BRS Guariba, and BRS Imponente genotypes did not show significant differences in the analyzed physiological responses to the increase in air temperature. The BRS Inhuma, Bico-de-Oouro-17-19, Bico-de-Ouro-17-44, Bico-de-Ouro-17-45, BRS Guariba, and BRS Imponente genotypes showed increased temperature tolerance as thermal stress did not affect production. The Pingo-de-Ouro-17-48, MNC00-595F-27, MNC06-895E-1, and MNC09-981B-2 genotypes reduced water efficiency by −26.85, −25.19, −40.04, and −60.37%, respectively, due to the increase in temperature. The results obtained in this work represent a pre-selection of genotypes that are tolerant to high temperatures, with the BRS Inhuma, Bico-de-Ouro-17-45, BRS Guariba, and BRS Imponente genotypes indicated as tolerant to increased temperatures based on the interaction of physiological and productive responses. There is an urgent need to select cowpea genotypes tolerant to increased temperature to maintain production in climate change scenarios and ensure agricultural systems’ sustainability and food security.
What did independence mean during the age of empires? How did independent governments balance different interests when they made policies about trade, money and access to foreign capital? Sovereignty without Power tells the story of Liberia, one of the few African countries to maintain independence through the colonial period. Established in 1822 as a colony for freed slaves from the United States, Liberia's history illustrates how the government's efforts to exercise its economic sovereignty and engage with the global economy shaped Liberia's economic and political development over the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Drawing together a wide range of archival sources, Leigh A. Gardner presents the first quantitative estimates of Liberian's economic performance and uses these to compare it to its colonized neighbors and other independent countries. Liberia's history anticipated challenges still faced by developing countries today, and offers a new perspective on the role of power and power relationships in shaping Africa's economic history.
If economists have largely failed to predict or prevent the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the more disastrous economic collapse associated with the pandemic of 2020, what else is the profession missing? This is the question that motivates this survey. Specifically, we want to highlight four catastrophic risks – i.e., risks that can potentially result in global catastrophes of a much larger magnitude than either of the 2008 or 2020 events. The four risks we examine here are: Space weather and solar flares, super-volcanic eruptions, high-mortality pandemics, and misaligned artificial intelligence. All four have a non-trivial probability of occurring and all four can lead to a catastrophe, possibly not very different from human extinction. Inevitably, and fortunately, these catastrophic events have not yet occurred, so the literature investigating them is by necessity more speculative and less grounded in empirical observations. Nevertheless, that does not make these risks any less real. This survey is motivated by the belief that economists can and should be thinking about these risks more systematically, so that we can devise the appropriate ways to prevent them or ameliorate their potential impacts.
Scientific ideas on the human population tend to be rooted in a “slow demography” paradigm, which emphasizes an inertial, predictable, self-contained view of population dynamics, mostly dependent on fertility and mortality. Yet, demography can also move fast. At the country level, it is crucial to empirically assess how fast demography moves by taking migratory movements into account, in addition to fertility and mortality. We discuss these ideas and present new estimates of the speed of population change, that is, country-level population turnover rates, as well as the share of turnover due to migration, for all countries in the world with available data between 1990 and 2020. Population turnover is inversely related to population size and development, and migratory movements tend to become important factors in shaping demography for both small and highly developed countries. Longitudinally, we analyze annual turnover data for Italy and Germany, documenting the changing speed of population change over time and its determinants. Accepting the “fast and slow” demography perspective has several implications for science and policy, which we discuss.
Climate change and its impact on smallholder agriculture is a development challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. Although adaptation is central to climate change response, research on climate change finance, particularly among smallholder farmers is not well understood. Thus, the aim of this paper is to explore how smallholder farmers finance innovations in Sustainable Agricultural Intensification (SAI) for climate change adaptation in Northwestern Ghana. The study employed a mixed method approach, involving focus group discussions, key informant interviews, household case studies and interview of household heads. The results showed that smallholder farmers draw on multiple sources of funding linked to a complex household production system to finance SAI practices. The main source of funding is income from sale of crops and livestock. This is complemented with loans from Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) and wages from casual labour services. The sources of income were found to be significantly (P<0.05) associated with sex of household head and farm sizes. From the results, we assert that smallholder farmers' sources of income for SAI activities are not only unsustainable but limited in amount. The study advocates for promotion of existing endogenous approaches to funding SAI activities.
Climate change and its impact on smallholder agriculture is a development challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. Although adaptation is central to climate change response, research on climate change finance, particularly among smallholder farmers is not well understood. Thus, the aim of this paper is to explore how smallholder farmers finance innovations in Sustainable Agricultural Intensification (SAI) for climate change adaptation in Northwestern Ghana. The study employed a mixed method approach, involving focus group discussions, key informant interviews, household case studies and interview of household heads. The results showed that smallholder farmers draw on multiple sources of funding linked to a complex household production system to finance SAI practices. The main source of funding is income from sale of crops and livestock. This is complemented with loans from Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) and wages from casual labour services. The sources of income were found to be significantly (P<0.05) associated with sex of household head and farm sizes. From the results, we assert that smallholder farmers' sources of income for SAI activities are not only unsustainable but limited in amount. The study advocates for promotion of existing endogenous approaches to funding SAI activities.
The main results of the research on the economic development of Europe, which is presented here, can be divided into three parts. The first is to clarify the evolutionary and successive economic development of Europe, which is the basis for understanding contemporary regional geographical analysis of Europe. This development began with laissez- faire in the 19th century, which was then (until the middle of the 20th century) replaced by the growth of a regulated market and economic dirigisme. After the Second World War, two economic systems developed in parallel, the central planning system in the East and the mixed economy in the West. The common denominator of both designs was the idea of the welfare state, which was replaced by neoliberalism in the West during the 1970s, and then by economies from the East, only two decades later. The second set of results focuses on the regional economy, a scientific field of economics that does not study the regional distribution of the economy but includes the dimension of space and location problems in the analysis of market functioning. Therefore, the permeation of geography and economics as the primary subject of research is best expressed through this area. That is the space that geography tries to understand and describe.
This is the first book on climate change denial and lobbying that combines the ideology of denial and the role of anthropocentrism in the study of interest groups and communication strategy. Climate Change Denial and Public Relations: Strategic Communication and Interest Groups in Climate Inaction is a critical approach to climate change denial from a strategic communication perspective. The book aims to provide an in-depth analysis of how strategic communication by interest groups is contributing to climate change inaction. It does this from a multidisciplinary perspective that expands the usual approach of climate change denialism and introduces a critical reflection on the roots of the problem, including the ethics of the denialist ideology and the rhetoric and role of climate change advocacy. Topics addressed include the power of persuasive narratives and discourses constructed to support climate inaction by lobbies and think tanks, the dominant human supremacist view and the patriarchal roots of denialists and advocates of climate change alike, the knowledge coalitions of the climate think tank networks, the denial strategies related to climate change of the nuclear, oil, and agrifood lobbies, the role of public relations firms, the anthropocentric roots of public relations, taboo topics such as human overpopulation and meat-eating, and the technological myth. This unique volume is recommended reading for students and scholars of communication and public relations.
Families form the basis of society, and anthropologists have observed and characterised a wide range of family systems. This study developed a multi-level evolutionary model of pre-industrial agricultural societies to simulate the evolution of family systems and determine how each of them adapts to environmental conditions and forms a characteristic socio-economic structure. In the model, competing societies evolve, which themselves comprise multiple evolving families that grow through family labour. Each family has two strategy parameters: the time children leave the parental home and the distribution of inheritance among siblings. The evolution of these parameters demonstrates that four basic family systems emerge; families can become either nuclear or extended, and have either an equal or strongly biased inheritance distribution. Nuclear families in which children leave the parental home upon marriage emerge where land resources are sufficient, whereas extended families in which children staying at the parental home emerge where land resources are limited. Equal inheritance emerges where the amount of wealth required for a family to survive is large, whereas strongly biased inheritance emerges where the required wealth is small. Furthermore, the frequency of polygyny is low in the present model of agricultural societies, whereas it increases for the model of labour-extensive subsistence patterns other than agricultural societies. Analyses on the wealth distribution of families demonstrate a higher level of poverty among people in extended families, and that the accumulation of wealth is accelerated in families with strongly biased inheritance. By comparing wealth distributions in the model with historical data, family systems are associated with characteristic economic structures and then, modern social ideologies. Empirical data analyses using the cross-cultural ethnographic database verify the theoretical relationship between the environmental conditions, family systems, and socio-economic structures discussed in the model. The theoretical studies made possible by this simple constructive model, as presented here, will integrate the understandings of family systems in evolutionary anthropology, demography, and socioeconomic histories.
In this paper, I construct a growth model of the Great Divergence, which formalizes Pomeranz's (2000) hypothesis that the relief of land constraints in Europe caused divergence in economic growth between Europe and China since the 19th century. The model has agricultural and manufacturing sectors. The agricultural sector produces subsistence goods from land, intermediate goods made in the manufacturing sector, and labor. The manufacturing sector produces the goods from labor, and its productivity grows through learning-by-doing. Households make fertility decisions. In the model, a large exogenous positive shock in land supply makes the transition of the economy from the Malthusian state, in which all workers are engaged in agricultural production and per capita income is constant, to the non-Malthusian state, in which the share of workers engaging in manufacturing production gradually increases and per capita income grows at a roughly constant growth rate. The quantitative predictions of the model provide several insights on the cause of the Great Divergence.
Due to the intensification of the poultry sector, poultry manure is being produced in increasing quantities, and its on-site management is becoming a critical problem. Animal health problems can be solved by stricter the veterinary and environmental standards. The off-site coupled industrial chicken manure recycling technology (Hosoya compost tea) fundamentally affects the agricultural value of new organic-based products. Due to the limited information available on manure recycling technology-related microbiological changes, this was examined in this study. A pot experiment with a pepper test plant was set up, using two different soils (Arenosol, slightly humous Arenosol) and two different doses (irrigation once a week with 40 mL of compost tea: dose 1, D1; irrigation twice a week with 40 mL of compost tea: dose 2, D2) of compost tea. Compost tea raw materials, compost tea, and compost tea treated soils were tested. The products (granulated manure, compost tea) and their effects were characterized by the following parameters: aerobic bacterial count (log CFU/g), fluorescein diacetate activity (3′,6′-diacetylfluorescein, FDA, µg Fl/g soil), glucosidase enzyme activity (GlA; PNP/µmol/g), and identification of microorganisms in compost tea with matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Furthermore, we aimed to investigate how the microbiological indicators tested, and the effect of compost tea on the tested plant, could be interpreted. Based on our results, the microbiological characteristics of the treated soils showed an increase in enzyme activity, in the case of FDA an increase +0.26 μg Fl/g soil at D1, while the GlA increased +1.28 PNP/µmol/g with slightly humous Arenosol soil and increased +2.44 PNP/µmol/g at D1; and the aerobic bacterial count increased +0.15 log CFU/g at D2, +0.35 log CFU/g with slightly humous Arenosol and +0.85 log CFU/g at W8. MALDI-TOF MS results showed that the dominant bacterial genera analyzed were Bacillus sp., Lysinibacillus sp., and Pseudomonas sp. Overall, the microbial inducers we investigated could be a good alternative for evaluating the effects of compost solutions in soil–plant systems. In both soil types, the total chlorophyll content of compost tea-treated pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) had increased as a result of compost tea. D1 is recommended for Arenosol and, D2 for slightly humous Arenosol soil.
Due to the intensification of the poultry sector, poultry manure is being produced in increasing quantities, and its on-site management is becoming a critical problem. Animal health problems can be solved by stricter the veterinary and environmental standards. The off-site coupled industrial chicken manure recycling technology (Hosoya compost tea) fundamentally affects the agricultural value of new organic-based products. Due to the limited information available on manure recycling technology-related microbiological changes, this was examined in this study. A pot experiment with a pepper test plant was set up, using two different soils (Arenosol, slightly humous Arenosol) and two different doses (irrigation once a week with 40 mL of compost tea: dose 1, D1; irrigation twice a week with 40 mL of compost tea: dose 2, D2) of compost tea. Compost tea raw materials, compost tea, and compost tea treated soils were tested. The products (granulated manure, compost tea) and their effects were characterized by the following parameters: aerobic bacterial count (log CFU/g), fluorescein diacetate activity (3′,6′-diacetylfluorescein, FDA, µg Fl/g soil), glucosidase enzyme activity (GlA; PNP/µmol/g), and identification of microorganisms in compost tea with matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Furthermore, we aimed to investigate how the microbiological indicators tested, and the effect of compost tea on the tested plant, could be interpreted. Based on our results, the microbiological characteristics of the treated soils showed an increase in enzyme activity, in the case of FDA an increase +0.26 μg Fl/g soil at D1, while the GlA increased +1.28 PNP/µmol/g with slightly humous Arenosol soil and increased +2.44 PNP/µmol/g at D1; and the aerobic bacterial count increased +0.15 log CFU/g at D2, +0.35 log CFU/g with slightly humous Arenosol and +0.85 log CFU/g at W8. MALDI-TOF MS results showed that the dominant bacterial genera analyzed were Bacillus sp., Lysinibacillus sp., and Pseudomonas sp. Overall, the microbial inducers we investigated could be a good alternative for evaluating the effects of compost solutions in soil–plant systems. In both soil types, the total chlorophyll content of compost tea-treated pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) had increased as a result of compost tea. D1 is recommended for Arenosol and, D2 for slightly humous Arenosol soil.
This paper examines the role of social and cultural norms regarding fertility in women's HIV risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. Fertility is highly valued in most African societies, and premarital fertility is often encouraged to facilitate marriage. This incentivizes unprotected premarital sex and escalates HIV risk. I build a rich lifecycle model linking women's decisions concerning sex, fertility and education to HIV infection and calibrate it to match Kenyan data. Quantitative results show that premarital fertility motives account for 13 percent of HIV prevalence among young Kenyan women and that a combination of fertility motives and contraception cost accounts for nearly one-third of this prevalence. Various policies are evaluated. While an HIV treatment subsidy would reduce HIV prevalence to the greatest extent, its effectiveness would be severely mitigated by increased risky sex.
Northern East Asia was inhabited by modern humans as early as 40 thousand years ago (ka), as demonstrated by the Tianyuan individual. Using genome-wide data obtained from 25 individuals dated to 33.6–3.4 ka from the Amur region, we show that Tianyuan-related ancestry was widespread in northern East Asia before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At the close of the LGM stadial, the earliest northern East Asian appeared in the Amur region, and this population is basal to ancient northern East Asians. Human populations in the Amur region have maintained genetic continuity from 14 ka, and these early inhabitants represent the closest East Asian source known for Ancient Paleo-Siberians. We also observed that EDAR V370A was likely to have been elevated to high frequency after the LGM, suggesting the possible timing for its selection. This study provides a deep look into the population dynamics of northern East Asia.
Economic historians have recently treated Islamic institutions as “growth retarding,” “averse to change,” “path dependent,” “lacking creative destruction” and “extractive” rather than “inclusive” and blamed their failure to change for the underdevelopment of the Middle East. This paper argues for a different approach to Islamic institutions which implies that they boosted economic growth. The paper explores changes in economic structures, a transition in population levels from high to low and a transition to individual property rights and provides economic indicators of growth. Articulated via Islamic law, legally sanctioned birth control and women's property rights were instrumental in assuring low fertility rates and equitable and well‐distributed income in the population. The paper concludes theoretically and empirically that Islamic institutions were innovative, amenable to change and efficient.
Colony and empire, colonialism and imperialism, are often treated as synonyms . This can be acceptable for many purposes. But there may be also good reasons to distinguish between them. This article considers in detail one important attempt in that direction by the classicist Moses Finley. It argues that there is considerable strength in that approach, putting the stress as it does on the distinctiveness of the settler community. It is also valuable in suggesting that early-modern Western colonialism marked a new departure in an older history of imperialism, thus once again suggesting the need for a conceptual separation of the two. But the article concludes that ultimately more may be lost than gained by insisting on the distinction. In particular, it inhibits wide-ranging comparisons between ancient and modern, and Western and non-Western, empires, which can often suggest illuminating connections and parallels. The field of empire studies gains by drawing on the rich store of examples provided by the whole history of empire, from the earliest times to now. Western colonialism is part of that story; to separate it out is to impoverish the field.
Physical Education and Health Global Perspectives and Best Practice
Sagamore Publishing 2014, edited by
Ming-Kai Chin
Christopher R. Edginton
This thesis is a micro-demographic analysis of human fertility from Chinese genealogies in the Ming (1368-1644) and Qing (1644-1911) dynasties. It exploits a new genealogical dataset comprising 72,861 individuals from six lineages to account for the fertility decisions taken in Chinese families. Following the comprehensive micro-level analyses of a small population, the thesis demonstrates the main features at an individual level of the fertility patterns and the relationships between demographic outcomes and social outcomes in imperial China. This thesis consists of three substantive chapters. The first constructs the marital fertility levels and provides the ongoing debate with quantitative evidence on whether the Chinese consciously practised fertility controls in the pre-modern era. The second substantive chapter shows the social gradients in fertility and examines the mechanisms through which social status affected fertility. The third expands the reproductive success story of a single generation into a multi-generational one, focusing on the process of transmitting fertility choices across generations and the effects of family size on the quality of the children. The three chapters together exhibit the micro-demographic dynamics in Chinese families from the fourteenth to the twentieth centuries. The thesis shows that Ming-Qing China had a moderate fertility level, with no deliberate fertility controls. Throughout the entire period, climbing up the social ladder could significantly increase men’s net reproduction through increasing their marriage chances and the number of marriages they could have. Moreover, elites in traditional China also managed to transmit reproductive success to their offspring, mainly by passing on their high social outcomes. Family size could also affect the quality of the offspring, but the effect was not powerful enough to bring about any change in parents’ fertility choices.
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